CFHC
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| Mon Aug 05 2002 02:21 AM |
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Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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Hurricane Hunter aircraft went up early to track the newly formed depression, to find... it was a Tropical Storm.
Becuase of this Tropical Storm warngings are up for Mississippi and the Southeast Louisiana Coasts.
This is the 2nd storm of the season, and the one in the atlantic may not be far behind. We'll keep watch. For now, lots of Rain along this part of the gulf coast.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 02:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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Even though I have made my opinion known about how I feel about Joe B., his Sunday Evening Late Post is very interesting. He talks about how Bertha could scrape along the coast and not loose much intensity and could even gain some strength along the way. The NHC is already going to be off on their projected track because the center is well south of New Orleans and appears to be heading almost directly west. Saying this, I expect for them to still say that it is still moving NW when the new update comes out. I do expect for Bertha to already be downgraded to a depression again at the time of the new advisory. Funny things, these tropical systems.
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 02:56 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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I'm giving up on these things. I guess I'm stupid or something because I'm not learning a darn thing. Every time I think I see something one way, it ends up being the total opposite. I really thought I knew a little more about these systems but I guess I gave myself too much credit. Sometimes I sound pretty dumb with the things I say on here. I'm going to keep my mouth shut from now on and let you all do the talking.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:05 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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Well Bertha is here so what next. Bertha will be a problem for several days along the Gulf coast. As for the next one off the southeast atlantic coast we may even have more to worry about. Upper air over the southeast US should bring a strong ridge in over the next 3-4 days allowing this system to move s-sw over time. Though some models still move this system as a Hurricane s-se to e to ne as a 95 mph storm there is some doubt about this as it may take a more s-sw-w movement into the Gulf over the next 4-6 days. So we need to watch this system and forecasts to make sure we don't get surprised.
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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I'll say it.... I think the NHC is wrong on where they say the center of Bertha is. I believe it is south of where they say it is. I was watching the New Orleans/ Baton Rouge radar and if you look very closely you can see where the wrapping of the center actually is. Where the NHC is trying to say the center is is where the storms are still heading to the NW. That would not be happening if the center was exactly where they say it is. Check it out.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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A look over models on southeast coast low shows a trough moving towards the east coast and picking this low up. New 00z Eta now also shows low being picked up by trough that's a change from earlier runs which moved it south. I don't believe east coast is out of woods yet and would watch future progs from models...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 04:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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went out to eat tonight at a restaurant located at a place called Pass Manchac, which is on the eastern shore of Lake Maurepas. The skies were clear and the lake was near calm--kind of amazing with a tropical storm only a hundred miles or so away. I guess we in SE LA will get our weather as the wet side of the storm reaches us tomorrow.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 04:18 AM |
Bertha Update
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 1200 AM EDT
CURRENT ACTIVE ATLANTIC STORMS...
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA
Slidell National Weather Service
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
National Hurricane Center
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST AND SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
Earlier, the National Hurricane Center forecasted the center of circulation to move north of New Orleans, towards Slidell, Louisiana. This would mean that the majority of the heaviest raifall would go north of the city. I forecasted the center to pass south of New Orleans. The latest track out of the NHC has shifted south. They now take the center south of the city, exactly what I forecasted earlier. This means that the heaviest rains will move over the northshore AND the city of New Orleans.
There is still some room for slight strengthening. The interaction with land could help tighten the center of circlation, if convection redevelops around the center. Now the latest infrared imagery indicated that convection is on the increase. The intensity should not change within the next 12 hours.
The center of circlation will be fairly close to the city by 3-6AM central time. That is also when the rain should begin. 4-8 inches of rainfall are likely in some isolated areas. Areas south and west of New Orleans like Houma, Louisiana shouldn't see nearly as much in the way of rainfall as areas to the north.
The next update will be at 4:00AM, including an update on current conditions.
CURRENT ACTIVE EPAC STORMS...
NO ACTIVE STORMS
FORECASTER Jason Moreland, TWWFT
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 04:20 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Bertha Forms
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Just got back from The Point @ West End on the lakefront. The waves were coming over the concrete jetties and bulkhead, spraying about 8-9 feet at times over the side. There were plenty of kids enjoying themselves, but the cops ran everyone off. It's cloudy and breezy. The wet side comes later tonight and tomorrow. They're calling for up to 8" of rain here which could cause some local flooding. Unfortunately I don't have a good enough excuse to call in sick and stay home drinking the 10 St. Pauli Girls I have left, so I'll let the wife and kids stay home and have some fun.
Shawn, you're right again. The 10pm advisory changed the course. The center of circulation will pass south of the City of New Orleans and not track across the Northshore as was previously predicted. I expect the rainfall to pick up significantly after midnight as was the trend last night. It should last throughout the day tomorrow. Everyone from Mobile to Morgan City and 65 miles north needs to bring their raincoats to work. I gotta say though, that even though I'm excited we're going to have tropical storm conditions, the last time I was this underwhelmed was for TS Hermine. LOL.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 04:22 AM |
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A plot of surface data and radar loops from New Orleans at
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10pm would seem to disagree with the NHC 10pm position. The winds at Boothville went from northeast with a falling pressure at 9pm to SE with a rising pressure at 10pm. The BURL1 buoy on the coast south of the mouth of the Mississippi has a west wind and rising pressure. The reporting station at Grand Ilse to the west of these has a north wind and is the only station in the vicinity that still has a falling pressure as as of 10pm. New orleans metro stations have NE winds with rising pressure. This would seem to indicate that the surface center is somewhere between Boothville, Grand Isle and the BURL1 bouy.
A check of the latest New Orleans radar loop also seems to show scattered light showers rotating cyclonicly in this area.
If the above is correct the surface low is probably moving off to the west slowly. It will be interesting to see if convection redevelops during the night near the surface low.
So yes Shawn what you see is probably the surface circulation just off the coast just to the west of Grand lLse. I don't think it's over for this system yet, tonight and tommorow will tell the tale. I think will will at least get wet in the Houston area later this week.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 04:27 AM |
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Hey Shawn...
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What did Bastardi say? I haven't been able to get to his site all day. I just tried again and even the link to "Meterorologist" from the accuweather main page is coming up dead. Damn.
Steve
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 11:30 AM |
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Ended Up Being Wrong After All
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Somehow the center ended up being right on top of New Orleans after all. It does look like it had to take a jog NNW to do it, though.Well, I don't know where it will go now. For some reason, I don't expect to see near as much rain here in the Houston area as what they are predicting, mainly because I don't think Bertha will keep on the track that the NHC says it will.
| nickd |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 11:38 AM |
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Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All
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shawn...why do you think that?
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 11:46 AM |
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Re: Ended Up Being Wrong After All
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My personal opinion is that Bertha will more less just stall out where it is now. If this happens then most of the moisture will stay away from the Houston area. This is just my opinion. As you see, it is not moving too quickly right now and I don't think it will any time soon. I just hate to see this much rain fall in one area. My heart goes out to those people over there.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 12:39 PM |
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7AM Discussion
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Bertha downgraded to a tropical depression
Slidell National Weather Service
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND PEARL RIVER COUNTY MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
National Hurricane Center
AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.0 WEST OR IN THE VICINITY OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA.
BERTHA HAS CONTINUED TO MEANDER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
Bertha has just been downgraded from a tropical storm to tropical deression status. Bertha should have been downgraded at 1:00AM since there was no evidence of 40MPH winds over land. Winds will continue to slightly begin to diminish. HOWEVER, convection is blossoming over the Mississippi Sound. The winds will diminsh but that doesn't say anything about rainfall. Now I know that people are waking up in Louisiana thinking that we have dodged another bullet. But look to your east, south of Mobile. A training affect is occuring oer the Mississippi and Alabama coasts.
Currently, the center of circulation is nearly stationary. This is in response to a developinga 500MB ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. But we still have the high to the north and it will likely begin to influence the track once again rather soon. A slow drift to the WNW should begin later today or tonight. The rain bad south of Mobile will also begin to move east. Residents near the MS/AL can expect heavy rains for the next 24 hours. Heavy rain will likely begin over southeast Louisiana late tonight or early tomorrow morning. New Orleans has not dodged a bullet just yet. Tropical depression Bertha will likely bring heavy rain to the city and 6-8 inches of rainfall are stil possible. You can also expect frequent lightning once the rain moves over the area. Now the worst case scenario for SE LA would be if the center stalls while the heavy rains sit over the area. The city would be in bad shape if this were to occur. But the current thinking is that the heavy rains will not stall over the area...but we cant rule this out. Either way, we will definitely get a lot of heavy rain and flooding is certainly possible. The next discussion will be available a approx. 12:30 PM central time.
CURRENT ACTIVE EPAC STORMS...
NO ACTIVE STORMS
FORECASTER Jason Moreland, TWWFT
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
http://www.tropicalweatherwatchers.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:14 PM |
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Low off South Carolina
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Bertha will continue to wind down over Louisiana, dumping several inches of rain. However, what has caught my attention this morning is how the low off the Carolinas has gained a massive amount of convecton around the llc. It looks like it is truly getting its act together.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:19 PM |
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Re: Low off South Carolina
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They have to classify that low soon. I can't believe it isn't at least a depression now. It looks far more impressive than Bertha. I have a hard time with the models prediction of an eastward movement. Why would the same high that will steer bertha not steer the new storm south and then southwest?????
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:32 PM |
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99L
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system off the coast here is a go.. pretty sure of that. d2.0 on its last ssd take. it has the convective organization it needs to get going now. too bad i'm off on vacation for the rest of the week. thats what i call the andrew contingency.. andrew being the first and a long series of storms that tend to form when i'm not around to watch.
two camps of thought on 99L/future cristobal.. the avn horde that cries out phase, recurve! and the nogaps and euro types that dont toss it out to sea and keep it loitering offshore until the ridge builds back. i've got mixed feelings. avn has been right a lot in recent times when it has wanted to take systems out.. while i can certainly see how northeast troughs are a lot less monstrous than in years past. also there's the asian teleconnection... storms have been running mostly west over there, which teleconnects to west over here (still in the 6-10 day period after fengshen).
all i can say is watch it closely. the models are doing their usual things, my only question is: will the next storm do the usual thing.
bertha is on the wane. it has tracked too far inland for it to maintain much strength when it finally does turn west. so far it has tracked mostly NW. offshore convection is still strong though. was only a marginal tropical storm for a few hours. so much for big bertha.
the central atlantic is looking more appealing than yesterday in terms of convective activity, but still just broad/weak general low pressure. the next amplification on the westerlies will likely stir the convection up more, so it is an area to keep in mind.. though not for a threat. only potential threat at this point is off the south carolina coast.
betcha theyll recon 99L this afternoon and take it up a notch.
HF 1511z05august
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:47 PM |
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Re: 99L
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Soon a depression:
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTH OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON
Farther east...the wave at around 20W has been looking better in loops this morning.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:48 PM |
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SE area of interest
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I think they are heading out 2pm EST to scope it out.
| Jason M |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 03:49 PM |
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Re: SE area of interest
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FORECAST POSTED: 8/05/02/ 11:30 AM EDT
ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK:
We are no longer writing discussions on tropical depression Bertha. The center of circulation is moving well inland and the heaviest rains should begin to diminish later today.
Now the attention shifts to the east coast...
Latest Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) numbers is now up to 2.0 for the low off the east coast. In addition, the National Hurricane Center will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft into the low pressure system tomorrow to look for any signs of development. The low is becoming quite impressive on satellite imagery. In fact, we will likely have our next named storm within 24 hours.
The majority of the forecast models take this low south and then NE out to sea. This track seems fairly reasonable since a high over the east will block the low from moving west. In addition, an upper level troough is moving south and is expected to pull the low northeast. Now there is always the chance that the trough could miss the low but it does seem unlikely at this point. However, the east coast should continue closely monitor this developing low. Bermuda and Newfoundland will also have to watch this low as they may be in the path of this developing storm.
The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There is nothing else in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. There is one weak wave passing near Jamaica but it won't do a whole lot. There is another tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands that will give them some showers. If we look way out into the eastern Atlantic, you will find a wave with a small flare up of convection. However, this wave is moving into an area of sinking air. Therefore, tropical development is not expected.
The next update will be posted between 5-7PM central time.
FORECASTER: Jason Moreland
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DISCLAIMER: THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. PLEASE LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS OR THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
| garyb |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 05:26 PM |
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Test on 99L
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DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992002) ON 20020805 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020805 1200 020806 0000 020806 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.4N 77.7W 31.8N 78.0W 30.6N 78.6W
BAMM 32.4N 77.7W 32.1N 77.5W 31.2N 77.2W
A98E 32.4N 77.7W 32.4N 77.1W 32.1N 76.4W
LBAR 32.4N 77.7W 32.0N 77.5W 31.5N 77.6W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020807 0000 020807 1200 020808 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.0N 79.1W 27.3N 80.0W 24.8N 83.4W
BAMM 30.2N 76.2W 29.6N 74.8W 30.5N 68.9W
A98E 31.5N 74.4W 32.2N 71.3W 34.8N 68.0W
LBAR 31.0N 77.5W 31.1N 77.0W 34.1N 73.6W
SHIP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 32KTS 36KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.4N LONCUR = 77.7W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 32.2N LONM12 = 79.1W DIRM12 = 108DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 32.6N LONM24 = 79.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1017MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 06:55 PM |
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Re: Test on 99L
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Do feel we will have are next depression late this afternoon or evening. Surface analysis shows pressure 1012 mb but recon may find lower. Satellite loops show system winding up off SC. Models are in good agreement on taking it southeast then northeast as an strong trough for this time of the year plows into eastern seaboard. In fact models bring front through florida? This seems overdone. But trough will be close enough to pull this system northeast. Areas which maybe in the path would be possibly Bermuda and newfoundland down the road. Also believe this may become a tropical storm and " possibly" are first weak hurricane. I hate to go this far out but just my prediction.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 06:57 PM |
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Joe
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Sorry the above post is me Joe.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 05 2002 08:59 PM |
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WE HAVE TD 3
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Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 05, 2002
satellite and radar imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area off the Carolina coast has become a tropical depression.