(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:14 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

With the new info out how long will it be before the models change?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:26 PM

izzy

feel it's a hurricane next post...here's what it looks like to me today...
general wnw direction...cat 2 by tonight...hit Cuba as a "forming" bad boy...

cat 3-4 lower gulf of Mexico...

cat 5 central Gulf of Mexico

cat 4-5 hit between NO and Panama City...somewhere. and if it doesn't get real close to ya..no big whoop

hate to post that...used to pretend they would all be bad ones. but i think we all are nervous about this one, aren't we?

remember...all sorts of predictions...but watch the OVERALL movement...it will stay intact until steering currents take over...and if it starts to slow down at all..that is WHEN the course usually changes...

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:28 PM

Izzy

By the time izzy gets into the SGOM, it will not need steering currents. It will be huge enough to make its own course.

Southern

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:29 PM

Re: izzy

I was planning on heading out of town this weekend, but think I need to cancel and start making preparations. They are calling for Izzy to have winds of 110 on Sunday with no landfall in sight. I wonder just how big she will get? Hugo or Andrew size? There are alot of folks here in Tallahassee that are very nervous, including me.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:31 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

Well, after finally seeing the discussion, it looks like a lot of similar thinking to here. 5 day forecast scattered from Yucatan to J'ville and subtle changes now could be big later. Hold your hats folks, its going to be a bumpy ride.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:35 PM

Re: izzy

WNW movement continues. Storm was moving closer to due west between 2 and 8 am (if my memory is any good) this morning (1 up, 9 over). However from 8am to 11am, it's gone 2 up and 4 over. Someone said on the last thread that it's moving north. I think what you might be seeing is that some of the banding inside the CDO (the coldest cloud tops in fact) are rotating around the center. Set Goes 8 IR loop for 30, and you can see the gradual nudge WNW-NW. Storm looks almost stationary, so we'll have to wait for the Recon data - which should be fairly soon - for a true position. 12z models (which won't be posted for another 3-4 hours) are already 3 and 1/2 hours old. Without access to true real time modeling, in essence, we are looking back in time to see the future. I'd like to think that with Super Computers, we could do better. Anyway, possible stall out after crossing Cuba is possible. NHC, in their 11am discussion, discounts the effect of the trof getting established as the thing that takes the storm up and and out. Apparently GFDL, CMC and UKMET don't agree, but would you prefer to trust a forecaster (probably doctor or master degree), or a computer?

Steve

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:41 PM

I don't see Cat 5

If I were in Tallahassee I'd be nervous too. I'm in Central FL and I'm wary, but not nervous. Big Bend to the Panhandle isn't a bad bet, but if Izzy stalls as expected, all bets are off. The models are beginning to agree on the stall just past Cuba. The question is when would he move again. The NE turn almost always happens, which is why FL isn't out of the woods yet.
Anyway, conditions are ripe in the Gulf, but not enough to support Cat5. Cat 5 takes an extremely rare set of conditions, which don't happen often around here. So I don't see Izzy as being more than a strong Cat 3, which is impressive enough.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:46 PM

Round and Round he goes...

Here is a current link to the storm:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html I take it the center of the storm is in the dark blue patch.

Here is a link that you-all may want to refer to in 48 hours:
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=dryf1
It is to the Data Bouy at Dry Tortugas, FL

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 03:58 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

it looks to me like you could a eye in the first frame and then it disappeared. anyone else see that.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:01 PM

WOW - 99 people on line...

Thanks to the fabulous furry Cornelius Brothers are always in order for fronting us this cool site and paying all the server bills. You guys rule!

**edit** 108 people on line - 15 registered, 93 anonymouses. No kidding.

Thanks.

Steve

PaulyAce2002

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:07 PM

Re: WOW - 99 people on line...

Couldn't agree more...I became registered today with Florida more looking like the target, but this is still anyone's game.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:12 PM

Re: I don't see Cat 5

I don't see cat 5 either...I did say 3 earlier in the last thread, but now I think maybe not. However upper 2 (110mph) is probable...why?
The WV shows a clash in the upper atmosphere setting up at about 90w.. an upper low is evident in the GOM and the push from the west is seen trying to make headway to the east. This seems to be setting up a boundary for the current environment that is sustaining the storm at about 87-90w The UL is not moving over the entire course of the loop...the flow arond the upper low over the Yucatan is clearly South to North..and this will only be a negative on the strengthening of the storm once it gets into the GOM. Of course this could back off, but it does not look like it will. This is why, I think the models slow the storm and most keep it around 85w for a few days.
Eventually all this has to give...and depending on how strong the push from the west is and how quickly it begins to take over, will dictate where IZZY goes, and when...From past experience I think we can agree that IF Izzy does as now predicted, and moves slowly in the SE GOM until the rather strong trough coming down later to provide the imptus for the push east...once that push begins then IZZY move very quickly like 15-20 mph in what ever direction he goes......anybody N or even ENE of the storm when that happens remains vulnerable IMO...
I think it is entirely possible for all this to play itself out by Monday, and would be surprised if it is still around Tuesday or certainly Wednesday.

PaulyAce2002

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:13 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

I wonder how the Cuban Airspace restrictions are effecting things with recon today. This looks like a sure-fire hurricane at either 2 or 5pm.

Just tuned in Jeff Beradelli on Channel 10 here, and they are still playing it to be a toss-up after three days. They already got reporters at the Salvation Army, trying to encourage people to get prepared.

Right now, that's not a bad idea. WAY too early to know for sure.

Cycloneye

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:17 PM

May go anywhere

All residents from Brownsville to the keys should keep watching the progress of this potentiallly dangerous system that even the folks of the TPC dont know after 3 days where it will go.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:20 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

tropical suite models and even ETA model show more W track s of cuba to near Cancun Mexico during next 6 hours which agrees with the AVN. Models are as of the new 12z runs. scottsvb

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:21 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

Paulyace, what town are you in?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:24 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

vis now shows a jog to the NNW again but generally more NW. This has to come onshore around 82W or so to take out the wsw turn by the avn. new 12z avn isnt out yet but should soon. scottsvb

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:31 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

I'm checking this out from a lobby of a hotel... and now I just can't wait to get back. Apologies all. I should be back around by tomorrow to fix some nagging problems that are coming to light under this heavy load.

Can't do much right now though

.

As the 11AM discussion put it, get out the Chaos Theory books. The forecast past 3 days or so is about as good as it'll get now. Everyone in the Gulf area needs to watch this.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:41 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

you can finally see an eye starting to show up on visibles. Doesn't look to have moved much.

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:42 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

Just flipped through the 72hr model fixes off the Penn State site: NONE OF THEM HAVE IT PAST 90W! this is the 00z run for all...AVN, Nogaps, GFDL, the two MM's, Canadian and UKMET...

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:44 PM

Re: izzy

It's so hard to look at a satellite picture and actually see just how big or small a storm is...I remember when Floyd came barreling down the pike (or maybe I should say up?) the closer it got the bigger it looked. I also remember looking at Floyd 24-36 hours before it brushed the Florida coastline and thinking, "Holy Sheet!"
By looking at Izzy, I noticed that when it was near Jamaica it looked as though it was 2x the size of that country. I don't know how big Jamaica is, so I can't give an estimate as to how much area the actual system covers.

However, having looked back the Public Advisories I see that yesterday's 11AM Advisory said that the Tropical Storm Force winds extended outward up to 85miles from the center of Isidore. At 5pm they changed it 70 miles; at 11PM and 2AM they were back to 85 miles outward; then at 5AM and 8AM it was 115 miles out, and the new advisory says the TS Force winds extend out 140 miles from the center. I'm sure you can all do your math, but it has pretty much doubled as far as how far out those winds extend in only 24 hours and if that's any indication of how big the storm actually is, well you can draw your own conclusions. That is also very important because it will determine how much Izzy will affect Florida's weather once it gets close. We all know what would happen with a direct hit so I don't need to go into that..but say the storm is only 100 miles offshore someone is gonna feel it. Notice also that the strongest winds were to the north and east of the center....that will make a huge difference on what the Florida coastline will feel depending on how close it gets. When Allison came ashore last year in TX, I was driving back home from GA and I got to Valdosta and had to stop. The feeder bands from Allison were directly over Valdosta, and given the fact that she was not even that strong of a storm, it was a very bad weather situation. Sometimes we got as much as 4" of rain/hour. Not to mention tornadoes, thunderstorms and all the other good stuff that comes with those feeder bands. At one point it rained so much that the water was coming into my hotel room. Not to mention that while I was in the shower the power went off. That was scary also...all I could think of was the movie "Pyscho".

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:49 PM

Re: Round and Round he goes...

The Air Force Reserve flights won't be able to occur while the center is near and over Cuba. Cuba only allows the Noaa craft to fly then, so observations will be limited during that time; but not non-existant.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:51 PM

Re: izzy

Colleen...you can't always judge a storm by how far out it's winds extend....sometimes a very strong storm can be very compact, i.e. Camille... or as you said a weak storm can extend out over a large area..i.e. Allison. Size can be irrelevant in the strength of a storm. Let's hope this storm doesn't get it's act together and cause a major disaster.

PaulyAce2002

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 04:53 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

Im in the Tampa Bay area...a town called Largo, west of Tampa, north of St. Pete, south of Clearwater

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:02 PM

I am thinking.........

Isidore may hit the Northern Gulf coast from New Orleans to Apalachicola. When you look at times past (Frederic, Camille, Elena, Georges) Hurricanes that come from just below Cuba and near Jamaica, usually come up to this area this time of year. (Climatology speaking)

Let's just hope that before landfall, Isidore isn't as strong as he could get. I won't get my hopes up. The beaches have already taken a beating from these past storms. Not sure how much more they can take.

bsnyder

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:04 PM

Re: izzy

To exand on what Colleen said - if Izzy comes up the west coast of Florida, and is only 100 miles or so offshore, do ya'll think there will be evacuations regardless of the "official" track? That seems too close for comfort, given the difficulty in forecasting an exact track for these storms? If it's a Cat II by then, I think the local officials will all err on the side of caution.

Seems like we might have to have massive evacuations all the way up the coast...just like with Floyd.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:08 PM

Hey Doug...

FWIW, 00Z was 17 hours ago. I still don't know if the storm gets past 90 W, but don't put ANY stock in the 00z models. I've got a post in the last thread at the top of page 13 explaining my reasoning, but basically it seems like the Northerly relocation of the center yesterday afternoon played big into those ideas. Look at the 06z GFDL run and you'll already notice a change further back to the west - and that would have been data from 1am while the storm was still moving N-NNW because it didn't take that westerly jog until the wee hours. Look for that to show up in the 18z runs. I just hate that these things are so far behind. Of course it's my own fault for relying on the PSU site rather than going to the official model sources.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:11 PM

Re: izzy

Andrew is another example of a small compact storm.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM

Models are going to be a problem....

Until the storm gets past Cuba. I think we are getting close to the point where we will lose the Air Force recon for a few days and be left with only the upper-air Noaa Gulfstream observations. I don't know how well Cuba land stations are distrubuted, so it may be that the models are going to be going on less data for the next 24-36 hours very soon. Once the Air Force recon can restart on the other side of Cuba, I think the models will reestablish themselves better. For now, might as well roll dice and pick a route. There are good arguments for a lot of cases.

Justin in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:14 PM

Re: Hey Doug...

Steve
What sites besides the PSU site can we find those models?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:26 PM

Re: Hey Doug...

FINALLY A EYE BEGINNING TO SHOW IN VIS SAT. TOO EARLY AND HARD TO TELL WHERE IT WILL GO AFTER CUBA,CURRENTLY SHE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND SHOULD BE A HURRICANE VERY VERY SOON IF NOT ALREADY. ILL MAKE FULL POST IN A HOUR! SCOTTSVB

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:31 PM

Re: Isidore Nearing Hurricane Strength

Hey Scott, definitely a bit further north than west. Should stay east of the Isle of Youth. Darn close to the 82W benchmark!! Cheers!! Steve H.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:32 PM

Where else?

They're all over. You can get them off of this site, you can get them from atwc.org (click "Wx Forecast Models), you can get them from the site of their origin (U.K. Meterology office; Environment Canada; NCEP, etc.).

Steve

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:40 PM

Re: izzy

In reply to:

"Size can be irrelevant in the strength of a storm. Let's hope this storm doesn't get it's act together and cause a major disaster.

Let me clarify and add something to that...I realize that even a small storm can be as deadly as a big storm i.e., Andrew vs. Floyd. Pretty much the same strength, yet a big difference in size. My point is that the bigger the storm is, the more area it will cover. My own opinion is that the size of the storm is absolutely relevant, especially when you are talking about a major hurricane. If Floyd had come ashore and across Florida, we probably wouldn't be talking right now. Because even in Lakeland, which is a 1 to 1-1/2 hour drive to the east coast of Florida and about a 1 hour drive to the West Coast, we were told to expect hurricane force winds INLAND. Whereas with Andrew, it was small enough (and by no means am I trying to lessen the impact it had) that it only affected a limited area. If Isidore becames a major hurricane and sits 40 miles off the coast, if it's big enough we WILL feel it. Also...if it just sits there and spins, we are looking at some major flooding problems. Just yesterday Polk County (where I live) was being told about a potential for major flooding.

I hope you understand what I mean.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:41 PM

Re: CLimatology... Sir Cane

I agree w/ Sir Cane. Check out climatology when the models are too divergent. A good track climatology site is http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ Just click on Isidore and "historical track", and you will see a plot of all similar storms (meaning by month, TD TS or H, and by 300 mile proximity) since 1886. In Isi's case, I see two clusters of climatology tracks. One is AL-MS-FL panhandle as previously stated (about 6-8 tracks). The other cluster is clearly the FL peninsula (6-8 more tracks). Relatively absent is the TX/MX pathway. Right now, I say P' Cola to Appalachicola.

climate history buff - Orlando

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:42 PM

What are the upper influences doing?

ULL off the NW coast of Yucatan Peninsula is now moving a bit N of NW (see goes 8 water vapor - 30 frames). Mean trof axis getting close to TX/NM border still digging SE. Ridge atop Isidore moving along with with the storm, slowing the progress of the cold front whose tail is near the Austin, TX area.

All players down the line.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM

Eye does seem to be forming

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:46 PM

Steve

Can you spell out what that means because I'm not as experienced in this as you. How will that effect Izzy?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 05:58 PM

well...

This is so interesting to me. I just do not recall a storm where, three days into the forecast, the NHC simply has no clue where it might head if it stalls out, as predicted. What makes it worse, is that this one has the potential to be a very strong and large hurricane. Can anyone else recall a Category 2-4 hurricane sitting in the southeastern gulf, spinning, with no steering currents? I mean, this could be a very scary event.

What concerns me the most is the few models that take it into the florida peninsula after stalling. If it does get licked up and starts moving north or east rapidly after stalling, people in florida will have so much less time to prepare than if it heads due north or nw. its just gonna be that much closer to florida to start, if it stalls as predicted. I don't know. I might be overreacting, but no one here is taking this seriously...and i hope to god that wherever it goes, it doesn't take anyone by surprise, because they have been lead to believe they were "out of the woods". i for one am staying tuned.

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:07 PM

Re: izzy

ok i think i can see a move looks more to the west

is this a good sdign for Florida being missed?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:11 PM

Re: well...

NEW AVN IS OUT, SHOWS AGAIN TURN TO SW BEHIND THE TROUGH. AVN IS A PRETTY GOOD MODEL AND SHOULDNT BE IGNORED, BUT IM NOT BETTING ON THIS YET THOUGH I WOULD TAKE THIS MODEL OVER THE GFDL,UKMET,GGEM ANY DAY. NOGAPS THOUGH IS PRETTY GOOD AT TIME TOO. SCOTTSVB

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:22 PM

Re: well...

I agree. I'm watching this one closely until it's completely gone. As the old saying goes, "It ain't over until the fat lady (or man in this case) sings. I'm registered, but i'm at work and can't remember my password

I get these senior moments from time to time.
Kandi

Deltona, FL

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:25 PM

bsnyder

If Izzy is heading due N or NNW when passing by the Florida west coast, evacuations would probably not be ordered for those areas. Possibly would be only for the lowest lying areas. This would depend on the confidence in the forecast, and forward speed, mong other things. Even at 100 miles or so offshore, it would take some time for an Izzy to turn around if he was moving at 15/20mph. During Elena in 1985, comparable in size to Izzy, I was driving around in some horrible weather while Elena was heading N. When she stopped and started moving E, evacuations were ordered and completed before she got within 75 miles or so. Can you turn your car to the right once you are in the middle of the intersection? Only if you are moving pretty slow.
Hope the analogy helps. Incidentally, you may want to look up Elena accounts on the web. Izzy probably will be a very similar storm.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM

Re: well...

NOGAPS AND OTHER MODELS BEGINNING TO AGREE ON THIS, NOGAPS MISSING THE TROUGH HEADING W. IS MY GUT FORCASTING CALL OF A TAMPICO MID WEEK COMING TRUE? ANYWAYS, ISADORE IS A HURRICANE WHEN THE RECON GETS IN THERE. MY FORCAST REMAINS SIMPLE. SHE WILL CONTINUE A GENERAL WNW TRACK WITH WOBBLES NW. ALL MODELS AGREE ON BEING NEAR 23N AND 85 W NOW IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT SOME MODEL PICK UP THE SYSTEM AS IT BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE AND PUSH IT NNE INTO W FLORIDA OR NEAR THE PANHANDLE. OTHERS TAKE HER W OR EVEN WSW ARE THE YUCITAN OF MEXICO NEAR 72 HOURS. MY 8-10 DAY OUT PREDICTION OF A MIAMI TO N OF TAMPA IS STILL THERE IN JUST WATCH HER. BUT AFTER I SAW THE TROUGH WONT FULLY GET HER, I BACKED OFF THAT AND SAID IN HERE THAT SHE WILL PROBABLY THEN MISS THE TROUGH AND HEAD LIKE THE AVN AND MOVE W OR SW AS SHE WILL BE VERY STRONG, REMEMBER MITCH HOW HE GOT SO STONG HE BACKED SW INTO HODURAS, THIS MIGHT ACTUALLY HAPPEN THOUGH I DOUBT HIT THE YUCITAN, AFTER THAT IT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE SW GULF AND TURN NW TO MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE MID NEXT WEEK. AGAIN THIS IS MY 7 DAY FORCAST AGAIN. IVE BEEN RIGHT ON THE MONEY AGAIN IN THESE 72 HOUR FORCASTS AND CANT DISAGREE TO MYSELF ON WHY IT WONT BE NEAR 23.5 AND 84.5 LATE SATURDAY MOVING LITTLE, THE FIRST TROUGH WILL MISS THE SYSTEM BUT ON A OUTSIDE NOTE IF THE NEXT SURGE COMES DOWN FAST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IT COULD PULL THE SYSTEM N AND NE TOWARDS THE W FLORIDA COAST OR PANHANDLE INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRETTY MUCH FOLKS FIRST 6O HOURS IS A 90% BET. AFTER THAT I TEND TO AGREE WITH THE AVN. THOUGH I DONT RULE OUT THE NEXT TROUGH GRABBING THIS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THIS OFF TO THE NNE. THIS IS A 30% PUSH OFF. ILL GIVE A NEW FORCAST AGAIN LATER TOMORROW. SCOTTSVB HURRICANEUPDATECENTER

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM

Subtle key

IMHO, a big thing to watch will be if Isidore passes to the East/West/or right over the Isle of Youth. A pass on the East side is going to make it easier for a Florida landfall. Right over will probably have it stalling in the middle of the GOM. to the west will probably cause it to kick west towards the Yucatan. Not a very wide area; but I think big enough to make the difference in where he will go.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:29 PM

Re: well...

i am not discounting the avn but...it seems to me that it doesn't have the correct intensity with izzy from the start. would this mean that the accuracy of the model would be in question?

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:30 PM

Re: Brett

Brett, it happens all the time. This one is more difficult than most, not as difficult than some. If you actually carefully track the NHC course for each storm, you'll see that many end up on a completely different track than initially forecast. NHC is masterful at gradually changing the track until it matches up closely with what ends up happening. The truth is that we are only decent at guess the next 24-48 hours. After that, minor influences can make major differences in storm direction. Any forecast over 48 hours is pure speculation. That's what makes this so interesting.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:32 PM

East of Youth???

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
What do you think Scott?
I thought I heard if the storm takes Youth on the East side then
the Keys are in a better position to be struck?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM

Re: East of Youth???

IF IT DOES GO EAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE ON NOT THE FIRST TROUGH , BUT THE 2ND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A SIDE NOTE ON THE AVN STRENGTH. I IGNORE THE STRENGTH IT SHOWS IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, THOUGH GENERALLY A VERY STRONG SYSTEM CREATES A BETTER RIDGE OVERHEAD AND WILL STEER IT W OR EVEN WSW. (MITCH,ANDREW,ETC)SCOTTSVB

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:36 PM

Re: well...

one more thing. i have also heard that when izzy gets strong he could blast right through the ridging that is causing these models to run west. is this true?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:38 PM

Re: well...

i thought strong storms liked to go poleward

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:41 PM

haha..sir cane u always were adorable

Like THAT one helps lol

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_climo.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:52 PM

Re: East of Youth???

Interesting Test from Miami

HLSMIA
FLZ067-068-071>075-191345-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002

THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA...
MAINLAND MONROE...MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...PALM
BEACH...COLLIER...HENDRY AND GLADES.

...TEST TEST TEST...PLEASE IGNORE...TEST...TEST...TEST...

...LOCATION MOVEMENT INTENSITY AND TREND...
TEST...TEST...TEST...

...LOCAL WIND IMPACT...
THIS IS A TEST. PS.

...LOCAL SURGE IMPACT...
THIS IS A TEST. PS.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 06:58 PM

Re: East of Youth???

Thats been up awhile. I think they may issue t/s warning or watches for the keys later. i saw something about that in a discussion but can't rember where.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:02 PM

NWS Miami

Mark....I saw that, too and wondered about it. Why the heck would they do a "test statement" on Isidore? Is that a previously scheduled test that just happened to coincidentally have a TS/Hurricane sitting out there or are they preparing?

Colleen-----> Scratches Head

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:04 PM

Test

But wouldn't the NWS in Key West be doing those test statements if they were going to be affected? I didn't think Miami NWS issued those statements for the Keys. Hm.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:05 PM

Re: East of Youth???

Well another day and of coarse not much change as to where this will go when it gets to gulf with so many possibilities. AVN moves it west "very slowly" as a strong hurricane...CMC bombs it west of FL and moves slowly...UKMET moves it towards FL...GFDL moves it towards north central gulf. One thing that has caught my attention other than are soon to be hurricane is the trough pulling out from west. Water Vapor looks fairly impressive and whether this comes along and picks it up is in question. Saw the same Mark Miami testing Hurricane statement. Probably because theres a possibility of watches to their south in the keys. But in any case I think from 90 and east will be prime targets for this major cane.

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:06 PM

Re: NWS Miami

If you notice the time that it was issued, it was earlier this morning when the models,at that time, were pointing towards Florida. In other words, I think it is old news now. With the more westerly track since then, I would suspect that message to be out-dated at this point. That doesn't mean that Miami is in the clear,though.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:09 PM

Re: Test

Hey Colleen,

I believe that if a test is scheduled, but they (the emergency folks) think that they will have to use the system they will postpon the test untill the threat has passed. So people will not be confused as to what is a test and what is a actual warning. We had a test here in Brevard County this morning at 9:30am

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM

Re: East of Youth???

looks like the latest GFDL might have a pretty feasible solution that takes all scenarios into account. A continued NW move, mssing the first trough then getting pushed west or WSW then getting picked up by the second trough and coming N into Mobile Pensacola area as a stron cat3 Most logical run I've seen yet

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:10 PM

Re: NWS Miami

PEOPLE IN THE NORTHERN KEYS TO DADE,BROWARD,PALM BEACH COUNTIES ARE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR NOW ON THIS ONE, THEY CAN GO BACK NOW TO REVIEWING JANET RENOS VOTES EVEN THOUGH SHE CONCEEDED. ANYWAYS THOUGH PEOPLE STILL FROM LOWER KEYS AND W FLORIDA ALL THE WAY AROUND THE GULF SHOULD STILL JUST KEEP WATCHING.SCOTTSVB

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM

We have and EYE....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Or so I think

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:11 PM

Re: NWS Miami

could also be for flooding maybe. but good points colleen & shawn

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM

An interesting off the record note from a chief met friend in SC...

It was from early this morning (just got it), but you can see we're in the same boat with the gurus:

...yesterday he logn range model showed it hitting Slidell, but this morning is now targeting Panama City Beach. Looks like if the trough is strong enough to pick up the storm, it will be drawn into Florida. If not, it will drift into the Southern Gulf and might meander. Several models bring it to Tampico/BoC, but at the moment, I do not see why that would happen. It is still really early to tell, but right now I would count on this becoming a major hurricane....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:12 PM

Re: NWS Miami

Just ran the numbers for the last 21 hours (17:00 09-18 to 1400 09-19). Izzy has moved .9 degrees west, 2 degrees North... That looks like NNW...

ShawnS

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM

Re: NWS Miami

That might be the case, but what matters is what the motion has been lately and that is more of a wnw . If that continue it will bring Izzy more through the Yucatan Channel where it will be over more water.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:19 PM

Re: NWS Miami

I think you ar forgetting the repostioning of the center. Since the center reformed, it has moved decidedly WNW slowly but surely.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:23 PM

Re: well...

For Crying out loud, Scott! I had to read your post about 6-7 times to figure out what you were trying to say, and I'm still not sure if I got it all figured out! First you said that maybe your gut instinct of a Tampico landfall midweek may be coming true. Then you said that NOGAPS and the other models have him missing the trough 36 hours. Then you said that the models were split between a W turn and a NE turn. Then I think you mentioned Brownsville, TX might get it; then you threw in some more things that would verify your forecast for a west central FL landfall; then you told us it wouldn't hit the Yucatan but you might go with a NE turn or you would go with a westward turn. You also said that that was a simple forecast. With all due respect to your meteorology skills, I think that was anything but simple. The only thing I know for sure is that you think that you have been right all along.

The statement "the entire GOM needs to watch this" would pretty much cover what you said in 10 words or less.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:28 PM

Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night

03 GMT 09/19/02 19.7N 79.5W
09 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 80.8W
15 GMT 09/19/02 20.0N 81.2W
18 GMT 09/19/02 20.3N 81.7W (intermediate)

The overall movement of the storm has been .6 North and 2.2 West. That returns a slope of 3/11 - in other words, for every 3 tenths of a degree it moves north, it's going 1.1 degrees west. WNW would be 1/2 (or 2/1 if you look at it as 11/3 which I think is actually the right way to do it). Using old LCD pre-algebra, the difference becomes 6/3 vs. 11/3. That tells me the storm overall has been heading much closer to west than nw. W is 270 degrees on the compass. NW is 315. WNW is 292.5 degrees, then this storm is heading somewhere between 270-280. I can't for the life of me remember how to do cross multiplication - someone post the formula ACK, but anyway, we've had a W-WNW moving storm today. Models will change again at 18z.

Steve

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:29 PM

Catching up/morning thoughts...

Took a morning off from Isidore today...don't want to get burned out on it too quickly, and I needed to see everything with fresh eyes...a few thoughts on general trends and some things posed on the board.

1) In reference to the PSU site, they are a little slow about updating the global models and the GFDL, but it ain't their fault. The Global (non US) models aren't as readily available to US users, and take a while (for some weird reason) to get delivered to US interests. The GFDL, because your federal government has decided that we (non-NWS folks) aren't responsible enough to handle it, time delays the release of the GFDL data to the non NWS community for 6-12 hrs. (Plus, did you know that there are several VERSIONS of the GFDL? GFDN, GUNS, GFDL, GFDUK? Do we get to see those? NOPE!)

2) Izzy is going a little more W than I was thinking last night....does this change the forecast thinking? Not yet, although where it crosses Cuba is pretty important in the evolution of all of this. Late Vis's seem to be a little more Northerly, but I haven't done enough analysis to be sure.

3) Strengthening nicely...in fact, this may be one of those VERY rare storms where we do better on intensity than track...I just see nothing ahead, besides Cuba, to keep it from getting to major status.

4) Long term...boy, I thought this might clear up a bit, but if anything , it's more muddled. The problem is that the global models, as good as they are, aren't gonna reflect what is really going on....because they can't cope with pressures and gradients that low, because the resolution isn't good enough...so you have to look at the smaller scale models (in general...I'm not suggesting to throw out the AVN or anything, but it needs to be weighted)...the GFDL should have considerable weight, because in this case it will handle the processes internally pretty well, since any motion in the mid-term will be storm-initiated, rather than environment initiated. (Does that make sense?)

So, what is there anything new? Not really...we are atill in a wait and see mode. There is nothing that has developed this morning that lends any clarity or weight from one solution to another...just keep watching, and stay alert.

Rickoshade

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:30 PM

track and intensity

still looks wnw to me...and any slowdown is only a generation of a distinct eyewall. general trend wnw...and this motion will make it stay over water. should be a two by morning....raise a notch and hold as a minimal 3....then get into the gulf....hesitate because of missing the first trough, then get picked up and hurled toward some hapless city as a major hurricane. the potential is a 5, and I think the feelings I am having are leaning to a 4-5...probably a 5, and strike as a 4, ....but maybe strike as a 5, IF all the conditions hit just right.

Doubt seriously it will keep going west..unless the trough lifts out or is weak, in which case texas gets the thrill. it won't hit florida either..but will banana north to MOBILE>.....okay, there ya have it...you all knew I was gonna pick my city...I mean, why not....?.....we haven't had a biggee since freddie in 79...

freddy..3
izzy...5
yeah, makes sense to me.

Mobile......flattened

as Bastardi said..."weeping and gnashing of teeth. heck, a cat 3 is BAD enough...I went through one...I can't imagine the trepidation and scare a 4 or 5 would cause....

let's start a poll, eh?....

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:32 PM

Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night

Heres a good link to observations of Caribbean and Cuba... Highest sustainded wind I could find was 30mph on one of the small islands south of Cuba its self.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html

Kimster

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:33 PM

Re: East of Youth???

Colleen,

My first smile of the day... If we haven't all learned yet, when a hurricane makes landfall, then we'll know where it went...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:35 PM

Thanks Rick...

It was only a matter of time. Mobile as a Cat 4 or 5 it is. LMAO.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:42 PM

Re: East of Youth???

I don't know now about it staying east of the Isle of Youth. It's jogging N then W theNW then W, now WNW. BTW, the GFDL, AVN & UKMET now have a more westerly track on the 12Z run. At 0Z Friday they will go right again. But the AVN and UKMET show a large ridge over the central US. Does this make sense guys??? A lot is riding on the Ridge/Trough/Ridge placement with the AVN. Usually 12Z AVN runs are discarded, but sometimes not. It is interesting that the UKMET joins the AVN in AAlmost bringing this into the BOC but not quite. Maybe Izzy wants to tour the GOM before heading for Orlando to fly back home. Cheers!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:43 PM

Re: NWS Miami

Sorry I've been at work all day did'nt see it was old. I'll look better next time!!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:44 PM

Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night

The winds had increased 10mph there in 3 hours but no pressure drop yet.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM

Re: Let's take a look at the overall movements since 11pm last night

Heres 154 PM recon data.

000
URNT12 KNHC 191754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1754Z
B. 20 DEG 26 MIN N
81 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1279 M
D. 50 KT
E. 294 DEG 23 NM
F. 009 DEG 53 KT
G. 280 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 18 C/ 1546 M
J. 22 C/ 1557 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 1751Z.

Rickoshade

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:47 PM

Steve

Hunker down Steve...it could hit La. as easily as any of us...

Colleen gets to watch from Florida...as the rest of us sweat it out. It would be great to have posts from all the areas along the coast...and then as it barrells down on one of us...that person(s) could tell us how bad it is....at least, that is...up until the last few hours...cause by then...the power goes out....the wind gets ta howlin'....and the roofs come off, the trees fall down....and all the mobile homes get repositioned or destroyed....

never forget that cat 3....chainsaws, heat and humidity, and misery for a month and half after that....

Rickoshade

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM

Steve

Hunker down Steve...it could hit La. as easily as any of us...

Colleen gets to watch from Florida...as the rest of us sweat it out. It would be great to have posts from all the areas along the coast...and then as it barrells down on one of us...that person(s) could tell us how bad it is....at least, that is...up until the last few hours...cause by then...the power goes out....the wind gets ta howlin'....and the roofs come off, the trees fall down....and the mobiles homes get repositioned or destroyed....

never forget that cat 3....chainsaws, heat and humidity, and misery for a month and half after that....

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:48 PM

NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......

In relation to the questions about Izzy missing the trough and turning west; or if he gets stronger what he will do, here is what the NHC said about THAT yesterday:

"SPECULATING A BIT BEYOND THREE DAYS...THERE IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH MODEL RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE UKMET AND AVN TO TAKE ISIDORE SLOWLY
WESTWARD. HOWEVER...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...THE ATLANTIC CUTOFF MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR WEST AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS COULD MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY...
RATHERLY THAN WESTERLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF."

Although this was from the 5AM Discussion yesterday and it was only speculation, I am quite sure that it still stands today.

When the NHC tells me that FLORIDA is out of the woods, that's when I'll breath a sigh of relief. Not one minute sooner. If the NHC is having a difficult time determining a track and they are the experts, than how the heck can we say ANYBODY is out of the woods for now? We CAN'T. And we SHOULD NOT. The last time I looked, the NHC hadn't said that ANYONE was in the clear either NOW or LATER.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:49 PM

Vortex message : HUH?

OK, now I am confused. Vortex message with a position of 20.4 81.7 max surface winds only 50knots but pressure is 987??? What happened to the winds?

URNT12 KNHC 191754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1754Z
B. 20 DEG 26 MIN N
81 DEG 39 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1279 M
D. 50 KT
E. 294 DEG 23 NM
F. 009 DEG 53 KT
G. 280 DEG 010 NM
H. 987 MB
I. 18 C/ 1546 M
J. 22 C/ 1557 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 53 KT W QUAD 1751Z.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:50 PM

Re: Vortex message : HUH?

I believe thats the highest they have found so far. Likely higher.

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:51 PM

Rick

LOL, Rick.....your description of the aftermath was inspiring....*grins*

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:55 PM

Re: Vortex message : HUH?

I'm not sure about this, but I'll throw it out there: they said the max flight winds were 50? knts in west quadrant..maybe that's the first report they've given since being out there. We may get another report later. Although, from the way they word it, it sounds as if 50knts was the maximum flight winds of all. Hm. Anyone?

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 07:59 PM

Re: Vortex message : HUH?

That is west quad only....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:00 PM

Major league convective burst!

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html

In the words of Booker T, look at that "sucka" now. Unreal. Cuba's gonna get hammered. Tough luck Fidel.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM

Re: Thanks Rick...

OK Colleen, here's the Melbourne NWS from this afternoon:

BEYOND 00Z SUN...LCL FCST WILL DEPEND ON THE PATH/STRENGTH OF
"ISIDORE"...WHICH IS FCST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY TO THE N/NW THROUGH
18Z SUN AS IT STRENGTHENS TO NEAR CAT 3 STRENGTH. WHILE MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION/PRESSURE PATTERN AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SE GOMEX...THEIR TRACK FORECASTS DIVERGE
BEYOND 12Z SAT. FCST CONFIDENCE BEYOND SAT NIGHT IS LOW. WILL
DEFAULT TO CLIMO POPS FOR NOW... AND AOA CLIMO TEMPS BUT THIS MAY
CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS.

So I did not say we're in the Clear!

BTW, the Melbourne NWS are some of the best in the country and they don't have a clue!! Cheers!! Steve H. PS: IM me at 7 pm. thanks.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:03 PM

Re: Vortex message : HUH?

Read on another board that it could be that they can't get in on Eastern side now maybe due to Cuban airspace. Thoughts........

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:07 PM

Re: NHC's Thoughts from 5AM Discussion Yesterday......

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_climo.html
while not a scientist but being a card player i would have to go with the odds. look at the history. most of these storms have been around florida. i don't know if this one will do the same but the odds are on it. if we have 10 of them and i bet everyone of them would have an impact on fla. bet i would win money. thats why i can't believe some of the post saying fla is in the clear. i hope we are cause this looks like a possible rough one.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:10 PM

Re: Vortex message : HUH?

OK, 50 knots in the west quad makes sense. I know they air force recon does have to be careful of Cuban airspace. Just not sure how close Izzy is to it right now.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:12 PM

IFR Sat.

Has anyone else noticed the thunderstorms are shifting more to the north on the last few pictures. I know its not the center but it looks like a northerly shift. Is this just banding moving away from the center or is it a direction shift?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM

This could be anyone's storm....

If the NHC forecast is correct on calling this storm to sit in the GOMEX and move very slowly, I'd have to think that by 72 hours any possible amplifications would pick this storm up. NWS Melbourne seem more uncertain about this one than ever.

I'm currently thinking lanfall near Pensacola as a category 3 or category 4 hurricane. The Florida Peninsula will feel effects for this reason: look at the storm size! This storm is huge, especially on it's southern quad. That is where all of the rough weather is.

Also...about the models turning this storm west...all I can say is whether this storm goes more westerly or more easterly with time, nothing would be fast to occur.

Another possiblity is a reverse of Elena...Elena tried to go east but a ridge built back in and she went west. Given the situation now, Isidore could try to go west but it would be far enough north to be caught by an amplification and sent NE and E.

Just my thoughts and this time...my confidene beyond tomorrow is 0% barring any major speed or motion changes. Can't pinpoint a location...but still thinking that anyone from New Orleans eastward could get hurricane conditions due to Isidore's large size. We have plenty of time to watch this storm because it is moving so slowly. Just don't be surprised to see big problems by the middle of next week.

Kevin

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:17 PM

Re: IFR Sat.

Aren't the coordinates from the vortex message east of where the center was??????????

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM

This could be anyone's storm was by me.

N/T

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:20 PM

New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...

982
URNT12 KNHC 191942
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/1942Z
B. 20 DEG 29 MIN N
81 DEG 51 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1255 M
D. 70 KT
E. 022 DEG 12 NM
F. 112 DEG 76 KT
G. 017 DEG 007 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 19 C/ 1553 M
J. 22 C/ 1536 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF966 1210A ISIDORE OB 16
MAX FL WIND 76 KT N QUAD 1940Z.

;

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:23 PM

Re: New Recon...Pressure drops and higher winds...

That makes much more sense. Not great news , though not unexpected.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:28 PM

Re: Thanks Rick...

hey steve check this out....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210_model.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:29 PM

Just for Kicks the 12Z NOGAPS

Came in and takes him north of the Yucatan, he does a little dance, loop-the-loop, then heads NE towards the Big Bend as he Strengthens! Cheers!! Stee H.

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:36 PM

Re: New user

I am a newly registered user, but have been an observer here for the past couple of years. Does anyone remeber Donna? And do any of you thing that Izzy could follow the same possible track?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM

I dunno

It's so hard to watch this thing and try to figure the direction its taking. Seemed to me to be moving more westerly today, but now I see it heading more north, with the trough approacing from the west, in this view. Thoughts?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-ir4-loop.html

Cycloneye

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:37 PM

Thanks Jason for the vortex info

That is a real hurricane data from recon and from now on the proccess of growing has begun.

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM

you know..

you know you're desperate to see the hurricane coming your way when every little jog in your direction has you betting it's a new course. well.. much as i'd like to think i have a good bit of this storm figure out (comparatively).. little things keep happening a little different than i expect. for one, after going mostly nnw yesterday, it is going mostly wnw today. for two, the intensity right now is at marginal hurricane.. no rapid intensification.
well, right now im just going to stick with earlier hypotheses and not bother trying to calibrate what is already a crude enough forecast.
jason the met from pc, i have some questions. im fairly familiar with the global models, and mostly use them for predicting where systems will form, not how they will behave once they do. and i understand about the gfdl being a more localized, attuned tropical model. however, curious to know what to make of the nhc model suite. well, there are only about four that i bother accessing, but the bamd, bamm, a98e.. some climo model i think... that bunch.. what should i make of them? im not sure what beta advection (besides it being some thermodynamic energy transfer thing) is, or what the innate characteristics of any of the models are, but as far as knowing when the nhc suite is money and when it isnt.. how should i interpret this stuff?
anyhow.. as this system goes further west and less to the north, the thought that those SW into mexico global runs are seeing the future keeps recurring. the other thought i keep having is that this system could still be around a week from now.
asides: watch off the east coast for a hybrid storm. most of the globals have that upper system bastardi has been calling to cut off all week sending a surface reflection back to the mid atlantic.
central atlantic has an upper trough with a surface reflection.. doubt that will do anything.
still waves coming across, but environment out there is bad and shouldnt improve a whole lot.. season might be over for the southeast atlantic.
one other thing: eastpac system is trying to develop south of mexico. if it deepens, could have upstream consequences for isidore.
HF 2031z19september

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:39 PM

LOL...

Rick is going to have to check his shorts if he clicks on that link, that or his desk is going to mysteriously levitate a few inches

Come clean with me andytom. Admit you want some of that tropical action. You're dying to see a northerly component so you get a shot, huh?

I admited it 2 years ago and didn't get too much heat over it. That's how Frank P and I got to be hurricane friends. He would warn against any storms - so finally I got him to open up his can of hurricane stories and I really gained a lot of respect for what he's experienced first hand.

Steve

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:41 PM

Re: you know..

They just upgraded to hurricane. And I believe them when they say a 3 in GOM.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:42 PM

Re: you know../We have a cane...

Isidore now officially a Hurricane per new advisories...

HF, the "other" suite of tropical models is fairly primitive, at best...I'm gonna get some info and will post again in a sec...

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:55 PM

Model info...

HF,

Read over this first (if you haven't already) and from there I'll clarify...get the background info in first...

NHC Page on Models...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 19 2002 08:56 PM

Re: LOL...

ain't no way ... i ve lived here all my life (+43 yrs) and seen enough of em. my boat is still out of the water from last weekend. i take precautions cause i know what they can do. years back my wife said she wanted one here cause she had never been through one. after a week with no power she said she never wanted to go through another one.