we have an active cat 2 hurricane, but it's quiet compared to the activity of the last two weeks. danielle moving northward now, shear influence apparent on the system. globals that don't shear it to bits and spin down the circulation are taking it over the azores as a weakening tropical storm.. that's the official and that's what sounds good to me. a rapid spin-down would result in a remnant low ambling around in the eastern atlantic for what could be days, but i'm not on board with that idea.
earl remnants.. running westward as an open wave like some of the globals were predicting.. the rabbit voodoo hex did the trick. some of the wave energy may work it's way across the lower rim of the BOC in 36-48hrs.. with some lingering troughiness in the area there's a remote shot at a disturbance there.. but probably no. there is a decent northerly flow ahead of the advancing wave.. it's very sharp.. but that's already moving onshore honduras. the wave axis is almost to the coast.. at cape gracias a Dios (cape thanks to God, but i like to think of it as cape gracias adios, thankyougoodbyecomeagain). earl's best chance of doing anything interesting is really to spawn a pacific cyclone.. august has been mighty quiet over there.
with earl settled, the next (and almost only) item of attention is the low amplitude wave near 10/32 at this hour. it's scooting along a bit faster than the general convergence to the west near 45w, and will possibly interact with the convection already there (perhaps a weak e-w trough there triggered by the passage of the wave that spawned danielle). globals have backed off on this particular feature, but i'm seeing less run-to-run consistency just lately.. they aren't getting the wave speed and timing right. thus the progression shown on gfs is unlikely to happen as indicated.. the wave of interest should be around 50w by thursday afternoon and possibly have spawned a low by then. i'm reckoning an invest out of this sucker thu/fri (maybe earlier, but don't think dvorak ratings will appear prior to then). this is low confidence, but feasible.
next wave coming off tomorrow, enough space between it and the current interest. globals picking up on it too.. have to see just what comes off.
hanging troughs in the subtropics have the outside potential to give us a hybrid cold-to-warm core system.. the one northwest of danielle is amplified enough to have some potential. weak trough of the east coast has some associated convergence.. pressure high though. not advertising these as being close to likely, just enough there to merit a glance.
we shouldn't have a new system prior to saturday; pleasantly unexciting day as we near the core of the season. not much reason for it to last very long. mjo negative ought to get back around by early september.. with SOI bursting negative every couple of weeks we should get more shots of activity in the coming month.
HF 2206z17august