| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:29 AM |
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Another day, Another storm
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Going into Friday the 17th a new 2004 storm has joined the ranks of it's fellows.. Karl is now a tropical storm in the Eastern Atlantic. Karl is officially progged to reach Category 2 status, but I'll take a less than brave step on a limb and call for it to be a major hurricane by Monday. Fortunately modeling unanimously recurves it well out to sea.. which would make it the first storm since Danielle back in mid-August to not threaten any major land areas.
Unfortunately the other two active systems.. Ivan and Jeanne, are both still significant threats to the Southeastern United States. Ivan has weakened to a depression as of the last advisory, but is forecast to make a sweeping anticyclonic loop over the interior South during the weekend.. a dire flooding threat exists in many locations from Alabama north and eastward.. but especially to the mountains of North Georgia up to Western Virginia. There will likely be historic flooding in many locations in this area.
Jeanne is still several days away, but forecast modeling has been consistently taking it to the Southeastern U.S. Right now it is still drenching Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, maintaing a fair degree of organization as it traverses the northern coast of the latter... the storm is officially forecast to move northwestward through the Bahamas over the weekend while reintensifying to a hurricane--it's terminal forecast track is aimed at Georgia and South Carolina right now, but that could change. Late in the forecast period Jeanne will likely lose it's northward component due to a strengthening ridge, and hit the coast while traveling mostly westward. We'll know more this weekend when the results of Jeanne's current interaction with land and the forecast weakening of the ridge due to Ivan are apparent. Jeanne is a small storm that has the ability to rapidly deepen, if conditions warrant.. the current forecast intensity is probably on the conservative side.
The U.S. has been under hurricane threat for much of the last three weeks.. and has already taken two major hits and two category two impacts so far this year (along with a pair of tropical storms and a weakening T.D. Hermine). The Atlantic right now shows no sign of halting the parade of new systems. But a light may be shining for early October.. the quiet MJO phase in the Western Pacific will make it to our side of the world around then.
Until then, stay aware.
HF
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:40 AM |
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Repost from other thread
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Whoops -- got caught posting these thoughts in the midst of the new thread opening up, so I'll quickly repost here.
Turning in for the night here as well, thankfully with power. Came home to a nice surprise earlier in that the power was restored a full day before they expected it, which is always good. The ice in the freezer and fridge didn't even have time to melt, but I'm certainly glad I had the materials and losses were avoided. I can only hope and pray that everyone to the west made it out alright and that this is the last storm we'll have to deal with as a community this year. Unfortunately, Jeanne may have other designs on that, but this is just getting ridiculous...and we've only gone 6 weeks into the season.
Ivan certainly served up some humble pie on my end and will be a learning experience for all of the forecasters and models involved. Whether the models were too far right and needed to shift left early in its life or too far left and needed to shift right late in its life, the overall errors with this storm are going to be rather large...even in intensity. The NHC did the best they could and proved once again why they are the experts, pinning down a large location that could be affected by the storm with enough time to get prepared as well as pinpointing a region that might come under the gun -- the Mobile/Pensacola area -- a couple of days in advance. They and all other forecasters will always be limited by the data we have available, whether that is in the form of models, observations, or something else entirely, but things are gradually improving. This storm humbled many a forecaster and proved how two competent, respected forecasters can come up with entirely different scenarios as to what will happen and have both come within a fraction of being right...yet both end up wrong.
Best of luck to everyone in the path of this beast, and take care all.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:46 AM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Anyone have an idea how we could track the HIRT-1 truck. Since they seem to know hours in advance of where the eye will make landfall. I know they have the website, but are there any other links to track them on?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:35 AM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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To anyone that may have wondered, I am fine, a great story to tell soon!
Coop
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:42 AM |
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Andrew's Daughter Jeanne????
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Well this evening Jeanne still looks quite impressive for a tropical storm. Shes been interacting with Hispaniola and should move offshore of Haiti during the day on Friday. She should continue on forcast up to near Abaco island or just east of there. This is still where the thinking diverges. Last night and even earlier today I agreed with the models but I didnt want to take it into GA or SC early next week, but I favored slightly that it goes where JB said and thru the keys and into the Central Gulf. Looking at the pattern now and the strong ridge forcasting to form up over the NE into the Mid Atlantic and overall model agreement,, Im now switching over to the solution more so of Jeanne moving almost due north to about 28-29N and 75-77W by Monday evening with her slowing down. Now here is what I feel would happen with this second scenerio,, I think its going to do like what Andrew did but 200 miles up the coast. A turn to the w or even wsw after a jog to the sw will take her W or even WSW making landfall as a Cat 3 between 27N and 28.5N ( A big range since its right now 5-6 days out). A path across the state and entering the gulf and continuing a west path. This is in agreement with the GFS and we all know how outlined these models will be, but that is what I really do see what might happen. Im not throwing out yet the straight shot into the keys by Sunday night if the weakness is pulled further west then forcasted with a movement up near FT Myers or Sarasota before turning more W due to the Ridge coming down to the mid atlantic.
The thing is folks,,the ridge will come down and we are pretty sure it will be pretty strong with a very strong trough over the Rockies and Plains. So there is a 80% chance this is going to HIT the U.S. The Models say GA or SC or even NC right now, but I dont see that happening as they are too fast with her. There is a outside chance she could go into extreme se GA near Jackle Island but that is the farthest N that I could even think and that would be due to it getting up to 31N before the turn. I dont see any reason why this wont be near 140mph at landfall somewhere on the Florida coast. If it does the other solution into the keys and up to Ft Myers then a strong cat 2.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:45 AM |
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Hope Everyone's Okay!
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I watched the hurricane as it made landfall last night, and all I could think of were those of you who were in it's path. I'm sure that it was extremely difficult to get through it...but knowing that so many of my friends here were getting hit, it was extremely difficult to watch.
I hope everyone is okay...you were all in my thoughts and prayers last night and will continue to be.
Also...didn't want you to think that since I didn't post for the last 2 days didn't mean I didn't care....I did. I just didn't want to clutter up the board and prevent those of you who were looking for info from getting it due to bandwidth problems. Believe me when I say that I was thinking of you all night long.
Will post more tomorrow..hope all of you and your families are okay.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:00 AM |
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Re: Andrew's Daughter Jeanne????
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I don't think that the models have had a good grasp on just how strong that H is north of Florida, which allowed Frances to hit near the Melbourne area, even though the models insisted (most of them anyway) that it would skirt the coast of Eastern Florida and make landfall near GA/SC. I remember that the models were all showing an over-rated weakness with that H, and I don't think it's moved much.
The other thing that worries me is how the SHIPS has consistently underdone the intensity of these storms. Charley, Frances...Ivan. Notice how the newest forecast track shows it as a Cat 2 at landfall at 11pm when it was at a Cat 1 at 5:00pm. The other problem we face is that even though the waters are still pretty warm around NC/SC, the waters are even warmer near Florida, especially in the Gulfstream. I still believe that Frances was a Cat3 (minimum) at landfall, but what was the point at changing it 45 minutes before landfall? I could be wrong. I do know this: Charley ballooned in a matter of hours and went from a Cat 2 to a strong Cat 4 almost 3 hours before landfall. Notice, I did say the models, not the NHC.
Time will tell.
Is it December 1st yet?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:26 AM |
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Re: Andrew's Daughter Jeanne????
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Frances didnt hit near Melbourne it was WestPalm beach area..Actually Martin County about 80 miles south of Melbourne.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:24 AM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Here is a picture of why Florida is under the gun once again with Jeanne. It explains a lot.
MaryAnn JEANNE
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:24 AM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Right now Jeanne is struggling. Will she survive. Probably. If she doesn't, Florida will be spared another potentially damaging hurricane, for I believe if she manages to come thru the island intact, she will strengthen to a Cat II or III. She will more than likely survive if she drifts more NW'erly, and as HF said, she will strengthen more than guidance shows. Everyone from the Keys to the Carolinas really needs to pay attention and ignore the mets that are saying she will diminish over the island, or recurve ou to sea. That ain't gonna happen since she bought time down in Hispaniola. This will give the ridge more time to build in, and the timeline is critical. Cheers!!
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:02 PM |
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NHC track shift
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The NHC has shifted their track this morning, now looks more of a Florida threat as indicated by Joe B a couple of days ago. Both tracks however assume the tropical cyclone survives the terrain of Hispaniola and the NHC discussion says that not many tropical cyclones do, so we will see.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:08 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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The remmants of Ivan moved very far north, not as anticapated, this gives more of a reason to believe that JB is correct. Since Jeanne is moving so slow, Ivan's not going to be around to create a weakness in that ridge also the NOGAPs showed this yesterday and that is the model I will be watching. It had the remmants of Ivan crossing over the Mid-Atlantic states and into the ocean because the ridge was digging down from a SE direction. Jeanne will continue her WNW direction for about 2 days and then start to move westward, I partially agree with the NHC but I think they have made Jeanne moving to fas. Those are the basic dynamics, and anyone in the Florida Peninsula should be aware of her.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:27 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Keith, the NHC and most models so far, have Jeanne moving NW or NNW for a time, not WNW then W.
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/WTNT41.KNHC
That turn is due to Ivan maintaing a midlevel circulation over the S.E states, which is also forecast by the models. I stated 2 or more days ago that the models were indicating Ivan would be picked up by a trough in the east, and that has accounted for
Quote:So yes, the models did pick up on this, and the GFS was the first one that did so. The first clue was that it picked up some speed on its approach to the coast.
The remmants of Ivan moved very far north, not as anticapated.
Anyone forecasting this needs to be careful about saying "Florida will be hit in 5 days". The scenario could unfold in a complex way that causes more than just 1 shift in movement. The wildcard in this is a strong trough moving across the west on Jeanne's approach, and the effect it has on the high pressure aloft off the coast. IF it pushes the high offshore, you could see the storm move NW or NNW, then W, or even WSW, then turn back towards the N.
I am not willing to be a maverick for the sake of ego and say where this is going to hit (a shot at Accuweather). In general, I think the threat area is from Florida to Hatteras.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:36 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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As a note of interest. Even if Jeanne comes out of Hispaniola as a huge depression or a minimum tropical storm and doesn't reorganize very fast, she will still be a huge rain event for an already soggy state of Florida.
My thoughts are that Jeanne will rebuild to hurricane status as she enters the warm waters of the Southern Bahama's.
Is Ivan moving further North than was anticipated. I wonder if Ivan will still hang around the Carolina's as forecast?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:38 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Sorry about the direction, the WNW NW all look the same to me when I'm tired I sometimes read backwards. I saw the GFS yesterday and it was mediocore, I'm not to fond of it as I have followed it and it has left me with the totally opposite forecast, that's why I picked the NOGAPS. The GFDL has the storm riding up the coast of Florida and making landfall in Gerogia, to SC just to note and most other models have that happening too. The storm is so small and can be affected by many things rather fast, I almost gave up on tracking the storm yesterday, to many movements involved. I think we should let this one for the experts.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:40 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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What a difference a few hours makes. I go to bed feeling relatively ok about Jeanne's forecast track, and wake up to see it might be making landfall just north of me. Truth be told, growing up in Florida I never get complacent about these things no matter how far away they're forecast to be...lol.
Anyway, just a few quick observations as I haven't had too much time to check models, etc. Right now Jeanne looks to be pretty stationary over Hispaniola. She seems to have almost hit a wall and stopped all forward movement. Whether she can get unstuck isn't exactly a sure thing in my mind. Also, most of the models have had a hard time factoring strength and time/placement of the ridges and troughs into their extended forecasts. I realize that anything past 3 days has diminished accuracy, and one can see the problems the models had with Ivan with regard to the ridges and trough to its north. That's why the forecast track kept shifting further and further west. Obviously every storm is different, but I have noticed the difficulties with which the models have predicted the troughs and ridges and that seems to be a constant(remember Mr. Stewart even gave us some insight on that).
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:47 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Thanks Clark... it makes sense now. For some strange reason, I thought the highs and lows would extend up through the troposphere. I know better than this, as the outflow from a low would have to affect the layers above, as if the air went to the center of a low, without having an outflow, then the low would die. I guess the same is true with a high... if the winds continued to blow outward without replacement, the high would go away. So, the different altitudes cannot be all uniform. Sometimes, my mouth (or, in this case, my hands) think without consulting with my brain!
One more question for you.... a lot of these people that have meteorologist after their name, but spend their time doing field reporting.... are they real meteorologists? My thought is perhaps some Universities have 'broadcast meteorology' programs, where you take mostly communications courses and a couple met classes and voila, you are a BA level meterorologist. I am not trying to insult anyone here, just many of the people I have seen on TV have disappointed me with their technical abilities, as they mostly just repeated someone else's forecasts. Then look at 'chief meteorologists' or NWS forecasters that do actual forecasting. I'm guessing have a more science-based met degree (B.S., M.S., or Ph.D.) and therefore, know what's going on. The short version of my question is do all meteorologists (those in-the-field or at-the-desk for TWC versus those that actually forecast) follow the same educational pathway?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:47 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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If Jeanne gets ripped apart, it will be steered by the lower level flow, but it seems like this year land doesn't matter as much. I think it was Gaston this year that actually started to reorganize while over Va.
Systems like this are the most difficult to forecast because their intensity is dependent on a track that isn't well-established yet, with weak steering currents, and sparse data. That's why I have been taking Accuweather to task. In the end, they may be right, but I just don't understand the need to be a hero. The line between hero in goat is a fine one. The way in my opinion, the Hatteras solution comes into play, is if we have an evolution similar to Isabel last year.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20030918.html
The link above shows the 500 mb pattern on Isabel's approach, and as per my post last night, yes, it is in a different location, but in both cases, there was troughing in the Plains moving eastward, and a high aloft offshore, and a strong surface high over N.E. In Jeanne's case, the hi offshore is actually at least partially onshore, but any shift eastward of this feature would allow Jeanne to threaten higher up on the coast. Not saying this will happen, but this is a scenario that has to be watched. Ironically, the longer Jeanne sits out there, I think the better the chances of that happening are, as eventually, that trof will reach the coast.
Hey, I'll take this one if it spares Fla.
Also, this is far from a perfect analog, so maybe I should just wait and see how it plays out. I am just thinking out loud.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:53 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Some years some models do better than other years. I almost stopped looking at the NOGAPS because for a while, it didn't do well, and the GFS had the upper hand. This year, the GFS has had a tougher time, but I still have to give it props for picking up Ivan's interaction with the trof in the east.
I can give you another real-life example about picking models.....
In 1996 (I think that was the snowy one) I said that "If it begins with an "E", it's good enough for me". The ECMWF and ETA did very well with the winter storms that year. So well, in fact, that the ETA was the only model predicting sig. snow for my area, I went with it based on an H2O image that told me the other models were out to lunch, and it verified very well. Got 7" on that one when 1" was the original prediction.
Some models handle PNA patterns better, or La Nina situations better.
El Nino is a whole different story because there is an extra jet that has to be accounted for in the forecasts, and increases difficulty.
That is a long-winded way of saying, don't get locked into one model. Some years, they do better than others.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 12:56 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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The NOGAPS takes the storm into Georgia, not South Florida
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:01 PM |
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Jeanne: another Debby?
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Jeanne over Hispaniola
Debby over Hispaniola
Jeanne is now being sheared and the satellite appearance is rather poor due to that and interaction with land, similar to Debby in 2000; Jeanne's LLC is also exposed and the system's overall satellite appearance is very similar to Debby; both systems were forecast to regain hurricane intensity; and both systems were forecast to move north as they continued westward
leave the visible image open and click this to compare the two and see on WV where the center is
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:04 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Thanks for the insight. Right now I believe the PNA is postive so that could be a reason for the bad GFS. Talk about snow can't wait for it and some nor'easters to get us trapped in our houses (just kidding). This year I'm going to start tracking winter storms, so I'll be looking at the models really haven't had that much experince tracking these storms but you obviously have. See ya by da Jersey Shores, as I would say it.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:07 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Where did I say south Florida in that previous post?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:07 PM |
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Re: Jeanne: another Debby?
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Debby and Jeanne is a poor comparison. Debby was affected by strong low level easterlies that were driving her WSW. This is NOT the case with Jeanne. That said there is a less than even chance that she will not survive the island and the westerly shear that IS present. I was surprised that the NHC kept her winds as high as they did, as convection is poor at the moment. Again, if she survives and moves WNW she will be trouble. The next 24 hours will tell the tale. Cheers!!
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:09 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Yesterday's Accuweather forecast showed SFL
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:16 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I guess I should have made it more clear, I partially agree with JB on his overall track but not his landfall location. I think that is to early to tell but I said eveyone in the Florida Peninusla needs to be aware because they might see the NHC forecast and not think it's hitting them; not everyone avidly tracks these storms. We'll know better in another two days or so when it's away from hispanola, I think it will survive. Mr. Spock watch out for the rain today, looks like were in for some rain bring the umbrella.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:39 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I'd be thrilled to take some of that rain from the areas that have had problems.....I think I heard there were 2 flooding deaths in N.C. It would have been that much worse had it not been moving.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:51 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I agree with you that there will be an impact somewhere in the SE with the threat greatest between Jupiter inlet - Florida and South Carolina. That will depend on the timing when the high causes Jeanne to start her westard track.
Perhaps JB and/or Accuweather wasn't that far off afterall.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:53 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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One thing should also be noted, Accuweathers forecast path is not nessecarily what JB is saying. They even have their own little disagreements internally. If you listen to what JB is thinking, he thinks it could go through the Florida Straights into the Gulf. Accuweathers track is traversing central Florida. Only a little south of what NHC does now. Accuweather is putting out a seven day track for some reason though.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:54 PM |
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West Gulf?
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Everything I'm seeing has Jeanne somewhere taking a more westerly track. If she ends up in the gulf, are we actually talking about her possibly making it all the way to Texas? I guess this question is a liitle far fetched but the models are not going out that far so I have to ask.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 01:57 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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coming to the board for some insight here,i have given up on my local met as of this morning.now i know a 5 day is by no means accurate,but this one has me nervous especially in light of what the local met is saying,on the 6 am news he shows the track,puts his hand in the middel of the cone which looked to be arond Daytona and says anything north of this will not happen,which ok fine he put jax out of a direct hit but also puts us once again on the "bad" side of the storm.how at 5 days out can he be so sure of whats not going to happen? what are yalls thoughts on how far north this thing could possibly go,i do realize its hard to say but any insight would be great.FL does not need another hit and my concerns for jax taking a hit grow with each new storm,its almost as these past storms have been "practice" for us up here.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:00 PM |
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Re: West Gulf?
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I don't think Texas is a viable option due to the trof that will be traversing the country. The only exception would be if Jeanne disintegrated into an open wave and that's how the low-level flow was going.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:02 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I dont see it going to TX shawn, infact the chances are slim that TX gets anything this year. By weds-Thurs a very strong trough in the Rockes and Plains moves SE and will pick up Jeanne, wherever she is in the gulf. Farthest west she can go is central La. That is 7 days out.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:04 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Thanks, that is what I wanted to hear!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:06 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I heard that Ivan was looping back and would keep Jeanne from going too far north, opening the possibility for a landfall around St. Augustine, kind of like Dora in 1964.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:09 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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from the stories ive heard Dora did a number on the this area,anyone know what cat she was
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:09 PM |
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Jeanne looking pretty ragged right now
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My fIrst look at Jeanne, not to impressive on the GOES vis sat loop, not sure if I can even find the center on the last frame.... appeared to be an LLC just moving off the island to the north prior to the last frame but it kinda just dissapeared on the last loop,,, hmmmm... and this was in the specific location of the last NHC advisory position for the center... if so, all the convection is on the east side of the storm... the big island is playing havoc on the storm right now and if its going to survive it better get back to the water quick....
also think this system has a very good chance of another Florida landfall... the bermuda ridge will again be the factor for this scenario, the ridge has been the player of the year for sure, and I think will it do it again to Florida... stay tuned... I don't think Ivan will cause enough weakness in the ridge to cause Jeanne to go up the east coast...if she survives she will likely impact Florida....
I'm two for two on my Frances and Ivan long term forecasts of 10 days out and really nailed em good... .. . I'm long overdue for a healthy buffet of crow at any time, can't let LIPhil eat all the crow, I'm sure he's ready to eat some steak about now... at least crow is probably low fat and probably good for ya... I hope for Florida's sake that this time I'm the crow eater... not willing to forecast a GOM event yet... best guess on that is 50/50....way to early..
need to start doing a little model research to fine tune things...
on a side note: got some excellent recommendations and input on my request for information on generators, thanks to all for your assistance...
Frank P..
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:11 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Dora was a Cat III--115 mph
| mojorox |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:16 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Storm Coop(in my mind you are called Big Dawg cause of your avatar), I'm glad you are ok. I am waiting with interest for your story!
Helen
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:17 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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CABLE NEWS RACE
WED., SEPT 15, 2004
WEATHER CH 3,500,000 [VIEWERS]
FOXNEWS O'REILLY 3,200,000
FOXNEWS HANNITY/COLMES 2,800,000
FOXNEWS GRETA 2,300,000
FOXNEWS SHEP SMITH 2,200,000
CNN LARRY KING 1,400,000
CNN AARON BROWN 1,100,000
MSNBC HARDBALL 685,000
CNN PAULA ZAHN 643,000
MSNBC OLBERMANN 570,000
MSNBC SCARBOROUGH 518,000
CNN COOPER 359,000
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:19 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Well right now that seems like a likely landfall point, I think everyone someone should abbrevate this, keep an eye on this and don't turn your back on this storm.
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:19 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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no wonder she wrecked the place,ive heard some horor stories on what she did to my neighborhood,not sitting in too good a place here,about 10 miles from the coast but also in the middle of the St.Johns and Trout rivers if my memory sevres me were a cat 3 evac zone. hoping Jeanne dies out,gets a very doubtful push out to sea,or does no further intensifying.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:22 PM |
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Dora
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it is interesting to note that since 1851, Dora was the only major hurricane to hit northeast Florida from the Atlantic, and the only hurricane to hit northeast Florida in an east to west direction
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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scary thought,i know i wont be turning my back.thinking maybe i should have kept my mouth shut to my sister,shes coming in from NJ tonight and i told her well u pushed Ivan away but looks like your bringing Jeanne in,i think i might have spoke too soon on that one
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Jeanne looking pretty ragged right now
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Sure does look like it's stationary.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:27 PM |
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Ivan Storm Surge?
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Looking at the continuous TV coverage coming out of Mobile this morning,Gulf Shores,Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola, the devastation of these areas really bring back memories of Camille...
even Camille didn't do that kind of damages to bridges.... someone posted earlier that they thought Ivan had a Cat 5 surge... the damage I've seen certainly supports that analogy... 130-140 mph winds do not cause that kind of damage I've seen on TV, that was from a tremendous surge... anyone know what the actual surge was??
It had to be at least 15-20 feet, and add the height of the waves on top, this must have been incredible and very close to the heights generated by Camille...
one difference between the two areas, our waves in the MS sound don't get nearly as high because the sound is so shallow, and we are protected by the barrier islands (Horn, Ship and Cat islands, quite beautiful I might add)... Gulf Shores, Pen, Orange Beach.... these areas ARE the barrier islands.... and have NO protection ..
| luki |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Dora
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was not aware of that,guess all the hype about being way overdue for a hit up here have some real value to it
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Have to correct you on that. Dora was only a Cat 2 at landfall on the NE Florida coast[granted high Cat 2]. There has not been a "recorded" Cat 3 landfall in this area.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I noticed that too Rabbit, seems the First Coast is the safest place in the state in terms of hurricanes... That area lies right in between the usual storm tracks, either west through the Straits or South Florida, or curving north to the Carolinas. Certainly can't count yourselves out though :-/
| darthaggie |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:30 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Quote:
One more question for you.... a lot of these people that have meteorologist after their name, but spend their time doing field reporting.... are they real meteorologists?
Well, I've heard that TWC's Stephanie Abrams graduated from FSU's meteorology department, and that Kristina Abernathy is an ex-USAF meteorologist. I'd guess, just from a marketing point-of-view, that most of TWC's on-camera people are meteorologists of some stripe.
As for your journey into meteorology, well, it's never too late. It depends, I guess, on how long ago you last saw really gnarly mathematics. Personally, I'd need to go back and take a refresher course(s) in calculus. And I might actually learn something about calculus!!!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:33 PM |
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The storm that won't go away.....
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Conventional wisdom a few days ago was to keep the storm stuck over the southern App. GFS was the first to say it would get picked up. Now, the new ETA has the remnants of Ivan emerging off the Va./NC coast.......IF that were to happen, that could change things with Jeanne. Again, not saying it will, but it is an interesting output.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/images/eta_slp_036m.gif
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:36 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Did anyone see the East Pacific lately, that storm is recurving to Baja California. That trough must be something, most storms don't recurve like that, the models were sending it out to sea, except the GFS it recurved it. Anyway this trough will play a big role in determining the track of Jeanne. If and only if Jeanne gets into the GOM then the panhandle would have to watch out, this could be a similiar storm to Betsy. If the storm doen't get into the GOM then it will get sucked up by that trough and cause another rain storm along the coast. Let's see how it pan's out but as soon as I see that ridge building over top, then it's hitting Florida.
Karl looks impressive, though it might not hit the United States because of that TUTT, it's clearly visible on sat imagery. Prob the first major cane not going to impact the USA, amazing. Anyway, the models are also predicting another tropical system to form; the son of Karl, Lisa. Is this parade ever going to stop, it's like were being assualted by the tropics!
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:40 PM |
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Models Getting some press
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Article on CNN.Com about models http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/internet/09/16/hurricane.supercomputers.ap/index.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:45 PM |
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What the ...
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11:00 NHC 5-day
Guess they don't think this is cutting across S FL!
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:49 PM |
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Great Link
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You probably already have it:
http://www.pensacolanewsjournal.com/news/guides/hurricane/galleries.shtml
The photo gallery is just incredible!!!
These poor folks got hammard
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:52 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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That is the most strange projeted track for a hurriane that I have ever seen?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 02:59 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: What the ...
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See attachment.
NHC and accuwx tracks are now somewhat similar, though accuwx is WAY faster with her.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:01 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:
That is the most strange projeted track for a hurriane that I have ever seen?
I'm beginning to chuckle at each new discussion by the NHC as it relates to their forecast path.
I used to plot them out on a seperate map but I'm tired of changing them every six hours.
I will tell you this, You'll really have to convince me it will come into the Jacksonville, Fla area from the East.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Wanna bet it shifts? How many times did Frances and Ivan shift... heck at one time the NHC was leaning towards Ivan crossing over Florida thru the Punta Gorda area and up the east coast.... and had Frances going up the east coast as well... yeah, it'll shift, I can guarantee it.... who wants to bet right now this is where Jeanne is going? any takers out there? I think not because the people who come here to this site are smart, and know the track record of the models... go look at the last tropical model runs... they are all over the place... the NHC has to put out a 5 day... I would not put any stock in this one at the moment....
Jeanne will have to be monitored very closely as I don't think the models have a clue as of yet.... but I'll say this, I think Florida will get another one.... and if it does get into the GOM, the panhandle might be under the gun again.... or perhaps even a little more west of there.... still waaay to early and I'm just prematurely speculating at the moment...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:07 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:
Wanna bet it shifts? How many times did Frances and Ivan shift... heck at one time the NHC was leaning towards Ivan crossing over Florida thru the Punta Gorda area and up the east coast.... and had Frances going up the east coast as well... yeah, it'll shift, I can guarantee it.... who wants to bet right now this is where Jeanne is going? any takers out there? I think not because the people who come here to this site are smart, and know the track record of the models... go look at the last tropical model runs... they are all over the place... the NHC has to put out a 5 day... I would not put any stock in this one at the moment....
Jeanne will have to be monitored very closely as I don't think the models have a clue as of yet.... but I'll say this, I think Florida will get another one.... and if it does get into the GOM, the panhandle might be under the gun again.... or perhaps even a little more west of there.... still waaay to early and I'm just prematurely speculating at the moment...
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
| AugustaDawg |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:08 PM |
Re: What the ...
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First post here from a newbie. I have been reading this forum for several weeks and have really been been impressed with the quality of the content.
With apologies to all, my first post is a bit personal. I am supposed to take my family to Disney World tomorrow for eight days. I haven't been concerned with Jeanne until this morning, but now I am.
What is the educated opinion of those here on whether or not to make the trip? I believe that this site is the most likely on the web to give me an expert opinion.
Thanks to all in advance.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:12 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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As I see it Jx would be within the dreaded cone. That means ' Jx'ville is not out of the woods.'
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:13 PM |
Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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Frank if im right last year when isabell came in she was cat 1 but because she was cat 5 and 4 for so long she brought surge of cat 4. This was big problem in baltimore where the water went 2 blocks into inner harbour and piled all the boats up. Never really thought about surge staying up when storm weakens.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:16 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I'm still not convinced that this storm will make it out of Hispaniola in one piece. It hasn't gotten any better looking since I first checked it this AM. In fact I see where the center of circulation should be, and all the convection that was surrounding the eye seems to be blowing back towards the west. Jeanne is definitely taking a beating over the mountains there, and this will affect her forecasted path. That is, if she even stays together.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:16 PM |
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Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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Isabel made landfall as a CAT II, but dropped to a I fairly soon thereafter:
Isabel
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:23 PM |
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Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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Rob, good point, that's what I was thinking, that once a storm reaches say a strong Cat 4 or 5 rating, the momentium of the system does not let the surge wind down as fast as the wind does... I always assumed the surge will be equal to the wind speed, and Ivan proved this NOT to be the case... something I'll consider regarding my evacuation plans for the next one that comes my way...
AugustDawn.... Regardling Watl Disney World.... I cancelled my trip which was scheduled for next Friday, only because I was concerned of the impact from Ivan... seeing the devistation along the I-10 corridor in the panhandle I'm glad I did, will reschedule for early next year... however, if one can get to WDW without using I-10, I see no reason why you shouldn't go... hmmmm, except for Jeanne perhaps....
Storm chaser..... nice guesscast.... I might be leaning a little more to the south at the moment, still to early for me to call yet....
| kelcot |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Storm, what part of PCB are you in?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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Quote:Actually, Camille did knock out a modern bridge over the back bay of Biloxi. The center span at the highest point on the bridge, a modern concrete bridge, was lifted out of position, rotated about 45 degrees and set back down into the opening. A pedestrian might have been able to climb carefully onto the resultant skewed section but it was so precarious that if he strayed from the center of balance, both he and the center span would have gone down into the water. It was considerable time before that bridge, the only one on US-90 across the back bay was repaired. The old, rickety wooden bridge that had been decommissioned a few years earlier, survived as it was completely covered by storm surge and covered during the highest wind and wave action....unfortunately, they had removed the center section when the new bridge was built and the two ends left in place as 'fishing piers'.
Looking at the continuous TV coverage coming out of Mobile this morning,Gulf Shores,Orange Beach, Perdido, Pensacola, the devastation of these areas really bring back memories of Camille...
even Camille didn't do that kind of damages to bridges.... someone posted earlier that they thought Ivan had a Cat 5 surge... the damage I've seen certainly supports that analogy... 130-140 mph winds do not cause that kind of damage I've seen on TV, that was from a tremendous surge... anyone know what the actual surge was??
The damage very much reminds me of CAT-V storm surge and wave damage like that of Camille. Ivan probably was still carrying water and waves from when shortly before he had been CAT-V for quite some time. That much energy doesn't dissapate quickly even if the winds died down some before landfall. Energy stored in the greater mass of water won't change as fast as in the lower density mass of air.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:29 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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AgentB. I agree with you. Organized circulation has all but ceased, and outflows are radial rather than rotational now. It appears to be struggling to maintain it's integrity...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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NHC is way too agressive with Jeanne right now on her wind speed. I dont see anything more the 50mph and that should be more realistic. Quickpast Sat and limited surface obs dont show more then 44mph.For her to survive she must now start that nw turn over the next 2-3 hours cause by 6 hours she will lose her w wind.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:31 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
Why are you picking on the Canaveral National Seashore and New Smyrna Beach?
Sure, that would leave me on the "good" side, but still too close.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:35 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Phil,
I hope you won't mind my enclosed repost to Jason Kelly...I just got back online and didn't really realize the last thread had closed but I would like Jason to know he's appreciated....
Repost:
Quote:Jason,
Take this ...
and multiply it by 10 more hours, and that is what happened in our area yesterday (yes, that is my voice narrating everything)...
Living in Orlando as I do, I have never seen you 'in action' on TV, but I have read your posts and HIGHLY respect your opinion. I'm sorry that you and your neighbors had to endure Ivan and its effects and I am truly pleased to see that you personally, and I hope all of your family and neighbors came through this relatively intact and uninjured. Having just gone through two similar experiences here (magnified by living in a trailer) and having to evacuate twice and prepare for a third (and possibly a fourth), we share common experiences that will bind us even closer together in the future. I give thanks that you are OK and when you rest up and recover from the trauma, that you will stop by this forum often and continue to contribute your knowledge and opinions.
I am sure that the other members of this site and many of its' visitors will feel much the same as I do when I say: Thanks and we're grateful you were spared to remain our friend.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:35 PM |
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My Little Story
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I see Frank P on so I know he is OK.... Hope Droop & A1T and everyone else are OK also. I will keep this short... Panama City's big deal were the tornados. I will also add that anyone who could watch or listen to Jason K, you probably have a new level of respect for him... I do. I was here on the PC when JK caught the first tornado on the ground with the tower cam ( tv on beside me), I did my spotter duty and clicked my report to Tally, then JK advises of another tornado looking at Panama City. I got my wife to the safe room then I grabbed the camera. I have seen a few tornados and a number of canes but this was a little scary for me. From there on we had several people loose their lives during this event. In the end we became a "mini shelter", we dished out what we had and I cooked on the grill for everyone.... anyway we did pretty good! Points west got pounded hard. One of my family is the police chief of Gulf Shores, Al.... not the best place to be in a Cat 4. Well, looks to be a couple more out there
Coop
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:35 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:Quote:
I say between Brevard and Daytona, that is my guess
Why are you picking on the Canaveral National Seashore and New Smyrna Beach?
Not picking, just my guess. I do not wishcast, but I like to stay alert. I am still learning about the high pressures and so forth with these last storms, so don't count my guess, still learning.
Sure, that would leave me on the "good" side, but still too close.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:35 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Jeanne is dying over the DR...will she make it across? That is the question at hand. We are all talking about the various model solutions 4-5 days out...and she has not made it across the Island of Hurricane Death.
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:39 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:
I am supposed to take my family to Disney World tomorrow for eight days. I haven't been concerned with Jeanne until this morning, but now I am.
What is the educated opinion of those here on whether or not to make the trip?
I believe your greatest risk would be spending a day indoors.
Your schedule should bypass any problems with flight plans.
| darthaggie |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:39 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Quote:
Quickpast Sat and limited surface obs dont show more then 44mph.
Hmmm? did you read the 11AM EDT 17 Sep 2004 discussion?
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS RAIN-FLAGGED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT
OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 55 KT.
Now, granted, they're rain-flagged, but still...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:39 PM |
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Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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I agree with you but would like to add this point... Camille did not cause any section of the bridge over Biloxi Bay to totally collapse, like what occurred from Ivan... I only lived about a mile from this bridge at the time so I saw it first hand... Camille rearranged about a quarter mile of the segments of the BIloxi Bridge on the Biloxi side of the bridge... but NONE of the sections were totally distroyed or missing like in Florida, maybe this bridge was built better than the Florida one, it certainly was newer at the time.. ... yeah, it took a long time to repair but I think they just realigned the bridge segments, they did not have to rebuild it, like they will have to do in Florida... wind does not do that type of damage... that's storm surge... and it was pretty bad with Ivan...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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I agree Justin... she still looks very ragged on the vis loops and quite disorganized... she might not survive her island visit.... hard for me to discern any movement at the moment either...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:51 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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If she redevelops, and that is a big if. My guess is that Jeanne is gonna go south and visit the keys before hitting the northren gulf coast.
I think the models are a bit confused right now.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:52 PM |
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Ho hum
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Is it just me or is each succeeding storm becoming more and more frustrating to predict? Jeanne seems to be holding her own, but barely, but she has also decided to sit and spin, further inundating the poor bastids in Hispaniola...
I'm not making ANY calls on this storm. Frank can have my crow this time...
I've had it...
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:54 PM |
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Re: Ivan Storm Surge?
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Quote:I whole-heartedly agree, it *was* surge damage. From the photos of the Ivan damage, the lower sections were the ones damaged, the higher overpass portions were apparantly undamaged....the Biloxi bridge had the most damage to the highest parts of the bridge, 40+ feet above the water level, and the lowest sections, like the old bridge were probably under water during the most violent of the weather. Either way, I definitely feel that both bridges suffered from CAT-V storm surge levels, regardless of wind speed....I agree that wind could not have caused this type of damage. I was stationed as an instructor at KAFB in BIloxi during Camille, and I see many similarities to the damage and track and power of Ivan to Camille other possibly than wind speed at landfall, the tornados, surge, damage signatures all give me nightmares again. I truly empathise with all who had to live through this 'Camille revisited' experience with Ivan.
I agree with you but would like to add this point...... but NONE of the sections were totally distroyed or missing like in Florida, maybe this bridge was built better than the Florida one, it certainly was newer at the time.. ... yeah, it took a long time to repair but I think they just realigned the bridge segments, they did not have to rebuild it, like they will have to do in Florida... wind does not do that type of damage... that's storm surge... and it was pretty bad with Ivan...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 03:59 PM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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Clockwise forces on the southwest and northeast sides are beginning to strip away the outflows. She is being pulled apart lengthwise, and will need to regroup if she makes it back to the water. I see both intensity and track forecasts being adjusted as a result.
Sure would like to get more input from our resident experts on this observation...
|
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:00 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Last three storms have been forecast with great agony by NHC. Here's the latest track map translated to plain english.
No confidence beyond current position (my opinion).
Full size available at www.skeetobite.com
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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maybe we'll get lucky with this one LIPhil... maybe she's just fade away... boy, wouldn't that be welcomed, even for a hard core tracker like me, she just dies a slow death down there and I'll be a happy camper, along with a million others... I just can't imagine poor Florida getting hit with another hurricane... their luck just has to change... maybe its beginning now.... maybe not...
that being said, what's left to hit in Florida.... north florida and the south sections of Florida have yet to take an eastern quad hit from a cane... maybe they're next in line.... I sure hope not...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: Repost from other thread
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Terra -- not sure if someone else has answered your question, but the short answer is no, they don't all follow the same pathway.
For instance, here at FSU until this year, there was two options: the applied option or the graduate prep option. The applied option meant you could get out of 2nd level Atmospheric Physics & Dynamics courses while taking a bunch of technical electives; the graduate prep option was straight-up meteorology designed for academic/research progress. Most weathercasters took the applied option. Some other schools have similar programs, while others have schools/programs devoted exclusively to broadcast meteorology.
Some people on the Weather Channel and a few across the nation (usually weekend meteorologists in small markets) have no weather background whatsoever and are just personalities. Alexandra Steele has no background in meteorology, for instance, and I know of a couple of people in NC that have been doing weather on TV for years but never had any training.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:15 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Looks like Jeanne's LLC is going to the NW off the island...except she forgot her thunderstorms...hmm...i am thinking a Debby type end to this storm.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:15 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Hell, I'd even take a hit up here if it spares Florida...don't want that, but anything's better than them getting hit again.
Me, Spock & Keith are about to feel Ivan's remnants...could be 2-5" depending with some nasty downpours, but nothing in any way, shape or form resembling what those poor folks in Pensacola and surrounding areas faced.
If the NHC's track for Ivan is correct, we're talking flooding of biblical proportions for the appalachians...
Jeanne, Jeanne, go away...and DON'T come again another day.
| AugustaDawg |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:16 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Beach Bum, thanks for the reply. I'm going to be driving down I-75 from Georgia so I think we're going to give it a shot.
Unless something changes in the next 24 hours, we're going forward.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:17 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Skeet,
Do you think that is really going to happen?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:21 PM |
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Mets
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>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology
Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.
Sorry.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:24 PM |
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Re: Mets
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You guys sure know your TV personalities well. How do you get info so fast LI phil?
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:25 PM |
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Re: Mets
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Quote:
>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology
Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.
Sorry.
I think you meant Bush's military record... Oops sorry forgot he doesnt have one..
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:26 PM |
Re: Mets
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or Bush's National Guard Record...ok now we are even LOL sorry had to do it....you left that one open LI PHIL...ok i will stop now.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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It isn't just you!
Here are about three scenarios for Jeanne. I'm not going to say which one I believe the most, just present them for all of you, mainly because I haven't the foggiest idea what is going to happen beyond 2 days or so (a slow motion WNW-NW, assuming the storm does not get torn apart by Hispaniola).
1) Ivan moves as projected by the last NHC paths, diving southward in the Carolinas. Ivan has the potential to move off shore into the Gulf Stream, as predicted by a couple of the models (GFS, Eta) this morning, while Jeanne is drawn northward by the boundary associated with Ivan. The two systems come close enough to each other to result in a partial fujiwhara effect, resulting in Ivan being drawn S & SW along the eastern coast of SC & Ga and Jeanne being slingshot north & NE, then NW towards the Outer Banks & Delmarva.
2) Ivan moves NE with the predominant flow, being picked up by the trough entering the eastern US and sparing the Appalachians a major flooding event. The boundry dropped behind the storm is enough to...
a) Steer the storm northward, possibly grazing the Outer Banks.
b) Result in a slightly more northward component to motion, but not recurving the storm. This would likely result in...
i) A continued NW motion to landfall.
ii) A westward turn at the end of the period as the ridge from the north builds south and around the storm.
c) Have no impact on the storm and leave it in a region of weak steering currents, sending it WNW to the edge of the subtropical ridge.
3) Jeanne gets ripped apart over Hispaniola and continues W/WNW with the predominant low-level flow as an open wave/inverted trough.
4) Ivan has no impact on Jeanne, leaving the storm to its own devices in the short-term and up to a later trough to pick up the storm in the long-term. This is pretty much the same scenario as in iii) above.
I'll leave it up to you all to determine which one you feel is most likely, as all bets are off here right now. I will say that I don't see i) as very likely -- but is certainly possible. Given the way this season has gone, who knows. In any event, everyone from the Keys to Hatteras & the Delmarva needs to watch this one.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:28 PM |
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Re: Mets
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Quote:Quote:
>>> Alexandra Steele has no background in meterology
Unless her bio is as full of holes as Kerry's war record, one of you is wrong.
Sorry.
I think you meant Bush's military record... Oops sorry forgot he doesnt have one..
I think there should be another forum for this kind of stuff. Everyone forgets Bush's last four years of military service as Commander in Chief. Turns out with that experience, he has more active duty than his opponent.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:29 PM |
|
Re: Ho hum
|
Justin the island disrupted her mid level rotation as well, she is not stack very well at the moment... midlevel circulation lagging behind quite a bit as she moves off the island to the nw... now once over water lets see what, if anything, happens next... sure looks bad at the moment.... can she pull it together??? any other season I'd say she's done, but this year... who knows..
|
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:29 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Quote:
Skeet,
Do you think that is really going to happen?
I'm a graphics/web/db guy. However... after crunching coordinates from the past 100 or so advisories and then watching what really happened... no.
I'm working on an animation that demonstrates the life cycle of the NHC forecasts from 5 days out until landfall. Should be pretty interesting when done.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:30 PM |
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Re: Mets
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Hmmm...they've certainly updated her bio since last I checked it a few months ago. Before, that first paragraph wasn't there. Alas, I'll eat crow.
From what I understand though, Fairfield's program is only environmental science, while W. Conn. St. is a broadcast meteorology program. But alas, I stand corrected.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:31 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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I don't think the rain will materlize today, prob tommorow as it is my homecoming parade. The weather ruins everything for me. On a weather note, someone said that Accuweather's track was too fast, I don't think that at all, once the model figure out what type of ridge were dealing with, then it will speed that thing up.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:32 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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I will gladly take a tear apart at this point. This storm is a fighter though. Seems like the storms are defiant this year.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:33 PM |
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Re: Mets
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Sorry about the political remark...once again I open a can of worms...that stuff doesn't belong on the boards...my bad.
As far as Miss Steele's resume, I would agree she certainly didn't take the classical path to meterology...which only shows to go ya that it's never too late.
She's about the only reason to watch TWC in the morning.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:38 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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Wasn't the GFDL making Jeanne do a flip, I think it thinks that Ivan is going to interact with Jeanne and then form an orbit around each other, then Johannes Kepler will discover that the orbits are not circular and then make crazy velocity, and Mean Anomaly equations, then they will make me write a report on them. Been doing this report too long, time to take a break!!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:39 PM |
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Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Well, if there is organization in this system, it is hidden from my eye. Looks like it was hit by a martian disentigrator ray [or some mountain.
]
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:43 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Is it possible for her to re-organize herself since the center is leaving the island (assuming the center is leaving the island)? If that happens, I imagine all the models currently out are worthless. Or, maybe it is too early to tell.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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I think that jeanne is done after looking at the infrared sat loop.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Quote:
Well, if there is organization in this system, it is hidden from my eye. Looks like it was hit by a martian disentigrator ray [or some mountain.
Actually it looks like the LLC is located just north of the border of the DR and Haiti. There's no convection associated with it, so one of three things could happen (?)
1) it reforms convection and keeps chugging to the wnw
2) another LLC reforms where the midlevel stuff is
3) it's fallen and can't get up!
I think the next 6 hours should tell the tale...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:45 PM |
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Re: Ho hum
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I do not remember what model I saw last night on Fox 35 here in Deltona, but it was really crazy. It had her go NW, do a loop, go back west over CF, out to the gulf, do another loop, go back E and go right up the center of Florida. Did anyone see that?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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might not be done just yet... check out the latest vis loop, LLC off the island an appears to be moving to the wnw... circulation very evident on this last couple of frames, convection weak but might be trying to reform... still has major stacking problems with midlevel circulation and has to overcome this issue to continue to develope....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:50 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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All rotation has now ceased, with the exception of one small area NE of Santiago, right on the coastline. The original area of the eye has completely opened and disintegrated. There is no evident organization remaining. Outflows are increasingly being ripped NE and SW, pulling Jeanne apart diagonally. Overall motion now seems to be reversing, drifting back in an easterly direction.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:58 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Okay, two hours ago I would have thought Jeanne looked to be falling apart. I didn't really see any rotation. I go work on some projects for school and when I come back I see this. Is this not rotation?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 04:59 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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than one small LLC located at 20.0 and 71.4 might be just enough to get this thing cranking again.... lets see what happens... I'm not sure if I'm ready to write her off right now... next 6 hours or so will tell the story... right now I'm leaning that, even though she's beaten up pretty bad, she might just get it back together... LLC over water is certainly a start for her survival...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:00 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Looks like she is kinda hitting reverse, Like I do when I hang up my four wheeler
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Nah, she'll e fine. The convective flow from the SW has been cutof due to the mountains over the islands, but there is still a nice circulation. Once she moves far enuf away from the island, the convection will build fairly quickly and the pressure will begin to drop again. Any shear ahead will pull out to the SW. Sorry to say it folks, but Jeanne has passed the test, and stayed away from direct impacts from the mountainous regions. She will refire convection and, as Frank said, this is becoming evident in the last few pix. I'm afraid we'll be looking at a hurricane in 24 hours again.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:02 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Ok, after straining my eyes to try and figure out what Jeanne was doing I see what Frank is talking about. Looks like the former "eye" has emerged and is just about parallel with the Haiti/D.R. border. Seems she's left her t-storms back on the island, and they're currently blowing back to the east. Also appears that what's left of Jeanne is heading just about due west right now which, if she continued that course, would bring her right into Cuba. Right now she appears to have lost much of her punch, and I'm interested in reading what the intermediate update has to say about it at 2.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:03 PM |
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Um...
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DMFisher.
You do indeed see rotation...but that's Karl, not Jeanne
They just moved the floaters. Floater 1 is now on Jeanne & Floater 2 is on Karl.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:03 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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DMFischer -- that's Karl. They switched the second hi-res satellite to Karl a couple hours ago and moved the first one from Ivan to Jeanne.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:04 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Quote:
Okay, two hours ago I would have thought Jeanne looked to be falling apart. I didn't really see any rotation. I go work on some projects for school and when I come back I see this. Is this not rotation?
DM that's the current loop for Karl. They've switched Jeanne to floater 1 and put Karl on floater 2
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:06 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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an some one give me a good link for sat views of Jeanne?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:07 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:09 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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The weather man here at Local 6 and channel 9 all concur that were suppposed to be hit with with Jeanne on Wednesday. great what a nice birthday present for me. So all i say if we are to get it bring it on and get it over with.
| mom2als |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:10 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Augustadawg,
Just thought I'd let you know that right now Disney is in great shape crowd wise. I'd say barring a visit from Jeanne, its a perfect time to come before the crowds start getting up the nerve to come back down. My mom works there and guests tell her its pretty empty! And to be honest, thats it the one place I'd feel safe in this area during a storm.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:13 PM |
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Birthday gifts...
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Quote:
The weather man here at Local 6 and channel 9 all concur that were suppposed to be hit with with Jeanne on Wednesday. great what a nice birthday present for me. So all i say if we are to get it bring it on and get it over with.
Hurricane Frances made landfall on September 3rd...
The 3rd was my younger sister's birthday - her middle name is Frances.
Thankfully, none of my relatives have a middle name of "Jeanne"
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:13 PM |
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Elvis has just left the building...
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Jeanne has finally removed her bad self from Hispaniola.
Let the fun begin
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:14 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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So the eye is that puff of clouds just north of the haiti border right?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:15 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Steve, you might be right although I think 24 hours might be a little to fast to reach hurricane status, but you never know about intensity.. she's already looking a little better from the past hour of loops... I can see convection starting to fire off on the se side from the 16:45 sat pix, right now looking like she might survive after all... but needs to stay away from cuba... and I think she will, looks to be going wnw ..
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:15 PM |
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Re: Um...
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Wellll ummmmm shucks....let me go back to my corner and hush
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:16 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Quote:
Augustadawg,
Just thought I'd let you know that right now Disney is in great shape crowd wise. I'd say barring a visit from Jeanne, its a perfect time to come before the crowds start getting up the nerve to come back down. My mom works there and guests tell her its pretty empty! And to be honest, thats it the one place I'd feel safe in this area during a storm.
You got that right. The Disney infrastructure is amazing. Many Central Floridians *evacuated* to Disney during Frances. We figure that if the entire SouthEast lost power, Disney would still be humming along.
They do have one resort closed due to Charley/Frances damage, but it seems to be more cosmetic. They were the first ones to open their park after Frances, though it was a lousy day. This is slow season so a good time to visit.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:17 PM |
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Eye?
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>>> So the eye is that puff of clouds just north of the haiti border right?
More like an LLC at this point, but watch her start to spin up if she can stay over that warm water...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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I just have to wonder what kind of support there is left at the mid and upper levels. Could be the classic case from a few years back where the LLC leaves and spins out and everything else is left behind.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:22 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Rasvar you'd expect that to happen every now and then during a NORMAL hurricane season, and that may well happen here, the LLC races off and leaves all the convection and the system just dies out, but the way things are going this year, all bets are off... it looks like to me its already trying to build up that convection... lets watch and see.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:22 PM |
Re: Elvis has just left the building...
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LI Phil... you're right. The ghost of the eye emerges on the NW side. Quick, let's hit it with Dynagel while it's still being reborn... <sigh>
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:28 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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if that LLC survives, looks to be about .5 to .8 degrees south of NHC projected path at that point, at least according to the NRL plot of it....will be interesting to see if it can get its act together.... I really doubted it a couple of hours ago, but the LLC does look fairly well formed, and I think the upper air environment is supposed to remain favorable for another day or 2, particular if it stays south, right?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Actually, it looks to be a full degree south of the projected path--although that's often not too significant, with this storm it could be.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:42 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Ok, someone tell me there's vitually no way that the LLC could race ahead, gather convection and continue to rock... and at the same time have the Midlevel center drill down (since it's stationary) and form *another* LLC.
That really would be pretty damn unlikely... right?
Then again, with a year like this, why not have something really odd happen....
Mark
(Falcons, Still 1 - 0)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:43 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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unlikely--but if the LLC gets enough distance and the environment remains favorable where the MLC was, of course it's possible. But with the MLC probably over Hispaniola, it'd be tough...it would have to move off, or re-form with convection off the coast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:44 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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HIGHLY unlikely would be more accurate
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:48 PM |
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Meanwhile
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Karl had formed an eye earlier, now appears to have closed up, but he's developing nicely. All I can say is this one better damn spin the fishes!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:53 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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So what do our resident experts think...? Do you or do you not think Jeanne will reform and continue on... (this is the part that where you get to use all your training!).
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:57 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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Well, with my poor spanish, it appears they are keeping Jeanne at 65 MPH 19.5N 71.2 W Motion WNW? at 8 990mb.
Especially odd since the 16A in spanish on the NHC's site is essentially no change from the 11. Still says 16A though and 2:00PM.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 05:58 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
I guess the question is, do Ivan and Jeanne want to go on a blind date? (blind, because neither one has an eye right now)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:02 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Quote:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
can some one translate that link into plain english???
I guess the question is, do Ivan and Jeanne want to go on a blind date? (blind, because neither one has an eye right now)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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I am by no mean an expert but then how do you define it! Anyway, I think Jeanne will reform it's just going to take some time, just because something looks ragged and bent out of shape one day doen't mean it will stay like that. Almost every model develops the storm and the shear ahead of it will back down, so it will re-enter a favorable eviorment. All this stuff about the LLC, it can form a new LLC. Lets hope for the worst, so we can get better than it; that's what I always say! (only kidding)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: Ding Dong the witch is dead?
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That looks like an error--I'm pretty sure that's the same language from the 11 am Spanish one, but I can't find the 11 to check. (I did look at it at 11, though, so I think it's the same one.)
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Jeanne down to 50kts, 1000mb but now off the coast into water near 20.2N and 71.5W
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:03 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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can someone translate that disucussion in to plain English?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:06 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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guess hurricane center is just ahead of me,,1002mb and 45Kt winds =50mph.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:06 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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OK, that makes more sense. Someone screwed up and sent out the 16A in Spanish with the 16 data. It had all the wording right for a 16A though.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:07 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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and 20.1/71.6 Scott--a little different than what you posted, but not important. So it's only about .5 degree south of projected track.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:10 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Sorry, this is an example of why Vulcans don't tell jokes....
The GFS minors out the circulation as it drifts it southward offshore.
The ETA emerges Ivan off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and actually re-organizes it as it moves south, then southwest.
The reason the model shows for doing this, is that now both models are strengthening a trof in the N.E. U.S.
IF the ETA's scenario is correct, what would likely happen is Jeanne would have to move around it. I believe Clarke gave that scenario earlier. The ETA actually has both systems interact, but the problem is, it loses Jeanne, and its reflection of it is probably not accurate.
Here is a link that loops the images so you can see the progression.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/eta/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml
At this point, it is my opinion that the remnants of Ivan are at least likely to move off of the coast, since this has been the trend. What happens after that is unknown.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:12 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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yep, i actually had a diff sat view of the 20.2 and 71.5 kinda odd that is .1 n and east of them. Its not ne. Anyways sat is probably off a tad.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:17 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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I think that the ETA is correct also as I think I metioned in a earlier post. The ETA has Jeanne doing loops and all sorts of weird stuff but I think that could happen if they get close enough. Also, some models have Ivan backtracking and back into the Gulf, there must be some errors there.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:21 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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The ETA may have a better handle on Ivan now than it did while in the Carib. since it is over land, and probably has better initializations. Let's just say I am glad I don't have to forecast this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:28 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Scrott: Or the NHC is off a bit--your position might be more accurate. Pretty tough to pinpoint within .1 degree. I was just pointing out that the NHC pegged it differently, in case anyone thought you were giving the NHC's position; I didn't mean to imply you were wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:32 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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And I also didn't mean to call you "ScRott"
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:33 PM |
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who needs a laugh right now?
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Models...
Obviously they've got a good handle on Jeanne.
More models...
and an even better handle on Ivan.
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?
Sorry.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:34 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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recon shows pressure now at 1004mb.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:35 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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Quote:
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?
Yes, but it's a secret.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:37 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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Are you still leaning towards your early am post?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:38 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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You know, we really could use Ivan's rain here in Missouri....
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:39 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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Interesting that Accuweather still holds true to the track- Jeanne will pass thru central florida and on to the gulf- then panhandle?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:41 PM |
Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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LI Phil....that is the best laugh I have had in days....Thanks
Does anybody really know?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:42 PM |
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JB Afternoon post-headline & first sentence say it all
|
Check this out...from the horse's mouth...
"FRIDAY AFTERNOON POST: BIGGEST TROPICAL CHALLENGE OF SEASON STARES FORECASTERS IN THE FACE...AT LEAST I THINK SO.
I dont think I have ever seen anything like this... a forecast so fraught with uncertainties."
And here I thought it was just me...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:42 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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yes
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:43 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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MrSpock... is that even feasible? Ivan re-emerging into the Atlantic in the D.C. area and turning southwest.... coming back down the coast toward Florida seems highly unlikely.... but if so, would the water temps support intensification back to T.S. or (God forbid) hurricane status?
How much more abuse can we take in Florida...?
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:45 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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As you said, probably highly unlikely. If it were to move in that direction, wouldn't it possibly have Jeanne to deal with?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:47 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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Where is it? That was my first impression about an hour ago when I went looking for it then...now however I see the IR-4 showing a convective burst near the reported center but we have a 2mb increase in pressure? Survival is an issue.
as for models nobody can find it initiaizations are all over the place so they are useless now.
The convection moving NW in the gulf of Panama caught my eye...
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:48 PM |
|
Re: Meanwhile
|
it is possible, and the gulf stream is out there. I can't see this becoming major issue again, as I think it is hard for storms moving that way after being ripped up over land to regenerate. After it goes east of Hatteras, the water is warm.
I wouldn't worry about that scenario now though, as it will be tough to verify. In fact, it could actually spare Fla. from Jeanne, and may not affect it again either. Too many possibilites.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:49 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Yet that is EXACTLY what JB is opining in the midday...to wit...
"So the call is for Ivan to get to the coast tomorrow night and start south, hugging the coast all the way to Florida Monday morning then cutting west southwest into the gulf. Just what is left of it will have to be determined at another date, but folks north of the center on the coast as it pushes south should not be surprised when northeast gales develop as the high pushes it down, for a 12-24 hour period, and that goes all the way to the Carolinas by Monday, after starting in Jersey tomorrow."
I think the man is nuts right now, and who can blame him with all the crazy s--- us weather nuts have been thru the past six weeks...can that canadian high be that strong? If so, gimme some of that canadian high
knowwhaI'msayin?TGIF das all I can say...
I dare anyone to lay out a forecast for either of these two puppies right now...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:50 PM |
Re:OPEN WAVE
|
Looking more like an open wave. Hope I'm right. Most systems don't fair well in those mountains. To me it's 50/50 that a recon will not find an LLC and at 5pm, call it an open wave.
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:50 PM |
|
Just an Observation...
|
Considering the fact that we have 3 active systems right now and I'm sure there will be plenty more this season, when posting a thought or forecast about a specific system, please reference which system it is. Makes it easier for slow people like me to catch up with the conversation.
Thanks everyone
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:51 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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LI Phil... thanks! I'm gonna quit worrying for now. They obviously have absolutely NO IDEA where Ivan or Jeanne will end up. I'm going to wait until the model summary stops looking like a box of fireworks exploded... then I'll start paying attention again.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:53 PM |
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|
Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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Clark,
You left out an important option. Ivan backs SW from VA through Louisiana and emerges into the western gulf changing the flow. Here's an encapsulation of JB's comments from today. Personally, I'm not sold on the low level swirl. It looks like a Pacific hurricane that degenerated days ago. Can it come back? Maybe. Will it come back? Maybe (see comments below).
Spock,
You're falling into the same trap the NHC is with the right bias of all the models. I'd give < 15% shot at the Carolinas.
------------------------------------------------------
For Clark:
Now I live here and don't want people thinking I'm wishcasting anything my way. I wouldn't even make that call just due to impartiality that is sorely lacking on every hurricane fan site. I don't even agree with Joe that the setup will verify. My way of thinking would be IF Jeanne was to cross FL or the Straits, it would be slow but not make it as far west as here. That's a 8-10 day out opinion. Jeanne could easily be long gone by then anyway. But he draws some interesting LA parallels, so I figured I'd throw out a legal synopsis for anyone interested:
1) (Previous Idea) - Similar H20 temperature profile & neutral-slightly negative SOI to his analog 2002.
2) Galveston record high (last set in 2002, Isidore shows up a week later)
3) He likes a cross between 1947 and Betsy for a track at this point.
4) His pulse idea of the increments of 3-6 degrees west with each landfall as the SW Atlantic High backs to its summer crescendo.
5) Models have been north and right biased all year in their early phases. Corrections would be farther west, but even if Ivan gets north of 30 and hit N FL, the circulation would back SW. Joe doesn't see it getting above 27, and the turn to the west (painfully slow) is not for another 5 or 6 days.
6) He likes Jeanne at Cat 2 or 3 when it turns west (which means look out in C&S FL).
7) Accomplished via Ivan weakening and splitting (as I wondered yesterday if that was why the models showed the loop-d-loop) and backing Ivan's upper feature dives SW (trof split) into the Gulf. The eastern ridge is powerful. Ivan's upper remains change the windflow in the Western Gulf. The ridge in the SW builds and bridges NE overtop of the mid-Altantic States (similar pattern from the 3 storms named in the title).
8) Said pattern argues for storms (when there) to move west into the central Gulf.
Steve
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 06:58 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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Can't fall into a trap when you don't have a forecast. Just simply spitting out model data.
Edit for comment:
Yesterday when I blasted accu. I stated that I felt the threat area was from Fla. to the Carolinas. That is a generalization, not a forecast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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so, in basic easy terms...is Jeanne finished? If not, then when will they know?
worried in Florida
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:02 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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>>> so, in basic easy terms...is Jeanne finished? If not, then when will they know?
Heh....who wants to take a shot at this one...I'm not touching it.
EDIT: BTW, wunderground just added something called "storm history/verification" to their tropical suites...check it out!
Ivan
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:05 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
|
LI Phil
Here's what happened with the Jeanne models. They called me and some of the other newbies and asked us to feed the models...
Seems the poor NHC guys are exhausted!
At least you veteren weather guys know how we feel now. Its a perfect depiction of what the newbies are thinking!
As much as I love the NHC and regard them as the ultimate experts I gotta say your post gave me the best laugh I've had in awhile.
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:06 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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So is South Carolina officially out of the woods now when it comes to Jeanne?
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:08 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Quote:
I dare anyone to lay out a forecast for either of these two puppies right now...
Then with the gauntlet thrown - I shall step up and swag myself some forecasts
Ivan. This mess will exit the US off the Carolinas, spin up a bit then move on in a few days while strengthening just enough to freak everyone out - it will then become extra-tropical and go bye-bye to wreak havok in the UK.
Jeanne - poor, tired girl will start strengthening but never fully recovers. look for landfall in SE (sorry guys) Florida as a barely-holding-onto-life Cat 1 middle of the week.
Karl - yeah - the fish may never recover from him
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case?
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:09 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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LET ME TAKE A SHOT AT HER....!!!
SHE IS DEAD.. A DEAD DUCK!
how's that for a wanna be weather woman
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:09 PM |
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Re: who needs a laugh right now?
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I wouldn't say that just yet - it's probably a little too early to rule it out at the moment.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:09 PM |
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Re: Water cooler pool on Jeanne's survival
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the 18:45 frame of the visual sat sure looks to me like storm is reorganizing.
|
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:10 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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liphil said >> I dare anyone to lay out a forecast for either of these two puppies right now...
Let me narrow this down for everyone with my laser focus forecast (a Skeetobite exclusive):
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:12 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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I think your cone is a little narrow, Skeet
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:13 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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New here... who is JB and where can we read his opines?
Quote:
Yet that is EXACTLY what JB is opining in the midday...to wit...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:13 PM |
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HEH Skeeter
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In case anyone is wondering, not the red dot but the big huge circle surrounding it...that's where Jeanne will be...pick anyhwere within the cone...well...wait, that's not a cone is it?
Skeeter just made history, the CIRCLE of uncertainty! Brilliant
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:13 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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skeetobite said
"Let me narrow this down for everyone with my laser focus forecast (a Skeetobite exclusive):"
STOP! NOW PLEASE!!!! You guys are gonna make me need some depends here!
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:14 PM |
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Re: HEH Skeeter
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LOL!
| AugustaDawg |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:14 PM |
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Re: What the ...
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Thank you mom2als!! We're going to give it a shot!!
| dwlobo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:19 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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All my co-workers are looking at me funny, since I just fell out of my chair lol! Very good analogy of where we think we are.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:27 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Jeanne is pretty much doing what the NHC said it would do.......weaken to a TS then begin re-strengthening. She has to get away from the island and pull her circulation back together. This is beginning now. Give her time. She has survived the trek. She will pull herself together, then get us nervous as hell along the Florida coastline. Don't react to every new sat frame. Patience.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:27 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Funny...good stuff we need to laugh
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:28 PM |
Re: Meanwhile
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I knew somebody knew what was going on thanks skeetobite! LOL
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:33 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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The storm is a mess the llc(?) is exposed and the mid level backing to the east with shear over it...life support please!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:33 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Last Recon shows 39/MPH 1003MB pressure, no closed eye wall or couldn't find eye wall..
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:34 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Quote:
New here... who is JB and where can we read his opines?Quote:
Yet that is EXACTLY what JB is opining in the midday...to wit...
JB = Joe Bastardi, Chief Meteorologist at Accuweather.com
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:35 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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SkeetoBite, I think you can make the same chart for Ivan. I do not think I have seen a bigger mess in forecast. Looks like a three year old is drawing the tracks.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:36 PM |
Re: Meanwhile
|
Great news to take to "happy hour" with me in about an hour!!YIPEEE she is almost dead!!!!!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:38 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Quote:Quote:
New here... who is JB and where can we read his opines?Quote:
Yet that is EXACTLY what JB is opining in the midday...to wit...
JB = Joe Bastardi, Chief Meteorologist at Accuweather.com
Ah, crap, I totally forgot about that post.
One must add, unfortunately that access to Joe B is not free. You can, however, try the service for free for 30 days. A bunch of us on here are subscribers...others feel they should not have to pay for access to data (not necessarily Joe B) that we as taxpayers support...
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/promotional.asp?type=benefits
if you do decide to sign up, make sure you sign up for the PRO not the Premium, because with Premium you don't get Joe.
| Londovir |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:42 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Could we call that the Sphere of Speculation? The Loci of Lunacy? The Circle of Solitude? The Conic of Convection?
I give up.
In any case, that animated model verification seems to say the GFDL, overall, had Ivan pegged as soon as Ivan brushed Jamaica. Might have twittered a bit from Panama City to New Orleans, but eventually settled right on target.
That said, wouldn't it be nice if the GFDL had Jeanne pegged? The 8am run of it had doing the tourist thing with Bermuda....man, that would be nice....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:43 PM |
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New Wunderground Feature
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BTW, did anyone check out the model forecast verification feature from wunderground?
Ivan
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:44 PM |
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Re: New Wunderground Feature
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talk about right bias... geesh
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:45 PM |
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Recon re: jeanne
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Although no eye, looks like recon did find closed circulation - so it has survived, so far.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:48 PM |
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Re: Recon re: jeanne
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Where did you find the recon data? Recent data.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:50 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Meanwhile
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Ok, I have one question. Who was drinking when they ran some of those models? Give me a couple hours and I'll be in great shape to post my own that looks like that...lol.
And I don't think many of the models saw Jeanne getting smacked around like she has when they made their forecasts. In fact, most of the ones I saw had her skirting the coast of Hispaniola, losing some strength, but continuing to push on. Looks to me like she tracked too far south along the island and got whacked pretty good. Though on the latest sat loop you can see the circulation spinning out from under the t-storms. I've even attached a nice little picture.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:53 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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I'd go with the 'Circle of Doom'. I do believe in the NHC track; I justify that because Hispaniola did not put Jeanne in her bottle; she is uncorked and well postured to regaining some strength- On to the Bahamas!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 07:59 PM |
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My .02 forecast
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Well, I don't think that we should have to pay for forecasts either, but you also get what you pay for. I am by far not a meteorologist, but based on what I've observed this and past seasons and applying it to current storms, here's my forecast.
Ivan - I think Ivan will continue to dump incredible amounts of rain as he circles around to the right to almost a full 360 turn back into western Georgia. He will continue to die out as any sort of organized storm in the process.
Jeanne - I think she will make it off the coast of Hispaniola and begin to reform the circle of convection around the eye. As this strengthing occurs, she will speed up. I disagree with the NHC that the turn to the west will be so abrupt. I think it will be a wide arc with landfall around the same place as Frances with 50 mile margin of error either north or south, depending on how long Ivan hangs out in GA and how fast the high over Florida erodes.
Karl - as for Karl, I hope Nemo has some Advil, cuz Karl's gonna give them fishies a headache.
Going out on a limb here, but I also think we will see another organized system beginning by the middle of next week.
I'll share those crow recipes with you later tpratch :-).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:01 PM |
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Re: Recon re: jeanne
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There are lots of places to find it - NHC site (nhc.noaa.gov, hit recon link at upper left) usually has the data pretty quickly. I've found net-waves.com/weather is often quicker and lists it more conveniently (i.e., a list of each observation you can read). Other sites have it, and some may be quicker or better, but with those 2 you should be able to find it pretty quickly.
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:06 PM |
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Jeanne again
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The latest IR loop of Jeanne is interesting. It looks like there is convection multiplying exponentially on the north side of Hispaniola all the way to the west of the system. There also appeas to be a center of circulation within that area of high convection to the south of the island as well.
Any other thoughts?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:07 PM |
|
Jeanne again
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Sorry to post yet again....now that recon has found a closed center, I'd be surprised if the NHC didn't keep Jeanne as at least a depression. But looking at the storm, I was wondering if she hadn't been classified earlier, whether the NHC would make her a depression now? The convection is pretty far removed from the LLC - I think it'd be a debatable call. I don't think there's any question but that for the sake of continuity, the NHC wouldn't downgrade now...but I do think it's a subjective call at this point.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:08 PM |
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Re: Recon re: jeanne
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I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I've never seen something that looks like it comes out of a random number generator like this situation. I think I will pretty much ignore all forecasts for 24 hours and then see what happens with a new slate.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:09 PM |
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Re: Jeanne again
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Kdubs and I chose same names for our posts...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:12 PM |
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Re: Jeanne again
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>>> I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen.
Forecaster Franklin at 5:00
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:16 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne again
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Quote:
Kdubs and I chose same names for our posts...
That's rather eerie, isn't it, Brad?
(Insert Twilight Zone music here). This hurricane season continues to weirden (my new word for the day) with each passing day.
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:18 PM |
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Re: Recon re: jeanne
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Quote:
I am going to come out and say this. I have absolutely no idea what is going to happen. I've never seen something that looks like it comes out of a random number generator like this situation. I think I will pretty much ignore all forecasts for 24 hours and then see what happens with a new slate.
If every meteorologist were completely honest, this is all they would be able to say for just about every storm. The only thing that seems to remain constant is that these storms that Africa so generously donates to the Atlantic ocean never seem to swing around and go back home. It's like a suicide mission - Kamikaze hurricanes.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:19 PM |
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TS Karl
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Why is Karl's info over there
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
Gaston? Just curious!
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:19 PM |
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Re: For You Crow Munchers
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Quote:
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case?
Crow and Mushroom Stew
3 crows
1 Tbsp lard/shortening
1 pint stock or gravy
2 Tbsp cream
1/2 cup mushrooms
salt and pepper
cayenne pepper
Clean and cut crows into small portions and let them cook a short time in the lard/shortening in a saucepan, being careful not to brown them.
Next, add to the contents of the pan, the stock or gravy, and salt, pepper and cayenne to taste.
Simmer 1 hour, or until tender, add mushrooms, simmer 10 minutes more and then stir in cream.
Arrange the mushrooms around the crows on a hot platter.
Enjoy!
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:20 PM |
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PHIL....
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i was looking at your signature...... do you think you will have -2 or 3s
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:21 PM |
|
|
Jeanne again
|
In keeping with the posting theme,
Jeanne again
She's got a long way to go to regain her convection, but she's a cyclops again...make it all go away please.
Should be a MOST interesting 5:00 discussion...anyone know who gets the "honors".? Gotta hope for Stacy because at least then we might have some semblance of an idea of where this whole thing is going...
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:22 PM |
|
Re: For You Crow Munchers
|
Quote:Quote:
I guess all that remains is to post this. Anyone have any crow recipies handy - you know, just in case?
Crow and Mushroom Stew
3 crows
1 Tbsp lard/shortening
1 pint stock or gravy
2 Tbsp cream
1/2 cup mushrooms
salt and pepper
cayenne pepper
Clean and cut crows into small portions and let them cook a short time in the lard/shortening in a saucepan, being careful not to brown them.
Next, add to the contents of the pan, the stock or gravy, and salt, pepper and cayenne to taste.
Simmer 1 hour, or until tender, add mushrooms, simmer 10 minutes more and then stir in cream.
Arrange the mushrooms around the crows on a hot platter.
Enjoy!
| Kdubs |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:23 PM |
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|
Yummy crow recipes for all
|
Quote:
Crow and Mushroom Stew
3 crows
1 Tbsp lard/shortening
1 pint stock or gravy
2 Tbsp cream
1/2 cup mushrooms
salt and pepper
cayenne pepper
I thought you had made this up until I found this site...
http://www.crowbusters.com/recipes.htm
Anyone up for some "Crow in a Blanket"?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:23 PM |
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Re: PHIL....
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Quote:
i was looking at your signature...... do you think you will have -2 or 3s
I'm quite happy with -1 thank you...but the way this season's going...why not 7 total majors? That would give me a -4
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:24 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne again
|
Quote:
In keeping with the posting theme,
Jeanne again
She's got a long way to go to regain her convection, but she's a cyclops again...make it all go away please.
Should be a MOST interesting 5:00 discussion...anyone know who gets the "honors".? Gotta hope for Stacy because at least then we might have some semblance of an idea of where this whole thing is going...
she is gonna fight to the end isn't she?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:34 PM |
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Re: Recon re: jeanne
|
(off topic post moved to comedy forum)
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:34 PM |
|
|
|
Jeanne emerges again
|
looks like a center has moved north off the island and is heading West toward Cuba.
She has a long way to go to regain her strength however.
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:41 PM |
|
From Franklin
|
And you guys thought Stacy Stewart was the clever one...
From the 5:00 discussion on Karl:
Dvorak T-numbers are all converging on t3.5 and I will
hold the initial intensity estimate at 55 kt. Karl retains
well-defined banding features and the upper-level environment shows
strong anticyclonic and divergent flow aloft. While Karl Marks
time over warm waters it is expected to strengthen...and the
official forecast remains a blend of the GFDL and SHIPS guidance.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:42 PM |
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Re: Jeanne emerges again
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We just need to wait like 36hrs to see if she even cares about the water anymore. She has gotten so disorganized than organnized. She wants to live, than she wants to die. I wish she would make up her mind!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:44 PM |
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Re: From Franklin
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Karl Marks...you know they've been saving that one up!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:45 PM |
|
The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
|
are all graveyards of busted forecasts... the legacy continues...
Mobile TV channel 5 is running continuous footage of the destruction and devastation caused by Ivan from the air via hellicopter... I am in total shock.... substational damage to all types of structures... Perdido Key hit very hard..... interesting, some houses totally destroyed, some right next to them basically OK (roof damage)... TV contributing that to small tornadoes, hit and miss..... I will say this a majority of the houses are still there... but some heavily damaged ... a plethora of buildings and homes in standing water... sand is basically gone from a lot of the areas and the area has been rearranged somewhat... this recovery will take a long long time.....
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:47 PM |
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Re: From Franklin
|
BTW, the newest Jeanne models from Weather Underground look kind of like Don King's hair! That can't be good.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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Flora-Bama Lounge is three feet of sand now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:49 PM |
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5 pm forecast--stationary for at least 48 hours???
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Wow
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:49 PM |
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5:00 Track - Unbelievable!
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5:00 track
Do you believe this?
and here's the
5-day
Guess you'd call that a stall...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:49 PM |
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Re: 5 pm forecast--stationary for at least 48 hours???
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The last 48 hours, that is
| Bioman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:52 PM |
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Re: 5 pm forecast--stationary for at least 48 hours???
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nobody is talking about hurricane Javier. looks like the southwest is going to get slammed
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:54 PM |
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Re: 5:00 Track - Unbelievable!
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Yeah, it looks like SkeetoBite's graphic
| clyde w. |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:54 PM |
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Re: 5:00 Track - Unbelievable!
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That is the ultimate cone of uncertainty. It looks like they put Skeetobites map on top of theirs!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:54 PM |
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Re: 5 pm forecast--stationary for at least 48 hours???
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Jeanne verification
how funny is this gonna look in a couple of days?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 08:55 PM |
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Re: From Franklin
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Quote:
BTW, the newest Jeanne models from Weather Underground look kind of like Don King's hair! That can't be good.
Whaddya mean? That's Fantabulous!
Heh...Don King...King of the malaprop! Good one agentB!
5pm update has it downgraded to a TD. 34kt winds at the surface. Still calling for restrengthening to 55kt in 48hrs. Guess we'll have to wait and see.
"The official forecast moves Jeanne northwest to northward for 3 days and then holds the motion stationary several hundred miles northeast of the northern Bahamas"
Hmm...can you say wavemaker?
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:03 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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Quote:
interesting, some houses totally destroyed, some right next to them basically OK (roof damage)...
I have noticed this with many major hurricanes. Ted Fujita came up with the idea of "mini-swirls" in the eyewall of hurricanes after surveying the damage of Hurricane Andrew. In Andrew, there would be one block of houses with the roofs torn off, but the adjacent block would have considerably less damage. I noticed the exact same thing with Hurricane Charley. It appears to me that the worst damage in major hurricanes is caused by small tornadic vortices within the eyewall.
Ronn
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:05 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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I have noticed this with many major hurricanes. Ted Fujita came up with the idea of "mini-swirls" in the eyewall of hurricanes after surveying the damage of Hurricane Andrew. In Andrew, there would be one block of houses with the roofs torn off, but the adjacent block would have considerably less damage. I noticed the exact same thing with Hurricane Charley. It appears to me that the worst damage in major hurricanes is caused by small tornadic vortices within the eyewall.
Ronn
Too bad he can't survey this one...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:07 PM |
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Re: From Franklin
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Agent B:
34 kt winds at flight level, not at the surface. 30 kt at the surface--and I bet that's generous, in a very limited area at best.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:11 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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Ronn, what this really tells me is that anyone who does not evacuate is at grave risk.... if you are in that east eye wall of a major storm close to the point of landfall, you best get the hell outta dodge.... because you'll never know if one of them mini-swirls has your number or not..... interesting..
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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Quote:
Ronn, what this really tells me is that anyone who does not evacuate is at grave risk.... if you are in that east eye wall of a major storm close to the point of landfall, you best get the hell outta dodge.... because you'll never know if one of them mini-swirls has your number or not.....
Unfortunately there will always be those that play russian roulette with their lives.
It saddens me to see the extent of the damage along the coast.
Mother nature will win every battle.
The dome home came through ok I think...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:19 PM |
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Re: The GOM, the Atlantic, the Caribbean....
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Yeah, dome home held up great....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:23 PM |
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The Dome Home
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>>>Yeah, dome home held up great
For anyone who might not know to what they are referring, this is the Dome Home.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:49 PM |
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watching jeanne struggle
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still looks stationary, maybe drift to west, last couple of sat pixs show some convection trying to build NE of LLC, not much, but its gotta start developing convection around the LLC if its going to do anything at all, could be the start of that process... still needs to get some distance from the island for any real development to occur and if this happens I think it might still have a chance to slowly develop.... ..
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 09:55 PM |
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Re: watching jeanne struggle
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So the consensus is for a SE coastal 'near-miss'. I'm not too sure about that, but I do hope for Jeanne to go to the fishes.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:07 PM |
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Re: watching jeanne struggle
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considering what it has been thru, its amazing it looks that good. center is looking better.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: The Dome Home
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here is the actual picture of the dome home before Ivan came thought (in the middle of the page).
um...where is it?
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:25 PM |
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Re: The Dome Home
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The best example of how forecasting can be tricky.......A few days ago, Ivan was supposed to be stationary by now, and he is now moving ENE at 20 mph.
Accuweather said Jeanne was going to hit Fla in 5 days with a minimum of 95-110 mph winds, now guidance shifts east, and is being considered less of a threat to the S.E coast, while maintaining average tropical storm strength.
Those limbs can be pretty shaky at times.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:34 PM |
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Re: The Dome Home
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I found this article about how the Dome Home and Ivan. Dome Home Lives Through Ivan
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:41 PM |
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Re: The Dome Home
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How are you bearing with the rain today Mr.Spock, just as I predicted the rain didn't materlize on LI today but of course it will tom. coupled witth that strong pressure gradient, we could be seeing gusts up to 35 mph's. That should be a nasty day. Jeanne seems to be re-organizing but it's LLC is still exposed, I'm almost in total disagreement with the NHC's forecast now and I'm getting nervous that this storm could ride it's way up here. Let's see how it pans out, very hard forecast with this one.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:43 PM |
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She's coming back slowly ... .see recon below
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Storm JEANNE: Observed By AF #977
Storm #11 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 49KT (56.4mph 90.8km/h) In N Quadrant At 2131Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 44.1KT (50.7mph 81.7km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, September 17, 2004 17:10:00 (Fri, 17 Sep 2004 22:10:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 20° 08' N 71° 47' W (20.1°N 71.8°W)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 40KT (46MPH 74.1km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 45nm (51.75miles) From Center At Bearing 041°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 49KT (56.35mph 90.8km/h) From 108°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 045nm (51.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 041°
Minimum pressure: 1000mb (29.53in) -- Extrapolated
Eye Wall Characterization Not Reported
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form or was not reported
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): Surface 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.1nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 5nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:49 PM |
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chaos reigns supreme
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we've got one of the most complicated forecast situations i've ever seen with tropical cyclones developing in the western atlantic.
jeanne is stuck, clinging to the north coast of haiti, getting intense sw shear. all it's convection is away to the east, and the center is being drawn towards it.. also a low layer vortmax southwest of haiti is dragging it. that's just getting started.
ivan has swept northeastward more quickly than forecast, and it's future is also a point of confusion. its upper vorticity should get sucked out NE ahead of the sharp shortwave leading the strong reinforcing ridge, while the surface system should drag offshore, turn SW, and possibly redevelop. if it doesn't shear out, that is. the orientation of the ridge developing north of jeanne should become more peaked, and force the storm more westward, once the shortwave trough energy currently diving into the NE US interacts with the complex upper trough east of bermuda.. and this is the same upper system that should bring karl up east of jeanne.. which models variably show dragging jeanne away to the east, or not having significant influence and letting jeanne come west. add to that the cyclogenesis being indicated in the stewing feature in the SW caribbean, and we've got one whopper of a complicated forecasting situation.
here's my rundown:
ivan gets stripped offshore, then forced back SW as a weak system. jeanne meanders near the SE bahamas for a couple of days, begins coming west again, heads for the southeast while intensifying. potential invest in the western caribbean. karl is already showing tendency to recurve.. intensifies a great deal over the weekend and heads north out to sea on the upper trough. another invest appears on the wave in karls wake early next week.
if half of that pans out i'll be super-satisfied.. i'll feel good on even 25%.. this is one hell of chaotic forecasting problem.
have fun figuring this one out, cfhc.
HF 2246z17september
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:55 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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It looks to me that every one in the frenzy over Ivan, over forecasted Jeanne to start with. She never looked like a hurricane to me nor much of a tropical storm. I would look at those pressures and the wind speeds and they did not look valid according to the satellite pix we were getting. It was almost like the forecasters were just throwing it out there so they could keep their eyes on Ivan. I know that those islands have more land mass to them than it appears. Jeanne is probably an afternoon aggravation to some one's picnic later this coming week. I think IVan has sucked all the energy out of the atmosphere and there will be very little action close to U.S. until middle of October if then.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:56 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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An amazing turn of events....Now I am hearing models and even respected forecasters mentioning the possibility of Ivan pulling off the East Coast, turning south and restrengthening before threatening to come ashore again in Florida! I know some of you give little credence to Gary Gray and his forecasts..but take a minute and read his discussion for today. It kinda blows my mind:
http://millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html
This hurricane season is just one thrill a minute.
--Lou
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:58 PM |
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Re: The Dome Home
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Maybe a drop or two, but there are tornado warnings in the D.C. area and south and west. Except for being muggy, it wasn't that bad here today. It might be awefully hard to stall this storm off of the coast and drift it south considering it has accelerated. I/we should see heavier rain tonight though, as my local office is calling for a general 1-2" in my area-mere drizzle compared to what is happening elsewhere.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 10:59 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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So, I noticed that the Accuweather forecast hasn't changed so much...... Does this guy (Mr. Bastardi) really know his stuff? I have trusted the NHC but this seems to be a HUGE mess! I want to be prepared but I'm tired of being on the edge. I haven't gotten much sleep since Charley came through and I finally finished my Frances clean up yesterday. Now, I get to help the neighbors who haven't been able to work as much as I have. I had to focus my nervous energy somewhere.
So, I think I know what you guys are thinking....... you really don't have any idea what is going to happen. That is very unnerving for those of us who don't have a clue! Do you think 24 hours is going to make a difference? Should we know more tomorrow? Sorry for so many questions, just trying to get my schedule in my head. I was told when I come to work Monday to come prepared to work for 3 days. Doesn't look like that is going to pan out now. Unless you guys are seeing something that you can't pass on...........
I'll just show up Monday and see what happens..............
Oh, I'm glad that everyone is ok up north and made it through Ivan ok. I was praying for you!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:02 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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Usually, time answers questions like these, but somehow, more have been created. I haven't seen the 18z runs yet, but somehow I expecting to see the red storm on Jupiter there somehow.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:05 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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The Dvorak really shows Jeanne. Look to the north of the Dominican Republic and Haiti border:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:10 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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Accuweather still shows a radically different track from the NHC:
http://hurricane.accuweather.com/adcbin/...ve&partner=
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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The 18z ETA shows the same thing as the 12z, redeveloping a center off of the Hatteras coast, moving it into N.E. Fla, while doing the Fujiwahra thing with Jeanne, which is well offshore.
The GFS is doing the same thing as 12z, leaving a little piece behind, but taking most of it into the North Atlantic, then getting Jeanne trapped well offshore before it finally moves N.E and out to sea.
In other words, both are consistent with their earlier runs, which don't agree with one another.
Ask me next week what happened, I might be able to tell you.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:12 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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OrlandoDan, that's the track I was referring to. I am soooo confused...............
I did take my plywood down yesterday, but I did leave them on the ground by the windows. I don't know if I'm coming or going.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:20 PM |
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Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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The latest vortex message has flight level winds up to 49 knots...using the 90% rule...doesn't that translate to a 45knot tropical strom...????????????
751
URNT12 KNHC 172210
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 17/2210Z
B. 20 DEG 08 MIN N
71 DEG 47 MIN W
C. NA
D. 40 KT
E. 041 DEG 45 NM
F. 108 DEG 49 KT
G. 041 DEG 045 NM
H. EXTRAP 1000 MB
I. 23 C/ 461 M
J. 24 C/ 459 M
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/01
O. 0.1/5 NM
P. AF977 0511A JEANNE OB 19
MAX FL WIND 49 KT MAX FL WIND 49 KT N QUAD 2131Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:25 PM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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I too have done the exact same. The plywood is leaning up against the house. It was way too depressing with it all up. Whatever, I will keep my eye on jeanne. I fear tornadoes on the N/NE sideof the storm even if it is a CAT 1 at landfall. Who knows. I will watch, listen, and read this board to stay informed.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:26 PM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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yep, and if you watch the IR loop convection continues to fire off to the East of the center... but she looks to be fighting some shear from the SW, and still awful close to land...I think her development might cap off soon unless she can get some distance from the island, and the shear also lets up somewhat...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:37 PM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Jeanne sure is strengthening...even more impressive on the WV loops...wonder what the models will say tomorrow?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:42 PM |
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Jeanne, like Mr. Earl
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Remeber when we had a false alarm with Earl, almsot everyone thought it was going to develop and would makes its way over to Florida but that never happened. Maybe Jeanne could do just that and get out of our way. This one is one doozy of a forecast, hopefully it will just disetergrate into the air from which it came from.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 17 2004 11:47 PM |
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Re: Jeanne, like Mr. Earl
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I have been lurking on this site for years, but only registered recently. I have learned a great deal from the experts on this board. I prefer to listen to figure out what will happen to Jeanne. I place a great deal of confidence in the NHC, but not 5 days out. I don't place any confidence in anything 5 days out for that matter.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:00 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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You got that TUTT right near Jeanne, that should provide some shear for that storm, you can see that LLC and the clouds being connected with the TUTT indicating the prevailing atmospheric flow near there. Until that dies down, that shear is going to be present, it might premantly impair the storm of cyclogenesis, yeah!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:06 AM |
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Re: Jeanne, like Mr. Earl
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O.K. We have really been lucky here on the Ga coast. (about 100 yrs. worth of good luck) This morning it looked like Jeanne might pay us a visit, but now it looks like our Ga luck is still in place. Personally I think she's about run her last race. As for Ivan, even with the models gone haywire, he's history too in my opinion. I guess we will all see soon enough. Just to let you all know: I have really enjoyed this sight and it has been very helpful, not only to me, but hundreds of OTHER lurkers out there. Just thought I'd put my two cents in!
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:13 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Sorry Spock - must have been Agent or someone else I had you confused with. I read 2 threads (hundreds of posts) with only one browser open so that's the error here.
-------------------------------------------------
For the question about Joe B, he is what he is. He's a master of pattern recognition and is a very dedicated tropical forecaster. His columns and videos are worth my $15 a month during tropical season. I got hooked on his take when all that used to be free (pre-2003 season).
FWIW, his current thinking is that Jeanne comes N or NNW slowly for the next few days, stalls, gets forced back WSW and either crosses over or S of FL. He thinks (assuming survival) that it makes Cat 2ish status there. Ivan gets out south of Jersey and creates gales to its north as it comes back down the coast (watch for potential development if the center - still intact - gets out over water). Ultimately Ivan backs SW into the Central Gulf and changes the windflow patterns. Jeanne, meanwhile, makes her hit (or brushby) and then heads round about toward New Orleans ala Andrew, Betsy, & 1947. I don't think he expects Jeanne backing until 5-6 days out, so the threat is really after next weekend.
Steve
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:16 AM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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This is the first Friday in a month I come from work and go to the grocery store and actually walk the aisle and shop without worry if it will spoil.
This month has been hell, I work for a major Home Improvement Store, I order Paint and Hardware, since Charlie I can not get back in stock, I have had grown men cry when I did not have something they needed or wanted, I was so stressed this last month till today I went to the grocery store and was not in a hurry or surrounded by a crowd buying any all things that were not nailed down.
All I really wanted to say is Jeanee can do what she wants this weekend, I am going to relax, check with you all over the weekend, then if needed go back into stress and why do they (the company) think I do not need this or that product and send me things I don't need.
Will take down plywood all the way around the house when the weather is looking good for more than 2 weeks. My husband and I were talking and agreed that it has been really guiet in Central Florida for many years, me being a native and him here since 1972, we both agreed and so did John Wilson on WTVT13 that the next 25 years are going to be active, we have been lucky and will continue to be so if people will not wait till the last minute.
Plan, buy, save and do not return. You may need it next weekend.
Sorry If I went off base, but you all are great, have been a source of well versed post with knowledge I wish I had but learning.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:22 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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No problem...
A lot of tornadoes in the D.C. metro area, and in the watches. One warning mentioned 2 were on the ground, and what roads to avoid. 100 miles east, and it is dry.
If it comes off of the Jersey coast I may get into some of that action.
Look at all of the warnings out there as of 8:21 on the link
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/
This is a post with an expiration date I guess.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:51 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Hope you guys if the D.C area are okay, Tornado outbreak occuring, reports of 3 tornados in the area. Watch out Mr. Spock these things are coming for you.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:26 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I was surprised that NHC did what they did with the forecast. With as much confusion that was out there, it almost seems like it might have been best to keep the prior forecast in place until things settle out. I doubt what they changed to will verify any more then what they had before.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:50 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Jeanne is showing a little westward drift during the last several IR loops... SW shear is pounding her but she's doing her best to fight it off... very determined this gal is..... if this shear were to let up, she'd take off.... her LLC is quite healthy at the moment...
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:00 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Hi Everybody,
Been away for a while also was in the GOM wasn't fun but that is life, I hate to being this up but still have connections with US Navy after 30yrs , some of their models for Navy eyes only shows Jeanne could be going to LA/TX as a Cat3 hit in 7 to 9 days. Old saying never say never.
Dave
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:05 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I agree with you Rasavar, it's not a wise idea to change a forecast admist much confusion. They should stick to one forecast until the remmants of Ivan make more sense to were they're going. Looks like they will first head out to sea following the trough, then they will get caught up in the ridge and move southwest, then have a fujihawara affect with Jeanne, proprelling her to the Carolinas. As Ed said, the north track of the hurricane is very dubious.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:06 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Glad to see ya back Old Sailor... wondering what happened to ya... Joe Bastardi also forecasted a very similar type track to what you are saying the navy has forecasted for Jeanne (I think his was closer to the New Orleans area)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:11 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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A request for the board:
I am a rank amateur when it comes to weather, storms, and such. I can follow a good majority of the posts, but occasionally I come across an acronym I cannot make sense of. Can somebody please post a primer of sorts regarding the most commonly used acronyms (i.e. TUTTS, LLC, etc)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:14 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...???? *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Keith234
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:17 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Quote:
I agree with you Rasavar, it's not a wise idea to change a forecast admist much confusion. They should stick to one forecast until the remmants of Ivan make more sense to were they're going. Looks like they will first head out to sea following the trough, then they will get caught up in the ridge and move southwest, then have a fujihawara affect with Jeanne, proprelling her to the Carolinas. As Ed said, the north track of the hurricane is very dubious (did I use the word correctly LOL). I bet everyone in florida is just pissed off, in my case I would just leave the plywood up and say s**** it and start cursing my head off. On a diffferent note, Rick James died can anyone guess why? LOL
I've been lurking here listening to this pain in the donkey ramble on about nothing at all and try to sound like he knows what he's talking about.
Look, this isn't a game. Ivan has killed about 110 people so far and still counting. People (like me) come to this board for information from reliable, experienced professionals and seasoned weather enthusiasts.
You sound like some punk kid who needs a hobby outside the house. It's great that you're interested, but back off and let the grown ups talk.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:21 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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TUTT=
something Upper Trough something
...at least I tried guys!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:22 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Sorry if I upset you, I know this is very serious and I'm not experincing it. I am by no means a "punk kid" if I was then why would want a hobby talking about weather? Have a nice night and again sorry.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:24 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Quote:
Sorry if I upset you, I know this is very serious and I'm not experincing it. I am by no means a "punk kid" if I was then why would want a hobby talking about weather? Have a nice night and again sorry.
That's ok. By the way it's 40.762 N, 73.3W I was looking it up to come over and give you a swat.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Glad to be back Frank,
To soon to say but the track I seen, looked close to the 1900 #1 hurricane we know what that one did,, thinking on their models is that a high will block, FL and west to LA.
For all we knowJeanne could just die or stay as a TS, Nobody sure what tomorrow will bring. shear and the GOM water temp has drop my area only 82 degrees, it's a wait and see and hope nobody gets nailed, to many have been hurt this year.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:25 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:26 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I think his trash talk was unjustified. Hey unregistered why dont you go elsewhere! You have a serious attitude. lighten up!
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:28 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I wouldnt bother apologizing to him. li phil should delete that one or any of the mods. Terrible attitude!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:30 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I'm not trying to light anyones candle. I use this board because it is the most professional of any I've seen. I really don't care why Rick James died, but I am heart broken and care why all these other people died in the last 24 to 36 hours. I also don't think eaither of these issues should be followed by "LOL".
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:35 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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lots of pros over at storm2k too. go check it out
. storm2k.org.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:39 AM |
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Hello from south AL We got lucky :)
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Just picked up a new generator and just tried the DSL and was shocked to see that it works. We saw 127 mph winds here and 1 twister that split 2 trees in half . 7.44 inches of rain and not much surge. Mobile AL got lucky with this storm cause my friends in the panhadle were not that lucky . James in the 87 degree house
No Power, No water .
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:42 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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You miss the "joke". It was easier to figure out why Rick James died then to figure out where Ivan or Jeanne future tracks and why so many people didn't heed the warnings(Short anwser: Not enough Andrews).
Humor is needed in darkness. It is the light in the darkness. Sometimes people just misunderstand the need for it in the darken time.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:45 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Well put! My thoughts exactly...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:50 AM |
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Hey Ihag....
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here is a simple definition for a TUTT... hope it helps..
TUTT- Tropospheric Upper level Tilted Trough or (Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough). This is an upper level wave that commonly develops in tropical environments along old frontal boundaries or in association with an upper level low.
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:53 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Just a few leftovers from Ivan here in Atlanta......
Still numerous roads under water but the flooding from the Chattahoochee is the thing that everything is talking about....Water was so high that it flooded out most of 6 Flags over Georgia, but they say they'll be open on Saturday, I dunno as what, a water park????
Death toll here in Georgia from Ivan stands at 4 including a 6 year old girl who was swept away by a flash flood in her front yard. They found her body stuck in a drain culvert this morning.
And trees are still falling all over the place. Had one big tree fall across a major throughfare near Emory University and our Fox affiliate.
And next door to me, a neighbor's very LARGE tree fell on his house, but he was alright. Although, when it came down I was awakened by a big whoosh and a shaking sound that shook me out of bed.
Big fear now is downstream of the 'Hooch with flooding and trees falling during a small gust of wind.
BTW, 6" of rain was recorded Thursday from Ivan here in Atlanta.
All those in favor of a nice boring weather week in the Southeast, say Aargh, Matey......
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:56 AM |
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Jeanne back to TS at 11
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winds 45 mph, wnw movement expected
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:58 AM |
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Re: Jeanne back to TS at 11
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Jeanne's a fighter..now lets see what the next chess piece moves.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:59 AM |
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Re: Jeanne back to TS at 11
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The 11pm discussion is one of the strangest I've ever read.
Basicly saying they don't know where the storm is going.
Luckily, Jeanne is a much weakened entity and I doubt she will develop much unless the shear lessens its grip.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 03:01 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Im sorry to hear about all that, especially the child. Im glad youre o.k.! We have property in waynesville N.C and are very concerned with everything up there. IMO thats gods country!
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 03:11 AM |
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New ETA is out
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The new ETA is out to 72 hours, and is coming into better agreement with the GFS. It is shearing out the main part of Ivan, while leaving a little behind over the coastal waters but it does not deepen it like the last 2 runs. It also brings Jeanne up the east side of whatever is left, similar to the GFS.
Now that this agrees with the 18z GFS, I hope that doesn't change radically. Actually, if the GFS maintains continuity, a little more confidence in a forecast is possible. Either way, the ETA now doesn't threaten the US with much if anything, but of course, one's guard cannot be let down. I think these last few weeks have definitely taught us that.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 03:14 AM |
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Re: Jeanne back to TS at 11
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Until Jeanne re-establishes some kind of true identiity, I am unsure any forecast model will grasp her very well. I agree with not making any real changes to the forecast. Maybe tomorrow afternoon the situation will become a little more stable. With the system moving at such a slow speed, there is no urgency to force a forecast towards any particular situation. I doubt there will be a major change by the 5:00am advisory. Maybe the 11:00am will give some insight. I would not be at all surprised to see a return to a similar forecast that we had this afternoon before her encounter with the mountains.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 03:35 AM |
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Re: Jeanne back to TS at 11
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I agree Rasvar...too much going on to make a forecast or a guess. I am very skeptical of her chances.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:10 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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It is not always obvious, but if you read between the lines on the discussions (and on rare occassions it is not even subtle) It is clear that the different forecasters at the NHC do not always agree with each other. So do not expect that as they go from shift to shift over time that they will keep a consistent forecast, and sometimes they even make comments dissing the previous forecast.
They are not machines, they are human beings and they do not always agree. Hurricane forecasting is subjective, so we can't expect anything else. They do a fantastic job given the circumstances.
Everyone wants a perfect answer, they want to know absolultely what will happen to them. That is not reality. Hurricanes will go where they go and if we are lucky we can guess where they might go ahead of time. Expecting anything else is foolish.
Bill
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:19 AM |
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Re: chaos reigns supreme
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Wish I had something to add, but Jeanne is a pathetic looking storm right now. All of the convection is sheared off to the east of the center, which is just hugging the north coast of Haiti. Neither the shear nor the landmass are helping it get any better organized, and I tend to think that the lower pressure & upgrading of the storm is more likely due to a convective burst than anything. I only give it fair odds of surviving long-term, but if it does then there is good potential for it to strengthen...or it could pull a Bonnie. I really don't know.
| darthaggie |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:24 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Quote:
For the question about Joe B, he is what he is.
FWIW, his current thinking is that Jeanne comes N or NNW slowly for the next few days, stalls, gets forced back WSW and either crosses over or S of FL. He thinks (assuming survival) that it makes Cat 2ish status there. Ivan gets out south of Jersey and creates gales to its north as it comes back down the coast (watch for potential development if the center - still intact - gets out over water). Ultimately Ivan backs SW into the Central Gulf and changes the windflow patterns. Jeanne, meanwhile, makes her hit (or brushby) and then heads round about toward New Orleans ala Andrew, Betsy, & 1947. I don't think he expects Jeanne backing until 5-6 days out, so the threat is really after next weekend.
Huh? *boggle* What you've related makes zero (nada, zilch) sense to me.
Ivan's already caught up in the westerlies. When the dry air gets to him (go look at the water vapor imagery, you'll see what I mean), that will complete his conversion to an extratropical system. The door to Florida will be closed by the ridge that will build in behind Ivan's departure. Jeanne will either die in place, or lift out to the northeast, on Ivan's coat tails.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:28 AM |
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Urgent Message Re: Generators!!!!!!!!
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GENERATORS MUST BE OPERATED OUTSIDE!!!
FATALITIES CAN OCCUR IF USED INDOORS!!!
Please remind everyone to use generators outside only. A couple died in Palm Beach and 4 children were hospitalized due to carbon monoxide poisoning after Hurricane Francis. They were all using a generator inside.
and sadly Three elderly women died today in Montgomery, AL from carbon monoxide poisoning while using a generator during a power outage due to Ivan
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:32 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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I never said that they need to keep a consistency from shift to shift. My contention is that to keep making wild changes to the forecast when the models are as chaotic as they have been the last 12 hours does not really serve a useful purpose. I understand there are a lot of differing personalities and ideas. Some that I agree with and others that I don't. There are certain forecasters that I think are slow to change a forecast when warrented. Others seem to be willing to change if they even slightly disagree with it.
I, personally, do not think that wild changes do any good for public confidence in the forecast. Some people do not think that should be a worry of the forecasters. I am not one of those. I will grant that the change that was made was probably the only one that would have seemed reasonable to me. I still think it will not help confidence if the forecast resumes something similar to Friday morning.
It is really a nit pick more then anything.
PS. FWIW, I am not sure that Jeanne will even be a viable tropical entity this time tomorrow. That would pretty much render worrying about future forecast positions moot.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 04:50 AM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Actually I agreee with you, the NHC should have an NHC view of things all the time. But for whatever reason, that is not how it is set up. This is my perspective, and it is very possible I am wrong, but I've nerer seen anything that supports anything else.
Bill
| BeachBum |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 05:07 AM |
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Golssary
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Quote:
Can somebody please post a primer of sorts regarding the most commonly used acronyms (i.e. TUTTS, LLC, etc)
The Meteorological Service of Canada has a nice Glossary . Others may have a better source for you.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 05:55 AM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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A quote from Max Mayfield:
"I don't remember this happening before in such a short period of time," National Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield told reporters, "and the season is only half-over."
It might be a generation before hurricane weather slips back into a quiet phase, he and other experts say.
"The hurricane threat is much greater than it was in the 1970s through early 1990s," said federal meteorologist Stan Goldenberg, who flew around Hurricane Ivan in research aircraft as it approached Mobile, Ala. "It could last another 10 to 40 years."
Can anyone please explain this one?
Here is the article:
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-917hurricanecycle,0,4485692.story?coll=sfla-news-sfla
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 06:18 AM |
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Re: Another day, Another storm
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>>What you've related makes zero (nada, zilch) sense to me.
It's going to take a little bit of time (if it verifies, it will happen late Saturday night or early Sunday morning). Either a piece of the upper energy (low pressure mirroring a trof split), or the whole system is going to get pushed back southward, then Southwestward. There is model support for both ideas. Then again, you can find model support for about 10 other scenarios too. But we're going to have to watch. The 12Z UKMet from Friday kind of showed the scenario at 500 mb.
UK Met 500mb Vorticity
It might not make sense to you, but if you researched the different possibilities (and granted, I don't go around interpreting the 200/500/700mb charts every day), you would have seen the potential for what the UK Met is doing (or was at 12z).
Steve
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:26 PM |
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She's a fighter
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I have to say I did not expect this strong of a fight from her. We may have an upset in the making. She might be able to get the convenction wrapped around and start looking better by this evening. So many scenarios. Interesting comments in the 5:00am discussion about the convection pulling the center north. Seems to be what is happening. Still think it may be around the 11:00PM advisory before the models go from a first graders connect the dots to some semblence of readability. Read JB's comments about Jeanne looping and then coming back wsw later in the period. Not sure what to make of that. Seems a bit crazy; but crazy seems to be the norm this season. Who knows?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:28 PM |
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Re: Is Jeanne Strengthening...????
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Quote:Gosh, I hope the Navy does NOT rely upon Accuweather for it's forecasts!!!!
Glad to see ya back Old Sailor... wondering what happened to ya... Joe Bastardi also forecasted a very similar type track to what you are saying the navy has forecasted for Jeanne (I think his was closer to the New Orleans area)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:46 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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Hate to ask this, but can anyone summarize JB's high protein induced ideas this morning? I mean the last thing I heard was that both entities turn WSW and end up in the GOM. How anyone could say that with a straight face is beyond me, but this has been an unusual season. BTW, Jeanne is looking much better in the last few hours; and she is moving. Cheers!!
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 12:59 PM |
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Skeetobite's forecast wins!
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My husband and I had a big laugh this morning when we looked at NHC's forecast for Jeanne: with it's big "circle of uncertainty" it looked like the tongue-in-cheek forecast that Skeetobite made yesterday!
Skeetobite's forecast can be found on page 8 of this current thread.
And for comparison...HRC's 5-day forecast map
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:00 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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JB has had a really good taste of the limelight recently. I don't think his forecasts are any different they have ever been. He is basing everything he says on weather patterns. Now having said this: The experts are now saying that the weather patterns are changing big time. This means the collective meterological pundits do not now have a good set of data to predict what will happen next. That has been obvious this year. But, on the other hand the data has never been scrutinized to the degree that is now capable, by the viewing media (internet) I have had two friends become obsessed with weather watching this season when I used to get laughed out of the building for talking about weather. This is going to have to be a time where every one stops expecting answers and starts looking and studying because this has not occurred in anyone's life time (last 120 years at least) The records are poor at best and the fisherman's tales make up a lot of what we believed about the weather prior to the invention of research. To come on this site or any other, and pitch a fit because the NHC or any other meterological science based industry can not guess right, is shear idiocy. Any ones observations are valid at this point. Go outside and look into the sky. If you see a cloud, you have made a scientific observation. Enjoy this opportunity as much as possible to be at the ground level of new research about new (to us) weather patterns. The guessing game has never been as exciting as it is now. Don't bash any one!!! No one has the correct answer for sure. Mourn for lost people, don't blame. IT is no one's fault on this mortal plane. There,, I have gotten 300 posts out of my system.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:06 PM |
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Model Run Down and Trends
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I'm just going to do a short overview on some of the main models and their trends.
ETA-has Ivan pushing off the mid-atlantic states and then diving SE to S later on. There is a tilted trough in the west and a high ampltidu ridge in the east. Then by Sunday the movement becomes NE as the ridge digs down.
GFDL- has Jeanne by 26.5N , 57 W by Thursday far away from land.
GFS- has Ivans remmants coming back down to Florida and crossing the Florida peninsula and then back into the GOM. Also, the GFS has Jeanne doinng flips and the next two storms recurving!
NOGAPS- also has Jeanne doing a flip, then heading in the direction of Florida.
The overall trend of the models is now east of the NHC forecast, will they put a flip in their forecast. This is one forecast for the NHC, they have a lot of variables with this one.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:22 PM |
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Re: Model Run Down and Trends
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Keith, I agree. 75% of the models now show Jeanne turning hard to the east, not west toward FL, once it gets somewhere between 26N and 28N... only UKMET is showing an about face and a track toward SE FL.
Be interestting to see if the NHC adjusts it projections eastward at 11:00...
And how about Ivan.. Making some really good progress for a stalled front! They'll be some cyclone case studies coming out of the 2004 season, for sure...
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:23 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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I agree with you totally.As I posted a couple of days ago, think back to the days of the earliest 20th century when a Category 5 was moving in off the coast of Texas and the storm kept getting stronger and stronger until thousands lost thier lives. No advanced warning..no nothing. These people probably just thought it was a thunderstorm moving in...I don't really know. The NHC always puts margins of errors on their forecasts out there but we do live in a time when evryone expects answers right away and those answers had better be right or else. I would fault Accuweather for one thing though and that is to get on national tv and come across to everyone as if their forecasts are written in stone. It's arrogant and irresponsible. For all the defenders of those guys out there I would just say this...I know what I saw and heard when I saw them on Fox and MSNBC and I am entitled to my opinion about them. I may not know much but their website has been deleted from my favorites from here on out. You can have them.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:24 PM |
Re: She's a fighter
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GuppieG--one of the best, well thought out, pertinent and significant posts I have read in a long time. Eloquent in it's simplicity, right to the heart of the matter.
Kudos---agree with you 100%. It's an exciting time, meteorologically speaking.
sc
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: Skeetobite's forecast wins!
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Quote:His forecast maps are great, aren't they? He obviously has a sense of humor too. He did a great depiction of the NHC's uncertainty in their official forecast.
My husband and I had a big laugh this morning when we looked at NHC's forecast for Jeanne: with it's big "circle of uncertainty" it looked like the tongue-in-cheek forecast that Skeetobite made yesterday!
Skeetobite's forecast can be found on page 8 of this current thread.
And for comparison...HRC's 5-day forecast map
Actually, Skeetobite's 'forecast' maps *are*, to the best of his ability, a depiction of the official NHC forecasts transferred to a much more detailed map showing landmarks and roads and other features that help us 'unwashed masses' locate ourselves relative to the forecast track and because of the way he shows the wind fields, it gives one the ability to asses the possible effects of the storm winds for our specific location IF the NHC forecast proves accurate.
I think his maps are a valuable depiction of the fact that storms are not lines of points but a wide *area* of effect, a swath. Too many people think if a storm 'misses' them by a few miles, they are OK....The folks around (and especially to the East) of Mobile will attest to the fact 'it was not just a point of landfall'. Of course, the cente line *is* important as the effects to the right of the path are often much worse than those to the left, sspecially where storme surge is a factor.
Anyway, lest we forget, Skeetobite is not a weather forecaster, but has great talant translating the OFFICIAL forecast from the NHC into pretty and I might add, darned accurate, depictions of that forecast in an easy to understand format.
I think it would be nice if the NHC could hire him, or his firm, to supply them with his maps so they could put them up on their official board. It would also be great if the networks and newspapers would syndicate his depictions when they show the path and discuss the forecast with their viewers and readers.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:30 PM |
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Re: Model Run Down and Trends
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I guess the old saying that you're not safe until it gets north of you might not apply in this particular situation.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:33 PM |
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Re: Skeetobite's forecast wins!
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When I showed my wife one of his maps during Ivan she thought it was awesome. Now when we look she says "Where is the map with the yellow line down the middle?"
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 01:38 PM |
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Re: Model Run Down and Trends
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Thanks, they will prob shift their forecast to the east instead of the west, there's like a cut off line for Jeanne moving west or east. Got to go my powers about to go, very bad thunderstorm.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:05 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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I don't think I can explain Joe B., but I hope him, and one of our local tv mets learned something in this storm, and that is not to represent anything as fact as far as a 5 day forecast.
I must preface by saying I have ties to the NWS as I am a Skywarn Spotter, and I report climate obs (Type A station) also, and have had various contacts with NWS mets for quite a while, and it has given me a great deal of respect for what they do, and how tough their job is. In fact, on an issue, my bias is to side with them. I have disagreed with their forecasts before, and probably will in the future, sometimes that will be right, sometimes not. Fortunately, it is usually not over something as serious as a cat 3+ storm, in which case i always defer to the experts.
Disclaimer out of the way, the WPHL (I think that's their ID) said a few days ago that we would not see any effects whatsoever from Ivan, as a cold front was going to push south (of NJ) and keep it down there. Pittsburgh got 5 inches of rain, Philly suburbs several inches of rain, and numerous tornadoes in S.C. Pa, and N.C Md.
I stated on here that I felt that was an irresponsible report, and I disagreed with it, and gave my reasons, which did verify. His mistake was making a bold forecast with authority when HE DIDN"T NEED TO.
As far as JB, he also DIDN"T NEED TO say cat II or better in S. Fla. for Jeanne in the time frame he did. One of his co-workers was so emphatic on Greta one night, I posted in disgust. I hope they continue to trend away from Fla, and while nothing is resolved definitively, their scenario isn't working out right now.
They have probably gotten more right than I ever have, but it doesn't excuse certain things.
I hope that those mentioned in the above examples learn something from this-1 instance, an all-clear from bad weather was given incorrectly, and the other, a "warning" was given that didn't verify.
The first example is a little more forgivable because the next night he can recant, especially that far out, but example no. 2....
Again, I am doing some venting, if it is not seen as pertinent to the board, feel free to delete......but I do feel a little better.
| Kimster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:15 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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Their drained too...
"000
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS." Ivan?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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This board is good for that type of venting. You said some things worth thinking about.
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:22 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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I'll vent a little more on this subject myself. It seems to me, from what I've seen, that after their first "written in stone" forecast" doesn't verify then there is never an admittance that we were wrong here and here is an updated forecast of what we now believe will happen. It's like it's all just forgotten and they just move on with their new "written in stone" forecast. You see, in my opinion, if you are going to go out on a limb and predict something is going to happen with "absolute authority" then when you are wrong you ought to be able to humble yourself just a little and admit It. Besides, what is so wrong witth putting out an NHC projected path but then saying " Here, in our opinion, is what we believe it will do". Once again, I know what I saw and heard..."This storm WILL hit the US!"...right, Mr. Spock? The fact is...nodody knows.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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that she is. new thread, folks.. direct your comments and ideas over that way.
HF 1428z18september
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:31 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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Quote:
"000
WTNT41 KNHC 180901
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004
THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE
EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN. THE 00Z GFS BREAKS
OFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF
THE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS." Ivan?
Yeah, Ivan is the "King" to this "Pawn"(Jeanne) next move
Quote:
IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS
LIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z NOGAPS
SCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO
CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE
QUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES IN 3-5 DAYS.
and if you think this is going ot go away anytime soon:
Quote:
WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD KEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD SEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL ENTER
TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN
THIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 18 2004 02:34 PM |
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Re: She's a fighter
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absolutely....it's almost as if that if it were never mentioned, it never happened, just like when if you hear a lie often enough, it tends to be believed as truth.
Anyone who has ever written one has been wrong.
That usually has a humbling effect.