MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:31 AM |
Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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11AM Update
NHC Official Track shifts left a bit at 11, now toward West Coast of Florida again Late Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. The hurricane center also states, however, that they are very uncertain with the track at present.
10AM Update
All non-residents and visitors to the Florida Keys are now under a mandatory evacuation order. As of 9AM Today. At 7AM tomorrow the Keys will undergo a phased evacuation for residents as well.
Monroe County Emergency Management
Original Update
Hurricane Ivan is now a strong and rare Category 5 Hurricane, the highest on the scale.
Ivan is moving west Northwest in the Caribbean Sea. The Latest recon has recorded a windspeed at 151 Knots at flight level, which indicates the sustained ground windspeed may be even higher than the 160MPH at the 5AM National Hurricane Center Advisory.
Right now it still has room to get a little bit stronger. I am not sure if it will reach Gilbert levels or not, but it is possible. It is important to note that if it got to Florida, it would not be at its current intensity, it would likely be lower. Hopefully much lower.
This is not good news at all for Jamaica if it heads ion its current path. Luckily storms like this usually don't hold extreme strength too long. But if the conditions allow it for further strengthening it may still be a or category 5 or strong 4 at landfall for Jamaica. However the official forecast calls for it to weaken a bit before then.
Tropical Depression Ten formed in the east Atlantic, near the Azores. It's moving Northeast and looks to be a fiish spinner (not affecting land) for the most part.
More to come later today.
** SITE NOTE ** Although we are working on improving the site hardware and bandwidth (thanks to donations and help from others), we are still using the old system currently, with slight modifications. Therefore the site may go down from time to time, although not for very long. We are continually working on improving the response without removing usefulness. We have new hardware on order and should be in sometime next week.
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Event RelatedLinks
Stormcarib personal reports from Jamaica
Ivan Models -- This image animated over time
Ivan Spaghetti Model from Hurricanealley/boatus (Working Link)
Weather Underground Model Plots for Ivan
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image (Animated Version)
High Speed Satellite Loops (Click floater)
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa. Miami, Key West, Tallahassee.
Melbourne
Hurricane Local Statements for Weather Offices in:
Key West (Florida Keys)Long Range Radar Loop
General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:42 AM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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224
WTNT61 KNHC 091040
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
635 AM AST THU SEP 9 2004
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN
THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO
REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN
MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH
INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO
INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET
ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.
FORECASTER STEWART
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 11:57 AM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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It now appears Ivan the Terrible is moving solidly WNW, and it looks like intensification may have slowed down or stopped based on the inner-core convection. Really not a surprise since it has gone through 2 intens. bursts since yesterday. The GFS seems to be doing what it did with Frances, and that is insisting on a far-right track. With Frances, several runs around day 5 called for landfall in the Carolinas. I am not sure why this model is behaving this way, if I remember correctly, it did a pretty good job with Isabel and others. About a week ago, one of the forecasters at the NWSFO in Mount Holly talked about how the recent MJO activity correllated well to the activity in the tropics. He stated at the time that the eastern trough pattern was disrupted in early August by the MJO activity, and that that trough was not likely to return in the near future (written on 9-4).
It has been a strange year. South America gets hit by a hurricane, and there are 2 others out there, plus Japan gets hit by 7 typhoons this year, in addition to our troubles in the tropics. This year deserves a lot of study.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:16 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I looked at the NHC 5-day projections and the different models. They all show some amount of northerly turn, which is why it's apparently now going to Florida. Anyway, how is it that a storm that big can make sure a dramatic turn?
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:29 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Is there any truth to the saying that hurricanes can create their own environment?
Could Ivan do this - if its possible?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:32 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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The ETA (not trusting it totally at this point either) is much more to the left than the GFS. I think Ivan has gradually made a rightward turn since yesterday. If this were the size of Gilbert, I would say they are all too far to the right. It may have been 16 years ago, but I seem to remember Gilbert was forecasted originally to hit several hundred miles farther east than it did. That monster also took up a lot of space, and totally altered its surroundings. It just wouldn't (couldn't?) turn. This one looks like it can. If this hits Jamaica head-on, it will be worse than Gilbert if it remains at this intensity. It took many years for them to recover from that one.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:37 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I was writing my last post when you posed the question about creating their own environments that I touched on.
Yes, if they are big enough and strong enough, they can. As I alluded to above, Gilbert not only created its own environment, but altered the weather pattern for weeks to come if memory serves. Without seeing maps from that time, I recall Gilbert hitting NE Mexico, and getting lost in the mountains, but the high aloft that went with it, remained over the GOM for several weeks, and cleaned things out for a while. If anyone remembers this differently, feel free to set me straight on that, but that is what I remember. Also, Gilbert was the strongest ever, and its pressure dropped to 888 mbs. in addition to its huge areal coverage.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:39 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Latest WV imagery show a fast moving ridge to the east of FL. Extrapolated plot would put this ridge covering the southern half of the FL peninsula in 18-24hrs. This is provided that the current speed and direction are maintained.
The ridge is moving westward at at rather rapid rate. A 2 hour loop looks like 10-15mph. 1145Z western most point of the ridge is on a line with the Ft Pierce area.
Maybe this will give FL some protection!
Correction, Ridge axis extends to a point east of the Melbourne/KSC area. 30.0N/ 75.0W roughly
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES121520042533CTHa9.jpg
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:49 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Hurricane Gilbert had the lowest sea level pressure (888 Mb) ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere. Gilbert reached category 5 status, but at the time of it's landfall over Cozumel, Mexico it had weakened to a category 3 storm. Gilbert tracked northeast into Texas and Oklahoma.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 12:57 PM |
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Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics
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Loop this image, and watch the area off the FL east coast move west, a little faster than Ivan's forward speed.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Has anyone else noticed the paths of Charley and Ivan are on top of each other?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics
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Do hurricanes create they're own enviroment? Yes and really NO. They can improve the outflow and different aspects to the storm, but they dont make them go 1 way or another. Even with a storm like this or in past years such as floyd,,,a trough or other dynamics in the atmosphere will still cause a hurricane to move in the direction of the flow infront of the mid level system or troughiness. So to answer your question really,,,,,,,NO they dont change the path if a they are like cat 4 or 5.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:12 PM |
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Florida Keys
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The Florida Keys are now being evacuated. This is for visitors and mobile homes.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:14 PM |
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GOM Discussion -Effect on Ivan?
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What effect might this have on Ivan's path?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU 09 SEP 2004
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
NEARLY STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL GLFMEX EXTENDING SWD FROM T.D FRANCES NOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH SUPPRESSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SAVE A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF AREA...TO THE NORTH CENTRAL PART...TO 25N96W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE MID-UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA WILL
BUILD WESTWARD PROVIDING AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FORMATION OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN BAND OF ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO BY FRI MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 26N84W TO 23N87W TO 20N90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:17 PM |
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Re: Ivan Water Vapor Pics
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Good morning and welcome back! Missed this site for the past 6 days.
Great posts on the WV loops.
The dynamic which will dictate this storm's solution is much more visible than with Frances.
clearly the race is on between the trough approaching from the west and north west and the ridge still advancing in the ATL.
the trough into the GOM left behind by Frances will play a role in this, and could be the point of convergence. Mets today are talking rather confidently that this trough will dissipate today and then allow a more right turn to the storm...could be.
my attention will be to that area over the GOM all day. Right now it looks like it is setting up as the zone of convergence between the still advancing strong ridge to the north and east of the storm and the advancing trough over the midwest US.
Watch how the upper air flows in this zone and we could see what Ivan may do...I don't like what I see so far by the way...
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:19 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Ivan seems to have gone nearly due west for the last few hours. I know it is just a jog, but at the speed it is moving, each jog puts it well off course.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:29 PM |
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Re: Ivan Pics
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1301Z Visible Close up of Ivan's eye; You don't get to see many CAT 5 visible. Thank goodness!
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13012004253NeIU2w.jpg
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:29 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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I have friends vacationing in the Caymans. Have they been asked to evacuate yet? I still think ivan will pass south of Jamaica and head towards West Cuba and then the SE GOM.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:38 PM |
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Ivan tending a tad more west this morning
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The last few frames, 4 or so, see a definite more move to the west than wnw...probably at the moment, moving wwnw...
Whether this holds...who knows. I would hate to be in Jamaica...
Worst case scenario is to slip through the Yucatan channel.
Can't get a feeling for this one...at all. I think with each passing day, the track will alter. In the last 24 hours, it has altered a lot. Any change in direction...(and there will be) will alter it more...
about 500 miles from Jamaica..and at 15 MPH.. (a perfect speed, really)...the hurricane will hit in the early evening tomorrow, in Jamaica.
Think the path will scrape the bottom, and they will get the worst of it...
we will see
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:42 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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you are correct, after it banked up against the mountains in Mexico, it did turn and move through Texas and Okl.
The biggest change to the atmosphere that I remember, was the large upper level high that persisted over the Gulf, as TWC discussed it at the time.
Here is a great close up of Gilbert:
http://www.weathersatellite.info/gilbert.html
Tropical cyclone "rules"
http://www.wxrisk.com/hurricane/FrcstTechnq/forecastrules.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:52 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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I can't find any updates from the Cayman Islands in repsect to evacuation. I did however find an updated airline shedule for the next few days.
Main link
http://www.caymanport.com/weather.htm
Airline update.
http://www.gov.ky/servlet/page?_pageid=2...amp;orgcode=189
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 01:58 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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rich,
where did you get the info on the keys?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:03 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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He is correct,, they are doing a evacuation of the keys as of 9am eastern. Not sure if its manditory or volentery. Then again really if you think about it,, whats the difference betweeen volentary and just deciding to leave anywhere, basically if you live anywhere you can say, i want to leave. Anways i know the rules on that, just dont think its a right saying. There should be only manditory ones.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:08 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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i think what that means is we are not going to make you leave but you are on your own if you don't. with a 4-5 coming at me if i lived on the keys i would be outta there. question is where do you go. the whole state above you is still tore up. guess that is why they are doing it so far in advance.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Non-Residents In Florida Keys Ordered To Evacuate
http://www.nbc6.net/weather/3709747/detail.html
Mandatory evacuation! Or your name, address, current photo and next of kin-for those that don't evacuate the Keys.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:11 PM |
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From Monroe County Emergency Management
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Thursday, September 9, 2004
The National Hurricane Center in Miami is currently projecting that dangerous Hurricane Ivan will impact the Florida Keys late Sunday or early Monday. Because of the severity of the storm, Monroe County Emergency Management is beginning to issue protective actions and county officials have declared a local state of emergency effective at 8 am Thursday.
Emergency Management has ordered a mandatory evacuation for all the Florida Keys for non-residents, visitors and recreational vehicles beginning at 9 am Thursday morning. Owners of trailers and boat trailers should remove their property from the Keys Thursday beginning at 9 am as well.
Mobile home residents should begin to evacuate at 6 pm Thursday.
Emergency Management intends to initiate a phased evacuation of all residents in the Florida Keys and Flamingo Friday morning at 7 am. All residents that wish to leave THursday, are encouraged to do so.
All tolls on Card Sound Road are lifted at 9 am.
County and state parks will close Thursday.
Boat owners should secure their craft Thursday. The bridges at Snake Creek and Jewfish Creek will be locked in the down position (so that vehicles can pass) beginning Friday at 7 am.
A tractor-tanker trailer accident that had blocked US 1 at mile marker 28 on Little Torch Keys has been cleared, and the road has reopened.
All Monroe County schools are scheduled to close Friday.
Monroe County Emergency Management urges all residents and visitors to remain calm, listen and respond to directives. There is ample time to make necessary preparations.
Additional advisories and information will be issued later Thursday.
http://www.co.monroe.fl.us/EOC/ivan.htm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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9:00AM Sept 9 is mandatory evac for non residents. Friday AM 7:00 phased mandatory evacuation of residents begins.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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anyway someone can post the spagetti links page? I would really like to see what the model shows...... with a mom and grandparents in Vero, godparents is Sarasota, and a husband in Orlando helping to restock the Lowes after Frances...........I think I might end up with an ulcer by the time the '04 hurricane season ends.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Hi, I have been addicted to this page all week. Can anyone tell me if they expect Ivan to hit Orlando?? We are flying in on Sept 15 and are wondering if we should cancell.
Please also let me say that I feel horrible for all the people of Florida, this is so unfair that they might be hit again. How much can 1 State take???
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:25 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Quote:
anyway someone can post the spagetti links page? I would really like to see what the model shows...... with a mom and grandparents in Vero, godparents is Sarasota, and a husband in Orlando helping to restock the Lowes after Frances...........I think I might end up with an ulcer by the time the '04 hurricane season ends.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp
It's on the big list on the article too..
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:28 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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mike,
thanks for getting the site going again. i was lost last weekend without it.
| mlamay |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Hey all I am new to this site.
Ivan would have to make a pretty sharp turn to the right fairly quickly, and I just don't see a sharp turn happening considering that it is a cat 5 and that it would have to make a 90 degree turn by midnite tonight to miss FL. Especially since it has seemed to have taken a more Westerly course in the last 3- 4 frames. I have had a bad feeling about this one from the start and I still belive it is going to impact the West Central coast of FL sometime Monday night. I will wait until the Sat night models come out and judging by that we will evacuate.
I heard about the evacuations in Key West this morning on the radio
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:32 PM |
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Trough
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From what I'm seeing on the other sites and local NWS statements the trough that is FORECASTED to erode the ridge and allow Ivan to make the more northerly movement has not even developed yet. Is there a chance that it never does or that it will not have that much effect on the ridge?
ShawnS
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:33 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Very nice pic. Thx!
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:37 PM |
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Re: Trough
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I certainly don't know where it is coming from. Here in Bham, we are not forcast to have any kind of trough come through over the next 7 days. Nothing but clear skies and warm temps.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:41 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Remember last year all the hype the hurricane season was getting, and we only realy got was Claudette and Isabel, and FL got of scott free pretty much. Well I think the climatoligists were a year off. Though last year I was working in the states forecasting the effects of the storms, this year I watch them from afar in Germany. I just pray everyone in Jamaca and FL are more prepared this time.
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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does anyone have a compairison between Charlie, Frances, and Ivan? (as far as storm size, wind speed, pressure, etc) and if so, can you please post it. Thx
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: Florida Keys
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Quote:
i think what that means is we are not going to make you leave but you are on your own if you don't. with a 4-5 coming at me if i lived on the keys i would be outta there. question is where do you go. the whole state above you is still tore up. guess that is why they are doing it so far in advance.
anywhere is better than the keys in a 4-5. problem is the water build up even at thee vac centers. they have cat 4-5 building s but if it floods forget it. Dade county has plenty of suitable shelter for those that wish to evacuate
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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I don't know, but it seems like models shift left and right on these mammoth storms. I have a feeling it could end up farther east than forecasted. It's all going to depend on timing! Morgan City, LA Eastward should not let their guard down with a storm like this for sure!
Ivan reminds me of Mitch a lot!
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:02 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Unfortunately, I think Central and South Floridians are more prepared for another storm than usual. Most have have probably stocked up twice already for storms this year...and if it didn't hit we still have some of the supplies around the house...but who can prepare for a storm with 103kt winds racing up toward you from the south? Oh well....I guess this is what is was like in Florida during the 1930/40s with a hurricane threat every season.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:02 PM |
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comparison from skeetobite
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This image from skeetobite gives a good idea of size comparison. Although i think it is from the 5am Advisory a couple of days ago. Keep checking his site at www.skeetobite.com for updated graphics.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: Ivan tending a tad more west this morning
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The 5am discussion spent many lines discussing the ULL digging in and diving SW now located at 36n/48w...indeed it is doing that...this may be what will push that ridge also diving to the sw. Florida is again in the center of the bulls eye...enough is enough already!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 PM |
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Re: comparison from skeetobite
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Quote:
This image from skeetobite gives a good idea of size comparison. Although i think it is from the 5am Advisory a couple of days ago. Keep checking his site at www.skeetobite.com for updated graphics.
This storm looks like anouther Camille
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:07 PM |
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11 am Forecast moves a little west...even worse for FL
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_5day.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:17 PM |
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Thank you from stormy Orlando
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I wanted to say a heartfelt thank you to those compassionate people who haave wished Ivan upon themselves rather than have it hit Florida as the third in a month. I live in South Orlando. My house was in the eye of Charley and in the northeast quadrant of Frances. We lost a tree and the roof from our carport. The debris from Charley was just picked up last night, so the majority of my neighborhood still had Charley debris during Frances. We were without power for 5 days in Charley and 1 in Frances. I am listing this not for pity, but to show that compared to others around the state, I did fairly well. God was watching out for us.
Being through these storms has allowed me to witness a community uniting in destruction, not in a micro sense, but as a macrocommunity encompassing all of Central Florida. Neighbor helping neighbor.
I speak for the citizens of Florida when I say that we don't wish Ivan or any other severe storm on anybody else. We would like to see it simply flounder in open water. But it does mean a lot to read of the compassion that residents of other hurricane prone states have towards Florida.
Please continue to keep those of us in storm-affected areas of Florida in your prayers and thoughts as we clean up from Charley and Frances (and perhaps prepare for Ivan).
God Bless
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Thank you from stormy Orlando
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I want to thank the person who just posted from Orlando about all of the folks who have been so helpful to us here. I live in Oviedo (Seminole County) and had more or less the same damage as "in orlando". I hope somehow EVERYBODY gets spared, be they in Florida, Mississippi, Alabama or anywhere else this thing could land. So, I second the "thanks" that "in orlando" gave.
deb
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:29 PM |
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Re: Thank you from stormy Orlando
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I know that this Southern Alabama girl will continue to pray for those of you in Florida. We have a member of our church who was down there with the insurance adjusters and said that it was awful before Francis hit. They sent him home prior to Francis. I keep looking and reading hoping I find something to keep this thing away from Florida. This morning on our local weather they said the drop sondes (sp?) picked up 210 mph winds at 350 feet above sea level. That is scary. I know there are a lot of questions about where it will go, but I believe we all need to pray for a halt in Ivan. Wherever it ends up IT'S GONNA BE BAD!!! Don't forget to be praying for those in Jamaica today and tomorrow. GOD'S SPEED TO YOU GUYS IN FLORIDA.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:40 PM |
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south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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The 4-5 day official
forecast...which is highly uncertain...calls for a solution in
between...bringing the hurricane over west/central Cuba into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and then Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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If one only has enough material to cover the windows to protect one side of ones house, which side should it be?
| alan |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:49 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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There are two many ifs to answer that question about which side of the house.
Remember, if you are directly hit, you will get winds from two directions. If it is a side glane, you will get hit from three directions.
Also, are there other buildings protecting it from debris on any of the sides?
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:51 PM |
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Map updates
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Full size images available at Skeetobite.com
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:56 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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Quote:
Full size images available at Skeetobite.com
Good stuff. Thanks for the update and keep up the good work
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 03:58 PM |
Re: Map updates
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I hope your street level is wrong, firstly I live in Plant City and I don't want it anywhere near me, and secondly, I would hate to see it make landfall in Port Charlotte again.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:02 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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Quote:
I hope your street level is wrong, firstly I live in Plant City and I don't want it anywhere near me, and secondly, I would hate to see it make landfall in Port Charlotte again.
All maps are accurate to within 100 meters of the forecast path.
Looks like the secret lab will have a third hit in 4 weeks.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:04 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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That appears like a worst case scenario. Hope that track is wrong, but it looks pretty good. Again, I don't think there is any way for the US to avoid another major hit.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:09 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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Skeetobyte,
I appreciate your maps.
It looks like your secret lab site is not a secret......at least to the hurricanes this year.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:12 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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I've been reading here for awhile, but first time posting. My profile says Tampa, but I'm actually in Wesley Chapel/Zephyrhills which is northeast of Tampa. I don't like what I'm hearing at all. They say Tampa, then go somewhere else, then come right back to this area. Charley & Frances made me slightly nervous, but this one flat-out scares me. I was born in Tampa, and have lived here off and on since 1971, and I have NEVER seen anything like this year. You've got to wonder what we did to deserve this.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:13 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Well it's good to be back. Thanks to Mike and everyone else who has a hand in keeping this site up and running. Now to Ivan.
Once again many of the models have put us here in Florida under the bullseye. The problem that I've noticed with the models so far is that they've trended too far north. Even comparing the runs from last night to this morning it's easy to see that Ivan has not followed the more northerly path that many have forecasted. What does this mean? Well it's very important how far north Ivan is when the trough comes through and weakens the ridge that is currently keeping Ivan south and moving WNW(much like Frances). However, most of the models right now believe that sooner rather than later Ivan will be far enough north to start his turn within the next day or so(Thursday night/Friday morning). But like I said most of the models have also had Ivan a bit too far north to begin with. If Ivan stays far enough south he won't start the north turn until he's gotten much farther west than many of the models have forecasted. Bringing him probably over the western end of Cuba and hopefully staying off the coast of Florida. Basically it comes down to whether Ivan is far enough north to take advantage of the weakness in the ridge over Florida that he makes a sharp turn to the NW then North. If not, then he continues chugging to the west until the other low, currently over the SW U.S. moves through and forces him to make a turn. It will be very important to see where Ivan is when he reaches Jamaica. Further south than currently forecasted and he probably doesn't make a dramatic NW/N turn. Either way everyone needs to pray for the people in Jamaica because they are going to be hit hard no matter what.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:15 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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Tena do you live in meadow pointe?
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:17 PM |
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Rick, I thought you would be predicting Mobile Bay by now. Just kidding... This storm does concern me (as it should everyone on the Gulf Coast). My parents are elderly and live right off of Mobile Bay. If Frederick had not turned and sucked the Bay dry, our house would have been under water. It took two days to cut the trees off of the road to see if we had a house left. FEMA people came to check on us and said that by air they could see that over 100 tornados went through our woods and "someone sure must have been praying in that house". My father told him "we were praying, but we were not in that house"!!! I guess there is still somewhat of a good chance that this thing could hit northern central Gulf of Mexico???
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:21 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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It is so great to see the board back up again. Thanks to all for your thoughts and prayers during out last two attacks here in Central Fla. Living in St. Cloud has proven to be a true adventure this season. We are beginning to feel like a punch drunk boxer. Charley hit us hard to the head, and Frances beat us down with unceasing body blows. we are still standing but we are definitely weakened. The prospect of Ivan has everyone on edge.
the strain on the emotions of all, even those with minimal damage is beginning to show. Much quieter in the workplace, grocery stores etc. People are really in a Zombie state, and many are talking about just packing up and leaving. It is very disquieting to live 5 block from the major lake here in St.Cloud, and to have to sweep sand out of your bed at night because Frances blew it through the cracks in your Lumber and windows. I don't think we have been dry in over 3 weeks. If the power isn't out, the humidity is so high as to make it unbearable.
I pray that this thing just spins itself into oblivion and never touches land again, but I am also a realist. I know that we will once again feel the fury, I just hope we are all strong enough to survive. Keep up the strong work, many of us have learned to rely on you and Tom Terry of WFTV-9 as our guides.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:23 PM |
Re: Map updates
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Just a quick note from up here in the frozen North to wish all the Canuck snowbirds down there the best of luck and to encourage all the board readers to pony up to help out the guy that runs this site. I found this site last year and it gives me endless hours of education. I am no fan of dangerous hurricanes and the harm they cause, but I love to learn about the weather. So.....take a moment.....think about what you receive.....and pull out your plastic.....its time.
Thanks for the service, Mike
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:24 PM |
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Re: Map updates
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No, I live near the intersection of SR 56 and Bruce B. Downs. It's actually Wesley Chapel, but emergency services still has us as Zephyrhills.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:24 PM |
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Trough
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Remember, we are talking about a trough that from the last I heard has not even developed yet. Until it does than everyone is game. I still say Florida but it still is up in the air at this point.
ShawnS
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:25 PM |
Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Great information!! That answers the question I just asked. I guess there is a chance this thing could go ANYWHERE!! :?:
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:25 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Amen. My wife and I visited Jamaica last year on a business trip (not much business though) and spent 4 days at the Ritz Carlton. We didn't stray from the resort, but we were perfectly happy not to. The people there treated us so well, we weren't used to it. So, I have developed a soft spot for the country and its people. I also realize that tourism is a major part of their economy, and it is terrible to think that 12 hours of weather could devastate that for many years. The guy I talked to in the resort was young when Gilbert hit, but he remembered it, and did state that it took a long time to rebuild. And as far as Florida, I can't imagine have 3 major hurricanes hit in about 1 month. No matter how fast the gov't responds, it becomes harder with each incident. I can picture debris from Charley being tossed around by Frances, and picked up again by Ivan.
Our thoughts and prayers go out to all of you. I have an uncle south of WPB who is in his 80's, and was stuck in an elevator for 2 hours. I would consider him one of the lucky ones.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:26 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Question! What are the steering currents that we suppose to be keeping and eye on and where are they?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:30 PM |
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IRONIC???
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I hate to bring this up but has anyone thought about what Saturday is?
9/11!!!
Can things get any worse?
It can not happen like this!
ShawnS
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:34 PM |
Re: IRONIC???
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Quote:
I hate to bring this up but has anyone thought about what Saturday is?
9/11!!!
Can things get any worse?
It can not happen like this!
ShawnS
next think all the conspiracy theorist will say that the terrorist planning the weather to hit the most important state in the election.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:38 PM |
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heart out to all in Florida
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We visited our son and his wife and our grandson last Friday and returned home to new jersey on Tuesday of this week. Fortunately, their home is in North Port and they only received 75 mile per hour winds - however, my son employment is in Port Charlotte and was there when Charley hit. He is administrator of a health care facility and everyone there was fine - because it changed at the last minute no one was evacuated ----the devistation in the neighborhoods and the businesses were horrible. I cried when we saw everything. So my thoughts are all in Florida and I pray for everyone. :ooo:
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Quote:
Remember, we are talking about a trough that from the last I heard has not even developed yet. Until it does than everyone is game. I still say Florida but it still is up in the air at this point.
ShawnS
The trough I was speaking of is the one currently just north of Florida. It is "pushing" the remnants of Frances off to the NE, and is forecasted to erode to the western side of the high pressure ridge that's sitting to the east of Florida. This erosion would cause Ivan to make his NW/N turn and track between the Caymans and Cuba. However, if he is far enough south the weakness in the ridge won't affect him as much and he will continue to track to the WNW and won't make the NW/N turn until later than was forecast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:47 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.
Can you post pictures on this forum?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:47 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Quote:
Question! What are the steering currents that we suppose to be keeping and eye on and where are they?
Here is a good look at some of the upper level winds and where that low/trough is.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:49 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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shawn I know your hoping for a landfall my you in houston, but chances of that happeing are like 2%. I see you are saying though that it will probably be near western florida and you are in good odds with that. The trough that you say hasnt formed yet is already there. The strength of it compared to the strength of the ridge over the next 3-5 days is the key on where the turn will be,, Panama City? Tampa? Everglades? who knows right now, but will say this, it wont be a cat 5 when it makes landfall, infact it might not even be a cat4. Dryier air is going to be absorbed into the system after it get north of cuba. Also shear will start during that time frame. If it does make it north of 28dg and w of 83 then still cooler water from Frances will also inhibit strengthning. Right now I would say Cat 3 with winds around 125-130. Landfall I wont call yet till Friday evening. Basically though its a Florida call and to through in a if anything, a movement skimming the se florida coast isnt totally out of the question. Basically the NHC forcast looks on track.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Quote:
Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.
Can you post pictures on this forum?
Yes, you can post attachements. Make sure the checkbox next to preview/attach is checked when you create your post.
I expect there is a lot more in Cocoa Beach that would break if a Cat 4 or 5 hit there, I wouldn't be begging for one. There is certainly a whole lot of destruction that would happen if Ivan goes in around Tampa Bay. No reason to beg for destruction.
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: IRONIC???
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Michael Moore will be having a field day with this... him and his conspiracy theories.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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I think i really need to review my spelling instead of doing a paragraph in 20 sec and sending it. LOL
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:52 PM |
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Maps and long range forecasts
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Are ridiculous at this point. To show a landfall in South Florida is only because the NHC has to give us something. However, the forecast beyond 3 days is HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
As well, the models are in excellent agreement that Ivan the Terrible will traverse the southern high pressure ridge on a general wnw track for the next 3 days. In my mind, at the moment, that is ALL we can be sure of.
Therefore..NO one is out of the woods...from the Florida Keys to anywhere on the Gulf Coast.
I believe it must be a super precautionary move to begin evacuating the vacationers down in the keys...
These hurricanes, and the destruction...are in a SMALL window.
For instance..the hurricane passed about, what 80 miles north of Aruba..and the winds there were 40 mph max. Remember....it's really a little bulls eye..and kinda has to hit you on the chin to be a widow maker...100 miles this way or that...and it ain't much...
oh, and hope that you don't catch the right side of the storm too...
we will see
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:52 PM |
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Re: Trough
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Projected Path
Noone is out of the woods from New Orleans Eastward. We're not going to know till probably tomorrow or Saturday for 100% certain.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:54 PM |
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Jamaica, Caymans & 9/11
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Afternoon all...been busy actually working today. Never been to Jamaica but I did vacation in Grand Cayman three or four years ago...our hotel was Still recovering from Gilbert...the beachfront went from about 200' to about 20'. In fact, the storm forced the previous hotel chain to fold its operations to another. I cannot imagine what Ivan will do to these areas who rely so heavily on tourism $$$.
As far as Saturday's date, I had made a personal commitment to myself that I would not post on that day, but it looks as though Ivan may change those plans...to those who talked about how the past two storms brought communities together...that's exactly the way it was up here after 9/11. Civility was the rule of thumb. Of course, it lasted all of about a month, but for a time, we were all brothers in arms.
My prayers go out to everyone affected by Charley and Frances...while still a ways out, it looks as though Ivan in a (hopefully) weakened state will enter South Florida West Coast (near the glades) shoot across exiting the east coast north of the space center, then take dead aim at Hattaras. Not a good scenario at all.
Good luck to all in his path.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:55 PM |
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Re: Trough
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rick your chances are higher then shawns, but not by that much, it could on the outside possibility make it close to Pensacola-Panama city, but we will see.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:55 PM |
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Re: Maps and long range forecasts
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They have to evacuate the Keys early. Remember, there's only 1 road out of that place. Plus, airports get jammed up with all the tourists trying to fly out.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:56 PM |
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Re: Maps and long range forecasts
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Quote:
I believe it must be a super precautionary move to begin evacuating the vacationers down in the keys...
These hurricanes, and the destruction...are in a SMALL window.
Not at all. It takes something like 24-36 hours to evacuate the keys. If you wait too long, it'll be too late. Once Tropical Storm force winds get there, the bridges become difficult or impossible to driver over. Also, there is a very good chance it will hit somewhere along the keys. They need to start getting people out now, or it will be too late.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:56 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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a co-worker just got back from lunch and said on the radio they said it was moving more north now. that we weren't outta of the woods but looking better. looks like that as long as it was moving west we were looking better.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 04:59 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Tena you live by the Publix and Belles outlet. I live about 2 miles from you by the Super Target.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:04 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Quote:
Tena you live by the Publix and Belles outlet. I live about 2 miles from you by the Super Target.
You're exactly right, we're in the new Seven Oaks subdivision. Did you guys keep power with Frances?
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:04 PM |
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Re: Maps and long range forecasts
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Quote:
They have to evacuate the Keys early. Remember, there's only 1 road out of that place. Plus, airports get jammed up with all the tourists trying to fly out.
Also, where can those people go that isn't a 2 day drive to get to? Florida's southwest coast was decimated by Charley; Florida's southeast coast was damaged by Frances, and Central Florida, North Florida and the panhandle were all hit hard. Georgia and the Carolinas all the way to New York are underwater. Where is there to go?
Also, has anyone else heard that the subway system in New York City had to shut down from excessive flooding from Frances? I heard that from several people this morning.
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:06 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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After seeing Skeetobite's graphics, I feel like one of those folks who get the giggles at a funeral. This graphic just sums it up.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:08 PM |
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Re: Maps and long range forecasts
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"Also, where can those people go that isn't a 2 day drive to get to? Florida's southwest coast was decimated by Charley; Florida's southeast coast was damaged by Frances, and Central Florida, North Florida and the panhandle were all hit hard. Georgia and the Carolinas all the way to New York are underwater. Where is there to go?"
Not to mention the fact that people learned after Charley that you can't just evacuate inland, the storm seems to follow you. And....last but not least, there aren't hotel rooms to be found around here. They are completely full with aid workers, utility workers, and everyone else that came to help with Charley/Frances recovery.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:10 PM |
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will miss Jamaica
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Not to poo poo the maps...but if you look at the satellite floater loop...Ivan is way south and west of the forecasted map on this website.
In my feeble mind and way of thinking...it will traverse about 60-100 miles SOUTH of Jamaica..
that being said..the current latest thinking, and all odds thrown in...gives it a panama city strike...however...WAY WAY to early for that...
worst case scenario..but a REAL possibility....through the Yucatan....unscathed...
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:12 PM |
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Cat 2 and Cat 5 NOT same beast.
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Quote:
Here in Cocoa Beach, everything that would break, did break. Bring it on.
A category 2 and a category 4/5 are two very different beasts. Look around you at the damage you sustained.
Now look here:
URL Link
Sorry to nix your pix, but it's killing the bandwidth and expanding the page...
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:12 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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Looking at the current WV loops it appears to me that the ridge is actually extending westward towards Florida and the Bahamas. How much the trough can weaken that ridge, and where Ivan is when that weakening takes place will be a huge key to where he tracks.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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Looking at the 48 hour forecast given 2 days ago, at 12z it was supposed to be at 15 north 71.5 west. This morning, it was at 14.5 and 71.4. That is pretty darn close. In fact, I think that is a good job of forecasting.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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Look at what SNONUT says.
Track: Ivan is now moving between (285-295 degrees) at 17 mph…this motion is expected for the next 36-48 hours with a gradually increasing northward component through the period.
This will take Ivan on a path over or just south (no more than 50 miles south) of Jamaica during Friday afternoon. If this thinking is correct Jamaica will sustain a direct or very near a direct hit by a very intense hurricane.
From there expect a path that will take Ivan across extreme western Cuba emerging near 23N/83W Sunday afternoon…this is essentially over the Isle of Youth….before crossing Cuba.
It will cross Cuba at a brisk pace, and the terrain is not that rough…so expect little disruption in the overall circulation.
Once emerging from Cuba Ivan will continue NW to NNW taking aim on the Gulf Coast…between the MS/AL border eastward to Cedar Key, Fl…timing looks like late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.
This track is only a very short distance (30-40 miles) to the left of the official TPC track…and about 100 miles to the right of my thinking from Tuesday evening update.
There remains quite a bit of model spread and flip-flop today….the GFS seems clueless with a track across eastern Cuba, east of the Bahamas and out to sea off the east coast. The UKMET is right of my track with a projected landfall along the S.W. Florida coast near Ft. Myers. NOGAPS is across west-central Cuba…up right along the Fl west coast with landfall near Cedar Key. The 18Z GFDL….is as lost in the darkness as the GFS…it cuts across central Cuba with a landfall near Miami. The GDFL has been making wild swings back and forth and is essentially useless at this point. If order for either the GFS or GFDL to verify Ivan would have to turn sharply Northwest in the next 6 hours…and that is not going to happen.
The 12Z Euro….is right there with the GFDL…over central Cuba….right up along the FL east coast with an eventual landfall on the SC coast.
The 12Z Canadian Global is to the left of the UKMET through the Yucatan Channel with an eventual landfall on the Gulf coast of MS/AL. While I'm no big fan of this model and its ability to predict long term motions of tropical cyclones I just mention it so you can see how much spread there is among the global models.
The latest 00Z Medium BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFS…the latest 00Z Deep BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFDL only a little slower.
Bottom line…the models have been rightward biased for the last 3-4 days and I think that continues. So my forecast is close to the UKMET and the official TPC 5pm track package.
So there is much model spread, but the bottom line is that a major hurricane will likely threaten the Eastern Gulf coast states late in the weekend and early next week.
Residents from the LA/MS border eastward to the west coast of Florida need to monitor future updates on Ivan.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: Maps and long range forecasts
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yes, living in NJ, the news had the NYC subway on this AM. It was indeed closed down
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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NO WAY... you wish it on someone else.
| Kovacs |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:19 PM |
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Re: south of Jamaica..then NO ONE KNOWS
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Hi Everyone,
This is my first post here, but I have been lurking for a while.
My whole family still lives in the Panama City area. Most of my friends live in Orlando and I am in Brevard County Florida. I do not like this storm at all. It looks to me from the models that it could go to the Gulf, just as easy as south Florida.
I have to say that I love this site, and it helps a lot to see other people tracking and giving opinions. I have learned a lot about this stuff. Thank you.
Leslie
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:20 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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I think that there are a lot of wishcasters on here that would love to see some action, but before you say its coming here this and that remember all of the people who are without power "I am one" and the people who lost everything they owned. I think that the nhc has done a good job with the last two hurricanes so, I will go with them on this one too.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:23 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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I agree wholeheartedly, and am sorry to hear of your loss. My thoughts and prayers are with you. My post was trying to point out that the NHC is doing a good job.
I hope I was not the one you were referring to as wishcasting, because that is not something I am engaged in.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:24 PM |
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GaryC
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I'm not wishcasting here to Texas; I AM wishcasting it away from Florida,though! I'm just trying to point out any possibilities that could somehow keep it away from Florida.
ShawnS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:25 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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no tena i was out of power for about 36hours till about midnight monday night/tuesday morning, did you lose power? how long
Scott, e-mail Mike to get a password (new or old); then use the PM feature. The main board is not a chat room! Thanks.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:28 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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The GFS is not exactly out to sea, but a very odd track. This path shows it appearently going out to sea, but then veering back into Tidewater Va. Since we got socked by a CAT 1 Isabel last year, this angle as as a II or III would be devestating:
http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=gfsx&file=tpptmslp
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:30 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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I agree with SoonerShawn about the wishcasting away from Florida. Here in Mobile there are not only a great number of people praying for the folks in Florida, but even the kids are getting in on the action. One of our local schools are getting a bunch of things together to send to one of the elementary schools down there. Also, our Baptist Association is organizing a HUGE line of trucks full of necessities. The last I heard they were waiting on more trucks and I think they were going to leave tomorrow, but don't know if the trip has been postponed due to Ivan. But, GaryC, my heart goes out to you and all of the rest who are doing without right now. We all need to stop and count our blessings.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:31 PM |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
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I didnt lose anyone, or anything "Thank God!" but i have friends lost alot. I will say this, if the storm is anywhere near Florida again it will be bad especially if it is in the Cent FL area. You hear up here every year that we will not ever get anything, now it has everyone looking at the internet and tv waiting for the news. Anyways, I would like to Thank Mike and John for this site. I will be sending a small token of my graditude to you guys for the hardware upgrade and if anyone has had enjoyment from this free website you should do the same. It is a thankless job they have. Thanks again!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:31 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Kimberly,.,,,,clearify plz your landfall projection,,near the top you say in the Panhandle of florida, then further down you say with the Ukmet in sw florida. Which one? Also you said its in line with the 5pm NHC track, thats not out yet, also the 18z runs are not quite out yet.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:33 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Oh nm kimberly,,,,what you read was last nights report. Its 12-18hours old.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:41 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Scott, Sorry about any confusion. I was reading SNONUT and I guess this was from yesterday, but found it very interesting (scary) that SNONUT was going with the UKMET:
"The 12Z Canadian Global is to the left of the UKMET through the Yucatan Channel with an eventual landfall on the Gulf coast of MS/AL. While I'm no big fan of this model and its ability to predict long term motions of tropical cyclones I just mention it so you can see how much spread there is among the global models.
The latest 00Z Medium BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFS…the latest 00Z Deep BAMM is very close to the 18Z GFDL only a little slower.
Bottom line…the models have been rightward biased for the last 3-4 days and I think that continues. So my forecast is close to the UKMET and the official TPC 5pm track package."
I am certainly no expert, but it concerned me when I read that there is a REAL possibility it could end up hitting west of Alabama and do massive devastation to us. Sorry I didn't realize the SNONUT information was from yesterday. Please forgive me.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Queston about the models. What do all the lines on the spaghetti run represent. I don't think there are as many models as lines. Is this over time...are some of them repeated?
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:43 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Forgot link:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:48 PM |
|
Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Here is the latest that I get e-mailed to me:
WTNT34 KNHC 091741
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM AST THU SEP 09 2004
...NOAA HURRICANE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS THAT IVAN CONTINUES
TO BE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...HEADING FOR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE
PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.
AT 2 PM AST...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED BY A
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE
72.0 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA ON
FRIDAY.
IVAN IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 160
MPH...260 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 923 MB...27.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.
REPEATING THE 2 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 72.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 923 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
WWWW
E-Warn is a free public service from the ABC 33/40 Weather Center. To
sign up for other ABC 33/40 E-Warn products, or to unsubscribe, go here:
http://www.jamesspann.com/ewarnmain.html
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:50 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Each line does represent a model forecast track.
Remeber, some of the models (BAM I think) are run off of the GFS. I can't seem to find the link that listed each one by color, but if I do, I'll post it.
BTW, IMHO, the GFS is OTL (out to lunch)
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 05:58 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Wanted to thank, Shawn W., Walter B., and George Z.) for help in mirroring the site. Flhurricane has 4 mirrors at the moment and should be smooth as far as images go. The main site (boards, etc) is still on the central flhurricane server. (Which is the old one)
The new server equipment (which all the donations are going to to pay a portion of -- donations so far cover about half it... thanks all!) won't be avaialbe until next week, in the meantime this arrangement should help.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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This link is from the TPC on the some of the models:
http://www.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:05 PM |
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|
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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if jason gets on later today he has the link because he uses the graphic on the local weather. hopefully he didn't get p od about somebody blasting him last week.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:07 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Thanks, because I seem to have lost mine. Ed, I think the other link provides the important ones though.
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:13 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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My thoughts exactly Storm Hound!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:13 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Hi Mike. I sent you some $$ yesterday via paypal for your site. Keep up the fantastic work.
Anyway, I am in south FL - fort lauderdale, and have reservations to go to Atlanta - does any think that is a safe move???? I have two little girls and am petrified by this one.
Thanks for your advise
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:15 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Thanks for the NHC link, which is more than a little over my head. Is there one that the NHC "owns" and relies on that more heavily, or does it go with the model that has been most effective in predicting recent storms?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:17 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Hey guys. I'm in Cape Coral and I'm starting to get really petrified. I don't know if I should/can leave or not. If you can find hotels they are over $200 per night and who knows if you leave when you can get back in.
What is the likliehood of me NOT getting hit???
Thanks so much!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:19 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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The NHC goes with a blend of the Global models (throwing out the 1-2 that is out of the question) and the GFDL. They will comprimise the difference bettween them. But if the GFDL is out to lunch then they will ingore that 1.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:20 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Martha wait and see until saturday morning. It wont be up near you till Sunday afternoon at the earliest.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:23 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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scott,
seeing as you're the only met on the boards right now, can you make a forecast...at least a 3-day? Thanks.
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:25 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Martha,
I would get prepared by locating the local shelters in your area. Review the Hurricane preparedness list and make sure you have your supplies.
| TinaLee |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:26 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: will miss Jamaica
|
This isn't really wishcasting, but it is the best graphic I have seen with regard to the projected path of Ivan. I think it pretty well sums up the way the residents of Florida feel at this point.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:27 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
|
(This is block copied and not my words, I am not good at this stuff yet, but if I keep reading from you guys, who knows . . . next year I might be able to post something of my own that amounts to a hill of beans)
I found this on abc3340:
1 PM CDT FAST FACTS ON HURRICANE IVAN:
IVAN PLOWING ALONG AS A EXTREMELY POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE
POSITION: Latitude 14.8 N, Longitude 72.0 W
or 360 miles SE of Kingston, Jamaica
MOVEMENT: WNW at 15 MPH (no change)
MAX SUSTAINED WIND: 160 MPH (Category 5) Gusts to 195 MPH (no change)
LOWEST PRESSURE: 923 millibars, 27.26 inches (Pressure has risen slightly)
90% of buildings damaged when it passed over Granada
At least 16 fatalities on Granada
We will update the above data at 4 PM
There is a considerable spread in the suite of computer models; some suggest a motion toward the central Gulf coast, others show Ivan taking a sharp right turn, cutting across south Florida. It is simply too early to determine where the storm is going, but everyone from New Orleans to Charleston will have to pay close attention to Ivan over the next five days.
One model (the GFS) takes Ivan into the Atlantic, and then turns it westward with a threat to places like Delaware and New Jersey in about 9 days. It will be very interesting to watch what happens; the system should remain a dangerous hurricane for the foreseeable future.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:28 PM |
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|
Tina's Attachment
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Now THAT's funny!
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:30 PM |
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Re: Tina's Attachment
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That really is funny. It is good to have a sense of humor in times like this. Laughter is good for the heart, soul and body. Keep the spirits up.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:31 PM |
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Re: Tina's Attachment
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Kimberley Clark did James Spann do that update ? Good to see anouther south AL person posting here.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:32 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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I did a lot of atmospheric chemistry models in graduate school, and I am looking to become an expert on met models too! The nhc page explains the models well, but I really would like a good summary website that has constant updates as the models are run. What site is best to look at the models? I have been using weather underground, namely because it is labelled and tells when the models were last run. I like the spaghetti model site, but it doesn't have a legend. I also look at the NHC forecast maps, but that is their interpretation, so it doesn't interest me as much as the raw data.
If the following post is in reference to my question.... are there any good 'free' sites that show updated model runs with a legend?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:32 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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http://www.wright-weather.com/gfdl.shtml
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:34 PM |
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Re: Tina's Attachment
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Phil, I cant give exact point but will say around Havana moving NNW or N. I wont know landfall till tomorrow at this time for the 3 day forcast. Right now 3 days goes out to Sunday and landfall wont happen till later monday afternoon or night. There is still a outside chance that this will take the GFS path. How about say, Landfall is missing Key Largo by 100 miles to Panama City.,,,,,,hehehe but seriously give me 24 hours to make my 3 day forcast on landfall, I and we have time.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:38 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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Been a while. We unexpectedly lost my mom last Wed. so I didn't pay much attention to anything (including Frances - mom's middle name btw - outside of what they showed on Fox, CNN and The Weather Channel.) I'm glad to see the site is back up and will probably make some kind of small donation in the next few weeks (and certainly encourage anyone who hasn't yet to also do so).
I have to disagree with scottsvb though the pages are still loading too slow to go back and see when he posted it. He mentioned the NHC was basically on track, but Ivan's position is some 200 miles S/SW of where it was supposed to be. For anyone with Accupro access, make sure you read Bastardi's comment and watch his tropical video today. He takes on the GFS/GFDL in favor of the UKMet and Canadian solutions and likes a landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and Apalachacola. The 12z CMC model wants the system near the AL/FL border in the 120-144 hour (5-6 days) time frame. I do agree with Scott that chances are there won't be a Cat-5 hit on the US. But we can't rule out 2, 3 or 4 which seem likely if not inevitable. My call? I think that Ivan landfalls somewhere between Gulfport, MS and Seaside, FL early next week (Tuesday perhaps) as a Cat 2 or 3. All of the above of course assumes that Ivan will pass south of Jamaica and more westerly than what the NHC/GFS alliance is feeding us for now. They have shifted their track farther and farther west since classification and that's likely to continue.
And a special note for rickonboat: Rick, you're not getting a Cat 5, but if you don't see some effects from Ivan, I'll donate $10 to the site in your name.
Finally, I had to laugh at the Michael Moore comment above. Moore tends to follow the smoke moreso than guys like the rock readers (doomsday hurricane predicted for Tampa Bay last blue moon) though his conclusions are sometimes dubious. Nonetheless, it appears our current administration is as guilty of pimping and following conspiracy theories as any
. One day the American public will wake up and stop electing such inept presidents (Bush, Clinton, Reagan, Carter, Nixon, Johnson, etc.) and return to the days of at least guys like Ike and Truman if not ole TR. Yeah I know this part is going to be deleted, but what the hey - it's been a while.Steve
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:39 PM |
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Re: Tina's Attachment
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scott,
you need to get panama city out of your vocab. it don't look good right now but alot can happen in 4 days.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:44 PM |
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Re: Tina's Attachment
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Yes it is his 1pm notes. It is good to see some south Alabama foks on here. I cannot believe the information that this site provides. I just registered yesterday as soon as it came back up. I was having withdrawals, but I was truly praying every time I tried to log on that everyone was ok. IHad questions in my mind like "Is L1 there?" "Is Colleen ok?" "Is Rick still on his boat?" Just kidding about the boat thing, but I was very concerned for all who post here and was and still am praying for you guys.
I will be leaving my wonderful paralegal job here in Mobile shortly to head to the doctor and then the hills of Citronelle. But, first thing tomorrow morning, I will be back on learning again.
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:46 PM |
|
cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
Steve...
I'll take you up on that...whether I feel the effects or not. Heck, I'm feeling the effects right now...!!!!!
Seriously, I'm with you on the more westerly track, though it doesn't mean wishcasting.
Easy to minimize the odds of this maintaining a cat 5...
consider this line of thought...
How much activity has this year already had?
How HOT is the GOM water?
What happens in 4-5 days?>...as far as ridging, etc...???
so a cat 5 anywhere along the coast is quite possible...albeit, if not really probable...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:48 PM |
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Steve
|
So sorry to hear about your mother's passing. My deepest sympathies go out to you and your whole family. Lets hope this thing stays away from NO. You don't need any more stress right now.
And I'm leaving your political commentary up...as a token of good will and sympathy.
Let ED or HF take it down if they so choose.
Again, my deepest sympathies. Hang tough, guy.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:52 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
|
Its ok steve to disagree with my thinking. Sorry to hear about your mom. Hope you guys are doing better.
Anyways I support my tracks 100% and have gotten every storm this year correct (im proud to say) but Earl, last year missed 2 and I think year before that the same. Frances I got from start to finish. I went against Basardi as I do in general as he uses alot of hype in his forcasts and wants to pinpoint targets on his seasonal forcasts. At times though Basardi and I will agree. I would hope more would disagree with me and if they give reasons why they think it will go somewhere else and it does, then i will look over the data i recieved and see where i went wrong. Anyways right now I dont have a landfall area picked yet on Ivan.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
The storm as a cat iv is probable in the eastern GOM...won't maintain cat v too much longer...
I'm with Scott on prediction of land fall The dynamic is very volaitle right now...I'll stick my neck out after the 11:00am on Friday. I have too as we'll need to finish preparing after that.
The ridge is showing signs of lifting out a little, and what I term a convergence boundary is set up in the NE GOM. One thing I think is improbable is any contact with Yucatan...and any thing west of 85 ...I go that far now.
If the pattern now in place were to hold it will hit the Florida west coast pretty much were the 11am runs put it
One thing we all know the next 60 hours are pretty much a lock...near or over Jamaca and between the Cayman's and Cuba....tomorrow that zone of certainty will shift to the NW about 350 miles or so.
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:03 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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any guess on if the size will increase? looks like some of the storms are starting to get farther out from the center.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
Rick,
A question: can you tell me how many times this year your predicted tracks have been correct? Everytime we have a storm, you say WEST. You said it with Charley, and it went EAST. You said NORTH with Frances and she went east, now you're say WEST with Ivan and ........
A Cat V is nothing to play around with...whether it comes your way, my way, or anyone else's way. I've been through 2 hurricanes in less than 3 weeks and a Cat 2 is no fun, I can tell you that right now. I can't even imagine what a Cat 5 would do here or anywhere. I don't even want to THINK about another hurricane hitting Florida right now. I drive around and see pool cages upside down, trees on houses, roofs ripped off sheds, houses, buildings, schools closed, people have no electricity, water or gas. Some just want a cup of coffee. I've dealt with two terrified little boys and I have done everything in my power to make sure they feel safe and secure and loved. Try putting an 8-year old to bed in a closet with a flashlight because you don't know when the storm is coming or where it's going to hit...south of me? north of me? Try wiping away the tears as he asks you if he's going to die from the hurricane. While you're at it, try wiping away the tears from your own face as you try to reassure your kids that they will be safe. Go out and talk to the people that have lost everything they have within a 3 week period, and more than likely will lose more. If that's possible.
There are people here that lurk and don't post that may take your posts seriously. It's not funny anymore, Rick. A very elderly friend of mine lost his wife due to a sudden heart attack 2 weeks ago. The doctor's said it was from the stress of worrying about Charley. So, it is a matter of life and death.
You can tell me where to go (and so can everyone else) for this post, but from where I'm standing, even JOKING about a CAT 5 isn't funny at all. If you want a Cat 5, fly to Jamaica.
The NHC has been 99.9% on with their forecasted paths for the last three or four storms. I hope like heck that this storm turns west, and if you want it, have at it. We can all say it's too early to tell, but from where I'm standing, I see a lot of things that tell me the NHC is pretty darn confident in their track.
You can get mad, the moderators can edit this if they want, but I had to say this because it's really not funny anymore.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:13 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
WELL SAID COLLEEN!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:14 PM |
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Steve
|
You certainly have my sympathies concerning your mom. You are one of my favorite people on this site and I hate to hear of your loss.
I just watched CNN and the lady met on there said that the next 24hrs is very important to what may happen with Ivan. She said that over the past 100 years or so that 80-85% of systems that went south of Jamaica ended up going into the central gulf. Very interesting.
ShawnS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:17 PM |
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Dvoraks
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He's not getting any weaker...
09/1745 UTC 14.7N 71.8W T6.5/7.0 IVAN
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:18 PM |
|
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
|
Quote:
I like the spaghetti model site, but it doesn't have a legend........ .... are there any good 'free' sites that show updated model runs with a legend?
I interested in getting this information too. Anywhere we can look?
Sadie, you can find most of what you are looking for right on this site. Click the storm links or go to the main page article.
| GaryC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:20 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
Hey C, you always have my support.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:22 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
|
Steve, glad to see you back.... sorry about your mom
Going to do my part with a donation to the site as well...
Seems to me a major factor in final landfall will be the strength of the ridge off to the northeast.... water vapor loops show the ridge still building to the SW..... not sure if its going to be strong enough to push this beast as far west as MS/AL line.... not very likely but you never know.... I'll never say a hurricane will definitely not hit somewhere...
posted on storm2K four days ago I was really leaning towards Mobile and 25 miles to the east as a potential landfall area (possible, but not likely now).... thinking today is that I'm to far west.... best guess right now would be from PC to Tampa...... and leaning somewhere in the middle. I don't expect (or at least hope not) a Cat 4 or 5 at landfall, but a strong 3 (and I think shear will be the inhibiting factor for maximizing intensity) is no laughing matter either...... Ivan looks to be dead on with a collision course with Jamaica....
this was a season of all seasons.... unfortunately its still just about half way through......
| rickonboat |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:23 PM |
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naturally, some get offended
|
Colleen...
I have suffered from a cat 3 hurricane, and multiple confrontations with other close calls. It has hit Florida twice, and no one, including me, thinks it's a joke. It's reality. And typing on these pages that a cat 5 is possible is reality..not wishcasting. I am sorry you are suffering, and if it makes you feel better to slam people on these pages, then do it. But lashing out at people that are as concerned as you does no one any good. We all handle adversity and trepidation and fear in different ways. Your way is your way...leave others theirs....
These storms are killers...there is global warming....more people are building on the coast...and on and on...we all knew times like these would come to Florida and the Gulf Coasts...
so here it is....a CAT 5...as i posted...is possible..though not probable...funny...no...reality...yes....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:25 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
|
Good job Colleen. We had 71 mph gusts in Tarpon Springs last Sunday and I couldn't imagine what a Cat 2, 3, 4, or 5 would be like. I pray for a break this time around.
| jaybythebay |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:25 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
|
THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN Thats all I have to say about all this bickering about were landfall is in 4 or 5 days. The people of Jamaica need our prayers now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:29 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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Way to go Colleen! You just expressed what 95% on this board are probably thinking. Im Richisurfs(remember me from last year?) ..a registered user but I lost my passcode. I live in Indialantic and have been up here in the panhandle with family since we had to evacuate. Our house made it thru Frances ok but I'm sooo over these hurricanes this year! i used to love them for the surf but this year they are totally annoying me to say the least! Anyhow, I've been reading this whole season on here and like I said you just expressed what most on here are probably thinking. Well, lets see what happens with Ivan but i will take what the NHC says over anybody as far as where this thing will wind up going. Oh well, I'm heading back home tomorrow..at least the panels are still up!
Hey, Richiesurfs! Welcome back. E-mail mike and he'll give you a temp password so you can log in!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:31 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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If anyone "lost" the account or password email me at mike@flhurricane.com and I'll fix that. If you still can't log in make sure cookies are allowed for the site.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:36 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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Ok, thanks Phil and Mike...I'll do that!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:37 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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Thanks, Gary.
I know that the models and the forecasts and other weather factors play a huge role in where landfall occurs. However, after having gone through 2 hurricanes in less than a month, I've also noticed other things that can clue you into what the "authorities" and "officials" are thinking.
For instance, the evacuation of the Keys. Monroe County Emergency doesn't just issue a mandatory evacuation as a precautionary measure. First of all, it costs a LOT of money. To tell residents that 4 days before the storm *may* even hit them that they have to leave tells a tale of its own. When was the last time ANYONE was evacuated 5-6 days out? When was the last time anyone was evacuated BEFORE watches/warnings went up? We can sit here and say that it's because they have a lot of visitors there, but I can't imagine that they had that many considering the fact that Frances just left us Tuesday morning. I certainly don't think it was done without consulting with the NHC and Tallahassee.
2) I'm a good people watcher. I can spot a liar and a cheat a mile away. I'm looking at the local mets here and their faces alone tell the tale about Ivan. They've told us to keep up our plywood, and people have. Even the guy from Accuweather was on Fox's "On The Record" last night and when asked what advice he'd give to the residents of Florida, he said,
"Don't take the plywood off of your windows, because more than likely you'll just have to put it up again over the weekend. Restock items that you may have used....etc."
Science isn't an exact nature, we all know that by now. Just watch the people around you...the ones who know more than we do...and take the clues from them.
Anyway, just some food for thought.
| mojorox |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:37 PM |
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Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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My hiubby is a family physician and he says he is seeing patients with post traumatic stress syndorme coupled with high anxiety.
I think everyone is on the edge. I know I am. I just wish the thing would come if it is going to and be out of here. The anticipation is making eme crazy. I am cutting a ton of slack with everyone I know due to the circumstances.
Helen in Orlando
| alley |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:41 PM |
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Re: Dvoraks
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T6.5/7.0..........where do I find info on T? I know T shows strength but exactly what does the T stand for? Is there a site showing T1 through T-whatever?
This is my first post. Have been lurking through all of the hurricanes. I live in Oldsmar at the top of Tampa Bay. The storm surge got us w/Frances and we became part of the bay. I think if we're in the cone this Sat., we're just going to pack the RV and leave.
| LI Phil |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:45 PM |
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Re: Dvoraks
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
This gives the Dvorak #s
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html
This gives the rankings for T #s
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
This explains the Dvorak ranking system
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:46 PM |
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Caymans Recovery
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Hey Phil...
I believe that the recovery you witnessed was likely from 2001's Hurricane Michelle which caused severe damage on the north coast of Grand Cayman. I was there just last year and they were still rebuilding from that storm.
--Lou
I was there in 2000. I remember it because we went just after completing a second story addition on my house.
| Tropics Guy |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:46 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Glad to be back on the forum again, been away for awhile. Here in South Fla we are on pins and needles again so soon after Frances. My area (Ft Laud) wasn't hit too hard by Frances just some Hurricane force gusts. Now there's the uncertainity again with Ivan., local mets here are saying that he will slow down his forward speed after Jamaica and before Cuba, and after that there is some uncertainty, even though the models are pointing to a SW Fla hit or up the east GOM. Models will probably flip flop back and forth for awhile before we know the approx location of landfall in Fla, in the meantime i'm getting gas before we run out down here.
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:55 PM |
Re: cat 5 somewhere is still possible....(in the US)
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Great post Colleen. I have taken on the "hobby" of reading between the lines also. Here in Deerfield Bch we were lucky with Frances and I just wish Ivan would go feed the fish somewhere. My heart goes out to all of you. Thank goodness this site is back up. I missed reading the posts.
| alley |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:55 PM |
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Re: Dvoraks
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That was a speedy reply! Thank you so very much for the URLs. I appreciate this forum ...just wish I didn't need it so often.
That's what we're here for! Welcome aboard.
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 07:59 PM |
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What the heck?
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Not even sure that this is the right forum, and the mods are more than welcome to edit this if I'm wrong--but what the heck is that in the GOM to the west of Tampa? Just a big blob (such scientific terminology, I know) of thunderstorms or what?
This hurricane season has me on edge to the point where everything has me suspicious. Weather paranoia, the latest craze.
| Kdubs |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:01 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Well, I just finished updated my mother on the progress of Ivan. She suggests that scientists stop studying the life cycles of earthworms and start trying to find a way to get rid of a hurricane, whether through artificial steering currents, NON-nuclear warheads, pressure inflators, big nets, clowns, whatever will work. A little late for this hurricane season, but it sure would be nice to steer Ivan out into the open waters and let him die.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:09 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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(off-topic & off-color post removed by moderator)
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:09 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Quote:
Well, I just finished updated my mother on the progress of Ivan. She suggests that scientists stop studying the life cycles of earthworms and start trying to find a way to get rid of a hurricane, whether through artificial steering currents, NON-nuclear warheads, pressure inflators, big nets, clowns, whatever will work. A little late for this hurricane season, but it sure would be nice to steer Ivan out into the open waters and let him die.
LOVE IT... YOUR MOM'S A GENIUS!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:10 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Kdubs,
In the late 50s or early 60s, there was, as I seem to remember from the time, some effort to try to seed canes so they would rain themselves out over the ocean. Seems like there was some limited, though very temporary, success. Maybe someone else on the forum has more info.
| LI Phil |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:11 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Before ANYONE posts on you-know-what, check out this FAQ from NHC.
This should answer any questions about altering hurricanes.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:12 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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dyna-who..?
NOT funny (LOL)
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:13 PM |
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Re: Ivan Strong Category 5. TD#10 Forms in Eastern Atlantic
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its scary to ask but could this thing strenghten?
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:14 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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For all folks along the Gulf Coast from New Orleans to the FL Keys....
Quote:
Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 knots. This general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected during
the next 3 days. There high confidence in this portion of the
forecast because the hurricane will be steered by the flow
surrounding a well-established subtropical ridge. All models are highly clustered during this period...bringing the hurricane
between Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Thereafter...the forecast
track becomes highly uncertain.
| CoachH |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:18 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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This is my first post though I've been reading regularly since Charley. I really appreciate all the effort and energy people have spent keeping us informed of the latest. I live in South Polk county, FL and we have been hammered twice in the last few weeks. It's almost like everyone is just in a daze that another strike could be coming. The good news is that we are all prepared but since there are still some without power and the grids are stretched thin, a Category 3 or higher could mean long outages. Until then, we hope for the best but expect the worst. BTW, Would 3 Hurricane center circulations passing through one county in a months time span be some kind of record? :-)
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:20 PM |
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Ivan Intensifying Again?
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Looking at the latest WV and IR loops, I'm noticing that the deep convection is starting to return in a large "doughnut" around the well-defined eye....this is right about the same time as yesterday's intensification run.....
That, coupled with the latest vortex showning a slightly lower pressure than earlier, makes me believe Ivan might be trying to get even stronger this evening.
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:22 PM |
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Re: heart out to all in Florida
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A great site to see the latest model runs is maintained by the Southwest Florida Water Management District. They have the very latest models clearly labeled with a date and time. You can find it at...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:22 PM |
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NWS MIAMI
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LOCAL FORECASTS REFLECT THE OFFICAL IVAN FORECAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START TO DETERIORATE ON SUNDAY WITH GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS MONDAY.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:35 PM |
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Re: NWS MIAMI
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5 discussion....moving somewhat to west and weakening over time:
BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE
OF IVAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS AT
ABOUT 921 MB BUT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 144
KNOTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL INTENSITY CAN BE LOWERED TO 130
KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE
DATA AND NOW CONFIRMED WITH THE PLANE THAT IVAN HAS A DOUBLE
EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE RECENT SLIGHT WEAKENING.
THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 WHILE
MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
BEFORE REACHING CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND
INCREASING SHEAR WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.
IVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT
13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF
THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW
SURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE
HIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE
NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE
UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS
DIVERGE. HOWEVER...MODELS FROM 12Z ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT
THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND IN GENERAL HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT
WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.
THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCY
MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 PLANE CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING IVAN.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/2100Z 15.0N 72.5W 130 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.1N 74.2W 130 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.5N 76.2W 135 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.8N 78.0W 130 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.7N 79.3W 140 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 21.5N 81.5W 140 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 25.0N 83.0W 115 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 28.0N 83.5W 100 KT
| Unregistered User |
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| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:36 PM |
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Re:TWC
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interesting that the TWC forecast path of ivan is much more to the left than nhc.... tue am..... center looks to be due south of panama city florida, almost due west of ft. myers....hmmm..... based on 3:30 show
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:37 PM |
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GULF activity
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Has anyone discussed how the build up of activity in the Gulf might affect Ivan?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:38 PM |
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Re: NWS MIAMI
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Anyone know if (or when) Stacy Stewart will be doing the discussion?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:42 PM |
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Re: South Fla jitters
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Those looking to put storm info on their webpage can use this bit of html script
<script src="http://flhurricane.com/stormlist.html"></script>
Which will show the storm info like it does on the left bar
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:44 PM |
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Re: GULF activity
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Can't believe it will weaken that much. That's good though! But still dangerous.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: NWS MIAMI
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Hopefully, soon. Maybe the next advisory?
When the NWS starts talking about heavy wind and rain in your area...you know. I noticed last night that from Friday to Tuesday, we aren't having any wind at all. That tells me they are waiting waiting waiting........
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:49 PM |
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RAMSDIS
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Awesome imagery found here:
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
Click on the GOES East Visible Floater Loop.
Beautiful, but very very scary...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: GULF activity
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I would have thought that warmer GOM waters would be reason enough for Ivan to strengthen; still, watch for that dreaded cone tomorrow! It's not the time to lower your guard SE Florida!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: NWS MIAMI
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I think he is doing the 5am package this week....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:02 PM |
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Re: GULF activity
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Dr. Steve just said that NHC has it as a Cat5 before making landfall in Cuba. While he was pointing out Cuba, by the way, he was pointing towards the middle, he was pointing and actually using his hands to show how the storm would cross ---right through the smallest part of Cuba....as in, directly south of the Keys...ala Charley. The amazing thing is that he doesn't seem to be biting the "weakening" all that much, and he usually doesn't deviate from what the NHC says. He also looks extremely alarmed, and from watching him for like 60 years now
, he normally doesn't get too animated. That, in itself is alarming.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM |
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SSTs for GOM
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notice the slightly cooler waters in the NE GOM...probably effect of Frances ....
BOC is pretty hot though..
https://128.160.23.54/products/OFA/gsscofa.gif
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: NWS MIAMI
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Quote:
Anyone know if (or when) Stacy Stewart will be doing the discussion?
SS should be on for the 10PM CT advisory, I'll check with my friend at NWS and see if she listened to the NHC conference call.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:03 PM |
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NEW THREAD
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Mike just posted a new thread. All replies should go there!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 09 2004 09:12 PM |
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I cant see that kind of weakening
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First of all, If I could press a button and turn this into a tropical wave, Im sure that I, and everyone else would do that.
That said, I can not honestly see this thing weakening that much over the GOM. If a trough is digging down, maybe, maybe, its possible to shear it, but I cant see that happening alot. And I think the thing about it weakinging alot over Cuba is unlikely, unless it stalls or passes over a wide part of it.
Does anyone know the water temp in the florida straits or a link to the bouys?