Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jan 11 2004 05:06 AM |
The Quiet Time Continues
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Nothing to report - just closing out the old News Forum and starting up the new one. Hope that your holidays were great and looking forward to another year of storm tracking in the Atlantic basin.
Forcast for the 2004 season has been posted in the Storm Forum.
Cheers,
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Initial Outlook and Updated Forecast for the 2004 season are posted in the Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jan 18 2004 02:44 PM |
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Re: The Quiet Time Continues
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Quiet now but we are getting ready!
http://www.hurricraft.com/testflight.htm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Feb 01 2004 02:16 PM |
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Look at this!
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Site lost my post==try again!
Think we have crazy tracks!? Look at this:
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh0904.gif
Reminds one of Juan in 85 over La, but 'more so'. Never seen anything like this.
The low just south of APX has looked almost subtropical at times--with upper reflection hanging back, now just s of La.
Only 4 mos to go---or is it 2?
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Feb 01 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: Look at this!
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Hi everyone
now sure what I was looking at when I looked at it
Hope all is ok with everyone.
Wondering with anticipation of what the coming year will hold for us. Early start late finish? Late start early finish? Who is to say. We haven't had a freeze yet here so the temps of the waters are warmer than normal.
Will prove to be interesting.
See you in a couple of months.
JustMe
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Feb 04 2004 12:46 PM |
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Re: The Quiet Time Continues
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Waiting eagerly for the season to start and the questions start to come out.
When will Alex form before june 1 or after june 1?
What Kind of ENSO will be in the equatorial pacific?
Will the coastline of the US see a major hurricane making landfall?
Will the CV season be active as in 2003?
Those are a few of the questions that will be answered in the comming months.And waiting to discuss with all the members here what will happen in the 2004 season.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Feb 04 2004 07:13 PM |
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Re: The Quiet Time Continues
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TSR just issued their February update on the upcoming 2004 season. It's still early, but they are forecasting a well-above average season in respect to numbers and probabilities.
Link here:
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Feb 17 2004 02:55 PM |
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Oh that crazed CPC model...
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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif
Not saying that this doesn't have a shot at verifying, but look at the rapid El Nino development from November to December.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Feb 17 2004 11:56 PM |
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Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...
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Actually the long range trend has been toward an eventual El Nino, but even if it does verify it will happen too late to have any influence on the 2004 season. If it materializes (and sustains for 5 or 6 months) , it could have a dampening effect on the 2005 season.
Recently returned from a QM2 cruise and the SSTs from St Thomas to St Lucia were steady at 26C.
Cheers,
ED
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Feb 19 2004 02:20 AM |
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Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...
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Hey Ed...it's been a while...
I do agree that at some point we will get an El Nino. There usually is a certain stage that the warming will get to that will lead to El Nino development.
26C? That's warm. Actually, most of the Atlantic has seen above normal SSTA's since the end of last hurricane season, with the exception of the air-cooled waters off of the NE US coast.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Feb 23 2004 06:10 PM |
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Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...
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No telling on El Nino. Seems that it's been more La Nina to netural for the last couple of years (at least in the eastern zones). Today's SSTA's look pretty neutal still. As for the Atlantic, it's mostly "slightly warmer than average" except right along the entire East and Gulf Coasts of the CONUS.
I don't have much of a handle on the 2004 season yet. I'd expect it (on a hunch) to differ from 2002-2003. We'll have to check the water temperature profiles in May and also continue to watch where the the trofs are lining up (and how far west they retrograde) We'll have to watch the EastPac for any deviations from neutral and how they play into the peak season (late August - mid October). Many may recall that March-June period is the most statisically difficult period to predict oncoming El Ninos. And we'll have to watch precipitation profiles for the winter and spring in the SE.
Anyway, I'd guess that the season (#'s wise) should be closer to average than the last 2 years, but that's a real stretch right now. Absent a strong El Nino, I'd figure about 12 NS is as good of a place as any to build off of.
Steve
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Mar 09 2004 01:43 PM |
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Re: Oh that crazed CPC model...
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Hello to all and wishing everyone a good winter season. I am beginning to salivate over the coming season and watching to see if El Nino is going to rear its ugly head.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Mar 24 2004 01:52 AM |
Its That Time Again
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Just a note to let you know that I've started the annual forecast ritual in the Storm Forum. Take your own best shot at the numbers for the upcoming season.
Cheers,
ED
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Mar 24 2004 10:11 PM |
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Re: Its That Time Again
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I am eagered for the season to start.I posted my forecast at the storm forum and my numbers are 13/8/3.It will be another interesting and exciting season that all of us will follow and discuss here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 07:12 PM |
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Re: Its That Time Again
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can't wait for the start
seems as though it
has been forever
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 07:20 PM |
Re: The Quiet Time Continues
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Ideas? Explanation? Global warming?
An unprecedented tropical cyclone has developed in the South Atlantic about 300 miles from the coast of Brazil. This looks like a full-blown hurricane on satellite images, and has formed in an area that has never recorded a tropical cyclone.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 08:11 PM |
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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The South Atlantic hurricane has a Dvorak rating of 4.5-it's a hurricane! This is remarkable.
On another note, it has the excellent satellite appearance of a storm that is intensifying fairly quickly. It's headed towards the Brazilian Coast, hopefully they prepare.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 09:23 PM |
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Surprise south atlantic hurricane !!!
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http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/8286042.htm
Even the folks of the NHC are puzzled by this development.It is a first for that area so I hope that in Brazil they are prepared.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 09:45 PM |
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Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane !!!
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Here is a pic link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/8.jpg
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 10:26 PM |
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Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane history made !!!
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
UKMET Is following this unprecedented hurricane and it is a first for that area.It has no name because ever a cane has formed there.But dont expect to be named ALEX because those names are for the north atlantic only.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Mar 26 2004 10:33 PM |
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Re: Surprise south atlantic hurricane history made !!!
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Take a look at this:
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCunknown086_G12.jpg
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Mar 27 2004 12:49 AM |
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Re: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Do you believe it will track into Brazil? Im curious if current model tracking programs used for N. Atlantic storms are even applicable to assist in working out a possible trend in this uncharted territory.
This is really weird.