got a situation here.. and our number of cases seems to be multiplying. i'll elaborate.
isidore is still moving slowly wnw.. maybe picked up a little speed in the last few radar frames from the much abused havana radar (hey, im not complaining, they arent being selfish about it.. like, oh, say certain government agencies are with releasing forecast products to the general populace.. but i digress). anyhow been noticing that aside from ukmet the globals dont want a mexican landfall.. even the ones that take it to the BOC do an opal with isidore.. it trims along the yucatan, chills in the bowl, and then comes north at the end of the week. that goes with the idea that one of these shortwaves, or maybe a larger oscillation with the longwave trough replacing itself.. along with a rebuilt ridge in the western atlantic.. will turn isidore up north and then northeast. louisiana has some model crosshairs on it now.. but i still think east of there.
one more thing on isidore.. its crossing of cuba/slow speed have weakened the core.. recon is going to find a weaker system when it arrives. pressure maybe up to 975, winds down in the 80s. but, should restructure its core (lose the double eyewall feature it's been toying with) and be a major hurricane by monday.
rest of the basin: tropical storm kyle will be christened at the 5am advisory. deep convection is there, organization is there. this will be a central atlantic meanderer.. maybe wander sw early next week but probably not even bother bermuda. only interest is how strong it gets, whether it helps pump the ridge in the w atlantic back up faster..
92L.. surprised at how well it's done so far. at first i thought that the deep westerlies in the atlantic were going to kill these waves.. but those are pulling north as the pattern progresses and narrow low latitude ridging is support this wave and the one further east. both have associated low pressure... 92L is particularly troublesome. it will probably develop between 45 and 50w, and enter the caribbean between 14 and 16n late monday or early tuesday.. ships wants it to be a hurricane by then. i dont think so, but think the pattern progression will keep ridging with this system until it probably runs into a TUTT feature that should be organizing as the western atlantic ridge shifts back south to the east of florida. also dont think this will be enough to turn it up.. so this should be lili, and it should keep us busy at least until the end of the month. the further east wave may also try to develop.. but will probably get turned up pretty far to the east.
other areas.. and this should get weird. there is the bastardi pinwheel.. which may or may not be an organized system.. but will probably at least make a run at developing.. and run up from hatteras to cape cod. then there's the avn storm forming near cuba and the bahamas early next week.. that i have a strange and probably goofy theory for. remember that energy that split off the lower end of that trough bypassing isidore earlier.. that had all the convection in the west gulf earlier? also, 98e in that moved into mexico today.. this is the energy that get twirled around by the upper low west of isidore.. entrained in the circulation.. and finally added to the energy left behind the as the upper low east of florida decays and is replaced by the ridge. i know this theory sounds goofy.. but remember keith in 2000.. how that disturbance ran right up behind it, got pushed north into florida, and developed into leslie? thats sort of how the thinking goes.. a bunch of free, non-entrained energy gets focused behind isidore and makes that strange avn siamese twin to isidore.. truly nuts and surely its wrong.. but thats what popped into my head.
aite, why all the activity, you wonder. look at the mjo indexer.. it has progressed eastward and now the atlantic is juiced.
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.html
pair that with nao negative and the fact that it's september.. and thats how we are having all of these systems try to go.
a'ite, zillionth huge post by me. time to check the 2am adv..
HF 0613z21september