| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 28 2002 10:20 PM |
Eyes East
|
A low level circulation spinning off the east coast of Central Florida has many eyes’ open. Although the system has yet to produce any significant convection we still are watching its progress. I feel conditions are just not right for any major development of this system due to upper level winds and sea surface temperatures. But we will continue to monitor and watch the tropics. You can find some great discussions going on in the Forums on this system.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.
- [jc]
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 28 2002 11:54 PM |
Re: Eyes East
|
Well I have to agree with you John don't think much will come out of it other then what you currently see on satellite. 12/18Z models mainly ETA/AVN/NGM never close the low off while NOGAPS/ECMF/CANADIAN do,at least shortly. The front should come east and pick up what ever is left of it and swing it out to sea later in the week.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue May 28 2002 11:59 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Sorry I'am post #1. Forgot to login.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 29 2002 01:40 AM |
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Re: Eyes East
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think back to the summer of 2000, when that tropical depression with one thunderstorm was off canaveral. think further back to arthur in june 1996... exposed center as it moved along the outer banks. sort of blew our collective minds as to what could be classified a tropical cyclone.
here is my take: this is a tropical storm. only not at the surface. so basically all we need is a thunderstorm on one of the inner coils to bring some winds down to the sfc, and voila. hmm.. remember allison last year, as its subtropical remnant was camping on the nc coast.. same thing.. just needs a little spirit. watch it crash into a sea breeze front tomorrow and get going... or maybe the pressure falls as the ridge to its northeast pulls out will do it. either way there is a little coming to maybe give 91L a kickstart.
anyhow byett is the only person who has been mentioning long forgotten 90L down in the caribbean. looks as frisky as ever, meaning a broad sfc turning and a bunch of thunderstorms a couple hundred miles away. it hasnt gone away, therefore i continue watching. the pattern has resulted in both of these things persisting.. they WANT to happen. so until they fade away the chance is as good as ever.
by the way, rad.. is that any kind of example to set for us youthful hurricane watchers? all the stuff they dont include in the brochures that belongs in any hurricane survival kit.. heheh.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 29 2002 02:24 AM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Not in the politically correct brochure !! But its always in RAD'S
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 29 2002 02:44 AM |
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Re: Eyes East
|
Hurricane Junkie Survival Kit
----------------------------------
Beer
Chips
Nuts
Beer
Cookies
Gardettos
Crunch Berries
Batteries
Beer
Ice
Coals
Lighter Fluid
Beer
First Aid Kit
Appropriate supply of medication
Beer
Toilet Paper
Water
Beer
Cigarettes
LighterS
Sun Tan Lotion
Important Documents & Photos waterproofed
Beer
Ice
Steve
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 29 2002 03:01 AM |
|
Re: Eyes East
|
New statement from NHC...
WONT41 KNHC 290248
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1045 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2002
SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 210 MILES EAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT AROUND 5 MPH AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED MORE THAN 120 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULFSTREAM. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND
SOUTH CAROLINA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
FORECASTER STEWART
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed May 29 2002 03:52 AM |
Re: Eyes East
|
One more tidbit - here is the latest GFDL run on the system - 23Z run using 18Z base data:
WHXX04 KWBC 282314
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL STORM INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z MAY 28
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 29.4 76.9 275./ 8.0
6 29.2 77.6 251./ 6.6
12 29.4 78.1 288./ 4.8
18 29.8 78.4 321./ 4.9
24 30.1 78.8 317./ 5.0
30 30.2 79.3 281./ 4.9
36 30.7 79.8 313./ 5.8
42 31.3 79.8 356./ 5.9
48 31.8 80.2 324./ 6.7
54 30.6 83.8 251./32.5
60 30.8 83.5 49./ 2.8
STORM DISSIPATED AT 60 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 29 2002 03:59 AM |
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Re: Eyes East
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tomorrow is probably the only day this thing can develop. it will be ashore by thursday. so it either gets some thunderstorms tomorrow or fizzles. i give it around 30%.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 29 2002 12:34 PM |
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Eyes East... maybe should be Eyes South
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System off Florida this morning is absolutely devoid of convection around or near the center.
But guess what does have convection? How about our old disturbed area south of Jamaica! IR shows some really significant deep convection has exploded south of the Island. Now if the system off the coast of Fl had this convection then we would really have something to watch today.
Observations from the island indicate pressures prettly low at 1008 mb. Ship NE of Jamaica reported winds out of the SSE at 25 K, SST 80.2, pressure at 29.83 (this is several hundred miles away from main convection area)
First we all focused on the Caribbean (Thur/Fri/Sat/Sun), then the focus shifted off the SE coast of FL (Sun/Mon/Tues), and now could it shift back to the Caribbean?
Like watching a bad tennis match. I might develop carpal tunnel syndrome monitoring all this mess.
Need to add man's best friend to the hurricane list... Gotta have my hound dawgs for companionship as I evacuate the wife and kids...... (Rad will confirm)
Oh, and did Steve mention BEER....
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 29 2002 12:47 PM |
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Re: Eyes East... maybe should be Eyes South
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I had just been noticing our little friend down south. I just don't know where (if any) the circulation is. Add a good bourbon to the list. Beer just doesn't do the trick all the time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 29 2002 02:12 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Yesterday the NHC referenced the low in the Carribean as a broad surface low with a pressure of 1007mb, actually lower than the Atlantic low (1010mb)...what I see going on in the Carribean is what has been going on since last Thursday...there is a broad surface low, but there is an upper feature overriding it and the convection is in response to the upper feature (dry air)...not a tropical system at all...still a lot of shear west to east...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 29 2002 02:34 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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sea breeze front, later today. if not then its lots of waiting.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 29 2002 03:43 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Well, up here in NE Fla we are getting some serious rain storms. If nothing else, the low is going to bring us some badly needed rain. I just hope it is nothing like Allison gave Texas last year. It would be real nice for it to sit out there for a few days and just soak us. Is the low bringing any rain to anyone else?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 29 2002 05:15 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Well NRL have dropped 90L Invest (the area in the Caribbean). Interesting as it has some strong convection to the south of the broad circulation now!
Of course i know all the attention is on 91L of the east coast of Florida. This is a well defined low level system with no deep convection near the centre. It does have a nice appearance though, with the two spiral bands rotating in to the centre. THere is still a window of oppurtunity for this thing to develop, but its time is limited!
Well, there is little else to watch so i will keep an eye on both, but i dont expect anything significant to happen!
Rich
StormWarn2000
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 29 2002 05:23 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Hey, where are the steve's at? I figured on hearing from them by now.
Does anyone have any idea if there is a storm chasers group in Florida? I know that there are many in other states, but I have never heard of them in Fla.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 29 2002 05:27 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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I would also suggest a battery powered tv/radio combo. They always seem to come ashore on the week-end and power goes out as your favorite football team is fixing to kick off. I hope a lot of rain makers come this way as we are very dry. no big storms though.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 29 2002 05:54 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Some small convection building up to the north side of the low off the Florida coast... potential for development IMO less than 10%.
Caribbean thunderstorms is getting killed with shear out of west... nothing happening here
Neither one of these systems are going to do anything.... Things could get really slow for a while....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 29 2002 08:16 PM |
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Re: Eyes East
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Listen, I talked to Jerry Springer and he definitely wants to book us for a show. ;-) You and Rad especially. I will be the "normal" one, okay?
Hehehe.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 29 2002 08:52 PM |
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A Question
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Ok, I've been looking at those loops now and I must say that although there are not any big t-storms associated with it, it is still putting out an impressive spin. Also..looking to the east and south of that area and the GOM, it looks like it would not be a great day to be on a boat anywhere in this area. But I have a question:
Those storms that are currently headed south from Texas into the GOM? Is there any possiblity that once they hit the open waters that they could become something? Or just more bad weather for the evil oil rigs? I really am interested as there seems to be a lot of convection headed out into the Gulf.
Jerry Springer awaits. ;-)
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 29 2002 09:07 PM |
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91L
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I earlier thought perhaps this system was dying off, but the more recent visible loops show that after the centre initially became elongated, it has once again 'closed' more. The cloud bands associated with the low also appear a little tighter, and there is some deeper convection now beginning to fire up nearer the centre. Possibly this is as a result of the slightly warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. A slow westerly or west-northwesterly motion being expected means those of you in the Northeast Florida region should really watch this closely. There is still a window of oppurtunity for some additional development.
Rich
StormWarn2000
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 29 2002 09:20 PM |
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Re: A Question
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>>Those storms that are currently headed south from Texas into the GOM? Is there any possiblity that once they hit the open waters that they could become something? Or just more bad weather for the evil oil rigs? I really am interested as there seems to be a lot of convection headed out into the Gulf
1) Check out the SC/NC radar loops. If nothing else, the coastal areas and possibly the low country are getting some much needed rainfall.
2) As to the complex heading down south of Houston, Dr. Joe Sobol on accuweather point/counterpoint today noted that something was going to cut off down in the Gulf. I think, if nothing else, we're seeing the beginnings of the switch in direction from a blazing flow out of the west to a more seasonal flow out of the east, southeast and south. Bastardi said about a week ago that in the 10-15 day period, there was the potential for tropical mischief further west than 90L or 91L could have been.
So it's up in the air. I've seen it happen before, but ususally that stuff just falls apart. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, tonight's models do with that complex. There has been a hint on some of them that the western gulf would be an area of weak low pressure in the coming days (I think it was the AVN and Canadian, but I can't exactly remember).
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 29 2002 09:22 PM |
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Re: A Question
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Let me qualify Point #2. That doesn't mean that in any way, shape or form the flow is out of the east. I'm just saying that the westerly flow has to break down and that takes time. Upper lows, fronts, waves, et al play a part in setting up the deep tropical flow for the summer and early fall.
Steve
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 29 2002 09:43 PM |
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East Pac
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looks like there might be something trying to form just off the Central American Coast. A sign of things to come??? Let's hope not. If the east pac is busy, the Atlantic Basin will be very slow.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 29 2002 11:29 PM |
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Re: A Question
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Just a comment...Earl in the late 90's (forget the year off the top of my head) formed from an MCC that travelled down that same area and set up off shore for a few days....it can happen, especially in the early season.
Certainly not a prediction that it WILL happen, but it does bear watching (I really don't think it will).
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:16 AM |
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Just for Kix...
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http://www.essc.psu.edu/rhart-cgi-bin/mm5-45tc2.cgi?time=2002052900-MANUAL1&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=072hr
The always agressive MM5-45 in 72 hours.
btw, it's the only model doing anything like that.
Steve
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:28 AM |
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Re: Just for Kix...
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Too funny Steve, could happen though ..... Hmmm ..... what does Frank say about models ?? ..
hehehehe C-YA !!
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:33 AM |
Re: Just for Kix...
|
Hey,Steve
Do you think there is any kind of chance of the upper low that is suppose to drag across our area tomorrow actually getting into the gulf and developing? I know that if it did it would take quite a while to do so. With it being an upper low and the sst's not being all that warm right in that area I'm not sure it could pull it off.Any ideas on it?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:49 AM |
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I have no idea...
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Seems like a lot of energy went through there today. We got some pretty heavy thunderstorms in narrow bands here today. If you used some imagination on the visible sat. just after 12, you could trace some of our rain to spiraling around an upper trof and into the SW Atlantic.
We got hit with a TS or Cat-1 in the 80's (was either Bob or Florence) that formed when a complex moved through here, went into the Gulf, then came back northward over land. It seems to me that the shear in the western gulf would be prohibitive, but I haven't looked at any shear models since last night, so that might change or be breaking down with a complex in the area, especially if the upper low has any strength to it. If nothing else, it will slow some of that upper shear out of the west if it sits there for a while, making conditions a little more favorable for the near-term.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 03:52 AM |
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What's up with The Weather Channel?
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I was watching the Tropical Update at 6:50 CDT with Paul Goodblowe. Paul was talking about Alma and how it does not pose a threat for rain to the Baja or the SW US. All 4 "video" Accuweather guys (Ken, Bernie, Dr. Joe, and Joe B) have been saying this thing would curve for the last several days. Even the latest guidance from the NHC puts the storm on a NNE course through tomorrow and heading off to the NE within the forecast period. It's almost like these guys don't even forecast anymore but go off of models and read cue/queue cards. I'm not going to dis John Hope, but TWC seems to be on the decline if not in a tailspin.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 04:04 AM |
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warnings up for 91L
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the landfall of invest 91L on the coast of northeast florida is now imminent, all precautions to protect life and property should be completed immediately. low lying sandcastles in putnam, flagler, and volusia counties are under voluntary evacuation. beaufort force 3 winds and tidal surges of up to 1 1/4" are expected at the coast, and as this system is slow moving the threat of up to 1/10 and inch of rain exists in the path of 91L.
well, better luck when/if it crosses into the gulf. surface obs still suggest a small, weak, closed low.. but as usual the convection is happening somewhere else. then again, once it moves over land it should start to intensify rapidly. that would be a trip, wouldnt it?
yeah folks (especially those of you who live on the gulf west of florida, you know who you are), i too have noticed the models carrying that mcc down off tx/la. mccs are great, little already spinning ready-made convection packages that only need to hear the gospel of warm ocean water to convert from their wicked, extratropical ways. that happens almost every year, and every so often one will sit and stew long enough to start deepening.. but that usually only happens when the atmosphere is gentle and the shear monster is elsewhere... late summer like. considering what time of year it is i'd say chances are pretty slim, but of course any time 'chances' exist there will be mention of it here at cfhc.
peace to all, take it easy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 11:55 AM |
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Interesting Goes 8 IR This morning
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There seem to be upper lows and a surface low or two spinning all over the place. Frank P is under a feed train of a low apparently centered over SE Arkansas for the last couple of hours; convection is building up off the GA coast; there is a blowup off the SE FL coast; looks like a subtropical low 200 miles east of the NC coast; there's a big blob of convection NE of Hispanola; there's an upper low rotating down through TX; and the action just off the Nicaraguan Coast came back to life last night.
While maybe one of these systems goes partially tropical (if at all), we haven't seen this much action in a long, long time.
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 12:22 PM |
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Re: Interesting Goes 8 IR This morning
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Hey Rad, you know my opinion of models... my real problem is that my wife won't let me have any... hehe
Steve ... we got pounded this morning with some deep convection... RAIN... wonderful rain...
Pressure this morning on the Stennis Space Center is low at 1007.3 mb Radar loops certainly suggest some type of broad rotation to the convection, although not sure at what levels.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 12:31 PM |
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Re: Interesting Goes 8 IR This morning
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We were at 29.82 last night during the 10 o'clock news. I'm late for work - I better get rolling.
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 12:44 PM |
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Re: Interesting Goes 8 IR This morning
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Got a chance to view the IR loop. Definite low pressure system located with center in extreme north central LA, near Ark border... doesn't appear to be moving much but certainly firing off some much needed convection off the MS/AL/FL coast areas.
Also very interesting little hybrid type system developing rapidly this morning around 33.5N and 70.5W. Its signature looks pretty good and be interesting to see what, if anything, this system might do.
Much more impressive than the system off the west coast of FL we've been tracking the past two days...
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 30 2002 12:48 PM |
Re: USA TODAY(PAGE3A)
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I read an article in the USA TODAY that said Dr. Grey is expected to lower his April forecast due to lower then expected SST in the Atlantic. Sorry for the bad news but remember it only takes one.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 30 2002 01:14 PM |
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Central Florida Boomers
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Last night we got some pretty nasty weather here in Central Florida...it seemed to just be concentrated in one area...OURS.
About 7:00pm we could hear the rumblings of thunder and then about 7:30 or so, it started to really rock and roll and let loose. It was wicked! It didn't stop until about midnight or so, and I think they said we got 3" of rain. The Weather Channel even mentioned us at 10:50pm! Woohoo! Lakeland needs the publicity...and our pressure was at 29.84. Also mentioned this morning that we could be subjected to more of the nice rainy weather this afternoon. Although, if it doesn't clear up, I don't see much chance of the heating of the atmosphere like it did yesterday. Then again, what do I know?
Ok. Back to loop-de-looing.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:21 PM |
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Re: Central Florida Boomers
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We got some rain up here in Jax last night but I would say that it was more on the 1/4 inch level. As far as Dr. Gray and his predictions go, no one can predict mother nature, if they are going to come they will.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 30 2002 02:43 PM |
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Mother Nature
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Given the fact that yesterday we only had a 30% chance of rain, I take forecasts with a grain of salt. You're right, no one can predict what Mother Nature is gonna dole out and when, so we better not get to confident and rely on past years as examples.
Who thought 9/11 would ever happen? No one in their wildest dreams ever thought that kind of thing could happen here. Well, the same goes for everything else. You just never know what's gonna happen next.
Speaking of which, the weather has cleared up and it's a nice juicy 84 here already.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 03:06 PM |
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resurrection
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i wouldnt be surprised if those invests on the old system 90L started again today, since just southeast of jamaica theres that old familiar turning, but now with deep convection firing on its immediate southeast semicircle (and less indication of tremendous shear).
91L did what i should have expected, seeing as it wants to make tropical cyclone credentials. at just the last moment the small and ill defined low suddenly developed a considerable amount of convection and banked right, now seeming to drift north along the upper florida coast. its headed for wilmington, just like all proper atlantic hurricanes, of course.
well back in the realm of reality i think it's responding to the pressure falls to the northeast. that system, visible last evening but considerably stronger today, is rocking the boat as far as low level steering goes.. maybe it will gobble up 91L. very cool waters beneath it though, low to mid 70s. i very much doubt it will come to anything.
out west the mcc hasnt worked its mid level low offshore yet. maybe later today.
summary IMO the likely story today is southeast of jamaica.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 30 2002 03:31 PM |
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Re: resurrection
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Hmmm. That area is very interesting, HF. It will bear watching, that's for sure. And I do see the area you are talking about NE of 91L, and you're right, it might just gobble it up.
Well. I am dizzy now from watching the loops. Off to run some errands.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 03:41 PM |
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HF
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I think the immediate story is going to be the upper low that cuts off over the NW Gulf. If it sits in there for at least 2 days, it's a weather maker. No model has any concensus as to what it will do. NOGAPS recognizes at 48 but not at 72. No other model really even picks up on it that much. If you watch the WV Loop, you can see the trof split occurring and why the low is likely to close off over the NW Gulf instead of the E-Central Gulf Coast.
As to whether the energy slides SSW into Mexico or not is anyone's guess. The models - as we all know - tend to be all over the place and changing daily in these transitional seasons (spring-summer and summer-fall). But the pictures don't lie.
The two areas to watch this weekend will be off the W LA/Upper TX coast and S/SE of Miami. There could be some flooding rains in coastal South Carolina today due to the massive swath of moisture training up that way today.
Oh yeah - only 2 more days til the start of the season. Everyone needs to get their predictions in on the Prediction Thread in the Storm Forums at least by 6/5.
Steve
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 30 2002 05:53 PM |
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Re: HF
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Hey, where is the prediction page you were talking about steve?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 05:57 PM |
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Re: HF
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The most impressive thing on the sat loop to me right now is the spin associated with the low pressure system now located in Central Lousiana... The system may be trying to drift S-SSW towards the GOM... You get this a low pressure area of spinning convection like this in the GOM this time of year and anything is possible. That being said, a weak system like this is also possible to just dissipate over time, however, convection has been on the rise lately with the afternoon heating taking place... Pressures are 1008 mb near broad center.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 06:12 PM |
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2002 prediction
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12 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 Major storms (Cat 3+)
2 US landfall hurricanes
1 US landfall major hurricane
1 Hybrid (wannabe that NHC does not classify as tropical but we all agree should be)
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 30 2002 06:20 PM |
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Gary
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It's a thread under Storm Forum:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=stormforum&Number=23&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 30 2002 06:39 PM |
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Gulf Of Mexico
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So my question yesterday that "could something happen" with that system easing itself into the GOM was not a dumb one? Good.
I've been vindicated.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 30 2002 10:10 PM |
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Hey! Where Did Everyone Go??
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What, did you all take off with Frank P. and Rad and the models?
Check out the loops from the storms around TX and LA...there is a rotation there. I was watching TWC and you can definitely see that spin there. It will be interesting to watch what happens there and in the Caribbean the next few days.
Back to work.
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 30 2002 10:30 PM |
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Re: Hey! Where Did Everyone Go??
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I hate to tell ya'll but this upper low that is being talked about looks like it will skirt along the Texas coast and never really get into the GOM. It looks to be moving SW and that would pretty much keep it scraping the coast. I certainly don't see anything happening with this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 10:35 PM |
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Re: Hey! Where Did Everyone Go??
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Idiot
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 30 2002 10:47 PM |
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35/70
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Looks like the Low is picking up some friends.
Remember the storm that grew and hung out in South America (BOC I think) last summer. Wouldn't mind a rain maker like that.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 30 2002 11:29 PM |
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Re: Hey! Where Did Everyone Go??
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Hey Colleen, Just got here , I was checking out the radar last night and you guys were getting pounded, My Weather radio went off about 5 times last night between 7 & 9 That sucker just sat right on top of you guys too and rained itself out . We didnt get nothing here in St Pete , The sea breeze just keeps it away from the coast, I witnessed a helluva light show last night towards the east.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 31 2002 12:44 AM |
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Re: 35/70
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Witch,
It sure does look like it. There are plenty of friends, acquaintances and good old "BOC"'s out there for her to play with.
ShawnS,
You're probably right. Any model indication I could find for the 72 hour period shows just general low pressure on the East-central Mexican Coast. But it did rain 4 times here today. That doesn't happen too often.
Steve
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 31 2002 01:50 AM |
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Re: Hey! Where Did Everyone Go??
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Pretty interesting loop of how the west coast sea breeze keeps the t-storms away from the western coast here in Florida. Then as it travels further inland {usually along I-75} It meets the east coast sea breeze and BAM !! Convection. Another vivd light show tonite, with some awesome cloud to cloud lightning streaking across the sky,and distant thunder rumbling ...... https://midds.nlmof.navy.mil/loops/FUS/SEUS4/default.htm ............also looks like some goodness coming off the TX. LA. coast
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 31 2002 01:53 AM |
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Couple of interesting model runs...
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This is the ETA 48 hour 4-panel showing surface low just south of LA.
http://weather.unisys.com/eta/4panel/eta_pres_4panel.gif
NGM does about the same thing without much shower activity
http://weather.unisys.com/ngm/4panel/ngm_pres_4panel.gif
AVN @ 48 does pretty much the same thing
http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/48h/avn_pres_48h.gif
But it likes a 569 Low in the NE Gulf @ 120
http://itg1.meteor.wisc.edu/wxp_images/avn/avn_cpres_h120.gif
NOGAPS, UKMET and MRF don't do much with the low.
The European shows the low initially, then weakens it (which is pretty much what the NHC is doing).
http://www.met.tamu.edu/newmodels/ecmwf500_H_V_plot.gif
Steve
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 31 2002 01:59 AM |
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Re: Couple of interesting model runs...
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Hmmmm...... What do you think Steve? Looks as if something could get brewing.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 31 2002 02:05 AM |
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I dunno...
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NHC thinks the low is gonna spin into nothing. It'll probably brew up some daytime thunderstorms along the northern Gulf due to daytime heating, but other than that, I don't have any tropical predictions for it (rare for me). I was kind of running with Shawn on this one, figuring a broad area of lower pressure would end up on the Mexican Gulf Coast. The only problem with that theory is the strong upper level west winds in that area. Also, the upper low is at the southern end of what looks like a trof split to me. So it's really anyone's guess. What do you think about it Rad?
Steve
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 31 2002 02:26 AM |
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Re: I dunno...
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I dunno Steve wait and see what it does over the Gulf . If it sits there for a while with the diurnal convection, during the day lets see what it does at night .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 31 2002 06:59 AM |
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wait a minute
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nothing happened today. oh yeah.. its still may. why don't i keep telling myself that?
noticed the nhc has shifted its floater cam to the low off hatteras. i would think it rallying for subtrop, but the cool sst boundary is clear on ir channel 2 and pretty much killed that idea. my caribbean resurgence was shafted by lots of shear. and that little low off the florida coast the last few days has become a conformist and vanquished itself. so that leaves us with.. an upper low on the gulf coast.
well that will take forever to make something, so until it starts making a persistent nuisance of itself, i'll just let the gulf coast boys ooh and aah over it.
and i try not to show an east coast bias.. heh.
anyhow bastardi says the pattern will give us more opportunity in the days to come. i await not really expecting anything until he explains it better. as a meteorlogically minded jerry maguire would say, SHOW ME THE CONVECTION.
yes its may and nothing's happening.. but take heart, gray has his almost final word on the season tomorrow..TODAY, and a tom clancy book turned reworked screenplay turned movie is in theaters. should be some disturbing imagery involving an 11 kT nuke and a major u.s. city that i used to live next to. bring the kids. oh, and my kid brother graduates. everybody say: good job, sean.
well, life isnt all bad when there isnt a hurricane menacing, is it?
later all.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 31 2002 10:25 AM |
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Re: wait a minute
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Congrats to Sean. 29.76 here this morning with light winds out of the NE. Radar echoes are bringing coastal showers up from the S/SE this morning rather than the SW or WSW. It looks like the trof is heading pretty far SW, but the energy, convection and showers have moved into the NW Gulf. There are a few strong showers down over the Lafitte area headed this way. But hey, I still have an hour to sleep! L8R,
Steve
| RICKINHOTLANTA |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri May 31 2002 12:20 PM |
Re: 35/70
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I'm back!!!!! this is Rick from Mobile..and yes, I am back to predict a category 5 hitting Mobile...now that i am on an assignment in Atlanta...i can at least get down there in time to see it...
how is everyone? great i hope. this site has changed a lot....best one on the web, i think...i will seriously try to learn and post only now and then (right) but it should be a great year....
haven't read Joe Bastardi's predictions for this year, nor in fact anyone's....we all know nothing gets cranked till mid August...
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri May 31 2002 12:37 PM |
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Storms Here
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Hey Rad...yes, you're right you did get a great light show Wednesday night. I can't remember the last time a storm lasted that long here. Last night we got some more rain and some good boomers, but it was a relatively short storm compared to the one the night before. However, we are grateful for the rain. We sure needed it. My grass is brown (not my biggest worry of the year) but hopefully this rain will have helped.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 31 2002 12:52 PM |
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One More Thing...
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I just finished looking at the IR loops in the GOM and the flow seems be an East-West flow in that area. Given that there's only been a few loops, it's hard to tell exactly how far south it will make it, but if it keeps going e-w, Florida may get MORE rain out of this system. Remember that storms a couple of years ago that came in from the GOM? They pounded FL for almost 3 days. If anything, it should be interesting to watch where they go.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 31 2002 01:01 PM |
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Gray Lowers Numbers
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Dr. Gray lowered his numbers once again to:
11 named storms
6 Hurricanes
2 Intense Hurricanes
This is a mistake - It will be above average - Steve H.
I'm figuring 14/9/3
Lower SSTs than anticipated will not affect an above average season IMO. If El Nino comes on it will be a factor, but I believe it won't be that strong.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 31 2002 04:03 PM |
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What's up Rick?
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Good to see you back. You gotta know that South Alabama is going to get creamed this year by at least a Cat-3. I'm looking forward to it!
Steve