MikeC (Admin) Thu Jul 22 2004 09:13 PM	Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	The last system (disturbance given called 97L) failed to get organized, although it gave it a few tries on the way, leaving us with sill no depressions for the season yet. And right now there doesn't look to be any immediate threats for any system, which means a stormless July is becoming a very real possibility. Which, I must state, has no bearing on how active the rest of the seasn will be. When will Alex form now? Time for another round of guesses. General Links NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos) Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system. Follow worldwide SST evolution here: Global SST Animation NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at: North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor Some forecast models: NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF) AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET Multi-model plots from WREL Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut, Even more on the links page.
LI Phil (User) Thu Jul 22 2004 09:35 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	Thanks for the new forum Mike. "Tropics Quiet for the Moment" is probably as good a title as any. There were some good posts on the last page of the last thread from Steve and Rob Mann about how the basin is, climatologically speaking, actually ahead of schedule and how ripe the tropics should be, come the beginning of peak season. Looking forward to it after such a slow start, one which really had only one or two close calls. Unfortunately for us impatient trackers, it looks like we will enter the month of August without so much as a TD . However, if the much anticipated and expected upturn in activity occurs, this could still be a memorable season. Sticking with my December numbers of 14/8/3.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Thu Jul 22 2004 09:39 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	12z models (I'm not inclined to seek out the 18z's at the moment) still show a ripple from the former 97L. All major globals track it to either LA or TX. So someone's gonna get some rain out of it even if it's only a drop or two. The next thing to watch is the trof east of Florida. As noted by a couple of NOAA Discussions as well as one or two of those models, a cut off low may form and actually retrograde back over the Gulf states. Is this post a reach? Sure. But that's all we got. Steve
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Thu Jul 22 2004 09:52 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	How close to 1992 is this quiet period? I am thinking how Andrew was the first and only hurricane of the season and how very destructive that was. Are the conditions similar at this time?
HanKFranK (User) Thu Jul 22 2004 10:11 PM	nothing doing
	situation normal. 97L isn't really a trackable entity right now.. just an un-exciting wave today. the interesting looking wave near 45w isn't moving very quickly. has spotty convection and an interesting itcz signature, but no real model support. weak low exposed west of the hung decaying trough off the southeast, noted earlier by several. expected something like that.. until it associates with convection it shouldn't do a whole lot. whereas i was talking 2 of 3 that we'd have a storm by friday afternoon, today i see no chance of a system prior to sunday. dust duchess i know '92 was an interesting year and all, but i can name several like it with similar overall conditions that had no cat 5 hurricane hitting florida. it was a chance event, really.. and not useful to compare to this year. SOI has been down for several days now.. i'm getting fairly sure that weak el nino conditions will be upon us late in the season. it's going to take a prolonged neutral period or positive spike to bust the trend from here. my numbers are stuck low.. maybe i'll get closer after all. HF 2212z22july
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Thu Jul 22 2004 10:11 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	Agree with Phil it is a good title for this new thread.But now a new area to watch has surfaced as the NHC points out: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 222116 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 530 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY DOES NOT HAVE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. I think that Hank Frank talked briefly about something to watch in the subtropical atlantic so let's see what happens. The real season starts in august and because there has been no storms yet it doesn't mean anything that may suggest a below average season as in past posts Rob and Jason haved broughted the stats of past seasons that started late and finshed active. My new guess for Alex to form is august 11 my birthday date.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 12:56 AM	98L invest for area NE of Bahamas
	http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Let's see if this low pressure turns into a pure tropical system.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Fri Jul 23 2004 01:03 AM	Re: 98L invest for area NE of Bahamas
	very interesting.. funny cause the old wave always seemed like a girl storm not a male storm.. and always thought alex would form east of florida somewhere.. still think conditions aren't perfect there but that area tends to do well with imperfect strange conditions tropical or not tho? interesting to see
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 01:03 AM	Re: nothing doing
	>>> situation normal Ah, HF, 2/5ths of the acronym "SNAFU". If anyone wants to know that the last three letters stand for, PM me, it's not ready for prime time, if you catch my drift. I'm not real hopeful for any development out of anything currently out there...as Steve said in the last thread, had 97L only made it to the GOM in better shape, it would have been interesting. Still think the number one New Orleans Saints fan will see some weather from this. Hope you get some good gusts and squalls big guy. I see some of the models are developing something to develop off of the East Coast in a day or so. Whether it could be called tropical is apparently up for debate. I, for one, don't believe it to be so. Whether the forecasted trof picks it up and/or the Bermuda High keep it along the coast is also debatable. Either way, showers and t-storms are forecasted for my weekend, mostly from the cold front dropping south from Canada which is causing all the mischief in the heartland. Situation Normal...all blankety blank. Cheers, LI Phil
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Fri Jul 23 2004 01:21 AM	12/47 give or take a cord
	There is a twist out there in the wave thats traveling west bound. It's small but you can make it out on a few loops. Just wanted to mention it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html lacks moisture.. its very dry out there.. maybe as it gets closer to the islands watching the other thing ..not there yet lois
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Fri Jul 23 2004 03:54 AM	Couplea off night tidbits...
	Cyclone Phase Evolution site... The models have different ideas about the South Atlantic Coast. Anyone got the updated link to the maximum storm potential site? It used to be linked from ATWC, but it's not anymore. Oh yeah, there's still some wannabe convection in the Central Caribbean. Steve
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Fri Jul 23 2004 05:16 AM	Re: Couplea off night tidbits...
	Hey Steve, Im not sure if this is the site your looking for or not, but here it is.... Maximum Storm Potential Have a nice TGIF.
James88 (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 08:39 AM	Re: Couplea off night tidbits...
	98L certainly looks more tropical than it did yesterday. Dry air is not an inhibiting factor with this system, and the shear around it should start to decrease in the next 24 hours. As with 97L, the key is persistence - it needs to maintain its convection. Let's see what it does today.
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Fri Jul 23 2004 12:12 PM	98L
	98L certainly looks like its still there this morning. Although not a tropical cyclone, it may take the sub-tropical route if it can persist. A small area of convection is near the centre, which hasnt moved much in the past 12 hours. However, of note is the large area of deep convection further south, nearer the Turks and Caicos Islands. Has any one else noticed this and what are your thoughts on both these areas in general? Regards
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 12:46 PM	Re: 98L
	Any ideas of the steering currents in 24 hours?
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 01:42 PM	Re: east Atlantic wave
	The wave that recently came off of Africa, south of CV is actually showing INCREASING convection, hasn't fizzled yet like the others. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html TG
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:14 PM	Re: east Atlantic wave
	Thanks for the link Droop. ----------------------------------------------- Tropics Guy, I noticed the same thing today scanning Africa and its west coast on the Goes 12. That's the best wave so far. If you watch the frames, you can see the low pressure support (usually north of an emerging wave) actually combined with the wave to juice it up. As for 98L, it's a watch and see game. It's between a trof to its west and building high pressure to its east. It's either going to get trapped or cut out away NE. It's too tough to tell yet. The southern remains of 97L are in the west Central Caribbean, the northern energy gave 98L its kick start. That reminds me of a storm 2 or 3 years ago that bred a bunch of other stuff on its way (can't remember what that one was). Some convection moving into the BOC from the Mexican coast as well. Maybe that will supply some energy around the back side of the ULL now diving into Mexico. Bastardi (out of town) said he's going to try to do a post keying in on the tropics later today. If so, I'll try to find the highlights. For now, he's just mentioning that the youth of the season is the major limitation. His thoughts on 98L are that it'll probably drift north for a couple of days as the trof lifts out, the ridge backs into it and the air warms over it. He did reference that big & unseasonbly cool high pressures over the belly of the U.S. usually have a buildup of warmth close by in the subtropics (moreso in August and September than July). He's not even writing off 97L as the wave in the Gulf will have to be watched next week. Since the northern end's intersection with the pre-existing trof set off 98L, apparently anything in or near the Gulf could be similarly set off. Steve
ticka1 (Weather Hobbyist) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:14 PM	Re: east Atlantic wave
	Thanks for the link. Looks impressive, wonder if it can hold its own as it tracks across the Atlantic, will be interesting to watch.
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:40 PM	Re: east Atlantic wave
	Well the east Atlantic Wave certainly looks healthy today. Both IR and Visible imagery shows the system is quite well developed, with some possible banding associated with the wave. It looks to have drawn in the low pressure area that was previously north of the main body of convection. Woudnt be surprised to see an invest go up on this later today, and also to see if it is mentioned in the next TWO from NHC. As for 98L, well it doesnt seem to want to go anywhere or do anything at present. The convective activity remain east of the low level circulation, and there doesnt appear to be much of an effort in it occurring any nearer the centre. All in all both systems need watching, but that wave certainly looks impressive Regards
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:50 PM	touching all the bases here
	Rich.. I've noticed that the area of deepest convection is not over the area that i think is I think the center of the subject area. The stronger moisture seems displaced. Norcross pointed to an area that I think was to the East of what you would see on the sats and get all excited. So.. either its misplaced moisture or multiple vortixes such as we see often in this area in quasi-tropical disturbances. There is the barest signature of a possible circulation center from the old wave down in the Caribbean. The stuffing really got kicked out of that wave from that blow torch of air that came down from the north and sucked some of the moisture up into the Bahamas. Looks a bit like the Scarecrow with haye all over him lying there on the ground trying to put himself back together. Luckily the Scarecrow had Dorothy and this wave has nothing but bits and pieces of what it used to be. Wanna be is I suppose better than Has Been. Wave off Africa is beautiful and may I add has intensified as opposed to the way the last few lost all signs of life and convection after they hit the water. Definitely something to watch. But..dry air out there.. all over and African Dust. Still is a sort of vague twist in a dry wave out around 50, very dry. Steve..good round up you wrote there. Where is Bastardi anyway? Imagine he said something, he writes more words than I can on any given day. Take care all.. am around but either way.. have a great weekend.
Ed in Va (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:56 PM	Re: touching all the bases here
	A good NWS source for Atlantic speculation is the Wimington NC office, which usually gives a tropical update in the marine section of its mid-morning report. The one for today talks about the Bahamas system: http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/nc/discussion.html
Ed in Va (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 02:58 PM	Re: touching all the bases here
	Fist post and I screwed in up...it's the Newport/Morehead City office, not the Wilimington one.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 03:08 PM	Welcome aboard Ed
	Welcome Ed. You guys pretty much covered all the bases already, so I'll try not to reiterate too much. Wave off Africa. Pretty impressive so far. Looks to be a tad south of some of the others, but not worried about longitude/lattitude for now. Let's see how it fares on it's (hopefully) trek across the pond. 98L. Interesting how it formed from the split of 97L, though fairly rare, not an unique situation. Steve remarked a wave did this a couple of years ago. So far, doesn't look like it will develop, and as Rich said, it's just kind of hanging out right now. Remnant low from 97L in the GOM. JB thinks this will be a playa in the western gulf this weekend. Probably needs to be watched. Steve, you might get yer gusty t-storms from this. JB's afternoon update on the tropics...and his whereabouts...unless I missed it, he didn't mention where he is, but this is his last business trip of the summer, so we'll be in full video and post mode for the heart of the season. He didn't promise a post this afternoon, only a "will try," especially if the system north of hispaniola gets going. Knowing him, though, he'll be back. Cheers all, LI Phil
summercyclone (Weather Hobbyist) Fri Jul 23 2004 03:28 PM	Re: Call the ball#2
	This is the area I pointed out on the other thread yesterday afternoon, that got written off immediately (by some): "Vortex, upper left of pic..... http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes" sc looks like the energy went north.... Here's what they say today: 000 ABNT20 KNHC 231504 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NORTHWARD TO ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TWO WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE CLOUD BAND. THE TWO LOW PRESSURE AREAS MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE NEAR THE NORTH END OF THE CLOUD BAND WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE WEATHER SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON ...IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECASTER STEWART Also: take a look off Africa, good flare today....
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jul 23 2004 04:30 PM	Re: Call the ball#2---what DOES that MEAN Phil?
	okay.. trying not to watch too much..hope if i don't it will sneak up and bite me just want to say.. africa looks beautiful this time of year.. and if it was any higher the dry, desert dust would eat it up and spit it out like yesterdays bubble gum nope..stay low, sail fast, swirl pretty and hang in there girl let that mess off of Florida become storm 1.. minimal storm and we can all get it over with and move on to the exciting stuff sigh..............not one comment on anything else..nope, nada keep watching sats.. best is off of africa, if that doesnt get your heart pumping you are all DOA and don't even know it
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Fri Jul 23 2004 04:33 PM	Re: touching all the bases here
	Just looking at the latest visible loops from GHCC on 98L, and i noticed two things: 1) The low-level circulation appears to have started a slow motion to the northwest in the past couple of hours. 2) The convection southeast of the circulation appears to be slowly catching up with the circulation. If this happens then perhaps it will develop further.
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 04:54 PM	Re: touching all the bases here
	I see a slow drift to the N-NE.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 05:03 PM	Recon
	Plan of the Day -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 000 NOUS42 KNHC 231430 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL. 1030 AM EDT FRI 23 JULY 2004 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUL 2004 TCPOD NUMBER.....04-055 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA...EAST OF THE BAHAMAS A. 24/1800Z B. AFXXX 02BBA INVEST C. 21/1400Z D. 30.0N 70.0W E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE FOLLOW ON TASKING AT 25/1800Z NEAR 35.0N 70.0W. recon graphic
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jul 23 2004 05:30 PM	Re: Recon
	weak low pressure east-northeast of the bahamas will slowly get better organized as it moves N with the deepening trough over the eastern U.S. this weekend. It may become a depresion but more like extratropical. This could give showers to S.E. New England. 97L alot are tracking should make it near the Yucitan by Sunday and could regain its T.S. activity with more support. Currently it looks as though it might miss the trough due to its position, no organized low predicted and the trough isnt going to be as strong as first forcasted. Still could become a T.D. Sunday or Monday in the western gulf. System off africa will become less organized as it moves west/. scottsvb
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:11 PM	Re: east Atlantic wave
	From the 2:05 TWD: TROPICAL WAVE 50 NM EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THIS IS A WELL-DEFINED WAVE WITH SATELLITE PICTURES AND QUIKSCAT SHOWING A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PERHAPS A WEAK LOW IN THE AREA OF 14N20W. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN W AFRICA AND 26W. Maybe this one will be for real, we'll see if it develops. TG
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:21 PM	East Atlantic wave
	We might as well plunge into the Cape Verde season..what a year!
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:22 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	From the 2:05 twd SUBTROPICAL ATLC... ATYPICAL PATTERN CONTINUES THE W ATLC WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROUGHLY HALFWAY IN BETWEEN THE SE UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA EXTENDING SWD OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND W CUBA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH IS NOW SPLITTING N OF 30N WITH A FORMING UPPER LOW APPROXIMATELY 250 NM E OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING STRONG DIVERGENCE TO THE E AND SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 65W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NEARLY COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT THERE IS LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL LIKELY SPREAD WESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND PORTIONS OF FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:32 PM	"97L"
	I posed this question yesterday but no one seemed able to answer it. If the remnant low from what was once 97L does make it to TD strength, would NRL still refer to it as 97L, or would it receive a new invest with a different #? >>> 97L alot are tracking should make it near the Yucitan by Sunday and could regain its T.S. activity with more support. And scottsvb, do you think this could really attain TS strength (I know the GOM is probably very conducive for development). Are the models showing this development?
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:38 PM	Re: "97L"
	Phil: if it is the same wave then they would keep 97L but I don't think anyting going to happen with this one, 98L more likely to be a TD if picks up the wave reaching the West Indes.
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 06:42 PM	Re: "97L"
	Thanks Old Sailor! scottsvb seems to think it will develop if it gets some support.
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 08:23 PM	98L
	I see circulation; and banding around it; I see it moving ever so slowly to the NW. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Fri Jul 23 2004 08:49 PM	Re: 98L
	Anybody that subscribes to Accuweather, Has JB made a post yet today? Im kind of curious about what he has to say. Looking at 98L, still a large swirl with it, but not much convection going on around it, looks like alot of high clouds. I also think its moving NW a bit. IMO I dont think it will develop much past a TD, if it even makes that status. The swirl should drift west into the SE and cause plenty of showers and storms this weekend. As for the old 97L, Im in the same boat with Steve, Its still a wave, and has alittle energy associated with it still so its gotta be watched, especially if it makes it into the Gulf soon. Everything in place for a storm to form in there, just needs a trigger of some sort. Whether it comes or not remains to be seen. Everyone have a great Friday. Later
troy2 (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:00 PM	Re: 98L
	Looking at the GOES closeup it almost seems like there is a few centers of circulation. It's hard to tell if any are at the surface. While stareing closely at the close up lops form a few different cords. Little "vortexes" pop up thenseen to vanish and appear in different directions. No method to the movement of the "vortexes". WV loop (wide shot/GOES version) looks as if the center is above the Turks/Caicos or in that vicinity. 23.5 74 ish. Infared seem sto back that up showing T Storms building around what appears to be the center. Will see if teh High out around 38N and 50 W and teh Lows just inland in NC will funnle it up and out or will the H build in and move far enough W (as hinted on the 14:52UTC surface map) to act as a blocking High or send the developing Low west. Water temps are fairly warm in that area. I am terrible at reading winid shear so I wont even guess at that. Either way it may give us something to pull our hair about. Troy
Rabbit (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:12 PM	Re: 98L
	I turn off the TV for a few days and something pops up seemingly out of nowhere this has a good upper air anticyclone, has a strong midlevel circulation, is in a climatologically favorable area, and is not moving very quickly I'll say this has a fair shot at development, although several other things have this year as well, so like the last system, I'll just wait and see keeping forecast the same, but will do some major updating if we do not see a depression form in the Atlantic by August 15
LI Phil (User) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:15 PM	JB
	JB never made that second post... Bugs...congratulations on your call on 97L. And oh yeah, Happy Birthday! Ah, to be 21 again...
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:29 PM	Re: JB
	Not so fast on 97L. It's still in the W Caribbean and is flaring up a bit. Until it's in the EPAC or Mexico, it's still a wave who's final chapter is yet to be written. It is currently being enhanced by outside forces, but it's still there. Steve
Rabbit (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:37 PM	98L: my forecast
	I was hoping to be wrong with 97L. As for 98L, I cant say I am that sure what it will do. The only other system that had that good of a chance that was in this area this month was near Bermuda, and this does not seem to have much in common with that one. This seems to have a better chance than the wave did as this isnt undergoing any evident shear. THe reason I am uncertain of what to say is because I have had the weather channel off since my post a few days ago. I checked the floater a few hours ago to see why Celia was still a storm, and SURPRISE! New invest system near Bahamas. I havent tracked this one long, so for the next day or two, I'll leave the forecasting up to you all. quick note on 97L: the remnant circulation seems to be at 15N84W and is going to move into Nicaragua within the next day. (question: is there a reason why the invest systems start at 91, and second, i remember the earlier invests: 91L in May, 92L in the gulf, 95L off of Africa a while back, 96L was the Bermuda system, 97L was the wave, and this is 98L. so does anyone know when 93L and 94L were? were there even a 93L or 94L at all?)
troy2 (Storm Tracker) Fri Jul 23 2004 09:59 PM	Circulations
	the local ABC guy mentioned that the low just north of the Turks is an upper low and will be moving west, allowing the environment to become more favorable for the other low to develop. TWO mentioned : AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. getting kind of fun
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Fri Jul 23 2004 10:08 PM	Re: "97L"
	Phil- my guess is since 97L totally evaporated, it's be a new imvest #; the invest #s are not like the naming convention, they are 'by event', as i understand it. A system from the same wave, since the old one tanked, would be a new #. sc
Rabbit (Weather Master) Fri Jul 23 2004 10:11 PM	Re: "97L"
	something else i've been wondering--are all upgrades or classifications preceded at some point by an invest number?
Robert (Weather Analyst) Fri Jul 23 2004 11:41 PM	Sup Troy
	Whats up troy this system is looking good in terms of surf i hope. This is the best chance of surf for the next month i am praying to god even though i hate the guy we get some surf from it. Models show a 4 ft swell heading past the carolinos on monday into monday night then backing off but past knowledge of the models usually mean we get swell from a signature like that and this time of year indicates it will become a storm. bouys are n and Ne backing NNw ocassionally indicative of a llcc at the surface. winds are supposed to be south early next weak but if this cranks it will be south west. Keep those fingers crossed.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 12:31 AM	Re: "97L"
	Phil: What I forgot to mention is that if reforms in EPAC then would be a new invest, and looking at IR seems more likely to cause problems in EPAC .
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:01 AM	Re: "97L"
	EPAC? I'm not so sure. Western Gulf (TX/Mex)? Good possibility. Nice Bastardi notes this afternoon for anyone with Accupro rights or 30 day free access. TNRCC IR - EPAC Bound?
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:21 AM	Re: "97L"
	It's, it's ...BACK!? Obviously, part of the resurgence is due to ventilation (divergence) related to the upper low over Fl...but, not ALL of the new convection is due to that....can't keep a good wave down?? Sure looks like it is flaring tonight---who knows what tomorrow will bring.... sc
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:42 AM	Re: "97L"
	Steve: I was just reading the NHC discussion, hate to cut and paste but take a look at it. TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W/86W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A BETTER SIGNATURE IN THE EPAC AND POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE ITCZ ACCOUNTING FOR THE MORNING RAOBS FROM COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE OVER W NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE WAVE. Dave
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:44 AM	Re: "97L"
	I will remind you of 97L and its big fat grin
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:16 AM	Re: "97L"
	Yep, 97L is up to it's old tricks again., seems to be coming back to life, remants of it are firing back up SW of Jamaica. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/IR4/20.jpg TG
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:24 AM	Re: "97L"
	That's the other item. I think that might/could/kinda be associated with either the remnants of the split trof/ULL that backed off ahead of it or maybe some of the energy from 97L's defunct LLC (but that would most likely have traveled further west of Costa Rica by now I think). What I'm more referring to in the TNRCC high-res IR photo is the energy coming in around 15N/80W. It is the part of the wave axis of 97L. (As discussed, when it hit the dry zone, a piece of energy shearned north into the surface trof, but the wave remained sans its invest). In Bastardi's world, It was never supposed to do anything until it got to the Gulf anyway. And he had it slowing down from a week ago. Phil (and of course the rest of us) were on that wave for at least a week. There was a reason. It was packing energy for whatever was in the way. I think it was Bobbi who called it a girl storm (fickle) and mentioned the pretty strong nightly/diurnal pulses. So 97L seeded 98L and perhaps still has something in store for itself. I always thought it was going to develop but just like early storms will sometimes get ya', I was somewhat tricked by its old MLC that spawned all of that convection into/with the pattern. Speaking of patterns, one more prop for Bastardi. He was talking 'watch SW Atlantic AND WC/GOM' from 7 or 8 days out. As always, he is the master of pattern recognition. Whether anything develops or not, Bobbi-watching IR colors are in both places. For my money, the Western Atlantic Basin looks the best it has so far this year. What's interesting (to me) is the continued evolution of the 2004 season. It appears to be one where we have a real shot at a couple of long tracked Cape Verde storms with very real ([tm]) implications for North America and the Islands. We'll have to watch the continued evolution of the Altantic water temperature profiles to see how ridging will be supported. So far, the evolution has been outstanding (if you want to see long tracked storms, which for better or worse we all do. Don't lie ). Finally. Props out for whichever Cornelii works for Google. I don't even have to search the site anymore to find something. Almost anything tropical I search for has a CFHC link in the top 3 results. Heh. This post brought to you buy buzz. Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:43 AM	Re: "98L
	has anyone noticed that the nrl site changed the position of the low to now 26.2 n 70.1 west 1010 mb 25 kts winds, and looks like slow convection firing all around, thats a big difference from this afternoon of 29.3 n 73.0 w and 20 kts?
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:50 AM	Re: "98L
	I was going to check on NRL in a bit. Thanks for the heads up. For anyone who reads this - go to the Goes 8 Water Vapor and loop it 30 times. 1) Start the loop at 11:15UTC and watch one of my boys cross 60 West @ 35 North. LMAO (don't edit me Ed). /Fun with weather patterns 2) I could be wrong, but it looks like the northern axis of 97L is emerging across (disassociating with?) upper level energy in the Bahamas. Watch the bright white clouds enhance as they move through the area (in the above loop). Steve
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 05:23 AM	Re: "98L
	98L i suppose is the answer to that system in the subtropics i've been thinking on for some time. the trough is finally splitting, and when the upper air patterns reorient there should be a decent environment for further development, though it is far from a certainty. if something were to develop north carolina would be the most likely of targets. no news there.. the outer banks are ALWAYS the most likely target on the east coast. 97L's ghost is hacking and coughing, perhaps trying to rise from the dead. i'm not too optimistic, but anything bastardi is pondering as possible i take as credible interest. east atlanitc not ready to give us anything now, though a couple o' trouble areas could eventually do something.. highly unlikely however. one week to go in july, and mjo going positive.. and in spite of that the basin keeps trying to do something. nothing out there right now promising to be storm #1... but there's still time this month. HF 0523z24july
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 09:04 AM	Re: "98L
	Well, 98L isn't looking too great this morning, while what was 97L is looking quite good. The wave over by the Cape Verdes still looks fairly strong as well. It's only a matter of time...
Storm Cooper (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:24 PM	Re: "98L
	I am inclined to think that 97L will be the first real game in town... interested to see how well it can hold on today.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:52 PM	Re: "98L
	You may be right Coop. I'm also watching the wave that is northeast of Puerto Rico - looks like it could have some potential, but I haven't had time to really check out the environment yet. Cheers, ED
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 01:55 PM	Re: "98L
	ED about that wave NE of PR the enviroment is not favorable because it is interacting with an upper low to it's north and divergence is high there and that is why I dont see at this time development in that area.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:17 PM	Re: "98L
	The wave moving north of the islands just adds potential to whatever might be there for 98L. I don't see it as an independent entity for long. Steve
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:24 PM	Re: "98L
	Actually it was the upper low that sparked my interest in the wave. The low is lifting slowly to the north and building a narrow ridge to its southwest - between the low and the wave. 98L has really elongated east-west as the retrograde process seems to have started. I'll take another look at it this afternoon. Cheers, ED
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:29 PM	Re: "98L
	what he said. the low level swirl from 98L is clear of the upper support/surface convergence line near 70w, drifting west and away. a different vorticity max will have to take over for the disturbed area to present a real threat. there should be extra convergence as the wave to the east approaches next 72hrs. caribbean remnants of 97L progressing very slowly. retrograding upper low to the north will enhance convection for a while, then possibly shear it, then enhance it again. two says no pressure falls so nothing happening soon. that's the gist of today. areas of interest, but probably no development before monday. HF 1429z24july
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Sat Jul 24 2004 02:56 PM	Re: "98L
	98L will be late, but it will keep an important date. Meterologists will have a cow But 98L will raise eyebrows!
Storm Cooper (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 03:02 PM	Re: "98L
	Well... no big suprise but the recon has been called off for today
LI Phil (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 03:19 PM	IWIC Forecast
	Well, since Rob or Jason hasn't posted it here yet, I will...the Saturday IWIC forecast: The remnants if Invest 97L flared during the overnight hours. Convection has since diminished over the past 6 hours. Development is not expected. However, the wave will be monitored once it enters the Gulf of Mexico, as a trough will likely absorb most of the moisture and increase rain chances along the Gulf Coast. The disturbed area of weather near the Bahamas hasn't change much in terms of organization over the last 24 hours. The upper level low causing a lot of upper shear will push west into Florida, allowing for upper level winds to become a bit more condusive for tropical development. A recon will investigate this area later today, if neccessary. Slow development is possible over the next several days. Latest GFS runs are now that first indication that the Cape Verde season could begin during the last couple days of July or the first week of August. The operational GFS has had a strong wave progged to exit the coast of Africa for the past several runs. But the latest runs shows a couple waves that are even stronger. All seasonal parameters still suggest that we are in store for a very active 2004 hurricane season.
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 03:49 PM	Re: IWIC Forecast
	It sure would be interesting if Alex turned out to be a long-tracking CV storm. As Steve pointed out earlier, the East Atlantic is not quite ready to give us anything yet, but if the IWIC Forecast is right, we could be within a week to a fortnight away.
LI Phil (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 04:00 PM	98L is DOA
	I'm not sure why they still even have an invest on 98L. Nothing doing there. Remnants of 97L still causing some mischief...check out the convective burst over the Caymans. Not gonna seek it out now, but there's a webcam at the 'turtle farm' on Grand Cayman, might provide a bit of a show if anyone's interested. Be nice to see the CV season start a tad early...not much else going on, although the basin is definitely starting to show signs of life. It won't be long now. Since everyone but Ed has blown their "first guess" at a first storm, maybe we should all start making second (or third or fourth in some cases) guesses? Actually I'm hoping Ed's guess (7/31) is right...one week from today. That'd give us a July storm and kick off the season just before the real show begins. Cheers, LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 04:30 PM	Re: "97L"
	Hey phil, sorry I missed your question yesterday on 97L becoming a TS in the Gulf. I was actually saying it should regain T.S. as in Thunderstorms, then i went on to say it could become then a TD by Monday. Still could and eventually a TS? Well who knows, right now, Ill just wait to see where its at if it becomes a TD at all. Scottsvb
James88 (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 04:31 PM	Re: 98L is DOA
	Another chance at a guess? Good idea Phil. There's something for the storm forum. With all of this activity tipped to begin soon, I can't help but wonder whether we'll see something like the Parade of Storms in '95 or the Atlantic quartet in '98. Whatever happens, things will obviously get pretty hectic around peak of season.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 04:41 PM	Re: Tropics Quiet for the Moment
	There seems to be at some level a circulation forming southeast of Grand Cayman.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 04:55 PM	grand cayman circ?
	I looked at the visibles, and i failed to see an embryonic circulation near Grand Cayman. That said, there could be one forming that is hard to see now.
joepub1 (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 05:24 PM	The Little Triangle
	Interesting to see that we at least have some clouds in areas that could produce our first TD/TS of the season. That's a welcome change from the empty sat pictures that was giving us storm trackers a bad name!! Old 97L still has a faint pulse, and of the three corners of the triangle, is most likely in the best spot. Moving at a snails pace compared to what it was doing earlier in it's life, we need to see some pressure drops to get it going again. Worth watching just because it's that time of the year. Not too impressed with 98L, but east of the Bahama's is starting to look interesting if that's part of the same system. A little further south than I expected, and just a slight twist going on there. Area E/NE of PR caught me by surprise. That wave was as dry as they come not more than a day or two ago, I swear. Look at it this morning, and there it is again.....I like it's position as well, but I'll take the post that says chances are not that good as a reasonable statement, for I'm not all that good at seeing all the factors that play into storm develpment. The wave noted off of Africa seems SA bound to me...way south. But all in all, signs that we are going to get a whole heck of alot of activity all at once sometime soon.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 05:33 PM	my thoughts
	old 97L did flare back up over night and is looking better on satellite imagery than it has for a few days, but upper winds appear unfavorable and the wave axis is to the west of the convecion and any associated low is just north of Honduras. If it forms at all it will be in about 3-4 days in the Eastern Pacific development chances: 20% for Atlantic basin, more than likely in the gulf 98L has fallen apart since last night (this scenario seems familiar) and no longer has outflow or a mid-level low. It also seems to be in the process of being absorbed by the trough. development chances: 30% if it can manage to stay separated from the trough The system near Puerto Rico is being heavily sheared and has almost no chance of developing. development chances: 10% the wave at about 50 west has developed convection since last night, but appears to be flattening out. development chances: 20% if its not completely elongated first wave near the Cape Verde ISlands is also falling apart and looks like it is being sheared and influenced by the larger extratropical system well to the north. Note that the center is well northeast of the convection development chances: 40% in a few days, if it holds together the system over Africa looks very strong before comming off (also sounds familiar), but like most of the predecessors, may just become a low cloud swirl. development chances: 60-70% if it can manage to hold together (hopefully it will) have I missed anything?
ticka1 (Weather Hobbyist) Sat Jul 24 2004 05:48 PM	Re: my thoughts
	Great posts folks on the activity out in the tropics. Can I ask a question - correct me if I'm wrong okay - but isn't there a high pressure sitting over the Gulf of Mexico that would inhibit any tropical formation if the wave near the Cayman Islands tracks towards the GOM? Ticka1
Kevin (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 06:24 PM	Whoa GFS
	We must be getting close to that "time" of the tropical season again. Oh, that's right, we are. Check the GFS MSLP run out to 384 (this is a long way out, so take this fwiw): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwpara/analysis/carib/gfs/06/index_slp_l_loop.shtml By the end of this month, this model shows one strong tropical wave developing off of the African Coast and moving west to west-northwest while strengthening. A few days later, it shows another strong tropical wave moving west and strengthening in the wake of the first wave. This seems like a realistic solution given we're nearing the time when tropical activity tends to pick up. The MJO still warrants mention. Believe or not to believe, the Atlantic has been in the negative (positive for formation) MJO for a good portion of this month. Around the time that the GFS starts to pick the pace up, we may be seeing the negative MJO depart from the Atlantic, possibly tempering the activity that may possibly occur. The point is though, we're getting towards the time of the hurricane season when things usually start to pick up.
DustDuchess (Weather Watcher) Sat Jul 24 2004 06:24 PM	Re: my thoughts
	I think the surface low has to get underneath that high pressure in order to be able to form, unless I am misquoting the facts.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sat Jul 24 2004 06:49 PM	Re: my thoughts
	Tropical cyclones need an upper level anticyclone (high pressure) aloft to aid in ventilation. So yes, a high or ridge near a storm or wave or whatever it is usually will create a favorable enviroment for furth development.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Sat Jul 24 2004 06:59 PM	Re: my thoughts
	Sorry, that last anon post was me, for some reason I couldnt get logged in.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Sat Jul 24 2004 07:55 PM	Re: my thoughts
	Has JB said anything about the blob in the NW Carib.? It looks fairly intresting as its held its own convection wise, since at least last night. Looking at sattelite loops, looks like maybe there is a mid level circulation around the area near the caymans, maybe Im just seeing things, but anyone have any input on this? is this convection being caused by an outside source? ull or difluence? Im gonna go fishing, be back in a few hours and see how it looks.
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Sat Jul 24 2004 08:00 PM	Re: Whoa GFS
	Interesting scenario there with that loop but it would be more credible if other global models join the GFS in that same scenario.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 08:09 PM	the models
	AVN 6-day the aviation model was the only forecast model to forecast Debby's turn southward in 2000, and overall seems to be the most reliable. Look closely off the coast of Africa nothing has been forecast like that outside of the Pacific Ed's 7-31 forecast may be correct if this forecast holds true
Rabbit (Weather Master) Sat Jul 24 2004 08:55 PM	quick note
	98L no longer active
LI Phil (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 09:37 PM	Afternoon
	>>> Has JB said anything about the blob in the NW Carib.? Nah, Drooper, he didn't post today. He's somewhere in the midwest (or at least that's where he was yesterday). Things are seeming to wind down as evening draws near...lets keep an eye on the wave near the Caymans...slowed down to 10MPH...see where it is by morning light. As I said this morning, I don't know why 98L was still even an invest, glad they finally took it off the board. Haven't looked at any of the models yet, as a couple of you guys have mentioned above. From what you're saying though, sounds like we might actually have a read, honest to goodness TD this month Das it fo' now. LI Phil
HanKFranK (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 11:10 PM	on hold
	here's the rundown: two trouble areas in the basin have problems of their own. former 97L found a patch of ridging, convection came back today.. and predictably low level easterlies are surging in to sweep the surface 'hurricane stew' out from under the support. there, i just coined a phrase. anyhow all this stuff seems to be going the way of old mexico. no, it isn't hungry for tacos, so don't make that extremely funny joke again. 98L (which is one of two vortexes NW of the SW/NE oriented convection from w cuba to north of bermuda) has a convectionless swirl sitting 200 mi SSE of hatteras and a slightly more formidable (ha) one moving NNW which is SE of hatteras.. noted in the TWO. that's a lot of bearings to read and understand, probably easier to eyeball them in the visibles. off to the southeast a bunch of convection assoicated with a wave, enhanced by overhead diffluence, is coming up NW. should enter the mix tomorrow, maybe fire off more swirls. this is a festering problem area that has so far not caused any trouble. brief but pertinent off-topic. maybe it's that i just dated an english-teacher student or maybe i just feel like poking fun at people's spelling. no names, just some corrections for mistakes i keep seeing: 1) condusive. that's phonetically correct, but you spell it conducive. 2) comming. nope, just one m (coming). keep in mind you've just been informed how to spell correctly by a drawling carolinian (think slower boomhauer) who is not many generations removed from banjo-picking and moonshine. that should get y'all spellin' right. raaaight. enunciation is another issue. HF 2310z24july
LI Phil (User) Sat Jul 24 2004 11:38 PM	Hungry For Tacos?
	>>> no, it isn't hungry for tacos, so don't make that extremely funny joke again. (doing best Homer Simpson), "mmmmm tacos". HF you crack me up. Think you're right 'bout 97L, headed for the Yucatan. Granted, it's evening now, but everything seems to be falling apart. Hopefully everything will flare up with morning heat. Wave that exited Africa yesterday has actually held together reasonably well. And it's far south enough to avoid all the dust and dry air to it's north. Probably meet the fate of every other wave to come off the continent, but it looks pretty good so far. Wondering if this is what the models are seeing down the road (click on Kevin's link -- top of this page). Me think thu comming dayz wil be moar condusive four develipmint. Cheers, LI Phil
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 01:49 AM	not a lot to look at huh?
	i see the wave is still there.. laying low, waiting for the right time maybe.. as for the contests around here.. i always thought july 25/26 would bring the first system, as what i dont know. depression or storm.. not sure if it will pan out, will see .. maybe ed's is more realistic here is a thought.. what if we ONLY have a real Atlantic Hurricane season this year ? No early gulf No fake blobs in bahamas No Carib teasers Just a real Atlantic Hurricane season.. complete with CV storms? Doubt anyone around here will be all that let down I mean.. better to have the real thing that just a bunch of imposters talk tomorrow if something comes up coming, one M.. thank you..will remember that
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Sun Jul 25 2004 01:53 AM	Re: atlantic wave
	Seems like the convective blob located on the southern end of a wave that rolled off Africa a couple days ago has been producing consistent convection. It's located a little far south, but it seems to be gaining a little latitude in the last frame. Right now it's located near 8N 37W, and IMO seems to have the best chance at development during the next few days if it can stay away from the dry air to the north of it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html TG "I'm Tropics Guy and I approve this message"
LI Phil (User) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:00 AM	TG - You want some tacos?
	>>> "I'm Tropics Guy and I approve this message" TG: ROFLMAO! Actually, I think there's some new law REQUIRING candidates to put that little codacil at the beginning of every message. BTW, I work for a State Senator, so I'm a tad in tune to this stuff. Yeah, the African wave is lookin' pretty good (thanks for the link). For this time of night, to put up a convective burst like that seen in the last frame is pretty impressive. I think this impulse is the same one (or close to it) that the models are developing for late next week. Someone with more knowledge of this sort of thing than moi, please confirm or deny that statement. OK, I'm LI Phil, and I approve of this message.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:10 AM	Re: "97L"
	Ok Guys like I said 2 days ago 97L is dead, I know your tried your best today to get it to rise from the dead but it didn't. Woulldn't count 98L out yet it's looking for trouble. Dave
LI Phil (User) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:15 AM	Old Sailor
	(duplicate post deleted)
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:21 AM	Re: Old Sailor
	Not to bad Phil: Think you off by two words, Old Marine. There where have you isolating, my friend. Who didn't indicate that is 97L living? Even if he is, he will cross the Mexico and will emerge in the pacific ocean is. Hope goes you well. I know you guys want to see something come alive it will soon.
LI Phil (User) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:27 AM	Mon Français n'est pas bon
	I'll keep it en Anglais for the folks. Sorry about the "old marine" versus "old sailor". My 8th grade french teacher didn't make those particular distinctions. Yeah, we're all hoping for something, anything to track. I know it will come soon enough. Just was hoping it would come sooner than later. But, "the waiting is the hardest part" so it will be that much more enjoyable when our first TS or even TD does arrive. Have a great night...hope Droop caught his dinner. Cheers, LI Phil
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:34 AM	Re: Mon Français n'est pas bon
	(duplicate post deleted)
Storm Cooper (User) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:39 AM	Re: Mon Français n'est pas bon
	For whatever reason my link to NRL still has 98L up at this hour. Watch 97L... I think this one will hold on to be something... and whatever it becomes travel across to mid TX.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 03:48 AM	avn
	a lot of weather forecasters complain about the AVN, especially on TV as its no longer the "in" model but I think its good at showing trends often that later verify as opposed to some that are either very good or very off.. just my opinion and wanted to mention it
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 04:26 AM	SAL....ALex
	http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/wavetrkAsal.jpg sort of paints a picture..reason wave is still there.. and why maybe it has a chance like real estate.. its all about location, location, location
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 11:13 AM	7/25/04
	Still not much going on, but the TWO has something to say:- A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 175 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. ONLY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY TURNS NORTHWARD AND MOVES INTO A REGION OF SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER...BY MONDAY THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. So there is some potential, but I'm not completely convinced. There looks to be a decent flare up north of Puerto Rico this morning, but it doesn't have a mention in the Outlook. Also, the wave in the central Atlantic is looking quite good this morning. It will have to gain some latitiude though, otherwise all it will do is provide some rain for Venezuela in a few days. So, still quiet, but if the GFS run materialises we could be in for some very interesting days ahead.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Sun Jul 25 2004 01:19 PM	Bets Anyone?
	I bet that we DO NOT see a TD or TS by the end of July. I also think this is just like "snow days" we will be making it up in "June" or in our case "December"
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Sun Jul 25 2004 01:28 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	Hey guys, just been looking at the latest visible imagery and loops from GHCC on the low to the ESE of Cape Hatarras. The low is very well defined with a tight circulation, and ample banding of the low level clouds. Although it earlier had very little convection, this is now starting to change. There is increasing convection on the western side of the centre which is now wrapping in towards the core of the low. If this continues we may see a classification later today, possible as a TD or something subtropical. It doesnt appear to be moving much, but there is a general slow motion towards the NNW i would say. Does anyone have any thoughts on this small feature? Regards
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 01:35 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	As you said Rich, it's certainly very well defined. I wouldn't be that surprised if it managed to become a TD, but I'm a little sceptical that it will develop before it reaches cooler waters. Even if it does get classified, it would probably be around for less than 24 hours. Still, any activity at all would be nice, and maybe it will develop. Despite my scepticism, I do think it has a chance to become TD #1.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:09 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	I'm sticking with 97L's remnants OS. No way that sucker dies off that easily. It's been persistent. 98L has a pretty nice circulation. Let's see what happens when the trade wind surge energy gets entrained. I think both are possibilities for early next week . 97L would be an issue for maybe Texas or Mexico and 98L perhaps for the N.E. states or the Maritimes. I'm still shaking off the cobwebs so I'm not researching much this morning. Steve
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:12 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	Well the low-level circulation, small and tight as it is, located east of Cape Haterras is now begining to move into the area of deep convection in its eastern semicircle. This area of convection is slowly growing, and is wrapping in to the circulation, especially in the north and east quadrants. If this trend carries it may actually become our first classified system of the season. Regards
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 02:50 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	It may well do! It is looking better than it did earlier, and even then it looked pretty good. Based on its current appearance, I wouldn't be surprised to see some kind of classification. To be honest I didn't expect it to get better organised so quickly, but now that it has, I would give it a much better chance of development.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 03:04 PM	Hedging our bets are we?
	Seems to me that half the room believes the tropical wave split in two and like a dog refusing to give up its bone we are claiming victory either way because.. either something swirls in the gulf or it swirls off the E coast and either way its from the old wave so.. we were right .. if something forms its from that wave funny when you think on it will concede that the system off of the Atlantic as Rich said may become our first coordinated entity .. maybe Alex, but will it be truly tropical or a rogue storm either way may bring glancing rains to someone up the way as for west bound wave part..not sure it didnt sweep up into yucatan area and might get something going in gulf i just dont think the gulf is going to be very active this season.. not this way and... wave out in Atlantic that Steve Lyons is making fun of may not be very convectively exciting but its there and more so has a twist and held its own for a long distance so wouldnt write it off area ne of PR is showers interacting with various upper level winds, hoping it will enhance showers in this area if it keeps going.. I dont need enhancement, need action and need the real thing But either way we can all say energy from that wave got transported up into the atlantic and helped make a boring little alex who knows.. alex could go north and stay close enough in to give everyone a messy vacation on Martha's Vineyard or whatever is at the tip of the Cape Bobbi
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Sun Jul 25 2004 03:27 PM	Re: Hedging our bets are we?
	Well NHC say that development is not likely as the system is going to head towards cooler waters. Still think it has a chance though, all be it a short lived shot!
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 03:59 PM	Re: atlantic wave
	has its little arm up like its saying "charge" and trying to reach that moisture http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
Kevin (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 04:12 PM	Updated discussion...
	http://www.independentwx.com/atlanticdiscussion.html Nothing looks imminent at this point. The system east of the the US East Coast tried valiantly for a couple of days, but no cigar.
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 04:42 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	Noticed that the GFS seems a little less aggressive in its prediction of a tropical system in a few days. Still, as others have said, the models are quite unreliable with their long range forecasts. That's not to say nothing will happen, though. Nogaps, AVN, UKMET and CMC still want to bring an area of low pressure of the African coast in the near future, but then they all lose the system later in the period . I really hope something does develop - it's been 7 1/2 months since the last Atlantic system. If we don't have a named storm by August 4th, that will be the first time since 1992. Oh well, time is ticking away, and we are slowly approaching the busy time.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 05:44 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	IMHO, we've got a shot at 3 systems in the upcoming week. 97L will move into the Western Gulf sometime tomorrow. Then it's just a matter of seeing what it's got. As we were discussing last weekend, it will either be a classified system (which I've thought all along except right after it died off south of Cuba) or it will be a surge of deep tropical moisture. With the cold front (I don't think it gets into the coastal waters east of Texas except maybe the extreme NW Gulf) changing the wind direction and the 'cool' high pressure over the central MS Valley, an ultimate turn to north should feed in some action into Texas (original thought) or perhaps Louisiana & Mississippi (current thinking). FWIW, this isn't a wishcast. The tropical moisture will get drawn into the front which will be in my backyard. The key with this system has always been to wait (patiently or impatiently) until it got into the Gulf of Mexico. With the ULL diving SW in front of it and with the front on its way (currently the dry line runs SW-NE from AZ to IA), it's going to be a question of timing. As for 98L, the transformation to potentially something tropical is underway. The LLC has seen some convection but it needs more energy which should be supplied via the P.R. wave/surge in trade winds. Bastardi likens the potential "surprise" to 1985's Henri which out of the blue popped off the VA coast. He's not saying look at the VA coast, but there should be tons of tropical moisture with the front to rain out several of the big cities and areas further inland. He thinks it will move NW then North down the line. Finally, the wave N of Puerto Rico seems to be most active on its southern flank. With the easterly push from behind, it can only go W or WNW. We'll have to wait and see if it wants to turn into something on its own or if it only wants to impart energy into the other systems. Steve
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 06:30 PM	okay steve... so you dont like the atlantic wave
	Okay I can deal with that..that's why we are all here. Trading opinons, would be a pretty boring discussion if we all agreed with eachother now...wouldn't it? Looking all over for something worthy of discussion and not much to say except..waiting. And... I want to say something about the wave entering the Gulf but I really can't. I don't see it yet. Steve posed the set up well ...still, just cause you give a party doesnt mean the guest of honor will arrive. But, I do keep glancing over to check. And..all I want to say is that all that glitters isn't gold. And, just because you see reds on the IR doesn't mean there is something happening. System near PR fires up and so does southern edge of the trough where everyone is watching the northern edge for development. And, out in the Atlantic. Nothing...nothing much but its as there ..as is Steve's remnants entering the Gulf. This is the first season since almost 1992 w/o something on the maps.. not even some barely passable named system about ready to dive into Tex/Mex line. Found notes from 2003 season, first early storm and well just shows you that an early start to the season does not mean a great season ..just an early season. Think we are getting closer, much closer.. really don't believe we won't get through July without something, so holding on to that dream anyway. Someone say something incredibly intelligent about some model or a new angle where we can view all the areas we are watching that don't have as much rain as Miami is having today. Lastly.... want to say... 3 cities that are way overdue for a Florida Cane. No special reason, no analogs, no dreams, just the honest truth... overdue for a dead on hit. Ft. Lauderdale Tampa Jax thought that keeps hitting me over and over.. Ft. Lauderdale Bobbi
HanKFranK (User) Sun Jul 25 2004 06:35 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	interesting corollary, henri of '85... don't think this one will be classified, though. 98L is just far enough east so that the already drenched areas of north jersey don't get a great deal out of it, but southern new england could very well get soaked. ssts fall off fairly rapidly north of hatteras/va capes, so should just be a tropical low/rainstorm for monday. if it is classified.. well, it'll just be a t.d. 4 of 2000 type system. not illiciting dvorak classifications so that's a doubtful outcome. 97L has to contend with a stronger easterly flow.. which has been inducing lower-level shear and pushing vorticity below 700mb or so out ahead of the convection being supported in the area. not sure about fallen heights to the north having much of an effect.. it probably won't develop.. so most of the moisture influx should stay to the south in mexico. i'm not for it developing.. looked good for it back on tue-wed.. kinda pissant now. past these features, nothing on gfs in the believable future that's worth mentioning. the stuff out there will need several runs of relative agreement on trouble before they have any credibility. mjo is acting funny.. on the anomaly charts it did a backstep... it's wave seems to have split and given it a multiple phase. possibly had something to do with SOI lingering in the negative, or the late but harsh arrival of the monsoon in south asia. it will be hard to time the arrival of the next wave, since the neat and regular propagation earlier this year has gotten mixed up. nino 3/4 is in the warm phase now. 1/2 are hanging in the cold phase. this is similar to last year and the year before that (perhaps a compromise of the two). SOI continues to hang negative, so the onset of el nino is becoming a likelihood. HF 1835z25july
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 08:06 PM	el nino
	i agree hankfrank its a definite possibility and something to think on.. been thinking on it for a while as we had no gulf season to speak of..none..and thats rare and can complain about a lot of various possible reasons but... still winds there have been as if an invisible el nino was out there messing things up.. and... negative tilt.. will see.. you know im not one to play with the tilt thing too much and dont think its here unless its invisible but you have to watch the signs sometimes and wonder.. late afternoon and nothing looks better than it did this morning "SOI continues to hang negative, so the onset of el nino is becoming a likelihood" and yeah...andrew was in a relatively el nino year, wasnt it? yeah yeah ..you only need one but whatcha gonna do if you get two at the same time? could happen its possible
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 08:08 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	Forgive me for just briefly changing the subject to El Nino, but if it does materialise later in the year, is it possible to know whether it will have a supressing effect on the 2005 Atlantic season, or is it too far away to know? My guess is that it is too distant, but I'm not sure. On a more related note, SSTs in the GOM have begun to warm again, so if the wave formerly known as 97L can make it there, it would have a good shot at development. Note the emphasis on 'IF'. The wave in the Caribbean is still holding onto its convection, but it seems to be weakening, and the convection may be disrupted if the system brushes the Dominican Republic and Haiti. We should probably look east for development during the coming days and weeks.
danielw (Moderator) Sun Jul 25 2004 08:31 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	97L still hanging on!! Still really hard to tell, but there appears to be a low level circulation off the NW cuban coast. Shows up best on the water vapor loops. Cuban radar is no help. Buoys all ok, stable right now. Nothing but the diurnal rise and fall. What about the mini-wave/trough moving westward across lower Louisiana. Any thoughts on this?
James88 (Weather Master) Sun Jul 25 2004 08:54 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	It isn't looking too impressive at the moment, but then as you said it probably has something to do with the diurnal rise and fall. It might look a little better in the morning. The TWD has something interesting to say about a wave in the C. Atlantic:- NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MAY BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NE AND A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE WAVE NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES. Could be interesting in a few days. There are warm SSTs, the SAL is not too potent in that region, but there is a pall of dry air hanging throughout most of the Caribbean. Still, maybe this wave will be something to watch in a few days. BTW, doesn't Dr Gray release his updated forecast next week? It will be interesting to see whether he leaves his numbers the same or not.
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Sun Jul 25 2004 10:17 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	Convective activity at the base of the west Atlantic trough, although on the wane at the moment, appears to have a weak circulation near 16.1N 67.9W at 22Z. Seems to be low-level and movement is slowly westward. Cheers, ED
Justin in Miami (Storm Tracker) Sun Jul 25 2004 10:20 PM	Re: okay steve... so you dont like the atlantic wave
	Yes Bobbi....I actually live in Ft. Lauderdale...we have not seen a direct hit from a cane since probably the 1940-60 high activity period (King, Cleo, and the late 40s storms); then we saw a number of brushes, scrapes and hits. We shall see.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Sun Jul 25 2004 11:23 PM	Re: 7/25/04
	I think if El Nino forms it shouldnt have a big effect on the season. We are in late July... one or two good mjo's phases with the waves we have going and we should have an atlantic hurricane season.. yes, 1997 came on like gangbusters but really is pretty rare and believe that was referred to as the El Nino of all El Ninos so .. doubt it will effect the season which is coming up fast. I mean height of the season is less than 2 months away, would have to be a bigger one that 97 to have that sort of effect.. dont you think? closer to December... late November, thats my guess something isnt being figured into this if you ask me, missing some factor here i think as they say hindsight is 20/20 but its way too quiet bobbi
danielw (Moderator) Mon Jul 26 2004 01:50 AM	Re: 7/25/04
	97L Remnants. This one has 9 lives. You can still see the circulation just N of the NW tip of Cuba. Looks like a little drier air is being swallowed on the NW quadrant. I guess sunrise will tell us if it will remain together. A large NE to SW swath of dry air in ahead of the circulation, with some east to west shear, so I doubt it will make much northern progress overnite. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:51 AM	Re: 7/25/04
	Ed: I looked for a weak circulation near or in the area of 16.N, 68W But couldn't see anything maybe it's my old eyes, the GOM of W Carri seems to settle down tonight. Dave
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 07:57 AM	The Gulf
	What was 97L doesn't look like much at the moment, and it has very little (if any) associated convection. Maybe it will flare up as it moves into the GOM. As Steve said, it's about seeing what this wave has got. Notice that as far as SSTs go, the Gulf is extremely favourable for development. Since there's been no upwelling by other storms, the water has been allowed to warm undisturbed, and as a result there are now some pockets of 32-33 degree water - the kind of temperature that can support a hurricane of any category. The GOM may well prove to be a very dangerous area this season. Interesting to note that just a couple of months ago people were saying that nothing would happen there because of below average sea temperatures.
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 09:13 AM	Action in the tropics - south of Long Island!
	Well, 98L is not ready to give up yet! Check out the latest TWO:- FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AROUND A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 220 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK LONG ISLAND. THIS SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM. SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 MPH...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. IF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THEN A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY..AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE INITIATED. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT BY TONIGHT. ESLEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. If it develops it would obviously be short lived, but it would be a tropical entity nonetheless! Looks like July may get a tropical system after all. It is unlikely that it would reach tropical storm status, but who knows, maybe it will surprise us. As earlier posts have mentioned, this does bear some similarity to Henri in '85.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:14 AM	Re: Action in the tropics - south of Long Island!
	James: If this was the fall or winter this system looks like be a good classic "nor'easter storm, in some ways it just maybe one depending on how 98L combines with the low coming off of the East Coast.. Just wait and see.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:23 AM	Is Phil getting his wish?
	Woke up this morning.. put on the wxr radio ... haha Phil gets his storm I mean thought I was still dreaming. Did the NHC really say they expect development? Winds already 25-30.. and potential to be... then again they did hedge and say possibly a subtropical low.. but wouldnt be surprised if they sound so bullish at 5am for it to be Alex* subtropical. Somehow sort of perfect, like to get that name over with and officially will be a July storm and... can we move onto Bonnie in the Atlantic? Sort of reminds me of a skater in an old vaudeville skit.. skates on the stage, does some trick and joke and keeps skating off stage.. in between acts... waiting for Bonnie to come on stage. Here today...gone tomorrow... but officially on the books. Is that the way its going to be?
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:25 AM	Re: The Gulf
	What was left of 97L is now in the BAY OF CAMPECHE , and part of the wave that broke off is adding to storms with a front coming off of Tx, La.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:27 AM	BOC?
	Looked at your loop... the GOM loop. Hard to not notice the showers in the GOM.. BOC... low ..not buying into too much but still.. has a swirl of funny look. Like a blue lava lamp turned sideways. Another year I'd pay attention but my eyes turn eastward, still wondering.. is there any possibility?
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:27 AM	Re: Is Phil getting his wish?
	Maybe this will become Alex, it depends on how well it holds together. It's looking good on imagery at the moment, with plenty of deep convection. Funny how a system can suddenly come to life again in a matter of hours. As Old Sailor said, the low coming off the East Coast could be decisive. Looks like Phil may get his storm a little closer to home!
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 12:51 PM	Will 98L be the first TD of the season?
	26/1145 UTC 38.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 98 -- Atlantic Ocean Well according to SSD dvorak yes but at 11 AM we will know for sure if the advisory comes out.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 01:05 PM	for Old Sailor...: The Gulf
	So...okay, does it have a chance at anything or not. That was my question. And.. you answered the one about whether or not its part of the other wave before they became seperated. thanks
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 01:44 PM	Re: Will 98L be the first TD of the season?
	Not long until we'll find out, then. I wouldn't be surprised if it did get uprgraded, but I doubt it would last very long at all. The convection already seems to be weakening, but then to quote a much used example, TD #4 in 2000 had hardly any, so this system has a few things giong for it. Let's wait and see...
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Mon Jul 26 2004 01:50 PM	Re: Will 98L be the first TD of the season?
	hey guys, posting this off a mobile device as i'm at work, so not sure if it'll work. 98L certainly looks good, wouldn't be surprised to see it classified as a TD or STD at 15z today. Unfortunately i cant update my site til i get home at 1930z! typical. hopefully by then we'll have our first classified but short-lived system. Regards as always
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:23 PM	Re: Is Phil getting his wish?
	>>> Looks like Phil may get his storm a little closer to home! Wow, you stay away from the computer for 36 hours and lookie what happens. Haven't really had any chance to check out the models, just looked at some ir loops. 98L could actually develop! As far as my "wish" or my "storm," nah. That was my June 14 first guess, and then 97L (which could somehow, incredibly, come back to life). No...the first storm is going to be EVERYBODY's storm. Let's get it out of the way already. Be nice to get something named in July, but at this point, I'll even take a TD. Namtheun really bombed out in the WPAC and two new Invests in the EPAC. And how did Celia hold on for so long? Can Alex be that far behind? Cheers, LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:26 PM	a Yankee view
	no..not mine, I'm all southern but.. figure you may as well watch from where others up there might be watchin nice view of convection building, but is it enough for a name? http://www.wmtw.com/Global/link.asp?L=1705
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:29 PM	Re: Is Phil getting his wish?
	Apparently this system is moving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, so it doesn't have a huge amount of time left, but I still think it will develop. The first tropical system doesn't form in this area that often, but is does happen. I doubt that this will get named Alex, but it may surprise us. It will be nice to get that name out of the way, there have been so many false alarms. Even so, hopefully the name will get attached to a worthwhile system. Regarding the 2 invests in the E. Pacific, I think that one may well be upgraded to TD #5E today, and then possibly Darby. A lot of activity today, it seems.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:31 PM	Re: for Old Sailor...: The Gulf
	Like I said the other day, my feeling is that 97L lost it's chance in the West Carri.... May just bring some rain to Mex orTex. Dave
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:42 PM	Will 98L be classified?
	Not sure if 98L will be classified at 11AM, NRL probably would have switched 98L invest to 01 Noname. Correct me if this is incorrect. But as previously mentioned by Cycloneye, according to SSD winds are estimated at 30kts.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:45 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	it will not be classified; they didnt classifiy the other two or three depressions this year
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:47 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified? and whats with ULL/wave?
	http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/AT/2xpxIRSatellite.html Whats with the area out there east of Bahamas/N of PR.. is that an upper low that is beginning to catch some moisture? Keep trying to ignore it but its making me look. Have looked on a few sats this morning.. just playing here for now. Not sure if there is enough deep color in that invested system to warrant a name vs depression status but.. will know soon. Doesn't look all that good but does have the Dvorak rating and its not really tropical in my opinion.. more subtropical so they do look different, don't they?
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:47 PM	Re: for Old Sailor...: The Gulf
	Tend to agree Dave. I've been holding out hope for the last buncha days, but it doesn't seem like it's gonna crank. It was a wave I enjoyed tracking, but it never could get its act together. I'm tending to agree that it should be Mex/Tex moisture (some models over the last few days have it moving up NNE-NE through Texas once inland a couple hundred miles in Mexico. Weather's weird here today. It feels like fall almost. Temps are 84 and sunny - not bad for a late July morning. 98L seems to be enjoying the Gulf Stream. It's either the 2nd or 3rd Depression of the year in my book. Whether or not NHC chooses to classify it or not remains to be seen. It could go either way, but with Dvorak up to 2.0/2.0, one would think they'll at least consider it. The Bermuda High is pretty far west and this most likely kept the coast dry. For this week, the thing to watch will be the wave NW of Puerto Rico as it retrogrades into the North Central Gulf. The UK Met and especially the ECMWF (European Model) like a fairly substantial wave moving into Texas later this week. That would teleconnect nicely to what's going on in the WPAC with the Typhoon moving west at 30 North. Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:52 PM	for steve
	Good thoughts, elaborate more please on how that system gets into the Gulf.. please. And, thanks for posting my favorite link awhile back..its like having breadcrumbs.. I can always find it when I need it. Thanks.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:52 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	I agree, It will NOT be classified. I'm sticking to the notion that there will not be a named system in July.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:54 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	my forecast for the year: 14 storms will form
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 02:59 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	that last anonymous was me; the login page wouldnt come up I am very close to giving up on this hurricane season and finding something else to occupy my time. do we need a cat 5 hurricane before the nhc decides to classify something?? we have a tropical or subtropical depression in the Atlantic, what are they waiting for? there is convecion, an LLC, outflow to the east, and a somewhat tropical appearance just like 2000: td4 was a TS according to recon, but not classified as one 45mph tropical storm TS on Aug 12 (same area as this one), never classified subtropical storm at the end of August; well-defined LLC and 40mph winds at NC landfall, not classified subtropical storm at the beginning of October, looked much stronger than the later one; not classified
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:00 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	98L looks quite similiar to Arthur in 2002 just before he got classified. It was obviously a different situation then, but I just noticed the similar appearance on satellite imagery.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:01 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	I noticed that too why have they not classified anything this year??? the only hope (which will likely be proven wrong when the outlook comes out) is that maybe a recon plane is on the way and maybe they'll classify it at 2pm
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:04 PM	Re: for steve
	>>Good thoughts, elaborate more please on how that system gets into the Gulf.. please. Probably right across Florida. A very strong ridge will be building in from the east and everything in the way will get moved off to the west (retrograde style). ECMWF likes the idea of a ridge from Utah all the way across the SE (and probably up toward Scandanavia if my map went that far East). >>And, thanks for posting my favorite link awhile back..its like having breadcrumbs. Was that the Canadian site with the green background? Steve
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:07 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	I have nothing but respect for the NHC and the good work that they do every season, but I have to admit that they seem to be reluctant to classify some systems this year. They've called some dubious systems in the past, but when one that is quite clearly worthy of an upgrade at some point comes along, they ignore it. Once again, I would like to stress that they do a great job with their forecasts, and that they are very knowledgeable, so I wouldn't expect to see a system with an eye and banding features described as a 'well defined tropical wave' in an outlook this year. Time for that word again - 'Patience'.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:09 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	I noticed that the EP system hasnt been upgraded yet, meybe the site just hasnt been updated (hopefully)
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:11 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	nrl site no longer comming up
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:13 PM	Re: for steve............
	ummmmmmmm don't make me laugh so hard, people gonna wonder what i'm laughing at.. oh Steve.. I meant THIS one .. of course .. http://www.weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html Oh course if you want to send me that Canadian one again, oh I'd be quite the happy tracker too!! Really, really. And..so like next time someone asks what Andrew was all about I'll just say he was retrograding his way towards Louisianna across Florida.. oh I see. Bugs.. ummm forgot what I was going to say.. you're right. It has the signature.. really good signature for at least classification as a depression. Even if short lived. You know.. sometimes something doesn't have to hang around for a long, long time to make a BIG impression.
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:13 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	Yes Rabbit, I was expecting that to be upgraded at this advisory, but as you said, maybe the site just hasn't been updated. I think it's a great candidate to become Darby. Back to the Atlantic, I think that if 98L doesn't get upgraded by 5pm, it will be to late, since it is moving towards cooler waters and may be absorbed later tonight.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:16 PM	Re: Will 98L be classified?
	the nrl satellite is still from 10:32am also, here are the 2000 systems I alluded to 45 mph northwest of Alberto subtropical storm--NC sort of looks like Arthur in 1996 subtropical low off of Canada
Jamiewx (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:24 PM	No development now
	NHC will not classify according to TWO, as the system is merging with a frontal zone. Also i can't help noticing that almost everyones rating has been reduced to one star, including my own. I guess some don't think too much of the frequent posters.
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:25 PM	11:30 TWO says it all
	Well, I guess we can quit following 98L now. How many systems will fail to get assigned TD status this season? How many so far? (none & none)
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:27 PM	Tropical development for 98L unlikely
	ABNT20 KNHC 261519 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2004 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK LONG ISLAND IS MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADERS NFDHSFAT1 AND NFDOFFNT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADERS FZNT01 KWBC AND FZNT22 KWBC. ESLEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. FORECASTER PASCH $$ Well guys now the waiting continues for the first storm of the season.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:31 PM	Re: Action in the tropics - south of Long Island!
	Old Sailor: You kind of called it this morning more like an nor'easter storm.,,,,,,,,,,
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:34 PM	The fault lies not within the stars...
	...but within ourselves. >>> Also i can't help noticing that almost everyones rating has been reduced to one star, including my own. Last week I was busted down from 3 to 2 stars, probably on my way to 1. I wouldn't worry too much about it. In fact, look at it as a 'badge of honor.' You've obviously made someone upset (maybe not you...maybe someone else) and they're taking it out on the board. Who cares? It's the weather that's important, not your rating. Keep up your excellent posts.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:40 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	I am lowering my major hurricane forecast from 6 to 5; this is not a change of forecast Every chat and forum I have been on I've been saying 14/9/5 I am not sure exactly why i had it so high and here is the forecast itself AUGUST 4/3/2 several recent active seasons (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000) have had for storms in August, and 2001 and 2002 had four by the end of August SEPTEMBER 5/3/2 OCTOBER 4/2/1 NOVEMBER 1/1/0
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:41 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	I was wondering why people like HanKFranK, Steve and Phil (to name just a few) were down to 2 stars. Oh well, as Phil said, the focus is on the weather. BTW Phil, you asked how many systems should have been classified but weren't - I make it 4. Just a matter of opinion I guess.
Rabbit (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:48 PM	unclassified systems
	May system (SubTD or SubTS) Atlantic system (same time as Gulf low, SubTS) 96L (TD or TS) 98L (TD or TS) so I agree it was 4
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 03:48 PM	okay......
	Wondering what words I can use that won't get jerked off this board here. So.....basically the NHC teased us with possible classification or the A team came in at 6 and didn't agree with the early morning team.. or.... Yes.. it is merging, just like they said it was going to merge. One doesn't have the Dvorak rating.. okay.. I can see that one. Didn't want to send a plane in after the last "send a plane in fiasco" okay... We don't go by satellite imagery.. What exactly are the parameters? It has to be headed towards Long Island NOT away from Long Island? Or.. maybe has to have real staying power and be sure that it will be able to keep it going for over six hours until the next report. I can see them not wanting to touch it this morning knowing it wans't going to be around long.. but they are the ones who started this and they don't want to finish it if you ask me. Has an excellent signature for at least depression status as well as the dvorak reading. Have a lot of respect in general for the NHC but this is beginning to get a little silly and juvenile. And, don't want to take up Bastardi's banner of how some systems don't get classified and others do and it seems like there is no real standard except for whose on first and whose on second on any given day. As for the stars.. oh I lost mine a long time ago. Thought it was just me.. figured I annoyed someone around here a while back and I'm not allowed back in the elite no matter how many posts I post. and no not going to even bother rereading this post .. just let Ed do whatever he wants with me and let him decide if its worth keeping.
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:01 PM	Bashing the NHC
	OK folks, here's the deal. I'm leaving everyone's posts up. I agree with you all about NHC not classifying systems this year. I've PMed ED to give him a hEDsup, and I have asked that as a professional met, to give the board some sort of understanding as to why NHC has not classified a single system this year. He's probably going to take a scalpel to our posts, as you know his admonitions about direct attacks (sort of) on NHC. If any of the other mets or people in the know want to explain why we've yet to have a classified system, I'm sure the board would love to hear it. Lets just leave it at that for now...no more dissing the NHC until we can get an explanation. It'll make Ed's job a little easier tonight. Thanks. LI Phil
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:09 PM	Re: unclassified systems
	hey guys, i'm not normally one to say anything against the NHC but i feel that we have had another classifiable system go unclassified, and not for the first time this year. i noticed last year there were one or two systems which had the same fate. NHC generally do a good job, and perhaps the justification for not classifying 98L is that it was only going to be short lived (i.e <18 hours) and was no immediate threat to land. well looks like the wait for Alex goes on! by the w y my rating went from 4 to 1 but i am not that worried Regards
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:36 PM	Re: unclassified systems
	I agree with rabbit and others about previous storms this year that went unclassified as a TD, but what can we all say here, our opinions and observations here have truth and merit, but the bottom line is the "experts" at the NHC make the calls on storm classifications with all the information made available to them and with their experience., that's why they get paid the "big bucks". Anyway, here's a good visible loop of the Tropical Nor'easter or 98L or frontal storm, or what ever you want to call it. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html TG
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:37 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Phil: Think the NHC plays it safe , They are the ones that call all the shoots for USA. Anyhoow don't see much going on today. PS, Must been my turn lost a star too. At my age only worry about what hair is left. Dave
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:42 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Joe Lundberg from accuwx pro made an interesting obs. Since NHC failed to classify the system that killed thousands in Hispaniola, there is NO WAY they are going to classify anything less than that. That doesn't explain why they didn't classify the Hispaniola system, but it could explain why they haven't classified anything else.
doug (Weather Analyst) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:46 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Keeping my posts to a minimum so far this year...lost a couple of stars myself...no biggie, as for 98L not being classified, don't think we can seriously criticize the NHC on that call on this system..don't think all the criteria were met before it was obvious it was merged with the trough...just my opinion EDS.
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 04:55 PM	Why we are here
	The postings on this site reflect the interest in storm formations ; sometimes we win and sometimes we don't win (hate to use the 'lose' word). It is the way we gather together to interpret the situations in the tropics that I find most appealling. You all do a good job!
doug (Weather Analyst) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:02 PM	Re: lets discard the rating system
	The board is for fun...some are more technically astute than others, but we all do this as a hobby or just for fun, except the pro. mets. EDS.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:05 PM	Re: unclassified systems
	It's got to be more than 1 person in on the star rating game. Someone recently was given 1 star and I changed it to 5 - might have been Rob Mann - (which if anyone rated is reading this, you probably got a counter "5" from me) and it only went up to 2. 5+1/2 = 3. I was hoping the C bros would delete the user rating system a long time ago. But they decided to let it stand. I'll go with the badge of honor thing as well. Watched Bastardi's videos today after the last pot. Nothing major in the works for our side. He think the wave NW of Puerto Rico will get involved with the east and the ULL NE of Pueto Rico will be the one retrograding through the Gulf along with the wave about to enter the Islands. The only problem I have with that take is that the said wave/ULL combo to the EAST wouldn't be to Texas by the time my EUROPEAN and UKMET runs ended (6 days). Oh yeah, here's the CMC's official site: Environment Canada's Hurricane Center CMC Model Steve
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:07 PM	That glob north of the Windwards/PR/VI
	I am interested in knowing if that glob north of the islands is simply the result of afternoon heating-or not; it does have a nice circulation to it. but could a LLC develope in that environment?
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:09 PM	Re: convection east of Bahamas.....
	Has anyone else noticed the area just east of the central bahamas?. For the past couple of days this area fires up some big convection, then dies down at night, but seems to keep coming back, haven't heard it being mentioned except that it's part of a trough possibly interacting with some wave energy. TG
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:17 PM	looked at the loop, thanks for posting it
	Just watched a similar loop on the tropical update on TWC and.... I'm not going to be a quiet, goody two shoes little girl on this one. It looks better now than it did at 10. Its tightly wound. Has closed circulation. Storms have wrapped all around. And, its moving en masse as in entity. And, unless someone took stars away from the Dvorak its got a high enough rating. So......explain to me why it couldn't have been classified as a Sub Tropical Depression (at the least) and given cords and an advisory. Come on.. I want to be explained "why" it doesn't deserve that much respect. I doubt seriously that the NHC is taking the Haiti horror into account. Early enough into the season and they did issue a disturbance statement on possible flooding though thats sort of like calling Ricky Williams leaving the Fins a small bump on the road to the SuperBowl. But, still it did receive some attention. If it had been about to plow into lower Texas I venture to say it would have been upgraded to TD but I believe they can say they felt there wasn't enough hard data to upgrade the Haitian disturbance. Very unpopular on the boards but we aren't the ones calling the shots. We are simply posting out thoughts, putting out thoughts and hearts out on the line where others can read and agree or make fun of us. And, that I may say takes guts and shouldn't be told to watch what we say because someone may be watching. I am not trying to get a job anywhere as a professional met. I am an amateur. But, sometimes an amateur with experience can read the signs as well as professionals with their own priorities and .........looking for the right word here... predispostions to what they want to record for history's sake as a verified system.. real.. one for the books. So.. I just want to say here.. that I respect tremendously posters here who bother with their time, energy and creativity to post their thoughts.. leave them on the table for debate and leave their chips where they may. A lot of respect. Trust me .. I have MORE respect for some people here who are as far as I know amateur/hobbiests than I do for many TV people especially a few at Ye Olde Weather Channel. Whether they have a star or a registered name. I am grateful for their presence here and I want to hear their thoughts, raw and honest and sometimes witty. I wasn't the one that came up with the brillant idea to name Subtropicals. They could have kept them seperate.. you know Able, Baker, Charlie or they could have named them after trained seals at the Seaquarium.. but it was their plan their idea and if they have that classification available I don't see why they aren't going to use it and classify. Life is about today, not yesterday.. get over the past and not worry over how long it will be there. From where I sat watching that loop on the tropical update it looked to me that it was a closed, spinning system, warm core over the very warm Gulf Stream and it should be at least given classification as Sub-Tropical #1 for the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2004. nope.. no goodie two shoes go quietly into the night Bobbi here.. and I'm wearing heels, nice ones and that's my thoughts for what they are worth.. one star, two stars or none at all.
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Mon Jul 26 2004 05:53 PM	NHC
	Ahh, the good ole' bashin the NHC when the weather is utterly boring thing again...LOL IMO the NHC has done a great job this year. Earlier this year everyone jumped on them for not classifying that blob in the gulf. If Im not mistaken, that was mainly a trough of low pressure, not just one defined Low pressure system. It became very linear as that day progressed and it never had a chance. Now almost everyone gets on them for not upgrading 98L....IMHO I wouldnt put out one advisory on a small TD thats 6 hours away from being absorbed by a cold front, and moving out to sea over cold waters. Seems like a waste of time to me. Now if it was heading towards NYC or Long Island, I guess if they wanted to play it safe they could issue and advisory for it. Maybe Im the only that feels this way cause Im lazy, I dunno. I do agree with ya'll though that the NHC can be very inconsistent with the criteria they use to upgrade a storm. Remember Grace I think it was, last year? There has been some bad calls no doubt but dont bash them, Im just as anxious as all of you to get the season underway. But if you ask me, I dont want the first storm of the season to be wasted on some dying Low Pressure system, put that name on a healthy lookin wave that deserves it. LOL Patience is the name of the game. Good Day ya'll
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 06:25 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	How does that star thing work anyway?? sc
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 07:44 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	Basically all you do is click on the user's name and go to their profile. Once there, you can vote 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 *'s depending on how you feel about said poster. Not sure how well these two photos will translate, but with the front developing right overhead along with some wave energy for 97l, we've been n the midst of a t-storm for about 40 minutes. There was some instantaneous thunder+lightning last time I went outside for a smoke break. That was a bit scary. Steve Oh well. It looks like the system no longer allows us to upload pictures with a post. Forgetabout it.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 07:57 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	my complaint about the stars is way back when i rated a few people. I'm not the type to do something just cause it says "rate a poster" mind you but decided to and then time passed.. i guess a lot of time passed, and i got that itch again to well .. you know rate someone and it told me "you have already rated this poster" sort of annoyed me cause i don't remember rating him and what like you only get ONE chance? What if things change, or your opinon changes or you decide to be nice and decide they don't really annoy the hell out of you and they are really developing into a real bang up poster that you love to read and "you have already rated that poster" so.. annoyed me but felt a drop annoyed when i lost all my stars but then.. well.. figure not going to let it bother me maybe i should feel honored if am in same category as hankfrank losing stars btw..steve you can email me those pics if you can't upload them, sunny here today, blue skies despite forecast for higher chance of showers would love to see a nice storm about now bobbi.. to be really consistent with my umm nature you'd think id have at least double stars oh well lol ill just sit here and wait in miami for some system to retrograde over me
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 08:00 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	You might not have to wait too long. Last I checked Goes 12 Hurricane Sector IR , there was energy less than 100 miles away from you. Maybe tomorrow? Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 08:03 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Hey Phil, Do you think NHC hasn't really spoke up much this year because of the all mighty $$ ? Once NHC, steps up and says there is a TD or TS, then the money wheel starts spinning. (or spending) The local weather picks up on it, and before you know it, they are sending planes, changing schedules etc. etc. I was here for the Floyd mis-hap when Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral and Orlando went code RED for a complete miss of the storm. NHC had lots of Egg on there faces. Maybe it's thoses types of situations in the past that have finally caught up with NHC, so they are playing the cautious card??
LI Phil (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 08:31 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	You raise a fair point, but for this system, they simply could have put in a disclaimer, something along the lines of "THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY LANDMASS". I believe Ed will be explaining it from a pro's point of view, so keep tuned. Speaking of Floyd, I remember that one vividly. I believe it was a CAT IV brutalizing the Bahamas and headed for Florida when the decision to evac was given (and if I'm not mistaken, that was the largest peace time evac in US history). Cantore was all poised to bring the best footage since Andrew and then all of a sudden Floyd made a hard right and headed towards Hattaras, and eventually, me. Well, ol' Jim got on the first plane outta there, but since Seidel and Kenealy had already staked out their spots in NC, JC headed up to Point Lookout, about 9 miles south of me. So I got to meet the great Jim Cantore! Sorry for the story (some of y'all have heard it before), but the point being that NHC may have "goofed" on Floyd, but it's quite a bit different to make the decision to order evac for a CAT IV storm 24-36 hours away from the US mainland (and on a direct path, no less), than to "classify" a storm whose Dvorak #'s certainly were of TD status. It's probably in some part due to money, but when you're talking peoples' lives, it's probably better to be safe than sorry. This (98L) would have affected neither.
James88 (Weather Master) Mon Jul 26 2004 08:39 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Definately, Phil. There are some examples of waves being assigned tropical depression status when it was clear they would be very short lived. Look at TD# 2 in 1999 and TD #9 in 2001. They only had two advisories written on them, but then they threatened the coast of Mexico and Central America respectively. Number 9 obviously had potential - it became CAT 4 Hurricane Juliette in the E. Pacific. As others have said 98L posed no threat, so I guess they will only upgrade something short lived when it is going to make landfall. I may be wrong, but that's my thought on the matter.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 08:42 PM	Re: The fault lies not within the stars...
	Steve: I think Florida in for some heavy( Thunder storms) rain the next 36 hours or so, in my area we picked up 7 inches of rain the last 10 days, now over 11 inches for July. See what happens when it come across FL into the GOM. Dave
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Mon Jul 26 2004 09:19 PM	Re: FLORIDA RAIN
	What is that on the loops a trof axis or a wave coming into South florida? Will it hold together or is it from the heating of the day?
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Mon Jul 26 2004 09:42 PM	Re: FLORIDA RAIN
	I think you are talking about the thunder storms in the Bahamas heading to south/ center FL. There is a Strong SE wind from tade winds, and merges with exisiting frontal trough. Just a rain maker for FL, May cause problems down the road when it reaches the GOM and still holding together, wait and see thing. Dave
HanKFranK (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 10:25 PM	trouble with the nhc
	four depressions so far this year? uh, i'd go with maybe one. all of the others were too poorly defined or transient to illicit classification. but yeah, that thing that crossed haiti on may 23-24 was definitely a tropical cyclone in my book. the argument against i've heard people make usually involved 'well, you see there was this upper trough, and it was shearing the system during much of its lifetime and it only briefly had a classic tropical cyclone appearance, the rest of the time its convection was removed or the low level center was elongated'. but then i don't follow with the idea that association with an upper trough precludes something being tropical.. especially if it originates in the caribbean or isn't stuck on a frontal boundary. the thing yesterday into today was probably a tropical depression. it was a closed low pressure of tropical origin over support threshhold waters.. that began to associate with a front today and sheared out just a few hours ago as the upper trough finally got hold of it. nhc didn't feel like classifying a weakling system in light of the fact that a similar one in may wasn't classified.. one that killed 3000 people. anyhow whenever gary padgetts analyses are updated we'll get a lowdown independent of and more inclusive than nhc's. there's isn't a whole lot of potential for the other features out there. eastpac continues to fire off storms, so one would expect the atlantic to respond in kind. shouldn't before late in the week. HF 2223z26july
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:20 PM	not bashing nhc on my part.. disagreeing
	its a free country and im allowed to have my own opinions i dont think there were four systems .. maybe one besides this one but even that not sure.. this i think/feel/believe IS a subtropical and I am very into telling it like it is and being honest, even if a short lived one and i dont see how it can be justified as not ... if you want to say you dont want to bother.. i agree with phil.. call it, issue advisories, insist it is going out to sea and not a threat.. they have done that many times, people are not stupid and i dont think boston would have to be put under a threat of tropical attack during the democratic convection because of this.. they are used to storms forming, merging, going out to sea and agree with james in that which way its headed does have some input on their decision just.. i like keeping it real and to the truth.. and i dont like pretending something isnt what it is when it is and i dont like on the other hand pretending something is bigger than it is because it fits someone's needs.. dont like hype .. dont like games in forecasting i think NHC did an incredible job with floyd which was a horrible worse case scneario and honestly at any time that monster could have changed direction just enough to do untold damage to florida i dont see how anyone in florida can complain.. i was at the beach alot taking photos and could hear that monster screaming and moaning like a tornado about to descend upon the prairie..different from almost any other hurricane "out there" i have ever heard.. maybe some people in NC could feel too much emphasis was put on Florida and not them but their local people should have known better in my opinion one reason i love the re-evaulation of old storms that is going on because i think they correct a lot of bad calls and tho some disagree.. its one reason i am happy about Andrew being renamed a five.. think it deserved it now..off the soap box done ranting and what is happening in the bahamas? bobbi hope its not another monster out of nowhere cat five storm like that 35 storm, which i really doubt was a cat five but i have my own reasons for that and they are based on solid research historically of the period but thats for another day
BillD (User) Mon Jul 26 2004 11:53 PM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	I decided last year to stop posting for a while, mostly because I got caught up in one of the NHC bashing scenarios, it has been going on here on this board and others for many years and does tend to get out of hand. The reality is that the NHC formula for categorizing a storm is not 100% based on weather observations. There is some percentage that is politics, some percentage is the fact that they are human (and as someone said, there are some forecasters that are predisposed to certain forecasts) and a percentage that is tied directly to the possible costs of a situation (like Floyd, although I think they did the right thing with Floyd, I was here, in Miami, I was sure that we were going to get nailed). On this board everything is based on just the observations and the human factor, we don't have to worry about politics... except for a little posturing here and there or money, but they do, and I think they do an excellent job, it is not a job that I would want. I agree with bobbi that disagreeing with the NHC is not that same as bashing, but some of what I read went beyond disagreeing. Let's drop this and go back to watching the tropics. I have been reading every message since the season began, and enjoying the different points of view and discussions. Bill
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 12:04 AM	hi Bill
	just part of the way things go.. i dont think there is a fan anywhere of some sort of hobby that doesnt spend half the time frustrated with the coach, nhc is the coach why why why..y is a crooked letter why did they say andrew would catch the trof why didnt they see betsy would turn we weather folks are like sports folks and we tend to complain a lot, get frustrated, disagree with the calls, stress.. maybe we should all find a secondary hobby.. one less stressful from the hurricane tracking dont leave because some bash the NHC, they only do it when they are going out of their minds, pencils sharpened, dates for travel and vacations blocked out around the peak of the season, empty charts calling.. no..dont leave.. wait it out nhc does a good job, all in all and as said...there are some political considerations here and there and also..am sure some personality conflicts and disagreemetns of their own which they have to keep under wraps .. government job, you know? just hang in there good to see u, glad you are here wheres the old poster PINC, I miss him.. he always talked about stress.. he was right, tracking hurricanes leads to stress, but he made it less stressful and that writer is right.. some people spend too much time being angry enjoying their favorite hobby bobbi (off-topic material removed)
LI Phil (User) Tue Jul 27 2004 01:27 AM	Re: not bashing nhc on my part.. disagreeing
	>>> f you want to say you dont want to bother.. i agree with phil.. call it, issue advisories, insist it is going out to sea and not a threat.. they have done that many times, people are not stupid and i dont think boston would have to be put under a threat of tropical attack during the democratic convection because of this.. Bobbi...LOL. The Democratic Convection! You must suffer from "When the hell is the NHC ever gonna classify a TD" syndrome. Affecting us all...
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 01:46 AM	For Bastardi Fans and netwaves.net (Panama City Beach)...
	http://www.net-waves.com/weather/tropics.php That's the new updated links for net-waves.net I don't know how they did it, but they've got Joe's Tropical Update from today right there on screen. All you have to do is click the Accuweather Link. No kidding. Enjoy. Steve
Ed Dunham (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) Tue Jul 27 2004 01:56 AM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Looking for a good lead-in line - lets see: Today the inept forecasters at NHC refused to upgrade a significant tropical wave to Depression status and felt the wrath of 2 or 3 thousand astute tropical weather enthusiasts from around the world. This is the seventeen worldwide occurance of this serious infraction this year of tropical meteorological guidelines. No - wait a minute - doesn't seem right - lets try again: Today the professionals at NHC, following established guidelines, properly handled the classification of a dime-sized, elongated and sheared system and did not upgrade it to TD status. Unknown to them, this created quite a stir among maybe twenty or thirty avid fanatical tropical weather watchers that dissect every wave (wet or otherwise) hiccup and burp in the Atlantic basin , on a couple of weather boards, that happened to take issue with their decision. It is felt that this outrage will probably not have much impact on changes to NHC policy. I guess that we do this every year don't we? Only since its often the same folks, I can't figure out WHY we do this every year- it makes me wonder if we are learning anything? I want to emphasize that word 'why'. Its okay to disagree with NHC or TWC or anybody else, but at least tell me WHY you disagree (credit to Bobbi - she at least stated her reasons why - and HF and Steve always provide their rationale). To simply state that in your opinion there have been four TDs this year, without telling me the meteorological conditions that made you feel that way, teaches me nothing. Even the NHC tells you why they did or didn't do something. Disagreeing with NHC is when you explain why - bashing NHC is when you don't explain why (or you haven't got a clue). I'll accept the former on this board, but not the latter. For some of you, I think that NHC becomes your favorite 'whipping boy' - when they do something, they are wrong and when they don't do something they are still wrong (usually the latter). Makes me wonder if they ever do anything right in your eyes. Yet every year we jump on their case during the season, but when the season is over we comment on how great a job they did on this storm or that storm. I'm guilty too, but at least I try to make an effort to explain my differing opinion if I have one. Some of you should do the same. Here is a reality check: If the NHC had never mentioned this system in their discussions over the last couple of days, none of todays dialogue would have happened. Think about it - I mean really think about it. They give you a 'heads-up' that something COULD happen - are they wrong for that or were they just doing their job? Nothing happened (my opinion and obviously theirs), i.e., it (the potential TD) didn't and they (NHC) didn't - time to move on. If I were working at NHC today (rather than CPHC many years ago - snuck that one in didn't I) I would have made the same decision. It had some TD characteristics, but not enough. It had a low-level circulation, but that circulation quickly became elongated east-west under the influence of the front to its immediate north. Convection was constantly under west southwesterly upper shear and could not wrap around the core. Even the models never projected anything greater than 29 knots. If the wave had been upgraded to a TD, it probably would have generated an outcry from those who would have felt that it didn't deserve it - a lose-lose scenario. In my professional opinion, I don't think that there has been a TD yet this year in the Atlantic basin - not a one. Perhaps a bit unusual, but thats just calling it like I see it. The Haiti/Dominican Republic wave came close, but I don't believe that it had a closed circulation. I didn't see any reports, aircraft or surface of westerly wind - not a single one - so I believe that, although very strong, the wave was open and therefore not a TD. Lets face it, we are really not here to debate the merits of the NHC or any other agency - we are here to track tropical systems. I think that its time to get back to that - sooner or later something will happen - it always does. Cheers, ED P.S. Great post BillD - thank you for coming back to make it.
Old Sailor (Storm Tracker) Tue Jul 27 2004 02:11 AM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	I agree 100%, they call the shots and from the years I followed The NHC....... They have been on track and given wise rating and status to their forecasts.
LI Phil (User) Tue Jul 27 2004 02:14 AM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Ed, Thank you for the excellent post and for explaining NHC (and CPHC)'s reasoning. Since you are a professional met and have been tracking these bad boys for what, 50+ years, I will not argue. However, I do beg to differ with one point. When I wake up to find a system (albeit, no threat), 200 miles to my southeast, with Dvorak T#s of 2.0/2.0, and an excellent satellite signature, what's the harm in giving it a (in my lame and humble opinion) a TD status? To my mind, NHC's mission is not only to protect and serve (ala NYPD et al), but to truthfully report every system. Why did we have Peter and Odette last year? They were no threat...but NHC still took the time and effort to track them? I don't want to wishcast or wavemonger or any other terms. And, Ed, since I'm the one who begged you to explain this, I will respect your opinions on this matter, you have more experience in this field than probably everyone else on this board combined...well, maybe not Old Sailor, but you catch my drift. Thanks for explaining. We can all agree that 99.9% of the time NHC does an outstanding job. We are just a bunch of dedicated weather enthusiasts who sometimes feel that questioning their judgment is our sworn duty. There's a reason every "amateur" and "professional" website provides the caveat, "Do Not Rely on these Forecasts...always check NHC (or NOAA or whomever) for the official word on this". On an unrelated note, John has turned off the Star Rating system, at least for the time being. What was at first an excellent and well-meaning vehicle for honest opinion sharing, over the past two weeks became a tool for either a disgruntled user or a hacker to ruin the noble purpose for which I'm sure John & Mike spent a good amount of time to enable in the first place. OK, that's my piece. I will continue to respect everything for which NHC stands and the great work they do. And BillD, wlecome back. And thanks again, Ed, for the response. Not quite what I wanted to hear, but I will accept this as the final answer to the ongoing debate. Everyone have a good night. Cheers, (NO STAR) LI Phil
DroopGB31 (Weather Guru) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:02 AM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	I agree with you 100% Ed.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:09 AM	Re: It's looking wet
	Interesting reads everyone and I wondered about those stars myself at one point awhile back.Oh yea the new headline the WV imagine looks awful moist out there guys, the apple is just about ready for picking.Things happening in the Pacific now puts us in the first week of August right?By the way off topic did anyone else's home ower insurance happen to almost 2x this year?I almost choked.
javlin (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:14 AM	Re: It's looking wet
	That was me guys some work with the system today I guess.Look back in few days.Bobbi just have to love that emotion of yours.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:28 AM	Re: It's looking wet
	>> WHY we do this every year- it makes me wonder if we are learning anything? Just a quick note Ed (enjoyed the post btw). The problems include perceived lack of consistency, potential political pressure, self-verification/justification issues among others. As long as the degree of subjectivity is excercised as greatly as it is at the NHC, there will always be plenty of room for criticism, not all of it unwarranted IMHO. That's not to say I don't love them and what they do either. But like you said. It's different when the back-up is provided. Steve
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:41 AM	Starting over
	Good post Ed. Agree on most points .. not on all but good post. Nice to see you writing, you write well. Agree with Phil who said stated views pretty well. Tomorrow brings a new.. a new set of possibilities. Don't tell me though not to get excited or passionate about tropical weather because this is what binds us. Or I'd be doing one of those other hobbies some of which I may point out dont need to be done online. But, life isn't just about the tropically inspired and we all have other things on our minds and its been a long, hot summer. So... let's see how tomorrow plays out and the day after that and that. Thanks for all the hard work on the site by the two brothers and everyone else. I can agree with someone and still respect them. And, I do respect the Hurricane Center greatly. Some of the nicest, best people I know work at the hurricane center. Talking personally know... not like people here who I know online but of couse they work at Virginia Key lol. Okay, seriously.. I went to FIU.. where NHC control room is set up so... let's here it for the home boys and call it a night. Nite.. rained here.. thunder and lightning.. maybe a prelude to tomorrow and the bahamian rain. Bobbi
joepub1 (Storm Tracker) Tue Jul 27 2004 05:10 AM	Re: Bashing the NHC
	Great post Ed. I also think there have been no TD/TS yet this year. I save my bashing for the models for the most part, the GFDL being my favorite target. Garbage for the most part, even though it has performed better the last two years IMO. Politics plays a part in this area, for sure. It costs alot of money for emergency shelters to be opened, phone banks to be manned, evacs, ect. Most of the time local govenments have to pay the piper with money us locals (and states and the federal gov. as well) don't want to come up with. All this has to come into play when a NHC forecaster makes a call on naming (or just putting out an advisory on) a system. When the system has few, if any, tropical features, it's up to the local weather people to get the word out, because when the NHC speaks people sometimes take it as an end-of-the world type of thing. I have thought in the past the NHC went a little too far in naming some systems that were no threat to anyone or anything. I think they're getting it right this year. Just because a weather event caused 3000 people to die, and I'm really sorry that happened, does't mean you have to give it a name. Giving it a name would not have saved lives in that case this past May, nor will it bring any one of them back. If you must, call it whatever you like. Make it TS Alex in your book, and count it. Do it for today's system as well. But please don't do it just because we are not going to have a named system for the first two months of the season. We'll have plenty of real tropical cyclones to track in a short time. Of course, that time is not now. The tropics are about as void of features as you'll ever see in late July. But soon, fellow storm trackers, soon.
James88 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 12:41 PM	Bahamas?
	The convection in the Bahamas is really flaring up and looks a little more concentrated. Something to watch for today, perhaps.
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 01:15 PM	Re: Bahamas?
	Wondering where all that convection will flow? W-NW or just W?
Tropics Guy (Storm Tracker) Tue Jul 27 2004 02:14 PM	Re: Bahamas?
	The ETA model runs show a deepening low off the sw coast of Fla/se gulf by Fri. Presume that this is the wave/disturbance moving east to west from the bahamas. http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=eta_sfc_mslp&loop=1 TG
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 02:16 PM	Re: Bahamas?
	Myself Joe. Originally I thought the pulsing high tide of the Bermuda Ridge would just nudge it past Florida into the Eastern Gulf where it would probably get picked up along the old frontal boundary draped SW-NE. But watching the loops, it appears that the majority of the new flareup is NW-NNW of where the last ball of convection developed. Remnants of 97L are still down in the BOC, but I doubt they pull anything off. Typhoon Namtheun (gusts to 130k) is taking a very interesting path in the WPAC. Bastardi likens it to a storm that would be taking aim for land between Jacksonville and Savannah from the E or SE. The moral is the strength of the ridge over Japan and it's teleconnections to Eastern North America. He doesn't give much else much of a chance. He noted that the ULL NE of P.R. has entrained a tropical wave and requires monitoring as the convection may start working back on itself. If the ULL splits off SW, it could leave a mid or llc under a difluent flow. Check out the UKMET 00Z run for more info. Steve
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Tue Jul 27 2004 02:32 PM	Re: Bahamas?
	Hey guys, not alot to talk about at present really. The only significant area of interest is that in the Bahamas, which several have already said about. This area has seen persistent activity for a while now, and the convection is still firing up today. Interesting that some hint at this making it to the gulf by the weekend. We all know how ripe that area is for development at times, so if it makes it there it will bear watching. Of course, alot can happen between now and then though, but it would be cool if it became something on Saturday - i'll be 25 then Anyway, will post again soon. Kind regards.
LoisCane (Veteran Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:12 PM	Steve/and Bahamas
	Steve... i beg you... take a deep breath.. let it gooooooooo "Remnants of 97L are still down in the BOC, but I doubt they pull anything off." **************************** next... why do I have high clouds, cirrus over my house ..way way high up to the nne ... sw is dark, low clouds, building tstorms maybe... why the cirrus? sort of wierd ...not something you see much in miami in late july anyway... watching.. not obsessing today, nope.. going to work... watching the sunshine and the storms flirt with eachother and will see if anything happens bobbi ps...if I get rain from the Bahamian rain.. I will go outside, stand there, stare up at the rain and whisper sweet nothings into the air.. and so if something happens in a day or two..or before july is over or on july31st (eds date) then yall owe me, you hear?
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 03:38 PM	Bahamas/Florida Rains
	Tropical Weather Outlook Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on July 27, 2004 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico... Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the western Bahamas are associated with westward moving tropical wave. Surface pressures remain high in the area and development is not expected. Tropical storm formation is not expected through Wednesday. Forecaster Avila $$ I guess this will provide rain for Florida for the next 2 days.
LI Phil (User) Tue Jul 27 2004 04:49 PM	Awaiting the rain
	Hey all, Home sick today . Good discussions yesterday. Looks pretty quiet today. In a few hours I'm about to receive about 36 straight hours of rain (training rains). Flood watches up everywhere. Those poor bastids in Jersey are just getting pummeled this year. Will be watching the Bahamas' system with interest. Maybe something gets going late week. Unfortunately, it's looking more and more like we'll enter August stormless. BTW, keep your eye on that WPAC monster. Weakening, but still packing a whallop. 18' swells pounding Japan. Wonder if it will teleconnect (as per Steve/JB) down the road? Later, LI Phil
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Tue Jul 27 2004 05:27 PM	Re: Awaiting the rain
	Hey Phil, hope u feel better soon! TheBahamas 'mess' does need watching. I just viewed the GHCC visible loops for this area, and noticed what appeared to be a possible mid-level circulation south of Andros Island. Not sure for definite cus it only appeared in the last couple of frames as the high level cloud begin to thin. Will keep watching though Regards
Cycloneye (Storm Tracker) Tue Jul 27 2004 07:50 PM	Tropics quiet for the moment
	IWIC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - 27 July 2004 - 12:45 PM EDT Each run of the operational GFS continues to show a strong tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa in 5-6 days. Conditions will likely be condusive for tropical development by the time the wave reaches the eastern Atlantic. We are now entering the time of the season when every single wave coming off the COA will have to be watched closely. I'd very very surprised if one of these waves don't develop within the next 10-14 days Those remarks are from Jason and Rob of IndependentWx.com.Will things begin to heat up soon in the atlantic? I see dust and more dust but I know that normally it fades by the peak of the season so we will see.
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:00 PM	Worth Watching
	That 'mess' at 65N 25W appears to be circulating.
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:01 PM	ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please
	Why doest the dust tend to fade as the season gets closer to the CV Season. I know it does and the height of the dust season is usually a month or so before the height of the CV season. Read that a few places but I don't know why.. so asking..do you or anyone else round here know why? Bobbi
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:09 PM	Saharan Dust Aloft
	Storm activity in the desert region ebbs during this period; these storms send top soil particles aloft and get carried by the trade winds that generally get deposited in the GOM sparking off an algae bloom with the nitrogen-rich particles. These storms subside before the Cape Verde season begins, generally.
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:21 PM	Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please
	Hey bobbi, Thought you might have been brewing tea with tropical raindrops or something, no? >>That 'mess' at 65N 25W appears to be circulating. 65N and 25W? that would be north of Iceland. I couldn't find anything to speak of there. Heh. On IWIC: GFS 360 this morning showed a hurricane off the FL coast. I don't know if NCEP has it (I get to 372 hours on Accupro). The 12Z run takes a 996mb storm toward the NJ shore. Obviously any faith in the GFS at 15 days out is beyond anything remotely resembling reality, but it goes to show that the action's 'acomin'. Interestingly, it also shows a few drive-by shootings of waves in South Florida. Steve
rmbjoe1954 (Weather Master) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:24 PM	Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please
	Would you believe 65W 25N? (To the East of the Bahamas and north of the isles?) I guess I do need education(LOL)
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 08:44 PM	Re: ok..cyclone..educate me a bit here please
	Yeah, I was only kidding (thus the "heh"). I had a whale of a time finding a Goes Sat that I could click on to get me to those coordinates because the Longitude lines get pretty close together once you get to the land of Sigur Ros and Bjork/Sugarcubes. Anyway, 65W 25N (or thereabouts) is the wave-entrained ULL that I noted Bastardi mentioned on his Tropical Update this morning. His worry (backed by the GFS Upper Air Charts) was that the ULL was going to back off SW and allow the buildup of energy to generate bottom up instead of top down (under the ULL). The departing ULL would leave rising air/diffluence in its wake and allow for potential buildup. None of the models depicting this (UK Met, ECMWF) showed anything 'severe' hitting coastal South Carolina, but the ripples in the isobar lines were right there on the map. Also, that would teleconnect with the JTWC's last prediction for the WPAC Typhoon. Elsewhere, the Gulf is still muddled a bit from the cold front (nice here in the city today, lowER humidity), 97L continues to churn away in the BOC (sorry Bobbi, I can't let it go until it turns up into the front or progresses into Mexico - it's the only game in my neck 'o da woods). And finally, the wave energy on the western periphery of the Bermuda High off the East FL coast is probably kicking up some decent surf (go Robert) and should keep the Peninsula under the gun for a day or two. Tough to tell if the wave axis will continue west or if the convection is going to ride the ridge. We'll see. Steve
Hurric (Weather Guru) Tue Jul 27 2004 09:18 PM	Re: Worth Watching
	I just got home and noticed the twist in the clouds on visible Sat Just to south of Andros near 23.5N, 77.5W. I don't remember seeing it early this morning and was wondering if anyone could tell me how long it has been there and at what level it is. We are not getting the rain expected this week in coastal St. Lucie County, FL--yetVisible
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 09:27 PM	thanks for the dust info... miami wxr @5
	They led off with the weather as being a main story which I thought was a bit much. Kamal says the wave has now stalled. And, it should enhance rainfall (wouldn't think that is a BIG story, has been raining a bit) and... added that there is no way it can get going into anything .. but still it will rain. Why they had to lead with a IR sat pic I don't know. We haven't had flooding rains where I am that it should make such a difference. Imagine new forecast is calling for heavier rains. Tho..with a system stalled out over the warmest parts of the gulfstream.. I wouldn't be sure of anything. 1? Why did it stall? Thought the High was supposed to shove it west 2? If there is a twist at 65 then how does that influence this.. 3? wouldnt a twist at 65 and an ULL be sort of strange with the high building. on my part i really haven't looked too much today because like how I decided not to obsess about the weather and all so... just curious what is going on out there thanks for the explanation, steve hang onto anything you need to and will reread what you said joe said bobbi
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 09:31 PM	hey there.. oh and ps
	i did know you went w and not north so dont worry on that as for hurric.. hi and.........think there is a twist and its why there isnt much rain going on and the sky outside is quite blue .. all things considered I don't think it just stalled.. I think its spinning on SOME level. watched radar loop a bit but couldn't tell anything for sure, your loop is better.. does that mean development, no.. just interesting thats all wondered if it was spinning a drop because when we lose the weather we were supposed to get well.. figure there is a reason, seems to have become a bit of a tropical invert down there
Rich B (British Meteorologist) Tue Jul 27 2004 09:40 PM	Re: Worth Watching
	Hey Huric and guys, Huric, i first noticed the twist in the clouds near Andros, or just south rather, at around 1700z this evening, it only became visible as higher level clouds thinned. I am guessing this circulation is probably at the mid-levels, and seems to be getting a little better defined. The majority of the convection is located away from the circulation, namely south over Cuba and north and west over the islands and towards Florida. Could bear watching if it hangs around in this region as the SST's are pretty high there. Regards
Steve (Senior Storm Chaser) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:27 PM	Re: thanks for the dust info... miami wxr @5
	It probably stalled because of the push from the west with the dying frontal boundary and the push overtop out of New Mexico . Systems are a little blocked. I recommend a healthy dose of Water Vapor Loops. The High over the Atlantic is enormous. There are some ULL's underneath. But that's par for the course and the evolution of the summer. As I was speculating last weekend, that's really a setup that can bring long tracked storms in. Considering the Bermuda High hasn't even tested how far west it can get, down the road is a big question mark. Steve
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:35 PM	thank u, im soooooooooooooo bored
	thanks for the water vapor loop heard norcross was a little more into watching for possible development, just watching mind u. i mean its not going anywhere fast. think friend said he used the word "inching along" and supposedly tomorrow should be lots and lots and lots and lots of rain should make me smile, huh?
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:36 PM	Re: Worth Watching
	after watching a visible sat loop at 25n 71 w , i saw that swirl emerging from under the clouds, which has recently had a blob of cold cloud tops directly over that lon/lat,what do you all think
HanKFranK (User) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:47 PM	disc 27july/some offtopic at ed's mercy
	before reading the posts on here i was going to say the following (nutshell version): watch the area around florida and the bahamas through the end of the month. add to that the typhoon teleconnection and the scenario is slightly more interesting. i'm not too impressed right now, it's still fighting the westerlies... and nothing very exciting in the models (except for those long range phantom storms steve was talking about). you can get the same 16-day gfs runs at the ncep models page. they're pretty much useless past 7 to 10... usually can't nail the pattern much less timing of waves. SOI tipped positive for the first time in a while. have to really make a stand to block an el nino onset. i don't like el nino's effect on the south, so i'm willing it to stay positive until doomsday. by the way byett, a happy 25 to ya saturday. enjoy the bitter, or whatever there is to do in the u.k. on one's birthday. my bud turns 24 on saturday.. so i'll probably be out having fun then too. as for the classification debate the other day.. i'll stick by my guns on that may system, iffier about the unclassified invest from yesterday. ed's logic is good stuff.. hearing a 'seasoned veteran' with better than canned nhc explanations does have an effect. but i'm pretty sure we had one in may. which leaves...bobbi. the editing axe has been left in the shed for a couple days.. you got some real ramblers in. those are some strange hobbies you've got there... try not to get arrested. anyhow it's slow time with that one area sheared and undeveloped nearing 70w. almost out of july, so if it's coming it had better hurry. HF 2346z27july
Justin in Miami (Storm Tracker) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:54 PM	Re: Worth Watching
	Plenty of rain in the everglades....not much circulation: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kamx.shtml We shall see.
LI Phil (User) Tue Jul 27 2004 11:55 PM	Tuesday E'en thoughts...
	Evening y'all, James88 & Luis, thanks for the kind words re: my feeling like $h!+ this morning. Feel much better now...probably the meds kicking in. Pretty gosh darn quiet out there. EPAC & WPAC are giving us a show, but das about all. Haven't had a chance to even read/watch JB today, and at this hour, not gonna happen. Did read all your posts though. Steve--there wasn't one person on this board rooting 97L on more than I...big guy...time to pack it in...not gonna happen. Although, could you imagine if that little sob gets across CA and gets a name in the EPAC? Anyhoo...as I said this morning, unfortunately, I think we're gonna be devoid of tropical trouble until August. This better make up for June/July, that's fo' show! Doing best JB, Enjoy the weather, it's the only weather you've got. Ciao for now. LI Phil
Unregistered User (Unregistered) Wed Jul 28 2004 01:30 AM	Re: Tuesday E'en thoughts...
	Well... I don't see a lot of circulation. I've looked at the various loops and radars. What I do see is a total lack of movement. It looks like its just festering a bit, hanging, lingering, floating over the area. I understand the steering currents have collapsed to some degree and its a sitting match. It might inch closer tomorrow to give Miami more rain but I heard the rain was supposed to start by now..and they haven't. Agree with all of you that the area should be watched, anytime a wave is sitting over warm water it should be watched. Feel better Phil. Really hope you feel better. As for long rambling posts.. those weren't all MY hobbies, silly.. just hobbies. An example of some you can all take up while waiting and trying not to bash the NHC. And, I'm being good. Laying low.. remember?

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center