Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 03:14 PM
Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly

The system everyone was watching in the eastern Atlantic, is now Tropical Depression #4. It's moving west northwest at 16 mph, and is expected to strengthen. We will be keeping a close eye out on this one.

5:00 PM Update: HELLO DOLLY

7PM Update by Mike C:
Tropical Storm Dolly is moving westward (wnw) now and will continue on this trek for a few days. It's a bit too early to determine if it will be a fish spinner or not so we'll wait a bit longer. As of now I think it has a chance at a run toward the NE Caribbean islands, but (as one would figure) just as much or more of it moving away. This is all several days out, so we'll have time to watch it.

The System north of the Bahamas isn't looking as good tonight. It probably won't develop and may cause a bunch of rain for us later. Still, we will watch it, as things could change.

The system in the Caribbean could strengthen slowly, Aircraft Recon is being sent to it later on.

Areas of interest are marked below by John's annotated image:



NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.


- [john@flhurricane.com]

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 03:25 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

Although too early to establish, models initially give it a more northerly track (WNW). I'll bet on a so called fish-spinner.

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 29 2002 03:26 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

Looks well organized and Dolly is around the corner very soon as it moves more westnorthwest.But the key will be the shear that it will encounter ahead if it fades away or it will be there and dissipate it but I think that the shear will not be so strong to tear it apart and about the track the Islands should watch it because comming from very low latituds it poses a threat.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 03:39 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

I still see this thing moving west (the TD) maybe a hair more than 270. It will strengthen nicely though. Pumping up the ridge there and shear ahead of "her" is lessening in my opinion, and the environment around "her" and out ahead of her is lessening the shear and it's showing up only further west as she pushes west. A definite threat to the islands down the road. Cheers!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 04:09 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

everone is talking about dolly but she isnt born yet. She is
still a TD (fetus) but could be born by the weekend. I have said she will be close to TS strength today but by tomorrow she will have a hard time keeping her strength and might weaken to even a open wave before getting her act together later sunday into monday around the 2nd.
Now with this the case she will be more west. Its not the latitude that the TD is now as the reasoning, its the system will be week and steerd then by the low level flow. I expect her to be just e of the NE islands by Laborday and become Dolly by then or again. Ill post more later on this and also my mentioned carribean system later. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 04:21 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

I wouldn't bank on TD Four's long-term prospects. The AVN, NOGAPS, and MRF all show the persistence of an upper-level trough to its northwest through at least 72 hours. Assuming this system continues tracking WNW, it will probably get picked up by the upper-low. At the very least, it will encounter strong westerly shear.

So in the final analysis, I wouldn't be surprised if it recurves well east of the Antilles. Of course, nature is full of surprises, but this is the way I think things look for now.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 04:31 PM
Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?

Well, Dolly may well come to be, probably will...but closer to home....the sw carib feature is looking healthier by the hr, will probably cycle some, but, if it holds together through tonight, it may end up being a traditionally busy Labor Day weekend.

Also,,,,of passing interest...in the very bottom of the BOC---- saw that someone said some of the models showed a TS forming and moving into Bville....this system is probably too close to land, but in light of the model interest, just thought I'd mention it....

Show time..the real season is starting....

IHS,

Bill

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 29 2002 05:27 PM
TEST ON 93L


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932002) ON 20020829 1200 UTC


...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

020829 1200 020830 0000 020830 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 11.5N 78.5W 12.1N 79.2W 13.2N 80.2W

BAMM 11.5N 78.5W 12.3N 79.8W 13.3N 81.4W

A98E 11.5N 78.5W 11.6N 78.6W 12.1N 79.2W

LBAR 11.5N 78.5W 11.8N 79.1W 13.1N 80.2W

SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

020831 0000 020831 1200 020901 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 14.7N 81.3W 16.0N 82.7W 18.4N 85.6W

BAMM 14.4N 83.0W 15.4N 84.8W 17.5N 88.5W

A98E 13.1N 80.3W 14.8N 81.7W 17.8N 86.0W

LBAR 14.9N 81.7W 16.6N 83.4W 20.0N 86.4W

SHIP 44KTS 50KTS 60KTS

DSHP 44KTS 50KTS 60KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 78.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 78.3W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 11.1N LONM24 = 78.3W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 05:28 PM
This is what I see...

I think TD #4 heads WNW with a likely curve back to the west down the road. This would be due to weakening/remaining weak and involved with the low level flow. It's definitely a threat to the Islands. Models tend to always want to recurve CV systems, so that's not a surprise. It should also be no surprise that they're likely to back off on recurvature (further west) with each successive run.

As to Bill's post, that's where I'm looking too. The BoC actually shows some outflow, but this might be shear coming in over the top from the Pacific. The SW Carribean has been hot/cold for the last 4 days. It looked best yesterday, but has some symmetry now with it. Recon is scheduled to investigate tomorrow if warranted.

Tough call on either BOC or SW Caribbean as to eventual strength and landfalls. BoC probably would nose NNE/NE over time (unless pushed into Mexico or TX), SW Caribbean is anyone's guess. I don't have one

Steve

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?

Ok, I posted this before but when I closed the page out and then came back, it wasn't there. Hm.

I'm not quite sure that I would be willing to bet that TD4 will be a fishspinner just yet...there are too many factors involved to do that, IMHO. For now anyway, it looks to be a pretty healthy system anyway.

As far as the Bahamas area is concerned, I can't seem to locate that feature (I'm more than likely blind) but I did notice the area at 68W, and that is beginning to look pretty interesting also.

As Bill mentioned, the system near the Bahamas may make for an interesting Labor Day Weekend. However, since I am unable at this moment to locate it, LOL, would someone please be kind enough to give me a general area to look at? Lat/Long coordinates would be even better. I did see a spin just barely N of Jamaica, I'm not sure if this is the area of concern or not. Also noticed that the NHC is saying a "reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system tomorrow if necessary".

The area in the lower BOC IS looking mighty impressive at the moment; however, I've seen what seems like the same exact picture in the same exact area a few times this year....only to watch them fade into nothing. I have heard that the shear is suppossed to lessen in that area and there is a ridge of high pressure building above it, so who knows?

Hopefully, this time my post will actually post. :-)



garyb
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 29 2002 05:44 PM
GFDL TEST 93L

WHXX04 KWBC 291731

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 29

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 11.4 78.2 0./ .0

6 11.8 80.2 281./20.7

12 12.2 80.4 335./ 4.0

18 12.3 81.5 276./10.4

24 11.9 82.6 251./12.1

30 11.6 83.6 255./ 9.3

36 11.1 83.7 198./ 6.0

42 11.0 83.3 102./ 4.3

48 11.0 83.5 262./ 1.5

54 11.0 83.3 77./ 1.3



STORM DISSIPATED AT 54 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 29 2002 06:45 PM
Re: GFDL TEST 93L

Gary, thanks for posting the model outputs. It appears, according to these models, that this system 93L will be moving to the WNW according to the plots I used on the sun-sentinal tracking map.

However, on the GFDL model, it shows it stalling after 30 hours in the area off 11N/83W area until 54 hours at which time the GFDL model has it dissipating.

I know these are early runs, so we will have to wait and see what happens over the next few days.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 06:49 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?

Colleen-

The area I was referring to is in the SW Carib, altho the system east of the Bahamas also bears some scrutiny.

The SW Carib system peaked about an hour ago, on the diurnal downswing now...the question is whether it'll fire up tonight.

Bad sign for it---rope clouds seen earlier today in Sat analysis. However, time will tell.

IHS,

Bill

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 29 2002 06:58 PM
Re: Where we actually need to be looking---sw carib?

Thanks, Bill...I appreciate the info. Now I am off to pick up the kiddies from school. :-)

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 07:10 PM
Intresting Loop

Take a look at:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
It looks like the area South of Cuba is starting to pick up convection/rotation/outflow
What do you-all think??

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 29 2002 07:16 PM
2:00 PM EST MODEL RUN ON TD #4

Hi Colleen our third or forth year doing this Ain't it great

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.


TROPICAL STORM FOUR (AL042002) ON 20020829 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

020829 1800 020830 0600 020830 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.3W 9.9N 36.8W

BAMM 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.4W 10.0N 36.7W

A98E 9.5N 32.2W 9.5N 34.7W 9.8N 37.4W

LBAR 9.5N 32.2W 9.6N 34.6W 10.1N 37.5W

SHIP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS

DSHP 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

020831 0600 020831 1800 020901 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 10.2N 39.3W 10.7N 42.0W 12.0N 45.6W

BAMM 10.4N 39.0W 11.1N 41.4W 12.3N 45.2W

A98E 10.1N 40.1W 10.3N 42.8W 11.1N 47.5W

LBAR 10.7N 40.5W 11.4N 43.6W 13.4N 48.2W

SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS

DSHP 60KTS 68KTS 75KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 9.5N LONCUR = 32.2W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT

LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 29.9W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 = 13KT

LATM24 = 9.2N LONM24 = 27.1W

WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 50NM RD34NW = 50NM



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 07:50 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

Refering to the previous numerical models 13n at 48w isnt to high of a lat. and not too different from tracks other storms that kept us on our toes(Floyd) took. That same last run seems to show strengthening out to at least 72hrs. So will it be a fish spinner ? who knows bu at least a change in the cycles out that way is evident by this one making it(so far) threw the dead zone that has existed out there all season.

troy




Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 07:53 PM
image reminds me of 95

I know its a different ocean butthis sat image remonds me of the Atlantic '95
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10?PHOT=yes&AREA=pacific/stitched&PROD=ir&NAV=tropics&CGI=tropics.cgi&ARCHIVE=Latest&MOSAIC_SCALE=15&CURRENT=LATEST.jpg

troy


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 08:11 PM
Troy's post re: 'Looks like 1995'

Good catch Troy! If you buy into the teleconnection thing that Bastardi is always pushing, this could be a sign of what may be happening in the ATL soon.

In fact, looking at it right now, we have:

1. a td about to be a TS
2. Disturbance E of Bahamas giving it a go (shear monster nearby though)
3. Disturbance in SW Carib Invests are running on
4. Flare up in BOC lifting N
5. Hmmm..central Gulf starting to fire?

Show's on, actors coming on the stage.....

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 08:48 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4

its official, tropical stoem dolly!! by 5:00 pm nws

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Thu Aug 29 2002 08:49 PM
Dolly forms!

OK, so TD 4 is now TS Dolly, the 4th system of the season thus far!

Not looked at much about her yet, but i am betting on a continuing WNW motion with a jog to the NW before resuming a more WNW motion in a few days time.

Also of note is the system persisting in the SW Caribbean. Some outflow and rotation, and we may see our 5th system here soon!

Rich B

StormWarn2000

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 08:52 PM
Re: Dolly forms!

Posting this, cause well the opening comment by Avila just makes it worthwhile.

TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002

THE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY...

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL
ESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER
AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD.

DOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR
WILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
CONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE
QUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR
THE MODEL NEXT RUN.

IF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN
IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 9.8N 32.7W 35 KTS
12HR VT 30/0600Z 9.9N 34.5W 40 KTS
24HR VT 30/1800Z 10.0N 37.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 31/0600Z 10.5N 39.0W 45 KTS
48HR VT 31/1800Z 11.0N 41.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 01/1800Z 12.0N 45.0W 50 KTS


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 29 2002 09:12 PM
dolly/93L/elsewhere

dolly is a weak system for now. if it doesnt increase in strength a whole lot, it should just continue west. keep in mind that if it does strengthen and begin to turn more NW, it will run into shear, weaken, turn back to the west. what i'm saying is, have fun getting this one to recurve early.
93L.. interesting that it still persists. it's been firing and refiring all week if i'm not mistaken. now there is a clear turning in the surface windfield, maybe a closed low. shallow layer flow is straight in to central america, but this one seems to be forming from persistent deep convection.. probably get steered more NW with the deep flow if it can get going... just force the inflow upward and get some violent convection going. thats if it can get any inner-core structure together in the short term. shear prospects arent great though.
the combination of a tropical wave nearing florida and existing surface trough in the central gulf might kick off enough convergence to.. you guessed it. surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area for a few days, just have to wait-see what goes down.
BOC.. bill... dont see that doing anything. shear and the fact its an extension of eastpac weather.
system east of florida, from an old trade wind disturbance that has been drifting wsw for days.. around 25/65 now. surface windfield has buckled around the convection some.. shear is bad just behind it.. but maybe supporting convection ahead of it. the upper TUTT Low chasing it wont follow it forever. various models are tracking this as a disturbance up to the carolinas. form it or not, they could use the rain.
wave at 53w or so looks fairly perky under all that shear. maybe a bother in a few days.
my fish spinner candidate, just like the one a week ago, refuses to do much. it is retrograding at 40N though.. not something you see everyday.
that is a mouthful, and quite enough. i've been posting on the last thread all day wondering why no one else was. my lovely computer doesnt want to refresh pages, it seems.. so i killed the store page feature.. hope that deals with it.
fin.
HF 2106z29august

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 29 2002 10:12 PM
Dolly will definitely not be an easy recurver/93L.

Dolly: Has anyone noticed the tone between the first advisory and the second one? Notice how much more uncertain advisory 2 sounds than 1...but yet it strengthens Dolly more than the first advisory. Dolly may try to recurve, but more than likely will turn back west. This is not an instant fish and nor do I think it will be. What boggles me is that NHC is actually favoring some of the global models right now, but at the same time, the manner in which the globals initialized and have handled this system has been horrible.

93L: This one may try to develop slowly over the next couple of days. It should track NW towards the Yucatan Peninsula. If it develops, things could get interesting after the Yucatan.

Thoughts and comments needed on the model troubles with Dolly.

Kevin

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Thu Aug 29 2002 10:27 PM
Thoughts and Comments?

As far as models in the deep tropics, I don't trust them until you can actually get some samples from recon...the init is a series of assumptions until you get some interior obs...I'd take all the guidance with a grain of salt at this point.



Kevin
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 29 2002 10:41 PM
I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

So, it appears that we will be on our own for the the next couple of days because the only things we have to turn to is the crappy model guidence. BTW, what are your thougths (or guesses, as early as it is in the game) on the future of Dolly? How about 93L?

Kevin

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 29 2002 11:10 PM
I agree with both

Models at this point are a grain of salt because of the poor data from that area.We have to wait a couple of days to then see more data going in to the NHC computers and also as it gets more close to the islands but it is still early to say that the islands will be affected by Dolly.

brew
(Registered User)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:25 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

I will take a guess at Dolly. I say cat3 between Sebastian and Cocca, Melbourne as a hot spot. Worst case I am wrong and it won't be the last time.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:57 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

latest dolly discussion thinks along the lines of more west than wnw. also nhc seems to think it may be able to strengthen a bit more and faster than earlier discussions.
she does look nice...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:58 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

oops that was me, troy, with above post

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:03 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

looks like the train may start rollin.

http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200208300000AI3_g.jpg


troy

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:13 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

BOOM!

"I hear my train a comin'" - Hendrix Version
"Train kepta rollin' all night long" - Aerosmith version
"The train it won't stop rollin' no it cou'nt slow down" - Jetrho Tull

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:16 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

"drivin that train..." Hunter/Garcia

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:17 AM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

there will be some monsters comin off africa, cape verde season will not be slow. also why are some sayin el nino is strong saw some sat. photos today, and its weak looking. dolly will become major hurricane down the road.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:56 AM
tomorrow

new model runs don't have dolly trying to lift north so much.. which goes in line with what i had in mind. i know they keep mentioning that it could intensify quickly.. but here's my take: at such a low latitude, the rate of strengthening will be below the climatological rate. how far north dolly does drift off its westward movement axis will have huge implications for its future. if it stays at low latitude, it can plow into the caribbean late next week, no problem.. but if it drifts north, it will probably miss the islands north as a much weaker system. since it would be about 8-12 days away from possibly reaching the u.s., dont have any real opinion on it at this point.
closer to home there are three areas among which at least one tropical system should emerge.
first is 93L down in the SW caribbean. convection died overnight yet again, but every day when it comes back it looks more and more ominous. there seems to be a broad surface low down there which has a fair chance of developing if it can start sustaining convection.
the system east of the bahamas is now around 25/68, moving w to wnw. convection keeps refiring overnight and the IR2 pics are confirming earlier visibles suggesting that the trades are buckling around the disturbance. this could end up in north or south carolina in a couple of days as a tropical system, but probably a weak one if at all.
the other area of interest is the central gulf. there is a broad sfc low centered near 25/89 that seems to be drifting sw now. convection from the day has gone from sparse to nil, but when it comes back tomorrow it could get the feedback mechanism going and represents yet another tropical cyclone development threat.
other things down the road.. the big tutt low east of bermuda which is causing the nasty shear jet that is waiting for dolly if it goes north.. is forecast by some models to be the focal area for future development. an amplification out near 50w and a tropical wave seem to be involved in this. i only saw late gfdl runs showing this, so it may be crap.
westpac.. genevieve is about out of steam, fausto is over marginal waters north of hawaii and may be reforming, ele is getting very strong near the dateline. disturbance 92E south of mexico will probably end up as hernan and harrass the riviera or baja over the weekend.
westpac typhoons are going up near and south of japan.. this teleconnects to atlantic storms threatening the east coast.. doesnt bode well for the u.s. if anything gets through.
HF tallahassee, fl 0452z30august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 11:18 AM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly

Things have gotton off to early start:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 12:00 PM
Texas Heads Up for Next Week...

Shawn ought to appreciate this - but don't get yer hopes up too high. Nearly every model on the potential genesis site develops a low which moves into the central TX coast at the end of the run period. Early indications are that it would be at most a Tropical Storm, but could bring some 5-8" rainfall if it plays out. It will either be the E or F storm if it develops. Now where does it come from?

a) SW Caribbean?
b) surface low in Central GoM?
c) wave in eastern Gulf?
d) something lifting out of Boc?
e) Combination of SOME of the Above?

I'm not that good. But when 5 or 6 models show you something similar, it's at least a 40/60 bet that something is going to happen. Could it be further SW or NE? That's anyone's guess, but the idea is out there.

Steve

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 30 2002 01:16 PM
Dolly near hurricane status

As time goes by Dolly has continued to get better organized and hurricane status is more likely now.The track still on a general west one will bring Dolly more closer to the islands and be a real threat.The shear is not that strong and tracking on low latituds it will evade the more strong shear to the north.From here in Puerto Rico I am definitly watching all what is going on with Dolly but still is a bit early to say that we here will have a landfall.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:37 PM
Re just east of winward islands

Ne one notice that convection complex. its been there scence last night and it has not deminished at all. On sat loops it appeer there might be a circulation forming. We could get another labor storm.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:53 PM
Re: Thoughts and Comments?

The more advisories the NHC puts out, the more they are leaning towards a WESTward track...not a WNW track. Now the models are split between the two tracks. I do not think that I would be so quick to call this one a "fishspinner". If it continues on this track, then Dolly will more than likely intensify as it will be in a more favorable environment than they thought it would be earlier. Also, as the NHC has discussed, it stays ON this Westward track for the next 72 hours, it may just bring it closer to the US. All of this is up in the air as far as the models are; however, for right now all we have to do is LOOK at Dolly to see which direction she is headed. I think the models will be more important down the road as (and IF) she approaches any land areas. I just think it's too early for the models to really give an accurate track at this point.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 02:56 PM
GOM LOW

That low in the gulf is banding. If it gains convection it may pop. any thoughts anyone?

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 30 2002 03:12 PM
Re: GOM LOW

Kinda reminds me of that tiny, convection free, Tropical Depression Four of August 2000!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 03:17 PM
Re: I'm inclined to agree, Jason.

rich ya mean the one off yhe FL coast that year

btw dolly is lookin nice...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 03:28 PM
East of Islands

Typical of NHC this yr, here is this huge convective complex just east of the islands...probably just due to divergence,,,but they could at least mention it and clarify, right?

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 03:29 PM
Re: Dolly hotting up fast....

All you got to do is look at the IR this am....here comes a real capeverder.

IHS,

Bill

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:01 PM
Re: GOM LOW

"That low in the gulf is banding. If it gains convection it may pop. any thoughts anyone?"

Just one: oh crap.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:09 PM
Re: GOM LOW

elaborate colleen.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:11 PM
Re: GOM LOW

they have a plane scheduled for 1800z tommorow



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:18 PM
Re: GOM LOW

Just a few comments on all the non Dolly activity...points of interest this am were: NE of Puerto Rico- latest Sat,=. pics. suggest the shear machine is winning that battle right now as it moves west.
East of Bahamas: a Bastardi point of interest...this still moving generally west , but dropping its convection along the way, new convection growing arond the circulation now, last nights convection still in place where it was...slow development potential, if any.
GOM: a vigorous upper trough is easily seen on water vapor pics. Nothing there now as far as surface features go.
SW Carribean: the llc of that is now over land as it moves generally west.
Dolly: Looking like a classic Cape Verde Storm
EDS.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:35 PM
Re: GOM LOW

Classic Cape Verde. Classic.

And, wouldn't be surprised despite the problems down the road with shear that this lady doesn't become an Intense Classic Cape Verde.. this is no understudy waiting in the wings, she is begging to go center stage.

Unreal beautiful. Can't look at her pulling herself together and not think back over so many Cape Verde storms of the past.

Enjoy her now.. cause she's going to break a few hearts a long the way.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:36 PM
changes

an amplification out in the central atlantic is going to erode the subtropical ridge early next week. basically dolly has to stay down and not move wnw for the meanwhile, as amplifications out there tend to get most early developing cape verdes. speaking of which, dont think dolly is quite as strong as 55kt. 45 maybe.
second area on my list is the one near 25/70. persistence and the environment ahead, and the fact that it has been trying to develop down to the sfc. if it pops, the east coast gets hit. it has, by the way, been slowing down.
third in terms of imminent interest is the gulf low. dont follow the take that it's like td4 from aug 2000. that was a tight, semiconvective swirl, this one is quite broad. globals have been predicting this for days, now here it is. probably wont do anything until the chaser wave catches up and spikes the convection. movement unsure, mostly west by models, but could be sw or nw. steering env isnt very strong.
sw caribbean--good looking invest yesterday went without convection for too long. the broad sfc low still seems to be there, but mid level stuff is gone. not going to do anything in this basin unless convection comes back. what hernan in the eastpac does should tell what former 93L will.
wave near the islands.. have to mention it. because bastardi did. env ahead isnt half bad, so once it gets by the shear.. well, have to see what it can do. energy from it could easily catch up to the disturbance at 25/70 and spark it.
nw atlantic: gfdl keeps trying to develop a westward moving storm near bermuda... from the upper tutt low working down? strictly gfdl, but there is forecast to be an amplification in the area, so sfc prog might check out.
HF TLH, FL 1632z30august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:37 PM
Re: Greatest threat

Greatest threat over the next 5 days or so could be in our immediate area, IMO...IF the global forcasts the NHC is wanting to put its stock in are correct. In that case a vigorous mid-atlantic trough which could pick up Dolly...would also of necessity cause a ridge to develop to its west closer to the islands and Carribean...things are too unsetteled in those areas for something not to occur, IMO...So don't be surprised if something does pop up west of 75w in the next 4-5 days...This is just a purely personal and totally amatuerish opinion, but I'm looking toward that as a serious possibility.
See you all next week. EDS.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 30 2002 04:40 PM
Re: GOM LOW

I did elaborate.

I just read the Recon Flight Plan, and unless they've changed it, and it wasn't updated, they are going in today: Here are the coordinates for today's flights: 12.5N/80.0W
Tomorrow's coordinates are: 13.0N/82.0W

Also...I just looked at 12:00UTC loop from the Eastern Atlantic, and unless I am not looking at where the center is, it appears that it may have jogged just a bit to the north. Can anyone else see that? I looked at the last 3 coordinates for Dolly: 9.7N/33.7W
9.8N/34.9W
10.4N/37.2W

Seems that between the 2nd and 3rd coordinates, it sure has moved alot. I know it has a high forward motion, but could it have deviated that much in the last 6 hours? Just curious.



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 05:43 PM
Re: GOM LOW



802
NOUS42 KNHC 301600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1200 PM EDT FRI 30 AUG 2002
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUG TO 01/1100Z SEP 2002
TCPOD NUMBER.....02-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 31/1600Z
D. 27.0N 92.5W
E. 31/1600Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT




Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 06:40 PM
further obs

dolly's convection has really died off today. still going, but not like before. dvorak estimates 2.0/3.0 now. this die off is probably a subsidence related. follows that i dont expect dolly to intensify very rapidly next few days, track mostly to the west.
GOM system is drifting west by visibles.. the true story is told on WV. big stream of subsidence from the north, northerly shear, ripping away the convection. upper high over texas lies ahead though, so the unfavorable environment shouldnt persist.
WV tells a complicated story with the system near 25/70. system is sandwiched between upper lows, diffluence aiding the convection, very complicated. if it can get a surface connection going, its a no-brainer, but that still hasnt really happened like it needs to.
SW carib system seems to have transferred most of its energy to the eastpac, will probably develop over there.
by the way, another fairly good wave coming down the pipeline. has a similar signature/profile to dolly's while still over land. maybe an invest in 2-3 days if it can hold together.
HF 1838z30august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 06:56 PM
Gulf low

Well, I said yesterday I thought I saw a gulf low and I did:)!
Intersting that TPC has a recon going out there, nothing is there now, they are usually stingy with Recon resources. Hmmm.

IHS,

Bill

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 07:24 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly

Latest IR image:



SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 30 2002 07:38 PM
I don't see anything in the gulf

I couldn't believe back in 2000 that TD 4 was classified as a TD. It didn't have any convection or storm activity.

Doesn't mean there won't be any in the future.

I think Dolly will be a Hurricane by tomorrow, making her the first Hurricane of the season just before Septemeber rolls around.

SirCane

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly

Maybe Ms. Dolly should be renamed Ms. Dynagel

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 30 2002 07:54 PM
Re: GOM LOW

To Anonymous: Please see the line (#1) where it says "SUSPECT AREA". This flight is for the SW CARRIBBEAN, your post was for the GOM. Also, look at the DATES for which they are valid. They may cancel the one for the GOM tomorrow if it doesn't do anything, but as far as I can tell they have NOT cancelled the one posted below which is for a COMPLETELY DIFFERENT AREA.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 291415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1015 AM EDT THU 29 AUG 2002
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z AUG TO 31/1100Z AUG 2002
TCPOD NUMBER.....02-099

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 30/1700Z A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 02DDA CYCLONE
C. 30/1200Z C. 31/0000Z
D. 12.5N 80.0W D. 13.0N 82.0W
E. 30/1600Z TO 30/2100Z E. 31/0400Z TO 31/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 09:13 PM
Re: Tropical Depression #4 Is now TS Dolly

Give me the old days, there is just to much information out there.Bastardi says watch this or that and it might develope, Lyons can'see anything out there, the national weather service with all of the tools and money at there disposal can't see much happening. This is one very confusing season of nothing but opposing conjecture.Meanwhile living in Stuart Florida , a prone area for hurricanes where there hasn't been one of any significance in 50years, I have seen my hurricane insurance skyrocket. As far as I am concerned where I live we are protected by cutoff lows and troughs that form at the height of hurricane season. It was a better time when a small article mentioned a tropical storm was in the Bahamas and might reach Florida within a few days and then no more information just wait and see.This season will once again be a bust as Steve Weagle , weatherman in palm beach described the trough setting up now to protect Florida again this year.

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 30 2002 09:26 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 31/1600Z
D. 27.0N 92.5W
E. 31/1600Z TO 31/2330Z
F. SFC TO 10000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 01/1200Z
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.


Recon IS scheduled for the GOM tomorrow.

Rich B

StormWarn2000

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Aug 30 2002 09:39 PM
Re: changes

sing along with me to the tune of the Buegels 'Video Killed the Radio Star' ..."dynagel killed the hurricane star"

troy

Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 30 2002 09:48 PM
GOM Tightening?

The latest visible imagery and loops seem to indicate that the circulation in the GOM may be tightening up. However, shower activity is limited, and there is no deep convection associated with the circulation yet. Upper level conditions are not good at present, but as it nears Texas, upper level flow becomes anti-cyclonic and may therefore have less impact on the system.

Rich B

StormWarn2000

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Fri Aug 30 2002 10:22 PM
Dolly forecast #1 (albeit late)

Although Dolly has been classified as a tropical system for a while now, this is only my first forecast on her. And despite all of the hype in both directions (dead Dolly vs. livin' Dolly), I believe NHC and the models may well be out to lunch for the time being.
Discussion
Though Dolly has weakened a bit per NHC (50 vs. 55 knots), I believe Dolly really hasn't touched 55 knots and has been at 50 all day. Convection has decreased somewhat, but not in a mammoth proportion as others have been claiming. The convection and slight disorganization disruption may have occured when some slightly drier air was sucked into Dolly's north and northwest side eariler today. This was present on water vapor imagery. This disruption, however, appears to have paused for now. Dolly may maintain her current strength for now or strengthing may occur later tonight.
Track discussion
NHC seems to be very bullish on this system eventually turning towards the wnw, but I have doubted their track forecast for a while now. They say they are using the more "realiable" global models over the tropical models. However, it should be noted that the majority of the global models have initialized this system too far north since the beginning. So, given Dolly's low-latitude, I believe there is a strong possibility that Dolly could continue westward through 60 hours with only very small track flucuations. Beyond that, an upper-level trough is forecasted to approach the system. This could cause it to move more to the nw for a short period of time, however, it may not fully recurve the system after 72 hours. I only expect a small nw flucutation to occur in 61-72 hours. Also, if Dolly continues moving west as I forecast and remains weak, the effects of this trough would be minimal. Nonetheless, I still believe this trough will not be able to do the job of recurving Dolly. I Expect a bend back towards the wnw or possibly w after 72 hours. NHC has not hinted as to what may happen after the nw flucuation, but I believe that this feature will not recurve Dolly. Also, the Bermuda High has had a tendency to build in very strongly and rapidly after troughs lift out this year. This should also be monitored if Dolly does not recurve since it would shunt her west and possibly provide a favorable area for rapid intensification. Thus, all interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dolly over the weekend.
Intensity forecast:
Initial: 50 knots
12 hours: 50 knots
24 hours: 55 knots
36 hours: 60 knots
48 hours: 65 knots
72 hours: 65 knots
*It is important to acknowledge that large errors can occur, and are likely, at 48-72 hour periods.*
Next forecast: 10 or 11 PM

Thoughts and comments needed, and I like I said, we may see NHC change their tune on this eventually.

Also, the system ne of the Bahamas could develop slowly over the next few days.

Kevin

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 30 2002 11:08 PM
Re: GOM LOW / Colleen and Anonymous

Rich, I know that. I was pointing out that there are TWO different areas they are investigating. One is the GOM which is scheduled for tomorrow, and the other one which I posted was scheduled for TODAY in the SW Carribbean. The dates are different. Today is the 30th, tomorrow is the 31st. But you knew that.

While Dolly is doing whatever it is she is doing, the area near the Bahamas is looking better and better. It has even started what might be called "banding" and trying to beome a low pressure area. We need to watch this one carefully.





Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 31 2002 12:19 AM
Convection trying to refire with Dolly

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Looks like Dolly may make a comeback but will it be a brief burst or will be a trend for more convection to refire near the center.And also it is moving west and not going up and that is because of the steering as it is more weak.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 12:20 AM
Re: Convection trying to refire with Dolly



Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 31 2002 02:48 AM
Undecided Dolly...forecast #2 (difficult forecast)

Just an update on Dolly...over the past hour convection has really come back on strong with Dolly, but an LLC is difficult to find due to the lack of visible satellite imagery. It appears that the convection is either north of what is a bare LLC, or the LLC is uniformly under the convection and is a half a degree or a degree further north. However, Dvorak T-numbers have fallen to 1.5/2.5 and there is a possibility that Dolly is a very vigorous tropical wave with winds around 40 knots. We will know more by the morning...for now, my earlier forecast remains unchanged. However, depending on how Dolly fares overnight, adjusments will be made in my morning forecast. I'm getting the drift that timing will be everything here.

Kevin

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 04:34 AM
my take

1. dolly is and has been a tropical storm all along. when you see the low cloud field turning the entire way around the storm, this is obvious.
2. 11pm advisory has dolly well north of the previous path. apparently when all the convection quit this afternoon they got a look at the low level center and have it tagged at nearly 12N. personally think that is a little overdone, but dolly certainly doesnt seem to be moving due west.
3. dolly should reach the SW jet ahead of the TUTTin 2-3 days. i dont see there being enough of an all-around trough out there to recurve the system, but until it weakens enough to turn back into the low level flow i suspect it will gain a good bit of latitude. dont think it will hit the islands.
other items of interest:
sw caribbean system is in the eastpac now.. but some disturbed weather is up in the NW carib now. watching for any kind of persistence.
system east of the bahamas essentially unchanged, moving slowly wnw. upper lows nearby making its cloud pattern confused, persistent convection and low level wind field curvature not really improved. as it gets further west it should become dissociated with the upper lows and do something new.. either die or develop.
i agree with bill's take on the gulf low. it has no convection.. reminiscent of those july lows we watched for days on end that never amounted to anything. this one is moving sw, should end up in mexico as nothing in a few.
wave entering the islands is under heavy shear. have to see what it has left once it gets further west.
wave about to emerge from africa is interesting looking. maybe something if it doesnt collapse off the coast.
westpac typhoons are running west to east asia. this teleconnects to danger on our coast. ele in the centpac is moving north, though.. wonder what that means? maybe a central atlantic trough?
thats the only feasible support i can conjure for dolly to be an early recurver, though the fact that it formed so far east is a reason within itself...
HF TLH 0432z31august

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 11:08 AM
Re: my take

Woke up early this morning and looked at Goes-8. Wave in NW Caribbean, pulsing action at 26/73, 30/60, 20/60, 10/55 - looks like a slow march. 26/73 has to be watched. This could easily be a threat to the SE Coast for heavy rain if nothing else. Anything that might happen in the Gulf won't be evident until Sunday. However, if something becomes apparent, there exists a TS landfall possibility for Tues. or Wed. I haven't looked at this morning's model runs yet to see where everything is going, but I'll get to do that when I wake back up i a few hours.

I don't have a call on Dolly right now one way or another. Earlier, she was looking like a threat to the northern Islands, but NHC says no on the 5am. Critical for Dolly is where her low level center is - assuming she has one, and what strength she's at in 72-96 hours. 50/50 threat or fish spinner right now. If her motion continues WNW then even more NW, the threat is probably over. Original thinking had this motion then a turn back to the west.

All in all, there's a lot of stuff to watch this Labor Day Weekend in the tropics. And speaking of Labor Day, don't forget there are insane drunks all over the roads this weekend. So party it up but make sure you don't do anything stupid behind the wheel. Watch out for the other guy too.

Steve

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 31 2002 11:46 AM
Re: my take

Dolly seems to have gotten herself back together for now. She is no longer looking nearly as ragged as she was last night/early this morning; in fact, she is looking quite symmetrical and well formed. Figures. NHC issues their 5:00AM Advisory, then Dolly decides to put on her make-up. The storms in the Bahamas have also refired after pretty much dying out early this morning; there is a huge complex of storms out there.
Well, one thing's for sure this Labor Day Weekend: the NHC and our local NWS mets will be working hard.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 31 2002 12:01 PM
BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD

Looks like we will have a busy weekend ahead. Dolly does seem to be refiring. Who knows what she is going to do. Convection also firing up closer to home just east of the Bahamas and just west of Jamaica.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 12:50 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD

I dont have really much to say.Everything that I said will happen has from 3 weeks back and even since May. Dolly
has been a easy forcast for us. I called for her to possibly become a TS then deminish and then re classified around the 2nd or just after then feel a new trough next week and out to sea more she goes. I expect her to be declassified by tonight or sunday morning. Then late monday be reclassified when the recon goes in as she moves to arund 18 and 56. Her speed should slow down a tad to 12mph more less later today thru labor day,, but all this has been mentioned by me from last weeks posts.
Also as of last week my next system i said that will form Monday more less will move eventually into mexico and should be more of a threat there, but I should say that a hurricane in the eastern pac will form a trough off the w coast there then a ridge over mexico then another mid level trough over the N gulf, this could want to stall the system in the western gulf as it awaits the digging of a trough to its N.
scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 31 2002 02:19 PM
Re: BUSY WEEKEND AHEAD

Scott....what can I say. I am going to do this: IF you are right and Dolly is de-classified and then re-classified, I will pat you on the back (so you don't have to do it constantly) forever. However, I do not think that Dolly was or is an "easy forecast" at all. For crying out loud, the NHC is having a hard enough time with her track and intensity. Being a meteorologist yourself, you of all people should know that tropical weather is not and NEVER WILL BE an exact science. Atmospheric changes can occur at any given time (re:Andrew) and take us all by surprise.

I've been here for 4 years, and every year you take every chance you get to pat yourself on the back. It is very hard to take someone seriously when everything they say is a tribute to themselves.

John and Mike...if you think I am out of line here, kick me off, I don't care anymore. I'm just tired of it.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 02:23 PM
invest 94L

nrl has put up an invest on the system east of florida at 27/74. it's headed north of due west, looks like. convection today is going strong and focused, low level windfield is more distorted away from the convection today. probably a go right on our doorstep.
dolly looks smaller, since it has shrunken in areal coverage the WNW movement is obvious. some globals that recurve it are killing dolly as a system, entraining the energy in another system near bermuda, sending that west. be interesting to see if dolly can negotiate the shear that lies 24-48hr ahead.
disturbance in NW caribbean is just brewing convection at this point. W gulf low is essentially unchanged, moving west along 26N. former 93L in the caribbean is over in the eastpac looking like it wants to be hernan's sister. wave about to leave africa still looks good and bundled, probably an invest tomorrow. bastardi also mentioned a trouble area near the southern leewards, but i didnt notice it.
HF 1421z31august

Kevin
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 31 2002 02:41 PM
Dolly forecast #3

Dolly is going to dissipate by Monday at the latest for one reason we do know, and one reason we don't. The reason we do know was caused by the one that is being debated. Dolly has shrunk to a very small and tighthly wound system, making it very prone to shear and dry air in the middle of the Atlantic. Dolly may strengthen more over the next 24 hours, but more likely it will stand pat. After that, the upper-level trough will meet it and Dolly will dissipate. There is a small chance that regeneration could occur further north. Also, recent QuikSCAT imagery indicated winds no higher than 35 knots and no closed circulation, thus, Dolly may already be degenerated into a tropical wave. All intrests in the extreme northern Lesser Antilles should monitor Dolly/what's left of her until she is north of their latitude. I am lowering intensity to 40 knots...expect NHC to do the same at 11:00 AM.
Initial: 40 knots
12 hours: 40 knots
24 hours: 35 knots
36 hours: 35 knots
48 hours: 25 knots
72 hours: dissipated

Other areas of interest:
A mid-level low is located just east of the Bahamas. A surface low may form in this area later today. Slow development may occur over the weekend. Chance of development: 3/10

An area of disturbed weather continues in the NW Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorm activity is pulsing from time to time and is disorganized. No development is expected.

A low in the western Gulf of Mexico has no significant convection at this time, thus, development is not expected as this low moves west.

A new tropical wave has nearly emerged off of the west African Coast. Conditions appear favorable for slow development over the next few days. Chance of development: 4/10

Kevin


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 31 2002 03:13 PM
Re: invest 94L

It will be interesting to see what happens with the new invest. That area has been persistant for the last few days but not a lot of attention has been focused on it until now. I know they have been watching it, of course, but being that it has died down at times and then refired at others, I can see why they waited to put up an invest on it. I think that this one, being so close to home at the current time, is one to watch and watch carefully.

As for Dolly, well....who knows.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 31 2002 03:30 PM
Hey Gary!!!!

I am trying to get into the website to see if the models have done any runs on 94L. The OSU site is "not responding" at this time. If you have any better luck, let me know. If I get anything, I'll let you know. You know?

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Aug 31 2002 03:54 PM
Edouard north of Bahamas ???

As Dolly is winding down the attention should shift to the north of Bahamas system.A recon plane will investigate this afternoon that system to see if already TD#5 has formed.All interests in the east coast should monitor what is going on with this system.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 31 2002 03:58 PM
DEPRESSION ALREADY?????

Visible satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather centered about 180 miles east-northeast of the northern Bahamas is becoming better organized. A reconnaissance plane will be in the area this afternoon to determine if a tropical depression has formed. This system is moving slowly toward the west-northwest.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 31 2002 04:49 PM
Re: DEPRESSION ALREADY?????

As I posted in this forum yesterday, this area was a favorite of Bastardi, and I noted as the mid atlantic trough develops at about 65w a ridge would strengthen west of that, I think the bahamas system has a 50/50 chance to go...the sat pics. suggest mostly westward movement. EDS

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Aug 31 2002 05:07 PM
Re: invest 94L

what is lyons on twc lookin at, he says its moving nw going to go to carolinas, and he says its not doin to much. its heading mostly west and becoming better organized. miss john hope on twc. lyons is pretty poor.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Aug 31 2002 05:16 PM
Re: invest 94L

just looked at long term sat loops and the bahamas system is moving wnw over the long period; also the latest floater picture on visible mode surely spells trouble for dolly...the shear machine seems to be in force there from the visible evidence. EDS.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Sep 01 2002 02:47 PM
Re: invest 94L

Dont know what Lyons is looking at...no I do. He is looking at the official forecast and statement. Maybe they should forget about paying him and just scroll the latest nhc info across the bottom of the screen.

Maybe they could let Cantore or someone else there who likes to explain what is going on and let Lyons rest.. I don't turn on TWC to see what my weather radio says. I want MORE.

And... someone there just said "strong fetch should be felt along the florida coast" or something like that...words not exact.. like is that the possible understatment of the year and dolly showed RAPID intensification on my sats tho it seems I am able to do 3 things onloine at once and Lyons cant.

Ya know


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