| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:32 AM |
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Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Tropical Storm Bonnie passed through this morning/afternoon with relatively little problems. That's the good news. Unfortunately, that's about it for the good news for now.
Hurricane Charley remains a 105 mph Hurricane as of the last official update, although it appears his winds would be much stronger than that. Many expect Charley to be upgraded to Category III status by 11:00 EDT, Thursday night (8/12/04).
Tomorrow, not coincidentally, is Friday the 13th. For those triscadecaphobes, this could spell a triple whammy. One, it's Friday the 13th. Two, There are some projected landfalls at astronomical high tide. Three, this part of the nation hasn't seen a storm of this magnitude in 40 or more years.
For those who are in the warning area , if you are told to evacuate, you must do so, or remain at your own peril. While the landfall point is still uncertain, it would appear from all modeling and extropollation that Tampa/St. Pete is the bulls-eye, though any area 100 to 150 miles either way could be the recipient. Anyone with interests from Key West to Pensacola should have some kind of evacuation plan ready by now.
While it is entirely possible this storm could de-intensify or change course, it is also quite possible this system could intensify to Category IV. Therefore, it is most important to heed the warnings of the NHC and your local weather service, which is receiving the same data from NHC. We are facing potentially the largest peacetime evacuation in United States history. They would not call for such unless the danger is real.
If you own a NOAA radio, you should make sure it is on and have battery backup. If your preparations to protect house and home are complete, you should be heading to a shelter as soon as possible. If you haven't prepared your abode for a possible major hurricane impact, you should take whatever quick and decisive action as is necessary, and head for a safer location, if possible.
I want to wish everyone in the warning areas the best of luck and godspeed. I pray for a weak hurricane at landfall, but this has the potential to impart massive damage. Storm surge could approach 15' or even greater, in the areas hit with the eyewall.
Again, stay tuned to the official weather sources (but do check back here, this site will have all the latest, up to date data, warnings & information), and if you are told to leave...please...do so. This COULD (emphasis on could) be one for the record books.
Good luck and god bless.
Currently the National Hurricane Center has what I consider the best bet.
* site note * our automatic tracking map has been disabled temporarily due to a crash issue with the map generation program.
Event RelatedLinks
Hurricane City is having live audio and video broadcasts throughout the day on Bonnie/Charley and Jim's Audio show is from 8PM to 11PM EST
All model "Spaghetti" for Bonnie/Charlie from hurricanealley
Another Multi-Model Track plot for Charley
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:40 AM |
Live tv coverage of the storm
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Live TV Coverage from Tampa FL on your computer
http://www.wtsp.com/news/live.asp
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Thanks for the new thread. Things are getting hairy on the west coast of Florida.
The 0000 utc SHIP has Charley as a 80kt storm as it goes by me in Jacksonville. That's after it goes across the state. Somehow that doesn't compute with me. The numerical models show not much more movement to the west ( no more than 83W) and it makes landfall only, or just because, he runs into land. I hadn't thought about the fact he's not west of tampa yet. He comes in south of Tampa and strong, 97kts. Now all this is according to the numerical models, not me.......
He's going to be quick across Cuba, no more than a couple of hours. He's going across the thinnest possible overland route he could find, he really has taken advantage of every break he could get from mother nature. This will change the way I think of the GOM in August for a long time.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:53 AM |
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Re: Live tv coverage of the storm
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Hmm, wonder what Charley will have in store on Friday the 13th? Change of track? Something unheard of? That's scary. Batten down the hatches folks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:54 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Does anyone see a more southerly track then predicted?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:57 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Maybe John C, check out the radar and satellite - looks like it's going due north by now
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:58 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Great Intro to the new thread Phil....
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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John, I agree, Im going with HF on Sanibel Isl. Radar from Key West has shown almost due North for the last 3 hours.
| ChrisT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Although not very good with hurricanes, the latest BAMM model appears to have shifted back to the east again - bringing Charley ashore in the Ft. Myers/Punta Gorda area.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:02 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I've been thinking the same thing lately, that it looks like it's going north much quicker than expected.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:02 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Any new recon info ? Or can we not fly around cuba ?
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:02 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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So what is your guy's best guess on what time tomorrow Charley will make landfall? Im gonna say between 5 and 9pm tomorrow evening. It really all depends on the track. If Charley stays more NNW then it will have more time out in the gulf. If he starts turning NNE that will cut back alittle bit of the time he has before he makes landfall. So what do you guys think?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:06 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I think it's possible because like I posted a few back, he's not west of Tampa, and I'm not sure he ever will get west of Tampa. So he would have to come in south of there even if he went straight north from this point on and never curved at all. This is really a gentle curve that he's forecast to have.
So how bout this: If he turns north (000) before he gets to the Keys, then he could be the stronger southern storm that doesn't weaken before landfall, BUT NOT SE FLORIDA !!!! I did not say MIAMI !!!! Get him out to 83.5-84W then Tampa (maybe) or north.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:06 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I don't think anyone will know for sure what this cane is going to do until it completely clears cuba and decides how it is going to react to that trough. This is the dicey part coming up. When this is resolved, we will know for sure what direction the thing is going in. After that, it probably won't matter exactly who gets the landfall until it gets to the evacuation orders of other areas of the state.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:07 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Thanks Cocoa Beach Guy...
The radar loop definitly points out what John C. was noticing.
It looks like Ft Meyer now...or even south of that...It seems to be in some transition now....according to the last few frames. Is the proximity to land having effect?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:08 AM |
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Re: Live tv coverage of the storm
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I have to give props to the on air Meteorologist on TV 28 in Tampa. Using a simple paper map, he gave one of the best explainations of the effects of various landfalls I have seen in a while.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:10 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I would not read a lot into a radar loop. Unless it is a three hour loop. Too many wobbles occur in the short term. Have to take the average motion.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:11 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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No problem, cyclone head.
I guess since it's appropriate, I should join. I've been reading here for a while, getting lots of great info, so just trying to return the favor and help.
Anyways, i've been scouting for model sites trying to find anything that can correspond to current storm information, does anybody know if they've been updated, and where they could be found?
Thanks - CB Guy
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:15 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I see a little what is being said. Not really sure I will consider it a trend as much as a cuase of land interaction. I think it may resume a nnw motion for a bit once it gets over Cuba.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:23 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I have seen what I think is a more northerly shift over the last couple of hours on the key west and cienfuego radars, and IR. But I haven't said anything because I think we need to see a longer trend than an hour or two. Give it a couple more hours and lets see what happens. Although I haven't said anything before, I'm with bobbi on the trend more to the east (and I am not wishcasting). Just take a good long look at those water vapor loops. I don't think Miami is in trouble, I just think its going to landfall further south than currently predicted. I think this is what the NHC is worried about.
Bill
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:28 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Welcome aboard ShaggyDude....
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:29 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I think it may resume a nnw motion for a bit once it gets over Cuba.
Thinking the same thing. Moving at like 11:30, 20 till 12 on your watch dial, and nothing to really turn him to the right at the moment. He just doing what canes do, going polar because he can, because he's on the edge of what kept him going west. See him going NNW/N for awhile.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:32 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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If what you say is true...and the NHC is "worried about it"...then why wouldn't they update there discussion. We are running out of time...and need notification of changes ASAP.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:32 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Hello
i work at Kennedy Space Center. I will try and get the latest updates tht may not be public yet and post em here as the day goes by tomorrow. As of tonight we are still at Hurcon 3. By tomorrow we may be at Hurcon 2 which means all non essential personel go home. But, until then, I will do what I can to keep some updates flowing. We have excellent radar/satellite on the cable tv out here
Troy
cocoa beach
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:34 AM |
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Thanks Troy
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Somehow, the folks on this board seem to be able to get updates et. al. before they are made public. Anything you can do to help on that end will be greatly appreciated.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:38 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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ANy input would be appreciated Troy. Some of the models are clustered further east again.....storm2k has a plot of what I believe is the 0z. This is a nail biter. But really the cloud tops have warmed but pressures dropped at last reading. After he gets past Cuba lets see if he bombs.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:39 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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You guys play it cool tomorrow. I've usually got more to say than almost anyone but I don't have a clue what's going to happen. My best guess that whoever wants the action gets some (and whether you want it or not, you're probably going to get it anyway). Obviously most people have all their rations setup, hurricane kits, party provisions and what not. Make sure your pets are accounted for if you have to evacuate. I can't imagine a 13' storm surge in Tampa, so I really hope the storm goes in south of you guys (with no offense to anyone). To me, the doomsday track is a parallel to the coast where all of the peninsula sees at least gale force and all of the west coast gets hurricane conditions from inside of the right front quadrant (and a push of water that would rival the greatest pushes of water).
Looking forward to the visuals, writeups and photos during the action. I have to admit that I'm a tad bit jealous that I can't get in on some of it myself, but I'll live to fight again another day. Stay safe and hit it hard.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:40 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Remember Floyd! We all evacuated the entire east coast and it turned un-expectably at the last minute. I am not saying this is going to happen with Charley, but it has in the past many times. Oh the wonders of these storms
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:40 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I will bow my head and concede that for the last 40 minutes he has moved due north. I agree that a three-hour loop is a better way to go.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:41 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Charley seemed to make a move more W (like NW) and now surely back to the N (due N). It's been mentioned, but this may be Charley starting to interact with Cuba. I still think well north of the Sarasota area, and that Tampa is in deep trouble. Then again, I've been giving the storm more play towards making further west than the NHC is, so we shall see. I do like the NHC's latest track (5PM) it's very close to what I am thinking.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:43 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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As will I concede, that on the Key West Radar, it has been wobbling NW for a decent number of images, but I'll let you all decide.
Such is the nature of hurricanes.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:43 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Steve,
You've been through a CAT III. and more power to you. But I think that is the LAST thing a lot of these folks under the (current) bullseye are looking for. Perhaps, you might advise those who are going to go thru it in the next 24-36 hours what to expect, if they stay, and how best to cope...
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:45 AM |
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Just for your info
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Hi everyone, haven't posted since last year! Just lurking. Anyway just thought you might enjoy for tommorow or later tonight the web cam looking down Duval Street outside of Sloppy Joe's in Key West . Its lighted and you can see at night but better in the day. Also if you scroll down the page there are other web cams for the island. Everyone be safe!
www.liveduvalstreet.com
Jeanine aka Peanuts
Hollywood, FL
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:47 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I guess I shoud stop posting anything. Everything I am saying is being misunderstood. I was referring to a previous post about the "quandry" the NHC is in about the actual track vs. the models, and their decision to stick more to their previous forecast than the models. To me they seemed concerned ("worried") that this was happening, but stuck with their forecast rather than adjust it based on the models.
Bill
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:48 AM |
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Re: Just for your info
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Without a doubt trending more north right now. I have Charley at 8:15PM CDT at 22.0N and 82.4W.
| nickd |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:50 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I live 2 miles south of Clearwater Beach. Leaving beach tomorrow morning...6am. what can I expect. someone who has experience in a major hurricane near the coast please tell us what to expect.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Just logged in and reading. I take it Charley is doing the mambo number 3.
For those that might need a list on Hurricane Preparations and supplies I put a few on the Disaster Board last night.
If you live in a evacuation area please Don't Stay and tell your neighbors to leave also.
Remember Camille.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:57 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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The quandry that was talked about was not further east but actually further west. That is why it is not critical time wise. If it was an eastern quandry, it would have been. The models were trending further west at 6:00 PM
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:57 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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The weather office out at KSC is in the building I work in. Mayeb I can get somd personal insight if I can get into vist that office in the morning.
be safe everyone
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:58 AM |
Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Will it also hit NewJersey or will we just get bad weather???
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:59 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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they will stick to their forecast unless something makes it change. the models are just one thing used in making the forecast. when i say something makes it change not just talking about a zig or zag but a trend of movement.. took me forever to understand that and i still don't agree with some of their forecast but overall they are pretty right
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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They have a flood watch up for the Mid-Atlantic and NE because of Bonnie and Charley.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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For those of you trying to track the direction of Charley, try this site on a long animation loop. Also, can anyone post the site of the cuban radar? Thanks
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:01 AM |
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We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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Last poster,
Your governor just resigned in discrase, but that's not what's important now. Yeah, I live in LI (on LI) and I'll be getting Bonnie and Charley's remnants, and I consider myself lucky.
There are folks who are about to get hit by two tropical systems in less than 24 hours...HISTORY...so that's the main story for now.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:04 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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This is a direct link to the animated gif of the cienfuego radar.
cienfuego radar
Bill
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Thanks i could only get the main page.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Hey BillD...
Thanks for the clarification...and ...never stop posting...
smiles...
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: Thanks Troy
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Apologize if this was mentioned already -- 8:55pm recon fix found 97kt winds, so it's a little stronger than last recon, but the eyewall is still ragged and elongated. The pressure is still low around 976, but interesting that the temperatures are a little higher than they were earlier....
This sucker still wants to ride to the right of the model runs a bit. Stubborn little bugger...
Londovir
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Just for your info
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More info to know: Havana is at 23.13N, 82.38W if you want to use it as a yard stick as to where Chuckie is.I think the offical track was to take it closer toward a city called Mariel, a little west of Havana. Sorry for using Havana as a yardstick, I'm sure for the most part they'll be OK.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Thank You, Bill
Greatly Appreciated
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I was about to join the "Charley has started the move North" crowd but it seems by looking at the Key West radar, that the storm is still in a NNW move. The feeder bands are still trending NW and the eye is showing the same movement. Other opinions are welcome.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: Winds Pressure
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The pressure will fall a the winds will follow.
| ChrisT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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Last recon a little before 9PM reported 976mb and peak flight level wind of 97kts. Eye wall was still circular but a little ragged - open on the NW-NNE side. Good convection SW-E eyewall. Radar presentation looks impressive.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:11 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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I think we are all right. It's not due North yet, but it is trending that way. There is still some westerly motion in the system, but not much at this point.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:12 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Yeah, I'm all for looking at any devations from a northern track. I do see slight corrections to NNW every once and a while, but I still see a solid northerly component, and for some reason, it's seems there to stay. Counterpoint?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:13 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Nickd:
I haven't been through many evacs, but I can tell you to be very careful evac'ing from Clearwater beach as late as 6am. If the winds get bad and choppy weather, they're going to start shutting down the Courtney Cambell, Howard Franklin, etc. You shouldn't have anything to worry about leaving at 6am - except! - keep in mind they are advising Hillsborough to begin its evac around 6am also, so you could get stuck in malfunction junction if you plan on heading past Tampa eastward.
Keep in mind there were 2-3 hour delays today/tonight on all 3 main bridges out of Pinellas....if Charley keeps on a path this way, it's only gonna get worse as time goes on....
Good luck!
Londovir
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:15 AM |
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For the history books
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Someone pointed this out last september during "isabel" that with the possible future implications of such a storm, perhaps we shouldn't be referring to this storm as anything but ISABEL. Same goes for this one, this storm is not " not chuck, chuckie, chas, etc, but 04 Charley.
Because, until all is said and done, this just might be one for the record books. Not saying this is '69 camille and we would have referred to her as "cammy", but you do get the drift.
Bonnie is gone, but Charley is here...for now.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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8PM EDT was 21.7N 82.3 W
I have it at 9:45PM EDT at 22.1N 82.4W
Just about due north.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:21 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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It is moving north with the occasional westward jog.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:23 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Charley is apparently moving North now.
Can someone tell me why I should not beileve
that it will turn toward the NNE before reaching the Tampa area and then head inland through the Orlando area?
Does anyone see a due North course for 360 miles to Tampa before drifting East a bit?
Of course Charley could be just be going due North to get past Cuba and then wobble a bit West but it looks like a Northerly trend has been set.....yes?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:23 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Im not sure how ya'll are goin about tracking Charleys movement, but dont just look at a 1 hour loop. Try and loop it for 3 or 4 hours and look at the longer term general motion. I have found out in the past that the eye can expand, contract, wobble and everything else and give a false sense that a direction change has occured. IMO The general direction I've seen has been NNW. I wouldnt be to concerned with it now. Wait till after Charleys off Cube and out in the open Gulf. Then we should get a better idea of where hes going.
| nickd |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Im not going to Tampa. I'm going to inland Pinellas. As long as I get over the bridge it is only 10 minutes from there.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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These storms are upredictable period.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:28 AM |
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Re: We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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here is the first stupid question of day (not since i've been posting just today). when a object (hurricane) is going counterclockwise and it meets resistance on the east side it should bounce to the east because its foward motion going north slows down on the east but not the west . is charley (notice spelling now phil
no ie anymore) going to do that? am i missing the boat on this? looks like if it starts that along the west coast it would kinda bounce on to the east and go inland. maybe i have been reading too much stuff the last few days trying to reason with hurricane season.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:30 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Never under estimate the keen eye of all of us sat image watchers...we can see the slightest change of direction...
I go to sleep at night with my eyes rotating counterclockwise...
ok back to being serious...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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Reason with Hurricane season.
I like that andy1tom!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Yo Phil,
The only Cat 3 I went through was when I was one. My parents rode it out after we went to the shelter around the corner and my sister and I threw up from the heat (probably a airborne virus). They brought us home until the water backed up after the storm and we had to be rescued. The worst I've been through would be the center-of-circulation wall with one of the last three (Isidore?), Bob, fringe of Andrew and Florence.
Main key is stay away from windows (yeah right) and try to set up a safe room in your house if you plan to ride it out. Best thing to do if you don't have a hallway or interior bathroom is to put some mattresses up against a window in that room and put some strong furniture in front of it. You don't have to stay there the whole time, but if all hell breaks loose, you've got somewhere to go. Make sure whatever impliment of destruction you're going to use to free yourself (if necessary) is close at hand AT ALL TIMES. If your ceiling collapses or if your roof fails and the walls fall, you need to be able to get out (saw, hatchet, mallet, maul, whatever). Main thing is be safe.
And oh btw, look forward to the trof after the storm passes through. It feels like FALL here. This is unreal. I don't know what the temps are (low 70's?) but it feels like wind chill outside. A nice break before summer (hopefully) kicks in in Louisiana.
Steve
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:36 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Well, I hope that John's post that reminds us of what Floyd did doesn't come true with a turn towards SE Florida, because no one in Dade, Broward or Palm Beach counties is ready. We have no watches or warnings up, school is going on as usual tomorrow, and no one has gone to the store or even put lawn furniture away.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:37 AM |
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Re: For the history books
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You are right. Little off base on my part. Charley he is. I was guilty of the Izzy thing as well.....bad habit that will stop.
Charley on a longer loop does have a NNW/N tilt to it still.
Does anyone see a due North course for 360 miles to Tampa before drifting East a bit?
It could average out to that. It should not make a hard right turn at any time in the next 12-24 hours and he's moving at a good clip. That doesn't mean he won't have a easterly drift into the west coast shy of Tampa though. I just don't see him doing a body slam on Mickey.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:37 AM |
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Re: We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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John & Mike C. Thanks for the great site.
I'm personally going to take the opportunity to get some 40 winks. Everyone else be safe and secure.
I'll be back tomorrow am (whether you like it or not), but this one is going to carry a very loooooogn day.
You guys were great today! Everyone be safe & sheltered, and those who remain tomorrow...get on line if you can...but first and foremost...be safe!
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:39 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Thanks Steve...I think....
Very scary scenarios...
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:40 AM |
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Re: We will address those issues tomorrow or Saturday
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HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.2W
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 50SW 90NW.
That's my house above.........
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:40 AM |
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Re: Charley WARNING UPDATE
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HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
0300Z FRI AUG 13 2004
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
AT 11 PM...0300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN
REEF...AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 82.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:41 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...22.2 N... 82.4 W. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 975 mb
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: Charley WARNING UPDATE
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He He
Not tonight Dan, not tonight.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Slowing down the track. Now off Sarasota at 8:00 PM and then tracking dead into the Bay on that course. Not good moves in anyways.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:43 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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We will have to just keep watching, for last couple hours looks north. Personally I am waiting to see which way it goes after moving away from cuba in a few hours.The Key West radar just keeps showing more and more bands each hour. A beautiful site.
Hurric
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Charley has slowed down to 14 mph and pres. 975mb.
This is at 11 pm.( Seen above)Tornadoes possible along keys.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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They've shifted the track a little eastward. Now it should be coming up the western edge of the Orlando area.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:50 AM |
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Inland Winds
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How quickly should we expect Charley to lose intensity once on land? I'm trying to extrapolate expected winds if it passes through Polk County, Orange County, etc.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:51 AM |
Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Im in citrus county and charley is making me worry, If the admin will let me I will set up a camera in my home to show the incoming weather, I am 11 miles from the coastline so it might not be a Big show lol!
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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He's a close call to still be a Cat 1 at the Georgia/ Florida line.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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Check your local NWS site for the forecast. They normally update at 4pm and 4 am. I think it's local time.
Due to the circumstances they are probably updating more often.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:55 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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URNT12 KNHC 130231
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0231Z
B. 22 DEG 07 MIN N
82 DEG 22 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2874 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 252 DEG 90 KT
G. 169 DEG 010 NM
H. 973 MB down 3mb in 1:36
I. 11 C/ 3089 M
J. 18 C/ 3086 M
K. 8 C/ NA-dropped 2C-
L. CLOSED
M. C15--3 miles smaller than last fix
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF984 0703A CHARLEY OB 31
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SE QUAD 0044Z. EYE BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRICAL.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:56 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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If the storm goes on the "current forecast track" do not expect much of a drop in winds in Polk county. Orange county would probably be borderline hurricane conditions on the western side. Trop storm on the east side of the county. These are my guesses. I am sure MLB will update in their next local advisory. Ruskin would update Polk.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:56 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Looks like on radar that Charley may be weakining a bit as he's running out of room, but in about 3 hours he'll be nearing the gulf. Probably wont be rapid intensification but a gradual increase in strength until it comes toward landfall tomorrow night. Keep safe folks.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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The pressure is down more and the eye is now closed. Look at the vortex.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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They shifted the tropical storm watch southward on the east coast from Jupiter Inlet south to Ocean Reef!!! That's got to get you thinkin. BTW, I was watching the eye on the Dvorak loop. If that wasn't 355 degrees + I'm 18!!
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:01 AM |
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Slowing
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Slowing in my books Is Not good, it ussually means more of quicker recurve so the track may be more to the right. On the other hand the ridge could still be holding north of charlie and may acttully be pushing back in and the trough flattens out and passes bye to the north leaving the door way open for the storm to continue west . Call me Crazy but the Water Vapor almost wants to support the idea. the southern part of the trough appeers to flattening and the front edge almost seems to have been pushed back some instead of progressing se.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:03 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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At 10:00 the weatherman on Orlando's Ch. 27 news predicted sustained winds of 40-50 mph in the metro area and 50-75 mph in Lake and Sumter with possible gusts up to 100 mph.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:03 AM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Lots of information to process here, it's making my brain short-circuit. I wish there was something to show where it would go down to the city level in state. I live in Volusia County and i'd like to know what to expect. I've been through a few and the strong ones are not fun...
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:05 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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973 mb. Your just full of good news, aren't you.
I see a pretty good blowup coming on the north side of Cuba.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:07 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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Jim Cantore just stated at 11pm that Charley is moving "ever so slightly west of due north"
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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Yep, the eye movement is just a hair W of Due north. For once I agree with Jim. Those Cold cloud tops northeast of Cuba will be ready to wrap into the center when he gets north of cuba. He will intensify pretty rapidly.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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Thanks for the info guys. That's about what I was thinking, but I wanted to verify myself.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 AM |
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11 pm Disscusion
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the discussion aked if it was turning north prematuruly(excuse spelling) Lights out see yall in the morning.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:18 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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oops misspelling was me must be really tired.
im out hr
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:21 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Caio on that Good Night And Hope all in the keys are safe tommorow.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:22 AM |
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ok back
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Went out to dinner and came home to catch update... put on radar from cuba, from key west.. a hogs breath just west of due north
no way nnw
can say maybe a frame or two nnw but...
if you put paper or even an IM box on left edge of the eye on radar it rides the IM/paper straight up...never disapeers to the left..
and why am i not surprised
i mean...knew it could happen.. hope it doesnt turn slowly to the NNE suddenly ..
also dont understand how pressure dropped from 980 to 975 steadily over 6 hours and they didnt change wind speed.. i mean not even up to like 108mph??
typical tho
anyway... watching and reading along..staring at radar
oh and they posted tropical storm watches, suppose to be on the safe side..for miami dade and broward
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:23 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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WTNT43 KNHC 130302
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 975 MB...WINDS FROM
DROPSONDES AND AT THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL ARE SO FAR NO HIGHER
THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. THE AIRCRAFT AND LAND BASED RADAR
FROM KEY WEST FLORIDA AND CIENFUEGOS CUBA HAVE SHOWN THE 15-20 NM
DIAMETER EYEWALL SPORADICALLY BREAKING OPEN. IN CONTRAST...
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...
ALTHOUGH CHARLEY HAS THUS FAR NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG
SYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT. ALL THESE SIGNS POINT TO A SYSTEM
THAT IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT
DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 90 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.
RADAR TRACKING SHOWED A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR A TIME THIS
EVENING...WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CHARLEY IS TURNING
NORTHWARD A LITTLE PERMATURELY. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE TRACK
FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD. CHARLEY IS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH HAS ITS
AXIS AT ABOUT 25N. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. CHARLEY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR
12-24 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS BASIC SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
BUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL. AFTER 48
HR...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS POSITIONS OF EXTRATROPICAL CHARLEY.
WHILE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING SLOWLY...THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE WARM WATER AND THE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ONE
POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS A DRY SLOT WHICH HAS WRAPPED ALL THE
WAY AROUND INNER CORE. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES CHARLEY TO 97 KT IN
24 HR...WHILE THE GFDL BEINGS IT TO 112 KT. THE LATTER IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE INCREASES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR CHARLEY TO PEAK AT 105 KT PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BUT IT COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER LANDFALL...PASSAGE OVER
LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND EVENTUALLY
CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
THE POSSIBILITY OF A PREMATURE NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE FORECAST
SIZE OF THE STORM REQUIRES TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO BE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE FORECAST TRACK
REQUIRES EXTENSION OF HURRICANE WARNINGS UP THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.
SINCE THE REST OF THE ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT HAS
FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 973 MB.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 22.2N 82.4W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.8W 100 KT
24HR VT 14/0000Z 26.8N 82.8W 105 KT
36HR VT 14/1200Z 31.0N 81.7W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 79.4W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z 43.5N 74.0W 35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/0000Z 48.5N 66.5W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:23 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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Quote:
973 mb. Your just full of good news, aren't you.
I don't have any clue why, but that comment made me laugh so hard I was crying. I think it was a pressure release. A lot of conflicting emotions going on right now....Thanks for the break.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:23 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Another thing to remember, once the weather goes downhill, that's pretty much it. In a doomsday Cat V (Gilbert-esque) moving up from the south, hurricane force winds would be there hours before the IH winds. In Charley's case, it's probably going to be a few bands with big gusts and heavy downpours until you get into the concentric part of the storm where it's chaos. Charley passing over an area from the south looks to be a wild ride of about 8-12 hours @ 14mph. Also, you usually won't see much thunder and lightning with a strong hurricane. But the outer bands can (and do) often spawn short-lived tornadoes that touch down for a brief time and pick back up. That's what killed all of those people in LaPlace, LA (10-12 miles west of me) when Andrew came ashore in St. Mary Parish. So definitely beware the first squall line coming through your area if you've never experienced a strong hurricane before. And I could be wrong, but I think tornaodes rotate in from the SE (any mets could correct that if it's wrong).
Steve
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:26 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Can someone explain this to me. Does this mean that they are leaning towards the east side of the forecast track or am I just really tired? (Got this from the 11pm discussion) It just seems contradictory.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR
BUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL. AFTER 48
HR...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS POSITIONS OF EXTRATROPICAL CHARLEY.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Eastern edge of the models for the first 48 hours then shifting to the left..
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:30 AM |
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Lightning
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Steve,
Local TV weather radar here in South Florida just showed 4,299 lightning strikes with the bands in the keys in just the last 1 hour.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:33 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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Yeah, you'll get them over water with the fringe. But I'm inland so we don't usually get the lightning. 5000 is a lot of strikes btw.
An interesting phenominon could send Charley either way. As noted in the 11:00pm discussion, a dry slot has rotated in all the way to the core. This is a - for development. However, both Bonnie and Charley had tended to organize a bit in the wee hours through the early daylight. Hopefully that isn't the case this time because that would mean development right on top of people. 973 is low. How low can it get?
Steve
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:36 AM |
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Key West Radar
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Looking at the most recent Key West radar, the eye appears to again be moving more on that NNW course, as opposed to due N
--Lou
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:37 AM |
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Re: Charley Vortex Update
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I would not go scrapping the now laid ideas of the NHC for an apparent N jog.This might be occurring for simple reason possibly of the interaction with land.I tend to think of these systems as mass because they are.In fluids you treat the atmosphere as a fluid and everything has mass and some coefficient of friction.Charley over the last three hrs. has slowed down to 12mph at this rate yea could turn but I would wait till it got to the other side to post judgement.The NHC I would have to say has had a good handle on this one.Have to give them an A up to this point.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:37 AM |
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Cuba
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Looks like the eye is going to go right over or just to the west of Havana just after the clock strikes Friday the 13th. Worst case scenario for them.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:39 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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Does anyone know what the purpose is for turning off the main breaker to the power at your house if you are evacuating? I've been hearing all day that we should do this, but I don't understand why.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:41 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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Richie,
I know you're a fanatic like me (I can't ever sleep more than a wink here or there when under a threat). But here are some good articles you might browse through if you have a chance. The first one is about Dr. John Hallet who researches the relatively rare occurrence:
Lightning Associated with Storms 1
This is a story about tornadoes in the right front quadrant:
Tornadoes & Hurricanes
And finally, here's the answer from Research Met Robert A. Black as to why lightning is so infrequent in storms.
All the articles are short and hopefully will provide everyone (including me) with a bit more edu-ma-cation on the subject.
Why so little lightning in storms
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:42 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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To protect your box from a power surge when power is restored.
Steve
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:44 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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lived here all my life so i've been thru a few... like steve says generally the lighting comes with the first bands of the hurricane. (grew up on the coast and still live there so don't know if it is just over water) after that just rain usually sideways because the wind blows so hard.. also just about all your shrubs die. my grandmother said it was the salt water rain.. course she predicted hurricanes from her corns hurting or the way the sea gulls acted. (btw she was right alot of times)
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:45 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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I think lightning is very common in the bands far removed from the center, but very uncommon near or in the eyewall.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:51 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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I think that's what they mean based on the happy faces of the local mets here in Lakeland. They're all getting a little goofy.
This is such a weird feeling that I am having now. I'm almost releived to finally know where it's going to go. Even though it's near me. When I was at the boys' football practice tonight, the weather was so beautiful that I could not imagine a hurricane coming through here tomorrow. Everything seemed brighter for some reason. It's a hard thing to put into words. Maybe I'm just weird.
That being said, I have some other news to pass along: apparantly, Tallahassee forgot to mention to the toll booth workers NOT to charge the people evacuating. It was bumbper to bumper for almost 4 hours. Then there was one toll road where they only had 2 toll booth lanes open instead of 4. I would have rammed my 'Burb right through those barricades, believe you me.
Finally, the Governer had to get on TV to tell the toll workers they were not supposed to charge (I didn't know they had TV's in the toll booths, did you? 
).........and they wonder why we had problems in the 2000 Elections????? Sheesh. 
My NOAA weather radio is working just fine. My husband nearly had a heart attack at 4:40 or so when they issued a Flood Watch and Hurricane Watch/Warning. It has a very LOUD TONE. At least he has a sense of humor...he came outside and said, "Hey, Catwoman, the Bat Phone is going off in the Bat Cave."
Does anyone expect the winds to catch up with pressures at the 2am advisory? Are they going to jump another 15 mph or more? Or are they waiting for it to cross over Cuba?
To the moderators: sorry if I am going off topic a little bit; just a wee bit stressed and venting it makes me feel better. Thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:53 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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Looking at the latest KW radar, heavy rain squalls are approaching the South Florida mainland.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p37cr/si.kbyx.shtml
TG
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:56 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Colleen:
Same story, different night, eh? Tracks going back left and back right all day, trying to settle down. It's back over Lakeland's head once again. I guess, as some people said, that's a good news-bad news sort of thing. Bad news is direct overhead hit, but good news is it should go by fast, rather than force us to sit through an entire ring of hurricane force winds.
Hang tight, going to be interesting night/day tomorrow. Hope this apartment holds up to the abuse.
Londovir
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:00 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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maybe i can get away with off topic because its slow right now but i don't leave because of that reason.. i would have road rage... the one time i left (opal) i went to paw-n-laws house and it was about 11 miles inland. took me about a hour to get there with all the traffic leaving town. don't know if the winds will catch up with the pressure but they will increase once it gets back in the gulf... is the front that is suppose to make it curve back east still doing what it is suppose to? it looked like it was still way north to me.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:00 AM |
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ACCUWEATHER??
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Can you believe Accuweather still has this storm off shore, and are predicting only 70 mph winds on West Coast of Florida.. They have been showing that same old tired track for a couple days now.. Even channel 6 in Orlando was showing it for the past couple days including this evening. I wrote them an email and complained that they are sending the wrong message to their viewers.. No response..
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danielw
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: FL venting
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Nothing like a little stress breaker. ED please grab the "Catwoman" post for the next edition of weather snickers.
Throwing your breaker outside at the meter also prevents you home burning should flood water short the receptacle boxes out. Power company usually pulls the meters if they have time, but I don't think they have enough staff for this one. Don't pull the meter yourself! It's very dangerous and deadly!
Keep the links coming Steve.
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:01 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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I think they would want your to turn off your electricity in case your area gets flooded and the water gets in the walls, etc. Don't want to go to the trouble of evacuating to save your life and then come home and turn the light on and get zapped.
I might have missed this before, but what type of winds could we expect in Lakeland (Polk County) with a CAT 3?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:02 AM |
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Re: Lightning
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I think I may have just changed my mind. Look at the Long Range Key West radar. Look how great the eye and eyewall is looking now. I also cant help but notice how small the eye and the hurricane is in general. We all know that while some hurricanes may be small in size, they can pack quite a punch. There is numerous of storms in the years past but Im not gonna name any as you all already know what im talking about. I'd be worried now about maybe some rapid intensification once Charely gets into the gulf. Latest forecast says landfall near Sarasota/Tampa area with sustained winds of 120mph, with gust to 150? if im converting 130knots correctly.
I dont really know how to feel right now...Im full of excitement because this will probably be the first major hurricane I track that makes landfall. I only got intrested in weather when I was about 10 or so (Im now 17). So Im thrilled, but at the same time I feel horrible for the folks in SW and C Flordia. I just hope everyone has taken all necessary precautions by now and have hunkered down. Hopefully the storm can hold of any landfall till after 6pm tomorrow as I have more football practice!!
But please everyone just stay safe and use common sense. G/Night
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:04 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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Believe you will be getting hurricane force winds.. Not sure the exact speed.. Your my neighbor to the west so I think you will see more winds than me.. I am hoping my 50-100 year old oaks surrounding my house will hold up. I am glad they drained Lake Toho and were just beginning to fill her up.. I would have had water in my house.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:05 AM |
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oh thank u Steve...
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maybe you should have been on tv today instead of the very descriptive nonstatements we all got
so like there is this massive band with about 2/3 of the rain coming into the upper keys/miami area in about 2 hours.. i mean strong weather
ill look to the SE..thats where my kids are because they went out to the boardwalk to see friends from out of town because winds are only 11mph and there was no tropical storm watch when they left. Im sure they are fine.. its the old neighborhood, we rode out andew on miami beach there..they are fine...
so i put on twc... the bit on the olympic sailing ended and they show the local weather
that nice friendly high sort of voice they have come on over soft music
there has been a tropical storm watch issued for your area
there has been a tornado watch issued for your area
there has been a flood watch issued for your area
well how bout that
guess ill go out into the back yard and throw another shrimp on the barbie and look SE for that band of tornadoes
thank you Steven lol rofl
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:07 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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You got it, Londovir! It seems like it was just yesterday...
..uh, it was! Did you nail the plywood over your windows? Why wouldn't the apartment managers NOT want you to do that? Stupid people are everywhere, aren't they?
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:08 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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Colleen, they're saying around now, depending on where eye enters, that we could expect 70-80 mph winds for about 3 hours tomorrow. Hard to say. Of course if it comes in around Sarasota and angles over us, it'll prolly be a little less due to weakening over land.
Worst part (seems like always to me) is it's looking to be yet another darkness hurricane hit. Seems like every cane I've weathered in my life has always rolled in under darkness. Makes it much more frightening.
Londovir
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:12 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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It appears that the eye is just now making landfall in Cuba, based on lastest radar.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:19 AM |
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Re: Inland Winds
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Don't laugh at the name here. It's called MEOW. Maximum Envelope Of Winds. I'll put the link here and let you be the judge.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmeow.shtml
This link would apply to the last advisory, somewhat.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/GC10512.GIF
BTW: the next recon flight just became airborne.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:19 AM |
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Left jab, right overland
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Bonnie sent several tornados through Jax today. 4 people hurt, cars tossed around, an old hotel not in use leveled. TWC says everyone from SW FL to the FL/GA line, (over 6 million people in path) needs to be ready. Local stores did have a run put on them here today, mostly for the basics. Nobody's boarding up on the E coast, but Mayor said most of us could lose power (expected). JEA will turn it off when trees begin to break down the power grid. Could take several days to clean up that mess. Most of this is worse case stuff, but better than 50% chance of it happening. Local mets are on board with NHC, none went out of their way to make it sound worse than it is, nobody playing the hero. Kinda proud of them for that, overall they've done a good job. I'll give the NHC an A so far, but the final exams are tomorrow. Tonights call was the last one most people will hear, hope they got it right. I will say I think they have. I think I heard tonight it was 1906 the last time Florida took two storms this close to each other, most of us will hope it's another 98 years before this happens again.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:26 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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wish you the best.. stayed up late last nite (most of it) and got lucky bonnie stayed south and to the east of me.. the only bear on wishing it goes somewhere else is you are wishing misfortune on someone else.. anyway good luck.. gotta get some z's
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:26 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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And the phone rings and emails keep on coming. Sorry i havnt posted today for I worked and had to respond to alot of people while keeping up with Charley.
Still straight on schedule from my posts a few days back and yesterday on the track of Charley. Bonnie was pretty easy on threatning looks at wanting to jump to hurricane strength but just didnt get the right factors into play. I forcasted her to stay a TS but would have the slightest chance of making a hurricane,. well everything came on schedule (like Alex).
Charley behaving the same way,, path near Jamaica then Cayman Islands then up alittle west of key west and threaten Ft Myers thru about New Port Riche as of a couple days back. Wind speeds are on schedule. I only see 1 thing that the NHC also noted that alitte more of a N wobble at times has been taking place over the last 6 hours. If this continues and starts a wobble or 2 to the NNE by every .1 per 3 hours over the next 6-9 then landfall should be closer to Venice on NNE track late Friday afternoon or by evening. This will be due to the trough to its NW really digging in slightly quicker then what is forcasted (note the ENE jogs that Bonnie took). IF Charley holds his own or strengthns more after 3am in a more major drop in pressure (say down to 962mb) by 8am this might cause more of a lifting factor and keep the path more N into the morning hours on Friday before the wobbles NNE during that late morning hours and into the afternoon and evening. This would take the center near Sarasota - Clearwater landfall around 9pm- 12am. ( note the big swath in timing and area coverage there is due to the coastline in a NNW-SSE direction in corrilation to the N to NNE direction of Charley. Had to tell even now the exact spot due the trough to its west and the better northern outflow of a possible Charley by sunrise. Time will tell but staying on a Sarasota area with impacts all the way up to coastal Hernado. Nothing is set. scottsvb
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:35 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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>>I think lightning is very common in the bands far removed from the center, but very uncommon near or in the eyewall.
That's pretty much right, but not necessarily inland. I went and looked at some high-tech radars after you posted about the 4200 strikes. That was a big fat clump of clouds (with embedded squall line - saw severe tstorm warning for southern Dade Co.). I've personally heard thunder in about 3 of the 8 or 9 storms that I've seen outer bands from (rotating outer bands, not the ones that build in overhead). I don't recall ever seeing any in any of the depressions I've gone through FWIW. (Edit in: As noted in the third article, it's due to the ice crystals over the colder parts of the system {= inner-storm}).
Londovir,
That's pretty scary when you think of it. BIggest gust I've ever seen was probably in the 60's. Even at only Cat II, if you get 70mph+ for 2-3 hours, that's pretty nerve wracking/hair raising. And once it starts...
Steve
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:36 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Yes, the front is still there...as far as doing what it's supposed to do, it all comes down to timing -- what else is new?
What I'm hearing from the mets here is that if the front comes down sooner, Charley will make landfall south of Tampa Bay. That's the scenario they want because then the water in Tampa Bay will be pushed OUT into the GOM. If it is slower coming down, we get it north of Tampa Bay and then we have a huge problem because the water will be push into the bay and it doesn't have anywhere to go. The track is pretty much set, it just the timing of the front and where Charlie is when they meet.
p.s. The Batphone just went off again...scared the living daylights out of me. It was for a "HIGH WIND WARNING...FROM FRIDAY AT 8:AM TO SATURDAY AT 8:00AM INLAND COUNTIES CAN EXPECT MODERATE TO SUBSTANTIAL WIND DAMAGE..."
Couldn't get the whole thing because I was using the defibrillators on myself.
I guess they just answered my question.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:38 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Alarming Public Info Statement Tampa
...structural Damage...
The Majority Of Mobile Homes Will Be Severely Damaged Near Where The
Storm Makes Landfall. Houses Of Poor To Average Construction Will
Have Significant Damage...including Partial Wall Collapse And Roofs
Being Lifted Off. Many Will Be Uninhabitable. Well Constructed Houses
Will Incur Minor Damage To Shingles...siding...gutters...as Well As
Blown Out Windows.
Partial Roof Failure Is Expected At Industrial Parks...especially To
Those Buildings With Light Weight Steel And Aluminum Coverings. Older
Low Rising Apartment Roofs May Also Be Torn Off...as Well As
Receiving Siding And Shingle Damage. Much Of The Glass In High Rise
Office Buildings Will Be Blown Out. Airborne Debris Will Cause
Damage...injury...and Possible Fatalities.
__________________
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:42 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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Warm Water ahead. Checked the temeratures of the GOM directly ahead of Charley.
Here's the results:
Dry Tortugas hi water temp today was 86.9
......................lo water temp as of 10pm was 86.2
Sand Key......hi water temp 86.9
......................lo water temp 85.8
Long Key......hi water temp 89.6
......................lo water temp 87.6
*these are inconclusive, but Charley has to pass over the Gulf Stream, unless he turns towards the west.*
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:47 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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The eye has become even better organized over Cuba. I think once it makes it out over water again this may become a cat4?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:49 AM |
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Re: Cat 4?
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What happened to CAT 3?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:56 AM |
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u sure
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i was hoping that massive band of dark color on ir about to slam into miami was an outflow boundary
watching... why does this storm have no weather to the south or west all to ne? and eye
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:57 AM |
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Re: Cat 4?
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This storm is getting stronger over Cuba in is holding a very small eye! It is very possible with the waters of the Gulf of Mexico in the upper 80s!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:57 AM |
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Re: Cuba
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That is scary...I've never even seen 70mph winds, never mind be in the middle of them. Tomorrow's going to be a long long day, I do believe. I don't like not being able to see what's going on.
*here's another one for the weather books: the anchorman on BayNews9 just said, "If for SOME REASON YOU LOSE POWER TOMORROW, YOU CAN LISTEN TO US ON 104.7"
What does he mean, If for SOME REASON? Doesn't he realize that a major hurricane MIGHT be THE reason for losing power?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:57 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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warren madan on the weather channel said the front has stalled? what does that mean for our storm
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:57 AM |
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Re: ACCUWEATHER??
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To Lake To Ho Kissimmee,
your comment about local weather on TV. I think 9 does the best followed by 2 and then 6 a distant third. Very disappointed in six.
I'm afraid if the storm is indeed going East of previous track say over lakeland more toward Orlando that you'll see winds well above hurricane force.
I want to add just a word of commentary since its late at night.
I'm pretty much a life long Florida resident. The only real hurricane we've had in Central Florida was Donna some 44 years ago.
Although I enjoy weather and tracking the storms, the fact that one is coming over my roof tomorrow night is at least a bit unnerving. It's one thing to talk about them. It's quite another to experience one.
Sorry to be off topic a bit, please forgive me.
I'm both excited and nervous about Charley. You always expect the storm to miss you but this time it's going to come right to my area. As we've been saying for years, we wer overdue.
Firiday the 13th will be scary indeed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:58 AM |
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Re: Cat 4?
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Quote:
What happened to CAT 3?
I feel like its already a cat 3 . Kind of weird that we saw the pressures fall most of the day with out the winds ever being bumped up .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:00 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Was that the inland warning or the coastal warning? What I got was the High Wind Warning for Inland Counties....I'll try to find it.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:05 AM |
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Re: Cat 4?
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I think the reason the winds were never upped was given by the NHC, and was basically along the lines of "well, all of our planes couldn't find any sustainable winds at that speed, so we aren't upping it." I agree to some degree - I've kept up with the recon reports, and the planes simply haven't reported more than around 97kts most of the time, which is why they've kept it around 105mph.
I'm keeping a nervous watch on the recon data, waiting for the plane to start sending back data. They've sent out a RECCO report, but the winds are only 20kts, and I know they aren't in the red zone yet.
Londovir
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:05 AM |
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i know colleen..
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there are just sooooooooo many warnings posted
whole thing seems surreal, look at radar (just w of north) and look at ir... all headed up into keys and dade...
wish i had a radar with a good overlay of havana
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:05 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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I don't know what that means. It may mean that it may go further north, may cause the storm to stall. I have not heard that on any of our local stations yet.
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:09 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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Well eye now quite clear on short range radar from key west. Looks quite impressive. Looks to be moving north or just a smdge west of due north. Of all things NWS Tampa's radar has gone down and will be down until about 10am mabe earlier, power supply burned out.
Otherwise I'll give updates throughout the day on obs here in st.pete.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:09 AM |
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Re: Cat 4?
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I agree with the pressure vs wind curve.
Quick research revealed that Andrew had :
1200 25.8 68.3 981 70 kts
1800 25.7 69.7 969 80 kts
on August 22,1992
0600 29.2 91.3 955 115 kts
1200 30.1 91.7 973 80 kts
1800 30.9 91.6 991 50 kts
On August 26,1992
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:09 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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sorry its not a cat 3,,,YET!!!! presures from 980mb down to 973mb average out to a general 85-95mph system. 105 is generous actually. To get to a Cat 3 pressures need to be down around 962 or less.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:11 AM |
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Re: Left jab, right overland
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Am wondering what the chances are for Gainesville to take a hit with Charley. I have two kids at college there with my grandchildren and am concerned.
Thank you!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:14 AM |
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great sat pic
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http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_east.html
rolling eyes
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:16 AM |
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Re: OBSVERATION
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Looks like the eye is exiting cuba!!!! here we go....
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:20 AM |
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Re: 11 pm Disscusion
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The GOES satellite is serving up some really good imagery, I'd say the eye is about over the exact middle of Cuba right now. Easy to see the eye against the land. Not to mention you can grab a pretty decent time amount (hours), and zoom right down to the island.
It's one of the greatest triumphs of the Internet age that I can look at an image taken by a satellite in space only 10 minutes before. Yes, it's terrifying having the huge storm bearing down on us, with heavens only knows what power and devastation, but in a day and age like this, I feel just a little better knowing I can fire up my computer and pull satellite imagery out of space rather than have to go by an NOAA radio broadcast.
Okay, done waxing philosophical. Here's the GOES link again for those who don't know it by heart:
GOES Satellite Imagery
I'm heading off to sleep for tonight. Good luck to all and God bless. Will be up in about 7 hours to begin a really, really long day.
Londovir
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:22 AM |
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Re: Left jab, right overland
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Ref Gainesville, a lot depends on the exact path the storm takes but in general look for it to be a windy rainy night in Gatorland.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:22 AM |
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Inland High Wind Warning
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I found it:
Quote:
Urgent - Weather Message National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area - Ruskin FL 1156 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2004
1000- Hardee-Highlands-Polk-Sumter- Including The Cities Of...Bartow...Lakeland... Sebring And Winter Haven. 1156 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2004
...Inland Hurricane Wind Warning In Effect From 10 AM This Morning To 10 AM EDT Saturday...
The National Weather Service In Ruskin Has Issued An Inland Hurricane Wind Warning For Sumter...Polk...Highlands And Hardee Counties.
Winds Will Increase Rapidly From South To North On Friday...With Some Areas Receiving Gusts Over 40 Mph As Early As 10 AM EDT As The Outer Rain Bands Move Through. As Charley Approaches The Coast In The Afternoon...Winds Will Increase To 50 To 60 Mph With Gusts To Hurricane Force.
An Inland Hurricane Wind Warning Is Issued When Sustained Winds Near Hurricane Force...Or Frequent Gusts At Or Above Hurricane Force...Are Expected Within The Next 12 To 24 Hours.
...Damaging Winds Expected...
Most Mobile Homes Will Experience Moderate To Substantial Damage. Some Of Poor Construction Will Be Uninhabitable Until Repaired. Houses Of Poor To Average Construction Will Have Damage To Shingles...Siding...And Gutters. Some Windows Will Be Blown Out. Many Lanai Screens And Pool Cages Will Be Damaged. Unfastened Home Items Of Light To Moderate Weight Will Become Airborne...Causing Additional Damage And Possible Injury. Dozens Of Wires Will Be Blown Down. Local Power Outages Will Affect Entire Neighborhoods.
Many Large Branches Of Healthy Trees Will Be Snapped...And Rotting Small To Medium Sized Trees Will Be Uprooted. Dozens Of Palm Fronds Will Be Blown Down...And Minor Damage Will Occur To Citrus Orchards And Newly Planted Lowland Crops.
&&
See Hurricane Charley Local Statements Under Wmo Header Wtus82 Ktbw For More Information
For Additional Weather Information...Check Our Web Site At Http://Www.Srh.Noaa.Gov/Tbw (lower Case)
Not very promising, huh?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:26 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Pressure is but one measure of a storm's intensity and is not always correlated with the system's wind speed. Pressures are higher over the western Caribbean than normal, and per the NHC, this is why 105mph winds can be sustained with such a storm. They won't falsely say winds are higher or lower than they are, as there would be too much backlash from the general and scientific communities.
Charley looks to be about halfway across Cuba and should re-emerge in the Gulf around or just after 2am. He's taken a little wobble west over land, but it's not significant right now and a more general view of the track over the past 6 hours is preffered - i.e. NNW. The eye on satellite seems to be holding together over land, and Key West radar confirms this. Don't see any reason why some strengthening isn't possible overnight during the diurnal convective max. Waters are extremely warm around the Keys, running near 90 in some spots.
Recon will not be able to give a vortex report until after the entire center is over the water once again; can't drop a dropsonde while it's over land, particularly over Cuba! Even if it gets there before then, the recon won't be able to transmit a vortex report for another hour or two.
Charley is a compact storm and track errors will be critical when it comes time for landfall. The circulation envelope is large than with Bonnie, however, meaning I can't see the shear it will eventually encounter having nearly the same effect on Charley as it did on Bonnie. BTW, it's worth noting that the cyclone phase analyses from the 18z GFDL on Bonnie (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase) show that it made landfall as a cold-core low after having undergone extratropical transition prior to landfall. That's consistent with satellite and surface observations.
Bottom line on Charley - strengthening is possible starting in about another 2 hours once the entire center is over the water, the full turn to the north (and NNE) has not yet begun, and residents in the warning area need to be on guard for anything. I am really surprised that there is not at least a TS warning north of the Suwannee River (where the hurricane warning abruptly ends); NWS/Tallahassee feels that any impacts on the NW side will be minimal and are putting heavy faith in the NHC track (plus probably don't want to keep up the extra staff needed with watches & warnings in the area after just finishing up with Bonnie), but considering the large difference a small shift to the west will cause in the ultimate landfall position, I completely disagree and surely hope they aren't putting themselves in a very precarious position. I don't think it will get up there, but better safe than sorry.
I've targeted somewhere a bit north of Ft. Myers for a landfall, based mainly upon model consensus as well as the predominant upper steering pattern. When Bonnie came in, it lifted the Florida part of the trough up ever-so-slightly, which I think is allowing Charley to track a bit further west than may have originally been anticipated. But, as the trough builds back in further as Bonnie weakens and races NE-ward, Charley will eventually follow suit and turn. There's no good place for a storm like this to make landfall and I hope everyone up and down I-75 - especially west of the interstate - from Ocala southward are in a safe place, because it's only going to get worse (a lot worse) before it gets better. Flooding and surge will be the biggest impacts; unsecured structures will also see heavy wind impacts, though these will be dependent upon how much the storm strengthens.
I've got to turn in for the night, though, as I'm still really drained after chasing Bonnie. Stay safe everyone and if you have to get out, do so asap.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:27 AM |
|
Re: OBSVERATION
|
Anyone have any idea how big/wide the eye is now?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Key West Radar
|
Here's a great link that I use sometimes. This is the Key West Radar site. The colors are a little different from the ones you are used to seeing.They have enabled looping for all of the products but the VAD wind profiler.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/paulradar.pl?BYX
BTW: I took the base refl at 2.5deg and estimated the height of the eye area to be between 43,200 and 57,000 ft using a nexrad calculator. It probably goes beyond that altitude.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:33 AM |
|
MIAMI CONDITIONS BAD!!!
|
I went through Andrew, and this is nothing at all like Andrew, BUT, conditions are VERY VERY BAD, wind is howeling out of the South, terrible T-storms pounding us and power is out in Miami Beach -- South --- Caution to those on West Coast --Brace yourself if you haven't already, this one is BAD
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:36 AM |
|
|
|
South East Florida
|
Just wanted to give a little update. Here in Hollywood, FL it is thundering, lighting and starting to rain. I was watching the radar and went outside and could see the lighting in the distance and have been watching it. It is coming down as I type and we just got a really big wind gust. AMAZING
Jeanine
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:37 AM |
|
|
|
going off..
|
Going to watch the lightning show..and rain pounding against my south facing window and wonder why again and again this stuff happens...
talk incessantly about the eye but dont focus on where strong weather will hit..etc...
good luck everyone...
not even going to discuss whats annoying me..
cant believe this happens all the time, over and over...
area twice the mass of the eye (which is a strong eye but small) is headed off to NE over South Florida.. hope the small little eye misses Key West
and hope 2 am is honest and says movement just west of due north
and that the winds eventually match the low pressure reading
nite
hey bad cell in naples too...watch out
bobbi
you know...all day...all day in miami they gave approximate times for landfall in key west, off havana but no one did forecasts for when first bands would come through and they didnt issue the tropical storm watches until after the kids all went down to miami beach or elsewhere...
rain sounds great, heavy and steady
nite
oh and happy birthday fidel
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: OBSERVATION
|
Best guess, using the above link, at the highest scan, It measures out around 7 miles but it's hard to do with pixels. I'm sure it's bigger than that. The rings on the radar are at 62nm and 124nm. You can use that as a reference.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:46 AM |
|
|
Re: South East Florida
|
BAD conditions here in Ft Lauderdale, huge squall line moving through, brief tropical storm force gusts, rain is pounding us right now & frequent lightning.
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:51 AM |
|
Re: last 30min
|
based on rad pix.... storm is still moving a little west of due north,
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:56 AM |
|
Re: last 30min
|
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...HURRICANE CHARLEY CROSSING CUBA IN HURRY...EYE OVER WESTERN
HAVANA...ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANNEE
RIVER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH FLORIDA
MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST
FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
KEY WEST AND CUBAN RADAR INDICATE THAT AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE EYE
OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED OVER CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST ABOUT 14 MILES...22 KM...WEST OF
DOWNTOWN HAVANA.
CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE EYE OF CHARLEY AROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES CHARLEY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM. HAVANA AIRPORT RECENTLY REPORTED GUSTS TO 58
MPH...93 KM/HR.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 973 MB...28.73 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET IS PROBABLY BEING EXPERIENCED
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MADE LANDFALL. THE SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS THE HURRICANE
MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...23.0 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 973 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:57 AM |
|
|
Re: last 30min
|
From what I'm seeing on the latest radar from College of DuPage, I'm not liking the set-up. It could just be me, but Charley's eye has already cleared Cuba and is back in the gulf and if it's maintained it's strength, this could be bad. My thoughts and prayers are with everyone in the Florida and especially those in the path of this storm.....
Godspeed Sunshine State
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:58 AM |
|
Re: South East Florida
|
Yes TropicsGuy....that was a VERY strong squall line....in a condo in North Miami area....cool to see 5 floors up...but if that continues I will reconsider staying in the morning....woke me right out of bed! Take care west coast!
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:04 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Charley's half way across Cuba about to hit warm water again, inner core looks in solid shape. Good odds he going to crank up today.
For those who think you might be getting a little off topic, I will say you're doing just fine. Sometimes those of us from FL seem to get a bit jumpy at the first sign of a cloud, we do i guess. But we live with the fact that most of us have no where to run, there is no "higher" ground to go to. The NHC, the state of Florida, and soon the Federal government, are doing the best they can. The evacs in Tampa have gone pretty well, the call to make them when they did was outstanding. Some panic? Yes, but nothing like Floyd. Maybe we do learn from past mistakes every once in awhile. Just listen to the warnings and updates, do the right thing, protect yourself and loved ones, and everything will be cool.
At some point tomorrow, the rest of the board will notice groups of us not posting for a little while. Alot of us are going to be without power, but we'll be OK. I'm sure all of us will be back as soon as possible to let everyone else know firsthand what it was like. The Tampa/St. Pete area is going to get pounded, and many inland areas are going to take a hit. But there are alot of hardworking people here, and we'll get the place picked up and leave the light on so you can come see us ASAP.
For those of you in the Lakeland area, could you please make sure the Publix headquarters remains in one piece, since I count on them to cut me a check every week.
And thanks to all the Admins of this site, and to the small group who hung out at 3 in the morning tracking this thing. Good people, all of you.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:07 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
URNT11 KNHC 130508
97779 05084 60243 84118 30700 08020 04048 /3155
RMK AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 05
based on last few obs... recon is lowering in alt... meaning, eye is back over gulf.... get ready for vortex soon
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:08 AM |
|
Re: RECON
|
URNT12 KNHC 130544
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/0540Z
B. 22 DEG 57 MIN N
82 DEG 38 MIN W
C. NA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 046 DEG 085 KT
G. 290 DEG 10 NM
H. NA
I. 5 C/ 3085 M
J. NA / 3083 M
K. NA / NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 2345/7
O. 0.1/NA NM
P. AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 06
MAX FL WIND 85 KT NW QUAD 0538Z. RADAR ESTIMATE OF CENTER
OVER CUBAN COAST. MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND THRU NE QUAD 102 KT
0543Z.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:11 AM |
|
|
Re: OBSERVATION
|
ABC Action New in Tampa just did a phone interview with Charley Paxton from the NWS in Ruskin/Tampa Bay. He said that people who are not taking this seriously are putting their lives at risk by not heeding the warnings to leave. He also said that there will probably be only minor changes to the left or right and timing, but other than that, it's a Tampa Bay storm. He also said that depending on how intense the hurricane is when it nears our area, inland winds could be as high as 85-90 mph with higher gusts.
No major changes with the 2am advisory; it's almost out of Cuba and into very warm waters.
Bobbi...I know you're frustrated with the lateness of the advisories. Hope your kids are okay, and that you stay safe.
I've got to go to bed. Tomorrow is going to be a very long day/night.
God Bless and Good luck.........
Colleen
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: RECON
|
Incomplete observation. I guess Presidente Castro wouldn't let them overfly Cuba.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:17 AM |
|
Re: report
|
eye passed within 20 mile of havanna... wonder whats left?
wonder what wind recon will find? whats eveyone's guess? i say 110kts in ne quad
| bsnyder |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:20 AM |
|
Re: RECON
|
Thank you all, for being here and giving me your comments and observations. I simply can not fall asleep!
I'm right in the path of Charley (South Tampa peninsula) and am expecting to leaving my home at 6:00 a.m. to head for our "safe spot".
I must confess to being more than a little scared right now. I can't imagine how hard it's going to be leaving our house in a few hours and not knowing what in the world we will be coming back to.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:21 AM |
|
Re: RECON
|
looking at data... recon went from 85kts in NW quad to 102kts on a east track in 5min for winds at flight level
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:23 AM |
|
Re: RECON
|
URNT11 KNHC 130609
97779 06090 60241 81300 30800 15051 04/// /3150
RMK AF980 0803A CHARLEY OB 07
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: report
|
Just another observation from Atlanta, but in checking out the Drudge Report website, at the very top iin Red it says "Evacuate" all in caps.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:26 AM |
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
I just wanted to post one last time before I go to bed. I appreciate each and every one of the people here. You are almost like family to me.
I am really on the verge of tears here because I don't know what's going to happen. I listened to Charley Paxton and he was so serious. ABC News Linda Gianaulli is almost in tears telling us about the seriousness of this storm. Her voice is shaky and she's trying really hard to put sentences together without a break in her voice. We rarely see the human side of a storm's impact, but when we do, as I am now, it's both breathtaking and heartbreaking at the same time. I don't know how or if my life will be any different on Sunday and I'm sure hoping it all of us in danger come out of this safely.
Two years ago today my father went into the hospital with heart palpitations and three months later he died. I miss him so much and I wish I could call him and talk to him right now.
I'm so sorry for going of topic, I just wanted to let you know how much you all mean to me.
Colleen
| bsnyder |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:27 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Be safe, Colleen!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:40 AM |
|
System Down Sorry
|
Sorry Site was down late last night. I guess I am not allowed to sleep
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:43 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Charlie looking to be a major storm at anytime now. 5000 without power in palm beach county from early morning band that came through
It is such an awfull feeling feeling of being cuttoff when this site goes down.
| Cathy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:48 AM |
Re: System Down Sorry
|
Been looking for you! Glad all is well. You are only allowed power naps till this thing is over! LOL Thanks so much for keeping this site up - it is a very valuable resource!!
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: System Down Sorry
|
John C, Just remember that your efforts in keeping site up are appreciated by so many. A great site. I am sure will be getting some great post this morning.
Hurric
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:49 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Quote:
Charlie looking to be a major storm at anytime now. 5000 without power in palm beach county from early morning band that came through
It is such an awfull feeling feeling of being cuttoff when this site goes down.
We were awoken at 215 with the first feeder band coming through. Couple of hoses in fort laud hit by lightning anf caught on fire and a mobile home had a roof blown off. THose winds were 40-50, imagine 100+. Sofla dodges another bullet but the season is very early.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:03 AM |
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
The eye seems to have become less well-defined in the latest infrared imagery.
Infrared imagery
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:15 AM |
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
I only wish I could count on that report. We are currently in Port Charlotte, FL and with all of the news people says this storm is going to go past us and hit Tampa noboby thinks they have to worry. What worries me is that the "probabilities" list from the NWS site shows we have more to worry about than Tama does for a direct hit. I sure wish they would update their maps to reflect what their "probabilities" list calls for during these storms.
Thanks for getting this site back up this morning. I will check back in when I can. One more check outside the winds should start picking up here within the next 3 hours according to the local news reports.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:18 AM |
|
|
|
FOWEY ROCKS WEATHER STATION
|
THis Morning at 1am the weather station at Fowey rocks just like 10 miles south of miami had sustained winds at 40 knts gusting to 46 knts roughly 45 - 53 mph
| Jeanine |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Colleen and everyone who is in the path or near. I hope you all stay safe and have taken the precautions necessary. Please let us know how you are throughout the day.
Jeanine
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: FOWEY ROCKS WEATHER STATION
|
Charlie should be passing close to this bouy soon ,winds 36knts from east, gust to 41knt
gom bouy
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:37 AM |
|
|
|
Momvement
|
Charlie is moving due north with wobbels east and west.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:43 AM |
|
Re: Movement
|
It seems that Charley has taken a jog to the east in the most recent frame. This might spell more trouble if Charley goes on a more easterly course, more inland and closer to Orlando. A tornado watch was just issued for Central Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:51 AM |
|
Re: Movement
|
Can anyone tell me how bad Naples/Collier County will be affected by this storm? THey say its moving NNW but it looks to me and many others obviously as due north. Did it turn to the north prematurely or is it right on schedule? When is it going to make its NE movement? watching and waiting :?:
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:53 AM |
Re:THIS IS THE SITE
|
There is no other site that is categorized as ground zero by title. History in the making for central florida. By the way Charlie is a Cat.3 now.
| tom5r |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:57 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
It seems the keys are out of the woods as Charley has passed us by. At 10:00 last night the first ( and only ) serious band came through Islamorada as if someone set off a bomb. There were tornadic storms reported up and down the keys as it went through us. It gave us a great light show with its approach. The lightning was fantastic, but the only problems I'm aware of at this point is that we lost our cable TV here. Man, just when we need it the most.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 11:59 AM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Is the NHC doing updates on Charley every 2 hours now?
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Good Morning all,
Overcast and eerily calm in the Orlando area this morning.
Anyone have a URL for the latest model run?
I've heard discussion out of tallahassee this morning that they expect the storm to come in between Charlotte Harbour and Tampa.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:07 PM |
|
|
|
Friday morning watching radar
|
Stayed up through the heavy rain band last night staring mesmerized watching cuban and key west radar. Beautiful storm.
That band that blew off the storm last night looked more like some outflow boundary and whole storm pulled in together after it blew away. Much like when that band blew off south of Haiti and then it intensified fast.. hard to say but was some band.
Watching Miami news with footage live out of Key West. So happy for Key West that it seems to have been spared the worst of it. Happy about that...really really happy as it is my second home.
Not too happy for Tampa/St. Pete.. looks like you are ground zero.
But everyone watch out because whole state can have twisters at any time.
NHC did a great job, great.. no words for how great they have been.
later, got a meeting/conference at work and better cable connection there
bobbi
stay safe up there... take care and follow the rules
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:14 PM |
|
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
Another Floridian here, northwest of the Orlando area. My weather is pretty much the same as yours; it is overcast right now with no wind or anything. We have yet to see a serious feederband come through yet (hey, maybe on did, I was sleeping soundly earlier
). But from what I've heard from others south of here, I'm expecting a pretty decent punch whenever we do get a feederband.Sitting, watching, and waiting...
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Friday morning watching radar
|
Hi everyone. We had our first brief rain squall at 4:45am EST, with a peak wind gust of 26mph. Current conditions are very calm...I expect conditions to quickly deteriorate around midday. Below are the current obs from my weather station just north of St. Petersburg, FL.
Wind: SE 8 MPH
Pressure: 1012mb / 29.88 In.
Total Rain: 0.04 In.
Will post again around midday.
Ronn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:16 PM |
|
Re: 11 pm Disscusion
|
There should intermediate advisories every two or three hours. May be position updates on the other hours. Discussions will only update at the normal advisory times, or if something extraordinary happens.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:22 PM |
|
Next Tandem of storms????
|
Just to break the monotony, there are two invest up that could be depressions in the next day or two. One all the way out at the Cape Verdes, and the other fairly far south well east of the islands. The cape verde storm will be a fish spinner if it forms that early. The other one could need watching. Could follow a similar path to Charley.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:31 PM |
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Re: Friday morning watching radar
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Yeah, I'll Second Ronn. A fairly powerful feederband awoke me at 10 till five in CB. Very strong winds, frequent lightning, and sheets of rain - then, as soon as it came, it stoped 10 after... and that was the end of any wind. Pure calm, with only lightning to the north.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:31 PM |
Is it just me....
|
is it just me or did it take a little jog to the east? maybe just a wobble
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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I saw the same thing.. Could be a wobble..
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:34 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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yeah, it definatly took a jog to the east - wait for a few more frames to see.
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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GM all,
I live just no. of Clearwater Beach, on the water and patiently awaiting for that jog to the east. I think I see it. While the car is packed, Any ideas on how long before we know if it might go in at Fort Myers? Tropical storm winds are suppose to start here in 1.5 hours. My surrogate home is about 10 minutes inland.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:39 PM |
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Forgive me for butting in here...
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what are you guys watching to see this jog to the east.
Great reading here!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:39 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Quote:
yeah, it definatly took a jog to the east - wait for a few more frames to see.
Remember that the trend is your friend.
Good Luck to all of those in the path of this monster .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:42 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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You can feel the excitement and tension for this one. Anyone in the affected area, please take photos if you can (even if you can't upload them for a few days down the road). It's downright bone-chilling in New Orleans today. The front brought us a nighttime low in the upper 60's (was 70 with winds 28mph out the NE when I woke up). Brrrrrr. We're suppposed to get back to 90 sometime mid-week. This is UNBELIEVABLE for August - about as much as a N moving Cat 2 heading for Tampa. I doubt I'll get much work in today
Be safe.Steve
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:48 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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If it'll help anybody, the accuweather radar as a grid option for a rough eyeballing of the track. Of course, eye wobbles are happening and it's general direction is north, but if anybody has access to the longer animation, output is appreciated.
By the way, Kimster, I'd say it's a good idea to move to a safe house, ten minutes inland should be safer, higher ground, but it's your call; other opinions?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:48 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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I will be taking some pics from the jax area. I will send them in asap.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:50 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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What concerns me is that the News Station that was proiecting this to go up to Cedar Key now thinks this storm has lost it westward component and may strike further south around Venice.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:52 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Also, if it helps, while looking at the radar, use the island that the eye is currently over as a bearing to previous and future images.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:53 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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yeah it looks like it curved to the east a bit. The news isnt mentioning this, but the are going against the NNW track and are sayin its pretty much going due north. But it seems to have shifted a bit.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:53 PM |
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Obs from Hollywood FL
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Partly sunny, WINDY out of the SE
Seas rough
VERY HAZY and HUMID
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:54 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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so how sad is it that I'm sitting in an airport using a wireless pda to read updates on this storm? best of luck to all of you in florida!
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 12:55 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Does anybody know if the eye is over the Dry Tortugas presently? It looks like it to me, how about you?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:01 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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yes, you are correct, advisory # 16B headline confirms that
...Hurricane Charley on track...eye moving over Dry Tortugas...
Winds remain at 110mph as of 9am
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:01 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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From the 8:50 TWD:-
RADAR FROM KEY WEST SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED EYE EMERGING INTO THE SE GULF WITH RADAR INDICATING
MID-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE 115 KT. SATELLITE SHOWS A MORE SYMMETRIC
STORM THAN 12 HOURS AGO WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND
SLIGHTLY COLDER CLOUD TOPS.
What would 115kts in the mid-levels translate to on the surface?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:06 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Just a quick note, we now have TD #4 in the east Atlantic.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:13 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Waiting
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:16 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Also from the 9 AM:
REPEATING THE 9 AM EDT POSITION...24.7 N... 82.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB.
Moving North Now
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:16 PM |
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Charley's coming
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Just finished reading all the morning's messages. Great information everyone!
Weather here is pretty nice so far. Full cloud cover but very little wind. We are under an Inland Hurricane Wind Watch, so we're expecting things to pick up later.
Looks like we had some weather pass over us sometime overnight as the patio is wet and there are some pine needles on the patio that had to have blown around off the nearby trees. But we both slept right through it, so I don't see how it could've been too bad.
About 30 minutes ago, the sun broke out for a few minutes. Probably the last we'll see of the sun until tomorrow.
More updates throughout the day. Everyone else, keep up the great work.
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:19 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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That last post was mine. Sorry. I thought I was logged in.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:25 PM |
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Re: Is it just me....
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Did they not upgrade the winds higher because its not intensifing, because it clearly looks like it does, or do they not have a plane flying thorough there telling them what the winds are? It really looks like a Cat. 3 storm.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:25 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Not to take away anything from Charley but we have TD #4 and Invest 95L.
Everyone stay safe and keep in touch with us as long as you can....
www.wildonweather.com/forum
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:32 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Hey Ticka, I didn't know you had your own site!!! Kewl.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:34 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Dig in everyone.
Won't have internet later today so I want to wish everyone
the best in the storm.
I'm in the Orlando area and if it moves a bit more East, we're in for one heck of an afternoon and evening.
I have to keep telling myself this is actually happening and it's not just a blob on a computer screen.
Strange how you track storms and when one is at your doorstep, it seems surreal.
At least, it's a fast moving storm.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:36 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Some people under mandatory evacuations are refusing to leave.
| HURRICANE EYE |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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i just ran a loop or the goes infared and the last four frames which looked to be about 2 hrs in time ,you can clearly see with the prior frames with a ruler placed on the screen that it was moving just slightly west of north, than the last four frames moves off to the ne,clearly moving away from the ruler placed on the screen , i could be wrong but that didnt look like a wobble to me, i will check again with the next few new frames, but if this is moving in that nne-ne direction , than naples to sarasota looks to be hit, what do you all think?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:39 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Wxwatcher2 know how you feel. Take care of yourself, don't be surprised if you lose power, and we'll all see how we come out of this tomorrow.
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:44 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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You always get a few like that.
I know of one in Tampa that isn't evacuating, and is forcing his two daughters to stay home. That's child endangerment. Seriously. The little one's only 7.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:47 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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The last frames looks like Charley has taken a premature start to his nne-ne movement. This would make it make landfall south of Tampa, and cross over orlando instead of passing north of it. Take it I'm in the orlando area, I think were going to have a heck of a afternoon.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:48 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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It sure is but what can law enforcement do? And this is one dangerous storm. You can't say it enough if you are told to leave do so right away!
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Thats not good because people south of tampa are not leaving. They are not even boarding up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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THE BEST TO ALL THAT IN IN THIS MONTERS PATH. THE N-NE MOVEMENT IS MAKING ME NERVOUS. I AM AT THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNT LINE AT THE BEACH
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Get ready for one afternoon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:02 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Hope everyone in Charley's eye stays safe. Have a sister in Orlando. May i ask what effects Charley will have in the Orlando area? Prayer's for everyone.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Here in north FL we've got a witches brew on the pot. Moisture left from Bonnie, the cold front that's going to turn Charley, and Charley himself passing directly over us is going to make for a hell of a day. Large thunderstorms building just to my west, tornado warnings, flood warnings, ect. Rain for us could be all the way through Sat morn/ aft.
That's a lot of rain. Over 10 inched IMO. Wow.
Models tended to the east this morning, NHC staying over a little more to west, but the difference may not mean much at this point. We in Florida are all within 24 hours of him now. Called work, place is a madhouse, just begining. N FL people do everything at the last minute
Last note: unlike early this morning, Charley has become very well rounded in his shape. It looked for a while that once he got past you, it would be over pretty soon. It's going to take a little longer now, so if he passes over you, stay hunkered down for awhile and don't rush to get outside. Be Safe. For those on the east coast beware of any rainbands coming off of the Atlantic. They can pull moisture and heat from the water and take on a life of their own. Ask anybody in Miami last night. SW-CEN-NE FL people: be and stay cool, we will see you on the back side of Charley.
Joe in Jax
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:08 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Quote:Well, the law says they *can* arrest him and then the children could be put into protective custody. They usually don't, but the law says if it is evacuation from a MANDETORY evacuation area, the cop *can* arrest the person violating the law. No, I'm not a lawyer, but the local sheriff was on TV last night talking about just that subject when asked by a reporter after hearing the evacuation areas.
It sure is but what can law enforcement do?
Question: I keep hearing that the nebulous 'someone' is now forecasting landfall as far south as Venice? That would imply they expect the track to go East of Tampa, perhaps even East of Lakeland as it moves NNE? I haven't seen anything official anywhere, Do you know who the 'someone' is? The answer to 'is it true?' would certainly change my plans here in Orlando from "I've packed the car with my valuables" to "Drive the car to your friend who lives in a sturdy home rather than my mobile home".
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Yep, the news here in Naples finally mentioned the NE movement. They didnt make it official and made sure to say that theyre not forcasting it to hit south of Tampa, but they seem to be worried about it
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:10 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Thanks, I haven't seen or heard this person either.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:12 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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TWC is also talking about it.
| firestar_1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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I totally agree. I'm set here and we should be ok, but with this turn looking like it's starting and with all of the attention on Tampa people are not boarding up around here. I'm guessing right now it may hit somewhere between Naples and Sarasota if this turn holds, and most of these people are not ready.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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I'm shocked that the live tampa tv feed still works after being posted everywhere. Does anyone know of any more radio station or tv links ?
Please be safe .
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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yep, even TWC Tampa -Ft. Myers/Naples. if people are not prepared, it could get ugly.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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AT 10 AM EDT....1400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
It's definitely taken a NE turn from the 9 AM advisory.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:18 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Very erie feeling this morning , dead calm, Sounds of hammers and saws as my neihbors take the last few measures available . We are as good as it is going to get , I do not live in a evac zone so I am fine Just playing a wait and see atitude with the eye of the storm. Will be updating as power permits . Be safe
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:20 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Quote:
Hope everyone in Charley's eye stays safe. Have a sister in Orlando. May i ask what effects Charley will have in the Orlando area? Prayer's for everyone.
This storm will affect a huge area and you should not just focus on where the eye comes ashore.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Just a quick question to anybody who can answer it - what's the difference between base and composite reflectivity on radars; which one's more reliable, etc...
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Charley is still moving generally north, perhaps very slightly east of north. Remember that just as easily as this storm has wobbled east, it can wobble west. My prediction is that Charley will move onshore in Sarasota. I definitely see nothing at upper levels that will force Charley sharply to the east, so I believe Naples should avoid a direct hit, in my opinion. But the NHC will probably adjust the track a little south.
Ronn
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:32 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Rain from other causes than Charley himself have started in Jacksonville. Something to soften us up for him, I guess. Thunder and lightning is getting to the point of a constant drone, and getting very close. What a great start to the day. It's off to work at noon for me until tonight, when Charley will race me back to my house. Hope I win.......
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Quote:This storm will affect a huge area and you should not just focus on where the eye comes ashore.
I understand that hardcore, this is a very small hurricane as far as wind and eye diameter 30 miles is not much for hurricane force winds , out to 125m is sustained 75mph winds with gusts, that is a little easier to handle then 120 mph winds , wherever it makes land fall the 30 mile swath will be devasted , And it is building .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Its dead quiet here in Maitland, 3 miles North of Orlando. No wind at all, just dead silent. Now I know what they mean by the calm before the storm, its very errie.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:38 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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TWC thinks anywhere between Sarasota to Just south of Tampa. as where it will come on land..
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MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Hey all I'm in downtown Orlando right now and very busy. Haven't had time to check the site since I've been here. Thanks to the rest for keeping it going. And good luck all here. Watching intently, best I can say now is start using local media to get info updates, because at this point other than some stats, we won't be able to tell you much more. Feel free to ask questions and hopefully someone monitoring it. In the last two days this site has had more hits and requests than the entirety of last year combined.
So apologies for the slowness related to massive traffic.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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965mb now
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:47 PM |
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Cat 3 now
|
URNT14 KNHC 131430
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
01262 10841 13156 10804 99005
02260 20839 23161 20806 99005
03258 30837 33156 30904 06018
04256 40835 43142 40905 05024
05255 50833 53134 51007 02018
06253 60831 63117 60808 07036
07251 70830 73063 71010 06043
MF250 M0828 MF073
OBS 01 AT 1333Z
OBS 07 AT 1357Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
01247 10826 13058 11010 22082
02246 20824 23119 20908 23058
03244 30822 33148 30808 22059
04242 40820 43165 40807 21050
05240 50818 53180 50805 21052
MF249 M0827 MF121
OBS 01 AT 1409Z
OBS 05 AT 1427Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 20050
RMK AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 07
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:47 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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The sun is shining. PArtly cloudy beautiful summer day in Polk. It is hard to believe a hurricane let alone a Cat 2+ could be headed our way. Intellect has overriden emotions and we are as prepared as we know how to be. We are inland and our greatest threat is wind and water(right now), Later on it will be varmints both 2 legged and 4 legged I am afraid.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:48 PM |
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Good morning all
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Nothing more can be said about this storm that hasn't already been said. In an effort to keep this site moving as quickly as possible, ALL anonymous posts will be deleted. You can post without logging in, but you must id yourself.
Best wishes to any and all in the path of this monster.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:49 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Yep, 965mb with the latest recon. it strengthening.
(I'll leave this one up because you [anon] probably didn't read the above message). Next anon post gets the ax
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:53 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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oops thats was me
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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The weather channel (Dr. John Nese) just confirmed what everyone is seeing, some eastward movement. He stated that if you look at the last 3 hours, its moving more eastward. They said they don't see anything that will make this move anymore westward. It's starting to get picked up by the same steering current that picked up Bonnie.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:01 PM |
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Charley from MyCast
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mycast.com is a great little service and one which was actually first mentioned on this site some two or three years ago. Personalized weather.
Anyway, here's the radar for Key West.
This is one scary looking storm. Hunker down all.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: Good morning all
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Morning LI Phil and thanks to Mike, you and everybody that keeps this thing going.
Sure you don't want to come on down and join the fun??
| MelbDave |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Can someone post the 11am update when it comes out... can't seem to get it from the NHC site
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:04 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032004
1500Z FRI AUG 13 2004
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM OCEAN REEF
NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER
BEACH FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 140SE 60SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.8W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 82.9W
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 82.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...135NE 135SE 25SW 25NW.
Still likes my house too much !!
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.8N 79.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 40.2N 76.8W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 46.5N 71.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:05 PM |
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|
|
Re: Charley from MyCast
|
Hey Shaggy:
What are the different types of radar images?
Base Reflectivity
This is a display of echo intensity (reflectivity) measured in dBZ (decibels of Z, where Z represents the energy reflected back to the radar). "Reflectivity" is the amount of transmitted power returned to the radar receiver. Base Reflectivity images are available at several different elevation angles (tilts) of the antenna and are used to detect precipitation, evaluate storm structure, locate atmospheric boundaries and determine hail potential.
The base reflectivity image currently available on this website is from the lowest "tilt" angle (0.5°). This means the radar's antenna is tilted 0.5° above the horizon.
The maximum range of the "short range" (S Rng) base reflectivity product is 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location. This view will not display echoes that are more distant than 124 nm, even though precipitation may be occurring at greater distances. To determine if precipitation is occurring at greater distances, select the "long range" (L Rng) view (out to 248 nm/286 mi), select an adjacent radar, or link to the National Reflectivity Mosaic.
Composite Reflectivity
This display is of maximum echo intensity (reflectivity) from any elevation angle at every range from the radar. This product is used to reveal the highest reflectivity in all echoes. When compared with Base Reflectivity, the Composite Reflectivity can reveal important storm structure features and intensity trends of storms.
The maximum range of the "long range" (L Rng) composite reflectivity product is 248 nm (about 286 miles) from the radar location. The "blocky" appearance of this product is due to its lower spatial resolution on a 2.2 * 2.2 nm grid. It has one-fourth the resolution of the Base Reflectivity and one-half the resolution of the Precipitation products.
Although the Composite Reflectivity product is able to display maximum echo intensities 248 nm from the radar, the beam of the radar at this distance is at a very high altitude in the atmosphere. Thus, only the most intense convective storms and tropical systems will be detected at the longer distances.
Because of this fact, special care must be taken interpreting this product. While the radar image may not indicate precipitation it's quite possible that the radar beam is overshooting precipitation at lower levels, especially at greater distances. To determine if precipitation is occurring at greater distances link to an adjacent radar or link to the National Reflectivity Mosaic.
For a higher resolution (1.1 * 1.1 nm grid) composite reflectivity image, select the short range (S Rng) view. The image is less "blocky" as compared to the long range image. However, the maximum range is reduced to 124 nm (about 143 miles) from the radar location
From NOAA's Questions about Radar Site
Steve
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:05 PM |
|
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
I found this site for the first time yesterday afternoon and have hounding it since. I have to say that everyone is awesome, and the information has been a relief for me as a single mom. I want to know more than what the news stations are posting. I have a funny feeling in the gut about this one. hoping the feeling is just a need for food (lol) All though I am on the eastward side we are still in a "zone" were from what I have seen, a little more "jog" to the east will change how it might impact us here. Is there still a possibility that with a shift to the east that we over here could see cat 1 winds? Everyone stay safe and our prayers are with everyone in the path of this "tiny" monster.
God Speed from the Fischer family.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:06 PM |
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11:00 Update
|
Hurricane Charley Advisory Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004
...Charley heads toward Florida West Coast...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from the
Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for the Florida West
Coast from East Cape Sable northward to the Steinhatchee river. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations
should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida and
Georgia coasts from Cocoa Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys
from the Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef...and along the South
Florida Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable...including
Florida Bay and Lake Okeechobee.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm watch is
now in effect for the southeastern U.S. Coast from Ocean Reef
northward to south of Cocoa Beach and from north of Altamaha Sound
Georgia to Oregon Inlet North Carolina including Pamlico Sound.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Flagler
Beach Florida northward to the Savannah River near the
Georgia/South Carolina border.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 25.2 north...longitude 82.8 west or about 145 miles
south of Sarasota Florida.
Charley is moving toward the north near 18 mph and a turn toward the
north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph...175 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible prior to landfall on the
Florida West Coast this afternoon or evening.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles... 45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 105 miles...165 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb...28.49 inches.
Storm surge flooding in the Florida Keys will be subsiding later
today. Storm surge flooding of 10 to 13 feet is expected near and
south of the where the center crosses the Florida West Coast.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet along and near the Georgia
coast in the next 24 hours with lesser flooding to the north and
south.
Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are likely along charleys path
across the eastern United States. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods.
Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of southern and central
Florida including the Florida Keys today.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...25.2 N... 82.8 W. Movement
toward...north near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...110 mph. Minimum central pressure... 965 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1 PM EDT and 3 PM EDT followed
by the next complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Lawrence
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:09 PM |
|
Re: Good morning all
|
Quote:
Morning LI Phil and thanks to Mike, you and everybody that keeps this thing going.
Sure you don't want to come on down and join the fun??
No I can see I-4 plainly from where I am at now and traffic isn't horrible, but the eastbound has noticbly more traffic, absolutely no way I'm heading toward the west coast. In fact, in a few minutes i'm heading east. I don't like what I see on the radar.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:10 PM |
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Re: Charley from MyCast
|
Thanks Steve, Much Obliged
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:10 PM |
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Re: 11:00 Update
|
Well, NHC says it still moving toward the north, Phil, can you get the 11am Discussion yet, or is it slow being updated?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
|
Just checking in from Lakeland.....right now it's just a waiting game here. Watching the storm I think it's just wobbling east back and forth, the local mets have not mentioned any change from the Northerly movement.
Will check in as weather allows. Starting to get feeder bands and some lights winds here. The batphone woke me up at 8:00am to issue a tornado watch for our area. Scared me half to death.
Take care all...stay safe, sound and secure.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 PM |
Ok......
|
ok, the NHC still has this thing moving N, but it damn sure doesnt look like that to me. But then again they kept sayin it was moving NNW when it was clearly moving N so
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: 11:00 Update
|
Looks like NHC is checking to see if the NNE motion that is currently happening is a trend... NHC told Orange County that it looks like the Hurricane will be closer than expected. Seems the evacuation to Orlando may have actually put people in the midst of hurricane. or at least Hurricane Force winds..
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:16 PM |
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
It started raining lightly around 10:50. It’s just about stopped now. Still practically zero wind. Went into town to get some Chinese food for lunch. Cars were lined up at the bank’s ATM. Both gas stations were pumping gas but were pretty busy. No lines, but every pump was being used. Publix closed at 10:00am. We’re on high ground so we’re not worried about flooding. This afternoon and this evening will definitely be interesting.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:18 PM |
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
MF249 M0827 MF121
Charley now a major hurricane!!! 120mph sustained gusts to 140mph per recon!!
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:18 PM |
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Re: Good morning all
|
Hey mom Fischer, welcome to the site. I've been on 4 or 5 years. It's always great. Hard to say what's going to happen in Cocoa until we know where Charley is making landfall. If nothing else, you should see some strong squalls and feeder bands (watch out for tornados).
Here's an interesting note from Derek Ortt of the U of M RAMSIS. He thinks there is an error in the 11am public advisory. He believes that the TPC purposely failed to upgrade Charley as per ACTUAL OBSERVED RECON information. His words (paraquoted) were, 'make no mistake about it. We're dealing with a category 3." Perhaps the next discussion will address the inconsistency.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:20 PM |
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Re: 11:00 Update
|
Quote:
Well, NHC says it still moving toward the north, Phil, can you get the 11am Discussion yet, or is it slow being updated?
Hurricane Charley Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 13, 2004
Aircraft...satellite and radar indicate that Charley remains on
track with an initial motion of 360/16. The global model guidance
is in fairly good agreement about the motion accelerating
north-northeastward during the next two days after which Charley is
expected to become extratropical. The forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory except adjusted slightly to the right. The
forecast track and intensity is for winds near hurricane force
along and near the Georgia coast as Charley GOES by and a Hurricane
Watch has been issued to alert to this possibility. A tropical
storm watch is also extended northward along the North Carolina
coast.
An eyewall dropsonde at about 12z indicated that the maximum surface
winds are still near 95 kts. A closed 10-mile diameter eyewall
persists and the pressure has dropped 5 mb to 965 mb during the
past two hours suggesting that there could be some additional
strengthening during the next several hours before landfall on the
Florida West Coast. Thereafter the GFS and other models show the
strong winds expanding on the east side of the storm as it moves
near the U.S. East Coast.
Forecaster Lawrence
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 13/1500z 25.2n 82.8w 95 kt
12hr VT 14/0000z 27.7n 82.6w 100 kt
24hr VT 14/1200z 31.4n 81.5w 60 kt...inland
36hr VT 15/0000z 35.8n 79.2w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 15/1200z 40.2n 76.8w 30 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 16/1200z 46.5n 71.0w 30 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 17/1200z...absorbed by extratroopcal low
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:21 PM |
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
First of all, thanks for this site...it's awesome!
If it is worth anything, the Kennedy Space Center is closing at noon. Yesterday it was their intention to operate as business as usual. It cost a lot of taxpayer money to shut down and it is a decision that they don't make lightly. Read into that what you might...but I believe they see a definite jog to the East which brings the East coast more into the chess match.
Thanks again...and please be safe folks!
Big Russ
Go Astronaut War Eagles
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:25 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Quote:
Its dead quiet here in Maitland, 3 miles North of Orlando. No wind at all, just dead silent. Now I know what they mean by the calm before the storm, its very errie.
Yep, it's terribly deceiving isn't it? If you've ever read Florida's Hurricane History by Jay Barnes, then you would see that the majority of the great storms that impacted Florida before the satellite and TV era were accompanied by unusual calms before landfall.
The track looks like it has been shifted south very slightly at 11:00 AM. If another eastward shift occurs, the Orlando area would have a greater chance at seeing a period of sustained hurricane force winds.
Also...why is the intensity being held at 95 knots? I guess the pressure drops haven't equaled wind increases yet. Don't be surprised if the storm strengthens rapidly this afternoon as it approaches our West Coast. Kind of like LaDainian Tomlinson bursting towards the end zone for the Chargers...
A matter of hours now. Stay safe everyone...
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:25 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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what source is this hardcore? can you get a link?
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Good morning all
|
For those in the Orlando area, CFN 13 has been airing all state and local briefings live.
It's great information.
Orange County Chairman: "It looks worse for Orange County now than it did yesterday" because the storm is tracking further east.
They are also asking that everyone get off the roads by 2 p.m.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:29 PM |
|
Re: Good morning all
|
I have a sister in Orlando and i'm trying to give her info on Charley. How many miles is Charley from Orange County? Anyone know. She's at work and isn't getting alot of information. Thank-You so much
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:30 PM |
|
Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
|
The press conference in Orange County just said that they are now expecting Hurricane force winds in Orange county now, and they are expecting Orange county to perhapes take a direct hit. Pray that this doesn't happen.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:32 PM |
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Ft. Myers
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looks to be the bullseye now
Ft. Myers Radar link
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:32 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
|
Does anybody really believe that its still heading North? Was it really just a wobble? Maybe HankFrank was right and Sanibel is in the cross hairs
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:34 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Yep. See above post
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:35 PM |
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|
Re: Good morning all
|
Longtime lurker, first time poster. Great website you guys run here. I'm checking in from east coast Florida, specifically Ormond Beach(just north of Daytona). One thing that stood out to me on the 11AM advisory was the "pull back" of the tropical storm force winds. Hurricane winds still exist up to 30 miles out, but the trop. storm winds pulled in closer to the eye going from 125 miles out at 9AM to 105 miles out at 11AM. Could this mean the eye is sort of tightening up preparing to strengthen even more? Just something I noticed. Right now it's overcast with little to no wind, but that's all set to change relatively soon. Everyone be safe out there, and keep up with the excellent posts.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:35 PM |
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Proof in the pudding...
|
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1055 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
.DISCUSSION...HAVE COORD WITH WFO MFL AND WILL BE ISSUING NPW AND
ZFP UPDATES SHORTLY TO GO WITH INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING FOR THE
ENTIRE INTERIOR CWA. WILL HAVE TO REVISIT CONSIDERING NUDGING THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
ISSUANCE OF NEXT OR POSSIBLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY PACKAGE.
Inland hurricane wind warning extended throughout all of EC Florida. Looks like we *could* see sustained hurricane force winds here. This is looking REAL bad.
I almost want to call this Floyd part two (from the west though), because we were expecting these kind of conditions from Floyd.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:40 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
|
LI Phil, your link doesn't work for us unless we register. Just thought I'd let you know.
NHC in the 11am props:
FT MYERS FL 86 X X X 86
VENICE FL 91 X X X 91
TAMPA FL 83 X X X 83
CEDAR KEY FL 71 X X X 71
As well as for me:
DAYTONA BEACH FL 54 X X X 54
JACKSONVILLE FL 58 1 X X 59
SAVANNAH GA 33 17 X X 50
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:42 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
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Quote:
LI Phil, your link doesn't work for us unless we register. Just thought I'd let you know.
NHC in the 11am props:
FT MYERS FL 86 X X X 86
VENICE FL 91 X X X 91
TAMPA FL 83 X X X 83
CEDAR KEY FL 71 X X X 71
As well as for me:
DAYTONA BEACH FL 54 X X X 54
JACKSONVILLE FL 58 1 X X 59
SAVANNAH GA 33 17 X X 50
Thanks. It's free and easy to register, but don't do so on my account (if you'll pardon the pun). It really is outstanding radar capability, updated every ten minutes.
JUST ANOTHER NOTE TO ANONS...YOU MUST ID YOURSELF OR YOUR POSTS WILL BE DELETED.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:50 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
|
Just a couple more observations from here in Atlanta. Just got off the phone with a friend of mine who works at Universal, and she did sound quite worried about the storm as they have been following the updates all morning. She said that she was going to go an hour south to ride out the storm. From all indications and this is just purely conjecture on my part, it looks like Charley is going to take a path following I-4, but that's my guess. Also, one of Atlanta's top rated talk show hosts, Neal Boortz, is caught right in the middle of it all. He was supposed to be in an event with Clark howard and Sean Hannity in Orlando tonight, but Boortz is caught there at Disney World. BTW, Charley has been the lead story on all 4 newscasts here in Atlanta.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:55 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
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Dr. Lyons is saying Ft. Myers now. 14' or greater locally.
tampa 9'. Thats from Lyons on TWC.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:55 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
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Dr. Lyons is saying Ft. Myers now. 14' or greater locally.
tampa 9'. Thats from Lyons on TWC.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:56 PM |
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Re: Ft. Myers
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Hard to say what the actual distance is from the storm to Orlando. At the 10:00 position estimate, the storm was 75 WNW of Key West, FL. The 'crow flies' distance from Key West to Orlando is 273 miles (237 Nautical Miles). In my mind, that puts it somewhere around 300-310 miles, but I don't have a map in front of me with scale of inches.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:56 PM |
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|
Key West Radar
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Hard to tell what direction Charley's moving, but it would definitely appear it's not due north. God help the gulf residents if this thing parallels the coast!
radar
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 03:57 PM |
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
We are now under a tornado warning until 12:15pm. Keeping fingers, toes and anything else crossed.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:03 PM |
|
|
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Re: Ft. Myers
|
Here's some good info from Southwest Florida:
Projected Path for Charley
and this one is excellent:
Radar Loop of Southwest Florida
The eye still looks to be going N with a wobble here or there to the E. No steady movement to NE. Yet.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:04 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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Looks to me like Dr. Lyons is right, Ft. Myers seems to be the target. Stay safe folks!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:05 PM |
|
Jogging to the EAST
|
Look.s FT Myers might be the new target
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:06 PM |
|
Re: Charley's coming
|
BRING IT ON CHUCK!!!!!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
|
Quote:
Looks to me like Dr. Lyons is right, Ft. Myers seems to be the target. Stay safe folks!!
Scroll back to page 12, who called Ft. Myers first? Of course, I deduced that just by looking at a radar loop. Dr. Lyons. Heh
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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Of course it's in Fort Myers - That's where Jim Cantore has been.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
|
Here's a good satellite pic of the Gulf and Caribbean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg
I know the BIG focus is Charley, but once again look East of the Lesser Antillies!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:14 PM |
|
Re: Ft. Myers sure looks like its coming in right of track
|
on right side
below tampa..will see, looks like its going ne now or nne to ne ..in meetings and cant get to computer for an hour
windy here, getting gray.. nice tho
steady winds
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:17 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
|
Another good weather site to download is Weatherbug. They have live cameras all over Florida. Some really good ones in Key West, Naples and Fort Meyers. They also have good weather alerts that will "chirp" to let you know any new warnings that happen.
www.weatherbug.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:18 PM |
|
Re: Ft. Myers sure looks like its coming in right of track
|
Kennedy Space Center sent all non essential personel home at 12pm today. Durung the morning I one of the radar images that was on the cabl eout here showed the forecasted track super imposed over the radar loop. You could definitley see the trend to the right. I am sorry I couldnt post more during the morning. Had to finish up some work befor eI left...
Troy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:18 PM |
|
Re: DEPRESSION
|
To top it all off a depression has formed in the far eastern atlantic and should be danielle by tonight according to the radio. I drive alot.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:19 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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With Weatherbug just be careful ... Adware programs could get loaded on ur computer.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:19 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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>>> Another good weather site to download is Weatherbug
It's also spyware.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:20 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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Weather forecasters in Orlando are not creating their own track, they are thinking this is gonna come further east.. They believe this will be veriified by NHC soon..
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:22 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
|
Bastardi has chimed in with his 3rd post of the day and should prove interesting for all you south of Tampa and east of there.
He notes the pressure falling (latest recon has it at 964mb) and that the frictional effects should begin to pull it more toward the coast (with landfall POSSIBLY even south of Venice). The explanation is that a storm moving toward a coastline from the western side will weaken the front side of the storm (NE) leaving the back "abnormally strong." This results in a replacement vector that tries to bring the storm inland until it resumes its expected path. Then the storm would run north (paralleling the coast) until it feels the water on the other side. This could mean east of Jacksonville then back in near Charleston or possibly farther north. While the TPC makes it extratropical after 48 hours, he's thinking easy shot at Cat 1 or even Cat 2 for a 2nd landfall in the Carolinas. Down the line, Chesapeake Bay/DelMarVa, eastern PA (which Joe believes will have very bad effects), NYC and on up. He also gave a headsup on his tropical update video today that folks in NJ/NY are in for a show today with rainfall amounts up to 4" in places and the shot at some pretty strong sustained winds. Last check on Bonnie's remnants had her near the NC/VA Border and headnig North fast.
Steve
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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The eye looks like it is going further NE and turning harder to the east than expected. That would send it out over Cocoa. That's the one place in the state that has been told it would miss the hurricane.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:27 PM |
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Steve
|
>>> Down the line, Chesapeake Bay/DelMarVa, eastern PA (which Joe believes will have very bad effects), NYC and on up. He also gave a headsup on his tropical update video today that folks in NJ/NY are in for a show today with rainfall amounts up to 4" in places and the shot at some pretty strong sustained winds. Last check on Bonnie's remnants had her near the NC/VA Border and headnig North fast.
Been holding off posting about my weather, as Charley is just a tad more important, but since you mentioned it...
It's pouring here right now. Bonnie's remnants soak us again this evening, and then Charley's remnants on Sunday. Plus, Charley might still be TS strength depending upon forward motion and track. We could be getting 10"+ in the next three days.
Now, back to Charley...
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:28 PM |
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|
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Re: Key West Radar
|
Looks like a definate track toward the central part of the state.
(Orlando Ch 6 weather guy is Wayyy to hyper fo my taste)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:58 PM |
|
Re: Key West Radar
|
HURRICANE CHARLEY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
...CHARLEY STRENGTHENS AS IT HEADS TOWARD FLORIDA WEST COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS WERE
RECENTLY EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO JUPITER INLET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
FROM THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO OCEAN REEF...AND ALONG THE SOUTH
FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM OCEAN REEF TO EAST CAPE SABLE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF COCOA BEACH AND FROM
THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF FORT MYERS FLORIDA.
CHARLEY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD
REACH THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF CHARLOTTE HARBOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
RECENT REPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. THESE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WITHIN A
FEW MILES FROM CHARLEYS CENTER.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.46 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL BE SUBSIDING LATER
TODAY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA
COAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LESSER FLOODING TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG CHARLEYS PATH
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...25.7 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 04:59 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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thats not good i live near the bay and floyd and isabel really messed us up. but the already have coastal flood watches up so i have to wait and see.
(i had some trouble get on the site did this happen to anyone else?)
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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125 mph! wow its looking bad for those in its path.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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Good luck to all those in the path of Charley.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:02 PM |
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Re: Key West Radar
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latest track is charlotte harbor. yeah i couldnt get on either.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:03 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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They better batten down the hatches. They just start evacuating other ares that they thought were to far south. but they are about to close the roads.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:05 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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Found this on the OrlandoWeather website:
"The latest projection from the National Hurricane Center could bring Hurricane Charley closer to Orlando. The National Weather Service issued an inland hurricane wind warning Friday morning for Lake, Orange, Seminole, Osceola and Volusia counties. The warning means sustained wind speeds of over 74 mph are expected for the counties in the warning area."
Looks like O-town could end up with some very bad weather, as well as Volusia/Brevard line northward. Somehow the people at my work haven't grasped the concept yet that this storm has 125mph winds and could be lining up Daytona Beach as an exit point after crossing Florida. All morning I've been hearing "oh it's over on the west coast, we're not going to get anything but some wind and rain". Sometimes ignorance is not bliss.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:10 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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remember also that it is moving at 20mph. That adds 20mph windspeed to it now. This doesn't look good.
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:10 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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We made it through the tornado warning with no sight of a twister.
A very strong squall passed through here around 12:35, lasting about 10-15 minutes. We lost Dish Network reception for about 10 minutes.
The latest advisory from the NHC bumps Charley’s wind speed up to 125mph, making it a strong category 3 hurricane. It is now moving more NE than expected. WINK tv in Ft. Myers is now cautioning viewers that Charley is heading more toward Ft. Myers than Tampa. If that movement continues, it will be heading straight for us too.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:11 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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***Deer in headlights look**** I am honestly scared now. I can't imagine how those that evacuated to Orlando and surrounding areas must feel about now. I have no idea what to do right now because they didn't tell me to be ready for this. I am stocked with water, but not prepared for no power and worse. Anyone that can tell me what to do, this mom and 2 kids would appreciate it. Ya'll have saved my sanity. I am heading to the garage to try and make room for the car. Good Lord, this is scaring me.
Good luck to those that feel like me right now.
MomFischer ( i like that!)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:12 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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This storm, this monster's new track is to go right over my house. I'm worried, but also something I didn't expect, I'm scared. I hope and pray for safety.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:13 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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That last post was me by the way.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:18 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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Good lord! 125 MPH and strengthening. And it's heading more south than it was projected to do. I am praying for everyone in Charley's path...godspeed.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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Kudos to channel 9 in orlando. ABC national broke in and said it was going to hit Tampa, based on the 11 a.m. forecast. Channel 9 came back on locally and said they needed to correct what ABC nationally said. Good for them. They also said that with the new track, Orlando could expect 95 mph winds tonight.
On a side note, a friend decided to be a dummy and stayed on Pine Island, which is now in the bulls eye. It's due west of Fort Myers, just north of Sanibel. The bridges off the island are now closed. Any advice for him other than prayer? He said the ocean is already over the seawall and flooding his yard.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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Here in the panhandle we went through Erin and Opal which was a cat3. I know how nervous and scared you must be . Have faith and try and stay calm even though that's easier said then done. Alot of thoughts are with you.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Does anybody know if Barometer Bob's java chat room is online? or is it just to busy to allow new connections? Discussion in there was great last year
Thanks, Grant
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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this is a monster! my prayers go out to those of you in there path. (it scared me for a moment Kelly on TWC asked "could it become a Catagory 4") sends chills down my spine
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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The weather station in jax said it was just upgraded to a cat 4 with winds of 145
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:23 PM |
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Category 4 storm now....
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Just wanted to post a note. Channel 13 in Tampa (WTVT) just reported on camera that a recon fix from the storm just reported max winds at 10000ft of 160mph, which translated to a ground speed of around 140mph. That would be Cat. 4 strength.
Not to frighten anyone unnecessarily. Just keep your eyes open, and be alert. This thing is changing rapidly, and there are at least 2 tornados on the ground also - Doppler radar just reported a tornado on the ground in Avon Park, FL moving north at 40mph, and there was another on the ground around Lake Placid, FL. I can't remember who was in Lake Placid, but be safe and careful, friend....
Londovir
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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twc just said they think category 4 by landfall.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:24 PM |
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Great shot of the monster YIKES
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Check out this scary image
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_35/anis.html
http:/www.hardcoreweather.com
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:25 PM |
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Mom Fischer
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Here are things you need to have on hand.
Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days
Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices
foods for infants or the elderly
snack foods
non-electric can opener
cooking tools / fuel
paper plates / plastic utensils
Blankets / Pillows, etc.
Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes
First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs
Special Items - for babies and the elderly
Toiletries - hygiene items
Moisture wipes
Flashlight / Batteries
Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio
Cash - Banks and ATMs may not be open or available for extended periods.
Keys
Toys, Books and Games
Important documents - in a waterproof container
insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card, etc.
document all valuables with videotape if possible
Tools - keep a set with you during the storm
Vehicle fuel tanks filled
Pet care items
proper identification / immunization records
ample supply of food and water
a carrier or cage
medications
muzzle and leash
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:28 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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she said higher winds were reported and it could be upgraded then it was a commercial.
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:28 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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000
WTNT61 KNHC 131716
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE CHARLEY UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
AT 115 PM EDT...1715Z...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT MEASURED 10000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 162 MPH AT A
DISTANCE OF 8 MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE. THIS GIVES
AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR
SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.
LAWRENCE
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:30 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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there you go its offical. thats all folks
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:32 PM |
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Re: Mom Fischer
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Charley is now a Cat 4 with winds of 140 mph.....
developing story,,,,out of Ch 8news in Tampa
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:34 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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they cut power in St Pete at 1:00 pm
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:39 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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I'm listening to WatchNet and I just heard that too.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:44 PM |
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It's personal even up here...
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A co-worker just mentioned she has family up visiting from Tampa...an older man and his adult son. That's the good news. The bad news, the man's wife and developmentally disabled daughter are still there. They haven't boarded up or otherwise taken any precautions to protect life and limb. As of about an hour ago, they weren't preparing to leave for a shelter. I just advised my co-worker to get on the phone and tell them to get the hell out of there asap. Hopefully they will heed the warnings...god this is scary.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:46 PM |
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Re: 1 pm
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It's also down to 954mb! That's a 10mb drop!
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:46 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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does anyone have the updated advisory?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:46 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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We had a local Tampa Bay announcement from emergency management to say to ignore the rumors of the variable landfalls predictions and to believe that the Bay area will take a direct landfall. This translates to a Catagory 4 storm coming in on a dense population of people. IT does not matter where the shelters are. They are showing the windfields in the bands and so far there are isolated pockets of 70 -100 mph winds. The south of Tampa Bay area is in for extreme storm surge.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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They have to cover their ass, but it's NOT going to make a direct landfall in Tampa. Cat IV is amazing. Andrew, if I'm not mistaken, is the last Cat IV (now a V) to make US landfall. This reminds me of 2002 when Lili was a Cat 1 in the Gulf. We decided to ride it out. Right before my eyes that sucker upgraded to a Cat IV in a matter of a few hours and I started second guessing our decision (probably posts about that somewhere in the archives of this site). Then, luckily, it crossed some of the cooler churned up waters near where Isidore had been 10 days prior and weakened to Cat 1 at landfall. It was a fun yet nasty day in the Big Easy but you gotta know I was getting a wee bit apprehensive there for a bit as I'm sure many on the Islands in and around the 10,000 Islands are now. Wow. Cat IV. Hopefully it will mesh with some colder waters when nearer to the coast and come in as a Cat 2 or Cat 3. Even still, y'all in Central Florida will be talking about this one for decades to come. That's the way these disasters work. Depending on how good/bad you get it, it will become the replacement storm that all future storms of the next 30-40 years will be judged. History. What else can be said?
Steve
| JimAnderson |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:00 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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Cat IV WOW!
Any estimate on time / tides for landfall. I have family in N. Ft Myers. They have moved to their Mobile Home Park's new shelter that was supposedly built in the last year to "hurricane proof specs". But with a Cat IV one never knows.
Jim
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:00 PM |
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Steve, please...
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>>> Thank you Steve.
I know you mean well, but perhaps a better choice of words could be applied to those facing hell.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:03 PM |
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Weather report from Pine Island
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My friend in Pine Island, just northeast of Sanibel, has had all the windows blown out on his house and the water is up to the base of the house.
He said it was relatively calm and then all of a sudden it just exploded on him.
Again, I ask if there are any tips for him to survive.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:15 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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Please tell your friend on Pine Island to get to the highest point he could get to, somewhere on the center of the Island. We just saw live TV showing the bridge open - there is a chance that the bridge is still open. Rick Santori of the WC was standing in front of thr bridge and vehicles were coming over...so maybe some hope. But if not...he HAS TO find a HIGH area with as much protection as possible!!!
We were just at Pine Island on vacation, and it is narrow and the water will cover it totally - wish I could remember what buildings were there...All I remember seeing there was TREES! He might try "911" and see if anyone can help him, too - maybe Coast Guard help.
Prayers going up for your friend!
Roberta Holmes
Sebastian, FL
We were
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:15 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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Tornado heading right for orlando. People there need to watch out. Has anyone seen the new/special advisory?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:17 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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Yeah, there's a lot more water coming in. Tell him to grab the nearest flotation device he can find just to be safe. A ski vest works best, but if you have to blow up garbage bags, DO IT. Nothing guarntees safety, but I'd rather be floating around a giant surge than swept away trying to swim through it.
Best of luck to your boy.
Steve
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:21 PM |
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Re: Category 4 storm now....
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Here's the dicusiion from the advisory:-
** WTNT43 KNHC 131813 ***
TCDAT3
HURRICANE CHARLEY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004
RECENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS ALONG WITH RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE TRACK
HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
FORECAST WHICH SHIFTS THE GREATEST RISK TO THE AREA OF CHARLOTTE
HARBOR FLORIDA. THESE CHANGES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/1800Z 26.0N 82.4W 125 KT
12HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 81.8W 100 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/1200Z 31.5N 80.0W 65 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 15/0000Z 36.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 15/1200Z 40.5N 74.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 16/1200Z 46.5N 68.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:21 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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wftv just siad 150mph now and 25 foot storm surge..any verification??? I am in and out bring plants in...
troy
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:29 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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Just had bad bad storm through Kissimmee on lake toho..
I'LL LEAVE THIS UP BUT PLEASE DO NOT POST ANONYMOUSLY
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:30 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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OMG, My sister is on her way home from work right now. I hope she doesn't get caught in this tornado. She works at Universal Studios.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:37 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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You can view the radars on line. I am sure your sister will be fine. Orlando will get something later and the good news is that is will be manageable...relatively speaking of course. I think they are saying 75mph in Orlando by the time it gets there.
Don't freak out reading some of the stuff on the list. Whenever a storm hits, some of us get "carried away" with adrenalin but look look at the data.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:39 PM |
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Looks like a Sanibel Island Landfall
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Radar
Looks like Charley's going to landfall just north of Ft. Myers. I'd estimate that would be approximately one hour from now.
Godspeed to anyone in Charley's path.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:41 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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Actually, the forecast has the storm just south-southwest of Orlando with winds of 115 mph.
We're about to get hammered in Apopka.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:42 PM |
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Re: NBC LIVE
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outer hurricane winds 2.5 mile from beach, eye 11.6 mile storm sanible beach.... they have live streaming video and on radar in fort myers........ very great coverage..... its will be ashore within hour
nbc-2.com
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 06:45 PM |
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Re: Weather report from Pine Island
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Quote:
Actually, the forecast has the storm just south-southwest of Orlando with winds of 115 mph.
We're about to get hammered in Apopka.
Not encouraging, considering I live in SW Orlando.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:26 PM |
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Charley continues to strengthen
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pres now down to 946mb. Is somthing wrong with site.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:28 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen
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I think the site was down.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:30 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen
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temp is also up in the center
| AmateurJohn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:31 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen
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Just went through another strong rain shower. No lightning, but lots of rain. We're also under another tornado warning until 3:45pm.
Watching Channel 28, ABC in Tampa, the meteorologist was announcing the tornado warning for Lake Placid and mentioned the Bob Sheets, former Director of the National Hurricane Center lives in Lake Placid. I didn't know that. Cool!
Wind and rain have died down again .... for now.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:31 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen
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Saw that. looks like we will have a CAT 5 at landfall. WOW. That is explosive strengthening. Ft. Myers is going to be destroyed. Hope everyone stays safe. I'm afraid this could be catastrophic. Remeber Joe Bastardi's theory on hurricanes that are strengthening at landfall versus those weakening. He says they are much more powerful. Needless to say, this name will never be used again. Charley is retired.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:31 PM |
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Charley continues to strengthen & changes direction
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There's probably so much traffic, the site has gone down again. It was down this morning and it may go down again.
Scary stuff happening. Charley's not behaving again, just took a north turn, maybe even north-north-west. This is not good, skirting the coast like he is. Heading more towards Tampa.
If you're anywhere near 100 miles from the eye, be prepared. He's definitely changing course.
radar
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:36 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen & changes direction
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Working on trying to keep this site up. Was behind Universal (near Dr. Phillps High School) when I heard Cat IV, at that point I stopped all Orlando activity and am now back in NSB. I4 was crazy, saw accident near Lee road on way back too.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:38 PM |
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Re: Category II Charley takes aim at the Gulf Coast of Florida
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Take care all of you,
Im watching from England, My Mum and Dad are out there, i love you very much, and wish i was there to help
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:39 PM |
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Re: Fort Myers
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Hi all, been lurking, just wanted to report that I have a co-worker who's sister is living in Fort Myers. She spoke to her at about 2Pm central time on the cell phone and they say it is bad but manageable...they are able to sleep. I guess that means that the worst is offshore.
Also, she said all their neighbors are notherners who have never ridden a storm out before, so there are lots of freaked out people in Fort Myers today. Will post again if we hear more from there.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:44 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen & changes direction
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pres now 943 mb. eye is even smaller c 6 . Ft myers just had a 72mph wind gust.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 07:53 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen & changes direction
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Radar seems to show the eye moving onshore. Seems to be moving more NNE now that it's grabbed the coast. Looks like a line close to Orlando.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:01 PM |
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Re: Charley continues to strengthen & changes direction
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watching, fascinating...
dont want to hear too much complaining, anyone south of tampa in a line from tampa to key west should have been prepared
mayfield said over and over that it could come in to the right or the left
and think the media is more to blame than anyone as they want to all stake out one particular harbor
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:01 PM |
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NHC Updates?
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Where are the NHC updates? Still posting the 2:00 stuff on their site.
Also, looks like Charley is landfalling at Boca Grande or Cayo Costa.
Anyone have any updates on wind speed?
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:06 PM |
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Re: NHC Updates?
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I am watching on NBC2 also. My lord, the water is more than half way the first floor on Fort Myers Beach and now Charley is right on top of Bokeelia, FL. The sun should be shining there as the eye sits on top.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:07 PM |
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Radar
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Anyone that wants to follow the eye of the storm on radar, go to www.my-cast.com and register. You can then center the radar on the town you want and zoom it in. You can move the radar town by town as the storm moves. I have it centered on Boca Grande right now and you can zoom right into the eye.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:22 PM |
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Re: Radar
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Charley's pressure has gone up 2mb to 945mb, probably due to interaction with land. Hopefully he will not remain at his current intensity for much longer.
BTW, to change the subject very briefly, TD #5 has formed east of the Caribbean.
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:30 PM |
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Re: Radar
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Take a good look at the latest GFDL. 95 knots south of cuba... looks like we will be doing this all over again next weekend....not even sept yet!
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:34 PM |
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Re: Radar
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The reporter for NBC2 in Fort Myers was in Port Charlotte and wasn't expecting much at first, but then when it made that move a little more north he is now getting a direct hit. He said Charley, which is moving right up Charlotte Harbor, is completely destroying Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. He said the water level is down 4 to 5 feet being just sucked out of the Harbor. God help him when he gets the back end.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 08:41 PM |
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Re: Radar
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The guy's name Todd and he is in the eye right now reporting live from the eye of a Category 4 hurricane. Amazing.
BTW, get ready to do this all again, the system east of the islands is going to be TD5 at 5PM, and the GFDL has a 95KT hurricane south of Cuba in a couple of days.
| andy8 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 13 2004 10:47 PM |
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Re: Radar
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Just watching NBC2 & reading these posts.....I pray everyone is safe & the storm passes quickly.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 16 2004 03:41 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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Quote:Turns out he was right, old-wives-tales apparantly *do* have some basis in fact.... We here in Orlando can testify that listening to 'the old wife', in retrospect would have been the right thing to do. When Charley went Cat-III still down SW of Key West, I began packing to evacuate my mobile home...I had a feeling that it would track east of the forecast. It did!
Poster: hurricane_run
Subject: Re: Charley's coming
Thanks, I haven't seen or heard this person either.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 16 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: Charley's coming
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I now have electricty !!!!
Charlie is gone.. It left lots of memories
Take care....