| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 12:32 AM |
Bring on the Weather!
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How diatribe has life become with the sleepy seas giving nothing to eat up sound bites much less to start threads worth taking effort to join. And yet we seem to persist onward! Hence the title. Nature hasn’t been very forthcoming this season, but hopefully will start to show her womanly wiles by mid July. I’ve noticed that the upper level winds have started to become more favorable for some tropical development in the Atlantic, GOM, and the Caribbean sea, and it is here I have turned my hopeful eyes and thread. We all know that the peak for a showstopper has to make an appearance by August, and I would like to see some action well before then. I’m counting the eyes and crisscrossing all seas that July brings ‘em on!!
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: Bring on the Weather!
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John C.
Thanks for the new forum! I still foresee things picking up within the next two weeks. And I think we'll see Alex by 7/15.
For anyone who didn't read the last few posts of the last topic, John C. has entrusted me with "moderator" status. This is quite an honor, but with it comes responsibility. Until ED returns, I need you guys to keep your posts "on topic". Otherwise, I have been given the power to "EDit" posts. However, unlike Ed, as long as you're ON TOPIC, you have nothing to fear, and I have complete faith in the 'members' and most of the anon posters as well. What we really want to avoid are the Matthew's, Paloma's and Isaroni's. When it's slow, an off-topic post is fine (ala the Lightning winning the stanley cup). Just don't want the entire thread going down that road.
So, anyhow, I want to thank you guys in advance and hope you appreciate the status that John has imparted to me.
And, hey, let's let the tropical mischief begin already, huh?
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 01:01 AM |
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Re: Bring on the Weather!
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Say What John! Well....maybe some poetic justice in all this somewhere this season. But you're right, the environment seems to be getting right for tropical development. I actually thought that the wave at 50W Thursday was gonna blossom, but the ridge is pushing and shoving things along and south. But it is a sign that the season should be turning the corner and ready to produce. where is ole' Ed anyhow? As a fellow south Brevardian, I'd like to know if he's OK.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 01:13 AM |
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Ed Dunham
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For those concerned about Ed Dunham, I have not heard from Ed myself, I have just found his work phone # and since it is Friday night I will have to wait till Tuesday to try to call his Job to see what is going on. But thanks for all those of you who are concerned about Ed.
-John
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 01:16 AM |
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Re: Bring on the Weather!
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First of all congrats Phil for being a moderator while ED is away and I know that you wll do an excellent job.
Agree about the season about to turn the corner as the MJO spills into the Atlantic so it is a matter of time to begin tracking the storms..
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 01:19 AM |
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Re: Bring on the Weather!
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Congratulations LI Phil for making moderator status, just don't edit mine,kidding (lol) na, usually I try to stay weather topic related.
Sure hope Ed is OK though, hopefully everything is all right with him.
Don't see anything happening soon, think it'l be in late July before we see our first storm, maybe it'l be like another "Andrew" year (1992) where the A storm didn't develop until Aug.
I guess til then we can watch the W Pac as there almost always seems to be activity there.
TG
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 01:29 AM |
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Luis & AJ!
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Thx for the kind words and encouragement.
You guys have nothing to fear (as far as editing goes). Always enjoy your posts and hope you continue to make more.
I think we're all wishing the season would crank, and I still think it will, just give it a week to ten days.
This will be my last post this evening, and possibly for the weekend, and I'll be away from computer access until Monday. So, help a fellow CFHCer out and keep everything on the up and up.
Think things will really start firing up after next week...and everyone, check the calendar for your Alex predictions...some of you may nail it right on the head.
Until such time as our Country (sorry James88 & Rich B) celebrates our 228th birthday, "Keep your eyes to the skies" and your fingers on your keyboards..
LI Phil
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 02:52 AM |
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Preparations
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Since it is still slow out there and we are not tracking any storms...figure I would throw something out there to talk about. How many people have taken precautions for their homes? Have you installed hurricane panels, added a "safe room", modified your roof, etc?
We had our house built about 1.5 years ago and it meets the new local hurricane code...actually the builder choose the hurricane code for the next county to the south which is more stringent. All walls are concrete block (steel reinforced w/ poured concrete). Upon completion I had all windows fitted with the stronger .063 aluminum panels - direct mount - and the patio covered with Armor Screen - a really cool product but a little expensive (www.armorscreen.com). I also had them include a single clear insert panel for some of the windows so I can see outside (for stronger storms such at a cat 3 or more I wouldn't put this in and I would evacuate). The garage door is rated at 130 mph but I still had it fitted for panels (figure if we have a major storm, it would get dented badly).
Also, what is the threshold most of you would evacuate...I would stay up to a Cat 3..we are on an island which would be cut-off to emergency response. Having a child makes a difference...otherwise I would stay through a Cat 4 for which the house is supposed to be able to withstand.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 09:59 AM |
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Re: Preparations
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Is it just me, or does the wave east of the Windward Islands look like it is becoming slightly better organised?
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 11:17 AM |
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Re: Preparations
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The shear is too strong there to let the wave develop into a tropical entity although more rain we can expect in the islands which haved been in a surplus in terms of rainfall but no correlation between how the rainfall is in the islands with how the hurricane season will be.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Bring on the Weather!
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Way to go LI Phil! Now you are in a higher tax bracket and get travel discounts
Soon I hope we have something to watch!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 02:15 PM |
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Happy Birthday America
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Just checking in and also checking out. Will be away till Monday. Everyone behave
and have a great Independence Day.Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 03 2004 05:32 PM |
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Re: Happy Birthday America
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*yawns at Atlantic*
Have a great weekend everyone!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 04 2004 04:05 AM |
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The USA at 228 and in decline...
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too many people out to rip off too many others
. Happy July 4th to everyone (including Ed wherever he is - btw Ed, give me back my access to "questionable"!!!)
Around the tropics this fine July 3rd we find TS Mindulle on its way to the Korean Peninsula. Otherwise 02NONAME in the EPAC got nudged off the shelf at NRL. It's remnant moisture will probably just head on west and die.
The Austrailian Government Board of Meteorology has released the June ENSO conditions and forecast. Coming as no surprise, the conditions are "Neutral". In the 5 month lead-time (and remember, we're in July where the skill gets better than in March-June), 3 of the models predict "WARM" conditions (LDEO4, JMA, SSES/OHIO). 8 models call for continued Neutral conditions and 1 is not available. In the 8 month lead time (which would put us in February 2005), 1 of 8 models reporting is calling for Warm while the other 7 favor continued Neutral.
Hurry! Hurry! Step righ this way...
As of yesterday, the high-res SST's (Actual) are running warmest off the West Coast of Florida (particularly the Keys), south of Cuba and across the Bahamas. Is this temporary or part of this season's water temperature evolution? How bout both?
High Res SST's
Southern Oscillation Index is neutral. Last 4 daily values have been 4.5, 3.5, -0.20 and 0.00. Probably a lull in the WESTPAC action for the next few days in response:
Long Paddock
NAO is neutral and forecast to remain roughly that way through the 15th of the month:
NAO Forecast from NCEP
PNA is neutral and forecast neutral to positive over the first 15 days of July.
PNA forecasted Neutral
The Artic Oscillation is negative, forecast to neutral and back to negative. You'll just have to take my word for it because I'm not providing the link
.
---------------------------------------------
Currently on the playing field are a few waves traversing the Atlantic, some troughiness off the SE Coast. The wave that moved off of Africa recently is the first one with the SW pointing outflow jet. That's always a good sign that hurricane nirvana is just around the corner.
Monsoon's still craking in India and there's a real colorful wave moving across the Indian Ocean if you have access to a colorized IR of there. I don't feel like digging through all my links.
Here's the visible showing the monsoon from India
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 04 2004 04:11 AM |
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Re: The USA at 228 and in decline...
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What was the point I was trying to make about all that Neutrality? Oh wait, it's not Ireland's or Switzerland's birthday
One last thing. The NWS Corpus Christi has begun to hint at effects of a potential wave in the Gulf toward next weekend. Additionally, the GFS has begun to play around as well. It's the holiday weekend, so I'm not in research mode right now. But you can find a couple links to the stories on S2K.
Steve
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 04 2004 06:27 PM |
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Potential for development
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The Atlantic is still fairly quiet, with 3 waves present. However, some computer models are suggesting that the wave located at 60 west, 17 north could track west-northwest towards the Carribean by mid-week with showers and thunderstorms and turn northwest towards South Florida by later in the week. Accuweather say that the wave will be monitored for further progress. Perhaps this wave could have a shot at becoming Alex or a tropical depression in a few days.
I have to agree that the Atlantic could be about to become active. The conditions are becoming more favourable. Still, it is probably going to be around a 50/50 chance. Since 1950, 31 out of 54 seasons have had some kind of tropical system form during July. It remains to be seen whether 2004 will join those years.
BTW, does Joe B. foresee anything in the near future?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 04 2004 07:39 PM |
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Re: Potential for development
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steve, usa in decline? i don't see anybody else in the world i'd want filling our shoes who could... so lets hope that isn't the case. regardless there are enough of us who won't go down quietly.
earlier on i made a post contrary to rob m's on how the tropics would behave this month.. if model trends are going to hold out then i might lose that one. the mid-latitude development i was looking for would need amplification and pattern shifs.. all those neutral signals paired with a zonal appearance on gfs by mid-month (once the current kinks get worked out) depth-charge my idea. steve gave the heads-up on the current wave (think it's really at 45w).. models have been a little wishy-washy with it, and have trended south. by mid-week we should have a good fix on its real potential. other waves will emerge.. two more significant ones appear on gfs plots.. the first is depicted as getting too far north and caught for a few days in the mid-atlantic in a ridge split.. the second pushes across to the caribbean much like the one currently entering the area should. out of the aforementioned systems i do expect a named tropical cyclone to develop. right now the pattern is transitioning and some of the trough energy east of florida (70w) may also try to fester, though there isn't a convincing model depiction of this.
anyhow, one other thing i'd like to note. wave speed right now appears a bit slower than normal.. low level easterlies don't seem quite as strong. as the ridge flattens out this may change, but i suspect that if the waves keep the throttle settings the same and mjo goes negative and knocks the shear down, systems will have a relatively easy time organizing. could be active later this month.
HF 1939z04july
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 04 2004 08:04 PM |
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Re: Potential for development
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Sounds like we'll have to keep our eyes to the East for the next couple of weeks.
Wasn't it about this time last year that the pre-Claudette wave was making it's way towards the Caribbean? Pfff, early July and the 4th system was about to form. What a difference a year makes!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 03:12 AM |
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searching for Alex
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Ive been looking at the tropics everyday, and nothing is piquing my interest. Right now the only thing even remotely interesting is a wave emerging off Africa, which looks like it has a twist to it. However my wager would be that it dies a quick death over the eastern atlantic(Its still early) Anyway, it would be nice for my namesake storm to be a nice long lived Cape Verde one.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 03:29 AM |
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Re: searching for Alex
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The longer range GFS model is showing conditions are improving and even show some lows developing...but of course that is a long way off. Here are some cool links to GFS models...
0Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/0/gfsslp.html
6Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/6/gfsslp.html
12Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/12/gfsslp.html
18Z run
http://www.hurricanetrack.com/animation/gfs/18/gfsslp.html
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 01:20 PM |
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Re: searching for Alex
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I have to say, the wave that recently rolled off the coast of Africa still looks fairly impressive, and looks quite organised. It may well fall apart by this evening, but if it holds together...
This one could be interesting.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 01:27 PM |
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hi..boo
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hi from orlando, cant talk just wanted to say hi and hope you all are having a good vacation
looking over topics
what about the wave in the atlantic, has nice color on ir
ok..back to vacation
bobbi
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: hi..boo
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The wave looks pretty good on satellite imagery. Check out the curvature present in the convection:-
Tropical Wave
It has emerged into an area of reasonably warm waters:-
Atlantic SSTs
The air is also fairly moist, so it is not as though the wave has moved into an area that is completely unfavourable - it has a few things going for it. Does anyone have any thoughts on the system?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 02:53 PM |
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Interesting Wave
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Yeah James88, what you're seeing is for real. That wave even looks to have some circulation. Nothing Earth-shattering but it's a pretty decent wave considering we're only on July 5th.
FWIW, I also looked at the 1000mb 372 hour GFS on AWPro. This particular model run actually amplifies some of this convection just before reaching the Caribbean on July 13. Take this for what it is worth...
On another note...the GFS also shows a decrease in shear across most of the Atlantic. The exception to this is the eastern Atlantic, which still has a few patchy areas around 372 hours. This is a long way out, but we should start seeing a decrease in shear towards the end of July if we are indeed going to have the season start up around the climotological norm.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: Interesting Wave
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It is a very decent wave considering it is so early in July. If it were early September this system would probably become a CV quite soon.
Thinking about it, a CV storm could form sooner than that. On this day in 1996, Hurricane Bertha formed (although I will admit it didn't reach hurricane status until a couple of days later). Maybe if it holds together for a while longer we'll have an invest. However, that's a big 'if'.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Interesting Wave
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TPC is even looking at that wave coming off of Africa, but they'll play a wait and see for now. No invest as of this morning.
On a local note, we've had 20 inches of rain in the last 34 days in north FL. The second wettest June in history. My yard is going nuts. Pretty soon you'll be able to go from the Gulf to the Atlantic in a boat right across the Georgia-Alabama state lines......
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 04:04 PM |
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Re: Interesting Wave
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"WATER TEMPERATURES AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE MARGINAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION."
There are plenty of cases of tropical systems forming in marginal conditions. Anyway, conditions should become more favourable as the system moves westward, so if it can hold together and continue to show signs of organisation, we may have something in a few days. This should definately be watched.
It would help if it formed soon because my July 7th guess for first storm would be bang on
(hopefully).
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:09 PM |
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95L for eaat atlantic wave
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
A very interesting wave indeed for this time of the year so far out but it has to fight with enviromental conditions to survive but it is the first wave in that area that really looks somewhat promising.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:20 PM |
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95L for eastern atlantic wave
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Conditions look ok from my perspective, just looked at the shear maps and sst's and it seems as if it might be favorable for some development. However, the way I looked at it conditions to the north of the wave's current location would be a little more hostile. The shear across the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken through 48 hours according to Unisys shear forecasts. Seems this one is being watched a little closer, so an invest has been issued.
Lets see what NHC has to say in their 2:05pm TWD
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: 95L for eaat atlantic wave
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Maybe this could be a candidate for Tropical Depression #1 or perhaps even Alex. I suppose the next 24 hours will be crucial as to whether the system develops into a named entity. Even so, it seems to be holding together a little better than its predecessors (at the moment).
From the satellite image, there even seems to be a tight circulation.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:32 PM |
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looking at conditions...
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Ive never been very good at analyzing upper level winds, so i will try to focus on the water temperatures. It seems that at 10N (the location of our candidate) the waters are warm enough to support a depression or storm. Anyway, I gotta give it a good chance at becoming something, because although it doesnt have much convection, you cant miss the circulation.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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All that's needed is for some convection to develop at or near the centre, and we could have the first system of 2004. Maybe the next TWO will reveal the situation. The TWD (which coincidentially changes its format tomorrow) might also provide some useful information.
I agree with you Alex - the SSTs out there seem reasonably favourable to support something.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:36 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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I agree with Alex K on the water temperatures, i think now its over open water, we should wait to see if more convection fires up. Also looked at the water vapor imagery and can't see any dry air that could interfere with further organization just yet.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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It is comparatively rare for a tropical system of any description to form this far east in early July. In recent years, this kind of storm tends to become classified about halfway between Africa and the Caribbean. However, weather is unpredictable, and there can usually be an exception to a rule. I wonder what Joe. B has got to say about the invest.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:50 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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Either way, shear will still be light according to forecasts even half way between africa and the caribbean, and sst's look pretty consistent for the whole strech of Atlantic at the wave's current latitude, guess we will see whether or not climatology gets the better of this one.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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Whatever the case, the invest looks like it could be fairly close to becoming classified. I may be wrong, but then I've seen lots of systems much less impressive than this one become classified. An often quoted example is TD #4 in 2000.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 06:00 PM |
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95L invest for East Atlantic wave
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If in the movement to the west it gains convection near the center then it will have a great chance to be the first TD and even Tropical Storm Alex but all the factors have to be there but time will tell.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: looking at conditions...
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Having development this far east is unusual, but after viewing the vis loop, there is a nice circulation taking shape. Convection is being enhanced to its west and southwest along the ITCZ, and a spot to the circulations NW. They don't put invests up for nothing, so there must be potential in their eyes. Heck, we're in the first week in July, so anything in the basin CAN happen, especially considering an anomalously warm Atlantic in many parts. I'm excited (it don't take much)
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 06:16 PM |
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More satellite imagery
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The link below will provide some more satellite imagery. Take a look at the IR Floater off the coast of Africa, does it look like convection is decreasing slightly?
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
by the way 2:05pm TWD, not saying much we didn't already know, just that strong rotation is noted and that tropical cyclone formation has not been known to occur this early in the hurricane season, this far east.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 07:20 PM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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This is Colleen....I have to post as "anonymous" because I can't remember my doggone password..ARGH!
Hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July! We enjoyed ours. We went to the Pepsi 400 in Daytona and got hammered by a severe storm. Ouch! Three guys got hit by lightning by the merchandise trailers, but they all lived to tell about it (how, I don't know) and were even able to go watch the race! Amazing! I guess a better question to ask would be why they were at the merchadise trailers in the first place with that kind of storm going on. It takes all kinds....which my 8-year noticed.
As we were making our way into the racetrack, he noted the following:"There sure are a lot of drunk people here, Mom! (pauses for a moment)....oh yeah, it's a race!! You're supposed to be drunk! DUH!"
Kids.....they don't miss a trick, eh?
Re: the wave/invest/tpc statement. I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane? I'm sure it fizzled out but I do remember thinking at the time that it would be an active season, and I think it was either last year or the year before. I'm sure someone knows. I'm sure the TPC is "thinking" that this wave has a little potential but not much, but for them to mention it at all speaks for itself. As for marginal conditions...well, who knows what could happen. Maybe this will be a rogue storm. I don't remember Andrew being forecast to be a Cat4-5 or for it to hit south Florida, either. But he did, and the rest is history! Never underestimate Mother Nature. Just when she's got you down for your nap, she comes screaming back into the room to tell you it's time to get up!
It looks like we might see some nasty weather here in Polk County. It looks as though Hillsborough is taking a severe beating at the present moment.
Hope all is okay with Ed. I'm sure we'll hear soon.
Colleen
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 05 2004 07:34 PM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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Quote:
I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane?
Last year we had TD #2 form on the 11th June, but it was nowhere near as far east as this one. We're into July, and it's possible for a CV to form now, we just need the right wave to come along (and 95L could be the one).
(July6th) That was weird - couldn't access the site for about 12 hours. Oh well, it works again now.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:14 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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James88,
Yeah Me too. Hopefully everythings OK. Down for a while here too,
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:34 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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At least no posts or users were lost - with any luck the problem's fixed. On another note, 95L seems to have held together fairly well overnight. Persistence is the key. Meanwhile, another impressive wave is poised to exit Africa in the next few hours. I wouldn't expect very much from that one though.
DO you think that our friend in the Atlantic will develop into 2004's first system, or is it another false alarm?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:42 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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Hey guys,
well it seems 95L is still holding its own. I see the NHC say showers have decreased in the past 6 hours, but the TNumbers from SSD would show the system is getting more organised - TOO WEAK at 0000UTC, but now 1.0/1.0 at 0530UTC. NRL also give the system 25 knot winds but dont have an available pressure at present. Certainly looks to be a good candidate for development, and NHC even say it is still possible depsite the decrease in shower activity overnight.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:50 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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Maybe the decrease in shower activity is just a fluctuation, and therefore temporary. Time will tell I suppose. Whatever happens, this is the first serious candidate for Alex since the Gulf disturbance a few weeks ago. Maybe my guess of July 7th will be right. (If so, it was a pure guess and was not based on meteorological statistics - except perhaps the MJO factor).
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 11:39 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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Most recent visible imagery of 95L shows that a convective band is increasing in size and intensity to the north of the mid-level circulation, while significant convective activity continues to the south. No new TNumbers as yet, by i also notice the UK METO has been running test messages on this system too, and take it to a minimal tropical storm in 36 hours, and maintain it around 40 knots for the following few days.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 11:42 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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At least the wave has mantained alive although overnight convection decreased.Now let's see persistance of the circulation and form deep convection near the circulation and we will have a TD but still is far from that.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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There does seem to be some convection developing nearer to the centre, although it doesn't appear that deep. Still, it's making progress. As Cycloneye said it has done well to maintain its organisation overnight.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 12:02 PM |
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Re: More satellite imagery
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I agree Richard. I believe their TWO came out before the increase in convection. Looks better now than last night when I went to bed. I'd bet chances are better than average that this will develop; that is, if it doesn't get runover by the next wave! Hey, Colleen! You enjoy the race? Friends of ours went also and got rained on (not zapped though). Stick around. THings will get real interesting this season. Good to see you back in the saddle again Ed! Cheers all!!
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: June CV storm
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There was a TS that formed in June a few years ago out by the Cape Verdes, don't remember the name and no time to look it up right now, but, you are correct Colleen---it was the earliest a storm had formed so far east while records have been kept, as I recall.
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 02:18 PM |
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Bertha don't you come around here, anymore...
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SC et. al.
'Twas Bertha, 1996. (actually formed early July, but I think that's the one you mean...)
Bertha
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 02:58 PM |
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Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore...
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I notice that Bertha passed over Long Island as a tropical storm after making landfall in NC as a CAT 2 a couple of days previously. What was the storm like for your neck of the woods Phil?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 03:06 PM |
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Bertha
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Funny thing about Bertha. Passed through fairly late in the evening. At the time I was living with my wife in an apartment so I didn't have to be worried about flying deck debris, tomato plant destruction, tree limbs through the window, etc., (and wasn't quite as into the weather as now), so aside from being a rainmaker, it was kinda "ho-hum". We had some winds (again, nothing to write home about). As a whole, Bertha wasn't much by the time she passed through. No downed trees, no power loss, no flooding. Thanks for asking though. We've had much worse from the copious nor'easters that pass through once or twice a year.
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 03:22 PM |
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Re: Bertha
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I suppose that by and large, most of the systems that approach LI are much weaker than they were previously (except for Gloria, to name an example).
BTW, it is looking like we'll be experiencing something with similar conditions to those in the UK by tomorrow. The met-office here is warning of a system that will cut across the country, bringing up to 5cm of rain and gusts in excess of 50mph. Nothing big, but it's something.
As for 95L, it's looking a little ragged compared to a few hours ago. Still, the environment is not unfavourable for development, so this one will need to be watched as it makes its way across the Atlantic.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 03:36 PM |
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LI 'Canes
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James,
Actually, LI has had it's fair share of big 'uns (though nothing like Andrew, Camille, Labor Day Cane, Great Galveston,etc.), but pretty powerful none the less. Thing is, most canes to hit LI are Cat I-II (except for a few), but they are moving at an incredible forward speed (LI Express, for example, moving at 70MPH!!!), so those to the right of the eye really get whalloped. And except for Gloria, we really haven't seen anything bad for a long time...which totally lends itself to complacency. Unfortunately, the NY media hyped the S--- out of Isabel, and we got almost nada from that, so the next time one comes near, people will blow off the threat. Some of LI/NY's worst storms came before any of us were born.. 1815, 1825, 1841, 1893; others were a long time ago: 1938 (LI Express) 1944, 1954 (Carol), 1955 (Diane), 1960 (Donna). Statistically, we're more than due.
Here's a link to some LI canes. Hope you find it interesting.
LI Canes
Will have to go look at 95L. Joe B doesn't think anything will come of it for now, but if it can drift to the west carib...which the GFS is intimating...then it could possibly become Alex.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 03:56 PM |
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Re: LI 'Canes
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Thanks for the interesting link, Phil. I stand corrected - sounds as though the people of LI have endured some powerful storms over the years. Hopefully, 2004 won't be one of those years.
Talking about the LI Express - 70MPH!!! Wow! When was the last time a hurricane moved that fast? I would have thought a hurricane moving at such a fast pace would have trouble in maintaining CAT 3 intensity. Obviously not in this case. I don't like the sound of those 183mph gusts either!
Good luck for the season ahead!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 04:04 PM |
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LI Express
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James,
The "LI Express" holds the record for the fastest moving hurricane EVER.
Check this out!
May take you a while to get through, but it's interesting reading during the slow times.
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: LI Express
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Thanks Phil, that really was interesting reading. That was one ferocious storm! Not exactly small either, at 500 miles wide. It must have been a truly terrifying storm to experience. We really are very lucky to live in an age of satellite technology and early warnings. It was lucky that the hurricane had weakened from CAT 5 status!
I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 04:50 PM |
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Glad ED is okay
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I was beginning to worry because Phil was so concerned. This whole thread reads a lot like my highschool yearbook. I dated someone named Ed (common name) and there was more about Ed in my yearbook than me. Nope didn't marry him but am sure somewhere someone is still talking about him. Maybe its the name.
Either way I'm glad you are okay and you have a really concerned friend.
Is that wave going to really develop?
And, I have a question.
If you live in a hurricane prone area is it safe to have air conditioning ducts installed on the roof out to an addition. I'm a little worried because we have that and it would make sense to me that a really weak storm could rip those AC duct work off and let air into the house.
Is this possible and how strong would the storm have to be?
Or am I worrying too much.
Welcome home Ed
Cat
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 04:54 PM |
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Re: LI Express
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>>> I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
Yeah--as far as tropical storms go. The worst part was the power outages. We were out for six days, others had to wait up to two weeks!
We've also had some nasty nor'easters and ice stroms that weren't much fun. I'd go through a Gloria again as long as I knew all the food in my fridge wouldn't spoil
. Don't think I'd want part of a LI Express though (at least not to the East).Back on topic...the wave off Africa definitely needs to be watched, as does the even stronger one in it's wake. Should these survive the trek across the pond, they will definitely be causing some trouble mid-next week. We might get Alex & Bonnie in the same breath.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 04:55 PM |
Re: LI Express
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It's Colleen again....still can't remember my password.
Anyhoo, I'm a little surprised that the TPC (who are probably as bored as we are, I might add) would take the time to type in "showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave.....are not as well organized as they were yesterday" and then go on to mention that "upper level winds have become more favorable" and then "development...if any...would be slow to occur".It seems to me that they are now looking at this wave a little differently; yet, their statement kind of differs. It is also entirely possible that I spend way too much time inferring things from the TWO, also.
Colleen
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:00 PM |
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Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore...
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Actually, this is what I was thinking of , forgot it wasn't offcially classified as a TS...
Tropical Depression Two
23 - 25 June 2000
Miles B. Lawrence
National Hurricane Center
1 July 2000
Tropical Depression Two formed from a tropical wave on 23 June, soon after moving from Africa to the far eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean and while centered a little over 300 nautical miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The depression moved due westward at 15 to 20 knots for nearly three days and weakened to an open wave on the 25th in the central tropical Atlantic. Scatterometer surface wind data suggests that the depression may have been close to tropical storm strength for a short period on the 23rd.
sc
I remember Bertha very well!! I was on the the east coast then, and we battened down....
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:05 PM |
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Re: Off Fl?
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There has been a persistent feature that late last week moved off SC and is still there and seems to be getting a bit better organized....it may be our first storm if the trend continues.....or, am I seeing things??
sc
| James88 |
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| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:05 PM |
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Re: Bertha don't you come around here, anymore...
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If a TD can form that far east in June, then surely we won't have much longer to wait for development, seeing as we're in July. 95L, while still looking a little ragged is doing well to hold itself together thus far. As Phil said, if it can make it across to the Caribbean we could have Alex really soon. I'm starting to get quite impatient!
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:10 PM |
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Re: Off Fl?
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That system does seem a little better organised. It kinda looks like Christobal when she was forming in 2002. If it was seen as a candidate for development, it would probably be mentioned in the TWO. Check it out later - maybe it will be mentioned.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:11 PM |
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Re: LI Express
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That is what I would term "slime-weasel" wording
Although the 16Z loop says to me that the circulation is "re-organizing" to the SW. 12Z GFS likes both waves, as it has one east of the Bahamas at 172 and at the same time one threatening the islands (Windwards). These TWOs like this Emphasize the negative and denounce the positive. The old "bait and switch." Yor're not too sensitive to inferring things into the words Colleen; its ALL about the words Anyhow, as a former LI'er I went through Donna and Bell and Gloria. Gloria basically sheared its way through LI, Bell was much more organized than Gloria when it came through, and the eye passed over my house. But Gloria caused much more damage with the power outages and downed trees. I also thought the T-shirts were in poor taste and didn't but one
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:23 PM |
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Belle
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Steve H.
Funny you mention Belle...that's actually "my first storm" and what got me into the weather to begin with. I remember it like yesterday, too. I was 10 years old, my dad took me to McDonalds and I was wondering why they were putting up masking tape (of all things) over the windows. O'course, we didn't have TWC back then (or even cable), so there really wasn't much to watch...anyway, we had two 80' willow trees in the backyard, and the next morning, there was only one. It fell between my house and my neighbors house (5' either way and it would have hit either house). Very lucky we were indeed. Well, the next day I went to the library and took out a small paperback entitled "Hurricanes and Tornados". The library never received the book back -- I think my parents paid the fine, unbeknownst to me. It's probably still at my parents' house somewhere.
Sorry for the lengthy reply, Steve. Since you mentioned it, how bad was Donna? And were you here for Carol & Diane?
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 05:42 PM |
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Donna
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An impressive, though terrifying storm. Interesting to note that Donna is the only hurricane of record to produce hurricane-force winds in Florida, the Mid-Atlantic states, and New England. A ''quadruple whammy'' (if you'll pardon the expression). It hits the Leeward Islands as a CAT 4 hurricane, moves on to slam into Florida as a CAT 4, recurves to strike a glacing blow to NC as a CAT 2, and then makes final landfall in LI as a CAT 2. Thankfully hurricanes that strike several places in a row do not occur all that often. Was anyone on the board in Florida when it passed through?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 06:02 PM |
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the 2 prospects
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First of all, there definitely is a circulation almost due south of Bermuda. I however, cannot tell if it is upper level, mid level, or at the surface. However, it does look like the circulation is getting better defined. As far as the low in the Eastern Atlantic is concerned, I dont think that it has a great chance of developing right now, but I wouldnt be surprised if it tried to form when it got a little farther west.(Bertha formed at 35 west). Right now it doesnt seem too organized, but it may be as i said, able to develope in a couple of days
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 06:08 PM |
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One more thing
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Obviously the people who write the tropical weather outlook are not the same people who write the discussion.
From the outlook"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE"
From the discussion-"THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK."
I wish that the official authority on this could coordinate what they are saying
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: One more thing
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Alex,
Yes, they are written by different persons...the outlooks are issued by one of the following:
Dr. Lixion Avila
Dr. Jack Beven
James L. Franklin
Miles Lawrence
Dr. Richard Pasch
Stacy Stewart
who are NHC/TPC Hurricane Specialists.
The most recent Discussion was written by Jamie R. Rhome, who is with NOAA.
You can tell who issued what forecast, as their names appear at the end of the statements. I believe that even within the NHC, different forecasters can issue rather divergent forecasts based upon the same data...their "style" if you will.
I'm not certain if the NHC guys issue Discussions as well, or if that is entirely separate. Maybe one of our Mets can clear that up.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 07:00 PM |
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Good catch!
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Alex, sometimes it does seem (or is ) that the left hand does not know what the right is saying!
Features of note:
Nice cyclonic curvature developing over Nicaragua. If it came N instead of west???
There is a system s of Bermuda, east of Fl---it is getting better developed; but, as you say, hard to tell if it is a surface feature--looks like it is.
Interesting upper low NE of PR, may be helping to ventilate feature noted s of Bermuda??
and our incipient TD or two, off Africa----it IS getting busier..
sc
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 07:08 PM |
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Re: One more thing
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Discussion have input from NHC/TPC and FNMOC, reason I think you may shows all inputs with agreement. I have always lean on the discussion inputs until you get a name storm.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 08:06 PM |
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Re: One more thing
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Looks like the MJO factor is well and truly taking hold in the Atlantic basin. How long is this likely to last for?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:27 PM |
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Things really heating up
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Things are really heating up a bit now, 3 areas mentioned in the 5:30pm TWO. Some of which have already been identified by a few of our posters. I have a feeling we may see a couple more invests on these.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A FEW
HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE
CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 750 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS ALSO
MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 MPH AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 200 MILES
SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:48 PM |
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Re: Things really heating up
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Hey guys,
well it looks like we may see some real activity soon! The latest outlook mentioning three potential areas. All of these areas have a chance at becoming TD 1 in my opinion. Our old friend southwest of the Cape Verde Islands remains strong, but not too well organised just yet. Still holding together nicely though. The other area mentioned southeast of the Lesser Antilles also shows some signs of development.
But the surprise for me is the system to the south of Bermuda. This has flared up quite nicely and, as some of you have already mentioned, appears to have some form of circulation at some level. I think right now this has the highest chance of becoming something more soon.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:49 PM |
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shift
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evening mjo's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer, cause i had lots of things to say last night that have been brought up today. and covered, so i'll just rehash and give my interpretation.
the wave out in front that looked like a carib/gulf development threat over the weekend has very little signature and enough easterly momentum that it won't have an opportunity to do anything. gfs is tracking two waves it considers development worthy--it maintains 95L until the weekend then develops a weak surface system early next week for the islands.. as it runs into shear ahead of an upper low max backing along the tutt axis. it then promptly loses the system, not via shear, but by the dulling of resolution past 7 days (the remnant moisture plods onward to florida by the end of next week). a couple days behind it a second system, which it treats a bit more favorable, trods along on a more southerly track, checked by easterly shear on the se flank of the upper ridge max in tandem with the upper low ahead. makes some sense, but these are just ballpark until a better fix on either system is attained.
right now i'd give either of these features a moderate development chance. both will probably have to get east of 40w to do anything, and will be contending with variable shear profiles and whatever SAL has in the mix. 95L will probably pulse down for a day or two, then reinvigorate as it gets near 40w. the trailer i'm less sure about (its trajectory will have to be similar to 95L or it will lose its definition/potential). i wouldn't look for a named system down there prior to july 10-11, and a lot can happen between now and then to preclude any of that. 30-40% on either.. net 50% that something happens at all.
more immediately there is that old piece of front south of bermuda. sc and alex k have identified this thing and pretty much explained it. fish spinner fodder, but presently it has the best chance to go soonest. it will probably meander for a couple days, then jerk NE along with a shortwave max.. but until then there appears to be a mid-level low and surface trough there, and it is looking better all the time. i like it, 50% right now. i'm wondering why the nhc hasn't mentioned it (as usual with stuff in fish-spinner land).
anyway, mjo has the switch on. james88 i've heard mjo lasts 30-40 days, but watching the motion anomaly maps (haven't had that page work in a while) a couple years back and the longitude/time diagrams you can see now.. it doesn't really move in linear pulses, but propagates eastward with a sort of discontinous, skippy pace. in my experience it's usually been 2-3 weeks that the basin will be alight, with an odd week on either side. sometimes a little mini-pulse will come by. there's really no telling.. without the time-series anomaly maps i don't have a real clue. anyway james, i guess you must know rich byett (you two are in gloucester and the only folks in europe i ever see post). enjoy what summer you guys have up there. actually, you ought to try something we can't do at my latitude.. think you can photograph some noctilucent clouds?
HF 2150z06july
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: shift
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as soon as i open my mouth they go and mention the bermuda disturbance. thats great, but they trumped me on the 45-50w wave. it's kinda.. low in latitude. since it hadn't gained since yesterday and is going to scuttle in south america if it doesn't, i'm doubting... don't think much of it. moderator or cornelius bros (cornelii?), almost time for a new thread. i suggest jamiewx's last header, anyway.. things are indeed heating up.
HF 2155z06july
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 06 2004 11:08 PM |
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Re: shift
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HF,
2 solid posts, as always. Yeah, the site was down for like 13 hours yesterday, not sure why. Maybe Mike was trying something new out.
Good call on the disturbance southwest of Bermuda (even though you weren't the first to call it...you probably would have been last night could anyone have logged on). What chances would you give it of becoming named (or at least a TD)? Looking at the skatomometer (sp) #s on the first African wave, it looks like it could be a TD too.
As far as a new thread, I don't know if I have the "power" to make a new one, but I'll agree, Jamiewx' suggestion would be great for a new one. That call is up to Ed, John or Mike, not me, but I'll toss my hat into the ring for that...
Saw that the MJO made it all the way to Africa, so lets give it 2-3 weeks for major action, but I'll still bet we get a TD within the next week. If either or both African waves make it to the w carrib, watch out...everything's coming into play nicely now.
JoeB was opining today that the TUTT, firmly entrenched now, will lift up early next week, allowing plenty of ridging that could get 95L (and possibly 96L) past the Antilles and into the w carrib. Certainly bears watching.
And HF, loved the "latin" reference with the plural of the brothers Cornelius. It's been 20 years, but, I do believe that would be the "Brothers Cornelii".
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 12:11 AM |
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Atlantic is heating up
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The title ATLANTIC IS HEATING UP is my suggestion about heading of thread when ED updates it.HF as always great posts and let's see what happens in comming days and weeks as the mjo has made it into the atlantic.Bermuda disturbance to me has the best shot right now to develop into something as those waves in the east and central atlantic dont have ideal conditions.That disturbance near Bermuda may be trapped in weak steering or it is going to eject NE that is the question now about movement of that system.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 12:18 AM |
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Re: Atlantic is heating up
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Luis/"C-eye"
Gotta think that disturbance south of bermuda has the best chance for quick development, but nothing down the road. Question to me is "will it make TD status". I think if NHC decides the T #s are there, it will and then may give it an invest. Probably doubtful for a plane, as it's no danger to any landmass, but this could just skew everyone's #s down the road. If I can (doubtful) make a new thread, I will call it "The Atlantic Is Heating Up" in honor of James88/Jamiewx & HF's calls. Think all are in agreement that things are indeed HEATING UP!
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 01:46 AM |
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getting active......but
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Neither of the three systems immediately seems like it will develop. Convection of the Bermuda system is on the wane, but may wax tommorrow. As you all know, weak systems often do that. However, the convection wane on the eastern atlantic seems to be more permanent. However, it may develop farther down the road as this is July. The system which it is farthest south in the Atlantic seems interesting,convection is high, maybe even a twist, but it looks like it will plow into south america. However, i bet we have turned some kind of corner. There are a train of waves in Africa, and i think its only time until one system gets its act together.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: getting active......but
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YES YES YES
finally something to watch and wait with...
sharpening pencils... this is just the beginning....
1, 2, and 3 and it is finally here..... now where is my map?
waiting for Alex... if not now then for sure it is coming soon..
warming water.. wonderful...
keep your eyes open for sure. The tropics just might bring rain to Florida maybe Tuesday or Wednesday next week.
watching the maps ...
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 03:40 AM |
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Patience Please
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I've quickly scanned all the posts while I was away (and the cats DID play)! Many excellent contributions, including many on Tuesday that really would have been better suited to the Hurricane History Forum
With the Atlantic showing signs of potential activity (see the Storm Forum) it is now time to stay on topic. Use the correct Forums for your posts and keep your posts oriented to the tropics.Its not time for a new Main Page article yet...but we may be getting close.
Thanks,
ED
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 07:39 AM |
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Re: Patience Please
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The southernmost wave has gotten a little better organised overnight, and if it was a bit further north it would probably have a good chance for development. However, as Alex said, it is about to slam into South America, so don't expect anything big.
BTW, looks like another huge wave is about to exit the African coast. Check out this image - plenty of storms across the continent moving towards the Atlantic. On a lesser note, it also shows the intense low-pressure system that will move across the UK through today and tomorrow:-
The waves of tomorrow?
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: shift
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I felt the same as HF on the wave se of the Windwards---got a nice signature, but way too low. It's going to run in Guiana, but, if it gains a little latitude it could be a S America coast skimmer---those systems have produced some interesting storms in the last 20 yrs.
Looks like our low s of Bermuda is struggling or reorganizing, it doesn't look too good this am. Ditto for systems off Africa.
It's early, amazing to see this much activity in early JULY, keep that in mind. TRENDS not actual events are the indicators here...soon, it'll be seatbelt time.
Get ready for a wild ride!
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Patience Please
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No.. I'm losing patience rapidly. So don't ask me to be patient. And, why are we watching or even bothering with waves that are about to slam into Belen.. does someone own shrimp boats there? Explains the lengthly disapeerances of some of the more well known hurricane trackers.
Bermuda system looked better yesterday.. i think tho didn't pay it a lot of attention. I stopped talking Fish a long time ago.
That leaves a maybe wave far out and someone give me a reason it won't go south like the Carmen Miranda wave?
No..no patience, so little patience I can barely make it through the posts of some of my favorite posters.
I'd find a new topic to talk or go read hurricane history but got to tell you Ed I'm bored to death with history right now. Tired of the past and hoping for a cat 5 to blow my boredom away so not going to focus on the future much but dont ask me to have patience because I lost that attribute a long long long long long time ago.
Why don't we make a board for wishcasters.
Topic?
Wishing for a Cane? Try that pool of clouds off the coast of Spain about to head down to the Cape Verde islands, go on... anything can happen in wishcasting land!
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 04:15 PM |
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Re: Patience Please
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Judging from the latest TWO it would seem that the Atlantic may be about to become a little quieter (at least for the next few days). If the wave currently in the east Atlantic regenerates as it approaches the Caribbean we could have something to watch. Can it be much longer?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 04:21 PM |
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Re: Patience Please
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or, look in the Gulf....:)
Mr. A
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 04:36 PM |
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Re: Patience Please
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Big flare-up NE of the Bahamas, remains to be seen if it persists or if it develops a LLC., any models picking this up?
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 04:53 PM |
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ps about patience and the mjo
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Does someone have an accurate view of it right now because I thought it was in the pacific getting near that area of disturbed weather in the epac and not yet near the Atlantic, but haven't had a chance to look lately and notice that there is activity there.
Maybe Bermuda.. want to say 50/50 but not sure.
happy trails
bobbi
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: ps about patience and the mjo
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That system south of Bermuda has some potential, but I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't amount to anything. Also, I get the idea that 95L will be dropped soon - it doesn't look very impressive at the moment.
As for MJO, Cycloneye posted a good link a few days ago.
MJO
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 05:53 PM |
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African wave potential?
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_85v_144m.gif
This is the 12zGFS and shows clearly a significant system east of the lesser antilles by early next week.But of course it is too far away in days to know for sure but that wave 95L moisted the air behind and that may help the wave that is emerging Africa now and that one is what the GFS model is jumping on.Now let's see if other models join or GFS is a loner.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 06:18 PM |
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I agree
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95I may have been the sacrificial lamb for the wave behind it. Im still a little wary about predicting something forming out there, but i like the looks of our latest wave. Its convection didnt die as it splashed into the water. We'll have to see if there is a twist in it. Its kinda frustrating not to have images updated frequently in that part of the world
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 06:47 PM |
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thanks re: mjo
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Maybe next pass around it we'll have a lot going on. Not sure its late enough in the season to do it this time. Is it possible its moving faster than it was or does the speed stay the same?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 07:54 PM |
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New East Atlantic Wave
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Well 95L seems to have all but disintegrated today. However, the wave that has moved of the African coast and is now located southeast of the CV Islands again looks pretty well organised. The 1800z visible imagery from that area would indicate some curvature in the cloud field. Wouldnt be surprised if this became Invest 96L sometime soon, if it holds together.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 08:05 PM |
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Re: I agree
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Hey Alex K
I have a link that i think has some neat satellite imagery, and it says it real time.
You have to scroll down the page a until you find Africam which is at the bottom and there is a white box that says IR Floater, click that inside the white box and you will get up to date satellite pictures of the waves coming off africa. It looks like the wave that just moved off the coast might be losing convection also.
here is the link
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
Also, i agree with Rich B on the curvature, it seems there is a little circulation there.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 08:11 PM |
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Re: I agree
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I agree, the convection does seem to be waning. Is that a circulation on the east side?
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 10:35 PM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_144l.gif
18Z GFS run shows system more developed east of the lesser antilles but what I want to see is other global models joining the GFS and if that happens then it will be very interesting to follow that wave that is now emerging Africa.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 11:17 PM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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I suppose where there's so much smoke there's some fire somewhere. IF the models keep spitting out possible scenarios then one will probably pop up somewhere. A possibility I suppose. Will see.
Maybe models are doing a dry run.
Is Steve here from Metarie? I'm lost a bit with the Steve's online and don't remember if you've posted lately.
Beginning to feel we need some type of roll call, getting lost in names.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 07 2004 11:28 PM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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Luis,
You know that GFS stands for "Good For S---" don't you?
Seriously, The African wave train is chugging along, and even if these waves don't develop where they are, they are still making it across the pond. If what was once 95L can make it to the lesser Antilles, I'd say we have a serious candidate for development. TWC even mentioned this possibility.
After a pretty interesting day yesterday, today dampened a lot of "first storm" hopes. The low southeast of Bermuda never got going, and now it probably will keep chugging northeast all the way to England...James & Rich B. keep an eye on that one, will you? The first African wave slammed into South America. Someone earlier thought that the former 95L would play sacrificial lamb for the wave following it. That could easily happen, but I still think 95L could eventyally develop if it can make it fairly intact to the Islands.
If this were mid-August, not early July, we'd be tracking three or four storms simultaneously. I'd be a tad worried about everyone's #s, but Rob (da) Mann predicted it would be a slow start and indeed he and IWIC have been spot on so far (tip of the cap Rob, Jason & Kevin).
I guess we're all Jonesing for that first TD to get cranking, but as Ed has admonished, patience, please. If this one (season) pans out like all the experts expect, we'll have PLENTY to watch and fairly soon, too. Still think ex-95L needs to be watched and (this is purely a guess), if it develops it goes across South Fla & into the GOM.
Peace & Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 12:44 AM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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95L is still the best candidate out there IMO. Last few loops show convection trying to rebuild from the moisture from the south. Circulation is still quite good. This may be a player down the road. Cheers!!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 01:41 AM |
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Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering
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Wondering how this does really affect the Hurricane Season. South Florida is so dry its beyond anything to compare it .. I thought until I came across this article in the Sun Sentinel and I realized ... Nepal's rains are late too.. go figure.
So was wondering if anyone here knows of any other similar situation going on... around the world?
Where else are rainfall patterns off? Monsoons?
Check out Sun-Sentinel.. its a real article....really.. I mean they are running about a month late too... who knew. Bet there's some similarities. Someone call Joe and ask him.
Bobbi
(additional material removed by CFHC Moderator)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 01:57 AM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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in a word, yeah. there's potential. as usual the gfs, usually the prime source of ideas, initializes things differently every run.. nogaps has less in mind.
former 95L has bravely (insanely?) opted for a northerly track, and is over waters typically below hurricane support threshold. sal is also doing a bit (not a lot) to keep it in check.. the result is a system with decent vorticity, and shallow convection that keeps trying to go. and go it will if there's much of a wave left when it gets near 50w.. 48 hours out. 40%, pending how it does next 2 days.
last night i considered the disturbance near bermuda as the leader candidate.. hasn't really improved though due to a chaotic upper air pattern nearby. there's still a surface trough and some convection, but no part of it seems to be taking off right now. i'll 30% it. the new wave has model enthusiasm but nothing really special about it.
as far as pattern evolution, same basic idea. basin goes more zonal, with pulses on the TUTT and ridge cells.. a trough-splitting pattern after a fashion, with retarded progression in the mid-latitudes in spite of a fairly flat flow. down the road gfs continues to suggest development threats, out past mid-month. things not as imminent as i thought last night (gunjumper oh yes i am), but more than likely still going to happen.
HF 0157z08july
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 01:58 AM |
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Re: Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering
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Hey Bobbi, i've been wondering too where the daily rains that we usually have down here are. I'ts been drier than the Sahara here near the coast in Broward, but out west in the glades, I do see the clouds and storms, it's just that the upper-leve winds aren't pushing them east towards the coast.
Maybe all of us South Fla CFHC'ers need to get a rain dance going like in Nepal ! (lol)
AJ
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Patterns in late rainy season starts ..wondering
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TG & Bobbi,
Every time I look at a satellite loop, it appears as tho S Fla is getting the usual popcorn t-boomers, guess you guys aren't getting them...strange.
I'm guessing Bobbi's post about the Nepalese women will last until Ed checks in later tonight.
Bobbi, I'm losing patience too, but if we can sacrifice one week now for three awesome tracking weeks doen the road, I'll gladly do it. Alex will form...soon...I hope
HF, of course great post..as usual. I believe you're next up with a 7/11 call for "first storm".
Cheers,
LI Phil
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 02:44 AM |
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Re: African wave potential?
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Check out the below link...there is certainly some circulation to this....the question remains - will convection develop near the center?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
...and from the 8pm Tropical Discussion...
THE FLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOWING UP NEAR 14N35W. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CLEAR INDICATION THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE AND WOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE A QUIKSCAT PASS...AND MAYBE A LITTLE MORE TSTM ACTIVITY...BEFORE ANALYZING A SURFACE LOW. THE WAVE IS ALSO TRUDGING THROUGH A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL
AIR AND SAHARAN DUST TO THE N AND W BEING DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS PROBABLY LIMITING THE SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 04:03 AM |
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Topic is "bring on the weather" not models and waves
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The topic IS "Bring ON the Weather" and my post was about the lack of WEATHER in South Florida.
Bring on the weather means in my opinon...we are ready and waiting for the weather and we aren't getting any.
Not here..and not in Nepal.
My post was very on topic. The posts here about every little wispy cloud somewhere far away that will never get to the East Coast where Hurricanes are supposed to are OFF TOPIC. You want me to go thru and pick out how many are off topic but just general tropical trivia?
It's prudish and old fashioned to have to yank someone's post because they mentioned Naked Women in Nepal and overlook the fact that the article is about the fact that they are waiting to have some weather and we are waiting to have some weather and we are both waiting about as long for a seasonal pattern to get back to being seasonal.
My post was more about climo and bringing on the weather than any post of late that was just bemoaning and arguing out weather the MJO is or isn't a factor.
Maybe there should be an MJO board or a board for posts talking about models twelve days out and sitting on the porch shooting the breeze with the guys.
Sorry but thats MY opinon.
Says "bring on the weather"
You want to define THAT?
We had a board that was waiting for Bastardi's predicted storm that never materialized in the Gulf for WEEKS way after the forecast was blown and way before Ed disapeered and those posts weren't yanked.
No, I don't understand. I understand that its okay to talk about the wierdest things and get more bogged down in what is often a boring technical duel between only two or three posters who understand what they are saying as long as someone isn't using a little humor or trying to wake everyone up and smile a bit and at the same time learn that there is another place that is also waiting to Bring on the Weather and I would bet anything that there is some correlation in weather patterns that is depriving Nepal of rain and South Florida.
If we can study sunspots to see how they affect El Nino and watch the WV over japan its not a far stretch to see that we are both over a month late in monsoonal rains.
That post was NOT about trivia. Many posts here have been and they haven't been shoved onto a board no one reads. This wansn't about weather it was about getting nervous because the article was also about some girl doing some ritual rice harvest to some rain god w/o the proper rice picking gear.
Sorry no one is allowed have fun or smile but just duel out meteorological concepts around here in high tech lingo during what is a big dry spell of tropical weather.
I don't mind being censored when I am off topic or censor the comment about the Red Sox winning but I do mine being censored when I am ON topic.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 04:19 AM |
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please check out these statistics, thank u
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Luis,
You know that GFS stands for "Good For S---" don't you?
**************************************
evening mjo's arrival becomes very apparent and the system goes offline temporarily.. bummer
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HF,
2 solid posts, as always. Yeah, the site was down for like 13 hours yesterday, not sure why. Maybe Mike was trying something new out.
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And HF, loved the "latin" reference with the plural of the brothers Cornelius. It's been 20 years, but, I do believe that would be the "Brothers Cornelii".
*******************************************************
SC et. al.
'Twas Bertha, 1996. (actually formed early July, but I think that's the one you mean...)
(note..this should go in weather history)
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posts 15779 through 15785 AT LEAST are ALL abotu hurricane history NOt bringing on the weather... for instance..
Re: LI Express [Re: LI Phil]
#15785 - Tue Jul 06 2004 12:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Thanks Phil, that really was interesting reading. That was one ferocious storm! Not exactly small either, at 500 miles wide. It must have been a truly terrifying storm to experience. We really are very lucky to live in an age of satellite technology and early warnings. It was lucky that the hurricane had weakened from CAT 5 status!
I take it that Gloria in '85 would have been the worst storm you experienced personally?
**********************************************
then there is the ED PHONE HOME POSTS which weren't removed...
Glad ED is okay [Re: James88]
#15786 - Tue Jul 06 2004 12:50 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I was beginning to worry because Phil was so concerned.
************************************************
then theres colleen, can someone give that girl her password...
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then from the Alex K person there are the anonymous NHC bashing posts on why they differ
Obviously the people who write the tropical weather outlook are not the same people who write the discussion.
From the outlook"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE"
From the discussion-"THE WAVE IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
ENVIRONMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER
OUTBREAK."
I wish that the official authority on this could coordinate what they are saying
.......The most recent Discussion was written by Jamie R. Rhome, who is with NOAA.
You can tell who issued what forecast, as their names appear at the end of the statements. I believe that even within the NHC, different forecasters can issue rather divergent forecasts based upon the same data...their "style" if you will.
I'm not certain if the NHC guys issue Discussions as well, or if that is entirely separate. Maybe one of our Mets can clear that up.
Cheers,
LI Phil
****************************************
back to mjo
Re: One more thing [Re: Old Sailor]
#15806 - Tue Jul 06 2004 04:06 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
Looks like the MJO factor is well and truly taking hold in the Atlantic basin. How long is this likely to last for?
Post Extras:
************************************
You might want to take Collen's anon post off here too..us women seem to have problems staying ON topic..
This is Colleen....I have to post as "anonymous" because I can't remember my doggone password..ARGH!
Hope everyone had a safe and happy 4th of July! We enjoyed ours. We went to the Pepsi 400 in Daytona and got hammered by a severe storm. Ouch! Three guys got hit by lightning by the merchandise trailers, but they all lived to tell about it (how, I don't know) and were even able to go watch the race! Amazing! I guess a better question to ask would be why they were at the merchadise trailers in the first place with that kind of storm going on. It takes all kinds....which my 8-year noticed. As we were making our way into the racetrack, he noted the following:
"There sure are a lot of drunk people here, Mom! (pauses for a moment)....oh yeah, it's a race!! You're supposed to be drunk! DUH!"
Kids.....they don't miss a trick, eh?
Re: the wave/invest/tpc statement. I thought that there was a year that we had a CV storm early in June, am I insane? I'm sure it fizzled out but I do remember thinking at the time that it would be an active season, and I think it was either last year or the year before. I'm sure someone knows. I'm sure the TPC is "thinking" that this wave has a little potential but not much, but for them to mention it at all speaks for itself. As for marginal conditions...well, who knows what could happen. Maybe this will be a rogue storm. I don't remember Andrew being forecast to be a Cat4-5 or for it to hit south Florida, either. But he did, and the rest is history! Never underestimate Mother Nature. Just when she's got you down for your nap, she comes screaming back into the room to tell you it's time to get up!
It looks like we might see some nasty weather here in Polk County. It looks as though Hillsborough is taking a severe beating at the present moment.
Hope all is okay with Ed. I'm sure we'll hear soon.
Colleen
BUT SHE DIDNT MENTION NAKED WOMEN IN NEPAL WORRYING ABOUT THE MONSOONS BEING OVER A MONTH LATE AND RUINING THE RICE CROP THAT COULD BE DESTROY A REGIONS WHOLE ECONOMY ...
OH I AM SOOOO SORRY i WAS OFF TOPIC BY TALKING ABOUT THE LACK OF RAIN AND A LATE RAINY SEASON AND WAITING TO BRING ON THE WEATHER.
IF IT STARTS RAINING IN NEPAL... YOU OWE ME
AND NO IM NOT PLANNING ON DANCING IN THE RAIN (*#&@) FOR YOU iN MIAMI..
YOU'LL JUST HAVE TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET YOUR RAIN GODS TO BRING ON THE WEATHER WITHOUT MY HELP.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 05:00 AM |
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Re: please check out these statistics, thank u
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I have to agree with Bobbi. While I understand that most of the posts should be tropical (btw rainfall in South FL and Nepal do qualify), the board has been moderated a little too hard over the last year or so. I understand Ed's push for everyone to stay on topic, but if you can't have some fun every now and then, it gets too much like school. I quit school 20 years ago.
Steve
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:03 AM |
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Re: please check out these statistics, thank u
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I'll leave these posts on the Main Page because they are good examples (at least some of them) of material that would have been appropriate to another forum. This is a Forum-structured site - by intention - so that site Users with various interests can engage in discussions related to their forum(s) of interest. The site is not a 'one-page' forum, but it is often used that way.
After being off-line for two weeks, I simply do not have the time to go back over all of the material that was posted and edit selected material or move it into another more appropriate forum if necessary - we are all volunteers here with a common interest.
From the Content - Site Useage Page: "This site was designed for ourselves to use as well, and you may or may not like our style." I think that pretty much covers it.
Any editing will always irritate someone (and I've got lots of emails to prove it). Any lack of editing will always irritate someone else (a separate and significant stack of emails). Lets all work toward a common ground. I've elaborated frequently on the tolerances for posting - at the start of every new season Mike and John and I discuss this topic and its never an easy subject - no way that you can please everybody all of the time, however, pleasing everybody all of the time is not the objective of this site. Enough on that. Please make an effort to put material into the proper forum.
Thanks,
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:29 AM |
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On the sats
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Dust is evident traveling across the Atlantic and moving into our part of the world. Wouldn't this lower the chance of anything forming as it dries out the environment?
and thanks Steve and I hear you Ed
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:34 AM |
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Re: On the sats
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My pencil is dull again but it is not from storm tracking .. I have been tapping on my desk waiting for something to track. After last year this year seems dull.
When I begin to think we are ready then the waves just roll on as waves and never develop
what is the deal this year? I know it is early still but just a little something would be fun and give us something to discuss.
Looking East and South waiting. Anyone have any ideas as to why we are so slow starting this year?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:34 AM |
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Re: On the sats
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It would probably have a negative effect, since tropical systems favour moist, unstable air rather than stable dry air. On top of this, there seems to be some slight cooling of SSTs in the southern Caribbean. Seems like the forces of nature are conspiring against hurricanes this year. On the other hand, we're only in the early part of the season yet, so there is plenty of time.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:39 AM |
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Re: On the sats
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A slow start is not unusual. I think that after such an active early season in 2003 (on this day last year Claudette formed), anything less seems very quiet. Remember - most seasons have little if anything until at least July, so we are on track in that respect. I have to agree with you though - it would be nice to have something to track!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: On the sats
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BTW, check this out:-
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT THU JUL 8 2004
A SMALL AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 275 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL BE MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
If you animate the image below, there seems to be a circulation in the clouds. Could this become the first one?
GOES-12 Interactive 1 km Visible Weather Satellite Image Selector
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 12:00 PM |
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Re: On the sats
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That was me. I forgot to login. Does anyone think this could become Alex?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 12:00 PM |
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Re: On the sats
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Does anyone know if the NRL site is down. It won't open on my computer
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 12:01 PM |
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Re: On the sats
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I think it is down - I can't access it either.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 12:05 PM |
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96L invest for system near Bermuda
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
This is the backup site of NRL which shows the new invest near Bermuda.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 03:24 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Satellite Services Division has already begun issuing T-numbers. The first classification is "too weak" however.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Luis,
Thanks for the backup site. NRL always seems to be down. I'm quite surprised they gave an Invest to that storm.
GFS takes the remnants of 95L and moves them thru the islands to just off South Fla by early next week. Been watching that wave all week and still feel it's the best candidate for development. As JB said this am, right now it's heading for "no man's land" so no development for the next 48 hours or so.
96L will probably be picked up by the trof and make it's way to Merry England. BTW, Satellite pix of Western Europe show a pretty nasty storm affecting Great Britain...even has what looks like an eye and banding features. Maybe James can tell us all about it...but not in this forum.
Bobbi,
Ed EDits me more than anyone. Doesn't bother me, as he's only doing his job. And I think he leaves a lot more in than he could. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I am as guilty as anyone on off-topic posts -- I've tried to post them in the appropriate forums, only NOBODY responds. That's why I put 'em up on the main board and take my chances with Ed.
Ed's right about one thing...there are people who get upset when you DON'T edit. In fact, about two hours after John gave me moderator status, I got a PM asking me why I wasn't editing posts. So there are some on these boards who might take offense to what some of us have posted.
It's all about learning here, and our mutual love of the weather. I think Ed's much more inclined to let stuff stay on the boards in the slow times. Things are beginning to pick up now, and we'll have much more to talk about.
Well, I've said my piece. Ed - feel free to edit this all out if you want to. I'm not going to engage in any personal attacks or other retribution.
PEACE,
LI Phil
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 03:42 PM |
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Re: On the sats
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It's dull alright but give it time.One of the years listed late as an analog by some was 69.Anna 7/27,Blanche 8/11 and Camille 8/15.As dry as everyone is complaining S FL something might have to give.96lL will be a fish spinner our first storm?The one way out in the Atlantic if can hold some weak circulation till the Lee's maybe something there.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 03:49 PM |
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Re: On the sats
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The latest visible satellite view shows a small burst of convection - but it's not very deep. The latest TWO says that the system to the SW of Bermuda appears to be developing a small surface low, and it has the potential for further development. Something else to watch. The season's finally getting started.
As for the storm affecting Great Britain, I'll put something in the Other Weather forum.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 03:55 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Hey Phil, Ddid JB say he thinks 95L is dead? I still maintain it may be a player down the road. On the SW bermuda low, looks like a TD or Alex may come out of this. Moving slowly right now though. And a trough should take it out> Cheers!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Steve,
Not only does he consider 95L to be alive and well, he thinks it will make it across the pond, through the islands, near south florida and eventually into the gulf. Right now it's in an area where there will be no or slow development (next 48 hours), then to the Lees where it may or may not take off. He stopped short of saying this will become Alex, but you know he's rooting it on. Of course, this is what the GFS is saying, and he's just running with that.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Phil,
What's your opinion on 96L - do we have the makings of our first storm, or is it another teaser before the real action begins?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 04:31 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for system near Bermuda
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Thanks for sharing the info. Looks like 95L will have some shear to contend with as well unless the environment in the Caribbean changes during the next day or so. We watch.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 08 2004 06:56 PM |
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i know what you mean phil ...but
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i was on topic.. just being silly and trying to wake everyone up with a pleasant image.. more pleasant than the empty sats