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First of all this storm is moving around 15 to 18 mph to the west. It has been on a track to the west or slightly north of west for the last 15 degrees. Since 25 west. It has moved very little north since then. The Gfs has shifted left every run since the 00z in now shows it skiming the northern leewards. What else is wrong with the gfs is it is moving at around 18 mph this thing is not going to slow down as much as the Gfs says. I say by tomarrow afternoon it will be around 45 maybe 46 west. This could just as easly fellow the southern hurricane models with this.

So this is my thinking it should not get pass 12 north intill 11pm tonight. Then should not pass 15 north intill nearing 60 west. I expect a cat1 hurricane with in the next 48 to 60 hours.

NOTE TO ANON. You can choose to go back and add your name to this post or it will be deleted by 6:00 today.

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Wow why bash me into the ground!

>>> Not bashing you. Every anon will be treated equally. Thank you very much for IDing yourself. Good post by the way.

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It has been mentioned before, but it bears repeating. Anonymous posts will no longer be accepted. You do not have to register, simply ID yourself in some way. Thank you.

More importantly, JB has again posted today and what he has to say about Frances is not good. He's now calling for a CAT III (perhaps) midway between Hispaniola and Bermuda by next Tuesday or Wednesday.

I smell Hattaras.

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what phil said earlier about anons.. yeah, just add a name if you don't want to register. the moderator/admin guys can tell who you are, but nobody else here can. it's an accountability thing... when the board gets active the people who screw it up are usually unregistered anons, trying to piss everybody off. if people ID themselves it's unlikely john and mike in admin will pull the unregistered posting option in those times. sucks to cut people off, but the benefit is worth it. in the meanwhile it's up to the moderators to keep things from getting messy. playing nanny really sucks, so just add a name to your post and there's no problem at all.
gotta respond to caneman.. it's way the hell out there, but that's a risky take, even for a gut feeling. that section of coastline dodges the bullet more than any other.
have more to say later.
HF 2150z25august

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This is one of my favorites:
Mid-Atlantic Wx.com
Larry

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The northewesterly track has begain, it now seems more likely that it will impact the US.

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I know it's exciting that Frances is a hurricane now,

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I think that exciting is the wrong word for the feeling that many of us here in central florida feel as Frances organizes. There is an excitement that comes from looking at a cane that is forming, and has nothing to do with the dread that we feel at the thought of one of these beautiful monsters taking aim at the east coast. Everytime I drive in to Orlando and see the aftermath of Charley, I wonder why I love watching these storms develope. Yet here I am every night, surfing from site to site, trying to teach myself something about the mystery of the big storms. Education was my only weapon against the fear. For the most part everyone is still talking way over my head, but I get the drift and go hunting for explinations to the things that have been posted. Frances "feels" and looks like what I saw with floyd. I do not know if it is the size of the storm building, or the speed it is organizing. It is still out there a ways, and the hand of god can still push it more north, but someone is going to deal with this baby. In my very VERY novice opinion. For what its worth.
Be Safe Whatever happens!!