CFHCAdministrator
()
Fri Aug 23 2002 01:43 PM
10 Years Ago... Andrew

Today, ten years ago, hurricane Andrew made landfall. The system that forever changed the way hurricanes were treated in Florida. One of the most costly natural disasters in United States history. Thankfully, relatively low in cost of life.

It forever changed the building codes in Florida, and shook up insurance, and changed the landscape of Florida City and Homestead forever. This was the storm that awoken many of us to the real power of these systems.

Since that time Florida has had very few storms, Opal being the only one to even approach it. Other minor systems toyed with us, but nothing on the level of Andrew in the United States.

Andrew levelled homestead, including the Air Force Base. (Much like a system in 1945 that passed directly over Homestead on September 15 with a minimum pressure of 951 mb. One of the lighthouses offshore measured
sustained winds of 138 mph. Making it a strong category 3 (almost a 4) on the Saffir-Simpson scale compared to Andrew's strong category 4.

For hard facts, you can't beat the National Hurricane Center's own report on andrew, including some photos, satellite imagery, and radar from up here in Melbourne.

Andew actually hit overnight on the 24th.

Are we once again complacent? I'm sure many in Homestead aren't, but the rest of the state... Are we ready for an event like that again? Have we slipped back into taking the lack of storms for granted? In many ways I think we have. Florida's population along the coast hasn't gone down any over the last ten years. Take a flight down the coast, if you don't believe it. There is almost no locations where development is not around. (Exculding the Canaveral National Seashore area) And south florida is jam packed from Miami North. Evacuation routes are planned, emergency management in most cases has done their homework. But the threat remains.

I think Florida as a whole is ready for another storm like that, however many of the people individually are not. Many buildings are not either. Emergency management definitely would be stressed, but i don't think broken if another like that came our way.

Currently, the tropics are quiet in general. A few waves coming off Africa, and a really disorganized system near the eastern Caribbean are the only things out there. Nothing now, nothing in the past week. However this time of year things can change, and change quickly. So we are still watching.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

tom5r
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Aug 23 2002 03:12 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

That was an awakening writeup on Andrew and development on the florida east coast, but if we were to look closer, the entire east coast is well over developed in oceanic storm areas. From key West to Long Island ( the catchers mit ) the shore front property is heavily developed.
People tend to forget or are not informed of the history of coastal storms. As a young boy growing up on the Jersey shore ( ca. 1961, give or take a year ) I experienced what they call the GREAT MARCH STORM ( AS IT WAS NOT TROPICAL AND THEREFORE NOT A HURRICANE ) although a spinner, where Long Beach Island was literally wiped off the map. People died and thousands of homes were thrown into the bay to the west. This area today is more developed than ever. There was no forecast of a storm and came at night and thousands were trapped. I'll never forget that as long as I live. It can, and will happen again.
I now live in the Florida Keys ( hurricane Alley ) and that is why I go on this site every day. I never want to be caught in that situation again. A spinner is indeed, the wrath of God.

Jason M
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Aug 24 2002 01:47 AM
August 23, 2001

Current satellite pictures are identical to what they were like exactly one year ago. My Point is that people are writing this season off way too early. This is EXACTLY what happened last season. Now am I saying that this season will end just like this one? NO. But you never know what may happen within the next two months.

Satellite image of August 23, 2001:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/goesbrowse/2001/g8ir23AUG200100.jpg

Water Vapor Image August 23, 2001:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/goesbrowse/2001/g8wv23AUG200100.jpg

Hopefully people will realize that the season doesn't end until Nov. 30th.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 02:08 AM
Shear, shear, and More Shear

WHat was shown yesterday on the shear forecast was nice pinks and purples (light winds aloft). Today's forecast brings some reality; blues, greens and a few reds with pockets of light winds. This is quite a change. Conditions are not favorable in the Atlantic basin now. Maybe next week! I think JB needs to look at the sat pix, not just the models. Cheers!! Steve H.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 24 2002 02:53 AM
10 Years Ago... Andrew

I can remember 10 years ago tonight, the waiting and wondering for daybreak to arrive and what we would see in South Florida. I was lucky to be some 65 miles from the center of the eye, winds only reached 65 mph instead of 165 mph at my house.

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 24 2002 03:18 AM
A FINE LINE

There is a fine line that divides my own mind and thoughts when it comes to my interest and fascination of tropical storms, yet the devastation that one can bring will change your life forever. I know if I experienced an Andrew I probably would not ever want to see another.
The question was asked earlier, ARE WE COMPLACENT? I think that most of us are. Many residents in my area of W Central Florida thinks they have been in a hurricane, when all they have experienced is a strong tropical breeze. HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS can never be talked about enough in my opinion. Our local Emergency Management has a great list of things for you to do to help you prepare, but my concern is that most people just go thru the motion of gathering supplies and not really have a workable plan.I'll use myself as an example, Elena in '85 was approaching the W Central Coast line. I stood in long lines just like I thought I should do and got my 3 gallons of water and a loaf of bread just like I was told to do.Oh, by the way I had a 2 litter bottle of water for my dog. The point that I am trying to make is that I really had NO CLUE AS TO WHAT WAS LURKING OUT THERE. We were fortunate Elena moved away. I think, and I hope that I am a little more prepared today than I was back then. That's why I love all this information. THANK YOU AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK GUYS!
TONI


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Sat Aug 24 2002 08:29 AM
Wave at 41W

Interesting that the wave around 41W is accompanied by some moderate convection and according to the TWD, a swirl near 11n38w. Additionally the wave is tilted to the SW/NE. Apart from this wave there is little in the way of activity across the Atlantic.

Looking at the Central pacific there first homegrown Tropical Depression is set to become a Tropical Storm, probably during today, but is no threat to the Hawaiian Islands.

Rich B

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 10:31 AM
What I remember about Andrew...

The devastation in South Florida was all over the news. The setup was just right for a 2nd landfall in Louisiana. We've seen major storms over the years that hit between Miami and The Keys only to curve NW and paste us, and Andrew appeared to be no exception. My oldest was one and a half, and my wife was 5 months pregnant with our second. Local news went to 24 hour coverage, and the state of excitement and a call to action gripped the area. This threat was very real. One of the news channels ran a story on pregnancy and extreme low pressure. Apparently someone had put out a theory (and I have no idea if this is true or not) that there was often a rash of emergency labors duing hurricanes. We called the hospital, but they said not to worry but they'd be open anyway in case we needed them.

My boss told us we had to go into the office that morning and work for 2 hours getting things prepared. I was adamantly opposed to this, but agreed to come in an hour earlier if I could get off at 9 and take care of my own business. He agreed. I was living in New Orleans East at the time, but I worked in Kenner. I woke up early, put on TWC and looked at the radar. The fringe bands were just off the coast and had been for several hours prior. So I cruised on out to Kenner and helped take all the computers off the desks, put their dust covers on and move them into the hallways. The building I worked in, Xerox Centre, was an all glass building and untested. So getting our equipment secured was essential.

I left work and stopped by my friend Eric's house. He worked for a local bank and was occupying one of their repossessions at the time. It was a 7,500sf, 2-story, concrete and brick office building with an apartment. All the old gang had started showing up, so I drank a beer with them and headed home to deal with my family. The wife and I decided we would ride the storm out at my dad's house, and I also needed to help my parents get all their loose items secured. I already had a bunch of supplies because I hit the stores before the rush, so we were in good shape. I locked up my dogs in the laundry room where they would be safe, packed up the supplies and the diaper bag and headed out to mom and dad's. We hung out with my dad, but nothing really materialized. We got some wind and a little rain, but it wasn't that big of a deal. We decided to head back home where my wife could be a little more comfortable and less irritated. We got home and the electric wires were arking, and transformers were blowing. The winds were 30, gusting to 45, so the whole night sky was filled with eerie blue light. In my dad's neighborhood, the power lines are all underground, so this was a slight change. There were a few downed limbs in the neighborhood, but it wasn't that bad. I drank a few brews and fell asleep. I woke up early the next morning figuring that I was going to have to go to work and put everything back together. I got up assuming Andrew was over and another boring storm had come but missed the city. Much to my surprise, I opened the door and looked outside and the wind was howling. Gusts were in the 50's, and all the trees were blowing wildly. I let out a great sigh of relief and decided to screw work. I tried to call in, but no one was there. I tried again at 10:30 but still no answer. Screw work, it was time for a few brews. The remainder of that day was spent on my porch, watching news, and driving around looking at downed trees, damaged property and the like. Every now and then a squall would blow through with clouds racing across the sky and winds blowing 40-50+ mph. I went and visited a couple of friends to check on them, and everything was cool. People weren't as lucky in St. Mary, Lower Terrebonne and Lafouche Parishes to our SW, but we had dodged a major bullet. Just 15 miles west of Kenner in the town of Laplace (just off the SW corner of Lake Pontchartrain), a tornado had touched down in a neighbohood killing several people. That was the worst the area saw, but the city was spared. I got 2 bonus holidays and another tropical experience.

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 01:15 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

From the 3:30 am marine weather discussion:

IN THE TROPICS THE AVN MODEL BEGINS TO RECOGNIZE WAVES DAY 4 E
OF THE ISLANDS AND BY DAY 5 SHOWS A WAVE..NOW ON THE AFRICAN
COAST ADVANCING W TO NEAR 45W. ONE INTERESTING THING SEEN IN THE
AVN RUN IS SURFACE PRESSURES DECREASING DAY 5 WITH THE MODEL
DEPICTING A 1012 MB LINE ADVANCING NORTHWARD TO 18N..A GOOD
INDICATOR OF A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT.










Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 02:14 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

Ahhh....nice and quiet!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT AUG 24 2002

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE TROPICS ARE QUIET AND IN FACT...COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 07:26 PM
one week

i'm surprised nothing has formed yet. still think fausto in the eastpac is a precursor to the atlantic coming alive, sometime over the next few days. 40w wave looks ok, not great. couple of areas at the edge of the subtropics.. what with traveling the last few days i cant really trace the entire evolution of what i see out there now. sort of expect trouble to start next week. thats climo talking as much as anything else. only another week left in august.. dont expect to make it through without more systems developing.
HF navarre, fl 1924z24august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 24 2002 10:14 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

the east at about 35W is lookin a bit better.

I know most have simply vanished from the sat imaging outthat way lately but with the azore high creeping back to its normal place maybe everything will fall into place


of course the thing that has killed every sytem out there so far has been someone noticing and posting about a positive trend.

troy

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 24 2002 11:41 PM
Everything will fall in place for atlantic to pop up

The MJO factor in it's wet phase is now in the atlantic but it takes a week to see the effects of it in terms of activity.

Also the azores high is in a more normal and that will be another favorable factor.What we have to watch is that upper troughs and upper lows dominate the atlantic as they have done this season putting a cap to the caribbean and parts of the atlanic.

So let's wait and see what the heart of the season will bring.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Aug 25 2002 02:56 AM
Maybe Some Changes Coming

Long period swells showing up from Atlantic Low to the Buoys off the East Central Florida Coast. This week, maybe things will heat up. This from the Melbourne NWS Discussion: THINGS TO GET MORE INTERESTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEVELOPED
FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES DEEP INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG TROUGH MON-TUE AND A WETTER
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY FOR OUR AREA AT MID WEEK. STAY TUNED.
At least that the home grown variety that's possible. Central atlantic should get something brewing by mid-week I believe. We'll see. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Aug 25 2002 06:45 AM
Re: Maybe Some Changes Coming

that front will not have much tropical affect on fl,,just shifting winds off the gulf and up the chances or rain Monday thru the week. Still I stay with the pattern I mentioned in May and just last topic 4 days ago, nothing imminent thru the week.
scottsvb

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Aug 25 2002 05:34 PM
A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...

It's not too often Joe doesn't have an idea on something, so this is worth posting for that alone if nothing else. But it caught my eye this morning too. System doesn't look great right now. The 30 frame loop of Goes-8 Hurric sector shows the best look to the convection was around 12 last night. There is a lot of shear in the area so I wouldn't expect anything to get excited about soon, if ever.

>>Don't know what to make of the system near central America, except it does not look like it should just shoot west as the newly developping Pacific cyclone did. This looks like a slow north to northwest drift. There is an upper ridge close by. So again we have to see what the 24 hour tendency is for convection and movement is.

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 25 2002 06:57 PM
Re: A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...

Looks like shear is doing it's thing to the system in the caribbean. will have to wait as you said to see what will happen. I agree with you I don't think it is going to go west, more than likely north and perhaps a little north east. I still have a BIG? regarding the east atlantic. I'm going to give it 2 more weeks. Again a reminder, we did not have our first hurricane until Sept.1 last season and we ended up with a grand total of 9 hurricanes for the season. The CV may be shut down for the season but excessive energy always finds a new route. Toni

57497479
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 25 2002 07:39 PM
Re: A little Bastardi Note of interest from today's minor-post...

Sorry, got it together now. Didn't know you were still quoting Joe B. in the second paragraph. Just read his daily post. This week should be interesting! Toni

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 25 2002 11:07 PM
Will history be made in 2002?

It may happen because if no hurricanes form in the last days of august then it will be 2 years in a row as in 2001 the first hurricane formed in early september.The last time that happened was in 1922-1923 so let's see what these last days of august brings to see if a hurricane forms but as I see things now I put an 80% chance that history will be made.The only thing that may put a cap to the history may be a wave comming out of africa so let's see what happens in the last days of august.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 05:07 AM
stuff

three areas of interest in the basin.
1. sw caribbean disturbance remains offshore, persistent convection.
2. wave near 45w at very low latitude fairly well defined.
3. n gulf to off the se coast.. mccs pushed offshore brickwalling against the trades and possibly brewing something up.

other than that.. purely amazed. august 26th and still nothing has formed since the sissy storm burst early in the month.
HF tallahassee, fl 0506z26august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 11:39 AM
Re: stuff

I agree...really amazing. The 3:30AM MWD gives some hints at what can happen this week:

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE MRF MODEL STRENGTHENS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLC WHILE
SHIFTING IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS HAS THE
TENDENCY TO SHOVE THE INLAND UPPER TROUGH FURTHER W TO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS IS NOT A PATTERN WE WANT TO SEE SET UP GOING
INTO THE HEART OF THE HURRICANE SEASON. AND AS IF ON CUE..THE
AVN MODEL BEGINS TO SHOW WAVES BECOMING MORE ENERGETIC THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

If nothing happens during the next few days, I guess we'll start to wonder if This season will fall short of Gray's numbers!!!


Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 26 2002 12:47 PM
The decisive moment is now

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html

All is falling into place for the waves to begin to organize and the MJO is one of them as shown in the link.The wet phase is now in the atlantic as shown by the green lines and that combined with the pattern setup of the atlantic ridge and the less subsidence in the atlantic so now let's wait to see if the peak of the season will bring the usual systems at this time or atlantic will continue quiet.

But I see a definite pattern change and will will see developments very soon as some models are showing.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 12:51 PM
Re: stuff

What discussion is MWD?? Can't find that one. Steve H.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 01:14 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

mwd site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS_text.html

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 02:37 PM
Re: 10 Years Ago... Andrew

Thanks!! So the pattern is setting up. Should be an interesting few weeks ahead. Bahamas look slightly intersting this morning as Convection is building there. In the near-term a disturbance north of PR still has my interest as I see some low-level turning. Cheers!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 03:42 PM
add a 4th

last night trouble areas were SE coast, 45w wave, SW caribbean. add another.. the wave passing 60w. it's still under the TUTT jet, but has a decent mid level signature and should eventually move out from under the shear and begin to slow down near the bahamas later this week.
with mjo apparently having flipped, all of the central and eastern pacific activity should correllate with altantic activity before the week is out.
and as bastardi has been saying.. the ridge position has us in a strike pattern.
coastal low near nc associated with the upper feature over the southeast is probably the most immediate development candidate.. though not necessarily tropical. will see.
HF 1540z26august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 03:55 PM
Re: add a 4th

Yes HF, that one I said earlier that was North of PR. Actually it's east NE of there, passing by 60W. Gotta like its appearance as it will be our first candidate in the shoot. Cheers!! Steve H.

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Aug 26 2002 04:18 PM
Add a 5th

The north GOM has a surface trough and if it hangs out there it may spin something.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 04:28 PM
Re: add a 4th

Water vapor does not look kind to anything in the ITCZ (2:45 - 11:45 UTC). Everything looks way south, the furtherest south i have seen in years. Furthermore, westerly shear is in high gear off the south/central coast of central america pushing anything west if not WNW. Lastly, if anything should form, the trough off the east coast will move it well east of the CDN maritimes. So, I say nothing for at least 1 week. See how these factors change in the short term.

...

squirralee
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 26 2002 05:17 PM
Re: add a 4th

Okay, what is TUTT

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Mon Aug 26 2002 05:53 PM
tutt





Subject: A9) What is a "TUTT"?
Fitzpatrick et al. 1995
A "TUTT" is a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. A TUTT low is a TUTT that has completely cut-off. TUTT lows are more commonly known in the Western Hemisphere as an "upper cold low". TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling. TUTTs are important for tropical cyclone forecasting as they can force large amounts of harmful vertical wind shear over tropical disturbances and tropical cyclones. There are also suggestions that TUTTs can assist tropical cyclone genesis and intensification by providing additional forced ascent near the storm center and/or by allowing for an efficient outflow channel in the upper troposphere. For a more detailed discussion on TUTTs see the article by Fitzpatrick et al. (1995).




squirralee
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Aug 26 2002 07:56 PM
Re: tutt

Thank you kind person

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Aug 26 2002 10:25 PM
just another blow up

Impressive looking area of convection in the extreme southwest Caribbean. However, I see no signs of a circulation and I say almost 10 to 1 that it will die out.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 02:24 PM
Off Africa

First really decent looking system off Africa...

IHS,

Bill

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 27 2002 03:27 PM
Re: Off Africa

I agree that it looks the most decent one this year but will it survive is the question.As we know all the waves have fizzeled out as soon they had hit the water so let's see what this one does in the comming days.But as I have said I see developments more west and not so far east and that is west of 50w.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 03:59 PM
Re: add a 4th

Wave Off AFrica looking like it wants to start wrapping up, as convection looks plentiful and some evidence of tumbling. Of immediate concern is the area at 63W/23N which has convection building up nicely now. But will they develop? If this particular disturbance decides to develop, it could threaten Florida or enter into the GOM thru the Straits on the weekend. Things SEEM to be picking up. Cheers!! Steve H.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 04:03 PM
Re: just another blow up

still reforming in SW carib. but yeah.. synoptic conditions usually not right to get something to develop down there, as it would probably be inland in central america in no time.
have to see what comes together east of florida, near the bahamas later this week. thats IF the convection will stay out of the shear. east atlantic looks typically weak. it's always june out there this year. itcz too far south, jet ripping up whatever peeks across 10N.
mcc running southeastward into east texas.. weakening as time goes by. have to see what makes it into the gulf.
convection is more active in the basin thanks to mjo. now see if the shear will quit ripping it all up. kind of ridiculous that nothing has formed yet since august 15.
HF 1558z27august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 06:50 PM
Re: add a 4th

It looks clear to me that there is a sheering enviroment very close to the possible disturbance located 23N/63W. What changes in the atmosphere would allow this system to possibly escape too much sheer and head into the bahamas, florida straits region? I appreciate the help!

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 27 2002 08:20 PM
Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

There is a strong tropical wave that has moved off of Africa today and is GAINING convevtion OVER WATER. The system looks like it has a rotation just on satellite imagery. Nearly all of the models have picked up on this system, but they dissipate it as it nears the islands. *IF* it develops, it should strengthen as it nears the islands as models normally do dissipate new systems after 72 hours (specifically systems that haven't been classified). Also, as the wave moves west it appears that the upper-levels will become increasingly favorable for development. If this wave holds on or improve for the next 24-36 hours, expect some development. An invest could go up soon. Chance of development: 4/10

There is also a tropical wave near 64W and 20N. Slow development is possible as upper-level conditions become more favorable this week. Chance of development: 2/10.

Kevin

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Aug 27 2002 08:27 PM
Re: Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

Agree Kevin this wave has a nice signature and plenty of convection and if it holds up it may develop.Conditions are improving in the tropical atlantic and the shear as models are saying will fade away in 72 hours west of 50w so this one has the best shot for development this season.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 08:40 PM
Re: Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

Latest wave off Africa looks like it is starting to have a liitle spin and wrap going on.

troy

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 08:43 PM
Re: Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

have a look/see!
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200208271800AI1_g.jpg

troy

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 09:27 PM
Re: Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

Believe me I was really impressed when I looked at this Sat pic just before logging to CFHC...

http://kauai.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=atlantic/tropics&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20010718.2045.goes-8.ir.x.trop.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 10:10 PM
Re: Finally, we have a nice candidate for some development.

I think we have a (south) Cape Verde winner here. It will be intresting to see if she (Dolly) makes it past the islands or get pushed ENE by the westerly shear and/or torn apart by a large cold low is spinning SE of the Azors and moving south if not SE. You can see this in the current WV imagery. It will be intresting see if the shear does relax, as what I have read here will happen. If the shear does not relax (my bet) Dolly could find herself in a squeeze play between the westerly shear and the cold low spinning SSE. Although, if she is strong enough, she could produce her own environment and get past the islands. Time will tell.

PS - Look at the wave on the heals of this wave !! Impressive. Hope you all had a good rest...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Aug 27 2002 10:10 PM
E Atlanic wave

Looks 10 times more impressive than any other wave that emerged from Africa this year. The tropical weather outlook mentioned it. I don't think they've mentioned anything in the East Atlantic this year, so I wouldn't bet against it. But where will it go?

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Tue Aug 27 2002 11:28 PM
E Atlanic wave

The wave continues to look better with each pic...just look at how circulation-oriented it is. Convection remains strong near the center. Expect an invest later tonight or early tomorrow at the latest. Possible T-numbers by morning if organization continues. Plenty of time to watch this feature.
Kevin

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 28 2002 12:17 AM
Re: E Atlanic wave

The wave currently exiting the west coast of Africa looks to be sure winner. Shear maps look to be favorable. It appears to be wrapping up convection. I'll give this a 6/10 chance for development. Models have been trying to pop this for past week and finally looks like this will come true. Take it easy!

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 28 2002 12:19 AM
Re: E Atlanic wave

Sorry last post was me...

Jason M
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 28 2002 12:26 AM
Re: E Atlanic wave

FORECAST POSTED: 8/27/02/ 8:10 PM EDT


Tropical Weather Outlook

The strongest tropical wave of the 2002 season has emerged off of the African continent. This wave is under an area that is favorable for slow tropical development. Tropical storm formation is possible over the next 2-3 days. Elsewhere, tropical storm formation over the next 72 hours will not occur.

Tropical Weather Discussion

Well after everyone giving up on the season, we're beginning to see some activity in the Atlantic basin. I am not saying that we aren't going to end up with a below average season. But I still believe that we will have an average to slightly above average season. The area of most interest, is the tropical wave south of the Cape Verde islands. Unlike the waves that have exited the coast earlier in the season, this wave is showing no signs of falling apart anytime soon. In fact, the wave has been becoming better organized over the last 12 hours. There appears to be a low to mid level circulation associated witht he wave. A circulation is very evident on QUICKSCAT imagery. This is the same wave that I mentioned about five days ago, when it was still over central Africa. The models aren't backing down neither. The UKMET (Which has been one of the better models this season) is the latest model now hinting on development. In addition, the NOGAPS model (Which is usually the last model to forecast development) is also hinting on tropical development.

Over the past week or two, I have been constantly posting on the site and at numerous weather forums, about conditions across the Mean Development Region (The area of the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa). There is no doubt in my mind that conditions have been improving over the past few weeks. The Azores high is still rather strong. However, the high is now much farther north, allowing a few waves to make it all the way across the basin. The last one to make it across, is the wave just east of the Bahamas (I will get to this wave in just a second). In addition, the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is now located along the long term average latitude. The shear across the MDR has also weakened over the past two weeks and the sea surface temperatures have warmed as well. The slight increase in ssts is in response to the NAO turning negative, which was forecasted about a month ago. The NAO is now forecasted to go neutral, but not positive. So I don't see a dramatic decrease in ssts anytime soon. So all of these factors have made conditions across the MDR a little more condusive for development and it shows.

NRL should issue an INVEST later tonight or tomorrow, as soon as the National Hurricane Center begins doing model runs. The Satellite Analysis Branch should also be posting intensity numbers rather soon. As long as the wave stays on almost a due west track, slow development should occur over the next 72 hours. The majority of shear will be north of the wave, with a strong jet max developing just north of the system in 72 hours. Now if the wave begins to take a more west-northwesterly track, chances of development would significantly decrease. The forecast is for this wave to slowly develop within the next 48 hours, possibly into a tropical depression. A tropical storm would be likely in 72-96 hours, if the shear doesn't begin to increase. Even if the wave does develop into a depression, the system could still dissipate east of the Lesser Antilles. Currently, the eastern Caribbean and central Atlantic is experiencing moderate shear being caused by an upper level trough. However, an upper level ridge is forecasted to develop over the region, which could eventually weaken the shear before the wave makes that far west. So the intensity forecast is highly uncertain past 48 hours...but I do believe that this wave has a good shot at developing into a tropical depression. It is too early to say whether or not the islands will be affected.

We are also monitoring another wave just east of the Bahamas. This wave will continue on a westerly track, towards southern Florida. Conditions are forecasted to become a little more favorable for development so it does bear watching. The wave will eventually move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. But with no organization and lack of convection, development at this time is unlikely.

the convection in the extreme southwest Caribbean is still persisting. The convection is associated with a slow moving tropical wave. The wave is expected to move over central America over the next few days. Therefore, development is unlikely.

The strongest part of the negative phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation still hasn't made it into the Atlantic basin. This concerns me because we're already seeing a decent increase in tropical activity across the basin. The peak of activity this season should come once the peak of the negative phase is over the central Atlantic. The Atlantic should see a nice burst of activity at least over the next four weeks.

BTW, I am now posting at the CFHC storm forum.

FORECASTER: Jason Moreland, TWWFT



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