CFHC
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| Mon Jul 15 2002 03:48 PM |
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Tropical Storm Arthur Forms in Atlantic
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July 15, 2002 at 11AM is when the first named storm of the season formed. Tropical Storm Authur, formed from Tropical Depression one in the Atlantic. It'll get a little more chance to live before moving north and becoming extratropical.
This is another quick update. Elsewhere, nothing much is going on.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 04:07 PM |
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From the No Spin Zone...
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>>Of course 96L could always emerge with some energy out in front of the trof and develop into something minor or subtropical in the Atlantic. So I don't want to miss out on being right if one of these ends up popping, but I guess I'll play it a little safer and say August 11, 2002 - one month from yesterday.
Ha! I was right, and I was wrong. I took the easy way out and failed again! No spin here, I blew it! Arthur is just going to pad the season totals. He's inconsequential other than that he was a system of Gulf origin which at least says there's action this way in 2002.
Steve
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 04:19 PM |
Re: From the No Spin Zone...
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well, I said that it would be July 20th, so I wasn't that far off. I might still get one on the 20th though.. What are the chances that Arthur circles around and heads back towards land? Ant thoughts about that happening?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 15 2002 05:33 PM |
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circleback?
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gary.. somewhere between zero and negative twenty. upper system digs down off the coast of maine and rockets the system north in a day or two.
read bastardi today, amusing. he says that the pattern we go into in ten days or so will be hot in the east, and could also have us rigged for tropical systems to come calling.
he also talked about an upper feature in the hudson bay locking in position to get the atlantic cranking... that one i've got to learn. so i can make a better guess at the first storm next year.
HF aikenSC 1520z15july
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 05:38 PM |
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Re: circleback?
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Yeah, I knew it was far-fetched. Figured it would be good to laugh about though.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 05:59 PM |
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Re: circleback?
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Far Fetched, yes but it has been known to happen. I remember one in the mid 80s' that moved back and forth several times along our coast. headed towards New Orleans than went east toward Tampa then back west then back east and finally went ashore (i think) around Cedar Key. I think it was Juan. Anyone else remember this one?
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 06:05 PM |
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Re: circleback?
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It went ashore in La. My Bad. That was a long time ago.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 15 2002 06:12 PM |
Re: From the No Spin Zone...
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Gary C: As for Arthur coming back towards land, well, the chances aren't that great for that. Less than 2% I'd say. It's been picked up by the trough and it will keep moving east to northeasterly until it dies.
It was intersting about what HankFrank posted last night about a storm forming in mid-July. He said the only other years something like this happened was in 1961 and 1985. We may be onto something here that could really un-lock the keys to this hurricane season. I'd like to say that 1961 is most likely not an analog for this year. Hurricane Anna developed on the 20th of July and went through the Caribbean. It also became a category three with winds in excess of 115MPh. The conditions have not been favorable this year in the Caribbean. That the early season conditions in the Caribbean were favorable, making it just the opposite of this year. 1961 was one of Gray's analogs in December, but it was taken off due to cooler than normal Atlanic SSTA's. There were SIX major hurricanes that year, and I think all of them were in the Atlantic. That most likely won't happen this year, thus, 1961 isn't a very good analog for this hurricane season. 1985, however, is a different story...
First of all, look at these archived SSTA maps for 1985.
July 1985:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/July.85.anomaly.gif
August 1985:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/August.85.anomaly.gif
September 1985:
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/September.85.anomaly.gif
Notice how marginal the Atlantic SSTA's are? Looks fairly similar to this year, if not cooler. In fact, the GOMEX SSTA's have been much higher this year than in 1985. The Atlantic SSTA's have been about even with 1985's anomalies. Another issue is ENSO. First of all, 1985 had a weak La Nina, and this year will have a weak El Nino. Although this year's ENSO and 1985's ENSO are opposite, THE FACT STANDS THAT WEAK LA NINA'S AND WEAK EL NINO'S DON'T HAVE SIGINIFICANT EFFECT ON HURRICANE ACTIVITY!
Now lets go to the tracking maps:
1985 Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic:
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1985/index.html
Notice the activity numbers:
11 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 intense hurricanes
This type of activity looks to be about what the Atlantic will see this year! And since we've had below normal SSTA's in the Atlantic this year, many have predicted below normal hurricane activity from the Cape Verde region. What was the hurricane activity like for the Cape Verde storms in 1985? Well, there was only ONE Cape Verde storm that year. It was Gloria, and it effected the East Coast as a category two hurricane. The rest of the activity was in the western Atlantic and GOMEX. Let's take a look at all of the U.S. hits that year:
Bob (Hurricane, cat. 1) Florida and South Carolina
Danny (Hurricane, cat. 1) Louisiana
Elena (Hurricane, cat. 3) effected entire eastern and northern GOMEX, made landfall in Louisiana/Mississippi
Glorida (Hurricane, cat. 4) effected most of mid-upper Atlantic coast as a cat. 2. It may have been a threat the southeast U.S. at one time. Can anybody confirm this?
Henri (TS) hit the northeast coast as a weakening TD.
Isabel (TS) brushed Florida/Georgia as a weakening TS/TD.
Juan (Hurricane, cat. 1) Made landfall in Louisiana as a cat. 1, then it went back out over water and made landfall again as a TS near Pensacola, Florida.
Kate (hurricane, cat. 3) made landfall near Appalachacola, Florida as a cat. 2 hurricane.
So, there were 11 storms that year. Here are the U.S. landfall percentages for 1985:
11 named storms (73% made landfall in the U.S.)
7 hurricanes (86% made landfall in the U.S.)
3 intense hurricanes (33% made a U.S. landfall)
So as you can see, the majority of 1985's storms made a U.S. landfall. Bastardi also said 1985 may be an analog to this year.
I would like to thank HankFrank for pointing this out last night.
There is also another impressive African wave this morning just emerging off of Africa.
Thoughts and comments needed.
Kevin
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 06:29 PM |
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The post above was from me...I forgot to login AGAIN! n/t
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| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 06:44 PM |
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Re: From the No Spin Zone...
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After checking the links in your post the hurricane that went back and forth was Elena in 1985. I must be getting old and losing it. Good post Kevin.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 15 2002 07:54 PM |
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thoughts and comments
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i'm not sure what to think about 1985 as an analog. i see likenesses and differences. sure el nino changes from year to year, but hurricanes tend to go in larger, decadal type cycles as well. the numbers of storms we've seen in the past seven seasons are insane compared to the numbers in the 80s. so maybe there are some similarities to that year, but the earth as a whole has changed, oscillated. the idea i've got out of this can best be compared to something bastardi brings up.. the same weather pattern one season gives very different results in another.
anyhow to specific things that floated into my mind about 1985.. heat and cold. i know from looks at extreme weather patterns that there was a lot that year.. in january the coldest temperatures of the century were felt in some parts of the east (it got to four below zero in this town, for instance), and similar weather came to the interior west a couple weeks later (utah's all time record low fell in this spell). in the summer, strangely, utah's all time record high came in july. the weather pattern was extreme, ya see.. we havent been quite that extreme, although i have to admit its been very hot out west lately. also, florida had a record heat wave in early june of that year. later in 1985, in the fall, two hurricanes hit the gulf coast.. juan at the end of october, and kate.. with a track that doesnt look like it could happen in mid november. apparently that year there was a lingering indian summer ridge in the east. although it's next year, i do recall that in 1986 the extreme pattern continued.. extreme cold in florida in january (remember the challenger?) and then a very hot spring and summer here in the southeast in '86 (from my climo records.. here in aiken we got our latest recorded freeze on april 25th, followed by making the state record high for april of 99, only three days later). in terms of the amplitude of systems, how intensely hot or cold it got, i see some comparison, as we've had bursts of heat and cold in the east and a cold spring to hot summer out west. there are lots of possible signals that could be fed off of, and i'm not sure which ones to go with. years of drought in the southeast are piling up, we are making a run to top the drought of the 1950s. recent years of upswing tropical activity have provided surprisingly few hits.. like the active early 1950s that had years where several storms hit and others where hardly anything did.
another thing about 1985.. the percentage of storms to u.s. hits..has to be a statistical fluke. sort of like dimaggio hitting safely in 56 games.. a record made not to be broken.
there are just all sorts of factors to look at that its hard to pick from all the possible outcomes. what im going with mostly is bastardi, and his talk about how the atlantic ridge becomes dominant late in the summer, how el nino is a weak to non player, and how the trough splitting pattern is trying to continue.
anyhow this is a lot of information i've just written and nothing to tie it all together. if there's anything worth discussing right now, it's probably this sort of stuff. are we in a year where decadal long cycles will give us more storms, el nino wont squash them, and a trough splitting pattern will let some of them get through to the coast? or will a late summer pattern with a dominant ridge near the east coast steer them in?
for years we've been watching lots of big storms threaten and never come in, or come in weakened. every year we wonder when things will change to where they historically have been.. when the next period of heavy activity like the 40s through 60s will kick off.
like years past, i'm looking at the signals from the weather pattern, wondering if this will be the year. just dont know. every year, cat 4 floyd just keeps turning north and going to wilmington as a cat 2.. ya know, its a good thing. but it cant go on forever.
HanKFranK aikenSC 1940z15july
word count 12million (sorry)
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 09:11 PM |
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Arthur at 5 PM
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60 MPh, 998 mbs central pressure. I believe a hurricane could form, and Stacy Stewart said an eye-like feature could form in 48 hours or so. It will have to be quick.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 09:42 PM |
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Re: The post above was from me...I forgot to login AGAIN! n/t
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Great post Kevin , Analog year !!! I would like to think of it as Digital hehehe . ANywho, How bout dat arthur ??
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 15 2002 09:44 PM |
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Re: circleback?
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That would be 1985's Elena. However, there was no Florida landfall. The storm came within 50 miles of Cedar Key and stalled for over 24 hours before turning back WNW and making landfall on the Mississippi Coast w/ 125 MPH winds.
I remember it well, since I was celebrating my 1yr wedding anniversary and got evacuated from the Tampa Bay area at 1AM!)
Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 09:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forms in Atlantic
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Arthur will be the Europe's problem very soon!
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 10:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forms in Atlantic
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Nope, i think Arthur will be Newfoundlands problem... this is one that is not likely to affect us this side of the pond!
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 10:28 PM |
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Found this amusing...
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Forecaster Stewart has this to say about the system in the North East Pacific:
"FOR SUCH A PRETTY NAME...CRISTINA HAS BEEN AN UGLY STORM
ha ha ha
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 15 2002 11:15 PM |
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Re: Found this amusing...
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That storm share looks like nothing!!!. As for are new tropical storm thats looking very good. Think hurricane.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 12:50 AM |
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Re: circleback?
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Hey Lou , I remember Elena too. I stayed and helped my neihbors , and rode the storm out .
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 16 2002 01:44 AM |
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western gulf
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you know how all these trough splits have been backing into texas and stalling.. how the thunderstorm complexes look like they would become instant tropical systems if they were over water? well, ive noticed this current one seems to be slipping back to the NE a little.. and with a somewhat active tropical wave coming in from the SE.. makes me wonder. for all the tropical rain that texas has had driven into it.. one of these things should develop eventually.
reread bastardi.. its the arctic vortex going into its late summer position.. NW of the hudson bay, making the easterly flow in the deep tropics (and the itcz) shift north a bit, start spitting out systems. some of the models are putting that thing up there in a week and a half, or two. wonder if the basin will light up when that happens?
big hmmm.. want to see how this turns out.
HF aikenSC 0131z16july
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 03:15 AM |
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No hurricane Arthur.
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The system has failed to develop an eye and winds are just 10 kts. shy of hurricane intensity. Oh well...Newfoundland better brace itself anyways. They have one hell of a storm coming...tropical or not...it's Newfoundland or bust for Arthur.
The next storm should form between July 23 and August 5th. The Gulf of Mexico maybe the area for the action this time. Perhaps a trough split over Texas with the convection moving over water and developing. Just a prediction. I'm serioius about the timeframe, though.
Kevin
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 04:02 AM |
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Re: No hurricane Arthur.
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All I know is that we have a heatwave on the way. Mid-upper 90's for most of the rest of the week. The Gulf is already reportedly 87 degrees here (TWC & WWL). We're getting a surface high and then an upper high as well. That should quiet things down as the ridge slips westward across the Gulf. Unfortunately all my suits are wool blends and I have to walk through concrete hell to get to my parking lot.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 04:34 PM |
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For all the Northern GC'ers from Morgan City to Panama City...
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Go watch Bastardi's tropical update today. He has put forth a theory which he briefly illustrates how 2002's recurvatures and potential landfalls may be further north and west from 2001's. He drew a line from N FL to Lake Pontchartrain and said, "We'll see how all that plays out down the line."
On a day when there isn't a whole lot going on, it's probably worth a look.
Steve
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 05:35 PM |
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Arthur the rocket...
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Well Arthur certainly seems in a hurry to get to Newfoundland, with forward motion at near 40 mph! Quite a pace. Looks set to hit Newfoundland tonight with heavy rains and sustained winds of 50 to 55 kntos / 60 to 65 mph, as an extratropical storm. He will also probably dump quite a bit of rain, especially anywhere east of his centre.
Cristina in the NE Pacific is still subject of advisories, despite being devoid of convection for over 36 hours! The centre is still spiing away quite merrily.
Anyway, just wanted to post about Arthur as the board seems quite quiet.
Rich B
StormWarn2000 I.W.N.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 05:37 PM |
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Re: circleback?
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Elena...was in my EOC for 47 hours!
IHS,
Bill
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 05:53 PM |
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Re: For all the Northern GC'ers from Morgan City to Panama City...
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Interesting!! I hope he is not correct on his theory. The stuff does come in cycles though. But you have to look at the odds also. If you are along the coast it's really not a matter of if one will hit you it is when will it hit you and how strong will it be. For all that haven't been through one now is the time to get your stuff together unless you want to stand in check out lines for several hours. They can form fast and change directions over nite.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 16 2002 06:05 PM |
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not yet extra tropical.
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looking at our storm as of now still has a low leavel center in a warm core. so I think it will stay tropical another 12 hours or so intill it hits land but i'm sure that the nhc will make it a gale center before it hits land. so it might still have its name.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 16 2002 09:06 PM |
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Re: HOT!
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It sure is going to be a hot week here in florida unless you can find some relief near beach, but still around 90 F. Northern sections of the state will top out near 100 F next couple of days with 90 to 96 degree heat rest of state.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 16 2002 10:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forms in Atlantic
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Has Mike Aderson's site ECTWC died like the tropical season so far. No updates since 06/26. I need to know whether to delete it from my favorites.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 16 2002 11:16 PM |
We'll Miss you Texas
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We'll miss you Texas, say hello to Atlantis.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 17 2002 06:22 AM |
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averages/stats
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just for kicks i counted the number of landfalling hurricane intensity storms in the u.s. back as far as the unisys records go. though i dont consider the older records wholly reliable, they show that there were significantly MORE hits than what weve been averaging over the last half decade or so from 1851 to the 1950s. the overall season average hits during the 151 year period is 1.7 hits a year, 17 a decade. the last time any decade had 17 hits was in the 1950s, ever since the number has fallen short. 14 in the 60s, 12 in the 70s, and 13 in both the 80s and 90s. compare that to 17, 21, 18, 20, 21 from the 1900s to the 1940s. about 50% more, on average. so if the number of u.s. hits WERE a reliable indicator, it would mean that either a higher percentage of storms that formed hit, or that there were just more storms overall and that not all were detected and recorded. but really, fewer hits since the advent of modern observation? is there some force field protecting the u.s.? i wish the government would tell me so i stop hearing about dynogel.
anyhow, another fluke... based on the not too convincing records going back around 150 years, the percentage of seasons without a u.s. hurricane landfall is 19.21%. so, the probability that any three consecutive years will not feature a u.s. hurricane landfall is .192^3, or a mere .71%. so a string of three consecutive years w/o a u.s. hurricane is a 141 year event, based on this figure, based on questionable data.
but since this is just any other year, ignoring the fact that the last two had no hurricane hits, there is a 19% chance that no hurricanes hit.
in other words, if a hurricane doesnt hit this year, it would be a weird, rare event.
we are just so overdue, in so many ways. unless something has fundamentally changed about the climate, u.s. hurricanes are becoming less common.
north carolina is about the only place in the u.s. making par for the average lately.. it is slightly to well below almost everywhere else on the east/gulf coasts.
HanKFranK aikenSC 0609z17july
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jul 17 2002 10:15 AM |
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Forecast
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How true {HF] on those 150 year, land fall stats. I think that this year will see a hurricane hit the u.s, and a few tropical storms. As for the atlantic not anything are tropical storm is gone. That storm last lease than 2 days and top winds of 60 mph. Nothing else than a few thunderstorms. Pacific there is a tropical low that might turn in to the next one. In there one and the central pacific may form too. so not that boring after all !!! Counting the western pacific this is a powerful looking typhoon or super typhoon. So next forecast wednesday.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jul 17 2002 01:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Arthur Forms in Atlantic
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Has anyone noticed that area off of the South Carolina-Georgia coast that blew up over night? I am very new to this, just thought it was interesting. Could it develop into anything?
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jul 17 2002 01:42 PM |
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no
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No !!!
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: no low forming.
pressure to high!!!
going to move inland to fast.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 18 2002 11:16 PM |
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Re: averages/stats
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Interesting stats. NOAA took a different approach, but with the same consensus. Since Irene (Oct 99) there have been 19 Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin without a U.S. landfall. Using past records, they compute that the likelyhood of such a drought in landfall with that many hurricanes is less than one-tenth of one percent. Therefore, anyone forecasting at least one U.S. landfalling hurricane this year is making a pretty safe forecast - the odds are sure in your favor.
Cheers,
ED