CFHC
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| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:10 PM |
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Subtropical Storm Gustav
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The rare "subtropical storm" (rare enough to confuse our automated tracking systems on our site) is approaching North Carolina. Not a true tropical system, it has winds like one, and is a hybrid style storm.
As it nears the North Carolina coast, it'll pass by and cause some winds and eventually turn north and away.
Apologies for lack of updates the last few days, I've been a bit too busy with other things. (This update will be quick too)
Thanks to Ed Dunham for the updates in the Storm forum, and everyone else here in the interim.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mac]
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:25 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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buoy 42019 west gulf reports rap presser fall 29.86 to 29.75 o.10 look out here we go
| troy2 |
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| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:40 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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actually at 1pm it was at 29.91
even more of a drop
the other bouy in that area also have shown a pressure drop
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:49 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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i dont see any thing there this could be fay moving east looks that way
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:51 PM |
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gulf?
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In what part of the gulf is there a pressure drop? I am going to the Texas coast this weekend, and I do not need a tropical system.
Gustav looks better this evening. Its pressure is falling. The outer banks are in for a rough day tommorrow.
| GOMF |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 09 2002 11:59 PM |
Atl wave
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Been watching the wave around 45W...has kept good convection all day long. Conditions seem to have improved ahead of it. Watch out Winward Islands.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 12:08 AM |
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Re: Atl wave
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Too far North already to be of concern for the islands, even if it develops.
| GOMF |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 12:17 AM |
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Re: Atl wave
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Yeah right...I was looking at an outdated sat pic. This one shows what you mean:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh.html
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 01:51 AM |
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observations 945pm
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gustav has deepened slowly all day and now finally has a partial cdo feature, not a weak core and clusters on bands hundreds of miles from the center. the nhc should change gustav to a tropical storm on the next advisory, as it now has deep convection almost surrounding the center.
i'm surprised the strength was held at 45mph, this needs to be changed too. recon found 53kt flight level winds about six hours ago, which equates to roughly 60mph surface winds. i really hope they fix all of these things at 11pm.
thoughts on the track are.. basically the official blend. the models agree quite well about hooking gustav NE skirting the outer banks.. unusually well. when you get model consensus like this best to go with it.
fay remnants.. visions of fay drifting back offshore are seeming ill founded, but still the circulation persists. hpc advisories say there are only 10mph winds with the system, yet laredo has been getting stronger winds all day long. the center is now south of laredo, southern end of webb county texas, straddling the rio grande. stalled again, no less. interesting that it still has such definition as it has been onshore now for better than sixty hours. very unlikely it will ever make it back to the coast, though.
gulf.. same as last night. nothing in a hurry to form, but sloppy disturbed weather everywhere.
td7.. nrl still tracking remnants as 95L. weak low level circulation popping convection beneath a furious NW shear jet. i will agree with calling it dead now.. it picked the worst place possible to sit and ponder.
waves... 40w wave amplitude up, but crashing into an upper trough, which just happens to be fed by the jet scraping 95L flat. basically, el waveo no formo under el shearo. closer to the islands maybe better luck, but not where it is.
back near 25/30w is another low latitude swirl in a wave, with fair convection. probably wont develop where it is, maybe down the road past the upstream trough.
basin might actually go quiet after gustav. there are some disturbances that could develop, but all seem intent on playing chicken with wind shear.
HF 0146z10september
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 05:07 AM |
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Re: observations 100am
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gustav is nearing hurricane strength. recon has pressure at 992mb, 850mb winds now at 61kt. this correllates to a 65mph tropical storm. pressure has fallen 4mb in the past couple or three hours.
fay moving ssw into old mexico.
unlikely any new systems will develop next 24hrs.
HF 0502z10september
| Larry |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 01:00 PM |
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Re: Gustav now Tropical Storm
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Pressure continues to drop ( now 987 MB) and Gustav is now classified as a tropical storm by the NHC due to the developing inner core of strong winds. Now headed N, so the outer banks may miss a direct landfall.
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 02:28 PM |
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gustav
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has an incomplete banding type eye feature this morning. pressure has fallen 5mb in the past 12hr or so.. 987 is usually a hurricane. winds rated at 60mph by the nhc.. i'd call 'em 65.. since recon has found 62kt and the normal 10% reduction gives 56kt.. ~64mph. anyway inner core not very tight, now very apparent on morehead city radar. either going directly over hatteras or just east.. probably just east.. in about eight hours i'd guess. at the current rate of intensification that gives a 983-984mb storm.. so decent chance gustav will be a hurricane at landfall/closest approach. all that said, a pretty run of the mill outer banks storm.
fay remnants drifting down towards monterrey, texas rains lessen from here on.
gulf system that various models have been wanting to create in various places isnt embellishing on its intentions.. thats if it really is in the future. surface wind field in the gulf has been chaotic for days.
very intense convergence convection south of gustav over the bahamas, surface winds curving around it some. probably not a development threat, and if it were it would just follow gustav out to sea.
td 7 remnants.. yet again, bubbling up convection. low level swirl is still intact near 25/57. upper jet max axis passed ahead, weakening.. and subsidence now pouring down from the north and northeast behind it.. and still the system is sputtering along. by rights it should be dead, but there it is again this morning.
east of the islands the 45w wave is acting up. it has had a surface low with it all the way across.. now the wave has amped up and lost its e-w oblong circulation.. and is throwing some fairly good convection. however, upper trough digging in ahead and shearing the wazoo out of it.. probably get ripped to shreds, would recurve way out there if it did develop any.. but this wave energy will have to be watched if it doesnt shear out.. when it gets further west.
wave behind it at low latitude, not much convection, not as impressive in terms of signature.
thats everything this morning. hanna may be in the works, but isnt very close at this hour.
HF 1424z10september
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 03:12 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Appears a surface low is trying to form near 22.6n and 89w.
Anyone else see the low level swirl starting or is it just outflow from the near by thunderstorms?
SB
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 04:36 PM |
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TS Gustav hooking to west temporarily---cycloidal loop?
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Evident on latest loops, unless it wobbles back to the east it'll go right over or just WEST of Cape Hatteras, may even brush the mainland. Center was becoming better organized, seems to be holding own at the moment.
IHS,
Bill
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 05:00 PM |
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Re: TS Gustav hooking to west temporarily---cycloidal loop?
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meant to say center has become less well organized, but storm is holding own.
IHS,
Bill
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 06:04 PM |
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Re: TS Gustav hooking to west temporarily---cycloidal loop?
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986 mb. just another mb.. still a small center bouncing around inside the main convective envelope. has perhaps tightened the entire circulation just a little, but still broad and atypical. the mini-center did do a tight little cyclonic loop. thinking it will move just east of hatteras late this afternoon... then its on to newfoundland. might behave as michael did in 2000, intensifying rapidly before merging with the extratropical cyclone that will meet it off nova scotia. still probably become a hurricane, though probably not until tonight.
gulf activity looking less chaotic today. 45w wave will maybe spit out a low level circulation to track under the shear.. formed td7 at 25/57 stationary and doing nothing but persisting.
HF 1800z10september
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 07:56 PM |
Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Looks like possible low center forming at about 24.0-90.0.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 08:01 PM |
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Florida may want to keep their eyes peeled on Yucatan...
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(quick post)There is a broad area of low pressure north of the Yucatan that appears to be wrapping some thunderstorms into it. There is a lot LOT of energy west and south of Florida...so as long as the convection persists we may have TD8 or Hanna brewing by Thursday. I'll have more later tonight or tomorrow on this system.
I will say one thing. As one person was mentioning on here a day or two ago, Florida is long overdue for a major storm from the west. Not saying this (if it forms) will be one but is interesting to ponder.
*I also can't think of any storms that have formed near the Yucatan Peninsula and effected Florida. Can anyone think of any of these storms? Seems like they occured quite a bit in the 30's through the 60's.*
Kevin
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 08:04 PM |
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Re: Florida may want to keep their eyes peeled on Yucatan...
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Opal hit the panhandle.
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 08:05 PM |
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gulf
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sfc obs arent showing anything more than light winds in a broad cyclonic flow. there is subsidence intruding into the gulf off the louisiana coast which will probably inhibit anything trying to form in the area.
td 7 remnants better be dead. convection finally all squelched.
gustav is near closest approach. guess i was a couple hours and a couple mb off.
might end up being a quiet week.
HF 2000z10september
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 08:17 PM |
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But Opal Could Have Been Worse
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She was spinning down when she came ashore on the panhandle, which was fortunate. This is not to downplay her impact, but I believe Kevin was referring to the west coast of Florida (tampa-St. Pete) and points south. IMO there is still too much chaos in the GOM to get things going for a rapidly intensifying system. Models are all over the place, and the biggest question is which part of the trough takes command from the Mid-west to the East; the lead or the trailer? WIll determine the pitch of the Ridge and which way the low?? will go. ETA prefers the W. GOM/AVN the East- Central/ GGEM Bahamas. Meantime 95L hanging by a thread, but if it makes it thru the next 24 hours could regenerate. Seems like the wave at 40ish is getting pulled to the north by the trough, so that might go bye bye. Life is so complicated. Cheers!! Steve H. BTW, El Nino could kill the October part of the season for the Caribbean which essentially turn off the tropics. I'm beginning to think it's looking that way. But hey, i could be wrong, but there are warm anomalies building in the western/central Pacific.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 09:00 PM |
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Re: Florida may want to keep their eyes peeled on Yucatan...
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I agree Florida needs to keep an eye to the SW...to answer your question, and this is from a life long set of experiences, the only storms that have influenced the west coast (westcentral) of Florida have been some late season very disorganized storms such as Marco, and last season's Gabrielle ( which really was a huricane by the way).
There may have been some others, but I cannot recall too many. We have experienced huricane conditions from storms moving north or away to the NW as they pass by, but have not had that direct hit in my life time. Donna was a Cape Verde storm in the early 60's that spun into the coast south of Ft. Myers, and that is the last one. I know Marco and Gabrielle had a direct hit in the Sarasota, Bradenton area, with relatively minor damage of course.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 09:06 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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gulf boys go to bed the dry are to the north is going south another no go this is crazy but true good night
| doug |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 09:07 PM |
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Re: Florida may want to keep their eyes peeled on Yucatan...
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One last item before I sign out again for awhile...it appears that a cyclonic circulation is forming just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it looks more advanced at 5:00p.m. than this morning. Some models are suggesting development by Thursday.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 09:09 PM |
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Re: But Opal Could Have Been Worse
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Don't forget Gordon year before Gabby. SKirted just off the coast and think went up to Cedar Key. The one I remember most was Elena, even though it didn't make landfall here we had some really nasty weather from it and she kept us in suspense for about 3 days. Nothing terrible yet though. And BTW-I agree Gabby was Hurricane. I've heard Joe B. and others state that. Hardly disorganized though went from 40mph to 70mph (atually probably 75mph in just 6 to 8 overnight hours. We're lucky it ran out of room.
| ROB H |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 09:43 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Read in a article in the st. pete times about two weeks
ago. The last hurricane to make landfall near tampa was in
1921 (palm harbor/tarpon springs area) had estimated 100
mph winds, originated in the carrib.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 10:07 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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if this thing goes they say it wont move till sat it could go anyplace
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Sep 10 2002 10:50 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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A very intresting looking GOM this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorm activity. TBW radar shows a heavy band of showers and embeded thunderstorms. Don't think this will hold together but...18z models have a swath of rain from tampa south and west into gulf of mexico. AVN may or may not be overdone with development in gulf. Hard to say at this point given the broad area of low pressure. But certainly something to keep a close eye on this week. Shear maps show the area becoming a bit unfavorable for developmet. But given we have seen some weak storms this season in shear would count this out yet. Take it easy Joe
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 10:52 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Sorry didn't log in on the above post.
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 10 2002 11:29 PM |
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Gulf
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Something just might develop in the gulf but I don't believe it will come our way here in Texas.This is the time of year when we start to get troughs and fronts to come through that take them away from our area. I must say that it was kind of an interesting season for us in Texas but I believe OUR hurricane season here is over. I can now look forward to college football and hopefully cooler weather.
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 12:38 AM |
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Re:GOM
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West Central Florida is long over due for a major hurricane but we've seen a few tropical storms that has caused some extensive flooding problems in the St. Pete area. Does anyone remember TS Josephine in 96? She may have come ashore in N. Fl. but she caused some terrible flooding in this area. Residents in our NE area lost every thing they had due to such severe flooding. I was suprised that a TS that far away would cause so much trouble. When a storm hits N of us the bay acts like a wash tub and just runs over. If we get hit south of here the bay water can actually be pulled out of the bay and flooding is not nearly as bad.
By the way Josephine orginated in the SW GOM . Earl in 98 also orginated close to Texas/ Mexico.
Toni
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 01:05 AM |
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GOM cooking something for the weekend?
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Latest obs from the GOM buoys running pretty low from 1007 in west GOM to 1008 in central GOM.... wind velocities not that impressive generally measuring in upper teens.
http://www.ems.psu.edu/wx/buoydata/curr/gulfofmex.html
IR shows some impressive deep convection in the south central GOM... convection has been relatively persistent for most of the day... certainly something for all to watch...
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 01:15 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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I don't know about you all but Frisco NC on Hatteras Island got slammed. We had four feet of water in our garage. It came out of nowhere. I think the forcasters were a little off on this forcast
Red Drum Pottery
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 01:24 AM |
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Re: GOM cooking something for the weekend?
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oh ya Frank ~!!
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 01:55 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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there will be nothing in the gulf dry air is going all the way to key west the gulf will be nice this weeked all you need to do is look at the w/v loop so go to bed all i here is a storm this weeked not in the gulf
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:06 AM |
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Lake Charles and Houston AFD's this evening..
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SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
845 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2002
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...KEEPING SE TX AND SW LA HIGH AND DRY UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
AT PRESENT...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE GULF. SFC ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOTS OF WEATHER IN THE CENTRAL GULF. SFC
PLOT DEPICTED A 1007 LOW ABOUT 300 TO 350 MILES SOUTH OF CAMERON.
ALSO TALKED TO SAWRS OBSERVER AT KH08. HE SAID THE PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO FALL. SATELLITE...HOWEVER...SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE AREA TRYING TO KILL CONVECTION. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. DO NOT LIKE THE
AVN SCENARIO AT ALL AS STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN BASE OF AN UPPER
TROF. STILL LEANING TOWARDS ETA WHERE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY... OCCURS ACROSS W CNTRL OR SW GULF UNDER 250 MB RIDGE WITH
WEAKER SHEAR.
SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
805 PM CDT TUE SEP 10 2002
MAIN FCST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL GULF. MODELS DIFFER IN
SOLUTIONS WITH ETA AND LATEST ECMWF TAKING SURFACE LOW TOWARD TEXAS
WHILE AVN TAKES SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.
Hey Frank USM got another nice win this past weekend. My REBs will be out here in Texas at Lubbock this weekend, we are going to show them how football is played in the south.... I hope.
Houstontracker
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:22 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Looking at the water vapor loop their inst that large of an area of drier air. Plus currently the Keys have very little dry air.
Doubt the dry air will push that far south and stay there this time of year. That isnt saying anon was wrong and a storm is going to push through FL. Just saying that i doubt there will be a big push of dry air that far south (Keys), unless a hybrid type storm pulls it in with its circulation.
ok that was my once a season opposing view!
Troy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:44 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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drier air ?.......... where the hell you living at NEVADA ?
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:52 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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Alot of drier air moving in behind Gustav too . It is just a pattern of a tropical system . I said so last Sunday .
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:59 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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we need hank frank !!! HAAAAAANK !!!!
| HanKFranK |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 04:59 AM |
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not convinced
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what am i supposed to say? yeah, theres some weather in the gulf, but dry air intruding off the continent. way i see it.. some will persist in the west gulf, weakly, dry air all around, but maybe with a surviving surface low. the convection off the yucatan is moving east.. that pulse of subsidence is moving south acting like a front, causing plenty of lifting ahead of it.. not surprising.. a front doesnt necessarily have cooler air behind it, or much lower pressure, it can better be defined by falls in dewpoint and humidity. serves the purpose here pretty well. the weather moving east towards florida might try to spin up hybrid fashion, then move out into the atlantic. if anything, weak.. more likely just a bunch of rain.
i keep wanting to write off the td 7 swirl.. nrl finally dropped the invest but that damned thing is still there! yes, its popping like one thundershower, but the low cloud swirl still shows on IR2. subsidence abounds, but will gradually weaken over time.. and there is ridging aloft. with the amplification to the northwest this might regenerate by baroclinic means. i hope it goes away or does develop.. im tired of it lingering like a pesky hangnail.
african waves.. one at 45w has been sheared senseless.. the one behind it has spotty convection under a narrow low amplitude upper ridge. but it too will have to submit to the shear monster. interesting: globals take it due west and track it as far as the caribbean. as nothing but a wave, but maybe it will have a window somewhere in there.
gustav.. go to newfoundland. flirting with hurricane status, has another 24-48 to accomplish that.
interesting that it is now september 11th.. day after the traditional peak of the season.. and still nothing has reached hurricane strength. another quirky year.
there, gave my nightly rundown. summary: gustav goes, maybe nothing to fill his shoes. we're actually in an mjo negative span, so wait til it tries flipping back. anyhow, night all.. take it easy.
HF 0448z11september
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 05:16 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Gustav
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lookin at that water vapor loop it appears very un humid around LA . but the humidity at Intercoastal City, is 100%
http://www.wunderground.com/US/LA/Intracoastal_City.html
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:30 AM |
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African Wave(s)
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One about 500 miles WSW of Cape Verdes looks like it has some rotation this morning. UKMET develops this into a quick moving TS at 120 hours, and I buy that solution since the wave has a great presentation and the environment seems favorable now. GOM is up for grabs. AVN still has consistently shown this feature ending up near the south FL panhandle. Canadien has it going thru North central FL then spinning up the east coast. Not sure about all of that. New wave pushing off Africa looks good. Season ain't over yet I guess. Cheers!! Steve H.