CFHC () Tue Jun 01 2004 03:53 AM	The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	Today is the first day of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season. The season runs from Today (June 1st) until November 30th. Although storms can form anytime during the season (and very rarely outside the season) most storms tend to form in August, September, and October. In June storm formation is not the norm, but when they do, usually storms will form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf, and tend not to be on the high end. We'll be watching here, as we expect a slightly higher than average season this year. This is the 9th year that this site has been running, and we hope to improve it some during this season. With new looks and more data available. As it still remains a hobby site for us, things probably will progress slowly. All the automated functionality from previous years remains. As we open, there isn't much to write home about regarding activity. For once I don't expect a named storm until July this year. We will see. We'll keep an eye out. NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) For a seasonal Forecast Update, see the Storm Forum. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page. - [mike@flhurricane.com] (minor correction)
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Tue Jun 01 2004 04:13 AM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	A new season is with us and let's see how it all pans out and the forecasts from the majority of the experts are right as they see an active season.Happy tracking to all here and be safe.It only takes one system to do all the damage so no matter how the season is in terms of activity we must be prepared.See all down the road.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jun 01 2004 04:35 AM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	Usual shout out to everyone for the start of a new hurricane season. I'm looking forward to the return of all the usual suspects who stay silent in the offseason. You all know who you are. For the last two years, I posted having the feeling going into each season that many of us would get a shot at seeing some tropical activity. 2004 should be no exception. I believe North America will will see several landfalling systems of varying intensities in 2004. And if you're in the South, you shouldn't have to travel far to see some action. We've all got our forecasts up and have made our predictions. Most of us know what our supplies are and what we still need in order to finish off our checklists. June usually comes and goes, but I wouldn't stray too far away from my computer this June. The 2004 season got off to a bang several days ago when flashfloods from an unnamed storm caused by torrential rainfall killed upwards of 2000 people in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. That storm serves as a reminder that water kills. If you are under a serious evacuation order this year, you need to heed those warnings, or at least, make sure you've got enough booze to ride that sucker out. My family and I won't be leaving for anything sub-Category 4 this year. Of course & as always, if my wife decides the gettin's good and wants to take the kids, she's free to do so. But if we all agree to hang tough, we'll be partying it up enjoying feeder bands, squalls and all the chaos a storm can bring. Cheers to everyone. May you get the rush this year without anything catastrophic happening. Peace Steve
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jun 01 2004 04:40 AM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	One more thing for the kickoff thread. If the metro New Orleans area is threatened, any CFHCer is more than welcomed to ride out a storm at my place. I can't promise you'll live, but I can definitely promise you we'll catch a good drinking buzz. In honor of our own Frank P, I'm guzzling JD out of my Crown [tm] rocks glass. Steve
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Tue Jun 01 2004 01:03 PM	Same goes for Miami down here...
	Any small storm I stay home... a big one I go to my best friend's house (better shutters). Either way will be glad to see any of you.. or give directions to the best place for watching the storm surge. I'll be there... taking pictures until its no longer safe or they close the beach. Funny comment, remember them closing Miami Beach by Andrew... like everyone off the island... oh well... won't go there in this post but was amazing, you could hear the Ocean pounding the shore over the shrill of the roaring, piercing wind. Back to 2004... my door is always open... Mi Casa es Su Casa if I got that right?? Woke up to drizzling rain this morning... still gray, still wet... funny how it started today like someone turned on the weather switch for the Hurricane Season. Watched the update... funny, fun to see.. always annoyed they never say anything the first day.. Looking at the name list... interesting list... did I miss the B storm? What a list.. Otto.. makes you want to get to 15 just to have a Hurricane Otto. And, will Gaston go to New Orleans? Oh come on...I know someone here was thinking it. Bonnie.. okay, like Bonnie.. one of my favorites. Remember the last Bonnie dancing in the Bahamas..swirling round and round. Good thing we don't get down to Shary or Walt cause bet they would be too much to handle... though one day with global warming (grin) I guess we will make it all the way down to Zev and then start over again. Have a safe but fun hurricane season.. lets get going and I agree with Steve... all of you people who know who you are... stop hiding behind trees.. Bobbi
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Tue Jun 01 2004 01:14 PM	Re: Same goes for Miami down here...
	I am still watching that piece of energy that has made its way to the passage between Cuba and the Mexican coast line sort of (got to go back and reread my geography a bit. Anyway. I know it is nothing, but it has stayed together well and I am hoping will bring some much needed moisture to central florida. We are thirsty here.
javlin (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 01:45 PM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	What about Frank P Steve have not heard from him in awhile .
javlin (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 01:56 PM	Re: Same goes for Miami down here...
	I am the same way Bobbi I always stay.The thing is that once you leave you never can get back in for some time.The house I am in now was my parents it road ouy Camille.We where in shelter at KAFB that night.Iwas here during Georges and the win howled much more than Elena.I watch Elena that from the windows with curiousity.I got to go out in the middle of the eye pick up debris.The firestation up the road kept us informed of how much time we had left in the eye.They would tell us over the loud speaker "three minutes before the eye passes".But Georges scared me.I use to tell Frank P that each storm has it's own personality.
stormchazer (Storm Tracker) Tue Jun 01 2004 02:10 PM	Re: Same goes for Miami down here...
	Greetings Hurricane Watchers....I cannot offer the same accommodations as Lois or Steve in the event of a Weather emergency. Its not that I am a mean and unfriendly guy. I live in a mobile home, which in Hurricane terms translates to "potential flying debris". In the event of a Hurricane, my family and I will seek shelter in my parents cement block home. Everyone stock the normal supplies and prepare for what I hope is a busy, with no major landfalling, hurricane season. Be safe!
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Tue Jun 01 2004 02:31 PM	Steve, throw out the first pitch, time to play ball
	Good point Jav about hurricane having their own unique personalities, I agree with that statement 100% having experience my first one with Betsy in 65. Hey Steve, my hurricane-tracking guru neighbor in N'Awlins, another hurricane season kicking off again, awesome!!! I sure am looking forward to another interesting year to say the least, and get some great observations and predictions from you and the rest of the gang that frequents the CFHC board. Also look forward to those great pixs from you if you get any hot tropical action over your way. You and I both have gotten our fair share the past couple of season haven’t we? Will the string continue? Time will tell! Oh Steve, also just bought a half gallon of Crown, thus completing my storm preparations… To stay or not to stay? That could be the question of the day, as nothing seems rather too imminent in the tropics at the moment. Living on the beach in Biloxi my house sits 20 feet above sea level, so it would take a Cat 5 storm to put water in my house… and since I’ve already experience a Cat 5 with Camille (remember, you only get that Cat 5 once in a lifetime) then I’m not to worried about seeing another one again. Chances are that I’ll ride out any type storm on the coast, excluding perhaps another Cat 5. Family will evacuate for anything above a strong 2 (but also depends on what side of the storm I will be on, west side of the center with north winds are really not much of a deal for me unless we’re in the eye wall), but since I built the house I’m living in, I’m reasonably sure that unless one of them big oak in the front yard falls on it, I should be OK regardless of any expected wind velocities. However, I would never recommend anyone to ride out a hurricane, especially if they have not experienced a major hurricane. Heck, even Cat 2 can be rather hectic and scary too. I am looking for another above average season, and as has been the case for the past two seasons, that direct hit for New Orleans, only because from a probability standpoint they are well past due… Miami Fl is also due (IMO), so those are my two ground zero areas for this season…(just another crap shoot prediction on my end) and it’s just a matter of time before a major storm hits a densely populated area, maybe this will be the year, hopefully not. Anyone want a beach front view of a storm, call me as reservations must be made 48 hours in advance or else the police will probably not allow you access to highway 90! But bring proof of life insurance. All major credit cards accepted! Hopefully it will be all in fun this year and no one will experience any major damage, I know I don’t want any more damage on my house from storms. But living on the coast is just part of the risk, and as we all know, sure worth it!
LI Phil (User) Tue Jun 01 2004 02:31 PM	LI should be clear this year...
	Happy Hurricane Season to all. Seems like just yesterday all the weather watchers were posting up a storm...oh, wait, that WAS yesterday. Like Steve said a few posts ago, we should look forward to the usual suspects returning to the boards now. Shout out to Frank P., whom I'm sure will be with us shortly, as well as all the others whose names are too many to mention. I know some of you, especially a couple who live on the gulf, in Old Metairie and Mobile (shout out to CAT V Rick), want to ride out a CAT III, I for one want no part of such...unless I'm in a real solid MOTEL, miles away from my home, with emergency generator power, drinkin' and watchin' the 20' waves; for that, I'd sit thru a CAT III. Wouldn't want to ride it out in my own home... As far as Long Island, most of the pundits feel we'll be spared any hits this year, and that's good. I'm not particularly worried about where I live, as I'm about 9 miles inland. However, my Aunt owns a summer home in East Hampton, which is quite at risk for anything coming up the coast. I "volunteer" to watch the home whenever anything threatens us. If ever anything like the '38 LI Express were to recur, though, the house would be under 20' of water. I wouldn't be staying for that. If anyone is wondering where East Hampton is, it is located on the south fork of LI, about 10 miles from Montauk (which is the END) of LI. In fact, my new avitar is the Montauk Point lighthouse, which I visited for the umpteenth time this weekend, and took that very photo. OK, enough babbling...everyone be safe and have your tracking charts at the ready. If all pans out, we'll be having an active year. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Rabbit (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 03:19 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	LI, you side pic or whatever its called is enormous again
Rabbit (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 03:25 PM	another low in Caribbean
	looks like a low trying to form at about 10N/78 or 79W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
LI Phil (User) Tue Jun 01 2004 03:37 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	Rabbit, it wasn't enormous on my screen, but I'll take your word on it...changed the avitar again just in case. Been noticing that activity down near 10/79 also. SSTs quite warm in the area. Definitely bears watching. Good catch.
doug (Weather Analyst) Tue Jun 01 2004 04:17 PM	Re: another low in Caribbean
	Greetings to all! Everybody is already alert and up and running I see. The "circulation " Rabbit suggested seems to be over the isthmus or actually in the Pacific, if there at all...moving west...does not look threatening. We could sure use a good depression however...less than 1" rain since May 1. EDS.
James88 (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 05:32 PM	Re: another low in Caribbean
	Nothing points to any sudden development in the Atlantic basin, but then systems can sometimes spin up fast. On another note, there is a new invest up in the East Pacific - at the moment it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery. Could this be the beginnings of Blas?
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 01 2004 06:00 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	Don't agree there LI Phil. IMO, this year could be the type of season that a couple of storms may ride the Bermuda/Central Atlantic high up the coast. Me thinks New England will see a hit of a TS/Cane. Agree with Frank P. that Miami +/- 300 miles will see a hit, as well as the central Gulf coast. Should be an exciting year though. And I think we'll see a June storm. Cheers!!
James88 (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 06:10 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	A June storm isn't that unlikely - SSTs appear to be warm enough to support a storm in the W. Caribbean and GOM. In fact, since 1990 only five years have gone without a named storm forming in June. (1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002)
LI Phil (User) Tue Jun 01 2004 06:18 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	Steve H. I wouldn't mind a TS or weak CAT I, just don't want anything worse than that. Gloria was bad enough for me. Many trees down, no power for a week, huge cleanup. Give me a '91 Bob, that I can deal with. LI Phil
James88 (Weather Master) Tue Jun 01 2004 07:49 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	From what I can gather, the last storm to affect your neck of the woods was Floyd in '99. Did that have much of an effect on your area?
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Tue Jun 01 2004 08:17 PM	Re: LI should be clear this year...
	Phil how was that Bob experience in 91 a cat 3 cane riding the east coast? You up there in LI dont see so many tropical systems right?
LI Phil (User) Tue Jun 01 2004 09:05 PM	For Jim & Luis
	Floyd was but a mere shell of himself when he arrived...told this story before, but for the newer members: Met Jim Cantore at Point Lookout (near Jones Beach) during Floyd. Pretty cool...my brush with greatness. We got almost no rain but the wind was blowing the sand pretty hard. After each live shot, JC would go back into his trailer...but not after taking a good 10 minutes to chat it up with all the weather loonies who had gathered to see the man. Real nice guy. Took some 14 year old kid aside and talked with him and his dad for a good 10 minutes. The kid had the same anamometer as Cantore! Only the kid's was measuring 50+ MPH while JC's was only registering in the 30s! (What's up with that). Anyhoo, that was Floyd for me. As for Bob in '91, I was the only one in my office to go to work, so the whole day I looked out at the wind and rain. Neither of which was too bad. Way out east, where I was not, it was much worse. Bob just clipped the eastern end of LI, so NE got it pretty bad. I won't go into Gloria, but lets suffice it to say that if a female storm heads my way, I may be headed the other (no offense to the ladies on this site). Finally, finally, finally, I took the plunge and got Accuweather Pro. Man are there a lot of features, some of which I don't quite even understand. But I had to get Joe B. Almost signed up for Accuweather Premium but that doesn't include Joe. Good thing I read the differences between the two before buying. Hope it lives up the the hype. So along with Steve, if anyone wants to know what Joe has to say, I can paraphrase or repost small portions for the viewing audience. He was terse (if that term can actually apply to Joe) today, and here's a snippet: "But that ridge means business and I don't have any changes as to how the next ten days evolve with that. The ridge fights off the trof and a split develops that leaves a subtropical trof over the Gulf near 90 west that may back next week. This opens up the Gulf to a deep southeast flow of rich, warm air from South America and the western Caribbean, and this is something that will have to be watched for possible tropical troubles, if not with some storm, then with at least the influx of moist, unstable air for non-frontal produced thunderstorms." So, great people of the south, get ready for some fun next week. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jun 01 2004 09:27 PM	Re: For Jim & Luis
	It's worth my $0.48/day to watch the streaming videos (Long Ranger and Tropical Update) for a few months. Joe does go ape-stuff too often, but he sniffs out stuff 2-3 weeks ahead of almost any other source. An addendum to what Phil posted, Joe did a lot of pimping of 1998 this year. Many may remember the Gulf hits that year. We got banding from Frances, wind from Georges, nothing from Hermine which passed directly overhead (convection was east of Mobile Bay), Earl, and Charlie (and of course Mitch down in Central America). His thinking is that the water temperature profiles are most similar with that year "a big Gulf year." Steve
Spike (Storm Tracker) Tue Jun 01 2004 09:52 PM	Re: For Jim & Luis
	We can only wait and see what this new season of storms will bring us.
clyde w. (Storm Tracker) Wed Jun 02 2004 12:11 AM	Re: For Jim & Luis
	Just popping in with a quick hello to everyone. Good to see all the old faves are back and posting. I've been off chasing tornadoes (on-line of course ) the last few weeks, but as the season heats up, I look forward to spending it with the CFHC gang as usual. This has to be the season that Steve stops hogging all the action and sends a storm or two our way. No Andrew's thank-you-very-much, but another Erin from '95 would be fun...
joepub1 (Storm Tracker) Wed Jun 02 2004 12:12 AM	Re: For Jim & Luis
	Greetings from NE FL for the new season. Great to see alot of the names from seasons past ( what's up, Frank P.!!), and I'm sure more will start peeking in. Just a note for anyone who want's a safe place to stay in a hurricane..... just move to Jacksonville. We are now on our 40th year since our last direct hit, Dora 64'. We have put a big bullseye in our backyard; we're hosting the Super Bowl this year. Let's see if that's a good thing....... My prediction for the season: 13-8-4. After weeks that seemed to strech into months, we got afternoon thunderstorms here today, the first of the summer. The grass already looks greener ( and taller). OK. I'm ready to start trashing the GFDL now.
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 12:21 AM	Did Steve really win?
	Just watched Joe B's tropical weather update...he mentioned that a Netherlands weather service was stating that (I'm paraphrasing here) "the remnants of the tropical storm that affected Hispaniola are now affecting Holland". Now, if NWS/NOAA/NHC doesn't classify it as a TS, then I guess it's not, but it's not just Joe B who felt last weeks system met TS parameters. Since I'm still banking on 6/14 for our first named TS, I'm not ready to concede yet.... But, NHC may yet call this system Alex. Of course, for the 2,000+ dead it really doesn't matter where they classify it or not, but I'm more than willing to give it the benefit of a doubt. In the event it remains nameless, well, I guess I can only hope for something in the gulf next weekend. But I'll be the first to tip my cap to Steve and say "he won" on this one. Cheers & Peace LIP Oh yeah, as long as the formerly quiet posters are checking in, one by one, two shouts out: Colleen & Shawn. Where are you guys? Be safe and sound!
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Wed Jun 02 2004 04:03 AM	Re: Did Steve really win?
	Lets hope for a less destructive but wet storm in the coming week. I will put up with a two hour power outage say at 5:00 pm during rush hour traffic in Downtown anywhere, Just so long as it is wet, I have grass seeds that think they heard a funeral march when I planted them.
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 07:29 AM	Re: Did Steve really win?
	Anyone notice the currently well organised area of disturbed weather just coming off the coast of Africa? Probably still far too early for any development, but it won't be that long until conditions are right to support tropical development.
JustMe (Weather Guru) Wed Jun 02 2004 11:23 AM	Re: Did Steve really win?
	HI Frank P was nice to see you back this year. We had the discussion last year re Camille. I too saw Betsy come across Mississippi and Louisana. I am ready this year as well. Will be interesting to say the least.. Been sharpening my pencils ... May do some serious tracking this year if all the pieces come together. my numbers are 11-5-3 ... Maybe should be higher but we will see. No suprises this year with an April storm .. I still belive June 29 will be our first one. Anyone know why the Atlantic is getting cooler now? ? Will that affect our storm season? Have a great day all
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 12:03 PM	Re: Did Steve really win?
	I didn't notice the Atlantic cooling. I thought it was on a warming trend. At least that's what this satellite loop has been telling me. Where are you looking? Sea temperatures loop
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Wed Jun 02 2004 12:40 PM	The Atlantic is cooling?
	https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif This anomaly map shows some cooling in the eastern atlantic but overall I dont think it is nothing out of the ordinary to see fluctuations up and down but if you see a trend one way or another then more attention has to be payed.For example the GOM was blue a few weeks ago but has started as the grafic shows to warm up.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 02 2004 01:27 PM	Re: The Atlantic is cooling?
	Good info Cyclone... Water temps along the beach in the Daytona area dropped this weekend (74 last weekend, 70 this weekend) apparently due to more of the upwelling we experienced last year. Michael
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 02:15 PM	The African Wave Train
	Take a look at this satellite pic . Notice how the clouds make a clear path right across South America and then up towards the gulf. Joe B. pointed this out and believes that some of the african waves will eventually make it all the way to the gulf with the potential for tropical mischief. It's really quite a remarkable graphic. LIP
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Wed Jun 02 2004 02:54 PM	Near term stuff...
	Nothing much going on right now. We're under an upper impulse with a nice "S" structure to it. Joe B put out a headsup for a potential rogue storm forming off of SC by Saturday night. Could be. He's not convinced, but raised the possibility. He thinks the system will die off a little today but then burst back toward the end of the week. You can see it pretty good in LI Phil's sat photo above. Water continues to warm in the Gulf and off the SE Coast relative to averages. SOI's been positive for all but one of the last 30 days (when it was -0.20). That should cut off any near-term warm impulses migrating eastward across the southern Pacific. NRL is showing two invests (93E for the EPAC and 91W in the WPAC west of the Philipines). NRL Home Page Steve
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 02:56 PM	Re: Near term stuff...
	Just to add a quick note to what Steve posted...Joe thinks the EPAC invest will develop into Blas (what the h--- kind of name is that?), which in turn he feels will lead to some possible tropical development in the GOM around June 10. For all in the Gulf, you need to be watching for this. LIP
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 03:10 PM	Re: Near term stuff...
	That invest does seem to be getting a little better organised, so perhaps it will become Blas (and I have to agree with you Phil - that is one weird name). Now we just have to wait and see whether Joe's theory pans out.
WxGal (Registered User) Wed Jun 02 2004 04:21 PM	Hey All!
	Well, it's that time of year again. Ya know, where we sit back, forecast the heck out of storms, argue about when the storm will turn, sometimes call each other names but mostly enjoy the heck out of each other. Since I have a new ISP I don't think my posts will be as high as last time, but that doesn't matter because whether or not I'm a "guru" or a "verified user" I'm still just a novice. The flare-up near Acapulco looks like it's getting a bit better organized. So, we'll all have something to practice with while we wait for some blob to try and form in our neck of the woods. As I am typing this, they just did a Emergency Broadcast Test which nearly caused me to go into cardiac arrest. This was not a good time for me. Okay, enough out of me. I would really like to see some rain. It's hotter than Hades here and the blue skies are getting just plain boring. Frank P.: Glad to see they let you out again this year. You must have been good. Colleen
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 04:32 PM	Colleen, now known as WxGal
	Shout out to Colleen, knew it wouldn't take you long to check back in
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 02 2004 04:42 PM	sorry phil.. i dont see it
	dont see that moisture trail.. do think its possible if some wave like the one that is still out there or later ones make it into the gulf they *could* make it up into the gulf later i think joe is dreaming of camille you know who here
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 02 2004 05:02 PM	Just Checking In!!!
	That is weird that Colleen decided to change to a different name because I wanted to do the same. So I decided to use SoonerShawn in honor of my beloved Oklahoma Sooners. At least the SW Caribbean is giving us something to look at for the first few days of the season. Glad to see all the regulars checking in and would like to send a special welcome to the newbies. I hope we will have much to talk about this season concerning the tropics but that we won't have to talk about the loss of lives and property. ShawnS
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 05:26 PM	Possible System
	This comes from accuweather and was probably contrubuted in part by JB: "One place to watch for possible development is the southeast coast of the U.S. later in the week. A disturbance tracking along an old frontal boundary across the southern states will fire up strong thunderstorms over land; it is possible that this system exits off the Southeast coast, and becomes an organized system, once it gets over the relatively warm waters for this time of the year." Shout out to Shawn...knew you & Colleen would be back!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 02 2004 06:10 PM	Re: Possible System
	Nice little MCS spin off is moving over the Ms. River mouth now....could Joe's spin up be in the Gulf instead?? Tornadoes in Sumter and Citrus counties--some damage in Citrus. I guess it really IS summer! sc
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 06:14 PM	Re: Possible System
	That system seems to be moving fairly fast - perhaps too fast for tropical development, but you never know.
rickonboat (Weather Hobbyist) Wed Jun 02 2004 08:01 PM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	Greetings all! I have moved from inland Mobile to the mouth of Dog River, and am living on a beautiful trawler....well, somewhat. anyhoo, with that comes an awareness that all I own can be destroyed. I will be looking with earnestness this year. Read an interesting thread on global warming in the latest Rolling Stone magazine. IT is definitely real. Wondering when a real noticeable uptick in hurricane intensity and amounts will be blamed on it. Enjoy this site and look forward to an interesting year... Rick
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 08:03 PM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	Welcome back Rick! So, now you DON'T want that CAT V sent towards Mobile? LI Phil
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 08:13 PM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	Probably a bit off topic, but I was looking at information about the possible El Nino development later this year, and I came across something interesting. Apparently, the SSTs off the coast of South Africa for April are bearing a reasonably strong similarity to those of April 1982. The 1982-83 El Nino was pretty bad, as there were only 5 named storms in '82 and 4 in '83. Of course it's too early to form any definite predictions, but it makes you wonder - will much be going on in 2005?
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 02 2004 08:16 PM	Interesting wave in Atlantic.. stubborn
	Hate to break up this love fest on the Gulf Coast and all but really think that the wave warrants a little attention. It's made it across as an entity and hung in there. Looking good and interesting today ...especially if you zoom it in and stop it on the last few frames. Not the most favorable environment its headed into but still... definitely fun watching. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 08:21 PM	Re: Interesting wave in Atlantic.. stubborn
	Your right - it's obviously quite tenacious and has done well to last so long for it being early June. Does anyone think that it could develop into something when (and if) it moves into a more favourable environment?
HanKFranK (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 09:31 PM	tick tick tick tick...
	nothing on the horizon. expect the eastpac invest won't have time to do any developing (coast proximity+36hrs to cooler water=little/no development). upper trough in the far western atlantic down into the western caribbean is going to keep things capped down there for the next few days. fairly energetic wave nearing 50w has no chance for this same reason.. another wave far to the east emerging indicates only that the itcz is undergoing its normal evolution this time of year.. fairly energetic waves that collapse once offshore except far to the south. since 2000 there have been a few june/july depressions out there.. claudette formed closer in last year, and danny was in the subtropics... too early at this point. i see the feature jb is eyeballing to move off the se over the weekend. doubt it will amount to much.. if it tries to bomb it will go extratropical.. upper trough will see to that. gfs is showing a divergent area in the western caribbean early next week as the trough reorients. low-mid level ridging is strong by that point.. should be shoving any disturbed weather westward by that point. about a week from now the nw caribbean/gulf should finally start becoming more favorable for development. ridging should be locking back in in the eastern u.s. by then... heat is down a notch to normal here in the carolinas right now.. the anomalous heat of may should be closer to normal for the next couple of weeks. thats my take right now anyhow. hey to everybody. might be a while before we get anything, but we'll manage in the meantime. HF 2130z02june
WxGal (Registered User) Wed Jun 02 2004 09:48 PM	Re: Colleen, now known as WxGal
	Hey guys....I honestly forgot what my name was last year, LOL! I better be careful what I wish for...about 3pm we had a storm hit us and boy was it a boomer!
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 02 2004 10:00 PM	Re: tick tick tick tick...
	Seems that we can't expect much in the tropics for now, but the season has begun, so something could happen in the next couple of weeks. Anyway, having to wait makes it all the more better and interesting when Alex does form
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 11:32 PM	Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
	Hey Ed, Since many of us have already submitted our "numbers" for the season and a few have called for where Alex will form and when, is there any way you can create a new forum which simply lists everyone's numbers and first storm dates? I think C-eye did that over on S2K, so it might work well here too. Thanks in advance. LIP PS I think I finally found an avatar that doesn't mess up everybody's screens
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Wed Jun 02 2004 11:37 PM	Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe? no
	Personally I dont think its a good idea.. I think maybe if people want they can put their guess in their profile so anyone can click on it ..if anyone cares. Or if anyone wants they can keep a list for themself and let us know who won at the end of the season. I only guessed numbers..not first storm, because i dont want to. And, personally I dont want this forum to be like 2k.. not sure who was first but think this one was.. and this board doesnt have to copy other boards. Its just fine. Been to 2k and its all cute and child like if you ask me.. looks like some Disney version for Dungeon and Dragon kids who are holding on to the dream. Lots of good posters, same posters that post everywhere.. how many boards can you post on at one time? And... seems to me its wrong to say "well they do it there" cause ..well... this isn't there, its here. And, personally I like here or I'd be there. Just my opinon Bobbi
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Wed Jun 02 2004 11:39 PM	Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
	Yes Phil that would be a good idea here and as you said I made a poll over there where more than 50 members are participating posting their forecast numbers and they are at the end trying to win a prize and did another poll asking when and where Alex will form.
LI Phil (User) Wed Jun 02 2004 11:49 PM	Re: Hey Ed...a new forum maybe?
	Hey Luis/C-Eye. I personally think your site was almost as good as this one...even though I couldn't logon. Bobbi...what's wrong with keeping dibs on our posters' numbers? It's all in fun anyway. I just think that when all is said and done, it would be nice to have a "one click access" to those who put their (cigarette) bu--s on the line. So what if you or I are wrong... Hey, it's up to Ed, (or John or Mike) to do it. Just personally think it's a neat idea. Ed...the ball is in your court
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:05 AM	Is the NHC site having problems?
	I am having some problems to access their site in the past few days but tonight they are having I think more problems as the evening discussion has not comed out as of 9:00 Pm EDT.Does anyone has had some problems accessing their site in recent days?
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:12 AM	Re: Finally, South Florida rains are near!
	Nice to finally look to the west and see some T-Storm build ups over the glades, but still not a drop at the coast, still hoping and waiting to see if the SW flow will push some over the coast during the next few days. Some of the local mets in Miami are saying that in past years when South Florida had a dry May, that corelates to a good chance of a hurricane hit on the Fl southest coast for later in the season, example 1992: Andrew.( just one ex.) I personally don't see the direct connection between dry May's and hurricane hits, could just be coincidence, but if someone here on this forum has a scientific explanation, your comments will be well appreciated. TG
Spike (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:18 AM	Re: Finally, South Florida rains are near!
	Yea, its starting to get exciting
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:22 AM	C-Eye takin' the high road
	Cyclone, not trying to start a war or anything, but... I have to admire you for taking the high road. If anyone called my website (not that I have one) "juvenile" with those "dungeons & dragons" references... well, I'd be a tad miffed. Kudos to you for ignoring it. Lois/Bobbi -- I'm not trying to dis you with these comments. I totaally respect your thoughts & opinions...just thought C-eye's compilations were pretty cool. We don't need any con-tro-versies this early in the season... PEACE! LIP
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:26 AM	Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
	Bobbi is old-school. I only catch her here or on jimw's site. Personally I love S2K. That's my #2 board. There are great mets and researchers that work through those threads. There's some fluff (affirmations and the like, and I'm guilt of that over there as well), but that comes with active posters. It's all good to me. Not everything is for everyone. Steve
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:27 AM	why cant...
	those of us who guessed put our guesses in our profiles i mean besides things like moutain climbing.. eating snickers and remote control surfer we could use our profiles for something useful and real just a thought anyway... more concerned with what happens than guesswork this year like to see the pattern emerge and the problem that busts the pattern, every year has one problem... low water temps, too strong winds pushing waves too fast, dust.. always something... waiting to see what that something is enjoy the evening bobbi
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:34 AM	Dudes & dudettes...
	Sorry I brought it up. C'mon, even if we agree to disagree, it's all in good fun here. OK (Sorry C-yey) this is the BEST weather chat site around. That's why we're all here. Don't want to make any enemies but want to give shouts out to the "other" weather sites. S2K is one of those, so are weather.com, accuweather.com, jimw's site and about 1 million more I could post. We're all here to learn and experience others' stories. In fact, that could be yet another forum..."personal experiences" I imagine posters like Frank P & Steve could fill pages with their own experiences... Alright, enough out of me. In the immotal words of Johnny Cochrane, "why can't we all just get along?" LIP
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:40 AM	Re: Is the NHC site having problems?
	I think the NHC site may be having issues also, there have been times when i could not access the site at all. Also the first TWO of the season was supposed to be issued at 5:30am on June 1, it was not issued until after 9am and yet still had a 5:30am issuance time. And there is still no 8:05pm update to the TWD. Not sure what is going on
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:40 AM	Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
	Well I am at CFHC because I like the discussions this board has when things begin to heat up in the tropics and I like to participate in them with my knowledge I have of tropical weather and for no other reason I am here.I am eagered to start to discuss about systems forming in the atlantic or in the GOM and I hope we wont wait too long to see Alex form.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 02:03 AM	Re: C-Eye takin' the high road
	As long as we're in a bit of a lull...C=eye, I have to ask you... You must be fluent in spanish? but your anglais is also awesome. Wish I was able to speak another language. Keep up your most awesome posts!!
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:29 AM	Some Guidance
	First, a sincere thank you to Cycloneye for his kind words. I don't care too much for the notion of downplaying another site, especially one that is not of a professional nature, because I know the hard work that it takes to keep a good balance between all of the users of the site and the time and thought that it takes just to develop a new thread of interest - and that can be really tough if there's not that much of anything interesting that's going on. I've visited Storm2K from time to time just to get the thoughts of Cycloneye or Barometer Bob or others. Some sites may be better than others in their content, but they ALL take hard work to maintain interest and to keep things on an even keel. Regarding new Forums, go back and read the by-line for the Storm Forum. I'd really like to see everybody use it for what it really was intended for. I started a thread that was my 2004 Forecast Update and urged you to put your own 'numbers' forecast in that thread by Saturday (or at least this weekend). Not only does this keep those forecasts in one place, it makes it a lot easier for me when I post a Summary at the end of the season and give credit to those who did a good job with their forecasts. Another thread in the Storm Forum has the title: First Storm of the Season - and thats the place that I'd like to see all of your individual 'guesstimates'. Its not that a new Forum could not be generated, its just that I'm not convinced that you would use it. Here is an example: In the past few threads their have been some great posts on past hurricanes. Some of these have been summaries from NHC and other sources and some have been accounts of personal experiences...and ALL of them really would have been ideal material for the Hurricane History Forum. Here's an example of why its important to put that stuff in the right place. This year we have gained many new registered users and other visitors. If I was moving south and east to the Atlantic or Gulf coast, and I wanted to learn more about hurricanes that may have made landfall in the coastal area that I was moving to AND I stumbled across CFHC in my internet search for this info, I'd see the Hurricane History Forum and pay it a visit - and I'd probably be disappointed because there is not too much material. Its all sprinkled throughout the Main News threads where in a matter of a few short months it is long forgotten - so please go back and copy some of that great stuff into the Hurricane History Forum. One new Forum that probably could be useful however would be an Other Weather Events forum - for comments on twisters and record temperatures, droughts, floods, etc. I'll have to see what Mike and John (and you) think about that. Finally, we've all now had our initial 'rush' as the new season has started with our (way too) many hellos to our familiar posting friends. I'm sure that some of you have noticed that I've done a little editing from time to time On the positive side, I am very pleased to see that you have included our new members in your welcoming remarks - there are times when you guys and gals are a real 'class act' - and I mean that! But I also think that its now time to get on with the business of watching and reporting on the tropical Atlantic basin. Help me out here, because I'd rather use my time for posting comments and answering questions rather than editing posts. One thing really has improved over the past few years, and thats the growing 'corporate knowledge' of the site. Now when a new question is asked or an explanation is sought, I don't often have to respond because the seasoned site veterans have already taken care of it - and Bettye really appreciates that because its less time that I have to be on the computer Thanks gang for all your help. Cheers, ED
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 07:40 AM	Re: Some Guidance
	An 'Other Weather Events Forum' would probably be quite cool, not to mention interesting. It would be useful when there is a lull in tropical activity - like now! On another note - have the rains arrived in Florida yet?
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 11:00 AM	Re: The 2004 Hurricane Season Starts Today
	On a personal note I want to welcome everyone to CFHC for the 2004 season. As most of you know I do not post that often in the forums but I do read them all. Everyone have fun and be safe. I will try post more often this year now that my busy life has settled down a bit. Thank you all for making CFHC what it is today. -John
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 12:43 PM	Gulf Next Week
	Local Mets here in SW Louisiana are hinting at some possible action next week in the gulf. Any thoughts?
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 01:31 PM	Re: Gulf Next Week
	I wouldn't be surprised - SSTs have warmed significantly in the last couple of weeks, so in that respect conditions are favourable. I guess we'll just have to wait and see if anything happens.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 02:57 PM	Re: Gulf Next Week
	>>Local Mets here in SW Louisiana are hinting at some possible action next week in the gulf. Any thoughts? That was what we were alluding to last week. Supposedly a trof split (in progress) will dump a piece down in the Gulf along with a slow Southerly or Southeasterly flow setting up in the Gulf around or just after the 10th. I haven't looked at the long range models in a few days, but the GFS ensembles did hint at some activity. It's more a concern for late next week or weekend, and the GFS had it in the eastern gulf (with an overdone ridge in central TX which has been speculated to be more into New Mexico. Lemme go see what the GFS is doing today: MRF/GFS 10 Day Surface Pressure + Precip Amounts Looks like the GFS is hinting at some action in both the western and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Whether that is deep tropical flow on both sides or a compromise for something more in the central gulf is debatable. Here is the link to the NCEP depiction of the GFS Operationals which go out to about 384 hours: GFS Operational Model
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:01 PM	Well Said Ed!
	Ed, Great post, as always. I'm certainly the most guilty of giving "shouts out" to our returning regulars. Also, probably a bad suggestion of mine to ask you to start a new forum...you're right...all the info is there if I actually took the time to look...maybe I'll do a "side" forum with that info in the future, as I probably have more free time than you to do that. Sorry for all the 'extra' posts...I'll make sure all my future ones deal ONLY with the weather. Last "shout" out: C-eye, for keeping it real and on the up and up. You're a class act dude, and your posts are always welcome (at least to me). As far as the potential development in the gulf next week...I'm about to log on to accuwx, I'll let you know if Joe B has anything further on that. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:15 PM	Invest 92L is up on the NRL
	Wow so early in the year for Africa. Oh well at least its something to watch.
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:16 PM	Re: Gulf Next Week
	Buon giorno Nothing to exciting on the sat pixs to indicate anything happening anytime soon, most of the thunderstorm activity right now all too close to land near the northern GOM and BOC and not very impressive at the moment either. So say we look at the models and what do they tell us… not much…. Here's a good link for those new to the site… http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ The PSU link from this site has not been updated since last year…. "Warning" relying on models to come to fruition can be hazardous to your mental and emotional well being, use with extreme caution" SSTs would support something minimal if anything were to develop, northern GOM temps running near 80 deg, west central GOM at 81 deg, east GOM a little higher at 82 deg… ciao
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:19 PM	Gulf Development
	Steve already covered it in his post above...Joe B's in Tejas at the moment, so he hasn't posted yet. I'll let you know when he does...but here's the latest from the "tropical" updates: "One place to watch for possible development is the southeast coast of the U.S. later in the week. A disturbance tracking along an old frontal boundary across the southern states will fire up strong thunderstorms over land; it is possible that this system exits off the Southeast coast, and becomes an organized system, once it gets over the relatively warm waters for this time of the year." Obviously still hinting at the southern system bombing out off the southeast coast this weekend, no thoughts on anything in the gulf...yet. As of yesterday, JB was thinking the EPAC invest would become Blas, and the teleconnections would place something in the gulf around 6/10. Bears watching... 11:30 update: Joe B's forecast was truncated as he's not at home or work and has limited access to data. Nothing on gulf development next week but still thinks the southern system may develop late Sat/Early Sunday.
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:35 PM	Re: Gulf Development
	Yeah LI Phip, a couple of the models I referred to in my earlier link shows that low pressure developing over land and then moving off the SE coast, somewhere north (models vary, some more north than others) of the NC coast, but the water temps right now are running 75 to 77 degrees in that area of the Atlantic, which is not ideal. This is not an area that is consider a climatological hot spot for early season tropical development… then again ....
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:41 PM	Re: Gulf Development
	I suppose it's not impossible for development to occur there - there are plenty of examples of storms developing over water temperatures that are less than ideal. Perhaps something minimal could develop there, but then you never know...
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:56 PM	Re: Gulf Development
	It would be "rogue storm" (hybrid) type of development where the core warms in relation to it's surroundings although they are too cold to harbor anything purely tropical. I need to go look at the PSU myself. Steve
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 03:57 PM	surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Not very impressive and pretty far south but here's the link http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 04:09 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Frank P, This is a surprising invest. South and just off the coast of Africa...in JUNE! Don't think they'll be sending in the recon anytime soon, but I suppose it bears watching. As far as "Alex", I'll put it about 15%. Anyone else want to take a shot at developement?
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 04:25 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	What do you think the chances are that it could make it across to the Caribbean and then develop?You said you put its chances of formation at 15%, but what if it reaches a more favourable environment? It may sound like a long shot but stranger things have happened.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 04:44 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Think it can make it across... my problem would be then what.. conditions are pretty hostile still at the door way to the Caribbean. Still the last one made it across.. didn't look this organized. Would think either way we might see some early Cape Verdes...from what we've seen so far. Once the water temps elevate just a drop..watch out. and btw... cyclone.. sorry if i said something when annoyed which could have been taken wrong.. know everyonel puts a lot of effort in their sites and respect that. I just liked it better when there was a bit more diversity in the sites and that's an offboard issue. Also... as Steve so well put. We all like different things and feel more at home different places... boards, etc. Also... would like to see some sites people enjoy who live in places like New Orleans, Houston (neil frank), the Cape Hatteras area.. would be nice to see what everyone here enjoys on a local level .. and which mets they enjoy locally. Maybe thats a topic for another board here vs news. take care bobbi
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 05:02 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	I agree with Lois, think it'll make it across the Atl for awhile before it hits a more hosite environment. As far chances of development, maybe 20% at best. Anyway it's still interesting to see the East Atl being a lot more active this year than at this time last year because of all the dry air that was entrenched for so long. AJ
MoparMitch (Weather Watcher) Thu Jun 03 2004 05:16 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	I am also VERY impressed with this little system. What is just as impressive are the waves coming of the African coast, especially this early in the season. I actually think this has about 35% chance of developing, if the environment maintains itself, which it should for about another day or so. Past that, it will be knocking on the Caribbean’s doorstep, where if anything does develop, will be torn to shreds. What would be REALLY interesting to see if this system takes a more northerly track, where the westerlies may not have such an influence on it, but then again the water temps may not support much at this time. All in all, very interesting and a prelude for things to come. mitch...
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 05:30 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Wasn't it about this time last year that the CV season got started with Tropical Depression 2? I'm not saying that this wil happen this year, but this little system certainly bears a look every now and then - perhaps it will get a brief mention in the 5:30pm weather outlook. On another note, the system in the East Pacific has not made any progress, and the weather outlook says "THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW." Looks like it will be a little longer before Blas forms, and Joe B's earlier prediction may take a little longer to pan out.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 05:48 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Something is wrong with 92L. It's a pacific storm. The vis. sat shows it off mexico and the lat/long is also in the Pacific.
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 03 2004 06:10 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	I disagree, this is in the far eastern Atlantic. You can also see the cloud formation of this system using the NASA Meteosat 7 view, link below. And it sure looks like the west coast of Africa as the nearest land mass.... there is a system in the EPAC off Central America, and its convection is much more impressive than this one 92L... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/metsat7ir.html
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 06:10 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	Well spotted! I feel stupid - how did I miss that?! Shouldn't it be 92E? At least there is an invest somewhere. Right?
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 06:19 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	92L is clearly in the eastern atlantic as the latitud 8.0 n-21.5w shows up where you put the mouse at the pic.Very interesting this invest and a surprise one as I was away from the internet this morning.Let's see if some models jump on it later on.
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 06:23 PM	Re: surprise 92L is up for the Atlantic
	I stand corrected. I didn't check the latitiude etc.. Thanks for clearing that one up.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 06:45 PM	92L is clearly off the African coast
	Here's a better sat/ir image of 92L It doesn't look all that impressive, but you can clearly see it is off the coast of Africa. Compare this to the two WestPac systems. Might there be teleconnections? If so, if this does develop, will it simply spin the fishes? Don't think it's gonna make it across the pond to the Islands & Gulf. from the HurricaneAlley
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 03 2004 07:08 PM	make it across the Atlantic?
	After watching it this afternoon I'm amazed they did an invest. Not a lot to write home about.. thought the one before it looked better and like that mess over Africa still. Wonder what parameters NRL has before making an invest. Does anyone know?
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 07:31 PM	Invest Criteria
	Information on this is quite difficult to find, but I did find something. A system with a statement of central pressure is often assigned an invest. I don't know how useful this is, or even if it is completely correct, but it seems to be one of the criteria needed. Note that the invest in the E. Pacific has a low of 1008mb associated with it. I'm sure there are other things needed to designate a system an invest, but this seems to be one of them.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 08:28 PM	Retired Names
	This subject came up a while back...retiring names of storms. In 2007 Allison, Iris and Michelle will be replaced by Andrea, Ingrid and Melissa. In 2008 Ike and Laura will replace Isidore and Lili. In 2009 Fred, Ida and Joaquin will replace Fabian, Isabel and Juan.
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 08:31 PM	Re: Retired Names
	Where did you get those names? I've checked the NHC website and they have left the names unchanged. Could you possibly provide a web link?
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 08:37 PM	Re: Retired Names
	There are a bunch of places to get the info, but here's the first link I found: http://www.weathermatrix.net/archive/tropical/summaries/0023.html
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 08:45 PM	Re: Retired Names
	Thanks! I don't understand why the NHC doesn't have this on their website, but it makes sense that these names should have been retired. Since when did a hurricane that caused $3.37billion in damage (cashing in at the 4th most expensive hurricane in the US), the worst hurricane to hit Bermuda in over 70 years, and Halifax's worst storm in modern history not get their names retired? Fred surprises me as a choice, because it is a very similar name to Frederic in '79. I thought they would choose something a little more different, but then I suppose that there are only so many names that begin with 'F'. Joaquin's a name I've never heard before. Still, I suppose we should focus on the coming year, some good names there.
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:29 PM	No mention of 92L in the TWO
	The NHC apparently does not consider 92L that important as there is no mention of it in the 5:30pm TWO. Maybe 10:30 update will give it a mention. I am also having trouble accessing NRL, anyone else having the same problem?
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:36 PM	NRL
	I haven't been able to get on NRL all day.
Storm Cooper (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:40 PM	Re: No mention of 92L in the TWO
	No access since this AM. The NRL site seems to have it's problems every season.
Storm Cooper (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:43 PM	Re: No mention of 92L in the TWO
	http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi You can go this route to NRL so far.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:46 PM	Hey Coop
	That link didn't work either
Storm Cooper (User) Thu Jun 03 2004 09:50 PM	Re: Hey Coop
	Sorry... it did just before I posted it but not now... the Invest was still there then.
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 03 2004 10:13 PM	Re: Hey Coop
	Has anyone else had trouble accessing the National Hurricane Centre website? Every so often it won't open, and then a couple of hours later it is working fine.
hurricane_run (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 03 2004 10:39 PM	Re: Hey Coop
	thats been happenig to me for the last couple of days. i cant get anywhere near it. then i try back later and i get there fine
Storm Cooper (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:46 AM	Re: Hey Coop
	I also had a little trouble w/ NHC but can access NRL again showing the Invest.... not much but a little flare up exiting the coast.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:54 AM	Invest & Weekend Weather
	Take a look at this full basin shot of the Atlantic: full basin view Check out that huge wave about to exit Africa. Wonder if that will amount to anything...I know Dr. Gray has discounted the West Sahel connection, but it has been extremely wet. Could portend for a more active season. Looks like Joe B is right with his prediction that the southern storm will bomb out up the coast. Whereas my weather forecast up until this afternoon was for bright & sunny skies on Saturday (I'm going to the Belmont Stakes-Go Smarty Go), now it's supposed to be rainy and cold. Who says he doesn't catch things days in advance? I'm not happy about it, but it was good to have the heads-up on Tuesday.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Fri Jun 04 2004 01:27 AM	Re: Invests
	Perhaps I can help a little with this one. I'm probably giving away a little meteorological trade secret, but I'm sure that may of you might find it to be a useful piece of info. The NHC coordinates with many other meteorological agencies in this country and with other met organizations in other countries as well. When an area of interest is noted in the Atlantic (and east Pacific) basin, NHC asks NRL to start an Invest on the area of interest and NHC also provides NRL with the centerpoint coordinates (lat/long) for the area. In this case, the area of interest does seem to have a small center of circulation (tropical low) associated with it - which means that it could have some future potential. Remember, many Invest areas don't amount to anything and the Invest is dropped after a day or three. However, if something does eventually develop, the NHC will have an early 'track' record on the system to aid in future projections. Often a tropical low may be so weak that it is not picked up by the more globally oriented models, so the Invest 'track' gives the NHC a head start toward a forecast for future movement. Many tropical meteorologists use this technique (myself included). As the system moves toward the 'edge' of the Invest area, a new set of coordinates are sent to NRL - and this can be annoying when a time-lapse sequence of the system seems to 'jump' to a new location halfway through the loop. NHC also advises NRL (and other agencies) in advance when they intend to upgrade the Invest to a Tropical Depression (NONAME) or from a TD to a named system (Tropical Storm). Sometimes NRL will upgrade their tropical site to reflect these changes before the NHC has issed the upgrade bulletin - which lets meteorologists know (TWC, Jason, ED, etc.) that a change is forthcoming There are many other factors which may prompt an Invest, but sometimes its just a desire to take a closer look at an area of interest. Hope this helps. I also have observed some downtime on both the NHC and NRL sites (especially NRL) in the past couple of days. At 04/00Z the tropical low was near 8.5N 23W. When you enlarge the thumbnail image from NRL, make sure that you look at the timestamp of the image. Often, the enlarged thumbnail will be an image that is more current than the small thumbnail or the full screen enlarged view. Cheers, ED
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 01:32 AM	That was a mouthful ED
	Ed, Thanks for the info on invests. I spent the better part of an hour today trying to find the answer and was stymied. I figured you or Jason or C-Eye would have the answer. With that being said, what would you rate the chances on this Invest developing into anything?
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Fri Jun 04 2004 01:45 AM	Re: That was a mouthful ED
	Actually, the chances are rather slim - but I learned long ago that anything is possible when it comes to tropical systems. Its still early in the season and the environment closer to the Caribbean is still pretty hostile. Cheers, ED
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 01:47 AM	Re: Invests
	Ed that was a complete explanation about how the invests are up and how it works.About this 92L invest the discussion says significant wave that caused 4-5 mb pressure drops in western Africa and that is interesting.Let's see what happens with it but I dont see anthing developing from it however regardless what happens it shows that we may be seeing an active Cape Verde season comming late July,August and September.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Fri Jun 04 2004 02:06 AM	The Cape Verde Season
	I think that you may be right - we may be seeing early signs of a more active Cape Verde season. A few months ago I had mixed feelings about that, however, Africa has become quite active in just the past couple of weeks. Most of the waves over Africa are still a bit too far south - generally below 10N. Another 5 degrees further north on these and I'll really start to pay attention, however, I am keeping a close eye on the developing wave over Africa near 13N 32E. It will be interesting to see how it evolves as it crosses Africa during the next week. Cheers, ED
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 02:16 AM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	Yes ED that one looks impressive inside Africa but let's see when it hits the water what it will do but probably will weaken however again an active CV season in on the making?
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 02:21 AM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	Agree with Ed that these waves are probably too low to amount to anything, but check out the absolute monster poised to exit the coast: african wave
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Fri Jun 04 2004 02:28 AM	Thanks Ed...understand better.
	Thanks. I had heard something like that once..but I was never sure how much was true. About requests from NHC. Makes more sense and helps to understand the noname change just prior to upgrade that almost always is relied on round here as Gospel. Anyway...thanks. As for the positioning of the invest..maybe they should just leave it there.. one will most likely take. New one is awesome. And... notice its really not so low.. just in position. Remember years back Dr. Hope would always make a big deal about Senegal and the beach .. Dakaar and waiting for waves to roll across that spot before they are viable and they are really pretty much there already .. in early June. Makes you remember those storms like Donna an a few in 1995/96 that were spinning wildly as they came off the African Coast. thanks Bobbi
HanKFranK (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 03:04 AM	Re: Thanks Ed...understand better.
	hmm... nice info there ed. i thought nrl worked more independently of nhc.. i can recall at least one instance where nrl numbered a depression and nhc never followed up... must have been a sudden change of opinion in that case. energetic waves in june have in recent years spawned the odd tropical depression (2000, 2003). scatterometer data suggested that both actually crossed the tropical storm threshold, but nhc is less interested in naming transient systems that may/may not be and will most likely open back up when they hit a pocket of shear... can't say i blame them. 92L has the look to me of one of those systems that falls to bits within 36hrs off the coast. maybe we'll get another odd invest with a follow-on wave. same result unless the itcz and subtropical ridge buck up a bit more to the north. bastardi's rogue system looks like one of those late season wannabe noreasters, more-so than a semi-tropical one. newer modeling has it moving more poleward, staying more onshore, and phasing in with a shortwave.. not a develpment scenario. best chance right now for something is what steve alluded to. a week from now in the gulf. upper flow realigns, creates some good divergence.. any low level energy that happens by finds a good environment.. typical story. details iffy, of course. HF 0304z04june
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Fri Jun 04 2004 03:29 AM	NRL/NHC
	I think that its fair to say that NRL actually is autonomous, but they work closely with NHC, CPHC. JTWC, etc., so that everybody can be on the same page. They (and JTWC) have a big responsibility for our military ships at sea - and thats a lot of oceans! Cheers, ED
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 07:25 AM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	Looks that that wave is already falling apart over water. I guess it is just too early. East Atlantic satellite
Spike (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 08:54 AM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	Yea. It seems like it fell apart quite a bit ealier.
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:04 PM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	I suppose we shouldn't forget that sea temperatures are an important contributor to an active CV season. The SSTs in the Eastern Atlantic have been falling for a couple of days now. On Wednesday Cycloneye said that you need to pay attention to trends in temperature - could this cooling be a new trend or do fluctuations like this occur normally?
joepub1 (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:19 PM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	Not much to look at this morning, really only two areas of interest. The CV season is still a month away if you ask me, but I agree the waves are showing alot of energy for this time of the year, even if they are still a little too far south. It looks like their could be some long trackers this year. The other is south of PR; one wave has survived the trip across somewhat intact and will be south of Jamaica in two or three days. If I had to point at any area and say maybe something will happen, that would be the one. It at least might provide some energy to stir the pot early-mid next week in the gulf. On a local note, we've had 3-5 inches of rain arcoss NE Fl in the first three days of June, easing the very dry and hot weather we were stuck in. Should return to a more normal mode by Monday, but may start picking back up by the end of next week, so says the NWS at Jax. Enjoy your day Joepub1
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:34 PM	Re: The Cape Verde Season
	I agree with your opinion that the CV season is still a month away. They can form early - remember Bertha in 1996 (which formed on July 5th). If the waves that keep emerging from Africa keep their strength up for a few more months, it could be a very interesting season... I can't help but think of 1995 - 5 CV hurricanes - could something similar be in store for this year?
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Fri Jun 04 2004 12:44 PM	caribbean wave
	It's a great wave.. made it across the wind shear zone and sprung back a bit to life. Been waiting to see if it makes it to the favorable area for this time of year....its almost there. Been watching this wave for days.. not many this tenacious. Some waves seem to be "rooted" more than others... they pulse up and down and almost go away but there is something that "sticks" and keeps connected til they are in a better spot. For instance.. many sources describe Camille as a storm that came out of a Cape Verde wave though most sites don't show it as traveling that far. I've seen the tracks done both ways.. things go a long way sometimes and don't form until they get half way til where they are going. Don't see any Camilles on this weeks horizon.. just a comment. CV... have two things to say.. 1.. water temps arent there yet 2.. watch the SAL sites... there is dust out there though not as bad as some years..this is all part of the recipe out there every year... but there is a pocket of dry air that the waves have to traverse (a drop north of the waves) and still .. temps are not high enough to keep the fire on to keep them boiling.. takes a lot to get one of those cape verde beauties, doesn't it? have a great weekend everyone Bobbi
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 03:23 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Not much new from Joe B. He's still keen on development in the Gulf on or after June 10. "A fairly strong tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic, along 25 west, south of 15 north, moving west. The tropical wave along 64 west, south of 17 north will continue west, and bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern Caribbean islands in the next 24-48 hours. A tropical wave is located along 94 west, south of 17 north; it is this system that is producing the large amount of convection, or thunderstorms, in the eastern Pacific." from Accuwx tropical summary. Looks like those African waves are just too far south to amount to anything, but they sure do keep trying. Likes like C-eye may be getting some more rains in the next couple of days. Hope you don't if you don't need them. Cheers & Peace, LIP
Storm Cooper (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 04:27 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	It's early but the 12Z CMC run tries to get a little something going in Gulf in a few days. Lets see if the others follow
stormchazer (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 04:59 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Now the Models are chiming in on a possible GOM system. It is that time of year and there is consistency in that thought what with SSTs, Climatology, Bastardi and now Models all sensing something. The energy is obviously in place as we got slammed here in Central FL yesterday. I'll spend the weekend cleaning up tree limbs and watching the Gulf. We needed rain but not all in 1 hours time. Take care.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 05:17 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Cooper do you have a link to that CMC run? Let's see if what many people are saying about some development in the GOM by next week comes thru but the wave located now in the eastern caribbean is the one to watch in comming days if it survives the trajectory thru the caribbean.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 05:19 PM	GFS
	The 18ZJun14 GFS model places somethiing just off the coast of Southwest Florida...which then moves it across the peninsula and bombs it up the NE coast. I'll post the link from accuweather pro, but not sure if non-registrants will be able to access it. If you can't, other sites have the GFS modeling. http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mt=06&mod=AVN&mv0=apcpsfc&cap=MSLP,%206-Hour%20Precip,%20and%201000-500mb%20Thickness&hr=LOOP&step=2&gs=mslp_pcp_thk&uid=&map=conus&gv0=A
Storm Cooper (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 05:23 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 05:27 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Thanks my friend.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 04 2004 05:34 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	I don't see any bombs, or anything in the Gulf?? sc
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 06:03 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Nothing there at the moment, but I reckon it can support something. As Stormchazer said, the energy is obviously in place. SSTs have increased significantly in the last few weeks, and there seems to be a decent amount of moisture there. All we need is a system to survive the unfavourable conditions elsewhere and break through into here. Perhaps that tenacious wave in the Caribbean will...
Storm Cooper (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 06:54 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	The 12Z AVN/GFS is looking like the CMC w/ something possible in the GOM in a few...
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 07:20 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	While the focus over the next few days will be on the GOM and Caribbean, cast a look to the east. After commenting on the unusually strong waves coming off of Africa, it looks like things there may be slowing down temporarily. There doesn't seem to be anything special poised to emerge into the Atlantic. Perhaps just a temporary lapse.
Spike (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 07:31 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	It doesnt seem to be anything special... but with weather you never know. Weather can be very unpredictable.
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 04 2004 07:33 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	That's what makes it interesting! Looks like the E. Pacific disturbance hasn't amounted to much (yet). That's something to watch over the weekend.
Spike (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 07:39 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	Yea. We should keep an eye on that. And yes hehe that is what makes it very interesting and exciting!
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 10:34 PM	More African Waves...
	Man, these African waves never stop...three more about to exit the coast. As with the others, they probably won't amount to much, but you have to wonder if this portending an early start to the CV season, and an active one to boot. more african waves
hurricane_run (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 10:36 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	there still some time for that e pac disbance well see wont we
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 04 2004 10:53 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	hurricane run you need to use spell check and/or grammar check
hurricane_run (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 04 2004 10:57 PM	Re: caribbean wave
	sorry i type to fast and i have slight dyslexia. (its gotten much better with profesional help) once again sorry
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 11:22 PM	Waves and waves...
	HR, It's cool. It's just that in the past there have been several posters (some of whom I think are now banned) who posted somewhat incoherently. Just makes them harder to read. Earlier Bobbi/Lois made mention of Camille being a wave that drifted across the pond from Africa. Checked a couple of tracking sites that indeed showed Camille only being recognized as a TS just south of Cuba. So I did a little digging and found out that it was indeed a CV hurricane, it is just that with the primitive tracking available back then, no one really noticed it's trajectory. Here's a somewhat interesting first hand account of the storm: "First noticed as a tropical disturbance off the coast of Africa in early August, Camille's beginnings were rather unremarkable. For the next several days, the disturbance became more and more organized, prompting the Air Force to send a reconnaissance plane in to investigate on August 14th. Enter Tropical Storm Camille in the western Caribbean. But Camille didn't remain a tropical storm for long. It continued to intensify, reaching hurricane strength the following day. Located 60 miles southeast of Cape San Antonio, Cuba, Camille's winds reached 115 mph. On August 15th, Camille claimed her first 3 victims as it struck Cuba. It dropped 10 inches of rain on the western end of the island with winds gusting over 100 mph. On August 16th, another Air Force reconnaissance team flew into the eye of the hurricane. The information they radioed back to the National Hurricane Center sent chills up the spines of the forcasters. Camille was now a Category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of 160 mph. There was no question the monster storm would strike the Gulf Coast of the United States. The only question was where?" There's much more of course, but the point is that these waves, particularly later in the season, must be watched. Not every one needs an Invest, but still, Camille was an example of a long tracker that literally "stayed below the radar screen." I'm wondering if there are more such storms that only got organized much closer to the US but were really "born" much farther east? LI Phil
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Fri Jun 04 2004 11:40 PM	low trackers like Camille
	I'm sure many of those storms that formed close in came in under the radar so to speak..or there was no radar. I mean.. do we know where the 1935 storm that came out of nowhere..from a small tropical storm blew up magically? More a case with old storms that if a storm formed in a forest where there was no one... no one knew til it was on top of them. Have my own thoughts on the 1935 storm but thats for another day. As for Camille... actually pretty common I would say for an early wave which it was to make it in another pond. If they sent in recon in the Western Carib on 8/14 one would have to imagine it came off Africa several days earlier.. a week earlier would be 8/7 which is way before Peak of the Season or prime time for Cape Verde Storms. Of course they do form earlier than Sept ... Donna would have rolled off late in August as she came to Miami early September.. but I believe Donna formed far out there. Sometimes I guess storms just sneak up on you. Think to ask Ed or Hank what the numbers say as to where storms BOMB out or up whatever the phrase is fastest. Have heard they have a tendency to do that in the W. Carib (Gilbert, Allen, Camille, Mitch) more so than other areas.. but not sure. Anyway...have a great weekend. Anyone gets a chance go to Neil Frank's website in Houston and read the history article.. done a few years back, great hurricane reading. Hurricane's touched that man in such a deep personal way as opposed to a scientific observer. Soupy summery weather here btw in Miami.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 04 2004 11:58 PM	Re: low trackers like Camille
	Just a quick note on the subject then I'm done. Here's some more on Camille: "Camille formed near the island of Grand Cayman in the Caribbean on August 14 from a tropical wave that had been tracked from the African coast where it emerged on August 5. " (from CHC - Canadian Hurricane Centre) "Camille started as a tropical wave that moved off Africa on the 5th but did not get organized until she reached the Caribbean Sea" (from Midwest Hurricane Center) "She was born on August 5, 1969, like so many of her Atlantic predecessors, a modest tropical wave off the western coast of northern Africa. Over the course of the next several days, the as-yet unnamed system migrated across the Atlantic, its barometric pressure gradually dropping, its winds increasing. " (from Disasterrelief.org) "The course taken by the storm was a small tropical wave on August 5, 1969, off the African coast to its landfall at 10:30 p.m. on August 17 with top winds over 200 mph and having inundated Pass Christian with its highest recorded flood surge of 24 feet." (personal account) There are many many more, of course, but all y'all get the idea. Lets just hope we don't see anything like Camille ever again, in Pass Christian or anywhere else in the gulf. LI Phil (yes, Ed, I know this belongs in the Hurricane History forum, but as you so eloquently put it yesterday, nobody puts their posts in the appropriate forums. Feel free to move it there if you so desire. It's where it belongs)
Spike (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 12:29 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	LI Phil what causes these waves to form so easily and fast off the coast of africa?
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 12:40 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	Well, Spike, the short answer is climatology. I'm sure Ed, Jason, Steve, HanKFranK or Scottsvb (or C-Eye) could elaborate a bit more, if they so desire. But really, it's just cyclical weather patterns. We're in a very "wet" period for West Africa...
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 12:59 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	The monsoon trough in the Indian Ocean is one of the causes that help those waves to move from the Indian Ocean into Africa and if that trough gets into Africa strong enough then the waves will be pretty big as they move thru the African continent and later they exit the west coast.But I know that there are more reasons for tropical waves to be active in Africa but I only gave one reason that causes them to be quite active.I think that there are other reasons however I know that soon enough someone will post about it.
Storm Cooper (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 01:01 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	I agree... and also the 18Z AVN/GFS is interesting...... possibly a little over done but interesting.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Sat Jun 05 2004 01:14 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	Nope - not this time - at least not from me. The real answer to that question would take a full course in Meteorology to properly answer. My best advice is to treat your desire for more knowledge on the subject of weather - like the old adage about eating an elephant - one bite at a time (and small bites at that). My own personal knowledge of Meteorology has taken over 52 years to acquire - and that elephant has hardly a scratch on it For LI Phil: Yeah - probably in the wrong place - but it was relevant to the discussion. Cheers, ED
clyde w. (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 01:34 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	I remember that in the last few years we talked about the subsidence off the coast of Africa in June and July -- even remember a couple of massive dust storms and the like. Even though the waves this year are still struggling to some extent, I find it very interesting that there seems to be a somewhat friendlier environment so far this year than in years past (June 2003 was a bit of an exception), as it relates to atmospheric moisture, both over Western Africa and the Eastern Atlantic. Something to keep in mind...
hurricane_run (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 02:13 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	that is somthing to think about. what do you think it will do to this season. A possible factor in it being more active?
clyde w. (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 02:24 AM	Re: More African Waves...
	Hard to tell..may mean nothing at all in the end. We've had a number of active Cape Verde seasons even when the early part of the season was not environmentally friendly, so my guess is that this will enhance it slightly, perhaps we'll see an early July Cape Verde storm, like Bertha in '96. In fact, I never put my prediction out for first named storm so I'll throw July 4th out there--forming east of the Lesser Antilles...good as any. I think the fact that the QBO (sorry I know what it stands for but can't spell it for the life of me) has gone westerly will be the most telling for those storms that form off Africa. It is a big enhancing influence on hurricanes when the winds are from the west. Perhaps one of the experts could give more insight on why this is the case? I just know that when you line it up with climatology, it is certainly a fact.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Sat Jun 05 2004 03:48 AM	Notice to all CFHC Users
	When the Everything & Nothing Forum was created, the intent was to provide a place to make an occasional post that would not otherwise be appropriate in any of the specialized tropical discussion forums. There was no intent for the E&N Forum to become the primary discussion forum on this site. Since the E&N Forum was rapidly becoming a Chat Room, I have decided that it is in the best interest of the site to close down the Everything & Nothing Forum for a few days so that we can all get back to the primary focus of this site which is tropical weather discussion. My thanks to those of you that brought this to my attention. No reply to this post is necessary. If you wish to comment, send me a PM. Ed Dunham CFHC Moderator
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jun 05 2004 10:33 AM	Toll of dead, missing tops 3,300 from devastating Caribbean floods
	Toll of dead, missing tops 3,300 from devastating Caribbean floods Fri Jun 4,11:31 PM ET PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) - The toll of dead and missing from floods that ravaged parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic was set at more than 3,300 on Friday as aid workers reached the most remote areas. In Haiti, the official death toll was at 1,191 and the number of missing at 1,484. The figures on the Dominican side of the border were 395 dead and 274 missing. That brought the overall toll to at least 3,344 from flooding caused by days of rains that unleashed torrents of water and mudslides on the border area of Hispaniola island nearly two weeks ago. The new official figures totalling 1,586 confirmed dead in both countries is lower than the 1,700 reported earlier, a figure based on accounts by the government, witnesses and journalists. "The death toll is higher than expected, and surely it will continue to rise," said Marko Kokic, a representative of the International Federation of Red Cross Services. Aid workers said hundreds of victims washed away in floodwaters or buried in mudslides will probably never be found. Red Cross workers found 17 bodies Thursday as they took a boat through the southern Haitian town of Mapou, still submerged following the May 24 floods. Many decomposing corpses were hurriedly buried in mass graves and wherever they were found - some before they could be counted, Dominican Emergency Commission chief Radhames Lora Salcedo said. Officials said the floods damaged or destroyed thousands of homes on both sides of the border. Crops were washed away along with numerous livestock. Among the living, thousands remain in desperate need. Haiti's Civil Protection Agency estimated 31,000 Haitians were affected by one of the worst natural disasters to strike the Caribbean. The Red Cross said more than 6,000 families need food and shelter between the hardest-hit Haitians towns of Mapou and Fond Verrettes, about 20 kilometres apart.
Frank P (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sat Jun 05 2004 12:35 PM	Early morning obs....
	Interesting blob of convection down in the SW Caribbean coming off the coast of South America this am, no organization but some intense IR convection noted. The system is drifting off to the NW and gives us something to watch during the weekend. 92L, Thursdays surprise invest, appears to have fallen off the map and should not be a factor for any development, which is apropos for something this early in the season. What does have my attention, and it’s a long shot no doubt, is the complex thunderstorm activity in the TX/OK area, migrating southward towards the GOM. Although its intensity has diminished a tad over the past several hours, daytime heating should crank things up again today… And if it holds together into long enough to make it to the GOM, and then becomes stationary over water, and starts to organize ….. then it could be our first scenario for any GOM development … within the next several days or so…. Be like betting against Smarty Jones losing today for any of these systems to come to fruition... then again
joepub1 (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 03:49 PM	Re: Early morning obs....
	Morning Frank! A note about the Texas rains.... their might be a mid to upper level low (a small one at that) just to the west of Fort Worth that will help that rain get going again today. Pressures are dropping just a tad bit in the Dallas area. There is one back further to the west for sure in the Arz. region. The early rader did kinda show the rains moving in two directions this morning, with the axis drifting SE. Now whether it ever reaches the gulf, I don't have a clue, if it's even there. But the area between you and the Tex. coast is in good shape for possible development, and maybe some extended showers over the water might start something. Frank P., check out the Storm Forum for my on-the-cuttingedge prediction for Florida and the hurricane season. You might be the one person would get a he-he out of it. Hey, I backed it up with stats that are hard to argue with. Joepub1
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 05 2004 04:57 PM	Re: Early morning obs....
	That system definetely bears watching over the next few days. Note also the convection firing off in the south-west Caribbean Sea. I'm not saying it will develop, but it's something else to watch. Has anyone noticed the disturbance in the E. Pac. It looks quite a bit better organised than yesterday - maybe it could develop into Blas...but who knows?
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 05:35 PM	the near future
	the sw caribbean does have a decent convective burst going on.. but low cloud movements don't have me thinking anything will get going with it. no real turning visible, just the log-jam look waves frequently get in that corner of the caribbean. still sketchy model rumblings for a gulf/nw caribbean system in a few days.. as there were rumblings for something right now a week and a half ago. the medium range forecast models haven't been as consistent as with the late may disturbance that killed all those people in hispaniola, so their future existence is a dubious notion for now. i have a feeling that mjo is switched off right now, based on how convection is behaving in the basin. can't remember where that graphical loop showing it is.. just a hunch. there's westpac development right now.. usually means that we'll get an potential activity window in ten to twenty days on this side. that may, conveniently, coincide with model projected activity. HF 1736z05june
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 05 2004 06:07 PM	Re: the near future
	For the 3rd day, temperatures in the East Atlantic have continued to fall. Now it looks as though this may be about to move into the central Atlantic. Does anyone have any thoughts or opinions on this, or whether it will affect the hurricane season? SSTs loop
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 06:27 PM	Re: the near future
	you may want to wait a couple or three weeks before becoming alarmed at sst changes. keep in mind that merely a month ago people were talking about a dead gulf year due to below average ssts.. they have completely reversed in that time. i wouldn't consider less than 2C sst anomalies in the east atlantic as a storm count-changing variable anyway.. the extent of 25-27C waters and how quickly temps reach that threshold tends to matter more than whether you have pockets of heat anomalies out there (remember the huge area in 1995 and all the east atlantic early recurvatures). sst anomalies tend to affect your storm count more in the mid-latitudes.. where you get hybrid storms and storms that retain intensity to higher latitudes than otherwise. and off the u.s. east coast sst anomalies have been consistently above average for recent years (though cool pockets are apparent near the canadian maritimes). the big factors to look for that will dominate storm formation patterns/numbers this season: 1) the multidecadal upswing 2) mjo waves/SOI 3) tropical pacific water profile (neutral.. cool 1/2, warm 3/4) 4) gulf stream/western north atlantic +sst anomalies 5) SAL in mid-late summer for movement of systems, probably: 1) mean ridge strength, position, wavelength 2) NAO! timing of east coast troughs 3) TUTT intensity into the late summer 4) incidental strength of trade winds 5) east atlantic water profiles (mean strengthening rate, tendency to recurve early) all of these are in one way or another connected to #1
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 06:28 PM	oh yeah..
	that's hopefully opinion based on fact.. or the tendency of these things to drive the train in recent years.. HF 1828z05june
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:30 PM	Re: Notice to all CFHC Users
	>>>Since the E&N Forum was rapidly becoming a Chat Room, I have decided that it is in the best interest of the site to close down the Everything & Nothing Forum for a few days so that we can all get back to the primary focus of this site which is tropical weather discussion. Well said Ed. That's what the PM feature is for. It's great to see that some of our newer members are young and enthusiastic...but like you said, this is first and foremost a fantastic site to enrich our knowledge of the weather, especially hurricanes. I'd been "lurking" on these boards since before Floyd, but I didn't start posting until last year. Some of our newer members might want to browse through the past few years of posts to get an idea of the type of content that is presented here. That being said, I've learned more from ED, HF, JK, Steve, C-Eye, Frank P., Colleen, Joepub, Cat V Rick, Rich, Steve H., Coop, bobbi, scottsvb et. al. (I know I'm forgetting a few) than I could ever learn simply by watching the Weather Channel. This is a great place to gain great weather knowledge! Thanks Ed, Mike & John for availing CFHC to all! Peace & Cheers, LI Phil
clyde w. (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:33 PM	Re: oh yeah..
	HankFrank--followed everything above except SAL. What does that stand for?
WxGal (Registered User) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:33 PM	Re: oh yeah..
	I just came back from Clearwater Beach. I noticed yesterday that the water was cooler than I remember it being this time of the year and the water was definitely not what I would call "clear". Looked like there had been quite a bit of stirring around based on the amount of seaweed I picked out of my normally brown hair. Driving home today, I think we missed most of the storms but boy downtown Tampa must have gotten pounded because the temperature dropped from 92 at the beach to 78 near the airport. It's still threatening here, but nothing special to speak of yet. That's all I can tell ya weather wise. Colleen
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:39 PM	Re: oh yeah..
	Just wanted to say a quick "Hi" to all and really enjoy reading the info/opinions posted here. I look forward to everyones commments during the upcoming season. I live near Panama City FL, in the Florida panhandle. I know it is over a week away, but FYI the recent AVN/GFS, if I am reading it right, show a 1004mb storm hitting the FL eastern panhandle/big bend area at 216/228 hour (June 13/14). I realize that **if** this verified, it would bring some much needed rain to much of Florida.
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:47 PM	Re: oh yeah..
	If this verifies, it would also mean that Phil would be right in predicting Alex to form in the GOM around the 14th June. There seems to be a lot of consistency in predictions - a lot of models, forecasters etc seem quite keen on something forming in the Gulf sometime in the next 2 weeks or so. We will see...
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 07:53 PM	Re: oh yeah..
	Yeah, that would be something wouldn't it? By the way, I also fixed the FLA election in '00, so you can count on a 6/14 GOM storm (NOT!). It was a pure guess issued more than a month ago, so if it verifies it's complete and total luck, not skill of any kind. But it sure would be neat if it happened...
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 09:00 PM	RIP President Reagan
	He wasn't my favorite president, but to many he was. Ronald Reagan passed away this afternoon from complications with his heart. He was 93 and suffered from Alzheimers for the past 10 years. May he rest in peace.
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 05 2004 09:49 PM	SAL
	>>>HankFrank--followed everything above except SAL. What does that stand for? I believe it stands for "saharan air layer." HF correct me if I'm wrong.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sun Jun 06 2004 12:44 AM	Re: SAL
	http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal-atl.html Here is all the information concerning the sal.The SAL factor is an important one in my estimation because it causes systems to weaken after they develop into depressions,tropical Storms or hurricanes.Last year for example TD#6 which formed east of the lesser antilles was forecasted by the models to be a hurricane in the eastern caribbean sea but weakened to an open wave and never came back to redevelop because the SAL factor came into play with dry air entraining the low level circulation.There are many other examples of storms and hurricanes that haved hitted a big wall of dry air.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sun Jun 06 2004 12:45 AM	Re: SAL
	Here's an article about the SAL by a NOAA researcher that came out in April. SAL Article We've gotten at least 3" of rain here today and are expecting 1-2" more this evening. It's been raining every day again. This has been a weird May and June for here - mostly hot (upper 80's) and tons of T-storms based on upper features moving along the southern stream flow out of the W and NW. I'm not sure what ultra-rainy and warmer LA temps in early June signify, but if anyone has links to that data, feel free to see if there are any analogs for 2-3 months downstream. As for the world, the SOI had gone slightly negative for a couple of days on the 3rd and 4th. This is often a precursor for WPAC tropical activity. Indeed, there are 2 invests out that way - 96W.INVEST and 07W.NONAME. You can see them here: NRL Homepage Index has returned to positive meaning it won't likely be signifying a lot of heat migrating eastward from the Sothern Pacific into the Eastern El Nino zones. SSTA's are interesting. If you go to OTIS (see link below), you will notice some recent changes and some evolution in the oceans' climates. FMNOC OTIS SSTA'S There isn't a whole lot of shear around the Gulf right now (relatively). A medium jet might get cranking out the NW into the west-central Gulf after a couple of days, but that's not some 80mph shear zone. You can look at shear maps from the link below: Shear page from ATWC (Some links don't work) It looks like the Gulf is setting up nicely for later next week. It's tough to say if anything's going to develop, but we have an interrupted windflow, anticipated southerly and SEly air currents, a pretty strong wave getting into the picture and a piece of an old trof. I wouldn't say with 100% certainty that something's going to develop down there next week, but a setup (one of many different types) will be in effect. It should be an interesting week ahead to watch things to see if we can't get a TD or TS cranking. Steve
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sun Jun 06 2004 12:51 AM	Re: SAL
	Two other things I wanted to throw out - Carl Arredondo off of WWL Channel 4 (CBS) in New Orleans mentioned in last night's weathercast that "some of the models are hinting at some Gulf activity next week, so we're going to up the rain chances for late next week. Also, go to GOES and run a water vapor loop. The big high off the SE coast is amazing for June. That's a potential convair belt. People better hope that that sucker migrates east once the CV season gets rolling along. Also of note in the WV's are various concentric upper-level low pressures mulling around. Those ordinarily signify a reduced TUTT year and higher storm total year. Those types of ULL's also often signify La Nina or Neutral conditions. Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sun Jun 06 2004 02:09 AM	Re: oh yeah..
	Hey Colleen! How's things going? Kids keeping ya runnin'? SSTs in the GOM may be slightly cooler than last year at this time, but I don't think it will make a big difference as far as the tropical season is concerned. SSTs are coming up nicely on the east coast here. The trough that moved through this weekend stirred things up quite a bit, hence the sea weed. Hope ypu had a good time though. Get ready for an early kickoff to the season. Cheers!!
clyde w. (Storm Tracker) Sun Jun 06 2004 02:21 AM	SAL
	Thanks everyone for the SAL info. I'd never heard of that one before.
Storm Cooper (User) Sun Jun 06 2004 02:35 AM	Re: RIP President Reagan
	It's not weather but I found the 40Th President to be one of the best in my lifetime! This day is a sad one for most... a great person moving on.
LI Phil (User) Sun Jun 06 2004 11:06 AM	Re: RIP President Reagan
	Been watching the coverage all night. No matter what your politics, you have to admire Reagan. His was truly an amazing life. I want to thank ED for not deleting or moving (granted, the E&N forum is closed) these posts. As an aside, today is also the 60th anniversary of D-Day. Another truly amazing feat in the history of the USA and the world. To our younger members... This is the reason the french aren't speaking German today. If you don't get that reference, ask your parents/grand parents. They'll tell you. OK. That's my piece (peace). Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jun 06 2004 02:32 PM	Can we talk about the SW Carib?
	want to hear your thoughts my thoughts on Reagan are my own and since I'm not posting on a news board I'll hold onto them..either way a historic day... compells you to watch want to hear your thoughts on SW Carib, think too soon to tell but never know Bobbi (From the Moderator: I think that a couple of posts were certainly worthwhile to cover these memorable events - but now its time to move on - thanks.)
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jun 06 2004 02:34 PM	PS... PUBLIX has hurricane maps n/t ;)
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sun Jun 06 2004 03:13 PM	Alot of Rain!!!
	I don't know if anything will form from the caribbean stuff but it could mean a bunch of rain for us in SE Texas. The NWS is almost comparing this situation to what we had 3 years ago with Allison. I would rather this system develop because it may mean less rain than if it doesn't. We will see. ShawnS
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 03:35 PM	New Wave
	Anyone noticed the huge wave that is moving away from the African coast? Looks quite impressive, and it seems to be lasting a little longer over water than its predecessors did.
javlin (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 03:48 PM	Re: Alot of Rain!!!
	Looks to be a void some 200-300 miles N of it in the Yuc gap lacking any shear.That's providing the shear does not move as the system moves.The system has one quality already Persistence.Have to watch see what happens in a couple of days.
LI Phil (User) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:11 PM	Re: Alot of Rain!!!
	Speaking of a lot of rain, the disturbance just off the coast of Hondouras/Nicaragua is dumping big time. However, it's not expected to develop into anything. Looks like any future development is still a full week away at the least. Will have to check the latest models, but at last look, a couple were putting something in the east gulf next monday, just off the west coast of FLA. Looks like most of the USA east of the Mississippi is going to be HOT and wet this upcoming week. Oh well, par for late spring. Peace & Cheers, LI Phil
javlin (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:14 PM	Re: Split troph
	Steve didn't J.B. mention something about this between 10>15?
LI Phil (User) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:18 PM	Trough split - for jav
	Jav, Here's what Joe has to say on this today: "TROPICS: The gulf will have to be watched starting later this week and its unclear to me as to what can develop there. The point is the deep level convection is now showing itself in the southwest Caribbean and over northwest south America and its my theory the trof split will pull that toward the gulf in the next week to 10 days. The development of the new typhoon so far west in the Pacific would suggest that the areas to watch in the gulf are west, not east of 90, but eventually any enhanced gulf activity would come northeast next week."
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:32 PM	Re: Trough split - for jav
	SW Carib looking more interesting, more of wnw or NW trajectory; also, low level swirl at the end of convection zone just e of Fl--Joe's 'hybrid' beginning to crank??? sc2
javlin (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:35 PM	Re: Trough split - for jav
	Thanks Phil .I was going to reply that I don't always trust the NWS since Georges.They continued to say N.O. all the way till my lights went out.Most of us along the Coast knew better.In thier defense the predictions over the last couple of years and the NHC have been pretty good in the Atlantic and the GOM for the most part.It will be interesting to see how this comes about .The GOM seems to at times has her own rules for the game.
MikeC (Admin) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:49 PM	Re: Trough split - for jav
	testing out the updated system. We're starting to update flhurricane, fyi. This is just the first step. I'm testing out a reply.
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Sun Jun 06 2004 04:54 PM	Site looking better
	Site is looking better already with just the few changes, keep up the good work guys. The purple makes it even easier to see where a new post begins.
WxGal (Registered User) Sun Jun 06 2004 05:21 PM	Speaking of Weather....
	Well it's 1:15pm and I'm starting to hear some thunder hear in Polk County. Looking at the radar, looks we're in for another round of strong storms. It's hotter than Hades here, too. I don't see the big blow-up of storms happening along the coastline that were able to cool down our air temps yesterday happening again today. Already the thunder here is very strong...it's making the house rumble. Well, I guess this weather is keeping me busy. I'm glad others are here to keep an eye on the Tropics. (From the Moderator: For those that haven't noticed yet, there is a brand new Forum called 'Other Weather Events'. It was generated because of your requests to find another 'home' for material not associated with tropical cyclones - check it out when you get a chance.)
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sun Jun 06 2004 06:41 PM	Re: Speaking of Weather....
	Update looks good Mike except when you come in from the main news page, the system gives the error message that it's unable to display the forum I was looking for. I got in from clicking on the news item and then "read other people's comments". Ordinarilly, I get in by clicking on the "#" behind the news item. The rogue storm discussed last week cut up too far west and never got cranking as far as overwater feedback. But it did get cranking south of Cape Cod (see link below if its' still daytime) http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html As for the SW Caribbean stuff, I don't know where Joe gets week-10 days from. No way is it going to take that long to migrate up, but I suppose if the trof split drops far enough south (BOC?), it might curtail northward advancement of the wave and convection. Anyway, I like the teleconnection idea of a typhoon starting West of the Philipines and slowly migrating up then NE. Check out 07.NONAME on NRL's site. I don't like the JTWC's track with the system which is to slowly migrate it NNE over southern Taiwan and then hook it back NW between the Korean Peninsula and China. That's a weird Upper Texas or North Gulf teleconnection with a hook back west. No doubt the JTWC (in response to this post) will be changing their track. Peace. Happy Sunday. Steve
javlin (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 07:02 PM	Re: 79 and 11?
	The system seems to be expanding in size(2x).My imagination maybe almost looks like a curve on the E and N side.Movement seems to be either N or NNW. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jun 06 2004 08:21 PM	Re: 79 and 11?
	I think your right - there definately seems to be some sort of curvature there.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sun Jun 06 2004 11:22 PM	Important for Floridians to read this
	http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/ Ed I really didn't know in what forum I had to post this and be free to move it if you think it is needed to be moved from talkback forum but I thought that this was important to share this information to all who live in Florida and was posted at S2K.It is very interesting all of what it says there and it speaks of why Florida is poised for hurricane strikes in comming years.Many factors are combining to make the Florida Penninsula more threatened such as the PDO,Bermuda High strong and other factors that you can read in the link.Any comments are welcomed about this.And ED looking great the board now and I know that more changes are on the way .
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Mon Jun 07 2004 12:10 AM	Re: Important for Floridians to read this
	Yes Cycloneye, I agree that everyone in Florida should read that infomation, and maybe residents along the East coast of the U.S. should take that information into account. Its actually kind of scary that this increased major hurricane landfall patten is coming around again.
LI Phil (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 12:25 AM	Re: Important for Floridians to read this
	C-eye. Interesting read there. I think Floridians are always aware of the threat, at least since Andrew, but a couple of near misses may have lulled them into a false sense of security. Hope that's not the case. I know PR is always under the threat, so hopefully you guys will be all safe and sound this year. Certainly Hispaniola, particularly the Haitian part of it, don't need any more mischief this season. Several posts back, I had written that I thought LI might be "out of the woods" this year, but it's become increasingly apparent that we are at least medium-risk this season. And it looks like NE could be at even higher risk. Joe B feels the northeast will take a hit this season. Watching a really interesting Storm Story on TWC about weather and the D-Day invasion. It's amazing how the weather really does affect everything in one way or another...a bad forecast could have cost the Allies the war! Cheers & Peace LI Phil
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Mon Jun 07 2004 12:36 AM	Re: Important for Floridians to read this
	Phil two things I am particulary worried about Florida=Complancency from many people and the continued grownth of the Floridas Population.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Mon Jun 07 2004 12:37 AM	Re: 79 and 11?
	Thanks for posting that link..loop. Funny how much closer it looks on that loop. There is something going on tonight.What do they call that? Divergence? Difluent winds.. can't spell or think tonight. My mind is all over the place tonight. Really looks a lot better than I would have thought it would.. see how it looks at daylight again. Glad I was able to get on though it still says "an error occurred while processing this directive" Also.. like the divider lines somewhat ...is there any way to turn down the contrast a bit? Nice stormy purple, just dark. Skies were dark here... weather everywhere in Miami except here... thunder all day. Really looks good on the last few visible shots. take care, bobbi glad i was able to get in.. think its going to be a great season to track..oh and brian norcross did a great speial today about a lot of factors... and read the South Florida better watch out report.. well done I think but so true..so many factors far and near that make up where the storms go and who gets them. Have to follow general trends..but then when they get close to home... other factors come into play
LI Phil (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:11 AM	Tropical Update
	This comes from the evening trop update from accuwx: "A tropical disturbance just east of Nicaragua is showing signs of development as convection is blossoming around a broad circulation. This system is moving to the west-northwest at 5-10 mph and will bring flooding rains and gusty winds to Nicaragua and Honduras over the next 24 hours. Moisture from the system should reach southeast Texas Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance of numerous showers and thunderstorms. A large tropical wave along 45 west and south of 20 north is tracking west at 15-20 knots and shows little sign of development. Another tropical wave is moving west off of the African coast." Interesting about that Honduras/Nicaragua impulse. It's been flaring up since this am. If nothing else, it will keep Tejas wet this coming week. Probably bears watching though. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:32 AM	Re: Tropical Update
	Can't see the wave developing into anything at the moment, first off, NHC isn't suggesting development in any of its products, nor does NRL have an invest. Also shear in the area of the wave remains fairly strong and a shear tendency map shows the shear has been increasing and is forecast to increase further over the next 48hrs to the northwest of the system. Also latest TWO (10:30pm) says the system is moving west or northwest, this motion would bring it pretty close to land, another factor influencing development.
HanKFranK (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:35 AM	florida repercussions
	eventually climatology will right itself and florida will get walloped a few times. sure, huge economic impacts for the state, and all of the associated repercussions. but then again, this is florida we're talking about. florida is SUPPOSED to get hit by hurricanes.. it's part of the natural cycle that gives the state it's environmental niches. just because you put millions of people there doesn't mean that's going to change. for all that insurance you guys pay it would be kinda stupid to keep getting off the hook. on a current weather note.. the global modeling (gfs) i've been following has been getting steadily less reliable, in terms of run-to-run consistency.. for the past two weeks. i've seen so many different versions of bastardi's pattern evolution that i really don't know which to believe. if teleconnections are going to work.. maybe that gulf system will pop up in a week. right now i'm going to go with no systems for the next seven days. don't see any real indications for that time period, and more doubtful on the potential gulf system. if it blows up, expect it will have to develop very quickly, be short-lived. the general longwave pattern for the last month has been.. western trough, trough in the canadian maritimes.. mostly flat ridge between. that looks to continue.. don't think it will foster much development. one other note.. sst anomalies have me thinking the atlantic ridge will have a weakness near 50-60w, but will be strong in the east atlantic and strong near the east coast. HF 0235z07june
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:40 AM	Re: Tropical Update
	It looked to me though as if what looked like had some curve to it moved under dense overcast ;thus maybe some stacking.I just got done looking at CIMSS site shear is expected to lessen. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shtZ.html
javlin (Weather Master) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:44 AM	Re: Tropical Update
	Did not realize I was not logged in but if you look at the last few frames of VIS you might see what I mention.
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:49 AM	Re: Tropical Update
	that would be the shear tendency map, although the tendency has been for it to decrease, the forecast i looked at was indicating an increase over the next two days. Also even though the tendency has been for it to decrease, shear still exists over the system according to the latest analysis, which would explain why NHC keeps stating development is not expected due to unfavorable upper level winds, or at least that was the way i looked at it. Guess it depends on the source
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:50 AM	Re: Tropical Update
	Hey Guys, You may not remember me, but I posted a few times last year under the name Young Droop, Well I really enjoyed this site so Im back this year. Im also more wise this year when it comes to the tropics and weather in general. Still nowhere near any of you but one day I hope to have the knowledge some of you guys have. I live in Pensacola, Fl. and I have never been in a hurricane. Still waiting my turn, Just hopin it isnt the "Big One", Something small just to break me in But Im just afraid for Pensacola Beach, over the last few years, growth has exploded out there with I think about 4 new Huge Condo's being built. Anybody thats been there recently will be able to tell how much PCB has grown. I dont even want to think what a large hurricane would do to this area, And I hope I never find out. Anyways sorry for my rambling's, Had to get that off my chest lol Anyways have a good one ya'll.
LI Phil (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:56 AM	Welcome back "Droop"
	Enjoy these boards. Some really knowledgable & talanted people post here (I'm not one of them). Just one geography question. I don't have my atlas handy so I can't look it up and right now it's too late to start doing it online. Where is Pensacola Beach? Because you used the acronym PCB, which I always equated with Panama City Beach, and don't want to become confused. (Shout out to JK). Maybe, if it's not on the panhandle, you could just use the abbreviation PB, so the slower members like myself can keep things straight. Thanks, Cheers & Peace LI Phil **Update** OK I found it on the map (actually took some doing, believe it or not), now I know where Pensacola Beach is. On the Panhandle, but much further west than Panama City. Still, probably close enough that you're likely to see much the same weather. No need for anyone to respond to this post.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Mon Jun 07 2004 03:35 AM	Re: Welcome back "Droop"
	Sorry about the confusion Phil, I thought about not using the acronym PCB cause I knew ppl associate it moslty with Panama City Beach. I got tired of typing and didnt want to type Pensacola Beach lol Sry Again, and thanks for the greeting!!
LI Phil (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 03:38 AM	Re: Welcome back "Droop"
	No problem. I'm just somewhat easily confused. So long as you keep it PB and not PCB, I think I can handle it
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 04:08 AM	Re: florida repercussions
	Just a word to throw in about the Florida thing. I'm already on record in the storm forum as saying we'll get wacked twice this year by a named storm, although my reason might be a little far-fetched. But we have been very lucky, and we're due for a bad day or two sometime in the future, much like the rest of the east coast and gulf. But we all are aware of the risk of living on a very low pile of sand that extends out into the very waters where these storms develop. It's not the smartest thing living in Florida, I'm mean geez, they don't even let us vote anymore! We never, ever, ever claim to be the brightest lightbulbs down hear, that speaking from experence. I'm with HankFrank on nothing for the next week, maybe 10 days for me. We are really in a dead zone for storm development; the Atlantic is just locked up right now for at least a couple of weeks by a really strong high pressure pressing down from the north. But thats how it is most years anyway, right? So that leaves the gulf, which is almost no chance for even a TD for as far as models can see. It's going to be a slow start this year. Joepub1
Colleen A. (Moderator) Mon Jun 07 2004 05:35 AM	Polk County Weather Update
	Now I know why I only post here and am not working on hurricane models. Those boomers I mentioned earlier (posting as WxGal) never came to fruition and I was able to count the number of raindrops that fell on one hand. Oh well. I'll be keeping an eye on the area of interest mentioned here from now on. Thanks to Mike C. who let me come back as myself.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 11:50 AM	Heating up?
	http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Mon Jun 07 2004 12:09 PM	Re: Heating up?
	thanks for that shot of the far Eastern Atlantic... its pretty wet out there, unommon in ways, very different look from last year at this time
MoparMitch (Weather Watcher) Mon Jun 07 2004 02:35 PM	Re: Heating up?
	Agreed, activity this far east this early is, shall we say is intriguing. Nonetheless, what IS the same is the high west shear. For most this is a good thing, as it should curtail any major development, for us, it's a pity as we all love to see and track these storms. It's all OK, as long as nobody gets hurt. mitch... PS - You may be asking yourself, why is somebody from Atlanta so interested in hurricanes? I lived in South Florida for about 15 years, getting out a year before Andrew. However, my parents along with the rest of my family still live in hurricane prone South Florida. I had the pleasure of meeting with Dr. Neil Frank many years ago when he was top dog at the National Hurricane Center in the early 80's. My goal was to enter the field, but the real money is in TV, but I do not have the "TV Voice." So I enjoy weather from a places like this board. Many Thanks!!!
Rob_M (Weather Hobbyist) Mon Jun 07 2004 03:20 PM	Re: Heating up?
	Hello everyone, aside from posting our 2004 hurricane forecast discussion in the storm forum, haven't been an active poster recently. I enjoy reading these discussions here though...can hardly wait until we get some TC development. Regarding the east Atlantic, the waves aren't looking too shabby. But I wouldn't say they look any better than at this time last year...at this time last year a strong wave had just exited the coast and would (a few days down the road) become a rare early storm...TD2. Also the overall organization of the waves and how active the ITCZ is will fluctuate in weekly cycles in conjunction with the 2 phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation. Right now, the MJO pattern across the globe is not real defined so we're not seeing any marked decrease or increase in wave organization...hopefully we'll see the positive and negative MJO line up and ready to progress in the next couple of days. Knowing the MJO is also helpful to know days/weeks in advance when we'll see a burst (or lull) of activity, particularly in the heart of the season. The SW Caribbean disturbance won't do anything...it'll get shoved into central America before too long, and it's time over water won't amount to much due to the strong westerly shear being induced by the subtropical jet and upper level ridge in the east Pacific. So overall the tropics look to be in check for the next week at the very least. TWW, Kevin, and I did forecast no development in June for this season (mostly based on climatological patterns)...guess we'll see how that pans out.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 04:07 PM	Re: Heating up?
	I think the stuff that Joe B. was referring to is now starting to exit the western Mexican coast line. Of course it could be just normal rain showers but it does seem to be coming off fast, unless the Satellite frames are in backwards and it is really moving West instead of east.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 06:11 PM	SW carib..worth a look
	would like your thoughts... seems to have a hint of a spin been pretty in color all day too, even John Hope would have peeked a bit
javlin (Weather Master) Mon Jun 07 2004 06:11 PM	Re: Tropical Update
	I would like to apologize thier Jamiewx it was a shear tendancy I was referring to not a forcast.I hate to keep looking at it but there seems to be some kind of circulation in the system.The shear continues to lighten today with the shrinking of the in the Atlantic high.If you look at the pic on faster speed you see something maybe mid-level circulation.I am no pro by no means just an observer like many tring to learn along the way. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 07:01 PM	SW Carib... looks best in wv imagery
	http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html been watching all 3.. fact that you can see it this well entrenched on wv imagery is I think note worthy
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Mon Jun 07 2004 07:29 PM	Re: Tropical Update
	I can see maybe a hint of a weak mid-level circulation just east of the Nicaraguan coast.For sure the convective area has persisted for more than 48 hours but it has pulses up and down with no concentration in an area but being the time of the year the area has to be watched but for now nothing is imminent to develop there.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jun 07 2004 07:56 PM	Re: Tropical Update
	What does Joe Bastardi have to say this week?
LI Phil (User) Mon Jun 07 2004 09:04 PM	Re: Tropical Update
	I can't access his tropical update video until I get home, but in his daily report, he has no changes to the thinking that there will be no development anywhere until conditions get more favorable 6/10 and thereafter, and that the development would be in the GOM. Several of the models are hinting at this as well.
javlin (Weather Master) Mon Jun 07 2004 10:48 PM	Re: Tropical Update
	You're probably right Cyeye on that.The shear keeps weighing back and forth.The circulation seems to be at the mid-level if it's thier.You can see another set of clouds below high level clouds reacting differently in the enviroment(stationary).I said yesterday give it 48 hrs. see what happens tomorrow.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 08 2004 03:06 AM	Re: Polk County Weather Update
	Sorry, I was the anonymous.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 08 2004 01:49 PM	Does the distrubance have a shot??
	http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg It's a wait and see...
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 08 2004 01:51 PM	Does the distrubance have a shot??
	Distrubance leaving Africa: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/WV/20.jpg It's a wait and see...
LI Phil (User) Tue Jun 08 2004 02:14 PM	New Calendar Feature
	Just a quick note to all posters. Ed gave me the go ahead to let everyone know that one of the new updated features on this site is the "Calendar". It is an appropriate place to place your "first storm" guess. For those of you who've made such a guess, I'll be placing your predictions there. Also, if you update your profile ("my home"), another new feature is the "birthday" section. If you fill in your DOB, it will be noted on the calendar (don't worry, it only lists the day & month, not the year ). So let the board know when your b-day is, so we can give you a shout on your special day. Finally, I've compiled everyone's 2004 predictions (at least I think I have--if I missed you or you still haven't committed, post away), and I'll be putting them up in the Storm Forum shortly. Feel free to check them all out and add to them. Sorry Bobbi, I'm not trying to copy S2K...I just think it's handy to have everyone's guesses in one spot. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 08 2004 02:39 PM	Re: New Calendar Feature
	its a good idea... darn thought the calendar could help me organize my life.. figure i would use it here more than aol lol. anyway... someone tell me what they think of the chances of something forming in bermuda triangle close in to bahamas or off florida coast however you see it low low shear and very wet and climatologically correct
James88 (Weather Master) Tue Jun 08 2004 03:46 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot??
	That system certainly warrants a look every now and again. Meanwhile, it seems the disturbance in the Caribbean has faded away. It hardly gets a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook.
Rad (Weather Guru) Tue Jun 08 2004 04:39 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot??
	Ok Phil , Got mine There.... C-YA...
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jun 08 2004 08:23 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot??
	Hint of rotation at 44/8? Just to get some sense of excitement. Cheers!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 03:21 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	Didn't work Steve.. no one around here is going to get real excited without the real thing showing up. Sorry Steve, know you're trying here. Appreciate you for it. I couldn't even shout out "look the SW Carib" today.. itz is showing signs of life though and it rained in Miami today. Good try though
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 03:26 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	What about the MLC coming off of Mexico. If it were not for the shear in front of it, I believe it would be a good candidate for Alex.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 03:54 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	It is an area that should be watched though. Things may get perculating soon though when the UL winds ease. I think we'll see a June storm> Cheers!!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 04:52 PM	Good Looking Thunderstorms
	Things seem to be firing this afternoon down off of the South American Coast: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 04:56 PM	98W / 23N
	Any real chance this will get off the ground? Seems to have some circulation associayed with it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 05:03 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	Check out visible pics just north of Tampico--looks kind of interesting. http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Wed Jun 09 2004 05:15 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	Shear still is too strong for development in that area at the Western Gulf but the spin neverless looks interesting.If the shear wasn't present then the area would be watched more closely.
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 09 2004 07:24 PM	Re: Does the distrubance have a shot?? show it to me again?
	How much longer is this unfavourable shear expected to last?
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Wed Jun 09 2004 08:33 PM	Re: Mx CoastCrawler
	It seems every now and then we get one of these disturban :?:ces right up against the Mexican coast that actually becomes a td (and rarely) a storm, for a short time. This system does seem to be getting better organized, but, it is right on the coast. Unless it really gets 'feet wet', it won't go. sc
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Wed Jun 09 2004 08:38 PM	Re: Mx CoastCrawler
	And it also seesm a circulation may be at the mid-levels off the Nicarauguan coast....not as distinct as the circulation on the Mx coast, which does seem to be getting better organized as time goes by.... sc :?:
James88 (Weather Master) Wed Jun 09 2004 09:26 PM	Re: Mx CoastCrawler
	Check out this visible loop - there definately seems to be a circulation forming, and what's more, it appears to be moving out into the open Gulf. Mexican Coast Crawler
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 09:28 PM	shear from a few directions
	Shear is very strong right now from more than one direction. Air is diving down out of the north and coming out of the sw. There may be an illusion of twisting but I don't believe it has any real circulation..and any attempt to twist would be hindered by its current location in a shear zone. Infact, if I remember right people were insisting shear would lessen across the Gulf and Carib basin and just the opposite happened. Wondering whether or not we are going to have devasting conditions from another unnamed system like earlier in the year.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 09:36 PM	here, look at the flow out of the north
	While as said there might be some mid-level activity what looks like a long band is really blow off as the air rushes down from the north. Also.. the same effect enhances blow ups or what give the impression of a lot of color in the SW Carib but its really clouds and storms being blown fast away. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html would be hard to get something stacked with this going on
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 09:48 PM	check out wind sites...
	If you check out the following sites you will see that whatever is going on there is of an upper level feature and not a low level one. upper level winds: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html low level:http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8ir.html lastly, conditions in sw carib most hostile: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Wed Jun 09 2004 10:04 PM	Re: check out wind sites...
	Hey guys, just thought i would post about that circulation on the Mexican coast, but it seems plenty of others have beeten me to it The 18z surface analysis does not indicate a significant feature in this region, yet it seems pretty well developed in the upper levels. Any chance the circulation could work down to the lower levels? And as it seems to be moving off the Mexican coast and into the Gulf, will it enter a more favourable environment? Guess we will have to wait and see. Also noticed the large thunderstorm complex down in the SW Caribbean. Think this area has a reasonable chance given that there has been something in this general region for days now!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 10:35 PM	Re: check out wind sites...
	I suppose anything could develop if it waited long enough for the wind shear to die down. Its amazing to watch these little systems this early in the year. I seem to remember that the little storms like these were kind of few and far between last year except for the wave that made it across the pond early and got everyone highly excited.
HanKFranK (User) Wed Jun 09 2004 11:10 PM	out there
	very tempting mcc has been noted several times today in the western gulf. not only that, it drifted offshore, has enough mid-level torque to catch the eye, and some the fanning from thunderstorm outflow.. that it has the appearance of an idling tropical cyclone. i suppose if its there tomorrow it will need lots of attention, but as of now it's just eye candy. combination of a bit too much shear and a bit too strong low-level easterlies keeping all that mess in the w. caribbean from doing anything. that log-jam look it has means that it would otherwise be trying to do something.. since modeling suggests things will be getting gradually better down there over time, the area in general has a little bit of potential a few days ahead.. nothing for now. outside of that, central atlantic longwave trough is letting some mid-latitude weather get down there.. anything that cuts off when the pattern progresses (nothing very signifcant on the globals as of yet) might be worth watching. but of course, today is june 9th. it's early for much to happen. HF 2311z09june
HanKFranK (User) Wed Jun 09 2004 11:18 PM	side note
	nothing in modeling going out on a limb, so of course this is doubtful.. but all that convection in the w. caribbean is being enhanced by divergence aloft. that stimulus should continue, and migrate northward.. once it gets out of the stronger low-level easterly flow it has a chance at getting a surface feature. that shouldn't happen before the weekend or later. some model hints at the energy phasing up the east coast, but nothing going crazy with it in terms of development. HF 2319z09june
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Wed Jun 09 2004 11:35 PM	Re: check out wind sites...
	After looking at a few satellite loops, I think its safe to say that the swirl coming off the Mexican Coast isnt just an illusion, it definetly looks like a mid-upper level feature swirling its way into the Gulf. Only problem as ya'll have been discussing is the amount of shear that exist. Unless the shear weakens rapidly I dont expect this feature will cause any problems as far as development goes. I hate these early season blob's that are always around. They have to be the hardest things to actually forecast. They can develop or go poof in a matter of hours. But thats what makes trackin storms and hurricanes so much fun. Good Day All
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jun 09 2004 11:38 PM	Re: side note
	Exactly right H/F. All that shear is the result of an Upper Low at the vortex of an upper trof peeling off to the SW. As of Monday, ridging was expected to build over the gulf toward the end of the weekend leaving anything left in it with a free ride to do whatever it wants to. But I haven't looked at any extended range GFS 500mb charts lately. I'll try to take a look tonight if possible. FWIW, SOI remained negative for the 3rd straight day (and first time since April) probably in response to all the tropical action in the Westack. Bastardi's Gil Clark "Pulsing" teleconnection doesn't work with a negative SOI, only a positive one. However, the NRL tracks for the two West PAC systems are very interesting. We got to look at plenty of far west activity there last year, some of which preceeded Texas hits. SW Caribbean has more convection today than it has for a week. I knew the last stuff wasn't going to last 7-10 days as it got pulled up toward Texas over the last 2 or 3 days. The stuff down there now should be able to ride around the NE side of the ULL as it backs off SW and open an avenue into the eastern gulf for an increase in moisture (if nothing else). Steve
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 10 2004 12:56 AM	Denial
	Read thru all the posts tonight..total denial. If not for John Wilkes Booth Lincoln would have lived. There is shear, live with it. Deal with it. It's too early. night guys... oh and coleen and any other girls round here see a shrink or pop some chill pills Rx for Denial
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 12:56 AM	For What It's Worth...
	Are all (or any) of the mets/strong posters (that's you HF & Steve) convinced we're free of any Gulf (or anywhere else) nonsensical chances at least 6/20-ish & beyond? Not 'cause I'm still harbouring thoughts of a 6/14 system (why did I just write that in "british english"?), Seems we could get a rogue storm fairly soon if the mischief off of Mexico gets organized. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Storm Cooper (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 01:01 AM	Re: check out wind sites...
	My thinking was we would see at least an invest in the GOM around the 17th. That may get pushed back but I think we will see "something" this month.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:30 AM	Re: For What It's Worth...
	>>Are all (or any) of the mets/strong posters (that's you HF & Steve) convinced we're free of any Gulf (or anywhere else) nonsensical chances at least 6/20-ish & beyond? It's a tossup, but I think something's going to try to go once upper ridging sets up in the Southern Gulf. I checked out some of the upper air charts and they are less conclusive than what they were Monday, but the opportunity for a go will be there in the next few days as that ULL clears the picture. We're going to have to wait and see how everything evolves. In the meantime, Texas has been getting swamped by deep flow. We caught a break here today in SE LA dodging the rain for the first time in about 2 weeks. Steve
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:42 AM	Re: For What It's Worth...
	Btw, I found the new link to High Res SST site out of Naval Oceanographic Office in Mississippi. I'd been looking for it since they changed the site over the winter. You might want to update your link. https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif Enjoy. Steve
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 11:41 AM	Re: For What It's Worth...
	There's an interesting (but probably short lived) area of convection off the SC coast this morning. As I said, probably short lived, but something to watch anyway.
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 02:03 PM	Call of the day
	Goes to James....looks interesting, and there is the hint of a circulation forming, convection is holding together---in past Junes, this area has often bred the first storm. Of the morning line-up, this is most promising. Low shear, lots of good wv imagery....if it is still there this pm, and has held it's own/improved in organization, this may be 'it'. Elsewhere: W Carib convection looks a little more interesting this am, there is some curvature, some outflow, it just is beginning to have that 'look'. Climo is a go; shear needs to lessen; and, "to the good", as HF stated, it is moving out of the strong easterly belt. Could at least be a rainmaker. Same story as SC blow-up--let's see what is there this pm ... Impulses come and go on MX coast..the MCC (Mexican Coast Crawler--grin) evaporated in the aforementioned shear (no denial here!!), and it is still ripping there....looks like another impulse might be forming up. No joy expected there. Finally---another wave approaches the islands and another impressive wave moves off Africa. June--too soon. On another note, in TLH we had a fierce thunderstom on the northside last night---pretty awesome...I didn't go far enough back in the loops to see if the MCC off SC was the same that blew us up last night (was in town working, and I got soaked and (lightning) stroked!) Have a happy Thursday////if the SC complex hold together--I may call the ball this pm or evening--stay tuned! sc
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 02:09 PM	Re: Call of the day v 2.0--ball call may be moved south!
	Hmmm, looked carefully at the loops--looks like there is more shear off SC than I thought, system is waning a bit, but, the big thing I noticed is there IS some sort of circulation trying to form , with a convective cluster in attendance and apparently growing, north of Honduras....stay tuned... sc
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 02:22 PM	From Joe B
	Still clinging to that 6/14 call, a taste of Mr. Bastardi: "The pot may start to boil in the Gulf early next week. The upper low near the Yucatan is splitting and backing. The wave, should it survive, will be in area that will be well ventilated by Sunday. In addition, the next trof splits again coming southeastward. The point is that tomorrow is June 10th and the Gulf may have to be watched as we go into the weekend into early next week." If we don't get something next week, we may not get anything until July. Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 02:56 PM	Re: From Joe B
	Thanks for the info. Any idea what part of the Gulf *may* be affected *if* the wave survives ?? Thanks !!!!!! Tony
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 03:21 PM	Re: From Joe B
	Well, if I just awoke from a long winter's nap and clicked on a satelite shot of the NW Caribbean, I would definitely say.....hhhhmmmmmmmmm. Cheers!!
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:06 PM	Re: From Joe B
	Western Carib looking interesting, even though no models are picking up on development., also wave exiting Africa looking strong for now. AJ
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:18 PM	Re: From Joe B
	That wave does look fairly impressive (at the moment). Having said that though things are still a long way from favourable. The water temperatures have recently fallen in that area. However, on the other hand, notice how far north the heat has spread in the W. Atlantic in just a week. Real Time POES Imagery - Atlantic/East Pacific SST Loop
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:33 PM	Re: From Joe B
	Yeah I noticed that also. SSTs from 50W on westward are taking off. Lake Worth 83 degrees this morning. East Atlantic is where it should be now temp wise, but the western Atlantic is cooking. This year we don't have the cold water on the Florida east coast like we had last year! We'll have a bath tub soon!!
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 04:49 PM	Gulf SSTs
	85 degrees at St. Marks this am---has been rising all week.PCB= 80 degrees. Plenty warm enough, not deep enough yet.... sc
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 05:15 PM	SST'S
	Here in the beaches of Puerto Rico I went this morning to see for myself and feel how the water is and it is warming big time compared with a month ago.84*F was the surface temp at the north coast of PR and as Steve says it is becoming a bathtub in the caribbean and west of 50w.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 05:24 PM	Re: SST'S
	I don't know about ya'll but the NW caribbean sure is looking pretty awesome for a system that has no chance of development. It kind of reminds me of Allison 3 years ago when the NHC said there was no chance for her until she was right on top of us and they finally had to give her a name. I remember looking at her when she looked exactly like this and saying to myself that there was something going on there. Maybe this time they are right, but then again, maybe they're wrong. SoonerShawn ( a.k.a. ShawnS)
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 05:48 PM	Re: SC and NW Carib
	Well, it's early afternoon, and what have we got? 1. Off SC, there is obviously a circulation, looks low level, but, also, it is getting stretched nne-ssw and sheared. It is organized, however. TWT= time will tell. 2. NW Carib definitely looks like it is spinning up, but, hard to tell how much is on the surface. However, there is definite cyclonic curvature, and convection is firing. Wonder if pressures are falling at the surface?? Definitely bears watching... sc
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 05:56 PM	Re: SC and NW Carib
	Well check this out Interesting http://www.wunderground.com/global/JM.html
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 05:57 PM	Re: SC and NW Carib
	Maybe if the system continues to develop it will be assigned an invest, or at the very least get a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook. I will agree with what others have said - there do seem to be some comparisons with Allison in '01.
javlin (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:19 PM	Re: feeding or being fed
	If you look at the feature in the SW Caribbean on a WV loop is it being fed the air on the W side or is it feeding on the W side.I really cannot tell.Seems to me if it is feeding maybe something happening?I really do not see alot of signature for rotation yet except maybe a little at mid-level maybe.If it is feeding though then a rotation has to provide the influx.Just some thoughts.Maybe someone on the board could provide some insight.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:36 PM	Tropical Outlook from accuwx
	accuwx has said this about the disturbance off the Yucatan: "However, a wave along 89 west is interacting with an upper level system near the Yucatan. This interaction is causing considerable cloudiness and large thunderstorm clusters just northeast east and southeast of the Honduran and Nicaraguan coastal areas. This is an area of disturbed weather that will have to be watched. Currently all the unsettled weather is mostly being caused by the upper level system just east of the Yucatan of Mexico. Current global computer models show no lower level organization to this system during the next few days." The models may not be developing it, but it sure does look healthy enough to develop. I'm wondering if NRL will put up an invest anytime soon... Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:43 PM	Re: Tropical Outlook from accuwx
	Weather on Roatan island, just off the north coast of Honduras., winds from the south and the pressure 29.88 and falling. A LLC may be trying to form in the area. AJ
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:43 PM	Re: SC and NW Carib
	Pressures are not too low, but definitely, windy there! Thanks! I did notice rope clouds on the west side of the disturbed area, these normally do not indicate a developing trend...twt sc
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:45 PM	Re:Roatan
	Thanks --the most significant thing about that ob is the south wind.... sc
javlin (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 06:45 PM	Re: Tropical Outlook from accuwx
	That kind of answers the ? If it is being fed does not that cause something like a false echo.The upper level looks to be developing but it is actually not.The signature of rotation is actually caused by the upper level system's interaction with the wave.See how this plays out.I do not feel like tipping the boat either way.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jun 10 2004 07:03 PM	Question about the Clouds in the Carib
	I have a question for some of you who know more than me about the Tropics. When I look at the satelite the clouds from the Carib look like a frontal boundary. I know its not a frontal boundary, but it does look connected. So, my question is--Is the area of cloudiness in the NW Carib connected to the area of rain over Florida? What they call a trof axis, or something like that. It seems to be part of an elongated trof of some kind. From the NW Carib up to that area off of South Carolina actually. Does anyone else see this?
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 08:36 PM	Re: JB's take on the Carib
	From JB's afternoon comments: wave along 89 west is interacting with an upper level system near the Yucatan. This interaction is causing considerable cloudiness and large thunderstorm clusters just northeast east and southeast of the Honduran and Nicaraguan coastal areas. This is an area of disturbed weather that will have to be watched. Currently all the unsettled weather is mostly being caused by the upper level system just east of the Yucatan of Mexico. Current global computer models show no lower level organization to this system during the next few days. AJ
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 08:36 PM	Re: Question about the Clouds in the Carib
	I see what you mean. It does seem to have the appearance of an elongated trough, but that's just what I can see. I may be wrong. The Tropical Weather Outlook has finally given the system a mention, but doesn't expect much:- AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDRSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT LIKELY.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 08:40 PM	Re: JB's take on the Carib
	Tropics Guy, I posted that very quote about 8 posts before you. You even replied to it. LOL LI Phil
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 08:47 PM	Re: JB's take on the Carib
	Hey Phil, Sorry about the dup post, my bad. lol
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 09:02 PM	Re: JB's take on the Carib
	Whatever happens with this system, it certainly gives us something to watch. It seems to be holding together some form of organisation, but it remains to be seen how long this will last. P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 09:10 PM	Re: JB's take on the Carib
	TG - actually now people won't have to jump to the previous page to view it. >>> P.S. This system is probably the best chance for your June 14th guess Phil. Who knows - you might get lucky Well, I am sort of counting on it. I doubt it will develop, for all the reasons listed in past posts. However, I will be watching it...maybe someone can hop on hurricane hunter flight and sprinkle some pixie dust into it Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Thu Jun 10 2004 09:35 PM	Still no mention of development
	TWO issued at 5:30pm, contains no changes, still states that no development is expected. Also I checked the wind shear analysis and the shear looks to be reasonably weak and forecast to remain so during the next 48 hours. Maybe a circulation could work down to the surface, but now the only inhibitor could be its proximity to land.
James88 (Weather Master) Thu Jun 10 2004 09:43 PM	Re: Still no mention of development
	That proximity to land is a problem - just give it a couple of days and see what state the system is in when it reaches the open Gulf. Perhaps conditions will become a little more favourable, but as mentioned before, it seems fairly unlikely. On another note, check out the apparent circulation in the system off the Carolinas. Hurricane Visible Loop
LI Phil (User) Thu Jun 10 2004 11:05 PM	Birthday Shout
	Happy birthday to "June C." Just noticed it on the calendar. How did your parents come up with your name? Cheers & Peace, LI Phil
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jun 11 2004 02:08 AM	GFS picks something from east atlantic
	http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/18/gfsslp.html However this is the only model that is showing this interesting loop of a weak low moving thru the deep tropics from the eastern atlantic.I will believe it when I see that low cranking up if it happens because it is early to see things developing from that part of the world.Let's see if other models join the gfs.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 12:02 PM	Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic
	GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. However the AVN takes a low near the Yucatan North to West Panhadle of Florida. The morning Sat is looking interesting near the Yucatan.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 12:57 PM	Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic
	Is that an actual tropical storm or hurricane that would cross Florida or just a low, because it doesnt look very strong on that model. I thought the wave going all the way across the atlantic was more interesting. How strong would that low be and do any models this morning show the low again?
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 02:32 PM	Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic
	>>>GFS.Good.For.S_ _ t. Lonny LOL!!! I guess that's similar to the "MRF" label of "Most Ridiculous Forecast". I don't have many "high hopes" for development, although this system will surely bring a boatload of rain to the SE gulf coast. Whether it can develop much beyond a deep low is the question. Won't yet write it off, but aren't expecting much strengthening at this moment. Still, gotta be watched. LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:12 PM	Fireball Away sir...
	The "Mother Country" has just launched... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
Rob_M (Weather Hobbyist) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:19 PM	Re: GFS picks something from east atlantic
	Just my opinion...but I don't see much potential at all beyond a rainmaker for the south... IWIC Atlantic Basin Tropical Weather Discussion - 11 June 2004 - 11:10 AM EDT The most prominent disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today is the mid to upper level low in the northwest Caribbean Sea. Yesterday, the interaction between this upper low and a passing tropical wave generated deep convection, but today the wave has moved well on out of the area and into the eastern Pacific. The upper low has not moved, and the convection that is still present in the northwest Caribbean Sea is thus completely associated with this upper low. Tropical cyclone development cannot occur in this type of situation, as a low pressure needs to be present at the surface and not at the higher altitudes of the troposphere. The upper low is currently moving slowly northwestward, a track that will take it across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Gulf of Mexico in the next 48 hours. No development will occur in this time frame due to the reason we mentioned above and land interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula. Once the low is in the central Gulf of Mexico, it does not look like the potential for development will be that high. First of all, even if a surface low does form underneath as the GFS and CMC show, the upper low will still be above it. This will keep any surface low pressure that develops from becoming purely tropical. Secondly, the system will be moving rather quickly to the north along the western prehiphery of the subtropical ridge, giving it only a limited amount of time to strengthen before it comes ashore between New Orleans and Pensacola in about 96 hours. To add to the problems, a shortwave trough is progged to dip through the southern states towards the second half of the forecast period. This will quickly induce strong southerly shear over the system as it closes in on the coast. It should be noted that although Allison in 2001 and Bill in 2003 formed in part from an upper low similar to this one, the conditions in this case are not the same as with those 2 storms. For Bill, the upper low that was present when it initially formed quickly faded and gave way to an upper high, which allowed Bill to intensify and transform into a purely tropical system. For both of the storms, conditions were conducive as they approached the coast, which allowed Allison to form and Bill to further intensify. In this system's case, the upper low should stay above any surface low that might form, and the shortwave trough will prevent any last minute intensification or cause weakening before it reaches the coast. Therefore, the window of opportunity for this to develop is very small, practically non-existent. No development is expected, though it should still spread heavy rains over portions of the south. Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea is being sheared apart by strong westerly winds. Another tropical wave has just exited the coast of Africa with moderate convection. Dry subsidence due to the seasonably southward positioned Azores High and marginally cool ocean temperatures will prevent this or any other waves at this time of the year from developing.
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:33 PM	Re: Fireball Away sir...
	Yet another impressive tropical wave. Still a few weeks though before conditions will improve. At this time of the year they get ripped apart as fast as they form. Looks like we'll have to wait until at least next week for anything with potential. Accuweather doesn't expect anything:- "Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic and Caribbean remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop through the weekend." Wasn't it a year ago today that TD 2 formed? Talk about an active early season! P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The TWO says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:46 PM	Carib
	Hi, wishing you all a nice weekend. Rest up before the real action happens. My main concern with the SW Carib or Mid Carib area is that the area keeps firing far from the supposed center to the east of it. If you watch the sats (all of them) you see there is something firing to the east of it and its not being blown off there by shear. Nothing seems to be able to stack regarding a circulation and the eastern area fights the western area in terms of intensity. Not a good sign. Though, things could change down the line when and if it goes somewhere. Nice wave off Africa, too soon not because its June but because of the position of the high and mostly water temps. They come off nice but the heat isn't high enough. Enjoy the weekend everyone, Bobbi may have come off nice but sequel will be "another one bites the dust" though I would love to be proven wrong there
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:46 PM	Possible Alex
	>>> P.S. - Your potential first storm is actually looking a little healthier at the moment, Phil. The TWO says that storm formation is not expected, but then weather is unpredictable. That's what makes it interesting After reading Rob Mann's excellent analysis, I'm not getting my hopes up. The system will probably be just a big rain maker. Still, Allison & Bill formed under similar, though more favorable, conditions. BTW, I'm being moved to tears over RWR's memorial service. He was a good friend to the Brits, James88, and we can certainly thank him for bringing about the demise of the Evil Empire (no, not the Yankees, the Soviets). Peace & Cheers, LI Phil
Rob_M (Weather Hobbyist) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:47 PM	Re: Fireball Away sir...
	Yeah, we were all looking at TD2 near 40W at this time last year. Very uncommon to get development that far east so early in the season. On the subject of this Caribbean disturbance, just shoot me if it develops. My June stats are SOOOO against it LOL. Then again you know how the weather can be. But in all seriousness, I still don't think this will become anything at all (other than a rainmaker). As long as there's a low pressure in the UPPER levels, we won't be dealing with a purely tropical system. And there is a chance that the upper low will fade away by Day 3...but by then any surface low will be starting to experience strong shear from a shortwave trough. Still bears watching (as with any disturbance) but nothing to get exicted about IMO.
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 03:53 PM	Re: Fireball Away sir...
	This certainly seems to be one of those years with a slow start to the season - but as others have mentioned we could have a very busy September. P.S. You're right Phil, it is a very moving service. Even though I'm not an American it is easy to see what an all-round great guy he was. May he rest in peace.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 04:19 PM	Re: Fireball Away sir...
	Check out the southwest wind at Minatitlan on the Yucatan Peninsula. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/EWX/SWRMX
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 04:44 PM	Re: Fireball Away sir...
	Forget the last post--thought Minatitlan was located on the east coast of the Yucatan, but instead it is on the west coast around 94 degrees, which makes the southwest wind much less significant.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 07:17 PM	nw caribbean
	http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html there are two interesting notes on this satellite image: 1) there appears to be a mid-level low forming at about 20N over the yucatan 2) the southeast section of the western low appears to have high clouds going to the south, which may be a forming high level anticyclone remember in 2001, tropical storm barry formed from the interaction of an upper low with a wave
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 07:41 PM	accuwx tropical discussion
	No matter what happens with this wave over the weekend, it will certainly be interesting: "Tropical waves moving through the Atlantic remain rather disorganized and are unlikely to develop into anything important through the weekend. However, the interaction of an upper level low near the Yucatan and an approaching wave near Jamaica could lead to the formation of a low pressure area just north of the Yucatan Sunday or Sunday night. That low pressure area could then become an organized tropical system early next week. Weather maps show an upper level low nearly stationary near the Yucatan. A tropical wave along 94 west interacted with this upper level system yesterday causing an expanded area of clouds, rain and thunderstorms. That wave has moved on to the west and is no longer having an impact on the northwest Caribbean. However, another tropical wave along 80 west is moving west at about 10-15kts. This wave will interact with the upper level system near the Yucatan. This will maintain a large area of rain and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean through Saturday. Model output from the U.S. global model and the Canadian global model are showing an area of low pressure forming north of the Yucatan on Sunday. If such development occurs then there's some chance this low might become an organized tropical system by Monday. At this point much of this is speculation since development of this nature is very difficult to forecast. However, tropical formation in this area is common in June. So, that is another reason why there is concern for development." Cheers & Peace, LI Phil ( Monday?)
javlin (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 07:41 PM	Re: nw caribbean
	I saw thought also on the Vis pics.The system is in the backyard now got a look at it.Looks good no matter what views you look at.I still do not know if will make it to the surface.Seems to be moving in a NNW direction and the wind shear seems to be lessening.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 07:58 PM	Re: nw caribbean
	just checked some of the forecast models, a few forecast a storm-intensity low near Panama City in 72 hrs and a low near 10n/50w in 120h
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 08:17 PM	Re: nw caribbean
	Yeah, a couple of models are picking up on. In today's missive, JB rambled on about the system. HE doesn't think it will develop into TS Alex, but did think "if we get an actual low level center once this gets past the Yucatan, chances are well will have a system that causes heavy rains with tropical storm force winds in its east side, affecting the central gulf coast early next week." Then he postulated that even if the above happens, NHC might not even assign it a name (???). Now, if this thing does develop, and has t/s force winds, how could it not be named? Especially if it is that close to the US? What's up with that? LI Phil
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 08:23 PM	Re: nw caribbean
	This situation seems similar to that sytem that hit the Dominican Republic a couple of weeks back - a lot of people seemed to think that was a tropical storm, and that it should have been assigned a name. Could this be shaping into a similar situation? We will really have to watch this system closely.
Storm Cooper (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 08:32 PM	Re: nw caribbean
	It does seem to have some staying power. I think the AVN/GFS is pushing it a bit but if it's still around in the next day maybe we will get some tropical model runs on it.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 08:56 PM	NRL Update
	I'd been having trouble accessing the NRL site all day. I finally got on, but there's a message saying satellite imagery will not be updated until late Monday afternoon. I wonder if that means they will not be able to issue any new invests? If anyone knows, by all means share with the board. Check that...that was only for the Typhoon Chanthu link. Other links say the "satellite imagery is being slowly updated." LI Phil
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jun 11 2004 09:00 PM	Re: NRL Update
	I suppose they could still issue invests, because there are a lot of satellites up there above us. But then that's just my opinion - they might not be able to. I don't want to sound as though I'm overreacting, and I'm not saying that they don't do a good job, but these frequent site problems are beginning to get quite annoying.
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Fri Jun 11 2004 10:17 PM	Re: accuwx tropical discussion
	YEah, but, is it going to rain in Florida?
LI Phil (User) Fri Jun 11 2004 10:32 PM	Re: accuwx tropical discussion
	>>> YEah, but, is it going to rain in Florida? Mary, LOL! Doesn't it rain every day in Florida? Seriously tho, we're talking about a system that is probably 3 days away, so everyone from New Orleans (Shout out to Steve) to Tampa (Shout out to Kevin) should be watching. Even if it does develop, it will become, at best, a weak TS, so it's probably not of great concern. Someone is going to see A LOT of rain, however. LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jun 11 2004 10:50 PM	Two circulations?
	I've looked at the loops for a while and it appears to me that there are two different circulations. There looks to be one already on the yucatan and one to the east that is still over water. If this is true I wonder if they will split and become two seperate identities. The reason I say this is because I see everyone on here talking about it moving towards the central or east gulf and yet the local mets are saying it would move more less in our direction in Texas. One of them even stated that a model had a low sitting just east of Brownsville on Monday. What's up with that!?!? SoonerShawn (a.k.a. ShawnS)
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 12 2004 01:21 AM	Re: NRL Update
	Phil I am not been able to get access to the NRL site today but you haved gotten in.Is that a new link or is the same one? Post the link for NRL as I all day long haved not seen anything from there.
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 12 2004 01:40 AM	Re: NRL Update
	Try this link to the NRLsite: http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi TG
Storm Cooper (User) Sat Jun 12 2004 02:09 AM	Re: NRL Update
	https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/ This one may be of use also... SC
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 12 2004 02:11 AM	Re: NRL Update
	Thank you Tropics Guy it worked finnally.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Sat Jun 12 2004 02:20 AM	Re: NRL Update
	I remember last year when the soon to be Bill was in this same position. I remember a big mess of convection over the Yucatan, and everyone was writing it off, saying the wave was dead and nothing was to come of it. So i decided to go to sleep about 2am and the next morning, at 9 my parents woke me up and said there was a tropical storm named Bill in the Gulf...That was a big suprise to me, I was like...what the heck happened that I missed. But I dont think that will happen with this disturbance, just tellin my story about the formation of Bill last year. I'd give it about a 30% chance. Mostly a rain event along the Central Gulf Coast.
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jun 12 2004 02:53 AM	gulf, next 3-4 days
	i keep hearing downplay of this system, things like: 'an upper low is causing it' or 'it won't be purely tropical'. but consider this: the system is moving into the subtropics, and systems in the subtropics almost always have to contend with shear and upper lows. the problem with that is that you get tropical cyclones--warm core, nonfrontal lows--in shear situations like this every year. like that system in may. it may be assymetric due to all of its convection getting stripped one way, but if it has a closed center and no frontal boundary, gale-near gale winds, is over tropical waters and has a warm core, it's a tropical cyclone. anyway.. chances aren't all that rosy for this one. the low level easterlies are strong on the east side of the ULL, which is where a storm would get some induced ridging. to the west there is little in the way of convection. if something does form it will likely be of that awkward, hybrid-appearing ilk that the nhc likes to not classify... initially at least, probably all the way to the coast. enough globals are being suggestive, but it doesn't have that definite closed look.. more of that almost-closed, would-be-if-not-sheared-heavily appearance. perhaps a fast-mover caught in the flow that does a quick spurt of intensification.. a weak system by any means. what joe b has said, i'll throw my confidences that way. 30-40% that we get something definite, most likely something of dubious appearance that the nhc hesitates on. you guys know the drill (may 22-25 system). LI phil, if you get your system, i'll buy you a beer for your lucky call. but you've got to come south to get it. HF 0254z12june
javlin (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 03:19 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	HF I would look at it a little harder if it sits for 36>48 hrs in the GOM with little forward movement.and less shear.I had faith in Bill last year when many didn't.This just does not look quite that healthy yet.
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 07:24 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	Even so, the NHC doesn't seem to have written it off just yet - check out the Tropical Weather Outlook:- AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED PRIMARILY WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...THERE IS A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. The past couple of days have all been saying that tropical cyclone formation in not expected. Now, however they appear to think that it may have a little potential. We'll have to watch this one closely over the next few days.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jun 12 2004 07:33 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	I 100 Percent agree Hankfrank! What I'm seeing with this is the heat is being drawn slowly to the north into a area around 23/24 north/86/87 west. Which has shown signs of convection in a nice cloud shield which looks a whole lot like Bill looked like when it started forming. Pluse the upper low to the East which Bill also had.
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 08:05 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	Perhaps there is a small chance of tropical storm formation - as you said there is a resemblance to Bill of last year when it was forming. Also, has anyone noticed the area of convection that has flared up off the coast of NC? I doubt it will come to anything, but it's something that's only appeared in the last few hours.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sat Jun 12 2004 11:01 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	Joe B, in a Saturday update special, thinks it's going to go. In a paraphrase, he think's the system will develop an eastern side that has tropical storm or near tropical storm winds and should be a "typical" June type hybrid. He thinks it will come up between 90 and 92 west Monday afternoon or night with rainfall in SE LA of up to 5" by Tuesday am (his scheduled arrival time). He doesn't think the west or center will have much if any action, but that the Eastern side will be nasty. He doesn't want to speculate if it's going to be named or not, but cautioned everyone from SE LA to Appalachicola to keep an eye on this. He referenced Bill and Allison where 36 hours before landfdall, there wasn't much idea in the public realm. The biggest effects will be rain, but he expects tropical storm conditions east of whereever the center goes in, but can't yet say if it will close off or not. Food for thought. Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jun 12 2004 11:49 AM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	Convection is beginning to bloom over the southern GOM now. Let's see how it sustains/builds with the UL winds. Front pushing down the eastern seaboard too. Let's see how they interact. CHeers!!
javlin (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 12:17 PM	Re: gulf, next 3-4 days
	Will it looks like one of the elements has been removed the shear .That coupled with the fact it will have some time over the warm waters of the GOM something might happen.The question now is will it make to surface?The blower has been on full out there thus far and it looks to be off for the time being.I hope it goes, little wind storms like Bill are cool.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 12 2004 12:51 PM	93L in GOM
	http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi Well here is the invest for the GOM area.Looks like a surface low is trying to form.Let's see what happens but it will be slow to develop if it does so.Rain will be the main threat for the gulf coast even if it turns into a TD or even a minimal tropical storm.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jun 12 2004 01:14 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/04061212 Here are the first model runs for 93L that look interesting.
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 01:22 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	This situation gets more interesting by the hour. There are a few conditions in the Gulf that favour development, but then others that do not. Time will tell, I suppose.
LI Phil (User) Sat Jun 12 2004 01:51 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	Jeez, I go to sleep for a few hours and look what happens... >>> LI phil, if you get your system, i'll buy you a beer for your lucky call. but you've got to come south to get it. HF, LOL! I'm still not convinced this will amount to anything but I'm sure as h--- rooting it on! And, hey, I'm willing to drive anywhere south of the mason dixon line for a cold beverage Two birthday shouts: Jamiewx (go check out his webpage: [url=http://metcenter.home.comcast.net/] and Clyde W. OK, gotta go check out accuwx & NRL. http://metcenter.home.comcast.net/ Cheers & Peace (for now) LI Phil
Storm Cooper (User) Sat Jun 12 2004 03:30 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	This is a little interesting... a possible recon flight Sunday? I doubt it but we will see
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 03:39 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	Quote: I'm still not convinced this will amount to anything but I'm sure as h--- rooting it on! I wouldn't write this sytem off just yet, it might surprise us. After all, weather is unpredictable! I tried to have a closer look on visible satellite, but NRL seem to be having problems again P.S. The system that moved off the Carolinas yesterday still looks interesting. I very much doubt it will develop into anything at all, but convection is currently firing up there. Still, for the moment my attention is focused squarely on the Gulf
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jun 12 2004 03:47 PM	Re: 93L in GOM
	Looks like the NHC may be giving this sytem a little more potential for development:- A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. How things have changed since yesterday!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jun 12 2004 06:06 PM	Model Runs
	I noticed that there is a distinct difference in the model runs. Some have this system coming west to Texas and some have it going to the east towards Florida. I guess what that means is that everyone along the whole gulf coast should pay attention. SoonerShawn (a.k.a. ShawnS)
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Thu Jul 22 2004 01:34 PM	Re: another low in Caribbean
	Quote: looks like a low trying to form at about 10N/78 or 79W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

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