MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 03:41 PM |
Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
4:30PM Update
Report from Barbados: Barbados Report
Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 47 MPH (41 KT) gusting to 75 MPH (65 KT)
Lili is nearing or at hurricane strength.
Isidore has stopped its southward motion... critical to watch for a northward turn now...
More later.
11:45 AM Update
Tropical Storm Lili has formed according to recon and the nhc... Next advisory will reflect it. Winds 50MPH.
Original Update
Apologies for the short update, but my day job is leaving me little time to analyze.
Isidore has weakened and has lost its main core eye, drifting over the Yucatan. I'm going to differ from most places now and suggest that it will not make the turn north--it may go back over water however. (I have more crow ready if this doesn't happen). However, even with that said, we all still need to watch it. Isidore will do what it wants to. I think this one isn't done with surprises quite yet.
The NHC's track takes it into the open Gulf and strethens it back to hurricane strength. However, not as extreme intensity wise as previous forecast tracks.
What would I go with, even with my own prediction? I wouldn't go with me... go with the NHC... I have more respect for them.
TD#13 looks ok, but moving a bit fast.. As the center is out under from all the convection. I still think we will see lili from it probably in short oder this afternoon (waiting on recon)
Cancun, Mexico Radar
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model Plots from WREL[/url]
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City Weather Audio Broadcast Network - Live Audio from Jim Williams and Barometer Bob , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Ed Dunham and Jason M in our Storm Forum Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 03:55 PM |
|
Re: Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
11:00 am discussion
<<<<ISIDORE WAS MOVING 180/5...BUT RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT MOTION HAS CHANGED TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT...POSSIBLY AS PART
OF A LOOP. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING RIDGING FORECAST BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD BY 72 HR. TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCES COMING IN SPEED. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...CALLING
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72 HR. GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG TROUGHING WEST OF ISIDORE...THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SLOWER...SIMILAR TO BUT
MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION.>>>>
Intensity models are decreasing due to the collipse of the core wall and projections for it to weaken to minimal TS strength prior to getting back over water....... forecasted to 90k in 72 hours
| Mike |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 03:55 PM |
|
Re: Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
Here is the first Vortex message for Lili:
000
URNT12 KNHC 231530
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/1500Z
B. 12 DEG 24 MIN N
59 DEG 27 MIN W
C. NA
D. 50 KT
E. 348 DEG 022 NM
F. 083 DEG 58 KT
G. 344 DEG 038 NM
H. EXTRAP 1004 MB
I. 23 C/ 338 M
J. 25 C/ 360 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF984 0113A CYCLONE OB 06
MAX FL WIND 58 KT N QUAD 1446Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 04:02 PM |
|
|
mmmkay
|
12 named storms. that was my bet on the year.. and i dont think we're done. lili wont get much stronger until it slows to maybe 15mph. it has slowed some this morning.
as for isidore.. i see the drift in the recon fixes. i dont make anything of it. the system ran itself aground due to its own lopsided windfield from land interaction as opposed to normal steering.. now the system is moving erratically as normal steering forces are trying to assert control.
HF 1605z23september
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 04:43 PM |
|
|
For the record...
|
Here's an updated note from Bastardi for all you doubters. He's going along with my thinking. Btw, lots of nervous old ladies at the office today making evacuation plans. I'm taking a vacation to my couch and front porch.
------------------------------------------
I have no changes on Isadore. It will probably come out later tonight about 40 mb higher than it went in( no surprise) and its playing possum. Fact is the the size of the storm is expanding and that is all going to be summoned toward it as it comes north, and it will come north. By possum I mean the storm is weakening at the center, but the structure is every bit as good or better. So I am confident of the forecast for a hit as as strong 2 or 3 in Louisiana probably Thursday. This is what has been said all along, even when it was stronger. Why? because if it had gotten to the western gulf as a cat 4 and stalled, it probably would have upwelled itself back to a 3 anyway. Since it did not do that, it has all that heat and energy still available in a favorable pattern to develop. So the moral is no change.
Steve
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 04:49 PM |
Future Threat From Lili? Any thoughts?
|
Anyone have any thoughts about Lili's possible threat to US?
Some models have her threatening South FL/Keys by late week. And some keep her in the Caribbean.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 04:51 PM |
|
Re: For the record...
|
steve it will come N. But where is the key, it could push farther E to NW florida if it drifts more E and there is no NW motion before the N turn. Never know.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 04:59 PM |
|
Re: Future Threat From Lili? Any thoughts?
|
Justin, Lili should be in the area of western Haiti just like Izzy in 72 hours, but should comeNW from there crossing cuba at some point. Yes, it could definitely threaten south Florida as it could strengthen to 100 knots. However, if the building ridge shows muscle it could also go in the GOM. But need to watch closely since it will be in Haiti/Jamaica area in 3 days. BTW, Looks like Izzy will make the move north. Over land he still looks good but lacking convection. That will come back as he has water on 3 sides. Cheers!! Steve H.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:05 PM |
|
Re: Future Threat From Lili? Any thoughts?
|
Yikes,
I feel like I am in the middle of a shooting range with both storms out there!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:07 PM |
|
|
Re: For the record...
|
At this point, I am very close to switching all my attention to Lili. I am not sure that Isidore is going to survive the Yucatan. Unless this predicted motion starts soon, I think Izzy could dissapate to an open wave in 24 hours. Even if Izzy does escape. I suspect minimal TS or TD when he gets back into the water. depending on timing, I'm not sure he will be able to spin up very rapidly. I'm thinking more of a Cat 1 on landfall if he survives.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:20 PM |
|
Re: Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
Anyone else watching that area of disturbed weather just south of southwest Cuba? It almost looks like it is developing its own convection (as opposed to the general convection of Izzy) in the southeast quadrant...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:35 PM |
|
Re: S or west Cuba
|
There were some posts in here last week that said some models showed a development so fo Cuba--in fact, I think a Tallahassee AFD mentioned that Sunday. But, that was dismissed due to the strength if Isadore. So, now that Isadore is not so strong, hmm, all bets off> ??Looking at Cancun Radar this am btw, I saw a hook echo NNW of Progresso--somebody musta been getting a waterpout out over the Guld, or is was a mesocyclone..very distinct. This was about 7:30 this morning.
Tallahassee also was speculating on a fujiwahara..time will tell.
Interesting thought---what if Lilly runs into Isadore's outlfow, or a new storm.
I have never seen the tropics look this messy and still have trhee storms going!
BTW---not to pat self on back...but, my forecast in August was for an extremely busy mid/late September uptick, and overall busier later season...with 12-14 storms
. looks like I might have been a bit low.
The 1984 analogy still holds up in many ways too, I think (that was postulated in June).
IHS,
Bill
IHS,
Bill
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:38 PM |
|
Re: For the record...
|
Looking at both the Vis and IR loops I am having a hard time detecting motion... if anything Izzy might have wobbled off to the N or NNE in the last frame or two... but I am not sure at all... probably still stationary...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:40 PM |
|
Re: For the record...
|
The last few frames seem to show that the storm has finally begun to drift northward. We'll see on the next advisory.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 05:42 PM |
|
Re: S or west Cuba
|
Bill,
Do you have a link to the Tallahassee discussion on the fujiwhara? Would make for interesting reading!
Thx,
Clyde
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:04 PM |
|
|
|
too much for the models?
|
Something occured to me, and looking at some of the 6Z runs of the GFDL, it kind of fuels my curiosity.... Is there too much tropical activity for the models to handle right now? Just an observation of the conflicting runs of the 6Z GFDL runs for Isisdore and Lili. Isidore's GFDLTakes Isidore into La in 72 hours as a cat 1 and into Canada by 120. Lili, on the Isidore run, ends up as an open wave in the western Carib. Now in the 6Z run for Lili, at 84 hours, Izzy makes landfall as a cat 1 on the la/TX border. Hurricane Lili is over Western Cuba. Then it really gets interesting, Lili's run leaves Izzy Meandering about the La/Tx border through 120 hours and has a cat2/3 hurricane very near the SW Florida coast at 120 hours. Two runs of the same models with slightly different focuses and two tottaly different outcomes. I'm not even going to throw kyle into this. Of course, this is just looking at the GFDL becuase it offers us a specific focus. I just wonder how much trouble the other models have with the interaction of all the activity.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:04 PM |
|
Re: For the record...
|
NHC 2:00 discussion says it should move North in next 12 to 24 hours. This is a departure in the NW thinking and track and could result in an eastward shift of a hundred or two hundred miles. Wait and see if it even survives.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:21 PM |
|
Re: For the record...
|
Actually the 1:00 pm CDT advisory states the following... unless you have another nhc statement that contradicts this one.... and I guess any thing and every thing is possible with this storm
<<<A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.>>>
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:34 PM |
|
|
|
add another mark
|
while all of the forecasting chaos has been going on close to home, that little system behind lili has started showing signs of organization. one piece split off and went northwest, the rest is following the itcz.. it was the northwest piece that was written off due to shear, but it is actually holding down a convective mass and appears to have banded low level clouds feeding into it. there hasnt been an invest put on it, but a couple of models i summarily discounted foresaw this feature riding nw, and curving east under the deep trough in the eastern atlantic. theres still a lot of shear up there and waters near 18/37.. close to its location.. are marginal. but there it is, holding down convection all the same. the wave that came off to its southeast by the way is looking healthy convection-wise.
closer in, more models taking kyle further south and west now. cmc run even has it to 25/60. note that kyle isnt moving much.. it would have to deepen to really get caught in the NE flow. then again its appearance has been improving since it reached the top of its loop last night and was getting sheared as it dissociated from the upper trough that was letting go. kyle is out in fish country, but if some models are to be believe then it could be pretty close to bermuda in a few days.
lili... more intense on the 2pm mini advisory.. but i can see the llc racing ahead again. note how far to the south it is entering the caribbean.. it's going into the 'hurricane graveyard'. im not ready to buy the more zealous forecasts on this storm just yet. it's still trying to race and in a historically bad place for hurricanes. until it slows down i wont be fully convinced of its threat.
swirl off nc has some convection forming on the west flank. water temps are supposed to be at support threshhold as far up the coast as south jersey, so this could become a good coastal rainstorm before it reaches southeast new england. further south there is talk of a siamese twin to isidore forming near cuba/bahamas. nothing overtly suggestive at this point, but still the nagging feeling that models are on to something, if not the details about that something.
isidore.. the big story still. my ideas still follow that it will re-enter the gulf and head nw, then north.. but nhc getting less and less sure about the future west movement. coincidentally, storm hasnt crossed 90w. wouldnt it be hilarious if it never does.. after my concession the other day? ah well, i'll join the 'general warning' crowd and say 'all interests from texas to florida should monitor the progress of this system'. isnt that dull?
i slid to option three.. se louisiana to ms/al coast this morning. staying there for now. cat 3 intensity sounds good to me.
HF 1837z23september
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:37 PM |
|
Re: S or west Cuba
|
Unfortunately, the Tallahassee discussion was yesterday afternoon on IWIN , and it isn't retrievable now unless you can find it somewhere else.
I noticed that MIA (I think it was) in one of the AFDs today had the same question I did about Lilly running into Isadore's outflow and getting shredded.
I too think the models may be getting messed up by too much tropical activity.
IHS,
Bill
| Mike |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 06:56 PM |
|
Re: S or west Cuba
|
This is what the NWS in Melbourne is thinking today:
EXTENDED...TS LILI NEXT SYSTEM THAT BEARS WATCHING WITH FORECAST
CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF HISPANOLA AND RECURVATURE NORTH EXPECTED AS
REMNANTS OF ISIDORE LIFT NORTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST WOULD EXPECT SOME
TURNING NORTH OF LILI AT SOME POINT. IN SUMMARY EXTENDED FCST
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. DUE TO BOTH INDIRECT AND POSSIBLE DIRECT
INFLUENCES OF ACTIVITY IN TROPICS.
I think Lili future depends on when Izzy lifts out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:09 PM |
|
Lilly?
|
Hey HF-
Where do you see the center racing ahead of the convection? I have looked at the loops over and over in close up and slow mo, don't see this. My surmise is the center is under the convection...or...unless it is a very small vortex...Lilly is just a very vigourous wave. I don't see much turning there. Whats up?
IHS,
Bill
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:24 PM |
|
Lily and Izzy
|
I'm pretty sure you don't need to take my word for it, Isidore looks bad right now. He is very, very crippled. He's cut-off from his moisture source, but I only expect that to last for 12 more hours, at the very most. Isidore will re-strengthen quite a bit in the GOMEX, and this is why: the low central pressure. When is the last time you saw a 60-MPh tropical storm with a 964 mb central pressure. Not too often. Also, Isidore may just go due N instead of NW. Looks like he could also turn more NE because he weaker. If he doesn't intensify back to a category 2 or more in 36 hours, this one's a Florida storm again.
I'm more concerned about Lili, but in a cautious manner. She looks to be very well organized with plenty of deep convection. Some argue that she may a very vigorous tropical wave, but her convection is hiding the circulation. This storm has had a habit of doing this. I'm concerned about Florida in the longer-term. There should be a northward curve with Lili at some point. When this does occur she should be very near a latitude someplace in Florida, so we could see an 90-100 knot storm effect our weather eventually.
Two storms to watch...goody. And yes, Lili may well mimic what Isidore does because the same trough could effect the two storms. Definitely have to keep a watch in the tropics.
Kevin
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:32 PM |
|
|
Agree 100% Kevin
|
Isidore still has good structure and that very low pressure will be in play once he hits water. (Could be about 980mb by that time)
Also, remember how Opal went from CAT 1 to 150mph in 12 hours time. Camille went from a TS to a CAT 5 in 2 days time! People need to take this baby as seriously as ever!
SirCane~
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:33 PM |
|
Isidore, moving slightly
|
towards the east,,may be a cycloid (loop), also note some convection blowing up just to e and ne of center...stay tuned....
IHS,
Bill
| Skeeter |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:35 PM |
Re: add another mark
|
I am with you, there is so much going on that I find anything hard to believe and almost everything possible at this point. I went to GOES Interactive and looked at global water vapor mosaic and global satellite IR and I just don't see anything that is influencing IZZY to move nnw or due north, it looks to me like nne or ne is going to be the move if at all. That sure is a big wad of convection moving in to South Central Cuba isn't it.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 07:57 PM |
|
Respectfully disagree
|
From what I've just seen I detected a HINT of a minor NNW movement based on where I think the center of the system is.... at first I thought it also wobbled off to the northeast, but after further study I think the ne movement is not at the true center of the storm... could be wrong, and it won't be the first time... problem is finding the true center... like finding a needle in a hay stack....
I'd bet its moving NNW if its moving at all....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:01 PM |
|
starting to move?
|
I see it too...interesting, Steve Lyons thinks it is heading north...pointed right to central gulf coast...as landfalling hurricane...
stay tuned...batten down hatches....after izzy, then lilly...
then insanie....
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:02 PM |
|
On the Lighter side
|
Found these hurricane cartoons to lighten up your day. Some are cute and some are corny.
web page
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:08 PM |
|
Re: starting to move?
|
Definitely moving north now. Still appears to have a very good structure. As was pointed out earlier, with the pressure remaining so low, when Izzy reaches open waters, he will bomb again. Joe B still says Cat 3 north central gulf. I see no reason to disagree.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:10 PM |
|
|
|
My favorite one...
|
Was the Nightmare. That was worth wading through all the corny ones.
N.O. update - fast moving low clouds heading SW have been replaced by a phenominal afternoon. Cirrus are moving ESE now. It's a sunshiny day with a nice 10-15 breeze blowing (can't tell which direction downtown because of the buildings. It feels about 85 and low humidity. I gotta guess a front has passed through or something. Looking to the South, there are thicker, mid-level clouds. Don't know what it all means, but that's the report.
Steve
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:14 PM |
|
Re: My favorite one...
|
Isidore possibly showing "slow" movement north. Lili looking better and better.
GO BUCS!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:17 PM |
|
Pressures
|
Pressure falling in the central gulf at bouy 42001. Down to near lowst point in last couple of days. Also, the wind is as stron as it has been in the last couple of days. System is starting its trek north. I seem to remeber that some systems start to intensify even before the reemerge. Could this be happening with Izzy. He looks better now than he did earlier in the day.
| canman32 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:21 PM |
|
Re: My favorite one...
|
Been at the beaches around Destin all day today and its amazing the boats that are being brought inland. We have a toll bridge leaving the beaches and going inland, there must have been 50 boats/yachts leaving the beaches this morning.
I even noticed the Marinas were taking all the boats out of the water. Maybe they know something we dont?
Hopefully noone will think its over, as Yogi said "it aint over till its over!!"
I still believe Izzy will be a major hurricane for someone.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:27 PM |
|
|
|
Off topic, but...
|
I have to do MNF predictions. Rams vs. Bucs (yeah baby!).
Should be very tight game, as these always are:
Bucs 27
Rams 24
There we go. Also noticed Panthers are 3-0. What going on up there?
Be interesting to see 5:00 PM advisory on Isidore, or even more interesting, Lili.
Kevin
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:55 PM |
|
|
2 STORMS
|
Izzy drifting NE, looks like La. or east now. Circulation still looks very good and it shouldn't take much to intensify once over water. 3 days or so to impact. Lili just caused a wind gust to 75 mph on Barbados. Movement will be WNW toward Hispaniola. Should be a hurricane by then.
MNF- Rams 31 Bucs 17 No offense
Dolphins #1 team in Florida 3-0
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:58 PM |
|
Re: Future Threat From Lili? Any thoughts?
|
Hey all.
Good to see you are all still alive and not in any insane asylums yet from watching this nutty "Izzy" guy. I read on a previous post someone was looking for the co' ords for the storm Izzy. Well I found a pretty cool interactive tracking map on this site http://b.orlandoweather.com/hurricanes/1671649/detail.html
Or just go to www.orlandoweather.com and look for there interactive hurricane tracking map. They have an interesting article on Izzy and the other active storms in the Atlantic.
Thanks for all the great posts folks......
take care
Regards
BD
| Gofins13 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 08:58 PM |
|
Re: Off topic, but...
|
Dr. Steve said Izzy is drifting N.E.!! But a more turn to the north later--What does this mean??(hum ho)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:01 PM |
|
west
|
lastfew frames show a west movement again. Why would the trough coming in not force Izzy norteast. They still want to turn him northwest toward the end of the forecast period.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:05 PM |
|
Re: west
|
I would like Rick in Mobile to post more i enjoy reading your post's. I enjoy everyones actually. So whats happening Cause i dont have a clue. He in The Panhandle i am starting to worry alittle. Hope ya'll could supply alittle more info for me I am a novice at this stuff an i would greatly appreciate it.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:12 PM |
|
Its all premature speculation anyway......
|
North/West/Northeast.......... geesh....... move dangit
Actually after reviewing the latest IR loop my best guess is that the center actually looked like it reformed just off to the northeast of where it was, giving the impression of a NE wobble... then again it might have been a wobble to the NE... hard to say... need a couple more loops to confirm what direction this royal pain in the XXX is really going...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:13 PM |
|
Re: west
|
Going to the game here shortly. My prediction: Bucs 31and the Lambs 17. Another prediction - Izzie will go in just east of LA.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:15 PM |
|
|
|
4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
12Z NOGAPS is further east in LA than it has been since Friday 12Z. Trending eastward over time. I think my original MS landfall may be pretty good from almost a week out, though it was luck and based on my bullseye for 2002.
ISIDORE IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP...AS THE STORM
HAS NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR. THERE IS NO CHANGE
TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING RIDGING
TO THE EAST SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND
IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW
FORECASTING ISIDORE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 72 HR
AND THE GFDL MOVING IT ONSHORE IN ABOUT 60 HR. AS NOTED 6 HR AGO...
THE GFDL IS LIKELY TOO FAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPEEDWISE WITH THE
GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE...AND THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:17 PM |
|
Re: 4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
Steve,
I had the exact paragraph on my clipboard to paste! Looks like, AL,MS, FL panhandle need to keep watching closely.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:25 PM |
|
|
|
Absolutely...
|
Everyone from Houston to Destin/Fort Walton needs to pay attention. Chances are someone's taking a Category 3 hit, and plenty of the rest of us will be seeing TS conditions because Isidore should blowup into a fairly large storm.
In other LA news, Gov. Foster has declared a State of Emergency (whatever that means).
Steve
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:27 PM |
|
Re: Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
isidore is moving slowly to the n.e. lili will become a hurricane soon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:29 PM |
|
Re: Absolutely...
|
I think Foster is making a preemptive strike in order to get federal aid in case some of his sugar cane gets blown down in Iberia Parish.
Saints - Best NFL team in Louisiana 3-0
Mr Jimmy
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:31 PM |
|
|
|
changes (or lack thereof)
|
ahh.. 5pm. isidore came ashore about 24 hours ago. hasnt had enough sightseeing time in the yucatan i guess. when reports start coming in from down there about the flooding this slow mover has caused.. not going to be pretty.
i'm going to call isidore's movement today 'quasi stationary'. it hasnt moved a degree in any direction since this morning and thats still enough for me. every time the storm wobbles somebody claims it to be the new direction, but i'm not buying. think it will drift northwest or north overnight and be back offshore some time tomorrow. hard to say how quickly it will spin back up. the low level cyclonic envelope is massive.. covers the nw caribbean and just about the entire gulf. aloft one notices the rather large anticyclone. some people this morning saying 'izzy's a goner!' gave me a pretty good laugh.. their observations were about as nonsensical as saying andrew was going to weaken to a depression crossing south florida. anyhow.. dont see isidore getting a steady north movement until it is deepening again.. think the nhc track is much too fast. earliest this thing will be up on the northern gulf coast is friday. coincedentally i do think movement will be northeast at the time of landfall... somewhere in the central gulf coast. think the people calling it back to florida need to consider the ridging that has built over there.. the storm would have to wait til the weekend to come back there.. and with lili maybe running up around the same time you dont have a place to put em both. cant have two hurricanes.. thats got my crying buckets for florida. awww...
lili.. bill earlier you asked what i was thinking when i said the center was running ahead again. look at the convective bulge on the southwest side of the storm, notice the low level clouds banded around underneath. that would be the center. the curvature in the high clouds is still NE of there.. lili isnt stacked. thats why ive said it wont really intensify until it slows down, improves its structure.
kyle isnt moving much. it's blazing along at light speed compared to izzy, but still not moving much.
other areas.. nothing imminent. seeing another storm in the next few days wouldnt surprise me though.
marco... polo. polo.. is actually an eastpac name.. would be funny if they put them on same-year name lists.
HF 2131z23september
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:32 PM |
|
|
|
Step 1 - Coastal Flood Watches are out now for LA/MS...
|
The entire MS Coast - Hancock, Harrison and Jackson Counties are now under a flood watch. Most of SE and SC Louisiana are too.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/LIX/
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:33 PM |
|
Re: Absolutely...
|
i think that anyone from maybe central LA over to abot Fort Walton Beach needa watch out maybe strong cat 2 or 3 my guess for landfall is near rick in mobile. seems like a reasonable idea right now.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:34 PM |
|
Re: 4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
Well thanks a lot Steve... "Let me say thing about dat"... as Buddy D. so eloquently puts it. My original forecast was Fl Panhandle (pensacola) but over time I have shifted it more towards the west (hey, if the models can change their minds ever 6 hours, I can change mine once.....) Earlier in the season I stated that NO was due for a big hit this year, so what an opportune time to go with that prediction....
New Orleans it is.... has to .... Saints are 3-0, would you expect otherwise... Oh, and on a final note for Kevin.......... Go Rams.... Bucks will be down by two games to the Saints and Panthers ..... gee are they mathematically eliminated from the playoffs already.... hehe.... just kidding Kevin
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:38 PM |
|
|
|
It's comin' for >>YOU<< Rick!
|
Mobile gets its disproportunate share of storms, which really isn't that fair for the rest of us. You'll be on the east side. Minimum you'll see is TS conditions unless the storm comes in 50 miles west of here.
Funny thing is, I don't have my adrenaline pumping yet and somehow, someway don't feel too scared about a Cat 3 possibly on my doorstep. I don't know, call it a weird feeling probably induced by a desire for a free day off.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 09:59 PM |
|
the fun begins tonight....
|
be back in the water getting his go juice in about 4-8 hours...
Hurricane tonight...late....
cat 2 tomorrow
cat 3 tomorrow night...
cat 4 day later..once nicely out in open water...
heading north...then slightly northeast...I guess I don't have to post where anymore...ha!
sure hope I am not right....just finished mowing the yard...everything looks so green and plush and nice....
pine trees will snap like twigs in a cat 3. they go round and round...get more erratic as the incessant wind blows...and suddenly you hear a loud snap!.....then no more tree where you saw it whipping around....
course, in a cat 5 storm....the oaks and houses do that....
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 10:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
I'm still going with central-eastern GOMEX for a landfall. Isidore may actually carve right along the ridge...that would bring him in just west of Pensacola. Still sticking with my predictions.
For all folks in Central Florida, we won't see direct impact from Isidore, but some indirect impacts can't be ruled out. Lili may be the real deal for us right now...I can see the ridge breaking down while Lili is south of western/central Cuba with a N turn. Two storms effecting Florida in just a couple of days? Could happen.
Kevin
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 10:05 PM |
|
|
Re: 4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Looking at this latest image, I believe he's taken more of that northern direction the NHC is talking about. Anyone else see that. My eyes are absolutely gone!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 10:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4pm discussion answers last few questions...
|
I see what you are seeing in the slight N or even NE movement, but the bottom line is that the center is "wobbling" around somewhat. It does appear NHC will have to shift the forecast further E with time, heck, even Beven admitted that.
Lili looks like she's breaking the speed limit right now, she'd better slow down or else the "hurricane cops" will give her a ticket. Still looks like a slow-down to 15-18 knots by 36 hours. That would be ideal for intensification. No one ever said she would develop rapidly in this area. If she survives E. Caribbean, we could explosive development. Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and Florida (down the road) need to keep their eyes on this.
Alternative MNF prediction (plan B):
Bucs 752,000
Rams -752,000
Kevin
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 10:25 PM |
|
Re: Its all premature speculation anyway......
|
Geez, doesn't anybody work on Monday's anymore?
After being out in the sun all day, and it was a sweet day here in NE Fla., my eyes can't seem to focus on a NE drift by Izzy, so I'll take everyone's word that he's really doing it. Give the NHC credit, there going to stick by this forecast to the end.
I really kind of feal sorry for the Yucatan; in reality I don't think they got any warning that a Cat3 was going to be a direct hit on them, and then sit for 30-40 hours right on top of them. Wonder what the people were being told before it hit? Hopefully they saw Izzy out there and took it seriously.
OK, here's my guess. Since the whole gulf is under his influence, if, and I've been saying this for days, so I'll repeat myself for my own amusement:
if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if if
he decides to come off the Yucatan, and it needs to be soon, I don't think there will very much NW movement, if any at all.
N, NNE, MAYBE a little NE. Remember, some of us may have even said he won't get past 90W. He's not there yet.
Landfall prediction:NO to Rickinmobile, Weak Cat2 at most.
Lili, first and foremost, is Florida's babe to watch now. We'll be the first to let the rest of you know either where it hits us, or if she decides to go visit Jamaca/Cuba who would just be thrilled to see another hurricane so soon.
Kyle is lost. Will somebody find his mother so he'll go home, please?
Jacksonville Jags: At least we will be the second best team in the state after tonight!
Joe in Jax
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 10:40 PM |
|
Got Lucky Again!
|
Well, it looks like we got lucky again here in Texas. Because of Izzy stalling out over the Yucatan it gave the trough enough time to be able to pick it up and a position east of where it was suppose to. We should be in for some pretty nice days now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:01 PM |
|
All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Go read Joe B.'s 5:00 update on Isidore. For all fans of storms, you should do. He does an analysis of whatt happens with a landfalling storm and how the pressure attempts to stabilize.
Steve
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:01 PM |
|
Re: Isidore Weakens -- Lili Forms
|
look at around 21.2 88.7 going slowly ne
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:08 PM |
|
Re:Meto
|
Huh ????
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Interesting...Isidore is done weakening as far as Bastardi is concerned. Intensity should balloon once he gets over water if he is correct.
Lili has become much more concentrated over the past hour...probably a hurricane early tomorrow. Bastardi also alluded to two things occuring with Lili:
1. Goes into Gulf (oh boy, here we go again)-if I had to elaborate on this I would say Lili would be E. GOMEX problem if she were to get in.
2. Moves very slowly waiting for next trough amplification.
Either one isn't good for Florida. Flooding possible over the next few days then a possible hurricane...a forecaster's hellish nightmare and a storm tracker's dream.
Kevin
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:35 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Interesting stuff...just got the new 18z AVN and it is further east and a touch quicker than before...bringing him in around the mouth of the Mississippi and the LA/MS state line around midnight Thurs AM...and don't be surprised if the track is further shifted east over time...
Boy, my timing was off, but my Ft Walton call is looking pretty good right now...
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:46 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Jason, would you care to give us your thoughts on Lili?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:49 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Hey Jason Its Kyle from Pensacola it looks as though we might get something if this storm decides to ever come off the Yucatan. Im guessing a pretty strong cat 2 now maybe. I think the storm will move north instead of northwest an then maybe alittle ne till it gets to around the area east of New Orleans. What do u all think?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:50 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Thanks alot Kevin. My hope is the GFDL predicts a direct hit here in Jacksonville. Then I know that I'll be safe, because it won't come within 500 miles of me.
Our rain chance here for the 4 days is 60,60,70,and 70%. We are getting pinched between the effects of Izzy, a cold front stalled right above us, and the prospects of Lili coming into the area. Really need to find my raincoat. We are by no means dry up here. Whem I cut my grass yesterday, I was surprised how much moisture was in the ground. Anything above 10 inches of rain over the next week would be a small disaster in itself, the ground is that wet already.
Joe in Jax
Pres. Bush Axis of evil: Iraq, LBAR, GFDL
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:51 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
If you believe in the GFDL, it's gonna be another GOM storm...I want to wait a bit before I make a call on Lili, get some of that GOOOOOD Gulfstream IV data into the models to firm them up, and to get Lili to slow down a bit....if she misses the trof, it's gonna be hard to keep her away from FL/the GOM.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:52 PM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Don't be surprised if the track of Izzy moves East (significantly) over the next 36 hrs...
NO, right now, is as far west as I'd be willing to put this storm, until I see a definatlive NW motion....which ain't happening right now.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:53 PM |
|
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
UH OH !! Well, I said my DH (Dear Hubby or Dumb Hubby..... just depends)
would board up the place when Jason Kelley said to, so he's on his way to Home Depot to buy plywood. Now what I want JK to tell me, is how strong is Izzy going to be when he gets here ??? Best guess ?
| ShawnS |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 23 2002 11:57 PM |
|
Izzy
|
I'm starting to think Izzy is going to just die out before it ever gets off of the Yucatan. The winds are now down to 45mph and it is still stationary.But you all keep watching the models jump further and further east while Izzy continues to sit on the Yucatan and die.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:00 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Tough call, although thanks for the confidence in my forecast...wish you'd tell my bosses that!!
Intensity is gonna be a tough call, but I think Izzy will be a hurricane again with 24 hrs of the center getting back over the Gulf (assuming it does so in the next 18-24 hrs, which I think it will)...the forward speed component is a strong variable in this, and it is all over the place in the model solutions...
My best guess? Solid cat 2...maybe a cat 3...but more likely a 2,...100 mph winds.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:06 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
The next question should be....when will Hurricane Watches/Warnings be posted for the Gulf Coast? Anyone with thoughts?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:08 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
what is the chance it just dies over the yucatan?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:10 AM |
|
Re: Izzy
|
I think models are basically useless on a stationary storm... for that fact, maybe models are useless period... they certainly have been relative to forecasting this storm as no models forecast 72 hours out have even come close to being right.....18Z GFLD has Izzy going inland just west of NO at ~92W in 60 hours.... I don't know how many times the MS coast has been forecasted to get Izzy from various models, at least 3 or 4 over the past several days... as has several other locations... models are really starting to piss me off...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:11 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
If the track hold (or shifts east) with no change in forward speed, I 'd say watches go up at the 11 PM adv tomorrow night, and warnings the next morning at 11, maybe as late as the 5pm
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:11 AM |
|
|
Lili
|
Chance of the Southern Half of Florida being hit by Lili: 0%
Take a look at the latest GFDL run..puts Lilly right in our backyard at the end of its forecast period which means we are safe.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/02092323
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:12 AM |
|
Re: Izzy
|
I feel your pain, my Golden Eagle brother....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:13 AM |
|
Re: Izzy
|
The last 2 anons were me...I got logged off somehow...
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:14 AM |
|
Re: Izzy
|
Tell those models what you really think of them, Frank!
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
I must agree with all 3 of your last posts Jason. Excellent as always. More thoughts:
1. You're right, the trough misses Lili (probably will) and Florida and the E. GOMEX are going to be staring in the face of another nasty storm by the weekend.
2. Isidore's track could shift east in a major manner, either way some eastward adjusments to the forecast should be made.
3. Isidore won't dissipate given it's low central pressure. It would have to stay over land for another 24 hours...not likely at this point.
Kevin
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:26 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
So, is this rain over Central FL right now an actual outer band from izzy? Looks that way on the IR.
Also how often will a cneter relocate when a storm is over land?
Is there a history or even a few instances where storms to try and relocate their centers over the water when they are close to water but over land like Izzy is now?
btw he isnt that far away form being back ver the Gulf.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:27 AM |
|
Re: All Central Gulf Coasters...
|
Quick update on Lili,obs have winds sustained 40mph with gusts 60+mph. Heres link...Look at Barbados and s south St.Lucia ob.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:29 AM |
|
Hey Jason
|
Thanks for not rubbing it in as Bama was too much for the Eagles...
I was wrong - your football forecasting is as good as your weather forecasting.....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 24 2002 12:32 AM |
|
Re: Hey Jason
|
That, my friend, remains to be seen...
Your Eagles just didn't show up to play, methinks...too many mistakes...we weren't that good, you guys just made a few too many mistakes...we do have a pretty good "D" though...