MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:14 PM |
Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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10pm
A few of the models trended right, but the consensus still keeps it on track currently. More to come at 11PM.
Original Update
Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
The 5PM National Hurricane Center update is out, and they have kept the track similar to what they had earlier, which is forcing hard decisions for evacuation orders.
The Florida State Superensemble model still puts the storm through Florida, while two others GFL and GFDL slow it down and turn it more northward. So, unfortunately, confidence in the track is still low. Watches aren't up for Florida yet, but I imagine they would be by 11PM tonight. It is important to note that most of the models still do take it in across Florida.
Image thanks to Skeetobite
How strong the current ridge remains is what may or may not drive Frances inward across Florida. Time will tell, and fluctuations in intensity may happen. 11PM will be telling.
Some other notes include a possible tightening up of the windfield, as found by recon, and perhaps a slight elongation on satellite imagery.
County By County Info: (Updated as received.. in alpha order-- click on county name for County EM website) Updated: 5:12PM
Please use Local Media for the absolute latest information!
Brevard: Brevard County will issue a Mandatory evacuation beginning 2 p.m. Thursday, Sept. 2, for the following areas:
* Barrier Islands, including Merritt Island
* Mobile, manufactured homes countywide
* All primary evacuation shelters (listed in the phone book, page 55) will open at 2 p.m. Thursday Sept. 2
Indian River: Shelters will be opened at noon tomorrow, but evacuation out of Florida may be the better answer. Mandatory evacuations for the barrier island and mobile homes will occur tomorrow beginning at noon. Limited shelters are available because of the intense winds. We will have routes for evacuation tomorrow. Remember, the entire east coast of Florida is going to evacuate because of this storm. School is closed Thursday and Friday. A list of shelters will be available in the morning.
Flagler:
A voluntary evacuation of the area east of I-95, mobile homes and homes in flood prone and low lying areas in Flagler County will go into effect at noon Thursday.
Lake:: School Closed Friday
Martin: plans to urge up to 7,500 residents to evacuate low-lying areas starting at noon tomorrow.
Orange: School Closed Friday
Osceola: School Closed Friday
Palm Beach: Mandatory Evacuations for Barrier Islands and lowlying areas begin tomorrow 2PM.. some may start earlier. School half day Thursday, closed Friday
Seminole: School Closed Friday
St. Lucie: Click link for updates. Announcements tomorrow AM.
Volusia: Community college and public schools are closed Thursday and Friday.
Request for info (With source) for these type of announcements!
Please listen to local media for updated information on these areas.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Everyone is starting to harp on a NW turn, but look at the trends the last 24 - 48 hours, its been wobbling and stair stepping. Probably not a turn occurring. Also the eye has just tightened up alot compared to earlier and that for sure gave it the appearence of a Northward jog. Im not buying yet, Im saying landfall near West Palm Beach, or maybe just slightly farther north as a Cat 4.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Crazy day. Seen it wobble some west. Have the eye possibly reform north. Heard it was in fluctuating mode going to Cat 5..then heard was weakening. Seems a lot of rumors and intangibles.
Following discussion from NHC.
No warnings or watches up tomorrow as of yet in South Florida but schools have been cancelled in some counties and other city jobs on short day schedules.
Looking foward to seeing what people think as the evening progresses.
Meanwhile..Frances goes steadily wnw.. nhc calling for a slowdown somewhere..waiting.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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I just spoke to my mom in Vero Beach. She said that people are starting to go into panic mode. She said that people have been fighting in home depot over batteries, ply wood, etc. Ya'll be careful down there.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Anyone tend to agree that this has been one of the more aggravating storms to track? Its causing me to go crazy, I cant concentrate in school. LOL But at least one of my teachers (Marine Bio) loves tropical weather. We get to watch videos and discuss what might happen, especially this week so far. I love it. Looks like I may end up sick tomorrow and Friday (wink wink)
So no school for me.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:39 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Well, my high school (on orange/Seminole Border) cancelled school friday. This storm isnt weakening, isnt strengthening, its just remaining monstrous. Frankly, Im more concerned about the damage here in Orlando than I was about Charley.
As if anyone cares, a new invest is out on 98 in the east atlantic.
And to think that it isnt even the midpoint of the season yet!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:43 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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>>> Anyone tend to agree that this has been one of the more aggravating storms to track?
Droop, I couldn't agree more and I think so too would a lot on this board.
I was holding off making a "forecast" and I still will, but I still believe there are 3 equally viable end games for Frances.
(1) The climo/history end game: This storm is a classic longtracking CV storm. Historically, although usually at a slightly higher lattitude, they pull a "Floyd". Scare the hell out of FL and bolt for Hattaras. GFL & GDFL still hinting at the FL miss. GFS has been performing extremely well this year.
(2) NHC forecast. The most likely track and the reason they are sticking with it at this point. EC FL hit then into GA. Wouldn't bet against this one for the moment.
(3) Southern surprise. Ridge builds in back strongly and forces Frances across FL and into the GOM. IMHO (not a forecast, yet) least likely scenario, but possible.
I think these three scenarios will still be viable tonight, and I'll give my crow munching forecast at that time.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Looks like this is back on a Westward Track.. Did anyone see the eye get more defined in the past few frames, also looks much larger.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:45 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Watching the last hour and fifty minutes of the NRL vis loop Frances has in my opinion a more northerly component than earlier today, but it is not moving NW... most of the day she was moving around 285-290 degress at best.... for the past two hours I would estimate her motion at around ~295 but no more than 300 degrees.... now she may stay on this course, or perhaps go back to a more wnw course or even go NW, I don't know, all I know is what I've seen of late...
8 minute update... a little more west wobble.... looks to be overall wnw again .... wobbles can drive a sane person crazy.... boy but what greats sat pixs from NRL....
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:55 PM |
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Upon further review...
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I was reading the last thread just a few minutes ago and I noticed that a few people were talking about the NW'erly motion that was taking place. Looks like that was just a wobble:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
As you can see at the end of the loop, a more westerly jog has just taken place.
On to the next round of fun...the amplification that is currently moving eastward over the eastern US this evening.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
It looks to me as if this amplification is going to be heading out the door overnight tonight. When you combine this with latest westerly jog, I am beginning to lose hope for a turn towards the NW. If this storm was still moving NW in the last few frames of the first loop I posted, then I would be a bit more optimistic for a turn.
It almost seems to me as if the storm is "correcting" itself; staying near the latest NHC track. Floridians, be prepared, regardless of what happens.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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based on sat/recon....the last 6 hrs she went through a eye wall replacement of some sort....and some of the cloud tops appeared to cover the eye and gave a smaller look on vis, but now it is clearing and looks to be expanding.....note recon had 938mb....and had a 32m wide eye...now its back to 30 at last check....stills looks to be on same course of 290 wnw....
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Forecasters in Orlando (Channel 9 ) showed the trough that is suppose to weaken the Ridge, but it has flattened, so he thinks this is not going to break the ridge down.. WE can only hope, but he states its not looking like it will..
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 09:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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I agree.... and was posting on what the perception of the motion was for the past 110 minutes or so.... looks back WNW to me
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Holly $^|# You Want to talk about a headache of a storm you people have no idea......
Here in Stuart fl 27.10n 80.10w........ Plywood is now a rare comodity. Almost all the gas stations are out of fuel, Generators,batteries,flash lights,stove fuel are non exsistant, and People are starting to scream and shout and get into fights to top it all off. Ropes for boats are no longer available same with anchors and chain. Luckly I have all my rope and chain and anchors for my boat already. Old timers think its coming and new timers are confused and scared. Me i dont even want to look at it im getting my boat ready and thats all i can think about right now. These N wobles,and west jogs just make me want to scream.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Hello,
We are located in Sebring. Anyone care to comment on what we could expect if Frances makes landfall around Brevard?
I live in a two story home, so that is somewhat concerning in itself to me.
Thanks
Jan
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Weren't we doing the same thing yesterday around this time? I'm ready to turn off the TV and just wait and see wait happens on Saturday.
We've got the met at ABC News Station here in TB telling us that TAMPA BAY WILL DEFINITELY NOT FEEL HURRICANE STRENGTH WINDS with this storm. He's also saying he think's this will do a Floyd turn ...which he claims is a good possibility in "his own opinion". He beginning to annoy the heck out of me. Like a mosquito, I'm gonna slap him.
Is there a possibility of NW turn and a Floyd scenario? He was talking to a reporter who was at the NHC and he asked if they were wearing their "game faces". She replied, "Well, there was only one time that I've seen Max Mayfield smile today, and that was when they postponed putting the watches up at 5pm." Now he just said, "We're looking at landfall sometime around 2pm TUESDAY." WHAT?????
Then I turn on Channel 8, and the chief met there is saying that "we are absolutely NOT out of the woods."
So which is it? Are we out of the wood or aren't we? I know it's hard to tell at this time, but I wish ABC News 28 would figure out what they're doing.
Polk County Schools are being closed on Friday, mostly because they will be used as shelters.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Here in Atlanta, Channel 2 the sister station of Channel 9 in Orlando is really harping on this storm, It's been the lead story at 12, 5 and now at 6, and the lead anchor said it best..."a very, very scary storm" and they're forecasting the remnants to hit here late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Also, the FEMA Southeastern HQ is up and in full activation and will be running 24 hours beginning tomorrow at 7am and they're talking about Ga Power sending crews down to Orlando to assist clean-up.
Also, Delta and Air-Tran are cancelling flights to the Bahamas and we could see a cancellation spate in Florida as early as late tomorrow night.
And it looks like the 1st ACC game FSU-Miami may be postponed from Monday night to 9/11, the Fla State League has postponed it's East Division Playoffs ....
For those of us not in Florida, definately call any relatives or friends in Florida and get them to get out, or go by an area Publix and donate to the American Red Cross or go on line at www.redcross.org or 1-800-GIVE-LIFE, and finally send up a few prayers for everyone in the bulls-eye in Florida....
God Speed Sunshine State
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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I'm here in Sebring too, and getting more worried by the second. Don't know what to expect, but whatever we get is sure to be worse than Charley.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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things are getting pretty crazy here in jax,stores are packed,hardly anything left on the shelves at least in the store i was in anyhow.5 pm news announced Duval and St.Johns county schools will be closed friday,Flagler County schools are closed thurs and friday,emergency management says it will decide tommorrow if evacuations will take place, if so evac. will start friday. im not looking for a direct hit but by the way this track seems we may be in for a bumpy ride
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Quote:
Now he just said, "We're looking at landfall sometime around 2pm TUESDAY." WHAT?????
who said that?
if nhc did, then maybe there thinking a stall?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Latest wind field graphic available here:
Skeetobite.com
Special thanks to local Mets in Tampa and JAX for guidance on these graphics this afternoon!
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Agreeing with everyone else, the uncertainty of this thing is starting to make me real nervous. We live right on the edge of the major damage from Charley, which was about 10 miles east of us, about 25 miles SW of Orlando. My kids (early 20's) live in Port Orange, just south of Daytona. I was going to tell them to come over here, but now I'm second guessing myself. It doesn't look like anywhere on the Florida peninsusla is safe right now. I was in Port Orange for Floyd, and got boarded up too late to leave. If I had known then what I know now, I would have gotten the hell out of there. Unfortunately, I don't think were going to get a really good track until Friday. Until then, I guess I just sit and stew.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:24 PM |
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Re: whats up with link?
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/012053P.gif
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Well, we've all been tracking the storm for a few days now so we are getting hurricane burnout. I can't pull myself away from the computer but know that I need to take a break.
The hardest part is not knowing for sure what Frances is going to do.
Hang in there folks.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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I hate to say it but it looks like with the way things are shaping up Frances is going to be driving all of you nuts from here on in. At this stage it sure would be alot easier if everyone knew what the upper air patterns were going to be but it is still a guessing game. Is the ridge going to be stronger than expected; will the trough be able to pull Frances? Most of the time, it has become clear by this point which would happen but not this time. I want all of you to know that even though I'm sitting pretty here in Texas I'm most certainly thinking about all of you and hoping and praying for the best. Please be careful and try to take cover and BE SAFE!!!!
ShawnS
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:27 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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The Chief met for TampaBay News Channel 28....he said it while pointing at the graphic that showed 2:00pm Saturday, so I think he just made a mistake; not to mention he just changed it back to "2:00pm Saturday". I think he's just over-excited.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Can anyone give me a link to the ridge/trough/high pressure system so I can watch it myself? This seems to be the crucial thing to watch, and I don't know how to see it on the the satellite loops.
Thanks...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:37 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
so the billion dollar ?....which way....well don't ask the computers
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:42 PM |
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Re: recon
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URNT12 KNHC 012215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2215Z
B. 22 DEG 09 MIN N
71 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2549 M
D. 55 KT
E. 042 DEG 093 NM
F. 118 DEG 134 KT
G. 029 DEG 017 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 10 C/ 3114 M
J. 18 C/ 3110 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A FRANCES OB 27
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 2210Z.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:45 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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The chief met at 28 in Tampa is very good. If you remember the last storm, he was the first to point out that the Charlie had turned east. I saw the news today at 6 and I heard him state that based on the current track, Tampa Bay would not get any hurricane force winds. Get off of his back.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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where did you hear about the football game being changed? all that i heard was they would wait and see what the track was going to be because fsu wasn't flying down till sat.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Quote:
where did you hear about the football game being changed? all that i heard was they would wait and see what the track was going to be because fsu wasn't flying down till sat.
I should have said that the officials were "strongly considering" the change according to an article in the AJC newspaper.
Sorry for the mix-up =(
But, just heard on Channel 2 here that ABC and both FSU and Uof M officials are meeting and there will be an official announcement tomorrow about if they will play the game on Monday as scheduled or move it to 9/11(Saturday)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:56 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Wind Radius from NRL shows TB won't get Hurricane Force Winds (at the current track and predicted intensity, of course)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_gif_full.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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the landfall peg i set in southeastern georgia last night is staying put for now. moving the timeframe up to later sunday is the only change.. 3/4 status at impact. only additional reasoning i'll add tonight is that the northern modeling has been converging there, and that the storm has decelerated today and that makes me think it is negotiating a ridge weakness and has the opportunity to nudge nw over time. just my thought.. still see plenty of evidence that it hits further south on the east coast of florida, but going to stick with a northern track.
97L still has a closed low, sheared but vigorously refiring convection.. but nhc ignored it when it looked pretty good the other day, and will likely continue ignoring it until it develops an eye. most of the globals are taking it up in a ridge weakness near 45w later in the week.. still developing it. if it stays quite weak the likely track will be continued wnw in the open atlantic.
98L track began earlier today.. no dvorak on it yet, but the classic easterly wave with a vorticity max and easterly-sheared convection firing just ahead of the surface low/trough. another system globals are slap-happy about, so expect it to develop by/over the weekend. fairly low latitude, and it has a lot of ridging to work its way up through, so it may be something the islands are stressing over next week.
HF 2257z01september
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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No, he was not the first one to point it out. BayNews9 pointed out about 12 noon. They also began talking about the impacts of what the impacts on Polk County would be immediately thereafter, while Dennis Phillips had to wait to get phone calls from irate inland county residents and that was at 1:45pm.
You have your opinion, I have mine. Where do you get off telling me to get off his back when every other meteorologist is not forecasting what he is? Back off, pal.
Colleen, this is very stressful for us all, much less those who may find themselves in the bullseye, but no direct attacks or it's chop chop.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 10:58 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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its ashame that frances does not do as she is supposed too
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:01 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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And if things weren't bad enough in Miami, check out this story from WFOR-TV
http://cbs4.com/floridanews/FL--Frances-Radar-dn/resources_news_html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Let's put this in perpective as to TB: not everyone who watches TB news LIVES in Tampa Bay. I live in Lakeland, which is closer to Orlando than it is Tampa. If you remember, the inland counties were pretty much devastated in the southern half of my county and the southern counties below it. So to say that TAMPA BAY won't feel hurricane force winds is technically correct; but there are other counties that WILL feel effects of Frances if it makes landfall as of the 5:00pm track. Most other stations recognize that, but the only met that really does not even bother to mention the other areas in his forecast area is Dennis Phillips. So I have a problem with that.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:09 PM |
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Hurricane Audio...
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You can listen to the Amateur Radio Hurricane Watch Net live from this link...reports from Grand Turk are coming in on occasion.
Hurricane Watch Net audio
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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The National Data Buoy Center has a new(?) search feature...enter lat/long and radius to list observations from all buoys in range.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:11 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Well, then Phil, I guess you might have to tell him the same thing. I'm done with it now. I would have PM'd him, but again, he's not registered.
I was only answering his comment to me, if you want to chop me for that, then fine.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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wouldn't it be great if someone could just pick up this storm and throw it into Afganastan or something?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Yes, it has been out for over a week now. Came back briefly this morning, but is out again.
Bill
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:14 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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ETA's new landfall point
That's to show that it still could go either way up the coast, and it's not really quite the best time to try to guess an exact landfall point.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Man, the eye diameter is growing and growing,again. With every frame it gets even larger.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Sorry if I offended you. I do remember Phillips talking about the turn east before 12 o clock when Charlie was closing in. I will admit that he waited for an hour before confirming that the path was changing. Either way, lets hope some miracle takes this baby out of Florida and harms way for other states as well. By the way, will any insurance companies do business in Florida if this monster hits Florida?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:19 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Mike, how has the ETA been handling Frances so far?
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:20 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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good question! mines going to expire in october. I wonder if the renewal rate will go up? I bet it will....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:27 PM |
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Eyewall
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Looks like the replacement cycle is done. Anyone have the latest pressure?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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No problem...and I think that the best hope is that it does go parallel up the coast and then to the NE.
As for insurance? If this one hits, I don't know that they can NOT insure people, but the rates will definitely go up.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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Im supposed to be in Florida this weekend to visit my brother in-law. Our flight gets into Tampa 12:01am Saterday. My brother in-law lives in Orlando and we were suposed to go to Satellite Beach....
Should we still come and just stay in Orlando? Is that safe? Or will the flights be canceled?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:31 PM |
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Re: Eyewall
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Last vortex message from recon was at 2215Z, and it was 939MB. I agree it has finished this cycle and is looking less ragged overall. Also still on a WNW heading.
Bill
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:34 PM |
|
won't get in the gulf with this one...
|
I was only about 500 miles off or so. Not bad. Sure looks like it is tracking more and more northerly. almost tracking nw at the moment, and wouldn't suprise me if Hank Frank is right.
I thought earlier it would get in the gulf, but doubt it. looks like a Florida hit, but maybe it won't.
Kinda missing the islands around the bahamas at the moment....but won't miss the last two.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: won't get in the gulf with this one...
|
I'm getting off of here for a while...need to take a breather.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
we "used" to have a weatherman here too that went out on a limb and told everyone there was no way a storm was coming this way. that it was headed to texas. next morning everyone woke up with opal headed this way. don't base what is going on by one persons statement. with all that have to get information with use all of those resources. that is what the mets do. as far as no way tampa is getting hurricane winds.... based on the track probably not.. but i am probably not gonna win the lottery but i still got 5 quick picks
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:45 PM |
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Geez...and it fit too...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:46 PM |
|
GFDL
|
The ~00z GFDL is out, it really wants to pull it away from Florida.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM |
|
|
Frances
|
Email from a friend:
The NHC is now putting Frances ashore at Vero Beach or so. That's a 24 hour southward movement from Jacksonville. If that holds the Orlando metro area will get blasted like with Charley but worse.
I'm still forecasting a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window, the only Meteorologist (I think) forecasting that landfall, with no changes over the past three days. Even this landfall can still blast the Tampa Bay area but more likely a Sarasota to Ft. Myers window. A path south of Miami through the Florida Keys and/or Florida Straits is also "possible".
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:52 PM |
|
|
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Re: won't get in the gulf with this one...
|
What did Hank Frank say? I cant find it on here.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:53 PM |
|
|
A request & A challenge...
|
SkeetoByte will do up his now wildly popular maps with the GFS & GFDL models...what he needs are times, coords & windspeeds. If there is anyone on the boards who could provide him with such (like you don't have enough to do), he will then generate model maps based on the model progs.
If anyone can get that data in "NHC" form, that would be most welcome. Thanks! and Good Luck!
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:54 PM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
That water vapor shot is from January 9, 2004.
Seems to be a little early for the 00z GFDL.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:56 PM |
|
Duval County and St. Johns County
|
All public schools in Duval and St. Johns County are closed on Friday.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances
|
Quote:
Email from a friend:
The NHC is now putting Frances ashore at Vero Beach or so. That's a 24 hour southward movement from Jacksonville. If that holds the Orlando metro area will get blasted like with Charley but worse.
I'm still forecasting a Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window, the only Meteorologist (I think) forecasting that landfall, with no changes over the past three days. Even this landfall can still blast the Tampa Bay area but more likely a Sarasota to Ft. Myers window. A path south of Miami through the Florida Keys and/or Florida Straits is also "possible".
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
Basically, Mr. Giella knows what is going on internally at the NHC this evening? Vero Beach is further south of the 5PM forecast, which basically showed a Melbourne landfall. The track (internally) shifted southward?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:57 PM |
|
Models
|
Whenever there is a trough around it seems that most of the time the models tend to lean toward the trough picking the system up. It's like they are bias to the troughs. Sometimes they are right but sometimes they are wrong. I haven't seen too many models that would favor a ridge over a trough. Just an opinion.
ShawnS
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:57 PM |
|
Still no Hurricane Watch for South FL
|
The 8PM still does not have a Hurricane Watch for Florida.
Pressure holding at 938, 140mph wind speed, speed 14mph, WNW heading.
Bill
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:57 PM |
|
Re: Duval County and St. Johns County
|
they also closed schools in Indian River County (Vero and Sebastian) the difference is that they are to be closed tomarrow and Friday
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 01 2004 11:58 PM |
|
Cat 5 Rick
|
Frances still looks to be moving in a general wnw motion, best guess ~290 to 295 degrees.... not the 280 to 285 motion of earlier today, but not 315 degrees either.... IMO....
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:01 AM |
|
|
Re: Duval County and St. Johns County
|
Don't know if already posted, but all schools, colleges, county offices and NASA are closed thurs and fri.
In Brevard, that is.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM |
|
|
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Re: Frances
|
i think he may have "insider information" he has sure gave us some heads-up on info
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:02 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Thanks for catching that...I've edited it out.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM |
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Re: GFDL
|
22.3-71.4-looks like almost nw
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Frances
|
Well, it does seem like the eye is growing once more.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:07 AM |
|
|
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Palm Beach County
|
Palm Beach County schools now closed for the next 2 days. Originally tomorrow was going to be a half day in the a.m.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:09 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Quote:
Seems to be a little early for the 00z GFDL.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
GFDL ran @ 2327z
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:11 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Was the turn to the NW mentioned in latest advisory expected?
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:13 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Those 3 tracks would put Charleston (me) on the immediate NW side of the storm. Jesus, we JUST got hit by Gaston 4 days ago.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Quote:Quote:
Seems to be a little early for the 00z GFDL.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif
GFDL ran @ 2327z
...off of 18z data....so it isn't surprising that it mirrors the GFS...It has not run on 00Z data yet.
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Don't even think about coming to Florida this weekend. I don't know what frame of reference you have about big storms like this, but if it comes through Orlando as the current track shows, it could turn MCO into a junkyard. The airlines will be getting all of their equipment somewhere else and it could be a week before you get out of here. We just went through Charley a couple of weeks ago and were just on the edge of it, and didn't have power for 3 days.
Stay where you are...safe.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Can someone please post a slosh map for South and Central FL ?
| Chad |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Quote:
That water vapor shot is from January 9, 2004.
I think it's a typo on the image...
Look at all 3 for GOES east...
http://www.met.fsu.edu/explores/tropsat.html
| rjp |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:15 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Good thing I purchased some things today. May need a few more things... but this could turn out to be bad. It's unfortunate the local news at 5 was saying that it doesn't look as if it will impact us. While that may, somewhat, be true at the time, this storm could do anything! I don't think they do a good enough job of explaining that. The last thing we need is people being complacent. Don't want to alarm anyone either, though, I guess.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:18 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
(Off topic post removed by moderator)
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:18 AM |
|
Re: GFDL
|
Last two vortex messages from recon. The most recent from about an hour ago, and taken at about the same time as the sat images we are viewing right now.
URNT12 KNHC 012215
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2215Z
B. 22 DEG 09 MIN N
71 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2549 M
D. 55 KT
E. 042 DEG 093 NM
F. 118 DEG 134 KT
G. 029 DEG 017 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 10 C/ 3114 M
J. 18 C/ 3110 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A FRANCES OB 27
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 2210Z.
URNT12 KNHC 012323
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/2323Z
B. 22 DEG 14 MIN N
71 DEG 19 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2548 M
D. 65 KT
E. 228 DEG 024 NM
F. 321 DEG 119 KT
G. 230 DEG 016 NM
H. 939 MB
I. 13 C/ 3120 M
J. 18 C/ 3113 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. .1/1 NM
P. AF966 1306A FRANCES OB 32
MAX FL WIND 134 KT NE QUAD 2210Z. GOOD RADAR SIGNATURE.
5 MIN N difference and 14 MIN W. That is about 3 West to 1 North. WNW is 4 West to 1 North. So more North than WNW, but not NW.
And these are only about an hour apart, so even a wobble could throw this north.
Bill
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:20 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Quote:
Was the turn to the NW mentioned in latest advisory expected?
Take a look at the last 3 frames in the IR loop....Frances has turned back WNW....that was a NW wobble we saw a little earlier while the eyewall was undergoing restructuring.
--Lou
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:23 AM |
|
For all you Wobble Watchers
|
The last hour of NRL sat pix loops from 2232 to 2332 Frances looks to be going just north of due west..... either that or I'm hallunicating from watching too many loops today...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:25 AM |
|
Re: best sat ever seen...
|
this is a gif file from yesterday and i have never seen something so cool!!!!!
this was yesterday!!!
vis...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/special_gifs/FRANCES-eye-loop.gif
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:28 AM |
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Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
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No, you are not seeing things. Frances is not even thinking about turning yet. Looks awesome on those NRL sat shots.
Bill
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:30 AM |
|
Re: best sat ever seen...
|
that is one beast of a storm..... AWESOME PIX
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:31 AM |
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Re: best sat ever seen...
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I've seen that too Frank, but it may be just another one of her wobblings that she has become famous for.
ShawnS
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:31 AM |
|
Re: best sat ever seen...
|
that was the coolest thing I think I've ever seen! It does make me want to throw up a bit though.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:31 AM |
|
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Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
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Indeed, especially the last visible shot.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_06L.FRANCES_ssmi_vis1km_full.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:32 AM |
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|
wobbles, eyewall stunts
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when the hurricane's inner eyewall collapses, a huge convective burst happens on one side, or it just feels like it.. the eye is going to jig-bob around. it's still going wnw... you can't make any reasonable argument that it has changed direction until you can disprove that it isn't just jerking around on it's generally straight path. has been gently bending right over the last couple of days.. will probably do this and slowly decelerate as it gets closer. the heights to the north are going to start rising again by the weekend, so i'm betting the terminal path will be wnw/nw.
it may weaken some as it gets closer. not much.. maybe some. for now it still has the potential to get a tad stronger.
HF 0032z02september
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:36 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
Jason, Would it be possible for you to give us a hint at what your forecast will sound like tonight? Do you still believe your West Palm Beach landfall will hold? I think it still sounds like the best area for a landfall also How do you feel about the Gulf Coast? Im alittle concerned, but just not sure what to really think right now with everyone on all the boards proclaiming a North movement, or a West movement, S FL hit likely, N Fl hit likely, no, SC, wait no Gerogia...ahhh its just so aggravating!!! Need a breather for now. Thanks in advance
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:38 AM |
|
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
|
See, I lost faith in myself. Darn thing hasn't started a NW run at all. It is still heading wnw...wow..that means it may still get in the gulf...
what is wierd about this whole thing..is MILLIONS are watching, preparing..etc...and just a small percentage...1% or so that have the poor fortune to get hit...well, just that percentage...their lives will be forever changed....
I am back on the Miami gig again...sorry...I know it makes some of you ill...ha!
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:39 AM |
|
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Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
|
I thank god that Stewart is putting out the 10PM advisory, because they refuse to address the threat to South Florida and I know Stewart will at least mention it. I was expecting based on info I heard that the watches would go up at 5PM, but as elluded to in the discussion they scrapped that because of the NW side of the storm. Hopefully, they will be issued tonight.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
|
with a storm that big, how is it possible for only 1% to be misfourtinate?
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 AM |
|
|
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Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
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Quote:
for now it still has the potential to get a tad stronger.
hmmmm....looks like that might already be starting. Once again, the convection is deepening and the storm itself is becoming more symmetrical. Watch for another pressure drop in the coming hours...
-Lou
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:40 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
At 5 and 6, I outlined the current situation, and described the effects on our area from the current NHC track...I also showed the spaghetti plot from 12z, and showed that they NHC track is by no means set in stone, and that track adjustments are certain, just the direction of the adjustments are uncertain.
You guys generally get more insight from me than my viewers do...I have more time to talk here!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:44 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
I'm in Neptune Beach (right outside Jacksonville). I'm hoping that this massive storm somehow doesn't hit my home. Are any of the tracks showing it hitting this area straight on (please oh please say no!)?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:47 AM |
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Re: best sat ever seen...
|
was told was the "hmm dog" mode was used!!! (superscan)
waiting on todays pix.....
notice ....the donut close to center and how the eye sucked in the tops towards center.....
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:49 AM |
|
|
Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy
|
I have been watching sat loops, model loops, spaghetti models, etc. and now I dizzy and probably a little sea sick. I began feeling a little better today (here in Charleston) as the models began converging on a single solution, and now they are diverging again. This was a beautiful storm to look at over the open ocean, but I now ready to see this one go away. It looks like the models are beginning to shift toward the north again. Frances still has not made a turn, but I will definately keep a watchful eye on this one. Is a run up the entire east coast possible with this storm?
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
And we, or at least I, appreciate everybody's insight greatly. I also want to thank John, Mike, Ed and additional moderaters LI Phil and HankFrank for helping make this forum a great place for people interested in the tropics to express opinions and ask questions. Thank You.
As for the storm, it definitely looks as if it's eye-wall cycle is ending and the Frances is getting better organized, which is bad news for all of us in Florida and the Bahamas, or more specifically, the future strike point(s) and surrounding areas.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-bd-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:53 AM |
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Remember betsy in 65,almost same area,moved nw,stopped moved sw,then west thru the keys,nw to neworleans.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:55 AM |
|
|
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Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
Here is a quote from the latest tropical discussion which suggests furthur strengthening is beginning to occur:
>>>THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...COLDER THAN ABOUT -70C...ARE ONCE AGAIN
WRAPPING ENTIRELY AROUND THE EYE AND IT SEEMS THAT THE
SHORT-TERM TREND IS FOR THE STORM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STATUS
OR EVEN GAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...WATER TEMPERATURES
AROUND 29C NEAR THE STORM BECOME INCREASINGLY WARMER NEAR THE
BAHAMAS AND OFF THE SE FLORIDA COAST...AS HIGH AS 32C...SO ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS IT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY
THAT THIS HURRICANE WILL LOSE MUCH STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TO THE
NW<<<<<<
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:56 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
this is a water vapor loop..... i been using for a while.... think is best out there....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_wv_loop.html
note The -24°C line (blue) of the GOES-12 water vapor channel (Ch3)
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
Thanks Jason, I agree for sure. Many uncertainties remain but even with the NHC forecast for now me and you would both see at least an increase in wind and thunderstorms (you more so than me), but any shift in the track and it could be sunny, or we could have a hurricane knocking along the Panhandle.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:57 AM |
|
|
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Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
I dont think at the moment anything is set in stone. I personally an not seeing any signifigant turn to the north. maybe slightly but nothing that would steer it to sc area. My personal opinion is that the eye will go very close just above occechobee and eventually downgrade into the gulf after crossing over. Im probably way off but thats what im seeing. lets wait and see what the latest says shortly.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:02 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
this goes with the cloud tops.... look at yellows
http://antares.esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI3_ir_loop.html
IR color tops
she gaining....
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:03 AM |
|
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
The NHC forecasts are known for their excellence in these parts of the tropics. They just know the dynamics very well, after a while everything becomes second nature
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:03 AM |
|
Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
Cantore's in Daytona...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:03 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Okay Recon has departed for now. Could someone refresh my memory on the depths of the ocean ahead of the track. I seem to remember a place called the "Tongue of the Ocean" that's over 5000ft deep. Just wondering how a deep water pass would compare to a shallow water, i.e. south of the Bahamas, pass in terms of intensity.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 AM |
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Re: For all you Wobble Watchers
|
nothing else needs to be said-he is where the action is!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:07 AM |
|
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Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
|
I heard the 5:00 PM news conference on the radio. They addressed it there. Said they did not issues watching because it was slowing down but will probably do it tonight or in the morning advisory.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:08 AM |
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|
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Cantore
|
Exception: Floyd. He was Florida's "shield" for that one. Floyd redux? More to come...
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:08 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
I have a question for some pro's or someone who know's more about models than I do. Ok, we all know that strong hurricanes, (and Im pretty sure you can classify this a strong hurricane) they tend to strengthen the ridge thats above them correct? My question is, Do the models understand this or are they able to predict if this is occuring. I really dont understand how they are turning so far north. Do they think the weak trough in the east right now will weaken the ridge and cause a turn? The trough looks to be lifting out quickly and becoming zonal, so wouldnt that mean less effect on the ridge? Any insight would be very helpful, Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:10 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
this is another shot that will blow everyone's mind!!!!!
note....where the shallow water is...light green...
can you picture this???? yesterday
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:12 AM |
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|
|
from left field
|
no more dvorak on 97L (for now at least).. but 98L has scored its first with a 'too weak'.
inner eyewall has collapsed in the last couple of hours. outer eyewall slowly contracting inward. pressure will probably bottom out again tonight.. but it's been fairly steady within 3mb or so of 938 for the last 36 hours, eyewall cycles or no.
been thinking on this... storm isn't a floyd-size storm (those big atlantic storms tend to weaken to cat 2/3 as they near the east coast).. not a tightly wound charley/andrew type storm either... size is about middling. i'd expect it to maintain intensity fairly well to the coast, and probably a good ways inland.
HF 0112z02september
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
|
Quote:
I heard the 5:00 PM news conference on the radio. They addressed it there. Said they did not issues watching because it was slowing down but will probably do it tonight or in the morning advisory.
That's not quite true. Max Mayfield said no watches were issued at 5pm because recon reports indicated that the windfield had contracted a bit, giving the forecasters a bit more time for decision making.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:17 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
No, don't do that!!! My husband is there!!!
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:21 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
|
Oh! Sorry- but you know what I mean.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:21 AM |
|
|
|
11:00 will be telling...
|
I think that if NHC decides to issue watches at 11:00, they're pretty sure it's a FL hit. If there are no watches, they're either unsure of landfall OR may have it making the northward turn.
I'd still stick with the official track, and whatever track they have progged at 11:00.
I'm not going to issue the sure-to-be-crow-munching forecast tonight. Far too much uncertainty still...gut says Nward turn but realistically (for now) somewhere in the Melbourne area (sorry Ed). This is one of the most difficult to forecast storms I've ever seen...especially for a CV storm, which are usually fairly predictable. Hope all you floridians are prepped and ready to evac if told to do so, and that your dwellings are as protected as can be. Hopefully it will all be for naught.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:24 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Frances in the Evening
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For all of you late prepairers.......... Lowe's and Home Depot ship "hurricane pallets" (batteries, lumber, etc) on a regular basis when there is a hurricane baring down.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:26 AM |
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Re: wobbles, eyewall stunts
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Yeah, I forgot that part too. Running at about 60%. Tweleve hour days. Sinus infection, Upper resperitory infection and having to clear debris and get ready to board up tomorrow. I'm wiped out.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:32 AM |
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Excellent forecast from Gary Gray
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He explains the options that he thinks will play out with Frances, on where it might go and why...... I highly recommend everyone read it to help you understand the complicated dynamics involved ... sorry Phil, he thinks the Space Coast, like yours truly, could be ground zero..
http://www.millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html
you may not agree with his forecast, but you will appreciate how he explains his rationale for his reasoning ...
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:41 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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I hear that indeed the watches will go up at 11pm
--Lou
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:43 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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From FSU
There SUPER Ensemble package that detects landfall near Vero Beach with re emergence near Tampa into the Gulf and re landfall as a 3 west of Tallahassee
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:49 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Where'd did you find that out; and as text or a graphic?
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:51 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Seems like NHC could use the extra six hours before issuing the watches. Timing is a big concern, especially if Frances doesn't slow down as much as the models/fcst say it will. If it does slow down as fcst over central and north Florida, there's gonna be a lot of flooding. My big question continues to be: who evacuates and where do they all go? Perhaps that's part of the reason why some schools are closed tomorrow, so they can start getting shelters ready.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:52 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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You're not quite right on that, not with the intensity at all. But that's all I'll say.
Access to the FSU Superensemble is limited to the NHC & FSU community; everyone else has to pay for it. The 0z run may have just come out, but usually isn't completed until 10-11p.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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FSU Superensemble is not available publically. However, it has been a pretty reliable model this year. That move does nothing for my confidence. :P The only time I am rooting against FSU vs a cane!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:53 AM |
Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Hello....new to the boards. Well, I just got some information from a FSU student that tells me that a dropsonde was faulty and the models were off for a few days. So now, they have a super ensemble which detects lanfall near Vero Beach and a re emergence near Tampa Bay with a secondary landfalling west of Tallahassee. Looks pretty scary to me...
-Brett Adair-
WBRC-FOX6 Chaser
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:53 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Right - Thanks
Thank you as well, Jason.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:54 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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The FSU Superensemble is very closely held...there is no public access to it...in fact, the only ones who have access are those in the FSU met dept, and NHC. I'd give my eyeteeth for access myself.
| RockledgeRick |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:56 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Here we go again! Much of the Space Coast residents are doing a full scale evac over to Tampa. Most people I talk to are leaving in the morning. NOW we're gonna hear a new path tonight that takes it through TAMPA?! Am I hearing you right? This is maddening!
| nppam |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:57 AM |
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Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy
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I agree looking at all the models makes one's head spin after a while, however, can anyone tell me where I can look at the FSU superensemble model? The FSU site wants a password to gain access. Is that model available elsewhere? Just curious, since I've looked at so many of the other models. I'm in North Port, Fl on west coast (thank God) about 15-20 miles from Charley's path. Got fingers, toes, legs, arms crossed looking for that northward turn (sorry Carolinas).
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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The FSU superensemble didn't fcst Charley to move inland south of Tampa - in fact, many models were trending west of Tampa less than 24 hours before actual landfall. Anyone in "the cone" needs to be prepared for some impact from Frances.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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I'd like to re-ask a question that was asked a while ago, I'm hoping someone answers. How can us laypeople *see* the ridge, and tell if it is breaking down or holding up? I have now figured out how to read the ULL fairly well (or at least I think so), but I can't figure out how to see the ridge.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Brett,
You and I know each other, but I don't see any way that one bad dropsonde could contaminate the models for days...I am very dubious of that...Clark? Comments?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:01 AM |
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Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy
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The hurricane stuff isn't on that website at all. Additionally, access to that website (for the global products) is password-protected, and there is a fee involved. The group behind the model went into business marketing it's products and development a couple of years ago and make a pretty penny from the government and other agencies based upon its information.
You can get some info off of NHC discussions or if someone here mentions it, but there have been issues with that recently and thus why I no longer mention it to any great detail in my discussions/posts.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:02 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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I'll repeat what I said the other night when someone asked about where to evac to. If you want to be safe, go to Kansas. Maybe that sounded like a joke, but it wasn't.
Actually what we are being told is to evac within your own county, to higher ground and a safer structure. But don't leave the county, makes sense, there is no way the millions of people that live here could actually leave.
Bill
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:02 AM |
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Dropsondes.... Big Lot Specials next month
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Can any one explain to me how the dropsondes can be faulty...
I would like to know the story on this one..... was it a bunch of em bad? I know they used more than one! were the bad ones used multiple times? how many of the model runs were affected? for how many days? was this a programming issue? and do they know how much stress all this model flip flopping has created? more importantly how do we know the ones they are using are good? what's this story all about.....
gee, I'm starting to sound like Colleen.... hehe
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 AM |
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Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy
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look at sat....this could be the biggest eye yet!!!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Quote:
Where'd did you find that out; and as text or a graphic?
Got the info from a met teacher at FSU .
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:03 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Jason,
I haven't heard any of that here at FSU...it was happenstance rumor around these boards a few days back, and I may have briefly mentioned it one day, but that's as far as it travelled. I'm pretty in tune with things and know all of the big guys here in the hurricane business, so I would think I'd hear about it if it happened. I'm not trying to say that it didn't happen -- just that I haven't heard anything to that sort around the department (and the storm has been the talk of the department) this week.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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That works too... I wonder if I should take a couple college classes at FSU... Thanks all
| nppam |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 AM |
Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Well, shucks-- the FSU model is supposed to be pretty good this year, but the public can't see it without paying. I guess we'll have to give those Seminoles another drubbing next time we meet on the gridiron. Georgia Bulldog, Class of '74
Yeah, it's kind of like those of us who pay to read Bastardi...the best things in life may be free, but the REALLY good stuff is all now PUSU
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:07 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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Quote:
The FSU superensemble didn't fcst Charley to move inland south of Tampa - in fact, many models were trending west of Tampa less than 24 hours before actual landfall. Anyone in "the cone" needs to be prepared for some impact from Frances.
Maybe I had bad info then. I had heard that the Superensemble had been to the right of Tampa on most of the runs for Charley. Maybe the info I got was worng/.
| PFSThunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:08 AM |
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Re: Models Converge and Diverge - I'm dizzy
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This is a good analysis of the models and ongoing WNW trend. Good read!!!!!
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/hurricanes.htm
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 AM |
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Pretty good loop...
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http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/frances.html
About 24 frames so high speed connection is a plus.
It's nice to have a longer loop to look at, movement is pretty steady WNW.
For the jog police, last few frames show a decent jog back to the left though.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:14 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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I'll admit that there may have been a bad dropsonde. But I get all the Hurricane Hunter drop data, and I count 153 drops int the last 3 days. This doesn't include the NOAA P-3 or Gulfstream IV drops. So yes I can see they may have had a bad sonde. That would put it at 0.0065%
They are going to have to do better than that.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:18 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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The thing is, all of that data is quality controlled before it goes into the models. If there was a bad sonde, it would be removed before even getting into the models. That may cause a lack of data, but they launched so many of those in such a small area that it shouldn't make that much of a difference. I'm not saying it isn't possible, but it reeks of irresponsibility (on all parts) if so.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:24 AM |
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Watches
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Looks like they are going up at 11 pm from Florida City northward.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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Thanks Teal61, that is an awesome sat picture....
Frances is beautiful and, dangerous.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: 11:00 will be telling...
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The FSU Super may have been south of Tampa for most of the time w/ Charley. I just know what I heard and saw in the 12-36 hours leading up to actual landfall. I believe NHC did a great job of trying to maintain a steady course, despite some crazy variabilities in some of the model data.
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:27 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200406.disc.html
11:00 P.M. discussion just up
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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11 PM Is out... Same Course maybe a little more south..
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:31 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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And once again Stacy explains it well...including the phantom dropsonde problem....
| ShaggyDude |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:32 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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Indeed, he explains his discussions in a concise and informative manner, if not a little ominous for us here.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:33 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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Well from what I read on the wxunderground discussion, two words fly into my mind..."Ay Carumba!"
Does this mean that this storm may increase to a CatV before landfall?
Also, they just said on the weather channel that a Hurricane Watch is in effect at 11pm from Florida City to Flagler Beach.....
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:36 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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85% or so of the Florida east coast is now under a hurricane Watch, plus Lake Okeechobee. The area south to the 7 Mile Bridge is under a T.S. watch as well. Leads me to believe they still really aren't sure about the path, though they are pretty sure about Florida.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:38 AM |
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11pm Discussion
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Very interesting section of the discussion...still very concerned down here in Ft. lauderdale
"The Gulfstream-IV jet and an afres c-130
have been releasing dropsondes around the periphery of Frances. The
sonde data has produced some interesting and disturbing results.
The height data for the various pressure levels...compared to 18z
surrounding upper-air data...appear to be at least 20 meters too
low. However...the wind data clearly indicate a mid-tropospheric
high pressure center near 30n 75w...or about 500 nmi northwest of
Frances with a ridge axis extending west-southwestward across North
Florida and into the northeast Gulf of Mexico. In the short term...
this would suggest that Frances should continue moving at 295 or
even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so. Also...00z
upper-air data indicate that the 18z NOGAPS and 12z UKMET models
have verified the 00z 500 mb ridge and heights the best...while the
18z GFS and GFDL models were much too weak...at least 20 meters too
low...with the strength of the ridge. Since the 00z model runs will
have the new GPS dropsonde data included in those runs for the 06z
advisory...no significant change is being made to the previous
forecast track. However...with high pressure located to the
northwest of Frances...I would not be surprised to the 00z model
tracks shift a little more westward."
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:39 AM |
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Three Key Statements from Stewart..... did you catch em Florida
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""Frances has been moving west-northwestward for the past 24 hours under the influence of the subtropical ridge to the north...which is expected to remain intact through at least 48 hours.""
""In the short term...this would suggest that Frances should continue moving at 295 or even 290 degrees motion for the next 24 hours or so""
""However...with high pressure located to the northwest of Frances...I would not be surprised to the 00z model tracks shift a little more westward....""
These three statements DO NOT BODE well at all for the State of Florida.... I don't think this will be a Floyd redo...
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:40 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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So...am I to understand from the 11pm discussion that they are now acknowledging that the GFDL and GFS models have been flawed in their Northward implication?
--Lou
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:41 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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If you look at the track, a wobble to the left a little and South Fl could have hurricane force winds.. So I think its better to error on the side of caution.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:43 AM |
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Outflow Improving
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Looking at the Water Vapor loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
The outflow on the west side of the storm, which had been restricted much of the day, is becoming re-established.....another foreboding of further intensification.
--Lou
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:44 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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Now I am confused
The *models* shifted right but the strike probabilities are the same as they were this afternoon.
Someone, please unconfuse me.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Dropsondes
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BabyCat,
The models mentioned shifting right are already off and too far north, the new init from the Gulfstream jet is why those are being ignored now.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:46 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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I will try to provide some FSU model updates here over the next few days. Just please don't ask me how i'm getting the info . Thanks HCW
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:46 AM |
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Now it's a tad more clear...
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OK, that's now good enuf for moi. Tomorrow the "Phil's Crow Munching Forecast" but for tonight...
FL hit. (Sorry y'all). Too much data shows such.
GOM? No.
Will have an intensity & landfall forecast tomorrow. Early guess...still somewhere near Melbourne, CAT IV (yikes!).
To anyone in the "Cone", think about moving to (a) an inland hotel, (b) another state, (c) higher ground (in FL?) or (d) your nearest shelter...have the car gassed up and ready to go and your homeland security up NOW!
Everyone try to be smart and be safe.
The $100 billion question now is exact landfall and intensity...
Godspeed florida, godspeed...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:48 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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My advice? Don't...unless you want someone to lose their job. That info is closely held for a reason, and unless someone volunteers it to us, we are not on the need to know list.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:55 AM |
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Re: Now it's a tad more clear...
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I can't emphasize how huge the heights being too low is to the forecast. The GFS/GFDL track which were always nonsensical to me, now make perfect sense...and they are based on faulty data. The data that didn't have the dropsondes in it has been more reliable, and it makes perfect sense now why.
I am now thinking more and more that this thing may get in the GOM (sorry Phil)....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:55 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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Jason and/or Clark On stewarts discussion it kinda threw me off,, Do the 0z runs of the GFS already have the new data? or will it be in the 6Z???
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 AM |
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Re: Now it's a tad more clear...
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As fast as you were to target NC as your forecast..... don't be to quick to count out the GOM either Mr. Phil... it was never my forecast (GOM) but these things always have a surprise or two for us... IF the ridge remains firm for a extra 12-24 hours beyond the extended forcast, could very well put this thing into the NE GOM... and this has been alluded to by several professional mets thoughout the past couple of days.... time will tell....
one other thing, never surrender until ya have too....hehe....
and use some pineapples with that grilled crow.. gives it a tropical flavor.... if it makes it to the GOM then its a another helping of crow for ya to.... LOL
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:56 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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According to the 11pm forecast...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
My question is where will the warnings be posted?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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Quote:
According to the 11pm forecast...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...
INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SOME OR ALL OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING THURSDAY MORNING. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
My question is where will the warnings be posted?
5am tomorrow if it stays at 16 mph wnw
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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Then I guess the landfall is going to be earlier than predicted?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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Lil Phil, Not to be rude or anything as you are much older and wiser then me but I dont agree with you saying the Gulf isnt a possibility for a second landfall. You said if your in the cone, Be prepared. Clearly the NHC has alot of the GC in the cone so i dont think anyone along the gulf should let their guard down until Frances passes. Again not being rude, just makin sure nobody gets caught off guard, know what Im saying? Anyways, keep up the great post and moderating. Cheers
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:02 AM |
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Re: Outflow Improving
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The 11PM forecast discussion is not good news for Florida...they are saying the models pointing to the north are incorrect based on their current reconnaissance readings and that for now, 140 MPH winds is probably a low estimate.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/020225.shtml?
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:03 AM |
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Melbourne Weather Statement
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The Melbourne Weather Service has just issued an Inland Hurricane Watch for Saturday covering all of Central Florida. The local Met on Orlando television just displayed a graphic anticipating 100mph PLUS winds sustained in Orange and Seminole counties for Saturday. As I live in Seminole County, this is shaping up to be a nightmare scenario for me. My neighborhood is still buried under Hurricane Charley debris. In fact, just this evening, I drove through the mobile home community that runs adjacent to my street. There is STILL large metal sections of these mobile homes dangling high up in the trees. I shudder to imagine what will become of this debris in 100mph + winds.
A number of homes on my street have already boarded their windows (myself included). That is a huge departure from pre-Charley preparations...which were nearly nonexistent.
--Lou
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:09 AM |
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WOW...see comments...
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>>> I am now thinking more and more that this thing may get in the GOM (sorry Phil)....
>>> be to quick to count out the GOM either Mr. Phil
>>> Lil Phil, Not to be rude or anything as you are much older and wiser then me but I dont agree with you saying the Gulf isnt a possibility for a second landfall.
You guys are placing WAY too much faith in little ol' me. Two posts ago I said three possibilties...SFL->GOM; EC FL into GA, and Turn to north.
I wanted to try to narrow it down, and that was the elimination of the GOM & north theories...not at ALL saying no to anything yet...that's what's so frustrating.
Still will stick by no gulf hit, but is that set in stone? NO WAY.
This is going to drive us all NUTS for the next 24-48 hours.
Right now, I'm looking for some experts like Rabbit & scottsvb to post...they will have more answers than I do.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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Jason? Clark? I think you guys missed my Q. On stewarts comment is the new data in the Oz runs or going to be in the 6Z???? ty
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:14 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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Holy Sh---
I just realized I'm commenting on the old forum...
We all need to get onto the new one...
MY BAD
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:15 AM |
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Re: Melbourne Weather Statement
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Boy, I really feel for you and anyone in the east Orlando area. I was in Oviedo during Charley, helping in-laws weather the storm, then cleaning up the neighborhood afterwards. Prepare for the worst, pray for the best!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:20 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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Well phil Clark has been doing a Awesome job so far this year. I would listen to him also. Jasons a met and everyone listens to mets. I do have a dg in meteorology though.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:28 AM |
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Re: Now it's a tad more clear...
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I posted the message below at 5:44 today in the old forum but didn't receive any answers until the latest 11 p.m. nhc discussion. I'm glad to have it answered. Data errors! ugh.
My original forecast two days ago in the forum was for
Islamorada/Mobile based on the ridge not weakening. I don't believe it will go that low at this point, assuming the newest discussion is correct re the ridge a 290 track would be closer to Miami with Marco Is. exit, then skirt north between the trough and the ridge?
Re: 5PM Update [Re: kelcot]
#22690 - Wed Sep 01 2004 05:44 PM Edit Reply Quote Quick Reply
I'm still not grasping what is occuring to cause the GFDL to show such a strong northward trend. A storm of this size is slow to turn any direction, it's like turning a semi-truck.
In addition, I'm watching the "Mean Wind Analysis" and just don't see the steering capable of moving it much further north.
See graphics here:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
Best of luck to all near the path. Hoping it stays away, my nerves are just recovering from Charley.
-Bev
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:29 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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guys I would just to say that the FSU model stuff that I posted was from 5pm and I hope to have the 11pm stuff shortly
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:34 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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scitt, remember you laughed when i said this could become a cat. 5 and now it could very well be one, ch. 11 fort meyers just said because of the bad data this could be more west and south than they thought, and be stronger........
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:35 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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No..no..no..
this is not meant to dis you or the rabbit.
I totally respect your opinions and forecasts (will you be making one tonight, or copping out like me)...I know you are a met...and rabbit will soon be one, as will Clark...
I was just hoping more of the experts like ED (whose probably busy putting up panels on his abode as we speak) JK, you , Rabbi, & Clark could provide us non-mets with some more info than we can get from TWC & other public locations...that's all.
What's your take....GOM hit or no?
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:51 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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[Channel 9 in Orlando did a forecast for 11 counties on their 11pm news cast.
Where the storm comes in around Vero Beach 145 + winds (poss cat V) no one is saying that "yet".
as it moves through Osceola County 125 mph winds.
Orlando, 100+mph winds (sustained)
Daytona Beach area 80-100 MPH winds
in the path of the storm we are expecting 20 inches of rain ....according to the local forecast.
TWENTY INCHES OF RAIN. !!!! Wind damage aside, there are going to be some new lakes and streams in Central Florida come Saturday.
This, my friends is scary stuff.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:19 AM |
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Re: WOW...see comments...
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Which reminds us that there are dangers from freshwater flooding as well.
Gee 20 inches of rain...............where I used to live if it got that in a year it was only due to el nino conditions otherwise i was more 14 inches annually.........power in town would go out with our first rain storm each year.
Just be glad we don't hills or mountains down here.........mudslides are not good to be stuck in. Have seen my share of them out there in Cali.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:24 AM |
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New Thread
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A new thread up all new posts go there.
This thread is now locked.