MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 10:40 PM |
Frances Approaching Florida
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Jim Williams (In Delray Beach south of West Palm Beach) and his Hurricane City Broadcast from 8PM till 11PM -- Link to Real Audio -- updated!
8PM
Pressure drop corrected to 957.
Original:
Hurricane Frances is approaching Florida tonight... slowly. Many are without power. Damage reports have been filed.
Damage Reports from Hurricane City
It has been reduced to a strong category 2 storm, which is generally good news. It has only a small window to strengthen, which is right now. So I don't think it will. It will cause flooding, and some damage, but mostly Frances fatigue to the folks along the Florida coast who will have to deal with the dark and wind and rain for a good 24 hours or so.
Sorry for the short article, but this is a topic for your responses tonight. Stay safe in Florida. If you hear anything that you may have a question about or you think folks would be interested in, add a comment..
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Melbourne (East Central Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Miami (South Florida) - Long Range Radar Loop
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa Bay (West Central Florida)Long Range Radar Loop
[url=http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/wxstatement.php?t=HLS&l=JAX]
Jacksonville (North Florida)[/url] - Long Range Radar Loop
Local county by county information will no longer be updated unles there is breaking news here -- it's just impossible to keep up because of the size of the area under Hurricane Watch. Use the links in the last article to view county emergency management webpages. Florida Disaster.org is the state em page, with links to locals as well.
Definitely more to come later...
** SITE NOTE ** This website is receiving way beyond record traffic today, it will be slow, it will go down ocasionally, but should be back up shortly when that happens. We've done everything we can to help this along short of dumping zillions into bandwidth and hardware to keep it going. Apologies in advance.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tonight at 8PM EST.
Event RelatedLinks
Miami Radar Long Range loop (Note the Miami NWS Radar hardware is having issues and may be down)
Frances Models -- This image animated over time
TD#9 Models -- This image animated over time
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
General Links
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 10:45 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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It's moved, not far, but it moved where the winds are higher near West Palm Beach, but the Center, the "wall" and the surge is still a long ways off
| Jason Siegel |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:05 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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As advice from an Internet developer, perhaps you could do a massive find/replace in your PHP pages. Get rid of every instance of "http://flhurricane.com" and your links will still work, but you'll be saving a bit of bandwidth.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:06 PM |
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Question About the Ridge
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I know that the ridge building in is what will push Frances across Florida but what is the cause of it going NW? Is the ridge expected to weaken or is a trough coming in? It has to be something because it is more less going west right now.
ShawnS
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:09 PM |
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East Orlando
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Received a couple of PM's about conditions in east Orlando. I am south of Waterford Lakes and did not lose power during Charley, despite substantial damage in my area--so hopefully I'll be able to post conditions over the next 24 hours.
Currently, winds 20-25mph steady with higher gusts. Very light rain. Guestimate on rainfall so far is .25 inches.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:16 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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I've been wondering about the track across the state, because it really appears she is just moving in west to WPB. Why wouldn't she maintain the same path over land?
| Rubber Ducky |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:18 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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In Cocoa Beach on the river; info from Davis station on roof: glass at 999.8, down about 10 mb in 12 hrs & dropping; 30 mph wind fm NE, gusts to 50-55 for past 6-8 hrs; 1.2"rain today; river has dropped about 6" since daybreak - suspect wind is pushing water to south. It may get a bit more sporty tonight.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:20 PM |
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off topic
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if my power is 2 go out any 1 kno if thir is a wap version of this site for cell phone use
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:20 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Is there any new recon data in the storm?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:21 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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Well, it's a matter of how fast she is going. If she continue at this pace, the Ridge will be gone and, she'll be able to choose what ever path she wants.
I mean look how long she'll be in Florida..That's almost 24 hours!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:29 PM |
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Uh-oh....
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Pressures falling rapidly....8 mb in a little over an hour....
821
URNT12 KNHC 042224
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/2224Z
B. 26 DEG 55 MIN N
79 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2721 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 142 DEG 100 KT
G. 049 DEG 039 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 9 C/ 3051 M
J. 15 C/ 3061 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/07
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF980 3006A FRANCES OB 08
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 2212Z. PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL 10-15NM
DIAMETER POORLY CORRELATED WITH FL AND SURFACE CENTER.
| Jason Siegel |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:29 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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What does dropping pressure mean?
Hope the power doesn't go out for a bit. It's fun trying to get college application materials done while the power flickers!
Would you all be interested in supporting the American Red Cross Disaster Relief Fund? Please see my signature. So far I have raised $300 in my effort to donate as much funds as possible. It's for a good cause... help those in need!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:37 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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It means the shear has relaxed and Frances is trying to get back to Cat 3 prior to landfall...she is strengthening....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:37 PM |
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Jason
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Glad to see you on here! Do you have time to answer my question about the NW track?
ShawnS
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:40 PM |
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Indian River County?
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Anybody have reports from Indian River County? Looks like the worst is heading in there over the next few hours.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:43 PM |
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Re: Uh-oh....
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Quote:
Pressures falling rapidly....8 mb in a little over an hour....
821
URNT12 KNHC 042224
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 04/2224Z
B. 26 DEG 55 MIN N
79 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2721 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 142 DEG 100 KT
G. 049 DEG 039 NM
H. 951 MB
I. 9 C/ 3051 M
J. 15 C/ 3061 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/07
O. 1 /1 NM
P. AF980 3006A FRANCES OB 08
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 2212Z. PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL 10-15NM
DIAMETER POORLY CORRELATED WITH FL AND SURFACE CENTER.
I'm no met, but 8mb in 2 hours is pretty quick deepening, no?
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:44 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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As close as she is to the coast, there is not much of a chance that she will get it together enough to really make cat 3?? It looks to me like the tops around the eye are building higher...more or deeper thunderboomers???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:44 PM |
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Re: Uh-oh....
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What's the bit about the 15 NM inner eyewall mean?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Uh-oh....
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1) The ridge is just starting to reassert itself, and the NW motion is basically a meander...expect a resumption of a more westerly course as the ridge builds.
2) Yes, 8 mb in 2 hrs is a very impressive drop.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:49 PM |
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Re: Uh-oh....
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that means a smaller eyewall is trying to form...another hint that the circulation is improving. The representation on satellite, radar, and recon has all improved markedly in the past several hours.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:51 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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Quote:
As close as she is to the coast, there is not much of a chance that she will get it together enough to really make cat 3?? It looks to me like the tops around the eye are building higher...more or deeper thunderboomers???
She's pretty much borderline Cat 2/3 anyway, wouldn't take much to push her to Cat 3.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:51 PM |
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Re: Question About the Ridge
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I don't know if she'll have time...but at this slow speed, it isn't out of the question that she gets back to 3...be thankful she didn't do this yesterday...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:56 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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what is the 8pm advisory going to be for winds?over 110mph?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Quote:
what is the 8pm advisory going to be for winds?over 110mph?
Windspeed usually lags behind pressure drops. Wait for 11
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:57 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Stayed at 105...if the deepening continues it might get upgraded at 11.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:58 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Ok thank you for the imformatio everyone
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:59 PM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Quote:
Stayed at 105...if the deepening continues it might get upgraded at 11.
The Hurricane force winds have also reduced to 75mi, isn't that another sign of strenghting, i.e. "winding back up tighter"?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 04 2004 11:59 PM |
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8:00
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Winds have not changed, YET, because it takes a few hrs. for the winds to respond to the pressure drop. The 11:00 should have the increase in winds I would think.
ShawnS
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:00 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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I was a bit surprised that the advisory did not note the pressure fall. They just listed it like it had always been that low.
951mb usually correlates to about 115-120mph winds in hurricanes, but as stated earlier, wind increases usually follow after the pressure fall. The next recon will be very very important for what we are going to get.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:02 AM |
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Didn't Respond Fast Enough!
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Man, y'all are on top of everything. Great Job!!!
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:03 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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jason do you think she will still be a cane when she gets to the gulf and how strong .and were is the next land fall thanks .
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:05 AM |
Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Yes, when Frances re-emerges in the Gulf:
what are the chances she will linger and strengthen? Right now it appears that she would stay as a tropical storm only....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:08 AM |
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By the way...
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Has anyone noticed the latest GFDL. It is NOT showing the big turn to the NE after the second landfall. I wonder if it is trying to start another trend.
ShawnS
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:08 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Talk about a race for the coast...wind increase (from pressure drop) or landfall? I'm betting a wind increase as that may only take 2-3 hours. We have 4-5 until landfall occurs. This is going to be close. The storm may weaken a little less over Florida because of the lower pressures.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:09 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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The pressure can fall and fall...this storm is SO large it would take several days for the pressure fall to actually make a significant difference...we here in Florida are now facing a major rain (flooding) event...if you live here get your boat in working order...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:11 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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That is the question I am wrestling with tonight...it depends on forward speed and how far south it exits the peninsula...I expect a second landfall as a strong TS, but a Cat 1 is certainly not out of the question, especially if it can stay over the GOM for a while, say 18 hrs or longer. I am expecting a landfall about where NHC is calling for (which I have been calling for since Wed)...Apalachicola/Pt St Joe to PCB to Destin and inland from there.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:14 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Pressure back up to 960, what gives?
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:17 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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What question are you are referring to, Jason???...I lost track of the thread...BTW, I really appreciate your presence here the past few years!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:17 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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You guys are doing a great job of keeping us informed of the stuff the local channels are downplaying. Thanks.
Just one quick question; what do you all think the effects will be on North/Central Broward County? I'm in Coral Springs, if that helps. Any hurricane force winds?
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:21 AM |
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Pity Tampa/St. Pete
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wow - Tampa St. Pete is going to experience probably about 20" of rain or more by the time this is over coupled with the 4 - 6 foot storm surges along the beaches. Talk about a major flooding event - whoa.
My guess is that 20" could lead to seawall collapes because over 60% of those built in the 50's remain on the barrier islands and most don't have weep holes. Considering most of the barrier islands stand at 3' above sea level, we are potentially going to see saturation reached and 4 - 6 foot of water across the islands.. much like a Cat 4 would deliver.
Yikes.. hope I'm wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:21 AM |
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HUH?????
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Something has to be wrong. An 11mb drop in a couple of hrs and now a 9mb increase in an hr. Jason????
ShawnS
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:23 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Interesting...they might have missed the center on that pass (it is a rather large center and that is not out of the question), or the recon showing 951 could have been bad (which I doubt).
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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The question that I am wresting with is the evolution and strength of Frances in the Panhandle.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:24 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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I' m watching CNN and they ask why at 5pm the "eye wall" was 50 miles away from the coast and now at 8 pm it's still 50 miles away. The anwser they got was that "the eye" got smaller, but it is moving.
I don't know what to take from this, but that is scary.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:26 AM |
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|
Re: Figure Skater
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They were talking on CNN with a met from Accu-Weather and was discussing the tightening of the storm, likening it to a figure skater bringing their arms down to spin faster...
Also, our UPN affiliate here in Atlanta, which is owned by Viacom has been simulcasting WFOR in Miami and it;'s good to hear the updates from Bryan Norcross to get the real deal on what's happening there.(As opposed to the weekend mets here in Atlanta and Geraldo Rivera at Riviera Beach on FNC)
Our prayers are with everyone in Florida for a safe ride through Frances....
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:27 AM |
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Recon Correction...
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WTNT61 KNHC 050018
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 820 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004
THE 951 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED IN THE 8 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY IS CORRECTED TO 957 MB. A STILL LATER HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE IS 960 MB.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Conditions are deteriorating here on the west coast of Florida, where Frances is expected to cross as a moderate to strong TS Sunday afternoon. It is a far cry from current lashing on the east coast, but we are experiencing our first major squalls this evening with increasing winds. Here are the current conditions from my weather station near St. Pete:
Wind Gust: 30mph
Pressure: 29.74in, 1007mb, falling
Total rain: 0.12in
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:30 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I guess that pressure is better.
Jason, what's your guess on where it will cross the coast?
I'm in orlando area and it will of course affect what we get tomorrow.
Local Mets are saying Orlando 75-85 mph winds.
????
Wondering what path it's taking across the state???
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:33 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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It's so broad and the windfield so large, it doesn't really matter where the exact points are...don't sweat that at this point...your local mets are right...you could see 75-85 mph winds whether you are are 3 miles from the center or 60...it doesn't matter that much at this point.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:36 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Well here in Lakeland (middle of Lakeland) I would like to know what path she will take across the State. They all say if it passes just South it will be much worse because the stronger winds are all on the N-NE side. Help Anyone...
P.S. Thanks All....GREAT SITE !!!!!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:39 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Quote:
Well here in Lakeland (middle of Lakeland) I would like to know what path she will take across the State. They all say if it passes just South it will be much worse because the stronger winds are all on the N-NE side. Help Anyone...
P.S. Thanks All....GREAT SITE !!!!!!!!
I'm in Lakeland by I-4...if the path is follow exactly, then the eye will pass just north of Mulberry (around sheppard rd.) But there is no way to narrow it down that much...It looks like Lakeland will be at or near whats left of the eye a little north or a little south
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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See my post right above yours...
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:40 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I noted also that the eye seemed to be "moving" toward the coast. However, if you look at the Melbourne radar and put your cursor on the western eyewall, you will see that the eastern eyewall is contracting toward the western eyewall, giving the illusion of movement that doesn't seem to be their yet, as my cursor was still on the western eyewall at the end of the loop.
It is becoming more elliptical though, and isn't it true that more elliptical is often a precursor to movement?
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:43 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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It is impossible to say whether the storm will move north or south of Lakeland. As Jason mentioned, the wind field is so large that we shouldn't concern ourselves with the exact center. Even south of the center, winds are going to be strong. I think in your location you may experience hurricane force gusts, but more than likely, locations from central Polk county westward will experience 40-60mph sustained winds with gusts of 70mph. Frances' wind field is so large that all of the inland peninsula will experience quite a bit of wind.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 12:45 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I am on St. George Island, and this waiting is almost unbearable.
At this stage, whether I go west or easy or north, I'm still in it. That is why I am hoping for a quick TS-style crossing of the GOM. Still thinking it will exit south-er... of the current models.
Jason, I appreciate your insights and comments!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 01:56 AM |
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Since we're back up again...
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Latest recon has pressure at 957mb
ShawnS
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:04 AM |
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Re: Since we're back up again...
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Glad we are back, from radar I think Frances has touched down around 26.9/80.1.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Local Met (channel 9) just reported that there are reports of winds to 115mph in WPB, with significant structural damage. I believe he was saying gusts to 115mph, not sustained. Trying to find more out now.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:11 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Posting from S. Merritt Island. We still have power in our subdivision (River Grove). The surrounding homes in the next subdivision have no power. I have seen lots of transformer flashes. We have been having gusts over 80 mph for many hours. TS force winds started around noon today. They are saying we will have winds gusting over 110 later tonight.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:14 AM |
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Landfall Hobe Sound at 10:05 pm
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This is better news for the Orlando area (I think)
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:14 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Watching CNN with Gary Tuchman reporting from Ft. Pierce and at 10pm he is reporting that police say that they have sustained winds of 85mph..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:16 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Glad to see you are holding your own. Think conditions are similar in Sat Beach? We're about 3 mi so of Patrick AFB, 4 blocks in from A1A.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:20 AM |
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radar presentation
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sure looks like a north of due west motion... also looks like it hints of picking up some forward speed... I sure hope so for the east coast's sake..
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:21 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I am hearing that I have suppose to have sustained winds from 80-95 MPH in South Kissimmee/Poinciana Area. Storm looks to still looks like it has a northern component so around WNW, maybe around 290-300
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I think its already more south than its NHC projected forecast.... interesting to see when it going to get on that NW heading the NHC is banking on for its future path........
looks more like 280 at best to me....at the present time
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:28 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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URNT12 KNHC 050206
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 05/0206Z
B. 27 DEG 03 MIN N
79 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2733 M
D. NA KT
E. NA DEG NM
F. 044 DEG 99 KT
G. 315 DEG 032 NM
H. 960 MB
I. 12 C/ 3071 M
J. 15 C/ 3082 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C45
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1.5 NM
P. AF980 3006A FRANCES OB 22
MAX FL WIND 103 KT NE QUAD 0049Z.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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I think youre right! We shall see. I wonder if it could reform in the gulf and head your way? Scarry stuff! What a season this year!. And to think it has just begun!
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:29 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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gailmm...yes the conditions here on S. Merritt Island would be about the same as in your location...just south of Patrick. As the crow flies we are 3 miles NW of Patrick across the Banana River. Winds are picking up even more - you can here the wind very loud. We have shutters and armour screen for the patio and it is really roaring now. I am so glad all of the windows/doors are covered!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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well its going to have to start picking up that nw heading relatively soon if its going to match the NHC forecast.... key for the GOM will be where it exits the west coast of Florida... I would have never thought this thing could make it all the way to the GOM... its not there yet, but boy, it sure looks like it has a chance... 10 days ago I picked the space coast, Kennedy Space Center as my impact area... and stuck with it... also said it would be there or areas south of there... so I got real lucky with that call... based mostly on analysis that the ridge would do the job.... boy did it... but I never expected a GOM shot... wow.... bad part part about this, the worse is yet to come from Frances for the east coast as the NE and E quadrants are not onland yet..
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:48 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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You seem to be correct yet again Frank P, would this suggest another NHC track change at 11? One model comes to mind
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:50 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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The 11PM Advisory moves the track back to the west and widens the 50kt wind fields....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:53 AM |
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hi from North Miami Beach
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Hi.. just got on and reading.
Here in Northeast Dade we've had strong winds all day. Trees are down everywhere, bits and pieces of minor debris, signs, billboards, lights.. very different storm in Aventura/Sunny Isles than what rest of Dade is getting.
Lot better than what you all are getting up in Palm Beach and surrounding areas.
Not on a lot.. cable is out and most of the area is w/o electric but so far have it here...hoping it holds though with another 6 or 12 hours of this..who knows.
Watching Juno Beach on tv in what seems to be the eye.
Thanks for the updates and glad the site is up.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:57 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Actually it moved it back slightly to the east for the second landfall...Landfall forecast near Carrabelle, FL....I disagree, but that is the NHC call...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:57 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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Where did you get your info from? I have the new track shifted to the EAST, mvt to the north of Panama City.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 02:57 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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looks like they moved it more north.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:00 AM |
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Re: radar presentation...you are right
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just north of due west
don't understand how they can keep saying wnw.
I know the idea is that they believe motion will resume in that general direction but really you are right...its going just north of due west and believe in calling it like it is not what we hope it will do
especially keep in mind that the eye is funny shaped at time and the thin eye band around it is very narrow the broader band of strong winds stretches into funny shapes at times and so strong winds are further away from the eye circling around as it moves "westish" as opposed to if there was a very tight eye wall with a strong band. Winds are stretched out a bit over a broader area. Have heard it compared on local tv to Isabel?? and a few other recent storms that had a broader center of circulation.
also..looked to me on radar most of the afternoon that it intensified some .. at least five mphs but advisories have held to 105
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:01 AM |
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Track didn't change that much
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NHC is saying that the ridge will break down due to the approaching trough. I'm 50/50 on that happening. Any thoughts from any of you on this?
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:05 AM |
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Re: Track didn't change that much
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As long as we're predicting:
out around Crystal River, 2nd landfall Apalachicola.
Just my 2-cent premonition.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:06 AM |
Re: Recon Correction...
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You're right! East, West... Left, Right... Very tricky stuff!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:06 AM |
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Re: Track didn't change that much
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It will break down some....else she would just keep moving west....but I ain't buying the amount of breakdown that is forecast...
Regardless, we are talking about a 50 mile shift...with the windfields of this thing, this isn't a huge issue, but I do have a further west track.
| BabyCat |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:09 AM |
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Re: Track didn't change that much
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Jim WIlliams at Hurricane City just lost power
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 03:11 AM |
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Re: Track didn't change that much
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yeah its simple... she starts moving nw.... ridge is breaking down... next 24 hours critical for GOM interests....
NHC seems to have a lot of confidence in their forecast with her right now... but they always want to surprise ya......
I'll just wait and see where she exits the west coast.. ... hey they are probably right on but still... I think it already tracking below their projected path.... maybe she make up the minor difference in the coming hours....
cudos to Jason as he said many days ago that he thought she'd get into the GOM.... looks like that might happen
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:08 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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H2ocean-must have driven by your subdivision many times on my way to Merritt Island shopping. Love the tropical trail. Hope I can recognize it when I get back.
What should I expect from this-major structural damage or something less? It's a CBS house with hip roof.
Stay safe!!!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:19 AM |
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to John
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I sent you an email regarding a possible temporary solution to the problems you are having with the UBB forum. Please check your hotmail.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:20 AM |
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Re: to John
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whoops.. not hotmail... meant to say email. sorry (long, stressful day.)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:21 AM |
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bad weather
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THINGS ARE REALLY BAD IN MIAMI BEACH....REAL GUSTY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY HEAVY RAINS....I CAN'T IMAGINE YOU ARE ENJOYING YOURSELVES UP IN WPB AND POINTS NORTHWARD
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:23 AM |
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Re: Recon Correction...
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gailmm...so far with a CBS hip roof you should be ok that is what I have. The wind keeps getting stronger. We lost power but it came back on. It is amazing to watch the flashes from the transformers going. I can see the flashes from beachside and also on the mainland. It is getting really nasty. I hope to get a few hours of sleep tonight!d
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:28 AM |
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Windy
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Very windy here in Ormond Beach, not much rain yet, I see a feeder band on the radar soon to hit here soon. Gusts to far to 50 mph. The worst is on its way.
MaryAnn
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:40 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Maps up for Frances (probably last ones for this storm)
Includes: 1)Track with true scale of storm 2)Street level with wind field 3)Tornado in Polk County
http://www.skeetobite.com
Side note:
Since starting these maps nearly 4 days ago, Skeetobite.com has had 39,474 unique visitors with referrals by over 154 websites.
Notable who's who visiting several times per day:
NOAA
NASA
Disney
MacDill AFB
Norfolk Naval Base
HQ-USMC
US Army
USPS
State of Florida
Most of these were linked from FLHurricane.com. Let's help FLHurricane.com by contributing to the hardware needs of this valuable website (hopefully prior to Ivan getting close!)
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:41 AM |
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Re: Windy
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12:30am......rain and wind picking up in Apopka, NW Orange County.
Gusts of about 50 mph with heavy rain.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 04:46 AM |
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Re: Frances Approaching Florida
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Maps like this help make sure things like Hurricane Andrew never happen again.
Everyone should make sure they try and help keep places like this open so everyone can keep up with these dangerous super storms
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 05:01 AM |
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Re: Windy
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Well, power finally seems to be gone in my section of Ormond Beach (after a good many stops and starts).
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 05:15 AM |
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Re: Maps Skeetobite
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Thanks for the link to your maps. You are very talented. Thanks for keeping us informed.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 05:22 AM |
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Re: Maps Skeetobite
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Got to get some sleep... we will not see what S FL hasl but I am tired non the less from watching ya'll! Good Luck to all,
Coop
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:09 AM |
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Re: Maps Skeetobite
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great i just posted a long thread and it never went up,,ugh
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:11 AM |
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Re: Maps Skeetobite
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It must be really scary right now. From CNN reports most of the cities on the eastern coast that the eye wall went through have lost there power. Fort Pierce, Melborne, and West Palm Beach are in the dark. TheWeather Channel are going through the same, but they are in New Smyrna Beach and Palm Bay.
The scariest thing is that this Hurricane is going on for hours now with the howling winds so it must be like going through a tornado without a all clear siren never coming, specially in those city since they missed the calm center and are north and south of where the center hit.
CNN talking about right now the eyewall and center is about to go over Lake Okeechobee in about an hour or so.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:31 AM |
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Re: Maps Skeetobite
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I been at the NWS in ruskin today with a friend. Soo tired but we must go on. Anyways Frances made landfall as forcasted just after midnight near Stuart florida as a agruementable cat 2 with winds near 105mph. There was a drop in pressure to near 954 before recon found 957 then leveling back up around 960 at landfall. Gusts reports of up to 117mph have been reported so far near Ft Pierce.
Overall forcast looks as follows. Frances eastern eye wall should come ashore in the dawn hours giving Martin and St Lucie countys winds up to 100mph with higher gusts. Many spawned tornados and additional rainfall up to 1 foot in the N side. By afternoon the winds will drop below hurricane forces and she moves wnw and weakens over the center of the state. Expect still many feeder bands coming up around from the South and SE. Improving conditions will begin Sunday night for eastern Florida.
Over Central Florida and Tampa bay area inland hurricane warnings and Tropical storm warnings on the coast. Expect the hurricane do be downgraded by as early as 11am but maybe alittle longer into the evening as this is a large system. Expect many tornados inthe bands NW-N and NE of the center. Rainfall amounts will exceed 18 inches along and just north of the path. I expect her to exit off of Pasco County late Sunday night. Winds will be around 30-50 mph with higher gusts to the South of the path and 50-70mph in Polk and Pasco counties with higher gust near hurricane force. Monday will contiinue to bring in alot of additional rainfall as the Sw flow develops around the Se side of TS Frances by then but winds will slowly decrease during the day.
For Daytona and Ocala expect winds around 30-50mph with higher gusts, band of tornados will accompany squal lines and rainfall amounts 4-8 inches with local amounts up to 10 further south. Monday conditions will become better from Daytona to Orlando but will take till later during the afternoon along Citrus and Hernado counties.Finally Sarasota south thru Ft Myers can expect the same as above mentioned but rainfall amounts will be generally lighter totaling 1-4 inches with most up near the Sarasota - Arcadia area. Winds in Arcadia could reach 50-60mph during the afternoon for 3-6 hours as the center passes 30-50miles to the N and NE.
I do expect her to regain Hurricane strength Monday into Monday night in the Ne Gulf. Location is too early to pinpoint yet on another landfall.
On side note IVAN THE TERRIBLE might be just that in the next 24-48 hours.
| scot |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:36 AM |
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Re: Windy
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What does it look like for Orlando.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:42 AM |
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Re: Windy
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Pretty much winds by morning picking up to near 30-40mph, much more steadier rain with gusts near 50-55mph. Possible tornados will be in the convection areas pretty much anywhere. Sunday night the weather will improve near Cocoa then Orlando during Monday morning. Rainfall amounts around 4-6 inches and up to 10 inches along the coast and futher south closer to the center.
| DroopGB31 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 06:55 AM |
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Re: Windy
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Wow, Been watching the coverage on TV and Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce are getting pounded. Im willing to bet there may be a few gust near 120 in that area as the Northern Eyewall sits over them. That is the worst place to be in a hurricane because you never get the eye to come through it just keeps going and going. Thats especially true with Frances as she is moving ever so slowly Westward. It will be intresting to see what first light brings in the morning.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 07:02 AM |
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3:00
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Everything is the same. Even though she has moved .0 north and.2 west in the last couple of hrs they are still calling it a wnw motion. Whatever they say I guess.
ShawnS
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 05 2004 08:22 AM |
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Re: Windy
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Not sure I want to see. Its been howling and raining like crazy here in Ormond Beach for the past hours or so, the news said we are about ready to get hit with the strongest winds thus far at 4:32, it is currently 4:20. Just hanging on tight.
MaryAnn
Quote:
Wow, Been watching the coverage on TV and Melbourne, Vero Beach and Fort Pierce are getting pounded. Im willing to bet there may be a few gust near 120 in that area as the Northern Eyewall sits over them. That is the worst place to be in a hurricane because you never get the eye to come through it just keeps going and going. Thats especially true with Frances as she is moving ever so slowly Westward. It will be intresting to see what first light brings in the morning.