CFHC
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| Wed May 15 2002 01:53 PM |
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Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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May 15th is the first day of the eastern Pacific hurricane season, which 15 days before the Atlantic one.
Activity in the Pacific many years seems inversly related to the Atlantic. (If the Pacific is super busy, the Atlantic is a dud, and vice versa). However some of the past several years, that's been wrong. An average Pacific season includes 15 named storms, with 9 hurricanes.
The eastern pacific basin includes any storms that form in the Northeast Pacific Ocean east of 140oW.
This year's Eastern Pacific Storm names are:
Alma, Boris, Christina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevive, Hernan, Iselle, Julio, Kenna, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odile, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, Zeke
Most Pacific storms don't threaten land, although the ones that do usually effect Mexico or islands off its coast. Sometimes the storms will near California (but rapidly weaken because of colder water) and bring rain to the Southwest.. Occasionally storms will work its way close to Hawaii and become Central Pacific Storms. Western Pacific storms are called Typhoons, and Southern Hemisphere Storms in the Indian ocean are usually referred to as just Tropical Cyclones. (Northern coast of Australia has to deal with them... luckily most of that part of Australia isn't populated.)
Last year Hurricane Adolf made it to category 4 status in the early season on May 28th. Which is very unsual for the Eastern Pacific. I doubt will see a repeat of that this year, but if you are "pining for something to track" the eastern Pacific is the spot to watch right now.
We focus squarely on Atlantic systems on flhurricane.com, and only mention Pacific ones in passing (with the notible exception if they threaten Hawaii). Typhoons and Cyclones aren't covered at all. We have limited time and focus on what we know.
Today there is nothing going on in the Atlantic or Pacific really of note tropically.
- [mac]
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed May 15 2002 09:55 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Hellow all, this is a test to see if it works
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu May 16 2002 05:07 PM |
Rain Possibly...
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Looking at the following links:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
It looks like Florida may get some of the Thunderstorm activity happening down in the Carribean.
Still NO real rain at the Beach, the Banana River is down, and anything that the sprinkler misses is dead.
Still the big question out there is what is going to happen in 15 days when there is no El Nino???
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu May 16 2002 06:34 PM |
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Re: Rain Possibly...
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Dave,
I think those are mostly high clouds on the bottom link, but there is an interesting twist to the formation coming up over Central America. I think the shear would prevent anything from developing, but there definitely appears to be some circulation over C.A.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu May 16 2002 09:27 PM |
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Re: Rain Possibly...
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Get the feeling a low pressure area may develop in the Florida Straits and move slowly towards the Bahamas. Steve H. NWS Melbourne is alluding to this increasing ne winds. AVN/MRF show area of low pesure as well. HMMMMM. FROPA ON TAP FOR SUN. THE AVN HAS SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN SLIGHTLY TO
AN AFTERNOON FROPA ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION NOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR
CONVECTION WITH THE FROPA. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...THERE IS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST TROF WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAY HAVE SOME UPR
DYNAMICS TO PLAY WITH...MAKING THINGS MORE INTERESTING.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 16 2002 11:18 PM |
Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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It has finally rained. And it came down in buckets for half hour. This a very good thing since Pinellas county was the driest county east of the Mississippi rive. With a 30 to 40% chance of rain thru the weekend. With better yet to come over the next 3 to 5 weeks as typical afternoon storms start to fire along the seabreezes.
| Joe |
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| Thu May 16 2002 11:18 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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It has finally rained. And it came down in buckets for half hour. This a very good thing since Pinellas county was the driest county east of the Mississippi river. With a 30 to 40% chance of rain thru the weekend. With better yet to come over the next 3 to 5 weeks as typical afternoon storms start to fire along the seabreezes.
| Steve |
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| Thu May 16 2002 11:32 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Hey Joe,
You can say that again
Steve
| Kevin |
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| Fri May 17 2002 02:28 AM |
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It look like rain is coming for Central Florida.
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A 50% chance of rain tommorrow, a 40-50% chance Saturday and a 50-60% chance on Sunday. Good upper level support could fire up some pretty strong storms, especially tommorrow and Sunday.
Let's see here...15 tropical storms on the wall, 15 tropical storms on the wall take on pass it around...and well, you know the drill.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 17 2002 03:09 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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poured here at 5:30 Microburst 3 inches in a half an hour !!!!!! Much nneded here in Pinellas Cty.
| jth |
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| Fri May 17 2002 01:05 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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That is a very interesting blob off the coast of central america this orning. It actually looks to have a little spin to it.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 17 2002 02:41 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Yep, looks like the first 'blob' of the season, a bit early...seems mostly stationary , with a 50/50 as to whether it goes north, or west into the EPAC.
IHS,
Bill
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 17 2002 02:51 PM |
Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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check out Bastardi's article today. Looks like this site may start to get very active shortly.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 17 2002 03:25 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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PLEase post link for Bastardi.
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MikeC
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| Fri May 17 2002 03:35 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=meteo&type=jbs
for bastardi
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 17 2002 03:41 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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I just finished reading it too. I was going to post the link, but I see it's already out there. Thanks MikeC. This is very interesting and proves that >>>I<<< am the ultimate forecaster on this site if something gets cooking. I would only be 2 weeks only! Muhahahahahaha!
Time to go look at the European and MRF. Since it was initially thought that FL would be an early season target - and things are trending further west - I might just be in for an interesting next week!
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 17 2002 04:33 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Man. I figured this place would be buzzing like a beehive, but I guess the word on a potential pre-season storm hasn't made its rounds yet. I checked out a bunch of models, but didn't really see anything one way or another. One model MM5, had a 1008 low off of the keys in 96 hours then 1004 over Cuba in 120. NOGAPS showed rain off the TX coast in 96. ETA had some convection in the Central Gulf in 48 hours. NGM had a "circle" over Cuba in 48 hours. Obviously the lack of model definition has something to do with a front that isn't even down to LA yet. I suppose they'll come around if the front ends up in the central GoM and sits for a day or two.
Steve
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 17 2002 05:00 PM |
Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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If something does pop up in the GOM next week,does anyone have any idea where it might go?What exactly is the time frame for this?
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 17 2002 06:24 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Looks like you are finally getting some pretty good rain in Houston.
| Joe |
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| Fri May 17 2002 07:45 PM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Showers and thunderstorms are developing over FL. Although steering winds are out of the west and southwest and expected to become stronger. So a strong sea breeze collision will occur over the interior and push back towards the east coast. west coast especially near coast will probably stay dry today unlike yesterday. But some widely scattered showers tonight are possible and especially sat/sun as front/and good dynamics come together with some hopefully widespread rains.
| ShawnS |
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| Sat May 18 2002 12:05 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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I wonder if this site will have a bunch of activity on it starting tonight and through the weekend due to what may happen in the GOM next week?!?! Does anyone think that we could actually have something to watch or will this be just a bunch of hype?
| Steve |
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| Sat May 18 2002 12:12 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Hey Shawn,
I dunno. I'm not much of a 'patern recognition' expert
. But the idea of a cold front sitting in the gulf for a day or two over very warm water could easily get something going. I didn't seen anything to be overly concerned in the models except in the European which puts a 1012 or lower low in the central gulf on Tuesday morning. Perhaps the 12Z runs (which should be run in the next few minutes) might offer more clues, but even the "Tropical Genesis Potential" site doesn't show anything at all.
I'm out of pocket on Mon. and Tuesday. I gotta do some recon around Southern LA, so hopefully nothing gets cooking until sometime Tuesday night so I can watch it.
What do you think?
Steve
| Steve |
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| Sat May 18 2002 12:16 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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A little comedy:
>>000
ABNT20 KNHC 010244
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA...LOCATED ABOUT 605 MILES EAST OF
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF THE 2001 HURRICANE SEASON. THIS
PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...WILL RESUME ON JUNE 1 2002.
FORECASTER PASCH
| Joe |
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| Sat May 18 2002 01:06 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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I'am not to concerned yet considering models are showing little in the way of development. I would rather wait and see what future model runs paint. But at least theres something to talk about.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat May 18 2002 02:17 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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New EC shows low pressure (1000 mb) that moved due north from the Yucatan to the mouth of the Mississippi. Still is interesting if only because the EC shows it two runs in a row. It shows day 6 in the S. Central GOM and day 7 near New Orleans. Cheers!!
| Steve |
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| Sat May 18 2002 04:05 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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Thanks x and CHEERS!! to you as well. Unfortunately that's 6 DAYS instead of 6 HOURS. I don't know statistics for 6 days, but it's gotta be 700 miles if at all in 6 days.(?) But I'd love to see some early tropical action. Often in the transitional months of June and October, low pressure in the Gulf latitudes can be very slow moving even if not classified as tropical.
New Orleans and Jefferson Parish are pretty well prepared for a Cat-1, Cat-2 or fast moving Cat-3. But the one thing we can't handle is torrential rainfall often found in tropical storms and depressions (Frances (97 or 98) was the most recent flood event). If it deluges early, we get swamped.
I think the city's got the drainage pretty close to 1.5-2" in the first hour then almost an inch per hour thereafter (it used to be 1", .5"). Jefferson Parish (East Bank) has improved and is pretty close to New Orleans. As everyone knows, we're in a bowl that goes down to -5' sea level. So when the water starts filling up, you have to electronically pump it out. And if the Lake Pontchartrain is high at that particular time, the city becomes a giant wading pool.
My house is on the Metairie Ridge, so the property is about 3' above sea level. It is also raised about another 3.5', so I don't mind the streets flooding if I've got some cold beer to watch it.
2002 just might be the most interesting season in years. Talk to me Colleen
Peace,
Steve
| Steve |
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| Sat May 18 2002 04:23 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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If the link works, here is the EC days 1-7
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 18 2002 11:22 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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That area in the Gulf looks very suspicious this morning. Any thoughts this morning?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 18 2002 01:10 PM |
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Re: Suspicious GOMEX area.
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Well the area off of the southern Texas Coast/Eastern Mexico looks really loaded with convection, but I don't see any real signs of a circulation yet. Atmosphere is quite moist, one ingredient needed to fire a TC up. The sheer values are what could stop this system from developing. Although I haven't looked at the sheer map yet this morning, I'll bet it's high. Persistence will also be needed (24-30 hours of sustained convection w/development of at least a mid-level circulation). I wonder if NHC is even paying attention to this area?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 18 2002 02:40 PM |
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Re: Suspicious GOMEX area.
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The TCEP or one of those government acronyms mentioned it yesterday in a discussion/forecast. It's supposed to go out to Cuba in 48 hours or so. They said possible MCC. But I don't think this is the source for what the Euro is saying is going to hit me in 7 days. That's something coming out of the southern Gulf after the shear relaxes in 36-48 hours. It will be interesting to see if today's Euros are still locked onto the same thing.
Steve
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat May 18 2002 07:34 PM |
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About the models.
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Even though it's certainly possible soemthing could be triggered in the GOMEX in the next several days (not necessarily the system in it right now, either) but from another tail end of a front or a future area of disturbed weather in the western Carribbean. About what the Euro has progged over you in a whole week, well, don't count on it. That's like trying to forecast how many raindrops are going to fall out of a thunderstorm. It is becoming quite obvious, however, that the W. Carribbean/GOMEX will be early season "must watch" areas.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat May 18 2002 08:29 PM |
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Re: About the models.
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http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/deterministic/world/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!12!pop!od!oper!public_plots!latest!!step/
here is a more detailed look at thhat model run
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 18 2002 09:43 PM |
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Things are looking fired up.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
It certainly looks like Florida will finally get some wet stuff.
Beautiful day here at the Beach, NO rain strong breeze out of the SW
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 19 2002 12:07 AM |
Re: Suspicious GOMEX area.
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I don't see anything out in the GOM that is even worth watching much less something that will develop.I think this could be the same as last year when the models were off on everything.All of the convection is gone and I don't see it coming back.Could there be something else that was suppose to cause a low to form out there?
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 19 2002 12:18 AM |
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Re: Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Starts Today
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NWS Melbourne did mention in their discussion the possibility of a low pressure in western Caribbean. Although they say it would stay south as a building high pressure moves south. So don't think this will be a major problem.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 19 2002 12:33 AM |
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Kevin & ShawnS...
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Kevin,
That's pretty much what I said in my post. 6 or 7 days out is almost impossible to forecast.
Shawn,
Did you click that link to the ECMWF or the more detailed link? If you watch it, none of the convection associated with the rain you got Thursday and what I got Friday is involved with the 'new system.' That stuff continues on toward Cuba and heads out to the ocean.
This one comes decidedly from far South as a response to the front over the warm gulf. If it ever develops, my money is on a hybrid type storm. I'm eager to see what tonight's European model has to say. If it shows the same thing again, things might get interesting for late week somewhere along the NC Gulf Coast. I'm pretty sure it was the ECMWF that saw Allison and Barry and the early, unamed storm last year.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun May 19 2002 12:37 AM |
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European Model update...
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The new runs are nothing like the old runs. There is now a low runing up the SE coast then heading out to sea. If anything, all that does it kick up some nice swells for the surfers on the East Coast of Florida. Enjoy.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun May 19 2002 01:01 AM |
Re: European Model update...
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So the bottom line....NOTHING!! I hate it when you think there might be something and then there's nothing.Well, I guess we're not suppose to have anything anyway considering it's not even June 1 yet.
| Steve |
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| Sun May 19 2002 02:25 AM |
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Re: European Model update...
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Hey Anonymous. I'll leave you with this part of the Bastardi thread from today. It'll cheer you up a bit:
I am leaving on yesterdays discussion as the ideas outlined as to what questions will have to be answered about the possibility of tropical problems from the gulf are still be raised by the models and more importantly by the pattern we are in this morning. Again the MRF is later than the european, but it is of some interest that both go toward the idea outlined for possible early season mischief again this year, that was put forth before the modelling saw it. That does not mean it has to happen, it does mean in the general sense I may be on to something as where this pattern is going. This mornings MRF out at days 12-15 show the trof backing further and in the lakes and Ohio valley as the summer pattern slowly evolves. It is my contention at this time that is will pull back a bit further. than that for the core of the summer.
This means the spectre of drought from west and central Texas for the summer back into the southern and central Rockies, perhaps spreading into the northern plains. It also means that the southeast had better hope the next month is wet, and of course that would mean trying to get help out of the tropics, be it storm or return moisture, but that is talked about below.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Either this means we're in for a cool summer or if we don't get the rain we need early, something's going to supply it later.
Some food for thought.
Steve
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 19 2002 03:37 AM |
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Re: European Model update...
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If the low was suppose to form off of the front that passed through here than I think that has gone by the boards.That front I think has already pretty much made it through the entire gulf;it doesn't look like it stalled like it was suppose to.I think that makes the models off already.