MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:45 PM |
Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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4:45 PM
The remnants of Gaston are continuing to dump lots of rain and spawning Tornados in southeast Virginia.
The Frances 5PM Update has the track a bit to the left, placing the risk for the Florida Peninsula up higher. Assuming the track verifies, landfall would occur Saturday. It's too early to pinpoint where exactly it will hit too (and what strength). (GA And the Carolinas aren't out of the woods yet either)
Folks along the entire Florida East coast must watch this system over the next few days. Watch for trends in the models. If they trend westward Palm Beach down to Miami will need to watch, if the tracks hold then central Florida will need to watch more
If they trend right, then a brush will happen and the Carolinas will need to keep watch closer. If the more southerly route happens, it could become a gulf concern as well.
To restate the National Hurricane Center, it is extremely important not to focus the exact track, especially at the long ranges the maps show. The hurricane isn't a point, and Frances is a large system. Forecast errors that far out can be off several hundred miles. Don't use the "point track" as a guide right now.
Stay tuned.
.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Hermine is getting close enough to Southeastern Massachusetts to cause Tropicla Storm Watches along the coast there, including most of Cape Cod and Martha's Vineyard. Expect a nasty overnight there.
The remnants of Gaston are near the North Carolina and Virginia borders right now dumping loads of rain and some minor wind.
The biggest question for most people is about Hurricane Frances. This weekend will be interesting for Florida and the Southeast. It becomes another race for recurvature similar to other storms with this path in the past... The question does it reach Florida before it curves or not?
It is indeed prudent to begin thinking of advanced preperations for the storm on the labor day weekend in Florida and southeast.
Although its still a little too soon to tell where it may wind up. I'd suspect to know somewhat better Wednesday. Models have trended left and right over the last day or two (left would mean more impact for Florida, right would put the Carolinas in the eye) Of course projections that far into the future aren't worth much.
With the latest model runs, it trended back left again. But I suspect it'll change again. Beware the hype with the storm, but keep focused on it during the week if you live along the areas including east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 06:59 PM |
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Link to current conditions in Antigua
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html
Pressure down to 29.88
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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I think most agree we will know better by mid week and too much going on now but now a new Invest in the picture... way out so not a problem for now.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:24 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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Looking at some of the latest model runs, it looks like the current NHC forecast track is to the right side and even outside of model consensus. Wonder if they will make a significant move to the left at 5:00 or hold on for another set of runs before doing it?
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:33 PM |
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Vortex Message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 301845
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 30/1813Z
B. 19 DEG 23 MIN N
59 DEG 21 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2666 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 017 DEG 89 KT '
G. 296 DEG 26 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 12 C/ 3072 M
J. 17 C/ 3022 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO 18-48
N. 12345/7
O. 1 /1 NM
P. NOAA3 0506A FRANCES OB 09
MAX FL WIND 89 KT NW QUAD 1806Z
Is Frances strengthening???
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:34 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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Hurricane hunters say they found the pressure back down to 948 mb this afternoon.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:35 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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Recmod, where did you find the report, and is there a site that tells one how to read it?
Thanks
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:37 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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It's on the NHC page. Here is the link..which also explains how to decipher:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
--Lou
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:38 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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Yeah, she looks like it on sats...the satellite representation has really improved today...I'd be shocked if she isn't strengthening...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:42 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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TPC finally issues a TS warning. This storm is at 50MPH moving north at 22 right straight towards Cape Cod and it doesn't seem to be getting weaker. There should have been a recon flight. Not much warning for marine interests.
| Sissy |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:44 PM |
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Heads up!!!!
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Hi Everyone,
To all along the East Coast and inland, PLEASE make your preparations now. I was just at the local Walgreen's, and most of the batteries are gone. Plywood and generators are going fast as well at the Home Depots. I learned my lesson from Charley. Also, they are picking up debris in and around Orlando from Charley which tells me that the city is concerned as well. All those downed trees can be flying projectiles.
Stay safe!
Sissy
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:44 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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Thank you greatly, and I agree with Jason, that she looks very impressive on the satellite, and she well most definatly be upgraded, the only questions are to what degree and how will it affect us long-term...
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:45 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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I brlieve the intensity level is down...89kt flight level should not support 120mph...but we'll see. The sat pics show that Frances is now moving north of west pretty much as predicted.
My question is what the role of the ULL now rotating ove the Southern Bahamas will have on Frances track...It has not moved too much today...If it stays south and west of Frances, it could enhance inensity and help throw the storm back to the west in a hard turn, as some here and some of the model graphics seem to now begin to suggest.
Any way for now, I sense the intensity will fall to CAT II.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:48 PM |
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Wobble?
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Last two frames of floater 1 show what appears to be our first north (actually more like wnw) wobble...wonder if she's thinking about making that turn soon...interestingly her Dvorak's remained at 5.5/5.5 so maybe she isn't strengthening...however, now that the bird has given the recon data...the pressure drop would certainly lead one to believe she's strengthening...Guess we'll know more at 5:00.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:50 PM |
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Re: Vortex Message
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948 seems more like strong Cat 3/Cat 4 than Cat 2. Perhaps they have not foundt the strongest winds yet
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:53 PM |
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Re: Wobble?
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If the pressure dropped how could it not be strenghting, aren't storms classified by their pressure? I hope she makes the turn soon, otherwise the northern leeward islands would be recked.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:57 PM |
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Re: Wobble?
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Wind increases usually lag behind pressure drops by about 6-8 hrs...it will take a little while before the winds respond to the lower pressure.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:58 PM |
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NHC Track
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I don't know if they'll make a major adjustment to the left, but based on those new model runs + their concern over the GFDL model run, they may move it a little bit back to the left. It has been going back and forth for the last few days, which is normal. Time will tell.
I checked out the UKMET run that was posted (by Phil I think?) and if that verfies than Florida is going to be one big mess. They still haven't finished cleaning up all the debris here, either...and there is plenty of it. It will be a knock-out punch for all three parts of the state -- east coast, west coast, inland and northern gulf coast of Florida.
Imagine all the people coming here for the end of the summer weekend...and how many more people will have to evacuate? Ok, well that's all speculation and I really shouldn't do that, but I can't help it.
I'm beginning to feel like Dorothy in Kansas. The 5pm & 11pm discussions will be very interesting. So will the new tracks. If it does speed up, we may be looking at trouble earlier than we thought.
Or not.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 07:58 PM |
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Pressure falls
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Yes, the pressure falls would indicate strengthening. Those are obtained with instrumentation on the plane and dropsondes, so I'd say that's much more reliable than the winds they found. As Alex said, maybe they haven't found the strongest winds yet. We'll know more at the 5:00. Hope Stacey Stewart gets to write it!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I posted this on the previous thread a few minutes ago before I realized a new thread was up and running...
Looking at the WV loop, the front appears to extend pretty far into the GOM, so why isn't it expected to pick up Frances and pull her N-NE like it did with Gaston and Hermine?
Did I miss this in an NHC discussion somewhere?
Allison
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: Pressure falls
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Is it just me or does it look like its moving more WNW ?
I agree .I hope that Stacey Stewart does the 5pm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:03 PM |
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Stairstepping and outflow
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Hey everyone, not willing to even try to project where this sucker is going to go. But it does look like the stairstepping has begun again. Also, earlier today the storm looked slightly 'scrunched' on the right and to the south. Now it seems outflow has resumed and the storms seems to be regaining a more symmetrical look. The dry air that had crept into the circulation also seems to be fairly well absorbed at this time, so I would presume the storm has reached it's weakest point for a while.
Question: Were the forecasters expecting an increase in the forward speed?
Thanks
Mark
(I really should register at some point, that way I can get nifty icon thingies next to me)
if you do and the reference for your handle is diablo, try to avoid the creatures that usually cast it. -HF
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:04 PM |
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Re: Pressure falls
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Well, time will tell, but for now, unfortunatly, i believe it's a wobble, as it has trended back west again.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:06 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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II have been lurking on the board for a few years now and want to say I really appreciate all the talent that is brought here. It is the only place I feel that I get accurate info. TWC just doesn't "send the message" as far as I am concerned.
The question i have now, is where should people go if they want to start evacuating just "in case". I live in Stuart and don't think that there is anyplace in Florida that looks good. Any thoughts?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: Pressure falls
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We need to start a Stewart fan club. He does the best job with the discussion of all of them. Gives reasons why he thinks things are going the way they are. I like that.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:09 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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The last bit I'll mention about this storm...
The FSU Superensemble tracks are beginning to be very consistent from run to run. According to the head guy, when that happens...watch out.
It's converging on the Miami area.
Just something to watch.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:11 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I don't want to start a mass evac. but it's to early to tell, we don't know what direction and angle the storm is going to be coming in on, so for now you'll just have to wait until we can get a better grip on the forecast.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:12 PM |
Re: NHC Track
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The NHC has been trending their track between the GFS and UKMET on Frances. I find it interesting that both of those on the last run are in agreement as to the future track. There is no in between ground now for the NHC. Both tracks have it in South FL thru Tampa and into the Panhandle. Worst case scenario for the the state if that happens. If that track comes to fruition, there will be no safe place to go in FL. Not wishcasting here either. I don't want this sucker anywhere near me. I plan on playing golf on Monday and watching the Noles beat the Canes Monday night, so Frances kindly move on down the line!
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:12 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:
II have been lurking on the board for a few years now and want to say I really appreciate all the talent that is brought here. It is the only place I feel that I get accurate info. TWC just doesn't "send the message" as far as I am concerned.
I'd go North into Western Georgia or Alabama. Not along the coastline
The question i have now, is where should people go if they want to start evacuating just "in case". I live in Stuart and don't think that there is anyplace in Florida that looks good. Any thoughts?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:12 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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As far as evacuations, it depends on where it hits, angles, etc. Usually, a safe bet is north and west, panhandle area, for short term. But, every situation warrents a different evacuation pattern.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:13 PM |
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Gaston and Hermine
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Hermine looks like it could be on the coast of Rhode Island or Massachussetts by 8pm tonight
Also, Gaston could be back over water by 11pm, and if that happens, it will likely go directly to TS because the nrl site has the intensity at 45 mph and 998 mb on the satellite page
wind and satellite data
I am still thinking that Frances will turn east very close to the Florida east coast as a Cat III
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:13 PM |
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Re: Pressure falls
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I met Mr Stewart when the P-3 came to Panama City earleri this year.. Couldn't have been a nicer more conjenial man. If there is a Stacy Stewart fan club, sign me up as President...I think he is one of the 3 best hurricane forecasters alive today, and may very well be the best one. He never fails to impress me.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:15 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Hmm..good question. Do you go south? North? My husband said that if that sucker comes near us, we're heading straight to my Mom's in north Georgia. I'm really pulling for South Dakota, myself.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:17 PM |
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Re: Gaston and Hermine
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So your saying LI will be hit with a tropical storm, with 45 mph winds it's eye will also come back into shape if it present on land.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:19 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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This site should sell I love Stacy Stewart Tshirts and use the money from them for the server cost
I started the Stewart talk, so I'm to blame for the responses, but let's stay on topic...Thanks!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:24 PM |
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Re: Pressure falls
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not a wobble...it has definitely moved to a 280 or so course...still mostly west for official purposes. The ULL influences are seen extending over Hispanola.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:24 PM |
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Re: Gaston and Hermine
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Gaston
Virginia seems to be under a Tropical Storm Warning
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:24 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Jeb Bush must be having nightmares. This is not meant as a joke or to be flippant, but it's what I heard on the radio about a week ago.
The local Lakeland radio newscaster was reporting that FEMA had arranged for 8,000 mobile homes to come to Florida. The newscaster ended the segment with this comment:
"This will be a relief for those left without homes or those needing temporary housing. Unless we have another hurricane."
I thought the same exact thing.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:28 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Yeah, that is horrible irony. People all around Florida just now starting to get back to normal have to batten down the hatches for a second major hurricane. It look well organized on satellite and poses a dangerous threat to everyone in Florida, and I don't even think that's exageration anymore.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:30 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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5pm is out
Hurricane center located near 19.5n 60.0w at 30/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 12 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 948 mb
And Still west
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Slight leftward shift at 5...with another sampling mission going on right now we should get some really good results from the evening modelling...
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:33 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Well, Frances is back up to 110kts, and is forecast to reach 120kts in about 72 hours, although the discussion does say that this is conservative. The satellite appearance is still not quite as impressive as a couple of days ago, but it looks formidable nevertheless.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:34 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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NHC five day
Look at Saturday
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:37 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Do not be surprised if that track shifts further south and west with time...
I fear this is a real headache for south FL...and POSSIBLY for those of us in the Panhandle longer term.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:40 PM |
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Start your supplys now.
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I was at the Lowes in Titusville today. I called at 1pm the truck was just arriving with 250 generators on it.
I went there at 4pm there where 25 left. The folks up here aren't playin.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:41 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:
Do not be surprised if that track shifts further south and west with time...
I fear this is a real headache for south FL...and POSSIBLY for those of us in the Panhandle longer term.
How far west on the central Gulf Coast could you see this storm moving ?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:45 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Too early to speculate, but I wouldn't think any further west than Mobile...but that is definately a WAG, not based on hard data.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:46 PM |
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Jason
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I know that here in Texas we will be spared of any effects from Frances but I wanted to get your input on something maybe forming in the central or western gulf in a few days. Do you think it is realistic?
ShawnS
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:49 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Oh sure… let’s move to Florida. The summers are a little hot, but the winters are fantastic! Let’s pick the center of the state so we don’t get hit by the brunt of any hurricanes…
Been here about 45 days (lurking at this site since February). We were made nervous by Bonnie. Took a slight slapping from Charley (the eye passed about 20 miles east of here) and now Frances looks like she wants to tangle. If Frances comes through Polk County, I’ll need to really reconsider my geographic preferences for permanent residence!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I am seeing forecaster invoking the "A" name. Please, not that. This is going to be a very stressful week. Best to prepare the sooner the better.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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Quote:
The last bit I'll mention about this storm...
The FSU Superensemble tracks are beginning to be very consistent from run to run. According to the head guy, when that happens...watch out.
It's converging on the Miami area.
Just something to watch.
That's just FSU afraid of the football game Monday night. They hope that if they tweak their model to show a Miami hit, the game will definitely be postponed until a later date. hahaha in all seriousness, I am still finding it hard to bite on a SE FL landfall. I just don't think the ridge is going to be strong enough. I keep hearing people at work draw comparisons to Andrew, but let's face it, the ridge that drove Andrew was the mother of all ridges. This ridging over Frances seems rather pedestrian, and probably won't build far enough west for a direct SE FL hit. Just my thought.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Are you predicting the ridge to strenghten? Why, because of the dry subsiding air that is being pushed over the ridge from Frances, or another reason.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: Gaston and Hermine
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Quote:
Hermine looks like it could be on the coast of Rhode Island or Massachussetts by 8pm tonight
Also, Gaston could be back over water by 11pm, and if that happens, it will likely go directly to TS because the nrl site has the intensity at 45 mph and 998 mb on the satellite page
wind and satellite data
I am still thinking that Frances will turn east very close to the Florida east coast as a Cat III
Hey Rabbit,
just a heads up. NRL has stopped updating Gaston at this point... the lastest NHC report had 30 MPH sustained winds, it's still hanging together, but it's certainly not what NRL has up there (of course if someone else wants to verify one way or another, feel free... just what I'm obserbing)
Thanks!
Mark
(still need to remember to register...)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:52 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Or go live in California with the earthquakes.............no warning at all with those.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:53 PM |
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Hebert's Box
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Frances officially makes it into Hebert's Box. Remember, almost every single major hurricane that went through that box ended up hitting S. FL. Almost every single one that didn't go through the box didn't hit S. FL. There are VERY FEW exceptions to this. The pattern has proven accurate for 9 out of every 10 storms that developed & hit Dade, Broward & Palm Bch. Counties.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:54 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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the utterly ironic thing is that this is the same name list as 1992
| rjp |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 08:55 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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That FSU Superensemble track has to be on target... I mean, any FSU fan (like myself) knows they can't play in the rain and win! (See Louisville, Miami, etc.) Let's hope this sucker stays out to sea... or atleast stays away from Miami. Rix needs to finally beat those guys.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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when do watches go up for se bahamas
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:04 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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1) Global models have a real tendency to underforecast ridges.
2) Large storms tend to reinforce ridges.
3) Cork in the stream...Frances won't be influenced as much by the outside synoptic forces as she will flow along with them, and modify them to some extent. Be very wary right now if you live anywhere between Hatteras and Mobile.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:08 PM |
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Hebert's Box
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For anyone out there who may not be familiar with Hebert's box, here's a link to some good info.
Hebert's Box
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:08 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Can a really large storm create a lot of its own weather conditions?
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:09 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I’ll need to really reconsider my geographic preferences for permanent residence
I'd like to tell you that you get used to it, but we have never had a month of August like this before, Every single piece of sand has been threatened in about 30 days by one storm or another. I can't recall this ever happening before. You're really in what was a pretty safe area, until this year.
18Z GFDL is a space coast hit and rides the east coast right into my backyard. Never have liked that model.
We are almost at this point:
A) East coast of FL, across the state, into the NE GOM.
B) East coast of FL, rides just inland or just along the coast.
C) A complete recurve, misses FL, Carolina bound.
At 5PM the discussion said this:
THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.
Here in Jax Frances is leading the local newscasts top stories. Option C is not being considered here. The word is getting out that it's still 5 days+ away, but get ready, could be a huge problem.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:14 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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All storms no matter what their size create weather, I think you need to restate you question.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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JoePub
Did you post here during Isabel last year?
Redbird, you should really join CFHC -- then you could send joepub a PM. The main boards are not for posts like this. Thank you.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Not create as such, but certainly modify existing conditions such that the influence of them changes. It is said that big storms "create their own weather"...not exactly accurate, but they don't respond the same as "regular" weather systems.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:25 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Jason, could you give us your thoughts on the ull in central bahamas and its influence on the ridge and Frances path?
Thanks
Hurric
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:25 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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gee did not mean to offend.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:26 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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"Hard to see the dark side is isn't it?" Just like yoda says in star wars, its with the model runs with weather.
I waited till the new thread came out to give out my 3 and 5 day forcasts for Frances. Pretty close to track I have this from 3 days back, maybe just a tad slower but still going on to my around 21N and 70W. I have that there in 2 days. Day 3 in se Bahamas around 22.5N and 74.5W. Day 4 25N and 78.5 W and finally Day 5 near 27.5N and 81W. Again from points each way it could be anywhere from 50miles each side on day 3 I forcast and on days 4-5 up to 100miles each side. So everyone from Key Largo N could be affected.
Why is this my forcasted position? Dynamics in the atmosphere with water vapor showings and model runs continue to support this direction. As I mentioned to Hank on here I dont see a strong trough like Floyd encounterd to pull this NNW until it gets past day 5. NHC also notes this now. Now in near term, a general W path with WNW wobbles should continue into tomorrow with the afternoon becoming more WNW around the extreme SW side of the ridge over the Atlantic. By day 3 (Thurs) the question on where it goes will happen. This is due to the ridge placement, strength, and position of the hurricane. With a trough expected to develop over the central U.S and dive southward on days 3-4 the ridge over the atlantic might extend more W into the SE and mid Alantic states. This would cause a path more WNW (as I expect) just SE florida and up or across the state. The trough will continue slowly E into the eastern U.S. down to the lower miss valley and gulf coast by day 5 allowing more NW then N movement. This is by days 5 thru 7 as all can see in GFS model runs. Now currently ahead of Frances there is a upper trough in the bahamas moving w and should weaken but it will also help influence the outflow of Frances and also helping the wnw motion. If the upper trough stays alittle stonger then forcasts and/or slows down, it could during days 2-3, turn Frances more NW and the models will adjust to that. That is possible i should note but not favored.
So for now as posted above that is my placements and threatning the SE coast of florida by late Friday night. Storm could still by day 5 then eigther parrel the coast from WPB up to Daytona or come inland and N of Tampa later day 6, but I wont go out no more then sending it or coming close to WPB for Sat. Will post new forcast on weds. scottsvb
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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A question: just how big is this storm? Is it a compact storm like Andrew, the size of Charley or Floyd? I'm just wondering because if it stays on the path (which is going to change slightly from day to day) it's on now, wouldn't the worst weather be on the north side of the storm as it passes through the state? Or is that a mute point at this time?
I DEFINITELY don't like the "THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA" part of the discussion.
People here are taking this storm extremely seriously. As they should.
Speaking of storms, we're getting a nasty one right now. I'm really hoping this cancels football practice.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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The ULL at this point is aiding Frances, along with a TUTT behind it, by creating ventilation for the top of the storm. I don't see anything about the ULL that should really impact the track.
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:45 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Sorry, explain ... thought it would provide some shear or disruption in the outflow when it gets closer??
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:46 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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It's pacing Frances, so it's not getting any closer...plus it is weakening as well...
JK
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:52 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I'm in Orlando.
SOS..........
I think we are in for a horrible event.
Does anyone see a scenario that turns this storm prior to Florida landfall?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:56 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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If it slows down there is that opportunity it may parallel the East Coast of Florida and on to the Carolinas.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 09:58 PM |
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isnt it leading it a bit..
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seems its following the ULL a bit as well
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:01 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Excellent discussion here NOT focusing on any specific points for landfall, contrary to some TV coverage in Orlando. Just rec'd a call that one station is getting viewers in a tizzy about a hit on Cape Canaveral.
Thanks for your reference to Hebert's Box - solid rule of thumb info to know.
As for models, I'm sure we all remember how the models kept trending left of Charley's actual track, but still within "the cone of concern."
Area around P.R. is famous for TUTT effects - remember how Andrew weakened, then strengthened again E. of Bahamas?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:03 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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The coast of Florida is going to get hit. The only variable is how hard. The west side of Frances could hit it, or the entire thing could.
By Wednesday/Thursday, you'll know if you need to evacuate or not. If you wait until Friday to evacuate, you are going to have to drive to Tennessee to get a motel room.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Colleen, that's a good point and I'd liketo know if the storm will enlarge windfield wise or stay pretty much the same. If it came in on the current forecasted track (theory now) I will be near the NE eyewall (I'm at 28N/80.3W) but if it came in at Ft. Lauderdale will I be safe here. I figure TS winds extend out to 140 miles from the center, so thats about 280 miles total coverageeither side of the center (duh). But will that size increase in 4 - 5 days??? Good Question.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:06 PM |
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NHC Track
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You can't expect to know the specific point for landfall even within the 3 days prior to landfall. It has to be very close, hours, of the event.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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It still appears to be a Floyd-type track, with a turn north while still offshore--the ULL is still there and Frances is now moving faster while the upper low is moving the same speed.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:15 PM |
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Dont forget the Bahamas!
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Hey guys,
i konw a lot of the attention will focus on the possible FL landfall from Frances, or perhaps a more general SE US landfall, and i would expect that to be honest. However, dont forget that Frances will be tracking along the Bahamas before it gets to the US! These islands are small, low, and less able to withstand such a storm. These islands should really be preparing now and getting as geared up as possible, as Frances looks to strengthen, and sweep the majority of the islands too. Its not just a community that could become isolated when Frances tears through, no, rather the whole island(s) - as if they arent isolated enough!
Of course, Frances looks set to hammer at least part of the US SE coast, and it is looking increasingly likely that it will be a FL coast event. More people are here in more concentrated numbers than in the Bahamas, and more potential for damage, devastation, and loss of life!
Hermine also loks set to give parts of Mass a glancing blow, but nothing too serious.
Interestingly too, Gaston has maintained itself as a seperate entity, and looks as if he will move back over the Atlantic waters tonight. Could be something else worth watching too.
Kind regards as always.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:26 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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floyd was turned by a trof dug into the southeast. there will be no trof this year.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:26 PM |
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|
things to worry about
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no good news today.
frances is intensifying today.. eyewall contraction cycles and less subsidence/vertical shear to fend off.. giving it a nudge back to the way it was when recon found it. ought to be back to cat 4 tomorrow. moving forward a little faster.. expected.
i'm going to keep my landfall window between palm beach and beaufort.. with emphasis between daytona and brunswick.. as a 3/4 on late saturday/early sunday.. still not going to pinpoint.. not until tomorrow afternoon at earliest.
still seeing the dynamics for the stair-step and terminal leftward bend.
other stuff in the basin too.. nowhere near as scary, but there. gaston has maintained an excellent system aloft, and should reintensify to a tropical storm when it moves offshore tonight. the binary interaction i was expecting with what became hermine is in the end happening in a manner.. the lower pressure of hermine has probably helped guide gaston harder to the right than previously forecast. should trace NE as a weak tropical storm (waters too cool to reintensify much).. and pass a little south of nantucket tomorrow night.
hermine shot out ahead of its cdo today and is barreling northward to an AM landfall in eastern new england.. likely a nonconvective or convection-removed depression at the time.. small chance it's a weak tropical storm. my take is nhc didn't need the t.s. warnings after all.
97L (should be 99L.. 97L was gaston) in the eastern atlantic near the cape verde islands.. has a well defined low with some convection. it is probably a tropical depression.. and should be within a couple of days. it's circulation envelope extends westward quite a bit and has another maxima near 33w.
there is a surface disturbance developing in the itcz at 9n/38w.. models havent picked up on it yet.. but this may turn into something too.. hard to say based on it's low latitude the imminent closure of 97L.
globals still hinting at a low development south of the miss. delta over the next couple of days. surface convergence beneath a weak upper shortwave ridge is the setup here. would probably move little at first if it actually develops, then maybe turn nw if a more defined low were to form. still hypothetical and low probability.
the next wave slated to emerge also has globals trying to develop it. september should start out like august ended.
and that's the very long story of the tropics. hell of a lot going on. hope the site can handle all the traffic that's going to be on.
HF 2226z30august
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:28 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Wonder why the NHC is not saying a turn north while still offshore?
I think she'll turn north but not until it bumps into the big sandpile called Florida.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:28 PM |
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Re: Dont forget the Bahamas!
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Not looking so great for Florida right now. I kind of like to focus in the on the Orlando area because I take residence there. I expect the majority of Florida to get a rather nasty taste of Frances due to its large size-I can't rule out hurricane force winds extending outward by 110-120 miles by the time the storm nears the Bahamas. I can feel this one coming on already. Frances looks remarkable on satellite images this evening.
The NHC track looks pretty darn good to me at this point. Barring any MAJOR changes, you can pretty much expect tweaks in the track forecast throughout the next few days. Another scary point-NHC stated in the 5 PM discussion that the intensity forecast could be "conservative".
Good grief...
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:36 PM |
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Frances
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Nothing to concentrate on at the moment, save for Frances. Everything else takes a back seat...kinda like triage. When you have a cat 4-5 barreling in on the U.S. mainland, who cares about a wave tomorrow?...
I still think the hurricane will stay generally west...a little north to that. Not sure about the latitude HankFrank is guessing on..though his expertise is miles above mine. I go on hunches based on what I am seeing, and reading....he goes on sound scientific principles...
so keeping things simple....
Miami, as a cat 4-5...then onto Mobile for more Insurance company walloping action...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:43 PM |
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Re: Frances
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rickonboat, you'd be surprised how many hunches i go on. i'm staying right of the official because with stronger storms the forecast error usually goes that way.. especially when a gently curving path for several days is given.
and yeah i know not many people care about what else is going on in the basin when a bigun has its sights on the u.s... but i have a hunch that in a few days one or two of the features i mentioned will matter to somebody.
HF 2243z30august
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:46 PM |
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Good Grief Indeed!
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Well the models are in great agreement so far into the Bahamas .Yikes....i figure at the very least we will get hurricane force winds here in Ft. Lauderdale. I could be wrong. Well if the storm has to come here or this area I have a couple of requests. 1) come during the day: I would at least like to watch the destruction while I am fortified in my house. 2) don't take my roof please: I know that is a silly request from a Cat 4/5 storm but what the heck. 3) please don't stay around too long: we have to clean up your mess!
Good luck everyone in the Bahamas and SE Florida the next couple of days during your supply shopping spree and your sweat filled shutter hanging party. Now where are the keys to the Florida Shield generator...darn...i knew i forgot something this year.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:48 PM |
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Ah-hem...
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>>> Nothing to concentrate on at the moment, save for Frances. Everything else takes a back seat
Not everyone on these boards lives below the mason-dixon line...while I don't expect Gaston do reform into anything more than perhaps a weak TS, it is spawning at last count, 9 tornadoes in VA, and could spell some real flooding troubles for the Delmarva, then Joisey, LI and the New England colonies. Sure, Frances is occupying all of our minds (mine included), but don't say there's nothing going on. As HF opined a few posts earlier, there is the potential for a Fujiwara-type interaction between Hermine & Gaston, albeit over too-cool-to-support-development SSTs, but still, huge flooding could be a problem.
That being said, I'm not going to pick a potential bullseye until Wednesday at the earliest, though my original call for Hattaras is probably going to be a crow munching spectacular. Not that I haven't had those before. One thing I do believe will happen, no matter where Frances eventually landfalls, is that this will recurve and spell potential trouble for the entire east coast. I do not think for one moment that this will cross the peninsula and get into the gulf. In fact, I'm still not 100% certain of a FL landfall, although there is not one shred of evidence to dictate anything to the contrary. Just a gut hunch I get with these CV longtrackers. I've been proven wrong many times before, so it's no big deal. We'll know with a fairly confident certainty, on Wednesday. As it is, everyone from Key West to Portland ME needs to keep an eye on this. Anyone in the space coast region especially, but everyone.
Then we've got what should be 99L (97L) to think about, plus some possible homegrown mischief in the GOM, but those are for the future. Gaston...Hermine...still making some mischief for some.
Let's hope the site can handle the hits come later on in the week....
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:54 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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IF, and only IF...there were no Frances...all the other mischief would occupy our minds. That is why I mentioned triage. Sorry if I offended anyone being impacted or is currently suffering with the other players out there...
however, nuttin quite like the feeling of taking it on the chin via a cat 4-5....
they tend to cause CATASTROPHIC damage...
I went through a strong 3.....
a 4-5 will be a nightmare...sorry for Miami....they better get ready....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 10:57 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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Any kind of action in the Orlando/Kissimmee region would a nightmare as many are still without roofs and have totaled out yards.. our overall resistance in the state is down.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:04 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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As LI phil said the remmants of Gaston could produce very intense downpours, there is a cold front to our east that will generate convection cell thunderstorms and rain, cold fronts and tropical mositure just don't work, like electric and water. Also the threat for tornados is still possibly as moves into the penisula and LI. We still have time for Frances, lets focus on the current systems impacting our lives.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:07 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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Watching in Miami. Don't like the trends. (Who in Florida would?) Don't like surface analysis for 72 hours out.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USNatio...mp;prodnav=none
Don't like wording in last discussion.
Said before.. if it doesnt veer nnw along the coast would be a big problem for wpb/melbourne.
That being said...for the first time on local news I saw a 3rd scenario where the high is strong as in 72 hour pic and it pushes storm through straits and north coast of cuba. First time Ive seen anyone give that one.
As much as I said WPB/melbourne.. my confidence in my own words is real low
Think we have surprises in store from Frances and not good ones.
Hope I'm wrong.
Hear all the holding to SC line but... its getting harder and harder to see how its going to get up there from this vantage tonight after it went so far west so fast and there won't be much of a path from Gaston/Hermine left in 3 says.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:10 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:
I think she'll turn north but not until it bumps into the big sandpile called Florida.
Scary thought.. I really hope we don't see her come ashore, hook right, and continue right up the middle of the state.
If I read your message correctly, are you suggesting a more northery turn like the current UKMet model suggests?
A Cat3 with Tampa/St. Pete on the west side as she moves to the Gulf could cause major flooding problem here. I haven't seen any models suggesting the impact of such a case - just general models showing a cain coming in off the Gulf. But Josephine in 1996 (5.5' surge) is one I remember with a ton of flooding. I would guess Frances could easily top 5.5' of surge here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:25 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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I don't see much of a path from Gaston right *now*, much less 3 days. I wouldn't say it won't go more northerly, but does it look like the hard right is going to be there?
I was skeptical about it at first, but the high seems to be really taking shape. I guess the major question now is, will it build a little further west, and put Miami/Ft. Lauderdale under the gun?
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:34 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Well, as if Atlanta didn't have enough bad news today, Glenn Burns the meterologist from WSB-TV was saying at 6:55pm ET that Frances was going to come on shore in C. Florida, roll up through Florida and South Ga and end up over Atlanta by late Sunday or early Monday.
TWC's cone at 730pm was showing that it could make landfall on the southern end near Miami on Saturday night and possibly Sunday evening if it hits in SC....
As Homer J Simpson says....D'Oh!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:35 PM |
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Re: things to worry about
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Quote:
globals still hinting at a low development south of the miss. delta over the next couple of days.
HF -- can you point me to this?
Thanks!
Allison
there's a weak trough there, and convection blows up on it every afternoon just lately. eta has been developing a weak surface low along it for a couple of days and moving it ashore in lousiana.. but as there is no persistent convection development looks quite unlikely. -HF
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:44 PM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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Although several days out, it looks as though Frances has her eyes on some type of Florida strike. There is not much I can see that will change that. After just having gone through Charley, any hit from Frances will probably spell major disaster to our state's main infrastructure. We still have mountains of storm debris...all of which could become "flying objects"...what an untimely mess...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:47 PM |
|
ULL off Yucatan
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There looks to be an ULL just NE of the yucatan. Could this have any effects on the ULL that ya'll have been talking about which would then effect Frances?
ShawS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:48 PM |
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Re: ULL off Yucatan
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That should say ShawnS on the above post
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:50 PM |
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What is happening to the eye?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:53 PM |
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San Juan Hurr Statement
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If your up for some reading, you can get some good stuff from the San Juan hurricane statement. Covers everything going on in the northern islands, which happen to have this monster above them.
San Juan statement
Antigua airport dropped 3mb in a 4 hour period, St. Martin 3mb in a 5 hour period. TS effects possible for the islands, even at this distance, which is starting to close hourly.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:53 PM |
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Re: What is happening to the eye?
|
Current Weather Conditions:
Vc Bird International Airport Antigua, Antigua and Barbuda
(TAPA) 17-07N 061-47W 10M
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Aug 30, 2004 - 06:00 PM EDTAug 30, 2004 - 05:00 PM CDTAug 30, 2004 - 04:00 PM MDTAug 30, 2004 - 03:00 PM PDTAug 30, 2004 - 02:00 PM ADTAug 30, 2004 - 01:00 PM HDT
2004.08.30 2200 UTC
Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TAPA 302200Z 33010KT 9999 SCT020 BKN270 29/24 Q1011 SLT HZ
I think this station is about 180 miles away?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:55 PM |
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Re: ULL off Yucatan
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If you registered you could edit your own posts, and you could still post when they shut down unregistered posts during busy periods.
Bill
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 30 2004 11:56 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Oh Heck...the problem I am now faced with is which direction to plan my evacuation? Everything else is falling together with boarding up and supplies. My landlord said he started searching for wood at 8am in Merritt Island and went as far north as Titusville and south to Melbourne with no wood or the snap ons left anywhere. Supplies are being held until they get a better handle on the hit area and then they will be shipping in the wood and such to those areas for boarding up. Thank goodness i still had my wood from floyd. I was planning on heading south west. Hotels are already booked going north, Ga, Alabama, already filling up. So....where do you go to get into the safest area?? Any ideas?
I urge everyone in the area, on the east coast, get ready now. You will certainly be doing yourselves and your families the best to figure on a hit, prepare for a hit, and if it does not happen, dance happily. Its only supplies, not lives.
God speed everyone.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:00 AM |
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Re: Ah-hem...
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Quote:I not only tend to agree, and sympothise, I also share it living on the East side of Orlando. I'd invite you to my place of shelter, but living in a mibile home, I don't expect it would do either of us much good. Charley got 10 trailers, Frances will likely clear the rest. My boss' home in S. Orlando stood up well, so I'm gonna honker down is his garage with my belongings and hope it keeps its' roof this time. We should physically survive, me and my cat, but I have a real feeling this will be a sellers market for anyone that has any places to stay left standing to sell. FEMA mentioned 8000 trailers to help the homeless from Charley...It had better have 3-4 times more ready to go after Frances gets her shot. I hope it does NOT make it here, but I'd be deluding myself If I said I believe it won't. It hasn't happend yet, might not, but I will say I have my generator and batteries already in my likely new residence....moved them today 'cause they are too big and heavy to do at the last minute. This tin box survived the Eye of Charley, but even a glancing blow from Francis might well be the preverbial straw. If the data on Wednesday looks anything like it does now, I'm outta here for thicker walls. Darned...we just got power back the other day too....shoot!
Although several days out, it looks as though Frances has her eyes on some type of Florida strike. There is not much I can see that will change that. After just having gone through Charley, any hit from Frances will probably spell major disaster to our state's main infrastructure. We still have mountains of storm debris...all of which could become "flying objects"...what an untimely mess...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:01 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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If I were a forecaster at NHC, I'd always pick the worst case scenario, warning the most people possible.
But, my guess for Frances: turns north and mostly misses the US. I live in the mountains and I don't wanna see that blowhard up here! I hope I'm right....
If ya live in Florida and believe it's coming at ya... get ready. Godspeed. Tell everyone ya know... People get ready, for the cane's a'coming.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:03 AM |
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Re: What is happening to the eye?
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There seems to be yet another eye replacement, as shown by the concentric eye, a brief period of weakening, then I predict some serious strenghtening tom, as it leaves behind the shear.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:08 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Much too early to make that deicision, unless you just head to some place like Kansas.
However I would not try and go South, because there are just so many people here that will need to get out if the track shifts left, and you will be caught up in the biggest evacuation in history. But given the current track, and possible shifts of that track, there is no state in the SE US with a coastline that is 100% safe. Also SW of you is heading into the Charley path, not a good place to try and find shelter.
I know this sounds kind of lame, but just chill out and wait a couple of days.
Bill
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:09 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ESTIMATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.
Wow, coupled with an eyewall replacement cycle, we are gonna see some serious shtuff tomorrow.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:12 AM |
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Re: What is happening to the eye?
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If you need plywood, there are plenty of candidate signs around. Come tomorrow if you know who lost the primary elections I don’t think they will mind if you clean up there signs. Just joking , better ask before you take!
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:13 AM |
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Charley vs Frances
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thought I would go back and look at how the NHC handled Charley five days out, and then when they actually nailed the right spot at the right time.
Unfortunately, Charley did not have an advisory five days before it hit Port Charlotte, so I looked at their four day forcast. The NHC forcasted it to be at 19 N 81.5 W, or approximately 350 miles south of Fort Myers, at 8 a.m. on Friday August 13.
per the closest advisory, the storm was actually at 25.2 N 82.8W.
On tuesday morning, the NHC called for the hurricane to be in the middle of the gulf in five days. Finally, by Tuesday afternoon, Charley was thought to hit Florida in the panhandle.
Finally, by Wednesday, the NHC said in three days it would hit the west coast of Florida.
Now, here's my thoughts. The NHC isn't kidding when it says its average error is 350 miles on five days out. Charley is a tough analogy, because five days before landfall, it was just a depression and Frances is a full-blown hurricane.
But the point of this excersise was to say that while it has Vero Beach in the bullseye now, a 350 mile error could put it in Cuba and miss the US all together. We just don't know.
I looked at Isabel when it became a 110 kt hurricane. The five-day forcast: 20N 63 W.
The actual five day location: 22.6 N 62.6 w. That's a lot closer.
They also kept Isabel at 125 knots. Actual windspeed: 140knts.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:14 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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oh great...however, based on the forcast intensity estimates...this is what we have been expecting...hope for something to appear that will push this storm out to sea...Florida just can't deal with this now...
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:15 AM |
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Re: NHC Track *DELETED*
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Post deleted by BillD
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:17 AM |
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site trouble
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is the nrl site failing to come up on anyone else's computer?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:19 AM |
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Re: What is happening to the eye?
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Don't want to get off topic here but that's true, I wouldn't even venture into the city today even, us (LI Phil and me) are very worried about the fate of the city. I bet there's so much plywood that you could build a block full of plywood houses, just joking they'll keep them so they can stick up on their lawns, I bet.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:23 AM |
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Frances Locally
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All 3 major W.P.B. tv stations have gone to updates on Frances every hour on the hour. Almost everyone in my neighborhood was cutting tree branches down this evening to put out in tomorrow's trash pickup. The stores are starting to get crazy. People went to work this morning seeing the track shift eastward over the Atlantic and came home tonight seeing it bend back towards them. One station this morning even went as far as saying it looks much better this morning than it did yesterday, looks like we will be lucky. I guess they are already eating their crow within 12 hours of that statement. Way too early to tell people stuff like that.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:In the increasingly likely event that almost any of the 'somewhere in Florida' tracks including the current NHC forecast pan out, plus or minus a hundred miles, this just in:
Oh Heck...the problem I am now faced with is which direction to plan my evacuation?
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
That means essentially the entire state will see hurricane force winds...this babe is 140 miles across in the windy zone and 280 miles in the breezy zone. If it does hit MLB, Orlando and Tampa will already both be experiencing hurricane winds and points south to about FLL would probably feel them also. A miss to the East of a hundred miles would still allow ORL and JAX to get 74+ winds not to mention the 'worlds most famos beach', the oldest city in the US (they say) and of course, the home of the shuttle. Someone today at work said 'that is a bit negative isn't it Mr. C.' I said, no, it's not negative, I'm positive the brown muschey stuff is gonna hit the fan, and we don't even need the fan.
Someone asked a bit ago, "Where can I evacuate to?". I'm sorry, it really looks like unless you have friends in Texas, you could have Frances stuck to your posterior from NY to LA depending on track. There really isn't a good answer except to start looking now for high ground, away from water and in a building with good construction and thick walls, have plenty of candles and non-perishable food on hand (and tied down), and most of all, several gallons of drinkable water per person. Water, drinking water, may be the most valuable item after shelter. Medicine, pet food, clothing and blankets could come in handy for a lot of people within 50-100 miles of wherever it comes ashore. Oy yeah, and pray, if you believe it will help, that no tornados touch your hiding hole. ... and do it yesterday, not waiting till everything is sold out. Oh, and don't forget the stinkin' can opener!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:29 AM |
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News Hype
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All you Floridians should watch out for other people, right now people are on there wits ends I bet, if I where you I would leave the state, move to upstate New York and never have to worry about these things again, but then again you aren't me. Be prepared, and if this Hurricane becomes a CAT 5, what happened today with the media hype will become nothing more than a minor nuisance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:33 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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The Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 180 miles,that's what the latest advisory said ,that's not good!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:33 AM |
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NRL, RNC
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Bugs, both my main link to the NRL & my FNMOC backup are down...can't imagine why.
>>> I wouldn't even venture into the city today even, us (LI Phil and me) are very worried about the fate of the city.
While I agree with the first part of your statement, about not venturing into the City (dats what we Lon Guylanders call it), I'm not particularly worried about the fate of the city. RNC, US Open Tennis (which is right next to Shea Stadium), local baseball...what a mess.
Coupla things, as long as I'm posting. I'm not too confident in much with this storm (Frances), but I am pretty confident of two things. US Mainland Strike and eventual recurvature (ie no Gulf mischief). Whether she recurves prior to a Florida landfall is the $50 billion question. For all you under the gun, I sure hope it does recurve, but then you're just shifting the danger further north. However, since FL has already taken a CAT IV this year, I vote we shift the danger north.
Second, this storm will definitely regain CAT IV status...question is...what status will it be at as landfall nears? That too is the $50 billion question. As rickonboat stated earlier, CAT IV's can be catastrophic (I didn't know that), and the damage inflicted is not additive but multiplicative.
Until Wednesday at the earliest, all we can do is watch and wait (and for anyone under the gun, PREPARE!). I'm sure NHC will slightly shift tracks with each update. Listen to them...they are the experts. Gas up the vehicle, batten down the hatches, whatever you need to do...
And last but not least, as long as we're bashing Frances, did you know that Maginot means "Welcome" in French?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: NRL, RNC
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If a CAT 5 comes through Florida, which is not out of the question it would cause much more damage then a CAT 4, because the strength of wind is doubled by it's square or something along those lines.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: NRL, RNC
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
I don't know if that's what your looking for, but it works for me. By the way, great editorial/commentaries Ricreig and LI Phil. A bit of comic relief in this unfolding greek tragedy is greatly accepted.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: NRL, RNC
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NRL site working for me here.
I think it is too early to tell. Still a chance that the rdige builids even stronger and pushes Frances south of the Keys, not likely, but possible.
Bill
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:44 AM |
Re: NRL, RNC
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just went to lowes on amelia island they recvd 48 generators today and they were flying out of there tonight and will all be gone tomorrow. also mayport naval station has notified all crews of inport ships to cancel all weekend time off. this maybe the real deal our luck up here has been too good.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:45 AM |
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Re: NRL, RNC
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seems to have gone out for about 10 minutes
btw, is it me, or is Frances looking more ragged on satellite imagery?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
also, go to nhc
Gaston is now a tropical storm again
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:47 AM |
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He's baaaackkk....
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Gaston's back -- the NHC put out a 7pm update to say that they will be issuing the next advisory on the storm, as opposed to the HPC, at 11pm. Their webpage now references Tropical Storm Gaston yet again, as opposed to Tropical Depression Gaston. I think the center is trying to reform a bit further north, nearest the strongest convection south of the D.C. area, and would not be surprised to see a minimal tropical storm for a day or two over the Atlantic.
Other topics of interest -- Hermine is basically shooting out from it's convection and well on it's way to being declassified. Don't think it has too much longer before it's done -- and I'm not even sure it'll make much of an extratropical system either.
Frances is the big topic, and one on which I'm going to ignore the FSU football posts here as they aren't relevant. If the storm goes through here, the game just gets moved to later in the season...and no, the model here has no "football coefficient." In any case, the storm is going through a minor period of flux while the new, larger eye gets itself together. Later tonight or tomorrow morning, I expect we'll see a storm looking a lot like Isabel did last year with a large eye (last recon reported a 45mi eye), albeit at a weaker intensity. For now though, it has been obscured.
The upper low to it's west is retrograding to the west and I expect it to either dissipate or, at the least, not have a major influence on the storm; right now, the ridge is building in around it. The trough to the west may be held up just a bit by Gaston, assuming it lingers around a bit. It will pick up Frances at some point -- but when is the big key. Frances still could miss the coast entirely, but that possibility is growing slimmer by the hour. The GFDL keeps trending west, the AVN is still pretty far south, and the UKMET takes the storm in over Miami and then up Apalachee Bay -- not a good scenario. Coupled with the FSU Superensemble model I referenced before and talks with some people here, I feel like Florida is very much under the gun from this one. Everyone up and down the coast needs to be wary, but those in Florida - east, west, and Gulf coasts - need to pay close attention. Model consensus right now says Cape Canveral and the Superensemble says north Miami. Intensity? Most models are near the cat3/4 level in 5 days, with a peak just before then. In other words, this could be the first year since 1916 - and first unambiguous year since before 1900 - with two U.S. landfall cat. 4+ storms.
In other words -- stay tuned.
The invest off of Africa is decently organized, but it's pretty far to the north and I think the mid and low-level circulations may well be separated by a few degrees of latitude -- that or the thing shooting west ahead of the main convection is a figment of my imagination. It's got developmental potential, but is most likely one for the fish and not something that will develop rapidly (if much at all). If it doesn't do it soon, it'll meet it's demise in the westerlies near 20°N. The wave just off of Africa has more potential to be a long-tracker; the GFS particularly likes it, while other models pick up on something out there. We are near the peak of the season, so anything's possible.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:50 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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No...Bill..I don't think waiting until Wednesday is lame at all. I was telling everyone at work (since they know I read and post this forum) to wait until Wednesday then I might tell you something. It is better to wait and watch rather than to cause what might be unecessary panic. Not to make lite' of everyones concerns, but we have a couple of days. Let the professionals guide you in your evacuation plan. And be careful even at that. Charley fooled a few out there in the 11th hour. With Frances fluctuating in speed like today, the forecasted models will vary more than a storm that has a more consistant speed.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Glad to see the site back up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:05 AM |
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What's the spin...
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
over the Bahamas now, another low trying to form?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: What is happening to the eye?
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Quote:
If you need plywood, there are plenty of candidate signs around. Come tomorrow if you know who lost the primary elections I don’t think they will mind if you clean up there signs. Just joking , better ask before you take!
Those things have to be indestructible. I think every single one of the survived Charley!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Here is an email I received at 9:30 pm from a friend who is a meteorologist. What do you guys think of it?
Hurricane Francis seems to be experiencing less SW wind shear at this moment and eyewall reorganization/replacement seems to be finished for now, so she may be slowly strengthening again. As I forecasted though, it's pretty clear that she will be north of 20 deg. north latitude when she reaches 63 deg. west latitude. So at worst the northern Leeward Islands "will" experience tropical storm force wind gusts. She still has to fight some shearing though through approximately 70 deg. west longitude, so I do not expect rapid strengthening to a CAT 5 in the next few days.
I'm getting an enormous amount of email from old customers, friends, storm chasers and even foes but have really said little about Frances other then on a couple of hobby weather eGroups. BUT if I were still in business I would be warning customers of a better then 60% chance of landfall on the SE coast of Florida next weekend. A Miami to Fort Myers track or maybe a Ft. Lauderdale to Sarasota track, hard to say that far in advance. A landfall forecast error of under 200 miles would be pretty good this many days out.
I've looked at all of the models again today and I see a continuing westward track bias. But as most already know I feel that if you live by the model you die by the model. But if you ignore what the models say about an actual track for Frances and look at what weather systems are in place now and what's being progged at mid levels over mid latitudes in North America, it's a no brainer. My hoped for mid level weakness to be left behind by Hurricane Gaston and Tropical Storm Hermine will not linger or even exist. And the strong longwave trough will be out over the western U.S. and unable to eject shortwaves SE-E'ward due to strong ridging along the U.S. East Coast . Hurricanes turn NW into troughs when within approximately 10 deg. west longitude. So there is nothing to turn Frances NW-N east of Florida like I originally hoped for.
BUT what does a lower latitude more westward track mean if it continues to occur? The good news would be a close brush with Hispaniola and/or Cuba. This close brush would continue to inhibit Frances' growth to a CAT 5 cyclone, even knock her back to a CAT 3. Also like with CAT 4 Hurricane Charley coming ashore in SW Florida, speed divergence could pull Frances' eye wall onshore into one of the Great Antilles further disrupting the cyclone.
We can also hope for an unseen unprogged disturbance in the subtropical jet stream sneaking in under a dirty ridge to turn Frances NW-N east of Florida but that's unlikely.
A note though, last year while in semi retirement I committed to a similar forecast on Hurricane Isabel making a landfall on the east coast of Florida, when she reached approximately 22 N 60 W. At this time though Frances is at approximately 19.5 N 60 W, but that southerly difference in latitude can make all the difference. In any event last years forecast brought upon me a blistering attack by the media and colleagues. I was even accused of being obsessed and neurotic.
Once again though I add this disclaimer. As I've officially retired from space and atmospheric weather forecasting, confidence in my forecast of tropical cyclone path and intensity is lower as I no longer pay for real time raw weather forecasting products.
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: What's the spin...
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Upper level low...that has been discussed in previous posts.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:12 AM |
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Re: He's baaaackkk....
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Clark,
Great post as always. Since everyone else is talking about Frances, I'd rather comment on the rest. I did not think we had seen the last of Gaston, and think we might get 24-48 hours of a TS still. As far as the invest, I agree with you, and I don't think it is a figment of your imagination (either that or we are both imagining the same thing). This system is literally all over the map. It needs to get its act together or it isn't going to end up as anything.
Bill
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:13 AM |
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Re: NRL, RNC
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It will begin to weaken as the eye replacement cycle takes place, as the one eye is cut off and the new eye forms, it's like it sheding it's skin. Glad to see the site back up
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I live on South Merritt Island (between Melbourne and Cocoa Beach)...the house was built after the new March Hurricane code and was build to withstand 130 mph winds. I also added the heaviest aluminum panels for all coverings which are rated for Cat 5. The flood maps say it would take a Cat 5 to flood here as we are one of the higher locations on the island. My question is this...what threshold would you evacuate for...I am thinking about 110 to 120 mph. I am worried that we won't find somewhere to evacuate to and get caught on the road.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Its a valid worry. I spent a lot of time in Wachula after Charley and I know they have old Building codes but I saw brick buildings demolished.
I would leave if Frances approaches as a Cat 3 or better. Decide early and go. If Frances misses you then all you will have done is waste a little time and money.
My opinion.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I could see this thing doing like Hurricane Erin in 1995 (or Andrew). Going over South or Central Florida-and entering the gulf to make a second landfall.
It could hit FL then skim the coast up to the Carolinas.
Could miss Florida altogether and hit the Carolinas AKA Floyd?
Who knows?
I think it's going to stay South of where the track is and hit near the Florida Keys.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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The Florida Division of Emergency Mgmt. has a hurricane evacuation map available through their public mapping tool at:
http://public.mapping.floridadisaster.org/PublicMap/index.htm
You will have to zoom pretty close in on an area of interest to be able to check the "Evacuation Zone" map. You can also see storm surge maps for the coastal zones as well.
For instance, the Merritt Island area is rated, in parts, at Cat 5 storm surge, but the entire area is rated as evacuation for a Cat 1 storm. It's entirely up to the person there to make the final decision, but knowing that area at least somewhat well, I'd be inland if a storm was threatening - at least in Cocoa or Melbourne or someplace off of the islands.
The map is a pretty useful tool for those of you in Florida; if you get a chance, check it out. It requires you to install a plug-in from Autodesk, but it's not spyware or anything (for those worried about that).
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I live in Titusville, and if this thing brings wind less than 90 mph, I'll be going on my thirteenth storm chase
the first were:
TS Jerry 1995, 40 mph (not technically a "chase", but i consider it one because on teh bus ride home from school I got a few pics
Coastal storm, March 1996, 60 mph (parents drove)
Bertha, 1996 at beach after storm missed
Earl 1998-outer bands
Georges, 1998-outer bands (from north Titusville)
Mitch, 1998--65 mph winds at concrete/metal pier at Jetty Park near Cocoa Beach
Floyd, 1999-60 mph, morning after
Irene, 1999-morning at peak 65 mph
Gabrielle, 2001, 60 mph
Henri, 03--actually walked because the wind was only 30 with very light rain
severe storm, 6-7-04, Melbourne to Titusville, first I drove in
Hurricane Charley, 85mph, first hurricane Ive chased on my own
dont really know if my several attempts from my car to photograph lightning count as storm chases
If Frances brings winds higher than 90mph I'll be doing all the chasing form inside my house
(I am certain the winds will not exceed 100mph)
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:43 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I have to laugh at how ill prepared I am for this season and how glad I'm not in Florida. I live in a sea level house whose streets flood (my driveway/carport is 1' below street level). We moved last September so outside of my first aid kit, I don't have a clue where any of my other supplies are: hatchet, flashlights, etc. I have no emergency batteries. I have no reserves of water. I own no plywood. My house is surrounded by old pecan and oak trees. I don't have cigs or booze in reserve. We don't own a generator. I've been slacking. We don't even have any ice or charcoal. LMAO. Use me as the 2004 poster child for what happens when you don't prepare even though I've got a feeling I'll be heading out to the supply store sometime in the next 3 weeks to cover my a$$. But Plywood isn't an option. I have too many windows and wouldn't have the time to deal with it anyway.
Poor me? Poor you. My call was for southern North Carolina and I'm prepared to go down with the ship. Should I be wrong (no fudging with 3 and 5 day forecasts as I go along, this was from last Thursday), chances of a somewhat rare SE or SSE hit on peninsular Florida could be in the offing. Problem is, this won't be our last hit. I'm sure we'll see 3-4 more CONUS hits before late November. Be sure to hedge in increased homeowner's policies next year
Steve
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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frances is not weakining, pressure is dropping eye looking better on last satt. photos. lyons just said it has moved some south of due west. ominous for p.r. he said hurricane warning may be needed for them. this is a deadly monster forming.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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>>> If Frances brings winds higher than 90mph I'll be doing all the chasing form inside my house
Rabbit, that's going down in the future Gems! Keep posting! I'll be chasing in my garage!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:52 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Phil, are you getting anything from Hermine?
Im surprised it is still a TS based on satellite imagery
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Rabbit, if the NHC "first call on landfall" is anywhere close, you'll be eating crow with your statement of "I am certain the winds will not exceed 100 mph."
The 11pm forecast advisory brings the center to 28°N/81°W at 5 days, inland after hitting the coast as a 120kt hurricane. Where is 28/81? Orlando is at 28.5/81.3, so that places it just south-southeast of Orlando by about 30 miles to the south and 18 miles to the east...think Narcoosee, FL. That'd put the storm passing just to your south.
For those of you all in the Stewart fan club -- he's got the 11pm package on Frances coming up shortly.
Gaston has been reclassified as a T.S. about 50mi SW of Ocean City, MD, while Hermine is still being carried as a T.S. based off of buoy data south of Massachusetts. It (Hermine) is nearing landfall, but at this rate is bound just to kick up the wind a bit with some passing showers. In fact, many people there are bound to think what the big deal is about, as they may well receive no rain from this system at all.
A few new watches/warnings are up for Frances, mainly in the big islands, with potential T.S. watches for the Turks & Caicos tomorrow.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:54 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I am afraid that an undercurrent of concern is starting in the Tampa Bay/Orlando TV web sites. So far I have read two sites, one is stating possible landfall at West Palm Beach and another is calling it Fort Pierce. One site is saying the Hurricane will graze the Eastern Coast on its way to the Carolinas. I know they are picking their own favorite model and going with it, but this is very confusing to the person who is unaware that models are computers and not Blonde weather announcers on TWC!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:55 AM |
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Hermine...
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No, actually, it's dry as a bone at the moment, but it's supposed to kick in the overnight.
Wunderground wx radar
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:57 AM |
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Re: Hermine...
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New forecast Graphic
Puts center near Orlando at the furthest extent, inland in Florida... Ignore the point! (I know its hard) the error will be large.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Hermine...
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much like 1998, Hermine is barely showing on radar
As for my forecast of Frances, remember that in 1999 with Floyd how inaccurate the three day forecasts were--this is five day
if it were 36 or 48 hours out and still forecasting it, I'd be just a bit concerned, but I am not going to panic (as several people are where I live--several discussing evacuating--to the Carolinas)
I have also been noticing that the forecast landfall point is farther north each time--leading me to believe that since these are five day forecasts that it will eventually be forecast to turn east
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:09 AM |
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Re: Hermine...
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The GFDL track has moved farther east again
offshore
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:10 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I'm not a big fan of cutting and pasting information, but this tidbit from the 11pm discussion bears watching, from Stewart:
"...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING."
Here's where this thinking comes in...
1) There is already a sharp trough evident in water vapor imagery across the east-central U.S., and there is energy riding over the ridge in the western U.S. to reinforce this. However, with the strength of the subtropical ridge, it is likely only to amplify the trough and not move it eastward.
2) With a deepening trough in the central U.S., there has to be a corresponding strengthening on a ridge somewhere to compensate. This is likely to be in conjunction with the Atlantic ridge. Add in the gain in intensity you sometimes see of the ridge as a tropical cyclone recurves around it's base - here, Gaston - and this is very plausible.
3) The 00z model runs that arrive about 2am (& later) will include yet another series of Gulfstream jet data from earlier this afternoon. Any and all additional data is going to influence the track forecasts in a positive way, and with a better sample of the environment, the aformentioned shift in the track may well be verified.
I can only hope that the NWS is having all eastern and central U.S. NWS offices launch 6hrly baloons for upper-air observations, as there is a noted increase in forecast ability with increased upper-air data across the United States. If we did thus on a regular basis again, our forecasts would be twice as good as they are now (and that's just midlatitude weather I'm speaking of)! But, I haven't heard of any plans to that effect yet.
It sure will be interesting to see the 00z model runs, but again - it's not a point storm, it's a big storm.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:11 AM |
|
old GFS model
|
Back on Friday I think the GFS model showed Frances going into Mobile Al Bay, which brought quite a chuckle from me at the time..... four days later.... and looking at the lastest NHC hurricane track..... it might not be that far off after all.... from what I heard and read tonight via other news sources and web sites..... I would not be surprised to see the track move south and west over time..... what a challenging storm to track.. guess we'll see tomorrow if the ridge is going to be stronger than earlier expected and shift the track more to the left.... I'm just gawking at all the changes in track like everyone else... but I still like my Kennedy Space Center and somewhat south target areas as I told Steve and Phil a couple of days ago... so does the NHC right now too, but IT will change no doubt
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:12 AM |
|
Re: Hermine...
|
this is more to the south than floyd was, and a trof pulled floyd there is no trof for frances.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:15 AM |
|
84hr 00z TropEta
|
Food for thought...this is the Eta, which is not the best of models to use, but this is the first model to have the new G-IV integrated into it....
84hr Eta
Don't fixate on the locatiom, but the trend....
JK
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Phil,
Here are some current links you may already know about, or if not, could be of general interest:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...l/302053.shtml?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/we...ts/storm_06.gif
*personal note: I REALLY hate this one*
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages...i_gif_full.html
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi...ion=Orlando+Fla
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw...en_m_loop.shtml
Richard
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:17 AM |
|
Re: 84hr 00z TropEta
|
Looks to have the GOM written all over it now doesn't it.....
I have to add that this is based on the ETA model..... which maybe is reading the strength of the ridge being reinforced
I am not saying it will go into the GOM.... only what the model appears to be trending....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:27 AM |
|
Re: 84hr 00z TropEta
|
Jason: any idea where the previous ETA model, i.e. the one without the benefit of the new data, had Frances at approximately the same time?
Thanks for putting that up and apprizing us that it included the new data -- I've seen a lot of helpful stuff on this board today, but your last post was the most helpful.
-Brad
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:30 AM |
|
Re: 84hr 00z TropEta
|
Previous 84hr
Be aware that this is not the same exact time...this is 6 hrs earlier than the current 84 hr I posted above...but you can tell that the Eta is much faster and further south...a sign of the stronger ridge.
This is the link to the same time period on the 00z Eta...
00z Eta...same time as above
| UC WX Dept |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:33 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Some of those links don't work...the dots are being read as part of the URL.
For what it's worth Channel 2 in the Orlando market just did a five minute spiel on 3 different scenarios, but the other two from what I see aren't as alarmist.
Too bad I don't need overzealous mets to be alarmist about this. Even after taking the worst Charley had to offer for the east coast i'm not taking this one lightly.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hermine...
|
Are you talking about Hermine or Frances? The GFDL looks to actually slightly to the left of its previous track to me for Frances.
| jaybythebay |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:36 AM |
|
|
Re: 84hr 00z TropEta
|
I give this thing a 45% chance of making the gulf. Of course yesterday I said 20% chance so who knows but gulf looking like more of a possibility. I'll wait til after I hear what Dr. Bill Williams from Univ. of South Alabama says tomorow before I start to worry about it making the gulf.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:39 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
For what it is worth, I just did a 5 minute spiel on the 3 scenarios as well. What, in your mind, makes that alarmist? An area which JUST went thru a major hurricane event, who's residents are understandably on edge and nervous...I think that more coverage is better. What did he do or say that was overzealous?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:41 AM |
|
|
Re: 84hr 00z TropEta
|
Do you think this is as a result of the new data or as a result of just normal trends.. I have heard the ETA is not one of the most reliable models, and sometimes can be very eratic.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:41 AM |
|
Re: Hermine...
|
Jason, are you suggesting that this is a i south into the GOM storm? THat ETA is quite a bit further south!!
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:41 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Jason,
What is your gut instinct telling you on this one.
at this point in time?
I'm in Orlando but have a friend who will be in Southwest Fla on Fri/Sat...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:42 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Your doing a great job Jason.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:44 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Jasons not saying its GOM. Hes just saying the ETA has the new info into the model run. It may show that but will come in agreement with the overall model package as z runs continue until landfall. We are looking to see the ooz runs to see if it might want to go into the gulf further south then where 18z had her. scottsvb
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:49 AM |
|
My thoughts...
|
I'm not sold on ANY track yet...but I do consider the possibility of this being a Gulf storm much more likely than if you had asked me at 10am this morning. My initial gut on this storm as early as this past weekend was for a Miami/West Palm landfall (in fact, one of the members of this board has an e-mail from me to prove it!
)...I backed off of that a little bit last night and today, but I am starting to get really concerned about a S FL, then Gulf strike. The trough in the central US, as so ably described by Clark and Stewart, is digging quite well, and will reinforce the ridge over the W Atlantic.BUT....I can and have been wrong too many times to count...while this progression of data is better news for JAX or the Carolinas, NOBODY is out of the woods yet. Pay close attention the next few days!
| UC WX Dept |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:49 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
The only thing that really stuck out was the fact as I flipped to the TV station in question, I saw a huge graphic stating in large letters "Saturday 140+ MPH winds"
Not everyone is as savvy as members of this board, and I know several people who will construe that as "OMG that will definetly happen now! It's all over"
My opinion aside I agree with you, more coverage is better. I just think the stations in this market need to state that there is room for error more clearly and concisely, IMO. Maybe it's an overcorrection for the local stations being late about Charley.
That's just my two cents. I'm definetly not a Meteorologist, but i'm studying to be one.
I'm hoping for the ever decreasing possibilty of the hook for this one.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:50 AM |
|
|
Glenn Burns
|
Well, I guess that cancels my escape route to North Georgia, huh?
That is honestly a nightmare scenario. Up the state all the way from one end to the other? I surely hope that does not happen. The other problem I see with this storm is it's current movement @ 13 to 14mph. That gives us much less time to do a whole lot. Hopefully any visitors that plan on making a Labor Day Weekend vacation in Florida are paying attention to the news.
The good news is that we have a shelter here right across the street at our local highschool.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Quote:
Some of those links don't work...the dots are being read as part of the URL.
For what it's worth Channel 2 in the Orlando market just did a five minute spiel on 3 different scenarios, but the other two from what I see aren't as alarmist.
Sorry, something happened in the editor I guess. THese work in the preview mode so hopefully they will work for you. Again, sorry.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm6+shtml/302053.shtml?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/...ion=Orlando+Fla
http://www.midatlanticwx.com/modelmap.htm
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_ten_m_loop.shtml
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Worked just fine Richard Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 03:57 AM |
|
Texas!!
|
Texas is a BIG state and we have plenty of room for all of ya'll to come and get away from this big monster. In fact, we could be the only ones who don't have to worry about Frances at this point.
ShawnS
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:00 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Texas!!
|
Quote:Wait a few more model runs...we'll get 'ya.
Texas is a BIG state and we have plenty of room for all of ya'll to come and get away from this big monster. In fact, we could be the only ones who don't have to worry about Frances at this point.
ShawnS
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Thanks for the feedback...Again, I'm sorry the original didn't xfer right.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: NHC Track
|
I didn't watch Fox 8 @ 9 but someone reported that Breck is thinking Frances may clip the keys and then head for Fort Walton or Panama City Beach. I guess it's plausible. He based his hunch on forward speed and strength. Apparently he thinks it's going to be a powerful storm. All I'm going to say is that Frances is turning into a pretty ominous threat for the United States. With Charley, you couldn't be sure of what he had until hours prior to landfall. But anyone can see where Frances has been and what her potential is. I wouldn't want to come off as being too alarmist, but someone's (and quite possibly) a lot of people are going to pay.
I read a report out of Newport or Richmond where there were 10' of water in some buildings (11+" of rain in a short timespan). Gaston turned out to be a major story throughout SC, NC, VA and will be beyond. Bastardi thinks TS conditions in New England. Pretty trippy. Wet storm followed by a powerhouse storm.
And oh yeah, in case you haven't noticed, 2004 is shaping up to be the all time sickest troipcal season and we're not even in September yet. /food for thought
Steve
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:04 AM |
|
Re: NHC Track
|
Here's a weather statement from the area up in Virginia, it's been raining nonstop since about 5PM here. Gaston is nasty for flooding...
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1005 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CHESTERFIELD COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA
* UNTIL 200 AM EDT
* AT 1000 PM EDT...CHESTERFIELD COUNTY EMERGENCY OFFICIALS HAD
ORDERED MANDATORY EVACUATIONS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR
DAM. WATER IS NOW OVERTOPPING THE SPILLWAY...AND DAM FAILURE IS
POSSIBLE. THOSE ORDERED TO EVACUATE ARE INSTRUCTED TO GO TO
MEADOWBROOK HIGH SCHOOL.
* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING...THOSE AREAS NEAR THE FALLING CREEK
RESERVOIR DAM...INCLUDING MANY IN THE MEADOWBROOK AREA.
THIS FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED DUE TO THE POSSIBLE FAILURE OF
THE FALLING CREEK RESERVOIR DAM.
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.
LAT...LON 3734 7752 3730 7746 3739 7738 3753 7762
3756 7766 3744 7780 3744 7776 3741 7776
3740 7774 3738 7771 3737 7766
$$
REILLY
So Gaston is causing quite the headache, I95 at I64 in Richmond is also closed do to the interstate flooding.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:15 AM |
|
|
|
something you dont see everyday
|
take a close look--it may never happen again
weather channel map
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:20 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
new GFS has Frances running right into the ridge to her north and moving NW or even NNW. Very odd run with new data. Model might be out to lunch on this one,, will check others.
scottsvb
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
You beat me too it Scott.. I was just going to provide a link.. This is the 96 Hr GFS 08/31/2004 00Z http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp0_096.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:24 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
I don't get it. 0Z GFS has Frances about 350 east of stuart, FL, after movng almost due north from the eastern tip of Cuba (at a latitude of about 25 N), cuba used as a reference point. the 0z ETA has it going over central cuba west!!!! Somethings wrong with this picture. GFS shows Frances moving north into a building ridge to her north!. Question here is does the model turn her west again towards the FL peninsula!!!!
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Glenn Burns(11pm news update)
|
Glenn Burns from WSB-TV here in Atlanta seems to be the only on-air meterologist taking Frances very seriously. His latest prediction is that Frances will hit somewhere between Jupiter and Melbourne on either late Thursday or early Friday, head up through South Georgia and park over Atlanta for the weekend....If this stationary front doesen't skeedaddle out of here soon, Us folks in Atlanta may be looking for Noah and his animals walking down Peachtree St. I think the next 24 hours will tell us when and where, and knowing Glenn's track record, I would go with his forecast over the other three TV Stations here.
Now, Atlanta is not on a coast and very rarely gets hit by tropical storms, but with the world's busiest airport here, it could mess up airline traffic for most of the US over Labor Day weekend..... :?:
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:25 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
I've been thinking that Frances may clip the FL Keys and enter the Gulf kinda like Georges did-except Georges was a little further South.
Going to be interesting tracking this thing!
And College Football starts this weekend! Hope Frances doesn't ruin it!
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:28 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
Did you happen to notice the newest CV storm brewing on these maps?? At 96hrs it still a long way off but something else to think able
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
The new models are fliping back to the east .
What a busy week this is going to be .
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:31 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
Well, yes, the GFS has a different track, but the reasoning and synoptics are different than the Eta...the GFS has a weaker and more progressive ridge that only briefly builds south and then ejects to the east, allowing Frances to turn in it's wake. Interesting, to say the least, but I ain't convinced...at least not yet....this GFS run really evolves the ridge/trough pattern differently than prior runs, as well as the Eta...not saying it is wrong, but it is different.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:34 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
GFS actually not only misses florida on new ooz model run but only scraps the bahamas with TS force winds and moves it NNW with possible landfall in 6 day near the outerbanks NC.
Lets see 2 more runs of this to think this might happen due to weakness in the mid atlantic states and the ridge weaker out in the atlantic. Other model runs coming in.
scottsvb
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:35 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
This seemed to happen last night too, when they fed new data into the models, and then a correction occured..
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
Check out Goes12 and zoom on Gaston. It appears that an eye is forming as it nears the coast. If so, it could blow up quick if it hits the right warm water pocket. Looks like the Jersey Shoreline and maybe Long Island are in for some action. Enjoy.
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:37 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
Canadian model is out with the ooz run and shows the same as the 12z run thru wpb up and out of tpa florida. I cant remember but jason if your getting this, the CMC has the new data in it also right? Anyways waiting on more models.
scottsvb
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:41 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
I don't recall...if they were using the EDAS or GDAS initializations, then yes, it is in there, but I am not familiar enough with the Canadian Modelliing schema to know if they use our initializations, or if we provide it to them in a timely enough fashion of thier own initialization...my gut tells me it is probably in there.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:41 AM |
|
|
|
Flooding
|
That is horrible! I'll say extra prayers for those people tonight. Sometimes we get so focused on a single thing we forget that there are other things out there just as deadly as a hurricane. I can't even imagine what would happen if a dam broke. Especially in the middle of the night. That's the scariest part of any scenario..hurricane, earthquake, tornado, floods, etc. At least if it happens during the day you feel as though you have some control over it. Not so at night.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:43 AM |
|
Re: Flooding
|
Correct Jason, I wasnt sure also, was going to call a friend up in ruskin nws here but saw the time. I wasnt sure if they get the info before the run is initialized.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Flooding
|
Hope that dam holds up. Gaston is dumping tons of rain on Virginia. It was a slow moving wet storm. Goes to show you that sometimes it's not the winds but the rain that can cause a lot of damage. For all his wind, Charley did not dump much rain partially due to his rapid speed as he crossed the state.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:50 AM |
|
Re: Flooding
|
Navy Nogaps is out and is simular to the CMC and a tad more w then it was over the last 2 days. It makes landfal near WPB moving NW. I wish if the GFS had its 18z run as the ooz then this would be almost unaminous on a Miami-Vero beach landfall but still models will change. Im going to note also that by noon today (tues) the GFS already shows a WNW motion taking this to near 23N and 70W. Lets see if it reinializes the motion by 12Z today. scottsvb
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:50 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Glenn Burns(11pm news update)
|
Yes, Glenn Burns is the best met (IMHO) in Atlanta. When I lived at home, that's the only guy my father watched. He was usually correct. A week ago Saturday my Mom woke up to find out the cables on the boat dock had snapped and it was floating down into the cove, both boats attached. I think they have just gotten so much rain that it just couldn't handle anymore, and my Mom said that they had a really bad storm the night before. Atlanta might not be on the coast, but it sure takes a lot of beatings from tropical weather.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
Lets see if I can put this question into words. I was watching the NOAA water vapor loop and looking behind frances, to the south, I see a wave - finger, moving and appears to be pushing Frances. Could this be why Frances is gaining some forward speed? Thanks
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:52 AM |
|
Re: Glenn Burns(11pm news update)
|
Let me repost what i ment,, i ment 23N 70W not by noon today (ugh) but moving towards that spot by weds morning.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 04:59 AM |
|
Re: something you dont see everyday
|
What you are seeing is the TUTT, or a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough, that is behind Frances and helping to ventilate it. It is really not a steering force, as the trof is expanding a bit as Frances is moving away...in other words, Frances is affecting it, not the other way around....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Charley's Track and the Models
|
Scott...when Charley was just beginning to look as though it might be a real threat to Tampa, Dennis Phillips said, "If the model runs are still the same this time tomorrow night, we may be in real trouble." That was on Tuesday, and on Wednesday they were still the same. This is an all too familiar reminder of his thoughts. Even though it made landfall south of TB, it was only off by about 70 or so miles, which was in the cone.
If I hear that tomorrow, I'm going out to restock what we used. The track has been trending left then right then back left again, but it really hasn't changed all that much and now with the forward speed moving faster, they're talking about 8:00am Saturday instead of 2am Monday. That's also eerily familiar.
Remember how the pressure had dropped but the winds didn't catch up until right before landfall? That caught everyone by surprise. So the wording "a conservative estimate" used by the NHC when talking about the winds makes the hair on my fairly small head stand up on edge.
I want to say this about our local mets: we have some really good ones and they sure worked around the clock with Charley. However, Dennis Phillips kept plugging himself with the line "we were the first ones to tell you this" about the track change, yet it wasn't until a few really ticked off viewers from the inland counties made him realize that just because it was not going to devastate TB didn't mean that the interior counties were off the hook. It actually took until almost 2:00pm for him to start talking TO the inland counties. BayNews9 noticed the change in the track an hour before they did and also the impact it would have on the inland counties.
I guess what really gets my goat is when a weather person keeps patting themselves on the back (he's still doing it) for doing what he's supposed to do in the first place. It's like a fireman going on TV telling everyone that he put out the fire first. Of course they do, that's what they have to do. I just don't like the "I was the best and the first" plugs. Especially when they weren't.
Now, why I ever went off on that rant is beyone me, I suppose I'm just tired. I guess I just want people to tell me what's going to happen and what I can expect without having to listen to them tooting their own horn.
I think I'll go do something that I didn't do with Charley: get some quality sleep time in. If I learned one thing from Charley, it will leave you physically and emotionally drained just when you need to be on top of the game.
BTW...you and Jason are doing a great job keeping us up to date on the latest model runs. Thanks to both of you for doing such a great job.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:28 AM |
|
Is this another wave in front of Frances?
|
Was just looking at water vapor and shortwave and visible sats. Its looks to have good rotation and convection building at the center. IN front of Frances (over the islands already). Maybe some models are picking this up?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:40 AM |
|
Re: Is this another wave in front of Frances?
|
Lisa, we have discussed this about 80 posts back...lol...it is an upper low out ahead of Frances...not a tropical surface low. For more info scroll back about 80 or so posts...
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:41 AM |
|
Re: Is this another wave in front of Frances?
|
Thank you Jason
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 05:45 AM |
|
|
Re: Charley's Track and the Models
|
Just logged in. I'll have to say I second the kudos to Jason and the gang for the updates. You do a great job here.
I noticed the NHC has added quite a few FL cities to the Strike Probs. Since I'm not much good at the models, I went back and checked their stats against Charley. NHC had Venice/ Ft Myers with the highest prob up to 36 hrs prior to landfall. I realize that just means that the possibility of the storm passing within 65nm was there. However, both of those cities continued to get higher probs. when NHC was giving Tampa lower probs. That's just my opinion and not necessarily those of the management. It may be a storm by storm situation. They hit dead on with some and miss with the others.
With that said, Miami and West Palm both have the highest probs as of the 11pm Advisory. Both have a 7 in column 'D'.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Charley's Track and the Models
|
Yikes new model plots
new model plots
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:11 AM |
|
And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
|
Day 7 ECMWF
Anybody want to be in my shoes?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:15 AM |
|
Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
|
Saw that, and a few other globals getting close to the same situation.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:16 AM |
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|
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope Frances fools everone in the 11th hour like Charley.
| cyclone_head |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:22 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Quote:
Looks like we all will be in your shoes here in Central Florida two days before you. Another direct hit in Orlando seems to be the trend. I hope Frances fools everone in the 11th hour like Charley.
and steers it way right....sorry its late.......
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:22 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Charley surprised more than he fooled.
| joepub1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:38 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Has anybody noticed that the numerical models, well at least two of them, and maybe the GFS as well, got feed something into them that caused Frances to slow way, way down between 36-72 hrs.??? This is one of the most radical changes I've ever seen in a six hour period. Really goes completely against the NHC 11pm forecast, as well as most of the eariler globals. Wonder what's going on with that?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:43 AM |
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PCB
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Hi Jason, my parents just moved to PCB. Do you have a handle on the probabilites of this thing entering the Gulf? Should I tell my folks to high tail it over to our house in Louisiana? I know that they are watching closely and will be wanting to make a decision by Thursday morning. Thanks for all you do. Kimmie
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:53 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Joe, judging from the number of dropsondes they released today I would venture to say they obtained quite a bit of extra data. I'm not sure if the data from that kind of dropsonde is comparable to the Gulfstream IV drops data. There should be some format that would let them utilize both types. Just my opinion.
Satellites are back up and Frances looks quite a bit healthier than at 0345Z.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 06:54 AM |
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Re: PCB
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Kimmie,
In all honesty, tell them to watch me...it is WAAAAAY too early to make that call., but you can bet if the call needs to be made, I'll make it early and often.
If you or they have any questions I can answer, contact me directly.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:02 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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...21.0 63.5 308mb flight level wind070deg at 50kts.
That looks to be due west of the eye, at the western edge of the cloud mass. I'm not sure what 300mb equals in altitude, but it's fairly high. This is from the last recon observation at 0620Z.
**Clarification-this IS Not the new position, just a reporting position on the way into or out of the storm. They have to send a report every 20-30 minutes or so, with data in it, and that position was where they were on their way out it looks like. They make all kinds of criss-crosses and zig-zags sometimes.**
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:05 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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welp they just got in there,,its not at 21N we can all see that, maybe 20 or was that just a misprint?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:06 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Kimmie and others. You don't have to be registered, but if you will, when you can, register so we can send you Personal Messages without having to post them on the board. Then again, lots of the questions we have for the mets and others probably belong on the board. Thanks.
BTW-it's free to register!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:10 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Naahhhh....that was a recon leg report, not a vortex center fix....the center of Frances is NOT at 21N, nor is that what the message says...the highest wind gust for that leg of the run was in that position.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:17 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Sorry about that! I went back and put a clarification of the bottom of the post.
They have 105nm legs they fly, criss-crossing the storm. The 105nm is not set in stone and they can alter the leg as they see fit. There are about 5 different patterns they fly and they appear to be headed out of the storm to turn left and make another pass through the storm. I'll see if I can find a link for you to look at.
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/alpha.htm
Better link, with more patterns.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/cyclo/
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:24 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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with the pressure of Frances bouncing around everywhere (948, 956, 945, 951) and not showing any general trend of continuous dropping, it is looking less likely that Frances will reintensify to Cat IV
It also appears now that it will take the more southerly track as it has been moving nearly due west for about a day now
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:46 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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That dont mean that it will track more on the southern route, the models overall moved more N and E but slightly. GFS is the biggest mover to the NE while the Nogaps moved more w slightly, CMC is also a tad more N and Ukmet is about the same. Will throw out the ETA but it could be right but a tad more N of that. The models all predicted a w motion up to this morning with a turn wnw during today, lets see when it does.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 07:57 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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The 11pm forecast advisory shows 05/0000Z- 28.0N/ 81.0W Inland!
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:04 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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The coordinates that have been given of 28N81w are where I live!
that 250 mile error. Is that in time of arrival or distance right/left of the coordinate?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:08 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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0655Z Vortex report
H. 949 MB
P. AF966 0806A FRANCES OB 08
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NW QUAD 0649Z. MAX FL TEMP 18C 138 DEG 13NM
FROM FL CENTER.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:14 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Quote:The coordinates are near downtown Orlando, maybe just SE a tad, the 120 hours is relative to the time of the forecast (Makes it late Saturday) and is based upon current and forecast speed. Errors noted say the distance can be a few hundred miles off by Saturday (Mia to Jax) and the top speed could be off by quite a bit also. Timing assumes speed is as predicted so could get here much earlier or possibly later. Bottom line, pay extra attention to this forecast, but be prepared for significant changes also....start your preparations now and be ready to take evasive action if required by Friday. Other than moving to safety if that is needed, you should already have your supplies and plans firmed up or completed.
The coordinates that have been given of 28N81w are where I live!
that 250 mile error. Is that in time of arrival or distance right/left of the coordinate?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:22 AM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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Thanks. I live in a home that is supposed to meet minimum standards. Its a normal home. We have been prepared since Charley was expected. With the shifting models and the error disclaimers, I was uncertain about the coordinates. I have a lot family in this area as well. Its not that long until we have to start final preparations for what ever may occur. Is Wednesday still the definitive day or has that been moved to a sooner time for Florida to get a more concrete notion of what to expect. ( I know from Charlie that this is a general answer no matter what)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:32 AM |
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Re: Frances on San Juan radar
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Frances is just beginning to show on the long range San Juan radar. Loops aren't workin at this time. Long range, still image here.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:50 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...HERMINE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND THE
CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.9 WEST
OR ABOUT 60 MILES...EAST OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GASTON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
75 MILES... 125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY.
...CATEGORY THREE FRANCES CONTINUING WESTWARD TRACK NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
*full updates available under "Current Storms" heading on the left sidebar*
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 08:58 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Please comment on how this report impacts Florida in terms of time of hurricane over any particular land area of Florida if the track verifies within a 65-70 miles range. Thanks
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:17 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Thanks, I was just about to list some locations.
28.5N and 81.5W at 06Z (2AM edt) Sept 5th.
These are based on the 5 day Forecast and DO NOT compensate for the 325nm error possibility!!
From the GA/FL state line to Key West is 376nm. To give you an idea of how far 325nm is. That's a lot of Error.
KFPR-Ft Pierce airport......27.5N/ 80.4W
KCOF-Patrick AFB/ KSC...28.2N/ 80.6W
KMLB- NWS office...........28.1N/ 80.6W
*These coordinates are from the NWS list of reporting stations*
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:24 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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In other words, these estimates this far out are almost worthless except to say that they think the hurricane will threaten Florida. But, it might miss Florida to the left or Right of the Peninsula and they won't know for sure for 3 more days(?)
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:46 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Anything can happen, right up until she makes landfall. Being I am here slightly north of Daytona. Someone, PLEASE get out the Dyno gel......
Quote:
In other words, these estimates this far out are almost worthless except to say that they think the hurricane will threaten Florida. But, it might miss Florida to the left or Right of the Peninsula and they won't know for sure for 3 more days(?)
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:51 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Well, I see the models have changed a bit.
Should be an interesting day.
People are already cleaning out the store shelves in Central Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 09:55 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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I going out and doing shopping today before the selves are clear out here in East Central Florida. Looks by the current models, its going to go right over the top of my house. Thank goodness I live in a strong one.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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The NWS Melbourne's office has a great tool where you can point to a spot on the map. It gives you a forcast but also your location.
Apopka is 28.66 N 81.5 W. So, if this forecast holds true, I would be about 9 miles to the north of the center. That would put it at about Windermere.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 AM |
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Great discussion from Tampa
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This is about the best description of anyone yet.
AS FOR FRANCES...JUST WHEN THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS APPEARED TO
CONVERGE...OFF IN THEIR OWN WORLD THEY GO ONCE AGAIN. AS OF THIS
WRITING...THE ETA...CANADIAN AND NOW NAVY NOGAPS MODELS WERE FARTHEST
SOUTH. THE ETA HAS FRANCES ENTERING THE STRAITS BY 12Z/FRI WHILE THE
CANADIAN/NOGAPS STEADILY MOVE IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM SE TO NW
ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z UKMET THRU 72H APPEARS ON TRACK WITH
THE CURRENT TPC FCST.
THE BIG CHANGE...AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...IS THE GFS
WHICH FIRST SLOWS FRANCES TO A CRAWL OVER THE CENTRAL/N BAHAMAS
BEFORE TAKING A DUE N MOTION INTO THE SE U.S. (CAROLINAS). ALSO JUST
LIKE YESTERDAY...THE GFDL IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.
THIS TIME...THE KEY PLAYER IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN
ATLC RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY
WHICH WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO PULL UP AND WAIT FOR THE SYSTEM IN THE
GULF OF AK TO EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EVENTUALLY THE
GREAT PLAINS...WHERE DEEPENING AMPLITUDE INCREASES S/SW FLOW THAT
EVENTUALLY (BY SAT NIGHT OR SO) PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE GFS/GFDL
SHOW THIS WEAKNESS WHILE THE ETA/NOGAPS/UKMET DO NOT.
SO...SHOULD FRANCES BARELY SLOW DOWN...THE FARTHER S SOLUTIONS (MORE
OMINOUS FOR FLORIDA) LOOK BEST. BUT...IF FRANCES SLOWS TO A CRAWL
WHILE IN THE BAHAMAS...THE CHANCES FOR A FLORIDA LANDFALL DECREASE
DRAMATICALLY.
HOPEFULLY...WE'LL BE ABLE TO HONE IN ON A SOLUTION THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE "IN SIGHT".
STAY TUNED...
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 10:44 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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I am seeing posts at another site, that Melborne locals are thinking a Floyd track now. Can this be true or is this a crowd control gimmick?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:01 AM |
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Just Be Prepared
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The wise thing to do is to have on hand all emergency supplies, necessary material to cover your windows/doors, sandbags, non-perishable food stock, water, a generator / cell phones.batteries, etc.
Also have Plan B ready to be implemented once the 3 day (72 hr) window is upon us and that would start Wednesday evening.
Remember that Frances' speed will change as well as other variables that make up the models' calculated path; hence, don't agree totally with the current path as we are outside the 72 hour range.
Sit tight and be ready to implement Plan B.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:09 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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________________________________________________
I am seeing posts at another site, that Melborne locals are thinking a Floyd track now. Can this be true or is this a crowd control gimmick?
________________________________________________
Some of the models show a Floyd track. Others show it hitting Florida. I think this is going to be very much like Floyd in that we won't know if it is a hit or a miss for Florida until very late in the game.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:10 AM |
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Re: Just Be Prepared
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I will do that. The Tampa post sounds like the most reasonable solution to all the questions so far. I am as prepared as I can be under the current circumstances. I don't however have a generator. Hopefully that is one purchase that won't have needed to have been made. I do feel better about going to work today and not having to read all the updates. It sounds like the Tampa report is the most reasonable.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:32 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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The curve to the N may have something to do with a ULL out to W of FrancesThe ULL was expected to continue moving at the same rate as Frances to the W.Since last night is has not moved.The distance between the the leading edges of each system is 600 miles.Frances can either start the squeeze on the system like Charley did our go over the top.The latter I think would accelerate Frances alittle to the NW.If she chooses to squeeze the ULL she will slow down.See how the dynamics play out latter on today.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 11:37 AM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Actually since the NHC listed Brevard County as the bullseye,
I 've felt a bit better, 1) they have rarely pegged it this far out.
2) Already this morning the bullseye has been moved South.
I posted the other day my gut tells me North of Ft Lauderdale and South of FT Pierce.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:20 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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That is what I was thinking, too.
Quote:
I posted the other day my gut tells me North of Ft Lauderdale and South of FT Pierce.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:21 PM |
Re: 5AM updates
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I agree with that gut feeling of yours....and unfortunately I am in Deerfield Beach..smack dab in the middle of that location.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:26 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Coconut Creek here and begining to get nervous.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Quote:If the forecast is that accurate in terms of distances then the timing is within an hour or two I would bet also
Please comment on how this report impacts Florida in terms of time of hurricane over any particular land area of Florida if the track verifies within a 65-70 miles range. Thanks
| RBL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:35 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Something to look:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.tjua.shtml
Regards
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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This storm makes gaston look like a drizzle. That's one very strong storm!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 12:55 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Quote:At least Gaston wasn't a blow-hard also. ...and it might be playing soon in a town near you....
This storm makes gaston look like a drizzle. That's one very strong storm!
BTW, does anyone know if that DAM held last night, the one that was pouring water over the spillway last evening in Va I think it was?
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:03 PM |
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Re: 5AM updates
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Dam apparently held .. although three died from drowning in two seperate incidents
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:06 PM |
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hole in the wall?
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I hope everyone in South Florida doesn't wait for the High in the Atlantic to open a hole for Frances 24 hours before landfall. It certainly could happen - and might. But, what if it doesn't? Kind of like being under water with a 10 ton rock on your head holding you down and praying it moves so you can get up to get air.
I found the statistically significant Herbert's Box info quite fearful for South Florida. 90% +/- accuracy is a pretty high number. That should be enough warning for all of us (as we all haul butt out of Florida praying this is the one out of 10 'cain that misses us).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:18 PM |
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Re: Hermine Raises TS Warnings for Cape Cod, Frances Track Questions
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The HPC 7 day forcast loop !
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:21 PM |
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Re: hole in the wall?
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Good morning all: another exciting day and the Hurricane of the moment continues west at 15mph...which should keep us interested...
I don't have the time for this but having lived through Donna in 1960 I wonder why the historic trac of that significant storm and this one are not being compared? The timing and the path are similar. The question that needs to be researched if possible is what if any similarity in synoptic features that influenced the trac of Donna exist in the current pattern
Can any one point to any graphic data that can quickly be accessed so we can look at that? This is not just an idle curiosity...
The influence of the ULL to the west on the trac of Frances cannot be under estimated. It has not retreated wes as much as the storm has advanced west and this can account for the GFS and GFDL stall over the Bahamas...
In my opinion if the ULL gets out of the way Frances will stay on a pathe slightly West of WNW into the gulf and a Donna like turn will occur as the trough approaches.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:24 PM |
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Re: And just to stoke up the fire a little more....
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i stubbled on this website while looking for hurricane info. As a survivor of Andrew this one is way to close for comfort.
Good discussions here and i will be tuning in during the day
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:28 PM |
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Re: hole in the wall?
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Donna's track:
http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/donna.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: hole in the wall?
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Hey Doug,
I'm in Bradenton, been here almost 1 year. I have to ask what do think the impact here on the west side of the state will be if Frances hits the east then moves out over the gulf? I realize it is early, but Charley was a little too close for comfort and it effected people as far out as Orlando.
Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:37 PM |
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Re: hole in the wall?
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That DOnna graphic looks awfully similar to Frances --- I'm not convinced this storm is going to nudge as far north or "left of S. Fla" as some models want it too. The "weakness" in the high seems almost impossible if Frances deepens and creates herself a stronger upper ridge? Any thoughts ??
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:41 PM |
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Where was Donna when....
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Hello:
If you could please provide this information-
Where was Donna at 20 degrees North and 60 degrees west ? (North of it, south of it?)
Thanks.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:49 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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Another Donna track:
http://wxpaos09.colorado.edu/hurricanes/GreatStorms/Donna1960/track.htm
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:50 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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According to this gif (hard to read), it appears she was at about 63.5 when she hit 20. Very comparable IMO.
http://www.keyshistory.org/HurrD-Chart.jpg
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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Thanks; it just gives credibility to the Herbert Box Theory that if a hurricane comes under 20/60 then it will hit south Florida.
On to the next thread!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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I think this is a new tracking model, but it may have already been posted:
http://www.hurricanealley.net/Storms/06LALLMDL.html
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 01:59 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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Has anyone heard that there was problems with the GFS data last night ? Doesnt the UKMET, NOGAPS, and possibly the Canadian modell get fed the same data ? I am not a model expert, but have been heariing there was issues with the data input last night at least for the GFS (and of course the models that initialize off that).
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:26 PM |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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When Donna Hit 60, she was at 17.16 N
-Bev
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 31 2004 02:52 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Where was Donna when....
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Picture showing comparison of Donna in 1960 and the current Frances.
The lower track is Donna, the upper track is Frances.