CFHC
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:08 AM |
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As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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8PM Update
Tropical Depression #9 has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. More will come tomorrow...
Original Update
Gustav, now a pure tropical system, is turning away from North Carolina, as projected earlier, and may chance have a run at hurricane status before moving out to die in the North Atlantic.
Elsewhere, the Gulf of Mexico has an area that will have to survive shear soon to form, and if it does it won't be anytime soon.
Last year at this time there were no storms bearing down either, but for Washington, DC and New York, NY... and the country and western world as a whole, an attack on us the likes not seen since Pearl Harbor occurred. I myself was stricken by a bacterial form of strep throat at the time... sitting very ill and feverish in a doctors office in south Orlando watching TV waiting... watching before, during, and after it happened intently.
The day was surreal for me, as I'm sure it was for many others. Already feeling rotten, this made it worse until the desire for those to survive and live on and more importantly fight back occurred. Even though I was extremely ill, I managed to overcome it for the day, and it wasn't even on my mind. The confusion and thought that what is next crept in and was more alert than ever before. Before I went home I sat in the deli planet trying to eat, watching the television for news, as was everyone else.
The many lives lost and brave new heroes that came to light will never be forgotten by our generation. I hope and pray nothing similiar happens ever again, but the price of our freedom in the United States is eternally having to be vigilant and ready to preserve it. Together with some our stronger allies such as Great Britain, Australia and others I believe it will remain so.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| 57497479 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 10:04 AM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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On 9-11 last year we had a different type of storm. The impact was felt everywhere. Today, as we look back and remember I want to thank all the brave men and women who serve to keep us safe, and may GOD continue to comfort the victims families.
Thank you CFHC for the opportunity to reflect.
9-11-01 WE WILL NEVER FORGET....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 12:46 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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God Bless America. God Bless Our Children.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 02:43 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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Area of disturbed weather in the Central GOM looking better organized, but no rotation. Most NWS sites have disregarded AVN solution...I wouldn't be that brave. Let's see how it unfolds this afternoon. Wave in the East Atlantic looks good, and the UKMET puts a TS near NE Puerto Rico at 120 hours. Definitely potential there. Quiet this morning around town: 9/11. Let's continue to enjoy the quiet before the storm. Cheers!! Steve H.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 03:17 PM |
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9/11
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rememberance is great, but all i care about now is killing the rest of al qaida and stepping on iraq like an insect. well.. this is the time of year al qaida usually tries something.. sure hope we've crippled enough of them. iraq.. well, could have fixed that problem years ago. u.s. has its back up now, so its either comply with our demands or fight.. that will be 2003. anyone who cared about their country would comply, and saddam never would, so really we will be doing the iraqis a favor and giving them a chance at something other than dictatorship. then again, they seem to like being sacraficed in his power schemes like human pawns. allah akhbar, lets go get martyred, i guess. my question: regular or extra crispy? tropics.. bastardi's ideas this morning about the gulf actually agree with what i thought up last night.. sort of. it's heavy rain and maybe a hybrid system for florida (which may then stairstep up the east coast).. or something that emerges from the marginal environment west gulf and fights its way out.
gustav is now a hurricane, first of the season. awkward that it has a pressure of 975mb and only 75mph winds.. it never did get a classic tropical structure or pressure/wind profile. paying a visit to newfoundland tomrorrow.
old td 7.. drifting wnw near 26/59. i continue to mention it because it continues to exist, though not in an overt fashion. gustav is injecting moisture ahead of this small low.. which will either be swept up or allowed to make another shot at it.
waves.. 45w has had its energy displaced well north thanks to shear, and has the unenviable task of crossing 1000 miles or so of upper westerlies in a not so moist environment. on the other hand, models still track the wave as far as the bahamas in five days. have to see how well it holds.
30w wave.. broad, well defined rotation, but not much convection. more ridging to play under than the one before it. some models like this one (especially ukmet). more convection would make this an invest.. and deepen it. how far it can go before the westerlies on the supercharged TUTT start hitting it.. cant say. if it develops slowly it may keep a more southerly track and be a worry to the islands.. quick development and it gets shunted north and slashed. i favor the first option, as most models are saying so.
may.. may not.. get one this week behind gustav. hard to call.
HF 1511z11september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 04:40 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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NWS Melbourne, FL gives Kudos to the AVN for it's call, which put all the other models to shame concerning the return of moisture across the peninsula and the upper/mid/surface features it called for. Now will they give credibility to it's deepening of the Low pressure area?? Here's NWS Miami:
IF THE LOW OVER THE GULF STARTS TO REALLY DEVELOP LIKE THE AVN IS
SAYING THEN WE COULD THEN POSSIBILITY SEE MORE RAINFALL THEN WHAT WE
ARE FORECASTING FOR OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. BUT I AM
WAITING ON NHC DISCUSSION BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANCES TO THE ZONES TO
INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
Guess it's wait and see if pressures fall and one develops. Cheers!! Steve H.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 04:55 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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with most of south fla under a flood watch because of this "system" looks like the nhc would investigate this today instead of tomorrow.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 05:40 PM |
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Plan For Tomorrow
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116
NOUS42 KNHC 111430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 11 SEP 2002
SUBJECT: THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z SEP TO 13/1100Z SEP 2002
TCPOD NUMBER.....02-112
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 12/1500Z A. 13/0000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST B. NOAA9 02GGA SURV
C. 12/1300Z C. 12/1730Z
D. 26.0N 85.0W D. NA
E. 12/1400Z TO 12/2100Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE
A. 13/0300,0900Z D. 27.0N 84.0W
B. AFXXX 03GGA CYCLONE E. 13/0200Z T0 13/0930Z
C. 13/0100Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....BEGIN 6-HRLY
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 05:49 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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Miami NWS AFD 1:01 pm
Advises AVN/NOGAPS/MM5/ and Canadian Models develop Gulf Low, move it east and then northeast to somehwere over North Florida/Panhandle.
Tony
| MoparMitch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 05:52 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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Just reading the NHC text on Gustav and read the following: "...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES."
What does "BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS " mean?
A quick note about 9/11. I was driving into work today @8:40 am. I knew that a moment of silence would be observed at 8:46am. Now, having spent some time in Israel (did a military stint there in the early 80's) the Israeli's observe a moment of silence as follows: The warning sirens go off, and EVERYBODY stops what they are doing and stands at attention. I mean EVERYTHING and EVERYONE stops. Even on the highways !! Cars, buses, trucks come to a complete stop, everybody gets out and stands at attention. This is (was) an amazing site. I was not sure that anybody would do that here, but I passed a Church which had the American flag and our state flag (GA) flying at half mast. I pulled in, got out and observed a moment of silence. About 5 or 6 other cars pulled in and joined me. This is the America that I know; we stand together through good and bad. Time to turn the gun barrels around !!! G-d bless the USA….
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 06:19 PM |
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Re: Plan For Tomorrow
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Rad am I reading this wrong or isn't that at 10 am tomorrow they are going out? It looks like they would want to take a look see today. Of course i could be making a hurricane out of a thunderstorm. LOL
Just noticed the tornado warning for South Fla. Looks like they are in for a few rough days of rough weather.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 06:28 PM |
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gustav/gulf
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gustav has dropped to 969mb last recon.. plane called back 91kt winds but in the message body it mentions 100kt ones. the surface mid latitude low developing over the gulf of maine is probably giving gustav that baroclinic strengthening kick, right before they start to merge. that will probably happen tonight.
gulf.. surface winds are showing what is probably a closed low (open west if anything) developing in the central gulf. nrl has gone so far as to tag it invest 98L.. the 19th of the year. lots of intense convection SE of the possible surface system. lowest wind/pressure i found was 1009mb/25kt. since the nhc has found the term subtropical storm suitable for tropical systems that dont have all the classic features, could get a subtrop here within 24hrs, my thinking goes. of course there is major subsidence intrusion to the north and westerly shear.. so also very possibly just an elongated trough with very heavy rain on the east side. recon wont be there until whatever is going to happen has already happened.
HF 1822z11september
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 06:52 PM |
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looks like...
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think the bastardi column has now been locked off to the general public. oh well, great while it lasted.
HF 1847z11september
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:07 PM |
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Joe's still up...
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He put up a post today. Accuweather fades in and out from time to time. I think he's live until the end of September.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:12 PM |
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Re:Just looked at it...
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site is a little slow though.
Houstontracker
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:18 PM |
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Gustav at 100 kts!
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According to the recon data on the NHC site, the latest Vortex Message shows estimated surface winds at 100 kts / 115 mph. This would make Gustav a Category 3 / Major Hurricane. Will be interesting to see what the 5pm Advisory package says about his strength!
As for the GOM, it certainly looks to be trying to develop, but i think NHC should be in there today not tomoroow! Although, if surface obs / satellite / radar show anything they might surprise us with perhaps a Special Tropical Disturbance Statement...
Rich B
StormWarn2000
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:20 PM |
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GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
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9/11: It is really hard to believe that a year has already passed since this has happened. Now is a the time to remember the lives lost...firefighters, police, civilians. These people along with the WTC is now gone but will never be forgotten. Going into unsafe buildings to get people out...that's what I call bravery. Our police/firefighters/military deserve a prayer from everybody. Things of changed a lot since that terrible day 1 year ago. I'll always remember when I was in my first hour class when our teacher rushed in and turned the TV on. With a frantic look on her face she said, "The World Trade Center has been bombed." I will remember that for the rest of my life.
GOMEX (98L): Definitely something forming out there and will probably come in the direction of Florida. Don't know how strong this will get...don't even know if it will be tropical in nature. I'm thinking LOTS of heavy rain from this at the least. If it is a subtropical storm could do lots of damage without being strong...SS's are just different than TC's in nature, especially winds and windfields. Anyway, Florida is due for some strong weather by the end of this week unless INVEST 98L just falls apart. Certainly don't expect that...but given the way things have been this year I'd be inclined to expect the unexpected.
Strange that Gabrielle was happening around this time last year...situation kind of similar in nature to 98L.
GOD BLESS AMERICA
We remeber those lost on 9/11.
Kevin
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:27 PM |
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Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
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Winds 38mph and gust to 46mph with pressure down to 29.76. Somethings going on. At buoy#42003
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:38 PM |
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Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
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still kinda divergent on then evolution of a low SW of Florida. PoPs will be high throughout the 3 day period with easing off the southern zones late friday into saturday. Evolution of a low sw of florida may happen, but dry air on the west side and upper level winds not all toofavorable for a strong system to develop as does AVN/NOGAPS. Im disregarding ETA/NGM solutions of keeping a low in sw gulf. Mid level dry air is already grinding into the area. Future track of low should bring it alittle further east then most forcast. Certainty is very low in exact location. Currently Tampa-panama city in line with Cedar Key. Strength is even more uncertain. UkMet is nonexistant and should be ruled out but Avn is overdone. Right now thinking is that Nogaps solution and Gfdl is best with a weak - moderate TS moving ene then NE to NE gulf over next 48 hours and onshore later Friday night. Intensity though is very uncertain, but mositure in pops of 3-5 inches north fla, 1-4 central, and 2 and under southern expected over next 48-72 hours. Ill post more later on updates and on my personal site. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:46 PM |
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Re: GOMEX INVEST and 9/11 rememberence
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Gulf looks better and better as time goes on. Not sure if NHC will jump this to TD at 5pm, but this is certainly something to watch. Either way FL is going to get some heavy rains over next couple of days.
GOD BLESS AMERICA! (9/11)
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:46 PM |
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Re: Plan For Tomorrow
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No Andy1, looks like 11:00A.M. Hey Cane man good obs I see that , Looks as if something is brewing , Joe B on the other hand has one forming in the bay of Campeche........ Anyway I Know my yard cant take anymore rain , Its allready a "SWAMP" ....
.......C-YAA !
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 07:59 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Looks like the spotlight is shining on us this time, and we may
get to have a little fun.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:06 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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pressure down to 1007.8mb...winds sustained 30-35...gusts 40-45kts at buoy 42003!
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:09 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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Latest NWS tampa discussion says "there appears to be a
low level circulation just west of buoy 42003"
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:10 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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They must classify this at next advisory time. It has 1007mb pressure, a full windfield, falling pressures, and is over very, very warm waters. This thing could blow up quickly. I know the environment is marginal at best, but with the water so warm and deepening occuring already, it should be classified immediately.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:17 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Agree think this needs to be upgraded. This remines me a bit of Gabrielle which become a weak hurricane as it came ashore near venice almost the same time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:19 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Pressure now down to 29.73. What is that converted to millibars?
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:24 PM |
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Re: Cane
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29.73 converts into 1006.7 mb.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:25 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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1006.8 mb
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:29 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Gustav was named with 1006mb pressure. Was a depression at 1010.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:36 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Do you guys think this will be upgraded to depression at 5pm. I don't think they will even though I think it should be. Pressure 1006mb...sustained winds 33kts...gusts 40-45kts at buoy 42003. We shall see....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:37 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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You would think so with such close proximity to land but they seem to be slow lately.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:40 PM |
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NHC wants to see something important before upgrading...
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Actually, I want to see it as well. Persistance. This INVEST is going do one of these:
1. "Go to sleep" after nightfall
2. Bomb big time over night
This probably won't be upgraded at 5:00 PM but the next TWO should raise some concern about it. Those buoy reading are VERY impressive out there for such an bad environment this system has to develop in. Indications are is that by the time this nears the west Florida coast the upper-level winds may lighten up some. This one could get as strong as 75-80 knots maximum. We'll be watching.
Kevin
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:44 PM |
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Re: NHC wants to see something important before upgrading...
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Don't know how much more persistance they need, it's been cooking down there for 3 days already.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:53 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Have not been able to access bouy station, could someone tell me what the cordinates are for #42003 , thanks, trying to figure about how far the center of circulation is to that bouy
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 08:58 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Buoy is 53 NM east of center
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:12 PM |
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Plane goin in this evening
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says the 5:30 two
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:15 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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42003 is located at 28.88N, 85.95W , 260 NM South of Panama City, FL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:17 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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where did you guys get a center from?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:18 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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29.71 and still dropping
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:20 PM |
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Caneman
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Tropical Weather Outlook
Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on September 11, 2002
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gustav...located about 275 miles south-southwest of Halifax Nova
Scotia.
Surface observations indicate that the broad low pressure area over
the east-central Gulf of Mexico continues to become better
organized. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for
development...however there is the potential for tropical or
subtropical cyclone formation in this area. An Air Force hurricane
hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system this evening.
A westward-moving tropical wave is located in the far eastern
Atlantic about 700 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Although the associated shower activity is minimal at this
time...this system has the potential for slow development over the
next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster pasch
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:45 PM |
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Re: Caneman
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Initial conditions of model runs put center at 25.7N 87.1W
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 09:48 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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it looks like it may be trying to rap back on the north side can it push the dry air out is there a chance this thing comes in around ala/fl can this thing set out there a few days
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 10:23 PM |
Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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hello all.....
a question for ya, was not Gabby also the 9th storm of the season around the same date? Not that it has much bearing on the current situation in the GOM i'm sure...
Regards
BD
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:08 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Conditions at 42003 as of
(5:00 pm CDT)
2200 GMT on 09/11/2002: Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 210 deg )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 8.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.71 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.7 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.7 °F
Continuous Winds TIME
(CDT) WDIR WSPD
4:00 pm SSW ( 199 deg ) 27.6 kts
4:10 pm SW ( 216 deg ) 27.8 kts
4:20 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 26.0 kts
4:30 pm SSW ( 196 deg ) 23.5 kts
4:40 pm SSW ( 200 deg ) 23.5 kts
4:50 pm SSW ( 207 deg ) 21.0 kts
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:10 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Yes,
Gabby was the ninth storm of the 2001 season, but it appears this storm will make landfall later (1-3 days depending on movement).
Kevin
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:24 PM |
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More on 98L.
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Just a little note,
I've posted my thoughts on 98L over in the Storm Forum. Comments over there would be appreciated.
Thanks,
Kevin
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:25 PM |
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Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
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Sure looks weak tonite, looks as if the drier air is eating it alive !! just some heavy rains all the way down to Key West .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:26 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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God Bless America
Can anyone tell me what's the chances that the disturbance in the gulf may hit the Alabama, Flordia border? Just Wondering cuz i just moved here from Indy an well i wanna be in a storm but not any huge monster storm. Personally I dont think this storm will develop because there is to much dry air around but it could be trying to wrap more moisture into it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:35 PM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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At 6pm pressure now 29.69 and falling thats 1005.5 mb
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:42 PM |
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98L
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ninth? seventh.. G=7th letter. unless you think depressions are important.
cloud tops have warmed away from the low center, so what nhc might have earlier classified as a td or ts is now a bit weaker. probably still enough to go with to give it the nod, but theyre checking with recon just to make sure. of course i'm not expecting theyll find enough of a center to give us a vortex message, more likely just hear the usual prefab developing system message at 11pm.
personally think the system is loosely organized and has such dry air entrainment that it will never get very strong if it does develop. maybe be a tropical storm.. kevin 80kt is pretty nuts. think the northerly movement is overdone on models, probably be a central florida thing, maybe even southern. not move fast either. whole disturbed area will probably still be viable even after crossing florida as the ridge builds back.
models... have the trough left behind gustav begatting a low.. kind of in the same general area as in former td7. i wonder...
two waves, both looking strong. the one near 20/50 is going to be leaving the shear and under ridging in a day or two, maybe start something north of the islands. of course if the ridge is built back by then it wont be recurving. behind it the other wave, with the turning and spotty convection is nicely defined and staying south. models are following it and so am i.. though not expecting it to develop quickly. as it gets further west the upper trough should make it start throwing convection, then maybe it can become one of those sheared struggling tropical systems. further upstream the synoptic pattern with both of these is for the east coast to open back up.. if we get by these then the cape verde threat will be essentially gone.
i see bastardi is still up. the site did ask me for my accuweather password, so i assumed the worst. still, get him for just a little bit longer. i draw a lot from him, so my awareness will probably suffer when he becomes a pay service.
anyone gustav.. byett noticed the vortex msg and read the same things out of it that i did... but the nhc opted to assume gustav's extratropical-phasing structure made the storm weaker than normal flight level winds would suggest. since the upper and lower systems arent well stacked i guess its a fair move.
nuff then.
HF 2337z11september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:47 PM |
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Recon Vortex Message From GOM
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Looks like we are close to TD 8...
764
URNT12 KNHC 112307
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/2307Z
B. 26 DEG 13 MIN N
86 DEG 39 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 321 DEG 64 NM
F. 048 DEG 21 KT
G. 325 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 303 M
J. 24 C/ 297 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 04
MAX FL WIND 21 KT NW QUAD 2255Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:53 PM |
|
Its official....
|
787
WONT41 KNHC 112334
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL BE
ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
000
WONT41 KNHC 112334
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. THE FIRST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WILL BE
ISSUED AT 10 PM CDT.
FORECASTER PASCH
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 11 2002 11:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
Sorry someone beat me to it
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:01 AM |
|
|
|
td 9
|
they were late.. if theyd have arrived earlier today when the convection was going theyd have found gale force winds. surprised they found a center nice enough to give a vortex msg on. 1001mb.. dont think it will maintain that low with such spotty convection. probably weaken overnight until it can burst some more. seems that if theyre going to issue ts watches, why not give a special 8pm advisory, since they go every three hours anyway when watches or warnings are up..
ah well, td 9 already. surprising.
HF 2357z11september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:03 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
TD8 has formed as expected. I want to look at the next model runs for 00z on the avn,nogaps and gfdl before any strength at landfall is presumed. Currently most models want to weaken the system after 60 hours early Sat. Dry air might want to reach into the deveolping TS hindering it from developing. I will post more later tonight when the new runs come in. I expect more deepening or convection late tonight and especially tomorrow night. Currently thinking 60 mph near Cedar Key Friday night seems best bet but only 40%. On side note alot of good inputs on this site continue, we all like the info alot of you get on ship reports and other data the public cant get from the weather depts all the time. Hankfrank gives a real good idea with reasoning to his perdictions. I welcome his inputs. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:13 AM |
|
Geeze...forgot to log in...
|
That was me...I changed PC's at work and this one doesn't log me in automatically...
Sorry Jeanine!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:26 AM |
|
Re: Cane, Joe, Rad
|
Here in Pinellas County, we've had 2-2 1/2 inches of rain..all the local meteorolgists weren't selling the tropical possibilities on the drive-time newscasts, I guess they'll be singing a different tune now.
Something going on, all right. Just a matter of how far up the west coast it will go.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:32 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
Looks like a crystal river---cedar key--land fall!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:58 AM |
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
looks like the convection is starting to boil once again on the IR SAT>
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:01 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
[color:blue] [/color] Look is that north end starting to wrap around? please, lets get a hot one in the Gulf!!!!!!!!!! :grin:
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:04 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
The Gulf is primed for a storm--the waters are verry warm!! Have to watch out for the dry air trying to intrude!!!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:06 AM |
|
NHC Test model on GOM TD
|
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02091119
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982002) ON 0020911 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020911 1800 020912 0600 020912 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.7N 87.1W 25.8N 87.0W 25.7N 87.5W
BAMM 25.7N 87.1W 25.9N 87.2W 25.9N 87.8W
A98E 25.7N 87.1W 25.5N 86.7W 25.6N 86.6W
LBAR 25.7N 87.1W 25.8N 86.8W 26.3N 86.8W
SHIP 5KTS 31KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020913 0600 020913 1800 020914 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.8N 88.2W 26.5N 88.9W 29.5N 88.4W
BAMM 25.9N 88.7W 26.4N 89.6W 28.7N 90.2W
A98E 26.3N 84.7W 27.2N 84.2W 28.7N 83.3W
LBAR 27.0N 86.8W 27.9N 86.4W 30.5N 84.2W
SHIP 45KTS 52KTS 59KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 39KTS
Models split on predictions... GFDL similar to LBAR... if I were a guessing man I choose more to the east of PC than west at this time...
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:12 AM |
|
|
|
Latest Recon
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 120039
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0039Z
B. 26 DEG 21 MIN N
86 DEG 29 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 152 DEG 27 KT
G. 066 DEG 005 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 316 M
J. 24 C/ 320 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 08
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2309Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:12 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
models she p city land fall each new run move a little west watchs will go up were someone please gess
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:18 AM |
TD 8
|
Seems to be starting to wrap. Could be an illusion. Shear doesn't look too bad, let's see if she can push away the dry air. I'm looking for Florida Big Bend area landfall, but it's too early to see a clear picture.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:23 AM |
|
Re: NHC Test model on GOM TD
|
TD appears to be stationary viewing the radar loop out of Tampa... Center is estimated to be south of Panama City and west of Sarasota. Not very impressive on the IR at the moment...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:24 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
that looks good on rap around look north on w/v moist air coming south if it gets close there will be a good chance for it dry air gone on thursday
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:29 AM |
|
Gustav
|
There's some poor folks up north that are about to get walloped by the kind of storm they rarely see in those parts. Gustav won't have much time to weaken before landfall.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:32 AM |
|
HEY ANON
|
<<<models she p city land fall each new run move a little west >>>
Not to be critical but if I translate your post correctly you have information from recent models that the TD will go more west... what models do you refer to?
<<<watchs will go up were someone please gess >>>
And I think this means you want someone to guess where the watches will be posted... if they are posted.
OK, I'll guess... why not, I'd say somewhere between Pensacola to Tampa Bay.... maybe even a little south of TB
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:33 AM |
|
Re: Gustav
|
My best guess watches will go up over big bend vicinity. Athough this may change tomorrow as we all know.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:40 AM |
|
Re: 98L
|
My best guess is that the watches will go up somewhere!!!!
But,to be a little more specific id say,judging from satellite info.Tampa to Cedar key>
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:41 AM |
|
Watch guesses
|
Tampa to Apalach at the 11pm adv tonight...extended W to Destin tomorrow...
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: HEY ANON
|
agree Frank P., storm does not look that impressive at the
moment, but things can change, even if the center does
go north all the convection is on the se side right now.
NHC says warnings may go up for NE FL. coast. i dont
think so. warnings should go up from cedar key to venice.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:58 AM |
|
Mr. Kelly
|
what are your initial thoughts on td#9? future track and intensity please. any one else?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Mr. Kelly
|
Well, It's a touch early to tell...I'd say it doesn't make hurricane...not much room to work..
Track? Between Destin and Cedar Key is my best first guess...
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 02:49 AM |
|
Latest Recon
|
Still holding together rather well.
ED
URNT12 KNHC 120217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0217Z
B. 26 DEG 27 MIN N
86 DEG 30 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 170 DEG 31 KT
G. 125 DEG 043 NM
H. EXTRAP 1001 MB
I. 23 C/ 334 M
J. 24 C/ 352 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF985 01GGA INVEST OB 12
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2309Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 03:02 AM |
|
Re: Mr. Kelly
|
I am thinking more Big Bend than PCity. the two Bams which have a more westerly track have #9 moving NW not NE at the 9/12 0z run so you can discount those for now.
There is a front moving down. I would guess it would depend on how far south that front gets and when as to how much more to right it moves.
troy
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 03:12 AM |
|
Re: Mr. Kelly
|
Well, you can really discount most of the track guidance at this point...it's too early, and too little sampling going on to get a really good handle on exact locations...steering flow will be weak and diffuse for the next 12 hrs or so, so it's a guessing game at this point.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 03:39 AM |
|
|
|
nine
|
okay.. i was thinking a very weak system dragged across florida. model runs come in and all pretty much take it up this way.. wouldnt have guessed. synoptic environment should improve i think. as the longwave axis to the north passes by shear should lighten and reorient maybe to NWerly.. with a slow moving system shear isnt as much a big deal as subsidence.. it usually takes the two combined to make a kill. subsidence is all the way around the NW semicircle of the storm, but not coming on as heavy. the storm seems to be staking its ground, probably not lose that battle.
so anyway, i'm thinking sarasota-ish, and the nhc official track, though nothing to put stock in.. is up to franklin county. put it in there, we get a bath here in tallahassee.
well, dont see it intensifying much in the near future, maybe weaken some overnight. later tomorrow maybe start to slowly deepen. the 50mph tropical storm intensity strikes me as reasonable.
anyhow other stuff.
gustav is passing cape breton island, still a hurricane. may still have tropical structure when it smashes into newfoundland tomorrow morning. nothing too out of the ordinary for those folks.. theyre used to getting rough maritime weather (often enough our fish spinners become their windstorms).
td7 remnants.. getting caught in the low level sw-erly flow. this should finally kill it.. one can only hope. currently sliding northward at 27.5/60.
waves: lead wave has a surface swirl... obscured by the shear jet going over, but sw of the convective burst is what appears to be a closed swirl in a broader high amplitude wave. it however is playing in the shear, and not going to develop unless it makes it to the big friendly subsidence bowl in the TUTT, where the shear is light. energetic wave, has to be monitored.
trailer wave is nearing 40w, still a broad tumbling low cloud swirl with spotty convection. still staying south.. might be trying something tomorrow or friday.
thats the basin. the fun never stops.
HF 0331z12september
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 10:27 AM |
|
Re: nine
|
The setup of Nine is similar to last seasons Gabreille. That would make the key tool for forcasating the WV sat. This morning it seems that nine is pulling itself together better than Gabby did, and the influence of the subsidence is lessening. The thinking on the track is that after the frontal trough passes through today the Atlantic High axis will steer this more north than east..this suggests that low level steering will be the dominant factor in the track,and that is highly unpredictable...the upper air visible on the WV also suggests a pulling north of the current environment. So the NHC future track could be reliable. Last Seasons Gabreille was pushed quickly ene by the upper environment and I do not see the same thing happenning today so far to Nine.
Finally the early morning Sat pics. suggest it is pulling energy up from the southeast and is wrapping it around to the west...more moisture there this am than yesterday...this suggests intensification is ongoing...
Movement now...very slow drift to NE toward the Cedar Key area. EDS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:12 PM |
|
TD #9 & 99L
|
Lots of 9's today. TD #9 should eventually head toward Big Bend/ Panhandle as decent TS. GFDL has 92 knots*&$#%#*! Don't think so, but this will have a chance to intensify if it stays in the GOM longer (GFDL puts it not that far east of N. Orleans). Invest 99L looking good this morning at about 12N/42W moving west. Could get interesting down the road as models put it in the SE Bahamas (those that have it) but too early to speculate. Agree with Joe B. that this one has potential to make it across the pond, but there is a weakness in the ridge as it goes into the Bahamas that may let it go north> There I go ...speculating...way too early. Have a great Thursday! Cheers!! Steve H.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 12:20 PM |
|
99L
|
Looks very good this morning as convection has increased around the low pressure.Still is moving west and the islands should keep watching it because this one may develop as it closes in on the lesser antilles.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:16 PM |
|
Re: Mr. Kelly
|
WHXX01 KWBC 121205
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL992002) ON 20020912 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS...
020912 1200 020913 0000 020913 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 41.5W 11.2N 45.1W 11.6N 48.9W
BAMM 11.0N 41.5W 11.2N 45.2W 11.6N 49.2W
A98E 11.0N 41.5W 11.1N 45.4W 11.4N 49.2W
LBAR 11.0N 41.5W 11.3N 45.6W 11.6N 49.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS
...36 HRS... ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS...
020914 0000 020914 1200 020915 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 52.5W 13.0N 56.0W 15.6N 62.3W
BAMM 12.3N 53.0W 13.0N 56.8W 15.7N 63.7W
A98E 11.9N 52.6W 12.2N 55.6W 14.3N 61.2W
LBAR 11.9N 54.3W 12.1N 58.6W 13.1N 65.6W
SHIP 56KTS 68KTS 88KTS
DSHP 56KTS 68KTS 88KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 36.4W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 11.0N LONM24 = 32.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 01:22 PM |
|
|
RE: Uneducated Guess
|
If this system were a little further south, I might be woried of an Opal syle system. With the shear and proximity, TS or minimal Cat 1 seems pretty likely for landfall. With current movement, My thoughts are Appalachicola to Pensacola, right now.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 02:37 PM |
|
|
|
another
|
visibles have td 9 drifting northwest(?). so those model runs taking the depression (or maybe its named now like it should be) up to the central gulf coast. moving against the grain instead of perpendicular to it.. so shear will never leave it alone. should get steadily lighter as it gets closer to the coast, though. tropical storm, pascagoula MS very late saturday is my best guess. most of the weather will probably hit the florida panhandle.
elsewhere.. invest 99L now. convection is mostly ahead of the broad surface low, system is still opting for the southern path. should start moving wnw into the upper SW flow ahead, probably get to the islands as as weak sheared system. middle of next week could be in a very threatening position in the western carib or maybe SW atlantic.
system at 22/52.. getting by the rough part of the TUTT with what is either a just barely closed low or vigorous surface trough. either going to turn north into the trough in the western atlantic or possibly brickwall until the ridge rebuilds. more likely it will turn.
former td7.. yes, still a swirl with one thunderstorm near 29/60. like the last three, think today will be its last day of existence. a more dominant low in the trough will probably swallow it. if not, i predict that it will slowly crawl north into the atlantic for the rest of the month.
maybe H and I storms before the weekend is out. and a likely landfall somewhere between cape san blas and grand isle... of a weak system. hey, why not, another tropical storm.
HF 1431z12september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 03:20 PM |
|
Re: another
|
I agree with you HF on motion of TD9.
From what I can detect on the latest Vis loop, TD9 appears to be moving off to the north-northwest with the center fully exposed and devoid of any deep convection around it... Not sure if the center is going to wash out and another center reform off more to the southeast of existing center nearer the deep convection off to the east of present center (which is not uncommon in a developing system)... However, if this is an accurate motion of the system, and the center is not reforming, then I would think the watches or warnings would shift more to the west????
Frank P
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 04:06 PM |
|
Re: td9
|
TD9 has alot of dry, sinking air entrained into the circulation. It is trying to overcome this now.
I don't see this thing going any place any time soon. It appears to be sitting in the Eastern Gulf for now.
I think an upper low may be forming to the west of td9. This will further impede the storm from intensifying, but should move it off to the northeast later tonite.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 04:20 PM |
|
Frank P.
|
Good Observation. There was a vort heading off to the NNW, but it spun off and "washed" into the western side of the circulation. I believe it's still in it's formative stages but I believe the NRL location is still valid more to the SE at 26.8N/86.2W. But it's shifting around so that too could change. It could sit in the GOM awhile longer than the NHC is suggesting. The wave east of the islands is getting better organized , but it is also dealing with increased shear, which may inhibit it from developing as the SHIPS suggests, at least until the trough pulls out. Again the Numericals take it SSE of Puerto Rico in 72 hours (haven't looked at the shear maps) as an 88 knot hurricane. Don't think it will be that strong, but if the environment gets more favorable as the trough lifts out, it could be a hurricane by then. After that things get interesting. But let's watch the GOM. If TD#9 stays out there long enuf, she could get pushed ENE by the trough early next week. Otherwise heads NNE. Cheers!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 04:27 PM |
|
Re: Frank P.
|
hey hank, i thought you said last night TD will make landfall near Sarasota? Change your mind?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frank P.
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Clearly a hook to the west in the last few visible frames. Doesn't look like that particular circulation is carrying any weather with it though. Models had originally hinted a a N-NW track through the Gulf toward a rendevous in the AL/FL border area. I don't have a call on this one yet. Upper low moving across plains should drag a front through here sometime Monday. If eventual Hanna hasn't shunted off NE by then, it will. Btw, I'm keeping tabs on my battle with the experts. If Hanna hits the FL panhandle as I think it will:
1) My call that Bastardi's Boothville-Appy landfall was underdone is right;
2) Further proof that Dr. Gary Gray's premise that almost all storms this year would be aimed at the Outer Banks, NC yet miss to the east wil have been proven wrong (was an easy challenge for me).
3) My contention that CSU's revised forecast completely underdoes the entire rest of the season comes true.
4) My continued forecast of 13/8/3 continues its own washout, so who am I to talk. But hey, at least I'm on record for challenging experts with substance.
Should be a fun couple of days for the FL Peninsula. Enjoy the downpours!
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:11 PM |
|
Re: Frank P.
|
Well my final forcast now on TD 9 isnt much.Latest guidance shows the ridge building in fast over the Gulf and N florida pushing the TD w a bit near 5 mph. The trough will come down rapidly over the next 24-36 hours picking up the system and pushing it will the majority of the models near Mobile to Panama city. My original thinking was Cedar Key to Panama city. Due to the high building in alittle stronger then anticpated, the 40-75 mile jog WNW pushes wnw the landfall. Strength wise I do expect this to become a TS but still no more than 50 mph as earlier perdicted at land fall and still Friday night.As she turns N and Ne tomorrow, she could get above that strength prior to landfall. How strong she becomes tonight is the key. Other wise not much else to say about this. We will post warnings up at 5pm and most likly make this a TS later this evening. Outside of this TD 10 could be forming near 11N and 44 W moving w then WNW over next few days. A quick side note to TD9 if the west motion countinues this afternoon then warnings might not be posted to 11 and might be pushed more w to near NO. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter web page
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:15 PM |
|
Loop-the Loop??
|
Exposed center is now heading SW. will it do a Loop-the-loop and come back from the SW into the convection?? Still think Hanna will form out of all this...somehow. But it argues that it will sit in the GOM longer. Cheers. Steve H.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:28 PM |
|
Re: Loop-the Loop??
|
Appears the MM5 model is on target. It is the only one to predict this little SW jog. It has a landfall around the Bay St. Louis MS area.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:40 PM |
|
Re: Loop-the Loop??
|
the jog you see SW is just that. It should continue the turn s then se then begin the stall again then move NNE to NE later.
Anyways presurre went up a tad today but should drop later tonight. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:43 PM |
|
Re: Loop-the Loop??
|
Based on movement and expected movement MS. doesn't seemly likely. Sill think Appalachacola area.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 05:50 PM |
|
|
|
change of mind
|
yeah i changed my mind. before recon found a tight 1001mb center last night i thought it was a weak system that was going to follow the flow to the east. now it's doing a cyclonic loop turning sw in the latest pics. so ive gone sarasota to pascagoula.. the nhc track is right up the middle and probably best. hey man, whoever ya be, workin things out. models have been about as finicky as me on this, and thats pretty much what i have to go by. panhandle landfall would be fun here, helene back in 2000 got us out of school.. cause even though the center came in near navarre the heavy weather was here.
well, anyway... looks like an upper low is camping right on top of the storm.. enhancing outflow to the southeast but keeping the steering confused and the subsidence injection on.. but further north things improve. by the last 12hrs or so this thing is off the coast.. say late tomorrow if the nhc timetable is right (too fast if anything) this thing could be deepening some. how fast, nobody knows. 50mph is safe but maybe a tad conservative.
99L... still kind of oblong. upper shear is ahead, but also diffluent and enhancing convection. this thing needs convection, so im betting it would favor organization. still a pretty broad, oblate circular surface turning.
NW of there.. both of the little ones. think an invest at least out of these.. bastardi says a tropical storm. have some doubts, but i can see the possibility.
W gulf (?) have been ignoring, but might be something spooky in the BOC with all the goings on.
HF 1742z12september
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 06:00 PM |
|
Well...
|
The AVN also has this little jog as well...doing a pretty good job with it so far...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 06:00 PM |
|
Re: change of mind
|
MIDLEVEL LOW NEAR 26.4N AND 86.5W.td ROTATING IN AROUND IT.SCOTTSVB
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 06:37 PM |
|
|
|
I don't think it's gonna loop...
|
But it might. I don't see a full circular motion, but it could happen. Might make a sideways script, lowercase "e"
though. Last few frames show the LLC moving slightly (ever-so) south of due west. It's got to hit the roadblock sooner or later and stall out and turn or make that previously described motion.
Steve
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 06:50 PM |
|
Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
|
The NHC discussion earlier sugested the llc wopuld do some erratic loops around the mid level...that may be what is going on...EDS.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:01 PM |
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|
|
trouble..
|
i dont think a neat circular loop either.. something more like a lowercase greek sigma. center should slow and begin to stack on the southerly leg of its loop.. here's where the problems could begin. pressure is down around 1002 and flight level winds are back up.. probably a hanna at 5pm. as it slows coming out of its loop.. steering weakens again before the trough back to the west comes onto the scene.. probably going to deepen much faster than i first anticipated, due to it tracking with the weakening upper level winds as it comes back around. stronger i think, probably a hurricane at landfall. florida panhandle either late saturday or early sunday.
99L about the same in terms of organization.. might note that westerly shear at low latitudes ahead is very weak, much more so than it appears on satelite. so probably just helper shear, with the faster jet further north. so maybe not a struggling tropical storm but a growing one. do think the TUTT will rough it up once in the caribbean, at least a little.
td7 remnant merging in, but i can still see it. i will rejoice when it goes away. it will rain lollipops and donuts.
sharp wave/trough at 22/55.. moving wnw, trough to the north may pull out faster than it can recurve this.. so watch this one.. if the trough doesnt get it, east coast will.
hanna isidore.. josephine..? i wonder..
HF 1955z12september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:08 PM |
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Re: trouble..
|
Where are you getting your pressure and flight level winds. Also, what is the general conversion rate for flight level to service winds?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: trouble..
|
http://weather.unisys.com/eta/4panel/eta_pres_4panel.html
Eta remains bullish on TX Coastal Development but I don't see it at this extreme. All 12Z runs (almost all of 'em) move Hanna much further west than has been speculated. Depending on the storm's direction at landfall (N / NNE / NE), I'll take my chances and go with a Biloix to Dauphin Island Landfall. This may yet be too far east, but it's a compromise. TD #9 is heading for 87.5 as I type, so the further west she goes, the further west she will be at landfall. In any event, I don't expect her center to in any way, shape or form affect LA so don't call it a wishcast!
Steve
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:20 PM |
|
Not HF, but...
|
Here is the latest recon...
726
URNT12 KNHC 121820
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1820Z
B. 27 DEG 06 MIN N
87 DEG 37 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 143 DEG 49 NM
F. 219 DEG 41 KT
G. 135 DEG 101 NM
H. EXTRAP 1002 MB
I. 24 C/ 300 M
J. 26 C/ 314 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/1
O. .1/8 NM
P. AF963 0209A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 41 KT SE QUAD 1745Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
SFC CENTER 8NM EAST OF FL CENTER
In general, it is about a 10-15% reduction from FL to sfc winds.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:28 PM |
|
|
|
flght level winds
|
yeah, your basic vortex message. but theyre kinda iffy sources really.. with gustav they found 100kt flight level winds but never put it up to cat 2. its sort of discretionary.. they could decide to leave it a depression a while longer. i wouldnt. since they started using 'sondes in '97 theyve found that 10% is the normal conversion rate, but only times youll really see that is with a classic well formed hurricane, usually go conservative on weaker or awkward systems.
HF 2022z12september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:28 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
|
Thanks for the vortex message. I guess this shows us at tropical storm status. One question though....what does the sentence at the end stating surface center 8NM east of FL Center mean?????
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:29 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
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Well, that should be just about a T.S. then. I can tell you one thing, this thing has a healthly LLC. IT must now be least 200-250 miles away from Tampa but it has been very breezy all day and not just in squalls. Breezy enouigh to make a fairly large flag stand at attention.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:36 PM |
|
Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
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this girl could blast off at anytime low levels look great just need storms help
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:49 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
|
It means the center surface fix is in a different position than that at flight level...in essence, the storm is leaning in the vertical.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:51 PM |
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Re: Not HF, but...
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Not completely stacked up. Not well organized??? If she stacks up vertically, how quickly could she intensify?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 08:55 PM |
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Re: Not HF, but...
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JK,
Where are you forcasting landfall for your viewers? Looks to me like a AL/FL border storm.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 09:00 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
|
This morning, we were thinking Destin, but now I'm gonna reserve judgement until we see the N motion begin...I'm probably a little further east than you are thinking, but I can't fault you for that either...
Regardless of where the center goes, I think my viewing area is in for some heavy rain and some wind...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 09:03 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
|
Well, its interesting...it's not vertically stacked, so that is not good, but the circulation is REALLY good looking...the primary thing we need for strengthening now is some convection to fire near the center...
Latest recon found sfc pressures down another millibar to 1001...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 09:03 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
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No doubt about that. I just hope we can get a little rain here in B'ham It has been very dry lately. I doubt it gets this far west at my latitude, but there's always hope.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 11:13 PM |
|
Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
|
This is one well really have to watch--when they start this loop stuff--watch out!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 11:15 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
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How far east-Jason?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 11:26 PM |
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Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
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what do you mean lions said this thing will go north the west wind is coming east fast this thing will run north fast 36 hours or can it get left we will see
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 12 2002 11:44 PM |
|
Re: Not HF, but...
|
I think it will be east of the the FL/Al border, and west of Apalachicola...best guess? (and I reserve the right to revise...<grin>) Probably Ft Walton...not gonna diverge from the NHC track too much because I think they are doing pretty good with it....however, if we don't see the N motion begin in the next 8 hours or so, that could change things a good bit...
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:17 AM |
|
|
|
TD9/future Isidore
|
TD9: As far as landfall goes, I'm thinking Pensicola to Appalachacola (did I spell that right?). This is assuming that TD9 begins moving more northerly overnight. If a northerly motion doesn't happen then things become a whole lot more interesting.
On the path I believe this one will travel, the Florida Peninsula should get 1-4 inches of rain tomorrow and Saturday (combined totals). Isolated amounts of 5 inches are possible. Isolated tornadoes and waterspouts may occur in the panhandle. Gusty winds likely across peninsula while panhandle should receive a good, steady 15 knots with gusts as high as 30 tomorrow. Probably will be Hanna at landfall...40-45 knots is what I'm thinking. Won't be a memorable storm unless flooding occurs.
I'll post my thoughts on the future Isidore (12N,43W) by tomorrow afternoon at the latest. My early take: could be big, big trouble for the SE US sometime next week *IF* it can tackle the hurdles ahead of it. That is a big *IF*. Look for my thoughts on the "Storm Forum" here on CFHC.
Kevin
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:17 AM |
|
Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
|
Thanks---Jason-Great job!!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:19 AM |
|
Re: I don't think it's gonna loop...
|
ssw at 6 the south side of the storm starting to rap this could be the start what about this and the ssw at 6
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:29 AM |
|
Hey Jason tell me about the wave east of the islands
|
I am seeing this wave slowly organizing as there is some banding taking place and convection is trying to form near the low center.
Because I am In Puerto Rico that is why I am so interested in what is the future of this wave will be.I know that it will affect the eastern caribbean but In what way it will do so is the question because it has good conditions to develop but the only thing that is slowing down it's developemt is the dry air.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:37 AM |
|
Re: Hey Jason tell me about the wave east of the islands
|
Honestly, I haven't given it any more than a glance this evening...9 is keeping me pretty busy..
It does look as impressive as any wave this year, and it does look like a carib storm...but I haven't devoted any time to it, so you'd really be better served to ask someone else's opinion...I doubt I'd do your request justice!
I'll try to get some time and look at it later...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 12:40 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
new models go west of last track miss looks good still dont have a clue could the front go by and leave this thing
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 01:06 AM |
|
models shift a little west...
|
Hey Steve, check out the these model runs... impact ranges from just east of New Orleans to just west of Pensacola... MS/AL line might be new target ..... of course it's not even moving north yet... if any of this comes to fruition watches or warning should be shifted a little to west... I still like Pensacola as the target area.... stay tuned...
http://www.hurricanealley.net/mdltrpatlt02.html
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 01:41 AM |
|
Re: models shift a little west...
|
And then the 00z runs shift BACK to the east...at least the track models...check them out...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:03 AM |
|
Re: models shift a little west...
|
jason where can i find these track models?
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:08 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
Use Franks link above
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:15 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
Will be interesting to see the what NHC sees for its current movement. All but the A98E show an end to the southward trend. A98E continues with what teh NHC mentioned at the 8pm update with a ssw then a se movment before a turn back to the north.
Been a loopy season.
troy
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:22 AM |
|
Cancel the shift west ... go east young storm?
|
Yeah Jason, looks like the models are pretty much in agreement on latest run... except for GFDL, which was pretty decent of late (old Eddie for example).... and still keeps it just east of NO. Regardless, still looks like your Fort Walton prediction might be right on if the models come to fruition....
still waiting for north movement....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:31 AM |
|
Re: Cancel the shift west ... go east young storm?
|
Pretty long way to go (meteorologically) before we see if I am right or not...I think the cyclonic loop of the LLC around the mid-level center is continuing tonight, and if we had visibles we'd be seeing a S or even SSE motion now, and an east motion overnight...I expect the N motion to start in about 4-8 hrs or so...just in time for the first vis's tomorrow AM.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:33 AM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
look north of u/p new low forming storms trying to rap up there this thing looks like it is doing some crazy stuff and the reg low seems to be trying to fire can one help the other look on the w/v loop
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:35 AM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
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Frank that GFDL run was an earlier run . i beleive the 18z
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:41 AM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
Good point Troy, but still that's the farest west of any GFDL run to date... earlier runs never got it past 87.5W or so... this run is close to 89.5W... regardless, I still feel its a Fl panhandle problem and not a MS or LA problem, if it's a problem at all...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:43 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
hard to pinpoint a exact track. We think we are seeing a drift back to the w again but its hard to see without recon >LOL. How you seeing it Jason in Panama? I might think the NHC might say stationary again but its only drifting. If the turn to the n dont happen by morning, the afternoon might want to take this more NNE then NE into appalachie bay by midday saturday. I disregard the tropical models on usual accounts. Anyways I will post more later tonight. scottsvb
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:50 AM |
|
Jason, Look at the shortwave IR Loop
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir2-loop.html
The center shows up very well, and its seems to be moving slowly wsw again after being stationary for a while. Don't really see a SE movement at all right now. I'm not really sold on the loop thing right now.
Houstontracker
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:54 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
on that frame storms heading for the center what do you think
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:58 AM |
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Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
Great Loop!
From that loop it does seem to be heading (drifting) to the west.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 02:59 AM |
|
Re: Jason, Look at the shortwave IR Loop
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Holly unlyrical lyrics batman, this thing seems to be doin the GOLLIWOP, dancin around in the Gulf like it's on center stage dis stome aint nutin 'N' it aint gunna be nuttin. But please build into a Cat 2-3 and swing into Volusia Co.
(Sorry just trying to piss off the STORM GODS)
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:03 AM |
|
Re: Jason, Look at the shortwave IR Loop
|
Hey Houstontracker, maybe we'll see tropical storm watches put up for Tx/Mexico tomorrow.... hehe...
From what I can tell from your loop, it looks like just a wobble/drift to the WSW, more importantly some significant convection building just south of the center... could be first sign of strengthening tonight.......
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:08 AM |
|
Re: Jason, Look at the shortwave IR Loop
|
well I got the stationary position right on the advisory. I saw steve Lyons report on the update and he still says NW to N. Kinda hard to believe but yeah might happen. I seem to feel the center of the mid level low to the ESE of the current low will become the dominate feature into the morning hours and the spin or the current low will fad out to the west. This is currently seen on infrared sat but hard to always see. With this low becoming the more dominate feature a N progress will ensue early in the morning and turn to the NE near panama city or maybe even E unlike what is forcasted by Lyons. I havnt read the NHC report yet but I feel they will say N then NNE like Mr Lyons said. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:14 AM |
|
Hey Frank..
|
I think this one might be yours, but who knows maybe it will just keep heading SW into the BOC.
Oh well, time will tell, but I gotta get to bed. Have to be at work at 5am.
Houstontracker
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:15 AM |
|
10:00 pm probabilities, shifting a little back to the west
|
Looking at all the data tonight is like watching a tennis match between Conners and Borg... back and forth, back and forth
10:00 pm probabilities from the NHC definitely shows a minor shift somewhat to the west... at 4:00 pm, Pensacola was at 30 and the highest.... Areas to the west have increase somewhat since 4:00 pm. Mobile, Gulfport and especially Buras La all up... Basically Pensacola, Mobile and Gulfport are about equal...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:15 AM |
|
Good thoughts...
|
Good job Scottsvb...echoing what I have been thinking...
I don't like the more westerly relocation of the track...I'm thinking we are just seeing a cyclonic loop...and the longer it takes for the northward motion to begin, the less west vector we will see (if we see anything to the west at all...I have my doubts).
Dr Lyons has my respect...but I disagree with him on this one...I think people (including NHC) are hanging too much on this little westward jog.
But that's just my opinion...I could be wrong! (tip of the hat to Dennis Miller)
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:18 AM |
|
Wow...
|
Awesome discussion...Kudos Mr Stewart...probably the best of the season!
028
WTNT44 KNHC 130304
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2002
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AT LEAST IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS A TIGHT
INNER CORE WIND FIELD WHILE THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAS ALSO EXPANDED
AND STRENGTHENED...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMALL BURST
OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED
SURFACE CENTER AND BANDING HAS IMPROVED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON 2 SHIPS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NMI
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTER THAT REPORTED 30 KT AND A PRESSURE
OF 1003.6 MB. A RECON AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
SYSTEM.
THE DEPRESSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST 3 HOURS
AFTER LOOPING TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 6 KT. HOWEVER...A GENERAL SLOW
DRIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR WESTWARD
SHIFT BY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH
THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BEING THE FARTHEST WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
TIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...INFORMATION FROM A
GULFSTREAM-IV AIRCRAFT OVERFLYING THE CYCLONE INDICATES THAT WHILE
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...THE FLOW WAS STILL
FROM THE WEST ON THE WEST SIDE. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT 500 MB
HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN ABOUT 30 TO 40 METERS ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INCREASED
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO
NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. WHILE THE NHC MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED
WESTWARD...IT IS MORE TIGHTLY PACKED THAN ON PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
THE GFDL AND GFDN KEEP THE DEPRESSION SHALLOW AND WEAK...WHICH
PROBABLY EXPLAINS THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE GETS
STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE
NORTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AS AN APPROACHING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. ALSO...WITH SOME WESTWARD
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...A MORE EASTWARD BIAS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN
AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. IMPORTANT NOTE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
EVEN MORE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF
THE CYCLONE SHOULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 24
TO 36 HOURS...THE AVN MODEL IS FORECASTING A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP
ABOVE THE CYCLONE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS
CLOSELY FOLLOWED AND IT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 45 KT IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 26.6N 87.9W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 27.5N 88.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 29.0N 88.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 30.9N 86.9W 50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 32.8N 84.8W 30 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 35.5N 79.5W 25 KTS...INLAND LOW
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Wow...
|
Reminds me of Elena 85' just cant make up its mind !!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:23 AM |
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Re: Jason, Look at the shortwave IR Loop
|
Scott, interesting observation, however, I don't know if I agree with your post about the LLC fading out and the MLC taking over.. especially if the convection continues to develop around the southern part of the LLC as it appears to be trying to do tonight... now if the convection does not continue, then maybe your prediction might play out
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:34 AM |
|
Re: As 9/11/2002 Arrives Gustav Turns Away
|
If you look at the water vapor loop of the GOM, it looks like a weak upper low may be forming just north of the Yucatan. Could the flow around this feature push the depression even more to the west - just a thought.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Wow...
|
no kidding.. a discussion where they actually discussed, not just fed the usual canned info.
wondering when the depression will decide to keep some convection steady and close to the center, that would get the figurative snowball rolling. the burst south of center could be just that trying to go (dreaming, yes i know). inland later saturday.. bummer. kinda wanted to go to the coast for this one, but need to go up to alabama to help friends clean up a house for sale..
ah well, maybe that 99L will give us another shot at landfall late next week. after all, what could be more fun than an angry hurricane coming up out of the caribbean? ought to be something by saturday, maybe tomorrow if it tightens a bit more quickly.
no fanfare, but the wave/sfc trough at 23/55 is about out of the shear, into the subsidence. prospects arent all that great, but it has shown persistence.. have to wonder.
td7 remnant... NE into the trough. i can still see it, make it go awaaaay...
well, tomorrow im sure it will be gone. at last.
so, hanna on the way, recon is in. isidore maybe caribbean, for the weekend. josephine.. somewhere up the road. maybe near, maybe far. its lucky friday the 13th! dont forget to make a wish.
HF 0340z13september
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:41 AM |
|
|
|
vortex message
|
okay, from 10:42pm eastern.. vortex message called it at 1004 with flight level winds at 27kt. what?? i thought a ship away from the center had 1003 just recently. this adds confusion, not clarity...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 03:50 AM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
True, but this was first pass from the NW quad...last recon (not vortex) found 32.2 in the SE quad at FL...give them a pass or two to firm up the Vortex...
Good link to a guy here in Panama City who plots the recon in real time on his site...scroll down a bit..
Net Waves TD 9 page
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 04:47 AM |
|
Re: Wow...
|
current recon was right. 1004 but that was where the low level center is. Pressures continue to fall near the mid level center to the ESE of there and are near 1005. Both are now reflecting on the other and thats why the stall to the original low has taken place. I expect it to entrain into the mid level center that coming to the surface during the next 4-6 hours and then move NNE then NE friday night. Unless the TD (midlevel low coming down to the surface) doesnt take shape then more weakening will occur and will bring a moist flow to the pandhandle and west cental florida. scottsvb
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 13 2002 05:26 AM |
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a'ite
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1003mb last fix, and they found 45kt flight level winds somewhere. the vortex message also mentions 'curved band 3 or 4 miles from flight center.. mmkay. 2am advisory, finally give this poor little lady a name. nine just doesnt suit her.
HF 0530z13september