MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 10:27 PM |
Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Very busy in the Tropics today. Gaston never quite made it to Hurricane status, and landfalled as a tropical storm earlier in the day. It's moving slowing and dropping tons of rain.
IWe got more too, there was a low area SE of Cape Hatteras that formed relatively quicking into Tropical Storm Hermine. This storm is likely going to remain out at see, but it complicated things for...
Hurricane Frances is holding as a strong category 4 storm, and is continuing on the track westward. Model trends will be important but it's safe to bet anyone in Florida up through the Carolinas will want to watch this one as it potentially will cause some concern over the labor day holiday weekend.
More to come later in the week...
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
Gaston Models
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
All model "Spaghetti" for Gaston from hurricanealley
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:24 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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May just be me...but is there a southwest jog going on? if so there goes model runs.... that could mean that she may pass close to the islands like the "AVN" showed..... watch out in PR and islands.... looks like Frances may pay a close visit....
I starting to see signs that the HIGH to the north is going to be real strong after gaston/hermine get through.....
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:27 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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I think with her phases it is mostly a wobble but as others have pointed out, pretty much a west track for now.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
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| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Gary Gray's Model Discussion is up and he is predicting (albeit going out on a limb) a South Florida/Florida Landfall at least at this time..
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:31 PM |
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Recon
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URNT12 KNHC 292302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/2302Z
B. 18 DEG 46 MIN N
55 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2700 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 120 DEG 105 KT
G. 030 DEG 15 NM
H. 954 MB
I. 11 C/ 3080 M
J. 18 C/ 3080 M
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C18
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/0.5 NM
P. AF861 0106A FRANCES OB 22
MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 2113Z
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:32 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Toho..........how do I get a look at this model?
| BillD |
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| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:35 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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No, not just you. I mentioned near the end of the last thread, then it was just one frame, now it is several. Seems as if the GFS might have a good handle on this puppy. Which doesn't make me too happy sitting here in Miami...
Latest recon vortex message has the pressure up slightly to 954, and the winds up to 118, and the eye expanding. Typical fluctuations at this point. Also shows a slight south of west movement.
Bill
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:36 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Follow this link http://flhurricane.com/spotlight.php?1 and scroll to the bottom of the page and look for Trantech Model Discuss by Gary Gray..
| Unregistered User |
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| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:38 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Thanks will check that...............you are staying with friends or relatives right? I shudder knowing it shoulda been us up here.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 29 2004 11:48 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Whew, that's a pretty noticeably southerly wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Lotta -ys, huh?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:03 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Looks like it wobbled itself back ...
| rmbjoe1954 |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:10 AM |
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Frances' Wobbles
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I believe the wobbling is 'covered' by its sheer power but continues its W-NW path on its current western track, (Staircase Approach)
I will pay attention Wed PM when the 72 hour window is upon us and assessment is based on the projected track.
| ShaggyDude |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:19 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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Well, it's been reduced to High Cat 3, as per Adv 20A
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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winds from recon sust. near 125mph w/then 954mb
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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Quote:That is a step in the right direction if it is going to make a landfall on the EC Florida (or any landfall for that matter), but not enough. Let's hope it has peaked and is on the back side of it's power curve. Note I said 'hope', not that I believe it is....
Well, it's been reduced to High Cat 3, as per Adv 20A
| BillD |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:31 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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That's why we call them wobbles... track overall is almost due west.
There is no real reason for this storm not to maintain high cat3 or even cat4 status. There is minimal shear and lots of warm water ahead of it. However some models do predict a reduction in strength before landfall, it isn't clear what would cause that. Gary Gray discusses this in his recent forecast, an interesting read.
Bill
| BabyCat |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:34 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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If I recall correctly, NHC forecasted some variance in the intensity to take place. I still think it is too soon to tell.
| HanKFranK |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:35 AM |
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triad on the 29th
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three active systems of tropical storm strength today.. first time that's happened since september 26, 2002.
going to condense gaston and hermine.. gaston dropped to depression status at 8pm edt, should track far enough inland so that it doesn't reintensify. if the circulation begins to elongate hermine's small circulation to the east may not be absorbed as soon as forecast. the northeasterly shear impacting the system should end before it leaves support ssts around 37N.. possible it may deepen enough to be a discrete system approaching southeastern new england on tuesday.
recon fixes and data indicate frances is weaker.. eye has been growing less symmetric and become a bit cloud filled today.. probably a combination eyewall contraction and mild vertical shear. forward speed has slowed and the system has wobbled, as the eye structure is periodically unstable and the solidifying subtropical ridge is engaging the system.
my take is that it oscillates between cat 3-4 for the next day or so, but as the system accelerates back to 10-12kt forward speed it should stabilize and deepen to solid 4 status.. perhaps 5.
modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point. model handling should improve drastically over the next two days and by tuesday afternoon i'll be ready to specify a strike point with some skill.
anywho..
disturbed weather in the northern gulf merits a glance but in no rush to organize. very low probability.
wave exiting africa should be an invest inside 36 hours.. that's my perp for the next system.
to get an idea of which models to trust, pay attention most to the ones who change the least over the next run.. with the new recon data.
HF 0035z30august
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: Frances' Wobbles
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Quote:While it is wobbling, it has also grown much bigger: From the NHC:
That's why we call them wobbles... track overall is almost due west.
There is no real reason for this storm not to maintain high cat3 or even cat4 status. There is minimal shear and lots of warm water ahead of it. However some models do predict a reduction in strength before landfall, it isn't clear what would cause that. Gary Gray discusses this in his recent forecast, an interesting read.
Bill
[QUOTE]Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles... 140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 125 miles...204 km.[/QUOTE]
Shoot, there are places where the entire state of Florida isn't much wider than that. This storm remains powerful and now is also LARGE.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:55 AM |
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Re: triad on the 29th
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Quote:HF, you as well as anyone here on the forum knows that with a storm that has hurricane force winds extending 85 mi (at this time) from center, even a brush along the coast will expose a tremendously large area to hurricane force winds and virtually all but the extreme NW corner of the state to TS winds. We all need to remind ourselves that a hurricane track isn't a line, it is a swath. While the effects diminish with distance, people 10 or more miles inland (with a 20 mi eye) will experience eyewall conditions and that is if the eye doesn't actually go inland beyond the half-way point. CIties as far inland as St Cloud, East Orlando, Jaxonville and points north would likely experience CAT III or high Cat II winds. One way or another, it appears likely that Florida will suffer the effects almost state wide of a 2nd major storm. Are you aware of any other historical data where this has happened in the past? 1871 near Cocoa, I think had 2 storms in as many weeks, but I don't think they were majors.???
modeling has shifted slightly northward.. there should be a small weakness in the ridge around day 4-5, which should rebuild for day 6 or so.. if modeling is reading the situation correctly. this far out it isn't certifiable, but given the pattern, pulses in ridge strength as weak shortwaves pass by to the north lending to a stair-step track tend to be the rule. added the chaba teleconnection and an approach at a moderate angle on the east coast of florida, perhaps curving westward and hitting the coast at a lower angle late september 4th to midday september 5th somewhere between
palm beach fl and cape romain sc is as specific as i'm willing to get at this point.
| alan |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:00 AM |
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Re: triad on the 29th
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Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the NHC's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:12 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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I checked my DeLorme Atlas and FL i s around 376nm from Key West to the GA line. 85nm on either side of the eye would cover most of the state with a Melbourne area hit.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:15 AM |
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Re: triad on the 29th
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Quote:Yup, and that is precicely why I and a lot of others here in Central Florida are getting antsy...the NHC *has* been doing a credible job so far this year, including Charley. My only criticism even with that storm was the 'envelope of error' wasn't stressed enough. That envelope basically did allow the eye to go near Orlando, but the delays in getting the word out to the public about the *actual* path meant that a lot of people went TOWARDs harms way and none of the trailer parks were notified of even voluntary evacuations with a still Cat II storm coming overhead within a couple of hours. If any were warned, I haven't heard about it. I pray we will get more warning this time, if such a thing is possible. Me and the cat will make our decision at least 24 hours in advance if there is any reasonable chance our area will experience hurricane force (or worse) winds.
Wherever this hits, I think it is going to be a close call to Florida, very similar to what happened with Floyd.
For those of us who lived in Orlando during that time, many of us expected Floyd to come close to Orlando. It all depended on when the storm turned. Thankfully, it turned a couple hundred miles off shore. This could do the same thing, or it could come in closer. I feel we won't know until the last minute.
One thing, I have been impressed with the modeling and the NHC's forecasts this year. They've nailed just about every storm we've had this year, even being in the general area five days out. After all, every storm has done just about what the storm centers have done.
At least, if the storm does pass to our East, the wind will be form the opposite direction, and all of the debris from the destroyed trailers in my park will be blown back to where it came from.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:16 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Hey Daniel, I live In Palm Bay, which is the neighboring city to Melbourne to the South. Melbourne is approx. 180 miles to the south of Jacksonville and 180 miles to the North of Miami. So you are right about the swath of the storm and its effects.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:25 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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A little more pondering. An 85nm circle centered on Downtown Melbourne, covers North to the northern end of Kennedy Space Ctr and South to Hollywood.
I don't know if the eye diameter should be figured into that but it gives you an idea of the swath of Hurricane Force winds at this point in time. Pretty large.
** This is purely hypothetical and does not reflect Any of NHC's postions!
| Keith234 |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:33 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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How strong of winds can the Kennedy space center withstand? I think by the blueprint maybe allow it to withstand a strong CAT 3 nothing more, it's very aerodynamic, they really accounted for the pressure gradient that exists in hurricane force winds. I would hate to see such a modern marvel become a pile of rubble.
| ShaggyDude |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:34 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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If it hit melbourne at 85 nm, it would at least go up to Daytona, well past the Space Center...
Of course, all speculation.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:34 AM |
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Models use of history
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Unfortunately, I happen to strongly agree with Dr. Gray's analysis with respect to the initial guesstimation of Frances' strike on South Florida. As he stated in his discussion, many of the models rely on historical patterns of storms previously taking a similar track. You may recall both Floyd, David, Hugo, and several others veered north just miles off the Bahamian Islands. Unfortunately, those trofs will not come to fruision on this occassion, and therefore, I cannot rely greatly on their anticipitation of a northwestern movement outside 5 days. The "true" history is causing the models to act with a rather false return. Any thoughts on agreements or disagreement? Interested for feedback -- want to shutter up early and not wait til the last minute -- MIAMI
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:38 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Gee are we now saying Melbourne is where we think it most likely to make landfall?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:40 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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The forecast isnt from Dr Grey its from Gary Gray. Gary is a meteorologist, but not THE Dr who forecasts the number of hurricanes every year.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:42 AM |
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Frances
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This was emailed to me from a friend around 6 pm.
Looking at the latest satellite images It looks like Hurricane Frances is beginning to undergo a bit of SW shearing. Also some eyewall restructuring still seems to be occurring, so she remains a CAT 4 cyclone with maybe some slight weakening. SW shear should increase as Frances reaches 60 deg. west longitude through approximately 70 deg. west longitude and this may inhibit strengthening to a CAT 5 in the middle term.
The powerful high pressure ridge to it's north continues to strengthen and build west, the cause of Frances' westerly turn earlier today. Earlier I took the liberty of looking at more modeling and what I see is troublesome. I'm seeing a trend of more models coming into agreement with a continued lower latitude westward track for Frances. If this verifies then any low pressure weakness that "may" be left behind by Hurricane Gaston (yes it was a hurricane when it came ashore in S.C.) and future T.S. Hermine could not pull Frances NW-N east of Florida and/or the T & K and Bahama Islands.
But what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it were to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone. A third option, one of bad news that just makes me shudder! A nightmarish CAT 4 strike to deep South Florida and a WNW-NW movement across the peninsula exiting into the Gulf Of Mexico north of Charlotte Harbor.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is low, as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella,
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Quote:I know the NHC said:
Hey Daniel, I live In Palm Bay, which is the neighboring city to Melbourne to the South. Melbourne is approx. 180 miles to the south of Jacksonville and 180 miles to the North of Miami. So you are right about the swath of the storm and its effects.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...204 KM.
but I'm wondering, 85 miles from the center? That is more than half of the storm if the TS force winds are only 125 mi. I betcha there is a typo in that advisory and it is 85 across or about 40 from the center. I seem to have seen a very recent statement that said "35" mise from center. Either way, it is a big storm and most of Florida would feel TS or better winds and inland cities would get hurricane force winds as far away as Orlando, certainly Jax, Kissimmee and many communities like Daytona would see potentially majory storm force winds.
On the FLoyd scenereo, dont forget it went iinland in NC and caused a lot of big-time damage....let's hope Frances goes even further East than Floyd did...
| Keith234 |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:45 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Gary Gray pointed out. Frances has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:55 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Quote:Looking at http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
I think it will also stay south because of another reason that Dr. Gray pointed out. Frances has very good outflow and if it does come close enough to the ridge it will actually build it, in turn causing it to head more westward and strike Florida. I wouldn't get worried yet, but I would start preparing. This slow mover will make people very worried. Models are based on past storms but are also dynamical, some rely more on previous storms then others thats why their forecasts are sometimes very divergent.
they aren't all that divergant anymore. There seems to be a consencus of model opinion that SE Florida is in for a rough time. As it is still headed due West, it seems more likely the UKMET and NHC and GFS and others are really close even out past 5 days.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re: Frances
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Going over the forecast positions from advisories 19 and 20. I noticed from 03/1200Z to 03/1800Z NHC has the storm being stationary at 25.5N/ 76.5W. Any thoughts on this?
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2004
HURRICANE FRANCES ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 54.5W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.08.2004 18.7N 54.5W MODERATE
00UTC 30.08.2004 19.6N 56.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2004 20.3N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2004 21.0N 61.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2004 21.9N 64.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.09.2004 22.7N 68.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2004 23.2N 70.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2004 23.8N 73.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.09.2004 24.6N 75.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2004 25.6N 77.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2004 26.5N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2004 27.9N 80.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2004 29.5N 81.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
Found this on the UK Met site. Not sure if it's been posted already though. If it has, accept my apologies.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Quote:
How strong of winds can the Kennedy space center withstand? I think by the blueprint maybe allow it to withstand a strong CAT 3 nothing more, it's very aerodynamic, they really accounted for the pressure gradient that exists in hurricane force winds. I would hate to see such a modern marvel become a pile of rubble.
I found this for ya...
The table below indicates to what wind speed in miles per hour KSC facilities were originally designed.
O&C LCC VAB Pads OPF MILA RPSF PHSF SSPF NSLD
Sustained 114 114 114 114 105 104 105 110 110 110
Gust 125 125 125 125 105 125 126 132 132 132
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:10 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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I certainly don't like that model. It has Frances at 26.5, 79.1 on Friday morning. I live at 26.5, 80.1. That is 60 miles due east of me.
| Floridacane |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:14 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:21 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Interesting about the buildings at KSC, I remember an article in the local paper saying most of the buildings were not that strong. I took a tour a few years ago and saw the VAB and thought they said that was the strongest and could take 140 but your numbers are very different. Most of those buildings were built many years ago. My house was built 2 years ago and is to withstand 130 mph...I added panels that are rated at cat 5 for all windows/doors/garage so I figure that should add some.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:22 AM |
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Feedback
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My personal feedback would be that we are talking about Labor Day weekend here where millions will be on the road already. I have already looked for motel rooms in Valdosta and found they are filling fast. Same with Brunswick, Ga.
If the 'cain continues on it's NHC track, there will be a mass exodus from, not only S. Florida, but many inland communities as well as west coast communities. This one could really create a lodging nightmare. People need to make their plans now.. don't wait.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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My turn to eat crow. I posted the hypothetical 85nm circle earlier. I said that it was theoretically centered on Melbourne.
I should have said that I centered the circle on Ft Pierce. Since that's where I placed it.
redbird -This was just a circle placed randomly on a map of the FL east coast. No forecast has a landfall prediction at this time. We were looking at how much of the state of FL would be covered by hurricane force winds at an 85nm diameter area of hurricane force winds.
Sorry about the confusion.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:31 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Quote:Yes, and apparantly following the coast line or even inland. Orlando is 28.51 -81.38 (Executive Airport just E of town) so the storm will be maybe just NE of Orlando a little bit on the 4th according to the UKMET data. It is well within the current 85 mile hurricane force wind field mentioned on the 8pm public advisory. No one is going have a nice holiday in most of Florida if this track becomes fact. While a bit far into the future to be so exact on the path, it is starting to become more of a trend for that and other models to indicate this area, including the latest GFS which shows a coast walk now as well. if I read it right.
Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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The 18z AVN, pretty self depictatory speculation
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avnt...;hour=Animation
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:37 AM |
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Re: FL Swath
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Quote:The latest E-Mail from NHC says:
My turn to eat crow. I posted the hypothetical 85nm circle earlier. I said that it was theoretically centered on Melbourne.
I should have said that I centered the circle on Ft Pierce. Since that's where I placed it.
redbird -This was just a circle placed randomly on a map of the FL east coast. No forecast has a landfall prediction at this time. We were looking at how much of the state of FL would be covered by hurricane force winds at an 85nm diameter area of hurricane force winds.
Sorry about the confusion.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
This suppots a 70 mile diameter circle around Melbourne for hurricane force winds and given the UKMET forecast, Melbourne could very well be the center of such a circle. Let's hope not, but your crow may not yet be willing to be eaten. He is still flapping his wings
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: Feedback
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I live in st. pete beach last time most people went over to Orlando and got nailed, we just went to Plant City and were lucky just a little rain, sometimes running to far can get you in Harms way without knowing it. Think if you find high ground 25 ft with a new constructed hotel you will be just as safe, we all hope.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:38 AM |
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Re: Feedback
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Been watching all the activity out there. Impressive to say the least. I'm just starting to get that uneasy feeling since I'm on the east coast of Florida, just north of Daytona. I saw what Charley did here, and it wasn't all that strong when it passed over us. Anyways, Frances looks to be taking aim at Florida's general direction for late next week. A friend of mine had this link which shows tracks for all the Cat 3/4/5 hurricanes passing within 600mi of Frances. Interesting read:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_climo.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:38 AM |
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West Gulf!
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I know everyone is wrapped up with our major hurricane out there but I was just on the Accuweather site and read something about them watching the western gulf for something. Does anyone know if Joe B. discussed this in his column? By the way, my computer has been down for most of the season and I just got it back up tonight.
ShawnS
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:40 AM |
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Official NWS Forecasts
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Our official NWS forecast from Miami for the end of the week already includes the wording windy, then very windy, and then strong winds.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:41 AM |
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Re: Feedback
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Gary Gray is OKAY but he turned me off after attempting to spin his "great" 2002 forecast as even good. It was sub-mediocre. Long time readers of this site know that I was all over him in 2002 because he just wasn't getting it. His whole seasonal premise was aimed at the Outer Banks with every storm missing by as close as 100 miles due east. (It was a bit more technical, but that was the bottom line).
As I said last night, I think Frances takes aim at southern North Carolina. I don't know why I picked that out on the Thursday thread at S2K, but it seemed reasonable. There's every argument between a Florida, a North Carolina or no landfall at all. All the ideas are plausible. But the bottom line is we're just going to have to wait. This should be an anxious week as the US gets prepared for its 5th (and possibly 6th *see below* landfalling named storm).
I did pretty good with Gaston. I liked the idea of a landfalling tropical storm (possibly high-end) that would drop localized 10"+. It seems possible that some areas may end up with 15+ before it's all said and done. Gaston still presents nicely on the Wilmington radar.
Bastardi's calling for landfall of Hermine possibly in Massachusetts or Rhode Island tomorrow night. He likes the idea of a 40-50mph storm bringing several hours of rain squalls. If Hermine follows Joe's course (and lookout eastern Long Island too), it will be the 2nd of probably 3 American landfalls in this 10 day period. Joe's making waves today that he cut his initial landfall intensity forecast after discussions with some of his bosses. He said it was far into record territory but had to shave it off just because. He's now thinking his record territory (anyway) numbers may end up being underdone for the season.
But my goodness what a pattern. I told my bosses that the preseason numbers were higher than the record, and I trimmed them to what was 2.5 above normal. The numbers heavily weigh on the intensity trend scale I have developed that you see on the post with the wave look. And the mid season update, with the extra points tacked on actually took it over the record. But I have never seen a set up like this for systems to hit the United States. With the overall pattern the way it is, the water temps the way it is, it may wind up being a case of the extreme forecast not being extreme enough. Certainly with Charley's damage, and the threat of more big storms, the dollar cost of this years season will be the highest ever.
He also cautioned that what he's watching now, depending on how far northeast Frances ends up will potentially open up the western and central gulf for home brew 6-8 days after Frances. if he hits that (after catching the Gaston/Hermine pattern development), even his most serious detractors would have to acknowledge there was some method to his madness.
Steve
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:44 AM |
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Re: West Gulf!
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Quote:It was mentioned elsewhere while this board was down earlier today. I didnt' get a take on what development or direction might occur. While we are at it, the GFL also shows sometthing off the East coast of Florida AFTER Frances has moved on...something maybe part of the wave HankFrank mentioned earlier in this thread. Ouch!
I know everyone is wrapped up with our major hurricane out there but I was just on the Accuweather site and read something about them watching the western gulf for something. Does anyone know if Joe B. discussed this in his column? By the way, my computer has been down for most of the season and I just got it back up tonight.
ShawnS
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:46 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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if you listen to the twc youd never know a monster was out there. mentioned it for 30 seconds maybe.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:47 AM |
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Re: West Gulf!
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805 PM EDT SUN 29 AUG 2004
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE COVER
MOST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
IS FEEDING INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...EMBEDDED
IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...COVERING MOST OF THE GULF
EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N84W TO 27N88W
TO 23N94W. AN 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
27N95W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTHWEST
OF 30N85W 24N90W 20N97W
On a lighter note. Is this a new Category or what?
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
CATEGORY THREE FOUR HURRICANE FRANCES CENTER NEAR 18.8N 55.8W OR
ABOUT 480 MILES/772 KM EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 30/0000 UTC...MOVING WEST 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB.
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danielw
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:50 AM |
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Re: TWC
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Yeah, and they are running the early morning storm video every 15 minutes. Disappointed at the lack of Frances coverage, but she is way out there, and not close to home by some standards.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:55 AM |
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Re: Feedback
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Keep in mind folks that Frances is over a 1000 miles away from the Florida coast. Still lots of time for things to change. Frances winds are at 125 as read from the plane, and has encountered some shear. I wouldn't be surprised if she weakens a bit. But once she rounds the base of the ridge I expect here to intensify again, as shear should abate UL conditions should improve, and SSTs are 29 -30 degrees C. By Wednesday we should have a better idea on where she's going. No need to panic! she's a slow mover now. But as the ridge strengthens aas Gaston and Hermine evacuate to the NNE, Frances' Forward speed should pick up again.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:02 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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New 5 day forcast out. 26.5N 77W Having it move slightly WNW. On that course, I believe, it would stay over the water off of Florida.
Here's how I got that:
4 day forcast: 24.5 N 74.5 W. In 24 hrs, it moves 2 degrees N and 2.5 W.
Adding those on another 24 hrs brings it to 28.5 N 79.5 W. That's still off shore.
Tell me if I'm anywhere near correct on my assumptions.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:04 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:I'm afraid when John Hope died, TWC went from informed opinion to sensationalism. Good thing I still don't have TV back after Charley
if you listen to the twc youd never know a monster was out there. mentioned it for 30 seconds maybe.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:06 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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With that forecast that the NHC put out at 11PM, your assumptions are correct for that forecast. Though I must admit the forecast seems a little odd, given the trend of the models to lean more left than right. Who knows.... NHC sees models we do not, so I always give them the benefit of the doubt, but I am not going to celebrate until they have a better handle on the track. Though I must admit it made me smile a bit seeing that track.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:09 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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of course, my assumptions only hold true if the hurricane went in a straight line. As we all know, that isn't ususally the case. A 60 mile wobble, like what David did in 79 could cause a landfall.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:10 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Looks like NHC used the same method.
...ADVISORY NUMBER 21
...OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Quote:THis might make you feel a teeny tad better...from the 11pm forecast:
Neither do I. I just now looked up my coordinates at http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/gazetteer-tbl and it says that I am at
28.01N 80.67W
96hr VT 03/0000z 24.5n 74.5w 110 kt
120hr VT 04/0000z 26.5n 77.0w 110 kt
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:12 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Seems like they are going more with a GFDL solution for the time being.. In past Frances forecasts they have been more inline with a compromise between UKMET and GFS solution. Think they maybe overworked writing Discussions, maybe they decided for the time being it doesnt matter what they write, and Mr Lawrence decided, tonight I instead of a compromise solution, I am just going to go with the GFDL model, as I do not need to figure coordinates, the model give me what I need and I can go back to my hand of poker with my fellow NHC.. LOL... (I digress)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:16 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Did anyone else find the forecast for Frances tonight ODD ? 110 Knots across the board and a track directly off the latest GFDL ?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:17 AM |
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Re: From the 11pm discussion
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...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND
THEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFDL IS
SIMILAR. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS
ARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE
GUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES
SOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.
...THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO
100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO
CONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS
AND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:22 AM |
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NOGAPS
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This model is pretty good with surf predictions, it has the storm taking a floyd recurve track through abaco then n it has the center 300 miles ne of me here in stuart shows 36+ feet out for a hundred miles and 21-26 feet just off the coast with side shore winds. The beaches here wont hold that sise surf but down in miami where its supposed to be 15-20 feet the botttom there can hold it and its forcast to be offshore winds.
So for anyone who is interested in surfing, reef road to goverment cut is the place to go on friday if we do not get hit.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:27 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:THeir reasoning seemed sound and maybe models actually can get it right once in a while. Speaking of which: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
Did anyone else find the forecast for Frances tonight ODD ? 110 Knots across the board and a track directly off the latest GFDL ?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:30 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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look only to david 1979 to see a repeat. same time of year, same intensity, cv storm, and coast hugger followed gulf stream.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:33 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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due to size and prox to coast we could be looking at a wide spread evac for the south with many not getting hit but many getting out of the way of a left hook turn. too close not to evac especially after charley assumptions see floyd 1999 ugh...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:35 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/...ion=Orlando+Fla
THis means I can retire for the evening
It isnt supposed to get withing 240 mises <2% chance by 70 hours...guess I can sleep tonight, worry tomorrow.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:41 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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70 hours is going on three days/nights, so you should get a good nights sleep for at least the next two nights, like we all should. No reason for anyone to even think about worrying until later this week.
Bill
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:00 AM |
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Re: Model Update
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GFS model update is up.
It shows Frances just north of the Myrtle Beach,SC area poised for a Monday, Sep 6th, afternoon/evening landfall.
**Note: This is the same model that showed Frances making a landfall in Mobile,AL on Wednesday Sep 8th. So there is quite a difference this far in advance of the storm. Don't turn your back and let your guard down. This was the 192 hour forecast model.**
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_192s.gif
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:05 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Just throwing some thoughts out here, but if Frannie decides to take a route that would lead it into the GOM, there will be a mess of royal proportions there. Being the Labor Day weekend, The main beaches on the GOM are already gonna be packed, as well as the hotels in New Orleans for Southern Decadence. I just don't see getting everyone out of those areas in time, but I don't have the experience that the EM's have.
Another scenario having Frannie come on shore in South Georgia would probably cause utter chaos because of the last mass evacuation from the Georgia Coast. You probably will not find any rooms next weekend from Valdosta probably to north of Atlanta.
Just a gut feeling, but I think that we all should head out to the Red Cross this week and donate something or anything we can, because wherever this monster hits, it's gonna be bad. I pray that it doesn't, but I'm really a bit spooked by the forecasts now.....And heck I'm up here in Atlanta......
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:50 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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Plane has been in and out of Frances since 06Z. First fix gave a 958mb pressure and max. flight level winds of 88kts.
Second fix gave a pressure of 958mb and maximum flight level winds of 99kts.
NHC/TPC decided to split the information from all the agencies and came up with a 105kt maximum sustained wind.
This was mainly due to 2 of the 3 satellite agencies categorizing Frances with higher wind speeds than Recon found. You can read the whole discussion by clicking "Frances", under the "Current Storms" heading. The discussion gives NHC's justification for Not lowering the wind speed.
Latest visual pics don't show the small eye. It is visible on the other shots. LSU sat pics are starting to show -75 to -80degree cloud tops on the SW quadrant.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
Hermine: Is showing more convection at this time, and nearing the Gulf Stream.
Gaston: Remains of Gaston are drifting ENE over mid NC.
Drifting toward Hermine. Another record in the making. Having 2 cyclones in a 5deg by 10 deg area.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:55 AM |
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Re: Models use of history
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Quote:....I won't have time to worry then.
70 hours is going on three days/nights, so you should get a good nights sleep for at least the next two nights, like we all should. No reason for anyone to even think about worrying until later this week.
When it gets close enough to worry, I'll be packing and moving myself, my cat and my valuables to safer locations. *Then* I won't have time to worry.
For now, while I have time, I collect and evaluate information, make plans, prepare for the worst, and ... worry ...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:25 AM |
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Lest we forget...
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Quote:
Plane has been in and out of Frances since 06Z.
The 5 am forecast exerpt:
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/0900Z 19.0N 57.3W 105 KT
12HR VT 30/1800Z 19.1N 59.2W 105 KT
This thing is CURRENTLY well south of all of us (in the US) and models or no, until it is NORTH of where you are, you are not out of danger *yet*.
I am personally glad to see the projections showing that this storm is weakening slightly and may not be Cat IV if landfall occurs, maybe not even CAT III, and am also glad that the projections also show that the storm *may* not do more than *SCARE* Florida, but I also don't wish whatever the storm remains capable of wreaking to be inflicted on any of my neighbors to the north (unless of course they are Yankees
). Now is the time to be very aware of what is happening NOW and continue preparations just in case.
| summercyclone |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM |
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Re: Recon Update
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Yes, I was thinking I have never seen two cyclones so close together...amazing they aren't doing the binary interaction (fujiwhara) thing!
Also, Gaston still has an 'eye' feature this am...maybe he will regenerate once over the water??
Frances==we will see.....
sc
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:43 AM |
Re: Lest we forget...
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I beleive the intensity will increase as the shear decreases and she is just entering 28-30c SST's. The track is starting to show a slow wnw-nw track possible sparing south fl. but until she passes I'm on guard. :?:
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:46 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:MikeC, if you have time please ake a look at the most recent GFS animated model:
Very busy in the Tropics today.]
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
What is the GFS showing here? *ANOTHER* storm right behind Frances? This time impacting the Fla coast after a near miss by Frances? Is this the wave you alluded to when you started this thread? If so, you're good, very good, to have picked up on this in the midst of all of the close-in excitement.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:58 AM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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I am feeling a lot better.... I have to belive that we will be spared a second on slought of Hurricanes this year. The storm can stay out to sea ..... I am hopeing that it was enough to scare the willies out of all of us and just skirt us here in Florida The radios and tv's are going bonkers... FRANCES is all you hear. If people didn't get the message with Charley not sure they ever will. We get our hurricane stuff together the first of June and disban it the end of October. Keep listening and paying attention should it come our way ... in several hours like 144 hours or so
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:02 PM |
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Re: Recon Update
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I don't think Gaston will regenerate unless it transitions into something su-tropical, otherwise it's energy will linger but I am suprised that it still has an eye feature, that's a very organised tropical storm.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:08 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:I reflect your sentiments exactly, but don't forget that this beast is still SOUTH of us and projections are just that, projections. Until it passes by, it can still be very much a part of our lives. But, for now, there is that ray of hope, I agree. For those to our north, the ray is still quite cloudy though.
I am feeling a lot better.... I have to belive that we will be spared a second on slought of Hurricanes this year. The storm can stay out to sea ..... I am hopeing that it was enough to scare the willies out of all of us and just skirt us here in Florida The radios and tv's are going bonkers... FRANCES is all you hear. If people didn't get the message with Charley not sure they ever will. We get our hurricane stuff together the first of June and disban it the end of October. Keep listening and paying attention should it come our way ... in several hours like 144 hours or so
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:16 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Don't feel too good just yet. There is a large margin of error on a 5 day forecast track sometimes.
However, the thing that I always keep in mind is that historicly at least, the majority of storms taking the Francis path do curve to the North. Andrew being the most memorable exception. So, you have to watch and prepare.
I fear GOM storms that cross the state like Charley much more than Atlantic storms.
But, I keep an eye on them just the same.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:23 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:I agree. While it is by no means determined that Frances will NOT cross the state similarly to Charley, and that it is coming from the other side, you should remember that when it made it across the state (Charley), it was still a hurricane, and still CAT II when it hit Orlando a hundred or so miles away from landfall. If Frances were to come in as originally stated by the MLB wx office, near Jupiter inlet, it would likely exit near your fine town of Tampa, and probably would get your attention in a most negative way. I'm glad you're keeping watch still. It is too early for any of us to be too relieved.
Don't feel too good just yet. There is a large margin of error on a 5 day forecast track sometimes.
However, the thing that I always keep in mind is that historicly at least, the majority of storms taking the Francis path do curve to the North. Andrew being the most memorable exception. So, you have to watch and prepare.
I fear GOM storms that cross the state like Charley much more than Atlantic storms.
But, I keep an eye on them just the same.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:31 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Have been reading all your posts. I am a bit more encouraged also, but still plan on starting to board up east and north sides of house. Maybe fruitless effort but I don't want to do it at last minute. Too many memories of Floyd and Irene in 1999. We had lots of damage from those "misses" here! And they just took all the Charley debris off my street!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:36 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Frances looks like it's out of the shear today, it might do some significant strenghtening. Hermine better turn out to sea, she looks more organised then ever, are they doing any more recon flights on her? Floridians are never out of the woods unless the storm is a fish spinner, hurricane frances might hit you but then it could very well hit another state, or it might just landfall in two states. The odds of it hitting Florida right now are high 51 to 49 but that 49 could become Florida.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:I just got the latest E-Mail from NHC which says in part:
Have been reading all your posts. I am a bit more encouraged also, but still plan on starting to board up east and north sides of house. Maybe fruitless effort but I don't want to do it at last minute. Too many memories of Floyd and Irene in 1999. We had lots of damage from those "misses" here! And they just took all the Charley debris off my street!
AT 8 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.1 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES... 425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.
Given the size of Frances, you are probably making a wise decision to continue preparations. Many of the models that show a 'miss', still show it within range to do damage, especially to coastal areas. Good luck!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:40 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Frances is going to pass very near the northern leeward islands today, I hope? Or will it hit them.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:45 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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How much faith are people putting in the GFS track...looks to me like it could be similar one to Gaston.??
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 12:52 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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Quote:I hope it misses them too, but it seems obvious that barring major changes, they darned sure will be *affected* by Frances. WV loop shows outflow cirrus clouds from the approximate center of the leading edge only hours away from the Northern Leeward islands.
Frances is going to pass very near the northern leeward islands today, I hope? Or will it hit them.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:05 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Frances seems to be behaving according to plan as I read the NHC discussion today. Sattelite bears out a due west, perhaps slightly south of due west track at this time, but according to NHC that is predicted for up to 72 hrs. What I note in that is this behavior is left of the tracks predicted two -three days ago.
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the GFDL, etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
The models on Wednesday are critical in my opinion...as the synoptic data by then should be fairly firm on the race between the trough and the storm.
Something else to watch as a predictive tool could be the ULL to the storm's NW several hundred miles, visible on the WV. If that lifts out to the north, then that could signal the weakness in the ridge that it will follow...if it stays firm to the west then that could indicate the trend to the south for Frances...
Happy speculating.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:14 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Code:
Lets face it, the race is on between the short wave trough in the northwest and the storm.
In my observational experience there is a good rule of thumb for those of us ilocated in the southern half of the florida peninsula. and that is what is occurring as the storm approaches what I call the 25/75 junction, which it will on about Thrsday evening/ Fridaymorining: If the storm has moved that far north and is more north than west and passes north of that spot, per the GFDL, etc. then Florida is generally safe. If it passes that spot to the south and is more west or wnw then Florida is a target.
Very good observation...Both about the 25/75 and the ULL on the WV. I think the 2 TS's have reshaped the tropical ridge somewhat on the west end and that may be why we are seeing the forecasts shifting north. OTOH, as you noted, the current track is still due WEST so someone needs to tell Frances to look north
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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I was reading on another site that the forward speed of Frances has picked up putting it about 6 hours ahead of forecast schedule. I was wondering if this is true or just hype from another less informed site?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:51 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Frances is picking up speed; I would think the 11AM update can shift the forecast path a bit to the left ..it's a seesaw game for now; But I will wait until wednesday to asess and implement pre-Plan B :?:
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:53 PM |
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models
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AVN 144 hours
CMC 132 hours
GFDL 120 hours --very similar to Floyd
NOGAPS 144 hours
UKMET 120 hours
| ShaggyDude |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:56 PM |
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Re: models
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Thanks Rabbit - nice model snapshots, though very ominous for Florida, hit or not.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:57 PM |
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Re: models
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Interesting that the Canadian Model has Frances crossing southern Florida.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: models
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All of which show graphically why we still aren't out of the woods yet....Thanks for the URL's.
BTW, Why is the formatting of this page AFU?
Only this last page is W I D E!!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:01 PM |
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Re: models
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Not very promising. Still think it is a SC event, but those models look bad for Florida.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: models
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Do you think south florida is going to be in the clear?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:18 PM |
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Got one of my gut feelings right.
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#21172 - Sat Aug 28 2004 04:24 PM
I wrote:
I bet (I love to gamble) that she will cross 58 W before 20 N
Lets hope my other gut feeling doesn't come to fruitation:
#21355 - Sun Aug 29 2004 06:29 PM
Palm Beach area is kinda my gut feeling right now. I don't think I buy into the S. Fl scenario.
Just a few more days of bluffing and Mother Nature will reveal her Aces.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:21 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Just in from the MLB wx folks:
FRI-SUN...00Z GFDL AND GFS BEGINNING TO SHOW A WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE NORTH OF FRANCES AND A TURN TO THE NW EAST OF THE AREA NEAR 77
DEGREES WEST BY SAT. OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND CANADIAN
KEEP A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM
TWD JUPITER INLET AND THE FL KEYS RESPECTIVELY. THE 00Z GFS HAD THE
BENEFIT OF 43 ADDITIONAL DROPSONDES ACROSS THE ATLC WHICH SHOULD
HAVE HELPED THE ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT AROUND FRANCES.
FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BEYOND DAY 5
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS STILL WITHIN THE 325 TO
400 NM ERROR CONE AT THIS TIME RANGE AND THERE IS STILL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY WHEN FRANCES WILL MAKE A TURN (AND TO WHAT DEGREE).
I think this says it all. GFS hopfully wins, but SE Fla still can win the booby prize.
PS http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
| ShaggyDude |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:39 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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HOW MUCH
THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF
THIS HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST
FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST. ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL
FORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH
SUCCESSIVE RUN.
IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...
ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A
POINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE
ERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
Straight from the horse's mouth, the 11am NHC discussion. Everybody needs to be weary and cautious with Frances.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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This is from the 7 day by county forecast on the Melbourne Weather Service site for all of East central Florida:
POWERFUL HURRICANE FRANCES IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
THURSDAY MORNING THEN CURVE NORTHWEST...APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THIS LABOR DAY WEEKEND. OCEAN SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ROUGH POUNDING SURF AND POSSIBLE
BEACH EROSION TO THE COASTLINE. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW CLOSE HURRICANE
FRANCES WILL COME TO CENTRAL FLORIDA OR WHERE IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL.
EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT PREPARATION TIME BECOMES VERY LIMITED AS A
HURRICANE NEARS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES PEOPLE IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TO HAVE SUPPLIES ON HAND AND A PLAN IN PLACE WELL IN
ADVANCE OF ANY HURRICANE BECOMING AN IMMEDIATE THREAT.
YOU ARE ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON FRANCES
FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. STATEMENTS AND WARNINGS REGARDING
FRANCES THAT ARE SPECIFIC TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:45 PM |
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Gaston
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satellite
radar
Gaston is still well organized--is it at all possible that it could move back out over water and regenerate like Danny in 1997?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:50 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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you people are alarmists!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: Gaston
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has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L
there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??
| Rasvar |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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I think that the Carolinas are the most likely destination. However, the cone of error keeps all of Florida well within it at the moment. Probably get a better feel tomorrow afternoon into Wednesday. It would not hurt to check or resupply your hurricane kits. Frances will be a large storm, which may help keep her from getting back up to cat 4, if we are lucky she will fall to cat 2.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:55 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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The models on Wednesday will be critical.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:56 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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What's with the turn at the end of the forecast period? Carolina bound maybe?
frances' track
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:56 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Let's just keep our supplies on hand.............I am feeling awful about those in your area Kississimmee....................
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 02:59 PM |
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Re: Gaston
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Quote:
has anyone seen whats comming off of Africa?
97L
there have already been 8 storms this month--could there be 9??
Yes, look at
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
and see what the GFS shows hanging off the coat tails of Frances on 9/15 or so.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Quote:Better be alarmed and informed rather than entertained and dead like the TWC. This forum is a good place to express facts, interpretations and opinions. Often, we present the facts as we know them and look to other to help interpret them.
you people are alarmists!
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:05 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:11 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Pressure around the 5th is expected to be 954, which I assume would translate to 125 mph
The other system on the 14th is forecast at 986, which would be Cat I
and there could be another system behind that one
lots of storms being hurled at the southeast coast this year, just in a single month
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:24 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Quote:Yes, especially when there is any doubt what-so-ever as is the case with Frances. In answer to the 'alarmist' post earlier by another, I would only add you don't wait to call the fire department when the house is already burnt to the ground, you call it at the first whiff of smoke! That's not being alarmist, it is being prudent.
Isn't it best to prepare for the worst?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:25 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Model runs over the next 5 days are going to be sooo important. I will post my 3 and 5 day forcasts later today on here and hopefully we will have a new thread up. As of my post 3 days back my 3 day forcast is right on. 5 day of it being near 20-21N and 70 looks close. Pattern is evoloving now with upper trough to the west and moving w. Somehow as a forsight into the future I suspect after a turn towards wnw near 70 a turn more westerly again near 75. But when the turn again NW? before on or after florida? I think i went too far already, will post later today. scottsvb
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:29 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Looks like Frances will pass 60W to the south of 20N....inside the Hebert Box benchmark. The NHC has been tending to follow the GFDL model in recent forecasts. Now they are becoming more alarmed since, just as they start to show confidence in a late NW turn, the GFDL is swinging back west. I wonder if this is because the hurricane has been moving almost due west for around 18 hours now, skewing the models. (?) Also, I see the forward speed as doubling since yesterday...though not reflected as such in official statements. But, look at the following past storm plots:
8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)
8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)
I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph. The implications down the road could be enormous. A faster moving storm early on will result in a position farther west before any northward turn occurs..increasing the danger to Florida.
As for intensity, I do believe when recon gets out there this afternoon, they will find she has strengthened...the satellite presentation has much improved. The eye is very small with very intense convection continuing to fire around the center....quite a different picture from last evening.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Ric in full agreement with all your points....................it is safer to plan as you said.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:35 PM |
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Link to current conditions in Antigua
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html
Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Looks like Antigua will start feeling affects from the extreme outward bands.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:37 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Longtime lurker, first time post. I saw this on the Florida Today website and thought it would be somewhat useful to the discussion. I sure hope she recurves northward, I have a lot of family in that area.
FLORIDA ANGLE
National Hurricane Center computer models show a subtropical ridge blocking a northward turn by Frances through three days.
However, forecasters say the ridge should weaken beyond 72 hours, allowing the hurricane to start its recurveature toward the northwest.
This means a possible close call for Florida. The current 5-day track has Frances in the northern Bahamas east of West Palm Beach on Saturday morning.
The track shows Frances moving northwest, meaning South Florida and possibly Central Florida will escape a direct hit, but will be buffetted by the west side of the hurricane.
In its late morning update today, hurricane center forecaster said how much
the ridge will weaken is critical for the longer-range track of this hurricane.
They also warned that forecasts of more than 72 hours out can have
errors of several hundred miles.
- FLORIDA TODAY
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:42 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Anybody watching Gaston? It's holding together remarkably well. It almost looks like it's getting stronger. I wonder what will happen when it gets closer to the ocean. Didn't Danny intensify over marshy land that was already soaked? This could be an interesting afternoon in Tidewather VA.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:43 PM |
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Frances
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looking at visible imagery, Frances is exhibiting the dry slot around the eye that is typical of category three hurricanes moving through areas of dry air or cooler water. This one appears to be moving through dry air, as seen on the wv images over the past few days
Frances will not make it to category 5, and may not even strenghen back to a four.
I think it will go about 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral on Sep 4/5 and then go into Cape Fear with winds at 105-115 about 18 hours later
as for Gaston, it has an excellent chance of regenerating if it is not over land for more than 24 hours more
Danny did regenerate to 50-60 mph on July 24 1997 off of the Delmarva Peninsula
| Keith234 |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:43 PM |
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97L
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This is our next hurricane, this one just came off africa and it's already looking like a tropical storm. Any one's thoughts on 97, where will it go, how strong will it become? 9 named storms in August, imagine what sept going to bel like.
| Ricreig |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:44 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Quote:While your reasoning is well taken, and not disagreed with, I would note your positions did not seem to take into account that there was a Northerly component omitted. The diagonal line on the 29th could have been much as long as (and considering the speed changes the NHC noted) the horizontal line of the 30th....there was a change of direction from WNW to W during that period. While it did slow down some, then sped up, I'm not sure it was double...more like a low of 8 and now about 12 which isnt double. But, if you are right, yes, the further and faster it gets west, the more likely Florida gets the prize.
8/29.. 5am: 54.1W
8/29.. 11am: 54.7W (movement west of .6 degrees)
8/30.. 5am: 57.3W
8/30.. 11am: 58.7W (movement west of 1.4 degrees)
I believe the hurricane is moving more like 15-18mph, as opposed to the official line of 12mph.
Gotta go teach my class about Hurri...er Computers... You guys kkeep the vigil and I wish all of you out there God's speed and protection.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:49 PM |
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Re: 97L
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I was comparing the season to 1969 back in June and July, and said that this year, although likely to be active, would not be nearly as active as '69
16 is the highest i have ever forecast in the last 8 years of doing the seasonals, and that could be a little low
since 1998 we have averaged 9-10 storms after August
We are very likely to see Ivan form by the end of tomorrow
this is not a forecast, but it is entirely possible that if the active trend continues, we could very well reach the activity of even 1995, and if September is as active as August, we could reach the end of the name list (Sep as active as August would be 18, add a few in October, we could easily reach "w")
if anyone is interested, here are my other seven annual (and very inaccurate) forecasts
previous on left, actual on right
1997: 12 7
1998: 8 14
1999: 8 12
2000: 7 14
2001: 10 15
2002: 7 12
2003: 11 16
2004: 16 19+?
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 03:53 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Nah I think god is out of the protection racket these days.....
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:04 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Rabbit,
It seems every year we get more and more named systems, this trend seems to be continuing, what could it be related to gobal warming, nah way to fast. Maybe this is realtive to the sun spot cycle, otherwise I'm stumped. This is very dangerous, having more and more hurricanes each year and hitting land as a CAT 4.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Its the pre-El Nino
just remember how incredibly active 1995 and 1996 were, then 1997 was very quiet
Last and this year will likely add up to a high amount, and next year willl likely be pretty quiet (then again, i said the same thing in 2000, 2001, 20002, and last year about the following season)
maybe the season is making up for June and July...
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:08 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Take a look a this. Some storm mitosis from Frances in the future? I wonder how a split hurricane situation would play out?
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/noga...;hour=Animation
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:09 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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My father reminded me Friday that this was the anniversary of a Cat four storm crossing Florida from the southeast. He remembers the house he was in coming apart that night. Take a look at track, intensity, and Date. A lot of similarities with Frances. I wish the map were a little more detailed.
1949 hurricane 2
Hurric
| Larry |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:10 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Not only watching, but experiencing Gaston passing directly over central NC. Expecting 2-6" of rain. Wind gusts were to 32 mph, just enough to bring down a few trees to knock out power to 6500 homes. Local radar loops were fascinating to watch as Gaston came over. I just hope those radar loops don't show Frances next weekend if it comes towards NC.....
Joe Bastardi should get an A+ for calling Gaston. He also mentioned on his video today that he thought Gaston could bring more rain than expected to the Tidewater area since it seems to be maintaining good structure over land.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Yes it is looking like a possibility........................that puts most of the state behind the 8 ball once again. Thanks for the link.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:30 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Quote:
Nah I think god is out of the protection racket these days.....
That's not true at all Redbird.
But, its' still up to us to take all the precautions necessary to preserve life and property.
Belive me, we can use all the help we can get.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:37 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Hey religion does bring some people comfort at a time like this...............I understand that.....................
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:42 PM |
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Hermine
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This storm poses a danger to us on Long Island, mainly montauk and the hamptons, where I am right now. Hopefully it will go right out to see, as described by the NHC forecast but I'm prepared for the worst. It's packing winds of 50 mph and gusts up to 60.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 04:53 PM |
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Surf's Up dudes...
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Last year, I think it was Richiesurfs, posted this great link.
If you look out to 144 hours, it's interesting where the strongest surf is...is this model taking Frances up the coast maybe? Good news for FL if that's the case, but that doesn't make ME feel any better. What do y'all think?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:18 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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I'll throw this in......
18Z GFS does what the link above to "1949 hurricane 2" did; a hit north of Miami, and going up the center of Florida. Back to the west again. 12Z CMC, which has been one of the left leaning models, puts her in the center of the south Bahama'a in about three days. The GFS is supposed to take the info from the hurricane hunters and put it to good use about as well as any of the models.
Buddy at work and myself banged heads about Frances last night to see what we could come up with, and we think this could be a space coast hit and follow the coast inland. I see no saving NW turn until it's too late, but if it misses the Cape for some reason, then it won't touch Florida ( with the eye, anyway), but all the piers that we rebuilt after Floyd will be gone again. But my confidence at this point is low to a complete miss.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:21 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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accuweather's track.
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:25 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Accuweather's track has a pretty hefty curve, though one would guess it's possible. I was looking at the margin for error, as the extreme right side looks improbable, though that's what we're all wishing. Looking at the latest satellites, Frances is looking much more symetrical and potentially stronger.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huvsloop.html
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:26 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Joepub, can u please post the link to the 18z gfs model run.
Thanks
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:29 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Hurric,
I talked about that 1949 storm yesterday as being the last major hurricane to have its eye go over here in Palm Beach County. It has been 55 years since a major crossed Palm Beach County, a longgggg time. That storm came in at Jupiter Inlet, just where they were mentioning a possible landfall for Frances as of yesterday.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:29 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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18Z GFS Run
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:30 PM |
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Re: Frances track
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Quote:
you people are alarmists!
Being alarmed is not a perquisite for exposure to eminent danger.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:35 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Yeah I was thinking that too...................it just does not look good for us in the space coast area.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:38 PM |
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18Z GFS
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Thanks Phil.
I'm with ShaggyDude on his statement. The right side of that track cannot happen IMO. Ain't gonna see it. Florida does an evac of the east coast even if it misses, it's that close.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:40 PM |
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Re: 18Z GFS
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Joe in Jax I would be interested in knowing why it is impossible for the right side of that track to play out.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:41 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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GFS model link.
Look @ #`s 108 thru 156.
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/gfsanim.html
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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What in the world would cause that thing to do what looked to be an S-curve over the Central Florida Area?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:46 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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That is what I would like to know too.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:47 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track
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That's scary! But note it is way left of its previous tracks.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:52 PM |
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Re: 18Z GFS
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Redbird, it would be pretty near impossible for a curve like that to happen, as it would have to start the northly trek now, and go nearly due north in 72-120 hours. If the ridge is just supposed to start to break up in that time frame, there's no way Frances will be heading at a high enough angle to miss the continental U.S. And I agree with joepub1, somebody, or everybody, on the east coast of Flordia will have mandatory evactuations before it's over.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:52 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track
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The scariest thing has this taking almost 24hrs to go from vero to Jacksonville. That's a lot of rain in Central Florida. The Sentinel had a great article saying that most subdivisions were built to withstand 7 inches of rain over a 24 hour period. If, and that's a big IF, Frances were to slowly creep over Florida, there would be massive flooding.
Here's a quote:
But double or triple that amount of rain, and streets would flood, and the St. Johns River would rise and back up creeks and tributaries that feed into it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:54 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...GFS Track
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Go to the Patrick AF site.
https://www.patrick.af.mil/45OG/45ws/forecast/stormplot1.jpg
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 05:57 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Rabbit, I don't know where you get your information from, but there is NO connection between current activity and the future formation of an El-Nino. El-Ninos can affect hurricane seasons, but they really have no relation to them. 1997 was quiet BECAUSE of the raging El-Nino that year. The East Pac season was active in 1997 because of it, but at the same time prevented systems from forming in the Atlantic. We didn't have that in 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, or this year. Also, ENSO is just one factor in determining how active a hurricane season will be. With the exception of 1997, every year since 1995 has been marginally to very favorable for tropical development. There is no rule that says we have to have a quiet season after a few active ones. Weather does not follow some human guideline just as hurricanes do not read models to tell them where to go.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:00 PM |
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Re: 97L
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from an email at KSC
--Hurricane Frances is a dangerous storm. Already a category 3 storm, she could elevate to a Category 4 or 5 before landfall. It is very early to determine with any degree of certainty where she will go, however one thing is for certain, we must be prepared. The Hurricane Center official track is less than 50 miles from KSC. Unlike Hugo, Isabel, and Floyd and other similar storms which have curved north before reaching Florida, there are no obvious upper air features to protect us—the door is open along the entire Florida coast.
Take the time now to take care of your home and family. If evacuation is deemed necessary, the announcement to do so could come as early as late Thursday or early Friday. This depends on the forward movement of the storm, and expected path of travel. Barrier Island evacuations are announced by Brevard County based on data received from the National Hurricane Center, and National Weather Service.
It is not to early to think about an evacuation location. Reservations in hotels can always be canceled, if not needed. I have enclosed a checklist of necessary items that you may need following a storm. Don't wait until the last minute to start preparing, do it now. Again, this is a very dangerous storm.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:01 PM |
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Re: Frances track-GFDL model
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The GFDL model was relaible all along in Charley and was very accurate about 36 hours before Charley had land fall, and was even good on intensity...Watch this model on Wednesday...that's what iIwill be doing.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:01 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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What in the world would cause that thing to do what looked to be an S-curve over the Central Florida Area?
Frances rides along the edge of the ridge. Gaston exits to the NE. Leaves weak trof behind that allows Frances to go WNW to maybe almost NW. Trof lifts out, high pressure get a kick in the pants from the north, builds in again , causes Frances back to WNW-W again until she can find the edge of the ridge to go polar again. This plays out to a point with alot of the models, on the globals just watch to the north as the ridge builds back. This is the only way most of the east coast of FL can take a direct hit, this is almost exactly how it has to set itself up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:04 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Unlike Hugo, Isabel, and Floyd and other similar storms which have curved north before reaching Florida, there are no obvious upper air features to protect us—the door is open along the entire Florida coast.
I think that says it all !!!!!
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:04 PM |
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Re: 97L
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THANK YOU! I am doing just that with supplies and seeking evac plans.
I was just posting possible tracks I got off the net. I hope noone thinks I am trying to interpret them. I am not trained to do that........all I know is get my affairs in order now.
| LI Phil |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:05 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Excellent analysis joepub...on this water vapor loop you can see the ridge forcing Frances to stay on her current westward jog, but can also see the trof being left behind by Hermine...which should serve to pull Frances more northward...at this point, we're not sure just how strong the next ridge will be, and that's where it becomes crucial for NE FL.
| Unregistered User |
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| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:06 PM |
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Re: 97L
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Yes Richie it puts to rest that fable of some ridge always protecting the space coast. We are finding soon that it is a bunch of crap!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:12 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Joe are you saying that a lot of events have to occur in order for us to get a hit?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:22 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Fox news has started getting more urgent on its broadcast about Frances. I tend to look at this news provider as a sensation seeking news media, but, with the Republican Convention and several exotic sex trials going on I figure that Frances must be getting more interesting all the time. I tend to avoid being drawn into computer hysteria because the written word can be taken out of emotional context so easily. It seems like that Wednesday prediction of knowing more information may be speeded up if Frances continues to speed up.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:27 PM |
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Models On Frances
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I see that the models are agreeing to the westward tilt; again, not until Wednesday ( 3 day window) will I place a high confidence level on the models and where Frances can go as determined by the 'cone'.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:31 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Phil,
I think that is still the 0829 18Z run, I don't think they have the 0830 18Z posted yet on NCEP, but the 0830 12Z is (use the same link, just change the 18 to a 12).
Bill
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:32 PM |
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Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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Just wanted to post a few personal observations after riding out Hurricane Charley in Central Florida (Polk County) -- in which we were extremely lucky that we (my family) did not take the brunt of Charley.
As we all learned, the models can all be in the same general direction and for the most part, most of them were only about 70 miles off as to where landfall would occur. The only one that wasn't was the correct one -- the one that took it right into Ft. Myers/Punta Gorda/Port Charlotte. I don't think anybody believed at that point that we could go from a Cat 2 to Cat 4 just before landfall, but it happened. My county is still trying to recover from Charley, and we didn't even take the brunt of the 145mph winds.
We often hear this from the forecasters: "don't just look at the red line because there is a margin of error and it could hit anywhere in between that cone". I never paid much attention to that warning until Charley. Now I take it a lot more serious than I ever did. A 100 miles to the right or to the left of that track makes a huge difference, and here in Florida we learned that on August 13th. As for instensity, they now have it as a Cat IV on Sunday/Monday morning and I'm not sure if they are even speculating as to what may happen when it crosses the very warm gulfstream waters. Also, if it does make a southeast Florida landfall (and I'm not saying it will) we have to take into consideration the Okechobee River. That is a HUGE body of water which would allow Frances to keep her instensity as it crosses the state/goes up the state, whichever happens. If it missed the Okechobee river to the left or to the right, we would still be looking at a very damaging hurricane upon landfall; if it crosses right across the middle, we could be looking at a Cat 4 or 5 as it makes it's way up/across the state of Florida, which would cause catastrophic damage for the entire state.
Am I being an alarmist? Absolutely not. I am looking at what happened with Charley. Charley crossed the state with 100mph winds and some people have nothing left. And THAT was what happened to the INLAND counties, and here in Polk County ALONE we have $700 million of damage. Charley woke us up, Frances might be a nightmare. There is absolutely nothing wrong with being prepared for a possible hit from Frances; actually, if you live along the eastern seaboard and are NOT prepared, it's pretty irresponsible. The NHC can only prepare you; state and local officials can order evacuations; but when it comes right down to it, YOU and you alone are responsible for protecting yourself, your family and your property.
Now...on to the models. Tampa Bays ABC Action New Channel 28 weather gal talked to one of the forecasters from the NHC during the 12 noon newscast. When asked when we could start REALLY looking at the possibility of whether or not we will get a direct hit, he said "Wednesday is going to be a very important day as to what we believe will happen with Frances, and all residents along the southeastern coast, especially Florida, really need to keep tuned in this whole week, especially from Wednesday on."
That comment came directly from the horse's mouth. Believe me, I DO NOT want to experience another hurricane at all. But that doesn't mean I can just ignore it and pretend it isn't out there.
That being said, I have put in an urgent request to Mother Nature to PLEASE kick Frances out to the N/NE; I'll let you know when she gets back with me. Probably around the same time I see the pigs flying across my backyard.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:33 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Joe are you saying that a lot of events have to occur in order for us to get a hit?
I'm saying a lot of the events that have to take place for the area north of West Palm Beach to the Georgia coast ( an area that takes very few direct hits) are in play. This is not the time to think about Floyd-Bertha tracks and chear ever little jog to the north. I think Frances will get pushed pretty hard to WNW one more time as she moves up the coast. How close she is to land, and how long it moves in that direction, I don't know. IMO the door to the north will close for at least a brief moment, but who knows, maybe she will be far enough out in the Bahama's to spare us.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:36 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Thanks Joe...................still learning. I looked at all the spaghetti models on this site and well maybe I should leave those alone and concentrate on NHC. Not sure.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:37 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Indeed, all we can do now is speculate, and even on Wednesday, no one can be 100% certain; only generally sure where Frances might go
.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:39 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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All I will say is this, if that latest run of the GFS comes anywhere close to verifying, I will be moving out of Florida after it! That is a sure sign to me that we are not suppose to live here. I've seen drunken sailors walk straighter lines then that!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:40 PM |
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Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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""Probably around the same time I see the pigs flying across my backyard.""
You just might see them pigs flying around in your backyard this weekend if this thing ends up heading your way...
For the past two days I've been saying Kennedy Space Center or south... could be wrong, probably will be... but my rationale is that the ridge will hold on long enough, and add the wild card of the increase in speed, so I'm going to stick to that projection right or wrong.. Like you Colleen I hope its turns out to sea.. don't think that is going to happen unfortunately.. this will be someone's heartbreaker for sure....
Frances looks great on the sat pix, looks rather big to I might add... could/should be a very historic week for parts of the east coast.... so glad its not my headache....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:42 PM |
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Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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Colleen those are very wise words............................I hate thinking that charley was a dress rehearsal for something worse or the opening act of a major show but like you said, mother nature does what it does.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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Hi Colleen,
I am your Polk County neighbor and sure am hoping that you don't have any pigs flying through your back yard because they probably came over my back yard to get to yours. Actually if this storm comes in from the east coast, we will probably get some real pigs flying in from Wachula and other farm areas. If this hurricane decides to cross land in to the GOM which of course is speculation, there will be no place for any one to evacuate safely. I hesitate to imagine what the civil defense leaders will do in Polk County since some of its buildings proved to be unshelter worthy this last go around.
I am so hoping that the margins of error remain over the atlantic and do not include the United States Coast lines in any direction.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:09 PM |
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Re: Surf's Up dudes...
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Looking at the WV loop, the front appears to extend pretty far into the GOM, so why isn't it expected to pick up Frances and pull her N-NE like it did with Gaston and Hermine?
Did I miss this in an NHC discussion somewhere?
Allison
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:15 PM |
Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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Hello all and comming from Cape Coral just west of Ft Myers along the gulf getting prepared for a major storm is never to early. Even with percautions I still racked up $24000 in damage. I am not ready for any more storms. Get prepared now don't wait. Changes on forecast tracks are going to happen and anyone along the Florida coast need to get prepared. This is not an anxious message, its a living thru a hurricane message. I saw what could happen and I thought I was prepared. I WASN'T!!!!!! Get things ready so when the time to act is here your ready to do what you have to do. Better safe than sorry !!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:26 PM |
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Re: Gaston Landfalls in South Carolina, Tropical Storm Hermine Forms
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The latest ukmet model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:32 PM |
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Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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So wed at 5pm will be the day that we know if this is FL or NC storm ?
Does the faster west movement today change the forecast track alot ?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:50 PM |
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Re: Frances' Path & Intensity + "Alarmists" Comment
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anyone think we'll have TD9 by the end of the day?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:54 PM |
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NEW THREAD
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Mike made a new thread about a hour ago. You guys need to post over there.