MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:32 AM |
It Shifts Left
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11AM
Hurricane Warnings are now up.... From Florida City in Extreme Southern Mainland Florida, to Flager Beach Between Daytona And Jacksonville. This also includes Lake Okechobee. It is coming folks.
Hurricane warnings mean hurricane conditions can be expected within 24 hours... That does not mean landfall in 24 hours, just the edge of hurricane conditions. Today is the day to act folks.
Original Update
Good morning, as Hurricane Frances nears the Central Bahamas (Click here to read personal reports from the Bahama Islands), the latest projections are in this morning (As of 5AM) and the tracks shifted left, bringing the landfall point closer to Jupiter Inlet than Vero Beach, but still up through Central Florida into near Orlando... basically up the Florida's Turnpike.
Do not focus on the exact point of landfall, the deviation may be great up or down the coast because of the angle of approach!
The Hurricane watch was extended southward to include parts of the Upper keys and remains up north through Flagler Beach in Flager County.
However, Frances is a large storm, quite a deal so more than Charley in respect to pure area of winds and more. Do not take the point of landfall as the end all. It could be left or right of it, and depending the angle of approach it could be off quite a bit north or south. The forecast track has the storm moving painfully slow through Florida as well.
The fact that models are STILL split as to what Frances will do is also disturbing. Please don't take the projected track as the end all. From the Keys all the way into Carolinas. Hurricane Warnings will be issued today, and a lot of barrier islands in the watch area will likely be evacuated later today. (Please see local media/officials for up to date information on that)
More to come later today.
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida)
Miami (South Florida)
Key West (Florida Keys)
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:38 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Sorry, Florida.
Local mets are telling us here in Coastal South Carolina that another 24 hours will tell the tale if it will take a turn like some models forecast.
But, I just don't see that happening.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:43 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I would like to say thanks to all here.. the info I have found here is quite excellent. My question is this.... I am a newbie to FL and live in Clermont which is just west of the latest projected path. I live in a new single story home and was hoping someone could provide some input as to what I should expect and whether or not my family is safe in that part of the state......obviously if the path stays as stated. I realize we would be within the eye but I have no idea what that entails!!! Thanks in advance for any comments.
Scott
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:49 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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You're going to receive enormous winds with this track, easily 110+.
This is definitely not the storm that you want as your first (you don't want this as a learning experience). If I were you, and have never been through a hurricane of this size (not many have), I would board up your windows and go to somewhere in northern South Carolina.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:51 AM |
Re: It Shifts Left
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If you are in line of a direct hit and expected to be a Cat 2 at the time the advice to you and your family is LEAVE. If you do not leave then find a safe location and prepare for the ride of your life. These things are nothing to chance with. Best to you and your family.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:57 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Scott,
Basically speaking you are safer in a one story home if it has been built in the last 3 years, than you would be trying to evacuate to any place as of today. That is something that is relative to the landfall wind speeds. The higher the speed at landfall the more risk for anyone. The greatest threat from hurricanes before and after landfall is tornadic winds, no one can predict where, and flying debris which may have come from many miles away from you. The basic safe information is to stay away from your windows in a center room where there are no windows and hopefully at least one room between you and the outer walls of your home. Have flashlights, first aid kits, and cell phone if possible or other noise making object so that if the worst happens, you can be found as soon as help is available. We oldtimers in your area were just young chickens the last time anything of this magnitude happened here and frankly we were not in charge in those days of determining saftey. Follow your local emergency management recommendations and if you live in a prefabricated house or mobile home, leave when told to do so. A standard, housing development style or custom designed home built in the last 3 years will withstand good straight line winds with loss of shingles, etc. and if no trees or vehicles fall through the roof.( I am not being funny)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:09 AM |
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Hobson's Choice in coastal Brevard
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Betting on the track is dangerous this far out, but...
For Brevard coastal residents, normal 'let's go to Disney World' evacuation (putting one's butt directly under current Frances path projection) may be less attractive than riding it out. North looks better, but coastal north carries big risk of a slight kick right in the track.
Even if one could hang on to all options and not have to deal with 'no room at the inn' and clogged evac routes, the strategy may continue to amount to searching for the least worst choice.
Would note that Brevard high tide is around 12: Friday & Sat. Also that storm looks like probably a daylite event mostly.
| skippy1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:22 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I live in Stuart. Am ready to evacuate now, whcih way is the question? My husband wants to go to the Keys, he is concerned about lack of fuel going North. I am woried about geting trapped if it turns and not being aqllowed into the Keys as we are no longer residents there.
This is a wonderful website. Have followed you for several years. You are all the best!!
Praying for everyones safety.
Would appreciate any thoughts.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:23 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hi all, so glad I found this site! I'm in Boca Raton, FL and wondering about evacuation. I have hotel reservations in Naples. If it were just me and my husband, we would stay put but I have a 2 year old and I don't want her to have to go through this storm. I'm scared of the travel conditions, that we will be safe there etc. Wondering what you all think, those of you who have been through this. Is there a chance it will go further south and then Naples will be effected as well? Is it better to stay put? Yikes, this is scary! Our first major hurricane since we moved here 6 years ago. Charley didn't hit us at all, not so much as a drop of rain. Thanks in advance.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:25 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Have you been told to evacuate, then do so. If not, and you have a house that is built to code, then stay off the evacuation routes. If you have to evacuate, you really need to have a concrete destination in mind. This hurricane is going to be effecting every one at some point along the way, don't get caught in it and spend the time in traffic.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:25 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Well tell him this, if you go to the keys,,,think also alot will go and they will also be short on gas for the return trip and besides,,,look ahead, can you see all the traffic and delays of coming back up the keys with only 1 road? Nightmare 7-8 hour drive back which normaly would take 5.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:27 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Naples is a very good choice,, not the keys or anything from Ft Myers north till you get up north of tampa-Daytona right now.
| skippy1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:29 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Scott, thank you. I have a freind in the Keys checking with officials as to weather they are letting people in. Will post when I recieve this info.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:41 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Way to go, Guppie Grouper. YOu have the message right on!
Caveat:
If you are in the warning area, even if you have a 'code' house, you might want to consider evacuating. Very few homes will survive a Cat4/5, unscathed.
Go early! Don't wait.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:43 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Does anyone know if I leave fort lauderdale now if I will have any trouble (1) getting gas and (2) getting out of the state?
| crm9501 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:48 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Lis, not sure about your questions. We are headed to Naples later today. As of yesterday they had rooms at the Residence Inn there and they accept pets. $95 a night.
Hope this helps. Good luck and be safe.
| Fingers1116 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:59 AM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hey All . . .All of us up here are prayin for all of you down there. Pls take all precautions, and do not let your guard down. Question . . . As per discussion, her track may be shifted even more westward as time progresses, which tends to make me believe she will re-emerge back into the GOM. Also, I wouldn't think if she crossed the most southern part of the peninsula, theat she would lose much intensity. I know Andrew did not, even though he crossed the VERY most southern tip. Also, isn't it becoming a much stronger possibility that she could affect us here on the Northern Gulf Coast in a few days. Your thoughts pls . . . Thx
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:04 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:Please note the following 5am post by MLB wx bureau which I think applies to Cleremont:
I would like to say thanks to all here.. the info I have found here is quite excellent. My question is this.... I am a newbie to FL and live in Clermont which is just west of the latest projected path. I live in a new single story home and was hoping someone could provide some input as to what I should expect and whether or not my family is safe in that part of the state......obviously if the path stays as stated. I realize we would be within the eye but I have no idea what that entails!!! Thanks in advance for any comments.
Scott
...WIND IMPACTS...
THE WIND THREAT TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS EXTREME. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH FRANCES ARE NEAR 145 MPH...BUT SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL BE LIKELY. IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT
PEOPLE NOT BASE THEIR PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SOLELY ON THE CENTER TRACK
OF FRANCES. FRANCES IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND WILL THEREFORE HAVE
A WIDE SWATH OF DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK ITSELF. ALL RESIDENTS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA MUST MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT SOME LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE MAJOR
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WITH CATEGORY FOUR FORCE WINDS...LARGE TREES
ARE BLOWN DOWN WITH EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO ROOFING MATERIALS...
WINDOWS...AND DOORS. SMALL STRUCTURES MAY EXPERIENCE COMPLETE ROOF
FAILURES...WITH MOBILE HOMES EXPERIENCING COMPLETE DESTRUCTION.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST...THE
STRONGEST WINDS AROUND THE CORE OF FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
This pretty well states that 'his' forecast area will experience major hurricane force'. Act accordingly.
| Humanriff |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:05 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Yes, you will have trouble getting gas. My wife stopped at out "usual" gas station in Orldano at about 8:00 last night and the pumps were dry. I can only imagine it willl get worse today. During Hurricane Charley, only certain stations were open and there was about a 30 min waiting line. Try to find some place to fill in in Laurderdale so that you can make it to the GA line at least.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:06 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:10 PM |
Re: It Shifts Left
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I am in Savannah, Ga and have a wedding on Sunday evening in Santa Rosa Beach in the panhandle. I was supposed to leave today to go, but have no clue as to what I should do. People are still going and the wedding is being planned to be on. How bad will it be there on the other side? Should I still risk going or what? I would really appreciate it if anyone had any advice.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:10 PM |
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decision day...
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Today is the day many decisions will be made. Decisions made by the NHC, residences and Frances herself. She will be coming to a fork in the road. Will she head towards the WNW or will she make that turn towards the north. I believe unfortunately she will head towards the Florida peninsula. I think the ridge will build in and push her more towards south Florida. Perhaps the Ft Lauderdale area and then exiting on the west coast between Sarasota and Cedar Key. If she does go toward the north I believe she will head toward the South Carolina coastline. I think the NHC track is just south of the compromise of the two. This tells me that they are leaning more towards Florida but still leaving the door open on the eastern side of the models.
My call is landfall in south Florida.
| skippy1 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Do you have a number for residence inn?
Talked to emergency mgmt in Marathon, Keys they say there are no viisitor restrictions.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:12 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:Thank you! Your maps and graphics are MOST HELPFUL in helping all of us visualize the forecast effects for our individual locations.
Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:18 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:
Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
I can't Wait for the new maps to come out . You do a great job and are very fast at what you do
Thanks again
| JimAnderson |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:19 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Just a rule of thumb. Using the direction of storm movement as 12 oclock on a watch, the most dangerous wind damage area is from 12 to 3 oclock. With the counter clockwise rotation of the storm, and the storm moving generally SE to NW, you can expect (again VERY generally) that winds will be lighter on the south side of the storm.
BUT, also to be considered is that Frances is packing 145mph winds (NE side) which means the South side will still have winds in excess of 100mph. Not a storm to be taken lightly.
I suspect that the evacuation orders that have gone out are for the coastal areas for storm surge, not so much for the expected wind. If your house is built to code within the past few years, you are not in a storm surge or flood prone area, AND are not under a mandatory evacuation order, it may be best to ride this out. Take usual precautions, have bathtub filled with water for drinking, fuel for grill, generator w/fuel if you have one, board windows and hang out in interior room (bathroom?) during actual storm. Think tornados....
By staying put (again unless mandatory evac ordered), you keep from stressing the evac routes and shelters for those that really need it and you won't have the problem of not being allowed back onto your property by the local police after the storm.
Just my .02 worth what you paid for it.
Jim Anderson
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:19 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:Quote:Thank you! Your maps and graphics are MOST HELPFUL in helping all of us visualize the forecast effects for our individual locations.
Working on new street level maps and wind field maps. Will post ASAP.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:25 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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With Frances as large as a storm she is - there is going to be a greater area of impact. Please everyone take heed of the warning. Finalize your preparations today to either evacuate or stay somewhere safe.
Ticka1
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Several things to consider this morning ... Frances looks to be slowing slightly (as forecast). Track AND timing are still big variables ... if leaving town, reservations & preparations should already be made.
A survey of damage inland after Charley shows that most damage to homes was from pine trees snapped in half, and large uprooted oak trees, damaging roofs, mobile homes, aluminum porches, etc. and even some concrete walls.
Frances is so much bigger and wetter, and the possibilites in the track could range from going across Alligator Alley into the Gulf, to making a hard right turn just off the east coast and moving northward. Many of us have seen so many of these storms recurve at the last minute, but that's not a particularly good bet at this time.
"Plan for the worst, pray for the best."
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:37 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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According to recent recon storm still on a WNW heading, looks that way on satellite too. It looked like there was a small jump north but again I think it was an illusion due to the eye contracting again. Anyone think this could get as low as say 930mb or 925? 155mph winds? I think it may be possible judging the fact there is almost no shear to be found, SST's only getting warmer. We'll see.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:45 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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IMO, I don't see a CAT V. The way she continues to go through eye restructuring phases over and over I just don't see it happening.
ShawnS
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 12:59 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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well let me see... a strong Cat 4 (145-150) or weak Cat 5 (156)..... not much difference if you're in that eye wall.....
at this point I don't think I'd let that aspect of the storm bother me very much..... other than bragging rights (yeah I survided a Cat 5) it really doesn't make that much difference relative to storm damage in the long run at this level of intensity
I think a lot will depend on what stage its at relative to the eye wall replacement cycles that we've seen over the past several days... hopefully it will go inland on the down side of an EWRC, and not the upswing... food for thought
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:00 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Frances has held its own quite well in a dry environment the last 24 hours. Looks like it is indeed entering an area of higher relative humidities and higher SST. I think everyone is holding out the possibility of strengthening, especially with some slowing in forward speed. My prayers go out to those in the northern and central Bahamas right now.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:00 PM |
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Various Thoughts
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I finally went to sleep about 3am last night, but woke up at 5:30am (tv still on--eek!) to find out that what I thought would happen did indeed happen. Looks like Polk County is going to see some really bad weather.
I decided that I would take a trip to the local Walmart SuperStore to stock up on items and was pleasantly surprised to find out when I got there that water had been restocked, ice had been restocked and I was able to get what I needed. It also only took me 45 minutes to do that and when I left at 7:30 cars were pouring in. I guess I can be thankful that I didn't get much sleep. I feel much more at ease as far as being stocked up. I can take a nap later.
Polk County *may* be placed under a hurricane watch at the 11AM advisory according to Orlando's Channel 9.
To those that aren't sure whether to evacuate or not: the news channels are stressing that if you have NOT been told to leave, DON'T, because the roads are already clogged beyond belief. There was an accident on 95N by LPGA Boulevard and cars are backed up for miles. I hope people have enough sense to turn their cars off or else they'll run out of gas and I don't think there's going to a great supply of it up that way.
One of TB's radio stations had Ed Rappaport on and Jack Harris was trying to get a "general path" answer out of him, but he was steadfast in saying that he would not do that because 1)it's not a point and 2)it's such a large storm that it really doesn't matter at this point. He did mention that on the current track, inland counties will be hit pretty hard.
I am patiently awaiting the 11am advisory to see if this slowdown is going to happen or if it's just going to keep on keeping on. I know they're hoping that the race between the turn north wins out but right now I don't think they are even that confident in it. We were told that Polk county could expect 100+mph hour sustained winds.
I am also patiently awaiting to see what TB's chief met has to say this afternoon.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hi everyone. I live in Seminole County (Oviedo) in a wood frame house built in '87. My husband and I (along w/our 2 kids) aren't sure wether to hit a shelter or ride this out. I have heard we will be getting Cat 2 winds, and I'm scared our house just won't handle it. Any thoughts insofar as the wood frame durability? I sure as hell don't wanna be there when the sucker collapses (we just bought it in June!). Thanks, ya'll.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:15 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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ive noticed this morning that the GFDL has shifted running more in line where NHC was yestuday,was wondering how possible it may be that NHC moves closer in conjunction with GFDL
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:20 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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just took a look at those model runs that had it going all over and now they all have a south fla hit. they are just east of nhc track.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:24 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Latest map is done. Streets with wind field...
NHC ADV#34
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:26 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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anyone has the latest models.?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:27 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Tough question without knowing HOW its built.. One thing I know is critical, If you DO NOT have your roof secured with hurricane straps to your exterior walls, I would evacuate because you are in grave danger of your roof, or parts of it blowing off ... I don't know the building codes for your area.... now if I knew my structure was well strapped, every joyce, stuff, and rafter, then I'd make sure that every window was boarded up with at least 1/2 in plywood, securely fastened.... you do not want to lose a window which would allow the wind to penetrate your structure... even with hurricane straps, the wind could blow off the plywood decking of your roof... that is also NOT good... food for thought.... most well built structures should fare OK in a Cat 2 or 3.... Especially if they are well strapped... if you are in a flood zone, get heck out... period
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:28 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Speaking of models, looks like Hurricanealley is going to a pay service later this morning...any free options?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:30 PM |
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my thoughts and questions
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My thoughts...
First I'll try posting on my blog today when I can.. anything I can think of that anyone might need to know or want to know or just that I want to put there.
So...keeping this post short.
Going to work this morning so I will be posting very little online as I have a city job at the library and we are busy locking down the library and being there for all the regular patrons. More on this in my blog.
Point here is that everyone sees this storm doing what their own "worst case scenario" is..
My brother sees it going west soon into Miami.
My best friend Sharon thinks this is Ft Lauderdale's storm.
Friends online insist it will stay north and come in further up the coast.
Friends in South Carolina are worried.
What does it mean "a more southerly landfall" ???
Broward county just issued evacuation orders and had a press conference based on "new data" but no one seems to give the exact data.
As Kamal says... we are expecting surprises within the cone so that is not "unexpected"
The Summer of the Cone.
So... my question to you all here.. all of you who really know your stuff.
Is the storm slowing now because it has found
1) a temporary weakness in the high
2) it has reached the end of the high
3) is stuck with steering currents on all sides
4) all of the above
Because in my opinon its not impt what it does now as much as what it does tomorrow. And... so far believe the high is forecast to build back in stronger..
Would like to see Bastardi's scenario play out. Like to believe WxAmerica is right and it will stay to the left (leave a door open for offshore that way) and SNONUT who has insisted on right of track..
Hope so...
Reading what you are all saying.
So...someone please tell me
Is the storm going to stall?
Temporarily?
Will go watch better computers at work and give my thoughts later on a break.
Watching and waiting in Miami.. everyone is very cautious.
We remember Andrew... Betsy... Charley.
Hope for the best.. prepare for the worse...
Watch the storm.
NHC is doing a good job.. all and all.. but its common to somewhere make a mistake... will it be track? speed? intensity?
Love to see them get this perfect ...
Going to watch a lot of Norcross later..will give over anything important he says when I can post.
Pray for you all .. Bobbi
refer to my blog for some tips and more thoughts if you have time.
ESPECIALLY... mothers with kids waiting watching and worrying on the storm and their kids and their own sanity. Wrote some special posts for you.
Thanks Bobbi
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:32 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Yep the GFDL runs off of the GFS which the 6z run of the GFS shows landfall near the Cape C and moves it thru Orlando and near Ocala then N. Lets all wait for the next 12z run of the models to see if they all come together (somewhat).
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:39 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hello, I have been lurking here for years and this is my first post. We still have a ton of debri in the yard from Charley here in Orlando. We have only a certain amt of plywood. My question is..which direction will the worst winds be coming in? I have a ton of glass windows.
Thank you,
Helen
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Depends on if the center passes north or south of you. Right now, it looks like the winds will be out of the east in Orlando as it is forecast south of you. I am growing increasingly concerned about a second landfall on the North Central GOM.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:47 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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I have a dumb question. I was planning to drive from Atlanta to Jax Friday, returning Sunday to spend a few days with my dad since it is our birthdays. We always spend this weekend together, but I should probably reschedule? Do you think traffic going north on Sunday morning will be unbearable?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 01:51 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I'm a single mom in Ocala, Fl. My boss and so on don't think this thing is going to come near us.. I have a 15 month old and Im pretty worried about the storm coming this way, we live in a prefab modular home.. although of course Id be going to a stable cement house if this thing does occur, What are the odds that it will hit Florida? Ive heard numerous thoughts.. such as it will hit ( on the radio this AM) but will be around a category 2. I've lived in Fl my whole life but have never been thru this
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I'm in Punta Gorda & would like to share what I learned from Charley's 145 mph winds.
(1) Protect your doors & windows. If wind gets in the house your roof will be damaged (at least) & rain will ruin your belongings. It's not necessarily the force of the wind itself - it's the flying debris that you need to think about.
(2) Brace your garage door. It's the weakest point & if it caves in wind will get in. (See #1)
(3) Gas up your car, not just for evacuation, but because finding gas after the storm will be difficult. If the power is out it's hard to pump gas. You'll need to drive for supplies.
(4) Cell phones don't work when towers have been blown over. Communication could be next to impossible & you'll need gas to drive in order to check on people & to try to arrange for assistance.
(5) If you don't want to go to a shelter before the storm, you may want to afterwards. We had no water or phone service for a week & no power for 10 days.
Please, if you are in a mobile home, do not stay. Our frame house, well-built in 1990, survived (I believe) because we have excellent storm shutters on every opening & a double-braced garage door.
I hope this info will help somebody.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:05 PM |
Re: It Shifts Left
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I've been following this forum for the past day or so and even though I know you all aren't builders, I have a question.....
My 3000 sq ft house was built in '68, completely concrete block with 3 different flat roof levels - tar and rock roof. I'm on a peninsula surrounded on 3 sides by Lake Down. I've got 40 sheets of plywood and starting to board up now, because I have 13 sets of sliding glass doors on the south and west side of my house, 2 sets of which are topped with 4 x 8 fixed transomes looking west. One of those got smashed by an awning during Charlie and is boarded up already. (A second round of facing a $7800 deductible is WAY more than the $1000 to board up my house!) The north and east sides are almost completely without windows, or nothing major, anyway. And I'm situation behind another house to my east but I have 2 huge very old pines and 3 huge very old Live Oaks.
My question is about inland lake flooding and flat roof structures. Those are the 2 areas I can't find any info about. I've only lived here since '91 and never imagined I'd be concerned about the strength of even THIS house!! The water is WAY up as of the past few storms since Charley, so we couldn't even cut the grass any more. I have flood ins because I'm DEFINITELY low!. As for the roof, I'm concerned about limbs puncturing it as was the case in some friend' homes with pitched roofs.
If this is the wrong place to ask about this, please let me know where to go for info or email me @dzinermw@hotmail.com. Either way, my son and I are flying out tomorrow AM after I board up today!
Thanks for being here! You are all gifted souls and appreciated tremendously!!!
Let's all just keep praying!!!
| cooljunkie |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:10 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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If I am in Miami and assuming that the storm passes somewhere North of me, I hypothesize that the wind will start hitting me coming from the North, then it will shift to the North West and get stronger, then drop off and at the end it will be coming from the West. Is that correct?
Does anybody have any suggestions for data that I could use to estimate the wind speeds depending on how close it comes to me? I'm in a high rise in Miami Beach but I'm trying to decide whether to move to another place in Miami or to a shelter.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hey all apologies for the site going up and down like mad, record traffic despite efforts to distrubute bandwidth, is nailing us. Trying to keep it up so if it goes down it should be back up shortly again.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:20 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:
Latest map is done. Streets with wind field...
NHC ADV#34
Awesome map Skeetobite! Great job - can I put this link up on my message board for the Florida members?
Colleen - good deal on your trip to Walmart - now at least that is one less thing to worry about.
Everyone in Frances path - God Bless and stay safe.
Ticka1
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:21 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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thanks Mike, doing a great job...
wind fields at 5:00 am per the NHC...
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
if you know how far you are from the eye, you can get a good idea of what to expect based on the wind field data listed above... could change depending on intensity cycles, as well as overall storm size..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:32 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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Hi I live in Jacksonville Florida. Things are already getting crazy with everyone making their preparations. The traffic is expected to get very bad as people from S. Florida drive up 95 and Jacksonville makes their preparations. I suggest avoiding Florida this weekend if at all possible.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:34 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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Thanks for the advice. Do you have any feel as to whether they will have you all evacuate mandatorily?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:40 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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You're doing an absolute fantastic job, Mike. I can't thank you enought.
Just heard on Channel 9 (Orlando) is that the watches will be upgraded to warnings at the 11:00am advisory and the met says that what this means is that "we've stopped playing around with this, it's coming, folks."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:40 PM |
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Jacksonville Update
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Too soon to tell what will happen in Jacksonville - no warnings or watches yet. We should know better tonight. However, the storm is so huge that we are bound to have lots of rain and wind one way or the other.
| c ray |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:45 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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Using the StormCarib site's "How close will it get?" feature with the 5AM track, the closest the center will get to us in Melbourne will be 41 miles. That would be after a couple of hours pushing inland. If that track came to fruition, any ideas how strong the winds would be at that point? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:48 PM |
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News from Jacksonville
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I can tell you that in Jacksonville gas stations are already selling out. I filled my tank at 8am. The only choice was premium gas. The stores are already packed, schools are closed tomorrow...and we are not even under watch yet.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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Quote:In MLB? Cat-IV. You are not far enough from the land point forecast, most of the storm still over water, you on the NE side of the storm and 145 & higher in gusts won't diminish much. Eve 40 miles from center won't help when the eye itself is 20 miles wide, or more and the wind field is 4 times that in hurricane sectors. If you are real lucky, you might get *just* high Cat-III but don't count on it.
Using the StormCarib site's "How close will it get?" feature with the 5AM track, the closest the center will get to us in Melbourne will be 41 miles. That would be after a couple of hours pushing inland. If that track came to fruition, any ideas how strong the winds would be at that point? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:39 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I realize that models constantly change with new information, but the UKMET model last night showed a considerable western track after Francis hits Florida. This was the first model to suggest such a path. Is there any merit to it?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 03:52 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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If one does not have enough material to board up all windows of a house, which side/s should one concentrate on protecting?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I am in Jacksonville. 95 North is a parking lot and has been since about 7 a.m. Gas supply is running out...I heard by this afternoon. I don't know which way is best to go at this point, since the storm appears to be as big as the entire state!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:09 PM |
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Advice from Punta Gorda
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This did help. We are all so focused on what to do before the storm, we haven't even thought about the days following the storm. Good luck to you with your cleanup from Charley.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:09 PM |
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Miami Beach told to evacuate
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According to the Weather Channel and nbc6 in Miami, Miami-Dade County officials have ordered ALL 320,000 residents of Miami Beach to a Mandatory evacuation.......
I'm sure the city of Miami will be next....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:10 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Looks like a northerly jump again.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:11 PM |
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to high rise junkie
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They are "closing down" Miami Beach and all barrier islands. Just came in..the order.
That means you will be told to leave. They will not come with guns to evict you but...they will tell you to leave and advise you that there will be no emergency medical or fire rescue available in case of an emergency.
It is best to leave.. move inland to a friend or to a shelter.
IF you do stay.
Move into the interior hallways of the building which are safer IF the storm comes your way and winds intensify. Go to lower floors rather than higher floors as winds are faster the higher up you go. This is ONLY IF Frances were to come in south of the landfall which should be landfalling further north.
Either way.. stay in interior hallways in a condo if the weather.
BUY a WXR RADIO NOW.. because they can run off a 9volt battery IF your cable/tv goes out.
later lois
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:12 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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The 12Z models should be coming out, but I can't find them. I did find the Canadian, and looks very bad. It takes the storm north along the coast, then turns it west across FL near Melbourne and back into the Gulf. That could be a worst case scenario as it would create damage up the coast and then across and then on the west coast and then another landfall somewhere on the northern gulf coast. OUCH!!!! On a side note, I have friends that closed on a house in Melbourne this past weekend. luckily, they haven't moved down there yet, but since they aren't there, they cannot board up their house. I have warned them that it could be heavily damaged when they return.
| c ray |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: my thoughts and questions
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Richard,
Thank you for your input. Live in a new CBS 1 story home a couple miles inland in MLB, have the windows boarded, but the thought of riding out Cat IV winds does not appeal to me. Especially with the 11AM shift back northward, I think I'm outta here. 30 yrs. in FL, and the worst I've seen was the brush with Irene. Don't feel I'm gonna be that lucky this go round. Everyone please be safe.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Is that a wobble-I saw it on my local news also Fox 13
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: to high rise junkie
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FYI I'm mirroring the main page and spotlight page on the image server, so it won't "refresh" until every two minutes or so. ( Comment counts, etc) it will also say you aren't logged in at the top even if you are... Ignore it, soon as you go to these boards you will be "logged in" again". This is an effort to reduce bandwidth and strain on this server.
Thanks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:16 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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It may be more than just a jog this time. I'm not betting on it, but I wonder if just maybe that northerly turn ends up happening after all. Who knows?
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:17 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Will this affect Ft.Lauderdale/North Miami area?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:24 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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After closer investigation, I think,once again, it was more of the eye being a little ragged and restructuring itself.
ShawnS
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:29 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I've gone through the nervous, anxious stage and now, I'm pumped up and "ready for Frances"
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:35 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I am anxious to see the lates SKEETER production !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Clermont
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:36 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Just curious, what did Floyd's track look like a 24 hours before it turned? Were the majority of tracks in agreement that it would go into Florida or what?
I definitely don't see this turning at this point, but local mets are still telling us it could happen.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:36 PM |
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Charley Lessons... the hard way.
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I was in Arcadia when Charley's eye came straight through. It was still Cat IV and terrifying.
A few more tips:
1. Fill every possible recepticle with water. Tubs, washing machine, buckets. We had no running water for a week and then it was muddy for another week. Even if you don't drink the water, you can use it for washing.
2. A bottle of bleach. 8 drops to one gallon of water, shake and let it sit for half an hour makes it potable.
3. We reinforced our garage door by putting 2 x 4's against it and then backing the cars up to them to press tightly on the door from both inside and outside. We couldn't figure a better way to brace it and this worked. Lost part of roof but flimsy old garage door held. :-)
4. DON'T venture out during winds "just to check". One man did that here and was killed by flying aluminum and another did the same and was killed by an oak limb.
5. DON'T take for granted that the NHC forecast is right on target until an hour before landfall. Forecast was for Manatee County right up until an hour before it hit 75 miles South of the predicted landfall point. Not the NHC's fault. These things have a mind of their own!
6. If you start feeling winds, don't try to go anywhere. It's already too late. We saw so many people stuck in cars. No motel rooms. Not a good place to ride out the storm.
7. My ears popped and my head hurt intensely during the worst of the storm. I'd never heard of that and it scared the daylights out of me. It's normal due to the rapid pressure changes and it will pass once the storm does.
8. Get Cash. Get Cash. Get Cash. I can't stress this enough. Even when stores reopen they can't process credit cards without phones/electric. ATM's don't work either.
9. Tarps. Purchase 2 large ones in case you do have damage. Repairs are slow in coming when every single person needs work done, including the homes of the workers. These can help keep you dry over the weeks waiting for repairs.
Our prayers are with you all.
-Bev
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:40 PM |
Re: It Shifts Left
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Scott, I think you would be fairly safe in a 1 story home, but I would board up windows and when it becomes really windy, find a safe haven such as a room that may not have windows. IF you don't have one of them, it is probably safe to say you might want to get in touch with the American Red Cross- and find a local shelter. Also, if you have a lot of trees surrounding your home, it is also advisable to find a location in your home that a tree wouldn't be able to hit, OR again, find a local shelter. These spawns of the devil AKA Hurricane Charley and Frances, are no joke!! Good luck and stay safe. Pray that my flight that I've had planned for 2 months now for my brothers wedding in NY doesn't get cancelled.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:41 PM |
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Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way.
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WELL SAID , BEV
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:42 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Everyone knew Floyd was turning. The question was when it would turn.
That's not the case with this one. This one isn't turning.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:42 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Okay guys- I'm in Atlanta and I'm suppose to be heading to Panama City Beach this afternoon. Any thoughts to this? Put it to mind that I am a hurricane veterin (I grew up in S Fl) and if it looks like Frances will be heading up that way- we'll get out. Do you think people are starting to take precautions there?
Thanks for anyone's input
Kelly
| UGAdawgz |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:43 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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what are the current coordinates for this storm?
last coordinates i have are 23.4 N 73.9 W
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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3 days ago I called for North of Ft. Lauderdale and South of Ft. Pierce HIt.
Last night I went to bed thinking how was I going to take my "Crow".
Looking at the track I figured "Stirred at about 145mph".
I will say I feel a little bit better about it today.
Be safe!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:46 PM |
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Yikes!
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Mike, you're doing a fantastic job keeping the site up...hadn't been able to get on for more than a minute up until about 10 mins. ago. Let's hope she stays up.
Can't reiterate anything that hasn't already been said...the most sage advice comes from those who have been through big storms before...so listen to them.
NHC forecast track is absolutely scary and they've been excellent with this storm before. JB is still clinging to the notion that this will make the turn, and if memory from early this am serves...the location of Frances by Abaco will be the tell-all. If north, he thinks it will turn and miss FL. If it tracks south or over...then it's FL for sure. He just posted another update and
"Cloud shots are indicating, and recon verifying that Frances is turning more northwest and slowing, and is now moving under 10 mph. I dont see why the course should be much more west than north over the next 36 hours and this means landfall is probably not before Saturday night, or perhaps Sunday morning for Florida.
This is not in any way shape or form an indication that the idea still on the board here is right, it means that it still has chance to be a good one, that the storm stays offshore and the land fall is further north. However that will depend on whether the atlantic ridge stays strong enough to steer it, instead of the hand off to the banana shape on most models."
Trying times ahead. My prayers and best wishes go out to everyone.
Hopefully the site will stay up.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:46 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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It would be advisable to stay put here in Atlanta....With reports of mass evacuations all through Florida and gasoline in short supply in North Florida, and the uncertianty of the track after Frances coming inland, it would be a better idea to stay in Atlanta and watch Glenn Burns or Ken Cook....
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:
Just curious, what did Floyd's track look like a 24 hours before it turned? Were the majority of tracks in agreement that it would go into Florida or what?
I definitely don't see this turning at this point, but local mets are still telling us it could happen.
The weather pattern for Floyd was much different than it is for Frances. With Floyd the strong trof was forecasted to push through, and it was basically a wait to see how close Floyd was going to get before the trof picked it up. Right now most of the emphasis is placed on the strong high pressure ridge to the north of Frances. Many models had it in a weakened state by now, allowing Frances to turn NW. However, like Stewart(starting to become a fan of his as well) said in the 11pm NHC update. The ridge seems to be significantly stronger than the earlier forecasts had it, and that's one reason why the track shifted to the west. Whether or not the ridge weakens or strengthens more will help determine if Frances slows down and where she'll make landfall. Remember many of the models had this storm crossing 75w at, or maybe a shade north, of 25n. Right now it appears that Frances will pass to the south of that, and if that's the case the models could shift over to the west a little more.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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What Joe B.'s thoughts on the future of Frances?
See my above post
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:53 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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That's not what I wanted to hear, man. This is an anual trip that my girlfriends and I always take.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:54 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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watching the weather... already have hurricane kit in place. will probalbly get an extra case of water when we go to the groc. store to get bar-b-que stuff.. sunday night and monday we will get some fringes (as forecast now) but if you gotta drive back monday you maynot be able to get back
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:56 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Plus there could be a second landfall of Frances in the Florida panhandle too...There really is no certianty to what Frances is going to do after it's landfall...and anyway Jeb Bush said yesterday basically if you have plans to travel to Florida this holiday weeked, just cancel them and don't come to Florida....Remember also, this storm is the size of Texas, and when the entire Miami Beach area gets evacuated, they are serious about it.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:56 PM |
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Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way.
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this just keeps getting worse and worse. I've just today found this site so please forgive me if I am doing this wrong. We are in Kissimmee and were hit pretty hard with roof/pool screen damage with Charley and no power for over a week. I have my elderly parents and kids to think about so we planned on going to Clearwater to sisters tonight since my parents need electric for medical reasons.(my husband is in the AF in FWB so we have no helpful men around) Now it seems to be turning more toward Tampa too, and to makes matters worse we just got a call from Shands hospital in Gainesville that they want my dad up there asap as they found a massive infection in blood work and need to take out the battery and electrodes they put in his chest (the day Charly hit no less!)He recently had a DBS operation for parkinsons. Anyhow, I am so afraid we'll be stuck on the turnpike trying to get there and wish they'd just put him in a hospital here. Anyone know how bad the roads really are?
thanks for any help,advice
Alicia
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:57 PM |
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Re: Yikes!
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Again still see no reason for the shift north, and the sat's seem to suggest the momentum is consistent...Pressures in WPB; FTL, MIA and keys noticably lower than others stations...also lower in Naples and FtMyers too(e.g. 29.94 in Ft. L and 30.04 in Melborne, 29.96 in Ft.Myers.)
Two keys here forward speed, does it stall?, will it go south of the track?..
So Far : no sign of stall and right on trac
Yesterday I was on a WPB land fall and then a twelve hour trec across...still on that call..
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 04:57 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I'm thinking that if the storm starts to head up that way, we'll take off Sunday afternoon or Sunday Evening.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 PM |
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Frances, Floyd and Andrew
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Here's a comparison of Frances, Floyd & Andrew. Unfortunately I don't have the computer skills of Skeeter, but if you copy each to a word processing type program and print them out, you can "overlay" them to see the similarites/differences in the paths. Maybe Skeeter can do this for us and put it out as an image? Skeeter, I'll PM you too, but that might be helpful. Follow the links below for your point of reference.
Frances
Floyd
Andrew
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: Yikes!
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Where can I see his ideas?
Quote:
Mike, you're doing a fantastic job keeping the site up...hadn't been able to get on for more than a minute up until about 10 mins. ago. Let's hope she stays up.
Can't reiterate anything that hasn't already been said...the most sage advice comes from those who have been through big storms before...so listen to them.
NHC forecast track is absolutely scary and they've been excellent with this storm before. JB is still clinging to the notion that this will make the turn, and if memory from early this am serves...the location of Frances by Abaco will be the tell-all. If north, he thinks it will turn and miss FL. If it tracks south or over...then it's FL for sure. He just posted another update and
"Cloud shots are indicating, and recon verifying that Frances is turning more northwest and slowing, and is now moving under 10 mph. I dont see why the course should be much more west than north over the next 36 hours and this means landfall is probably not before Saturday night, or perhaps Sunday morning for Florida.
This is not in any way shape or form an indication that the idea still on the board here is right, it means that it still has chance to be a good one, that the storm stays offshore and the land fall is further north. However that will depend on whether the atlantic ridge stays strong enough to steer it, instead of the hand off to the banana shape on most models."
Trying times ahead. My prayers and best wishes go out to everyone.
Hopefully the site will stay up.
Go to Accuweather.com, sign up for the free 30 professional (not premium) service. You can cancel at the end of the 30 days. All you need is a credit card.
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:02 PM |
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Re: Charley Lessons... the hard way.
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Maybe the best is start with Shands...if your dad needs to be there asap, then possibly they can arrange transport by ambulance. All you can do is work through this one step at a time. Probably not good, though, to risk having a seriously ill patient stuck on the turnpike.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:07 PM |
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NW all the way!
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I've been going over the sat. loops and, IMO, Frances has settled on a NW track. We may have seen the last of the jogging back and forth ( north than west) that she is going to do. Just an opinion.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:10 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Many, many thanks for all your valuable info. Here in Arcadia, Charley only left two holes my roof. At least there is a roof.
We are trying to secure debris piles. I know how slammed you all are, but I have looked everywhere for this info and can't find it. Could you help us all by telling us which direction the strongest winds will be coming from? It will help tremendously when we batten down again. This must be what combat is like, fight an engagement, regroup, and brace for the next sortie. Prayers go up for all.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:13 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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the local news said it looked like a lot of people were coming this way from south and central fla..i-95 was packed and I-10 had alot more traffice than usuall
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:14 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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are people starting to prepare in the panhandle. We're thinking that if we go to bring some gas cans with us and fill them up before we leave.
Kelly
| Kruz |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:21 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hi all. Been following this board since Charley. I live in Dunnellon, just south west of Ocala. I live in a mobile that was built way back in 1973. I have plans to exacuate to a friend with a block home but I am wondering what, if anything I will return to?
| crm9501 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Well, after much though, we have decided to stay put. Leave the evac. routes for those who really need them. Our house is secure and I have to trust those who have been through this before. Thank you for all your help, your advice and information. God bless each of you.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Is anyone else shocked that there are not cane warnings further South ?
Also when should this storm slow down ?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:25 PM |
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Thanks, Mike
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Just to let everyone know, Mike's been busting his hump to keep the site afloat and now it seems to be faster than ever. Mike, whatever you did, YOU DA MAN!
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:31 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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Joe Bastardi is definitely right. This thing has been going solid NW for a few hours, and it's slowing.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:32 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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i was surprised the warnings didn't include the watch area (upper and middle keys)
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:33 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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Quote:
Joe Bastardi is definitely right. This thing has been going solid NW for a few hours, and it's slowing.
I don't agree. It's anouther cycle just like yesterday and already looks more west the last 4 frames
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:36 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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I respect your opinion. Anyone else think something else?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:38 PM |
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Re: traffic
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anyone know the difference in the Historical Volume and current volume on fla traffic graphs?
http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/?CountyID=10&StationID=0110
just click any counter on page
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:41 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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The effects have started.
Here's the bouy chart of wave heights over the past five days from 120 miles off of port canaveral.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_met.php?station=41010&meas=wvht&uom=E
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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Quote:Quote:
Joe Bastardi is definitely right. This thing has been going solid NW for a few hours, and it's slowing.
I don't agree. It's anouther cycle just like yesterday and already looks more west the last 4 frames
While it looks like a definate WNW (maybe 300 degrees) trend I'd wait another few hours to see where it's heading... and if it's slowing down... I just don't see it.
I know I'm just restating the obvious, but it takes at least a few hours to determine the motion of the storm.
Mark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay
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I created an overlay (although somewhat crude) that shows the paths of Frances, Andrew and Floyd but have no way of posting it. I dont have a site that allows me to store pics on for open viewing. If I could email it to someone for it to be posted that would be fine by me.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:45 PM |
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Palm Beach County
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My preparations are almost complete. House is air tight and everything in the yard has been put away. Weather is very nice, very breezy, NE to 23 mph so far. Today's low temperature was only 81 degrees. This shows the tropical air in place from the onshore flow. Not much of a temperature range today, high only near 90. I can't believe how many homes are still not boarded up in my neighborhood. Supplies and gas very scarce. Local radio and tv stations asking people to call in about where they can find these items.
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:45 PM |
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Re: JB
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I read JB every day and have been for about 3 years but...
I think Capt Joe is going down with his ship this time. And as far as movement goes since 0855z this morning the recon fixes have shown a solid wnw movement with some wobbles to the north and some back to the west, but the overall movement has been wnw. In fact, the fixes at 1430z and 1630z show a solid movement back to the wnw after a northern wobble.
I am a JB fan, but I'm not seeing a solid NW movement at all. When you are in as deep as he is right now you can find all sorts of little signs to point it your way but I'm just not seeing it yet.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:47 PM |
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Re: Floyd/Andrew/Frances overlay
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email mike@flhurricane.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:47 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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It looks like the Shawn's are together on this one. I don't see this movement changing now. It's been on this trend for a while. The only way that it would change now is if the ridge really became stronger and forced it back westerly, kind of what happened to Andrew. I don't think that will happen though.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:48 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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Still moving west northwest at 13-according to the 2:00 p.m advisory
| DJINFLA |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:49 PM |
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Re: Thanks, Mike
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Yes, thank you to all of you. I've discovered this informative site with Charley. Even though I check out NHC, all the insight discussed here has been worthwhile.
Now, on to the latest with Frances. Is it just about a big "no way" that it could still turn East (real sharply)? I'm in Sebastian, which hasn't had anything this huge since...? I'm really hoping for a "miracle turn" extremely eastward.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:49 PM |
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Stuart, fl
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Finishing up preperations right now still lots to do around my part, many homes not boarded up becuse there is no plywood left. I Have been secururing my boat and other people's boat all morning long still have several to go. Wondering what cound of surge i can excpect up here in the south fork river where i am located right now. I am typing this from a copmuter at the boat yard i stay at as i have been disconnected from shore power and telephone lines on my boat. will give some updates later when i am done securing the rest of the fleet. winds NE brezzy gusting to 25mph and sunny.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:49 PM |
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Re: Palm Beach County
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the latest advisory is out and shows almost more of a NW movement, although they are still calling it a wnw movement.
.4 degrees north .5 degrees west from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:50 PM |
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OK....
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I am in the office and getting ready for the night...
For anyone coming from S or Central FL up our way to evacuate, we are going to start hourly updates tomorrow just for you guys...we are the NBC affiliate for the areas between TLH and PNS, so if you want info, we will do our best to have it on the air.
Thoughts to follow as I get started with analysis....
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:57 PM |
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Re: OK....
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949? Wow, what a jump!
They said that it should turn NW in the next 24hrs but, again, I think it already has made that turn.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:58 PM |
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Re: Stuart, fl
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Any input............ If you had a choice to be almost a direct hit by the eye or further away but NE quadrant.... which one? Clermont or Apopka... single story or two story in Apopka
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:59 PM |
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Re: eywall
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looking at sat.... looks like eye wall has took a hit..... eye is almost gone....could this be a major eye wall replacement going on......also i think she has slowed!!!!!! last 1hr appears to slowed and maybe a little north movment.... recon only had 95mx fl winds while ago....pressure way up.....what is she doing?
she might fall to cat 3 at 5adv....
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 05:59 PM |
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Latest thoughts
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Here is the midday update from my friend Thomas:
Looking at the latest satellite images and RECON data CAT 4 Frances continues on a 285-290 heading at approximately 13 mph. Outflow looks excellent except I see a little impingement on the WNW side, maybe a little shear and/or dry air. Overall Frances continues with a slow pressure fall and increase in wind speed. She may flirt with CAT 5 status for a while later today.
Looking at all of the models, virtually all have come further west with a landfall somewhere along the Florida coast. Some of my colleagues that I respect very much still forecast a probable miss for the Florida east coast. Of course I hope that they are correct and while I understand their thinking I think that chance is virtually nil now.
It appears at the moment that Palm Beach is the Frances bullseye, the southern end of my predicted landfall window. BUT my original forecast landfall of Ft. Lauderdale-Miami may ultimately still verify. Also in my opinion a westward track through the Florida Keys and/or the Florida Straits is more probable then a NW-N track east of Florida.
A landfall at Palm beach would mean a probable CAT 4-3 hurricane across the inland central peninsula including the Orlando metro area, a region with millions of people and unfathomable billions of $$$ of property and then possibly into south Georgia. At this moment it's to early to tell where Frances would exit at into the Gulf Of Mexico "if" she comes ashore in the Ft. Lauderdale-Miami window. My guess would be pretty much a straight line to Naples-Fort Myers, then on to Texas, with a lesser chance of an exit at Venice-Sarasota then on to Louisiana.
That's my .02 for today but what do I know?!
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: OK....
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Rapid Scan Sat Ops are the bomb....
From the regular 15/30 min imagery I can see the "NW Turn"...but if you look at the GOES 12 Rapid Scan you can see that it definately a wobble...maybe a course resumption slightly more n, but still averaging WNW.
Eyewall replacement just completed, so we should see the pressures begin to fall again in the next few hours.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: Palm Beach County
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loop
i agree it looks in the last frames to be going nw more than the wnw but the eye starts to cloud over.. i think it is reforming again?? time will tell
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:07 PM |
| Attachment |
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Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna
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Attached is a track comparison.
Open attachment to view.
-Bev
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:10 PM |
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Re: Palm Beach County
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No disrespect, but a possible TEXAS landfall? Gimmie a break! Nooooooooooo Way that will materialize!
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:11 PM |
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Update
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from accuweather:
"Category 4 Hurricane Frances, as of 2 p.m. EDT, is centered at 23.8 north and 74.4 west, 410 miles east-southeast of lower Florida east coast. Frances is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 145 mph. San salvador in the Bahamas reported a wind gust 86 mph. The central pressure is 949 millibars (28.02 inches). A hurricane warning is in effect for all of the Bahamas. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Florida east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay.
Frances is moving west-northwest at about 13 mph. The thing to watch is movement and speed. If Frances starts to slow down then this will buy more time for Florida and could allow the system to turn more northwesterly, away from Florida. The system will be affected by eye wall replacement in a way that as the inner eye wall dies the pressure will rise. Then the outer eye wall will contract causing the pressure to fall and the wind to increase. This process takes 6 to 10 hours. So, don't be surprised to see fluctuations of pressure and wind speed. An upper-level ridge of high pressure to the north of Frances is the key for movement. Meanwhile, an upper-level trough now coming into the northern Rockies will interact with the upper ridge later in the weekend and early next week. Each model has its own take on the interaction of this eastward moving upper-level trough and the ridge. Basically, a relatively strong high to the north of Frances will keep it on a course for Florida, and all the data and observations we have looked at this morning and midday say that is the most likely scenario. However, a weaker ridge, or high to the north will allow Frances to slow down and take on more of a northwesterly turn, meaning Georgia and the Carolinas are in line for a landfalling hurricane. As for the timing of landfall, keeping the storm's current forward speed and movement, Frances will make landfall between Melbourne and West Palm Beach Saturday. A slowdown, and subsequent turn to the northwest means a much later arrival, much farther up the east coast."
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:14 PM |
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Re: turning north, please please please
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I'm still hanging with Joe B. Maybe a bit out of desperation. I'm giving him to Great Abaco to see if his requirements are met. I'm not ready to jump off that ship yet. Never the less, boarding up the house this afternoon no matter what.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:14 PM |
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Re: Update
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The second paragraph to the accuweather statement they've had up all morning, I think. The first paragraph is what is always updated with the new advisory.
ShawnS
That's true, but I'm guessing not a lot of people read it.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:17 PM |
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Re: OK....
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Quick review of the water vapor seems to indicate that Frances is taking a hit wit some southerly shear, that is eminating from that pesky and still slowly retreating ULL that is now out to about 85W...that could also explain the NW movements of the last three hours...3hr coord's storm moved .4 n and .5 w...6hr .6 n and .9 w. so the official is still wnw...probably a temporary adjustment as the upper air currents are more e/w just ahead.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:20 PM |
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Dvorak's
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02/1730 UTC 9.8N 27.7W T1.5/1.5 98
02/1745 UTC 18.9N 41.6W TOO WEAK 97
02/1745 UTC 23.8N 74.2W T6.0/6.5 FRANCES
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:21 PM |
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Re: OK....
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Just a comment about the SC/NC scenario, the window is almost closed on it. It's not impossible, but it's not very likely either. Actually, I think It may shift a bit more left even. Right now its going through another eyewall replacement cycle best I can tell, so you really can't get a good idea of "jogs" when that's happening.
| Artsy Fartsy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:23 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna
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Here is another track comparison.
See Attached.
Sorry for how crude it looks but it was quickly thrown together just for reference.
Thanks a bunch!
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:23 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Track Comparison - Andrew, Floyd, Frances, Donna
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Here's another one I just jury rigged up at home via Photoshop. Apologize for quality, trying to keep it simple for dial up users at home, and the original scales weren't linearly compatible.
Click the attachment to view.
Londovir
And thank you too!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:30 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I am scheduled to fly out of Orlando International Airport on Saturday at 12 noon. How likely is it that my flight will be cancelled? Where will Frances be at 12 noon on Saturday?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:30 PM |
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Eye Replacing
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Just a question I have. Would the track really change? Let's say it stays on the WNW track, which I still think is more NW, I could see the track maybe switching to the left some. BUT, with the eye replacements continually happening to the NW, wouldn't that just more less even things out? This I need help on.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:35 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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is Hurricane Frances going to be a cat 5 when it hits florida?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:35 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Fly home no later than Friday afternoon. Most inbound flights will halt soon after that. A road warriors advice.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:38 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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As to the airport: They are closing OIA at noon tomorrow.
From Orlando Business JOurnal:
OIA to cease flights at noon on Friday
With Hurricane Frances expected to impact flight operations at Orlando International Airport, the air carriers have agreed to cease passenger flights at noon on Sept 3.
High wind conditions are expected to affect transport of passengers between the main terminal and airline gate areas via the automated people mover system.
Additionally, all domestic passengers holding reservations for flights prior to noon on Sept. 3 need to arrive three hours prior to their departure.
For further information on flight schedules up to that time, please contact the airline directly. Normal flight operations will resume when weather permits and cleanup operations are completed.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:39 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I don't have any concrete info, but I would have to say that flights out of Orlando will be grounded by 12 noon Sat. The track keeps wiggling a little here and there, but most of the guesses are eye coming ashore around 8am Sat morning on east coast, but keep in mind tropical force winds are far outward of that, meaning the airport will be hit with those sort of winds long before that. I just don't see the airport being open.
By the way, I'm working on a program in my spare time here waiting for hurricane tracking. Does anyone have sites that report hurricane model data and tracking information in text format for download? I know some people were looking at GFS feeds, though I don't know if those are public or not. If so, PM me so I can check them out. I'd love to have some way to pull live data from the web into the program without me having to go hunt them down from 2000 sources. Thanks...
Londovir
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:39 PM |
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Why would it stall
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I understand that if the storm stalls for the weekend, it would turn toward the north.
What is the reasoning behind the thought that it would stall?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:40 PM |
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Airport Ops at Orlando
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My sources at Northwest Airlines say they are planning to cease operations at Orlando airport at noon tomorrow. I think that's a little early but they are taking no chances either. It doesn't look good at all for Saturday thru Sunday for any flights out of or into Orlando. At this point they are planning to resume flights on Monday the 6th.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:42 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Also a note that mike just added. We and the NHC have said it will slow some when turning allittle more nw, but then most models then push Frances onshore from 36-48 hours from noon today anywhere from WPB - Melbourne. So expect a turn back to the wnw later friday into saturday and onshore. It could basically move just N of due west Friday night into saturday then WNW across the state.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:44 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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OIA just announced that all flights will be cancelled after 1200 noon and you must be at the airport 3 hrs ahead of your scheduled departure time
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:44 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Hey Jason, Looking forward to your analysis. Im still going with a landfall 50 miles on either side of West Palm Beach. Probably at the strength she is now 145mph. Looks like either an ERC or brief dry air entrainment is what contributed to her weakening. Im concerned she might bomb like Charley because of the very warm waters in the Northern Bahamas. Noticed alot of 00z models shift west and put the N Gulf Coast at risk. Havent looked at 12z models but Im about to. Are you anymore concerned about the Gulf Coast now? Im begining to think I should start preparing tomorrow and Saturday. Might be a good idea.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:44 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Sources are saying that Frances could be worse than Andrew, does anybody think that could happen?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:48 PM |
| Attachment |
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Scary...
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See attachment
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:50 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Would someone please post a slosh map of South FL for me ?
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:53 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I dunno about a Cat 5, solid Cat 4 or Cat 3 sounds more likely. If she can stop replacing her eyewall every 12 hours then possibly because there is very little shear and lots of warm water, and high heat content near the Northern Bahamas and off the coast of Fl. I dunno about rapid deepening though, usually storms that blow up before landfall are small, compact hurricanes ie. Charley, Andrew. But ya never know. Just have to keep watching. Thoughts anyone???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:56 PM |
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Models
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The models are really starting to come together. I think we may have finally received our answer.
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:56 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I am somewhat doubtful that she makes it to Cat 5, since she really should have done so already...but I am not going to say that she won't.
And yes...I am very concerned about the possibilty of a reemergence over the Gulf and second landfall...
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: Frances, Floyd and Andrew
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Frances, Floyd and Andrew comparison graphic
I wish I knew how far the Hurricane strength winds radiated from the center of these coordinates. That would have been an awesome visual.
| Mark Bendiksen |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Forgive me lack of knowledge on this subject, but I live in central Texas and have never experienced a hurricane first-hand. I am scheduled to fly into Orlando (from Houston) a week from Friday (9/10). Is it reasonable to expect that Orlando airport operations will be back on schedule by that time?
Thanks in advance for your assistance. All of you who live in Florida are sincerely in my prayers right now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:59 PM |
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P.S.
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I don't think it will ever get into the GOM.
ShawnS
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: Scary...
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How did you get that landfall location? It's much more north than the NHC has it. Is it simply staying on the angle she has been on for the past few hours?
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 06:59 PM |
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Re: Scary...
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Their track is much more NNW than the official track. Sorry for the Joe B fans out there, but he is dead wrong on this one. The GFDL is even further west at 12Z. Still doesn't take it completly across the state however, but does have hurricane force winds all the way to near the AL/GA/FL borders.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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pressure up to 949 mb and poor satellite appearance--Ithink a weakening trend may have begun
also, seems we now have TD9 in the Atlantic
Frances weakening 09L.NONAME
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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>>> Would someone please post a slosh map of South FL for me ?
You can find them on these boards, I believe they're in the storm links section
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:03 PM |
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blink
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frances inner core looks like utter crap early this afternoon. that pressure jump to 949 mb is probably legit weakening.. i don't know what the hell is causing it, but the eye has filled and the eyewall has become very asymmetric. the environment around the storm remains on the dry side.. those model predictions of a moister environment haven't verified yet.. this probably is a shot of subsidence acting to destabilize the inner core. on top of that the storm has wobbled well right of the forecast track... it is going RIGHT of san salvador, not left as the forecast track has been pegging it for the last few advisories.
let me rephrase that, it is going OVER san salvador.. the western eye at least
reading back through the forum i saw comments on abaco.. what the storm is doing as it nears the vicinity. if it's going to the palm beach area, it has to stay well left of abaco.. left and close to abaco is a space coast problem.. if it goes over it's a ne fl/s ga problem.. if it goes right it's ga/sc.
nah, the door isnt closed for further north just yet.
elsewhere in the basin... 97L has its convection all sheared to the north now. very well defined low level center, which has been intermittently under strong convection for days, which has arguably been a weak tropical storm, slowed and moving wnw near 19/41. it will either continue west as a weak surface system and probably die, or recurve into an upper trough near 45w and strengthen some. little chance to do anything significant, either way.
98L cruising west at low latitude. it has a d1.5 as of the last rating, which sometimes gets a system classified. gfs keeps it weak and west (into the caribbean by the middle of next week).. other globals tending to draw it wnw. slight chance it is t.d. 9 at 5 pm, more likely at 11 or later. this system has a good chance to be ivan over the weekend.
nothing else imminent or looking terribly spooky. just a couple of invests and a very strong hurricane in the bahamas.
HF 1903z02september
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:04 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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I agree, I still think Solid 3 or 4 at landfall. Still have a feeling she may try to spin up on approach to the coast but just a gut feel. Also, IMO the threat area in the gulf judging by some models would be from "possibly" New Orleans, most likely a bit farther east from Mobile to St. Joe. What are your thoughts Jason? FWIW, I was look at Derek Ortt's forecast at S2K, and he believes that a gulf landfall is likely. He actually has me directly in the path of a 95kt hurricane. Kind of unsettling. Not gonna worry to much though. Thanks for your thoughts. I really love the fact we can talk to real met's online. Oh and Great job keeping the site up, its flying for me right now!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: Scary...
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>>> How did you get that landfall location? It's much more north than the NHC has it. Is it simply staying on the angle she has been on for the past few hours?
accuwx pro. I think your answer is yes...if she stays on accuwx course...they don't always agree with NHC. Just another weather resource option.
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:07 PM |
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Re: Scary...
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Again, the moderators Rock!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: Scary...
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Wow! Just when all the models seem to come to an agreement on a Florida landfall, Frances may have decided to take her butt to Georgia or the Carolinas after all. What a wacky storm!
ShawnS
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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jason, per the models ukmet is the only one that really takes it in the gulf. a couple others have it skirting the west coast. what do you see that makes you think gulf?? is it because the model trends keep going farther west and a little south each time??
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: blink
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I think Jason must be looking at more current Sat pics as he stated that she has completed an eye reform and is still moving WNW. He expects possibly a little strengthening soon. Curious about the 12Z models??? other than the Cnadian and GFDL, what do they show?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:13 PM |
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Thoughts....
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Is the window closed on GA, NC, SC? No. But that is the absolute least likely of all the possible scenarios right now...I'd be more apt to call for a hard left turn into the Keys than I would for a NC landfall (and I am NOT calling for a Keys landfall).
Current motion is NW..I do expect to see a resumption to a more WNW track down the road aways...of course if this does not occur, the forecast landfall points will have to be adjusted, but for folks in S FL, this doesn't matter...it doesn't matter where the eventual landfall of the eye is, it is going to be rough from the Space Coast to near Miami regardless...the landfall point is more important for the evolution of the storm inland than for residents of S FL.
Pressure up...eye less distinct...I think Hank has some good ideas here..what I think this that some drier air got sucked in just about the time of an ERC...I do expect the storm to stabilize and maintain Cat 4 strength.
I put the probably of a strike between MLB and WPB at 90%...not certain, but I just don't see anything that would allow anything else to happen.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:20 PM |
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New Vortex...
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Pressure down another mb...open eye wall...so while there was some weakening...I do still think it is temporary..
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1818Z
B. 23 DEG 51 MIN N
74 DEG 17 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2631 M
D. 65 KT
E. 237 DEG 022 NM
F. 322 DEG 81 KT
G. 236 DEG 017 NM
H. 948 MB
I. 14 C/ 3104 M
J. 15 C/ 3093 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN S-W
M. C20
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 20
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1425Z.
MAX FL TEMP 18C 236/008
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:22 PM |
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Re: It Shifts Left
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Quote:
>>> Would someone please post a slosh map of South FL for me ?
You can find them on these boards, I believe they're in the storm links section
Thanks
I apreciate it
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:23 PM |
| Attachment |
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Scary2
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See attachment
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:24 PM |
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Cape Coral
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What kind of winds and rain can we expect in Cape Coral? After Charley we couldn't take much more. Debris is still lying out in piles....
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:32 PM |
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Re: Cape Coral
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If ya ask me, Yes, Frances is weakening a bit. But think about it, she's been a Cat 4. for a long time now. Its not often that hurricanes can sustain that amount of strength, so she is weakening a bit. I think in the next few hours she'll begin to shake out the loose parts and wrap back up. Just my opinion. Or maybe she wont. That would be great news for Flordia.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:32 PM |
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Pinpoint Weather....
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Wendall, this is not me calling you out, so please don't take it personally...
I simply don't have time to resond to everyone who asks "What is it going to be like in ________". My suggestion is to go here and click on the NWS forecast office that covers your area, then click on the map on their homepage that is closest to your home...that is the best way to get a specific forecast for your location.
JK, you beat me to it. Thanks.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:41 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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On the Sat frames the past couple of hours, Frances seems to be moving NNW. This would seem to keep her off shore.
Anyone else seeing this or is it just temporary.
It's a definate change of direction.....looks like it?
Comments?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:44 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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I wouldn't call it NNW, but yes, that is the current motion...I do expect a WNW to resume at some point tonight or tomorrow...this is not set in stone of course, but any gain of latitude is better for S FL, and worse for Central and N FL, or perhaps S GA as well...again, I do think this is a S of MLB storm, but there are no guarantees..
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:45 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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I don't see that at all...but that could be me.
If anyone is at home or has access to a TV, Max Mayfield is going to be on Fox News Channel in a few minutes...I think he may answer a lot of these questions. I'll try to let you know what he says, if there's any change in track, direction, etc. Hang tight.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:46 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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Definitely. It was going NW from around 12 to 3 today, now for almost the past hour it's been going almost (not quite) NNW. I know this wasn't projected to move this way, and, obviously, it's not a jog.
Jason, what could be causing this?
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:47 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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Moving NW, but I beleive this could be temporary. There is nothing out there to cause a drastic change of direction. Could someone please post a storm surge map for the space coast area. Thanks in advance.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:47 PM |
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Re: Thoughts....
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Quote:
Is the window closed on GA, NC, SC? No. But that is the absolute least likely of all the possible scenarios right now...I'd be more apt to call for a hard left turn into the Keys than I would for a NC landfall (and I am NOT calling for a Keys landfall).
Current motion is NW..I do expect to see a resumption to a more WNW track down the road aways...of course if this does not occur, the forecast landfall points will have to be adjusted, but for folks in S FL, this doesn't matter...it doesn't matter where the eventual landfall of the eye is, it is going to be rough from the Space Coast to near Miami regardless...the landfall point is more important for the evolution of the storm inland than for residents of S FL.
Pressure up...eye less distinct...I think Hank has some good ideas here..what I think this that some drier air got sucked in just about the time of an ERC...I do expect the storm to stabilize and maintain Cat 4 strength.
I put the probably of a strike between MLB and WPB at 90%...not certain, but I just don't see anything that would allow anything else to happen.
Thanks Jason,
the NW motion has me wondering but she'll apparently resueme the WNW soon I think landfal a bit North of previous however. We'll see
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:49 PM |
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question from Gainesville
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Hi... I remember hearing how you want to OPEN certain windows sometimes when a tornado is approaching. Assuming we get 80-90 mph sustained winds here, and one of my windows breaks, is it ever a good idea to open more to allow the air to flow through, instead of too much pressure building up inside the house, possibly lifting off the roof? I am surrounded by trees, as is most of Gainesville, which could cause other, possibly worse problems than some broken windows. I am in a fairly strong cement block house from the mid-50s. Putting up plywood is not really an option for me. Even if I wanted to, I believe most of the wood has sold out aleady. People here seem to be stocking up on supplies, but not really covering windows. Thanks for any help.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:52 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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Could be anything...probably a temporary weakening of the ridge to the NE...but as it does gain some latitiude the ridge should reassert itself and push it more to the WNW...this is not unexpected.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:54 PM |
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Max Mayfield
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Okay, folks..this is straight from the horse's mouth:
San Salvador (not in the direct path of the storm) just reported a gust up to 115mph.
*Max says: "we expect this to criss-cross the state and exit into the northern gulf of mexico. Inland counties are going to see quite a bit of damage."
No change in his forecast track, didn't mention a movement to the NNW. I"m not saying he isn't seeing it, but with Charley he DID acknowledge that the track had changed; so I guess what I'm saying is that if he was seeing any kind of trend that would change the current track, he would have said it. And probably long before his interview with Sheppard Smith on FNC.
| Shawn W. |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:54 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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Thanks, Jason.
TWC just confirmed the Northwest track, and, said, that if it kept on the current track, it would go into North Florida -- but they expect it to turn wnw again after around a day, as Jason was describing.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:55 PM |
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Re: question from Gainesville
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NO NO NO!!!!!!!
The myth of opening windows was that earlier it was thought that pressure differences caused the structural failure of homes...this is not the case, and the last thing you want to have is open windows, as this creates wind inflows that will make it much more likely to lose your roof. If one fails, opening more won't help...
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:57 PM |
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Interesting coincidences....
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I'm sure I'm not the only one to notice this, but isn't it an eerie coincidence that, in 1992, the names for the storms that year went Andrew, Bonnie, Charley, Danielle, Earl, Frances? Now, yes, I know the NHC recycles unused names, but this year of all years, with a storm like Frances that brings back memories of Andrew, it just happens that the same names haunted us in 92? Forgot about that one....
Man the weirdnesses continue....
Londovir
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 07:59 PM |
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SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES
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If you do have screened in swiimming pool, you may want to remove some of the screening on each side, so that your screen cage doesnt collapse or even worse end up in your neighbors yard.. Screens are of no use to you in a hurricane anyways, and are fairly cheap compared to the cage..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:03 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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It seems that accuweather.com has taken into a count that the storm is moving a little more north than expected. They shifted their track to make landfall in Brevard, and track directly over Orlando. Hopefully this isn't the case cause the middle will go right over my house.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:06 PM |
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Re: SWIMMING POOL SCREEN CAGES
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A couple of things.....The Accu-Weather met on CNBC said there still could be a possiblility of a small window of opportunity of Frances moving up to the Carolinas, but albeit a very small one...
Also the FSU-Miami game has been postponed until 9/10...and it looks like that the Universal Back Lot is closing tonight around 6pm and they may close the whole park on Friday....
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:06 PM |
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Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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Did her direction change or was it just a wobble? I can't tell and I'm not an expert - just wanted to know.
ticka1
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:07 PM |
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Shelters safe or leave completely?
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I thank you all for explaining this. I am in the dreaded Fort Pierce and evacuations have not been forthcoming they say until 6am in the morning except for residents of the coastal A1A, but I am wondering if I have not made a horrible mistake by not leaving to parts away from all this (Naples). The current track shows the storm headed to Port St. Lucie. I will be evacuating to a shelter, but I am scared that the shelter will be in the brunt of the storm. Should I seek a shelter a little further west, or go to the one in Fort Pierce or PSL? Are most shelters designed for this sort of thing, one of this magnitude? It's an elementary school.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:14 PM |
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From NWS Melbourne
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Great discussion from the Melbourne NWS office. Here's and excerpt:
FRI-SUN...CURRENT TPC TRACK IS IN FINE SHAPE AND EXPECTED IMPACTS
WELL PUT FORTH. HAVE BEEN WITNESSING SEVERAL TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES TODAY
DUE MAINLY TO INTENSE EYEWALL CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND PERHAPS OWING TO A LITTLE WEAKNESS AT
H30-H20 HEIGHT FIELDS FROM THE ELONGATED CARCASS OF THE TUTT LOW
THAT HAD BEEN IN FRONT OF FRANCES SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE MEAN LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS MODERATELY STRONG FROM 400MB AND
BELOW...AND EXTENDS WEST OF 80W.
THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LARGE WIND RADII PORTEND A LONGER PERIOD
OF WIND/SURGE IMPACTS OVER A WIDER AREA. THIS ALSO HAS A VERY HIGH
POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME VERY...VERY HIGH 2-3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS.
THE NATIONAL/REGIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BASIN *AVERAGE* RAINFALL
TOTALS OF NINE INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OR SO...
ACROSS THE WHOLE OF ECFL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS IS
VERY DEPENDENT ON FRANCES' TRACK...AND ESPECIALLY HER FORWARD SPEED.
***AS THIS LARGE...POWERFUL...AND VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE
APPROACHES THE COAST...SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO USERS NEED
BE MADE HERE***
1) BEACUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST...EMPHASIS *STILL* SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE
POINT OF THE PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. FRANCES' WIND FIELD
IS VERY LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE
THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.
2) ATTEMPTING TO EXTRAPOLATE SHORT TERM (1-3HR) TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES
INTO A LONGER TERM MOTION IS PRONE TO BE ERRONEOUS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN
HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS MOVING AT LANDFALL.
3) FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR COMPARISONS TO FLOYD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS
BETWEEN FLOYD AND FRANCES ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THERE IS NO
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE OVER OR APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE REFERENCES TO THE
MEAN RIDGE EARLIER IN DISC.
4) FOR USERS OF OUR GRIDDED WIND PRODUCTS...THE WIND FORECASTS
REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES...AND 34 KNOTS PAST 72
HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNUSUAL DOWNWARD JUMPS IN SPEEDS ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS
MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED
UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS
PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE
COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFT0ERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY.
AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS
TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH INLAND WINDS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
RIVAL OR EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 PM |
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Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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Hi everyone,
Frances has been moving NW throughout the afternoon. However, this is not an indication of a recurvature. There is nothing that is going to cause such a drastic turn to the north. The ridge is just weak, and as such, I would expect a continued WNW to NW movement with a slowing of speed over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, the trough coming from the Pacific NW will move into the central US and should strengthen the ridge north of Frances. This will cause the storm to move WNW once again.
This is my non-professional analysis. I think the track will look similar to Hurricane Erin in 1995, but will be a little farther north, especially after landfall. I don't think we are looking at a GOM entry.
Ronn
This
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 PM |
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Re: From NWS Melbourne
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other news from the tropics . We may have a new td at 5pm
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 10N26.5W ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 2N27W 15N25W. MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS WEST ESTIMATED AT 15 KT. THREE TENTHS MEASURED BANDING
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY
FLARING..AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:19 PM |
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Flood Watches Extended in Florida
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Flood Watch Counties added: Charlotte, Citrus, Hernando, Hillsborrough, Lee, Levy, Manataee, Pasco, Pinellas,Sarastora, and Sumter; cities included are Brandon, Bradenton, Brooksville, Cape Coral, Chiefland, Clearlwater , Clearwater Beach, Fort Myers, Inverness, New Port Richie, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, Sarasota, Spring Hill, Venice and Zephyrhills.
(Jeez that was a lot of typing!)
For those of you not familiar with those areas, these are counties and cities on the West Coast of Florida, north and south of Tampa Bay. They said that some areas could expect up to 20" of rain or more. I think that this is also another indication that no one really thinks anything is going to pull this up to the Carolinas, as they are advising the people in low-lying areas to immediately move to higher ground, which means more evacuations.
Finally...they are in the process of moving the horses located in Ocala up to KY, TN, etc. And one cow escaped and caused and accident on I-4, backing up traffic.
Gov. Bush is holding a news conference right now and just said that 2.5 million people will be evacuated.
Okay, I think I got it all.
*Sorry, about the typos...I thought I got them all, guess not.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:20 PM |
Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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Anything is possible, but the new ETA is out to 48 hrs, and so far, it is still offshore Florida, and it is significantly right of where it was. The question is, is this a bad run? It is confusing because this looks more like the older GFS, which is not out yet. It will be interesting to see when it is. From the loop I look at, it looks to be moving NNW in the very short term, and I wouldn't expect that motion to continue. As Charley showed, they'll do whatever they want, when they want, and maybe this one wants to turn right more now. There would be a couple of advantages, the first being, no direct hit, the second being, that wherever it does hit, the interaction with land could weaken it. I think I am spoiled by the fact that the models are run 4 times a day now. I remember when the LFM and NGM were twice a day, and thinking back, it's a wonder any forecast ever verified!
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:20 PM |
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Re: Shelters safe or leave completely?
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Local shelters are a very good option! The problem is for all those with pets. If you have to leave your local area, remember you still have about 24 hours until Frances starts affecting the east coast.
I understand the consensus that has developed around a PBI-VRB landfall scenario, but we dare not count out other options. There is still time to make preparations in a calm manner. Some people undoubtedly are leaving their local area into harm's way, and may have a difficult time getting back home.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:21 PM |
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Re: question from Gainesville
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Jason. If I live in Tarpon Springs in a 2 year old house, should I be considering boarding it up??
That depends...does it have windows?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:24 PM |
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Re: From NWS Melbourne
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Wow...they just answered every question people on this board have had in the last 3 hours. That was awesome. Thanks, Clyde
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:25 PM |
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Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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This move nw from Frances was predictated and expected but if you look to the northern edge of Frances is starting to encounter the high pressure ridge to its north. This is forecasted to slow Frances as it approaches the northern Bahama's and push Frances back to the west to wnw towards Florida. Where this takes place will determin its landfall. Right now forecasted to be West Palm Beach. One of the reasons a hurricane warning is so wide along the east coast is the unknown time Frances will turn back towards Florida. No matter were it makes landfall most of the state will feel effects from Frances. So continue to watch its track but watch for a turn back towards Florida in 12 to 24 hours. This is a very tough storm to forecast so the best advice is to monitor the progress throughout the night and Friday for latest developements
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:25 PM |
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Strom Surge Map for Space Coast
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Quote:
Moving NW, but I beleive this could be temporary. There is nothing out there to cause a drastic change of direction. Could someone please post a storm surge map for the space coast area. Thanks in advance.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/atlas.html
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:30 PM |
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Re: From NWS Melbourne
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Thanks Colleen!
What an ironic year to not have access to a PC reguarly. Finally have access again.
Charley was a beast in my neighborhood but this is an entirely different monster all together. Everyone stay safe!!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:32 PM |
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Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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You guys must be relying on infared becasue the visible clearly shows a NW motions and then back WNW in the last few frames. The infared did appear to have a NNW motion, but that was due to the eye falling apart. Rest assured she is still right on target. WPB to Melbourne landfall.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:32 PM |
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5pm just in
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present movement toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 9 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 948 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:33 PM |
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Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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Thanks Colleen for pointing that out. I was skimming over a lot and missed that, and that message is a gem. I added it to the main page article.
| RevUp |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:37 PM |
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Re: 5pm just in
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"DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN ADVANCE."
Well stated! along with the oblique angle at which the storm will be approaching, makes this very difficult to pin down.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:38 PM |
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Interesting discussion from NWS MLB
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THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LARGE WIND RADII PORTEND A LONGER PERIOD OF WIND/SURGE IMPACTS OVER A WIDER AREA. THIS ALSO HAS A VERY HIGH POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN SOME VERY...VERY HIGH 2-3 DAY RAINFALL TOTALS. THE NATIONAL/REGIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BASIN *AVERAGE* RAINFALL TOTALS OF NINE INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OR SO...ACROSS THE WHOLE OF ECFL BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THIS IS VERY DEPENDENT ON FRANCES' TRACK...AND ESPECIALLY HER FORWARD SPEED.
***AS THIS LARGE...POWERFUL...AND VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...SEVERAL VERY IMPORTANT POINTS TO USERS NEED BE MADE HERE***
1) BEACUSE OF THE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE COAST...EMPHASIS *STILL* SHOULD NOT BE PLACED ON THE POINT OF THE PROJECTED LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. FRANCES' WIND FIELD IS VERY LARGE: TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR GREATER WINDS ENCOMPASS MORE THAN 50,000 SQUARE MILES. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA ASSUMING A *DIRECT* HIT FROM A MAJOR HURRICANE.
2) ATTEMPTING TO EXTRAPOLATE SHORT TERM (1-3HR) TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES INTO A LONGER TERM MOTION IS PRONE TO BE ERRONEOUS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ABOUT 10 MPH LESS THAN HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS MOVING AT LANDFALL.
3) FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR COMPARISONS TO FLOYD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS BETWEEN FLOYD AND FRANCES ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THERE IS NO SHORT WAVE TROUGH OF SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE OVER OR APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES OR WESTERN ATLANTIC. SEE REFERENCES TO THE
MEAN RIDGE EARLIER IN DISC.
4) FOR USERS OF OUR GRIDDED WIND PRODUCTS...THE WIND FORECASTS REMAIN CAPPED AT 50 KNOTS IN THE 37 TO 72 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT EXTENDED RANGES...AND 34 KNOTS PAST 72
HOURS. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNUSUAL DOWNWARD JUMPS IN SPEEDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS HURRICANE IMPACTS MOVE TO WITHIN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE RAMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY.
ALL RESIDENTS SHOULD RUSH TO COMPLETION THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS. OUTER RAINBANDS COULD APPROACH THE SE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING
...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPINGING ON THE MARTIN/ST. LUCIE COAST LINES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFT0ERNOON. RAIN & WIND WILL INCREASE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS CWA WITH THE GREATEST IMPACT EXPECTED SATURDAY. AS WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO SPREAD FAR INLAND...WITH INLAND WINDS HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
RIVAL OR EXCEED THOSE EXPERIENCED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:39 PM |
|
looks nice in boca
|
A friend of mine in Boca Rotan is riding out the storm - and has been gracious enough to set up a high-speed webcam for me to watch. I can't give you all the link cause nobody would be able to see anything...but I have a great view. Right now looks partly cloudy with a steady breaze...occasion gust to maybe 30mph. Going to be a great show...till the power goes out.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:39 PM |
|
|
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Re: Frances - did she make the turn
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I don't know if this has been posted or not, but the Fla Turnpike Authority has lifted all tolls on roads in Central Florida and WKMG-TV is reporting that the Bee Line Expressway which goes from the Cape to Orlando will probably be turned into a one-way road away from the coast......
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:41 PM |
|
MLB AFD
|
Parts of that AFD were written by an occasional contributor here, and a buddy of mine, Tony Cristadi...a GREAT forecaster...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:41 PM |
|
Re: Pinpoint Weather....
|
i am seeing somethings on a sat loops that got my eye....i think frances is about to slow down and possible to a stationary halt!!!!!! there appears to be a dry ridge south of cuba and into the carib....its expanding and forming up with what looks like another dry ridge, from ft myers towards daytona and out towards 32n and 75 and back down around the outer west outflow of storm to just north of keys.....it's expanding and appears this is interacting with her now.....there is something over okla.... could help the weak trough along se to move off to ne......this appears in my view is what might cause a stall in 12 hrs or so.....
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:55 PM |
|
Re: Pinpoint Weather....
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That was a great discussion by NWS Melbourne. Anybody know if Stewart will be doing the discussion for NHC tonight?
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:58 PM |
|
Re: MLB AFD
|
I've always felt that the folks at MLB understood that the common reader occasionally stumbles on the discussions and the importance of making them understandable and impactful.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 08:59 PM |
|
Re: MLB AFD
|
Yes he is.....
NEW TOPIC IS UP...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 10:04 PM |
Re: MLB AFD
|
What is a good live internet site to follow, that will give me up to date info about what this storm is doing?
| Terry Johnson |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 02 2004 11:21 PM |
|
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Re: question from Gainesville
|
Yes, it does.