Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 12:11 PM |
Activity Again
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Monday early AM update
Still no invest up on the wave near 27w, though it is trending toward organization. It's should continue to move slowly westward, and is likely our next named system. As Ed has mentioned, Danielle's remnant low has continued to persist and is throwing convection again as it is starting a second recurvature into the deepening mid-oceanic trough. It has a slight chance to regenerate. At this point the only other convincing concern for the week we're entering is the chance of development off the east coast from stalled front remains, under the strong ridge forecast to develop over the northeastern U.S. this week.
It is quite likely that we will have an active system by midweek.
HF
Sunday Update - 12:30AM
Caribbean wave looks like it may not survive the shear - not exactly unexpected. What was unexpected was the lack of movement with the strong wave SE of the Cape Verde Islands - system hasn't moved much in over 12 hours, so scratch the idea about rapid development. I still think that it will get there, but at a much slower pace - the GFS did move it slowly for a few days. The GFS also projected that a strong mid-Atlantic trough would bisect the Atlantic ridge and the new cyclone would turn north into this weakness in the ridge in a couple of days. The UKMET projects that the trough will not be as strong and that the ridge will hold - and moves the new system generally westward - I tend to favor the latter option. Earlier on Saturday, Danielle became an open wave and advisories are no longer being issued.
Original Post
Looks like the short quiet period is about to end. Seldom have I ever commented on a sure thing, however, the wave currently exiting the west coast of Africa fits this category. It has excellent structure and could reach Tropical Storm strength before the weekend is over. The GFS, which has done well with tropical systems this year, intensifies this wave to hurricane strength by mid-week. The system will encounter some shear for the next 24 to 36 hours, but after that, the green light for rapid development is on. The system should track west northwest - perhaps even briefly northwest for the next couple of days. The GFS takes the system more northwesterly, but upper air patterns suggest that an eventual track to the west northwest or even west should prevail. The system has the potential to become a large hurricane.
An active tropical wave has lifted out of the ITCZ in the last 48 hours and is currently moving to the west northwest at 15 knots in the eastern Caribbean Sea. This system has a good convective envelope that has held together overnight and it has a possible low level circulation near 14.4N 68.4W at 21/11Z. It faces some shear ahead of it. This shear should peak on Sunday and then slowly decline. If the system can slowly develop, it should move toward the northern Yucatan peninsula and then move more toward the northwest later in the week - perhaps toward the south Texas coast. Keep in mind that the development probability on this system is still rather low at the moment.
Tropical Depression Danielle is still around - drifting in the central Atlantic. Danielle may continue to drift for quite a few more days and has a small chance to briefly regain TS strength, but her ultimate fate is northward.
It looks like the week ahead will soon turn busy.
ED
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 02:01 PM |
Re: Activity Again
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Agree ED with your comments about the wave at east atlantic that looks good at this time.Now let's see in comming days what transpires with it but we are now at the real cape verde season period and to add to that the wet phase of MJO is spilling into the atlantic so definitly it is a big candidate for developing into Frances.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: Activity Again
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Ed, I wish they had better news this morning. I was hoping for a longer lapse in the activity.
The fast mover in the Eastern Caribbean is sporting a real nice picture on the visible satellites this morning. For those interested, and can make better of the info than I can, Barbados, Curacao, and Grand Cayman sent balloon soundings for 12Z-Saturday. They are available here.
http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/analysis.sound.html
Here's to hoping the current frontal passage kills the system in the Cariibean or GOM.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 03:25 PM |
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new wave
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i don't know about classified system before the weekend is out.. but yeah that's an invest later today. think gfs has the wave speed all screwed up.. but otherwise ed the prog you gave looks as good as any as far as track goes. i'm with you on the inevitable development.. but if it goes off say east of 40w that reduces it's chances of ever making it across.
the wave near 65w came to life overnight and has impressive convection (but the ramrod through shear look as well). that's what mjo can do for a system. if enough of it's energy gets into the nw caribbean and doesn't blow across cent. america, as gfs is weakening the low-level ridge periphery and turning it up into the yucatan/w. gulf area... yeah, there's a mid-late week shot at it doing something.
at the same time, trough energy left behind near the southeast coast will have a good bit of ridging building to the north.. the sort of thing that can cause it to hang in place and fester. by the middle of the week i wouldn't be surprised to see some of the disturbed weather from the shortwave currently traversing the southeast looking mighty interesting...
not going to ignore the kink in the itcz near 35w, ahead of the future invest/potential frances system exiting africa... gfs was interested in it a couple days ago.. if the wave to the rear doesn't overtake this high amplitude/low convection feature, it will meet favorable mjo conditions closer to the islands and possibly come to life as well. most likely it gets overtaken.. but just in case..
by the way.. last adv. on danielle.. still a good low-level swirl left. as that starts recurving, wouldn't be surprised to see it redevelop convection.. in a baroclinic environment of course, but still essentially a tropical feature. the upper trough to it's west that has been giving it hell is forecast to get a reinforcing shot and dive sw.. like a feeder into the TUTT (which has been noticeably absent this month).. it could also drag some disturbed weather southward through the subtropics... as a minor note.
anywho.. we'll get at least one storm next week.. possibly two. real stretch for more.
HF 1524z21august
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 03:34 PM |
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Carribean activity this am
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Been kinda watching this system over the past 12-18 hours or so... last vis sat pixs shows a strong outflow boundry to the west-northwest of the system, which certainly does not bode well for development any time soon... it is getting a little more attention from the NHC at the 11:30 outlook update...still hauling butt off to the west, looks due west at the moment, its still fighting the shear monster, and I just can't find any real or consistent hint of rotation at any level, at the moment...
be that as it may... its August, and we have a significant cluster of thunderstorm activity approaching an area that climatologically supports tropical development, satellite pixs are rather impressive, but NOT organized, and SSTs are right... anything IS possible
regardless, if any thing were to develop, steering currents as they stand right now, would in all probability take the system into central america, or perhaps the Yucatan., similar to the path of Earl...
bottom line, just a lot of premature speculation on my part as things still seem rather quite, but at least there is a little action nearby... that's what makes them so interesting to monitor....
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 03:43 PM |
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cape verde system in the works
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let me qualify that earlier commentary on the future invest/potential frances. gfs is developing the hell out of it.. getting it very powerful, and recurving it near 40w. that's because it initializes it and drifts it slowly for the first few days (unlikely it will move that slowly).. and in spite of tremendous ridging in the western atlantic, it considers a general weakness in the eastern atlantic to be enough to let it never get west.
this is somewhat feasible.. but i'm not ready to swallow that line just yet. if it develops early and gains a lot of latitude by mid week.. yeah, fully possible it will curve up at 40w. but this is classic gfs.. early recurvature of systems is a historic failure of the model (though it has been doing well this year). but i'm going to hedge my bets that it gets a lot further west.
HF 1543z21august
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: cape verde system in the works
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Been my experience monitoring these things over the past 30 years that anything that close to Africa, once developed, (if it develops early) rarely makes it across the Atlantic... sooner they spin up, better probability for a more polar motion over time, at least when they develop that far out, statistically speaking of course, but there are always exceptions... as nothing is concrete with tropical systems
now if it takes its time in developing then all bets are off....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 03:55 PM |
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Re: cape verde system in the works
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If this sytem deveolps, any idea which path it will take, a guess maybe? East Coast or Gulf Of Mexico? Thanks
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 04:18 PM |
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Re: cape verde system in the works
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This thing is so far out it would be hard for me to even make a good guess... all depends on when it develops as it has so much time to be influenced by a plethora of potential steering possibilities... development defined as being at least a strong tropical storm or Cat 1 storm,...
what the heck, lets have a little fun with this.....
Best guess.... with early development (off coast of Africa)
Not sure...............13%
Fish spinner........75%
East Coast...........10%
GOM...................... 2%
Best Guess...... with late development (midway across Altantic)
Not sure...............10%
Fish spinner........55%
East Coast...........25%
GOM.......................10%
Best Guess...... with real late development (close to the windward islands)
Not sure.................10%
Fish spinner..........05%
East Coast.............40%
GOM........................40%
Central America......5%
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 21 2004 07:49 PM |
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Re: cape verde system in the works
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Tend to agree with what everyone here has said, so I won't repeat the obvious. I think this one will be slow to develop, which may not be such a good thing. The shear, SAL and dry air seen on this wv loop seem to be taking their toll at the moment. At this rate, I doubt we'll have a system before the weekend is over (as HF pointed out), and as of this post, there is not an invest, so probably not until tomorrow.
I'm not buying into the GFS just yet, despite it's rather good record this season; I think this does become TS Frances before 40W, but no more than that. If it does make it to 40W at that intensity, then we may have a problem on our hands. Way too early to say we have a problem, only that at this point in the season, late developing CVs must be closely watched. I'm rooting for a fish spinner, but am going the slow development route...I hope I'm wrong (I haven't had crow for a whole week, so I'm hungry).
Happy birthday shout out to COOP, and go check out the storm forum and take the HF challenge.
Cheers,
LI Phil
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 01:06 AM |
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Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system
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Well, I just got back from volunteering/helping out in the Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte area., video and still pics of the damage does not do justice, when you see it with your own eyes like I did today, it is just unreal. The real damage or where the eyewall went thru was about 10-12 miles wide and within that zone there are buildings literally flattened, many roofs off, and trees snapped in half. It will take that area probably 3 to 5 years to fully recover. Some good news though, most of the power is back on in the area.
Back to the tropics, I don't see anything imminent developing, but the CV wave I think will have a good chance as it moves further west, everywhere else it seems pretty quiet for mid to late august.
TG
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: Charley damage/ Cape verde system
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What a kind and considerate thing to do on your part in volunteerism! Also, It is good to hear that the electricity is getting back to them. It is a relief to look in the Caribbean tonight and see that the little wave has sort of disappeared. I am looking forward to at least another week without any tropical threats to worry about. Florida needs a rest.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 03:33 PM |
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epac and mjo
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It would seem from looking at loops of the epac and the mjo that it is coming to life on cue. As it moves our way I wonder if it will be in our side of the water during the peak of the season. Interesting to watch.
Also saw Norcross on local interview this morning talking about the need to make sure people in the cone know the odds are the same within the width of cone and no higher odds in the center where the line is than the right or left and that we should change the way we broadcast the danger of the point of landfall.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 04:15 PM |
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Re: epac and mjo
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That is a good idea. Also for the local mets, they should be less interested in the commercial aspects for their local stations and more interested in meterology. The little snappy come-ons have no place in storm forecasting.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 07:33 PM |
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Re: epac and mjo
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The CV wave appears to have gained a little deep convection this afternoon. While it is a long way from becoming our next system, it is most probably only a matter of time. Interesting to note that if it does become Frances, that will be the last time the name is used.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 08:20 PM |
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Last dance with Frances?
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Hello James:
When the CV wave develops (only a matter of time) why do you say it will be the last storm named Frances? Are you predicting a major category storm with utter devastation?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 08:32 PM |
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Re: Last dance with Frances?
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I don't think that it will necessarily develop into something big, and I certainly hope that it doesn't do any damage, but this is why the name will be retired regardless:-
"The Committee recalled that, at its session in 2002, the delegate from France requested consideration of a change of the name “Frances”, which is on the list for 2004, to be made at this session. The Committee agreed to change the name after the 2004 hurricane season."
That is from the website of the World Meteorological Organisation.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 10:37 PM |
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Is the wave dancing?
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Okay..the wave looks a bit better tonight. Maybe we can wait out another 24 hours and get to that point where the NHC has indicated it has a chance to develop more.
Still think we are a few days away from any real action.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 22 2004 11:59 PM |
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Re: Last dance with Frances?
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taking down frances.. another brilliant french idea, right up there with the maginot line (although not as dumb as freedom fries, i must admit). still no invest in the atlantic.. a full 24 hours after i'd have expected. wave near 25w probably has a broad surface low and i very much expect it to be a tracked invest tomorrow, and possibly a classified system by noon tuesday. it's just doing everything more slowly than i'd have expected.
future track past 3-4 days is iffy. should it be a tropical cyclone by later in the week, the atlantic ridge have a weakness in the middle out near 40-50w. the upper ridge building westward with it should yield to a strong subtropical/TUTT type jet tearing ENE out of the caribbean in it's path.. a classified system will respond to this by turning right. once past that.. though the gfs fails to indicate this.. the strong deep layer ridge near the east coast should draw it back westward underneath.. that's what i'm expecting with the system, anyhow.
various stuff in the subtropics merits watching, with nao positive setting in. danielle's remnants and the mid-upper system immediately to the west have a chance to deepen as they are drawn northward into a baroclinic system (the trough that will weaken the atlantic ridge in the middle).
near the east coast frontal remnants are going to be hanging offshore under an upper ridge all week.. pretty much every one of the globals is forecasting low pressure to form off the east coast.. nothing deep at this point, but globals don't handle tropical development very well anyway, only point to it's potential in most cases. anything that forms out of that this week will be bothering someone, probably in the carolinas.
caribbean wave vanished as quickly as it blossomed yesterday.. very little chance it will do anything.
eastpac invest 98E is getting very active, more signs mjo is coming into play.. waves that look totally inconspicuous are likely to perk up as the influence of negative mjo becomes stronger.
globals looking very funny as of late.. possibly an offshoot of some strange weather anomalies we've had this year. confidence is lower than usual..
HF 2359z22august
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 02:22 AM |
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Re: Is the wave dancing?
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This is really a test message to clear up a post linking problem, however I'll use it to mention that the CV system is starting to gather some convection again - and it is still stationary at 25W at 23/00Z. Interesting to note that former T.D. Danielle is also sparking some convection this evening.
Cheers,
ED
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 12:07 PM |
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Re: Is the wave dancing?
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Today seems that the wave will become somewhat stronger from looking at the overall pattern it's seems to have in the loops, I think because of day-time heating. Though it will have to overcome some dust in it's path, such as some SAL that's seems to be stuck in its circulation. But we still can't rule out the possiblity of Tropical Cyclone devlopment, it still has a chance and it's not over until the cow jumps over the moon as I say.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 12:39 PM |
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96L invest for east atlantic wave
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ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040823 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040823 1200 040824 0000 040824 1200 040825 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.0N 26.8W 8.3N 28.5W 8.7N 30.3W 9.3N 32.2W
BAMM 8.0N 26.8W 8.5N 28.2W 9.2N 29.9W 10.1N 32.1W
A98E 8.0N 26.8W 8.1N 29.0W 8.3N 31.4W 8.7N 34.0W
LBAR 8.0N 26.8W 8.2N 29.1W 8.7N 31.6W 9.2N 34.5W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 45KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040825 1200 040826 1200 040827 1200 040828 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 34.2W 13.2N 37.8W 16.2N 39.2W 18.8N 39.6W
BAMM 11.1N 34.5W 14.0N 38.7W 17.0N 40.6W 19.7N 41.6W
A98E 9.3N 36.5W 10.9N 41.4W 12.6N 45.9W 14.3N 49.3W
LBAR 10.0N 37.7W 12.4N 43.9W 14.4N 47.4W 17.1N 46.9W
SHIP 53KTS 67KTS 71KTS 73KTS
DSHP 53KTS 67KTS 71KTS 73KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.0N LONCUR = 26.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 8.0N LONM12 = 24.8W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.3N LONM24 = 22.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Here are the first model plots for 96L.It looks not too organized right now as east shear is affecting it.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 01:10 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave
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It looks like the quietness has subsided and will now be a memory, it seems from here on in that there will be a lot more tropical systems forming, especially from looking at Africa's Tropical Waves the next two look pretty good.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 01:13 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave
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I forgot to login before writing that above.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 01:41 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave
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NRL seems to be showing this Invest as 96L and 90L, at the same time. Is it an error?
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 01:47 PM |
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Re: 96L invest for east atlantic wave
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Surely that is an error because both show the same system in the pics but the order of the numbers is 96L for it as before Earl was a storm it was 95L.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 02:56 PM |
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Re: Activity Again
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Latest from Morehead City NWS. Interesting to note that the 25/55 coordinates are not much different than Isabel, which was 22/55 at one point:
ENDING UP ON A TROPICAL NOTE...REMNANTS
OF "DANIELLE" BUT A MEMORY SOME 775 MILES SW OF THE AZORES...WHILE
THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXITED THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL
DAYS AGO HAS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG JOURNEY
ACROSS ATLANTIC. INTERESTING TO NOTE...AND IF IT WHAT NHC SAYS COMES
TO PASS (I.E.,FURTHER DEVELOPMENT)...GFSLR BRINGS FEATURE ON A SLOW
WNW JOURNEY TO A POSITION WELL N OF THE WINDWARDS (25N LAT/55W LON)
BY THE START OF THE NEW MONTH.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 03:17 PM |
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Re: Activity Again
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Sounds like Danielle may make her comeback pretty soon:-
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DANIELLE...CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER
AND...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD POSSIBLY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD AT 10 MPH.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 04:06 PM |
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Re: Activity Again
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Danielle could be upgraded later to day to subtropical (if they even do that once something is classified as tropical) or tropical depression--not much convection around the center, but very well-defined LLC. interesting question here--what is that to the north of it?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: Activity Again
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The 2:05 TWO says that a low is starting to develop on the CV wave. There is also a small flare-up of deep convection occuring.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 07:29 PM |
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is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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Seems like its hardly moving compared to some of the early waves. As for Danielle.. guess she likes to dawdle about and ramble around in circles. She's looking pretty good on the Invest. I noticed the NRL took a long time in dropping her.
Like the wave still over Africa.. beautiful wave. Nice tight circulation.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 07:48 PM |
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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Since Danielle isn't moving fast it has a better chance of devloping . It might even become a sub-tropical depression by tom. The next two waves look really good and could become the next two named systems and the invest that we already have is coming along quite well. Seems very active in terms of able-to-devlop tropical waves.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 08:00 PM |
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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The CV wave is being recurved by the GFS which maintains its natural tendency to recurve systems forming in the far eastern Atlantic. With the redevelopment of a TUTT in the central Atlantic, that goes without saying. Storms that form early will find the weakness. But those who wait a while, will come underneath whatever weather patterns are in the western Atlantic. Btw, check out the global SSTA's today on the OTIS Model.
Bastardi was supposed to release his landfall intensity scale update text today with the video due out tomorrow or Wed. But instead, he only issued a 14 mintue tropical udpate. If what his "Remainder of the Season" update says comes true, then we are in line for a historical landfalling year as far as effects (remember, his landfall intensity scores are based 50% on pressure and 50% on NHC classification modified by actual observations in a specific zone). Of note, Texas has been reduced (the idea that with each passing day toward the fall, chances of a Texas hit diminish). However, Texas is still within the TS-Cat 1 range.
The Louisiana zone is the biggest mover. It was originally slated for 3.7 but now is at 11. This corresponds with the eventual threat shifting eastward to the north central gulf (in line with 85, 95, 98, and especially 2002 where the Water Temperature Profiles are very close). The Mississippi-Panama City Beach zone is equal the LA zone (11 corresponds to between Cat 1 and Cat 2 conditions occurring. This doesn't mean that Cat 1or Cat 2 conditions will be felt with only one storm as it could be the cumulative effects of multiple storms - TD's, TS's, Cat 1's, etc.). The Carolinas are 3rd in remaining intensity with the SW coast of FL tied with Texas for 4th. Cumulative TS effects are still predicted for the Eastern Seaboard, New England and the Canadian Maritimes.
So as noted above, if the US and Canadian coastlines reach his "remaining landfall" totals, 2004 will go down as a record (historical) season for landfall effects. The average (and I think this is over 40 or 50 years) was 36.3 until last year nudged it up to 37.2. He's already scored over 60 points with around 66 points to go. If he's clued in properly, strap on dem dere seatbelts.
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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that's a real interesting post Steve... that's one of the unique approaches that I like about Joe B, quintessential example of "thinking out of the box" ..... and if it comes to fruition things could get cranking hot and heavy in the GOM during the remainder of the season... I don't see anything happening any time soon but things can and do change often this time of the year.... the next 6-8 weeks could be quite a show.... hope its not too much a show though..
for today however, all we really have is the 96L invest, and chances are it will be a fish spinner more than likely... a weak wave in the western Caribbean not doing much, and finally a cluster of thunderstorms in the Bahamas.... which initially looked to be part of some type of ULL feature... regardless, neither of these two areas closest to the CONUS are going to develop, and if they did, it would be slow process... so I don't see any real threat to the US for at least another week or so....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 23 2004 09:10 PM |
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Quick post from the 'sick bed.'
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Got a summer cold. Wonderful, stayed home from work AND off the computer all day. I'm not so sure that the slow development with 96L is such a good thing. It probably deserved an Invest Saturday, but looked terrible yesterday. Finally got one today. Moving rather slowly considering its location...fairly far south. WPAC & EPAC really ramping up, so it's just a matter of time for the Atl. Frank already a hurricane in the EPAC and two strong typhoons in the WPAC. Should stay fairly quiet here for a few days, although JB still watching for a homegrown storm either in the GOM or off the FL coast late this week. Didn't watch JBs video forecast, but Steve brought forth some interesting snippets, I'll have to check it out.
Time for another shot of Vicks44...
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 09:24 PM |
Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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Why are some calling 96L a fish spinner. It's just a wave and the models are useless till it's Frances. When it's a storm and the trough sucks it up, then and only then it will not be a threat. :?:
| Frank P |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 09:33 PM |
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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some of the models are showing a weakess in the ridge down the road and accordingly want to pull this system north out to sea... climatologically, systems that do develop this far out are fish spinners as a rule, however, there are some exceptions to the rule... granted this system has not developed, and the longer it takes to develop, the more west its inclined to go... nothing is a SURE bet, so we just wait and watch...
| Steve |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 09:34 PM |
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Re: is the cape verde way a real slow mover?
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Lonny,
The US model suite (AVN/GFS) had been calling for development and recurvature. It remains to be seen if that's the case as the GFS has been doing that with waves all year (too early on development = too early on recurvature). I think I screwed up in my other post about the intensity with the corresponding landfall effects. So just adjust that post with the following: TD = 1, TS = 2, Cat 1 = 4, Cat 2 = 8, Cat 3 = 16, Cat 4 = 32, Cat 5 = 64. A Cat 2 can be anywhere between an 8 and a 15.999999x depending on its pressure relating to the highs and lows of each category. So technically Texas would be between Cat 1 and Cat 2 still rather than TS and Cat 1. /my bad
Steve
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon Aug 23 2004 11:14 PM |
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longtracker season
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we're past the dog days.. time for some longtracker action. invest 96L i'm slating to be the first longtracker of the 2004 season.. danielle didn't get far enough west to really qualify. gfs seems to be slowly coming around to my way of thinking(mostly, anyhow).. no longer feeding the invest into the mid oceanic trough. figuring on a stair-stepping track with it.. probably will move mostly northwest once it develops, for the first few days.... then contend with the upper trough.. then come west under whatever ridge is in the western atlantic. this will take days to happen, and it's useless to say how much ridging will be near the east coast later in the forecast period as the model resolution is low and changes with every run. timetable hard to nail down because the system is hanging on the itcz and broad.. expected a classified system by now.. but still should be by wednesday.
various globals indicating low pressure will develop east of ga/sc in the next couple days; energy left behind by the shortwave currently exiting the region. another case of hard-to-nail timetable.. but definite development potential with this feature by week's end. region from sc up to new england would potentially be affected by said system, variables of intensity and location of development to be worked out.
danielle still trying to redevelop.. still slim chances. it's under too much shear to hold down a cdo.. as it accelerates it may begin to hold some banding convection for long enough to re-intensify some.. of the opinion it shouldn't have been operationally downgraded to begin with, but not losing any sleep over it either.
subsequent waves emerging off africa are being picked up on and developed by globals, but the specifics are unreliable for now. suffice to say we could easily have a frances from 96L and another development by labor day weekend.
frank rapidly developed today in the eastpac, and t.d. 9e is trying to perk up as well.. estelle's counter starts on the 24th and runs through the 29th.. the new systems in the eastpac may be telegraphing development from the 28th through september 2nd. also, soi going positive for the first time in a while. subsequently nao positive phase may linger for a while, give us some of those meandering longtrackers.. and keep the potential for subtropical development active.
HF 2314z23august
| Tropics Guy |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 12:08 AM |
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Re: may not be a fish
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I agree with HF's take on 96L (future Frances), looking at the gfs models, if you believe those models, takes the storm north of the islands, but then may get caught under some east coast ridging east of the Bahamas by day 11 (Sept 3rd), and probably continuing to move in the general direction of the east coast of the U.S. Think a 11 day forecast out is pretty unreliable, but lets see what happens, first of all it does have to develop, and then we'll see the model runs for it. Here's a link to the 11 day out "fantasyland" forecast of the gfs:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_85v_264m.gif
TG
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 04:34 AM |
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may not be a landlubber either
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always more likely that any given storm out there will recurve, but those early progs by gfs were sorta off-looking... whatever part of the pattern that may be planning to tug this baby out away from land probably hasn't been identified yet.
expecting a named system tomorrow. the convection looks solid and intense like a particular invest 98E did last night, about eighteen hours before it became hurricane frank. not expecting that rapid a development, but do think 96L is well on it's way to being a tropical storm.
gonna keep harping on the close-in development potential.. frontal wave currently east of the carolinas is peeling out.. models identified it and are taking it out on the tail of the shortwave.. whatever is left behind it should stick out there for the next few days and try to develop. we should have an idea of the particulars by wednesday afternoon.
danielle's convection is going off stronger than it has for days, now that the nhc outlook has stated it's redevelopment chances are closed. diffluent path near the exit region of that upper low to the northwest.. did the trick. danielle may redevelop briefly tuesday into wednesday.
feel safe in saying this: we're looking at 2-3 new systems in the last days of august.
HF 0434z24august
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 01:10 PM |
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Re: may not be a fish
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IF thats a fish... she's one of those colorful Bettas.. sitting there in her little bowl just East of the Cape Verde islands waiting for us to put her into a bigger container before she swims anywhere.
Looking very much like a TD today if not already a TS.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 02:19 PM |
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Re: may not be a fish
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I expect it to be named by 5pm today. Very impressive already!
http://www.hardcoreweather.com
| Keith234 |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 02:31 PM |
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Subtropical System and Frank
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There seems to a mid-latitude cyclone from the past cold front that traversed the East Coast of sat. in the Alantic Ocean, off the coast of the South Carolina could this be what the models picked up on. This system is now organizing and starting to spin up.
Frank is very impressive, it's showing some very strong convection, if it contiues it might even form an eye today, it should be a named system by 5P.M today.
| SirCane |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 04:31 PM |
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Re: Subtropical System and Frank
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Does look impressive,
any idea where it may go?
| scottsvb |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 04:32 PM |
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Re: Subtropical System and Frank
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No eye will form today if your talking about Frances not Frank. It will be few days before that happens. System off GA and S Car is still disorganized but could slowly become better organzied with the next impulse coming down from the nw during the next 24-36hrs. scottsvb
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:04 PM |
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50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early
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http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/96LALLMDL.html
The Italiano spaghetti and meatball run per Hurricane alley.... early model runs leans towards a fishing expedition, however, some disagree.....
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:12 PM |
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Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early
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only 4 show fish cane. most 7 show w or wnw. and even those that show nnw that could end and turn to the west.
| Frank P |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early
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I think you need to recount chief... I count 6 with a definite north component... and one other moving NW in a position putting it well out to sea, which in all probability would make it a fisher... then I count another 3 moving on a good WNW track and 3 moving basically west... that pretty close to 50% IMO
6 n
1 maybe nw but far out to see...
3 wnw
3 w...
still looks like around 50%....
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:26 PM |
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this is reasonable
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For where the system is presently located and its present stage of development, a 50/50 chance of it either fishing, or perhaps on the other hand impacting the islands or CONUS seems quite reasonable based on climatology and early model runs.... right now I wouldn't bet against either.... or on either
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:32 PM |
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Re: 50/50 probability on fishing with 96L per models... still early
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6 are going w or wnw......
| joepub1 |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:40 PM |
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Re: this is reasonable
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PR has this to say.....
"it has been rather quiet in the atlantic and there is little to change that in the upcoming week. the tropical disturbance noted out at 10 north 30 west will likely develop during the next several days but it will almost certainly move northwest and out into the mid atlantic due to the weakness in the mid atlantic ridge. "
You can see that their not worried.....yet.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 05:48 PM |
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Re: this is reasonable
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So where does the NHC go with the initial motion call at (presumably) 5:00? In the middle of guidance, on the model that has been most reliable in '04, etc.?
do us a favor and ID yourself anon. that doesn't mean register necessarily, just fill in the name block. you'd might as well be one of the voices in my head, otherwise. -HF
| rmbjoe1954 |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 06:00 PM |
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Re: this is reasonable
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The NHC would most likely determine the path based on what the majority of reliable models would be forecasting. Changes are made depending on the status of all variables that go into the decision tree that determines where the system goes based on size, speed, trough locations, etc. That would be my unreliable opinion.
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 06:55 PM |
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frances forthcoming/southeast coast
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sort of amazed ssd hasn't rated 96L yet. be kind of unusual for a system to go from unrated to a classified system. agree this should be a depression at 5pm.. solid convection, some banding features, obvious wind closure in the low cloud field nearby.. far be it from me to understand why this won't be t.d. 6 at five.
my version of the forecast for this thing is as such: wnw around 15 to past 40w early thursday, nw til the weekend.. mid oceanic trough fills, west early next week. it's that simple. intensity harder to prog.. think hurricane by thursday, but conditions deteriorate during the weekend as it gets some upper sw-erly shear (unless my track idea is badly mistaken).. then recovering conditions next week as it goes westward under the ridge. this will probably, almost surely, be a track north of the islands.
there is a low forming east of jacksonville/brunswick today, around 30.5/80. some upper westerly shear present.. which ought to slowly taper down over the next couple of days. i'm thinking this feature is the development threat for this week near the east coast. should remain quasi-stationary through early thursday, possibly begin taking on a tropical appearance. slow developer if it's going to do anything... if the model ideas are right it should move north or nnw.. affect the carolinas friday or into the weekend.
nothing much else. danielle hasn't redeveloped. weak wave ahead of 96L noted in the discussion as having a piece of trough to the north. lower end may flare up as it nears the islands later on, upper end as it nears the mid oceanic trough. expect little though. models still developing the wave following 96L, but it's still a day or two from exiting.
HF 1854z24august
| Cycloneye |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 07:03 PM |
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Re: frances forthcoming/southeast coast
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DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1800 UTC 10.5N 32.4W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean
Well finnally SSD dvorak has T numbers for 96L.Still track is not a stone that it will follow the weakness because it is not a strong system as more weak more west scenario comes into effect.So let's see what happens in the comming days and see if the trough can grab the system northward and away from the lesser antilles.
| Tropics Guy |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD
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96L continues to become better organized and continues westbound for now, would be surprised not to see it upgraded to a TD at 5pm or the latest at 11pm tonight.
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 24 2004 08:26 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD
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This season has thus far seemed to be very "troffy"; I doubt it will make it to the islands. As the season progresses the trofs will only become more common in the central and western Atlantic.
| LI Phil |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 08:52 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00
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Doesn't look like we'll have TD6 at 5:00...I'd also be surprised if we have one by 11:00 either. I do see this developing into a hurricane, but very slowly. By Thursday we may see a marked intensification, but for now, status quo. Taking it's sweet time and waiting for the perfect moment to explode. Be very interested to see how this one plays out.
Waves are JUST STACKED up off Africa...this could be a very active end to the month/beginning of September. Just what we don't need. I don't see the future Frances spinning the fishes...not even giving it 50/50.
>>> This season has thus far seemed to be very "troffy"; I doubt it will make it to the islands. As the season progresses the trofs will only become more common in the central and western Atlantic
Fled, is this based on sound meterological reasoning or just a gut feel...either way it's OK, was just wondering on what you are basing that statement. The TUTT will definitely be making a impact -- assisting with development but also possible recurvature. How deep and how strong remains to be seen. I don't see much affecting 96L because it's still really too weak to be affected by such things...and it's almost to 40W. Not a good sign.
Still sick, but back to work
tomorrow. Keep your eye on the sparrow...
| Steve |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00
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For anyone with Accupro, don't miss Joe B's Meteorological Map Discussion. He took off his initial landfall intensity forecast and replaced it with the update. But what's really cool about the update is the lengthy discussion on the frictional effects of storms moving North, East or South of certain points of land. Very interesting video.
Steve
| Kevin |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 09:24 PM |
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Back
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Hey everyone-back posting here for the first time since pre-Charley in Florida. We were okay in our location...but a couple of trees were blown down in our back yard (away from house, fortunetly). Additionally, we were without power until the Monday after the storm hit. Boy did it get hot in the house...back to tropics!
96L is pretty interesting at this time. It isn't developing as quickly as some thought it was this morning, although I'd say it is safe to bet on TD 6 coming into official existence by 11:00 PM this evening or 5:00 AM tomorrow morning. Looks like the low may be experiencing a dirunal decrease in convection, although the very last IR image showed new convection forming near the center. The shear environment ahead is looking quite favorable, which should allow for a steady strengthening after the system really gathers itself. This leads me to my next point...
The center of this system is low at this point, latitude-wise. The lastest sat images don't really show much in the way of a northerly component in the track yet. The latest GFS run shows the system curving towards the nw and n from 40-43 W. I pretty much agree that this will begin to track with a more northerly component by then, but how much of a northerly component will depend on how strong the system is as well as how much the Central Atlantic ridging breaks down. Also...the system may not get pulled northward rapidly, but it may do so under 10 mph. If this does indeed occur, I'll have serious doubts as to whether any possible troughing would be around long enough for the storm to be completely picked up.
Like some others on this board, I think that there exists a decent chance that this system turns more westward in the long-range. Don't be surprised if NHC forecasts fish at first...followed by more westerly tracks.
Hey, though, 96L could just as well fall apart!
| Kevin |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00
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BTW Lt, although the TUTT can certainly weaken systems, it is generally too shallow (in 200 mb layer) to turn storms out to sea. Anyone that has witnessed the TUTT shear a storm apart (ala Debby) knows that its shearing effects do more than enough to damage developing storms.
| Clark |
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| Tue Aug 24 2004 11:31 PM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-not at 5:00
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Saw a comment about the "troughy" nature to this season in the thread somewhere. The predominant pattern at 500mb (mid-levels) across the U.S. this summer has been of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east. This has led, in general, to more "troughiness" along the coast, as short wave troughs (and associated surface systems) ride around the base of the upper longwave trough across the Southeast.
This would favor a ridge in the central/western Atlantic, which would steer anything that made it to, say, the Leewards towards the west. Storms would either recurve further out to sea, like Danielle, or make it near to the coast and recurve then (Charley, Bonnie). Note that this is a big simplifcation of the overall pattern, but serves well to explain a couple of things here.
Now, however, we are seeing the opposite pattern take shape, with a near-zonal to ridge in the east/trough in the west pattern. This would favor a trough in the western/central Atlantic and a ridge out by the Cape Verdes, leading to an increased likelihood for fish spinners, at least in the short-term (again, a simplication of things, but a fair one at least). Anything near the coast, however, would tend to keep a western track -- save for any possible development off of the coast in the immediate short-term (i.e. the lows off of the Ga & NC/SC coasts) while the pattern changes.
The overall pattern tends to change every 10-14 days or so, meaning I think we'll see an increased likelihood for some long-track storms a bit further down the road, closer to the peak of the season. Not ruling one out now, but feel it's less likely.
Just a few thoughts.
| Tropics Guy |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 12:57 AM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?
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T #'s are up to 1.5 now on 96L, also the number 1 floater is now pointed over the storm., IMO already looks like a TD, we'll see if the NHC upgrades it tonite or waits til the morning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
TG
| LI Phil |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 01:12 AM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?
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TG,
Sure looks good on the WV imagery. I was thinking if it weren't classified at 5:00 it wouldn't be at 11:00. Now I'm not so sure. There's probably no need to rush classification, but no good reason not too either...since I'm banking an entire blackbird pie on it becoming a hurricane and one to watch. Frank P. hooked me up with some really good crow roasting recipes a while ago, but I'm always hungry for more.
| Jamiewx |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 01:45 AM |
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we have T.D. 6
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We have T.D. 6, first advisory probably at 11pm, NRL has changed the invest to 06L noname.
| LI Phil |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 01:51 AM |
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Re: we have T.D. 6
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Crow for dinner again, and now leftovers. Can Frances be far behind? For those who haven't participated, HF has put up a "challenge" in the storm forum for location & classification of TD6...you may want to put up some guesses for the next two coordinate/speed timeframes. Surely HF will accept late guesses.
(No, I think that its too late for the challenge - there is only one timeframe remaining and the idea was to see how good you might be at making a 3-day forecast, not a one-day forecast.)
ED
(i'll make another challenge in a day or two. if the progs are near the mark right now, it should be over the open atlantic through the forecast period.. not like there won't be time).
HF
| Tropics Guy |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: 96L very close to being a TD-at 11:00?
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Hey Phil, don't think you'll have to eat that backbird pie, think it will be a cane in 2-3 days. New model runs now trending more westward, but still should pass north of the islands, could be some interesting days ahead.
TG
| Jamiewx |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:11 AM |
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TD 6
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Crow's getting to be a frequent dish up at Phil's place, still i don't think you'll be eating much more of it, conditions appear favorable as Kevin has said for some strengthening to occur. Not sure about the eventually track, latest model guidance differs past 45W, but most agree on west or perhaps west northwestward motion to 45W, the degree of northerly component varies significantly there after.
here is the 11pm Advisory forecast Track
NHC taking it north of the islands, this being in agreement with most of the models with the exception of a few.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:27 AM |
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TD Advisory #1
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...Sixth tropical depression of the season forms...
Satellite images this evening indicate that a tropical depression
has formed from the strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression
Six was located near latitude 11.2 north...longitude 36.0 west or
about 870 miles...1400 km...west-southwest of the Cape Verde
Islands.
The depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28
km/hr...and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected
over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression could
become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb...29.80 inches.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...11.2 N... 36.0 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1009 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 am EDT.
Forecaster Pasch
$$
| recmod |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: TD 6 Discussion #1
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Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 24, 2004
Satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern associated with the
strong tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic has become better
organized over the past several hours...with an increase of deep
convection near the low-level circulation center. Therefore the
system is being numbered at this time. There is pronounced
upper-level outflow to the North...East...and south of the
center...but outflow is limited to the east. Analyses from the
University of Wisconsin CIMSS indicate weak vertical shear along
the projected path of the cyclone to about 50w longitude. Farther
west and north...the shear may increase as suggested by the latest
200 mb forecast from the GFS model. Therefore strengthening may be
inhibited late in the forecast period...although this is highly
uncertain.
Initial motion is slightly north of west at around 15 kt. Dynamical
model predictions indicate a weakening of the mid-tropospheric
ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next several
days...due to the incursion of a trough into the central Atlantic.
This trough is at rather high latitudes however...so it is not
likely to play a direct role in steering the tropical cyclone.
Notwithstanding...the track guidance generally shows a slowing of
the forward speed and a turn toward the northwest later in the
forecast period. The NHC track forecast follows this scenario...but
is a little to the south and faster than most of the models in view
of the current motion which seems to be accelerating to the west
as we speak.
Forecaster Pasch
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 25/0300z 11.2n 36.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 25/1200z 11.8n 38.2w 35 kt
24hr VT 26/0000z 12.4n 40.7w 40 kt
36hr VT 26/1200z 13.0n 43.0w 45 kt
48hr VT 27/0000z 13.8n 45.1w 50 kt
72hr VT 28/0000z 16.0n 48.5w 60 kt
96hr VT 29/0000z 18.0n 51.0w 70 kt
120hr VT 30/0000z 20.0n 53.0w 70 kt
$$
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danielw
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: TD 6 *DELETED*
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Post deleted by danielw
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: we have T.D. 6
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<<Fled, is this based on sound meterological reasoning or just a gut feel...either way it's OK, was just wondering on what you are basing that statement.>>
I won't lie, it's based on a gut feeling according to the way the few storms we've already had have acted. Of course, as another poster has mentioned, there is a constant oscillation between high and low amplitude pattern.
However, even for the past several seasons, the general pattern has been for trofs off the East Coast to steer storms out to sea, a factor which Gray himself has mentioned in his reports as being the reason far fewer major hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast--in particular, the East Coast--since 1995 than would be dictated by the long-term averages.
| HanKFranK |
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| Wed Aug 25 2004 03:02 AM |
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Re: TD 6
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it'll be a trip if this forecast track with the first advisory of td six plays out. fifteen degrees west over five days, in the deep tropics.. that's some kind of slow. if i had to make a best guess right now i'd shift the nhc forecast track slightly left and give the storm a good deal more westward progression by the end of the period.. to around 500 miles east/ene of the virgin islands. there's been a good deal of variation in the model strength of the ridging progged near the east coast past the forecast period.. if the storm gets underneath it the ultimate progression is still uncertain (every other run erodes the ridge enough to keep the coast clear, but a number show enough to take it all the way west by labor day weekend).
still fairly convinced on close in activity later this week off the southeast coast. thinking very close in, but some model runs indicating that their may be a consolidation further east, out near 70-75w. just a broad unfocused area of disturbed weather at this point.
that's about all i can say. aside from: new thread on the way.
HF 0302z25august