CFHC
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:25 PM |
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Tropical Storm FAY
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11am (eastern) Update :
Tropical Storm Fay is Strengthening winds are now up to 60mph and its moving west at 2mph. Texas coast needs to keep a very close eye on this storm. Fay could become a Hurricane very soon.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM PORT OCONNOR
TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS.
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Original Post:
Tropical Storm Fay continues to meander I the Northwest Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Mata Gorda, Texas to Interacoastal City, Louisiana.
More to come…..
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [john@flhurricane.com]
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:26 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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Wake Up guys. this thing is starting to wrap. pressures are dropping
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 02:52 PM |
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FAY
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Fay has that home grown look this morning, but she is getting better organized with impressive pressure falls this morning approaching 1000mb. Looks like hurricane watches are coming up along the Texas coast.
Winds up to 55mph can she become a hurricane ?
Houstontracker
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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winds at 60mph
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 03:49 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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too much dry air in her,,she is barely a TS, defidently not a hurricane.
| HanKFranK |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 05:01 PM |
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fay on down
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radar pres. has improved this morning. dominant center is at the northeast end of the broad low level core, tightening up. the open-looking sw quadrant is a result of land proximity, with the storm drawing inflow from semiarid texas... and probably more so the shear from the upper low over texas. have to wonder how much effect edouard has had on fay's movement, as it has been slowing the easterly flow. edouard looks to be opening up, so agree with the declassification.
here's my philosophy on fay: pressure keeps falling and center comes to resemble a more classic cdo as the system nears hurricane strength. probably become a minimal hurricane and move onshore near port lavaca or victoria, but skim the coast and bend sw slowly. lots of rain for the kiddies in central texas.
models still calling for a low to form somewhere between the bahamas and bermuda, develop into a tropical cyclone. several show it pumping the ridge and bending towards the west. possiblity it will hit the east coast early or middle next week. exact development location, track, intensity up in the air.. waiting to see where it tries to pop. some want to develop a binary system, or one with subtropical features.
95L is turning N into the central atlantic trough as it pulls away. presentation the same.. well defined low level swirl with transient convection. still has a decent chance of becoming a classified system.
south of 95L the low level swirl is reorganized into a broad turning axis.. low shear but scant convection. centered around 17/47.. level of definition essentially the same as in previous days. tracking wnw, downstream environment looks decent. another thing to watch.
the much hyped wave/low is offshore nearing 20w, looking quite well defined. taking a southerly track as well, it seems. should be an invest tomorrow.
G and H storms should come out of all this mess... likely. possibility of only one, or maybe 3.. but unlikely none.
HF 1657z06september
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 06:19 PM |
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Re: fay on down
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Fay has a 1000mb low pressure to her and is located Sw of the area that frank just posted, center he sees is the mid level low. Great observations he has on the systems out there. I like to see his posts. Alot of good info.
Anyways, fay still very elongated and moving eraticly with a slow w movement to come onshore about 50 miles Sw of galvestine island as a moderate TS early saturday. Plenty of moisture and moderate winds in squalls and she moves onshore.Expect brief tornados in the squal lines.Rainfall up to 6-8 inches near the center of landfall and the track of Fay. Also 2 other systems to note, the first one briefly has a low center to it off the african coast, it could be a TD by later in the weekend moving just n of due west. The other and more importantly my earlier call on the first Huricane of the season should be forming ENE of the Bahamas near 27N and 71W. Most models form this into a depression by Sunday morning, infact recon by Sunday might find it a Tropical storm which then should be a hurricane by Monday. I expect winds to increase as high as 100-110 mph closing in on a Cat 3 by Tues morning. Models at first showed a west track into fl and the gulf, then turned around to a N then w turn to threaten the carolinas. Hard to figure out this one where the center is not exactly pinpointed yet. A huge ridge as forcasted wil come down early next week and push the hurricane off to the west and should make the eastern US under hurricane watches. The forcast is very hard here and is up in the air. As we can see it 2 things can happen. 1 He forms around the above cor and moves slightly nw into early next week to near 29-30N and 74 W and becomes a hurricane later on Monday. The ridge builds in stronger and pushes him W to the S carolina coast. The Ridge can also build in alittle quicker and stronger and push the hurricane more W and just S of there threatening the same area as Eduardo. 2 things can happen and also exactly where the center forms and how strong and fast the ridge to his NW builds in. Update more on Sat or Sunday on this, scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter,,,,,,, my person site is back on. Alot of good discussion pages and model input.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM |
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Nice little rain band coming through...
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.klix.shtml
| troy2 |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 06:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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interesting note on the current gfdl run. scott mentioned a storm maybe running up to the NC coast . well on that run there is also a low shown that forms in the gulf just off the sw coast of fl,heads up and nne acroos the state.
check it out, at least for time killing sake
http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2002090612-fay06l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 06:34 PM |
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Wait a minute! It's EDOUARD!
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Looks like this increase in moisture and insanely heavy rain going on downtown right now is some of the energy from Edouard. It's not apparent on the sats, but if you look at the radars, you can see it.
Steve
| troy2 |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 06:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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steve
I think that is radar link shows part of ed getting caught up in the circulation of Fay .
lot of rain there!
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:10 PM |
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Re: fay on down
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Is the African wave you see moving "" N of due West" the same one HankFrank sees moving south???
cc
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:27 PM |
Re: GFDL== Boguscane City
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Need we say more?
IHS,
Bill
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:31 PM |
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Re:Fay
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Looks like from plotting the recon and bouy reports that the best guess for a center is near the NHC's 1pm position, maybe a little south of there. Looks like they are closing in on a definite center so maybe we will have a vortex message this afternoon. One of the recon reports had a pressure of 999mb so I guess we have our first storm below 1000mb.
To me Fay has that look you get when a storm forms so close to the coast here in Texas. (dry air flowing in from the west) If It hangs around long enough maybe it will be able to completely wrap around.
Here in Spring on the north side of Houston it's a little windy and very cloudy. Kind of pleasant outside, i'm gonna go cut my grass before the rain gets here.
Hey Steve, looks like New Orleans is getting it pretty good right now.
Houstontracker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:44 PM |
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Hey troy check out the 120 hour mrf
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The mrf also shows a storm in the gulf moving towards west coast of Florida in the 120 to 130 hour range.
| Steve |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 07:47 PM |
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Re:Fay
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yeah, we got hammered downtown. I'd guess we picked up 2-2.5" in an hour or so. Fox 8 has a day total of 3.21" as of now, so we definitely got some action. Funny note about Edouard on their weather site:
"The remains of TD Edouard will move over Southeast Louisiana late this afternoon and tonight producing locally heavy downpours. Up to 2 inches of rain possible through this evening. "
That's what I said
Anyway, there was some street flooding on Gravier St. (CBD) about 4". I went out and watched it and smoked a cig, but now it's time to head on out to the gym!
Houston, what are they reporting over there on Fay's impact? I can easily see some localized 20"+ along the coast coming from the storm and the feed after it moves on in. This could get fairly hairy for the Central TX Coast.
Steve
Steve
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 08:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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Finally see a real center with this thing--near 27.2N, 95.2W, by vis imagery. The center is terribly exposed,of course; if the center doesn't reform, Fay could be just another movie.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 08:44 PM |
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Re: JJ's post
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Well, mebbe, mebbe not. There is an upper low there, Fay is all messed up, maybe vertical stacking is occurring. doesn't look very healthy..another storm in September that look like June or late October. It's an odd season.
IHS,
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 08:46 PM |
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PS- Eduoard remnants
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Are really flaring in the Fay outflow--there's no circulation but a nice looking blob..now, what if Fay moved away and left the blob there?...hmmm, models show a storm approaching Fl west coast in 120-144 hrs, hmmmm..NAHHHH!
IHS,
Bill
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 06 2002 09:42 PM |
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Will Fay reach cane status?
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For it to happen 2 things have to happen and those are if it stalls for more than 2 days and if the upper low to it's west moves away.If those 2 things happen then we will see the first cane of the season but it will be a close call.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Sep 06 2002 10:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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here in pensacola wind is been about 30mph real windy all after noon you would think a storm was coming could ed gost still be in the game red ball seems to be taking away from fay this crazy what do you guys think
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Sep 07 2002 02:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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I'm trying to figure out whats going on with Fay. Steve Lyons says shes moving toward the coast, I don't know I guess his opinion is as good as any at this point. Maybe part of it is, but if you look at the shortwave IR
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
you can pick out a circulation centered on about 28/95 or so. It will be interesting to see if he convection reforms tonight around this. Pressures still seem to be lowering so I'm not quite ready to say it's over yet. Recon will be there soon so maybe that will answer a few questions.
Frank P and Steve what do ya think ?
Houstontracker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 02:55 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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is there a chance fay dont move then moves east away from the uper low
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 03:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm FAY
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Hey Houstontracker, get ready to grow some web feet over there.......
Not had much of a chance to really look at things today.. Busy as heck remodeling my house.. Kind of in a vuneralble condition so I was a busy bee... Will say this, the MS coast got pounded with some torrential rains late this afternoon... and some pretty good gusts.. Not sure if it was the remaints of old Eddie or a stray feederband from Fay... closest thing to a tropical system around here since Georges...
Convection not all that impressive right now with Fay, only on the northern half, still stationary... heard talk about stacking problems today... sounds like what we experienced with several storms from last year... everything continues to indicate that this should be a significant rain make for you guys over there... good luck and stay dry...
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Sep 07 2002 03:37 AM |
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Tracker...
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Fay's history is to spawn it's convection with a minor burst after midnight with the real pulse up coming between 5-7am. Rainfall amounts are really starting to pop just off the coast. There is a 'worm' of 12-15" moving closer to the coast between Victoria and Galveston if I've got my TX coastal cities right.
Due to relentless shear, most of the convection tonight is well north of the circulation. This doesn't really bode well for the UT Coast if Fay eventually decides on a WNW-NW track. It's worse if she stalls longer than expected. NHC has delayed landfall by 12 hours since yesterday. I never thought Fay would move in overnight tonight to begin with, but they have to go with what the consensus of the modes and their forecasters come up with.
In any event, it looks like the initial threat is from just SE of Houston southward. I'm sure overall there will be plenty of 5-10" amounts. But there will be more than just an isolated 15-25" when it's all said and done.
On the IR loop you provided, it almost looks like the center is between 96 and 97, but that could easily be a trick of the IR.
Anyway, sounds like an exciting time in Texas. Wish I was there. It's cloudy and breezy here tonight. I miight go grab some tequila and sit on the front porch enjoying my 2002 tropical weather.
Steve
| HanKFranK |
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| Sat Sep 07 2002 07:48 AM |
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07z look
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everything ive been watching is verifying ok. fay still under shear, slowly working towards the coast. now very doubtful about the storm becoming a hurricane, as the upper air features across the atlantic dont seem to be changing much. so my worst idea earlier will probably be that the storm would become a weak hurricane. thus, as edouard was endlessly pelted by shear, fay is getting similar treatment. main convective burst is onshore in brazoria and matagorda counties. training of precip is reminiscent of allison, but this time not over houston.. so destructive potential is much lower. thinking an extreme but not terribly widespread flooding event a la allison will be the story of fay.
other features progressing more or less as imagined. forecast cyclogenesis in the southern bahamas.. am thinking further east, maybe north of hispaniola or PR. probably initially move NE or N, hook around to west by early next week and close in on the carolinas. think the amplification next week is overdone, so probably just slow down and behave erratically. nhc already mentioning it could be subtropical, so sort of expecting them to classify it as such.. but probably in the end be a fully tropical system.
95L.. convection is going. has a fairly circular burst signature, slowed down significantly and now following the disintegrating central altanic trough. probably move generally north with westward meanderings next few days... expect this to be a depression tomorrow.
system to the south is maintaining structure and slightly more convective.. though still very scant. moving westward as it has dissociated from the invest to the north. 17/51 coordinates.. shear is light. ssts picking up ahead and speed/convergent environment maybe improving.. though in spite of all this still a slim chance feature.
various models are playing with gulf and near cuba ideas.. but pretty vague and inconsistent. waiting for some signs to appear before i get interested in the slightest.
thinking invest on the new wave/low around 20w. models taking it wnw with little change indicated.. puzzled by what to think as there is so far no analysis and no invest closeup shots of structure are available. the 6hr meteosat shots are woefully inadequate and leave the easternmost part of the basin a place of uncertainty to the eye.
anyhow, is it just me or does the goes 8 not give a view of the basin from midnight to dawn? always wondered.. its a geostationary satelite.. why no pics in the wee hours?
there, done, gnight. got to drive a good distance tomorrow.
HF 0745z07september
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 01:00 PM |
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3 systems with TC formation in the comming days
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1-The system near the Bahamas that all models agree to develop a susface low and develop a significant TC that will threaten the east coast.
2-95L may be TD#7 later today as it has organized overnight and has SAB T number 2.0 but will be a fish.
3-Strong wave that came out of africa 2 days ago today it is trying to get better organized but to early to say if this system will be a threat to the lesser antilles in the comming days.
So those are the systems that may develop in the comming days as the peak of the season is at the 10th.
What do all think of those systems developng into TC at the same time?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 01:11 PM |
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six hour later comments
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fay jumped inland overnight. now on its way down, but slowly as its broad center is piggybacking the coastline. moving into the texas hill country to rain itself out. remember seeing the convective hook inland last night and saying 'naah' but bad call on my part.. exactly what it was doing.
sw atlantic low developing looks ominous this morning. should be a ragged low on satelite by this evening, possibly starting as a deep layer system.
95L probably should have been upgraded this morning at 5am. any higher dvorak numbers would indicate a tropical storm.
system to the south decided to take a break, convection weakened again. now near 17/53.
20w wave plugging along.
HF 1307z07september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 01:38 PM |
Tropical thoughts
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Fay has jumped inland and will probably produce 20 inches of rain in some locations BUT not over Houston...training bands haven't been all that numerous there as some have said here. Somebody will get waterlogged bigtime...but it doesn't look like Houston.
Wave SE of Bermuda should be a depression late this morning or more likely later this afternoon. Convection look good and signature is decent. Kind of small so any increase in shear would make this storm very characteristic of this 2002 season: short-lived and weak.
The African is definitely going to be something in the coming days. Yesterday all of the convection was west of the wave axis but today convection is now consolidated into a tight ball. Conditions ahead are pretty good, too. Main obstacle for this system will be upper-level trough that sheared and destroyed Dolly. This one should be a pretty slow developer so should miss any threating upper-level features. *IF* this one tries to go all the way (10-15 days out) the stage looks cleared for it. I've been looking at what the tracking map looks like and it seems like we need a long track system to make things complete. It's still a few days from peak folks...but the seasons have been late the past few years it seems like.
Convection blowing up quite nicely east of the Bahamas this morning, I agree with HF that a low could try to form here later today. This is a watch and see thing, but with all of the tricks Edoaurd played with us we have to watch carefully.
BTW...Tropical Depression 7 (Floyd) formed three years ago today.
Should be at least an INVEST and maybe even T-numbers on African wave. Be surprised at no INVEST for it. Definitely getting better organized, definitely something to watch.
Kevin
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 01:39 PM |
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Last post was from me. n/t
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| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 02:08 PM |
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TD#7 has formed in central atlantic
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home
Noname for 95L means TD but will be a fish system only Bermuda will have to deal with it.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 02:51 PM |
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Shear Monster Struck Again
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During the past week we've had two systems in all right should have developed into at least minimal hurricanes, especially Edouard....
All season long the tropics have had these well defined, quite strong upper level lows... they have be abundant all season, and in all areas... and has been the quite the factor on dampening the season to date...
Weather pundits talk about the effect of El Nino... is this creating all the strong ULLs? Is there a direct corrolation?
Everytime you check out a WV Loop there is always multiple ULLs dancing all over the screen... seems very unusual to me... weather along the MS coast this am is pretty dreary... stong southerly winds and thunderstorms.. very tropical to say the least..
Wonder when we'll get that first real storm... season to date has been practically non-existant...
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Sep 07 2002 04:05 PM |
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Interesting Bastardi quote this morning..
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"Another strange thought with this. Maybe that band over the gulf does not follow Fay, but is its one entity. Amazingly the 48 hour eta has low pressure over the west central gulf, right where the ghost of Edouard would have been. The moral of the story is that some tough forecasts lay ahead for Texas and Louisiana, and the issue of where that moisture goes in relation to the trof that comes by to its north next week will also have to be resolved."
Meanwhile here in Spring, TX (north suburb of Houston) a very tropical day, frequent bands of heavy showers moving through with breaks of sun in between. The more sun we get though will likely mean more rain later as the atmosphere has a better chance to warm up. Lots of moisture downstream,so whether something else tries to spin up or it all just gets pulled over us around Fay's circulation it looks like a wet couple of days for SE Texas. Also looks like a new Tornado watch is coming up for our area.
Houstontracker
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 04:21 PM |
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NHC reasoning TOTALLY beyond me...
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Fay is now a TD and weakening, let HPC deal with it, it's over with for you guys.
TD 7 is TD7...buoy data supports this low being upgraded.
Bahamian system must be watched as it could really get going when it does start to develop. It is showing signs of doing this now.
But, is this too much to mention the AFRICAN WAVE which is DEFINITELY SLOWLY ORGANIZING???? Of course not! Their reasoning right now purely boggles me...this wave clearly has a circular structure and if the convection keeps consolidating like it is we will have a low here within 24 hours! I can guarantee it! It may be well out for now but NHC needs to do their job fully and correctly and mention ALL areas that have potential to develop.
Just needed to get that off of my chest.
Kevin
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 04:33 PM |
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Re: 07z look
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from the 8:30 disc am discussion 9/7
TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 21W IS ADVANCED AHEAD TO ALONG
26W SOUTH OF 18N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON AN 0700 QUIKSCAT
PASS WHICH WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS
IN WHICH THE WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 23W. GIVEN THE NEW
POSITION...PRESENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT. INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE WAVE IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 23W-27W.
no updates for gen discussion at 11am
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 07 2002 04:46 PM |
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Re:
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The next TWD will be at 2:05 PM. We'll see what it says about the African wave then. Needs to be watched.
Recon is also going into the Bahamas system tomorrow. This could very well be a major hurricane down the road so all interests along the SE U.S. coast should monitor the progress of this system.
Kevin
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Sep 07 2002 06:10 PM |
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Re:
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Fay went as scheduled a moderate TS and went inland 55 miles SW of Galvestine. I actually got the location right on exactly ( that is very hard todo) and still will produce rainfall amounts up to 6 inches in localized downpoors. Elswhere TD 7 has developed and should continue a WNW direction over the next few days. It could become a TS over the next 48 hours but should run into sheering after that. I expect a slow and general movement and head off towards the Bermuda location. Finally the 1st hurricane of the season that i been posting about for a week now should become classified as a TS later on Sunday. Tropical or Subtropical I expect this to be a hurricane later on Monday and move generally N of due W towards the S Carolina area,,then turn and move N then NE scraping the carolinas especially the Cape and move quickly out to sea during midweek. Winds could reach cat 3 but as on now playing back as a Cat 2 for now. Also a area some models want to form off cuba and the keys early next week will be very questionable and I will post more on this later suday and on my own personal hurricane page. scottsvb web page hurricaneupdatecenter