CFHC
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| Fri Mar 26 2004 10:48 PM |
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First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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At least since the satellite era, there has been no recorded tropical cyclones in the South Atlantic (south of the equator) known, until recently:
Right now it looks like a category 1 storm. This is so unusual the hurricane center nor Brazil is really ready for such an event, but I'm sure they will make do.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Mar 26 2004 10:55 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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I was just about to post about this....crazy huh?!
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Mar 27 2004 12:42 AM |
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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I suppose (if it misses landfall) it will track to the SW, S, and then SE - mirroring the NW, N, NE form of the Northern Hemisphere? Perhaps the Pentagon is correct in having their "severe future climate change" exercise scenarios.
Wow.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Mar 27 2004 01:18 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Yes, the Brits are forecasting a recurvature.....
SC
| Hurric |
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| Sat Mar 27 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Wow, If only someone could get a plane in there. [url=http://www.local6.com/news/2954557/detail.html]Brazil Hurricane News[/url]
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Mar 27 2004 04:01 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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http://www.local6.com/news/2954557/detail.html]Brazil Hurricane News
That is the corrected link, it's a story from last night. Thanks !
Looks pretty healthy this am and is beginning to impinge on the coast.
One 'purist' correction: this is NOT the first known TC in the SA: that was in 1991 (see Landsea's FAQs); it IS the first HURRICANE to be observed .
The Brits had it recurving and weakening (at first) yesterday. Looks like it has moved w-wsw and strengthened.
Somebody is getting a surprise in Brazil--I think the state is Minas Gerais, but, I am not sure.
| HanKFranK |
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| Sat Mar 27 2004 06:36 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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there's something you don't see every day. i'm sure this will provide insight into the study of hurricanes in general. it's late march, the southern hemisphere equivalent of late september.. so the timing is about right. ought to be volumes of research on this thing upcoming.
HF 1836z27march
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Mar 28 2004 08:06 PM |
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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This is not the first this is the third
Take a look at a tropical storm that happen earlier this year
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cycl.../jan2004sat.gif
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Mar 28 2004 10:28 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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The entire link didn't make it. Where on the tropical page did you find this? Thanks
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Mar 29 2004 08:11 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Here is the page from the met offices.
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/
It shows 2 out of the 3 south Atlantic tropical cyclones.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Mar 29 2004 12:21 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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i think we all will this to be an unusal year as last year for storms and hurricanes
| cyclone_head |
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| Mon Mar 29 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Here is a link describing the effects of this rare storm after landfall.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040329/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather&cid=589&ncid=1112
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon Mar 29 2004 06:40 PM |
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"catarina"
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that's what the brazilians have dubbed the storm, after the port city near where it came ashore. i think the jury is probably still out as to exactly how to classify the storm.. on saturday i watched an IR loop and there wasn't much deep convection at all. ssts in the area are a bit low for what we'd look for in the north atlantic (23-25C), though there are plenty of cases where hurricanes made do over cooler water.
not a classical slam dunk hurricane by any means, but i can foresee this storm being used as an example in the future by the enviro types who are convinced the global climate is 'out of control' or something. only response i have is that i don't feel i can stop watching the basin during the off-season, after ana last april and the december duet of odette and peter just recently. pretty convoluted pattern in the western atlantic right now, come to think....
it's about time for gray's early april update. also, nhc didn't retire any names from last year.. had a feeling fabian and isabel might go, surprised that none went. i'd get rid of claudette just on the account that they keep hitting texas.. and no more juans because they always hit land.
back here in.. june? may?
HF 1837z29march
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Mar 31 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Thanks - yes, this does look suspiciously like a previous S.Hemi tropical storm in January. But now I must pose this question; if no one acknowledges that a tropical storm has formed, does it actually exist?
| MoparMitch |
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| Wed Mar 31 2004 05:24 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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If it looks like a Duck, walks like a Duck and quacks like a Duck, then it must be a Duck.
This was a tropical system (according to me) without a doubt. I think any agurements against this opinion can just look at the "video tape".
Actually, I am a little concerned as to what this may indicate for us when the season "officially" starts. Can hardly wait for Dr. Gray's forcast in a few days.
| MoparMitch |
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| Fri Apr 02 2004 06:08 PM |
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Gray's Forcast April 2....
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We may want to rest now, if what Gray is forcasting comes true.
Gray's April Forcast
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Apr 02 2004 06:36 PM |
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Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....
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Thanks Mitch. I just got finished reading the forecast. I went and plotted Gray's Analog Years (1958, 1961, 1980 and 2001). What was suprising about all those years was the high number of western atlantic fish spinners. Now his analogs the last few years didn't have much in common with the tracks themselves, but it's always worth a look. In these years, there were one or two western FL panhandle hits, a couple of south Texas hits, some Central American and Mexican hits and some brushes with the NC Coast. /food for thought
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Mon Apr 05 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: Gray's Forcast April 2....
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Hmmmm. 14/8/3. That's what I predicted back in December. One part of the forecast should put a bit of caution in the minds of Florida and East Coast residents this year:
"Long-term statistics show that, on average, the more active the overall Atlantic basin hurricane season is, the greater the probability of U.S. hurricane landfall. For example, landfall observations during the last 100 years show that a greater number of intense (Saffir-Simpson category 3-4-5) hurricanes strike the Florida and U.S. East Coast during years of (1) increased NTC and (2) above-average North Atlantic SSTA* conditions."
Of course, this doesn't mean the EC will see a hit, but there's a higher probability than usual.
The official start of the season is still a long way away, but it should prove to be a very interesting season if Gray et. al. verify.
| cyclone_head |
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| Wed Apr 07 2004 01:24 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Here is a response to a posting on another weather forum of which I'm a member.......keep in mind this guy is from Brazil I believe and his English isn't that good. He has also included some links. Be cautious...I haven't had time to check out the links yet.
Here is his posting:
Posted: Wed Apr 07, 2004 5:39 am Post subject:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At first sorry about my english!! I´m from Curitiba-Brasil. I would like to say for you, that the "Catarina' (how they called de harricane) was a shame thing that happened in Brasil, not about the nature, but about our governament. They Knew about this and don´t want to tell te population. (sorry about my prepositions - grammar)
At the day 25 and 26 of march they told that the winds could be at 50 km/hr. And just on the saturday they knew and told that was 150 km/hr.
Who is nasa, or some organization expirience in this things to know more then brasilians??!!!///?
I lost a friend, he was a fishing man, with a big boat, it was 6 people there. In his boat "Valio 2" 2 people died. 3 were save e he is lost.
They were in a long distance and when the organization responsable telled then about the catarina and the winds, they tried to get in the coast as soon as possible, but they can not get. the eye get them.
the 2 of died on was scare and hid in the boat and the other one when was jumping in the water got "prendeu-se" in the boat.
3 were safe and my friend is lost, because the inrresponsability of the brasilian governament. Now, he probably died, lost in the atlantic ocean.
The scanning of the brasilian marine "navy" for the lost people in the ocean was so good that our weathers organization!!!!!
this is just a part of the history, there to much [stuff] about the situation
And the news said diferent informations.
if you guys want to know more information there is some sites:
www.defesacivil.rs.gov.br
www.com5dn.mar.mil.br-----------go in salvamar
www.globo.com -------write ciclone or furacao catarina
www.epoca.com.br
www.clicrbs.com.br
www.guianews.com.br
www.estadao.com.br
to search use the words: furacao or ciclone catarina
i am a week searching in the internet all kind of information about.
i telled the case just because we are human, i do not care if you are american ou japonese, we are human.
and the catarina did not kill nobody, who killed was the governament.
more informations write me. e-mail: pedronatale@yahoo.com.br
If you guys did not like what i wrote sorry, but this is the reality, and the brasil politic about weather storms. take care if you are in brasil.
**************************************************************************
Interesting to hear some testimony without political or media influence.
Another note:
The Hurricane Conference is in Orlando this year. My schedule has not allowed me to attend but I have friends that have. If there is anything that is worth sharing I will certainly share. Until then....
"Watch the sky...it tells more of a story than you think..."
"Follow the clouds...."
Rick
| LI Phil |
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| Wed Apr 07 2004 07:28 PM |
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TSR April Forecast
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In case anyone is interested, and wants to compare a forecast with Gray's, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) just issued their April 6th forecast. They are again sticking with earlier predictions that we will see an above average season:
April 2004
| HanKFranK |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 01:57 AM |
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a tad more won't hurt
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gray adds another system. the analog years speak volumes about how much real risk there is--all active seasons with little in the way of u.s. landfalls (minus carla in 1961). that's been the trend of the last decade, so probably nothing new for 2004. lots of stuff to track, and not a lot of trouble from it. perhaps i'm understating the risk, but usually you get closer to the truth that way. will have a deep layer low in the central atlantic southeast of bermuda this weekend, but of course it's april and it shouldn't do anything.
0155z09april
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 03:15 AM |
Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Wow Hurricane, that was a great link. I was glad to see it, because I just happened to look at a whole disk picture the same time the other storm was off SA and wondered why no one was noting it!
Twice in one year...something IS up!
SC
| JustMe |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 03:34 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Can't wait for the season to get here
I think we are going to have a most interesting season if all predections hold true.
I will be watching the season for sure
| JustMe |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 03:36 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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YES thank you I can post again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I missed this a lot....
| Rich B |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Hey guys, i'm back for 2004 and will be posting my thoughts from over here in the UK. What about that SA Hurricane - it certainly was something wasn't it!?! I am still trying to gather as much information as i can about it, and will be preparing an online report over at CycloMax dealing with this storm.
However, the real point of my post is the development to the NE of the Lesser Antilles! Has anyone else noticed this? Apparently the folks at NHC have, as in the latest TWD they talk of some possible development, and a few models hint at this becoming a warm-core low pressure system!! I know its early, but dont forget Ana formed in April last year! Anyone have any thoughts on this?
| HanKFranK |
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| Fri Apr 09 2004 10:02 PM |
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central atlantic
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yeah rich, i do. its april its april its april, that's not supposed to happen. still, i've been watching it too since happening to notice that conspicuous non-frontal low on the models for this weekend, back on late wednesday. checked the visible loop twice today; same hunch. didn't know the nhc discussion had anything, suppose i'll have to go read it. after all the out-of-season systems lately the nhc has its guard up. since we're on a run of oddballs, why not have an easter tropical cyclone?
before reading your post i was going to only mention the sst profile in the eastpac.. cold tongue more pronounced than it has been for a couple of years. ENSO looks to be tilting back that way--expect my 11 system guesscast for 2004 from november will tank worse than any yet, at this point.
HF 2102z09april
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Apr 10 2004 03:54 AM |
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Re: central atlantic
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Yes, agree Richard. This is a very impressive low pressure system developing in the Atlantic. Models have been showing development in this area for the past few days, and tonights pix are showing circulation and some intense t'storm development. Let's see if upper level winds will allow further deepening. The models yesterday showed this low heading to the north between the ridges, but it could hang around a few days (Ana revisited?). Long range models also show the itcz active, with areas of low pressure uner 1008 mb. The eastern Atlantic is warm early this year, and with rising heat lowering the pressures out there, could be an active CV season. That coupled with the neutral ENSO conditions should make for an exciting summer. Cheers!! PS: I could log on with my password, but couldn't post under steve h. What's up with that?? :confused:
| JustMe |
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| Sat Apr 10 2004 04:49 AM |
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Re: central atlantic
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Steve I had the same trouble but they did get mine fixed
going ot be a very interesting year for sure
| Kevin |
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| Sat Apr 10 2004 01:36 PM |
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Warm or cool? Or both?
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I have been WOWED by the warming the Atlantic has seen in the past couple of weeks. We could see some crazy stuff this season if the various other factors are favorable.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.6.2004.gif
Opposite the Atlantic, the cool tongue in the eastern Pacific is persisting. We'll have to watch during the summer....
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Apr 11 2004 08:13 PM |
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Suspect Area?
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Cyclomax UK ( Tropical Cyclone Formation Alerts ) has issued a Tropical Cyclone formation alert for an area of thunderstorms in the central atlantic. Does anyone else see potential for development here, as i can't seem to find anything referencing development from the NHC or NRL.
| Cycloneye |
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| Mon Apr 12 2004 11:10 PM |
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UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
Will this be ALEX or nothing will come out of this area? If it develops it will be history once again for a second year in a row.
| Rich B |
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| Tue Apr 13 2004 10:27 AM |
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Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area
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Hey guys,
models have been hinting at development in this general area for a few days now, so perhaps persistence is the key! Satellite imagery shows the convection remains elongated along the trough axis. NHC think the low will merge with another low to its northwest, perhaps this might give it the kick to develop further. Its only April, but i think this area bears watching still
Regards
| JoshK |
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| Wed Apr 14 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area
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It doesn't look that promising, but hey, who knows?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu Apr 15 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: UKMET shows central atlantic suspect area
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The low pressure area has now degenerated into a surface trough... looks like we are gonna have to wait a little longer for something to happen... but hey, the season begins in a few weeks
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Apr 17 2004 08:08 PM |
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Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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Ir satellite of a area of low pressure at 20 south 25 west.
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404151200AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404151800AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404160000AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404160600AI1_g.jpg
http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/pdus/AI/200404161200AI1_g.jpg
This area of low pressure/possible tropical cyclone moved into dry air in died.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Apr 17 2004 11:55 PM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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The links all require a password to get in to them.....
SC
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Apr 18 2004 01:29 AM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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Yes but you can sign up for free
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Apr 19 2004 03:17 PM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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I filled out the subscription form, but, no e-mail as indicated with a password has been received , fyi.
SC
| MoparMitch |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Apr 19 2004 04:53 PM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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I completed the form and got a password. All is ok, but unless you live in the north atlantic, this is not much use. The only good imagery is of the entire earth, but cannot seem to get specific tropical imagery. If I have missed something, please let me know.
| Rabbit |
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| Mon Apr 19 2004 05:29 PM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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there apparantly were already two South Atlantic tc's before March
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/V910413.gif
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcimages/Misc/jan2004sat.gif
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Apr 20 2004 12:14 AM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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Rabbit:
Right you are - the South Atlantic has been unique in its tropical activity this winter as a 'split' on the ITCZ was forced far to the south in the western south Atlantic. Normally the ITCZ resides exclusively in the northern hemisphere because of the tilt of the earth's axis, i.e., the Trade Winds in the Northern Hemisphere and the Trade Winds in the Southern Hemisphere collide just north of the Equator and form the ITCZ. Why was it quite different this year - I haven't got the slightest idea - but it did! What might it mean for the north Atlantic season? Also no idea - makes me wonder if Cape Verde waves will dive too far south to amount to much. Things can change a lot though in the next couple of months - its that time of year.
Cheers,
ED
| Rabbit |
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| Wed Apr 21 2004 07:34 PM |
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Re: Possible tropical cyclone tryed to form again in the south atlantic?
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it is not in the atlantic, but you all may want to have a look at this
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HPIR.JPG
| LI Phil |
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| Wed Apr 21 2004 09:41 PM |
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Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo
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Rabbit, welcome aboard.
Interesting...however if you look at that image on GOES loop, it's not really that impressive. The folks on this board aren't really concerned with hurricanes that are not in the (North) Atlantic basin, and the only reason the "Hurricane" Catarina in SA was posted because it's such a rare event. If you click on the "Forum" link on the upper left, you'll be taken to a page with different topic choices. You might want to post EastPac news in the "Other Storm Basins" thread.
| Rabbit |
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| Thu Apr 22 2004 12:05 AM |
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Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo
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The reason i put a pacific satellite is because the EPAC has only had storms from May to November. This would be the first in April, like the Atlantic last year. Also, I have been here before under the name BugsBunny, but my password was erased.
| LI Phil |
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| Thu Apr 22 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo
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Bugs/Rabbit...sorry, didn't mean to offend. You're entirely correct that the EASTPAC has never had an April TS. However, in 1992 there was a CAT 3 in January (!) and a TS in late March. Weird year, that one. No other year since 1949 has there been a TS or higher before May. BTW, I think Daffy Duck ate your password
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Apr 22 2004 04:30 PM |
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Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo
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Eureka and Hallie were in Cenpac, not EastPac...plus, what happened to F ang G storms...not sure this info is correct....
SC
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Apr 22 2004 04:46 PM |
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Ekaka and Halli
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Truth is stranger than fiction! Note they also got it wrong on intensity= 100kts is a Cat 3, not Cat 2 as indicated my Honolulu-they probably confused knots and mph.
Here is the info---not sure why they got out of order on names:
January 28 - February 4, 1992 (HURRICANE EKEKA)
Hurricane EKEKA was a rare out of season tropical cyclone that formed close to the Equator in the vicinity of Christmas Island. This was the first central North Pacific hurricane observed during the month of January since the advent of weather satellites in the 1960s.
EKEKA formed within a large area of deep convection close to the Equator that had been observed by satellite for a number of days. Several ship reports as early as January 23 had indicated squalls and strong southwesterly winds just north of the Equator to the south and southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The first advisory on Tropical Depression ONE-C was issued by the CPHC at 280900Z with a position of 04.7N 157.8W within the Line Islands just north of Christmas Island and just east of Fanning Island. ONE-C intensified rapidly and became a Tropical Storm EKEKA (Hawaiian for Edgar). EKEKA was upgraded to a hurricane at 300000Z as it moved slowly west northwest toward the Dateline, staying well south of Johnston Island. Peak intensity was estimated at 100 knots and was reached on February 2 with EKEKA nearing 10N 175W. A large trough in the upper westerlies began to have detrimental effects on the hurricane as it neared the Dateline on February 4. Vertical wind shear caused EKEKA to lose strength rapidly and the system was barely of tropical storm intensity as it crossed into the Western Pacific near 09N 180 at 041800Z and became the responsibility of the JTWC on Guam.
The JTWC downgraded the weakening tropical storm to a depression at 041200Z. The depression continued to move west through the Marshall Islands and did not cause any known problems. EKEKA was put to rest by the JTWC on February 8 when its remnants were near 06N 150E.
1992: Hurricane Ekeka Date/Time
(UTC) Latitude
(N) Longitude
(W) Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage/Notes
01/28/0600 4.5 157.0 30 Tropical Depression
1200 4.8 157.5 30 "
1800 5.2 158.0 35 Tropical Storm
01/29/0000 5.5 158.5 40 "
0600 5.7 159.0 45 "
1200 5.9 160.8 50 "
1800 6.0 162.5 55 "
01/30/0000 6.0 163.5 65 Hurricane Cat. 1
0600 6.1 164.2 65 "
1200 6.1 164.7 70 "
1800 6.2 165.2 75 "
01/31/0000 6.3 166.2 75 "
0600 6.5 167.2 75 "
1200 6.9 168.3 75 "
1800 7.4 169.5 85 Hurricane Cat. 2
02/01/0000 8.1 171.1 90 "
0600 8.4 171.9 90 "
1200 8.8 172.8 90 "
1800 9.0 173.3 90 "
02/02/0000 9.2 173.7 100 "
0600 9.3 174.2 100 "
1200 9.5 174.6 90 "
1800 9.6 175.1 90 "
02/03/0000 9.6 175.7 80 Hurricane Cat. 1
0600 9.7 176.4 50 Tropical Storm
1200 9.5 178.0 40 "
1800 9.4 180.0 40 "
March 28-30, 1992 (TROPICAL STORM HALI)
Warm water on the Equator to the south of the Hawaiian Islands early in the year had the effect of producing some very active deep convection and heavy rains near the Equator from the Dateline eastward to the coast of South America. This is typical El Nino weather during the northern hemisphere autumn and winter months when the otherwise sunny and dry Line Islands get inundated by torrential rains and the pleasant trade winds are replaced by humid westerly winds. These conditions are also conducive for the development of tropical cyclones.
Hurricane EKEKA formed within this area of heavy convection in late January near Christmas Island and moved west northwest toward the Marshall Islands. This very unseasonable tropical cyclone activity repeated itself in late March as Tropical Depression TWO-C developed on the 28th within a cluster of deep convection near 05N 170W. The depression intensified slowly and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm HALI (Hawaiian for Holly) on March 29. HALI peaked at about 45 knots in the area near 07N 175W on the 29th, weakened rapidly, and dissipated on the 30th as strong upper southwesterlies sheared its top off and caused the system to break up.
1992: Tropical Storm Hali Date/Time
(UTC) Latitude
(N) Longitude
(W) Pressure
(mb) Wind Speed
(kt) Stage/Notes
03/28/0600 5.2 172.2 25 Tropical Depression
1200 5.3 172.8 25 "
1800 5.4 173.0 30 "
03/29/0000 5.5 173.2 30 "
0600 5.6 173.5 30 "
1200 5.7 173.8 40 Tropical Storm
1800 5.9 174.0 45 "
03/30/0000 6.3 174.2 45 "
0600 6.5 174.9 35 "
1200 6.7 175.3 30 Tropical Depression
1800 7.0 175.5 25 "
sc
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Apr 22 2004 04:48 PM |
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Re: Ekaka and Halli
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Make that Ekeka and Hali--aloha folks!!
sc
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Apr 22 2004 05:56 PM |
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Re: Rabbit's EASTPAC satellite photo
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Re: f & g storms: CenPac's alphabetical order differs from North Altantic's, presumably because some sounds (e.g., f & g) are not used in many of the Central Pacific languages (e.g., Hawai'in). CenPac's names consist of four lists of names beginning with the letters A, E, H, I, K, L, M, N, O, P, U, and W. According to the NHC's website: "The names are used one after the other. When the bottom of one list is reached, the next name is the top of the next list."
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Apr 22 2004 07:21 PM |
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Re: Ekeka and Hali
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They sure were C-PAC storms, but why then did Unisys (who usually are meticulous in their record keeping) place them on their East Pac list? And I suppose Iniki, also from 1992, would also be considered C-Pac? My bad on the East Pac call, but I figured since Unisys put them on the East Pac list, then they must be East Pac storms. Gotta check those names...that tells the whole story
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Apr 23 2004 07:01 AM |
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NHC fluke or ignorance?
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just checked NHC site, and they've decided not to retire ANY storms from last year. Since when does a hurricane that kills 45 and cuases billions in damage not deserve a retired name?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Apr 23 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: NHC fluke or ignorance?
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I agree Bugs. HanKFranK opined on that very subject several posts ago. Juan in Nova Scotia, Fabian in Bermuda and Isabel-just cause she was a Cat V at one (actually two) point. You had to figure they'd retire at least one of those names. Very surprising.
Here's a link to the NHC site on retired names. It hasn't been updated since 2002, but it's still useful.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Apr 24 2004 06:34 AM |
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Yo
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CONUS drought trend. If you have high-speed, this is the 12 week progression.
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/thumbnails/12_week.gif
If you have low-band, this is Thursday's map:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
Streve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Apr 25 2004 01:12 AM |
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Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??
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I was just browsing for fun and looked in on the Falkland Islands and the British S. Atlantic Territories, of which Tristan De Cunha is one; this is an excerpt from the description of a book about the Island:
"This well-written book, published by Battlebridge Publications, details briefly a concise history of the Island from its discovery in 1506 by the Portuguese navigator, Tristao da Cunha, to its modern day events, including the 21 May 2001 hurricane that devastated the Island. Many black and white photos depict the Tristan of today, its people and life, as well as leisure activities. Newer photos show the damage the 2001 hurricane did to the Island’s infrastructure."
Anybody know anything about THIS "hurricane"???
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Apr 25 2004 01:30 AM |
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Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??
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WOW! Look at this, and see especially the comments about global warming!
NOTE: I did a search in Jeeves for "hurricane and Tristan De Cunha and came up with a mother lode, including a Met Office discussion complete with charts and sat pics. The storm started as a cold low and became tropical, moved towards Brazil...sound familiar???
S.Atlantic : Official Hurricane Report
Submitted by SARTMA.com (Juanita Brock) 17.11.2003 (Current Article)
On 21 May 2001, Tristan suffered a devastating hurricane where every building on the Island, save, St. Joseph's Catholic Church, was damaged.
Photos (c) James Glass
Hurricane hits Tristan da Cunha
Monday 21 May 2001
The Hospital Damage was tragic. A new X-Ray machine can cost as much as £600,000.00
Following is the official report that was written by James Glass, Chief Islander and Acting Administrator of Tristan da Cunha, in order to give readers brief accounts of the damage caused by the Hurricane.
Medical Department
The east gable end of the Hospital fell in, and a quarter of the roofing torn off. The x-ray room and theatre room was totally destroyed and waterlogged. A list of the machines that were damaged and urgently needs replacing will be faxed to you, as they need to catch the vessel departing 7th June from Cape Town otherwise we will only get them in September!!! A patient (boy aged 8) was in hospital at the time.
Large holes were ripped in the roof on the Medical Officer's House, and all the carpets; furniture and clothing were wet.
Administration Department
Ridging on the east and west Gable ends of the Residency were torn off and, dining room etc got wet. A falling tree crushed the Greenhouse. Three longboats that were secured outside of the garden to the east were blown into the Residency garden.
A quarter of the roof on the Governor's house (Bungalow) was torn off, and the house waterlogged.
Administration building one window blown in and floors waterlogged, two computers and one printer down due to water.
Island Store Department
Holes in the asbestos roof of the Island Store (supermarket) caused by flying asbestos sheeting, and the floors flooded, clothing and foodstuff damage. The roof of the Gas Store torn off.
Mechanical Department
Asbestos roof completely ripped off Mechanical Department Workshop.
The Sawmill, in the distance, suffered the loss of roof and equipment.
PWD C & M Department
A few sheets of asbestos roofing came off the PWD General Store, and the building was flooded
Agriculture Department
East Gable end of Agriculture Wood Store fell in and asbestos roofing torn off. The Sawmill was badly damaged. Top of Agriculture Greenhouse and tunnel roof destroyed. 30 cattle dead and the count of sheep are unknown at this time. Roof torn off one of the two slaughterhouses. This is only in the settlement area, the weather has not allowed us to visit the back of the island, or the islands of Nightingale and Inaccessible.
Telecommunications Department
Asbestos ridging and roofing blown off the Radio Station, causing all the radio equipment to get waterlogged. The window was blown in and the satellite phone/equipment sucked out of window. Urgently need a HF radio of approximately 500w, for communications to Cape Town and elsewhere. The 100ft Jaguar mast (of ten iron sections) is leaning to the west, and will have to be cut down.
The radio equipment given to the Island by DFID during the Fisheries Project of 1996, was able to run communications between Cape Town and Tristan, for the 6 days whilst the power was cut of to the village and will continue until we can have another transmitter brought in.
Electrical Department
Electrical wires blown down all through the Village, like tangled fishing lines. No power since Monday 21 May, until today. A temporary power line was run to the Administration Building and the Island Store freezer after three days. A few sheets of asbestos were blown of their main building and floor waterlogged.
Police Department
Roof torn off the shed, which covers the rescue boat.
Natural Resources Department.
One computer waterlogged.
The Community Centre and Pub still are not repaired.
Community Centre and the only Pub destroyed
Asbestos roofing and overhead verandas torn off back and front of the Prince Philip Hall, with other large holes in the roof, the loft in the main hall fell in and the building is waterlogged. I am having a meeting with the council to see what can be done, but I presume that the only option would be to take the roof off completely, because if we have another gale, it may cause damage to the surrounding houses.
Two sheets of asbestos roofing off the back of the Café, and the inside waterlogged.
I am holding a meeting with the Government Heads of the various Departments, and will only know the full extent of the damage to their department then. At this time it is not possible for me to put a figure to the damage but I expect it to exceed at least two years of our revenue.
This is just Government buildings, a number of Islander houses were also damage, asbestos roofing blown off, windows broken, guttering blown off etc, and every house had water in either through their windows or roof. The roofing was torn of the Anglican Church Vestry and the Tower Bell blown down.
The biggest problem on Tristan at the moment is that 90% of the roofing is made of asbestos from South Africa, which gets brittle after time. When a sheet breaks or cracks its has to be replaced, often having to be cut by saw. Bits and pieces of asbestos litter the village and are busy being cleared at the moment. Although this is all the islanders can afford with their average monthly income of £152.43 per month. Not only are it an environmental disaster, but a health hazard as well, but what can we do?
Is there anyway in which the British Government could help the people of Tristan da Cunha to get rid of asbestos, granting a bulk of dipped Aluminium sheeting at a cost the islanders can afford.
There are only just over a hundred houses, each house taking approximately 40 sheets. This I believe could be the first affect of global warming seen at Tristan, with more weather
effects to come in the future.
I am setting up a disaster Fund, to help cover the expenses of roofing, the houses of the less fortunate. If you know any charities that would like to donate any amount, please ask them to contact me. It may also help to advertise for the rebuilding of the Community Centre.
I will come back to you with the total cost of damage, but it could take quite a while.
Kind regards
James Glass
Acting Administrator
Powered by NIC.AC Copyright © 2003-2004 Tristan Times Design by CrownNet
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Apr 25 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: Another S. Atlantic Hurricane??/la nina cometh?
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i'm interested.. will have to go look for this stuff. surprised that the page with the oddball tropical cyclones doesn't have any reference to it.
the link that steve posted is most interesting, in that the drought conditions developing in the southeast fit the bill of anoncoming la nina year. the cool tongue off peru is more pronounced, though the equatorial pacific is still mostly slightly warm in most places. i don't think a large scale la nina like the 1998-2001 events is in the making (therefore don't think a season tightly focused between august and october is on the way). looks like weak-moderate la nina, highly active and respondent to mjo waves. cooler pocket of surface waters in the eastern atlantic may persist.. later development/intensification (closer to the caribbean) may result. however, everything always recurves or weakens before landfall, so have no fear. isabel was just a hiccup.
HF 0411z25april
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Apr 25 2004 03:27 AM |
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tristan de cunha storm
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i looked at the surface charts and thought "doesn't look like a hurricane". then i looked at the satelite shots and said "that's not a hurricane." they may have called it that, but it surely wasn't a tropical cyclone. clearly a middle-latitude cyclone by the satelite pics. but hey, still neat to look at.
HF 0427z25april
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Apr 26 2004 10:23 PM |
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Hurricane season 2004 around the corner
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Time has gone by so fast that hurricane season is around the corner.What it will bring for all who live in the tropical areas of the atlantic basin? Time will tell but it seems to be another active season as the parameters are joining together to provoke an active atlantic basin.I say to all here have a safe season and happy tracking and see you down the road.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Apr 27 2004 03:59 AM |
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hybrids and rejects
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for anybody interested in out-of-season research... found some TC summaries by a guy named gary padgett, and he makes mention of lots of systems that didn't quite receive an official record or get advisories... some of these systems in question you may remember. cross checked them with sat shots at the ncdc archives, even found a few that didn't pique my memory.
if you want to see some stuff the nhc didnt track but may have been worth record, take a look at
www.typhoon2000.ph/archives.htm#gp
and
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser
notable systems include:
3/31-4/3/1998, central atlantic hybrid
10/21-24/1998, bay of campeche gale center (similar to larry)
9/13-17/1999, central atlantic, tropical low/unnamed storm
11/29-12/2/1999, convective gale center near azores
8/4-11/2000, midget subtrop cyclone that became td 4
8/11-14/2000, tropical low/unnamed storm off mid atlantic
8/28-31/2000, unnamed subtropical storm (HPC classified) that moved into NC
9/30-10/4/2000, hybrid low off east coast
4/25-28/2001, central atlantic hybrid
9/4-10/2001, central/NW atlantic hybrid
9/4-5/2002, powerful hybrid in canadian maritimes
10/9-12/2003, hybrid/possible subtrop off mid atlantic
10/14-19/2003, hybrid/possible subtrop in central atl
10/30-11/5/2003, post-nicholas to gulf coast poss. subtrop
12/26-27/2003, eastern atlantic gale ctr
there is another system from further back, at the beginning of october 1994 in the gulf that merits a look.
nhc is reluctant to name questionable systems quite often, as named systems tend to cause immediate economic impacts, whether they come to fruition or not. in none of these cases did a significant rogue storm arise, supporting the nhc policy of not classifying questionable systems. several of these systems occured while a major event was ongoing elsewhere in the tropics and may have received less attention as a result. however, a number of these systems may well have appeared on the official record in post-analysis without creating much of a stir. as the noaa has an ongoing revision and reanalysis project with its hurdat record, i can only wonder if that may still happen.
HF 0458z27april
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue Apr 27 2004 10:46 PM |
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Tropical Cyclone Summaries
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The Monthly Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Summaries prepared by Gary Padgett are just one of many items that are available from the Tropical List Server maintained by Chris Novy at the University of Illinois. The List Server also provides up-to-date distribution of Storm Bulletins, Advisories, Marine Forecasts, Discussions, RECON Reports, etc., and you can subscribe to this free service:
To subscribe to WX-ATLAN send e-mail to LISTSERV@UIUC.EDU and include
the following message:
sub wx-atlan YourFirstName YourLastName
The List Server will respond with additional information on how you can tailor your message traffic to receive only the information that you are interested in, however, the List Server cannot tailor information just to a specific storm, so your email traffic could increase significantly if three or four storms are active at the same time.
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Apr 28 2004 09:36 PM |
http://chat.hexbot.com/ *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Ed Dunham
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Apr 29 2004 01:30 AM |
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Re: http://chat.hexbot.com/
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Take a look at another interesting area in the south Atlantic
http://www.pro-weather.com/forums/index.php?act=Attach&type=post&id=18707
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Apr 29 2004 05:13 PM |
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S.Atl
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Fascinating--wonder why so much activity there, suddenly, this year?
I watch the globals (full disk) pretty much, so, it is not like we are just looking there and seeing stuff that has gone on all along...
sc
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Apr 29 2004 09:06 PM |
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Re: hybrids and rejects
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there was a hybrid early October 1992
go to Goes Browser, start at Sep 30 and go to Oct 3
also, there may be a hybrid system forming at about 33N/34W
http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/satelliteworld/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large.html
its disorganized now, but moving SW over slightly warmer waters
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Apr 29 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: hybrids and rejects
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interesting case for a hybrid. that clump of weather east of florida that gets kicked out to sea is tropical storm earl.. a fairly significant trough set into the eastern u.s. during that time. the gulf disturbance is assuredly close to or associated with a front.. hard to tell how organized it became from those full hemisphere shots.
if anybody knows where an archive of surface charts from yesteryear can be found, by all means give that one up to the crowd.
HF 2331z29april
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun May 02 2004 11:53 PM |
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It looks like la nina developing
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif
Ummm it has been persistant for the past 3 weeks that cool pool in the pacific west of South America but el nino 3-4 are more warmer.Will eventually la nina in a weak stage develop during hurricane season is the question now.Now let's see what the models for ENSO say later this month about their long range forecasts.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon May 03 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: It looks like la nina developing
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Looks like La Nina in the EPAC for now.
I just got back from PCB (shout out to the man, JK) and the Gulf water seemed cold relative to what I'm used to in the last week of April. I've never looked at statistics for average water temperature in NW FL as of those dates, but unless the last few years were warm anomalies, it seemed a lot colder this year. Brrrr. I swam anyway, but not as much as I would have.
What does all this mean for the hurricane season? I don't know. I'm still studying up when I have the chance. Persistently colder SSTA's in the Gulf could put a cap on any activity this year as well as impact individual storm potential.
As for activity on the SA coast, the waters were running warmer than average. It's always suspect that storms will find their way to warm water. Also of note, the NW Atlantic is showing warm pools emerging this year. That's always been a Joe B correlation hypothesis as to western Atlantic activity. Speaking of Joe B., I'm going to have to re-up my subscription for 6 months with the season only 29 days away.
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 05 2004 05:06 PM |
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Re: It looks like la nina developing
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So I re-upped my subscription with Accuweather for the storm season. Joe B is on vacation so the only stuff I could get from his site was a review of the 2003 season (relative to his landfall intensity forecast which topped out in the 60's) and some preliminary comments as to what he was looking at for 2004. His hurricane analogs from April are 1944, 1966, 1978 and 1995.
When looking at the maps, 1995 was mostly a fish spinner and Gulf of Mexico year (Dean in TX, Opal and Erin in NW FL, Gabrielle/Allison/Roxanne in Mexico, Jerry in SE FL, and all those storms curving from about 65 west and eastward in the Western Atlantic).
Map of 1995 Storms
1978 featured only 2 weak US landfalls - Amelia in South Texas and Bess in Western Louisiana. The rest were fish spinners in the Atlantic, most curving between 55 and 75 west with the exception of Hope which formed just east of the St. Augustine, FL coast). Cora hit the Southern Yucatan and Debra hit the Vera Cruz area.
Map of 1978 Hurricane Season
The 1966 Season was primarily a fish spinner year with storms forming primarily south of 15N and curving between 60 and 78W. Alma formed off the CA Coast and moved northward through Cuba and eventually hit around Apalachacola and finally the Massachusetts Cape. Faith began as a CV Storm, looped in the Bahams, clipped the FL Keys and eventually landfalled in Northern Mexico. Hollie formed in the BOC and made landfall on the Central Mexican Coast.
1966 Hurricane Season Map
Finally, 1944 was a strong East Coast and Gulf of Mexico year. The vortexes of the parabolas at curvature were very broad. I'm assuming there was a pretty strong Bermuda High with its western influence just off the US East Coast. The Tampa Bay area was hit with a Category 1 storm, Southern NC took a TD/TS hit, CT got a Cat 1 hit, Coastal New England took 3 brushes (including the CT hit), SE La took a TS hit, and Mexico took 2 or 3 TS-Cat 1 hits.
1944 Hurricane Map
As far as the summer weather patterns, Joe is looking at 1952, 1954, 1995 and 1998. These mostly featured below normal rainfall in the SE with strong spring reversals of the SOI. He is forecasting the heat (+3 above normal) to be centered from about Western Tennessee to eastern Colorado and centered over Arkansas and Missouri. Most of those years also featured direr and warmer than average temps for all the SE States.
A few clues that Joe did give was that his landfall intensity forecast this year is factoring around 50. 37 is the normal for the US Mainland and Canadian Maritimes. Last year was around 63 or so. What also promises to be different this year (assuming no El Nino) is that the trofs (yeah, another trof split year ahead) will be much closer to the East Coast with pieces going back into the Gulf of Mexico. Joe expects the trofs to be progressive this year rather than backing west.
Joe's early take on the season is one of the 5 or 6 pieces to my forecast puzzle which I hope to have ready by late in the month.
Peace.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 05 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: It looks like la nina developing
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Steve, interesting. Hurricane Alley has performed a similar analog study. Here's what they found:
For the purpose of this study, 32 variables were considered. The list of these variables can be found here. The historical data for the past years, from 1950 forward was used for the tropical cyclone information, the best track data from the National Hurricane Center was used for the location information. Each of the 32 variables was given a weighting and a tolerance value. Only the years when the "match" was at least 80% were used. It was determined that the analog years since 1950, or those that best "fit" this year's conditions through the end of September are 1972, 1985, 1988, 1990, 1995, 2002.
1972 1985 1988 1990 1995 2002
Those years produced a few notable storms. 1985 Gave Us Elena, Gloria & Kate; 1988 spawned Gilbert, 1995 had Opal & 2002 had Lili. Of course, Gloria is the one I'll never forget. It will be interesting to see if any of these analog years resemble this year.
Only 26 days till the 2004 Season "officially" begins. Happy cinco de mayo all
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 05 2004 07:49 PM |
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my hurricane forecast
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this year will be my 12th full season of hurricane tracking, and heres my forecast:
the first will form in late may or early june
we will have 2 july storms
3 august storms
4 september storms
3 october storms
------
2 storms will hit texas
2-3 will affect florida
1 will affect north carolina
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there will be 8 hurricanes
1 in july
2 in august
3 in september
2 in october
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there will be 3 major hurricanes
1 in august
2 in september
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3-5 storms will form in the atlantic south of 20 and east of 60
3-4 will form in the carribean
2-3 will form in the gulf
2-4 will form in the atlantic north of 20 and west of 50
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2-5 storms will likely have a non-tropical origin
also there will be 3 depressions that will not make it to storm
-----
this is the closest i've come to issuing a public forecast, so itll be interesting to see how it turns out
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 05 2004 08:32 PM |
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Re: my hurricane forecast
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Bugs, you need to change your tag line...12/9/3 should be 13/8/3, at least according to your forecast
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 06 2004 04:00 AM |
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Re: First Known South Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forms
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Lil Phil sure you never lived down south you sure are learning quick.I have been looking in from time to time see that we all wait for the first storm with anticpation.I was raking my yard awhile back 11 bags of leaves in one afternoon.I thought I havn't gotten that much in awhile.The first year we move in(George).I once heard a thought about acorns and pecans if a good year following season something might happen.Old wise tale I suppose we had alot of acorns also.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu May 06 2004 01:42 PM |
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It's LI Phil Javlin
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Hey Javlin, thanks for the kind words but it's LI Phil not "Lil" Phil. Only my ex-wife can call me that
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 06 2004 04:24 PM |
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Re: It's LI Phil Javlin
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This will be an exciting year in the tropics....may be similar to '95. neutral to La Nina conditions, west QBO, SSTs coming up nicely. Haven't had time to do any serious looking (been working on too many proposals
) , but gut says real active year. Florida SSTs steadily climbing now, and I don't think we'll have the chilly waters off the coast like last year; that was crazy! SSTs in the mid 70's to near 80 at Lake Worth. All in all, might be a nasty season. That would figure, as the city is making me put a up a new fence. Mine is still leaning from Erin! CHeers!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 06 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: It looks like la nina developing
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Faith actually never hit land, went about 500 miles east of Florida and does have the distinction of maintaining tropical characteristics as it rode the Gulf Stream almost all the way to Norway. At least Cat 4 as I remember while east of Fl.
That map was confusing---take a look at NHCs...
sc
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 07 2004 01:07 AM |
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Faith vs. Inez
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Actually, the storm that Steve referred to as clipping by the keys on its way to Mexico was Hurricane Inez, not Faith
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 07 2004 01:30 AM |
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Re: Faith vs. Inez
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Thanks y'all. I was using Weather Underground's maps because they were the most convenient (though confusing).
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri May 07 2004 01:35 AM |
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Re: Faith vs. Inez
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Unysis usually has the best maps. Wunderground is easy, though.
Anyone think we're gonna get a May TS? ala Ana (albeit Ana formed in April) June storm? Or first TS in July? Hey Steve, start a poll
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 07 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: Faith vs. Inez
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I am thinking end of June around the 29th for the first tropical storm
I think wiith the waters warm as they are now that it is the best for late June. we will see..
Just a few days till the start ..
HI everyone..
| Spike |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 07 2004 04:43 PM |
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Re: Faith vs. Inez
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I'm hoping we have a good season this year. I will be watching for the formation of storms in these up coming months, during the start of the season
and yes justme we can only wait and see what this new season brings us
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 07 2004 05:42 PM |
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subtropics
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may rarely provides a tropical cyclone, and most of those will result from a subtropical hybrid-type system (except late in the month when the gulf and western caribbean will occasionally support activity). globals have a deep layer low cutting off east of bermuda near 50w (the system is splitting away from a larger trough near bermuda right now).. mrf nudges it east, euro stalls it and maintains it for a few days. ssts in the area are in the low to mid 70s, but it probably merits an occasional glance.
good to see steve dropping by, giving a summary of the bastardi scoop. has me thinking some. bastardi and the agencies/gray are generally in agreement on past analogs. personally i've been envisioning a less profound version of 1990 (pattern, not activity).. and combining it with those late 90s/early 00s seasons.. what comes out is an active year where the gate is mostly closed, but occasionally opens near the east coast.. and carib/gulf activity gets booted westward. still going to stand by 11/6/3, though i really expect i've bid low. one other factoid will help us balance the equation.. the itcz. it was at unusually low latitude when the south atlantic activity occurred--have a feeling it's going to probably play possum and act weird during some part of the upcoming season. mjo will undoubtedly control when it becomes productive. also expect a goodly number of systems to pop out of the subtropics.. probably not much starting in the caribbean except maybe late season. maybe unimaginative.. when specific patterns can be resolved (mid-latitude trough-ridge wavelengths are long, slowly progressive for now).. i'll try and come up with something. if this pattern persists into summer it will make for fairly predictable longtrackers, and lots of those systems than hang and fester near frontal tails.
HF 1938z07may
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 07 2004 07:06 PM |
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ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
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A friend of mine showed me an article today---I think in Yahoo (I haven't had time to look) that says another storm is threatening Brazil. It is a 55kt storm, tropical, and is 'not as bad as the last one' according to Brazilian authorities.
On line today..!!!!
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri May 07 2004 07:37 PM |
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Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
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Here's a link to that Brazilian storm:
Brazilian Storm
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 07 2004 08:49 PM |
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Re: ANOTHER S. ATL storm threatens Brazil
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What's going on HF? Nice analysis. I'm thinking this is a fish spinner, NW FL, South Texas/Mexico year overall with maybe one TS or H making its way toward either LA, MS or AL. I gotta do a whole lot more research in the next 3 weeks, but one thing that stands out is the -3+ SSTA's across most of the Gulf. Should that remain, the window definitely won't be open for anything really strong, but I wouldn't rule out a 2 or 3. Joe B's comments were wholly based on an El Nino NOT developing because if one did, then it could have major implications. I read a Dericho post over at storm 2 k where the possibilities of the twin systems in the Indian Ocean could portend and onset of El Nino at some point (assuming the possibility of twin systems to follow in the west pac). I didn't read the entirety of the position papers, and Cycloneye's response "so you're saying it might be 7 months down the line" seemed much more reasonable based on current Pacific water temperature profiles.
Anyway, with a ST Trof hanging between 90-100 again and with the splits near the east coast backing their way into the Gulf, they can be activated by waves coming through (as we have seen before many times). So I'm not yet ready to predict a dud year for the Gulf overall, but I gotta think there's no way to sustain the level of activity from 2002 and 2003.
Steve
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 07 2004 10:42 PM |
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Poll=When and where Alex will form
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Ok I am making this poll to see what the members think about when and where the first storm will form.
I will say that Alex will form by late June in the western caribbean.
Hey Steve I agree with you that the GOM will not be as active as the past 2 seasons but time will tell.
| LI Phil |
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| Sat May 08 2004 01:39 AM |
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Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
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This post is not based on meterology (as if any of mine are)...but I'll postulate that we have our first TS by June 10. And Alex will form somewhere in the GOM. HF, Steve, Frank P., JK et al, want to take a shot at our first??? I'll probably be two weeks early, but with the cold tongue, possible La Nina and the high early season SSTs, I'll wager we get an early season TS in the GOM/Carribbean this season. BTW, who's gonna be the first to 'graduate' from "Weather Master" to "Storm Chaser" (700 Posts)?...Glad to see so many on line this early, should be a great season
| HanKFranK |
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| Sat May 08 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
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how about may 9th east of bermuda? i don't really believe that, but there is an interesting (if unfounded and likely laughable) idea in my head at the moment. i don't know a whole lot about cross-equatorial mjo induced twin cyclones, but at this time there is a pair in the indian ocean (23s, and 01a). it struck me that two potential hybrid-type systems are in the atlantic at this time. now, neither is near the equator (east of bermuda an occluded low, hybrid system near the southern brazilian coast).. but the similar longitude placement of these features at the same time an equatorial pair are on an mjo pulse in the indian ocean is striking. the system in the south atlantic.. i checked the back story a little. cnn.com had a story on it may 6, vague on its tropical nature, and yahoo had that posted ap article. i looked at ghcc satelite shots from may 5-7.. it doesn't make a good case for a tropical cyclone.. however today it is starting to. now, its the equivalent of november down there, ssts are cooler, and the system has a hybrid nature i doubt it can shake.. as does the low in the atlantic. i don't know exactly how either will evolve (the altantic system, though currently cut off, is likely to interact with an approaching front).. but i am going to surmise that they will both parrot each other, just out of pure interest. so, if that SA system starts looking tropical, the one east of bermuda should too.. and verse vica.
there are the resources at the unisys archive necessary to look up recent examples of cross-equatorial twins (the recent 2002 triumvirate of pairs, i know of already). maybe i'll take some time and see what i can dig up. 2002 was an el nino year, but a fairly active one. i don't see an el nino taking shape this fall.. though 2002 may be a worthy addition as an analog. in spite of el nino it stayed dry here in the southeast.. like it looks to be headed right now.
i'll totally blow my chances at getting the poll target date right, but here goes: sunday, may 9th.
HF 2101z08may
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun May 09 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: Poll=When and where Alex will form
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Think if we have an early storm, it will be in the western Caribbean. With strong high in place in the western Atlantic and models showing low pressure north of Panama, this is the area to watch. BTW, the GOM will get plenty warm in the next month, so I wouldn't worry about that. Warmring is beginning to occur there now, and its spreading north. Cheers!!
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon May 10 2004 02:22 AM |
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nah
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nothing doing. it's trying, but water is too cool.. mid latitude shortwaves driving the train. of course, this happens in june and we get us a system.
itcz is down around 5N, no waves to speak of perking up along it. interesting to note that ssts off the peruvian coast near the galapagos are still trending downward.. more pronounced than the broad area of weakly warm surface waters in nino 3/4.
dont make anything out of the cool gulf. that can change in a couple of weeks, and probably will. summer is close now.
HF 0321z10may
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon May 10 2004 04:53 AM |
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Re: nah
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Phil,
I had a little more time to check out the Hurricane Alley link. They have my area as a high risk based on the 80% of 32 variable analogs. If the link works:
http://hurricanealley.net/images/region7landcty.jpg
That's "Region 7"
These are the historicals from the analogs
http://hurricanealley.net/impactreg7.html
I don't know that I agree, but like everyone else, I'm always looking for a little action. As far as the other regions I clicked on, they have Long Island as a moderate risk, and NE of Halifax as "high". The hotlink for Region 4 (coastal NC) was inactive.
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Mon May 10 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Steve
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Steve,
Yeah, they've SLOWLY been updating their regions. Last week my region wasn't up but it is now. Outer Banks (Region 4) still not up. I'm not sure I agree with their progs either, but time will tell. TSR is supposed to be putting out their May predictions today, but as of 10:30, they weren't up either. Will keep on that. Cheers, Phil
| Steve |
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| Mon May 10 2004 04:19 PM |
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Re: Steve
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I'm assuming they'd have the Outer Banks as a "high risk" which is probably legit year after year. Let me know when they update that sector and I'll check it out.
For HF:
Joe B mentioned that he's expecting another early surge of tropical moisture heading up from the S/SSE in early June. He busted on that forecast last year when the moisture that came up twice ended up only being a deep surge rather than anything organized. He noted that the Canadian is already hinting at such, but he doesn't expect anything for now (just the way the pattern is starting to look).
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Mon May 10 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: Steve
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Steve,
Just checked again at 12:45 and still no update. Question: They don't list the area from SC/GA or FLA at all. I'd assume those would have to be regions 5 & 6...think that'll come at a later date? Very surprising they're not listed, unless they're saving those areas for last.
Phil
| GaryC |
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| Mon May 10 2004 04:47 PM |
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Re: Steve
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I think we will get our first storm in the bahamma's around june 26th. Thats my wedding date and we are going from here in Jax to the bahamma's. It would be my luck too.
| Cycloneye |
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| Mon May 10 2004 07:22 PM |
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Phil
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I checked that site and no update yet as of 3:20 PM EDT.Well maybe TSR will not update today but tommorow but I always wait for them to see what they say about the season ahead..
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon May 10 2004 08:01 PM |
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check out SW carib and yucatan
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colorful
| Cycloneye |
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| Mon May 10 2004 08:28 PM |
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Re: check out SW carib and yucatan
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That may be the first tropical wave of the year down there near Costa Rica and Panama.
| LI Phil |
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| Mon May 10 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: check out SW carib and yucatan
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Still no updates maybe tomorrow. That wave in the SW Carib & Yucatan looks like it's dissipating. Anyone with more experience agree/disagree? Check it out:
carib wave
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue May 11 2004 02:14 AM |
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Re: subtropics
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Still no update from TSR, however, NOAA does have an ENSO update. Here is a link to a global SST loop. Let the loop continue to run and eventually a slide-show type of update should appear. It indicates neutral conditions for three more months. My own thoughts are that neutral ENSO will exist at least through October - thus having no impact one way or another on the upcoming tropical Atlantic season (although I'm sure that other factors will). Notice that the SST anomalies are below normal over the entire GOM and that this has happened in just the last couple of weeks. Also just about the entire north Atlantic anomaly has gone from slightly positive to zero in the same time period - interesting.
I'll try to give some thoughts to analog years in a new main page article this weekend.
Global SST Animation
Oh, and to throw my (tropical storm force) WAG into the wind, I'll pick July 31st (plus or minus one week) for Alex.
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue May 11 2004 02:23 AM |
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Re: subtropics
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Ed,
>>thus having no impact one way or another on the upcoming tropical Atlantic season
Id' have to disagree. As we get more data, I think whatever phase we're in (waxing/waning) of whatever condition (el nino/neutral/la nina) has an effect. But if you meant a surpressing effect or increased westerlies coming in from the EPAC, then I'd agree.
Steve
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Tue May 11 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: subtropics
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I really meant no supressing (or enhancing) effect from an El Nino / La Nina point of view over the season as a whole. Other factors would determine total basin activity with no real seasonal influence (positive or negative) from equatorial Pacific SSTs. A weak El Nino may eventually kick in, but probably not until October - or later.
ED
| LI Phil |
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| Tue May 11 2004 02:17 PM |
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TSR Forecast
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One day late, but now online, the TSR forecast:
TSR
Numbers slightly down from April's forecast, but still predicting an above-average season.
Only (
) 20 days till the 2004 season starts.
| LI Phil |
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| Tue May 11 2004 08:32 PM |
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Very Cool Site
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If anyone hasn't yet checked out this site, it's pretty schweet. Developed by Dr. Gray & Colorado State Professor Phil Klotzbach, the Web page is strictly an exercise in statistics, and is inexact, said Klotzbach, who created it in conjunction with Colorado State and Bridgewater State College in Massachusetts. It simply takes the box score of storms striking an area over the 20th century, divides it by the number of years, and tweaks it by the 2004 forecast. The Texas-to-Maine coastline is split into 11 regions and 96 subregions. All counties in a subregion get the same odds.
Something to look at during the down time...
Hurricane Strike Map
| LI Phil |
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| Wed May 12 2004 02:09 PM |
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Outer Banks Site Now Active On Hurricane Alley
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Steve,
Region 4 has now been updated on Hurricane Alley. Surprisingly, it's only rated as "Moderate" rather than "High" in terms of impact...very strange indeed
Outer Banks
| Rabbit |
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| Wed May 12 2004 05:46 PM |
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Hybrid hurricane in 2000
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i saw an interesting satellite image looking through the archives of 2000
http://cdo.ncdc.noaa.gov/GOESBrowser/goesbrowser
set date at oct 4 2000
scroll down and click East ir 00:00
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 13 2004 01:23 AM |
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Re: Hybrid hurricane in 2000
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Nice pre-hurricane season week down here in the Gulf South. It flooded about 2 miles away from me on Monday. It also flooded heavily between Slidell and Lacombe. They got 16" in Poydras (St. Bernard Parish) on Tuesday. Lafayette area got tons of rain today, and we're in the middle of a real-deal flash flood warning now. A tornado was reported near the airport around 7:30 (7 miles west), so they issued that, then a STW now a flash flood warning. I put something up on Jimw's board about it, but in May, sometimes the fronts and upper features don't have a push through my area. My streets are flooded, but the cars are okay for now. We'll watch and party.
Peace,
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Thu May 13 2004 02:28 PM |
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Hey Steve
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Saw the terrible (?) weather you're having. I guess as long as you're actually not hit by a tornado it's probably very cool
. Anyhoo, just exactly where is Old Metairie in relation to the coast? I have a US Atlas, but I can't seem to find it...I know that a lot of LA is swampland and that NO is constantly under the threat of floods, due to it's elevation, or lack thereof...Just wondering. BTW, I'm about 9 miles from the coast, so my biggest fear in a hurric is downed trees and lost power (ala Gloria 1985) than surge. Enjoy your weather party
| Steve |
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| Thu May 13 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: Hey Steve
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Old Metairie is what they call the south-eastern portion of my unincorporated area. If you find City Park Ave. in New Orleans, it turns into Metairie Rd. (aka Old Metairie Rd.). Metairie Road cruises through OM.
And yeah, it was more fun than terrible. I cleaned the storm drains out in the middle. Lightning for over 2 hours and rain for over 4. The only suck thing was that I ran out of booze (= unprepared).
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Thu May 13 2004 02:37 PM |
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LOL
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Steve, Thx! Ed will probably delete this post as off-topic, but ya gotta keep that bottle o'Johnny Walker Blue stashed for just such an occasion. We had a bout of t-storms here yesterday (and probably again today), but nothing to write home about. Keep your storm drains clear and your eyes to the gulf
PS> Just found it on the map. 'bout 5 miles away from Tulane, no?
| LI Phil |
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| Thu May 13 2004 02:54 PM |
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One Last Thing...
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Don't know if you saw these, but Hurricane Alley has your area at High Risk for a landfalling hurric for August, Sept. & Oct., and for July, low risk. Rest up, looks like you may have a loooonnnnnngggg summer/fall ahead.
august september october
| Rabbit |
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| Thu May 13 2004 05:40 PM |
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Tropical Storm Grace-1997
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in the past months before hurricane season, i have done an extensive satellite analysis of the last 7 years, in order to see if i should make any changes to my forecast. Well once again, i found something very questionable--of the two cloud masses at about 20 north, why was the western one classified as Grace? it appeared poorly organized and less tropical than the eastern system, and Grace had no easily detectable center
| Rabbit |
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| Thu May 13 2004 05:41 PM |
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Tropical Storm Grace-1997
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the first image didnt seem to attach
| LI Phil |
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| Thu May 13 2004 06:52 PM |
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More 2004 Hurricane Predictions
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Here's yet another Hurricane Prediction Site, Weather Research Center. Somewhat interesting predictions, and they claim to have a better prediction record than Dr. Gray. They call for a 60% chance for a Hurricane or TS along the Texas coast, while giving a 70% chance for a Florida West Coast strike. Also, they only call for seven named storms, with 4 becoming hurricanes--3 of which will make US landfall. Also, they're calling for a 60% chance for CAT 3 or higher.
wxresearch
| javlin |
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| Thu May 13 2004 08:16 PM |
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Re: More 2004 Hurricane Predictions
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Interesting read there Phil.I think our shortage of rain is over for awhile down here.The wind was coming a good 20 mph yesterday of the GOM water was maybe 18>24 inches under the peers.Parts of 90 in the Pass area were under.
| Steve |
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| Fri May 14 2004 12:14 PM |
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Re: More 2004 Hurricane Predictions
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Here's a note from Joe B for any fans who haven't signed up for the 30 day free trial yet. He's going to post his landfall intensity forecast sometime in mid-June but promised a sneak peak at the end of the month, "The May hurricane discussion will give you enough of an idea of what we are looking at to understand the kind of season it will be in general terms as far as landfall activity goes. The current thinking is for more than the normal intensity rating on my scale ( the explanation is available on last years forecast for this) with focus of greatest threat of a major hurricane on the gulf coast or Florida, rather than the Carolinas as last year. But that is a thumbnail sketch and the painting has yet to be completed. "
I don't know where I stand yet. A lot of different respectable weather sources are pointing in a lot of different directions. You want to take the path of least resistance, but I'm still hung up on Atlantic H2O temp profiles, whether or not we are in for primarily a negative or positive NAO and/or SOI this year. While blowing some of the numbers (getting semi-close), I've done pretty good with landfalls the last few years. I've got a feeling I'll be dumbed back down to rank amateur after this season! But I will take the leap of faith before June 1st!
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Fri May 14 2004 02:13 PM |
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2004 Hurricane Predictions
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Like Steve, I'm not really sure how this season is going to play out. For now, I'll stick with my 14/8/3, as so far, many signs are pointing towards an active season. I may be high (no pun intended) on the number of named storms, but right now I'm fairly confident on the number of hurricanes and intense canes. While they certainly posess greater knowledge than I, I believe wxresearch.com is too low with their call for only 7 named storms. With still half a month until the official season starts, things are beginning to become a bit clearer. Interesting that Joe B. has the GOM and FLA as a more likely target than the rest of the EC. Other sites are opining that as well. Will be interesting to see if that actually plays out.
| HanKFranK |
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| Fri May 14 2004 03:38 PM |
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medium range
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notable only because it keeps recurring... gfs is developing low pressure in the western caribbean and surging the energy out to the northeast in the 8-14 day range.. this feature has appeared on several runs. too far out to take seriously, added to that fact that it is may. also of note the model weakens the subtropical jet and draws the itcz northward near its early summer position.
i'm not sure how much creedence this model output deserves, but it will keep me glancing at the western caribbean around the end of next week, and watching for those seasonal pattern modifications.
interesting that one of the two areas running way behind for hurricane strikes (big bend/florida west coast, charleston to melbourne) has a bastardi bullseye on it. area is vulnerable most of the season, just has had candidates from its potential threat source region pushed too far east or west in recent years.
eastpac season kick off tomorrow. probably nothing doing through next week though.
HF 1637z14may
| Steve |
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| Fri May 14 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: medium range
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UK Met and Canadian have been showing similar impulses too HF. May be just the sign that there will be a buildup of heat in the area sometime in the next few weeks. I never was good with statistics and complicated forumlas.
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Fri May 14 2004 08:33 PM |
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West African Sahel...
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While researching hurricane mitigation, I came across this bit of information, from Dr. Gray. I found it quite interesting:
"Indeed, there is strong evidence that intense hurricane formation is cyclic, with a periodicity of approximately twenty years (Gray, 1990). In his paper "Strong Association Between West African Rainfall and U.S. Landfall of Intense Hurricanes," Gray presents evidence that there is a high positive correlation between rainfall in the West African Sahel and the incidence of intense hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. East Eoast. Gray found that during periods of West African Sahel drought there are few intense hurricanes making U.S. East Coast landfalls, while during rainy periods in the Sahel a greater number of intense hurricanes make U.S. East Coast landfall. The increased Sahel rainfall produces slow-moving squall systems called easterly waves that act as triggers for hurricane formation.
The frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes doubles during periods of Sahel rainfall. Gray documents that the average number of intense Atlantic hurricanes per year went from approximately 1.5 per year during dry periods to approximately three per year during wet periods. Viewed another way, the number of intense hurricane days increased significantly during wet periods: the number of intense hurricane days was four times greater than during dry periods. This implies that not only are there more intense Atlantic hurricanes during Sahel wet periods, but also that these intense hurricanes are longer-lived."
Does anyone know about this and if so, how might one go about finding whether the Sahel is in (or will be in) a wet period?
| Steve |
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| Fri May 14 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: West African Sahel...
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Only data through 2002
Global Precipitation Time Series
June-July-August 4 Month Lead Time Precip Forecast
NCEP Search = "Sahel"
| LI Phil |
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| Fri May 14 2004 09:33 PM |
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Thanks, Steve
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Thanks for the links Steve. I'll have to bookmark them. Looks like the data are portending an above average season. Cheers, Phil.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 14 2004 10:14 PM |
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Re: West African Sahel...
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However, Dr. Gray has recently said the correlation between Sahel rainfall and tropical cyclone formation has broken down for reasons unknown, and he no longer considers it a factor in the development of his seasonal forecasts.
West Gulf looks interesting---except it is May, and a rope cloud (sign of lack of tropical development) has appeared. However, appears there may be a vorticity center behind the main cloud mass, close to Tx/Mx border.
The Orbital Cyclone page did opine the season may (no pun intended) start early.
sc
| LI Phil |
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| Sat May 15 2004 12:41 AM |
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Re: West African Sahel...
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SC-thx for that info. Still trying to understand all this stuff. Did Dr. Gray give any rationale for discounting the Sahel data? I'd actually never heard of it before (newbie, of sorts), but it seemed a valid factor in TS development.
If any of you guys (or gals) w/more experience have any other pre-season predictors, let the board know. Wondering if Ed will start a new thread over the weekend for the 2K4 season...
| HanKFranK |
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| Sat May 15 2004 03:23 PM |
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Re: West African Sahel...
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climate slowly changes all the time; the sahel rainfall correlation means/meant something, but recently something else is overshadowing its significance. 'with extreme complexity' is a good description for how the earth operates--all sorts of things are going on at once, some we understand, some we don't, and the relative significance of any one changes given the situation. the sahel correlation isn't working, and i'm just as happy... the u.s. east coast has taken only ONE major hurricane hit in the last decade. that's statistically way off the mark. the gulf coast hasn't fared much worse.
by the way, steve.. it was your earlier mention that bastardi was noting a surge out of the tropics that got me looking there to begin with. you brought it to the table here first; i should make mention that i'm only making a secondhand sighting. a further note would be that there seems to be an mjo wave propagating eastward from the westpac (possibly triggered indian ocean systems around a week ago, now the area east of the phillipines is active). wish i had an idea when it gets to this side of the big blue ball. maybe end of the month. the model has the suspicious feature's first manifestations around late next week, into the following week... probably too early for mjo to get across. if it keeps peeking by tuesday/wednesday.. get psyched. may disturbances usually only give us an invest that shears out.. it's been more than twenty years since one went 'all the way'. low probability event if it goes.
eastpac all quiet.
HF 1623z15may
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat May 15 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: 2004 Hurricane Predictions
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Its comforting to know that hurricane alley is not predicting any strikes in South East Florida this year.t
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat May 15 2004 04:02 PM |
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Re: West African Sahel...
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I almost sought out Tropical Weather Watcher on another board the other day to ask him about the MJO. On either Wed. or Thurs, there was a massive diurnal blowup on and off Mexico, in the Gulf and in the Lower Mississippi Valley. There were extra colors (/bobbi) pulsing, and it looked like there was some extra motivation with all the whites (higher cloudtops) on all the sysetms at the same time relative to what the rest of the week saw. Something was up anyway.
Steve
| LI Phil |
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| Sat May 15 2004 11:35 PM |
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MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.
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While browsing for some updated info on the current worldwide state of climactic conditions, I stumbled on the following information, which I thought might be useful:
"The equatorial Pacific remains in a neutral state. Equatorial SST anomalies are near zero, and have changed little from March. The monthly SOI was strongly negative, largely as a result of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity in early April. The three month SOI (February-April) continues in the neutral range. For April and for February to April, the NINO3 SST anomaly was about +0.2°C, and NINO4 was about +0.4°C. Subsurface temperatures show negative anomalies near the surface in the eastern Equatorial Pacific, with positive anomalies in the farther west, both of which appear to be propagating east. Most of the global models indicate that neutral conditions are the most likely outcome for the rest of the year, though the chance of an El Niño developing is slightly higher than average."
First mention I'd heard of a possible El Nino this year. What does it mean? HF, Steve, Ed, sc, anyone want to take a stab?
| Steve |
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| Sun May 16 2004 03:41 AM |
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Re: MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.
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Models are mostly neutral to warm in the distant term. They've been saying that off and on since La Nina came back up a few years ago and has kind of held on in the EPAC zones. Positive ENSO in the zones in this hemisphere make for a stronger subtropical jet stream (SW influence) and add shear (at various MB heights) to the western Altantic, Gulf and Caribbean. El Nino years tend to have surpressed overall activity but are also known to harbor some of the more vicious storms of the last few decades (Andrew, Camile, Betsy and others).
Steve
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon May 17 2004 03:48 AM |
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Re: MJO, ENSO, SSTs, etc.
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el nino.. i'll believe it when i see it. like steve said, models always calling for it for years, but it hasnt done a whole lot lately. weak-moderate one in 2002 didn't knock a big hole in our numbers, a noticeable one, but not a season-ender.
gfs still calling for that disturbance, still reconfiguring the atlantic shear pattern in a week. nothing to say other than that.. besides that the westpac is running wide open right now.
i've got a mind that the pacific sst config will resemble last year's. also suspect that a spread out, above average season is on the way.. that belies my unchanging numbers.. 11/6/3.
HF 0448z17may