| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 09:48 PM |
|
Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
6 PM Eastern, Thursday
Frances became a hurricane today, and is forecast to become a Category 3 over the weekend. Most track models have decided that the effects of the upper trough in the central Atlantic will be modest, and that the storm will be moving westward under the ridge in the western Atlantic during the coming week. People are already alluding to historic storms, but remember that there are usually systems like this every year and few make the history books. That said, I would be paying very close attention to it leading up to Labor Day weekend. There is also a chance it will come close enough to the Lesser Antilles to foul the weather up this weekend.
A low pressure area is consolidating off the South Carolina coast today, and some forecast models are now developing it. This system is forecast to move very little over the next couple of days, and will pose a threat days ahead of Frances' advance if it can organize. Another wave on the same old frontal boundary that has spawned the low off the Carolina coast is looking suspicious south of Bermuda this afternoon.
The days leading up to Labor Day promise to be active ones for storm trackers. Keep an eye on the tropics as August is on the wane.
HF
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 10:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
Frances is still getting better organized, and even there is no invest, so is the system off of the Carolinas. Could we have Gaston by Monday?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 10:04 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
All of a sudden everything has become very active in the Atlantic, Hurricane Fances, the low off the southeast and another devloping low by bermuda and there are more good waves coming off africa, it all seems so overwhelming, and seems like this will be a very active sept. I only perdicted seven storms by the end of August but that might be to low.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 10:28 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
Well the models are starting to get into some agreement over a track for Frances. I still think the NHC forecast is a bit north of where it might be. I am sticking to 60W before 20N. NHC track has it crossing 20N at around 57-58W. Really, it matters little, because in that timeframe, Frances will certainly shift back nearly due west as she will not be able to make any poleward progress after 96 hours. This is going to be a sticky situation for the US. Unfourtuantely, Frances will make a US landfall.
| Cycloneye |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 10:41 PM |
|
Can I breath easy?
|
For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.The key for this island and the other ones in the northern leewards and the virgin islands will be when after it moves WNW it will bend back west.I hope it does that after it passes 20 n to then not see the most bigger effects but mother nature has it's own thinking so I will watch what happens with the track in comming days.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 10:51 PM |
|
wonder what the insurance companies are thinking
|
A few more major hurricane strikes, and the property value of the coastal areas will plummet, since the insurance companies will either go bankrupt, or issue exceedingly expensive policies. At the very least, they will realize that the effects of hurricanes are NOT going to go away.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 11:05 PM |
|
Re: Can I breath easy?
|
Quote:
For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.The key for this island and the other ones in the northern leewards and the virgin islands will be when after it moves WNW it will bend back west.I hope it does that after it passes 20 n to then not see the most bigger effects but mother nature has it's own thinking so I will watch what happens with the track in comming days.
C-eye - stay safe and keep us updated on how Frances affects you. We will all be watching.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 11:09 PM |
|
Re: Can I breath easy?
|
>>> For those who may not know where I am I live in Puerto Rico.
Luis, you funny. It lists your location right next to your post
All kidding aside, I don't think you can breathe easy until the system has actually tracked west of PR. However, based on the current modeling, you should be spared most of the bad weather.
BTW, watching TWC, and we have had four hurricanes in the Atlantic thus far...tying the record for the most August hurricanes in the basin. Food for thought? Could Gaston break the record?
People up and down the East Coast really need to think about their preps...Said it before and I'll say it again, anything the models are indicating past 120 hours should be considered speculation...and the 72 hour forecasts still have a fairly large margin for error.
Frances is going to become a major hurricane before the weekend is over...perhaps some similarity to other canes from oh, say, 1992, 1999 & 2003. Names being withheld to protect the guilty. You know which ones I'm talking about.
Frances is a classic CV storm...whether she makes the classic CV track remains to be seen. However, from the models and the discussions, it appears Frances will strengthen, possibly considerably, for at least the next 48 hours. Upper level conditions are favorable for development. She should continue to track northwest for at least the next day or two, at which point we can probably expect some due west movement...that's when things get dicey and it will become time to fish or cut bait. By 72 hours, we should know, with a fair degree of confidence, whether the area from Hattaras south to Miami or Hattaras north to Nova Scotia may be the preferred destination.
By the end of the weekend, the trof is forecasted to back off and the ridge will build in...hence the westward component. At such time, Frances' future will become more clear.
Few things are a certainty now, but I'm fairly confident this is an East Coast hit. I'm also fairly convinced it could be another major hit...god do I hope I'm wrong with that. A couple of posters, Clark being one, mentioned they just don't have a good "feel" about this one, and I totally agree. There is no meterology involved there, just knowing what these long tracking CV storms are capable of. Got a bad feeling about this, and I've had that feeling ever since 96L was first classified.
Anyway, we've got 10-13 days or so before we receive Frances' answer to "Where are you going to go?" so it's wait and see time. In the meantime, we may have Gaston brewing off of the Carolina's (though to my mind, Gaston should be a GOM storm, destination n'awlins...or as Steve informed me...new oar-leeens).
Everyone start getting more sleep than usual...Frances may promise some looonnngg nights ahead.
Be safe everyone,
LI Phil
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 26 2004 11:25 PM |
|
when the moderators....
|
when the moderators are uneasy about this..I suppose it means we are all in for a ride next week. The CDO is really firing up, and I think the strength might be more rapid than they anticipate. Doesn't matter though, cause it IS a long way off. Plenty of time to fret and worry...probably too much time.
No one has mentioned the possibility of it entering the gulf...or ripping a swath through Florida, and then hitting us...but we all know a double whammy is a distinct possiblity.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 12:01 AM |
|
|
|
what, me worry?
|
worried is a bit of a stretch on this end. i've got reason to believe the picture we're currently seeing is going to get a lot more complicated. there is threat potential.. but the pieces haven't come together yet, and we need a few more of the big ones before the worry starts here.
i'm nowhere near 100% on what's happening just off the coast in my home state. that could easily be a weak, clueless low, or get organized and spin up into something bothersome over the weekend. right now i'm favoring the latter, but not confident in any sense. if either the low southeast of charleston or the low south of bermuda develop, it will greatly confuse the picture upstream of frances.. the ridge in the western atlantic will not be a solid driving force but frayed at the edges.
frances of course has major longtracker written into it's future, but that's nothing special per se.. it is forecast to track close to the islands at a westward trajectory.. and many of those threaten the east coast when they do that.. but by no means do all. gfs is the crystal ball we gaze into for answers, and it still alternately recurves it and drives it straight across florida.. or takes it into the carolinas. until it stops changing its mind every run we won't have the foggiest, other than just a deepening storm with threat as a caption. assuming an inertial path off the forecast track, the storm will be near the east coast around september 4th.. so until about monday or tuesday we won't be close enough in for the models to start drawing a convincing picture. for this weekend, watch and wait... unless you're in the virgin islands and the storm makes a habit of staying left of the forecast track.
just to be presumptive, yes, there is a good chance gaston pops up somewhere prior to the closure of august. just to add fuel to the fire, soi staying negative almost all august has brought some significant warming to the western pacific, and the atmosphere should be transitioning to a weak el nino as autumn sets in. the breakneck pace we've set in august may be clipped off sometime in october.
HF 0004z27august
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 12:44 AM |
|
Re: what, me worry?
|
My local chapter of the AMS featured one of the preeminant experts in tropical meteorology speaking tonight, Dr. T.N. Krirshnamurti (he of the FSU Superensemble, among many other things). The five day forecast is basically the same as the NHC's official forecast...by the NHC's doing, not FSU's...and his "subjective" forecast is for landfall in the 8-9 day time frame in the Carolinas.
Take it for what it's worth.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:02 AM |
|
Re: what, me worry?
|
I don't wish a land fall on any one but maybe by that time it will have decreased to a "used to was" since it is insisting on early intensity now.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
Frances looks impressive, and an eye seems to be trying to form. I bet that the intensity will be increased to 90kts and even higher if a visble eye forms on radar by 11PM. As other people have said, this storm is giving a certain feeling that this will cause some damage but who knows where, the models are all over the place. It may hit land hopefully not.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances deepening, closer concerns
|
Good post Hank. I think its all very premature today to say what Frances might do in 4 days when there is a situation off the SC coast ..as well as the ull to the east of the SC system and to the N of Frances. If she continues moving more west north west than northwest with all that going on..then we will have a better clue. But the steering conditions have not jelled yet in my opinon. Her path is not very set in stone.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Can I breath easy?
|
We don't have ten to thirteen days.. I don't know where you get that number and we only have those days if the storm slows down as it is forecasted to do. Until it does... we don't have that much time. And...if the ridge did build in as some models say.. it could speed up and we'd end up with less time.
timing is as always everything
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Can I breath easy?
|
OK, Roberta, I'll speed up the schedule...10 days, from whence I originally posted, would be next Saturday...lets compromise and make it 8 days. That's next Friday early morning, or late Thursday. I don't think Frances landfalls until Labor Day. That's when we can, with confidence approaching 75%, predict a landfall. If you want my best guess...right now...gotta go with Hattaras...poor piece of land sticks out like a sore thumb into the Atl. But then, I could say in January we'll get a Hattaras hit, and I'd have been correct three times already...
Lets say we "only have" five days...which we don't, I couldn't tell you whether this is a Miami or Portland (ME) hit. All I'm saying is that the whole eastern seaboard needs to watch this, but at 10 days out (my call), we'll know within 200 miles north or south, the expected landfall. If she's faster, then she's faster... I just know my CV storms, and that's my time frame.
If it's a Hattaras hit, I don't want any credit for the call, just as I don't want any grief if it tracks into the GOM...ATTM.
All I'm saying, again, is that anyone with interests on the East Coast should carefully monitor Frances' progress.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:43 AM |
|
Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
I posted on Tuesday morning that based on Frances current position, speed, strength, model runs and climatology, I gave the system about a 50/50 chance for either fishing or affecting the CONUS.... for the past two days everything has consistently shifted west.... this is still NOT etched in stone by no means, but I'm starting to up that probability that someone will experience a close encounter of the most unwelcome kind for the CONUS, if not a direct hit....
critical to me will be the strength of the Bermuda high at the time interval when Frances enters the Bahamas.... a strong ridge would not bode well at all for Florida, especially from the SE coast to central area, and a strong ridge could also eventually send this thing into the GOM.. similar to a Andrew track....a weaker ridge, then the track goes more north, GA, SC, NC... pick em.... strength of the ridge will be a such key factor.... ridge falls apart..... then we might all be OK... .not betting on this one at the moment..
also another wild card factor which could play a hugh role in all of this....will there be any strong fronts work down off the SE coast.... a timing issue.... does Frances slow down at any time... which could allow time for a front drop down, although not that likely this time of the year.... something to consider ..... and could draw Frances more to the north.....
a lot of unknowns.... still... but needless to say it will be watch by a plethora of people, and after Charley, I would expect areas under hurricane warnings, if they come to fruition for the US, will not get the apathetic treatment that Charles received... if this is a major hurricane threatening to strike the CONUS you will see the largest evacuation ever undertaken... so if your in the zone and the evacuation order is given... a word to the wise... don't wait to long to go....this should be a most interesting week for storm tracking... this has been a most interesting hurricane season to boot...
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:17 AM |
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
here in fla. mets are saying ridge will build farther west into fla. this would not allow frances to go north. turks and cacois in bahamas will be in danger from this major hurricane. then central and western bahamas. and then fla.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:34 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Still way too far away to say for sure...by the weekend hopefully we will have a better handle on this. I took the hurricane panels down last week wondering if I really should. I will be mad if I have to put them up again! I have had panels in the last two houses I have lived here on the East-Central FL coast in the last 10 years and have only had to put them up three times. If I have to do it twice in one season...geez! My last place wasn't too bad but now I have over 20 windows to cover....sigh. At least Charley was a practice run for us...just some gusts in the 50 mph range here.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:39 AM |
|
|
|
who is roberta? & i think ridge is building in as we speak
|
Okay...I see the lows. I have watched them for a while tonight between the football game and IMs.
I think the timing on the ridge building in is off.. I currently see evidence that the ridge is beginning to build in. If that is happening (spend more time on water vapor and ir4 and less time on model runs) ...then she won't have much of a nw component and if that is the case...
the models you are watching will move more to the left soon
my thoughts... if you watch a wide loop you can see where the system moving east thru tennessee towards the atlantic where another arm is reaching west. The lows have lost color while this has happened and if that area moves east faster it will clear out and stop whatever is happening off the coast of the Carolinas. IF... lots of ifs here.
We are going to be doing a lot of watching next few days.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:19 AM |
|
Re:A More W Component?
|
I think you are right in one aspect Bobbi that she seems to be moving more W.I cannot see what is suppose to tug her northward.Frances right now seems to of slowed down considerbly in the last few frames.This by my own rules says a change in direction is about to happen usually does.Since I can't see event that wll cause this makes it tough to call.I have to say Luis keep your eyes open and be safe.I'll have to say that Frances I believe is not going as far N as projected.I hope that I am wrong on this.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:29 AM |
|
|
Re:A More W Component?
|
>>new oar-leeens
That's New Or-Lee-uns /get it straight.
Frances is a curiosity. I haven't been paying nearly the attention to her that I should, but my nights have been spent vegging on the couch watching the Olympics. I did catch Stacey Stewart's 5pm TWD today, and it shows why he's the best of them all. He challenges himself and the reader and discusses more possibilities than any of the other forecasters. He should probably be the HMIC.
Someone posted a thread on S2K today asking for some morning line predictions. Usually this would be too far out. But I was bored at work and took a look at some of the historical tracks. I threw my bet behind the SC/NC border and the Outer Banks (think it will come up SW of them). But that's a complete roll of the dice. It could just as easily hit Florida or Nova Scotia. Things change and morph (fluid as bobbi always says), and you really never know what's going to happen (as anything can and usually does). I took a chance a couple of weeks ago looking at the pattern we were going into (was a Norway to Baja ridge) and wondered if the pattern repeated whether or not we'd see a couple of long tracked storms (= landfalling storms). In my mind, a ridge building to the north means westward motion. And whether that means a Hugo, an Andrew or a broken down ridge with a storm running the coast 100 miles offshore, we're just going to have to wait and see.
Bastardi's homebrew appears to have excellent support. If it fires, score him the coup (originally noted last Friday as an area to watch regardless of whether there was anything tropical there or not).
I got a feeling we're in for a kick ass next 8 weeks. America hasn't been getting hit by majors the last 10-12 years commensurate (sp?) with the number of majors that have developed. Don't say you heard it here first, but the idea has crossed my mind that we could easily see an unprecedented 2-3 more majors make landfall this year. If you count Alex (though he was only a 2 @ landfall/brush-by) and Charley, that spells a banner year for tracking and a banner year for destruction. I haven't done any research tonight except look at the Goes 12 IR. But I've been thinking. Yeah, I've been thinking.
Steve
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:01 AM |
|
Re:A More W Component?
|
A few interesting notes...
1) Charley was the first cat. 4+ hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. since Hurricane Andrew in 1992.
2) Only 17 cat. 4+ hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. since 1900.
3) The last four cat. 4+ storms to make landfall in the U.S.? Camille (1969), Hugo (1989), Andrew (1992), Charley (2004)
4) Only twice has the U.S. mainland *possibly* been impacted with two landfalling cat. 4+ storms since 1900 - 1906 and 1915. In 1906, it's debateable regarding hurricane #8 and the Fl. Keys; in 1915, it's debateable about the intensity at landfall of hurricane #2.
I post there partially because my major professor asked me if two cat. 4+ storms had ever made landfall in the U.S. in a year and partially because it's a scenario we could see play out over the remainder of this season, starting with Frances. It's a rarity folks, but it can happen.
Frances' eye looks to be becoming better defined on IR satellite imagery, although we're currently in satellite "twilight" for a couple of hours. We'll probably have a cat. 2 storm on our hands sometime tomorrow....well, today now. Outflow is excellent N to SW, becoming a little less defined on the S side. It's there on the east side, but is not nearly as well-defined as on the west side. It is moving into a region of very low shear - even less than what it was encountering, although it wasn't high to begin with - and despite mid-level dry air, precipitable water values are still high across the ocean, so further strengthening is likely.
It is interesting to note that a couple of models take the storm into the cat. 3-4 range within 5 days, most within 3 with a leveling in intensity beyond then. This includes some runs of the GFDL and the FSU Superensemble. The trends westward have stopped to some degree, and I think the current forecast track looks about right. If it slows as much as is forecast late in the period, Frances could be out there 10 or so more days. As is, somewhere around 8-10 sounds good.
The ultimate question will be how far to the west that the subtropical ridge builds over time, and how fast the storm moves in response to it. A faster storm will likely move further to the west with a stronger ridge. If the ridge builds to between Bermuda and the Outer Banks, a NC landfall or brush off the coast looks like a good bet. If it builds to the islands, then a NC/SC track looks like a better bet. If it builds inland a bit, then all bets are off.
The first scenario has played out the most times through history under these circumstances and tend to produce category 2 storms affecting the Wilmington to Cape Hatteras area; the last scenario has played out the least number of times but tends to result in strong storms affecting Florida, then getting into the Gulf and landfalling again between Lake Charles and Destin.
By all means though, it's one we're definitely going to have to follow.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:03 AM |
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
You stated that this storm would not see the same apathy that Charley endured and that we would see the largest evacuation ever.
I'm in Bradenton, and I was under a mandatory evacuation. Unfortunately I evacuated to Arcadia which took a direct hit by Charley.
There was very little apathy here in SW FL and we already DID the largest evacuation ever. Both Pinellas and Manatee were under A,B,C evacs and Collier up to Cedar Key were under at least an A,B evac.
More than 1 million people evacuated from Pinellas and Hillsborough alone.
So please don't accuse us of apathy. I saw very very little of it. They warned and we responded.
However, next time I'm not going anywhere, unless I have time to get to Nebraska. One ride dead in the eye of category 4 is enough for me.
Best Regards,
Bev Mott
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:07 AM |
|
Frances in Florida?
|
Just thought i note that on Sept. 6th.... There could be TWO Hurricanes in South Florida.... Frances and Miami.... (FSU@MI)
Why what a story.... looks like they could cancel the Labor Day game if a CAT 2 or 3 is off the Coast....
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
Go Noles
>>I post there partially because my major professor asked me if two cat. 4+ storms had ever made landfall in the U.S. in a year and partially because it's a scenario we could see play out over the remainder of this season, starting with Frances. It's a rarity folks, but it can happen.
Interesting points Clark. I see you're thinking along the same lines as I am. I told HF in a PM that 5 majors impacting the coast is a big stretch, but the idea of 5 landfalling canes in 2004 isn't by a long shot. The Gulf season (though Charley snuck in) hasn't even started. Sometimes we see June action and then go dry until late August through late October. We've got a long way to go.
One thing though - wasn't Bret a 4 at landfall near King's Ranch?
Steve
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
One more thing for the backburner. I didn't check the forum to see if anyone had posted it, but here's the August update for 5 and 8 month lead times on El Nino. 6 of 11 models have trended warm for winter (other 5 are neutral), but are unanimously neutral in 8 (April 2005). Could 2005 be shaping up to be another mixed-signal year (2002, 2003, 2004...)?
August ENSO Model Output
Steve
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:43 AM |
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
Steve - I definitely agree. Five canes isn't a longshot by any means. We've already had a couple. Three or four are more likely of course, but you never know. Seems like every year brings something new and historic these days -- whether it's wrong-way Lenny & Floyd in 1999; or the extra-long season, Fabian/Isabel, and April Ana in 2003; or Alex & Charley in 2004. That doesn't even include the S. Atlantic storm...
The best track info I have for Bret says it weakened to a cat 3 just before landfall.
Re: FSU GRAD -- We've got 10 and a half days at least before the FSU-UM football game would be affected - and to tell the truth, if the storm hits South Florida, I think it'll be closer to 8 days away instead of 10. It'll take longer if it recurves, less time if it heads straight towards Florida. There are more important things to worry about regarding that game for FSU!
BTW, a note to the mods/site admins: the advisory info for Frances on the side of the page is coming up with an east longitude, at least on my end. Probably a problem in the NHC's data somewhere that is causing something to hiccup or something and not really important, but just something I noticed.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:29 AM |
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
Along with some other posters, I think it's too early to talk about landfall anywhere outside of the NE Antilles (which is already a long shot). That said, Frances is gearing up to be another photogenic, compact major hurricane, like an old favorite of mine (Edouard, 1996).
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:09 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
The eye of the hurricane is now much less distinct than it was an hour or two ago.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:29 AM |
|
Re: Frances in Florida?
|
Nrl says 85 knots/975 millibars!!!!!
Thats 100 mph cat2 hurricane!
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:16 AM |
|
|
Re:5AM Discussion
|
Appears that TPC and James may be collaborating on the Eye. Thye have increased the intensity to 80 kts or 92 mph. Making Frances very near to CAT 2 strength.
The most interesting part of the discussion were the long term forecast positions. The 31/0600Z has the storm retrograding S to 21.0 and 61.5, Loss of 0.5 degrees from the 31/0000Z position. The 01/0600Z position is moved S to 21.5 and 65.0. Reflecting a loss of 0.5 degrees from the previous forecast position These are long term forecasts and are subject to change, in days to come.
Looking at the lat/ longs for 30/06z to 01/06z- the track is no further north than 21.5N. The 01/0600z position, 21.5N / 65.0W, from the 5AM discussion, would be about 250 miles N of St Croix, and 360 mile E of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Not a lot of margin here!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:54 AM |
|
|
Very Quick...very EARLY post
|
Not much has changed since late yesterday...Frances almost a CAT II and wouldn't be surprised if she's classified as such at 11:00am. JB posted early today and he feels it's Hattaras and north. Great. Of course, way to early to tell, but that's not good news regardless.
Steve, one of these days I'll get the New Or Le Unnns pronounciation correct.
Das all fo' now. Got to get a quick 40 if possible. Catchya before the 11 update.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:11 AM |
|
|
Re:5AM Discussion
|
Keeping my fingers crossed, that he stays away from FL. Daniel, I am not ignoring you your mailbox is full and won't let me PM you.
MaryAnn
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re:5AM Discussion
|
Same here.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Off Current Topic
|
Sorry to be a bit off topic here. The Charleston, SC radar is showing a circulation on their long range radar. To early to tell on radar, but the IR loop showed it drifting ESE. Link here.
http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kclx.shtml
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:33 AM |
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
>>>>>You stated that this storm would not see the same apathy that Charley endured and that we would see the largest evacuation ever.
There was very little apathy here in SW FL and we already DID the largest evacuation ever<<<<<<<<
While there might not have been apathy during the approach of Charley, I must concur with the original poster's logic. Here in inland Central Florida, very few people did anything to prepare for the storm. Sure, there was the typical run on bottled water and canned goods at the grocery store...but very little actual preparation. Heck, most people left their trash cans (the storm hit on trash pick-up day) sitting at the curb through the hurricane!!!
But this time, things are different. There is already a low-level buzz starting over Frances. People who did nothing to prepare for Charley are now saying they will board up and definitely stock up on hurricane essentials. So, while we may not see any larger evacuations, I am SURE there will be massive crowds / lines at the area grocery & hardware stores. And I think there will be another run on the local gas supply. Everyone will make sure their gas tanks are completely "topped-off". The memories of not being able to get gas anywhere for days after the storm are just too fresh.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:22 AM |
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Frances looks much stronger at this hour. With red wraping around its eyewall with a clearly defined eye. I would say 5.5/5.5 for the next t number. With a strong cat3 or weak cat4 by 11am Advisory!
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Just an observation here. The 06Z A98E model has Frances taking a dive? south.
29/06z 17.2N/ 58.0W
30/06z 16.3N/ 63.8W
31/06z 14.8N/ 69.3W
01/06z 12.8N/ 74.0W
*These are just model parameters and are not necessarily forecast tracks.*
Is something going on with the ridge that we haven't seen yet? 12.8/ 74.0 is south of the westernmost tip of Haiti.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 12:26 PM |
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Definitely taking a NW movement this morning. In most cases that would be good but in this case it could be bad.A98E? Has that model ever been right or even close. I remember in the past. That was the outlier of all models but it doesn't mean one out of all, can't be right.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 12:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A98E
|
I have been following all the text model output since this storm was recognized. A98E and LBAR were nearly flawless in either the correct lat or long or both. Usually within 0.3 degrees on the latitude! This will make A98E an outlier, for the next several hours. Unless it continues the trend.
Outlier continues, but the other direction now!
29/1200z 18.7N/ 56.2W
30/1200z 21.2N/ 61.2W
31/1200z 23.6N/ 66.3W
01/1200z 27.1N/ 71.0W
**These are model parameters only. Not necessarily forecast tracks**
27.1 and 71.0 would put the storm around 670 miles East of Jupiter Inlet.
**Again, this model. A98E, is the Only model showing this movement. The other models are going No further North than 20.1N and no further West than 71.3W**
I am wondering if the wrong data got entered. Computers don't make mistakes, people do!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 12:49 PM |
|
Re: A98E
|
A98E has been doing the same thing for awhile with Frances...and really hasn't been good for a number of years. It's one of the less-reliable models that the NHC runs, just for additional guidance.
First visible images show Frances to be a very healthy storm with a well-defined - if small - eye. No way it's a strong 3/weak 4 at 11am, however. Middle 2 - probably in the neighborhood of 100mph - is more like it.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Appears that Frances may be moving in a slightly new direction.
*These are SSD positions and aren't necessarily the same as NHC positions.*
The last 6 hrs have a 0.4N/ 0.8W track.
Prior track was 0.6N/ 0.9W and 0.4N and 1.6W prior to that.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1145 UTC 14.7N 48.5W T4.5/4.5 FRANCES
27/0615 UTC 14.3N 47.7W T4.5/4.5 FRANCES
26/2345 UTC 13.7N 46.8W T4.0/4.0 FRANCES
26/1615 UTC 13.3N 45.2W T4.0/4.0 FRANCES
26/1145 UTC 12.8N 44.1W T3.5/3.5 FRANCES
26/0615 UTC 12.4N 42.8W T3.0/3.0 FRANCES
25/2345 UTC 11.8N 41.1W T2.5/2.5 FRANCES
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:36 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
But that appears to be W-NW as they are projecting. I do not see any 'real' variation- but you do-please elaborate.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 01:52 PM |
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Looks like the disturbance off the SE coast is getting stronger:
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
Anybody got any fresh takes on this? Normal daytime heating?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
I see that area to the east of GA/SC AND the area near Bermuda both flaring up.
These should be followed-up as well. I'd like to know impact these systems' potential development can have on Frances and the developing ridge.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances will cause great worry and stress for CONUS
|
Those area's are flaring up because of day-time heating. They've been doing this for days now, just like thunderstorms (strenghten in the afternoon and weaken at night). These two area's need a boost, in-order to become self-sustained like hurricanes otherwise they will just drift as air-mass thunderstorms.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:37 PM |
|
|
Cat II Frances
|
Frances will be upgraded to a CAT II at 11:00, winds 105 mph moving WNW @ 10mph
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:45 PM |
|
|
|
Gaston?
|
I really hated him in Beauty and the Beast (the cartoon version). Bastardi has now signnaled the alarm for development despite the absence of low level turning. He thinks that it will move ashore in the coastal Carolinas Sunday Night or Monday. He's not giving any parameters as the absence of feedback (to this point) does not allow him to predict potential classification. Me? I'd go on record thinking this has a chance to become a STRONG tropical storm (say 55-70mph) but more likely will be a 40-55 with a nice signature before it runs out of time.
Steve
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 02:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
That sounds reasonable, Steve. The system south of Bermuda may also give us something to watch.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:02 PM |
|
|
|
Gaston and Hermine?
|
NRL is now listing 2 new invests.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
Radar Loop
Got a nice spin to it, doesn't it?
Satellite Loop
Hard to tell, since floater 2 is still inexplicably aimed at Cuba, but there might be a LLC developing with the Carolina system. Good view of Frances, though.
Edit: Go to NRL, 97L and animate the image...that's where floater 2 should be.
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:16 PM |
Re: Gaston?
|
Looks like a long week ahead for coastal SC residents- as well as many others. Have been lurking here, and learning from all of you, for several years. Frances has chased me out of lurker status.
Assuming we get past the "home grown" system, I have an ignorant Frances question. Frances, like Charley, seems to have a relatively narrow hurricane force wind field. Is that capable of significantly expanding (to a Hugo/floyd type of storm), or is a compact storm generally always a compact storm?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
Welcome Bill. Usually a storm will show tendencies of increasing in scope if it is going to enlarge. Frances (to me anyway) is a small to medium sized storm. But it remains to be seen whether or not its windfield will expand as it continues over increasingly warmer SST's.
Btw, Stacey Stewart put out a fabulous discussion at 11:00 today. He also did yesterday's 5:00. I wish they'd let him write all of them.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
Quote:
Looks like a long week ahead for coastal SC residents- as well as many others. Have been lurking here, and learning from all of you, for several years. Frances has chased me out of lurker status.
Assuming we get past the "home grown" system, I have an ignorant Frances question. Frances, like Charley, seems to have a relatively narrow hurricane force wind field. Is that capable of significantly expanding (to a Hugo/floyd type of storm), or is a compact storm generally always a compact storm?
The simple answer is probably "yes" but I would refer you to TPC FAQ which may have a more definitive answer for you. Even if not, you can glean a tremendous amount of info on hurricanes just by reading the FAQ's.
BTW, Welcome Aboard, SC Bill. I like that...kinda like LI Phil.
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:45 PM |
|
|
HOMEGROWN TROUBLE
|
From TWO 1130 (another system is also developing out by Bermuda...moving south):
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
CENTERED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON...IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.
WESTWARD!
sc
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
Generally compact storms are in the strongest part of it's life cycle. As it grows older it becomes bigger, usually because it's weakening, as the pressure gradient becomes larger the wind speed becomes usually weaker. It's hard to say with this storm because we don't know how strong it can get, these Cape Verde (CV) systems sometimes become very strong (ex. Isabel) and then weaken when they come near land.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 03:58 PM |
Re: HOMEGROWN TROUBLE
|
Would the systems off the east coast have an impact on the future track of Frances ?
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Gaston?
|
The low pressure area off bremuda looks like something, it just started yesterday and I have a feeling about this one becoming Gaston. It has some spin on it and could impact the U.S , as probably a tropical storm.
Also the one off South Carolina is very organized, which one will devlop first? It's only 12:00
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:05 PM |
|
|
Cat III Frances?
|
Frances has slowed down. That could be a good thing for Florida as the impact from the ridge could direct it more towards the west, right? That would put PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba under the gun, right?
But it can also do a 'Flloyd' as well assuming it would naturally want to veer northward at some point.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Cat III Frances?
|
rmbjoe,
Frances will probably be upgraded to a CAT III at the 5:00; it might already be one now. Need to wait for the Dvoraks but they're probably 5.5/5.5 as we speak...CAT III status.
>>> Frances has slowed down. That could be a good thing for Florida as the impact from the ridge could direct it more towa rds the West, right? That would put PR, Hispaniola, and Cuba under the gun, right?
I think, at least for the time being, you have to stick with the NHC forecast...they have really been pretty spot on this year and I see no reason not to agree with the official track. Therefore, I don't see your scenario playing out for the moment. It's WAY to early to start guessing where Frances will go beyond five days (even then there are hundreds of miles of forecast error)...Stick with the NHC five day forecast for now, but realistically, the 72 hour 'window' is really the best bet.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:22 PM |
|
|
Northward Wobble!
|
Check out the northward wobble. Interesting...lets see if it's just a wobble or a trend...hmmmm
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Northward Wobble!
|
Looks like the 'staircase' approach. That's not a good thing for the long haul.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:33 PM |
|
Re: Northward Wobble!
|
Seemed to jog west again in the last frame, so likely just a wobble. I never noticed that you can play backwards the satellite loop that Phil posted. Pretty fun to do, actually, and in some cases might be useful.
| StormLover |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:42 PM |
|
Re: Cat III Frances?
|
Frances seems like a very well organized, compact storm, like Charley. If it slows down some, it could gain more in intensity over the warm waters (providing there is little shear) and maybe strengthen quickly prior to landfall to maybe Cat 4 strength. After all, forecasters never thought Charley was going to be as powerful as it turned out!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:46 PM |
|
|
|
South Carolina...
|
I've got a circulation center in its infancy around 31.5N, 78W. If you go to Goes 12 Vis, animate and then zoom to that point, you will see what appears to be some stronger banding type convection that's wrapping in toward the center. Looks like this could be either the last dry run or the beginning of the feedback.
Steve
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 04:51 PM |
|
|
JB Midday Missive
|
JB just posted his midday update...it's as long as his normal morning posts! Gist of it is that NC & SC residents had better be gearing up for a tropical storm and possibly a weak hurricane. Frances is also a Carolina threat. The Bermuda system could be a Carolina threat. So, folks in NC & SC...you will be getting wet at the minimum and well...doomsday scenario ain't pretty.
JB also admonished Gulf Coasters that the potential for tropical mischief is as great now as it's ever been, so not to let down your guard.
Anyone heard anything about recon? For either invest or Frances?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:03 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
I've seen nothing about recon as of yet but I'm sure it's soon to come.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:04 PM |
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Interesting to see if he is right.. Its easy to say NC/SC based upon historical info. If I were a betting man I would say the same thing myself. Anything would be better than another FL hit.. I am still without a roof , have lots of damage, and I have no Cable/High Speed Internet. Power was returned a couple days ago.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Why don't just take a boat off the coast of Charleston and take surface observations, so they won't have to estimate the windspeed and pressure? It's pretty rough sea's but I'm sure a coast guard boat could withstand it, if planes can fly into a CAT 4 hurricane.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:11 PM |
|
Re: Northward Wobble!
|
Thought I'd throw in my two cents worth.
I'll start with 98L. It shares one thing in common with 97L; that is it's convection is lined up from SW to NE and a bit to SE of the broad center. And the center is still very large, I don't see signs of a tight LLC yet. Of the three, it's easily the weakest , but in an interesting spot. I think this one gets caught above the ridge and really doesn't threaten anybody. Something to watch anyway.
97L is one that's real close to the house. Looking much better this afternoon, I'd give it a 70% chance of becoming a TS. I've already had one encounter with this system, just as it passed off of Jax and started spinning it dumped about 4 inches of rain in about a two hour time period on my house. We had not seen a steady downpour without the thunder and lightning like this all summer, so I think it has a good bit of energy going for it. It's convection is getting closer to the center, and if it drifts southeastward and then goes west I might get a return of the rain, this time with a name.
Wasn't Frances a talking mule in some movie?
Now that I got my cheap shot at her in, this Frances seems more like a humming buzzsaw. Yes, she took a jog almost due north for a few frames, but has settled back into a NW direction, which means she's going exactly where she supposed to go. The NHC has started looking out beyond 5 days, and they don't like what they see. This ridge looks to be strong after 48 hours, in fact, it's as weak as it's going to get at this moment. If ( big if) it builds all the back to the SE coast, then it doesn't really matter if Frances get's to 18N or 22N, she's only going so far before she has no choice but to haul butt west. Whole east coast is in question, it will take a few more days to narrow this one down. Gut feeling is this will hit land on a WNW track, making no one safe until she passes north of you.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:17 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Quote:
JB also admonished Gulf Coasters that the potential for tropical mischief is as great now as it's ever been, so not to let down your guard.
What do you think JB means by this statement? Since he implies that Frances will be an East Coast storm and there isn't anything on the horizon to threaten the GOM'ers? Just curious on your thoughts of his statement?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Northward Wobble!
|
sounds almost like and Andrew Scenario somewhere on east coast albeit we are too far out to know for sure..
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:23 PM |
|
|
|
97L
|
This system has excellent outflow, the cirrus clouds obscure the devloping rain bands, it is very orgainzed by looking a the visble sat. imagery but its convection is off to the southwest of the devloping LLC. This system has the chance to become a tropical storm as I metioned in another post, it's feeding off the sun and will continue to do so until about 6:00. Tom. I feel it will become a depression and then strenghten further to tropical storm satus or maybe even cat. 1. As we have seen before these homegrown systems can pack a wallop.
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:38 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Whoa. Without infringing too seriously on JB's right to limit his thoughts to paying customers, can you be a little more specific as to the "dooms day scenario"? My neck of the woods (Hilton Head Island) has led a charmed existence regarding hurricanes for far too long. I wonder if a one - two, or even a one - two - three punch is about to even up the scorecard?
Was it Han Solo, or Luke Skywalker, who said "I've got a bad feeling about this . . . "?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:52 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Han Solo
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 05:56 PM |
|
Compact systems
|
How large/small a storm is isn't really a function of overall intensity. It does tend to limit how fast a storm grows/decays, however; smaller storms can spin up faster but are also more impacted by shear and other negating effects. There can be very intense storms that are very large, and there can be very intense storms that are very small.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
I thought a strong and lasting ridge would push the systems (SC, Bermuda, and Frances) to the west- it all depends on the timing of all of their developments.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
A few responses:
>>Interesting to see if he is right.. Its easy to say NC/SC based upon historical info. If I were a betting man
His reasoning is the Newfoundland Wheel high pressure setup rather than an Andrew setup (high centered over Philly with a NE US Heatwave).
Ticka,
His response to the sleepyheads in the West and Central Gulf has to do with this:
High Res Gulf SST's
He believes the cooler than normal water off the South American coast is leading to higher than normal pressures and a deflection mechanism into the gulf later in the season.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:30 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Lets see about a rebound from the Earl disaster that 95% of us took in forcasting. 1st blown 1 of the year for me and I average 2. Thank god it wasnt a landfalling hurricane blown forcast but still I didnt expect Earl to do much in the early going, and it was a 5 day forcast, nevertheless still a X for me.
Frances is going to be the tuffest forcast of the year so faroverthe next week or so.Gaston should form over the next 12-24 hours when recon gets in there. Should be a minimum TS but might get stronger as he brushes the Carolinas sunday and head NE and picking up speed. Pressure still pretty high off SC but slowly falling. This could become a depression later this evening.
Back to Frances,,,,,,tough tough call and how I forcast these systems I give a 3 day and 5 day scope. 5 day forcast of strength(always hard to tell) and landfall or position within 100 miles of a 100 mile zone. 3 days within 50 miles of a 50 miles zone. I stay with that forcasts and if changed then its a blown forcast. For example Frances should be around 110-120mph near 18N and 60 monday afternoon. By weds aft near 20N and 70W. Winds too hard to tell do to very close prox to Hispaniola.
Models are spread out after Sunday morning12z. First the tropical suite of models generally change from run to run. Example is the A98E which is usually all over the place with the LBAR model. BAMMS generally do alittle better but overall the suite is useless. They generally dont factor in many aspects of the atmosphere for example Mid or upper lows.
Globel models generally dont pick up on strength of system out of the tropics that well and initializes them too weak and begins paths then off the correct track for a system stronger. For Frances the Nogaps has a better handle of her bringing her almost due NW between Bermuda and the Carolinas by weds, but nogaps has been to the right and will disregard this path due to it not having the strong zonal ridge forcasted over the western atlantic Sunday thru the next several days. Ukmet is farther Sw and the GFS (preferred model) is just sw of the UKmet off Hispaniola (north). GFDL is not the most reliable model (constantly changing) as its performance at times is that of the tropical model suite. This model is close to the UKmet about 150 miles nne of the GFS. Im going with the better GFS and UKmet as they have a better handle of the mid and upper ridge that is forcasted to develop and also there will be some shear keeping her a strong cat 2 of (hate to say it (weak) Cat 3). THIS COULD BE A VERY DANGEROUS STORM IN THE SW BAHAMAS LATER NEXT WEEK. Though the forcast i give now dont go out more then 5 days. To say this is going to Carolinas isnt set no more then Texas. Florida is the U.S. first threat by Friday into the weekend next week. Remember models change and anything more then not only 5 but 3 days out will change. In the short term though i expect the NW course to continue with wobbles and a turn later tomorrow to the W near 17-18N. Scottsvb
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:32 PM |
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Actually, "I have a bad feeling about this" was exclaimed by...
Luke in Episode IV when he sees the Death Star for the first time,
Han in Episode IV inside the trash compactor...
Leia in Episode V inside the space-slug cave...
And Obi Wan in Episode I at some point I believe...
Onto the point at hand though. While it's far too soon to know exactly where in the CONUS we might see problems from these developing systems, it doesn't take a doctorate in meteorology to see that we have some potential scenarios that could spell Trouble with a captiol "T" for a lot of folks. I can see why some are getting bad vibes at the moment.
It's true that residents of the South Carolina "Low Country" and the "Coastal Empire" of Southeast Georgia have lived a charmed life for many years. They haven't had a direct hit since David in 1979, and that was only a Cat 1. I can tell you from personal experience as a former resident of that area that far too many people think they are somehow immune to major hits. The last minute turn of Hugo started this. The debacle that was the Floyd evacuation worsened the situation, prompting many to say they'll ignore advisories and avoid the "inconvenience" of the next evacuation, because the storms always turn north. If they'd take a look at local weather history for the past 200 years, and flood potential maps for the area, they'd be singing a different tune. Sorry to rant about one particular geographic area, but I'm convinced that a direct hit to that area will catch far too many off-guard.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:32 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
The 2:00 TWO on the 2 invests:
1015 MB LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST
APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS
AREA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN
A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM ANYTIME WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIES JUST OFFSHORE THE SE UNITED
STATES COAST...THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
1016 MB LOW PRESSURE LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM S OF BERMUDA.
WHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SE OF THE LOW CENTER DURING THE
DAY...THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.
NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:32 PM |
|
Station 41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA
|
Here's a bouy link:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41008
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 4 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.9 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 72.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.8 °F
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:36 PM |
|
Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8
|
Here is another Bouy:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 18 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 19 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.03 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.1 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.8 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 80.6 °F
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:46 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Kal- We think very much alike (and enjoy the same movies).
I am often aggravated by the total lack of concern most people show around here. In preparation for a possible "back door" Charley, I spent half a day preparing my boat for wind and possible surge. Not a SINGLE other boat owner in the marina made any preparations.
Anyway, it would be nice if these three (potentially) systems were complex puzzles to track and forecast, but ultimately went to sea. Ain't gonna happen this time. As soon as I see Jim Cantore on the beach here, I'm outa Dodge.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:46 PM |
|
Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8
|
I think we have TD 7
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8
|
Yep NRL has listed 07L Noname on its site, we will have TD 7 at 5.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:49 PM |
|
|
Re: Station TYBG1 - U.S. Navy Tower R8
|
Only a dew point difference of 3 degrees, and 15kts wind speed and the barometric pressure is dropping, somethings brewing out there and it doesn't smell good!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:51 PM |
|
|
|
RECON (It's about time too...)
|
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
FLIGHT ONE
A. 28/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 28/1600Z
D. 31.5N 80.0W
E. 28/1700Z TO 29/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE FRANCES
NEAR 19.5N AND 56.0W AT 29/1800Z. A GIV MISSION FOR 30/0000Z
DEPARTING AT 29/1800Z AND WC130 SURVEILLANCE MISSION DEPARTING
AT 29/1800Z. PSBL INVEST SOUTH OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N AND 70W
FOR 29/2100Z.
| Hurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 06:52 PM |
NHC Statement on TD7
|
There is a Disturbance Statement existing:
000
WONT41 KNHC 271818
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004
SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND POSSIBLY FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY SATURDAY.
FORECASTER STEWART
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:00 PM |
|
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
The weather pattern for Frances sure is looking a lot like it did for Andrew. Quite scary! Next week is going to be interesting.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:17 PM |
|
|
|
Frances goes MAJOR
|
As I had earlier suspected, Dvorak's are in:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/1745 UTC 31.7N 77.7W T1.5/1.5 97
27/1745 UTC 15.4N 49.2W T5.5/5.5 FRANCES
That makes Frances 102kts (probably even higher), so it becomes our THIRD MAJOR CANE in AUGUST!
Weren't we all complaining about the slow start to the season less than one month ago? Well, we're about to get a whole season of weather in a month...and we're not even to peak season yet.
2004 is definitely one for the record books.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:29 PM |
|
|
Re: Frances goes MAJOR
|
Wow-that's all I can say about the tropics right now. Frances is an amazing storm to watch on visible satellite loops. And I certainly didn't expect the little surprise that the SE system therw at us. It wasn't looking good yesterday, but it is now a TD. Should mostly be a rainmaker for the Carolinas through the weekend.
Frances is the big story. I really don't have much else to add to what everyone else as well as the forecasters have said. I really don't want to start hyping this storm too early..it's still a full week away from Florida. However...the upper level high that is forecast to build in could bode VERY well for intensification. The storm is already at 105 miles per hour and an upper level ridge will build in over the weekend...sending the storm more westward with favorable conditions. I can barely fathom how much potential this system has. Can't say much else at this time.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances goes MAJOR
|
>>> The storm is already at 105 miles per hour
Actually, that was at 11:00. It's more like 120 mph now. Yeesh.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:43 PM |
|
Re:Question about what I see
|
I was studying the water vapor loop for the basin and zoomed in on the area off the carolinas. My question is this. To me it looks like the formation behind the one closest to the coast is feeding off the one on the coast, yet could it be the opposite? I know I see one flowing into the other. I think.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 07:54 PM |
|
Re:Question about what I see
|
Well I hope we don't get hit here again by Frances. Charley already has weakened everything and all we need is a cane to come through and finish off the job. We'll just have to start all over if Frances decides to hit us, the'll be hardly anything left. Just not time to panic, not yet at least. Just hope and pray it doesn't come to our doorstep.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re:Question about what I see
|
TD#7 formed on the remains of the frontal boundary, the remains of the frontal boundary are indicated by the high water vapor content. It's not techinally channeling air from system to system, the moist air just resides in the frontal boundary where the two systems formed. Good question.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:36 PM |
|
Re:Question about what I see
|
TD 7 is a good reason why we need to have a hurricane center and weather watchers. In anticipation of coming days potential, when was the last time we had 3 active trop. cyclones all at the same time in the Atlantic?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:37 PM |
|
|
TD7 Advisory 1
|
Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2004
...Tropical Depression Seven forms off the South Carolina coast...
...Tropical storm watch issued...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
portions of the southeastern U.S. Coast from Surf City North
Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach Florida.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 31.6 north...longitude 78.1 west or about
140 miles... 225 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.
The depression is nearly stationary. A slow westward drift is
expected to begin later tonight. This motion could bring the center
closer to the southeastern U.S. Coast on Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...
and the depression could become a tropical storm on Saturday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb...29.94 inches.
The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall. Locally
heavy rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the
track of the depression.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...31.6 N... 78.1 W. Movement...
nearly stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1014 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Looks like this one is primarily a BIG TIME rainmaker. Something that area probably does not need, particularly if Frances comes knocking next week.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD7 Advisory 1
|
Isn't that the kind of track that Alex was forecast to take earlier in the year?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:50 PM |
|
|
|
TD7 Forecast Track
|
No, I don't think Alex was forecasted to go inland...
TD7 Track
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD7 Forecast Track
|
Having just checked the archives, the first advisory on Alex had it going ashore in NC, and then emerging back into the Atlantic:-
Alex Advisory #1
But you're right, the track didn't take the storm as far inland as this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:08 PM |
|
Monster Hurricane
|
Just saw latest advisory. This storm is going to be a category 5 before we realize it. It is almost perfectly organized and appears to be rapidly intensifying. How do you think its slow forward movement will affect its track? I would think if it was a faster mover like andrew it would impact South Florida but because its so slow it will eventually be picked up by a trough and thrown out to sea
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
Great Stacey Stewart comment (and why he's the best they have):
Frances is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and over
increasing SSTs throughout the period. The SHIPS intensity model
now makes Frances a 113 kt major hurricane in 48 hours...since the
'self-induced' vertical shear has decreased owing to the GFS
forecast positons being closer to the official track forecast.
There will likely be several fluctuations in the intensity over the
next 5 days...but category four intensity seems likely some time
during that period...and category 5 strength is even possible
Steve
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
I dont think so. Im leaning towards east coast north central florida or south georgia coast. Youre right though, its a big one!
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:17 PM |
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
Hey guys,
just a quick post - looks like, that while everyone seems a little occupied with Frances, the TD just off the SE US Coast could cause some real problems! Its a reasonably well developed system, but its a slow mover, going nowhere fast! This gives it plenty of oppurtunity to drop some pretty immense rainfall on parts of GA, SC, and possibly NC. Certainly something worth watching in the immediate future i think!
Regards
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
>>> I would think if it was a faster mover like andrew it would impact South Florida but because its so slow it will eventually be picked up by a trough and thrown out to sea
There are many possibilities with Frances, including a possible ramping up to a CAT V (Agree Steve, Stewart is DA MAN). But one thing that is virtually certain is that Frances is not going to spin the fishes. This is going to hit the US mainland, probably as a Major cane, somewhere...if it's to be Florida then it will probably be Friday-Saturday, elsewhere closer to Labor Day.
For the time being, let's keep those landfall guesses in the storm forum, not the main boards. Also let's keep the CAT V commentary down, as we don't want to scare someone with that possibility until and if such time actually occurs. Remember Sandia Flower from last year...
Great posts today guys!
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
That would depend on the location, intensity, and lifespan of the ridge. I don;t know what that would be, do you?
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
Quote:
>>> Also let's keep the CAT V commentary down, as we don't want to scare someone with that possibility until and if such time actually occurs. Remember Sandia Flower from last year...
Great posts today guys!
Pssssttt I agree with keeping the Cat V rumbling down, but whats his name on channel 13 just told everyone that Frances has excellent possibilities of making Cat V. I think the cat is outta the bag.
thunder boomers movin in, im outta here, lost one pc to charley and this is my new one. I dont mess with canes and lightening.
| StormLover |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:45 PM |
|
Re: Monster Hurricane
|
I wouldn't say the talk of Frances becoming a Category 5 storm is premature. It looks very compact and there seems to be a lot of convection and room for further strengthening. It is still days away from land, so much more time remains for it to gain strength. It may well end up making landfall somewhere between the northeastern Florida panhandle and Ga/South Carolina border. Providing no frontal system interferes, I would guess it will be a Category 4 at least when it makes landfall, maybe Category 5.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:46 PM |
|
|
Frances News Hype
|
The scary thing is that what the news media is going to do when this hurricane reaches it's peak intensity, I remember Isabel was first perdicted to hit long island and the news was going crazy, buy, buy,buy. Sometimes I think they overdo it, but then again it's better to be prepared then to not be. I hope this one doesn't go where it's perdicted to, this is a perfect canditate for project storm fury, which in my opinion worked.
Truth is that no one actually knows where it will go, not even the NHC they can only make educated guesses, so don't get worried yet Floridians.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances News Hype
|
Keith,
Isabel was never "perdicted" to hit Long Island; we did have TS warnings go up near the very end, but I don't even think we saw a TS gust. Regarding the media, however, you are exactly right. People around here old enough to remember Gloria fueled the frenzy and it didn't help that it was the hottest story for about four or five days.
Isabel sure scared the hell out of a lot of people and rightly so.
With regard to the CAT V hoopla, if that's what you're going to discuss, discuss away. To be honest, I have a feeling it will reach that intensity...all the right ingredients are there...excellent outflow boundaries...low shear environment (for now anyway)...strong bermuda high which will also increase outflow and cause strengthening...strong ridge forecasted to be in place...above average ssts. Let's just see how strong she gets. As I said a couple of days ago...a classic Cape Verde longtracker.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 09:57 PM |
|
Re: Frances News Hype
|
key line in the 5pm adv
category 5 strength is even possible
It's not everyday that we here that from the NHC
Just Frances !
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD7 Forecast Track
|
The Alex track was not forecasted to go that far inland but it could have, as indicated by the white. The intensity forecast is nearly the same when Alex first started, we'll see but this might also become the next major cane, if it skirts the coast. This storm depending on when it starts on it's track it could affect LI but right now the trough would push it out to sea. Lets see what will happen.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:21 PM |
|
Hurricane Charley
|
Where do you guys think Hurricane Charley ranks in terms of strongest Hurricanes to Hit the U.S. I would guess
1. Labor Day 1935
2. Camille
3. Andrew
4. Charley
5. Donna
6. Hugo
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Charley
|
frances could be near camille, it is becoming a very dangerous hurricane. the bahamas ...... if the ridge is strong it will not go north.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:31 PM |
|
|
|
Frances' future
|
>>> This storm depending on when it starts on it's track it could affect LI but right now the ridge would push it out to sea
No, actually the ridge would allow it to continue whatever movement it is currently tracking. Hurricanes slip under ridges...a trof, however, would have the opposite effect and serve to pick a hurricane up and take away from the CONUS.
You sound a little bit like you are trying to wish this bad girl our way. Be very careful what you wish for. Just ask anyone who just went through Charley who thought it might be 'fun' to have a cane come their way.
I'd love for this thing to turn away but it's not gonna happen. Someone somewhere is going to be seeing a whole world of hurt. The best thing we can hope for is for deintensification as she reaches the mainland and for an eyewall replacement cycle to be occurring as well...but those only really happen in major canes...so the next best thing is to be prepared...very prepared.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:35 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Charley
|
also remember gilbert.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD7 ....models?
|
Are there models up for td2?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD7 ....models?
|
Quote:
Are there models up for td2?
Yes, it eventually became TS Bonnie and made landfall on the Florida panhandle. Just kidding...
TD 7:
td7 models
Only two so far, but more to come fer sher.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:46 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Charley
|
yes i was right in the middle of hurricane charley in orlando life still is not back to normal 2 weeks later .i finally got my power back but there is still no power for some people ...charley did alot of damage to my house and left my neighbor homeless !!thewinds were very scary but there wasnt much rain ih ope frances gos away but its not looking good
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances' future
|
Thanks for correcting my mistake, I have much to learn from you guys. I wouldn't say I'm wishcasting (or what you call it) but it's they way I think, reverse psychogly, if I say it's going to happen it doesn't(or something along those lines). But your right, I never really experinced a strong hurricane, expect Gloria so I don't now what it's like, I'm only a beginner at this.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 10:56 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Charley
|
I think the best we can hope for is that while it is not an immediate threat to land it will go ahead and reach its maximum intensity and then be on the wind down by the time it gets near land. That way any troughiness, cold front, or upperlevel anomaly would have more shearing effect on whats left. I know that the models do not give this information this far in advanced, but no one needs this hurricane to be a CAT 5 unless it is out in the middle of the Pacific Ocean going in circles.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:00 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances
|
Charley was scary enough here in Orlando, don't want to think about a possible stronger storm hitting here.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Charley
|
It's obviously way to early to try to pinpoint a landfalling position. The dubious thing is that this will make a US mainland landfall. There is no escaping that at this point. The ridge will certainly be strong enough to bring the storm to east coast if not across Florida and into the Gulf. It's really amazing to me, even after all these years studying canes and meteorology in general, how in awe of these things I am. Frances is just an amazing storm already, and she hasn't even hit 50W. The "buzz-saw" look to it just reminds me so much of Andrew and it's obviously taking a somewhat similar track (generalization, i.e. the upcoming bend back to the west) as its 1992 counterpart. It's looks like it's going to be bad news for someone.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:22 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances
|
Looks like she's getting more symetrical, I guess that means she's strengthening even more. Maybe it would be a Cat. 4 at 11, or maybe 5 tomorrow morning. Thats not good news to have that strong of a storm still far out there in the Atlantic, hope it doesn't reach Cat. V.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Frances
|
Without the benefit of recon and due to the fact that daytime strengthening will probably have diminished, I would think it highly unlikely there will be any upgrade before tomorrow. It's already strengthened from a TD to a CAT III in 48 hours (give or take). However, if the Dvorak's come in high at the 2345Z, it's possible, but unlikely. Add to the fact that, while it is a CAT III, it's just barely a CAT III, so it would take a fairly good amount of strengthening to make the jump. Will be watching it tho...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Aug 27 2004 11:31 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances
|
That's true, I forgot their not doing recons yet. That is quite a big leap in intensity.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 12:06 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances
|
latest nrl shows it getting stonger looks like. could be around 125 tomite cat 4 sat.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 12:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Off topic-slightly
|
Has anyone seen or heard mention of the Low located North of Frances and East of TD7. Or have I missed something somewhere?
More specifically located at 28.9N and 65.2W at 0015Z.
Nice low level circulation and convection appears to be firing up. Another problem to reckon with.
What nam,e comes after "Gaston"?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 12:39 AM |
|
|
|
2345 T#s
|
27/2345 UTC 31.3N 78.2W T1.5/1.5 07
27/2345 UTC 16.0N 50.0W T5.0/5.5 FRANCES
As I suspected, not only will Frances not be upgraded at 11:00, it's possible (though not likely) she might even be downgraded. Still a weak CAT III. And that's where she'll be by morning light.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 01:03 AM |
|
Re: Off topic-slightly
|
Hermine
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 01:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hermine
|
Thanks Guppygrouper. I see TPC/NHC is keeping an eye on it too! They should be running out of eyes-no pun intended.
I see 4 tropical systems on 1 satellite shot.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 01:12 AM |
|
Re: Hermine
|
Actually, the more, the better. Then they may start interfering with each other and keep anything from being completely out of control.Besides, I don't really care for the name Hermine, and don't think even a hurricane should get stuck with it.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 01:52 AM |
|
|
Re: Hermine
|
Is it just me or does it look like its about to do the eye wall replacment thing
BTW, take your little advertisement for the $50 out of there or I will ax your next post(s) if I let it get that far...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 01:57 AM |
|
|
|
NEW THREAD!
|
First off, Hardcore, we've got a new thread. Secondly, what did I say about posting images....don't make me angry. All future replies should be addressed on the new thread!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 02:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NEW THREAD!
|
Sorry I just scrolled to the last page in this thread and didn't see that I could not post here or post images.
Have a good night
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 28 2004 03:01 AM |
|
Re: 2345 T#s
|
it looks better now than 2 hrs,ago, eye is better, it will ramp up sat. morning.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 07:58 PM |
|
Re: JB Midday Missive
|
Well taking a guess that if Frances hits the east FL coast ............and I say when rather than if that it will cut across the state like Charley did and be backdoor action for the gulf side.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:09 PM |
|
Probabilities of a SC impact?
|
I am watching the current track of Frances and even with the ridge of pressure that is supposed to keep it south of South Carolina what is the likihood of a more northward turn?
I have noticed in the past that a sharp turn to the north is fairly consistent even with the high pressure ridge.