CFHCAdministrator
()
Tue Sep 03 2002 02:32 PM
Tuesday Edouard Update

This will be updated during the day as more information on Edouard is made available.
5PM Update
Edouard has weakened a bit more, and jogged south a bit. Tropical Storm Watches are again up North of Titusville.

3PM Update
Edouard has begun its move to the west southwest, slowly. Shear is still taking its toll as much of the convection is away from the center. It is weaker than it was earlier in the day.

11AM Update
Edouard has strengthened to 65MPH. However, no more strengthening is expected today (perhaps even weakening) We'll watch in case this doesn't happen. The Tropical Storm watch may be re-extended southward later today.

10:30AM Update
Currently, Eduoard is forecast to meander a bit more and eventually turn toward the Southwest making landfall Thursday somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Jacksonville and exit into the Gulf of Mexico. This could change, so check back frequently, and of course monitor local media and official sources for information.

This morning Edouard has strengthened a bit, but still it remains under heavy shear. If it manages to escape the jet that would cause the shear then more strengthening is possible. All of us along the East Central and North Florida coast need to monitor it. It could be a rain event for us, or more depending on today and tomorrow.

This run of the GFDL is from this morning and shows one of the possible paths.

If you have a question, an observation, or otherwise anything else helpful for others regarding the situation, please use the comment link and let everyone know.

Melbourne Radar - Long Range
Jacksonville Radar - Long Range

Dolly still is a fish spinner. And another system has emerged off Africa that looks very impressive and will be a long tracker I believe.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.

- [john@flhurricane.com] and - [mike@flhurricane.com]

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 03 2002 02:53 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update 11:00


TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002



PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION

PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS



AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR

LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.6 WEST



CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES

OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT FRI SEP 6 2002



LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E



30.0N 79.0W 99 X X X 99 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2

29.8N 80.0W 35 X X X 35 NORFOLK VA X X X 2 2

29.2N 81.0W 14 4 2 2 22 KEY WEST FL X X 2 4 6

MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 5 5 11

MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 FT MYERS FL X 2 6 5 13

MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 VENICE FL X 3 6 5 14

MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 TAMPA FL 1 5 6 4 16

MYGF 266N 787W X 2 2 4 8 CEDAR KEY FL 1 6 6 4 17

MARATHON FL X X 2 4 6 ST MARKS FL X 2 7 6 15

MIAMI FL X 1 3 4 8 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 8 13

W PALM BEACH FL 1 3 4 3 11 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 8 11

FT PIERCE FL 4 5 3 3 15 PENSACOLA FL X X X 7 7

COCOA BEACH FL 8 5 3 2 18 MOBILE AL X X X 5 5

DAYTONA BEACH FL 13 4 3 1 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4

JACKSONVILLE FL 11 6 3 2 22 BURAS LA X X X 3 3

SAVANNAH GA 9 7 3 2 21 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2

CHARLESTON SC 9 6 3 1 19 GULF 29N 85W X X 5 8 13

MYRTLE BEACH SC 3 7 2 2 14 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 7 8

WILMINGTON NC X 4 2 3 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4

MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 1 3 5



COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT

A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED

FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES

B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED

C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU

D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI

E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI

X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT



FORECASTER FRANKLIN



Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 03 2002 03:14 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Edouard is looking pretty ragged now on the visible. I'm surprised it picked up strength. I wonder if it just blowing itself out and will die away. This is an odd one.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 03:59 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Latest visible shows a tiny burst of convection right over the llc. This is a very interesting storm. Also looks like a southwest drift has begun.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 03 2002 04:19 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

this animated sat pic seem sto show a movemnet to the s-sw
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxVisSatellite.html

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 03 2002 04:29 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Troy2... sat pix definitely shows movement to SSW... interesting... also convection looks a little better on the last frame or two... who knows, maybe the GFDL is finally going to get something right this year... It did predict the SSW movement... stay tuned...

Hey Steve, maybe this is the big one for New Orleans.... at least that's what the GFDL is trying to predict for ya....

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 03 2002 04:45 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

I estimate the center of Edouard to be at 30.16 N and 78.96 W... drifting off to the SSW. This could be the beginning of its projected SW movement... System is pretty much exposed on all sides now with little if any really deep convection near its center...(except that area being shear east of the system) ... amazing little system with a great LLC signature... very persistent.... no telling what this thing could have done without all the shear its been fighting...

Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 03 2002 05:36 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update


1:20 PM 9/3/02

You have to admire Ed as he continues his Battle with shear and waits for a chance to really start wrapping up. Tail trailing off to SW ready to begin pumping moisture into him given any chance at all.

Already he has made Hurricane history with the addition of the term "Squashed Spider" to the lexicon. This term will not go away.

And speaking of going away, I think this ones going to keep us hanging for next few days at least. Saying any more than that would be pure speculation...anything goes at this point....and I'd rather hear that from others.

Those new to this site might want to check forum area for some excellent posts.

Later
Hurric

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 03 2002 05:40 PM
Movement WSW?

Looking at the latest vis loop it appears to me that Ed is actually moving more off to the west southwest (WSW). Looks to be more than just a drift too... Initially I detected a SSW motion but the more recent loops I reviewed has convinced me he's going WSW....

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 03 2002 05:51 PM
MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 78.5W


ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL0502


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 03.09.2002 30.3N 78.5W MODERATE

00UTC 04.09.2002 30.2N 78.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.09.2002 29.7N 79.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2002 29.5N 79.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2002 28.9N 79.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2002 28.8N 79.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2002 28.6N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.09.2002 28.7N 78.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2002 29.3N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2002 29.4N 77.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 08.09.2002 31.2N 76.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2002 31.9N 74.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2002 33.3N 71.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT




Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 05:58 PM
Re: MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z

That's the eventual SE and out to sea track, certainly a possibility. I think it's less than 50/50.

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 05:59 PM
Re: MET OFFICE, BRACKNELL, UK 1728Z

000
WTNT35 KNHC 031743
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002

...EDOUARD BEGINS TO MOVE...BUT WEAKENS A BIT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH
TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.0 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA.

EDOUARD HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 MPH.
A CONTINUED MOTION TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THIS MORNING
HAS ENDED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE DECREASING NOW AND ARE NEAR
60 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 79.1 W. MOVEMENT
...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


garyb
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 03 2002 06:03 PM
1:00 PM VORTEX DATA

URNT12 KNHC 031702
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1702Z
B. 30 DEG 01 MIN N
78 DEG 57 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 140 DEG 111 NM
F. 184 DEG 30 KT
G. 142 DEG 079 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 24 C/ 348 M
J. 24 C/ 363 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134/01
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 0705A EDOUARD OB 15
MAX FL WIND 57 KT NW QUAD 1337Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.



Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 03 2002 06:05 PM
Re: Wind shear

System seems to be in th heaviest wind shear of the last few days. It will have to slide south another 40 miles to get out of it from the looks of it. If it doesn't start a more southerly trek, I think the shear will rip this system apart in the next 24-48 hours.

andy1tom
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 03 2002 06:21 PM
Re: 1:00 PM VORTEX DATA

Hope this works, it was copied from a post last year about what the vortex data means. Dissreguard the values as they are not relative to this storm.

A) It was taken at 1515Z (10:15 CDT).
B) Is the center position report
C) Minimum pressure height (Not Available in this report)
D) Maximum ESTIMATED surface wind (40kts)
E) Max surface wind position from storm center.
F) Max Flight level wind direction and speed
G) Max Flight level wind position from storm center
H) Minimum central pressure
I) Max flight level temp/Pressure altitude (in meters) outside the center
J) Max flight level temp/Pressure altitude (in meters) inside the center
K) Dewpoint/Sea surface temp in storm center
L) Eye character (if eye is present)
M) Eye shape and diameter (if present)
N) Confirmation of lat/lon/time fix
O) Fix determination by (encoded)
P) Nav fix accuracy in nautical miles
Q) remarks

Hot dang!!! I have contributed something worthwhile

Andy

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 06:24 PM
Rasvar...

I think it already has been shorn apart. The major convection is practically disassociated with the llc. There are only a couple of rain bands (one onshore btw) with Edouard. We'll have to wait to see if he can re-fire some storms. He's been pulsing a few times per day, so it is possible he may try again this afternoon or evening.

Steve

garyb
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 03 2002 07:03 PM
2:00pm model runs

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.


TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD (AL052002) ON 20020903 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...

020903 1800 020904 0600 020904 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 30.0N 79.1W 29.2N 79.2W 28.3N 79.6W

BAMM 30.0N 79.1W 29.7N 79.8W 29.2N 80.6W

A98E 30.0N 79.1W 29.4N 80.2W 28.7N 80.2W

LBAR 30.0N 79.1W 29.5N 79.5W 29.2N 80.3W

SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS

DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 57KTS



...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...

020905 0600 020905 1800 020906 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMD 27.4N 79.8W 26.5N 79.9W 25.5N 79.7W

BAMM 28.7N 81.4W 28.2N 82.2W 27.5N 83.8W

A98E 27.9N 79.4W 27.2N 78.4W 25.6N 76.6W

LBAR 28.9N 81.2W 28.8N 82.3W 29.1N 84.5W

SHIP 60KTS 65KTS 69KTS

DSHP 60KTS 35KTS 34KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 30.0N LONCUR = 79.1W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 30.4N LONM12 = 78.6W DIRM12 = 111DEG SPDM12 = 1KT

LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 79.1W

WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 35KT

CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M



Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 03 2002 07:04 PM
Re: Rasvar...

The further south as has been the case over labor day holiday the better for storm. Its sitting in northwesrly shear of 20-25 kts. A tad further south say 28-29n shear lets up a bit. Do believe it will reflare this evening as has been the case for last few days now. Future landfall will be somewhere between Cape Canaveral and Daytona Beach. As far as how strong or what it is at that point is all up to how far south he gets.

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 03 2002 07:19 PM
burst time

edouard has lost its convective burst from this morning and will have to throw more if it is to stabilize. sw movement is very slow and not really complicating the shear.. probably going to lessen as the system loses latitude. think the 65mph is a little overzealous, as without convection edouard wont sustain such a strength. has the look of a 50mph tropical storm under shear.
dolly seems to be moving nne today. really going with the flow. recurvature pretty definite, not going to break out and run west convectionless.
three well defined swirls, one near 35w moving slowly w, two near 20w, the stronger one at 18n the weaker at 12n. the 18n swirl is invest 95L, but moving west over cool water.
the close proximity of all of these is going to make the development of the next storm rather confused, but probably have a storm develop out of all this.
nw gulf has a pretty broad sfc low which isnt moving much under that southerly jet.. good divergence aloft. could still get a late developer out of this.
troughiness in the central atlantic not developing as far as i can tell, but avn and a couple of other models suggest a low between bermuda and the bahamas in the next amplification wake by the weekend.
HF 1800z03september

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 07:28 PM
Re: 2:00pm model runs

Looks like the models are clustering around 2 ideas now. 1) SW drift and into the Gulf; 2) SW drift and then SE and out to sea (possible landfall brush on the central peninsula). GFDL is leading idea 1 and UKMET is leading idea 2.

In any event, center now south of 30N as evidenced on the NOAA Visible "still' shot.

Steve

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2002 07:32 PM
Re: burst time

You know, I the other day when the models had this thing going nw then east then sw and then wsw, I thought all the models were out to lunch, I really did. There was this little tiny voice in my head, however, that kept saying "they could be right!" And guess what? For the most part, they were. I was wrong about the models. However, the NHC must have been as perplexed as we were given the fact that they thought it would brush the coastline of FL (it did) then go NW (it did) then N (it did). I do not think, though, that they expected the WSW movement at all. As it stands now, if it can keep moving further south, it will be in a more favorable environment and who knows what will happen? The GFDL was pretty close to the current track as far as I can tell.
I told my husband that I was NOT going to watch this storm anymore (this was on Sunday) because it was just a waste of time, LOL....he said, "You know what? When YOU stop watching it, that's when it will come back to haunt you."

Hmmmmmm. ;-)



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:11 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

just saw twc outlook, its moving more south and it will move into a area of no shear, and strengthen. didnt they say it would be swept away with a trough.few days ago,,,,,,

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:16 PM
MOVEMENT

Looks to me to be moving more to the south now too.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:20 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Hi Everyone,
Well Eduardo is moving almost s-sw over the last 2 hours. If you look at satellite pictures and radar they both show a more southerly direction than a few hours ago. I also see the last 2 hours as it takes a more south turn the thunderstorms to the east are approaching the center a bit more and I think this will continue as long as it moves further south. If I had to guess Edouardo will move inland between West Palm Beach and Daytona sometime tommorow as a moderate to strong T.S.. It then will move westward into the gulf and who knows what happens then. The main problem will be rain over central and southwest Florida. Still something to continue to watch and I do expect Tropical Storm Warnings to be posted at 5pm further south on the east coast.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:38 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Hi, what is happening in the Gulf? Should it be of any concern to us in South TX? Denny

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:53 PM
5PM Update

Edouard continues to weaken as it approaches the coast...tropical storm watch extended...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the tropical storm watch is extended southwardto Titusville Florida. A tropical storm watch is now in effect fromTitusville to Fernandina Beach Florida.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area. While there is the possibility of tropical storm conditions within the watch area...this is not
considered likely...and that is the reason a Tropical Storm Warning is not being issued at this time.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:57 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

whats rich johnson lookin at, just ahowed sat. photo and its moving south and he says, wsw............it will be out of the shear tonight.

Mike
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:58 PM
Re: 5PM Update

It looks like the moisture is starting to wrap back around the center from the NE quadrant.

Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 03 2002 08:59 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

TS Edouard moving W-SW at 6 mph...Winds 50 mph...Pressure 1004mb. NHC forecast it to be a depression at landfall?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:01 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

was wondering about the Gulf myself, the latest sattelite pics. are pretty impressive and things tend to change quickly in the Gulf. Does anyone have an intelligent guess if something may form from this?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:07 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2002



dry air and shear put an end to the intensification of Edouard.
Each subsequent recon pass measured less wind. A NOAA research
aircraft is currently in the cyclone...and has found no flight-level
winds higher than 45 kt. One can argue that the strong winds found
this morning were mesoscale...rather than cyclone scale...but in any
event they are not there any more. There is no longer any deep
convection in the system...although there is still some about 50 N
mi to the east. The current intensity estimate of 45 kt may be
generous.
Edouard has been moving at 240/5...although the last few images
suggest a slower motion. The predominantly shallow system is
expected to continue to the west-southwest. The official forecast
is considerably quicker to the coast than the previous
advisory...and is close to a blend of the GFDL and shallow BAM
guidance. Interestingly...the UKMET turns the system around before
reaching the coast.
Although the SHIPS model still forecasts strengthening...the
official forecast calls for weakening to depression status before
landfall...given that dry air will continue to surround the cyclone
and the shear is expected to remain strong.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/2100z 29.8n 79.2w 45 kts
12hr VT 04/0600z 29.6n 80.1w 35 kts
24hr VT 04/1800z 29.3n 81.2w 30 kts...inland
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.8n 82.4w 25 kts...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 83.5w 30 kts...over water
72hr VT 06/1800z 28.5n 85.0w 35 kts



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:07 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Whats the chance that the NHC could be wrong and the system decieds to build to a cat 1 or cat 2 hurricane before it makes landfall?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:10 PM
Tough call on the Gulf...

I was thinking for the last week plus that TX/SW LA had something headed in their general direction. My last discussion (2 threads back) with Shawn was that I felt like a low pressure would be on the map - classified or not. I think the system runs out of room before it can get well organized and is thus, the 3rd wasted Gulf Landfall of the year. We got some rain this morning and a couple of mild days out of the cloudcover, but not much else here. TX might see some heavy rains before it's all over.

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:10 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

sounds like wishcasting LOL

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:32 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Call it whatever you want, but it was pretty apparent with the way things were shaping up. I don't live in SW LA nor do I live in TX so I don't know where you'd get a wishcast out of that. Still, I think by all appearances, something (whatever it is) ended up there.

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:32 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

could any one give me any information on Hurricane Cristobal

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:37 PM
Vivian Brown on TWC is Horrible !!



Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:40 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

A couple of questions you northern gulf coasters need to ask.....

1. Will the GFDL model come to fruition as to the track? I think the intensity is way off, but then again I thought the projected track was screwy as well - yesterday... I might have been wrong... could a model actually be almost, kinda, sorta accurate.... time will tell..
2. If Edouard does move into the GOM, and actually survives the trip across FL, will it redevelop?? Again the NHC long term forecast hints at that possibility...
3. Finally NHC has the storm in the GOM at 28.5N and 85W in about 72 hours.... could this thing pull an Erin of 1995? Granted, Erin was a little stronger than old Eddie but.... same scenario.... cross FL, enter into GOM move west and redevelop... Erin kinda surprised Pensacola as a pretty strong Cat 1.....

Frank P

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:43 PM
Cristobal

On the left hand side of the main page, click on News Archives...I believe you can find the information about Cristobal there. If not there, than underneath the CONTENT column, hit "Storm Links" and go to the TPC (Tropical Prediction Center")/NHC Official Site. That would be another place where you could find past advisories on Cristobal.

Hope that helps!


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:50 PM
Edouard looks like more of a rain even that anything else.

I believe Edouard should be a major rain event in Florida more than anything else. In fact, tomorrow we should see the circulation cross the state before the convection does! That will be very neat to watch. Central Florida, being on the south side of the storm, needs to watch the rain situation very carefully. Not only will the storm's moisture cause rain, but the flow we are experiencing will bring in even more moisture! Looks like 3-5" of rain are very possible.
Here's my forecast for Central Florida:
Tonight: Partly Cloudy with an isolated evening shower or thunderstorm. Lows in the mid 70's. Light winds
Wednesday: Partly cloudy in the morning, considerable cloudiness in the afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the late afternoon. Winds 15 mph gusting to 25 inland, 30 on the coast. Highs around 90.
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Breezy. Winds 10-15 mph, gusts to 20. Lows in the lower to mid 70's.
Thursday: Cloudy and remaining breezy. Rain and thunderstorms. Winds 15 mph, gusting to 20. Highs in the mid 80's.
Thursday night: Showers and thunderstorms likely in the early evening. Becoming partly cloudy late. Winds 10-15 mph in the evening, becoming calm late. Lows in the lower 70's.

We'll see how my forecast verifies! St. Johns river also looks to have major flooding due to high stages. Something to keep an eye on.

Kevin

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:50 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

I think the chances that the NHC could be wrong are always there...predicting a landfalling hurricane is never an exact science and it takes a lot of ingredients to get a good, strong storm together. For instance, if Eduardo was moving north, he would be destroyed by the shear....but he's not. He's moving S/WSW. Anything is possible. The NHC has many weather experts working there; however, just like any other job it is prone to errors because things don't always pan out the way they expect them to..remember Opal? Andrew? There are lots of examples....Mitch is a good one...he just did the "sit and spin" game for I think about 3 years ...LOL....Just keep watching...if you see that the storm is moving a certain way, the NHC will usually wait 2+ advisories before upgrading (unless it's an absolute, like an eye forms) to make sure it wasn't just a hiccup in the storm.

It's frustrating, I know...but, whenever things like this happen, we learn once again that weather is as unpredictable as unpredictable can get. ;-)

Even worse than women.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 03 2002 09:57 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Hey Colleen, I agree with everything you said except maybe the last sentence... hehe

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 10:09 PM
Re: Vivian Brown on TWC isn't horrible

She's actually very together. But, I think when saying to stay tuned until the end of November when the season ends she was talking for the Channel.. and obviously not Dr. Gray.

Bobbi

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 10:14 PM
Re: Cristobal

You can go to www.click10.com and in the hurricane section it has a program that runs the hurricane tracks. You can run Cristobal's track and then run Edouard. Or you can run Dianne from 1955.. that one is interesting as well.

Bobbi

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 03 2002 10:19 PM
LOL, Frank!

You know what? I KNEW you would respond to that post....men are so.....

CUTE.




Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 10:39 PM
Re: 5PM Update

I guess the storm is dead. the TPC has pretty much said that, Joe B has not had a single update since 8:30 am, and ECTWC which had a more aggressive view toward the storm hitting Central Florida has not bothered to update their last post . All three factors mean I can now turn off the computer , rest my weary eyes and go to bed safely in Stuart Fl tonite. This may turn out to be the weakest hurricane season I can remember as there are too many confusing patterns in the atmosphere this year that prohibit anything other than marginal developement .

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 10:43 PM
Re: 5PM Update

Bastardi has had two posts since this morning on the storm. I am not sure where you are looking.

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 03 2002 11:07 PM
What is going on?

It is so frustrating watching things get so close to popping but never quite getting there. Again, I'm not wishing for a destructive hurricane but as we have read from others there are some of us that would like to see a hurricane sometime this year. We seem to have alot of action around our areas but nothing actually to right home about. Old Eddie is leaving us wonder if he will even be able to hang on and the action in the gulf just doesn't want to spin up. It's kind of weird.

Mitch
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 03 2002 11:17 PM
Re: 5PM Update

From Joe Bastardi...

5 PM. REASONABLE PEOPLE CAN DISAGREE.
My take on Edouard. Ride the UKMET through 72. This drops the system south southwest to just east of Melbourne. It also relaxes the shear which is happening. Why do I say that? Because the thunderstorms that got blown off this morning are no longer getting blown away further east, but staying where they are. However as we talked about below, this pulsing really takes a heck of alot of energy and so the system has to start lifting all that air again. Given the fact its over the gulf stream, what should happen tonight is that the next pulse develops over or near the center and stays much closer. We are still looking at the same ideas from this morning. So far Edouard has behaved according to the outline here. I think that it is still over near the east coast of Florida late Thursday. I wish to point out that this no change from what was said earlier, because this is doing what we said earlier as far as movement. So there is no need for me to react and change things. We will then have to examine things after that to determine where it goes later. Interesting observation: The splitting of the trof off the west coast argues for something to try to dig late into he weekend or early next week toward the Appalachians Chance are are the models instead of forcing a trof split with something like that are just sending over the top of the ridge. IN any case, my take is that the system moves to where we said by late Thursday and then takes its time if it wants to get into the gulf. I simply do not see the kind of low level flow to force it so quickly across Florida. So far use of US generated models has done nothing to show skill.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 11:28 PM
Re: 5PM Update

I'm thinking old Ed will take a ride down I4 and dump tons of water.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 03 2002 11:52 PM
Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

He did a video special both on Eduoard and the Gulf.

Maybe you don't have auto refresh every check set?

Steve

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:31 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Look a cluster of storms just popped north of the center , is'nt this the first time all day that this has happened, most have popped east of center , than got blown to bits, funny joe bast just made a comment about this cluster of storms to pop over the llc

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:34 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Here http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showtalkback.php?Cat=&Board=tb2002&Number=2649&page=0&view=&sb=&o=&fpart=3&vc=1&PHPSESSID=

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:36 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Sorry try this http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

57497479
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:40 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Hey Steve, What are Bastardi's thoughts. My computer has been down and I can't play his video's right now. Man what a time to have technical difficulties!
I'm beginning to wonder if we are even going to see a hurricane this season. Seems like we can't get the right ingredients in the mixer!!!


Pinwheel Toni

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:40 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Yeah, looks like some MINOR convection trying to build northeast of the center... remains to be seen what the shear is going to do to it... and if this is a trend for continued redevelopment... Old Little Eddie is continuing to aggrevate the stew out of us... that's what makes this all so facinating...

Hey Colleen.... CUTE.... you are just being nice...

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:47 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Convection is convection. He is TRYING to hold it together. Whether he will or not, we'll have to see. Shearing should subside as he moves south.
Very nice satellite pic.


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:59 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

Yeah Storm, any convection is better than no convection if this system has any chance to survive.... IF, and thats a BIG IF, it can get some kind of sustained development near its center, then it has a chance to survive until it at least hits the coast... Bigger question, when is it going to start moving again...

Also looking at the latest IR loop still shows some significant shear even south of the system.... maybe it'll relax later tonight or tomorrow...

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 01:06 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

When I said no posts by bastardi since 0830 am at that time I had not seen the 5pm post but I have been unable to find any other posts .

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 04 2002 01:30 AM
On the move again?

Looking at the latest IR loop, it does suggest a slight HINT of a possible SW drift again. Might need a couple more frames to verify, but something to watch...Might just be a wobble and not a trend... Convection still getting blasted, what little there is near the center...

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 02:09 AM
Convection closing in on the center

Looks to me like the convection is pulling back to the center over the last couple of hours. Maybe my eyes are playing tricks on me, but Eddie is looking better to me.

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 02:20 AM
GOM

I want to know where we are suppose to get all this rain from in this area. All the action in the gulf is going to the north and northeast. All I keep hearing is how all this stuff is suppose to come our way. Well, I'm still waiting. What a bunch of crap.

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 02:27 AM
Re: GOM

One more thing, this stuff about Ediie coming into the gulf and re-developing is a bunch of hog wash. He will eventually die out and never get close to doing what the models are saying he will do. This is just my opinion, so don't start with the questions. Something weird is happening that is causing all these systems to just fall apart. I have been following hurricanes for about 10 years and I have never seen it where just about all of the storms that form just fall apart before they can do anything.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 02:33 AM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

He looks better on radar : http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kmlb.shtml

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 04 2002 02:37 AM
Re: GOM

This year does not seem too odd to me. A lot of these storms remind me of last year, or was it the year before, when all of the LLC's just took off in a different direction then the upper level flows from shear and killed themselves.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:10 AM
Re: Convection growing

Just saw WFTV, channel 9's, doppler out of Orlando. SHowing some pretty interesting storm development with a lot of lightning gathering around the east and north of the circulation. Could be interesting if the trend continues through the night.

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:16 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

melb long range picks it up. seems to be a slight bit of wsw movement again. But, that is just with me guessing that what looks like the center, is the center.



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:20 AM
Channel 9

Another thing Channel 9 pointed out was that there is more rain on the west side than they've seen from Eddie.
They seemed to indicate it was a sign that he may possibly be pulling together.
On Fox, the guy talked about the dry air disappearing as the system in gulf started pushing more moisture in.

Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:28 AM
Re: Channel 9

I agree, it does look like the convection is growing slightly. Sitting here in Brevard County, I guess it's all up to Eddie. I don't think he's got the guts to hold out, but that's just an opinion. (Actually, I'm praying for that...)Give him to the fishes!!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:28 AM
Re: Channel 9

He talked again about this sitting there and getting stronger.
"It's something we're closely watching."
He really downplayed the forecast from the NHC.
"The official forecast lowers it to a depression" and that was the only mention of it getting weaker.
He ended the bit with a comparison to Erin, which went over Disney with 45 mph winds, downed lots of trees and lots of rain.

Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:41 AM
Re: Channel 9

Yes guys, A look at Melbourne NWS radar the last three hours shows rain increasing near center and starting to wrap around. Once again just when things are looking like its time for life support Ed seems to be trying to comeback. You gotta admire a system like this that just keeps hanging on. It aint over till it’s over.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml

Hurric

Cycloneye
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 03:47 AM
ED has been a real good fighter

Wow ED has fighted very hard with the shear and it has survived so far all the callenges thay the shear and also the dry air has been there for him.Now let's wait and see in the morning if it still is there or if it has weaken and also what the movement has been overnight.

Robert
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 04 2002 04:05 AM
Dolly

Has anyone read the nhc discussion on dolly tonight. They sey a lot of models are now forcasting west turns some heading to nova scotia one made a sharp west turn. Go check it out

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 04 2002 04:30 AM
dolly edouard 95L etc

some of you sound surprised that edouard is throwing convection again.. when this off and on pattern has been going on for quite a while. here's the scoop.. the worst of the dry air entrainment and shear is passed, from here on the synoptic environment around edouard gets better. which means maybe from crappy to marginal. so, watch the intensity bob up and down while edouard does whatever it intends to.. maybe the sw movement most models like, maybe just more quasi-stationary annoying jerks. system is right over the gulf stream, so not thinking upwelling will be a huge factor. highest hit probabilities volusia and brevard counties.. which is really a lot of coastline when you think about it.
robert, youre still thinking about dolly. i am too. thought the system would just keep going west and lose the top.. but there was enough depth to get it moving northward. now it's opening up over time, the center is jumping around and what. the upper air trough ahead is quite complex, and dolly isnt as nicely defined as models are making it.. so with the poor initialization, dont expect them to get much right. might open up or get sucked into a deep layer storm, as some globals are hinting. im not sure if this teleconnection is real, but in the mid pacific typhoon ele is turning northwestward at fairly high latitude.. makes me wonder if it might be hinting on some sneak attack dolly has planned.
95L. it took the northerly path from the cape verde islands, now around 19/32. convection is refiring in spite of the fact ssts are around 25C underneath. the upper trough in dolly's wake will give way to ridging in its path, and ssts steadily pick up ahead.. so i expect this system to linger and develop.
two other areas of great uncertainty. disturbed weather persists in the gulf, with the upper ridge in place. near the coast the quick developer convection candidates are getting sheared, but between the yucatan and lousiana convection is just bubbling and not getting shredded. still bears watching.
southwest/south of 95L is another small circulation with convection firing around and nearby, and a big burst just lately right behind. earlier today i could see it on visibles, but nothing on the IR tonight and shortwave IR doesnt go that far out.. so i'm stuck wondering what is happening at the surface down there. highly questionable due to uncertainty and proximity to disturbance 95L.
think that covers all the bases. peace everybody.
HF 0426z04september

troy2
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 06:25 AM
Re: Not only did he have 3 updates on his column...

lookin at the current WV image, it appears that some guld moisture may be filling into the dry air. On the loop when some ofthe moisture starts to fill in form the gulf though stil a ways away from Ed, the convections with him starts back up.

Also recent long range loop outof Jax (1:10 through 2:00) shows a bit just a bit of west in his staionaryness

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 04 2002 09:29 AM
EARLY MORNING UPDATE

Looks like convection is starting to increase on the southern and western sides. System also looks more symetrical this morning. Bands are just offshore now. He is definitely moving now towards the coast. The gulf stream is just ahead, will have to keep an eye out all day today.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 11:24 AM
Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE

Eddie certainly looks more organized this morning than he did last night. It doesn't look like he'll have too much time to strengthen, but I don't see him weakening to a TD before landfall. The path over Central Florida seems like the only one now. With the convection wrapping around again, the coast will start getting rain soon.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Sep 04 2002 11:50 AM
Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE

It was raining and a bit windy this morning when I left the coast. The ocean is quite rough too. It'll be interesting to take the trek back to the coast from Orlando this evening.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 04 2002 11:59 AM
Lotsa interesting 'things'...

If there is one thing that can be said about this season, it is that there have been plenty of things to watch throughout. This morning is no exception. Convection now firing up again in the Gulf except now it's under an upper high. Don't know what this means for intensification. AVN is most ominous with a developing storm (possibly cannibalizing Edouard?) more or less stationary off the TX Coast. AVN gives it 3 concentric rings at one point which I'm assuming is its representation of a strong TS or Cat-1 type of system. All along I expected some type of TX landfall today or tomorrow and stuck with an "L" being on the map. Well the "L" is finally there this morning. It's kind of hard to tell where it actually is because there is low pressure off the central TX Coast extending up to south of the Morgan City area. Looks like some of the associated moisture will be coming in in SW and SC LA today - possible heavy amounts in isolated spots.

Edouard is still nudging toward the W or WSW, but appears to be almost stationary. Even shortwave doesn't tell the story of where the eye is, so I'll be looking forward to the first visible loop sometime after 10:30 this morning. I don't have the slightest clue what Edouard is going to do. The same ideas that have been floating around the web for the last 4 days remain. Will it cross FL and head into the Gulf? GFDL and other models still insisting. Will it meander south and stall off the Central FL coast or perhaps somewhat inland north of Miami? Will it take off in one of the northerly directions in a couple of days? Who knows? I sure don't.

Steve

ShawnS
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:06 PM
Re: Lotsa interesting 'things'...

Steve, I have to admit, the extreme nothwest gulf looks pretty scary right now. It looks like it is trying to perform a quick wrap up just right off the coast. I still don't think it will happen BUT it is certainly possible, I GUESS?!?!

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:07 PM
Hmmm...

The lastest recon is reporting max sustained winds of 43knts (50 mph). Yet another advisory comes out saying 40mph. NHC trying to save face?

Mary K.
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:27 PM
Re: EARLY MORNING UPDATE

I am not surprised that the official forecast would try to down play the strength of the winds. This storm has been playing with everyone's imagination. The conditions are so inconsistent that by the time an official consensus has been made, the storm has done something different. They do not want an evacuation on their hands if the thing keeps fluctuating from convection to no convection. We have sunny skies, mild summer morning temperatures and it does not seem like a storm is any where near by. This is in Lakeland just about as central to central Florida as one can get.

squirralee
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 04 2002 12:57 PM
Re: Tuesday Edouard Update

Okay am I crazy or is the GFDL putting something tropical on Brevards doorstep after Ed passes over the state?

http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090406-edouard05l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


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