Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Sat Sep 21 2002 12:48 PM
The Basin

Hurricane Isidore
Located at 22N 86W at 15Z and moving west at 6 knots. Sustained wind of 100 knots and central pressure down to 955mb. Yesterday evening an upper level low to the west of the hurricane blocked the westward progress of Isidore for awhile, however late last night the upper low began to dig to the southeast and this opened up the door for Isidore to continue its westward jaunt. Isidore is beginning to show some classic structure and should reach Cat IV this weekend. It should present quite an image with a 'stadium' eye. Don't think that it will hit the Yucatan, but it will certainly give them a rough weekend - not the best time to be on a Western Caribbean cruise! A strong trough moves down from the northwest in three to four days and current thinking is that Isidore will be 'captured' and nudged off to the north and northeast by mid-week. Just how much 'north' then 'northeast' depends a lot on how deep the trough amplifies in the Gulf. If the trough misses the hurricane, Texas and Louisiana could be in trouble. If the trough captures the storm, anybody east of 90W needs to pay close attention . Assuming a north and then northeast motion, the storm will slowly weaken - primarily associated with southerly shear ahead of the trough. I'd still expect a hurricane strength at landfall though (wherever that ends up being) - and probably a strong one at that.

Subtropical Storm Kyle
Located near 31N 51.5W at 15Z and moving north at 6 knots. Sustained wind of 40 knots and an estimated central pressure of 1007mb. Not going anywhere in a hurry and should soon lose the subtropical classification. Development to a hurricane likely over the next couple of days. A building ridge to the north of the storm should force a movement to the west southwest. This one could become a 'sleeper' and get interesting. Long range patterns indicate that the ridge may hold for awhile and really force this developing hurricane quite a bit to the west or southwest. I'm not fully convinced yet that this scenario will play out, but if I lived in the Northeast, I'd check on Kyle from time to time. (Ever hear of Saxby's Gale - how about the 'Storm of the Century'? The next occurrence of that uncommon astronomical alignment is due on October 6th - its just theory, but interesting reading - Weatherwise magazine).

Invest 92L
Located at 10.5N 43.5W at 12Z and moving west (280) at 10 knots. Sustained winds of 25 knots and a low-level circulation with an estimated central pressure of 1009mb. Very likely to soon be our next Tropical Depression with development to Tropical Storm status (Lili) in a couple of days. Will pose a mid-week threat to the northern Caribbean Islands. Still unsure about eventual hurricane status with this one, but if it makes it into the northern islands it could eventually pose a threat to the southeast - could end up with three systems all raisin' a fuss somewhere at just about the same time.

The Board
Sorry that I haven't been able to post until now - it has been a busy week. I've been sneaking glances at the site from time to time and catching most of the posts . At one time I was behind by about 550 posts - you guys and gals have been busy!!! - (about equal to my email at work ) The posts have been fantastic - thanks to all of you! Someday I'll have to let you know just how much you DO contribute to the growing knowledge of tropical systems and their evolution - but I'll save that for a separate post when things are a little quieter. The links have been very useful and the shared knowledge is priceless. Don't be afraid to post just because you might be new at this. Its a great place to share your experiences and get answers to your questions.

(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 22 2002 09:46 AM
Isidore NE movement/shear

Hey Ed:
If Isidore ever does turn NE, the shear would obviously be comming out of the SW. Howeve, since Isidore would be traveling with the shear vs. being against the shear. I'd have to think the shear wouldn't phase Isidore much given that situation.


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