CFHC
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| Thu Sep 05 2002 10:27 PM |
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Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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Edouard was the storm that tried to get going, but just never got it together. Landfall was mostly a non event except for some rain in relatively spotty areas. It was the storm that would have been much more a problem without the saving grace of the windshear that kept it in check. Ed wanted to strengthen, and do so rapidly, but could not.
Ed has crossedl over Florida, about has exited into the gulf, shear still existing. I doubt Ed has much "life" left in it.
Tropical Depression #6 has formed, and probably will become Fay. But nothing more than a tropical storm.
Folks along Texas are watching it with interest. As a warning has been issued for the area.
We are still watching all of them.
Along with areas in the Eastern Atlantic.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 10:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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dont count ed dead yet east side starting to look good if it can rap around the next few hours there could be a fight in the gulf
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 10:47 PM |
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Out near Africa
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http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200209051800AI3_g.jpg
lets see if it holds together. More models grabbing a hold of this one than the last few.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 10:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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press by ed just went from 2988 to 2984 in a hour
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 11:10 PM |
African wave will be a player next week
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http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Senegal
Pressures are low at Senegal as the strong wave moves out of africa and will do so by tommorow morning.But let's wait and see if the wave has ideal conditions in the atlantic to travel all the way west but some models are picking this wave and moving it west.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 11:15 PM |
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RADAR WEBSITE
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Hi All,
I didn't want this to get missed/lost at the end of the last subject, so I listed it here again. Sorry, for those who already saw this.
I just wanted to let everyone know about a great radar website that I use. You can set up all your own preferences and have the radar center and literally zoom in and out over your own house or any other exact location you would like. It is very accurate, up to the minute, and even loops. You can also add as many locations as you want. It is great to zoom in on a storm. Like yesterday, while most were using the Melbourne radar, I set mine up to have Ormond Beach as the center and zoom point as Edouard was making landfall. Check it out and let me know what you think. Hope you like it.
www.my-cast.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 05 2002 11:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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Boys go to tampa close radar loop let me no what you see i see ed starting to rap up what do you see
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 12:08 AM |
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Center!?!?!
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IMO, I think the center may be trying to re-form under the deep convection that is to the east of where the NHC is saying the center is at. We know that this is a broad circulation and I know this can happen with developing systems. Does anyone have an opinion on this?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 12:38 AM |
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everything under the sun (moon too)
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yeah shawn. lower pressures are down sw of the main convection. system is still oblong and broad, and the upper high is east of the center. in the 8pm twd the boys at nhc mention that the upper high may retrograde over on top of whatever has organized into fay within a couple of days. so basically, if the system keeps meandering offshore, it should eventually stack.. even if the dominant center doesnt start throwing convection and pump the ridge overhead.
edouard persists, sfc pressures around 1010mb by buoy, but winds are weak and radar presentation is poor.
95L.. gustav? could be, if the shear lets up as foretold. if dolly redevelops north then things complicate.
anybody notice how the global 12z runs take that little edouard shadow around the bahamas from the 00z runs and crank it up? not very often you get all three major models all deepening a system that isnt there. pattern wants to pop something there too.. maybe in the diffluence downstream of that mean jet over edouard. all of them have something there by 36hr.. watching.
the weak low south of 95L is weaker yet. mostly nonconvective, ready to forget it.
new pulse off africa has one hell of a well defined rotation. maybe another instant storm. again there is model agreement on this.
alot could be going on this weekend.
HF 0035z06september
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 01:10 AM |
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Another hurry up and wait...
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TD6 not all that impressive on IR compared to the deep convection that was generated this afternoon, radar not impressive either... However, data buoys all along the GOM continue to fall tonight and winds on the increase.... Upper low to west hindering any rapid development.... Could be a major rain maker if it just drifts along the coast... Old Eddie is about as dead as it can get...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 01:39 AM |
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Hey Frank
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Looks like its gonna be Faye at 10 pm. At least that whats being said on some other sites. Latest models initialized at TS6. There is also a vortex message out but I can't seem to find it yet.
Hey how about your Golden Eagles, good game last week. I was up in Oxford for the REBs opener.
Houstontracker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 01:39 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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all everyone talked about is when will there be a storm now there 2 where is everyone at
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:05 AM |
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Re: Hey Frank
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Houstontracker... where ya been son...
I wouldn't be surprised for the NHC to upgrade TD6 to TS, especially since its so close to coast... hard for me to find a well defined center though based on radar... probably does have some TS force winds in convection to east of center...
Eagles were flying last week... much bigger test this week... Overall CUSA didn't do well though... Rebs with Eli should be fun to watch... Gotta love em with a Manning in the backfield...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:32 AM |
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Re: Hey Frank
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg
Ths isn't Fay @ 9:19pm CDT? That's all I've got to say.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:38 AM |
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Re: Hey Frank
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I've been lurking around here some, but not much action for us over here in Texas up until now.
Hard to say where the center is, probably around 28/93.5 or so. I guess the reported vortex message was a false alarm. I just took a look at the IR loop and it looks about as good as anything has this year, more convection building east of where the center probably is. Give it another 24 hours and I think it will look a lot better.
Corpus AFD now says it is TS Fay by the way.
Went up and sat in the new end zone that Eli built for us "haha" He needs to have a better game this week, that Memphis team always scares me. They always seem to get up for the OM game. Can't be losing to no Conf USA team this early in the year.
Houstontracker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:41 AM |
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Re: Hey Frank
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Hey Tracker, last recon I found showed some flight level winds > 40k/mph (can't remember which). Go the net-waves link and click on TD #6 and scroll down to the recon plots. By all indiciations, feedback is now occuring. If tonight's convective burst continues through the nighttime hours, nothing but the position of the ULL over E TX is going to hinder this one. Of course dynostorm could always rear their ugly heads!
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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fay is named by nhc
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:58 AM |
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Re: Hey Frank
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Yes Steve, I see what you mean. I think Fay is in the process of defining her identity tonight. Tommorow should make for an interesting day. The forecast track does not bode well for us here in Houston I could use some rain, but another slow moving system could be devastating here. Last year I had my in-laws for a month due to the flooding and their home is still not completely back to normal. It would not take too much rain for them to flood again.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:07 AM |
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Hey Shawn
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You've finally have a storm on you backdoor steps.... interesting to see what effect it will have in your area...
Hate to see a storm just sitting out in the warm GOM... a ton of energy needs to be vented out there too.. fortunately its rather close to land so maybe it wil just be a big rain maker... but that does not bode well for the people of TX and SW LA...
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression Six forms in Northwest Gulf
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IF THE CYCLONE IS NOT A TROPICAL
STORM NOW...IT PROBABLY WILL BE SOON...SO MIGHT AS WELL NAME IT NOW
funny how that rationale is selectively used!
Is the convection over FL outer bands from Fay??
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:14 AM |
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Hey Jason Kelly
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Any first obserations or comments on Kay... is this definitely a Texas storm? Any thought as to how strong it will get...
thanks
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:54 AM |
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Re: Hey Jason Kelly
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I think so...but it will bear monitoring...would be a lot easier to tell if there was a real center...which leads to...
I think the NHC is crazy for upgrading TD6 to Fay...I'm not even convinced it's a TD, but it certainly ISN'T a TS...
Name one other TS that recon was flying into and COULDN'T close off a circulation.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 04:12 AM |
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Hey wxman007
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Hi I post here too and I know that you are not pleased with the upgrade to FAY.But it is organizing now and it will be strongerthan now at this time tommorow but the real threat from this will be the rain because of the very slow movement.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 04:49 AM |
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Re: Hey wxman007
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I knew you posted here...good to see you...
I guess I think it really doesn't do anyone any good...it gets everyone whipped up into a frenzy (certain TV guys which shall remain nameless)...It may very well reach TS strength tomorrow...it wouldn't surprise me at all if it did...it's just aggravating to me...it's not gonna reach land tonight...why not wait until it reaches that status??
I'm probably too worked up about it. I need sleep.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 04:50 AM |
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Hmm....
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Musta lost my reply to Frank P. Here's the condensed version Frank. I don't think Fay moves NW tomorrow. I think she sits. 00 model runs may provide some clues, but I don't have any. I do think, however, if the storm takes the Tropical Model tracks issued through the gov't, then there will likely be places in coastal TX picking up over 15 inches of rain. I would also expect a pretty wide swath of 5-10". By Sunday, Fay isn't even to San Antonio yet and will in fact, still be feeding on Gulf moisture. If I was in the Bayou City, I'd be a little worried.
Fay may end up a TX storm, but I don't think it's as quick as the NHC is going with it. I'm almost ready to go to sleep so I can wake up and look at the morning IR and see what happens. I suspect a stronger system tomorrow.
Steve
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 05:26 AM |
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e,f.. where's g?
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still looking sloppy.. shear has the convection on the NE edge of the (broad) center. i hear the complaints about nhc overkill.. yes, they arent consistent.. but this one is threatening and is a broad closed low with gale force winds.. might as well give it the name. remember allison didnt actually close until it was right offshore.. gale force winds usually mean the system is practically a t.s. even if the structure is still awakward. pressures have been falling, down from over 1010mb about 24hrs ago, to the current 1006. once the center tightens and all it will then become a question of how much time does the system get over water. if we awake to a vertically stacked system tomorrow down near 1000mb, could be a hurricane late in the day. things can intensify pretty fast over the gulf in september. an eastward relocation would put the center more under the ridging and start the bastardi snowball rolling. have to watch for center relocations.. luckily sfc pressures still lowest SW of the convection.
edouard is holding for now at a 20kt depression, moving SW. believe it or not shear will relax if it continues in this direction, just in time for fay to start pounding away.
the bermuda triangle area has lots of ominous slow turning in the low level cloud field, while convection is bursting in places. 00z model runs will be really spooky if they still want to develop something here like the last 00z and 12z sets.
invest 95L had slightly improved in appearance during the day, throwing an odd band of convection with regularity. good convergence ahead and lighter shear should give it better chances at organization. probably never threaten anywhere if it does develop.
low level turning i keep spotting ssw of 95L is still there, odd thunderstorm from time to time. almost no shear.. have to watch in case it gets convective.
dolly remains looking frontal, central atlantic trough lifting with them.
emerging wave should be tagged and invest tomorrow or saturday. should it develop immediately, probably be a recurver. longer it waits, more threatening its profile.
gustav is around the corner, i have a feeling.. probably a hanna somehwere in this active stretch as well.
HF 0522z06september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:20 AM |
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00Z runs...
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Seems like all the 0906 00z runs want to bring Fay into TX anywhere from Houston to Brownsville. Some of them give her a south of West track after landfall without much stalling evident (though one models brings energy back to the BoC after landfall. I'm going to stick with stationary until new guidance comes out later today before changing my call. It's hard to go against all the models when they're doing more or less the same thing.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 10:52 AM |
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Re: RADAR WEBSITE
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I've messed around with my-cast a bit this morning.
I like it!!
Thanks for the tip.
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 10:56 AM |
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Re: RADAR WEBSITE
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ooops...wasn't logged in.
Do you know if the set-up map at my-cast is just temporarily down?
I used the zipcode choice.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 12:57 PM |
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Rainband moving through...
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I'm at the tail end of a rainband over the last 15 minutes that dumped about a half inch on the area. Models @ 6z move the storm toward Corpus over the weekend. Look out for some torrential rain in EC TX.
Steve