MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 03:12 PM |
Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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3:30 PM Update
Tropical Depression 13 Will be forming near 10.4N 44.9W (East of the caribbean islands) at 5PM, track expected to strengthen into a storm over the next few days. More later.
Recon reports Isidore's pressure drop to 946 millibars.
3PM Update
Isidore is strengthening, and aircraft recon found evidence of a mesovortex (Tornado-like "mini eyes" within the eyewall of a major storm that tend to cause Andrew scale ground damage). Which suggests we may have a category 4 hurricane in the gulf soon. It has slowed its forward motion. I still think it'll scoot a bit more west, but now I think the chances for a northerly turn are greater now. Still the Entire Gulf, especially LA to Alabama needs to watch. This story is not over by a long shot.
Original Update
Bad puns in topics aside, we now have a Category Three Hurricane moving slowly in the Gulf, near the Yucatan Peninsula, that may be in the Gulf for quite a while.
This is both good and bad, good because upwelling may occur and the environment may change to actually keep Isidore's strength in check or weaken, bad because it's a major hurricane in the Gulf that models are going wild with. So it may not decrease.
For example, this mornings GFDL model run shows the storm hanging out in the Bay of Campeche. This still makes the strike zone anywhere in the Gulf from Mexico to Florida, and is a little unsettling. Why, some of the other models, which are longer range, have it heading north after a while, and potentially restrengthening again. The length of time this system will wander around will continue to give EM folks around the gulf coast a headache, and everyone else will need to watch it. Mexico to Florida... still. Concentrating on the north central Gulf coasts from tX/LA to FlAL lines. However, if it slides more westward Mexico may get it (Watch the trends). Although I don't think it'll landfall in the Yucatan.
Kyle is a subtropical storm and is also not going anywhere fast. And two more waves in the open Atlantic will have to be watched. As they may near the Caribbean later.
Jim Williams and Barometer bob are doing live Audio shows starting at 8PM and lasting usually to 10 or 11PM all during Isidore's run. Use the link below to check them out.
Havana, Cuba Radar
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 03:32 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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looks like wobbles to the sw continue, rainfall amounts of near 2 feet over the next 72 hours on the northern and Neastern part of the Yucitan. Somehow if this system stays slow and even stalls at times during the next 60-72 hours. There will be a chance for the turn to the N. Matters on how far south the next trough gets. For florida right now it has to stay E of 90W for the next 60 hours. Ill post a complete forcast later, but my forcast from a few days back on a turn to the WSW came true, but will it make it near Tampico its hard to tell. scottsvb
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:08 PM |
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Isidore looking classic now...
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1) BD: Here are some links for your mom:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goes8hurrir.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
Steve
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:09 PM |
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shared ponderings
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izzy's getting pushed only a little, staying between upper lows. big question now is how far west the storm gets before the ridge to the east rebuilds and hooks it up with a shortwave. my thoughts have changed just a little.
three major differences with the nhc official:
1)system will probably move right along the yucatan coast.. i mean something like 20 miles inland to offshore. land intereaction has a history of slowing the forward movement (it took a really long time to cross western cuba yesterday).. think the nhc track is too fast. not thinking the storm will get west of 92w, but yeah probably 90. think the storm will wobble along its path, but smoothed should resemble nhc.
2)intensity.. naturally mine is lower, since i think the storm will be interacting with land more. think it stays in the 2-3 range through 72hr, except maybe it gets to 4 right before approaching the coast tonight.
3)think after 60hr the wsw component is gone, storm should be moving north of west again.
my endgame has changed too.. shifting it westward, focused on the central gulf. se louisiana to the western panhandle now. expect the storm to bend north, but northeast before reaching the coast. expect it to come ashore at category three/four on thursday or friday.
other systems:
1)kyle. should be fully tropical later today, stall and move erratically through 36hr, then next week start sw and eventually west. a couple of the models have it getting under the newfoundland wheel and accelerating west, as lili did in 1990. not quite ready to take it that far, but suffice to say it could be pretty close to bermuda by the middle of next week.
2)92L. this should be a depression tomorrow. it is moving west fairly quickly, and think it will develop slowly as a result. probably enter the caribbean late monday/early tue as tropical storm lili. whether or not it kills itself with forward speed i'm not quite sure. if it doesnt, will be threatening the western caribbean or southeast u.s. a week from now.
3)the bastardi pinwheel. surface low pressure is disorganized and not moving much, but convection has shifted northward yesterday and something may start to gel tomorrow east of the carolinas. this seems less probable than it did thu or fri, but still a chance it could make some late hour organization as it accelerates ahead of a trough off the east coast. as the upper low decays the area southwest of it up to its remnant axis will have to be watched for further activity.
4)east atlantic wave. basically three possibilites. one, it develops and recurves well out to sea early next week. two, it doesnt develop. three, it moves westward and then develops later next week closer to the islands and becomes another nuisance.
so there, two active systems, maybe one or two more before all's said and through with this span. probably a major hurricane landfall between morgan city and fort walton beach as well.
HF 1603z21september
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:21 PM |
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Preparations done at my house...
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You gotta love tropical season. I took care of my two main worries today - plywood for 2 windows in my safe room and provisions.
We've decided to make my bedroom the safe room because it has access to the attic just in case. There was a need for a 40 x 50 and a 40 x 69 cut of plywood. Got a new flashlight for one of my kids and updated the AA battery supply. Home Depot was just starting to get crowded. I only had to wait about 10 minutes for my plywood to be cut.
I Hit Sav-A-Center next. We bought 12 gallons of Kentwood Spring Water to go with the 36 12 oz bottles of Ozarka I already have. We had a bunch of non-perishables already in stock. I also got some coals and starter fluid - you can never have enough of that if there is power or gas line interruption. Then I picked up a 12-pack of Abita Amber and a case of Coors Light. Beer is another thing you can never have too much of
. I know about 12 of 'em will be gone tomorrow with the NFL, but I can always restock later. Btw, water was getting REALLY low at Sav-A-Center. They still had a few hundred gallons, but that will be gone by noon. I'd say the boys at the Abita Springs and Kentwood bottling plants have their work cut out for 'em the next few days.
The main reason I wanted to post this stuff is to let remind everyone between Brownsville and Tampa that now is the time to act. Most of us already have half of our stuff in place (first aid kits, flashlights, etc.). The rest will be disappearing from the shelves little by little until the lines become unbearable. Since you're more aware than the average bear (obvious because you're reading this forum), be smart and go take care of stuff now so you'll only have a few things to deal with mid-week - topping off your gas tank, replenishing ice. Only having to wait in 1 or 2 lines beats the snot out of having to wait in 5!
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:38 PM |
Re: Isidore looking classic now...
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Thanks so much for the links Steve..... they are great.
Regards
BD
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:38 PM |
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Re: Preparations done at my house...
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Steve,
Excellent point..never hurts to have all that stuff in house anyway....btw are you covering all the windows in your home?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:39 PM |
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Re: Preparations done at my house...
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l might have to change my long term forcast from 4 days back on my near Tampico thing. It might be a dramatic change. I saw something on sat pics yesterday and is becoming more apperent. Lets just say New Orleans to Tampa watch this, but of course all the way down to the BOC.
New data coming in.....very,very strong shortwave trough coming down to reinforce the southern trough early next week to mid week. If this does happen to what is shown. Expect Isadore to move very close to ifnot into the Yucitan, BUT then head back N to then NE into maybe even the SE gulf and NE to Cedar Key by Thurs?? All just speculation.
New ETA is out now that goes out 60 hours, shows what Im seeing, WSW then NE off NE part of Yucitan (never bringing it more then 88W) and back moving NNE near to where it is now about 23N and 86W. That would be scary for florida,, but hey folks its just 1 model and solution. Lets see more models, continued verified runs 12-24,36 hours later and the digging of the trough early next week. In the mean time, lets see if he does make landfall onthe NE tip of the Yucitan. scottsvb hurricaneupatecenter
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:43 PM |
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Bad Reporting by Media
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Interesting story from China. Evidently a new law there says that if you wrongly report information about the hurricane to up ratings you will be fined...not sure all the specifics about the story but heard about on the local news down here. Interesting tid bit of fact from another part of the world that deals with storms.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:44 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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if it hits u/p and stays ther good by izzy
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:56 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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Steve, you forgot to mention an axe. You say attic, I think axe.
Neurotic? Maybe....
I've had the bejeesus scared out of me a few times with storms.
Stay safe!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 04:58 PM |
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Re: Preparations done at my house...
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Scott: I was a lot happier when you were sticking with Tampico! The Cedar Key scenario is a mess. I hope that one flits away. I can only envision massive flooding from St Pete north on a situation like that.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:00 PM |
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Re: Scottsvb
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I also saw that shortwave digging down on some of the non-tropical models. It concerns me, but I'm not biting on until I see consistency. Ever since Tuesday and Wednesday I have been extremely bullish on a Florida landfall from Pensicola to Cedar Key. If the models are more consistent in the strength of this shortwave and if actual data back the models up, I may just have to say Pensicola to Tampa threat in a couple of days.
Keep watching as the forecasting process with Isidore is being smoothed out.
Kevin
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:26 PM |
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subject of boarding up....
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I live on the beach in Biloxi... I have six - 3 foot X 6 foot windows in the front of my house on the first floor and four - 3 foot by 5 foot windows on the second floor, all facing the beach.... this does not include another 8 windows that do not face the gulf. so when I board up it takes quite a while... I only board up the beach windows, unless its a Cat 4 then I board up everything including all exterior doors but one...
as a rule of thumb I never board up my house if I'm sure the system will hit east of me... say from AL/FL line.... experience has taught me it is not necessary because I am so sheltered from any winds from the north...
and people who put tape on windows are wasting their time and money... I've seen taped windows blow out.... my advise... board em up....
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:27 PM |
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WIndows...
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No. This is my uncle's house so I'm only boarding up my saferoom.
Cat - Yeah, I was supposed to buy an axe or hatchett at Home Depot today but I forgot. I'll pick one up from Ace on Tuesday if there is a more likely threat.
-------------------------------------------------
Comments on the WSW/W movement. Isidore has moved 1.5 degrees west the last 12 hours putting her near 86.1 as of 11am EDT. Something all of us North Gulf Coasters are going to have to watch is how far west and how far north Isidore is at 72 hours. I'm much more worried about a WNW solution rather than a westerly one near term. When the eventual parabolic curve takes place, it's best for my area that Isidore is much further south. That increases the threat to points east of the AL/FL line. If she's up around 26 or 27, look out LA/MS. Also, a WNW track after 24-48 hours is far more disturbing to SE LA, Coastal MS residents. Having said that, I'm very comfortable with NHC's 92.5 option at 72 hours. They've done a good job so with their Isidore tracks and deserve credit for them so far. The only way Isidore doesn't get to 92.5 west is if the southerly component of the current track is not just temporary. Since the shortest distance between 2 points is a straight line, any deviation away from due west will lessen the liklihood that he actually makes it to 92.5. However, the 12 UTC tropical tracks bring him as far west as:
BAMD - 96.2
BAMM - 96.3
A98E - 93.9
LBAR - 92.0
The SHIP and DSHIP intensity models of 125 knots at 72 hours is pretty disturbing. If I remember my coversion table right, that's a solid 140mph Cat 4 storm.
Steve
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:30 PM |
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Re: subject of boarding up....
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Im still not changing my forcast yet,, I just want to make aware things could change. I still have a near tampico thing, but if it makes landfall just north of there who knows.
scottsvb
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:32 PM |
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Re: scottsvb's Comments
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Oh no....I can already hear Shawn clicking on his keyboard all the way across the GOM after scottsvb's comments putting a threat back in the FL forecast
NO wishcasting here!
Lou
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:34 PM |
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scott...
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I agree. If Isidore was to have a North Mexican or south Texas landfall - UKmet's solution I think there are 3 possibilities. 1) Continues to head W into TX/MX (least likely IMHO); 2) comes up north ahead of the next shortwave after the one you mentioned and gives Eastern TX all the rain they can handle (second least likely); 3) re-emerges out in the Gulf and heads off to the FL Panhandle at a pretty quick speed as probably a Cat-1.
Do you see any other logical possibilites in the event of a North Mex/South TX landfall?
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:40 PM |
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Here are the latest model plots I can find.
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/10Ltrpmdl.html
I think the LBAR solution is very disheartening. I'm not buying it, but that's exactly where I wouldn't want to see Isidore in 72 hours. A98E (surprisingly since that model does funny things) seems to make the most sense right now for the next 72 hours.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:45 PM |
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One last note for now before the 1pm update comes out...
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While looking at the HIstorical Tracks at Weather Underground - those Cat 3's, 4's and 5's that passed within 300 miles of Isidore's center in September - it's evident that Isidore doesn't share a consistent track with any of the other storms. Most of them went into Florida or Texas. Isidore will be carving her own trail for future historical tracks.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:45 PM |
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Re: scottsvb's Comments
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Well I agree with Scotts post. I belive it will drift to just north of Yucatan then a strong shortwave next week will pick this up take it first north to 25n/89w then turn more to NE and increase a bit in foward speed making landfall in Big Bend. New 12z AVN still looks to far west although takes it north up texas coast and then east. Do think it may weaken slightly pending how close it gets to Yucantan, don't think it will make landfall though.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 05:46 PM |
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Re: scottsvb's Comments
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Sorry I created last post.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:06 PM |
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NOT MOVING
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IMHO, this Hurricane has weak steering currents..is finished going south...and is now stalled...
CAT 4 next....will be a beautiful sight...
think it will stay generally on a NW drift now....for the next 72 hours...could do JUST ABOUT ANYTHING>>>>>>>>
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:12 PM |
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nhc 1pm
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looks like izzy is quasi stationary again, but expected to continue drifting west. intensity now estimated at 105kt/948mb. the descriptive line mentioned that the storm could become a category four later today. well, recon will be there to give us the scoop pretty soon.
HF 1805z21september
| Mike |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:16 PM |
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Re: Preparations done at my house...
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Scott; I respect your opinions,a little cocky sometimes
, but provide good insight. Your statemment just made me nervous.
All others; A quote from a NASA Emergency Manager: "If you fail to plan, then you plan to fail!"
Seems like goods words for all people who border the GOM.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:17 PM |
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Re: NOT MOVING
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948 MB!
Cat 4 tonight?
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:29 PM |
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Re: WIndows...
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Don't want to labor the issue. However, if the storm is a 3 or higher and hits your area I think you might want to follow Frank's idea. Safe rooms are only safe when it has a roof and walls. If the storm is bad enough, any destroyed window or door in the house will allow the pressure of the wind to enter and literally lift the roof off. In large storms you must protect the entire envelope of the house. That is how most homes in Miami were destroyed during Andrew...most folks boarded up portions of their homes or none at all. Hopefully I am speaking to the choir.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:32 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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IN ADDITION...THE FLIGHT CREW REPORTED A SECOND BUT MUCH SMALLER EYE
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY EYE. THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY A
STRONG MESOVORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH AN EYEWALL SUPERCELL THAT HAS
PERISTED IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS.
What does this mean??? Also with it not moving are we gonna start seeing a more northern tract?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:38 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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Recon says 947MB. They also said the eye is open on the NW. Doe's this go with what andy1tom said?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:51 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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These can really be an amazing sight. Its the equivalent of having an F5 tornado within the CDO or the eyewall itself. Sometimes they are completely clear at the top - its like having a pinpoint eye within the eyewall structure. I can't recall one ever lasting for two hours though - unreal!
ED
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 06:57 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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Isidore is growing into a monster. Latest pressure 947mb! And an eye like area locatd within eyewall. Never heard of it. I think this won't have much trouble getting to cat 4 strength tonight. Now the plot becomes unclear as to where to place track. With Isidore stalled forecast track will likely need to be rejusted at least time wise and possibly track wise.
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:00 PM |
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stalling
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Could this be the turn to the north?
Southern
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:00 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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In reply to:If this becomes visible via satelite or if you come across a photo, I would hope you could provide a URL so we can see what you are talking about.
These can really be an amazing sight.
Your verbal description suggests Izzy is even scarier than ever. One thing I remember about Camille was all of the tornados that went over, near or through the area I was huddled up in. The next morning, it was obvious where damage was tornadic and which was 'just' hurricane. All night, we could hear them...sounded different than the wind from the storm....
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:02 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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MESOVORTEX-A medium-size whirlwind on the scale of a few miles. It is thus smaller than a hurricane but larger than a tornado. Mesovortices may form in the eyewall of a hurricane, and may cause significant damage at ground level. Question: During Andrew is this what could of happened or did Andrew just spawn tornados
Thanks
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:06 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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I hope the hunter is equiped for a photo or two. I've only heard of a mesovortex. I would love to see a picture of one.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:10 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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That is what happened to Andrew now that you mention it. I remember watcing something on that. It causes catastrophic damage. As the damage would be worse scattered about where there were mesovortices.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:13 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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anyone, any chance storm gets picked up by trough and heads back ENE into Keys or South Florida???
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:22 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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Janine, Andrew had mesovortexes. So yes, it's very similar to that.
Isidore is turning out to be quite fascinating to watch. I'm hoping that it'll weaken before it makes landfall, wherever that may be.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:24 PM |
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Re: Mesovortex
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utterly weird. thought the eye feature bobbing up and down on satelite looked strange.. guess this explains some of it. think this explains the stall also and until it is worked out the westward motion will be jiggy and erratic.
pretty much everybody but ukmet now has recurvature. 12z runs are coming out and nogaps has already gone back to bending the system sw for a while at least. looked at the hpc/ncep plots and got a strange show.. on it izzy moves to within maybe 150 miles of brownsville on friday morning, but by saturday is well ene of there, about 100 miles off the louisiana coast. dont think that one will hold water, but seeing the sharper recurvature sort of worried me.
go take a look at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fcsttxt.html
noted that the storm is further intensified on most models. safe to assume we will be dealing with a cat 4 shortly.
what to do with kyle.. some models turn it west in a couple of days, some just leave it floundering like a bug on a pin. on satelite it looks like the surface and upper centers are decoupled.. have to see if it realigns or what. the disagreement by different height centers on what kyle wants to do tells me at least that it is changing direction, that it's done going north for now. the earlier westward models have backed off for now, though.
92L and the system around the bahamas are pure mysteries at this point. 92L obviously isnt developing as fast as guidance wants it to, and seems to be staying well to the south. i dont picture the strong system in the northern islands, but the weak, west moving one in the southern islands. the complex upper system east of florida.. several places low level systems could form around here, and probably more than one will try. hard to say which will be the victor out of this.. but the southern system avn first advertised and other models have caught on to.. is becoming more credible.
back when gustav was passing hatteras on september 10th, i figured that the active span was done.. but here we are on the 21st and were up to k, with probably one or two more on the way. the old 12-8-4 prediction from november is now threatened, just as the official ones have already gone down. those ludicrous high guesscasts some of you made last fall that i inwardly scoffed at are now within reach.. have to wonder. K storm on september 21st.. last time we paced this high was 1995. actually reached K on august 27th that year, but were still on M at this date.
HF 1918z21september
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:27 PM |
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Re: The Spider is squished again
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Hmmm, looks like the models are bringing our friend, the squished spider back in the longer range. Starting to get a lot of divergence. Making things more interested then I had thought it would this weekend.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:27 PM |
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Ed Dunham
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Just wanted to make folks aware of Ed Dunham's post over in the Storm Forum. Click here to get to it
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:32 PM |
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13L
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92L will be upgraded to a depression at 5pm. nrl monterey has changed the name, and this always precedes the upgrade. so, three active systems.
HF 1925z21september
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:32 PM |
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Re: Ed Dunham
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Ok, Now Im getting nervous.
Southern
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:37 PM |
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Re: The Spider is squished again
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I do believe we will have A TD 13 at five. And the forecast is to be at 91 kts and well under 20N 60W.
[url=http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092119]
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:58 PM |
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Re: The Spider is squished again
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Recon reports pressure down to 946 MB. they also said:
MAX FL WIND 109 KT SE QUAD 1743Z. MAX FL TEMP 21C 360/09. EYE WALL 60% CLOSED AND CONTRACTING, STILL OPEN TO THE WEST.
Izzy seems to be taking a deep breath.......
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 07:58 PM |
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Re: 13L
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We could easily be dealing with two landfalling hurricanes in the US within the next 7-10 days. 92L has every opportunity to get into the northern carribbean and develop from there. Don't see really quick intensification for at least 72H. Don't think it gets nearly as far W as izzy. looks like a SE bahamas hispanola deal and then wishcasters from Miami to Virginia Beach take over and duke it out and chew up bandwidth. Maybe i will have fire the webcam back up that I have going on this site.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 08:10 PM |
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FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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21/1745 UTC 21.9N 86.1W 6.0/6.0 ISIDORE
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/BD/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 08:54 PM |
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Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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What Gives? The Weather channel just showed a projected path due west. Are the models all in agreement with this now. I had the volume turned down and if I were a casual watcher I would assume that no one in the US is at risk of a hurricane.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:00 PM |
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Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200210.html
That's the 5 track. That's a more nervous track IMHO. I'm waiting for the 5 discussion to come out but I gotta bring the kids to church.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:06 PM |
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Here's something to chew on...
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT10/AL1002I.GIF
147mph @ 72 hours? Add that track to the Jaws theme song in the back of your head - da-na. da-na. da-na. da-na...
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:07 PM |
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Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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Isidore growing rapidly. Don't agree with current movement west at 3 believe its more NW at 3. TD#13 forms. Getting active!
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:19 PM |
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Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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I don't believe the NHC is going to change their forecast track until they see Izzy do something more definite. On the other hand, he's moved .1 to the west in 6 hours, and that does'nt change their 11:00 am forecast? They'll just stick with they said earlier until proven wrong, because not only did he not go west, he didn't go north either. I just hope they don't lull someone in the eastern GOM to sleep, and create a bigger problem then they already have.
What I do see is the Gators 21, Tenn. 0. HA! But that game ain't over either..............
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:20 PM |
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Re: FYI - Dvorak 6.0 / 6.0 WOW
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Just got in from working on my house, been remodeling the outside since July.... figures... couple sections only had plywood and house wrap on it... not any more... finished up those sides and were ready to roll now...
just wondering as I have not had time to do any analysis but as I watched the TWC TU just a few minutes I could have sworn that I saw a "HINT" of a NW drift on the vis loop.... any one else catch it or am I imaging things?
be that as it may, I have completed all my basic hurricane preps... batteries, water, radios, food.. I keep a stock of plywood on hand all the time.... my garage is like a mini Home Depot...... bought me a battery operated TV too...
Cat 4 is a serious event... hopefully some kind of atmospheric event will come up to preclude that from happening... I sure in hell hope so
good post on preps... if your home is situated where you don't have a lot of shelter from the wind I highly recommend plywooding all windows and doors that are not steel or solid wood type... as stated earlier, you lose a window in a Cat 4 you lose your house.... My house has been through em all, From Camille to Elena to Georges... still standing, still plywooding, and still praying for this thing not to come here...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:26 PM |
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Hey Joe ... you saw it too
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As I was writing my last post Joe also mention the NW drift in his post.. that makes two of us that saw it...
hmmmmmmm
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:31 PM |
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Re: Hey Joe ... you saw it too
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Yep. Me three.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:26 PM |
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22.1 and 86.3??????
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Using the GOES vis latitude and longitude plotter I have Izzy estimated to be located at 22.1 and 86.3... best guess I might add but definitely a wobble to the NW...
up .2 north and over .1 west since last advisory, if my estimates are correct....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:43 PM |
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NW... I'm positive now
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studing the vis loop for the past 10 minutes confirms what I though I saw earlier... Izzy has been wobbling to the NW... and it might just be a slight deviation from the forecasted track and he'll get back on that west course... but then again maybe not...
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 09:52 PM |
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Re: 22.1 and 86.3??????
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Jog to the NW continued in the 21:15 UTC visible photo.
Recon reports pressure of 945 MB, another drop of one since the 5:00 pm update. Eyewall is 50% open, mostly to the west, prob. reforming. Think jog north is eyewall reforming, or may this Cat4 storm is making his own way with a little push from mid to upper low over Bay of Campeche. I see many hurricane models going up in flames if this continues..
Joe in Jax
Fla 24 Tenn 7
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 10:12 PM |
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Re: 22.1 and 86.3??????
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I agree Joe... last vis loop still shows the northerly component albeit a little more to the wnw in the latest frame... the overall system could be wobbling off somewhere between NW and WNW... gotta keep watching to see if this is a trend or just a slight deviation and it'll get back on the west track...
I have the estimate center based on GOES lat/long finder at approximately 22.16N and 86.40W
Maybe it is the center reforming, regardless it's interesting to watch on the loop... system so powerful right now it will probably will go where it feels like
| Rick |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 10:19 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Isidore.... You have to Wander
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Am I seeing things ... or does the gfdl show something spawning in the Bahamas at T60?
BTW, I guess I'll go on record with my thoughts of a big bend hit as a cat3, maybe cat2. Sorry, I don't have time to get into the whys and wherefores.
Justin is absolutely correct. You have to protect the entire envelope of the house. Also make sure the gable ends are reinforced or trusses fall like dominoes. I put so much cross-bracing up there it, if it ever came off, it would have pulled the house up outta the ground.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 21 2002 11:02 PM |
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West is best
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Well after wobbling a little to the wnw for about an hour or so late this afternoon Issy I think is back on its westerly track based on the last few IR loops that I just viewed...