CFHC
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| Sun Sep 01 2002 07:14 PM |
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Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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TD#5 has formed. Watches/Warnings will go up at 5... more to come later.
Melbourne Radar - Long Range
Dolly still is moving wwn, even looking slightly better than before. Still I think she's a fish spinner.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 07:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Yes, and I still believe NE Florida will be the landfalling point for this storm. I figure that Cape Canaveral to Kings Island, Georgia should be a landfalling destintation for this storm. I still believe Central Florida should get some weather out of this one.
African wave: There is a T number of 1.0 on this wave...will have to watch as it gets further west.
Dolly also may not recurve fully...it appears that the C. Atlantic trough will turn it north, but not east. We also need to keep an eye for this one.
Things are getting active now!
Also...my parents and I are going to Daytona Beach. We'll be leaving around 4:30 or 5:00 I figure...so I'm expecting we'll get some squally weather. This is gonna be cool!
Kevin
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 07:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Ok, call me nuts, but it STILL looks like it is going WEST.
If this storm was bigger and moving a little bit faster, I would think that it would have a greater chance of being lifted WNW and NW. As it is...it's barely taking baby steps. I think like Ed said that this thing will start to crank up again like it did last night. It died down yesterday about 5pm, but then roared back to life in the evening hours.
Time will tell. I think we also need to keep an eye on the Gulf side of FL. What if the two decide to meet???
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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This is from the NWS/Melbourne 2:45pm Update:
"RECON FLIGHT DATA SINCE THIS MORNING HAS SHOWN A BROAD CIRCULATION
JUST EAST OF FL AND THE BULK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CLOSE ENUF TO
AREA TO LIE WITHIN MLB RADAR RANGE. LOWEST PRESSURE READINGS HAVE
BEEN ONLY AROUND 1015 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE IN THE HIGH RANGE
FOR TD INITIATION. HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM GULF STREAM
WATER AND RECENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER WOULD
SUGGEST STRENGTHENING OR FURTHER ORGANIZATION. ADDITIONAL RECON
FLIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE ABLE TO CLOSE A SPECIFIC CENTER. FOR
NOW WILL PROCEED WITH FORECAST REFLECTING MODELS TAKING SYSTEM ON AN
INCREASINGLY NW TRACK WHILE APPROACHING THE FLORIDA COAST. THERE
APPEARS TO BE MODEL CONSISTENCY WITH TAKING SYSTEM NORTHWEST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN PRESSURE FIELD AS SHORTWAVE
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD. BEYOND 48 HOURS MOVEMENT
LESS CERTAIN AS BLOCKING RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHEAST US
COAST.
1. They are NOT sure that the system will head WNW or even NW after 48 hours.
2. They believe it may be strengthening because of the Gulfstream Waters.
Another thing....on the long range Melbourne Radar Loop, is the spinning just east of Daytona Beach where they think the center of circulation is right now? Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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No doubt about it, I think that fl. will be land fall for this system. I also believe as others that the GS could help to quickly strenghten TD5. Early this morning on another site I posted that I felt there was a possibility that land fall could be central fl. and that it could make a B- line up the center of our state or keep heading west, then exit into the GOM and than get pulled back to the NE and end up in the Carolinas .
Any comments on this scenario? Pinwheel Toni
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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If it makes you feel any better, TWC said the same thing. ;-)
BTW...are we REALLY under a Tropical Storm Watch?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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In reply to:
Because if it is, it's moving WEST. Not WNW, not NW, just plain old WEST.
It appears the 'official' forecasters are looking at models, not radar or satellite. Hell, this one is close enough to practically *watch* out the window, but I'll bet the officials will forget to do that too. I have looked at all of the models I can find, and so far, none of them seem to realize there is any kind of a storm brewing out there....Oh well, I guess that is why our maker gave us eyes, ears and brains...so we can form our own conclusions.....
Richard
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Hey Colleen, looks like it is moving W. might get close. Nice to see you posting today.
Pinwheel Toni
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:38 PM |
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TD #5
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5 p.m. Advisory, 29.0 N, 79.2 W, Winds 35
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:41 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Just got a call from a friend that works at the Melbourne Airport. Two Dyno-Gel planes have just taken off heading East
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:42 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE
FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:44 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Bruce: quick! Call the local news stations! Let them know that if this storm falls apart all of the sudden, they'll know why.
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:45 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Just joking
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:47 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Look at the Strike possibilities: East Central Florida has the highest....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 08:48 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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LOL....Bruce, you sucker punched me on that one, dude!
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:03 PM |
Re: TD #5
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Looking at the radar loop, where is the center? Just west of the heavy convection?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:04 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Last post for a while.
ARE THEY FREAKING BLIND???? I JUST watched Kristin Dodd point to the CoC and say "it's moving to the WNW" and it is VERY evident that it is NOT. As she was pointing TO the WNW, TD#5 went right by her to the WEST.
I would expect that track forecast to be shifted to the right if it's still moving that way in the next few hours.
I may be completely wrong on this. But I swear it is moving due west.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:06 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Bruce...if it's anywhere near where Kristin Dodd said it was, it's right in the middle, underneath the convection.
Of course, it could be heading for the moon for all we know right now..
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:16 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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Daytona Beach has the highest strike possibility as of right now at 47 and Cedar Key on the W coast has a 15.
I still feel that there is a possibility that td5 will continue to head w and exit into the GOM.
Is there anyone else that feels this might be a possibility?
Pinwheel Toni
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:53 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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TD 5, where will he go?
i think the key to that is how well he develops! If he become a well developed system with deep convection i think we may see him take a turn to the NW and move inland or skirt the coast somewhere near the FL / GA border up to Brunswick. However, if he doesnot become a system with a lot of very deep convection i think we will see him take a more westerly course, and move onshore somewhere between Daytonna and Jacksonville.
As far as intensity goes... well an early landfall then he will be near 40 or 45 mph, but if he heads further North then perhaps nearer 50 mph.
Rich B
StormWarn2000
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 09:59 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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The models (this is from the NHC Discussion) are all over the place with this thing. They referred to them I believe as a "squashed spider" as far their tracks go. I just looked at the Melbourne weather loop, and I do not see any change in westward movement right now.
As far as the NHC goes, I don't think they have a good handle on it either. Just read the discussion, and you'll see what I mean.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:03 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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LOL!
Did you catch the discussion of this storm? Stewart (NHC) called it squashed spider.
Thought that was kinda funny.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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from 5pm #5 discussion
In reply to:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS WITH THE PATTERN BEING MORE
REPRESENTATIVE OF A SQUASHED SPIDER. THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM
MODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND NEAR ST.
AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE
MODELS ARE SPREAD ALL ABOUT THE COMPASS
love the squashed spider analogy. Weather makes much more since to me when explained as if I was 5!:)
troy
| squirralee |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:16 PM |
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Re: TD #5
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People should not mess with mother nature...things happen for a reason
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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looks like it has moved due east in the last few radar loops,maybe its just a flux, anybody notice it
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I don't know...it's hard to see any possibility of northerly movement in the WV loops.
I'd guess it gets torn apart and just gives us a couple days of rain.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Looks like the center is relocating further east.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:48 PM |
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td 5
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on a slow computer so not going to make a huge post. there isnt a whole lot to push td 5 inland, so all of that gulf of mexico business is probably hogwash. probably drift near the coast, most likely landfall point i'd go with is st augustine. not big in the way of winds, but probably put down a good bit of rain with the slow movement. not going to be a bad storm unless it deepens a lot, and fast. needs a clear cut cdo, not just the pulsing convection.
HF navarre, fl 2245z01september
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 10:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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#5. To me, it appears to be more or less stationary possibly heading slightly NW. I base this off of the Goes-8 Vis and IR (last 15 and 30 frames respectively. Apparently the convection was bulging west, warmed up, fired up again, now warming again.
So where does it go? I don't see it hitting Florida at this point. It is possible the system could brush the GA/SC Coast or further north in NC as a TS. Some models take it inland and move it west. I don't really see that right now, though 4-5 days down the road, anything could happen (big trof supposed to come down in 72 hours). #5 could just head on NE after stalling and become a fish spinner or a possible threat to Bermuda. #5 could also get stuck as per GFDL.
I'll be watching the Gulf as originally planned tomorrow thru Thursday. Some of the models have backed off on development in the Gulf, favoring generally lower pressure throughout the Gulf instead of tied to a closed system. I haven't checked out the long-range ETA yet. Eta has been most aggressive. For down the line, MRF puts stock in a fairly strong system off the FL SE Coast in 9 days. I doubt anything long-range from the MRF/GFS but I ran across it and figured it was worth noting.
Also worth noting, I just ran a check by Accuweather and JB is putting the Texas GC on notice with something like, "If I was on the TX Coast, I'd keep an eye open." I've had mine opened and focused.
"...with my good eye closed." - Soundgarden
Steve
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 01 2002 11:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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actually I see that or at least that is what I thought I was seeing?????
I was searching for another satellite loop thought that something was wrong . looks like it is being pulled somewhat to the East.
Convection does not look as good either. Is somethig going on here that we don't know about? Pinwheel Toni
Also there is a long chain of convection to its south. Lookfrom theW GOM to the E Coast, almost looks like they are trying to create a huge spin
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Where, oh where, did the rain go? It's vanishing before our very eyes.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide.asp?loc=kmco&seg=LocalWeather&prodgrp=RadarImagery&product=RadarLoop&prodnav=none&pid=none
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:45 AM |
GOM....Could there be?
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Could there possibly be something wanting to form in the central gulf? Steve, I know you are watching what is going on out there. Joe B. seems to be concerned with the activity in the gulf. I haven't check out any of the buoys out there but Joe B. did say that the pressures are falling. I don't know what will happen,more than likely nothing, but it has sure made for an interesting holiday weekend.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:49 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I believe that the "squashed spider" analogy was someone's way of giving us a little humor....it sure worked for me! ;-)
As far as movement goes, it really hasn't moved all that much, at least from what I can tell. It kinda looks like it's losing its shape a bit, maybe elongating; however, on the last TWC Tropical Update, Mike Sidel said the sectors in the last frame had been changed...maybe that's why it looks like it was going east or south.
I'm not sure what the future holds here for TD#5. It's not moving much, the pressures are somewhat high (which NWS mentioned in their 2:35pm update, saying that this may be because the center could be reforming).
One thing's for sure as far as these things go: I have learned that if you sit and watch the loops all day long, you will have a very large and painful headache. This is also known a HurricaneItis. This conditon may be include the following symptoms:
1. You're head is always cocked in a WEST or WNW direction.
2. When other men around you (this is for the gentlemen here) mention "models", you automatically respond: "They are not reliable" or "The GFDL Model does best in this type of situation".
3. You wake up at 3:01AM and stay up until 3:50am so you won't miss the Tropical Update.
4. When someone gets something in their eye, you ask how low their pressure is, on a scale of 1-5.
5. You have a map at home with all red dots on it indicating all the past storms for each month of the hurricane season.
6. You know what 290/15 means.
Ok, anyone else experiencing these symptoms?
| Jason M |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:49 AM |
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Re: GOM....Could there be?
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The discussions for both Dolly and newly formed tropical depression #5 are now available at Tropical Weather Watchers. I have also updated the detailed Atlantic discussion which you may want to read as there is the potential for GOM development.
BTW, if you're having any problems with the forecast center just let me know.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Steve....didn't it do that yesterday for a little while? Kinda died out then came back to life later on?
Maybe Bruce WASN'T kidding. ;-)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 01:02 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Hi Colleen.....I've been gone for awhile.....nice to see you're still around......yes TD#5 does have a history of simmering down around this time of day and then refiring......who knows what this baby will do.....that's why we're here...right????
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 01:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Colleen.....it might have helped if I'd logged in.....huh?????? It's me......k___g.......we used to chat on Mike Anderson's page.....it's been a few years.......
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 01:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Colleen, you're suffering from post stress traumatic syndrome tropical storm deliriousness.... I think about 50% of the regulars on this board get it during the month of Sept...hehe
TD 5 going to aggrevate the stew out of you Central Floridians.... models are having a hard time with this one with the weak steering currents..... It certainly not going to affect us in the Northern Gulf Coast, this one's for the east coast, if anybody... might end up being a fish spinner.. who knows... last night I would have bet money it would have been inland on the C. Florida area by this time as it was moving to the west...
Speaking of the GOM, lots of convection in the north central GOM. Buoy data tonight not that impressive to indicate anything going on.....
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 01:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Colleen:
Yeah. Convection has been up and down. It's actually coming back a bit now which is different from when I last posted.
ShawnS,
Yeah. I have been waching. 7:30 IR's in the area show a distinct 'bend' to all the clouds. I still don't think the surface low that's moved across the Gulf will end up becoming the center of whatever forms. I was thinking (and I either posted it here or US WW/HH) that the possibility existed for a Tuesday/Wed TS landfall between Galveston and New Iberia. Originally, it looked like the pattern would open up so that there would be somewhat of a blocking position to the north leaving whatever low formed < 100 miles onshore for the first day or so. This now would depend on where it went inland.
It's still hard to say there's definitely going to be classification, but the way heat energy and moisture have been building on in, things have been setting up for development. I haven't looked at the buoys yet. Last check here in town had 29.98 and winds E and NE gusting to 17.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 01:14 AM |
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td 5/next systems
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td 5 is getting westerly shear now, keeping the development in check. convection is less symmetrical but still going on the east side with some vigor.
dolly will probably go too far north to be a threat, unless it gets ripped to shreds and goes well west in the low level flow.
the new emergent system off africa looks nice, convection staying up fairly well. still betting on an invest. bastardi says it will have a better chance of making it west, whatwith the central atlantic trough getting lost.
well, all you gulf folks will like this. the wave passing hispaniola has a good bit of energy far north on its axis.. can see this causing trouble as it passes cuba next couple of days.
thats the basin.
by the way, fausto is back in the centpac. spiffy.
HF navarre, fl 0109z01september
| Jason M |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:12 AM |
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Edouard Develops!!!!!!!
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WTNT35 KNHC 020557
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A CCA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
...CORRECT TO ADD INTERMEDIATE IN HEADER AND TO CHANGE 35 MPH
TO 40 MPH IN REPEAT SECTION...
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF TITUSVILLE FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO
BRUNSWICK GEORGIA.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER A SMALL
AREA EAST OF THE CENTER. THUS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS
BECOME TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD.
AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF ST AUGUSTINE
FLORIDA.
EDOUARD IS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 6 MPH...AND A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 60 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 79.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 11:29 AM |
Re: GOM....Could there be?
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ok...my eyes felt a little blurry yesterday... your point?
lol
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 11:34 AM |
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E storm
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Nice to wake up to the E storm.
Can we get some real discussion in here on where we really think its going to go... Not just complaining about the models, would like to hear some real thoughts..
Interesting to see it really did develop and now seems a bit stalled... they love sayin that don't they "the poorly defined center of"
And, who by the way was the first one to call the track a squashed spider.. want to know?
Labor Day Weekend has been more fun than the last few weeks..
Bobbi
ps...hi hurric lol...making this one easy for u
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 12:01 PM |
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Re: E storm
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That was Stewart in the 5:00 PM discussion describing the tracks of the models yesterday.About the storm for now weak steering will not make it move much so it will meaender around but I think that this storm will not be a cane because the shear will increase in the comming days.
Hi Bobbi I didn't see your name at the bottom so I am here too to talk tropics as always.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Check out the latest GFDL run on Edouard, takes its across Florida near Jacksonville as a Cat 2 and exits into the Gulf heading west near the coast, reaching Cat 4. I am not saying this will happen, just letting everyone know what the GFDL is showing.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:10 PM |
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Re: E storm
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Latest vis sat loop on Edouard shows some significant convection developing near the center of circulation to the east... This has occurred during the past hour or so... As for having a poorly defined center... it didn't look all that poorly defined to me on the vis sat loop. Shear is not allowing any convection to develop on the west side of the system.
Last couple of frames has the top of the convection covering some of its center... If anything it might be drifting very slowly to the NNW or N...
| Dana |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:20 PM |
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Dial "911"!!! I think I've got it!!!
|
 ATMOSPHERICATIULOSIS: A psychological and at times physiological disorder associated with small web groups located
in the United States generally, but not restricted to, areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
Acute symptosis tends to peak during the summer months with a rapid decline in late fall
depending on weather conditions. Diagnosis can be difficult in the onset but are readily apparent
as atmospheric conditions complicate and teleconnect. Symptoms vary little between individuals
which experience prophetic observations of satellite information. Some aggressive behavior may
become apparent due to contradictory governmental reporting. Most possess multiple
informational devises to feed their addictive behavior and some zealot staring at their CPU’s
have been reported. Currently there is no cure but it has been advised to keep afflicted
individuals comfortable with an occasional show of sympathy during periods of little tropical
activity.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:21 PM |
Re: E storm
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10:15am here in Fernandina Beach, partly cloudy and very little wind. Yesterday I thought I was going to get my first taste of a tropical storm, today, well it doesn't look like it. The local news stations don't even have much coverage. What is everyone's thoughts?
TH
| garyb |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Good radar shot of center, not moving at this time.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kjax.shtml
Look at the gfdl
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090206-edouard05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:26 PM |
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Re: E storm
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GOM awfully distrubed today too, especially in the northern central section... buoys not indicating anything going on but rain.
After watching more loops on Edouard, I'm not sure if its moving at all... looks to be stationary... hard to pick up any drift direction...still has a very nice signature on sat..... watch out if shear were to let up...
GFDL is always making monsters out of nothing... has done it several times this year, and nothing significant has come to fruition....... yet
| Mary K. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Hi I am Mary K. I am not new to the site, jus have not posted since last season. The storm looks a bit puny. It has the appearance of having two distinct centers of circulation on the dopplar out of Tampa. But, one can see the circulation is quite broad. It is amazing to me that they are bothering to upgrade it. If I had to bet on a landfall (which I don't) I would bet it will go up the coast and end up in Nagshead. The local channel news out of Tampa Bay, does not think we will feel any results from this storm. I tend to agree with him at this point.
| garyb |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Your right about the gfdl Frank . But interesting scenario any way.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:42 PM |
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TWC and Local News
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I am not happy with the coverage of this storm right now. I know it is just a little tropical storm, but if it were happening in Miami or New Orleans, there would be camera crews all over the place. I just watched the 10:00 update on twc and it tlaked about the storm for about 30 seconds and the local news acts as if it is just a bunch of rain with no trouble at all. My take on all of it is this. What if it were to turn into another allison and stay stationary over Jacksonville for a few days? We are already drenched from the rain we have recieved over the last week and this is going to bring even more. I work on the local fire dept and we are getting updates on the storm faster than twc is reporting them. We got the tropical storm warning our news reported it. Wouldn't it be a horrible thing if this storm decided to stay out in the atlantic for a day or so and developed into a hurricane? I think it would catch everyone off guard. I asked like 10 people who surf if they were going to the beach and they said they had not even heard about the storm. Ok, enough of my ranting.......ok, so now it's stationary? now what? I think it is still going to head this way, but that is just me. BTW, nice to see you back colleen!!!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Garyb.... looking at the GFDL it suggests that a blocking high will drive the system back to the SW across Florida into the GOM... it strengthens the system significantly, and then it heads off in the general direction of NEW ORLEANS...apparently the trough off to the northeast of the system is not deep enough to pick up the storm ... according to the GFDL
Hey Steve, this model should certainly get your attention!!! Guess we better start looking for a SW drift if this is to occur... regardless I have not much confidence in the GFDL... but who knows...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 02:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Hey Garyb.... the GFDL on this system is very interesting and I remember what Elena did back in 1985 when she made a loop in the GOM and busted out butts over here.... all bets are off until this thing starts moving....
Dana, great definition.... I'm sure Colleen will agree with it...
Steve, to early to be sucking dem crawfish heads... where are you and what's your take on the GFDL?
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Gary, funny how you mention surfers. The waves today in Cocoa Beach are much smaller than yesterday. seas and swells at the 41009 bouy are runnin same as yesterday if not a tad bit smaller and shorter periods.
Thats just because of the close proximity to land. Most of us are hopng it pulls north and east so we can be in the fetch window and get some real waves.
weird storm out there thats for sure.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I noticed the same type of thing with yesterdasy 12z run of the gdfl. posted about it on the last news peice. It take sit north then back south.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:27 PM |
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This is NUTS!!!
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The 11:00 AM NHC advisory has the system heading SOUTHWEST after 72 hours! This would bring it back towards the EC of Florida! However...the strike probabilites seem to indicate that by Thursday morning the storm MAY BE OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA! This is crazy...nuts...insane!
I would also caution that on the "D" section of the probabilities there is no chance higher than 7 ANYWHERE.
So...we need to keep a watch on this. That's all we can do.
Ed Dunham also mentioned the possibility of Edouard being 75 miles or so off of the Melbourne coast as a minimal hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday. Looks like a possibility, but at least it will be after today (Labor Day).
Yesterday at Daytona Beach it was a little windier than normal with some squally type clouds. That's about it, but even then, something seemed different about the air.
This is the most exciting Labor Day weekend tropic wise we've seen in a while, that's for sure. You should still enjoy it though!
Kevin
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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foung my original post from yesterday it was the 06z not 12z..anyway even then the gdfl had ole eddie moving north to right off NC then back ssw to near GA/SC.
crazy ole troy said
In reply to:
looking at todays 06 run of the gdfl it does show what would be Eduordo moving north eventually at 48 hours at about Little River around the border of N and S Carolinia (33.6n 78.6w) with about cat 1 strenghth then puts him inland for about 8 hours then it kinda moves him south to about the GA SC border just offsore at 96 hours and inland at about 31.8n 81.3w at 102 hours... just noticed the uniqueness in the model path is all
This is the type of thing, if it pans out and heads back, that will really get people off gaurd...
what y'all think about what it will do?
troy
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:38 PM |
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ROTF
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GFDL! Are you kidding me?
Mother Nature vs. the I-10?
The "Ultimate Storm"?
Widespread destruction from Lake City to Morgan City?
This is a complete doomsday scenario. Many prophecy fanatics have targeted this Sepetember as the beginning of Armaggedon. I'm not convinced as there have been no real steps toward any peace treaties in Jeruselem. However, if I see a storm that attacks the enitre Gulf Coast, uh, maybe I need to rethink something or other.
I agree that Ed is basically stationary. It appears to show erratic movement in the same general area. I clicked on one of the radar links in this thread which actually showed perhaps a wobble to the SE over the span of that radar loop.
I don't see it crossing FL, but GFDL wasn't the only model seeing a high surpressing the convection SW. CMC was doing it the other day as was the AVN.
All in all, it still looks like a fish spinner or perhaps has designs on a liimited brush/landfall somewhere between GA and NC. Problem is the strong trof expected to be near the SE Coast in 48 hours. Ed's position in relation to whatever happens with the trof should be the key to his eventual attack or demise.
As to the Gulf, things are still coming together. I still can't determine if there will be any classified activity by mid-week. The ingredients are in the pot, but the stove is still off. The only hints are the convection and the .07-.15 pressure falls over the last 48 hours. And that was as of the 'wee hours' today. I haven't checked buoys today (NDBC was down when I tried) since I woke back up to see if the trend continues.
I guess I need to get off the "news" and head to the Forum to see what Ed's got to say.
Steve
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 03:38 PM |
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Re: This is NUTS!!!
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Kevin, Go to pg.1 and take a look at my post yesterday. I know that I'm really off in what has actually happened so far but I really felt that it would end up in the GOM. Guess only time will tell, it is a wild thought, but I like to live on the wild side every now and then. Pinwheel Toni
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 04:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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CHECK THIS OUT:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
It shows the NHC BAMM model with an almost identical path to the GFDL cutting across north central Florida into the GOM and the BAMD puts landfall south of Daytona Beach. Any thoughts ?
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 04:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I got an opinion on the models, DON"T pay any attention to them. They are pretty much worthless. Come up with your own opinion of what will happen and it will more than likely be closer to being right than the models will be.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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does anyone have a link to a graphical display ofthe 2 Bams and the lbar etc? basically looking for one that is updated when the new runs are out?. thanks
troy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Joe Bastardi`s noon comment:
http://www.accuweather.com/adcbin/news_index?nav=home&type=jbs
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Shawn S.
I provided the link so other members of this board could visually see the model guidance on this system. I'm sure you heard the old saying,"opinions are like ..." I will not come up with my own "opinion" and you of course are entitled to yours as is everone else. I also believe that the models, NHC and local weather forecasters are not perfect, however I believe it is the best we have. I do not know where this system will end up going, the tropics are full of surprises, as I am sure you are aware of. At least 4 models are taking this system into North Fl or South Ga. The 10am Discussion also mentons this clustering of model guidance. To say all of this is pretty much worthless makes no sense. Do I believe this path into Fl into the GOM 100%? No. Do I believe it is a possibility? Yes, along with all of the other scenarios. However it appears the most favorable at this time based on the models and other factors. Just curious, what is your "opinion" on this storm? If it is morethan likely to be closer to being right than the models, maybe you should inform the NHC. Have a good day !!!!!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:22 PM |
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Bastardi even sounds uncertain.
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I disagree with Bastardi when he says Florida is out of the woods. That is not hardly true. NHC has this one pegged real well through 24 hours. Basically, the storm will only be able to drift north until the trough passes it. After that, the storm should begin to go west and southwest. It could get as far south as Melbourne and could strengthen to as much as 75-80 knots.
So, all bets are off after 24 hours. My feeling is that the north and central coasts of Florida are going to have an unexpected problem on their hands as early as Wednesday.
Kevin
| Mary K. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I am now seeing the southward drift everyone else is talking about. I also saw a spin in the Gulf south of Alabama. This could get very interesting. As some already know. I am no meterologist. I am a hobbiest and I do not expect anyone to take me seriously. I just like to observe and guess based on logic and common sense. I do not have an interest in seeing a hurricane make landfall any where it could harm people.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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actually he writes
In reply to:
Same thing for Edouard tomorrow and Wednesday. What is shear on a track north is not if it dances, then turns south then southwest. Florida is not out of the woods yet, in fact after it tip toes northeast to north into tomorrow, the south path is becoming more likely, then perhaps even southwest. Such a path is a deepening path for a storm like this, for the upper shear from the north and northwest is no longer shear for a storm shifting south, if the direction of the storm is the opposite direction. In fact, it really becomes a problem if the jet considerations are such that the storm is in the synoptic scale upward motion max in the jet exit region.
thenlater in his post he writes
In reply to:
Point is, Florida is out of the woods (actually with the current strength, it's not woods but more like a tangled underbrush) until tomorrow, but do not write this off yet.
his writing may jump around inhis writing but it seems he belives it is possible it could track back sw
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:41 PM |
Tony,Tony,Tony
|
Why is it that eveyone else can bash the models and it is ok but when I do it suddenly there is a problem. All I read on this site is how unreliable the models are and " what is everyone at the NHC thinking" , and yet when I decide to express my opinion it's like I'm the only one who feels this way.I have seen alot of people on this site who have done better on these sytems than the models, I guess you were not one of them.If you want to question or bash me for my thoughts than you will have to wait in line just like all the rest. Just kidding. Actually, I have stated many times that my views on tropical storms are elementary at best. I was just trying to make a little humor with the models just like I have seen so many people on this site do before.Relax, throw down a few beers, fire up the grill, and let's see how all this turns out.
You have a nice day,also.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Kevin,
Thanks for the info. Although we do not know where this will go, I do believe your thoughts have a good possibility of coming true. Just curious as to your thoughts on the graphics link I provided plus I just read on another board that for 2 consecutive runs, the GFS (old MRF) is also showing landfall in the Norht Fl area in about 72 hrs. (in addition to AVN, GFDL, BAMM, and several other models). Thanks !!!!!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 05:54 PM |
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|
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Re: Tony,Tony,Tony
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LOL,
Models, opinions, buttho, nevermind. We all have 'em, wipe 'em and argue 'em.
Bastardi noted that FL was out of the woods in the watch areas FOR NOW. That doesn't mean they will be Wed-Fri if Eddie hangs around for a while. I'm hedging my bet. GA to NC seemed like the ultimate destination, but I'm not so sure anymore. He may die off the east coast of FL, but I'm starting to question whether or not there may be 2 eventual FL landfalls - pensinsula and panhandle.
Edouard is hardly a 'no-brainer' storm. This is one we're going to be talking about all week. I guess something's gotta suffer when the tropics are active. I vote for work and sleep
Steve - having a good day doing NOTHING.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Based on the latest radar images, could Eddie have already begun the "loop" process? Within the past few hours "he" appears to be taking on more of an east-southeasterly course.
BTW, it's good to back and "see" all the "old" folks again. Enjoy your labor day.......k___g
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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from the melb area 1:45 forecast--
TUE-WED...FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF EDOUARD. 12Z
MODELS NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN PREVIOUS RUN SHOWING LITTLE MOTION
OF THE SYSTEM WITH A CLOCKWISE LOOPING PUSHING IT BACK INTO THE
COAST NORTH OF THE AREA. AVN MIGHT BE A TAD QUICKER IN DOING THIS
COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN.
--
this is what makes tracking these things fun.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:13 PM |
Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
|
2pm Labor Day Update-Here in Fernandina it remains partly cloudy, but the wind has definitely picked-up since my last post at 10:15am. I was at the beach at noon to take a look and the waves are running about 3-4 feet from my observation.
Anyone else from the area, if so what are your thoughts?
TH
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:15 PM |
|
|
|
Gulf beginning to brew?
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http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/latest_GOM_vis.jpg
Look due south of the western edge of Lake Pontchartrain maybe 150 miles offshore. If something gets cooking from this 'arc', there's not that much room to develop anything major, but we may be seeing the beginning of development.
Steve
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:19 PM |
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Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
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from the 2:30 report from Tallahassee --
MARINE: NO HIGHLIGHTS. 12Z MODEL RUNS AGREE ON LOW WIND SPEEDS BUT
VARY IN DIRECTION. THE FORECAST WILL INCLUDE LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING
WELL. IN VIEW OF HPC AND NCEP COORDINATED DAY 5 (SUNDAY) POSITION OF
EDOUARD OFF APALACHICOLA...WILL OPT FOR "TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE" FOR LATE SATURDAY.--
hmmmm...
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:23 PM |
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Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
shows the 15z run of nhc with aloop back to the west
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:26 PM |
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Hey k_______g
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
This visible loop verifies what you noted about the SE drift at present. The center is cleraly visible and moving SE.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:27 PM |
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Re: Tony,Tony,Tony
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Steve,
Thanks for your input. I also believe we will betalking aboutthis one all week and also think there is a possibity of 2 Fl landfalls. We know that the tropics are full of surprises, just hope whatever it turns out to be and where it goes, there are no injuries. Have a good day !!!!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:35 PM |
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Re: Tony,Tony,Tony
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No problem. I ain't squat. I'm just a denizen of the tropics like the rest of you. I'll gladly sacrifice a minor injury for a landfall, but that would have to be scrapes, cuts and bruises ONLY.
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:35 PM |
|
Hey Shawn
|
You know my opinion on models.... Unfortunately my wife won't let me have any .... geesh
Steve, Ive been watching the GOM for the past 24 hours, northern edge has a nice curvature to it, but nothing yet to get it kick started... sure looks like it wants to get something going....
If old Eddie cross Fl, enters the GOM, develops into a major hurricane, then I'll start paying more attention to the GFDL... but this year its been a very poor performer... Hey, I certainly don't know where it going, so I end up getting abused by the models just like everyone else... they're all we got.... should be an interesting next week to say the least...
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:47 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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We're having a terrible storm here in the St. Pete area.
Steve could be right. Fl is starting to look like lunch meat between 2 slices of bread. :
Toni
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 06:50 PM |
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Re: Hey Shawn
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The southwest track is really starting to look likely. The question, as always, is how long he takes to start moving. The GFDL has Eddie turning into a Cat 2 or 3 before landfall, by my calculations. If the GFDL is right on target long range (very doubtful, of course) New Orleans may finally get that scary one we've always talked about. An interesting week lies ahead!
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:26 PM |
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Re: Hey Shawn
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I'am not even about to try an say where eddie will end up. But believe a west or southwest track is ok to go with for now. Considering local nws's offices seem to agree. Hopefully we will start to see a clearer picture over the next couple of days.
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:34 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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I have heard that the Tropical Storm Warning has been lowered into North Florida. Anyone else hear this?
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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No Bruce haven't heard that. If they do anyting it wouldn't be until later this afternoon. Think they can go ahead and drop georgia TS warning though. Who did you hear that from Bruce?
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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A Chat Room
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Said they heard it on TV, maybe they meant it would be at 5pm
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 5 forms 130 miles ESE of Daytona
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Hey Bruce, Have't heard any thing but I have been off the computer for a while and unable to listen to TWC. The last I heard was that Ed was starting to move E -SE so it will only make since if he continues in that direction that they will at least have to extend the watch/warning area farther down the coast. Will be back on line soon again. Keep us informed. Toni
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 07:51 PM |
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New GDFL
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The new GFDL has Eddie entering at Palm Coast, going down I-4 and stalling around Tampa. It then has it very slowly moving up the coast as a cat 1.
That is the last thing Florida needs as we are flooded in many places.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:03 PM |
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Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
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palm coast has a toll bridge or at least use to so unless he has change he may not get far!
| Mary K. |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:05 PM |
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Re: New GDFL
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Is the GFDL the outliar in the model systems? I am talking statistical outlyer not out and out falsehood prognosticator. Because the only pressure readings I am getting anywhere are not very low. Is there any more reliable models out there and what are they saying? I can't read them. Not educated enough.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:26 PM |
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Re: pressure drop
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Pressures at the 41010 (120 miles E of C Canaveral) have drop from 29.96 at 11am to 29.88 at 4pm
at 41009 just of Cape Canavera pressure has droped from 29.97 at 11am to 29.90 at 4pm... the biggest or most stustained pressure drop trend with this yet...
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:33 PM |
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Re: New GDFL
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Still looks 'mostly' stationary but perhaps a jog a bit to the ENE is evident in the last couple of frames.
Quasi-tropical day here in the Crescent City. It's been overcast and a little breezy today. Several shower bands have been moving E to W across areas of SE LA and Coastal MS. There is a nice arc just south of the coast that would represent a stregthening eyewall if this was a classified storm. This might be good to know down the line, especially if a low pressure gets on the map tomorrow as I suspect it will. We'll stay on the wet side for a couple of days, but this would probably be a SW LA/TX problem down the line. Of course the building convection may not be a diurnal or timing thing more than energy from the wave to it's S and SW entraining some potency, but it's still worth noting.
Surface winds at the buoys show that spin is evident from some of the NNE/N winds on Upper TX Coast to the E/NE winds in the north central Gulf to some of the SSW winds further south off the TX Coast.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:39 PM |
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Re: Gulf beginning to brew?
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yep we do have the toll bridge still here in Palm Coast (costs me an arm and a leg to get to work everyday!) Sure hope "Eddy" decides on another location to visit and this forecast track does not varify.........so many residents of Flagler county think we are immune to a landfall from the east.... Enjoy the hol's all
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:42 PM |
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Re: New GDFL
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Models in fair agreement with differences in strength. This should prove to be one intresting week!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:52 PM |
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Edouard's movement and what it may mean for future intensity.
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Edouard was moving east as of 2:00 P.M. It looks to me like this could mean more of a central Florida hit than a northern one. This is simply because the loop would occur further offshore. This could also allow for intensification into a hurricane even!
Any thoughts? Off to check Melbourne NWS discussion. 5:00 PM NHC update comming soon as well.
Kevin
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 08:56 PM |
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NWS Melbourne discussion
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They seem fairly uncertain on possible local wind/tornado impacts. One thing appears certain though: plenty of rain.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MIA/AFD/MIAAFDMLB.RECENT.txt
Kevin
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 09:23 PM |
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Hey Shawn,
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You awake over there?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html#GMEX
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
(only good for another hour or so)
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf.shtml
Pressures still falling. 42001 (Mid Gulf) at 29.87 S10; 42041(North Mid Gulf) 29.95 SE @ 13.6k; BURL1 (Buras) 29.91SE 15; 42002 (25.17 x 94.42) 29.94 N 7.8k.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 09:42 PM |
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Re: Hey Shawn,
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Hey steve, awake here in SW LA. Been watching all afternoon. Local Mets are getting real interested here. Whats your take. BarryB
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 02 2002 10:49 PM |
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Barry...
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I don't know. I think a surface low is going to form south of you guys, but the way the flow is, it may not have enough time to get organized and classified as a TD or TS. Should bring a few inches of rain and some tstorms to TX on Wed though. Correction on that one pressure - it was 29.84 not 29.94.
Steve