Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Jul 10 2004 10:22 PM |
Analysis
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Just a 'mixed bag' of comments on the Atlantic basin and its potential for future activity. At the moment there are no real development areas although the old Invest 95L tropical wave remains active and has maintained its structure. At 10/19Z the wave extended from 16N 56W to 19.5N 53W and it was moving westward at 15-20mph. Although there is a slim chance for future development, current organization is poor. On Monday afternoon, the wave will encounter increasing southwesterly shear south of Puerto Rico.
In the western Gulf of Mexico a tropical wave is interacting with a weak upper level low near 23N 93W (at 10/18Z). Diverging air to the north is aiding the development of afternoon convection however the system is disorganized and additional development is not likely. The system is moving to the west northwest at 20-25mph and will bring squalls to south Texas and northeast Mexico.
The eastern Atlantic is dominated by high pressure with strong ridging to the south of the high center. This pattern has kept the ITCZ far to the south of its expected position for this time of the year. The ITCZ extends west southwestward from the west African coast to 4N 43W. Strong waves that exit the west African coast are shoved southwestward and cannot develop to any significant degree until they get west of 50W. Hurricane Carol in 1953 is a good example of this pattern.
Regarding the potential for a near term 'first storm of the season', only 7 'first storms' have developed during the period from 07/06 through 07/26 over the past 100 years - not very good odds. The last one was TS Arthur on 07/14/2002.
With the current ITCZ position and the current ENSO pattern, 1953 is looking more like a classic analog year (go take a peek at Dr Gray's latest analog years). I realize that 1953 did have TS Alice form in May (05/25), however many of you did feel that we had an early season Caribbean system this year. The next 1953 system was Hurricane Barbara which formed on 08/11. The storm totals for 1953 were 14/6/4 - with 6 U.S. landfalls. So far at least, the general pattern for this season seems to mirror 1953.
Cheers,
ED
(minor corrections - 07/11/04)
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| LI Phil |
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| Sat Jul 10 2004 10:36 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Ed,
Thanks for the new thread...
1953 may have been 14/6/4, with 6 U.S. landfalls, but (unless I'm reading the map wrong), only one was a CAT 1 at landfall. All others were TS or less. (Please correct me if I'm wrong). I guess that's good news, in that there was not a lot of destruction/deaths. I'd need to do some more research to truly form an opinion (i.e. 2001 Allison was "only" a TS, but she sure did put a world of hurt on Houston).
Other than 1953, do you see any other analogs? And do you think 95L has any kind of shot at development? Thanks.
Cheers,
LI Phil
95L - very little chance - it would probably take the system at least two days to organize - by then, the wind shear will settle the question.
1953:
Barbara - Cat II (90 knots) at landfall
Florence - Cat I (70 knots) at landfall
Other analogs are 1990 and 2003, but the pattern is poor for 1990 (although ENSO is good) and marginal for 2003. I think that 1953 is the best analog.
ED
| Cycloneye |
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| Sat Jul 10 2004 11:21 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Great anaylisis ED that you did about what is going on now and more important how the season will pan out with the patterns shaping up and your 1953 analog year is a good one to look at.I haved seen in other boards that some people are throwing the towel for an active season but in reality the real season starts in august.
| rmbjoe1954 |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 11:49 AM |
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Re: Analysis
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The waters are very warm in the Atlantic; all that is needed is for the right atmospheric conditions than we will see a great 'take-off'
| James88 |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 12:07 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Even though the wave to the east of Puerto Rico is approaching an area unfavourable for development, it sure looks impressive this morning. It is supporting deep convection and is holding together well.
| Rabbit |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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just like to comment that for trackers, this is the worst possible kind of start to follow a season like last year, when we were already on the third storm
| James88 |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 03:08 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Very true. A year ago today Tropical Storm Claudette was emerging into the GOM, and the wave that would be Danny was making it's way through the eastern Atlantic. Now we have little if anything significant in the Atlantic basin. Maybe next week will yield something...
| LI Phil |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 03:12 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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James, there is definitely an impressive convective burst there, but too much dry air and sheer ahead...probably DOA.
Bugs, totally agree, as last year we had Ana in April & Claudette by now. Also, it looks as if we don't get something in the next week, we may not see any tropical development until mid-August
.
LI Phil
PS: can anyone remember when NRL was completely devoid of ANY activity in July?
| James88 |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 03:56 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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No tropical development until mid-August?! When was the last time that happened? Most seasons have at least a tropical depression long before then.
If this were to be the case, wouldn't the storm totals for this year have to be lowered? That is unless we have a very active September and October.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Jul 11 2004 04:05 PM |
Re: Analysis
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This wave coming off Africa looks good, but of course they all do. Keeping my fingers cross that maybe this will be our first one! I'm getting really bored without any action.... Hopefully we won't have to wait till mid-august.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Ed/Bros C---4th try to post this. System keeps eating it, there is a problem.
Much truncated post:
Gloomer/Doomers: you said the same things in past seasons and look what happened every time. Relax, it is still along time till August.
We are having a 'real Florida summer' for the first time in years here in the Big Bend--raining almost every day. We had 17.43" in June--a near record!
sc
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 11 2004 05:30 PM |
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What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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Can everyone please relax a bit and take a break from all the specialization of hurricane prognosis. Stop with the mjo and the dust and the constant worrying about the MAO and the negative tilts and just rely a bit on climo. In the end climo usually rules out.
I seriously doubt we will get to August 1st without a system with cords. Some little cloud puff somewhere will eventually spin enough to get something going as the water warm up across the basin.
Something about the way the system looked over the yucatan Friday before it moved to fast through the BOC and the way the wave moving too slowly ne of PR makes me think that the pattern is becomming more tropical, more in tune with the start of the season.
I'd say we are within ten days of something happening, late July though when I wouldn't venture to say.
For now.. enjoy the day, watch the clouds, sit in front of a fan or under a tree, read a book, listen to music, eat a fudgesicle and relax... its going to happen sooner or later and if I'm going to bet my money then it will be on climo not initials and worrying weathermen shooting the breeze all over the web and back again.
Bobbi
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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Amen Bobbi! It will happen when it will. Did Saharan Dust just get invented or something? And TUTTs and MJO, and ENSO and QBO and NAO and GPO and LMNO and,,,,,,,,,,,,
Relax....They will spawn soon enuf!!
| James88 |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 09:19 PM |
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Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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I mentioned it earlier today, but the wave to the east of Puerto Rico seems to be holding itself together well. It is heading into an area unfavourable for development, so it should not be with us for much longer. Even so, it came back to life just as many of you predicted. If conditions were a little more favourable, this one would almost certainly become Alex.
Also, the wave in the GOM looks quite healthy this evening. It's moving inland, so it won't form into anything, but it looks like Mexico and Texas may feel its effects fairly soon. Also, check out the violent thunderstorms over Florida.
Looking ahead, there is a potent system currently over Africa, that looks like it could become a strong wave if it lasts to the Atlantic. This one is further north than its predecessors.
Sometime in the next couple of weeks...
| LI Phil |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 09:22 PM |
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Climo
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Steve H. LOL. Of course climo will take care of some of the action, it's just that all of those acronyms do play a roll in tropical storm formation, some more than others. ENSO is probably the most important, but they all do affect climo to some degree (no pun intended). I won't argue over how much. As long as mother nature needs to vent some heat...well, then, she will.
Peace,
LI Phil
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 11 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Looks like the tropical wave that moved inland over northeast Mexico developed a weak circulation (near 22N 98.5W at 11/21Z) just prior to landfall.
Having second thoughts about the amount of activity this season? Check the Storm Forum for some interesting statistics.
Cheers,
ED
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Jul 11 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Yes, for the ridge to settle in in the Atlantic and the strong easterly flow off the atlantic to ease, it may be a couple of weeks before we get some action. (I was being facecious..if you didn't know.) Having said that something will develop this week
But I'm still going with my 13/9/3. Cheers!!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 11 2004 11:43 PM |
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Wave in GOM and a possible circulation center ...deja vu
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A real sense of deja vu watching that wave just barely pull together before it went inland and how many times have we seen that? Over and over and over at the start of the season.
Think this is just about the start of the season.. will happen soon.
As for what Phil said.. there are factors that are important, DUST lol mjo.. but what we don't really know yet is the mathematical equation (if i didnt spell that right please correct me here, gotten so bad at spelling lately) but...
We don't know the X + L + M - U -Z + 2/3 of I and how it all goes together... we can see the parts but not the whole picture.
And, the sum total anyway of the whole mathematical problem is CLIMO.. as much as I HATE to admit that, it's true.
Just simple fact.. CLIMO RULES
annoying as all ...but true on almost any given Sunday
Bobbi
| mp3reed |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 11 2004 11:56 PM |
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Re: Analysis
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Very Interesting! Hot in West Texas. Send Rain
| Storm Cooper |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 12:19 AM |
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Re: Analysis
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As of 18Z the only model of interest (as always) is the AVN/GFS w/ a good wave in about a week or so? I think the slow time will end soon & in this month
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 02:24 AM |
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circumstances and other forums
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have a commentary on mjo, gonna toss it on one of the forums to appease the moderator gods. it can be greatly expanded upon if anybody is willing to make the effort.. check it out if the spirit moves you. should be there in a while.
today is the climatological date of named storm #1.. it was also my second try at tagging the first named storm. no dice there. i was really pumped about things going off last week, when mjo arrived and gfs started coughing up phantom storms.. still waiting for some verification. it is interesting that the late-organizing wave in the bay of campeche got the 'go' signature (96L did also earlier this week).. that's all eastpac fodder now. speaking of which they have one system looking very perky (mentioned by several) and another itcz disturbance near costa rica that models are picking up on too.. blas and celia if both decide to form. it works better in the core of the atlantic season.. but there is rather frequently a five-nine day lag between eastpac and atlantic formation. don't see a very good reason for it to work this time, but you never know. models losing 95L, following a wave in the east altantic (gfs has been suggestive, but not with great conviction). translates to, don't expect anything next week, just keep a lazy eye out.
gonna stay with a first storm as a mid-latitude cutoff, but have to admit mann's mdr breakout system may be our 2004 season christener. i may get a candidate in a week or so, northeast atlantic.. as if anybody cares.
HF 0224z12july
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 03:08 AM |
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Re: Analysis
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Thanks Ed for picking up on that, I noticed that too, in fact, there still seems to be a circulation center, just inland. I blew the forecast, but only because the system ran out of space.
Here's an odd thing: I noticed this am a very small swirl embedded in the edge of convection east of sc; that SAME swirl, looking just as it did earlier today, is now over Daytona Beach on the edge of an area of convection that is moving in my direction, and across Fl into the Gulf. You should see the lightning display just to our east...some severe ww in the ara too. It may be a stormy night.
Curious to see if the swirl survives into the Gulf---hard to imagine, just neat that it is still there and looks EXACTLY as it did 12 hours ago.
sc
| h2ocean |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 03:20 AM |
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Re: circumstances and other forums
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Here is another interesting link pertaining to the MJO....
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/mjo_iso.html
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 11:53 AM |
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hey to As IF lol
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we all care..
and dont laugh at me but there's a wave off of africa and i like it, not like will develop but well best ive seen in a while
there is a wave
wow
have a good day guys
bobbi
| LI Phil |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 02:32 PM |
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Great explanation of MJO
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Rob Mann posted this in the storm forum, but Ed said it's ok for the main board. Here is a great post explaining MJO:
"At the moment, a negative MJO pulse stretches from the EPAC through the African continent. Obviously it's not enough to bring our basin to life right now...the mid-latitudes have pretty much shut off as we move deeper in summer, so less chance of a frontal originating system in the GOM or W ATL like we often see in June. And in the tropical Atlantic, the strong subtropical ridge and SAL are still choking our tropical waves...not as badly as earlier, but still enough to keep anything from forming. Typical for this time of year regardless of MJO. With all that being said, and no real system being shown by the models in the next week...it looks like this negative MJO will come and go with no TC forming in the ATL.
But that brings me to another point. This means that we'll probably have a positive MJO set in the region beginning sometime in the next 1-2 weeks...which then favors the next negative MJO moving into the ATL around the Aug 15-20 period. If this timing is correct, it's PERFECT timing for a burst of strong activity in late Aug through early Sep. Going far far in the range here, but this burst could be followed by a calmer period in mid Sep...then another (somewhat smaller) burst of activity in the end of Sep and early Oct. This is all assuming the MJO sticks on its extraploated schedule...as seen in the past, MJO pulses can slow or speed up unexpectedly, which in that case would lead to completely different timing than I described above. BUT, if it does happen that way...as you may have already noticed, it's basically the same MJO pattern seen in 1998.
It also means there's a small chance we may not get our first named storm until mid Aug, as Phil pointed out. Though a positive MJO doesn't mean a named storm CAN'T form...just makes it harder. Based on analogs and climatologically alone though, I'd be a little surprised if we don't see Alex by the end of the month.
--------------------
Rob Mann
IndependentWx.Com
2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast "
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 12 2004 05:13 PM |
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Re: Great explanation of MJO
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Here's the link to a story on CNN about the worst monsoonal flooding in "years" in South Asia. If you looked at a sat map of Africa today, you can see some of the downstream results. If it keeps productive overall (and in the means), this is another component to the 2004 season that would be viewed as a positive as far as net activity and available moisture.
Story on Monsoonal Flooding in South Asia
| LI Phil |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 05:16 PM |
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Steve-wrong link!
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Steve, you may want to try to correct that link...
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 05:18 PM |
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Re: Steve-wrong link!
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So, whats up in the NE Gulf?--that impulse I noted last night seems to have bloomed.....odd.
sc
| andy1tom |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 05:59 PM |
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Re: Steve-wrong link!
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CURRENTLY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG AND DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER OUR
OUTER WATERS MOVING S. SURFACE DATA SHOW A TROUGH EXTENDING W-SW
INTO THE GULF FROM NEAR THE SUWANNEE RIVER. CONVECTION RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED ALONG THIS TROUGH AROUND 10-11Z IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
VORT MAX MOVING SW INTO THE AREA.
it sure did seem to grow fast. don't know if it will amount to anything though
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 06:40 PM |
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NE Gulf
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You just never know about these things. Sometimes something just POPS up from nowhere and demands your attention.
Similar going ons in SW Carib tho more curious about the NE Gulf. More friendly environment closer to home these days that far out at sea. Then again IF a wave could make it intact still wet enough.. maybe something powerfully exciting would happen around here. Maybe..
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 07:19 PM |
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12N / 82W
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Seems to have some circulation. Is it going to move into the GOM or crose into Mexico?
| LI Phil |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 07:29 PM |
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3 Areas
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Cocoa,
Yeah...I was just looking at that. Right now there are three areas of interest, but probably very doubtful for development.
1. The explosion of showers that came off the Florida peninsula earlier today and is currently in the GOM. I don't even know if you could call it "tropical" but it sure is a rainmaker.
2. The area of convection that came north off of South America. Looking at sat loops, it sure looks like it will try to come north, possibly getting into the BOC tonight/tomorrow. This could be one to watch.
3. The VERY impressive wave that came off of Africa. Has held together reasonably well. Also appears to be at a more northerly lattitude than it's predecessors. Could be a player down the road.
Probably nothing develops, but at least we've got something to watch...and we will soon have Blas and possibly Celia in the EPac.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Jul 12 2004 07:51 PM |
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Re: Gulf micro-low
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For lack of a better name--that feature I remarked about last night is STILL there, just off Cedar Key!!
Take a look (soon)....
seem to be some other swirls too.....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
sc
| Steve |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 08:16 PM |
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Re: Gulf micro-low
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LOL. For anyone who clicked on the prior link, it's worth the time to load. It's Kerry & Bush singing "This land is your land." The actual CNN story (sans the 3 purple hearts) is as follows:
Millions Flee South Asian Floods
Steve
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Jul 12 2004 09:03 PM |
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Possible Carib system and flooding in Nepal too!
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First off... close to home... I would say that the system nearing the Yucatan will most likely move into the BOC and give us something to look at.. a possibility anyway. After the last fast moving system that had a very real signature this one should look tropical enough as well to ponder over. Pondering is good, we've been so long without anything to ponder its been silly. But.. its also par for the course. You do remember par don't you? Just hang in there a little longer and something will go bump in the tropical night.
I like the wave but think there is more immediate potential close in. I also keep wondering if some upper level low in Atlantic is going to take tropical soon.
Lastly regarding the Carib possibilities .. I think we have to keep an eye on upper level low hanging round eastern cuba to make or break it as well as upper level conditions.
Nextly
Not to annoy anyone around here or to bring up a bad subject I just wanted to post a link for anyone who was wondering how the poor people of Nepal were doing. The trick seemed to work and its raining the proverbial cats and dogs over there too. Monsoons have started, late but started.
Maybe something like that will happen here soon.
Rain I mean.
Thank you for your patience. Bobbi
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/fromthefield/108964667354.htm
and just remember everything in weather has to do with patterns, monsoons started.. think our systems will begin to get their stuff together soon too.
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 12:46 AM |
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nothing doing, still analysis time
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i've got some vague, but useful MJO related-stuff over on the forum ed posted the other night. it really poses more questions than answers.
the basin today has a tamer, less interesting look. nice convection is blowing near the brink of central america, useless stuff for development this time of year (low level easterlies send it off). the old 95L wave is looking junky now. new one near 25w is itcz embedded (though otherwise not too bad).. days to be something, probably not at all.
that powerful negative SOI is around two weeks gone, growing warm sst patch in the central pacific appears to have stopped surging. based on the mjo plots, i'd say SOI will be tapering down and keeping us in neutral ENSO this fall. that means, if i had a season forecast that i was considering changing, i wouldn't change it (don't anyway).
aside from the stuff i mentioned above over in the other forum, i think i've found some more info on the 1953 pattern.. going to see if there's anything to it.
blah, i'm just rambling. another quiet week (blas notwithstanding).
HF 0046z13july
| LI Phil |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 12:58 AM |
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Re: nothing doing, still analysis time
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HF,
We're all probably sick of hearing this, but GREAT POST, as always.
I guess we were all kinda hoping 95L might materialize in some form, guess now that's not happenin'. Tried to hang on, might actually affect the cold front dropping down from Canada/East Coast later this week, but not developing in and of itself. A noble soldier.
Quick question, you don't think anything will come of the blob just emerging off of SA, possibly to make it to the BOC? Seems like it has/had? a chance earlier this evening.
BTW, read your little piece on MJO. Thanks to guys like you and Rob Mann who can take some of the science out of this stuff and put it all into "English" so guys who are trying to learn can understand it better. I think we'd all agree that MJO is still one of the lesser understood predictors but one which can definitely have an effect on seasonal development.
Have a great evening,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 12:15 PM |
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CV wave too low
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It's still there but it's too low. The fact that its there is good..the fact that its alive is because its too low because to the north is of course dust. Just because the MJO is in operation doesn't mean we have storms.. we need moisture.
So..where is the moisture?
In the Carib is still a rich moisture supply but then theres theres action in the pacific.
Still something to watch.
Not convinced we won't have some system develop close in of east coast from some sort of nontropical origination. Someone here suggested that...can't remember who (sorry about that) but think they were right.
Have a great day guys, take care Bobbi
ps..Phil and ED..you still talking to me
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 02:17 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas
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The area in the western Caribbean (near the Bay of Campeche) looks like it may have the beginning of a little spin to it. I say that with a grain of salt because it may just be the last few frames that I see this, but it will be interesting to see what it does in the next 12-24 hours.
Colleen :-)
| Robert |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas
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Sorry to nit pick guys and gals, but the Bay of Campeche is in the gulf of mexico not the carribean just noticed it been refered to as being in the carribean a few times.If its in the carribean its said to be near belize,hondurace, costa rica ect....
| LI Phil |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 03:49 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas
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Fair point Robert
Web page w/good map
Unfortunately, it's a moot point since this area of disturbance (in the southern Caribbean near the coast of Central America and Columbia at 76W/19N) is moving west and has strong convection and t-storms, but no organization.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 04:52 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW
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Listen gang, don't know where your minds are.. Maybe all star game, maybe off fishing, brooding over a slow season but pay attention to the loops please.
Colleen is right as there is something spinning.. the salt is spinning, add some pepper and this is the best thing we've had out there in days .. in my opinion.
Maybe someone uses wrong terms... correcting us is good when we make obvious mistakes..its the way we learn but down there in the infamous SW Carib.. its raining and there IS a swirl so look again. And, I don't think its heading west..think its sort of sitting and congealing.
btw..rained in miami today, HARD
wake up gang from whatever you are preoccupied with and look at the loops
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
and do not tell me nothing is happening
| Old Sailor |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW
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Bobbi:
It appears to just be the tops of the thunder storms clouds being shear off with the strong SW shear. I wouldn't worry about it. Would need a few days of not moving.
| LI Phil |
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| Tue Jul 13 2004 05:40 PM |
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Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW
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Old Sailor,
Tend to agree, looked at wv loops, ir loops and vis loops and it is definitely moving west...perhaps wnw or even nnw, but west and over land...on it's way to the East Pac. Perhaps a piece of energy can split off and try to make it's way north, but there is simply too much shear even out to 72 hours. Unfortunately, no real chance for development with this one...and I was on top of this since yesterday and really thought it had a chance.
On another note, the big wave that exited Africa is forecast by the UKMET to reach the Islands by this weekend, so that's something to watch, if nothing else. Elsewhere there's just too much dry air and dust for anything to get going.
Oh well,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 05:48 PM |
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see if it sits
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you might be surprised
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 08:07 PM |
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Re: see if it sits
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Still looking at the loops, and it's still got a spin to it. Even the TWD says it's able to develop t-storms despite the shear. I'm with you, Bobbi...wouldn't write it off just yet.
I don't see any movement to the W either, LI Phil. Parts of it, perhaps, but not all of it.
Robert...the reason I said Caribbean is simple. The loops I was looking at say "WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN", NOT the GOM. You can't even see it on the GOM loops.
Colleen
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 09:10 PM |
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Re: see if it sits
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Bastardi put out a note on the SWC and Gulf today. He mentioned that the MLC heading SW through the gulf could get entangled with the wave axis pulling west. He doesn't think it's a go (noted the models) but that the main thrust of the wave would head westward through Central America. It's a wait and see as to whether or not any of the SWC convection can get pulled up to the northwest. Another interesting note he dropped that I hadn't picked up on was the similarity in the pattern in the Gulf and Caribbean to 1999 (nobody's analog that I can remember). He mentioned Bret which kind of formed in the BoC from a wave that snuck in from the SWC but that was in August rather than July. He pondered whether this is telling us something for later on in the season (one may recall he's got Texas at > Cat 2 influence this year).
Interestingly SW FL got hit by 2 mini-storms that year too (if the Gulf pattern ends up following in the footsteps of 1999).
FWIW, here's the Bret FAQ.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 09:38 PM |
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Re: see if it sits
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Hey Colleen,
I really do want it to develop, I really do. It's just that even if a piece stays over open water and somehow makes it to just south of the Yucatan, the sheer will shred it to bits. It's starting to get frustrating going this deep into the season without so much as a TD (well, at least an "official" TD). Think there's a general consensus on this board that the storm which trashed Hispaniola in late May was a TD, even if not so designated.
Steve, yeah I read about Bret this am from Joe, but didn't pay it much mind...read your FWIW...forgot how quickly Bret formed and how quickly he intensified -- from 90 kts to 125 in under 6 hours. Certainly not one for the record books, but it does show to go ya that under better conditions (like time of year-August), these things can get cranking and in a hurry.
LI Phil
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 10:31 PM |
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irritating small things
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i've heard sc and bobbi pointing and fussing about two particular areas for the last couple of days; reserved comment (decided both would go away, never amount to anything.. the weather, not the people). but neither system has made as quick an exit as i suspected, so i'll give them each a prop this afternoon.
sw caribbean is wave action at the surface with upper ventilation that is staying in place.. perhaps some weak convergence. expected 850mb easterlies to clean this area out, send it eastpac-king.. but it's insisting it's there today (as is bobbi). like a meteorologic god i am willing it to leave the basin as it should.. yes, very little doubt it's leaving the basin. if it's nudging the yucatan tomorrow i'll start paying attention.
now, the gulf thing. something so terribly insignificant for the last couple of days i can't believe the feature is lingering. summercyclone is even worse than me when it comes to poking around the subtropics for slim-to-none features (incredible). it's in an area of some upper divergence (decent-good for development).. and has a very weak surface trough.. and then there's scattered mjo-aided convection. again, i am willing it to go away, or drift west into mexico. of course even without looking at models i know heights are going to fall over the eastern u.s. late in the week, and that should keep it's westward progress slow. i'd say it has slightly more of a chance.. if it lingers in the gulf. but it has a hell of a long way to go.
east atlantic isn't causing much ruckus. waves come off and melt like the wicked witch of the west. there's the blas clock, and the upstream implications of it's presence (probably aiding the riding over the sw caribbean via upper wake effects).. over the weekend and into early next week would be the window if that correspondence were to work. it's usually more of an august-september thing, prolly no dice.
there's really nothing happening, that was all too much to write. phil, it's a'ite, you can put the nix on the 'good post' thing. i won't feel bad, for one. constructive criticism is my preferred feedback (just the way i am).
..otherwise, i might start making bad posts just to spite you.
HF 2231z13july
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jul 13 2004 10:50 PM |
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Re: irritating small things
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HF, great post...as al (oops).
>>> ..otherwise, i might start making bad posts just to spite you LOL!
Thanks for pointing these things out. Gives me a little more confidence to start making more assertive (rather than "opinionated") posts as I'm slowly learning from the masters. I think you're in agreement with me that if we don't get some kind of development in the next week or so, with the projected mjo flip as well as other seasonal factors, we're probably not going to see anything until 8/10 and beyond. You, Steve & Rob Mann all have alluded to this fact, as has Bastard(i).
Haven't checked it this evening, but if you get a chance, is the UKMET still trying to put the latest African wave into the islands by this weekend? I think this may be our last, best shot a development for a long time...but, once mid august hits...we should have quite a bit of development.
Cheers!
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 12:43 AM |
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you sound testy hf, watching loops here
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Listen normally I don't jump up and down and go gaga over the SW Carib. Seriously detest the Carib and any mention of it most of the time.
But in a hostile enironment I think its within climo and possibilities for it to develop a bit or at least hang in there.
Fact that Bastardi and others even mentioned it is the proof in the pudding so to speak..what kind of pudding I dont know.
Check it out tomorrow.. maybe when Blas moves off into the blue pacific?
As for little annoying things.. only BIG annoying things bother me.
take care... bobbi
| HanKFranK |
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| Wed Jul 14 2004 04:30 AM |
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testy as buddha
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testy? nah, i'm a mellow guy. meticulous, though. usually i'm the one pointing out impossible situations just to cover the bases.. tried to fight the urge, but you (bobbi) and sc bird-dogged those features and they kept lingering.. my ability to deny their existence was only so much.
so anyway i added mention and emphasis that neither has a chance. 'das all.
HF 0430z14july
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 05:42 AM |
Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here
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This "thing" in the GOM/Caribbean/Wherever is going to do one of three things shortly:
Disappear
Start Happenin'
Drive us to Drink
I'm not gonna argue over this flip and that flop; in the end all that really matters is whether or not it develops. If it does, it does. If it doesn't, it doesn't.
It doesn't mean we have to go on and on about who's right and who's wrong. Let the politicians stick that particular area of expertise.
Peace
Colleen
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 07:34 AM |
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Re: you sound testy hf, watching loops here
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The low level steering flow should continue to push the wave west. The wave was in the central Caribbean a couple days ago, so it's definately progressing westward. There is a slight chance that some moisture can get pulled northward into the Gulf of Mexico, but upper level winds are marginal in that area.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:49 AM |
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Several days time?
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Check out the extremely vigorous system currently over Africa. If it reaches the Atlantic in a similar state maybe it will have a chance for development. This one looks like it is a little further north than the waves which have emerged recently. Perhaps this will be something to watch down the line...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM |
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Re: Several days time?
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Looking good this morning....wave in western africa. Wave at 25W not looking too bad either. Cheers!!
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 11:53 AM |
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Re: Several days time?
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Looks good over land .. Wondering what the Atlantic holds in store for it? I will have to watch it a couple of days and see if it indeed should be watched. Might have to sharpen my pencil again. Seems strange to me that everything is so far south this year. Central America should get some nice rains.
Waiting for the first Little one to track. Keep your eyes open we never know when the first may occour.
Have a great day all.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 12:23 PM |
EL NINO
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The SOI has been staying negative and the SST's have been somewhat increasing around the equator. I know most of the pros have said neutral for this season and I hope there right. The question is when will EL Nino be truely established?? The waves are starting to look like the last El Nino when they came off and poof. I think it is more climo then any El Nino effect. I still think around 14 names this year because it's still early and there are more + then - effects for this season.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 12:27 PM |
Waves Coming off Africa
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Wow...if the present waves coming off of Africa are any indication of what the CV season holds, we may be in for a heck of a ride. We may not be seeing much now, but I think that will change soon.
Colleen
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: 1999
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Thanks for bringing that up, I recognized the pattern as being familar, but couldn't remember the year. The north flow over the Gulf is what I remember, not very climo. It may bring a MCS down that occasionally can develop (think Danny back in , what year was that??? 97?, for example), but, generally, it disrupts, not aids.
Interesting MCS again s of La, that pattern can only repeat so many times before something happens...
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: Waves Coming off Africa
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Hey Colleen,
That's about the only interesting thing this morning...the African wave train. Especially the absolute MONSTER poised to hit the Atlantic later today. Whole bunch of waves meandering across the pond, probably too far south to worry about...looks like the one just southeast of the Islands will bump into SA. Nada going on in the GOM, system in the West Carib heading west across Central America, though, as HF pointed out, is still, unexplicably, tenaciously hanging on.
One feature of possible interest this weekend is a possible "rogue" storm forming off the coast of NC and heading up the coast towards me. JB mentioned this and, to paraphrase, "as close to a tropical storm without being one" as one could ever see. He likened it to two previous events, one in August 2002 and one in August 1994. The '02 event saw 40-50 mph wind gusts and featured a warm core eye like feature. The '94 event was even worse: "a rouge storm pounded coastal southern New England and Long Island, sinking boats with wind gusts to 60 mph and 3-5 inches of rain." Unfortunately, other than this possibility, not really anything else going on anywhere
Hey Lonny, go back a few threads and read the extensive El Nino discussions. The basin will stay NEUTRAL for the season, even if an El Nino does develop, it will not occur in time to have an effect this year
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: Waves Coming off Africa
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Anyone notice the convection flaring up east of the Windward Islands? There doesn't seem to be much shear and the water temperatures are warm. However, there is dry air ahead of it. If it makes it through the E. Caribbean we may have something to watch down the line. That's if it doesn't crash into South America as Phil pointed out.
The wave over Africa doesn't look as impressive as it did a few hours ago, but it is still strong. Let's see if it collapses over the Atlantic or holds together.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 04:04 PM |
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Re: Waves Coming off Africa
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Yep, another east of the islands blob. One of these will light up
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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Quote:
The SOI has been staying negative and the SST's have been somewhat increasing around the equator. I know most of the pros have said neutral for this season and I hope there right. The question is when will EL Nino be truely established?? The waves are starting to look like the last El Nino when they came off and poof. I think it is more climo then any El Nino effect. I still think around 14 names this year because it's still early and there are more + then - effects for this season.
ENSO region 3.4 has been warming but regions 1 and 2 are relatively cooler than average. There are a lot of warming fluctiations due to MJO and SOI changes but I don't see any long term trends that would incidcate that we're about to have an El Nino event. The SOI has been fluctuating a lot but the 90 day average is actually slightly positive.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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Not exactly sure, was that a "self-rave"? LOL
Thanks for replying Jason. Let's end the El Nino discussion here & now, please.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 07:24 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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>>Thanks for replying Jason. Let's end the El Nino discussion here & now, please.
nowayman. El Nino, dude. Smokin'. Partying around Christmas. Ninomeister. El Torro. The boy. Man boobs.
*ahem*
The ENSO forecast models are trending more and more toward neutral each month. There will be mixed signals over the next few months, but ultimately it will be the Atlantic Water Temps that will be most influential over what forms where and how strong it gets. Speaking of Atlantic Water Temperature Profiles (nice segweigh, eh?), temperatures off of West Central Florida are approaching 90. Yikes. That's nearing Jacuzzi temps.
https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif
Also shows some of Bastardi's thinking in regards to a strong-severe Western Florida year.
While I'm at it, here's a great site you might want to bookmark for Canadian activity:
http://www.novaweather.net/
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 07:58 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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Steve,
Nice copy-guy SNL reference. LOL. Perhaps you misunderstood, I was just hoping we could end all references to El Nino affecting the 04 Tropical Season, at least on the main board. Getting trite, beating a dead horse, ya know? If you want to debate it, ask Ed to give it a forum. Now, I'm up for some good SOI, MJO, QBO debates. Anything to give the board some fodder till we get something to track.
I did notice those superwarm SSTs of the Fla coast. If they can start migrating south...could spell trouble down the road. The whole GOM's becoming a hot tub...
Peace out,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 08:23 PM |
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Hot in Florida
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First off.. may I personally thank Steve for that beautiful site, always had that really nice wide view image of the Alantic and now it even moves. Great site.. colorful, I like it. Thanks.
http://gfx.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/satell...ges=1&clf=1
Second of all... as for El Nino... and having his own site.. Why stop there? Why don't we give him his on TV Show.. maybe on TWC.. you know people are getting tired of those storm reruns. Maybe a bunch of El Nino stories.. like the day the earth stood still in California from too much rain and other ways it affects our weather.
Personally I don't think Ed needs to comparmentalize every aspect of hurricane forecasting. Next think you know MJO would want his own time slot. Bastard would call in with an offer to do the tilting negative dragon thing and I might want to expound on dust.
STorms like people are made of up many parts and aspects. Don't think we should break everything down to one aspect anymore than we should break people down into one part of their body or one part of their personality. No.. we are a composite of everything.. so are storms.
And, right now.. if y'all hadn't noticed there aren't a lot of storms and unless we take off and all go fishing we may as well relax a bit and talk in general on the tropics.
Today I'll take the Gulf for maybe 25% chance of development.
Sorry if I don't pick up a lot of your references. I'm sort of old school and people need to just get in my face up close and spell things out for me or I miss them.
You're funny Steve.. keep laughing.
Phil.. breathe...
Bobbi
great site.. so much easier to see the deep color against that pretty greenish background
oh and By The Way.. giving up on the Carib. I may cut it off my charts completely so I don't even bother to look.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 08:45 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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Not only west central Florida, but east as well. The buoy 120 nm off New Smyrna Beach is 87, Lake Worth 87. Remember last year when the SSTs near the beach were in the upper 50's
BTW, watching the area near east of the Windwards still. Se if it evolves into something. Cheers!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: EL NINO
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Oh, Squall line heading toward the West African Coast.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 08:53 PM |
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A repeat of 1998?
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Since there is not much to talk about in the tropics, I thought I might just throw in an observation for the future.
This year looks like it may be shaping up to be a repeat of 1998. The MJO is expected to become a favourable factor around mid-August through early-September. Rob M said a couple of days ago that it could lead to a burst of strong activity throughout this period, with a calmer mid-September with another (smaller) burst at the beginning of October. This is basically the same set up as in 1998.
Also, the strong waves emerging from Africa have prompted many to predict that this will be a strong CV year - like 1998.
It was a big year for the US - 7 landfalling storms, with Hurricanes Bonnie and Georges (near Steve's neighbourhood, am I right?)
And, by a coincidence, same names this year!
Anyway, that's just my opinion - for what it's worth. Cheers!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 08:57 PM |
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Re: A repeat of 1998?
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I've thought a lot on 98.. was a good year for tracking with a lot of friends. I remember it well.. before some people disapeered round here give or take in the summer of 99.
Eitherway and where ever.. I came on to say I'm not mega impressed with the African Wave.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:05 PM |
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Re: A repeat of 1998?
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Yes, 1998 was a good year for tracking. That was the year I first got interested in storms, when Hurricane Bonnie was on the news. That's where it all started. It would be interesting if we were to have a similar year this year.
On the subject of the wave, I have to agree with you Bobbi. It doesn't look nearly as impressive as it did earlier today. Still, maybe if it makes it across to the Caribbean area it might have a chance. That's a big IF though.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: A repeat of 1998?
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That's correct James. Georges ultimately went in on the Mississippi Coast in either Harrison or Jackson County, MS (Biloxi-Ocean Springs-Pascagoula) after giving us a scare here in New Orleans. I correctly predicted to my wife that we'd see winds of about 50mph and maybe .25" of rainfall out of the system. That didn't stop her from freaking as all her friends kept calling telling her to "get out" as they had their kids safely tucked away. We rode it out anyway after I told her I wasn't going anywhere except to the store for more beer.
However, due to the strong northerly flow across the area, many camps on the Southshore of Lake Pontchartrain and Brunnings Seafood Restaurant at West End were completely destroyed by waves. The city lost power and was in chaos. I'm just west of the city and all we lost was cable for an hour or so that Monday morning. The Superdome was used as a last resort shelter for the inner-city poor and they plundered everything from cannisters of fountain softdrinks to some of the seating in the Superdome itself. It was unbelievable.
Many able-bodied residents evacuated because of the recent memory of Frances which dumped torrential rains on our area a week or two prior as it spun off the coast of South Texas. Also, we got TS Hermine that year directly overhead. The problem with Hermine was that all her convection was displaced east of Mobile Bay. That was a waste of a tropical storm.
For other Georges references, check out the page below. The Hurricane Hunters actually got some good photos of Georges' lightshow (lights & sprites as they call it). You can follow the links from the linked site below:
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/georges.htm
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:28 PM |
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Re: A repeat of 1998?
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James-names the sames-but Gaston will have to threaten Steve, not Georges-redux.
Steve-o, Personally I love the recollections of storms past, but you know Ed's gonna move that the second he check's in. Come to think of it, he's gonna have a lot of editing to do (on me, too
) In slow times, I think these posts should remain (mostly) untouched, but the "proper" forum is the "Storms Past" (or whatever it's called).I'm only the messenger here...as I said, in slow times I think we should post away...
Wouldn't mind a repeat of '98 either
Peace,
LI Phil
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:38 PM |
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other late starts
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since continuous satellite surveillance began (1966), there have only been three years with no depressions before July 20:
1969--TD1 on Jul 25, TS Anna on Jul 26
1978--TD1 on Jul 30, TS Amelia later that day
1998--TD1 on Jul 27, TS Alex on Jul 28
1990, had TD1 in May, but nothing in June, so the first TD of the season was Jul 22, and became Arthur Jul 24
all of the above seasons were active:
18 in 1969, 11 in 1978, 14 in 1990 and 1998
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:46 PM |
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Re: A repeat of 1998?
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what? no NO...
we're not transitioning out of a mega el nino event into a strong la nina. that was 1998. nothing so drastic.. we're enso neutral, whole different animal. 1953 is the quoted year i keep hearing.. i don't really know much about that season aside from the storm tracks and distribution (active/mostly nonlandfalling season). as far as getting an mjo signature match.. that would be even tougher. my analog years of 1990 and 2003 featured an mjo damping event.. it literally faded to nothing for a month or two either summer. perhaps they aren't that good.
i'm not really impressed by any of the analog years, to be honest. 14/14/16 named storms on the spread. 1990 had yet to start (arthur 22july).
models right now not providing much hope of anything developing near term. emerging wave signature is tracked but nothing more. will need some more run to run insistence before giving it more than a glance.
HF 2147z14july
| HanKFranK |
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| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:53 PM |
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Re: other late starts
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there may be a statistic to bust the given analysis, varmint. by that i refer to the 'strong tropical disturbance' in late may.. you know, that tropical cyclone nhc acted clueless about while it drowned 3000 people in haiti/dr. maybe your post will stand true.. we'll know after the season when they post-analyze (issue weather information six months too late).
but yeah, late starting seasons tend to make up for it by breaking out and running wide open. i would like to know where you got the info on depression formation dates, though. not in the nhc archives for sure.
HF 2153z14july
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 09:55 PM |
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Phil...wake up and smell the chamomille tea
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It's so slow you could fall asleep looking through websites on old storms. This IS the slow time.. we aren't even in prime time. It's as slow and sleepy as it gets. Cuban Coffee wouldn't wake up the tropics let alone an energy drink.
I'm so bored I'm quilting covers with initials.. mjo, mao, irt, nfl, come on guys give it a yell.
Let me make this clear, simple.
1) African Wave has not rolled off the coast and it is already falling apart.
2) The Atlantic Ocean has been swallowed up by dry air that was created by DUST.. stop calling it "dry air" its dry cause a massive DUST storm filled the entire ocean and might even be doing it now but I'm tired of looking at satellites for dust. I'm a hurricane tracker.. and all I've been tracking is dust storms and mjo sites.
3) East of Florida and area where Cristopher and Eduard were last seen fighting with eachother for who gets to be on the top of the tropical heap is.. DEAD. Hot but dead. Ain't no trofs or dangling cold fronts hanging around and there ain't no upper level lows flirting with moisture that might make their way down to the surface. DEAD.
4) Carib hasn't had anything because there have been no dangling fronts and there have been no waves. Get it? Kaput.
5) SW Carib is a big tease and nothing else. Sure someone can call it a better word than me but she ain't putting out any storms.. nope, nada.. she isn't even giving the epac much to smile about. Drop her like a hot potato and stop waiting for her to do something.
6) Aruba, Jamaica..oh i want to take you.. dry.. dry and drier.
7) BOC or the area previously known as "i'd take something even in the BOC heading into Mexico" if you don't like the BOC reference sorry but I don't like Boca in S. Florida much either, ho hummm..falling asleep.
8) The GULF in general.. hahahaha.. you're all getting so desperate you'd watch Earl reruns.
9) The Canadian Maritimes...aren't going to happen unless they catch some tropical moisture from down south and there isn't anything traveling that road so... so.. that's a no go.
10) Am I missing a region? If so.. please..educate me which one, correct me and show me what other tropical area I missed.
We've only have about 3 or 4 statements from the NHC that said more than "tropical development is not expected through Thursday" personally I think they went scuba diving in Biscayne Bay and have left the recording on.
just repeat after me.. this is the slow time
cause eventually something will happen.. it might not be what you want to see happen and it might not be where you want to see it but it's gonna happen, happen sometime..
smile and take a deep breath
think some people around here for whatever reason are losing their sense of humor......................................
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 10:13 PM |
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the source...
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here
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/lib1/nhclib/libpage13.htm
this will get you from 66-77 for the depressions
as for 78, the third storm in the ftp archive was the third depression, so Amelia was the first depression
79-87 i have a satellite dvd that has the satellites and tracks, 88-90 were in the tropical weather section of the Florida Today microfilm archive
91-94:
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/
95+ are at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml
took about 5 years of searching to find most of this (search was finally finished about a week ago)
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 10:20 PM |
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Re: the source...
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also, forgot to mention that about 85-90% of storms have formed after july 10, and about 30% of years have had no storms before August
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jul 14 2004 10:34 PM |
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If you actually took the time to READ my posts
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you might catch on to what I'm saying.
What I'm trying to say, for once and for all, is that once Ed comes on line, he's going to edit and/or move much of the great stuff you've put up. He's big on the "proper forum" thingy, and in this respect I agree with him. I've said it before and I'll say it again, and I've PMed Ed with this, Very Few of us visit any of the other forums, only the main board. That's fine and that's everyone's prerogative.
I've also suggested to Ed to leave stuff up during the slow times, and to a certain extent he has. But some of the posts today WILL be EDited and or moved...you know it. Then you get all indignant when Ed does WHAT HE'S WARNED YOU OF COUNTLESS TIMES.
Hell, he probably Edits me more than anyone...I just deal with it. It's no big deal...really. Anyway, once I've said my piece I'm not going back on it.
So, to sum up: I AM "LIGHTENED UP" AND I HAVE SMELT THE CHAMOMILE TEA AND ANY OTHER REFERENCES YOU WANT TO THROW OUT.
It's almost like you're daring Ed to take you down, so you can rant about it later.
A while back Steve made a point that over the past year the board has been edited a bit too hard. Well, I think Ed heard you and will ease up. But if you know your post is not in the proper place, do make the effort to find the proper place, please? It's real easy. Just click on "Forum (Newest)" under Communication at the left menu. There it lists all the other places to post. Just put it in the right place.
You guys make some GREAT posts and I cannot tell you how much I've learned over the past 5+ years. We're all here because we love the weather.
A'ight {tm by HF}. Please people don't take this the wrong way. I'm not the "heavy" here.
NOW, try to stay on topic, 'kay?
PEACE TO ALL,
LI Phil
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: 3 Areas...look again at the SW Carib as in NOW
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Told you yesterday Bobbi, that there was nothing to worry about in SW Carri and GOM, the first storm waiting for my 75th birthday so August 1st be first one....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 02:49 AM |
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Happy Birthday Old Sailor
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75 huh? My pappy turned 76 this year. I'm sure he never went thur the storms you've seen, but ...he did get shiipped to Korea during the conflict...apparently the worst "action" he ever saw wasn't from the Chinese nationals but the weather demons that plagued his ship on the way there. That's for another time and another forum (yes ED) but that and the horrible typhoons encountered by our military during WWII are the reason we have satellites and an NWS so active today (not the only reason, but a major factor!)
Cheers,
LI Phil
|
Ed Dunham
|
| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 03:51 AM |
|
Just Some Notes
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I moved a few things - to places where no one will read them (except many do read them). Had trouble deciding between the Disaster Forum or the Comedy Shop! One post that got trapped in the shuffle was from Tropics Guy:
Well, finally the rainy season has arrived on the SE coast of Fla, as the upper level winds are blowing the T-storms east ward over the coast, rained hard today in the FT Laud area.
About the tropics currently these words describe it best: zero, nada, zilch (need any more descriptive words?) going on right now., the only faint glimmer may be the wave coming off of Africa but it'll probably dissapate like the others. I had posted in a much earlier post that it may very well be a "1992" year in which the "A" storm won't develop until Aug, it seems like were headed in that direction, but maybe we'll see a TD between now and then.
Just wanted to elaborate a little about how I enjoy reading the non-topic posts about MJO, SAL, etc during the slow times, i've learned a lot from these posts and feel that during these "slow times" that they should stay on this main forum not moved or edited, most people just visit this main board anyway.
TG out
I tend to agree. Keep in mind that the Main Page topic is 'Analysis'...on purpose...because its quiet.
Remember that the site is Forum oriented. Stay on topic. Post it in the correct Forum. No personal attacks.
Thanks,
ED
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: Just Some Notes
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congratulations Rabbit on your hard work.. alot of data there
not much to say today.. really not much at all out there to talk about .. maybe something will pop up
and yeah old sailor you were right..nothing much happened but it was fun watching it ..least there was something to look at
take care all..bobbi
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 02:29 PM |
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All Quiet on the Tropic Front
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Great research Bugs! 5 years? Wow. Thanks for posting it.
Nothing going on AGAIN. Wave exiting Africa looks healthy, and a couple waves just meandering westward. Looks like the Islands will get some t-boomers but there's no organization. August BETTER make up for this.
Joe B. is still keen on the Rogue Storm to form off Hattaras Sunday night and bomb up the EC. That's about all there is out there, and even that's no given.
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 02:34 PM |
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analyze this.....
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https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/OTIS/US058VMET-GIFwxg.OTIS.glbl_sstanomaly.gif
seems to me its a big too cool for things to really spin yet
and.. what was interesting to me about the wave train is its slight north of west axis so that you can see the stair step process that could exist down the road in august
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front
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Maybe the wave will have something to offer in a few days - but I somewhat doubt it.
BTW, if that rogue storm does occur, let us know what it's like won't you Phil?
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 03:47 PM |
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Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front
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Looks like to me that we are certinaly starting to see waves for sure ... in the Eastern Caribbean there a few showers now that are seeming to be stronger at least the cloud tops are white in the color loop.
It is fun to watch... I know all want to track or else why would we be here. Hope this year brings lots to track but no damage to property or lives
Back to work have a good day all.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 04:06 PM |
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Re: All Quiet on the Tropic Front
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Looks like things are shaping up in the tropics again. Moisture returning, and impulses looking a bit more interesting. Eastern caribbean disturbance popcorn again; area crossing 40W looks like it has possibilities, as well as the t'storms south of the CV. There's the darn Low in the eastern GL that doesn't want to move anytime soon. Wonder what affect that will have on any development possibilities,as it is causing a SW'erly flow across the SE states
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 04:25 PM |
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Commentary...
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This comes from Mark Sudduth, of hurricanetrack.com. Pretty neat little site, and he offers, free of charge, daily commentary:
As I look at conditions across the Atlantic Basin, it is clear that just about all of the ingredients needed to form a hurricane are in place. Water temps are plenty warm, upper level winds are favorable in several areas and there are tropical waves moving steadily off of Africa every few days. So what's the hold up? Dry, stable air. A layer of African dust and dry air is choking off any chance of deep convection developing right now in the deep tropics. Until that layer (called SAL or Saharan Air Layer) eases up, it is unlikely that we will see any development in the eastern Atlantic. However, over the next few weeks, as water temperatures get even warmer in the eastern Atlantic, the lower levels of the atmosphere will become more humid and unstable. It is no coincidence that the so-called "Cape Verde" season usually kicks off around the middle of August. So enjoy the calm right now- because there is still every indication that the peak of the season will be very busy.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 04:34 PM |
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Re: Commentary...
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Well, I'm jumping the gun here, but there is a bit of a tumble in the area of cloudiness near 11N/45W. Give it a look. Things are beginning to moisten up as each day goes by. We're getting close now. Cheers!!
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 04:42 PM |
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Re: Commentary...
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Well As this year goes The nhc stil doing their thing and not what they should be doing. Why you ask i am bashing the nhc again. Well it goes back to analogs,and the truth is we have already had are first TS that hit hati in may, and a that week TD out buy bermuda. So if were looking at anaologs we need to search out one's in wich before july 20th we already had 2 storms, and an analog with a may storm. I heard 1990 was a good analog for this year and it had a td or was a storm in may. NE HOO thats my 2 cents
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 04:56 PM |
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Unnamed Storms
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Robert,
Fair point. I thank many of us on this board feel the Hispaniola storm in late may was at least a TD. Not so sure about the Bermuda system, but you could also make a decent argument we had a TD in the gulf on June 14. NHC chose not to classify.
Now the Bermuda & Gulf storms didn't really cause any mischief, so I won't argue with the NHC call. But the Hispaniola disaster, where I'm sure there were inadequate (if any) warnings, definitely warrants a post-season look-see. Doubt they'll change their call.
You raise an interesting point about the analogs...if we DO look at any of these three storms as having at least been a TD or TS, then maybe we need to look at different years.
I'll give NHC the benefit of the doubt...they're the pros.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 05:27 PM |
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Question about the Bermuda High.
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Hello Robert,
Have you heard anything about fires in South Florida, which indicate the Bermuda high getting into place from Bermuda to S. Florida. Setting Florida up for a land strike this season.
???
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: Commentary...
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Steve H, I see that little twirl also, probably nothing but you never know. btw hello everyone
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Question about the Bermuda High.
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It has been an extremely dry heat in South Florida this summer. I do not recall another summer so dry and with a very dry heat. We have had fires in our area, just west of the city of Miami for the last 10-14 days and in fact smoke was the forecast and the weather earlier this week.
I wonder if that is a prelude to a strike later this summer because we usually get plenty of rain in the summer, but not this one. So far...
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 06:55 PM |
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Observations
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GVAC.html
Interesting the wind direction from the north today at the Cape Verde islands meaning that some type of circulation is with the wave emerging Africa.Will this be the first TD of the season? Well at least there is more moist air in the tropical atlantic and less sal that may help this wave to develop but time will tell what will happpen.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 06:59 PM |
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For Cocoa & GR Miami
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A quick "google" search yielded this article from the Miami Herald, although it's posted on the South Carolina State homepage (???). Should help to answer some of your questions.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: Observations
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More convection firing over water with the disturbance south of the CV......we shall see
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 07:15 PM |
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Great Article
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Thanks, it was a interesting read.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 07:19 PM |
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Re: Observations
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Maybe the system will be mentioned in the next TWO - if it survives. Perhaps it will even be assigned an invest if it maintains itself.
Starting to get the feeling that any potential system that appears will be doomed to dissipate soon after. Of course, the time will come when one of these disturbances makes it to named status. The anticipation will make it better when it finally happens.
P.S. Thanks for the link Phil. An interesting article.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 09:12 PM |
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Re: Unnamed Storms
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my thoughts on these
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0405/23/04052320_gevis.gif the system in may looked alot like the unnamed 2000 subtropical storm while in the Caribbean, and winds were sustained according to buoys at 40mph, so it was very likely a subtropical storm
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0405/25/04052520_gevis.gif
when it got into the atlantic looked like a depression
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/13/04061320_gevis.gif
gulf system may have been a depression; i have my doubts because the surface center on loops appeared to be west of the main convection
the Atlantic system was probably a subtropical storm either here
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/14/04061420_gevis.gif
or here
ftp://virga.sfsu.edu/pub/satimgs/gevis/big/0406/17/04061720_gevis.gif (look closely at tropical appearance in center)
the Bermuda system may have been, but again, i have doubts, because the center was not all that organized
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 09:17 PM |
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Re:site prob
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The 'read latest comments' is not working, only goes to 2nd page.
Heads up on the
system in the islands, it has potential in W Carib.sc
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 15 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re:site prob
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The wind shear is still strong in the carri, this system just looks like a rain maker as the wave heads west.
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 12:20 AM |
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My Thoughts on E ATL Wave
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Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 15 July 2004 - 8:05 PM EDT
The only area worth noting this evening, is a tropical wave that pushed west into the eastern Atlantic earlier today. Upper level winds are favorable for development. However, a lot of dry air is still in place. The main parameter that is still inhibiting development is the Saharan Air Layer. None of the global models show any indication of future tropical development. But the GFS does clearly show the wave and associated surface low pressure moving westward toward the Lesser Antilles over the next six days. If the wave still appears to be fairly well-organized by 30-35W, then things may begin to get interesting.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 12:24 AM |
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A Possibility For Development?
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Looks like the wave that entrained itself off of Africa is really holding itself together well. I think if it can keep itself together towards 30-35W, we may have a legit shot at our first TD!
It's really impressing me to this point (and others..Steve H). For those of us Jonesing for our first storm, this may be our last best chance till Mid-August....so...let's follow this one.
I won't go ga-ga for another day or so...but...this could be "THE ONE"
Peace y'all,
LI Phil
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 12:45 AM |
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Re: My Thoughts on E ATL Wave
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Hey Jason,
Didn't even realize you posted moments before me. Interesting we're mentioning the same things about this wave. Yeah, let's give it some time, but it has certainly surprised to this point. This am, it was "just another wave" but this evening it's something to watch, and maybe even get excited about (relatively speaking). I mean it's not going to become Isabel or anything, far from it, but it could be Alex...woo hoo.
Talk to me 24 hours from now...
LI Phil
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 01:15 AM |
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East atlantic wave potential?
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http://www.eglin.af.mil/weather/tropics.html
Very interesting comments from the squadron about the wave at east atlantic that at least tonight it is holding some convection.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: East atlantic wave potential?
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Luis,
Probably as much from boredom as from any true meterology, but....this has ALEX written all over it. Just imagine if this were late August early September. We'd be calling for the second coming of ...well... any number of CV storms.
I could be wrong (lord knows that wouldn't be the first time) but I think this one may finally have the stones to crack the SAL. I mean, think about, except for that, we've got lower pressures, lesser shear, everything that portends development except time of year.
Since climo IS (yes Bobbi) dictating SOMETHING either in the basin or in the MDR, why not this one.
Hey, my 6/14 "guess" was just that, but I'm gonna climb aboard this bad boy and either ride it into the sunset (or, ala "How I learned to love the bomb and....") or ... well, wait for the next impulse on August 8th.
A'ight [tm HF] that's it for now. Maybe, just maybe, this is NEO=the one.
LI Phil
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 03:47 AM |
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7/15/04 Tropics...
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A lot of stuff rolling tonight. Hong Kong is getting hit by a 40k Tropical Storm (far west track, north of Taiwan). Watching the WPAC can occasionally yield clues about future events in the Atlantic. 99W is also up, and correspondingly, the Southern Oscillation Index has been slightly negative. That portends nothing extreme for the WPAC, but shows the energy in the area. In the EPAC, Blas is history and 91E is making up its mind. I don't see much out of it.
On our side, the Gulf continues to boil. If you go to the OTIS Model Actual SST's , you will see that the Gulf of Mexico has the hottest water temperatures of the basin. A closer look at the High-res SST's reveals that there is plenty of Upper 80 degree water off the LA, MS, AL, FL, West Cuban and Bahamian Coasts. It's interesting how close the hottest water is to land. If there happened to be anything threatening, there would have been some juice available near some of the potential landfall areas.
I'm liking the overall look of the GOES-12 IR tonight. There's a lot of color /Bobbi out there. The trof movnig into the SE, the interaction of the wave-entangled ULL with the leading edges of the trof, the wave moving by Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands (saw a report by Cycloneye where he got some showers but the pressures stayed around 29.97-30.00 with the passage of the ECAR wave), and the new wave with the low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic. There's a lot of heat buildup and energy heading toward the SE Coast. A potential rogue storm blowing up off the Carolinas or VA coastal waters would have some energy to work with.
Steve
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 10:55 AM |
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Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts
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Okay...first off.
Thank you Cyclone in PR for that incredible site..sent it to my brother in Greece..he'll love it. Funny how we can pass sites around the world like some relay race wand. There he is in Thessaloniki sitting in his dolphin tee shirt watching the tropics.
You can take the boy out of Florida but you can't take the Florida out of the boy.
Thank u.. love that wide angle.
Secondly.. love that wave.. not going to lose my heart to the wave ..not yet but.. hard not to smile and get a cheap thrill
Third.. What happens (HF?) when the wave gets a bit further west under that ridge.. there is a ridge building out there.. trying to build bit by bit..it hasn't reached it yet.
Think we need to look at SAL sites more than water temps now.. but.. well..
Has my heart beating a little faster and yeah..
Second Coming is a good thought, Third or Fourth even better.
Nice site.. nice wave.. too soon to tell but a pretty visual for all you who need visuals.
Bobbi
oh and steve.. been watching subtle changes in tropical atlantic more than overall but have seen some changes too
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 12:00 PM |
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Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts
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Bobbie, keep an eye on the wave approaching 50W.....loks to have some potential. Eastern wve convection is being pushed out ahead of the wave axis, but still looks fairly impressive. More waiting
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 02:14 PM |
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Re: 7/15/04 Tropics...my thoughts
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The convection is still being pushed ahead of the wave axis but it is holding together - for now. Does Joe B. have anything to say about it?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 02:23 PM |
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Tropical Goings On...
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Oh yeah...things are definitely afoot. As Steve H. pointed out, the wave at about 50W may need to be watched, but what I'm pumped for is the BIG wave crossing 30W. Looks even better than it did last night. And with the ridge building across the western atlantic...well...things could get mighty interesting. SOI is back negative again and the African wave train has probably only got one more pulse left (last one is over central africa now). So, while things may heat up in the short term, these few waves look to be our last hope for probably 3-4 weeks.
As Steve (the OTHER Steve) pointed out last night, the WestPAC typhoon is dumping tropical juice on Hong Kong...maybe teleconnecting, but probably not.
And JB's still keen on the rogue storm forming late Sunday night and bring tropic-like conditions (but the storm will NOT be of tropical origin) up my way Monday: "The call is to jump the center to just east of Norfolk Sunday at midnight, then take it up through Long Island. This raises the spectre of gales for a few hours on beaches from the Delmarva to New England as the storm comes northward, the chance that we will really see a show with the radar pics, and what people would have mistaken for a tropical storm 100 years ago. While this is not a lock, it is my current thinking."
So I may be in for a bit of mischief as I grudgingly return to the office Monday am.
We could be in for some action (I sure HOPE so...so quiet), 'cause it sure looks like the tropics will be shutting down for a while in a week or so.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 02:43 PM |
|
wouldnt it be funny if tropics heated up?
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Ongoing discussion of it slowing down (didn't know it could slow down from a crawl.. stop?) and instead if it heated up. Somehow would be just about perfect the way this summer is going.
Last week in July think something will develop.
As for the wave.. watching.
No E after the Bobbi Steve, E-less okay ??
and.. like that wave closer in.. but will take a bit for me to really believe ..
watching tho
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 03:03 PM |
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A Little spin below Cuba?
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Just posting this to get some feedback: right below Cuba, there's a complex of t-storms firing up. Looking at it a few times, there seems to be a little spin to it, but I'm not sure.
Anyone have any thoughts on whether what I'm seeing is there and if it is, what is the environment around it?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 03:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Goings On...
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That wave does look a little better than yesterday. It's hanging on to its convection more stubbornly than 95L did a short while back. Also, GFS still develops a closed low heading towards the Caribbean by next Thursday. Time will tell with this one - persistence is definately the key. I wouldn't be that surprised to see an invest sometime in the next couple of days. Fingers crossed with this wave.
It's currently encountering some slightly drier air and dust, but as others have said, there is more moist air out there now than there has been of late, so the system may have more of a chance than others recently. If this wave does develop, it seems that Alex will be doing just what he did 6 years ago.
Colleen, there does look to be a slight spin south of Cuba. There is plenty of moist air in the vicinity with warm SSTs.
Oh and Phil, if it happens, enjoy the action in LI this weekend/Monday!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 03:14 PM |
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Re: A Little spin below Cuba?
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ULL.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 03:36 PM |
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Re: East atlantic wave potential?
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Yes, it has the 'look'.....
Noticed convection south of Cuba too, ULL it is, we will see if it can translate down..it will probably lift out.
Lightning storm like I have never seen here last night....
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: A Little spin below Cuba?
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Hey Collen, How'd you find your password? Or did you re-register. For some reason it didn't recognize steve h. this year
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 04:31 PM |
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Disturbance south of Coo-bah
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Been looking at IR loops of the disturbance south of Cuba, and it's not all that impressive. Doesn't appear to have much circulation right now, and the cloud tops aren't particularly cold. The wave just off Nicaragua, which unfortunately is going inland, has a much better signature. The wave south of Hispaniola is just moseying along on it's merry way...nothing doing there.
I still think our best chances are to the east, with the wave near 50W/10N looking much healthier and the much aforementioned wave that came off Africa yesterday near 30W/10N. That's one's got Alex written all over it.
Cheers,
LI Phil
Steve H. I'll PM Mike for you on the password deal. He should be able to fix you up...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: Just an interesting pic
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Look quick, the link will change:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
sc
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 06:11 PM |
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Another wave bites the dust
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Well no dice for the east atlantic wave as the SAL once again is doing it's thing of not letting things moist up sufficient to get the waves going.Another SAL area moving off africa is lowering humidity values to 20% and also the convection has raced well ahead of the wave axis which is at 23w per 2:05 PM discussion.So guys I think we will have to wait until early to mid august for Alex to form unless something appears suddenly on the pipe.Sorry Phil as you had faith this wave was Alex all written.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 06:32 PM |
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strong storms over south florida and watching the wave
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Strong strong line going thru looks and sounds like Twister movie, lions and tigers and bears..
As for wave out by Africa.. wait a bit before declaring it dead and wait a bit before singing it's praises.
SAL is a major player right now..maybe more than MJO.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 06:33 PM |
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Re: Looks good to me! Best so far...
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http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 06:38 PM |
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cuba and atlantic
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http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
the ULL is over the Yucatan; there is a very weak surface low south of Cuba, because the IR shows the clouds south of western Cuba moving north, and the visible shows low clouds south of western tip of Cuba moving southeast (look very closely, and speed up the visible loop)
the Atlantic system is somewhat far south, but because of this, it may escape any signifigant shear, and does appear to be getting better organized
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Another wave bites the dust
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Luis,
I'm not so sure this one is DOA. Models still track it thru the Islands in a couple of days. It's fighting the good fight, and this may be the one to finally 'splode. Maybe not Alex, but I'm not giving up yet. SAL is causing all kinds of problems, for sure, and the 2:05 TWD certainly didn't give any encouragement.
That would really 5u<k if this one gets killed off, cause mid-August is a long time to wait.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 07:49 PM |
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Re: Another wave bites the dust
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I agree with you Phil, I don't think that we should be so fast to write this one off. Let's see if it can make it to the western Atlantic and Caribbean in some form or another. It's gonna have to move a bit further north if it's going to avoid crashing into South America, though.
BTW, I know that a negative MJO factor enhances the chances of development, but would an unfavourable MJO prevent any storms forming whatsoever? Is there an albeit smaller chance of something forming before mid-August?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 08:04 PM |
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Forgotten Password? For Steve H.
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Steve H.
John C. posted this a while back, took me a while, but I found it:
If your having password problems Just email Mike or Myself with your current real email and we will change the email in your user profile and email you your new password.
john@flhurricane.com
mike@flhurricane.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 08:29 PM |
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3 things
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wave is staying together because it is so far south and further from the SAL
wave is moving too fast
i want to change the password to one of my own making that makes sense that i can remember anywhere ...that was the question but thank you phil anyway... i keep getting new odd combos of letters..there must be a way i can just put in my password and change to a new one
in all years storms form no matter the conditions, just more positive conditions enhance the chance of forming
ok was more than 3.. sorry
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 08:38 PM |
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Re: Passwords
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It does allow you to change to one you like after the intial one, I chnaged mine....
sc
| Rob_M |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 08:52 PM |
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ATL wave...no show
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Not impressed with it right now...development appears very unlikely in both in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 16 July 2004 - 4:30 PM EDT
The one system that is worthy of even a mention is the tropical wave near 25ºW, which is producing scattered convection to the east of its axis. Although shear is currently low in the area, dry air due to the seasonably strong subtropical ridge remains present. Additionally, the Saharan Air Layer is moderate in the Mean Development Region. These two factors are keeping convection associated with this wave minimal, and therefore greatly reducing its chance to form into a tropical cyclone. The GFS, which was showing some slight development yesterday, has backed off quite a bit. It was never in agreement with the other global models, so therefore as it stands now, no model does anything with this wave for the next 6 days. Once it reaches the Caribbean Sea, it will simultaneously reach a stronger shearing environment in part due to the Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough. No development is expected from this wave during its trek through the Mean Development Region and Caribbean Sea.
Elsewhere, the tropics are quiet.
On another note...I want to point out that in the past 55 years, there have only been 4 named storms to form in the Caribbean Sea during the month of July. These include Becky and Celia in 1970, Cesar in 1996, and Claudette in 2003. The first 2 formed in the W Caribbean...whereas the latter 2 were in the E. If you want to get technical about it, you could cross out Becky and Celia because they didn't become TSs until they were in the GOM...which would mean NO W Caribbean formations in July. But regardless of which to count and which to not, the point is it's a very uncommon occurrance...contrary to what is commonly thought to be a hotspot at this time of the year. Even funnier is those storms were all during an E QBO (not the case this year).
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 09:08 PM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Hope can be a cruel thing.
Looks like we may be in for a longer wait than many of us predicted at the beginning of the season. Still, Alex will form sometime and the sooner the better. There is currently something brewing over Africa which may give us something to watch in a few days.
While this slow start is not really unusual, and it has no correlation with the peak of season, it sure is dull. Since the upturn in tropical activity began in 1995, the only other year without a tropical system of any description by July 16th was 1998.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 09:23 PM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Rob,
If what you are saying is correct, and I have no reason to believe otherwise as you & Jason have nailed this season so far, would you think what looks like the final african wave for a while will be the last best hope for any development before mid-August? Or is even that a remote (at best) possibility?
Always enjoy your explanations as you put them in terms we all understand and you back up everything you say with sound meterological data.
Also, several posts ago, I believe it was Robert, questioned NHC's handling of two storms...others have also posted about it. His point was that NHC failed to classify the Hispaniola disaster a TS, and he felt the Bermuda system a month ago should have been classified. His point was about analogs...were these indeed named storms (or at least TDs), we need to look at different years for our analogs. I was just wondering if you might have seen that post and if you had any thoughts on it. Thanks,
Cheers,
LI Phil
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 10:19 PM |
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Re:Correlation Between Florida fires and the 'Season'
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I have found something fascinating and was wondering if anyone had any insight into this. Is their scientific correlation between a 'burning' Florida start to summer (all the dry season related fires) and the shape of the oncoming hurricane season?
I just wonder....
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 10:30 PM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Phil what did I posted before Rob posted his great outlook? Wave bites the dust and that is what is happening with it.It looked promising when it emerged Africa and some here including you Phil said that this is the one that may be Alex but I am afraid we will have to wait until early to mid august to see our first tropical depression however as we know some may argue that that low in late may that affected Haiti and the DR was a TD at that time.But the tropics sometimes offers surprises so have your hopes up because at any given moment something may brew somewhere.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Jul 16 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Thanks for the registry info. Not sure I agree with the SAL factor here. Plenty of moisture in the east atlantic now so I wouldn't say the wave is dead I still like the wave at 50W as well. Unbelieveably strong troughing digging into the SE US right now suppressing the ridge axis way south into the FL Straits. Haven't seen one that strong plow that far south in mid July! Crazy pattern.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Well, my little engine that could is looking rather ragged ATTM. You can clearly see the convection firing off far in front of the wave. I'm not going to raise the white flag though, until this puppy reaches the Islands and encounters even more unfavorable conditions. Should it hold together until then, it may have a slim chance at further development. As Bobbi pointed out, it's pretty far south, so it's not encountering as much dust and dry air as if would if it were a few degrees further north.
It's so f---in' slow I guess we're all grasping at straws, hoping that each piece of convection will magically become Alex. We should know better. As a few have said, Alex will form when Alex will form, I'd just prefer that it's not August 14th. Starting to get more than a little frustrating.
Steve H., I think that your wave at about 48W is probably a goner, although as Spike would remind us, weather is unpredictable, so you never know...it needs to be watched.
Just a quick note about the "rogue" storm Joe B. has been pimping...the local mets up here are actually starting to pick up on it (maybe they learned how to read the models). JB thinks is going to explode, just off the coast, possibly as a lower than 1000 mb storm, while just about every model and met has predicted a storm further east. JB feels we'll have 40 mph+ gusts. I'm not so sure he'll get this one on the button, but at this point, everything is so dead, I'll root for the worst, even if it ruins the backend of the weekend. I am, however, pretty much guaranteed of a wet Sunday/Monday with the possibility of 1-3" (conservatively) or 6+" (as Joe feels a few areas will see).
Fortunately, unlike some areas in Jersey and Penna, we haven't had any flooding or saturated grounds/streams overflowing, etc., so that much rain won't be a problem. However, if it dumps that much on areas that flooded earlier this week, they could be in trouble.
Enough babbling for now. Keeping a lazy eye on the tropics, wishing it were mid-August out there...
LI Phil
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 12:34 AM |
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What about the next wave to emerge Africa?
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http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_40/anis.html
Looks huge there but as we know the sal is awaiting it however as the days go by the time for the CV season to show it's teeth is comming soon so let's see what happens with this new one.
| Rob_M |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 12:47 AM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Hey Phil...
Right now the GFS or other global models don't show anything that raises an eyebrow with the later-to-be TW over continental Africa. Can't go completely by what the models show when we're dealing with something 5+ days out...but I assume they're picking up on a continued dry environment due to SAL and ridge-forcing subsidence. In that case, it'd be basically just as hard for this upcoming wave as the one in progress. Since it's still a ways out I'm not going to say yes or no as to whether it'll become something...but as it stands now, don't hold your breath.
Another thing I want to add...the negative MJO pulse currently over the ATL should be moving out in a week or so, making way for the positive MJO. When a positive MJO is over the region, conditions tend to be less conducive for TC development...as you probably already know. However, it does NOT completely prevent TC development. Even if a positive MJO is over the region, it doesn't mean there's no chance of Alex until the next negative MJO...just makes it a bit harder more or less depending on the other environmental factors. It certainly prevents multiple storm outbreaks, but we can see a lonely TC when the MJO isn't enough to stop favorable conditions in a certain area. So I wouldn't look at it as "no Alex now, no Alex until mid August when the next favorable MJO comes." Indeed if we don't see Alex within a week or so that may very well be the case...but if the dry air and SAL subside enough and couple with the already-favorable factors (W QBO, warm ATC, no El Nino, lower than normal shear, lower than normal SLPAs, slightly warmer than normal SSTAs)...then with the right TW that exits Africa, we could still get a TS, regardless of MJO.
In any case, what is likely is that when that negative MJO DOES enter the basin...all will break loose. Timing still suggests it'll reach the ATL in mid Aug...perfect time to coincide a big bang (if you will) in TC activity. Going to be interesting to see what happens.
As for the system in late May over the DR...I wasn't paying much attention to it at the time, as it happened when Jason and I were busy polishing our 2004 forecast. However, from the satellite images I did see, and ones I found archived...there definately was a low pressure (no doubt), but I don't think it was strong enough to be classified as a TD/TS. Yes, there could have been observations of TD/TS force winds in some locations...but 1)that's to be expected in squalls associated with any strong low, and 2)as I recall they were well away from the center. Plus, convection was being enhanced in part by upper level divergence/shear...so it wasn't a very barotropic system. This would explain my second point about the winds recorded. A very deadly, heavy rainmaker it was, but TC it was not...IMO.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 12:55 AM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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It seemed much the same way last year in the E.ATL. with the SAL.Nothing would develop till it hit pass about the 70W mark.Even this this year seems impossible for the time being.I would not get ot strung out though.I do believe that this season will take off soon enough.The heat and humidity here along the GC has been tough this year.Interesting thoughts springing up though in the forum.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 01:58 AM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Luis, Jav & (especially) Rob,
Thanks for the insights. Not trolling on-line at the moment so not looking at sat pix or commentary.
Yea, Rob, I know that it's not inconceivable that something could fire up during our expected MJO reversal, just not expecting it, 'das all [tm HF].
I guess I should be happy if I get JBs rogue storm this weekend...since there's not really anything else out there. And yes, James88, in another forum, I'll give you a report, IF there's anything to report.
Rob, as far as your pointing out (in the storms' forum) the correlation (or lack thereof) between named storms and season totals, I'm also aware, and not at all concerned (still sticking with 14/8/3). Just wish there was SOMETHING, ANYTHING, to give us a tease.
All us weather nuts have been following the tropix since mid-May only to be diasppointed.
Of course, that will make the August fruit that much sweeter.
N-E-who. G'nite all. Still clinging to that vague, slim chance for july action.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Rob_M |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 02:31 AM |
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Re: ATL wave...no show
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Yeah Phil, I know exactly what you mean...this wait really IS getting boring. Longest period during the season with no systems of at least TD strength since from Jun 1 to Jul 27 in 1998 (when TD1 finally formed and became Alex...ironic eh?). But I'm pretty confident that we'll be bogged to overload mode come the peak of the season.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 03:45 PM |
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Saturday AM
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Nothing new going on. JB still keen on the rogue storm and says the southwest Atlantic, Eastern GOM and western carib will be ripe for development mid to late next week (though he was short on specifics -- only calling it his "idea" and that some of the models are starting to "sniff this out.")
Looks like the last african wave is getting ready to exit the coast tomorrow...probably meet the same fate as all its predecessors.
That's all folks,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 04:03 PM |
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Re: Saturday AM
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Also note there is a LLC with the wave east of the Lesser Antilles. SOme shear from the south is occuring, keeping development at bay. Maybe this is the feature that comes into play. Either that or development of some of the spillage from the SE trough
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 04:28 PM |
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Re: Saturday PM
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Rain from it when it gets here by monday is the only effect from it but I am watching it as it is at very warm waters west of 50w however upper shear is fairly strong in the eastern caribbean sea so let's see what happens as it gets closer to the islands.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 09:12 PM |
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Is "my" wave showing signs of life?
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My "little engine that could" wave is now located around 38W and 15N, is getting better organized and is showing some signs of convection. It's certainly not going to develop where it is, but will be moving to a more favorable region as it chugs westward. Not saying it will develop, but not ready to write it off either.
Lots of indoor chores for me tomorrow, as the low moves off the NC coast and tracks up the northeast coast, dumping anywhere from 1-3". Now, if Bastardi's rogue storm forms, with 40+MPH gales, then I may have to head to the shore and watch the show. Already issuing Special Weather Statements up here...
Cheers,
LI Phil
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 09:40 PM |
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Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?
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Your wave still has a heartbeat Phil. The TWD says "THE WAVE HAS BECOME MUCH
BETTER DEVELOPED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM MET-8
INDICATES THE WAVE IS FARTHER W THAN EARLIER THOUGHT. THERE ARE
ACTUALLY TWO DISTINCT SWIRLS NEAR THE ITCZ...BUT THE MOST IMPRESSIVE
CIRCULATION AND TSTM COVERAGE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN SWIRL."
It seems that the Atlantic may not want to go quiet just yet.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 09:43 PM |
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Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?
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wave around 40W does appear to be getting better organized, now a definate turn with it, but appears to be just a tad elongated SW to NE, and looks like the actual low center is a bit far to the south, at around 8N or 9N. wave to the west also appears now to have an LLC, but is being sheared; I think the eastern one has the best chance at development
bw, is anyone else besides me debating on weather or not to lower the predictions?
also, some kind of low with an upper high appears to be entering the gulf from Mississippi
doesnt show up well on radar, but mid-level circulation is better for development than none
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
alos, how do you all hyperlink the words so I don't have to put these site addresses up??
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 17 2004 09:48 PM |
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URL
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Bugs,
When you "copy" a web site address (URL), simply left click on the "URL" choice below your post under "Instant UBB Code". When the window pops up, you'll see "http://" in highlight. Right click in the box, then "paste" your copied link. Click OK. Then simply type whatever you want to "nickname" the link.
Das all dere is!
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 12:18 AM |
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Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?
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Quote:
bw, is anyone else besides me debating on weather or not to lower the predictions?
If you're talking about season predictions, lowering your numbers would in all likelyhood be a major mistake. I was having a debate with another poster on a different forum in 2000. We were having a big argument about lowering predictions right before all hell broke loose. The person I was talking to lowered his numbers and he busted terribly. June and July do NOT reflect what the peak will be like, and all of the parameters ARE in place...it's just a matter of time my friend.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 12:31 AM |
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Re: Is "my" wave showing signs of life?
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Rabbit and Jason read an articule that I posted at storm forum about this.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 12:50 AM |
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Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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Long shot, but interesting....from Miami NWS afternoon discussion...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WOULD BE A PROBLEM FORECAST IF THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION GET LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH AND SIT OVER VERY WARM GULF WATER FOR DAYS. SOMETIMES SUCH SCENARIOS CAN LEAD TO UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 01:28 AM |
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Re: What did I miss here.. why do you think there will be nothing til August?
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Any Trough sitting in the GOM for an extended period of time, with water temp between 84 and 88 could be a problem but looks like most of the heavy thunder storms are moving into Florida, and forecast to have 15 to 25 Mph sw to w winds next 2 days.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 01:57 AM |
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lowering..
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Wouldn't lower any predictions until after about Aug. 11th or so.
Many very active seasons have nothing early on and many slow ones are busy in may and june.
Til then.. hang in there and wait it out ..
sweat it out?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: lowering..
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I agree LoisCane... don't lower yet and I would say don't until the end of August..... a lot can be packed in a few months! BTW did anyone catch Dr. Lyons (TWC) this am on his idea for a slim chance of formation in the GOM shortly?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 02:35 PM |
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Question
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We have been watching the rotation of water vapor for days now. 30N/55W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can now see "popcorn" type clouds appearing in the center. Does this depict a ULL making it's way down to the center or surface?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 02:59 PM |
Possible Developments???
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I think development will happen within the next 10 days or so...
Possible areas 1. the Gulf, if the low pressure goes down and sits there, as expected and the wave approaching the northern windward islands seems to have a nice rotation, although is very small.
any comments???
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 05:52 PM |
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Re: Possible Developments???
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I too think (hope) something can get going in the next 10 days, possibly within 5 days...Agree that the Gulf is just RIPE for development, if something can get going down there. Also, "my" wave somewhere near 45W south of 15N is still tenaciously hanging on, despite less than favorable conditions.
JB reckons something could get going in the Gulf next week as well, as early as Wednesday, and more likely by next week end.
Looks like JB's rogue storm is doing a number on the Delmarva and Chesapeake as we speak (some 5+" amounts already) and will head up my way as the day progresses. Right now there is no wind to speak of, and I'm doubtful we'll be seeing any gale force winds, but the system is still well south of me. It will be wet, very wet.
Otherwise, it's pretty quiet.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 06:03 PM |
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Link to Bouy
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Here is a link to a bouy in the GOM.
29.21 N 88.20 W (29°12'36"N 88°12'00"W
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42040
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 06:04 PM |
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Re: Possible Developments???
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That "my Wave" is looking fairly good earlt this afternoon, and could produce our first TD.....with the emphasis and could. That huge trough digging into the SE may leave something behind, but right now is producing heavy rains in EC Florida. Stay dry Phil! I'm going to take a nap
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 06:22 PM |
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Re: Possible Developments???
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Hey guys, just thought i'd post my thoughts on the two waves east of the Lesser Antilles. The first one currently near and just east of the islands is not that well organised, and not firing off much convection EXCEPT for the area just to the NNE of Barbados. The latest TWD alluded to this region and says that a mid-level circulation is present, but no surface one at the moment. It looks very compact, and will probably give the islands a few hefty showers and some gusty winds. If the mid-level and weak circulation can make it to the surface then this might have a chance, but it just seems too small and fragile at the moment.
The other wave located around 46W continues to seem well developed. The convection has increased over the past few hours, and again there are suggestions of a circulation at the mid-levels. This wave seems to have a little more 'strength' in it than the one to its west, and i think stands a better chance of becoming something more.
Just my thoughts
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 06:26 PM |
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Re: Possible Developments???
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The wave is looking good. It seems to be heading further north, thereby avoiding a collision with South America. It does look as though it may be entering some very dry air, so it may lose its thunderstorm activity later. Still, this wave has shown it's a tenacious one.
Sounds like the GOM may be a place to watch next week. I hope so, 'cos August is a long time to wait until a first storm.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 07:19 PM |
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"my wave" down there
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I think that wave down there is going to need to have a paternity test done because there are so many men around here trying to clain it as their own. Some one call Maury Quick! lol
Seriously.... the wave, the wave lol (hear tunes of fantasy island, de plane, de plane) is alive and hanging in there. Tenacious is good.. small in this case is good, in a small pocket of positive conditions and just high enough to keep its head above water and just small enough to duck down under the SAL. Maybe...you never know.
Bastardi's Rogue Storm.. Not much of a storm, defiintely defineable as a syatem but not what it was Billed to Be.
Lingering trough over very hot water needs to be watched. Gulf possible, probably more probably than the Bahamas but wouldn't rule off development off East coast of Florida either as a possibility down the line *IF* its still there in a day or so.
Raining here.. nice, off and on and gusty like showers, squally weather more than heavy downpours. Haven't had that in a long time.
Keep watching.. think somehow a system might sneak in under the July 31st deadline to give July a depression at least but not worrying on what August will bring.
Hoping for what I'm hoping (smiling) and have to see how it all plays out.
Have a great sunday.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 08:33 PM |
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EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!!
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Seems like everybody's wave is looking healthy today.
The key is how it hangs when it enters the Eastern Caribbean Sea as there as alot/alot/alot of dry air ahead of it as water vapor imagery shows. Also, lots of strong storms and cells in the northern eastern gulf could spawn something later this week, if it hangs on over that warm water for a few days.
Any comments on everybody's wave at chances of development, we have the july deadline upon us!!
By the way, being an Andrew survivor in '92, I remember quite clearly how quiet it was till mid August when Andrew was born, thinking if no development in the next 2-3 weeks, a precursor to 1992 here in South Fla, Also with a strong cold front /trough coming down in July (very rare) could August and September have the ridge in place strongly off the East Coast that will drive storms west instead of recurving northward, any comments???
Should be a very, very interesting August and September, we will certainly have plenty of activity this fall, possibly to late OCtober and early November.
Peace Out, wanna hear anybody's comments!!!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 09:06 PM |
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Re: EVERYBODY'S WAVE!!!
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"a precursor to 1992 here in South Fla, Also with a strong cold front /trough coming down in July (very rare) could August and September have the ridge in place strongly off the East Coast that will drive storms west instead of recurving northward, any comments???"
I'm thinking that you are right in that after the trough passes and whatever goes on in connection with it the next phase would be the high building in again...just in time for the Atlantic Hurricane Season/Cape Verde Season .. hard to say, makes anyone who lived here then a bit nervous when its so hot, so bright and before I read this I was looking up at the neighbors mango tree trying to remember why the year of Andrew we had two or three strong blooms (didn't this year btw) and how after the fact we all had things in our mind as to how 92 seemed so different.
I suppose until we have another strong cane we will remember Andrew until the next great cane that leaves a mark upon our memory.
so is the way of the world
Funny how somethings in life you can try and convince yourself that nothing happened and others you can't.
Andrew... is unforgettable.
It's quiet.. too quiet.. see it as a precursor to trouble not a lowered quieter season.
My thoughts. Now you got them.
Watching the wave but believe TWC is watching the Gulf. Saw it on mute a little while ago.. let the loop sit a long time.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 09:39 PM |
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IT'S MY WAVE!
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...now I'm taking my ball and going home.
Maybe Joe B should stick to the tropics. Rogue storm my @$$. So far all I've seen is a raindrop or two. Although areas to my west are being dumped upon.
Keep watching MY wave, you guys can have the action in the GOM next week
Peace out,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 09:50 PM |
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Gulf Storm Soon
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Looking at some future forecast models want to have a low pressure established in the central Gulf by mid-week, maybe that'll be our first depression, or even Alex.
Florida panhandle and northwest Florida getting pounded by rain, should be wild in late August-onwards.
GR FLA
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 09:54 PM |
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Re: Gulf Storm Soon *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 09:58 PM |
Re: Gulf Storm Soon
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What does that have to do with Gulf situation/development???
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 10:24 PM |
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Revised Number of Storms?
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I am now inclined to reduce my forecast for the season from an aggressive 15/10/4 to 14/9/4; perhaps more in line (but not quite with) with this wonderful conventional wisdom displayed on this site.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 10:35 PM |
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Re: Revised Number of Storms?
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rmbjoe'54:
That's still a pretty "aggressive" number anyway. One less hurricane.
GR FLA: His post might have something to do with a PM. Give the Coop a pass on this one...he's working on a new model, should be ready soon
As far as reducing #s, most of the more knowledgable posters (that excludes me of course) are saying not to change your #s, that the current paucity of activity has no bearing on future activity. I'm keeping my 14/8/3 come heck or full moon tides.
BTW, how's MY wave looking?
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 11:39 PM |
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Gulf distrubance
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The distrubance should pass by this bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.phtml?station=42040
If you wanna watch it.
Winds coming from the W @ 17.5, Gusts 19k
Press. 29.79 and falling
| DustDuchess |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Gulf Storm Soon
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Quote:
Looking at some future forecast models want to have a low pressure established in the central Gulf by mid-week, maybe that'll be our first depression, or even Alex.
Florida panhandle and northwest Florida getting pounded by rain, should be wild in late August-onwards.
GR FLA
How in the world could anything start up in the Gulf since we have had such an upchurning of water this past weekend?
(remainder of post moved to the Other Weather Events Forum)
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 18 2004 11:51 PM |
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low pressures in gulf
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this was from earlier buoy
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
either way the pressures remain low and winds seem gusty
waving back at you Phil.. use easier words for us simple types to understand please.. have to go look up paucity, you think i dont have better things to do today?
IF..if ....IF something develops in Gulf..tend towards weak named storm and not a TD, IF..sort of an it will go all the way and get a name or not at all.. just a feeling
as for reducing your numbers..telling you stick with your first choice, its usually correct
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 01:38 AM |
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Re: This wave might have a chance.........
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From tonights TWD:
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 900 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
ALONG 46W S OF 16N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO HAVE A
GOOD SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 47W-51W. THE WAVE IS MOVING AROUND
THE S PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC WHICH IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LOW SHEAR. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE
WAVE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES.
Might be our best chance for TD development in awhile, we'll see if it holds together as it approaches the island. What do you think Phil?, will this be TD # 1 or fizzle out like the rest of them?
TG
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 01:43 AM |
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Re: Gulf Storm Soon
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The west wind been strong all day between 15 and 25 Mph. My area St.Pete beach , about 3 inches of rain the past 24 hours, The fast movment of thunder storms would seem to keep an TD from forming, also water temp now drrop to 84 vs 89 degrees from 2 days ago. Not looking for anything to come out of this through.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 01:58 AM |
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It's MY WAVE
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What do you think Phil?, will this be TD # 1 or fizzle out like the rest of them?
I'm sorry, you must have me confused with HanKFranK, Steve, Ed, Jason K (Kelley), Rob or Jason M (Moreland)... (or maybe Scottsvb...)... I've been on this one sorta as a last hope. Can it devlop? Sure. Will it develop? Your guess is as good as mine.
Although I'm learning, I'm good with past stuff and present stuff...as far as future stuff...well, I try to defer that to the experts.
If I had to make an (un)educated guess...YES...it will become TD #1, somewhere between the Antilles and Cuba, eventually becoming TS Alex on Friday. Meanwhile, the GOM gets its act together and we have Bonnie on Saturday. Then two weeks of nothing until the basin bombs out on August 14th. Yielding 4 TSs in a two week period. By September 1, CAT IV Gaston is threatening Steve and CAT V Rickonboat.
BTW, I own a bridge connecting New York City and Brooklyn, and I can let you have it for a song.
Sorry gang. Just getting a tad silly (duh) but this lack of action is driving me stir crazy.
(BTW, if any of those predictions actually pan out, you EACH owe me a beer!)
Cheers,
LI Phil
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:18 AM |
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Re: It's MY WAVE
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Well Phil you might be half way right that it may develop once pass the islands or the 70 mark.The front seems to be keeping the low to the N at check.It does not seem to be creating to much shear in the possible future track.The dry air out front could be a problem maybe.It seems the little wave to the N for the time being is keeping the track wet somewhat.If that little wave can survive maybe the other will.GOM I would not bet on it yet.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: It's MY WAVE
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A beer? If all of that played out you'd get forecaster of the year award
Conditions persist and are still extremely hostile. But, I've seen strange things happen in the tropics that confound the experts. So..you never know.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 06:25 AM |
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Invest for the wave
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The wave is now invest 97L. It's looking OK on satellite imagery this morning, and seems to have held on to its convection. Maybe it does have a chance if it can maintain itself. At least it has lasted since it's always really annoying when something looks hopeful on imagery and then when you check the next morning it has vanished or dissipated.
| JasonM603 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 09:19 AM |
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Morning Discussion on Wave
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FWIW....
http://independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html
Note: Our forecast products are unofficial. Please read our disclaimer.
IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 19 July 2004 - 5:30 AM EDT
A vigorous tropical wave has emerged from the Intertropical Convergence Zone near 55ºW. Shortwave infrared imagery indicates that a low to mid level circulation is present. I might add that the current satellite signature is very impressive. Outflow is fair in all quadrants. Upper level winds are almost non-existant and a strong ridge aloft will likely keep upper level winds favorable for development over the next several days. Convection is not a problem either. Over the past month, several waves have flared as a result of divergent winds aloft. That does not appear to be the case this time around. In fact, much of the thunderstorm activity developing along the wave axis is likely surface induced, a good sign for barotropic (tropical) development.
As for the inhibiting parameters, subsidence ahead of the wave and the wave's quick forward motion could cause some problems. the wave is racing westward at 25MPH, and that will hinder the organization process. Meanwhile, the wave will have to contend with dry air as it approaches the eastern Caribbean Sea. These are the two parameters that raise doubt in terms of development potential.
Interestingly enough, none of the global models are forecasting development at this time. You can debate that this may be one of the reasons why the Tropical Prediction Center has been so hesitant to discuss this feature in detail. An invest has been issued, and that is probably an indication that TPC is also interested in the current signature of the wave. While the available model guidance does not show much in the way of development, they do show hints of the wave continuing to progress west-northwest towards Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. This is in response to the weakening of the subtropical ridge as a strong trough pushes slightly east. This will create a weakness over Hispaniola and Bahamas. This could lead to the wave taking a similar path. The low level steering flow is coming out of the east underneath the ridge, but that may change in the eastern Caribbean over the next 72 hours.
In summary, the tropical wave is fairly organized, with strong ridging aloft that will keep upper level winds condusive for development over the next several days. Sea surface temperatures also support further development. Meanwhile, dry air and a quick low level steering flow will try to keep the wave in check. The wave will need to develop a well-defined central core so that it can sustain itself and further organize. The surface circulation must become easily apparent and convection must continue to persist near the center. Basically, we need persistent convection near the low level circulation. If these things mentioned do not occur, then the potential for development will rapidly decrease. The critical timeframe for development will be the next 24 hours. If the wave doesn't continue to organize over the next 24 hours, then any potential for development will likely be limited at best. Residents in the southern Windward Islands should be prepared for heavy rainfall and strong winds over the next 36 hours. Slow development is possible within the next 24-36 hours.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 11:02 AM |
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Re: Morning Discussion on Wave
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
97L looks fairly impressive with curve clouds moving around what appears is a low to mid level circulation.Let's see if it slows down and organize more in the next 24 hours to then have the first TD of the season.But regardless what happens squally weather for the islands is a good bet.Phil your wave is more healthy than ever so let's see what happens.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 11:29 AM |
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Re: Morning Discussion on Wave
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_97L.INVEST_ssmi_composite_full.html
Hmmmm some dry air is trying to penetrate it so let's watch and see what happens.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 11:53 AM |
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Re: Morning Discussion on Wave
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Really excellent discussion, great analysis, really.
Sort of simply what is different with this wave today is that it has developed a "pocket" and it demands attention for that reason. Started to look like that last night... convection was firing up at dead center. I paid attention. Went to bed and saw that NHC was also.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: Morning Discussion on Wave
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725
WHXX01 KWBC 191250
CHGHUR
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL972004) ON 20040719 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040719 1200 040720 0000 040720 1200 040721 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.3N 55.0W 12.1N 58.7W 13.0N 61.9W 14.1N 64.7W
BAMM 11.3N 55.0W 12.4N 58.9W 13.6N 62.5W 14.9N 65.5W
A98E 11.3N 55.0W 11.7N 59.1W 12.4N 62.7W 13.1N 65.8W
LBAR 11.3N 55.0W 12.1N 59.1W 13.1N 63.1W 14.1N 66.8W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040721 1200 040722 1200 040723 1200 040724 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.8N 67.0W 15.3N 70.9W 16.2N 74.9W 17.6N 79.1W
BAMM 15.8N 67.8W 16.8N 70.8W 18.0N 73.3W 19.7N 75.4W
A98E 13.5N 68.3W 14.8N 72.2W 15.8N 75.4W 17.8N 78.9W
LBAR 14.9N 70.2W 16.3N 75.7W 16.9N 79.1W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 63KTS 74KTS 82KTS
DSHP 52KTS 63KTS 74KTS 63KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.3N LONCUR = 55.0W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 11.0N LONM12 = 50.8W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 44.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 01:51 PM |
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Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks
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Gets your heart beating a little faster, doesn't it?
Very interesting #s. See how it plays out.
Want to remind all of you people ready to give up the ship on a 2004 Tracking Season.
Look at the first storm of season and look at how many systems there were..
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1969/index.html
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:12 PM |
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Re: New CV wave
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Check out the strong wave coming off Africa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
TG
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:20 PM |
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97L
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SSD has started T-numbers for 97L, although it is labeled 90 on their site, it has the same position as our current invest. The first two classifications have been "Too Weak".
Edited to include URL for LI Phil
Here is the link to SSD T-numbers
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: Question
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I had posted this the other day:
"We have been watching the rotation of water vapor for days now. 30N/55W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
You can now see "popcorn" type clouds appearing in the center. Does this depict a ULL making it's way down to the center or surface? "
It has now moved to 29 N 60W with a bit more cloud coverage.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:23 PM |
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Re: Morning Discussion on Wave & 1969-Thanks
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Exactly what I have been thinking all along...1969. I remember it well!
sc
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:32 PM |
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97L
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Not much to say that hasn't been said already...great post Jason! Obviously, timing is the crucial element for 97L...it needs to tighten up a bit and slow down a tad, but it's held together remarkably well thus far.
Jamie, I had the link once but lost it and now I'm too lazy to look...could you post the link for the Dvorak #s.
1969. I'm sure a lot of you remember that one well, especially Frank P. Lets not hope for a year like that ever again.
Will keep an eye on 97L, and I wouldn't keep my eyes too far from the GOM either...it's a friggin' hot tub down there and all it needs is a trigger.
Peace out,
LI Phil
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 02:39 PM |
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Re: Question
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You have to look at Visible. And when you do there is hardly anything there. Very unlikely the a ULL would work its way down. IMHO
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 03:02 PM |
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97L on IR WV Loop
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Check this view out. The little disturbance just ahead of 97L is getting rid of a lot of the dry air...sort of like a fullback clearing the field for his tailback. It's also taking a slightly more northerly track, meaning if this holds together, it could be a Bahamas/USEC worry down the road.
Will see...things are starting to get real interesting (finally).
Cheers,
LI Phil
and Jamiewx, thanx for the link!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 03:04 PM |
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ULL vs THE WAVE
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ULL isn't quite getting wet inside in the center..as said take a look at the visible, in my opinon. Doesn't excite me
OH MY GOSH!!!!!!!!! LOOK AT THAT WAVE THAT IS TWISTING SOUTH OF THE ULL AND RUNNING WEST IN TANDEM WITH IT.. ITS TWISTING, REALLY IS..
wonder what the weathers going to be like in Trindidad on Tuesday
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 03:25 PM |
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Re: Question
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Thank you
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 04:05 PM |
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Re: Question
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all the outlooks say the same, "no signs of tropical cyclone formation"
I am actually a bit surprised the wave east of the Antilles hasnt even been mentioned on the Weather Channel yet
at least they've added "elsewhere" at the end of the "no development expected" line
also, anyone who lives in Florida, the weather has been rather comfortable for being the end of July, it actually is starting to feel like the end of September
would be nice if the tropics would reflect this
Anyway, 97L has a pretty good chance at development, if it doesnt move into South America or dissipate in the Eastern Caribbean (I'm only going to be 21 on the 23rd, but Ive been tracking since 1993 and Ive seen both scenarios happen with waves as well as classified systems)
the system off of Africa also looks very organized, but Im going to wait and see since so many that far east have dissipated a few days later, but it does seem to have a strong flow of low-level westerlies to the south of the wave (same setup as with Cindy in 1999 a few days before exiting Africa and immediately becoming a TD)
Wait and see, we could have something, but after all of the other "maybe's" that have dissipated, I dont want to get my hopes up
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 04:09 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Most recent satellite pics display what the NHC described as a vigorous wave...no LLC, and there seems to be some west to sw shear ahead of it which will impede the development. But it has the best potential of any so far.
The GOM situation is a trough with upper features rotating along at rapid rates...no chance to develop unless it all just stalls and by that I mean the upper features slow to a crawl...surface pressures are about 29.88 now on the westcoast.
These are my most humble of opinions. EDS.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: 97L
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I dunno, wave looks like its developing a decent circulation pattern. We'll see. Pretty good for a wave that many gave up on
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 04:57 PM |
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Re: 97L
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I must agree with the last post in that there seems to be a circulation even to my eyes. Ive gotta think that this think has a pretty strong chance either now or when it enters the caribbean, in the area claudette formed in.
Also, has anyone seen the new wave off africa? Its convection increased when it hit water!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 05:00 PM |
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97L-Models
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Here's some modeling for 97L. Most keep the wave fairly far south, although three trend it more northerly.
models 1
models 2
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 05:08 PM |
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Re: 97L
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The tropical wave 200 miles E of the L,W inslands continues to move w near 22mph. There is no w wind evident in ship, buoy, or satillite obs. Models, drier air and shear ahead of the system will not make the wave favorible for development.
The eastern U.S trough should begin to lift out some over the next 2 days but be reinforced by friday into this weekend. Lower pressures in the Sw Gulf thru the NW Carribean could once again bring plenty of moisture up into florida emerging with this TW or most likley the 1 behind it. Some possible deveolpment might take place in this area early-mid next week. scottsvb
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jul 19 2004 05:47 PM |
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Re: 97L
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take a look at this
and this off of Africa
when it looks that organized on IR, you know its strong
could be a TD in a day or so