(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:36 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Charley is now up to 40kts and is forecasted to reach CAT 2 strength over the GOM. Bonnie is up to 50kts and is expected to intensify to 70kts prior to landfall.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:42 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Jamaica has issued TS warnings and Charley is est. to be 1005mb. The fun begins??? Recon late this afternoon.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:48 PM

RECON STARTING

URNT11 KNHC 101430
97779 14304 30281 89100 52300 99005 54632 /4591
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 01

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:55 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

Bonnie might just be pulling an Alex on us here--up to mph now
Charley is expected to get pretty close to Louisiana near the 16th

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:56 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

You know, when it said 'recon later today' my eyes read 'late today'. Eyes just not kicking in today. Brain is telling me that what's left of Bonnie will pass just to the north of my backyard in a few days, but these don't usually add up to much. The're pretty dry by the time I see them, but I'll take anything at the moment.

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:57 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

for anyone who was up very early this morning, my "tropical wave" theory obviously didn't pan out--maybe I was just tired

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 02:59 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

28.1 89.1 PUTS RECON NEAR OR SOUTH OF MOBILE

LONG WAY TO GO.... PASS BY BONNIE IN HR OR SO

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:01 PM

DISCUSSION

000
WTNT42 KNHC 101437
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE BONNIE
HAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DROPSONDE DATA NEAR THE
CENTER INDICATED 70 KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE
SURFACE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 51 KT. A SECOND DROPSONDE ALSO
MISSED THE CENTER AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY
AND THE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...A LITTLE BELOW THE MEASURED PRESSURE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. MORNING 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS
OCCURRED AT 500 MB...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE
NORTH LATER TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND
IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 36-48 HOURS...A
SECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE BONNIE TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 48-60
HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT
AFTER THAT. A 96-HOUR POSITION WAS ADDED FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE
BONNIE CIRCULATION MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE
TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AFTER 72 HOURS.

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WHICH MAY RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER
...THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT
WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS AS BONNIE PASSES OVER OR NEAR A WARM
EDDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
KICKS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...
BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES BONNIE A 102 KT
MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED
AT THIS TIME SINCE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BONNIE IN BETWEEN 36 TO
48 HOURS...IN THE FACE OF 50-60 KT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

THE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF
BONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE
NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NWS OFFICES...AND INLAND WFO FORT WORTH AND WFO NORMAN...FOR
THE 6 HOURLY UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS TO HELP IMPROVE THE FORECASTS.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/1500Z 24.2N 90.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 11/0000Z 25.0N 90.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 11/1200Z 26.2N 90.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 86.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 13/1200Z 35.5N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 14/1200Z 49.0N 70.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT OR EXTRATROPICAL LOW

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:01 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

sure you were tired rabbit what time did u go to bed?

as for charley, wish he'd slow down.. how fast is he going to end up going at this rate? then again.. will slow down development, right?

is bonnie turning or not?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:03 PM

ADV

000
WTNT32 KNHC 101444
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004

...BONNIE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...

INTERESTS IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST OR ABOUT
350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

BONNIE REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ONLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM CDT POSITION...24.2 N... 90.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 4 PM CDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:04 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

went to bed at 5:30

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:15 PM

Too much JB to post here, so just the blood and guts...he sees Bonnie strengthening to a hurricane, possibly as strong as a CAT II, landfalling Thursday morning between Dauphin Island and Apalachicola. It does not die inland, however, as he feels it will shoot up the east coast all the way to west of Boston.

He's a little more uncertain on Charley (who, like Mike C., keeps jokingly calling Clyde), but doesn't see this one recurving, but rather making a WGOM hit, possibly as a CAT IV!

Both of these puppies need to be watched carefully...cuz there is a very good chance they're gonna turn into BIG DOGZ soon.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:17 PM

CENTER EXPOSED? BONNIE

maybe its just me, or the sun coming up. but could bonnie be taking a peak at the sun? alson is there a nnw movement i am starting to see?
the northern side looks to be losing storms.... some shear is affecting her wake up this morning. can't wait til noaa recon. shouldd get good data around storm.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:17 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

URNT11 KNHC 101500
97779 15004 30259 88100 57100 99005 56622 /4592
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 03

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:25 PM

Re: RECON STARTING

I am a little curious. Is this trough coming in the gulf now expected to be strong enough to start to turn Bonnie. She looks to be moving just north of WNW right now. What about the front coming down in a couple of days that is expected to make it into the gulf? Any chance of that slowing down or being weaker than forecast by the time it arrives? Just a little concerned on the affects it will have on the two storms.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:26 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Just an aside: anyone in and around Tallahassee who happens to tune in to the FSU public radio station - not sure what it is on the FM dial - will likely get to hear my comments on T.S. Bonnie over the air. They called my boss, who had me come to the phone and talk about the latest developments at 11am (almost without having read the advisory -- had to use a special source to get it!) - sorta preparing me for on-the-fly responses in later life, I guess!

In other news, I thought Bonnie looked more ragged this morning than it did yesterday, but the hurricane hunters suggest otherwise. Goes to show you how much satellite interpretation is but one tool in identifying intensity of a storm; if only we could send recon out to more storms. However, things are still looking like a path somewhere between Apalachicola and Pensacola (as I told FSU headlines), but I'd really narrow that down a bit to Ft. Walton on the west side. Latest NHC path is a bit further east than the 5am path was.

Charlie is not shaping up to be a very friendly one, if you want to use those terms. The track was nudged quite a bit east for the first time with the 11am advisory, calling for a landfall in about 5 and a half days in the same general area as Bonnie. If the GFDL & GFS are to be believed, the storm could impact the Apalachicola area (GFDL says cat 3 intensity), which as I mentioned in another thread yesterday is a potentially disasterous path for the Wakulla County/St. Marks Wildlife Refuge area. I don't have the storm surge maps for North Florida handy - perhaps later today - but a Cat. 3 would put much of Wakulla under water just with the storm surge. Again, that's 5.5 days out and it's too early to tell what will happen, but it's never too early to be getting prepared - which is exactly what everyone from Galveston to Key West should be doing right now, particularly everyone along the NW Florida coast for what looks to be a landfall minimal hurricane in about two days' time.

Hope to have the storm surge maps for North Florida & some output from the FSU Superensemble later today, but don't hold me to it.

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:32 PM

another repost of my forecast

AUG--5/2/1
SEP--5/4/3
OCT--4/2/1
NOV--1/1/0

may have to increase the August numbers pretty soon if we keep getting storms--we got 3 storms in the first third of the month, and there will verly likely be at least three more

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:33 PM

NW Florida surge

some what of a storm surge map

storm surge

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:34 PM

Cantore?

Anyone know where Jim's going? If the models are to be believed, he may be able to set up shop at the Spinacker in PCB for a week or so.

Mi amigos in PCB (Coop, JK, Andy1), best of luck to you...and of course everyone else from New Orleans to Tampa.

Guess this makes up for the slow start to the season...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:42 PM

Re: CENTER EXPOSED? BONNIE

bonnie appears to be fighting some bad northerly shear this morning....

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:44 PM

Re: Cantore?

FYI - Hurlburt Field (Fort Walton Beach) has gone to HURRICON 4 - 72 hours before the anticipated arrival of sustained winds of 50 knots. Preparations are underway on the Emerald Coast.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:50 PM

Good Tracking Map

From hurricanetrack.com, here's an interesting tracking map.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:51 PM

Re: Cantore?

URNT11 KNHC 101530
97779 15304 30239 87200 57200 99005 56741 /4592
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 05

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:53 PM

Re: Cantore?

looks like boys made a pass on bonnie
000
UZNT13 KNHC 101524
XXAA 60155 99253 70878 08157 99019 29256 17012 00165 27650 16511
92851 21830 17511 85581 18057 19514 70217 09239 17010 50594 05162
11508 88999 77999
31313 09608 81508
51515 10166 00050
61616 AF966 0103A BONNIE OB 04
62626 SPL 2532N08783W MBL WND 16512 AEV 20400 DLM WND 17512 01853
8 WL150 17012 081 =
XXBB 60158 99253 70878 08157 00019 29256 11938 22418 22903 21056
33850 18057 44805 14857 55766 12863 66729 10640 77612 03857 88491
05963
21212 00019 17012 11963 16012 22892 18511 33850 19514 44740 16511
55677 17512 66578 16013 77491 10508
31313 09608 81508
51515 10166 00050
61616 AF966 0103A BONNIE OB 04
62626 SPL 2532N08783W MBL WND 16512 AEV 20400 DLM WND 17512 01853
8 WL150 17012 081 =

hurricane_run

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 03:56 PM

Re: Good Tracking Map

http://www.hurricanetrack.com/Java/seatemp.html

heres another map.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:05 PM

Re: Cantore?

So JB thinks Charley is WGOM, does he....

While myself and Bugs were up at oh, 2-3 am this morning, I started to see that a case could be made for such an event. But this morning I'm swinging back over to a EGOM landfall again. What bugs (no pun intended) me is that if the cold front misses 'Clyde' Florida could get blocked for a short time from a landfall from the west. But I'm seeing too much this morning to lead me to believe thats not going to happen(FL landfall) as Chucky is covering too much ground in a short period of time to get missed. Still, JB tends to look at the worst case most of the time. Not that I think a landfalling Cat3 in the panhandle/bend area is the lesser of two evils.

Just much more likely to happen

In my May numbers that I put up, I also said that Florida would get hit by two named storms this season. I didn't know that they would show up in the same week......
13/8/4
3/1/1
soon to be 3/3/2???

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:07 PM

Re: another repost of my forecast

cracking up...you are doing me in rabbit, sorry you missed that july storm

anyways...... i have problems with a forecasted track that was based on a front picking up bonnie and then hearing on TWC "lets take a look at that stalled out front"

seeing as the last one stalled out too..why would we think this one wouldnt?

next one looks stronger but i...

do not see bonnie moving NW yet..

so all bets are off in my mind

lol, funny day so far...

so like Charley is approaching gulf on 35th anniversary of Camille. wow...35.. amazing, beautiful gorgeous incredibly intense storm which formed back in 69.. 35 years, my gosh

well...let's live in the present for now and stay focused

its 2004 and Charley but hard to forget that date coming up

Bobbi

giggling, you are alll sooo cute!
in a very very good mood here

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:10 PM

Re: Cantore?

LI Phil - dunno where Cantore is going, but I do have an e-mail out to a friend at TWC to see if they are sending her out (yes, an OCM, but I'd prefer not to reveal her identity) and, if so, where. If I hear anything on that regard, I'll post it (unless I'm told not to share it). I'm interested myself because a group of us in Tallahassee are thinking about heading out there on Thursday ourselves and were wondering where TWC was looking.

I found the North Florida evacuation map for the Big Bend region. It's more of an evacuation map than a storm surge map, but serves the same purpose as evacuations here ar ebased upon predicted storm surge. Note that the blank spot in NW Wakulla County is due to the fact that no one lives there - it's all forest - as opposed to no impacts.

The map is at: http://lcso.leonfl.org/guide2004/images/evac_map2.gif

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:11 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Anyone have a link to some detailed storm surge potential maps for the Tampa Bay area? The one posted earlier is pretty vague. I am wondering what the surge would be like in a cat 3 here on the barrier islands.

Charlie is a bit of a worry for us in Pinellas County because the shear over us has been directly east for days now and doesn't look to be going anywhere soon. We are concerned he might get caught up in that shear and take a hard turn east right into us (which is not to common I should say).

Ideas?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:13 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

2 Systems=2 landfalls, most likely will happen, but most likely not in the same area. First with bonnie, recon continues to show a tight compact system and dry air to its west. A trough coming down thru Texas and La will begin to nudge the system in maybe a small loop to the N then ENE to back NE as it starts to move quicker Thursday. I dont expect Bonnie to go more W then.2 or 3 this afternoon then start to turn later tonight into weds. Winds with her now are near 60mph. Again this could just as well weaken since this is a very small system. I dont think that will happen as the exhaust to the ne from Bonnie will provide nice outlfow on her eastern flank. The trough will cause the NE general motion and when a system moves with the direction of the upper winds ,generally it will not inhibit strengthning. Its like walking thru a stream. Bonnie will be walking though with the stream current. I think this could be close to or just above hurricane strength. Hardest forcast right now is where. It could be from Cedar Key (yes that far east) to Mobile. The next bigger trough later in the week into the weekend will have a affect of Charley.
Charley looks awesome with a almost perfect outflow pattern over the last 12-24 hours. The TS are near the center and pressure continues to slowly fall as forcasted. A more gradual strengthning process should start Thursday night with a slowing in speed. The speed should actually start slowing down in speed on weds evening. Now the major topic on this isnt really the strength as we all see this from 80mph to as high as 125mph by the weekend. Points are of landfalls. Right now its a wait and see on where Charley will be to the strong trough over the eastern U.S. Friday thru the weekend. As of 12pm eastern right now I disagree with the placement of the position of Charley already. I have him at 14.4N and 69.1 W. The center is clearly on the NW edge of the CDO and SE of a nice band to its N and NW. I expect the TS to wrap into the system and this will continue to get better looking. Models are split with the system, I will disagree with JB on the path of this right now as he and the Ukmet,Nogaps keep Bonnie more S and move it thru the Yucitan and towards Mexico(Nogaps) and Texas (Ukemet). Here is my disagreement, for 1 they dont initallize Charley that well, and keep it open til it gets w of Jamaica(already wrong). Also with the initialation of the wave it keeps it around 15 N to 77W cause it shows a open wave or weak low(as we all know its not). Weaker systems of waves generally move with the lowlevel flow and stronger system moves with the mid level flow and feel the affects more from upper disturbances or troughs in the atmosphere. Now the GFS takes Charley up across Cuba and parelles it to western florida up to the Big Bend area. I will agree with this for it has a better handle on the system but I wont say this will be the land fall spot. Too early to make a 4-5 day landfall forecast spot. Also to note with the center probably going to be relocated more N were i see it most of the models will tend more N also, but nogaps and Ukmet need to initialize Charley better or they will continue to move this w. Anyways with a current more adjust NW position, I feel this will keep charley very close to Jamaica and possibly making Landfall there Weds evening. A turn near the Ise of Youth to the N will make Key West a threat but I think it will stay to the west of Key west(not good for them cause worse weather generally if further reaching to the E of a system) and move up N close to and along the GFS path. Again to early to call a forcast landfall in florida. Also to note as i posted yesterday, If Charley slows down enough over the weekend and the trough moves out, then charley could meander and drift w or wnw towards the n central gulf beginning of next week, wayyyy to early to even call. On bonnie I expect hurricane watches to go up tongiht for the Mobile- Panama beach area if it gets better orgainzide later today thru this evening and Hurricane watches for Jamaica later tonight. At least there should be!!! scottsvb

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:17 PM

Re: Cantore?

A thought.

Bonnie is forecast to be accelerating NE in the 4 day time frame or so. Tropical cyclones interacting with midlatitude boundaries can often leave behind a boundary of their own - or at least keep the one that recurved it around for awhile. We saw this with the trailing bands from Alex & the front it got caught by, for instance.

With this boundary in place and another forecast to be diving southward, I'm not sure I can see the western GoM in too much peril from Charley unless it remains a relatively weak system - in which case it doesn't react to the steering flow and continues WNW-bound. Charley is expected to be in the NW Carib./SE GoM around the 4-5 day time frame and, assuming at least a moderate tropical storm by then, would tend to get caught up and recurve.

How much and when are still yet to be determined. But, as the NHC noted, there is good consistency out to 72hr amongst the models - which all performed well with Isabel on track last year - but they diverge at later times. The models that keep it weaker trend west, the models that develop it trend east. The NHC is going with the latter and I tend to agree. But again, it's so far out that things can (and probably will) change, so these are just my thoughts for now.

This whole pattern is more reminiscent of October than August, at least it seems.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:19 PM

Tampa

This is from Hurricanecity. Stats for Tampa.

For a storm surge map, scroll to the bottom of the page and highlight "map1". There's other good info too.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:22 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

I need sleep,, to many sp words, Yawn!.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:28 PM

Bonnie

The center is now partially exposed on the NE side of the convection. It is still moving generally NW to NNW, but looks to be pulling away from the convection. As has been stated earlier, this could weaken as fast as it strengthened.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:50 PM

Re: Bonnie

Considering the resiliency so far from Bonnie, I seriously doubt that she will die in the GOM in the hot part of August. The water vapor loop shows dry air on the west side, but this will close in as the somewhat stalled front and Bonnie rendezvous.

She will become a hurricane, and explode. I think the fact the eye is so small, and that it has never been seen before in a storm this new, is interesting, and might pose a few curves no one has thought of.

It's Charley that will be the widowmaker...a true Gilbert or Andrew in the making.

we shall see.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:53 PM

FSU Superensemble

Had a friend on campus take a look at the FSU Superensemble forecasts. Not sure how recent they are, but I'm guessing it's based off of available 0z and 6z model data.

For Bonnie, it calls for a landfall near Destin on Thursday.

For Charley, it sends it into the central Gulf in 5 days. Think along the lines of the 5am forecast path of Charley from the NHC and you've got it.

We'll see how it changes with the Gulfstream data for Bonnie later, the 6hr raobs going up along the Gulf coast & in Norman and Dallas/Ft. Worth here in the next few minutes, and better initializations of both Bonnie and Charley in the global models.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 04:58 PM

rick...lol

>>> It's Charley that will be the widowmaker...a true Gilbert or Andrew in the making.

And where might the final destination be?

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:00 PM

Cape Verde Season

Has anyone noticed that nice looking wave that exited Afirca?

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:11 PM

Re: Cape Verde Season

That wave off of Africa doesn't look too bad. I wonder whether it is a little far south, though. Meanwhile, there seems to be a flare up of convection occuring near or over Charley's centre. It's small at the moment but maybe it will get bigger.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:14 PM

Other Things of Interest

Usually when we have more than one storm, all the attention gets paid to them. As a question, what else looks promising for the near future?

The TWO mentioned the non-tropical low near Bermuda, but said that development was not likely as it was scooting away quickly and upper level winds were not favorable. Accuweather also mentioned this item in their discussion, but said that it was a potential candidate for development.

There is the wave off Africa and a number of waves on the African continent about to move off.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:16 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

What a busy month this has turned into . I'm glad that I got my weather station up and online for these storms. Stay safe everyone

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:25 PM

Re: Bonnie

Bonnie is ailing...most of the convection on the south and west have seperated, but a new convective core is forming near the center, this happened yesterday too...still no convection north or east, and that is not healthy...even money on it dissapating.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:28 PM

Re: rick...lol

cat 5, Mobile, Al...of course

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:28 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Not a bad synopsis Scott. I see the center at just about 15N....but heading at like 290? The model initializations have to be too far south. He's moving at a good clip though. Wonder when he will really slow down. I could see this crossing the peninsula at like Sarasota, but if its moving that fast it will make more ehadway into the GOM. If it gonna hit Florida south/central it would have to slow down tomorrow morning. If not, could be in the big bend. But its not going to avoid the trough.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:29 PM

Re: Blank spot on the map!?

Hey Clark-

It is not due to the fact that no one lives there (or the St. Marks NWR would be blank too....

btw--I know quite a few folks who do live there. It is blank because there is no SS in that area of Wakulla.

fyi.

sc

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:31 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Nogaps 12z run now initializes Charley better and now takes it right into western florida from Ft Myers-Bigbend area in 96hours. 180dg turn around from 00oz run which had it going thru Yucitan and then to Mexico mainland. scottsvb

clyde w.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:35 PM

Hurricane "Clyde"

LMAO!

A Hurricane Clyde hitting Florida could only be comparable to a Hurricane Rick hitting Mobile!!

Sent a couple of PM's to say I'm on IR this season-- no real PC access until October

But I read when I can--and this is a great time to sneak on at work--miss everyone!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:35 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

That NT low is the one I picked up on the other day, looks too sheared for now , wave off Africa looks good....

sc

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:36 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

What changes in the variables might have caused this 180 degree turn?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:37 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

:? I have a few questions that someone might be able to help me with. This first trough that is supposed to turn Bonnie towards the north, will it be strong enough, or weaken once it makes it to the gulf and create a little more shear and keep her moving NW? Secondly the big front coming down in a couple of days, that is supposed to sweep her up and out and pick charley up towards the NNE. What if it slows down or is not as strong as forecasted? What if Charley is a lot stronger by the time he reaches the gulf and kind of creates his own environment over him? Would that jst keep him moving to the WNW or NW? Thanks for your info. :?:

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:42 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

when will the nhc issue any warnings on bonnie? t v said they may go up tonight. anyone have any info?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:44 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Quote:

Nogaps 12z run now initializes Charley better and now takes it right into western florida from Ft Myers-Bigbend area in 96hours. 180dg turn around from 00oz run which had it going thru Yucitan and then to Mexico mainland. scottsvb

A model flip flopping....I cant believe it.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:47 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

Probably see watches/warnings posted tonight... my best guess.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

first for the gentleman asking about the 180dg turn around question is what i posted on last page. The nogaps didnt initialize the low that well and saw it as a open wave. Now that it has it, it will take Charley with the mid level pattern.
Charley will not cause its own enviroment, that is a false opinion in my book but others do beleive its true. Remember floyd was soo huge and powerfull but then ran into a strong eastern U.S. trough and pulled it NNW and weakend it down some with the sw shear. Mitch was simular, ran into a upper ridge to its Nw and moved W then SW even Briefly SSW till the pattern over the southern U.S. changed causeing the Yucitan ridge to move to the the Fl straits and then moving then inland mitch (T.S.) NW into the BoC.Then mitch felt the trough that pushed the ridge to the straits and moved Mitch Ne to and thru Sw florida.
Anyways with Charley, nothing is set. Still models will shift some but are coming in better argreement in Florida (area) as I see it. AVN (which I go by alot) somereason doesnt want to give Charley recognition, probably cause of bad feedback problems. Wait for the 18z and 00z runs tonight to see what it does again. GFDL changes every other run, I dont go by that in general. But its not always overdone in intensity as is usually the ships model.
So will the trough take charley, ,I think so cause it will be strong but where the turn and how much and if it leaves him behind in the SE gulf remains to be seen, but since models show a continued brisk pace, Charley looks good on crossing Cuba to the Se Gulf. scottsvb

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:50 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

that'll mean the schools will be closed tomorrow..plus if its hurrican warning they shut down booze sellin

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:54 PM

bonnie

she's having problems with shear and maintaining her growth so far and to say a system like this couldn't fall apart in August because its over warm water is like saying just cause a cute girl goes to a school dance wearing all the right clothes..she won't stand there all night with no one to dance with. She might be in the right place but you know how you can't get a horse to drink water even if you lead it to the creek

never say never, especially with Bonnie..I find her to be not reliable of furfilling people's expectations and more of a talker than a doer

IF she stays small.. a big IF... it will be easier for her to be GRABBED by the trof and pulled east and it will be harder for her to fight the shear.. There isn't much to hold onto and she will get tired real soon of fighting unless the conditions change fast

also..

Lets say she hangs in there and struggles ne eventually and ends up in the Eastern part of the Gulf vs La to Tx... well that scenario you showed with the big moisture tail will only work if she becomes a bit wet storm like Alex ended up doing. If she stays a small tightly wound storm w/o much moisture she will merge with some trough (probably one thats been overamplified by the models) and create more of a twister danger than a rainmaker.. reference some previous tropical storm that created a swath of twisters across Central florida.

Some leave rain, some make twisters and some do both

What will Bonnie do ultimately.. hmmmmn, good question.

going to go obsess now some over Charley

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:55 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

I would not count on school being closed just yet... the second thing is part of a well stocked hurricane kit

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:56 PM

ps..re: charley

Wouldn't trust any model output until the planes give an exact fix to the center of the storm. With that done.. run the models again and then we can all prophesize disaster.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 05:59 PM

No booze?

>>> plus if its hurrican warning they shut down booze sellin

Really? Not up here! That's good to know though...have to make sure that's in the kit in case the "big one" comes up north.

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:01 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

LOL Yes it is.. stocked my kit this morning to avoid the crowd.. good thing cause the store was packed. if the warnings go up don't they have to open up shelters? if so all the shelters are schools. also noticed that with the models seem to have landfall moved up about 6 hours. am i right on that? last nite they were saying late morning now it is early morning.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:04 PM

Re: Other Things of Interest

That is up to Bay county if and when they open but yes most are the schools.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:06 PM

bonnie for the moment

Bonnie is going through "pulsing"....fighting the shear, and then re-flaring CDO. I think she is in the middle of re-charging. Wonder, however, what the experts on our board, the HankFranks and Phil, and our other moderators thiink about Bonnie.

Any of you of the opinion she will dissipate?...

I no longer believe the Florida panhandle scenario. It seems too far to the east, though I only have a gut feel that the front isn't strong enough to whip it over there in time. The tables will be set for Bonnie in about 12 hours.

What about the small eye?....any one have a good understanding of whether that implies greater resiliency to drier air or not?....

Bonnie will continue to be unpredictable....

Charley will be in the gulf by Friday, and in Mobile early next week....

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:07 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Poor initialization maybe. .Also new data helps quite a bit.. Its not uncommon for these models to fluctuate especially this far out..

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:08 PM

Other Loops of Interest

Take a look at this loop. I find it amazing if you study it.

Looks to me like the infamous trough is already trying to grab Charley and ignoring Bonnie. Not saying Charley will lift NW suddenly but its trying to grab it.. doesnt seem to be doing much for Bonnie.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

ps..u can see many influences on this site that are invisible on other sites

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:14 PM

Re: bonnie for the moment

>>> Wonder, however, what the experts on our board, the HankFranks and Phil, and our other moderators thiink about Bonnie.

Excuse me, did you just call me an "expert"? LOL! I'm slowly learning, yes, but an expert? Heh. No, I couldn't make any more than a half-as--ed guess. Maybe the Rabbit could tell you...he must be back in his burrow for now.

I'll say, PCB, winds 85 kts, Thursday morning at 7:42. How's that?

BTW, SSD is awfully slow getting the Dvorak's out

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:26 PM

Re: bonnie for the moment

A part of the AFD from Tally....

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...FORECAST WILL BE
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL. BONNIE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO LIFT TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATING WEDNESDAY AS DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD
OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. LATEST PROJECTED LANDFALL
IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z THURSDAY AS A
MINIMAL HURRICANE. WATCHES MAY BE POSTED FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES ON THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. GRID POPS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH LATEST MOS POPS WHICH ARE IN THE
LIKELY RANGE. BONNIE CONTINUES TO PULL TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A FRONT ENTERING AND CUTTING MIDWAY ACROSS OUR CWA BY 12Z
FRI.

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:30 PM

Re: Other Loops of Interest

There is a forming low east of North Florida looking at the IR it maybe pulling Charley more to the north, wait and see what Recon Finds.

Dave

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:35 PM

Re: bonnie for the moment

Air Recon: Bonnie not as storng this afternoon.
000
URNT12 KNHC 101728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1728Z
B. 24 DEG 25 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1470 M
D. 40 KT
E. 055 DEG 13 NM
F. 146 DEG 38 KT
G. 043 DEG 053 NM
H. 1005 MB
I. 18 C/ 1538 M
J. 24 C/ 1539 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 38 KT NE QUAD 1702Z.

Dave

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:39 PM

Re: bonnie for the moment

Saw that... she has her issues and only time will tell!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 06:51 PM

Re: bonnie for the moment

Shes looks more subtropical and unlikely to form into anything .

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:00 PM

Re: TD#3 Upgraded to Tropical Storm Charley

Bonnie appears to be making its move to the northeast !

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:02 PM

does anyone know where the planes are re: charley

???

dont see her making a move til she crosses the line
watching tho

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:08 PM

Bonni

She's not moving NE, the thunderstorms are coming back around her giving her that appearance. Still moving NNW.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:08 PM

PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE

what a day, President Bush (also TWC is sending someone to PCB tonight!). Bush is schedule to be Panama City this afternoon..... good timin... he can tour before and after storm damage!!!! looks like there goin to be alot of water in the panhandle in the next 72 hrs+.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:10 PM

Re: Bonni

URNT12 KNHC 101846
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1846Z
B. 24 DEG 28 MIN N
90 DEG 38 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1465 M
D. 35 KT
E. 135 DEG 26 NM
F. 233 DEG 43 KT
G. 135 DEG 012 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/ 1524 M
J. 24 C/ 1507 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:12 PM

Re: recon

URNT11 KNHC 101854
97779 18544 30164 73000 57700 04017 56663 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 13

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:14 PM

Latest GFDL for Charlie

This model has him clipping south FL out to open water and up the East coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/charley03l/fcst/index.html

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:18 PM

Re: Latest GFDL for Charlie

Quote:

This model has him clipping south FL out to open water and up the East coast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/charley03l/fcst/index.html

As long as he doesn't get into the north central gulf I will be happy

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:19 PM

Re: Latest GFDL for Charlie

That's a pretty big clip! uh....what's the intensity? Doesn't look like it will get too strong ifit follows that path.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:21 PM

bonnie!

think bonnie may have jumped to the ne a little in the last few hrs.... storms are coming back on center... recon should have new fix in little bit....
I hear TS watch and possible Hurr Watch might be going up tonight from mobile east to cedar key.....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:25 PM

Re: bonnie!

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA ****25.84 N 89.66 W (25°50'30"N 89°39'30"W)

winds from SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft **here come the swells***

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:27 PM

Charley spluttering?

Looks like Charley may be having a few problems this evening. He's coughed up some outflow boundaries to the NE and NW, whice is not a good sign for significant development. Once this storm begins to slow down, it should start to consolidate some more.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:27 PM

Re: bonnie/charley

URNT11 KNHC 101918
97779 19184 31257 92018 15300 99005 18169 /2536 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 11

URNT11 KNHC 101914
97779 19144 30160 71800 02900 07038 26213 /0009 40635
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 15

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:28 PM

Dvorak's?

Anybody know why SSD still hasn't posted the 1745 UTC T's?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:29 PM

Re: Bonnie spluttering?

URNT14 KNHC 101919
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01236 10896 12542 11810 22031
02237 20898 22538 21712 23033
03239 30900 32530 31716 22031
04241 40902 42523 41817 22029
05243 50904 52510 51817 23037
MF243 M0905 MF043
OBS 01 AT 1822Z
OBS 05 AT 1840Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01246 10908 12496 12018 04033
02248 20910 22518 21817 06018
03250 30912 32524 31916 03017
04251 40914 42529 41813 05019
05253 50916 52531 51815 04015
06255 60918 62534 61815 05011
07257 70920 72534 71716 99005
MF246 M0908 MF033
OBS 01 AT 1849Z
OBS 07 AT 1917Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 99005
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 12

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:30 PM

Re: bonnie/charley

Charley is now experiencing northeasterly shear and outflow boundaries are racing away from the storm.
still not that well organized

Larry

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:33 PM

Re: bonnie!

Agree with Anon - the last frame of this loop seems to show the CDO moving to NNE. If you hold your cursor over the ending position, it does seem to be an actual movement and not an illusion caused by cloud movement. Maybe just a temporary motion, who knows

Gulf visible loop

Larry

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:41 PM

Here we go...

Looks like the majority of west vector is out of Bonnie's current track and she is now "feeling" the 1st trough...and behaving accordingly. After getting knocked down this morning, the shear is now relaxing, and the satellite presentation is really improving over the last few hours. The next 12 hours are going to be very telling. If the shear is relaxing as much as I think it is, some significant strengthening is about to get underway, as per the GFDL, which is doing a very good job with this system. (New Vortex as I type this, winds down, but pressure down to 1004 mb too...).

Things are about to get pretty busy here in the next few hours at my location...I'll be happy to answer as many questions as I can, but will probably limit my commentary to answering questions as time allows...I probably won't have time to do summary posts.

If there is anything I can do to help anyone out, just let me know.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:45 PM

Re: Here we go...

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200402_sat.jpg

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:48 PM

Re: Here we go...

I agree ...Here we go on both systems. The outflow boundaries mentioned earlier for Charley are actually a good thing. these originated from the preceeding band of thunderstorms that may have been inhibiting development of a true CDO. look for the CDO to really improve with both systems soon.

As for the tracks...Will bonnie go north for a while before turning NE??? if so, Mobile to Destin. if not, Destin to Appalachi.

Charley continues a steady pace to the WNW. He will be a major force in the central gulf in a few days.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:53 PM

outflow from the recent past

ok.. bear with me here please as I think its interesting to see what we thought TD2 would do back when.. as I think there are similarities. Also..outflow boundaries are bad but occur for different reasons and can be a sign either way that something is going on..

they say hindsight is 2020 well use it to see what was wrong and what is going on now..

remember the track from td2 and everyone thought it would cut up across cuba somewhere similar to where charley looks to be doing now

so is charley sticking to the old plan or current noaa plan?

(the quiet time is over...stick to the topic)

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 07:56 PM

regarding the the loop..

not sure 100% what is going on but it has lifted and cleared South America and that was I believe inhibiting her. When you have a system so large and the bottom half can't form but the northern part is out of control.. its not good.

some ways he looks better, some

where are the planes, what are they saying?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:00 PM

Re: Here we go...

maybe now we will dispense with the dissipating theories and suppositions and get to the real crux of the matter.

appreciate the post by Jason Kelly..

hopefully Bonnie won't get too nasty. However, anyone who knows the gulf of Mexico storms, and the tight eye of this one...and taking into consideration all that has been said...

maybe stronger than a cat 2 is possible?

whatya'llthankaboutthat?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:03 PM

Re: Here we go...

Quote:

maybe stronger than a cat 2 is possible?

whatya'llthankaboutthat?

Man I don't want an Opal type situation.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:07 PM

Re: Here we go...

>>> maybe stronger than a cat 2 is possible?

>>> whatya'llthankaboutthat?

I thank we need to get serious (did I just say that). Geez the Rabbit dissipates every system and you send them toward Mobile as CAT Vs. I suppose it is entirely possible, given the right circumstances and the temp of the Gulf, strengthening above a II is possible. Lets hope not. Jason's wearing the bullseye so far, so we should probably listen to him. Whatever happens, though, this is starting to get serious...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:13 PM

Re: Here we go...

I'm not one to make everyone nervous...just aware. BY NO MEANS, living on a trawler at Dog River, in Mobile Bay, am I hoping this thing hits Mobile as anything more than a nasty 40 mph squall. However, since I am in a vulnerable position, I don't have a lot of time to decide to head up the river, or ride it out. Hence, my feelings that as long as any scenario is possible, plan for the worst, and hope for the best. My gut feeling is that, yes, it is quite possible the storm could explode to a cat 3, but was hoping for the "experts" to validate my worst nightmarish possiblities.

time will tell......

Perhaps I will be positioned inland a few miles.....on top of an oak tree. we shall see....

summercyclone

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:14 PM

Re: Bonni

Looks like Bonnie has fluctuated but in the most recent pics and obs, seems to be coming back and basically stationary or moving Nward.

sc

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:16 PM

Charley

last recon reports pressure down to 999, max flt winds 42k

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:17 PM

Re: regarding the the loop..

URNT12 KNHC 101947
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/1947Z
B. 15 DEG 11 MIN N
70 DEG 27 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 303 DEG 92 NM
F. 068 DEG 42 KT
G. 302 DEG 084 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 25 C/ 292 M
J. 26 C/ 287 M
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 /01
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 42 KT NW QUAD 1917Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

Bill

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:26 PM

Re: regarding the the loop..

This was what I was worried about...we COULD be seeing the beginning of rapid intensifcation.

Can Bonnie get to Cat 3? Yes. Will it? Maybe. Will it be at landfall? Doubtful...the end of the track will be marked with some significant SW shear at landfall, so Bonnie may weaken a bit right before landfall. BUT...

If you live on the Northern Gulf Coast, take this very seriously. Finish your preparations as soon as possible. Even if Bonnie falls apart, we still have Charley to deal with possibly in 5 days.

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:28 PM

Jason K

latest models trend Charley off the east coast. Do you think this is an error that will correct itself with the new data?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:29 PM

running away

it looks like the LLCC is running away from the convection lookls like its heading NNE

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:30 PM

Re: regarding the the loop..

URNT11 KNHC 102001
97779 20014 31237 91608 15400 30023 17169 /2527 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 13

URNT11 KNHC 102019
97779 20194 30140 71700 03500 08018 24233 /0007 40615
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 17

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:34 PM

Re: regarding the the loop..

Bonnie is down to 45kts in this advisory, but it is still forecast to become a 70kt hurricane before landfall.

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:36 PM

Re: regarding the the loop..

I remember Opal getting up there in intensity just to be weakened by SW sheer and dropped in intensity before landfall.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:37 PM

Re: Jason K

We NEED the G-IV data before I start believing anything that the models say about Charley...I'll reserve comment until then.

However, the GFDL is looking really good right now with Bonnie...Your Mileage May Vary....

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:39 PM

Re: Jason K

I have faith in the models only within 48 hours of targeted landfall but I always have faith in guys like you, Jason from the getgo!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:40 PM

ReCHARLIE

I don't want to downplay this system but I do remember a similar scenario when the tropical storm was speeding along the carribean and suppose to be a hurricane and ended up an open wave. If Charlie doesn't slow down soon the same scenario could happen.

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:43 PM

Re: Jason K

Thanks for posting on these boards JK.

Quiet time and joke time are over. Listen to what JK says, he's the pro.

Most of you guys/gals have made great posts and kept on topic. That will make my job easier and Ed's and HF's too. For the most part the anons made good posts too, though there are a couple who made EXCELLENT posts -- wish they'd id themselves in some way.

We have a potentially very serious 48-72 hours ahead, so heed the preparation advice and know your evac routes. Let's hope that's not necessary (although I know a few on this board would welcome a CAT III in their backyard...most of us wouldn't).

Keep up the great posts folks

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:45 PM

Re: Jason K

URNT12 KNHC 102026
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2026Z
B. 24 DEG 35 MIN N
90 DEG 34 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1455 M
D. 25 KT
E. 241 DEG 17 NM
F. 324 DEG 34 KT
G. 246 DEG 014 NM
H. 1003 MB
I. 18 C/ 1543 M
J. 24 C/ 1535 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:51 PM

Re: Jason K

URNT14 KNHC 102034
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01160 10718 10010 12622 07039
02158 20716 20008 22523 06036
03156 30714 30008 32523 05034
04155 40712 40007 42623 04033
05152 50710 50007 52422 04030
06151 60707 60006 62323 36029
MF159 M0717 MF042
OBS 01 AT 1915Z
OBS 06 AT 1942Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 06035
01150 10707 10005 12323 32012
02148 20708 20006 22422 99005
03146 30710 30008 32523 06010
04145 40712 40008 42522 05015
05143 50714 50009 52423 06015
06141 60716 60008 62522 07019
07140 70717 70007 72423 09021
MF140 M0717 MF021
OBS 01 AT 1954Z
OBS 07 AT 2019Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 06015
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 18

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:52 PM

Re: Jason K

Charley is up to 45kts. I thought he looked weaker. Satellite appearance really isn't everything with these systems.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:53 PM

10 mile eye makes me wonder

Does anyone have any recon info lately on the size of the eye on Bonnie? In my opinion, this small 10 mile dia. eye (if it still is)...would seem to play a role in how compact and fast the winds can get. I say this because Andrew was a little buzz-saw. Not large in overall size, but packed a wallop....you know....a category 4 by the hurricane center, that was later upgraded to a 5....

This small eye on Bonnie...has NEVER happened before in this particular stage of development...which lends me to wonder....

any comments? ideas?......

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:53 PM

Re: RECON

NOTICE DATA IN AT 15.9 71.7 42 KTS?

MF159 M0717 MF042
OBS 01 AT 1915Z
OBS 06 AT 1942Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 06035

MF140 M0717 MF021
OBS 01 AT 1954Z
OBS 07 AT 2019Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 06015
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 18

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:55 PM

TURNING ON CUE

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/05. THE LAST TWO RECON POSITIONS
INDICATE BONNIE HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG EXPECTED TURN TO THE
NORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SUBSEQUENT
SATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THIS MOTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT
EAST OF DUE NORTH MOTION. THIS NEW MOTION IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT
OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
JUST AN EXTENSION AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BONNIE
SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24-30
HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 08:59 PM

Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder

rickonboat - the last 4 vortex messages from Bonnie no longer indicate an eye feature, leading me to believe that it was more of a transient feature yesterday than something signaling a period of intense strengthening to come. It could still happen, but I don't think it'll be quick.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:00 PM

GOES Rapid Scan

Looks like that NOAA has switched GOES-12 into rapid scan mode for Bonnie...getting some good imagery right now...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:03 PM

Re: TURNING ON CUE

Sorry to post on a Bonnie thread, but is Charley collapsing!! Not looking too organized at the moment....looking ill in fact. Maybe he found out he was going to Florida and didn't want to pay the impact fee!!

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:04 PM

Latest Vortex...

Interesting that the winds are down, but the pressure is down as well...some real conflicting signals there...interesting stuff going on...

Larry

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:11 PM

Re: Here we go...

Jason, thanks taking time to post during crunch time!

Phil has a very good point about being prepared. Alex caught a lot of people off guard on the NC outer banks by spinning up at the last moment!

Larry

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:12 PM

Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder

Bonnie has left some stroms and is now exposed to the north, but in the last hr....new storms on nnw side are flaring up.... i have noticed too that the banding from low level looks better in last few hours.... looks like shear to north and east is starting to die off ..... i think we are about to see her explode to night.... something that has caught my eye, the "weak" front over northern gulf coast still has that low level swirl near mobile, which is enhancing shower activity near the panhandle, and i think it will have an effect on bonnie soon.... could it be that the north movement now played in part because of it? or the front got to gulf sooner?

texasone

(Registered User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:14 PM

Re: Here we go...

Anyone think Texas could feel anything from these two storms?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:15 PM

recon

URNT14 KNHC 102101
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01237 10916 12528 11816 30024
02239 20914 22524 21716 31027
03241 30912 32520 31816 31031
04242 40910 42512 41717 30029
05245 50908 52499 51917 31034
MF245 M0908 MF034
OBS 01 AT 2002Z
OBS 05 AT 2020Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01248 10904 12490 12018 14031
02249 20902 22510 21817 16022
03251 30900 32520 31716 15021
04253 40898 42525 41716 16022
05254 50896 52529 51616 17022
06256 60894 62531 61715 18018
07258 70892 72534 71716 19016
MF247 M0904 MF034
OBS 01 AT 2030Z
OBS 07 AT 2056Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 99005
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 18

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:20 PM

Re: GOES Rapid Scan

New to the board, but it appears on the latest visible loop that perhaps the low level circulation of Bonnie is migrating slightly east of north while a mid level circulation? is departing to the west. Does anyone else see this or is this just a factor of shear blowing cloud tops to the west. It does appear though that there is circulation to the westward moving activity. Visible loop

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:22 PM

Texasone

Welcome aboard!

>>> Anyone think Texas could feel anything from these two storms?

The models are trending against it, certainly not from Bonnie, but Charley is another story. Earlier this morning JB (Joe Bastardi, weather god from accuwx) was calling for a Texas hit with Charley. However, each and every model run has been trending Charley further and further east. The best advice is watch TWC, stay prepared, and make sure you have some hooch in your prep kit, as I learned earlier on today.

Seriously, though, you probably don't have anything to worry about but Charley's still a long ways off...

BTW, I notice you live in Beaumont. Here's an excellent resource if you don't already have it:

Golden Triangle Weather

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:27 PM

Re:Bonnie

Yeah Anon, I've been watching the last couple of hours and trying to figure out whats going on with Bonnie. Recon would seem to indicate a slow drift off to the N or NNE, but visual sat loops seem to show either the circulation is elongated SW-NE or maybe that is a MLC southwest of the LLC which is plainly visible although it seems to be a little distorted in the last shot.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:29 PM

Charley track

Not saying that the current forecasting models will stick to their solutions, but the new NHC track REALLY opened my eyes here in C. Florida. A 100 mile per hour hurricane with a large circulation passing to the west would put the Central Florida Peninsula in a position for problems. Not trying to the jump the gun as the track could shift again very easily. Floridians really need to start paying attention to local weather reports if the track forecast from NHC persists during the next 24-36 hours.

The center did jump to the northwest today...from 14.5 at 2PM to 15.2 now. This jump could end up making the difference.

ErinAndOpal95

(Verified CFHC User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:29 PM

Does Charlie have an eye starting?

It's startimg to get optical (an eye is forming)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:31 PM

Re: Charley track

That would be north Kevin.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:31 PM

Re: 10 mile eye makes me wonder

I entirely forgot about the low here in Mobile, and the effects it will have on Bonnie. Is there any reason for me to be concerned that this has a chance of coming this way?...most are thinking even more of an eastern shift...bringing Bonnie inland 150 miles or so east of me.

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:32 PM

Re:Bonnie

When you look at this loop..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

Bonnie looks like shes rapidly going poof. Looks can be deceiving though guess we will see what happens tonight.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:33 PM

Re: GOES Rapid Scan

maybe a nne jog or swirl. mid and upper from this morning is fading and drifting to sw.... something of note. All day winds off southern LA were around (from) 260 and light, in last few hrs, they appear and waiting on bouy data to confirm have changed to ne. This flow is far from center, but could mean weaker low level direction shear ahead of storrm....upper level winds are somewhat screaming to east.... this could weaken bonnie overnight, but with 87 water temp and darkness approaching is usually when shear dies off, which i think could bring her back to life.....

also in latest sat shot ..... strms are coming back on south side of her center

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:34 PM

Re: Charley track

Hey guys,
Kevin, i noticed the potential problems for the Florida west coast too. With Bonnie expected to landfall in two days somewhere along the upper west coast or panhandle, Charley could be making an appearance in the same general area at the end of the weekend. Certainly something that anyone in that area should watch closely.

Its surprising that, when you look at the sat pics, Bonnie looks really nothing much, and Charley looks like he's the man. Yet, Bonnie is still the stronger of the two!

Anyways, just my thoughts

texasone

(Registered User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:34 PM

Re: Texasone

Thanks for the warm welcome LI Phil! If I've learned anything living on the coast, it's "don't count your chickens..."! All I can say is I'll be prepared here in Beaumont.

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:38 PM

Re: Texasone

Check out the intense convection firing up near the centre of Charley. He seems to be slowly pulling himself together.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:45 PM

Re:Bonnie

URNT11 KNHC 102136
97779 21364 31260 91910 15200 02013 18169 /2525 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 19

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:47 PM

Re:Bonnie

pretty neat lookin.... doesn't appear to be nothin

cool NRL shot

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:50 PM

Re: Charley track

URNT12 KNHC 102122
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2122Z
B. 15 DEG 16 MIN N
70 DEG 58 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 140 DEG 020 NM
F. 189 DEG 40 KT
G. 142 DEG 014 NM
H. EXTRAP 999 MB
I. 25 C/ 332 M
J. 25 C/ 326 M
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1234 /01
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 20
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 2117Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:51 PM

TWC coverage

According to my friend at The Weather Channel, they are only sending Jim Cantore to Bonnie. He'll be in Panama City later today. They may send others out down the line, but for now, Jim's the guy.

So, as the joke here at work went today, go about 100mi away from PC and you have the landfall spot! In all seriousness though, somewhere +/- 25mi from Panama City is looking like a fairly good bet right now. Intensity is another factor entirely, however.

Of note on the latest visible satellite imagery - if only we had it for another 6 hours today! - is that the center looks to be reforming significantly further to the SW, somewhere near 23.5/91.5. It could be an illusion from a mid-level swirl, but I think the LLC is reforming there, under the deep convection, as well.

Give it about 6-12 hr to play out and let's see what happens.

Charley looks like he's trying to consolidate, but the forward speed keeps hampering things. Slow it down to 20mph and it gets it's act together quickly; keep it at this rate and it'll take some time. Don't see any reason to argue with the NHC forecast, position or intensity wise, this far out.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:51 PM

Re: Charley track

H. EXTRAP 999 MB/?????

could be stronger? but winds looks weak.... some weird stuff

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:52 PM

Re: Here we go...

Quote:

The outflow boundaries mentioned earlier for Charley are actually a good thing. these originated from the preceeding band of thunderstorms that may have been inhibiting development of a true CDO.

You seem to be right about Charley; it is becomming more circular in appearance and the shear from earlier is now replaced with good upper-air divergence for the most part, and there is just another 24 hours until it is out of the "graveyard" and I can not really find anything that was not related to a front (such as TD10 in 1994) that has dissipated in the western Caribbean north of 15 degrees.
Charley vis

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:54 PM

Re: TWC coverage

Clark, thanks for the info...

>>> According to my friend at The Weather Channel, they are only sending Jim Cantore to Bonnie. He'll be in Panama City later today. They may send others out down the line, but for now, Jim's the guy.

So, as the joke here at work went today, go about 100mi away from PC and you have the landfall spot! In all seriousness though, somewhere +/- 25mi from Panama City is looking like a fairly good bet right now. Intensity is another factor entirely, however.

Except for Floyd in '99. He was Florida's SHIELD then. O'course he came up to LI and sent Floyd to me.

52255225

(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:57 PM

Re: Here we go...

According to the latest track I doubt it.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 09:58 PM

Re: Here we go...

I'm thinking that Charley's track will be significantly left of the NHC's forecast; I've noticed that track biases tend to be consistent. In that case, in the most radical extreme it may miss FL altogether. In any event, I think land interaction will prevent it from becoming a major hurricane for the near term.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:05 PM

Re: Here we go...

URNT11 KNHC 102153
97779 21534 30165 69700 03700 11021 24228 /0010 41025
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 21

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:08 PM

Re: Here we go...

URNT14 KNHC 102158
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01142 10699 10009 12623 14031
02144 20701 20009 22623 14039
03145 30703 30008 32523 15037
04147 40705 40007 42523 16037
05149 50707 50006 52423 17030
06151 60708 60004 62423 20036
MF151 M0708 MF040
OBS 01 AT 2057Z
OBS 06 AT 2117Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 13025
01155 10708 10005 12323 12060
02156 20706 20008 22322 11046
03158 30704 30009 32321 12039
04160 40702 40009 42521 11032
05162 50701 50010 52521 12026
06163 60699 60010 62422 11021
07165 70697 70010 72422 12023
MF154 M0709 MF072
OBS 01 AT 2127Z
OBS 07 AT 2153Z
OBS 07 SFC WND 10025
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 22

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:11 PM

Other Tropical Disturbances

Hi. First-time poster. Though I'd jump in with a question. Does anyone see any promise for development in the various tropical waves that have moved off Africa in the last few days?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:19 PM

PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc

just a note. President Bush is now in Panama City Fl.... he just arrived via bus from Destin..... Tyn AFB is a hurrcane status 4

oh yeah looks like bonnie is on her way!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:26 PM

Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_03L.CHARLEY_ssmi_ir1km_full.html

yeah...thats the biggest "oh my gosh" ive had all day

came back from dinner with thoughts that charley was ill and seems he is exploding.. doing well.. wow..

wish the planes were in there now, don't ya?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:32 PM

Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?

URNT11 KNHC 102224
97779 22244 30167 67708 58500 13023 57603 /4588
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 23

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:37 PM

bring bacck bonnie

URNT12 KNHC 102217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2217Z
B. 24 DEG 42 MIN N
90 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1454 M
D. 25 KT
E. 322 DEG 16 NM
F. 051 DEG 32 KT
G. 323 DEG 013 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 19 C/ 1524 M
J. 24 C/ 1521 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 20
MAX FL WIND 43 KT SE QUAD 1842Z.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 10:52 PM

Re: bring bacck bonnie

URNT11 KNHC 102239
97779 22394 30238 89500 15300 23014 17128 /2526 49905
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 23

URNT11 KNHC 102244
97779 22444 30172 66100 58400 07010 58692 /4590
RMK AF966 0103A CHARLEY OB 24. LAS REPORT

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:00 PM

Re: bring bacck bonnie

Be careful what you wish for.

Bonnie may be nothing compared to Charley. And that's not good. Huge flareup just occurring with Charley, usually a sign of strengthening (OK, so I got that from TWC). Still, not a good sign. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Charley within 24 hours...then again, I like my crow the same way as frank p.

I've gained 20 pounds this hurricane season on the anti-Atkins crow diet.

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:01 PM

Re: PRESIDENT N PANHANDLE pc

I saw the President here in Pensacola today. It was awesome!

As for Bonnie, I think we're in for a surprise with her. As the shear continues to die down, I think we'll see some strengthening and expanding of Bonnie!

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:14 PM

Bush and Bonnie...

Pres is speaking right now at the PC Marina....

Bonnie is a ball of contradictions...pressures are pretty low, structures are pretty good, but convection can't stay sustained for very long. It looks like it could collapse at any point, and it at the same time looks like it could deepen rapidly at any point as well.

This one is keeping us on our toes.

I've been sort of myopic on Bonnie, cause it is the more immediate threat. If Charlie would slow down, Katy Bar the Door....but at this rate of speed it is rather impressive that it has developed as much as it has. The more eastward track (or more correctly that the NHC bit on it) isn't something that I would cling onto just yet....wait for the Gulfstream 4 data and we will get a much better picture of what is going on.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:20 PM

Preparations - West Coast Florida Lag

A few have posted about the potential for damages along the west coast of Florida if a Cat 2 or larger hit and they are highly accurate. Not only does this area not have any experience with significant storms, most are recent transplants and have absolutely no clue.

Interestingly, few are taking any early precautions here. Home Depot closest to the beach was almost empty this eve as I went in to grab 50 bags of sand and 100 sand bags from the brand new display. Sure, might be early - but if nothing else, my child ends up with a sandbox to die for with the plywood, sand, and 2x6's I purchased if nothing happens.

Since I have weathered 2 storms here over the last 30 years, I realize few will make any moves until it is too late. And, that is why the potential for damage in this area will be so severe.

I urge folks from Ft. Meyers north to start thinking pro-actively about securing your property. Sure, in 3 days anything can happen.. but if it doesn't change and we see only 100 mph winds here, there will be much flooding and wind damage.. much, much more than folks think. These 50's homes (that mostly sit at 3 1/2' above sea level) haven't seen 100 mph winds since the 70's when many roofs were laying in the bay.

Here is to early prep (picking up a Corona knowing I am ready)!

PFSThunder

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:22 PM

Re: Does Charlie have an eye starting?

The last three images on the GOES 12 IR show the CDO forming a round formation, moving NNW and showing signs of strength. Stock up on the beverages in Florida. Jamaica vacations may about to be ruined being next in line.

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:22 PM

Re: Bush and Bonnie...

when do you expect to see the gulfstream data Jason (or any other data that could significantly change predictions)?

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:24 PM

Re: Bush and Bonnie...

I think a G-4 flight is scheduled for tomorrow, but I haven't had a lot of time to look....

ADDED: Now I have...for Tomorrow..

FLIGHT THREE -ADDED
A. 12/0000Z
B. NOAA9 0503A CHARLEY
C. 12/1730Z
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT

(User)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:27 PM

Recon

Three flights each for tomorrow...

recon

JK, you're fast...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:29 PM

bonnie landfall

If Bonnie's direction is NNW, it would appear that there is still a possibility of a more westerly landfall? Anyone think that is possible?...just wondering what I need to do in way of preparation. I don't have a good feel for this storm at all.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:30 PM

Re: Recon

Quote:

JK, you're fast...

Lotsa practice....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:39 PM

hi jason

nah.. Charley is the fastest of all

rarely have i seen a storm look so well on all sats, from any angle or perspective there is one heck of a cdo forming there

so much for worrying about her losing that outflow boundary, was more like a catepillar casting off the cocoon and turning into a red and orange butterfly

unreal
youre doing a great job btw, helps people in the path of danger (lol like everywhere from florida to texas...) to feel better to be able to talk to u

bobbi
wow.. glad they are sending in the gulfstream jet, hope it will be there by daybreak

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:40 PM

FSU Superensemble 18z

The 18z FSU Superensemble forecasts are rather interesting, particularly for Charlie. But, I'll start with Bonnie.

It is expecting landfall pretty much over Panama City in just under 2 days with an intensity just slightly below the official forecase - somewhere around borderline hurricane intensity. No real surprises there.

However, with Charlie, it keeps the storm further offshore than almost every model and, as a consequence, stronger than all but the SHIPS guidance. It brings Charlie up to high-end cat 2 in 96hr with an eventual landfall near Apalachicola (or just slightly east) shortly thereafter. All of the other guidance is further west, clustered towards Cedar Key. But, wait a day or two for the Gulfstream obs - both of the Gulf with Bonnie and the Carib. with Charlie - and see what happens then. There's a little too much run-to-run inconsistency with almost every model for my liking.

Wish recon could've stayed out there a while longer on Charlie to sample around the current flareup, but alas they left right as it started to blossom. It's looking better on the satellite, but it still needs to slow down to intensify at any decent clip. Maybe this flareup suggests it might be doing just that. And Bonnie? I still can't tell if there's a 2nd center forming or not, and we've just lost the daylight & the visible imagery over the region. Expect status quo for another 6hr with this storm as it gets it's act together, then re-evaluate things. The potential is still there...just not yet.

h2ocean

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:40 PM

Re: Preparations - West Coast Florida Lag

I know what you mean...anytime there is a threat here in East-Central FL, everyone waits until the last minute. Apparently there is some sort of "legend" around here that the Cape (Cape Canaveral) keeps storms away from this area. Granted, there has not been a major storm here since the late 1800's (just a few Cat 1 and 2) but that is just luck!

I live in a new subdivision and only 4 out of 112 homes have hurricane shutters (I of course am one out of the 4). The windows used in the houses are rated for 140mph but that is not for impact...so everyone thinks...wow our windows will stand up to 140mph - not!

I selected the heaviest aluminum panels for the doors and windows w/ clear lexan inserts (for weaker storms so I can see outside) and armour screen for may patio.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:43 PM

Re: Recon

Hi All,

I've been living in Orlando, FL since 1988 now and haven't seen much of anything come this way. I am heading out of town Thursday morning through the entire weekend.

I am a little leary about leaving the wife and kiddies at home alone with Charlie hanging around.

I've been monitoring this website for years and would like your opinions. I think I will just have to monitor the situation and make a decision before I leave on Thursday morning.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:43 PM

reading data from noaa!

i just got some data from the noaa flights.... waiting on radar pics from bonnie!

lookin at a 1330 utcc aug graph/picture bonnie is real compact!!!! information based on ships/flights through storm etc..... some interesting stuff!!!!!

(Moderator)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:45 PM

Re: Charley-MSW 65 mph

700
WTNT33 KNHC 102336
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM AST TUE AUG 10 2004

..CHARLEY STRONGER AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD
INCLUDING PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 8 PM AST...0000Z......0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.8
WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 26 MPH
..43 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE
NEARING JAMAICA TOMORROW MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...105 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
..165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:49 PM

Re: Recon

URNT12 KNHC 102304
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2304Z
B. 24 DEG 43 MIN N
90 DEG 31 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1455 M
D. 25 KT
E. 127 DEG 28 NM
F. 209 DEG 35 KT
G. 130 DEG 015 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 19 C/ 1526 M
J. 24 C/ 1521 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/3 NM
P. AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 24
MAX FL WIND 35 KT SE QUAD 2259Z.

URNT11 KNHC 102323
97779 23234 30254 89700 15400 15017 17161 /2520 41315
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 27

URNT11 KNHC 102341
97779 23414 30267 90000 55900 20019 55//1 /4589
RMK AF977 0502A BONNIE OB 28. LAST REPORT

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:52 PM

Station 42001

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA

Conditions at 42001 as of
(5:50 pm CDT)
2250 GMT on 08/10/2004:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
29.89 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:55 PM

Charlie in explosion mode

Charley---amazing it is moving at 26 mph, and actually strengthening. if it slows down, we all know what will happen....

Bonnie---
We're getting 50-60 mph winds right now, as I am typing this, in Mobile...with rain coming down like buckets. I wonder if all this energy is messing with Bonnie, and it's ability to grow. I think this energy and Bonnie are on a collision course, and the little tropical storm will soon pop. Interesting that the dry air between Bonnie and the front is getting smaller and smaller. As soon as they mesh, things will get livelier.

been 50-65 mph winds for the last 10 minutes...unbelievable burst of energy over Mobile right now...bad thunderstorms...

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:57 PM

Re: Station 42001

Quote:

Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.10 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Hmmm, possible sign that Bonnie may go through a period of organization and strengthening?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 10 2004 11:59 PM

Re: here goes bonnie

like i said around noon..... night will fall and bonnie is coming back out to play. Only this time it might get nasty. Storms are exploding over center now..... i think we haven't seen the worse yet. Another recon will be on it way to bonnie soon, and i think they will find some interesting stuff tonight! Bonnie appears to be covering her "eye"/center back up with some strong storms

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:04 AM

Re: Charlie in explosion mode

Rickonboat, I believe you are getting the remains of the Bourbon St. low that was in New Orleans yesterday. Moved off slowly to east this AM.

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:05 AM

Mr. Anon

You've been making some excellent posts, so I'm certainly not going to edit you...you might consider joining CFHC and/or posting with a handle. Makes it easier to attribute who says what. And, during crazy periods, it may become necessary to "close" the boards to only registered users.

All you have to give is your e-mail address, which is kept completely secret (even I couldn't get it if I wanted to).

Consider it.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:08 AM

As If.....

The new track for Charley didn't get my attention immediately...(I almost fell off my chair), when I read the 5pm Discussion, this did:

Quote:

IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE
SPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.
IF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
MAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST

.

I'm still waiting for a few more runs but it isn't as if it was just ONE model, it was generally a consensus. I don't think Charley is sick at all, I think he was getting his act together. If he just grazes the eastern part of Cuba, it will have little effect on Charley.

I think we may be looking at a double whammy on Florida in the next few days. West Central Florida can't take much more water and Charley is a big 'un. We'd also get feeder bans from Bonnie, since we'd be on the right side quadrant of that storm.

Also...I think that latest Recon obsveration of higher winds was coming...you don't normally have a storm with 999mb with winds at 40mph. I think it was just that they hadn't sampled all the quadrants at the time the 5pm advisory was issued. Which is why we have Advisory 6A.

Be prepared, stay calm, and pay attention. I think this might be the first time we can't keep hitting the "snooze button" on the alarm clock.

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:11 AM

two for tuesday

ran across the board today, saw lots of flip-flopping with transient trends (charley is dying, bonnie is strengthening rapidly, etc). wish i could be more concrete here.. but unfortunately, still going to give possibilities and not a specific prediction i'm confident in of on bonnie.. feel just as good or better about charley; bonnie we'll be seeing from first, so here goes.
bonnie is essentially the same storm we had last night. it's small and only throwing spotty deep convection despite a good shear profile.. subsidence abounds in the gulf. i see the possibility that it remains nearly steady or only slowly strengthens, but am entertaining the idea that it will be rapidly intensifying at landfall... for this reason:
bonnie will be traveling ahead of an upper shortwave a'la alex.. over a much higher ocean heat content. the environment will be baroclinic as well.. i'd expect it to stay fairly potent well after landfall as it moves up the east coast. with the very small inner structure the potential for this system to deepen rapidly is a real and present danger. if it can't keep the convection going, though.. it may come ashore as a sickly system like one i remember from 2000.. helene.. or maybe something akin to barry 2001.
charley.. God forbid it forms an eye overnight. i've been erring on the side of strengthening, thus erring on the side of a rightward of the early globals track.. looks like my dice throw will be coming up strong. charley is getting stronger earlier.. and thus the official numbers are likely below what we'll be seeing. there is still great uncertainty, but charley has 'major hurricane event' written all over it. if i was on the gulf side of florida i'd be planning ways to deal with either.
frontal low moving ene between bermuda and jax slowly improving in presentation.. several globals occlude it and weaken the westerlies as a high amplitude ridge develops in response to the approaching eastern shortwave.. may pancake against it and develop tropical characteristics later this week.
as the mean trough position is forecast to shift out of the east next week, pay close heed to wave action in the mdr east of the islands. there is a lazy, dead look to the easterly flow and low shear.. trouble if a wave of any amplitude comes through. even a weak wave can perk up in these conditions.. the upper low near 45-50w should start tailing back and creating a diffluence/ridging zone to its east.. so watch for a response 5-10 deg to it's east over the next few.
possibility for two florida hurricane landfalls exists for the next few days. the ingredients are there, but ingredients have a way of not panning out. regardless, stay aware.
HF 0011z11august

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:19 AM

Re: bonnie

12 hrs ago, based on noaa data, bonnie was a one sided storm. hint the kidney bean structure seen this morning on sat shots. most of ts wind were less than 35 miles front center, mostly on NE and SE quad.
observed surface wind was 51 kts wnds were observed at 1114utc....at 3 nm NE of center....(via GPSSONDE drop)
analyzed max surface winds 50 kts 6 nm NE of center
NOTE *** THIS IS EXPERIMENTAL RESEARCH

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:30 AM

Re: bonnie

Any guess where the watches for Bonnie go up? Mobile to Cedar Key? Im hoping, I need to get out of school tomorrow so I can stay here and track Bonnie with ya'll. By the way, Saw ole George Bush today while at school. Very neat.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:32 AM

Re: bonnie

night time IR

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:40 AM

Re: bourbon st low adding insult to injury

Pre-storm weather.
The bourbon st low dropped enough rain in the Keesler AFB area that one of the rivers (Wolf River) is at flood stage on wednesday. The flood warning was issued at 15z Tuesday.
got life jackets?
Now The Bad News
717 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST...

AT 715 PM CDT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE MAINLY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN HARRISON COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
JACKSON COUNT MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MILES AN HOUR. DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER GULFPORT NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 10 AND OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN
GULFPORT AND GAUTIER. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH 8 PM. IN ADDITION...WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MILES AN HOUR AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS

firestar_1

(Weather Hobbyist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:41 AM

Re: bonnie

bonnie looks intresting. But I really do not like what is going on with sir charles..... check this image out.....http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
I don't think this is looking good for us on the west central coast of florida.

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:47 AM

Sir Charles

It's funny, but not five minutes ago I sent a PM to JK and I used the phrase "Sir Charles." (basketball fan?)

I, too, am not liking the possibilities. Moving at close to 25 mph, surviving the graveyard and STRENGTHENING! The entire GOM, and especially the FLA gulf coast better have their prep kits ready. Don't want to wishcast (quite the contrary) or storm monger, but this could have some serious consequences, and sooner rather than later.

If this puppy gets into the bathtub a/k/a the gom, and slows down...yeesh.

It's still way to early, particularly when Charley isn't even a hurricane (yet), but all y'all better have your kits ready and your car gassed up.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:47 AM

Re: As If.....

OK Colleen, I know a shot at me when I see it!!! But this is dejavu all over again! Yes charles is getting his act together, but when and if does he turn. Closely observe the dvorak. He is not going to cross the eastern portion of Cuba. He actually may strike Jamaica, or at least skirt the north coast of the island. Let's see if he slows before Jamaica....but I doubt it. NHC gives his forward speed, then say this general motion will continue for the next 24 hours.....that was 12 hours ago. Hard to say where he will end up. We will wait for another model run or two to get some validation on track concensus/divergence. Anyhow, I have to go off to fantasy football draft at 10:00!!! It's getting too late for me to be up at midnite! But I guess I'll be up anyhow!!!!!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:49 AM

Re: bonnie

sir charles

should be at or near cat 1 hurricane by next adv. Sat data shows good low level cir under storms... this one could clean out the graveyard in the nxt 24 hrs!

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:56 AM

Re: Charley

00Z Caribbean roundup-Nothing significant at this time.
Aruba reporting 1010mb and winds 080 at 17kts.
TNCA 110000Z 08017KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/25 Q1010

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 12:59 AM

Re: bonnie

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
900 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING BOUNDARY OVER THE CWA...COMBINED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY...WEAK SURFACE LOW & IN-PLACE MOISTURE...HAVE CONTINUED
CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECT ON-GOING CONVECTION TO
PUSH EAST & GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS ENERGY PUSHES EAST. MODELS
CONTINUE SOME LIFT OVERNIGHT ACROSS CWA...& CURRENT FORECAST HAS
CHANCE POPS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT E-NE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH LYING OVER THE CWA. THEN THE INFLUENCE OF BONNIE WILL
SPREAD TROPICAL MOISTURE NE AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES A BIT
FARTHER OVER THE SE U.S. & LIFTS BONNIE NE TOWARD N FL. PLENTY OF
ENERGY INDICATED IN THE MEAN FLOW...SO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
WILL BE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL ALLOW FLOOD WATCH
TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT...BUT WILL PROBABLY BE RE-ISSUED FOR ALL CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE INFLUENCE OF BONNIE'S RAIN AFFECT CWA. EXPECT HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
. COASTAL
FORECAST HAS SOME SWELLS INDICATED AT KPFN BUOY...SO WILL UP SEAS A
BIT FOR OVERNIGHT.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:01 AM

Re: Charley

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200403_5day.gif

Please do NOT place images in the main body of your message...use a URL

I know that it's early but I like the eastward shift

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

{Read the site usage rules...you are welcome to link to your website, but you may not "advertise"}

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:06 AM

Re: bonnie

The newest GFDL has Charlie entering Florida as a 115 mph storm in the Bradenton/Sarasota area and traveling to Jacksonville. This all happens in 78 hours.

Whoa.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:06 AM

Re: bonnie

Lots of interesting discussions around the web today. Bastardi weighed in with an evening post noting that Bonnie was indeed splitting. A piece of the energy was being left behind (ala the circulation to the SW) while the main energy seems to be revving up again. He also isn't giving up on his endgame for Charley, though he acknowledged in post #2 that what the models and NHC are up to is legit. I threw in the towel long before he did. In order for Charley to have been a Mex/Tex threat, it would have had to slow down at some point so that the trof could pick up Bonnie and the ridge could redevelop (as in blocking high) over the Northern Gulf. With Charley still blazing WNW around 25mph, that's probably not going to happen. I like the NHC's idea with a second East Gulf threat.

Hard to say about intensity. Bonnnie is a mystery. She had everything going for her, and as usual, is flaring up again. She's been a PM storm from even back in her TD #2 days. At some point, you'd think that feedback is actually going to ignite something (or else it doesn't). Charlie's been looking like a potential bad boy for a couple of days. He stuck out like a sore thumb when approaching the islands. He's of tropical origin as well. He could turn out to be a beautiful sight before all is said and done. One of these days my kids will be old enough to fend for themselves and I'll be PM'ing some of you no-good suckers for a road-trip party. As always, my door is open to any CFHCers who need to blow out of town but don't want to go to West Virginia or northern Georgia.

Beginning tomorrow night, we could have what is a one in a million scenario - the possibility of 2 canes passing over the same general area within 72-96 hours. Ordiniarilly one is a TS and the other is a cane.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:08 AM

Re: Charley

Dr. Lyons must've been half asleep when he tied his necktie today. I can't blame him - he's all excited about the tropics and I'm sure he was up all night.

Bonnie looks like she's dying. Charley scares me living in W Central Florida. I know it's hard to trust 5 day forecasts, but all the models are tightly clustered. Question is how far it varies.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:10 AM

Re: bonnie

Good Post Steve, Where do you think watches will be posted from? Shouldnt be to much longer before there issued. If Im under a Hurricane Watch in the morning Im staying home from school and football.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:17 AM

charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo

when?

come on gang... you can do it?
when was the last time a storm was a perfect round ball expanding out... getting stronger so fast?

i want names

this is going to be a short post hank

keep seeing it cross cuba ..go thru keys, lower..at 11:30 angle whatever that is and slam into sw coast of florida, keep seeing it but every variation of degree of motion makes a big difference with this fast moving storm

simply speechless beyond that
look at track of japanese typhoon.. wild..

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:35 AM

Re: charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo

Weird...I just got the 11pm Bonnie Disco...anybody else get that already????

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:39 AM

Re: charley.. when was the last time you saw such a round ball over cdo

I saw the same thing on WeatherUnderground. Perhaps they're focusing resources on Charley- that discussion may take a while.

PFSThunder

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:42 AM

Re: bonnie

Odd to get a 2300 discussion at 2130. Many things could happen with Bonnie in this hour and a half.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:42 AM

Re: bonnie

WTNT42 KNHC 110132
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FROM 17 TO 23Z FOUND A MAXIMUM
WIND OF 43 KT AT 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1004 MB. ALSO SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SPUTTERING VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.
THEREFORE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS REDUCED FROM 45 KT TO 40 KT.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TCDAT2.0408110132
36HR VT 12/1200Z 29.8N 86.7W 60 KT
This is due south of Eglin AFB-hundred miles or so.-edit

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:43 AM

Steve Steve Steve

You goof...did ya read my post? LOL...I said that I wanted to see more model runs before I believed that this is the track. I think we've worked together long enough to know that the NHC is usually correct and pretty darned close to their tracks.

The one thing I don't see happening right now is Charley being ripped to shreds.

Good luck on your Fantasy Football League.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:45 AM

Storm Surge Info - Tampa Bay

Something for all to think about:

From the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council --

"Regional studies have quantified the potential impacts of a tropical storm or hurricane making landfall in the region and have highlighted the major concerns for evacuation, shelter and recovery operations. These facts are summarize below:

2) Due to the bathymetry and the configuration of the Bay, the storm surge heights for the Tampa Bay region are significantly higher than the national average (Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale). Surge heights within Tampa Bay can exceed 25-30 feet in a major hurricane strike. (Isadore warnings as a Cat 2 were 8 - 10 feet surges above mean high tide levels)

5) Most of the residents in Tampa Bay live in hurricane vulnerable areas. Based upon the 1992 Evacuation Study Update, the numbers of persons which would evacuate in the following storm scenarios are:

Category 1 911,950
Category 2 1,096,560
Category 3 1,336,630

6) For a major hurricane threat, the shelter demand in the region is estimated between 275,000 - 290,000 persons. The region has the capacity to shelter 218,000 (category 3) and 190,000 (category 5) - a deficit of 57,000 - 98,000 spaces!

7) The clearance times for the Tampa Bay region range from 8 - 17 hours* depending upon the county and strength/track of the storm threat. For major hurricanes, the clearance times
exceed the 12 hours the National Hurricane Center seeks to provide "confident" lead time.

8) If the three counties to the south of Tampa Bay also evacuate, clearance times will increase from minimum of 7.8 hours (category 1) to a maximum of 42.6 hours (category 5).

http://www.tbrpc.org/srpp/Subjects/Emerprep.PDF

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:45 AM

Oooops....

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS

INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS

DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

LAWRENCE

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:46 AM

Re: bonnie

Mark my words.....we haven't seen the end of Bonnie. I think she's got something up her sleave sitting out there in the Gulf. Conditions are about to be ripe....

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:47 AM

Re: bonnie

It was a mistake....

WTNT61 KNHC 110140
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

LAWRENCE
WWWW

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:48 AM

Re: bonnie

Quote:

Mark my words.....we haven't seen the end of Bonnie. I think she's got something up her sleave sitting out there in the Gulf. Conditions are about to be ripe....

I agree Sircane . I think that she will fire back up tomorrow when she enters the low shear zone.

http://www.hardcoreweather.com

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:50 AM

Re: bonnie

Maybe someone hit the "go" button a little too fast on the 11pm discussion for Bonnie. You got to admit, they have a lot on their hands.

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:51 AM

Re: bonnie

First Pete, and now repeat...LOL

Remember, JK is the fastest gun in the southeast

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:51 AM

Re: bonnie

Point of order....she is IN the low shear zone now...

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:52 AM

Re: bonnie

Quote:

Remember, JK is the fastest gun in the southeast

"I'm your huckleberry...."

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:52 AM

Re: bonnie

ROFLOL......OOPS! Well, that's a first for the NHC.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 01:58 AM

Re: bonnie

Just looked at the TW Update. Bonnie looks life a golf ball, and Charley looks like a baseball. A big baseball. It looks as though Charley is making a W-NW track and unless he shifts dramatically to the right, he's not going to hit the mountains in Cuba. He may go OVER the northern end of Cuba but I think he'd have to start going NW to hit the middle.

Dr. Steve Lyons deserves more than 5 minutes on these two storms.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:00 AM

Re: bonnie

Soo, was the information wrong or just sent too early?
Colleen! Ya think we ought to check the batteries we bought in June?

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:02 AM

Re: bonnie

Don't dismiss Bonnie...

Don't forget Chas.

The NHC goofed?

It might not be so funny sunday, but, I may do a "week in review" list of posts that could be taken several different ways. Remember, I said it might not be funny Sunday. That's all I can say. Everyone in the GOM pay heed to the NHC warnings/watches. This is serious.

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:04 AM

Re: bonnie

So Jason, Looking at Bonnie now Im not impressed and I really dont know what to think. I thought all she had to do was have a good blowup of storms and she'd expand and be in buisness. Guess I was wrong. What do you see happening with Bonnie Jason? Landfall between Destin and PCB still? Also, do you buy all the talk about Charley all of a sudden being a Flordia West Coast problem? Everyone has jumped on it, and honestly I think its way too early, I'd wait to jump on something till thursday at the most. But models seem pretty intent with it so it may pan out to be bad news for Tampa. Your insight is much appreciated man. Keep up the awesome work.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:07 AM

Re: bonnie

000
WTNT61 KNHC 110140
TCUAT
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004

AN 11 PM TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION ON TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
INADVERTENTLY TRANSMITTED A FEW MINUTES AGO. PLEASE DISREGARD THIS
DISCUSSION AND WAIT FOR THE PROPER TRANSMISSION AT 11 PM.

LAWRENCE

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:08 AM

WV Loops

Just looked at the WV loops...you can see why Bonnie is being pushed to the north/north-east, she's almost being squeezed. Then I looked at the WV loops for Atlantic/Caribbean basin, and you can see why Charley is moving WNW. Pretty cool.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:11 AM

Re: bonnie

At this point, there isn't much to be impressed with with Bonnie...finally showing some signs of life with that small cluster of convection over the center, and diurnal effects should allow her to hold together overnight, but the clock is definately ticking on her. If this flareup isn't the one that kickstarts her, she likely won't make it as a distinct system, and would likely get caught up in the front and dissapate.

Charley? EVERYBODY from NO to the Keys needs to have their eyes open on this one. West Florida is historically slow to act, and this could be a problem for those folks if they don't take it seriously. THat said, if you live in Biloxi, be prepared...or Destin, or Cedar Key, or Ft Myers...at this point there is NO all clear from Charley...the forecast track right now is a low confidence one...treat it as such...

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:17 AM

Re: bonnie

Per the 10pm NHC conference call.....TS Watches up from Perdido Key (AL/FL border) 200 miles east to the mouth of the Suwanee River...

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:17 AM

Re: bonnie

I have no clue whether the information that was sent out early was wrong or not. I have a feeling it will be pretty close to what they issued. We'll find out soon.

Yes, I would check your batteries. Last night I paid no attention to Charley and gave Bonnie my undivided attention and today I'm doing careful observations of both storms. Timing is crucial and although Bonnie might not be a big storm, she has plenty of moisture. Charley, of course, is the one I'm keeping a double eye on since he's closer to Florida than Bonnie.

Then you think of all the rivers in Hillsborough/Pinellas and other rivers that are at flood level and even if we just get by with a brush of Charley/Bonnie, the city of Tampa may be the next floating city.

LI Phil...I wasn't trying to be flippant. I was just trying to figure out what happened. Maybe it was an intern, who knows. But I am very serious about both storms.

And I think that we will have Hurricane Charley at 11pm.
Amen.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:20 AM

Re:charley

TNCA 110200Z 10021G31KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/24 Q1011
TNCA 110100Z 09020G30KT 9999 FEW018 SCT120 BKN350 29/24 Q1010
TNCC 110200Z 13018G29KT 090V150 9999 FEW018 BKN300 28/22 Q1014
TNCC 110100Z 12018G28KT 080V140 CAVOK 28/23 Q1013
TNCA is Aruba
TNCC is Curacao

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:23 AM

Charley

JK...know you're busy, just a quick question. How many more runs would make you more confident in the track given out at 5pm on Charley? Thanks!

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:24 AM

Re: Charley

Tomorrow's 18 and 00z runs should be solid.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:24 AM

Re:charley

I have no idea what all that means. Can you do it in "Hurricanes for Dummies" language?

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:26 AM

Thanks, Jason

Thanks, I appreciate it. Boy, you ARE fast!

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:31 AM

Re: TS WATCH is UP

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022004
0300Z WED AUG 11 2004

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 GMT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHWEST FLORIDA FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 90.4W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT

(Weather Guru)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:32 AM

Re: Thanks, Jason

Jason, I agree with you. Those runs tomorrow should give us a better idea. I think its because the Noaa Gulfstream planes should be out examining the enviroment around Charley. Am I right Jason?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:35 AM

Re: Charley

Well looking over 00z model runs looks as though not much has changed. The 5 pm NHC track is on the western edge of model guidence. I would like to see run to run considency, but this maybe a start, they are clustered fairly tight now. Expect a possible slight adjustment to east on latter period of forecast.

Not giving up on Bonnie and would expect some come back tomorrow as conditions improve but may worsen closer to landfall as winds race from west and wnw.

(Meteorologist)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:36 AM

Re: Thanks, Jason

You got it....

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:37 AM

Re: bonnie

Bonnie has been a very odd storm-that's for sure. Just get the feeling she's going to fire up any time now.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:39 AM

Re: Charley

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:45 AM

Re: Charley

Hurricane watch up for Jamaica and Cayman Islands. Should be Hurricane Charley by morning.

Bill

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:49 AM

Re: Charley

Look for the tracks of both to shift west tomorrow. The data from th bouys in the gulf indicate that Bonnie may be drifting a little west of north still.

I think the models shifted east for Charley based on a reformation of the center further north. Maybe they mistook this for a more northerly motion. he has been on a very consistent WNW motion and I beleive he will continue all the way to the South Central Gulf before turning NW. Could be a LA storm. more likely from NO to Destin again.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:51 AM

Bonnie hmm

I have a weird feeling about this storm. It isnt going to just stay like this, drifting northward as a weak tropical storm. I bet it either dies or deepens tommorrow. I dont think it wll be a weak tropical storm though.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 02:54 AM

Re:Charley

The new Charley posts are up.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:10 AM

Re: Charley

Tampa Bay's ABC Station just showed the track of Charley on our doorstep on Saturday morning as a possible Cat 2. Dennis Phillips is the met and he is good. He also pointed out that the model runs (all 5) have Charley hitting somewhere along the west coast of Florida. I do not know if those model runs are from the 5pm advisory or the 11pm advisory but it does look a lot closer to Tampa than it did at 5pm. THAT BEING SAID:

He also mentioned that there are different scenarios (i.e., goes over the middle of Cuba, etc) that would change the track. Then he said if this track is still the same tomorrow, we may see Hurricane Watches/Warnings up for the Central Gulf Coast of Florida.

Oh...Dennis Phillips is not one to overreact and he is probably one of the most dependable mets in our area.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:25 AM

Re: Charlie

Hi Colleen,
I'm in Orlando and noticed the new track as of 11pm puts Charlie almost directly over the bay area. I think a lot of people will wake up in the morning and be surprised. Always appreciate your posts.
Looks like we're in for an interesting next few days. I watched the three wx forcasts here in Orlando and only one station had the updated track. One even had Charlie out in the gulf the other N. of Cedar Key. Although too early to tell, it's nice to note who is on top of the latest information.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:30 AM

Re: Charlie

Did you say Charley was plotted west of Tampa Bay, or what will be known as Tampa Lake?

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:30 AM

Re: Charley

This is the discussion of the eastward shift of Charley from the 11pm Advisory:

Quote:

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD
MOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST
A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT. CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...
CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...
AND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS
AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD. THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A
LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. AFTER 72 HR...WHILE
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION.S SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE
INTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS. THE
FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE
INLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
TROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.

I think it's based more on the trough/ridge than a reformation of the center of Charley. Dennis Phillips just made another point of noting that 5 of the models are in agreement on the track; although he is trying to stress it could change, I think he is yelling PAY ATTENTION!!! if you read between the lines.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:37 AM

Re: Charlie

Thanks, Stormpath. It was the updated track, so that would mean two consistent runs between 5 and 11.

I think tomorrow will be "Hurricane Hell" here in west Central Florida.

(Please stay on topic - and that wasn't)
ED

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:48 AM

Recon?

anyone know what time recon is tonight?

i know its every three hrs starting 1500z on wed...

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:52 AM

Re: Recon?

I'm not seeing any data, and I know that one of the WX Chan mets was on the last bonnie flight. He's back at Keesler now.
I think they may wait to make a 06Z or 12Z run. At least the 12Z run. Should be airborne nlt 05Z or 11Z. So we have to wait a while. Good time to catch up the other data. IMO.

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 03:55 AM

Re: Charlie

Looking at the latest models & Satellite loops, looking more like a SW Fla storm, with the lower keys possibly getting clipped too. Local stations here in S Fla were saying that the Keys emergency officials will make a decision as early as the AM on any possible evacs/recommendations.
Last few frames seems like the CDO is moving more NW than WNW, could be just a temporary jog or uneven expansion of the CDO, in any case Jamaica will be under the gun tomorrow.

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:01 AM

Re: Recon?

I don't really trust models this far in advance. We'll see by tomorrow how things are looking with Charley. I think this could go anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa. As for Bonnie, don't count her out yet. She's still, in fact, there spinning around.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:07 AM

Re: Bonnie

looking at a few sat shots and ndbc info.... it looks like bonnie has CDO over the center again now.... i noticed in last 45-60min that there appears to be a good strom complex, with great rotation over the center or just north of center..... i think she is making a come back

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:10 AM

Re: Charlie

very interesting....few hrs old check out charley

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:13 AM

Re: Steve Steve Steve

Colleen Colleen Colleen, you could get a good blast from this. Wondering what affects we will see here in east central Florida.

Joe

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:15 AM

Re: Recon?

Recon missions
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:17 AM

Re: Steve Steve Steve

Depending on the track, if it crosses the state, you'll probably get soaked. So go buy yourself a real good umbrella, my friend.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:22 AM

Re: Bonnie

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/rgb-loop.html

bonnie appears to be oh...... take a look a last few frames

stronger?

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:28 AM

Re: Recon?

They have screwed up the NHC site again, I am losing faith in them lately. They overlaid the "today" recon schedule with "tomorrow", what we want to know is what is happening tonight, and this starts at 11/1500Z which is not until tomorrow morning. The next recon data should be coming in soon, but it is time for me to get some sleep.

Bill

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:30 AM

Charlie moving fast ...towards somewhere in Florida

Okay...
so is like this...

Someone, somewhere in South Florida is going to have to deal with a strong threat of Charlie affecting their weather on the way to parts north.

The problem is not where Charlie will end up as much as where he goes on his way there.

1... west of keys
2...thru keys (eww...whimpering here)
3...oh lets not talk about north keys and SE fla..long shot anyway

As I see it right now.. Charley is going more NW than WNW. He is going so fast that I figure by the time my son and I online got done arguing that one he had traveled the distance from downtown Miami to North Miami Beach.. again "ewww"

So... aside from the "how strong?" "how big" and "how fast" my biggest question here is at what angle is he aiming for Tampa Bay.

Nice to say Tampa Bay but if he comes in around Marathon than the upper Keys and SE florida is on NE quandrant with tons of weather.

Watch.. he'll probably stall in the straits when steering currents go flat.. mark my words, would be ironically pathetically funny replay of Donna. But Donna stalled a lot, Charley never has..

Charley has gone chug chug zoom zoom across approximately over 400 miles in one day. I know I'm not a math major but... approx 25 mph foward speed over 24 hours.. you do that math..

I'm glad I'm not Billy Wagner tonight because he has big decisions to make down in the Keys. Normally he could wait a bit but with this ongoing forward speed and the tracks encompassing the lower keys.. he has to act as soon as possible. And he always does which is why I admire him greatly. So...if some announcement is made tomorrow morning that they will start a evacuation of non-residents in the lower keys tomorrow sometime.. IF..you all know that Miamians everywhere are going to stop, look, listen and run to Publix. Or at least make shopping lists.

Could go west of the Keys.. and then slam into those bay cities on the West Coast but..I think that's not the most likely scenario with her current motion being closer to NW than WNW.

And, while I've been writing this he probably went further than the average commute to work for most the people reading this... think on that one. Don't think too long or it will have gone another five miles.

Where will he hit Cuba?
At what angle?
How big will he get?
How big/strong will he get?

How many times will the models be pulled left and right over the next 24 hours before we know who is really under the gun as he makes his way towards a probable West Coast landfall.

I think a track blending Cleo from the South and then Donna track takes over...

My guess..

Good night.. we should all get some rest, we won't rest much tomorrow night.

And if Billy is reading this somewhere...sorry I can't make you laugh tonight but do me a favor and go light some candles in the grotto for me...
Bobbi
ps...too tired to proofread from looking at loops so correct the mistakes yourself and if I called him a her or a he well ..Im tired, wish they were all named after girls again...would be easier and more honest...;)

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:36 AM

Re: Steve Steve Steve

Having spent the last hour reading all the posts for the afternoon and evening since at least one of us has to work.....
I notice all of my fellow floridans that at least care what a hurricane is and can do have been checking in. I'm still trying to get my thoughts together and still have alot of data to sift through, but the one I can make now is it looks like we are going to take the hammer for awhile as Miami and the SE coast take a nap. Chuckie could still be a Cat1 has he passes over my garage and back yard swing. I don't know about the rest of you, but I hate my garage and really love my swing. This is going to be a weather event, people. For some reason I've had a funny feeling about this one. Don't know why, just have.

Does anyone else think we are paying the price for the waves coming off of africa so low? Low waves, fall/winter like cold fronts(in structure) in August; can anybody find an analog year for this mess? It hit me the other day when somebody posted that a nice looking wave coming off of africa seemed too low; they almost all been kinda low to me. Now we are getting long-trackers into the EGOM on a semi-reg basis

Strange season already, and it's just really started

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:37 AM

Re: Recon?

It looks more NW to me too, in the last few frames. But it could just be a wobble... we'll know more tomorrow, and I am going to get some sleep, because if it is shifting to the right, I'm not going to be getting much sleep over the next few days.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:38 AM

Re: Bonnie

just a side note.... the weather radio just went off here on panama city.... guess what it said..... a TS has been just issued for the florida panhandle.... well lets not get to quick... it's only about 1h30m off!!!! watch came out long time ago!!!

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:42 AM

Re: Bonnie

Bad timing-delay the panic or accelerate it at night.
Tomorrow is going to be busy in the FL panhandle.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:50 AM

Re: Bonnie

last 30min on sat shot show spiral banding starting up on south side all the way to NE side of storm (shear is light now here) CDO appears to be centered over low level cir
and i think i am seeing good fan out from center in upper level!
think recon might be leaving soon. Short flight, not to far to go!

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:55 AM

Re: Bonnie

I checked my email and the recon is Not tasked until 11/1500Z or 11 am EDT. Double checked it against the earlier Plan of the Day. Same flight times.
They did add one flight. Gulfstream 4 on Charley for 12/0000Z or 6pm EDT on Wednesday evening. High altitude 43,000 to 45,000 ft. No lat/longs listed.

HanKFranK

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 04:56 AM

Re: Bonnie

bonnie doesn't look much the worse at this hour. convection has once again returned to this small system, after a strange no-shear decoupling earlier today. can only wonder if the surface system is going to ever respond to the good environment.. not with the nhc on increasing shear capping the development.. think the alex going northeast situation will apply here as well. baroclinic effects and perpendicular coast approach should tighten the center near landfall on thursday. not very confident in my forum assertion, but it's as good as any, really. convection is looking better overnight but we've done this before.. until a real structural improvement takes place this is going to be tropical storm bonnie forevermore.
charley, if it isn't starting to outrun it's convection, is going to be a hurricane tomorrow and quite possibly a major hurricane by friday. i'm not going to stick a pin anywhere, but my ideas right now are western cuba close to havana, the lower keys, and the coastline between naples and tampa bay. it could graze the coast for quite a distance with that angle of approach... this is all four days and low confidence. i do expect a 3-4 range hurricane by that time though. more likely a 3 as it won't be over open water the whole time. most intensification.. am thinking will take place friday.
getting ideas about the convection near 13/38. too early to mean anything, but i do expect something to start acting up out there before the weekend. new wave passing off africa isn't looking half bad at this hour either.
as for the subtropics off the east coast.. westerlies out there should cool off some tomorrow and definitely by the weekend. watching the one further west the most, but the piece near/east of bermuda could also be a candidate. these latter mentions are all low prob, just other things to watch while bonnie and charley have most of our attention.
HF 0456z11august

(Weather Watcher)

Wed Aug 11 2004 06:03 AM

waves

very typical of a non el nino year, all three systems this year developed form tropical waves

Alex moved off of Africa on July 19
Bonnie moved off of Africa on July 29
Charley moved off of Africa on August 3

also, seasons beginning to remind me a little of 2000 and 2001--like 2000 this year seems to have the waves comming off of Africa at low latitudes (as joepub1 mentioned earlier) and like 2001 the systems seem to all be moving pretty fast

(User)

Wed Aug 11 2004 06:29 AM

Re: Steve Steve Steve

This would be more fun if not for work.... looks as if the PC area will see the best of Bonnie whatever it may be. Charlie has me worried for more than one reason... the area has had a lot of non-tropical rain yesterday & today... I don't think Bonnie will have a chance to dump that much but "C" following close behind may cause a major flooding event.

Coop

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 06:32 AM

Re: Charley 0624Z

It would appear that there is some type of cycling going on with Charley's center. Colored IR zoom shows a slot penetrating the center and tightening up around the lowest temp. clouds in the SE quad. Almost like cinching your trouser belt. May be spinning up, may not. Won't be long. 5 hours til daylight.

Bonnie. Cycling again. Lowest temp. pixels back in the center of the swirl. Some outflow bands? barely visible on the color IR. Shortwave off to the immediate NW may spell trouble for this cycle though. Still not seeing anything significant from the buoys. With Bonnie's size I don't really expect to see much change in the buoy data, unless she passes over one of them like Lilli or Isidore did.

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 06:33 AM

Re: Recon is Airborne

Recon airborne at 0559Z headed to Bonnie.
URNT11 KNHC 110559
97779 05594 41272 9020/ 14800 10011 1814/ /2538
RMK AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 01
27.2N 90.2W
14800-appears they are flying this part of the mission at 1500 ft or so.
10011-winds from 100degrees ESE at 11kts

(Moderator)

Wed Aug 11 2004 06:55 AM

Re: Jamaica Weather 06Z

MKJP 110700Z 36016KT 9999 FEW022CB SCT200 30/23 Q1012
MKJP 110600Z 35013KT 9999 FEW022CB 29/22 Q1012
MKJP 110500Z 28007KT 9999 FEW022CB 29/23 Q1014
MKJP 110400Z 33005KT 9999 FEW022 29/23 Q1014
MKJP 110300Z 34005KT 9999 FEW022 30/23 Q1014