Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Thu Sep 26 2002 11:36 PM
Lili, Kyle and ?

Its late and I'm tired (we all are) so this will be short. Lili is far from dead - currently refiring nicely. Lili maintained a vigorous circulation all day so I was surprised when even the TD status was dropped. I'd expect Lili to soon start a more northwesterly motion and eventually enter the GOM. Kyle - the wildcard! He will weaken for a day or two, but don't think that the shear will be as strong as predicted. Would you believe Kyle hanging out near 25N in five days? - I would. Kyle should eventually reintensify. Isidore could provide quite a reinforcement to the ridge to his northwest when she pulls off to the northeast as a powerful extratropical system. Wave exiting the west African coast looks pretty good - and it has a circulation. Cape Verde season is running late. Give this system about a week (maybe less) and we'll have another Invest to watch. I suspect that Marco will arrive before this season wraps up.

Fri Sep 27 2002 12:12 AM
Re: Lili, Kyle and ?

hey ed, notice how the westpac got really quiet early this month? there are a couple going out there now, thinking that maybe if mjo is driving this crazy train.. that its about to pass on by. the downtime period over there was 20-25 days.. so when the basin shuts off, going to try a little experiment.. count it down and see if we get another burst when it comes back around. of course NAO switching phases and the effect of el niņo will have on the late season (have noticed basin shear increasing in the last few days).. are probably going to wreck my idea.. but im betting that some time near the middle or end of october we'll get another hit of maybe a couple of storms at once.
HF 0414z27september

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