(User)

Sat Aug 28 2004 11:58 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward

Gaston is growing up....

REPORTS FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT GASTONS MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH
AND GASTON COULD LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING
THE COAST LATE SUNDAY. COMPLETE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN AN
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT 8 PM EDT.

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:00 AM

Evening...

Well well well...

Hurricane WARNINGS are now up for SC. Gaston may just ramp up onto a weak CAT I. Frances...can't add anything other than what has already been said...I think we really need to hold off on the potential landfall "guesses" until Tuesday...hell...she won't even be in the Bahamas by then.

Be ready, be prepared and be wise.

Robert, I made a comment in the last thread at the end of your post, but welcome back and you're welcome to post here. Mike & John have established a few simple rules...play by them and we're cool. I'd really rather not edit anything, so feel free to post but just make sure the post is kosher. BTW, are you psyched for the surf later this week or what?

OK, we've got one monster a week away and another threat in Gaston, and a possible third ("Hermine"?) down the road (the Bermuda puzzle). This is going to be one hell of a stressful week for a lot of people, so keep up the great posts and enjoy (???) the weather.

DMFischer

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:49 AM

Curious thought from an Idle mind

I was pondering....How many surfers become storm watchers..or visa versa...after all canes spawn some nice waves.

Also, since I have your attention, NOT that it could happen, but, what if Gaston and Frances headed the same way and meet, would that be something like the "perfect storm" scenerio?
Thanks

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:53 AM

Re: Evening...

Quote:

BTW, are you psyched for the surf later this week or what?

Just spoke with a buddy that got back from beach (Sullivan's here in Charleston) - shoulder high in the sets. Looks like tomorrow will be blown out )to say the least), but I know Folly is pushing head to overhead. I am 4 months out of knee surgery (ACL) and wishing that I could enjoy the waves week a little more than I think I will be able to.

Parts of hurricane season I love (waves) - other parts make my stomach churn (landfall).

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:54 AM

Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind

I was a surfer years ago and learned to watch the weather for changes in the conditions. That experience comes in handy as I am now in Emergency Management for a City in Volusia County Florida. Regretfully, I have been very busy lately...

Michael

javlin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:12 AM

Re: Evening...

Phil seems the GFS solution starting to possibly be the strong sceniro.The synoptic pattern is what some of the mets are looking at and that these can be fairly accurate that many days out.At least that is just of the conversation I got over at S2K.The synoptic patterns are basically using what we talk about having activity in the Pacific we look for something in the 10>14 range in the Atlantic.Please correct me if I am wrong.Still learning.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:13 AM

Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind

Speaking of surfing I still have a vintage 1970 Hobie Cat surfboard hanging up in my garage... been there done that... check out the 06 forecast from hurricane alley... wow...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06L.html

GSF and UKMET also don't bode well for S FL...

http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LMDL04.html

then again for every model that show S Fl there are others that show something more to the north... I still don't see the Floyd scenario right now... maybe it will come at the 11th hour and save the great state of Florida ... maybe not

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:49 AM

Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind

Hey Frank P, maybe time to put some wax on that board

I have not said much on the models yet but I direct my attention to the UKMET. I think it has the grasp on Frances for now. Just gut more than anything. Things probably will change a few more times before the bell.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:53 AM

UKMET

Hope it's not following the UKMET, it shows Frances going right into the exact same area of Dade County that Andrew did. I guess tomorrow night at this time the 5 day point will be right over Miami if all things stay the same.

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:54 AM

Re: Evening...

>>> Phil seems the GFS solution starting to possibly be the strong sceniro.The synoptic pattern is what some of the mets are looking at and that these can be fairly accurate that many days out.At least that is just of the conversation I got over at S2K.

Well, if S2K said it, then it's as good as done. NOT. For all the folks in FLA, I sure hope this recurves, but right now, that doesn't appear to be the first option. Ne'er the less, these CV monstah's want to recurve...will that happen??? Don't know and won't know for at least three more days. Of course, if it does recurve, then I'm somewhat under the bullseye, so I don't know what to think...or say...All I guess there is left to say is be ready...be smart...be safe.

Come Tuesday, well, then we'll have a better handle on things.

For now,

LI Phil

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:58 AM

Recon

When is the next recon flight scheduled for Gaston?

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 01:59 AM

Re: Evening...

Phil, What do you make of this latest GFS (1800z) loop? It seems to have moved it's track N a bit actually touching S Florida rather than S of Key West like on the OOz run. Also, maybe a tad East. Is the GFS starting to agree with the UKMET do you suppose?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Gaston appears to be 'on track, on target'. This makes me wonder, how many major hurricanes have made landfall in the same state in one season previously? How many named storms have done so in the past?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:01 AM

Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind

Coop, we get a Cat 5 in Biloxi and I'll be able to ride that surfboard right out of my garage as it will get about 5 feet of water in it right off the GOM (Camille put 22 feet where I live on the beach, and 25+ just to the east of the eye in Bay St. Louis MS (with her 190 sustained winds).... not counting on that to happen with Frances, or at least certainly not hoping, but as everyone else I'm going to monitor this thing and make plans as necessary.... still could go NORTH as some models want to take it....... however, I did start restocking extra supplies today, this time of the year you need to be prepared.... if not Frances, then something later.... I am not going to fight the masses and lines.... hey, the GOM is hot as hell and anything gets cranking could make for another major player down the road..... what a event next week will bring with this storm... if things continue to go as forecasted..... we'll see

meto

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:07 AM

Re: Evening...

francis may turn around the west side of the ridge after it has come into fla. right up the middle of the state. or into the gulf after crossing statethen turn back.if ridge is strong and into the s.e. like i heard today. it will not be able to turn north. until it gets on other side of the high.floyd was curved off with help of a trof, there will be no trof in south this time.

LI Phil

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:14 AM

GFS track...

Richard,

You are asking the wrong person, unfortunately. Although, I agree the GFS has been behaving unusually well this year. I still think Frances is going to "stair step" for the next day or so...that's why no point on the EC is out of the question until Tuesday...However, if my home were in Miami, I'd have my disaster kit ready and the car fully gassed up. It's weird, even up here on Long Island, I went to Costco (huge giant company for bulk purchases, and they have for sale, a terrorism kit...very similar to a hurricane kit...damn near bought the thing, just in case.) So, while it won't make you feel better, I'm ready to roll if Frances decides to do what long-tracking CV storms like to do...turn north.

Just be ready to roll and keep watching the coast...if they tell you to leave...get the hell out of there.

Pray for our neighbors to the south..the Bahamas. It's damn near a given they're getting a CAT IV early next week.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:15 AM

Historical comparisons to Frances

Spent a good part of the day going over old storm tracks from a great book a good friend sent me. Historical Climo Series. As wonderful as playing with unisys online (and others) its not the same as a book you can flip back and forth and absorb the info better. I think.. good book, good friend. And...this is what I have come up with...

Following certain parameters...
Finding years with storm tracks through the S Carib.
Finding years with a hit on Florida west coast.
Finding years with sw to ne oriented hits on S. Carolina/Ga region
Finding storms in the current area (or extrapolated might have been before sat imagery)

This is what I find most interesting.

1871... storm in late August..
Comes in through the islands and makes a nw curve up over... into GA
That year features two NW florida hits but higher up...

1885... storm shows that it formed north of PR but there is no way of knowing if it started earlier. Shows a ridge in place and storm takes a sudden turn up and off and barely touching the Florida coast and coast into South Carolina.

That year had a storm come across Cuba into the Tampa/W Coast area as well as several storms fly through Ga on their way back out to the Atlantic from the Gulf. Though we didn't have much of a Gulf season and that one did.

1893... a Year no one wants to repeat. Ever especially in Ga/SC.

A storm going NW through Florida out thru GA to ocean and a storm from a similar place following similar projected path but turning in the Bahamas up the Florida coast and slamming into Ga/Sc region. Bad storm. Killed a lot of people. Infamous in that region. Acutually had two similar storm paths both hitting SC after heading towards Florida with a hard right turn.

1899
Storm went through the islands... moved up David like but went into South Carolina after a strong hard right turn. Also fetured a storm going through W Florida.

1937
Storm comes towards Florida from SE at a cord close to where Frances could be tomorrow or the next day. Moves around a ridge and ends up pulling nnw up towards just north of the Cape.. say Daytona.. That year featured a storm moving across FL after a hit near Tampa.

1960...
Donna.. any "up and over the island" track reminds us of Donna.

1964
Dora... Dora came in higher than Frances is but did take a path similar if a high builds in..

And features Cleo that took a path lower and came up from a much lower position than where Frances is so..discounting but mentioning. More concerned on Dora track though that is very different from current NHC thinking so..not really a big possibility.

All in all 1899 and 1893 are the two years that I think most reflect this year.

There are many years where a storm threatened from a similar place but I tried to choose years which had tracks that I thought this storm is and could continue following with similar other aspects.

Personally.. think it makes a hard right just before South Florida.. closer than Floyd. Worry more on say WPB to Melbourne in that turn but think its very possible a track similar to the infamous 1893 storm could occur.

Take care... I wish everyone here lots of luck.. we'll all need it.

Bobbi

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:15 AM

Re: Curious thought from an Idle mind

Frank P, just wax to maintain value and hopefully not for that actual use! I feel all of us on the GOM coast are ready and waiting... hopefully. I also agree there is a chance for the north turn.... it will do it sooner or later but now would be a good time. Just in case all please be ready.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:26 AM

Re: Historical comparisons to Frances

Here's a link I use for comparisons. It takes a while to get familiar with it.
Just use "last extent" for the last map.
Tracks by every parameter!
BTW- It gives the category you select and all above that category.
Broadband/DSL best for "All years" loading.
http://hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

SC Bill

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:46 AM

Re: Historical comparisons to Frances

Been a rather eventful day here in the South Carolina lowcountry. Watching Frances turn into a monster, Gaston churned up out of nowhere to everyone's surprise (at least to anyone's surprise who only watches TWC) . . . whew, time to go to bed.

Then loiscane/bobbistorm, whom I believe I remember from eons ago on an aol hurricane board, had to put year 1893 on the table.

Beaufort County, SC did not have a good year that year. I will private message you, my friend, when I can't sleep tonite . . . not from the alternately gusty then eerily still wind, but rather from the thought that Frances will follow in Gaston's tiny footsteps with another one for the record books.

Let us all hope there is yet a way that Frances is remembered as the disaster that might have been.

Good luck to all.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 02:52 AM

Re: Forecast Advisory

The new Advisories are out and can be viewed under the "Current Storm" headings.
NHC has changed Frances' 4 day and 5 day positions somewhat.
The fcst from 24hrs ago had 02/0000z 23.5N/ 70.0W
The newest fcst has............02/0000z 22.4N/ 70.6W
Not sure if that's good news or what, yet.

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 03:16 AM

Re: Forecast Advisory

I am still not convinced based on the latest models that this is not a GOM storm. She is a monster and I figure a Cat 5 before landfall. Stay tuned to the same Bat Channel and the same Bat Time! Hope she turns out to be a Fisher!

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 03:18 AM

Re: Forecast Advisory

cetainly tracking frances

we don't need anything right now in Central Florida or south Florida
will see as the last 3 days the projection has moved a little more North. Going to watch Tuesdsay very close for what noah says about Frances. Not getting to hyped yet ...

Keep all of us in and here in Florida in your thoughts. Those in the Bahamas too.

will be watching and waiting (praying too)

Just want it to go away.

JustMe

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 03:18 AM

Re: Forecasted slowdown in forward speed

According to Norcross. Said that it seems NHC expects Frances to go a little slower as it approaches bahamas/florida and there fore they pulled back timing so cone looks further offshore.

Reiterated ...could go NW at that point or keep coming.

Said... Gaston could leave slowly and leave a low pressure area between the two highs (one over SE US and one over Atlantic) and Frances could take it or... Gaston leaves faster and the high fuses together. (my own wording to shorten a long explanation) eww.. anyway..

So... that was what I understood was the change.

Storms often stall there when steering currents slip away. Betsy, Bonnie and I think Donna stalled a bit too.

Had thought of 1893 track when thinking Frances could turn north just off shore but... didnt realize that the year I think has other similar tracks. Will see. Hate to put it there.. felt sick thinking on it however.. deaths at that time were caused by no warning and people living on low lying barrier islands.. which would be different as far as loss of human life vs economic impact.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 03:45 AM

ps... gfdl

Seems to see the weakness left by Gaston moving 3mph and may I add that Gaston has developed a deep long tail filling up the area with moisture. Maybe reaching for straws down here in South Florida but... its a possibility. Or..can be pulled that way and then turn back to the west again I suppose.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:29 AM

Re: ps... gfdl

>>Well, if S2K said it, then it's as good as done. NOT.

I think there was a tropical roundtable broadcast. Not one to ever dis my 2nd home site, I've gotta call your mod butt out on that one. If said, it wasn't by a random poster but probably a professional met (they have about 6 that post there). I know you're a member there and were only teasing, but I had to set the record straight for anyone who didn't know that.
------------------------------------------------------
Anyway, Bastardi wins the Gold Medal for Gaston. Let's face it, there's NOBODY in the world putting out the stuff he is or at the same level. One day they'll look back on him as the god of pattern recognition. I'm sticking with my southern North Carolina call from Thursday @ S2K. He cautions everyone from New Orleans to somewhere way up (^) there but likes a NC solution as the compromise. He did mention two things worth noting in his 4th post of the day:

1) His dad has been discussing the idea of a ridge directly following Gaston. We know high pressure will already be building in, but this would be height rises in response to rather than falls left behind as he believes.

2) "I fear any hurricane that gets into the central gulf this year."

Heh. Don't we all. With the water running a good 86 and above throughout, and with analogs like 1985, 1998, 2002 and 1969, discussed here and there. That's a scenario that everyone should fear. There will be landfallS in the Gulf by mid-October.

Props out to everyone in coastal SC tonight. This glass of Sterling 2002 (analog wine) Merlot is for you. /wish I was there. With the slow movement, I'm betting rainfall estimates from earlier (3-5") are underdone. I'd be willing to bet there's at least localized of 10+.

Party on.

Steve

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:41 AM

Re: Hard to follow that

Rain looks like it could get out of hand, ahead and behind of Gaston. One of the tropical experts at TWC said earlier Saturday that the Flash Flood Guidance numbers were relativly high and he didn't expect a lot of flash flooding. I believe that was said prior to the spinup of Gaston and the Recon reports. I'll check HPC for their updates.
COASTAL SC...

BANDING PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH TS OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO
PUSH INTO THE COAST AND WEAKEN. WOULD EXPECT THAT AS THE
STORM INCHES CLOSER ON SUNDAY PCPN INTENSITY WILL INCREASE
AND SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:50 AM

Re: Heads up for Florida

This is a 7 day forecast from HPC. Issued at 7am Saturday morning. It shows a warm front off the E coast of FL, moving north. I'm sorry to say, below the warm front, over Miami is what appears to be Frances. Here's the main page link so you can look. They update in the morning.
*As stated this was forecast at 7AM EDT on 28 Aug-1100Z*
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/premedr.shtml#preliminary

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:56 AM

Re: Heads up for Florida

interesting DW, it also appears to me looking at the plots that the ridge is still going to be strong enough by day 7 to continue to move the system off to the wnw.... if it comes to fruition.... not a very pretty picture for SE Florida....

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:06 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

FP, you must have been reading the same item I was.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE MODELS
FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD WEST INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
THROUGH 36-42 HRS...TO EXTEND AS FAR WEST AS 70W BY 72 HRS.
THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW AND OUTFLOW IN
SUPPORT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE
FRANCES.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:19 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

DW, I've been watching the NRL IR Sat loop for the past hour and Sir Frances is moving due west... at least he has for the past hour.... guess he could start the stair stepping process any minute but for the time being he appears to be going more west than WNW...

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 AM

Re: Sat loops

It would appear the he might be. The sats are in the sun eclipse now and won't be good til about 0615Z or 0215EDT. At least that's the pattern they've run the last couple of nights. About a 2.5 to 3 hours window each night where the sun is directly behind the satellite, in respect to the receiving station. Any way the sun creates so much electrical energy that the satellites can't override the Sun's signal noise.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:34 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

Frank P.
My fear is that Francis will indeed be near SE Florida and then begin a Northward Curve up through the state.
Right around the Western side of the ridge.....???

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:37 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

That's what we were calling the Case 3 scenario. With 1 being a FL Straights-to GOM run. Case 2 a mainland-yuk hit and then the Case 3.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:56 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

well I think your fear is legit...still too early to tell, but most of the lastest model runs, at least the ones the NHC rely on, are still trending towards S FL.... some even taking it into the GOM... as the GFS does ..... things change with hurricanes.... as I've harped endlessly, its all about the ridge with Frances... hurricanes track around em, NOT through em... and this one will probably do that if the ridge is as strong as they are forecasting.... where the northwest to norht turn will occur is anybodys guess.... providing of course the ridge doesn't fall completely apart and we end up with another Floyd type track... which doesn't appear to be a strong possibility at the moment.... but nothing is impossible with these things...

palmetto

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:03 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

I hate to be nitpicky about this, but after all the talk during Charley of spelling the name right and not calling the storm Chuck, Chas, or Charles--I've got to throw this out there.

The storm's name is Frances, not Francis. Frances is the feminine form of said name.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:05 AM

Re: Heads up for Florida

That's pretty much what AF MET and Derek Ortt where looking at the 174hr GFS run.The talk was more about the synobtics than the actual models.The last couple of weeks no troughs digging S.The cool air we had for about three weeks has left.The question is Gaston's effect the faster it moves in the less the effect if any.It might be a wobble FP but morning time will tell.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:06 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

I did call it Frances in my post? So why address this post to me?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:08 AM

Re: Names

I think that's why they used "Alpha, Bravo, and Charlie" in the 50's. No confusion.

palmetto

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:10 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

She'd be a Dame, not a Sir.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:26 AM

Next recon?

Does anyone know if there is a recon tonight for gaston? i see
1. TS GASTON OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 29/1800Z-0000Z
for tommorrow... is there one tonight?

javlin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:43 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

looks 18.3 N 54.0 W

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:43 AM

Re: E Carib. ridge

Probably because you have been calling Frances a he, rather than a she. But I refuse to call them either a he or she, they are an "it" to me. I find it silly that we even attempt to apply gender to any storm, it is meaningless.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:51 AM

Re: Gaston

I am watching radar on gaston in last hr, the NE eyewall has come together more.... looks like he may make Hurricane stats by mid morning or atleast 11:00... there is good banding around the west side to the south and the wraping around to the east is improving... i am impressesd on how close to the coast he flared up in a short time.... just makes me wonder down the road, if Frances gets into the GOM, the SSTs are alot warmer off the west coast of florida, then where gaston is right now (off SC)...Gaston blew up pretty fast yesterday and with the slow movement is still gaininn. Seemed like Charley took note of that after leaving cuba and strengthened very quickly just off the keys.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:09 AM

Re: Next recon?

1100 AM EDT SAT 28 AUGUST 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUG 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-091 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS--NO CHANGE
1. TS GASTON OFF SOUTH CAROLINA
A. 29/1800Z-0000Z
B. AFXXX 0207A GASTON
C. 28/1500Z
D. 32.5N 79.5W
E. 29/1700Z TO 30/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

HRRRICANE FRANCES
FLIGHT ONE...................... FLIGHT TWO
A. 29/1800Z-30/0000Z........ .A. 30/0O00Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FRANCES... ..B. AFXXX 0206A FRANCES
C. 29/1600Z... ....................C. 29/1800Z
D. 19.5N 56.0W... ................D. N/A
E. 29/1700Z-30/0100Z... .......E. N/A
F. SFC TO 10,000FT... ..........F. 31,000-35,000FT
FLIGHT THREE........... FLIGHT FOUR
A. 30/0000Z............ ..........A. 30/0600Z-1200Z
B. NOAA9 0306A FRANCES... ..B. AFXXX 0406A FRANCES
C. 29/1800Z....... ...............C. 30/0400Z
D. N/A.......... ....................D. 20.0N 57.0W
E. N/A......... .....................E. 30/0500Z-1300Z
F. 43,000 TO 45,000 FT... ..F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6HRLY FIXES ON HURRICANE
FRANCES, A GIV MISSION FOR 31/0000Z AND WC130 SURVEILLANCE
MISSION DEPARTING 30/1800Z. PSBL INVEST SOUTH OF BERMUDA
NEAR 29N AND 68W FOR 30/1800Z. BOUY DEPLOYMENT MISSION FOR
30/1800Z
TO 31/0000Z WITHIN 100 MILES OF 22.5N AND 67.0W.

ADDED--P3 MISSION WITH SMRF FOR 30/1800Z INTO FRANCES.--ADDED

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:27 AM

Re: Next recon?

Nothing was scheduled, and there are no obs coming in, so does not look like it.

Bill

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:41 AM

Re: Next recon?

TS Gaston flight should leave Keesler?, at 1100EDT. Tasked to be in the storm area from 13-2030EDT. In the storm itself from 14-2000EDT. If I read that right.

Frances flight should leave at 1200EDT, with storm tasking from 14-2000EDT also. Second and third flight will depart at 1400EDT for upper level recon at 2000EDT. Hurricane Hunters will be gathering data between 31-35,000ft. While the Gulfstream 4 gathers high level data between 43-45,000ft. Simultaneous flights at different altitudes should give better data than a single flight at 700mb.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:09 AM

Re: Gaston update

The Charleston, SC radar loop is showing a shrinking eye over the last 1 hour. Also rainfall in the 3-4 inch range has occured over the last few hours along and just inland of the northern SC coast. In a narrow band from near Myrtle Beach arcing SW to near Orangeburg.
Buoy 41001 at 07z reporting 999.9 mb and 16ft wave. No wind data.

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:21 AM

Re: Gaston update

man, you really are a night owl. storm has probably deepened some more since the last advisory, d rating supporting a minimal hurricane and radar presentation looking about the same to me. 5am advisory will probably bump the system up to hurricane status.. it's window for intensification is closing though as its circulation begins to move onshore. my landfall point was initially tybee/savannah, then edisto sound, now.. looks like isle of palms, sullivans island, or bulls bay. didn't handle that one too well... intensity will probably be close though.
98L looking more ragged than earlier, wouldn't be surprised if next d numbers drop, unless the convection refires. westward steering with this system should deteriorate from here on, though it may get quite close to the hatteras area.. low may open up or entrain ahead of gaston. just the same a solid convective burst could drive the system to tropical storm status.. gulf stream ahead so this is possible.
frances a cat 4.. no surprise. fluctuations from here out.. talk of the cat 5 status exists but that's something i have to see to believe. cat 5s are such rarities it's sort of unkosher to forecast them, official or not.
watching chaba's path as it nears japan. should it teleconnect the primary threat area will be florida to south carolina.. labor day weekend of course. my primary is the east coast of florida.. with the margin of error to the north if anything... not going to bet on south florida below west palm beach. 3-4 range.
HF 0821z29august

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:27 AM

NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb

NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb. As mentioned, the eyewall seems to be shrinking a bit, and either radar is doing a better job of picking up the convection, or the convection is starting to wrap around the eyewall. And either it's wobbling or it's starting to head east of due north.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:29 AM

Re: Night Owl

Looks like TD8 may not materialize. What about the convective complex floating north of Puerto Rico. Another land-based thunderstorm complex or tropical wannabe?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:44 AM

Re: NRL has Gaston at 60Kts and 991mb

I looked at 4 different radar elevations and the top of the eye was small to begin with. Over the hour of looping the lower level eye appeared to have shrunk? to the same size as the upper eye area. This is unusual, as the top of the eye normally opens outward.

* Humorous note*-mod you may remove if you wish.
Off the Trop. Weather Discussion-
HURRICANE FRANCES CENTER NEAR 18.3N 53.4W AT 29/0300 UTC MOVING
WNW 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC OR MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. FRANCE ? CONTINUES TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WNW. THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE SSTS REMAIN WORM ...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.
more ...WITH DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THE REAMING GULF QUIET.
...AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE MID-LATITUDES IT WILL BE A KEY PLAYER HOW FAR
WEST FRANCE WILL TURN.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:52 AM

Re: winds at 70?

whats Gaston up to? Think land shear is taking over

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:03 AM

which way?

just wondering. do you fast forward back a year or rewind back a year? Looks like morning coffee is kicking in. man they got a long day ahead of them in NHC office

000
WTNT41 KNHC 290841
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

FRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED
BACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL. INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:05 AM

Re: which way?

Must be the same guy that was looking for France to move west! Then again I can't blame him. He's got a monster to deal with.
...FRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT
OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD
REACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:07 AM

Frances-One For the Record Book

The NHC and Joe Bastardi may both come up shining with Frances- I wouldn't be surprised if this system becomes a mutliple land falling system.

twice (possibly a looping due to a weakened ridge) in Florida and again

the Carolinas

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:18 AM

Re: Frances-One For the Record Book

i didn't see this yesterday, interesting run.... the worse part in the SSTs are warmer on west side of florida

00z run ukmet

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:23 AM

Re: Frances-One For the Record Book

I just noticed that they changed the 125kt forecast. Now delaying the 125kt increase until Thursday night.
Sunday 5am advisory:
96HR VT 02/0600Z 22.8N 71.4W 125 KT
At 11pm last night it was:
24HR VT 30/0000Z 19.4N 56.3W 125 KT

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:29 AM

Re: Frances-One For the Record Book

The sad part is there is nothing that I see that would contribute to the decaying cycle of Frances until landfall; wherever that may be- somewhere between Miami and Melbourne-too early to even speculate-but given the variables now--who knows?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:33 AM

Re: Take a look here

Have a look at the MCC/ Thunderstorm complex just north of Puerto Rico. We were watching it earlier, but now it looks like a CDO is forming. Could someone have a look. I use the GHCC Sat site.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:49 AM

gaston...

based on radar data, gaston should be ashore within 2 1/2hrs.... don't think cat 1 will happen... i see some weaking signs just off the coast.... beachs near (charleston) should be getting 50kts winds now or real soon...

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:01 AM

Frances

time for everyone in Florida (Jax to the Keys - Pensacola to Ft. Meyers and everyone in between) to start getting serious about Frances. I remember significant damage in Tampa from Andrews who cut way south of us.

We are down to 5 days before landfall and it is time to start the plans in motion. Better to be over prepared than under prepared. Time to get the plywood, hire the contractors, get it up, get the sandbags ready, get supplies, and figure out where you are going.

Frances is for real.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:02 AM

Re: gaston...

Daylight coming up. I guess TWxChannel will have a live shot pretty soon.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 AM

Re: Frances

On a serious note. In addition to the above supplies and destinations. Important papers, deeds, social security info, wills, something that identifies your residence-Utility bills.
If you have the time and means, take photos and or videos of everything in everyroom, inside and out. Use a newspaper to date the video. Just take a good shot of the front page of that day's paper, before you start shooting pics. That will establish when they were taken.
this may belong in the disaster forum.

Visible pics are up.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg

rmbjoe1954

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:24 AM

Re: Take a look here

I can't make much of that recent blowup over Puerto Rico; or even more importantly, what impact will that have on Frances.

Hurric

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:33 AM

Re: Frances

The sw Atlantic is getting crowed with activity. Looking at IR loop now and trying to sort things out this morning.
At 26.5 and 72.5 there is a small spin that the tail from Gaston seems to wrap around. If 98L is north of it and Gaston off SC and Frances far to se, what is this spin? Am I right in thinking it is a ULL? The area of convection north of PR also seems to be moving towards it. I could use an explanation from one of the experts here.
Thanks
Hurric

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:44 AM

Gaston Weather

Check out the following length for a live look at the weather on the Isle of Palms (a beach just east of Charleston). Shows 46 kt peak wind earlier. Pressure down to 998 mb. Unfortunately for the McClellenville, Georgetown and Myrtle Beach, Gaston is pushing on shore at the same spot Charley did (Bulls bay).

Isle of Palms

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:09 AM

Re: Frances

Great advice, if you have ever been through one, the longer you wait, the harder it is to find supplies.

I don't see anything so far turning Frances into a fish spinner. We all have to be prepared, she is a monster. Here is a pretty picture of Frances. [

quote]time for everyone in Florida (Jax to the Keys - Pensacola to Ft. Meyers and everyone in between) to start getting serious about Frances. I remember significant damage in Tampa from Andrews who cut way south of us.

We are down to 5 days before landfall and it is time to start the plans in motion. Better to be over prepared than under prepared. Time to get the plywood, hire the contractors, get it up, get the sandbags ready, get supplies, and figure out where you are going.

Frances is for real.

Frances

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:03 PM

Re: Frances

Quote:

I don't see anything so far turning Frances into a fish spinner. We all have to be prepared, she is a monster. Here is a pretty picture of Frances.

The latest (0600) NRL map http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html shows a very decided turn in the thinking of the NHC. The forecast depicted here shows not hitting the Bahamas in the central islands on it's path to Miami, but possibly missing the Bahamas entirely (except possibly the northern most island). Extrapolation of the new path could bring it in north of Daytona and given the curve shown, extrapolation of that could mean missing Florida. What do you suppose they are seeing to cause this rather drastic forecast path change back to the north? Is the ridge being weakened by a combination of Gaston, a wannabe depression to it's east and an ULL sort of in-between the two? Or, as LI_Phil has stated, this is part of a stair-step and the track will shift back west soon? Your thoughts...any pro's out there that could comment would also be welcome. As we are now within a 5 day forecast period for the Bahamas, at least, maybe it is less speculation to ask now what gives?

Additionally, the UKMET http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif has moved north and the extension to it doesn't bode well for most of Florida, but the new NHC track is well north and east of even that.... Did we miss something while we slept last night?

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:08 PM

Re: Frances

What gives ? The discussions since last night say that forecast track has not changed. Where do they get this North Shift ?

I can't wait for recon to get into this system this evening and tell us what's going on.

LadyStorm

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:13 PM

Re: Frances

Very interesting senario. It could put it on a path similar to 1999 Floyd. I remember being evacuated, but I never left that year, just boarded up. Floyd was supposed to be a direct hit, but instead went to NC.

MaryAnn

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:26 PM

Re: Frances

I haven't posted this link here before but here is a free level 3 radar program with radar smoothing. Take a look at the Gaston . Very impressive as it comes on shore . I apologize if this has already been posted on this board

http://www.gibsonridgesoftware.com/grw88level3/

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:26 PM

Re: Frances

I don't think the models will get their act completely together until around September 2, for various reasons. The data they contain right now includes the effects of GASTON as of right now. with that storm out of the picture, the models are going to process every thing differently. Also of course, in the mean time, it will possibly be a 48 hour forecast for someone. The boy scout motto is still the best to abide by. Prepare as though you were expecting a direct hit on your 1969 house trailer that you forgot to tie down.

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:27 PM

Re: Frances

Quote:

What gives ? The discussions since last night say that forecast track has not changed. Where do they get this North Shift ?

I was hoping you could tell me

I am on the NHC e-mail list for storm bulletins and I didn't see anything mentioning this. I did a refresh on the NRL site a couple of times about 7am and about 7:30-7:45, another refresh gave me the URL depicting the changes in the track. So far, I've seen no discussion anywhere mentioning this. I checked the NHC models....same: They changed since the last I looked an hour or two ago. Something is afoot, but I'm not sure recon will help much as it is 'current status' info on the storm itself more than a predicition device in itself. Last night, there was a front approaching Birmingham Ala, moving E-SE....sould this be, coupled with the other Tropical stuff like Gaston, causing a weakness in the ridge that Frances is 'seeing' and reacting to? I hope so because it could mean fish food rather than disaster for much of Florida already reeling from Charley and could even spare the US EC who have also had their fill of tropical activity. There is still time for the ridge to 'fix' itself and push Frances back west across Florida, but there is now hope is imore Floyd-like with a chance to miss the US entirely. Let's pray for this scenereo because I don't want, nor wish, a Cat 1V-V storm on *anyone*!

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 12:27 PM

Re: Frances

Did you happen to read any of the posts on S2K last night? One of the mets who posts there said that NHC has a lot of internal guidance...apparently that (internal) guidance showed a consensus track towards the Carolinas. I have a MAJOR beef with the way Jarvinen handled the discussions if the internal models were indeed showing a curve towards the north during the 4-5 day range. He offered NO synoptic reasoning whatsoever to justify a more nw track at the end of the period. Therefore I'm really not buying the NHC track at this time.

To boot, the UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF all show a South Florida landfall. At some point, all of these models have shown some type of success in forecasting hurricane paths.

Time to refute NHC 4-5 day position even more...Frances is clearly moving westerly this morning. If this does indeed cross the 20N-60W Hebert Box, then the threat to Florida is probably greatly increased. Ironically enough, NHC's forecast track shows Frances narrowly missing this box. I'm thinking that this poses more of a threat to the Leewards than expected, but they should still escape the full effects.

Longer range, just how much Florida is threatened/possibly mauled will depend greatly on where the next amplification is. By late next week, we should definitely see a trough in the midwest region. How strong the high is along with Frances' location would determine exactly where landfall would occur. I can see the storm curving NW at some point, possibly cutting through a decent part of the state after making landfall. It could possibly reach the Gulf, but I don't see a threat to the northern Gulf at this time. I could be wrong though.

troy2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:45 PM

Re: Frances

Glad to see the site back up...

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:56 PM

Re: Frances

Quote:

Glad to see the site back up...

You can say that again

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 04:58 PM

Re: Frances

It should be an interesting week ahead. Models are somewhat divergent, especially with the GFDL taking the storm on a hard NW turn away from Florida. Others have it going through South or Central Florida. Does anyone know the reliability of the GFDL, will this be a trend???

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:09 PM

Re: Frances

The NHC has some internal guidance, but not an awful lot. Most of what they have (besides the BAM series, the A98E, the LBAR, etc) are either derived model-consensus models (such as the GUNA and GUNS consensus, both of which take four models - the GFS, UKMet, NOGAPS, and one other) or items like the FSU Superensemble, which is similar to a model consensus but differs in some ways. They also get the ECMWF output, which I don't recall is publicly available. But, they do reference most of what they use from time to time in discussions.

It is worth noting, however, that the FSU Superensemble has been hinting at a slight turn to the NW towards the end of the period lately and that the NHC official track has been following that model fairly well with this storm. The model consensuses like the GUNA/GUNS work such that the left-most and right-most tracks get averaged out into a track that appears to suggest a turn to the NW. It's not the ideal method to obtaining a track, using an average, but it tends to perform better than any of its member models.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:20 PM

overall tropics

Looks like Claudette did last year on satellite image and that we may have another post-analysis upgrade to a hurricane like with Claudette in the Caribbean last year, as well as Erika

Gaston

Frances appears to be feeling the affects of southerly shear, which may keep it from developing further for a few days; the eyewall is starting to look a bit ragged compared to hours ago
Frances

98L could be a TD later today, as convection has again fired up around the center
anyone else's thoughts on this one?

98L

note the LLC at the northern part of the convection
probably will be a TD at 5pm, likely (if ever a TS) no more than 40-50 mph

also, here are some forecasts:

AVN predicting that Frances will likely head towards the Keys in about 6 days, and that there will be a TS at about 30W at that time

GFDL is forecasting Frances to brush the northern Antilles in about 48 hours and be about 250 miles east of Cape Canaveral in about 5 days moving NNW

UKMET is forecasting Frances to hit the Keys in about 5 days and move up the west coast of Florida after that

RevRandy

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:31 PM

Re: Frances

Yes, glad the site is back up. Figured I would re-register as I was about three years ago. Been following the exceptional detail and dedication of you all for about five years.

Just rode out Gaston. A bit more intense than what folks expected. Right now, there are approximately 150,000 without power. Bridges are just beginning to open back up. Hopefully this will get people to be prepared for the upcoming week. I just remember the path of a certain storm in 1989.

Keith234

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:32 PM

Re: overall tropics

98L is most likely going to strenghten, just like Gaston only more because it is located further away from the coast, it has good outflow in just about all sectors of the storm. It could very well become the next tropical depression or storm by 5 P.M. Frances is facing some southerly shear as indicated by the tattered north side of the storm, as rabbit said in a pervious post. Gaston is providing much needed rain in South Carolina and parts of North Carolina, it should weaken greatly when it goes further inland. Wind gusts where up to 80 mph in some places, it was a pretty strong tropical storm.

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 PM

Re: Frances

i've been seeing that rightward motion nhc has added to the terminal track every other advisory. my interpretation is that there will be another stair-step in the track like the one frances just completed. models vary on the profile/orientation of the western extent of the ridge, and some run to run variability exists on whether there will be enough for the storm to drive headlong into florida or slant nw and hit somewhere in the carolinas. also seeing upper weakness/trough to the east, and potential northern gulf activity that eta has been showing for the last couple of days.
i'm not sticking a pin anywhere until the tue-wed timeframe, until the globals better resolve the western extent of the ridge. note that soi is solidly positive for the first time this month, and typhoon chaba made a late left break before curving up into japan.. this in my mind will teleconnect to a storm with a stair-step around the bahamas. also note that chaba is significantly weaker as it nears japan. don't think that quite the same dynamics will exist as in the westpac, but maybe frances will be a cat 3 instead of a 4.
gaston is onshore. that's one of the most well-defined tropical storms i've seen. apparently wsr-88d velocity data didn't show any hurricane strength winds at the surface, but i'm betting post-analysis will indicate a small area along the coast in bulls bay.. also the unofficial reports of 988/985mb pressures in the area may play into a future upgrade of gaston.
should have td 8 later today with 98L. convection sputtered overnight but is a solid, halfmoon-type cdo today. the system appears to be slowly strengthening and beginning a right turn. should pass around 50-80 miles east of hatteras monday and come close to nantucket on late tuesday. have a hunch this will be tropical storm hermine.
disorganized thunderstorm activity in the gulf has little in the way of vorticity working in the area, but a slight to moderate chance of low pressure forming in the area (several models indicate this).
wave coming off africa and the itcz turning near 30w are the front runners for the next named storm behind 98L. gfs developing a system in the area... unclear if they'll merge or act independent of one another. the trailer system appears to have a rudimentary mid-level circulation to it, and an impressive if not overwhelming convective signature, so quite likely that another tropical cyclone will be forming in the eastern atlantic as we approach labor day.
since the early recurvature option went out the window, frances has been more or less mirroring the nhc track. there are days to go, but the alarm is growing.
HF 1732z29august

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:33 PM

Re: overall tropics

frances should weaken some over the next couple days but not much, but recon might still find this a cat 4 when it gets in there. There is a mess in the path of Frances, I would on suspect that this will keep her in the cat 2-3 range till the shear lessens by mid week. Then could become a cat 4 again. Speculation cause landfall if any wont be till friday at the earliest. Will give update on the 3 and 5 day forcasts on monday.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:37 PM

08L.NONAME

TD8 now exists; expect a special advisory around 2pm

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:42 PM

Re: 08L.NONAME

I wonder if there's any merit in comparing the tracks of Charley, which closely followed that of Bonnie, to Gaston and Frances. I know there's a much greater distance between them, but sometimes patterns get estabished that more than one storm follows.

cat

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 05:48 PM

Re: Frances

Hi, this is my first time posting. I live in the midwest I have followed your site for a couple years. I usually just lurk, but I do have a question maybe someone could answer. My sister is in Englewood, FL and after Charley she mentioned a new (or newest?) model that had accutately predicted it's track, but had not been generally used or mentioned? Is there another model out there that is not normally used in the tracking maps that may be new? Thanks for your site and all the expertise.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:04 PM

Re: Frances

cat -- well, it's not my site, so credit should go to the pods and admins of the site for the job they do!

The NHC has some model data that is proprietary and there were models calling for Charley to make landfall where it did, but that was 3 days prior to the storm making landfall. They oscillated back and forth until near the time it actually did make landfall, as the potential error for just a slight jog to the east or west was huge. Some other places (I think Accuweather being one) have their own proprietary models, but the validity of those is questionable at best until you can actually see for yourself what they are doing.

Unfortunately, by nature, those models are proprietary. The ones that the NHC has, they pay good money to get and don't want the information freely available. That's why you won't see FSU Superensemble forecasts anywhere but a brief mention from the NHC -- FSU gets good money from the govt. to keep it under wraps. Similarly in the commercial sector, Accuweather makes good money off of their products to hundreds of local broadcast stations across the nation. Thus, in either example, it's unlikely you'll see those products freely available for some time to come, making official verification difficult.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:06 PM

Re: 08L.NONAME

Well, it does...but also doesn't. NHC put out a special tropical disturbance statement saying that the system is getting better organized and if the trend continues, advisories will be initiated later today. Unless something drastic happens between now and 5p, it probably is TD 8.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:17 PM

Re: 08L.NONAME

if there a chance it will not be upgraded, why are they calling it 08 noname?

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:18 PM

Re: 08L.NONAME

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT
360 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL
BE INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.

FORECASTER PASCH

cat

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 06:32 PM

Re: Frances

Many thanks Clark. I appreciate the info. I also meant for my appreciation of the site to cover all who make it possible. Again, my thanks to the pods and the admins and to all who participate. My daughter-in-law suggested I could go back to school in the pursuit of some of my hobbies, but as I told her I am learning all the time right from my computer. Never to old to learn,,,,,,,,, love it.

James88

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:14 PM

Re: 08L.NONAME

So this system could very well become the 7th named storm to form this August. That would put us level with 1995.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:15 PM

Re: Frances

URNT11 KNHC 291840
97779 18404 10175 58700 56100 01016 56//2 /4588
RMK AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 04

what kind of winds does everyone think they will find?

rickonboat

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:19 PM

GOM

appears to be a slight increase in convection in the western central GOM. Wonder what the models think.

Am I seeing a wobble, or is Frances starting a shift due westward?....

Suprised she has diminished, but I still lay credence to the Miami hit, and then slip into the GOM>

In two more days, we might have two more named systems. One off of North Carolina, and the other in the GOM....

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:25 PM

Re: Frances

Last 90 minutes of IR loops... practically due west... right now I would say "Lady" Frances is tracking on the bottom/southern end of the projected forecast track.... how this affects things down the road remains to be seen.... but I would be not surprised to see the track shift slighty back to the LEFT.. regardless, models will change as they are updated with new information .... expect some swings to the left and right over time....

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:28 PM

Re: Frances

Question for ya'll

Would td#8 pump the ridge and cause Frances to go more west ?

jlauderdal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:28 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Gaston Strengthens while Frances Moves Westward

Quote:

7:45PM Update
Hurricane Warnings are now up for the South Carolina coast as Recon has now found 65MPH winds in Tropical Storm Gaston, and is expected now to strengthen into a hurricane before landfall sometime late Sunday.

Original Update
Two Storms, TD#7 has strengthened into Gaston, still meandering off the South Carolina coast, and recon found stronger than anticipated winds, so Hurricane Watches have been put up for the South Carolina coastiline.

Hurricane Frances is now a Category 4 Hurricane still moving westward, the national Hurricane Center's forecast track puts it into the Bahamas mid week, so folks along the southeastern Coastline and Bahamas will need to pay attention to the system.

More to come later.

Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
Gaston Models
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
All model "Spaghetti" for Gaston from hurricanealley

General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

im pleased to annouce the jlauderdal webcam will be back in business IF fll is forecast to get hurricane force winds.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:37 PM

glad sight is back up

I use it for so many things I'm dead in the water without it. Even when I don't post or read I use it a lot.

A lot going on in the Atlantic..situation is so fluid.
Think Frances will stair step a lot and more worried about when the high does build in strong as forecasted than what it does at 2 and 6.

Interesting set up. Nice to see everyone.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:47 PM

Re: glad sight is back up

Lois since you are quite in the know, what are your thoughts as to where this will landfall?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:50 PM

Re: Frances

YOu

mean shift left I take it??

sc

rickonboat

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:55 PM

moving west now..

Frances is moving west, or I am blind. A good 3-4 hours of this, and the models will have to re-adjust. If it holds for 24 hours or so, we can definitely expect a U.S. landfall.

25 years ago, we got hammered by hurricane Frederic here in Mobile....

Anyone else see this definite heading of due west????

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:57 PM

Re: Frances

Yes, my bad.... that's for the correction... I updated the post.... Heck, last night I referred to Frances as "Sir".... and she a "Lady" .... sleep deprivation can cause delineriouness and retardation.... I'm a good example of that...

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 07:58 PM

Re: glad sight is back up

I'm glad this site is back up as well, Lois. Here's a fairly interesting statement from NWS discussion this afternoon (Melbourne office):
THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED FRANCES HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER FRANCES W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN FRANCES TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND GFS DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

Does the NHC coordinate tracks beyond 120 hours with the NWS?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:00 PM

Re: moving west now..

I think over the past several hours it has averaged out to just north of due west... best guess around 280 degrees... but I have not checked in the past 20 minutes for an update... .will take another looksee... regardless, I think it is tracking south of the NHC projection model, for the time being

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:01 PM

Re: glad sight is back up

How does this compare to Isabel from last year? What is keeping Frances from doing the same track? Lois this is for you.

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:35 PM

Re: moving west now..

They were almost right on with their 11 AM pressure estimate. Winds not up there, though, max flight wind 97 kt, but in the 11 AM discussion they did say that 115 kt was probably a little high, but they left it there.

URNT12 KNHC 291936
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/1935Z
B. 18 DEG 47 MIN N
55 DEG 14 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2685 M
D. 55 KT
E. 230 DEG 075 NM
F. 301 DEG 97 KT
G. 207 DEG 009 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 10 C/ 3023 M
J. 20 C/ 3076 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/7
O. 0.2/2 NM
P. AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 06
MAX FL WIND 97 KT SW QUAD 1933Z.

Bill

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:37 PM

Re: moving west now..

I agree with you on the recent track and I think she is becoming stronger now also.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:50 PM

Re: moving west now..

It's still a 115kt hurricane. Note that they went into the SW side of the storm first, the weakest of all four quadrants of the system. They'll find higher flight-level winds with subsequent vortex messages, and the NHC concurs (thus the 5pm 115kt intensity).

We've got Hermine now too, making it the 8th storm of the season. Advisory isn't out yet, but the 5pm Gaston discussion references it picking up Hermine in the 48hr time frame. (Edit: now the advisory is out, 1008mb/35kt. Calls for strengthening to a 45kt storm before becoming absorbed by Gaston at T+48hr.)

Tropical storm watches have been issued for some of the northern islands in advance of Frances as well.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:52 PM

Re:SITE

Sorry for the site going down, We are trying hard to figure out what is going on besides all the hits.

Please be patient the site may/will go down periodically so keep trying.

John C

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 08:54 PM

Re:SITE

I thought it was my net connection that was flaking. I will keep checking this site as it seems to have a lot of up to date info.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:00 PM

We have HERMINE

The 8 of the Season

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:01 PM

We have TS Hermine

...And yet another tropical storm in August...
Satellite images indicate that Tropical Storm Hermine...the eighth
of the 2004 Atlantic hurricane season...has formed in the North
Atlantic. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm
Hermine was located near latitude 32.4 north...longitude 71.0 west
or about 325 miles...520 km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North
Carolina.

Hermine is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph ...17 km/hr. A
gradual turn to the north is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
... 95 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position...32.4 N... 71.0 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:11 PM

Re: moving west now..

I should have qualified that with a "so far". They reported 112 kt winds in the supplementary vortex message.

Bill

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:13 PM

Frances 5 pm Discussion

Per NHC.....

Latest model runs are gradually shifting the track a
little more the north at the end of the forecast period. That
includes both the GFS and the UK models which previously brough the
hurricane to near the Florida Keys or South Florida. These models
are still bringing the hurricane very close to Florida but at a
higher latitude. The official forecast remains unchanged and is
very close to the global model consensus. The next global model
runs will take advantage of data gather from the GPS dropsondes to
be launch from the NOAA high altitude jet. We will carefully
monitor the impact on these new observations in tonight's runs.........

Interesting to see how and if the models might change with the new data.....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:41 PM

Re: Glad sight is back up

I think that Frances is just taking a little jog to the west, probably will resume wnw motion soon. I think that this system will probably go through a stair step motion because of little indentations in the ridge. I don't think we would know where its going to go for sure until Wednesday.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:46 PM

Re: Frances

Something is going on with frances right now. I think another eyewll replacement looks to be taking shape. I am going to take a look at some recon data and see if that helps... something is up... think winds might go down overnight and refire in early morning....i thought it might be beacuse of the movement to the west durning mid-day threw the center off and allowed dry air to enter..... waiting to what hrd finds from data drops...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:49 PM

Re: Frances

I was just about to say that, does seem like a eye replacment cycle is happening. Doesn't this mean it might intensify even further? :?:

rickonboat

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 29 2004 09:53 PM

Re: Frances

I see an eyewall replacement cycle as well. The storm is getting larger in overall size. All of these hurricanes breathe and flux at this stage.

Still don't know what to make of the fact I see Frances just about due west...and yet long range forecasts haven't changed much. let's see...9 mph at 24 hours is another 230 miles west...extrapolating that...sure looks like a south florida hit to me...

Miami.....as a cat 4 or 5...then on to Mobile...

or....it will sweep the keys...and hit New Orleans.

Sure hope you Floridians get spared this one. I see a strike on the U.S. however...

How do our moderators see this?....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:00 PM

Re: Frances

How do you see this hitting south florida when the trends seem to pull it north? I think our area will be impacted instead. east central florida by melbourne and orlando. we are still not finished cleaning up after charley.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:05 PM

Re: Frances

It looks to me that Frances in the last few frames is going more of a wnw track or so. Is the sun playing tricks on me, or is that whats happening?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 PM

Re: Frances

I agree with you redbird, I think it will be in our area too. God forbid it, but it looks like thats what it might do.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:08 PM

Re: Frances

Hurricanes are still unpredicatable and at the end of all the model runs and forecasts, these storms usually have a surprise or two in store for us.

I will be looking at the High pressure ridge to the North of Francis as the main player in where she will go.
This has been a strange season so far. I'm with all of you, just watching and trying to figure out how it will impact me.

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:12 PM

Being sarcastic here. J/K around

Come on floridians remeber the east coast of florida does not get hit by major huricanes except once every 30-40 years its only been 12 since andrew thats another 18-28 years before we get hit by another major hurricane.

Well I dont no what frances will do becuse my expirience tells me no florida hit, and maybe carolina's.
but were also supposed to be in a diferrent 20 year pattern so its back to school for me. I like to think this storm does an isabel becuse its very similar but this storm is 12 degrees west of isabel in every aspect that it mimics. I am Relieved that the High alltidude jet is out there getting some real data for the models so tommorow i will start to weigh the models a bit more seariously.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:13 PM

Re: Frances

It is real scary to know that next weekend, everything I own and even possibly my family could be fatally injured.................

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:14 PM

Re: Being sarcastic here. J/K around

Do you think south florida is in the clear with the new forecast models?

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:16 PM

Frances

My take on Frances:

1- Looks like a close call with Hebert's box. Remember, almost every major hurricane to go through that box ends up hitting S. FL. as a major.
2- Last eye of a major hurricane here in Palm Beach County was in 1949, 55 years ago. This region should get a major hurricane every 10 yrs, that is 5 1/2 times over due.
3- Stores already doing a brisk business around here. One local Home Depot that had 300 generators this morning, now has only 75 left. I spent the day shopping myself.
4-Another huge problem that no one is mentioning about this storm is the possible flooding potential with such a slow mover. Remember, this storm is moving much slower than Andrew or Charley.
5- My home weather station is up and running. I will provide a link if Frances heads my way. The anemometer is rated to 175 mph, but not my roof. Hope I don't have to find that out.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:19 PM

Re: Frances

What is Hebert's box?

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:27 PM

Re: Frances

Redbird, you sound new to this message board and I noticed you are not registered. Welcome. Now, it has been my experience in the last 3 or 4 years that every one who is posting to this board is interested in where the hurricanes will go. But, you have to realize that except for a few experts sprinkeled in here, a lot of this talk is speculation and we do not know anything for sure except the official forecast by NHC, Just get your self prepared and don't allow yourself to get emotionally upset over every twist and turn that the models forecast. The Floyd cane had all of Florida, the experts and even Disney World convinced that it was coming to a place in Central Florida. But, it stayed off shore. We will truly know much more by Wednesday as the forecasts get more accurate and less guesswork is going on.

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:27 PM

Re: Frances

Check this out on Hebert's boxes.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:29 PM

Re: Frances

Palm Beach area is kinda my gut feeling right now. I don't think I buy into the S. Fl scenario.
I told my rommies to get ready, but there not buying it.

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 10:36 PM

Re: Frances

It is just too early to be making any predictions about landfall (or to worry about it either). Maybe by Wednesday we'll have a better idea.

Looks to me to have wobbled a little south of west in this last frame, but over the last couple of hours is heading west for sure.

Bill

Hurric

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:11 PM

Re: Frances

For those in the east central Florida area, Melbourne NWS discussion this afternoon has an interesting long range portion.
THU-SUN...FORECAST IS VERY HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF
VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES. LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TO
BRING FRANCES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS THEN ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN FL
LABOR DAY WEEKEND. BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THIS EXACT
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THE AVG TRACK ERROR FOR DAY 5 IS 325 NAUTICAL
MILES. NONETHELESS...AS EXPECTED FRANCES HAS BENT MORE TO THE WEST
TODAY DUE TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF IT. THIS RIDGING IS
EXPECTED TO STEER FRANCES W/NW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THEN
POSSIBLY WEAKEN WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE N/NW MOTION. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THE UPPER RIDGING ERODES...IT COULD TURN FRANCES TO OUR
EAST OR BRING IT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BREVARD COUNTY AS THE 12Z
UKMET AND GFS DO. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW OFFICAL FORECAST WHICH
BRINGS FRANCES ONSHORE NEAR JUPITER INLET. PERSONS IN EAST CENTRAL
FL SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

Hurric

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:12 PM

Re: Frances

One model does seem to show a sebastian inlet landfall and pass right through Brevard and into Orlando.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:16 PM

Re: Frances

I must admit normally I am not an edgy person, but this one has me a little concerned, considering I have a lot of my roof missing.. LOL. So if people seem a little jittery in Central Florida, cut them a little slack. Most havent even had roofers provide them with an estimate nor have they had their adjusters even show up..

Having experienced Andrew (lived on Old Cutler and 136) and now Charley, I must say I am hoping for the infamous "Disney Hurricane Reflector Shield or the Kennedy Space Center Hurricane Protection System" that everyone talks about.. LOL..

Lake Toho - Kissimmee

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:17 PM

Re: Frances

BY THE WAY THERE IS A NEW TOPIC POSTED

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:24 PM

Re: Frances

Yes, and a dozen other models show everything from turning left over Cuba, to Key West to recurving and never hitting land. Having been through several major hurricanes (including Andrew and Donna) I know how it feels. It is not easy to not worry about anything stronger than a thunderstorm. But it is too early to even guess where this storm is going to go.

The data gathered from the high altitude dropsondes will help the models out. By later tomorrow we should have a more accurate picture, but it won't be until the middle of the week that the NHC can make a reasonable prediction on landfall.

And having been through the Floyd situation, we (including the NHC) were sure we were going to get hit, it was heading right for us, and it made a right hand turn just before landfall. Anything is possible with these storms. The bottom line is be prepared, and hope for the best.

Bill

Jeanine

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:33 PM

Re: Frances

Thanks for posting the link on Herbert's box. I've been here for over 7 years and do not ever remember hearing that term. Mostly lurking.
Jeanine

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:35 PM

Re: Frances

Yeah, thanks! I needed a brain refresher on the Hebert boxes too.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:37 PM

Re: Frances

Okay probably right on this one. I am not sure what Floyd did........was not down here then. Thnx for your patience on this.

ShaggyDude

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:42 PM

Re: Frances

Ditto on the Herbert Boxes, Thanks

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:49 PM

Re: Frances

How worried are you Shaggy? btw.......neat nick you have.

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:51 PM

Re:SITE

Quote:

I thought it was my net connection that was flaking. I will keep checking this site as it seems to have a lot of up to date info.

I hope it doesn't go back down also. While they were down, I found http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=536 which has really good data available and seems current. I think HCW and ROLLTIDE are from there and while the forums are way too quiet, it is still a great place to visit for information. I don't see it is competition, but as kind of a backup place to go. This morning, I was posting about the northward (sudden) shift by the NHCof it's forecast track. It looks like they've backed off some and now are saying 'Jupiter Inlet'. If the storm does come in there, Orlando will see it's second strong/major storm in just a couple or three week time. Not a good scenereo shaping up. HankFrank, do you feel there is any real reason to believe the current NHC forecast track won't be close to what actually happesn? I know about models and how they change, but we are now at the 5 day point or nearly so, and the lines should stop changing so much as it gets close...'course Charley proved the lines can change right up till it hits

....

(User)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:54 PM

Re: Frances

Quote:

My take on Frances:

1- Looks like a close call with Hebert's box. Remember, almost every major hurricane to go through that box ends up hitting S. FL. as a major.
.

Herbert's box? that is a new one to me. Could you define it for us (again)....as I get older, I get more senile I guess but I just can't place the term.

Yes, I did read the posted URL, but I'm not sure of the lat/long of this thing and has every storm going through this been a hit? Dumb, but I don't know the answer

RIchard

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:54 PM

Re: Frances

I have enjoyed reading all the posts concerning Frances. I live in Jacksonville, FL and am starting to get concerned about the weather events that could happen end of week. How do you all feel about Jacksonville being spared? I have read that alot of you think it will go south in to the gulf, but models and discussions say the south and the keys will be spared. Here in north FL some of the models still indicate a hit!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:56 PM

Re:SITE

My sympathies to anyone who was in Orlando during Charley.........it was scary enough in Titusville and all we had was a tickle in comparison. Where in your mind would it exit out if it passed thru Orlando? Tampa?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 29 2004 11:59 PM

Re:Plan of the Day

Does anyone know what the "SMRF" stands for in the plan of the day?
3. REMARKS: THE NOAA P-3 MISSION (FLIGHT ONE) REQUIRES AN
OPERATIONAL SMRF.