Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Mon Sep 20 2004 04:28 AM
The Basin Stays Busy

Early this Monday morning the basin is quite active - literally from Atlanta to Greece. Tropical Storm Jeanne now well north of Hispaniola and plodding north at 8mph. Jeanne has slowly reorganized over the past 24 hours and now has sustained winds near 60mph, however, she still lacks a distinctive core, so any additional intensification should be slow. Movement may be just east of due north and I'm beginning to think that she may remain at a safe distance from Florida. She'll be meandering well to the east for another week, so plenty of time to keep an eye on her.

For technical clarity, the center of the remnants of Ivan are moving west southwest toward Atlanta - and still carrying 30 knots of wind. A piece of that energy (an old outer band?) is racing toward the central Florida coast with gusty winds and showers on Monday.

Major Hurricane Karl in the central Atlantic is heading for Cat IV and is expected to remain at sea.

Tropical Depression 13 is located fairly close to Karl to the east southeast and should become Tropical Storm Lisa on Monday or early Tuesday. Its track is now anticipated to be more westward - as Karl pulls north and northeast, he will regenerate a small ridge between himself and the future Lisa.

And if that isn't enough, I'm wondering if I'm looking at a developing tropical cyclone in the central Mediterranean Sea? They do happen, but rarely! Only visual references are METEOSAT and Navy Eastern Atlantic. I guess that it would be part of the Atlantic Basin - where else would you put it???
ED
Event Related Links
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time

General Links

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

Global SST Animation

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Sep 20 2004 04:33 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Thanks for a new one Ed, we tried but things happen you know.

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 20 2004 05:07 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

In the Med? The world sure is weird this year.

From the previous thread: (and NWS)

Quote:

THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS IVAN




I'm sorry, does Ivan want to be known as some unpronouncable symbol now?

And that BEAR WATCH stuff out of the Houston office...they can't seriously be talking about the appearance of that Russian Bear of a hurricane formerly known as Ivan can they?

'shana


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:39 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Nice to see the site back -- now let's hope we don't end up with 5 systems at once out there! Still don't given the remnants of Ivan much hope, but there is a small low-level circulation around. The wave behind Lisa has a much better shot, though.

And boy, is Lisa a small storm...


Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:41 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Glad to see the site back up tonite.
Rainy day here in Port St. Lucie.with more than four inches so far today at my house. A lot of damaged homes from Frances not at all ready for this kind of rain.
Radar shows a swirl tonite in rain just east of Ft. Lauderdale. Looks like some kind of center might be ready to form over those warm Gulfstream waters, but doubt NHC would recognize it officially until it is into the GOM.
Hurric


Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:45 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Clark, given the conditions around S. Florida today what do you think would be the biggest drawback for something forming when this area moves into the se GOM?

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:22 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Some rain in the N. Orlando area most of the day today.
No wind or lightning, just tropical moisture.

Remnants of Ivan......


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:29 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy





















































































































This board is quiet tonight!

















..........................


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:30 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

no clue why my post is way down at the bottom!!

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:30 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

It has rained here in Port st Lucie almost all day. Right now it is raining very hard and the wind has picked up considerably

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:32 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Wind is really bad here in Kissimmee and also rain.. Hope the plastic on my roof stays on..

DebbiePSL
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:35 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

I hope so too for your sake. I've had enough already. Is all this from ivan?

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:35 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Good to see the site back up, I'll post some of the thoughts I had over the day...

First, one thing that's been consistent across models, from Ivan onward, is the general overestimation of the canadian ridge's effect on the storms. Ivan was supposed to be bumped back completely, yet it drove right past (only losing a small chunk of storm activity we saw in the peninsula today). This same system was supposed to drive Jeanne west, then to only hold it stationary, and now to loop it around. Based on the complete lack of a strong effect on Ivan, I'm really starting to think Jeanne is not going to slow down or loop, but rather zip NE, in close proximity to Karl.

That said, maybe it's time for a poll... how many hours/days until we see some Fujiwhara action? With Jeanne and Karl edging towards each other, Lisa close behind Karl, and the wave behind Lisa being quickly developed in a few models, it seems to me like it's just a matter of time before we get to marvel at these storms mixing with each other.

Should be a fun, hopefully harmless week of hurricane watching


BillD
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:06 AM
Attachment
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

NRL Monterey has listed the circulation that is now moving more or less over Ft. Lauderdale as an invest. As well as the wave behind Lisa. Going to get busy here soon.

Also I grabbed this image of the system in the Mediterranean that Ed was talking about. Right now it doesn't look so good, but this sure looks like a tropical system to me.

Bill


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:16 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Shear -- 30kt -- as well as a bunch of dry air to the north of the storm. The trough to the west is eventually going to push east, at least to some degree, which won't aid any development. Plus, there's just not much there...there's a small low-level circulation and a small amount of upper energy, but that's it. SSTs in the Gulf haven't recovered from the first go-around either...though are at least still marginal.

Bottom line...I still think whatever this is, Ivan or not, doesn't have a great shot.

The Mediterranean storm is probably a hybrid system, maybe a subtropical depression/storm, but nothing very strong. Might try to see if I can get a phase analysis done on it tomorrow.


Hurric
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:46 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Thanks Clark, I always look forward to reading your posts. They always seem well thought out and easy to understand, which is Helpful for those who are trying hard to take our knowledge of weather to a higher level.
When the wind is gusty and it has been raining off and on all day it is easy to get the feeling that something is forming.
I took a look and can see the shear and dry air. Makes it easy to see why it would be a long shot to amount to much. But who knows, in a season like this almost anything seems possible.
Hurric


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:49 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Glad site is back up. OZ models coming in,,,, first couple models showing now a turn to the W and hitting or brushing Freeport Bahama and threatning Florida and the SE coast. GFS is still the outliner but does not take her out till after 96 hours,,,meantime it has her wander around 68-70W. I have not seen the UKMET yet and that was the model that kept her moving back to the west the most.
Son of Ivan remenents will continue to the western gulf over the next 3days. Trough should bypass the system to the north and might push it down to the Bay of Campeache but that is 5 days out as it could just as well move into Mexico or Texas. If it does move south it will be in a good area to develop during the upcoming weekend. Karl will pull just a tad more NW and be closer to 54W and head N and increase speed feeling the trough,,,,Lisa I wont comment on yet, but I highly doubt she will have any affect on the US. Right now from Sept 20th on.. anything that is north of 18N and east of 65W and moving more then wnw will be picked up by the westerlys that generally move down more often to near 20-25N. A system would generally have to be under 15N and be moving W towards the western carribean to be in a good position to come NW and threaten the eastern gulf.


Second Shift
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:17 AM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Glad you guys are back up! Question-is all of this tropical activity the reason the weather in Iowa has been so boring lately (80-85 degrees, sunshine virtually every day the last 3 weeks). Any fronts have given us a look see, then fallen apart!

-------------------------------------------------------

Corndogs for everyone! Go Hawkeyes!


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 10:53 AM
The ghost of Ivan continues

At 630 am EDT weather service Doppler radar indicated rainfall amounts between 4 to 6 inches with isolated 6 to 8 inches have fallen between Boynton Beach and Delray Beach from the training showers and thunderstorms. Law enforcement has also reported that A1A between Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... and the intersection at Linton and Congress were impassable as cars were being flooded.

Additional rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches can still occur with the training showers and thunderstorms over these areas during the next hour or so. Therefore... a urban flood advisory has been extended to include all of Palm Beach County until 815 am EDT.


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 01:14 PM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues

Miss a day and things stay the same. Only thing I do know is that I heard in a phone interview that the NHC said if the remnants of Ivan become a system, it would be renamed becuase it is not the full system that was Ivan. Might be old news here.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 21 2004 01:36 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Hey all, I'm back, lots to catch up on, but I am fixing some of the things that broke while I was gone, and the new hardware should be in later this week.

More to come, but will be slow for a bit.


rickonboat
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 01:59 PM
survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

The destruction in Mobile is more a nuisance than anything. My boat completely survived, but the Marina sustained some moderate damage to the roof, and had about 4 huge trees fall over. Amazing that at around 2:00 AM, we figured we were toast, and it dogged right and hit Gulf Shores. Destruction there and in Pensacola was phenomenal. Probably as close to cat 4 type destruction as you can get, without calling it a cat 4 cane.

We are still without power, probably still more than half of the city. Pensacola is another story, as is Gulf Shores, and all the coast along that area. Lots of condos, the older ones...are toast. and some new ones are leaning, and will be condemned. With all the damage, the resolve is to build back better and stronger. Which means, inevitably, there will only be huge towering conrete edifices all along the coast. The quaint single residence just can't survive the long haul....


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:06 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Glad you made it through ok rick.
------------------------------------------
Clark, JB said the last 3 FSU superensemble runs bring Jeanne into the Gulf. I don't buy the scenario (don't think he does either). But out of curiosity, how far west does it bring her?

Steve


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:22 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Rick, welcome back, I agree with your assessment as well, and I would also point out that Ivan brought with him at least a Cat 4 storm surge... the surge and waves were incredible... and did trememdous damage... reminds me somewhat of the damage associated with Camille's surge.... Ivan just didn't cause the wind damage that Camille had, but its surge was very impressive to say the least

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:37 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

I think that estimates of storm damage will have to change according to the surface areas and angles which may change the classifications of storm intensities down the line. Estimating effects on land masses according to old standards of measurements do not seem to tell the tale anymore. I noticed this year that no matter what the level of the hurricane has been declared, the damage seemed to imply a higher classification. I don't know if this is the conservatism of the officials or if it is the interaction with the storm and the land structures that are causing this. I have yet to hear that " there was not that much damage" compared to the storm classification. It has been the other way around continuously. Not a conspiracy suggestion, a weather phenomenon I am questioning.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 02:50 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Southeast coast is back in "cone" for Jeanne... although to my untrained eye it looks like one big circle to me.

Thoughts anyone?


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:25 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Great to hear... Sorry to lean offtopic, but might I ask, what direction was that marina exposed to in relation to the wind? And did you secure your boat in a marina slip, or did you anchor out?

I ask because my family runs a marina north of Palm Beach, and we lost use of all 3 docks from moored boats in the area getting blown in (otherwise there was only a foot or two of surge, no structural wind damage). All the boats usually at our marina were taken to safe harbor, but five sail and power boats were blown in and sunk around (under and on top of) our docks. Only one boat in the nearby (unregulated) anchorage stayed secure, even some boats with 6 or more anchor lines broke free (they estimate 150 moored boats in the immediate area are aground or sunken). Most in other marina slips left, but those that remained took heavy damage or sank in the slips, or in some cases had the docks disintegrate around them leaving the boat moored to pilings surrounded by water.

We're on the east side of the ICW, so we were constantly exposed to the west wind as the storm passed north of us. How'd you fare in relation?


Storm Cooper
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:33 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Yo rick(still)onboat.... glad to hear you came out of that OK.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 03:36 PM
Question for Mike or John C...

I was gonna drop a ten or fifteen spot donation, but I couldn't find the link to a paypal payment option. Do you have one or do you guys just want checks?

Thanks,

Steve


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:12 PM
Re: Question for Mike or John C...

It's at the bottom of the main page now, not emphasizing it as much but will still be there. I did get the new hardware today, but it probably won't be until the weekend til I get time to set it up... It's nice.

Thanks all. Once that is up the thankyou page will go up as well.


June from Port Orange
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:12 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

Interesting reading...and it's free

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:14 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

How do you get to it? THe only one I saw was archived from last year.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:19 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

The Superensemble doesn't take the storm into the Gulf. For one, it doesn't go out that far -- it only goes as far as they run it and no more -- which is usually 5 days. The last few runs I saw were much like the other models...confused, lacking definitive movement any which way.

CarolinaGurl
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:28 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

go here for the free column of JB today only Joe's Free Column

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:55 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

Cool stuff. Not really worth $.50 a day to me yet, and I still disagree with Accuweather's stance on the NHC, but I quite like it.

Terry Johnson
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 04:58 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

In Joe's discussion, suppose the low pressure area that is the remnant of Ivan were to develop as it moves westward and becomes a tropical depression, storm, what would its name be?? Anyone?

tpratch
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:00 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

Either Ivan or Matthew

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:02 PM
Re: The Basin Stays Busy

Welcome Back Mike. We missed you for sure!

BeachBum
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:04 PM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues

Quote:

Only thing I do know is that I heard in a phone interview that the NHC said if the remnants of Ivan become a system, it would be renamed becuase it is not the full system that was Ivan.



It also would not be a completely new system. I think ignoring Ivan in the name would be a mistake. Why not Ivan2 or Ivanov/Ivanova?


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:04 PM
Ivan's Return

Been looking over things just west of Florida this morning and it appears Ivan is making an attempt at a comeback. Looks like it is making an attempt at a LLC at around 25.72N 83.88W. Convection is also starting to crank up a bit. So...any thoughts on TD Ivan in 24 hours or so?

*note: I am as amature as they come and I'm just enjoying a moment of looking at something else while we have 3 real storms to watch.


DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:05 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Rick
Good to see you back, we have been watching to see you log back on with news. Sure glad you and your boat are fine!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:06 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Quote:

Been looking over things just west of Florida this morning and it appears Ivan is making an attempt at a comeback. Looks like it is making an attempt at a LLC at around 25.72N 83.88W. Convection is also starting to crank up a bit. So...any thoughts on TD Ivan in 24 hours or so?

*note: I am as amature as they come and I'm just enjoying a moment of looking at something else while we have 3 real storms to watch.





Is the potential LLC on the east or west side of Florida right now?


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:12 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

it is west of Florida

It is entirely possible that by Thursday we could have five named storms in the Jeanne, Karl, Lisa; the remnamts of Ivan have about a 40% chance of developing, and the wave east of Lisa has a 70% chance of developing


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:14 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Since I know nothing about weather watching or storm predicting or trofs and ridges I'm fascinated by all this. Living in central FL has made me almost dependent on this site. Tell me if I got this straight:

This season is insane, virtually anything goes and I wont know if I need to "hunker down" until about 1 day before the storm and even then it could jump around us and we not even see rain? I know hurricanes aren't 100% predictable, but it seems like there is even less ability to figure them out this year than normal...I just wish I understood it all better so I could enjoy the thrill and challenge of it all...very interesting! Thank you all!


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:16 PM
Med. Storm?

Someone mentioned a possible Storm in the Med. Sea. Any further information on it?

Thanks!
Mark
Falcons 2 - 0, 4 - 1 with Vick, 4 - 10 without Vick.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:16 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Looking at the visible loop, it looks to me that there's some circulation now off the SW FL coast. At the same time, it looks like the wave behind Lisa has some spin too. Wonder which one will get named first...

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:19 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Yea, certainly west of Florida basically about 100 miles due west of Naples. That wave you speak of east of Lisa has t-numbers of 1.5. Has some nice cold cloud tops - just looks like it needs to get its act together just a bit more. Anymore it seems like anything that comes off Africa just automatically becomes a storm..

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:21 PM
Re: Joe's Daily Column is free today

It should be renamed...this is not the same vortex but is some of the energy, as I understand it...could be wrong though

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:26 PM
Re: Med. Storm?

I was looking at the Sat's from the Med and it looks like something tried to spin up but didn't have time before it ran into Greece. At this rate we should have our first cyclone in the artic ocean soon. What would we call them? Frigidcanes? Icecones maybe?

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:27 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Radar confirms that loction...but I doubt it is closed low more like a wave open on the southeast,
the system behind Lisa was "tumbling " when it came off the coast, and its large!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:29 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

what ever it is the remenants are definity spinning..

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.ktbw.shtml

I wonder if this will become Matthew.


Ormond Suzie
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:29 PM
Re: The ghost of Ivan continues

"It also would not be a completely new system. I think ignoring Ivan in the name would be a mistake. Why not Ivan2 or Ivanov/Ivanova? "

Ivanovich means "son of Ivan" - so that would be appropriate. LOL. I believe I understand from earlier discussions of this question, though, that it would get a new name.


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:31 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

I agree - the isn't closed circulation yet...but it sure is trying. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. Nice that it is happening where we can watch with radar.

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:40 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

>>> I wonder if this will become Matthew?

There's a name that will bring back some bad board memories.

------------

rickonboat: Great News (for you)! A number of posters were quite worried you hadn't checked back in.

Had to go to a meeting all morning, just getting in now. Wow, we have three named storms presently, with a strong chance to have three hurricanes by tomorrow! We could also have Matthew & Nicole by the next couple of days. Un-be-friggin-lievable!

At least it looks like the models have come into agreement with Jeanne...GFS...hmmmmm...

Interesting thought by scottsvb on Lisa. I think it's a little too early to write her off, especially this season. She's such a small storm, she may just be able to make it across the pond. System behind her looks real promising now.

Didn't read JB today, but since it's free, I won't have to post his thoughts...that's my next stop.

Gotta delve into the tropics in a little while...amazing how much one misses this site when it goes down. Thanks MIKE for everything you do!


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:42 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Anyone know the possibility of Lisa taking a similar path to Ivan? The forecasters keep commenting on how far south she is as was Ivan. I was just curious if I need to keep a watchful eye on her or if she will get swept away with Karl.

Also, to the person who asked about the "one day rule" of hunker down - after going through Bonnie, Charley, Francis and outter bands of Ivan - if I am in a cone - I will be hunkered down for good! No chance in heck I won't be prepared for any other hurricane after Charley! Like with Ivan, we waited till it was past our area and still heading North before we took a sigh of relief.

Also, I read that they think we will be in this pattern for hits for approximately 10-40 years! Is this really possible and where is our normal protection? Just curious.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:43 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

I think it should be renamed if it desreves storm status just because of the ramifications of using "Ivan" now one of the classic modern storms.
Besides what went over Florida was hardly a storm and not even a TD level if it was a closed low which I doubt as stated earlier.
I guess if the NHC can somehow track the original vortex from landfall to the Florida East coast yesterday, then perhaps it could be Ivan the Resusciitated... but a new name would be my recommendation if that comes to pass.

Also Can Lisa survive???Right now it looks ragged...being slapped around by big brother Karl and seems to be nearly out run by the large system behind it...they can't be more that 250-300 miles apart and it looks as if the gap is closing?


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:47 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

Quote:

I just wish I understood it all better so I could enjoy the thrill and challenge of it all...very interesting! Thank you all!


First, welcome aboard.

I think that *everyone*, from the experts at NHC to the pros like Jason K to the 'learned' that visit this forum so oten, certainly me, all feel the same "I wish I understood it all better". Every storm has its' challanges and thrills, but this year has been both a little too challanging and way too 'thirlling' for most of us. At least, back in '59 with Camille, I *ONLY* had to worry about her, not Charley, Frances and her wayword offspring, Ivan the terrible. ...and to have a bastard step-son of Ivandevellop and possibly threaten us again is almost intollerable. I have had more rain from this 'bastard' wannabe storm in the last day and a half than I have had since Frances came by, total and the winds here in Orlando are 'fresh' to say the least. And that is just a 'renant'.

So, yes, we would all like to know and understand more....hang in there


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:48 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

10-40 years of a pattern...lets hope not...today a friend of mine and I are already lamenting next years homeowners insurance changes...if we even get renewed...and we did not have any damage, yet!...After Andrew the casualty insurance industry went through huge changes in assessing risk, many companies quit writing in Florida and the deductible patterns have increased each year. Look for 15k as an average of deductible next year (just a gut opinion).

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:48 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Quote:

I think it should be renamed if it desreves storm status just because of the ramifications of using "Ivan" now one of the classic modern storms.
Besides what went over Florida was hardly a storm and not even a TD level if it was a closed low which I doubt as stated earlier.
I guess if the NHC can somehow track the original vortex from landfall to the Florida East coast yesterday, then perhaps it could be Ivan the Resusciitated... but a new name would be my recommendation if that comes to pass.

Also Can Lisa survive???Right now it looks ragged...being slapped around by big brother Karl and seems to be nearly out run by the large system behind it...they can't be more that 250-300 miles apart and it looks as if the gap is closing?




Doug, I agree with you on both points. "IF" something should become of the circulation off Naples it should not be named Ivan.

Also, I think Lisa is going to have a hard time keeping it together. We shall see.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:52 PM
Re: Ivan's Return

Quote:

10-40 years of a pattern...lets hope not...today a friend of mine and I are already lamenting next years homeowners insurance changes...if we even get renewed...and we did not have any damage, yet!...After Andrew the casualty insurance industry went through huge changes in assessing risk, many companies quit writing in Florida and the deductible patterns have increased each year. Look for 15k as an average of deductible next year (just a gut opinion).




If we are lucky they will only go up that high. Pre-Andrew I was at 560/year. 11 years later I'm paying 3400/yr not counting flood. Add on a 5% ded on top of that and its sick. I need 25-30k damage before I even think about calling in a claim.


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:54 PM
Re: survived because of a one degree dogleg right at the last minute...whew!

I don't think I'm asking too much..I just want to at least be able to understand terms being used. I checked out the glossary page and it is missing a lot of terms I would like to understand. Those 3 letter acronyms thrown around for one thing... SST? LLC? or whatever. I will say tho I have learned a lot and now to my friends and coworkers think I know a lot which is funny but I'll take what I can get. I work at Florida Hospital so I'd really like to know if I'm going to have to pack for 3 days for the next storm ahead of time but I guess mother nature just doesn't want to abide by my wishes...

Ivan hanging a U turn and coming back down and now in the GOM (one acronym I figured out ) seemingly spinning is just amazing to me. I guess I shouldn't be so excited about potentially fatal storms but man are they fun to watch...

Mike I'll donate again when I get paid this week. I just don't feel like I've donated enough. Thank you all!


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:55 PM
Jeanne-retirement after the season?

After seeing the death count in Hispaniola, most of which was in Haiti (they can't catch a break this year), I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as well as the three we know are already gone. The unnamed TS (in my opinion) in May already extracted quite a toll, this just adds to the misery.

Now she may threaten US shores. Haven't we all had enough already...

Could you imagine if the son of Ivan reforms and hits the panhandle? Good god.


clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:57 PM
Re: Med. Storm?

sno-cone anyone?

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 05:59 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

After seeing the death count in Hispaniola, most of which was in Haiti (they can't catch a break this year), I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as well as the three we know are already gone. The unnamed TS (in my opinion) in May already extracted quite a toll, this just adds to the misery.

Now she may threaten US shores. Haven't we all had enough already...

Could you imagine if the son of Ivan reforms and hits the panhandle? Good god.




I think Jeanne, Ivan and Charley will be retired. I'm not sure about Frances

It does show you that a TS can be just as deadly as a Hurricane.


clueless
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:05 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

How many names typically get retired in a year? I know there is nothing typical about this year, but it almost seems like it would be easier to just come up with a whole new batch (Hey maybe that is it - the ocmbinations of names have caused... Oh never mind)

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:09 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Jeanne wont be retired unless it reaches a cat 3 which I feel will happen off the eastern U.S.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:09 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Maybe it's just this batch, the same from which Andrew and Mitch among others were drawn

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:13 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Jeanne wont be retired unless it reaches a cat 3 which I feel will happen off the eastern U.S.




I disagree. One of the factors for retirement is loss of life. I fear those numbers may hit 1000 before all is said and done. If that doesn't qualify for retirement they should stop the retirement process.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Ivan's Return vs Mitch

Don't see how they (nhc) can use that arguement when they brought back Mitch days later from some leftover rain.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:16 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

just read the NHC tropical discussion and that casts doubt on good ole Jeanne and it continued intensification called it ragged and exposed to verticle shear...
It did not even mention son of Ivan per se except to call it a low off Naples subject to westerly shear caused by an ULL over the Bay of Campeche...called the moisture line feeding into that low from the vicinity ot Jeanne a "front" (trough)...
I don't think this was the best discussion I've ever read.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:21 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Did anybody notice if there was much of a pressure change as the circulation crossed Florida?

Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:25 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

The buoy located near the convective blob off the coast of Naples has had some lower pressures today. Right now it's at 1012mb and dropping in the last hour.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:29 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I don't have my own weather station up (yet), but HERE is Richie's data in Boynton from yesterday. You can see it trending down in the few days leading up to yesterday, and it bottomed out mid-afternoon (still above 1009 millibars). It's been slowly creeping up since then, but definitely seems to have been associated with the remnants passing back over the peninsula.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:30 PM
HPC/TPC?

Question about the HPC discussion below, which takes Jeanne fairly close to NC: What is the relationship between HPC and TPC...looks like they coordinate with other, but the HPC goes out 7 days??
THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN LOOKING VERY MUCH LIKE THE PREFERRED MODEL
SOLN FROM THE PRELIM PROGS. DID NOT MAKE SIG CHANGES TO THE
TIMING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE CONUS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TWO
TROP SYSTEMS. THE NOGAPS IS TRENDING WEAKER BUT CONSIDERABLY
SLOWER WITH THE UPR TROF OVER THE CNTRL CONUS EARLY IN THE PD
WHILE THE CAN GLOB IS TRENDING STRONGER AND SLOWER BY DAY 3/FRI.
THE TIMING OF THIS TROF WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE THE TRACK/TIMING OF
BOTH HRCN JEANNE AND THE REMNANTS OF IVAN IN THE GOMEX. WITH BOTH
OF THESE MODELS TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE TROF...ONE WOULD THINK A
STRONGER SOLN WOULD WIN OUT...BUT BOTH MODELS ALLOW THE TROF TO
LIFT OUT AND SEND JEANNE TO THE S OF THE H5 RIDGE INTO THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL POINTS FROM THE UKMET SEND THE
SYS WELL OUT TO SEA BY DAY 6/MON...WITH A PSN AT 33.2N 70.0W...AND
THE 12Z GFS STILL REFUSES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF 70N. THE
OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF THRU DAY 5/SUN
WHICH WAS AMPLIFIED AND HAD A SIMILAR TIMING TO THE 00Z
GFS...ALLOWING JEANNE TO THE PICKED UP BY THE TROF. THE 06Z NCEP
ENS MEAN ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT STILL REASONABLY
STRONG...H5 RIDGE APPROACHING JEANNE. THE ULTIMATE SOLN...WHICH
WAS AGREED UPON DURING COORD WITH TPC...ALLOWED FOR A MUCH MORE
WLY SOLN THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AFTER DAY 6/MON...BUT DOES NOT TAKE
THE SYS ONSHORE ON DAY 7/TUES. THIS MORE CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE
IDEA OF THE PRELIM PROGS WHICH WERE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 00Z
GFS AND THE SLOWER NCEP ENS MEAN SOLN.

THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN GOMEX ATTM. THE MANUAL PROGS REFLECT COORD
WITH TPC.


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:31 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Here is a plot of the wind speed and pressures found at that buoy off the coast of naples. Certainly something going on there. Steady drop in pressure and steady increase in sustained winds. 25kn now..

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:32 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?

TPC hands the storm off to HPC when it becomes extratropical or a remnant low.

scott...where do you see Jeanne becoming a CAT III and do you foresee a US strike?


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:36 PM
T numbers

1800Z T numbers for Invest 93 are 2.0/2.0 (though as a disclaimer I've read that the T numbers are notoriously unreliable for weak and new systems...) just an FYI.

Mark


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:36 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I would say it is an absolute certainty that Jeanne will be retired. Here is a comment from the FAQ on the NHC's site about name retirement.

Quote:

In the Atlantic basin, tropical cyclone names are "retired" (that is, not to be used again for a new storm) if it is deemed to be quite noteworthy because of the damage and/or deaths it caused




Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:39 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

T-Numbers on that system behind Lisa are up to 2.0. Looks like we may have TD14.

As for Ivanovich...looks like the tops are getting sheered right off so it may have to wait..


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:40 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Did anybody notice if there was much of a pressure change as the circulation crossed Florida?




I am not a weather "professional" but would the horrible pressure in my head that came on late yesterday through this morning be any sign of the pressure dropping in that storm? It was horrible. I had the same during Charley just before it passed right over us. It came on so quickly and so strong, it hurt to open my eyes. Would those weather patterns have that kind of effect?

____________
Katie


Staggy
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:44 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as




Unless I am mistaken, its the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) that decides whether to retire a name. Any country that has had a major impact by a storm can request that a name be retired.


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:44 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Quote:

Did anybody notice if there was much of a pressure change as the circulation crossed Florida?




I am not a weather "professional" but would the horrible pressure in my head that came on late yesterday through this morning be any sign of the pressure dropping in that storm? It was horrible. I had the same during Charley just before it passed right over us. It came on so quickly and so strong, it hurt to open my eyes. Would those weather patterns have that kind of effect?

____________
Katie




Katie

Depending on the person, yes. Any change in pressure up or down can produce headaches. I've had one since yesterday. I live just outside FTL. Outside these storms we get very little pressure change during this time of year.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:47 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

>>> T-Numbers on that system behind Lisa are up to 2.0. Looks like we may have TD14.

NRL still has 93L & 94L, so probably no new TDs at 5:00.


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:48 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Yea, I just saw that myself...ah well guess we wait around to see what happens at 11.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:53 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?

I realize the hand-off, but there is a piece before that where the HPC model contains projections beyond the normal 5-day TPC predictions...the storm approaching Cape Hatteras on this link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

Is this 7th day forecast a TPC or HPC prediction?


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 06:57 PM
Retirement of names

Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be “retired” by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms.

There is an exception to the retirement rule, however. Before 1979, when the first permanent six-year storm name list began, some storm names were simply not used anymore. For example, in 1966, “Fern” was substituted for “Frieda,” and no reason was cited.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 07:04 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

How hurricane names are retired


http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/retiram.html


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 07:06 PM
Re: Retirement of names

Not asking too much:

For the explanations, you're going to have to google search some of this stuff, but here's off the top of my head:

SST - Sea Surface Temperature
SSTA - Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (departures from normal based on "x" years)
ULL - Upper Level Low
MLC - Mid Level Circulation
LLC - Low Level Circulation
TUTT - Tropical Upper Troposphereic Trough
MJO - Madden-Julian Oscillation (1 "L" or 2?)
AO - Artic Oscillation
SOI - Southern Oscillation Index
PDO - Pacific Decadal Oscillation
QBO - Quasi-biennial Oscillation

If you can think of any more, PM me and I'll try to get you answers.
--------------------------------------------------------
Thanks Clark. JB must have been referring to an inhouse Accuweather model.
-------------------------------------------------------
As for the $0.50 a day comment, his column was low key today in comparison to what you usually get. You also get about 20 kinds of radar, forecast models and 2 or 3 daily streaming videos from Joe which pictoralize his commentary.

Steve


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 07:28 PM
love this view of ivan

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...g&itype=vis

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 21 2004 07:45 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Quote:

After seeing the death count in Hispaniola, most of which was in Haiti (they can't catch a break this year), I'm wondering if NHC will retire Jeanne this year as well as the three we know are already gone. <snip>





I think Jeanne, Ivan and Charley will be retired. I'm not sure about Frances <snip>





I read earlier this year that "Frances" was already scheduled for retirement before the hurricane formed. France asked and was granted the request.

Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

I was wondering about Gaston retirement myself.

And I think I saw somewhere something about large death tolls in Haiti don't automatically cause hurricane name retirement. Sad.

'shana


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 08:01 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

>>> Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

And Frances in German means "welcome".


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 08:10 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

>>> Frances in Spanish means 'France' and the French didn't want any confusion.

And Frances in German means "welcome".


...and Fances was neither French or Welcome in my neck of the woods and I suspect any other woods you might point to.

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 08:17 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I can personally confirm this - my wisdom teeth, which bother me on occasion and eventually need to come out, were driving me nearly to tears for the duration of Frances. It wasn't extremely low of course, but I'm guessing it was the duration.

And Steve, I made sure to include a 'yet' for just that reason. If the forecasts I see start solidifying, and moreso if I don't hear any more talking-down about the NHC, I just might make the investment next season (hopefully by then I'll be a less-poor-than-I-am-now college student).


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 08:17 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

...but before Jeanne can retire, we have to deal with the fact she is still out there, alive and kicking up a fuss and lot of confusion.

Looking at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ATL_11L.JEANNE_ssmi_gif_full.html
I can start to fear, worry about or at least note a perceived trend developing with her forecasts. There seems to be a growing trend to point North Westerly in her future path. Many of the models, while very undecided, seem to show a tendency toward the NW. I know it is *way* too early to call a landfall, but IF this *is* a trend Phil, you may have a female visitor in your area, and not the one with the fulll lips you'd hope to be getting a visit from.


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 08:24 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

>>> I know it is *way* too early to call a landfall, but IF this *is* a trend Phil, you may have a female visitor in your area, and not the one with the fulll lips you'd hope to be getting a visit from.

I only want that visitor if it is to spare Fl. another hit. That's why I asked scottsvb (who predicted CAT III strength) where and when he anticipated that...

Today being the anniversary of the Long Island Express, aka Great New England Hurricane, (for interesting reading, click here), this is THE prime time for these bad boys and girls to make an appearance up further north...


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:02 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Most models have been trending further north, even the GFDL. The UKMET and the NOGAPS have had it consitently landfalling in the Outer Banks area. I saw that article in the newspaper too, and I agree with LI phil; I only want a hurricane if it would was going to hit Florida. Maybe this could be another LI hurricane, I'm optimistic and I have to weigh that in comparison to some other things. If the ridge breaks down and propgates westward, then I think we're spared but if doesn't proprogate at all, and erodes then were in for a rude awakening. Once the possible scenario comes into play, all us LIers will be seeing a media hype beyond belief!

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:03 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?

The HPC and TPC both track storms while over water and come up with separate track forecasts on their own. The TPC points are the one everyone is familiar with; the HPC progs. are not as widespread but are reflected in their forecasts. They predicted Frances would travel a bit further west than the NHC did, for instance, even though they didn't pan out with that forecast.

Both groups get the chance to put out their points during the 6-hrly conference calls (4 & 10 am & pm), but the TPC has the final say for the general public. And, once inland and no longer a tropical threat, the NHC turns things over to the HPC, something they've started doing a bit more frequently (and quickly) over the past year or two.


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:05 PM
other storms

Gloria was another late September storm to hit the northeast back in 1985--Sep 27

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:06 PM
Re: HPC/TPC?

Thanks for the explanation,

LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:07 PM
Make that 1985...

Rabbit, you type to fast...1985...believe me I REMEMBER that one...

whoops, you caught that just after I submitted this post...sorry.


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:12 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Most models have been trending further north, even the GFDL. The UKMET and the NOGAPS have had it consitently landfalling in the Outer Banks area. I saw that article in the newspaper too, and I agree with LI phil; I only want a hurricane if it would was going to hit Florida. Maybe this could be another LI hurricane, I'm optimistic and I have to weigh that in comparison to some other things. If the ridge breaks down and propgates westward, then I think we're spared but if doesn't proprogate at all, and erodes then were in for a rude awakening. Once the possible scenario comes into play, all us LIers will be seeing a media hype beyond belief!


I am aware of the significance of this date with regard to hurricanes in the north east. With that said, all I can say is that I hope and pray that NO ONE is hit by another storm this year...not even to prevent it from hitting Floriday again would I wish it somewhere else.

I've lived throug many major storms including Camille and recent experience with Charliey and Frances and was worried sick about Ivan armed with my knowledge of how my mobile home would likely withstand even a weakened Ivan.

I often frequent other boards, come back here because I think it is the best of the pack, but found a post that really hit home: I'd like to share it with you.



September 15, 2004
Dear Family and Friends,
I am sure you are all anxious to hear about our experiences
concerning
Hurricane Ivan which destroyed Grand Cayman Island. It was a
nightmare,
an
unbelievable time. No one was prepared for the viciousness of Ivan,
even
all the Caribbean people who go through these often. This was the
worst
recorded hurricane ever to hit the Cayman Islands, # 5 in severity
with
200
mi/hr winds traveling at 8 mi/hr. (hurricanes are usually 24 mi/hr).
As our building was hurricane safe and off the ocean, Norm and I
decided
to
stay in our condo. All the windows were boarded over with large
sheets
of
plywood. We prepared ourselves with drinking water, snacks,
flashlights,
plenty of batteries and candles and settled down for the night. This
was
Sat. Sept 11. (Ironic)
The winds started to really pick up around midnight and proceeded in
intensity throughout the night. Around 5AM we were awakened by the
sound of
water. We realized water was poring in from our boarded up windows
and
within 30 minutes were up to our knees in water. We started putting
our
belongings that were on lower shelves up on counters and our
dressers,
etc.
We lit our candles and settled down to watch the storm, radio on to
listen
to any updates on the storm.
By 7 AM the water was up to midthigh and we had lost all radio
contact.
Norm and I were now sitting on our kitchen counters to keep dry.
Our
furniture was floating around by this time. The storm was viciously
howling
outside and we watched as the palm tree fronds were being blown off
the
trees one by one. At 8AM we watched our grape tree go down along
with
all
the other trees in our front yard. The water continued to rise. At
10AM
we
noticed our door start to bow inward with the rise of water outside.
Before
we realized what was happening the front door burst in with a surge
of
water
(6foot wave). Norm and I made a dash for the guest bedroom and
climbed
upon
the bed that was now floating. We had just made it onto the bed
when we
noticed the ceiling starting to shake and realized it was
collapsing.
We
made it to the guest bathroom, sitting on an end table we had place
on
the
bathroom sink. There we sat and waited for 5 hours as we watched the
water
continue to rise. When standing, the water was mid chest level. I
was
wearing a life-jacket, as we knew if it raised much more we would
have
to
try and swim out to reach the upper condo. After about 2 hours the
end
table we were sitting on collapsed (particle board does not hold up
well
submerged for 2 hours in brown sewage/seawater) sending us into the
water.
We found 2 Rubbermaid containers floating and were able to get those
up
on
the sink to sit on to wait out the rest of the hurricane. One of the
things
they tell you is not to leave your dwelling under any circumstances,
you
are
safer to stay in side your home rather than try and get out as then
you
are
exposed openly to the elements. I should mention when the surge
burst
through the door it swept everything that we had stored on the
counters
and
dresser tops off into the fast flowing water out the front door. We
lost
everything, including our candles, flashlights and drinking water.
Our
fridge, stove, washer and dryer were floating. The water started to
subside
around 5PM and we were able to move back to the kitchen counter,
though
the
ceiling was partially down. At around 7PM the winds started to
subside,
where we felt safe enough to venture to higher ground though the
winds
were
still pretty strong and the water was at waist level. We made it to
the
condo above and behind us and they were wonderful neighbours. We
just
knew
them to say hi but they brought us in, clothed us, fed us and gave
us a
bed.
We have been living with them since and they have made us feel
welcome.
We will stay with them until we find further arrangements.
The next morning we woke up to calm weather. We ventured down to our
condo
to assess the damage and almost cried. We had lost everything, our
clothes,
shoes, appliances, everything. We were able to save our laptop, a
few
pictures, jewelry and important papers, but other than that all we
had
were
the clothes on our back, which weren't even ours. We even found
someone
else's chair in our living room, books that weren't ours, etc. The
place
looked like a bomb had struck. Everyone was walking around in
shock.
Everyone's place on the ground level looked like ours or worse.
The house behind us was no more, gone into the ocean. We walked to
Grand
Harbour, where Norm works and people were walking around
devastated. It
is
hard to believe but we fared better than a lot of other places. The
condos
all along the ocean were gone. We now have an ocean view. We lost
both
of
our cars and I had no way to get into work, though I was to report
in
immediately after the hurricane. No one was prepared for this (not
even
the
Caymanians), they had never experienced a hurricane of such
intensity.
It
was actually the water surge that raised the ocean 20 feet and sent a
50foot
wave over the island. Anyone who has been here knows how flat this
island
is, so can imagine how much damage a wave like that would cause.
Seven
mile
beach is no longer part of Cayman. Condo complexes were swept into
the
sea.
We don't know the number of fatalities but there are numerous
people
missing. Graveyards in Cayman are usually along the ocean and many
of
those
were destroyed, so bodies, already dead were floating in the sea.
It is
a
site no one would believe without seeing it for one self.
We are now in a state of emergency. As most countries, the looting
started
the next day and the Camanian government has put marshall law into
effect.
There is a 6PM curfew and the police have been advised to shoot to
kill
all
looters. Two Jamaicans were shot and killed this morning for
looting.
There is no electricity and running water on the island, oh for a
shower!
Today is the first day we have had internet and there is no land
phones,
thank goodness for cell phones but most of the batteries are now
dead.
I have been working 12 hours with sometimes 4 hours off. We are
running
out of medical supplies, linens, etc. People are being sent back to
the
shelters, who shouldn't be. Other countries are now coming to our
aid
and
medical supplies are starting to arrive. They are getting all people
off
the island, who don't have to be here. I could go on and on but I
just
wanted to give you an idea what is happening in "once" paradise.
Norm and I have been too busy with work to deal with our loss, but
after
working 2 days, I realize we got off lucky. Everyone is helping
everyone.
I now have 3 pair of shorts, 5 tops, 2 pair of shoes and 2 pair of
socks
to
my name. I will be taking tomorrow off to try and see what I can
salvage
from our condo. Our landlord said he will not be rebuilding as
there is
too
much structural damage, so at the time we are homeless.
Anyway, I wanted to give you all an idea of what the last 5 days have
been
like.
I will keep in touch.
Take care
Love Louise

Makes me feel really lucky. Even those that lost all up in the panhandle can probably relate well to the above post.

Nope, no more storms for ANYONE, please!


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:19 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I am not wishing any more hurricanes anywhere, but am hoping to get a 40-50mph storm stall out about 50 miles off the Florida east coast for about a week and flush out some of this heat and humidity
(stalled storms tend to have cool dry air on the west side)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:30 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Shoot man I hope this kills anyone's appetite for more exciting WX in the southeast. Many just do not know the intense damage one of these storms is capable of.

I do have a fear of island living due to the events just posted her for the Cayman's.


Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:34 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

I am not wishing any more hurricanes anywhere, but am hoping to get a 40-50mph storm stall out about 50 miles off the Florida east coast for about a week and flush out some of this heat and humidity
(stalled storms tend to have cool dry air on the west side)


....and for the 'surfer crowd', nice waves. Eh? I could wish for that, but won't because I don't surf, I try to swim Waves make that difficult, at a minimum.

Speaking of waves: They tend to erode the sandy beaches. When I was a kid, I remember I used to have to walk 'forever' to get to the water across the sand. Now, I sit in my car in the parkinglot and the ocean come up to the sea wall at high tide...no beach left in places....No, waves are'nt all that wonderfull either I guess.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:38 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

The heat and humidity are what make this paradise what it is. If it were cooler and dryer than we would look like the Los Angeles area which is all dried out and brown looking. I know as I used to live out there..............plus the warmth just feels nice...........

Ricreig
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:43 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

Quote:

Shoot man I hope this kills anyone's appetite for more exciting WX in the southeast. Many just do not know the intense damage one of these storms is capable of.

I do have a fear of island living due to the events just posted her for the Cayman's.


While I don't have a fear of island living (mostly because I can't afford to), I do share your sentiments about the dangers during storm season. Thankfully, Ivans don't come around too often. Islands are considered 'paridise' because with few exceptions, one can live a lifetime without the disasters represented by Ivan and storms like him. But when it happess, a lot of suffering follows. I don't pity the people hit by these storms, pity does no good, but I certainly empathize with them and pray they can put their lives back together quickly. To those that didn't make it, I feel the anguish of their survivors, those that died no longer have to worry.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 09:51 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I do feel a lot of sorrow for those that are vulnerable such as the Cayman islanders and others. I like having more land options in the event of an evacuation.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 21 2004 10:31 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

just want to pop in here and say that it unaminus now. The 18Z GFS has Jeanne going WNW-NW after 36hours and hittting the Carolinas. Though I think it will be more west, I think it could get close to Florida and the Bahamas before going N,,,,thing is does it have a chance to get in the gulf?? Yes. Will it?? Dont know cause alot of models show some kinda mid level disturbance or trough over florida. If this isnt there by time she gets near Grand Bahama I dont see nothing to stop her from continuing WNW into florida.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:00 PM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

I agree Scottsvb, but if the ridge of high pressure were to build overtop the storm I think we could see it moving SW at 10-15 knots just like Betsy did. If the ridge does sort of a reverse eddy and the ridge sticks it's nose out overtop the storm I think it could go to Florida; Northern. Just my thought.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:24 PM
Jeanne's Death Toll Rising Fast

Reuters is now reporting 662 dead from Jeanne in Haiti with over 1,000 missing!!!

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6296906

This is looking more and more like a repeat of the May disaster. Jeanne should definitely be retired.

--Lou


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:28 PM
Jeanne 5 Day

When I start to see the models coming into agreement and a 5 Day Forecast like this, it gets my attention...especially since scottsvb said earlier he thinks this could reach CAT III status...

Up here we've been extremely lucky since Gloria; Bob '91 stayed well offshore; the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92 did produce copious flooding, but not the horrible winds & surge (think the Hurricane was Grace); Floyd '99 was but a mere shell of himself when he passed through here with TS winds; Isabel '03 really scared the bejezzus out of us, but she never recurved after going inland.

I need to come up with some kind of patented Rabbit Voodoo Hex...maybe wishing it to come here will work...

Still not ready to make a forecast yet, and I don't think we will really have a grip on Jeanne until Friday, when she should basically be in the same place she is right now...give or take.

While I will definitely not call for a cross-FL to the Gulf scenario, I don't think anyone on the East Coast can relax just yet.

Ivan's remnants are now in the GOM, but he's getting sheared pretty good at the moment. However, if those remnants can survive, conditions are forecast to be more favorable for development...

Maybe this will hit NO as a CAT III for Steve...or even make it all the way to SoonerShawn in Houston...who knows?

Karl is definitely for the trout but will his little sister Kate follow him or pass on the Fujiwhara and inch across the pond.

After seeing what Jeanne did to Haiti, I can almost guarantee she's being retired. I'm going to officially recommend that WMO replace Charley with Clyde, Frances with Francesux, Ivan with Idontneednomorestinkinhurricanes, and Jean with Justsayno.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:35 PM
bevy of comments

lot going on still.. this could run on forever.
jeanne is the top priority right now. it's beginning the anticyclonic loop that has been appearing in the forecast and on various model runs for the past few days.. and should accelerate westward over the next couple of days back towards the northern bahamas. the globals (gfs in particular) that were dead set on either stalling it or taking it east, as scottsvb mentioned, are now seeing the writing on the wall. that excerpt from bastardi linked earlier in the thread has an excellent discussion on just this topic.
i've got a mind that jeanne will get bypassed by another shortwave and come in sheared and weak early next week somewhere in the carolinas. the euro solution is the one i give the most credit right now. it may peak at cat 3 east of the bahamas, but upper westerlies too prominent in the globals for jeanne to come through strong.
ivan remnants sputtering and very weak.. traversing the gulf. it should work its way w to wnw and reach texas friday or saturday. bastardi thinks it redevelops.. i'm not so sure, but wouldn't be surprised.
karl going up and out. like a good hurricane. its wake shouldn't capture lisa, though it ought to keep the system slow-moving. the official keeps showing it turning nw late in the forecast period.. don't think that feature will turn it.. too much uncertainty with it's upcoming interaction with the disturbance trailing it. that disturbance should be a depression now (d2.0), but nhc has gone back to its usual ultra-conservative approach to distant systems. i have a feeling that it and lisa are about to duel. the following wave has model support for development as well.. given the recent trends i'd say there could be another active cyclone in the cape verde region in the next few days.. though we're close to the closure of that region of the basin.
earlier there was lots of talk about name retirement and lineage (with ivan). charley, frances, ivan, and now jeanne are potential retirees. if jeanne later hits the united states its chances will further rise. frances has mediocre chances, notwithstanding the rumors of france requesting its removal. charley and ivan are slam-dunk retirees.. too much death and destruction to re-use them. for a single season there have been more than the usual retirement or two.. but then there have been lots of landfalling systems.
as far as the gulf system keeping the name ivan.. i'd vote for it personally (it's been a trackable vortmax on a trough since decoupling from the transitioning surface system over virginia on saturday).. and nhc has mentioned it's descendance from ivan in it's two's and discussions.. suffice to say they see the relationship. it could realistically go either way... but would create questions when this seasons record goes to climatology.. was it one system or two?
well, ya'll have a good night. time to get some lunch/dinner.
HF 2333z21september


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:39 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

I like those last two names you came up with. By the way I shared your coconuts joke with someone who thought it was amazingly funny. How do you keep such a great sense of humor Phil?

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:49 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Great forecast Scott and one I think will pan out. I think the options are somewhere between a NJ and an eastern Gulf hit, but are most likely centered between GA and VA (e.g. SC, NC - landfall or brush-by).

Bastardi did a 4:15 update and now believes Ivanspawn will hit between 91 and 94W. I live at 90, so I'm not sure where 91 to 94 is but I'm guessing it's around Beaumont, TX to lower Terrebonne Parish (Cocodrie, Dulac, Chauvin, etc.).

Steve


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Sep 21 2004 11:51 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Quote:

I like those last two names you came up with. By the way I shared your coconuts joke with someone who thought it was amazingly funny. How do you keep such a great sense of humor Phil?




Well, I'm glad somebody appreciates my humor. Makes it easier to get through the day...BTW, just wait until I do my next "GEMS" in the Comedy forum. If you didn't see the past few, click on Comedy Shop then click on "Gems from today" and "Gems from the past week or so" and check it out!

LI Phil


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:05 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Thanks for the tip...........will check it out myself.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:36 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

LI phil,

With me on the Island I'll be sure to get the eye if it would come up here, since bad weather follows me like my dog. Anyway this season should be called the Season of Retired Names. How many names have been retired already, Charley, Frances, Ivan and now Jeanne; what's next... At least there's one good thing out of this, no nor'easters. The tropical systems have robbed all of the energy from the oceans and have left none for any nor'easter. That doesn't matter though we never know. I'll be following all these storms very close, people up here are not prepared for a hurricane and most likely not a CAT 3. I hope this won't be the LIer's wake up call for preparing with a hurricane.

Keith Roberts

eh, i dunno keith, last i heard the gulf stream is still flowing.. noreasters are more of a pattern-induced type of feature.. a temperature gradient on the east coast gives them more punch, but they're a menace regardless. -HF


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:37 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Just a little note about the response to the damage from Charlie and Frances (and to a lessor extent Ivan):

Pitiful. Plain awful. Charlie destroyed my neighborhood here a little N. of Orlando. There has been NO govermental response at all. (Save FEMA which has handed out checks to the UNINSURED.) Any damage not fixed by the homeowners remains. The debris remains. Had it not been for the "good ole boys" and their chain saws I assume we would still be trapped in here.

The public servants (Police and Fire) have actually had a detremental effect on the recoverery. Let me explain:

The police in the intial days seemed to be concerned that only FL licensed contractors do any repairs. This has effectively scared everyone off. In one case they threatened to arrest a brother of a storm victim for working on the roof because of lack of permit and a FL contractors license. That house later suffered $15,000 damage from the rain.

In another case the police threatened to arrest a single mother for disturbing the peace for running her generator after 10 PM.

Here, the seldom seen fire department made a drive through last week. They were warning people that there was a "voluntary" evacuation for flooding and that if you didn't leave they would NOT respond to emergency calls. They sounded more like lawyers than public servants.

I live on the St. Johns river, and anyone who has lived here any length of time knows we are not in the 100 year flood plain and the chance of flooding was non-existent. However, they did scare some of the older people and newer residents. My neighbor spent 2 days sandbagging her house. The fire department did throw out sand bags for the taking at their location, but filling them (no matter how old or disabled) was up to you. Maybe there were lots of fires in the flooded areas.

The Red Cross (consisting of 4 women in a compact car) came by once with meals 6 days after Charlie. For ice, water and gas you were on your own the entire time.

The power company was admirable after Charlie (7 days with much damge) but not so good after Frances (8 days with no discernable damage).

My neighbors still have damaged roofs with no one to repair them. I have not ONCE seen any public official help anyone. (The property appraiser drove through twice.) Private contractors are finally removing debis in some areas but not here.

I can only feel for those that suffered Ivan. I certainly hope they receive better treatment than we have..

Mr. U.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:38 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Quote:

the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92




Phil,

Halloween Strorm ( known as the Haloween swell to those of us who surf) was 1991


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:48 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

For anybody with roof damage, the Army Corps has a temporary repair program that's been mentioned on Palm Beach / TCoast radio since Frances. It was 1-800-ROOF-BLU, or maybe 1-866-ROOF-BLU or maybe even 877 or 888, I'm not positive. The point is, there's still assistance available.

LI Phil
(User)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:55 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Quote:

Quote:

the Hallowe'en Surprise (perfect storm) '92




Phil,

Halloween Strorm ( known as the Haloween swell to those of us who surf) was 1991




Yep...absolutely right, should have rechecked my data...actually should have thought about the hurricane names...if you had bob, your G-storm would be female (ala grace)...

I remember it well because I hosted a Hallowe'en party at which only about 1/2 the guests showed up due to the crappy weather...at least we didn't have to deal with many trick or treaters...little bastids


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:02 AM
Re: bevy of comments

Excellent discussion on the tropics there HF. In regard to the remnants of Ivan, I think that they will be named the same name because they have been saying the remnants of Ivan somewhere in the NHC diccussions, don't want to open another arguement though... The regeneration of Ivan is like a 50:50 chance, it's weird that the storms that have the most overall cyclonic energy ala Camille regenerated. Maybe the atmosphere can only hold a given amount of energy from a storm, so inturn the storms energy transforms from kientic to potential which I'm really not going to go in detail about that. Have a goodnight everyone!

DroopGB31
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:06 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Hey Guys, I finally made it back to my house today in Gulf Breeze after the bridge out of Pensacola opened. My house was missing alot of shingles as are most houses around here but the big problem are all the tree's. I think this qualifies as extreme tree damage. Every tree either lost almost every branch and limb or is snapped in half or on houses. Its very bad. The trees are all "naked" now since no leaves survived. We in my neighborhood are lucky though. Just a block away is were the flooding and surge damage starts. Whats amazing is these streets are a quarter mile from the sound. Its not a good site at all, very sad near the water. WHOLE houses are gone. I counted about 6 in my area that are completely gone except foundations. The big difference was stilts. If your house was on stilts its ok, if not, its inhabitable or gone. This is the Oriole Beach area of Gulf Breeze. I was lucky and Im very thankful. Everyone pray for those that lost everything. Goodnight

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:08 AM
Re: FEMA

I'm sorry to hear that FEMA has indeed dropped the ball again. It would seem that under an emergency/natural disaster declaration, by the Governor and/or the President, would waive any or most of the regulations for recovery. Apparently Not.
I would think that All of the federal, state and local agencies are beyond being overwhelmed with their tasking, and would permit certain specified recovery efforts.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:09 AM
Re: bevy of comments

I'll echo HF's comments here.

Jeanne, if it heads west, will be one sheared system...and as we saw late last week, it doesn't deal well with shear, being a relatively small storm.

Karl's going out to sea, where it can stir up the fishies and say hi to Danielle while it's there. Should be a nice extratropical storm for the maritimes in a few days.

Lisa is caught between a rock (Karl) and a hard place (the future TD 14). It's small size helps it a good bit, but it needs Karl to get away before it does anything. Would not be surprised to see a fujiwhara scenario set up between it and the system behind it...with Lisa being the Karen to the TD 14's Iris (1995).

The system behind it may well be TD 14 already and has a fair shot at being Matthew before too long. It might take the Karl path for awhile due to interaction with Lisa, but ultimately may end up turning back more to the west as it either rotates around Lisa to its south or eats the storm alive. Probably one for the fish down the line, which I don't think we all will complain about.

Models do give support to another wave in the wake of these, but I can't imagine there's that much left in the CV season. The climatological time frame is going out the window, atmospheric indicators are starting to go negative, and the waters are cooling both due to climatology as well as so many storms out there upwelling the water.

In the not too distant future, it'll be Gulf & Caribbean open season. We'll see some fronts make their way here, stall, and get some lows spinning in the Bay of Campeche or west-central Gulf. Here's hoping there aren't many that do so...and definitely no Mitches.

Remnants of Ivan...don't think they'll amount to anything, 'cept maybe spin around and around the SE US for awhile. Who knows, it could be the next Gordon (the 1994 version). Just don't think we'll get 5 systems at once.

The Mediterranean storm mentioned in the first post to the thread has moved off into Turkey, but I might be able to get you all a phase analysis on the low in the next few days to see what sort of structure it had. Not out of the question that it was a subtropical low....tropical might be stretching it, but I'll see what I (well, not really me, but my "boss") can dig up.


DroopGB31
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:11 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

Oh and sorry Phil if this is off topic. Just wanted to let ya'll know whats going on. And for the record, what storm do you all (this year) believe was the worse?

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:12 AM
Ivan remnants getting pulzerized by shear

no big surprise here... system getting blasted by strong SW shear from the ULL off in the BOC.... and if you look really long and hard enough on the IR loops you can see the weak LLC in the SE GOM.... estimated location of the center is ~25.2 and 84.2, will say this, shear not all that bad in the northern GOM at the moment... it might have a chance to develop to TS level if it can get some northerly component to it... and it looks like its moving around 315 degrees as best I can tell from the limited loops I've been watching... two tropical models run earlier on the day on this system brought it close to NO, one over to the panhandle, and one just kinda had it doing circles off the mouth of the MS river.... SHIPs had it max at 37K....

maybe a Bear watch will be posted tomorrow evening for the LA coast....
bares watching,...
barely...


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:35 AM
Re: Bear Watch

Great to have the site back up. While reading this thread I noticed several references to a "Bear Watch".
I "Googled" bear watch and everything I found was in the mountains of Canada and the U.S. All the information was about bear habitats and bear/human interaction.


BillD
(User)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:39 AM
Re: Bear Watch

The BEAR watch was mentioned in a local (somewhere in Texas) NWS forecast that SoonerShawn posted recently. I don't know if it was a typo, a joke, or what, but someone (Frank P?) picked up on it and it has been mentioned ever since.

Bill


SoonerShawn
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:40 AM
Re: Bear Watch

I have to disagree with JB on this one. I don't see much happening with the remnants of Ivan. We are forecasted to get some good rain in here by the end of the week but I think it will mainly come from the front that will come through and not by former Ivan. I don't even think his remnants will make it all the way to Texas. LA is as far west as I see it coming.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:44 AM
Re: Bear Watch

I honestly think it was an inside joke posted by the NWS office out of Houston/Galvaston office in reference to the fact that Ivan, and is basically a Russian name and perhaps heading their way, thus the Ivan the "Bear Watch" was posted on one of their AFD afternoon discussions a couple of days ago as they mentioned the possibility of the Ivan remnants heading towards Texas...... tongue-in-cheek I'm sure.... who the heck knows anymore.... NHC threw out the "Karl Marks" comment in one of their discussions... maybe the NWS did not want to be outdone...
I think its all hilarious.....


k___g
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:53 AM
Re: Jeanne-retirement after the season?

huh???

Kdubs
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:53 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

I just wanted to add my response to your unhappiness.

I live in South Orlando, in the path of Charley's eye and the NE quadrant of Frances.

The police and fire units did a remarkable job, at least in our area of the city. They started clearing streets at midnight, less than an hour after Charley blew through. FIREmen and POLICEmen... not treecutters. They went beyond their job description to make it possible for them to access potential emergency areas. As for the contracting, I don't know why they wouldn't allow out-of-state contractors to work, except for the large influx of unisured, unlicensed contractors. Their mistakes and injuries cost our local governments (and ultimately YOU, the taxpayer) a lot of money.

FEMA is there to help out those people who need assistance. You made a point of saying they gave checks to the "uninsured". Keyword = uninsured. Those with insurance have response from a private organization. And it's not as if FEMA abandoned you. Where do you think much of the available ice, water, food, tarps, shovels, chainsaws, etc came from? FEMA brought much of that in, and how much did they charge us for all those thousands of pounds of ice we took from their distribution sites? That's right... nuthin. So we had to go pick it up... Do you expect them to deliver to all 1 million residents of Orange County along with all the residents of the other counties hit?

Two million cubic yards of debris is a lot of stuff to pick up. Ours sat at the end of our yard for a long time, till after Frances. We had to tie it down so it would become flying debris. And yeah, it killed our grass, and yeah, when the men came to pick it up, they scraped up a good portion of our yard doing it, but how much did they charge you for curbside pickup, removal, and dumping? Any fees? Didn't think so.

I have no idea where you got the St. Johns flooding bit from. Every day I turn on the news, they have aerial pictures from the St. Johns seawalls with water sloshing up over them, flooding the streets of Sanford and Deltona. Whatever.

Gas was a pain to find. That one I'll give you. But the Central Florida petroleum distribution site is down here in South Orlando, and every truck that left that site was accompanied by at least one, usually two, law enforcement vehicles, ensuring that the gasoline got to a station near you, for your use, and that no one interfered with the delivery of what little gasoline there was to distribute.

The power companies have done miracles considering that they had to replace hundreds of miles of cables AFTER removing the trees from the lines and poles. They had to replace poles, transformers, jacks, etc. And before your house could get electricity back, they had to get power back to the substations and main transmission lines. And to get us power back quickly, they rigged it with only the essentials, knowing it will take a full year to completely repair the damage. When Frances came through, it didn't take as much damage to pull down what the power company had just duct taped up. And with 2 million people without power from Frances and almost that many from Charley just weeks before, you should be counting your blessings you weren't last.

When you purchase a home, you take on the responsibility for that home. It is not someone elses responsibility to keep the water out, to prop the walls up, to repair your wallpaper, or to fix you roof. There is insurance available to those who wish to have it, and bank loans available to those who don't. There are thousands of structures suffering from roof damage and only so many roofers to fix them. Be patient and use some of those free tarps that FEMA is handing out. They have a lot of people to help and it makes their job harder when there are disgruntled, unappreciative residents. Be grateful you still have a house that needs repair, unlike so many people in the Palm Bay/Jupiter Beach region, Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda region, and Gulf Shores/Pensacola region who would probably be more content having to wait for someone to repair their roof rather than wait for someone to build them a new house because theirs was washed into the ocean.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:01 AM
Thomas says Florida beware again

As I posted on Friday September 17, 2004, Jeanne is displaying some similar traits as Ivan. With all the adversity thrown at her in recent days she has not died but instead has grown to a hurricane again. Because the mid latitude trough passing by to the north did not pick Jeanne up. She is looking quite good with a solid and tight eyewall but with a shrouded eye and good outflow. She will probably end up going quasi stationary again then make a complete loop and head W-WNW towards the Florida east coast in future days, steered by the eastward moving large and strong high pressure system currently centered over the Mid Atlantic region. She may also once face wind shear again enroute to Florida so her ultimate strength is tough to call. I'll stick with a CAT 2 cyclone with a possible landfall between Vero Beach and Melbourne in future days.

Lisa, a very small cyclone with improved banding and outflow. She will probably grow quickly and threaten the northern Leeward islands in future days on a WNW heading. A U.S. strike is also possible.

Ex Hurricane Ivan/Future T.S. Matthew. Yes it's the low level remains of once mighty CAT 5 Ivan. See I said that it would strike peninsular Florida :<)) It made a big clockwise loop back into the Atlantic Ocean via South Carolina. Bizarre but true! He/it passed across South Florida and emerged into the Gulf Of Mexico and will head for the Texas Gulf Coast in future days as a possible T.S. Matthew.

Yes there are two other strong tropical disturbances chasing Lisa. GADS!

NOTE! As I officially retired from "for profit" weather forecasting in 2000, I do not have the time available to conduct an in depth daily meteorological synoptic analysis, therefore my day to day accuracy will be less then in past years, when I had a 48 hour forecast accuracy in the high 90% range. Also as the science of Meteorology and Weather Forecasting is still an inexact science, these not for profit discussions, forecasts and outlooks are not for use in lieu of official sources, are not for protection of life or property, are for educational purposes only and are subject to human error and acts of God, therefore no guarantee or warranty implied. Reproduction of information herein is allowed as long as proper credit is given.


Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL


52255225
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:10 AM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again

Thank You for posting! Its always nice to hear from the pros on this site. Sounds like you are somewhat in agreement with scottsvb, another good one here.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:12 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Kdubs...that was one of the poignant posts I have seen regarding the recovery here in Central Florida. I too witnessed our law enforement people out the same night Charley struck, cutting down trees to open up our roads.
I think the recovery effort and camaraderie have
been remarkable.
I have already received my insurance check to repair my home and have gotten offers from creditors to forego payments on such things as car loan & credit cards until we have gotten back on our feet. Bright House Cable has even credited us back for the lost days of service due to the hurricanes.

--Lou


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:13 AM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again

You know, If Jeanne comes on Saturday, I am cancelling that TIVO forever! Three times is a sign from above that I am not suppose to have one.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:16 AM
Re: Thomas says Florida beware again

Yeah, and I just took all my shutters down and put them away too. Of course, if a weekend is coming in September, the chance is there for another hurricane. This could be weekend 4 in a row.

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:29 AM
Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again

Reuters now lists 709 confirmed dead in Haiti with still over 1,000 missing.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml...storyID=6297971

Jeanne is the third tropical system this year to kill more than 100 people (including the May tropical system that the NHC refused to classify). Does anyone know the record for the year with the most tropical cyclones that killed more than 100? Could 2004 rack up another infamous record??
--Lou


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:31 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

I could not have said it any better myself! I live in Oviedo, which is NorthEast of Orlando. In my neck of the woods, the help and clean-up efforts have been phenomenal!!! They have been through my neighborhood atleast twice, possibly a third time, picking up debris. Law Enforcement, Fire Departments, FEMA, and everyone else have been unbelievable. The only complaint that I have is that my insurance company didn't make it out from Charley until after Frances, but hey...that probably saved me a second deductible, so I can't really complain there. I am also having a hard time getting proposals from vendors, but this is certainly understandable. Patience is a wonderful virtue.

After living through the nightmare, I choose to put my energies into being thankful that I still have life and a home, rather than complaining and feeling sorry for myself! It could have been alot worse, and was for alot of people.


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:52 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Recmond you are lucky.. Still waiting on Insurance Company. Even had to hire a good public adjuster.. I have gotten most quotes, except still waiting for a General Contractor to quote, but have roof, drywall, insulation, soffit, wood floors, painters, etc.. Just need the money now.. Great news on the creditors, mine havent been like that.. But I am ok with my finances at this time.. Got a 50 Check from FEMA

recmod
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 03:12 AM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again

Well, I just did a little study of my own regarding years with tropical systems individually responsible for >100 deaths. I used the Weather Underground archives as my resource. I only went back as far as 1933, and here is what I found:

Only ONE year had more tropical systems responsible for 100 deaths each than 2004. That was 1944, which had four tropical systems each kill more than 100 (216, 390, 216 and 318 respectively).
One other year had 3 different systems, each of which killed more than 100. That was 1955 (Diane-200, Hilda-304 & Janet-681).

I noticed that the Weather Underground archive included non-named tropical and subtropical systems in their data base. Therefore, I feel it is valid to include the May storm this year that struck Haiti.
So far, we have had 3 systems each responsible for >100 deaths: the Unnamed May system (3,000), Hurricane Ivan (118 at last count) & Hurricane Jeanne(possibly as many as 1,700).
Needless to say, 2004 is shaping up as one of the truly bad hurricane years. While many individual storms in the past have been responsible for high fatality counts, there have only been 2 other years with as many storms responsible for >100 fatalities. With another 2 months in the 2004 hurricane season, 1944's record might also be broken.

--Lou


Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 03:35 AM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again

>>And for the record, what storm do you all (this year) believe was the worse?

I think Ivan clearly was the worst of the worst. Arguments can be made for Charley and Frances, but the widespread devastation from Alabama to Pennsylvania was just remarkable. I haven't seen any damage estimates, but I would assume they will be 80% of Andrew (if not more) and as a whole, 2004 will go down in history as the worst year $$$-wise EVER.

If you look at Ivan's damage - and that's flooding in extreme SE LA, some damage in Southern Mississippi and SW Alabama, extreme damage in SE AL and W FL (including tornadoes to Tally and beyond, continued damage all up the I-65 corridor, and massive flooding all the way up through PA and over to Maryland and Virginia. Also, Greneda and some of the Islands took a bigtime blow from Ivan. If his spawn creates any additional damage (flooding, tropical downpours or whatever), then the toll continues to rise.

It's hard to say what the extreme case of Ivanspawn part deux will do. I could see a small tropical storm out of it with some banding features and maybe 40k winds accompanying flooding, but if he takes the right path, he could grow considerably more vicious (high end TS) and damage marine interests and coastal areas where/if he comes ashore. Having said that, it's all about "IF" and not when. We saw a beautiful, breezy afternoon. After the fringe clouds overspread us, the sun came out and blue skies were the rule. Let's see what the rest of the week brings...

Steve


Girlnascar
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 22 2004 04:10 AM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

For my fellow Central Floridians here is some more information on help for homeowners. One of the news items is the Governor relaxed licensing for roofing contractors.
Disaster Contractors Online Link From Fema


Kent
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 04:15 AM
Re: Jeanne News Worsens Yet Again

As far as widespread power outages Frances wins the prize. She turned off power to 2.5 million homes according to FPL...and that's not including the independant electric companies like Vero Beach Power etc.

Kent
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 04:41 AM
Attachment
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

"I need to come up with some kind of patented Rabbit Voodoo Hex..."

Thats ok LI Phil ...got you covered.
We went to the beach and my kids "hexed" Jeanne for you. They performed a secret native "go away rain" dance as well.....
see attached pic of Jeanne effects on Ft. Laud Beach today


mom2als
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 22 2004 04:48 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Lake Toho-
I responded to a post of yours before but I'm not sure if you saw it before a new thread started. You need to resubmit your stuff to fema. I know people who got a $1200 check for generator and chain saw. These people were only without power for a few days after Charley,had no damage whatsoever and had no trees on their property to even need a chain saw for. I cant believe people like them get free stuff yet people like you go without power for much longer and get nothing. Even sadder is the people who need generators the most,ie elderly or sickly,cant afford the upfront cost thus go without, while people who can easily afford them get reimbursed.
On another note, do you know any roofers in our area? The ones that did my tar paper havent returned any of my calls for a new roof estimate.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 05:12 AM
What is your thinking on the wave behind Lisa?

I think its a tropical depression. But what is your thinking

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 22 2004 05:58 AM
The E. Atlantic

On a lighter note...

Anyone get the impression that Lisa, small as it is, is one of those little white dots from Pac-Man and the developing disturbance behind it is Pac-Man himself? That's the first thing that popped to mind when looking at satellite this evening.

Nice to be able to have free days and nights once again, what with a bunch of (mostly) fish spinners out at sea.


James88
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 06:14 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic

Hey, you're right it does look a little like Pac-Man. I hadn't thought about it that way before.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 11:48 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic

I still feel that Jeanne is going to miss Florida but I am getting antsy. I don't want to see the TIVO pattern verify!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 11:54 AM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Glad the folks in Orange county dis such a good job for you. Here in rural Volusia it was not the same. No police officer or fireman violated their STRICT job description.

I didn't complain about FEMA, they were the only ones who helped. The closest city to here is Sanford AND THEY WERE REQUIRING PROOF OF RESIDENCE IN THAT CITY TO OBTAIN WATER OR ICE.

I hope they haven't charged us any fees for debris pick up, because nothing has been picked up.

Did you viisit the projected horrible flooding in Sanford? I think not, there wasn't any. Made good scary news stories though. The point is we are higher than them.

There were no police officers with the gas trucks here. Where was FEMA handing out tarps?

As I said the power companies were great after Charlie, harder to understand after Frances.

I was VERY lucky during both storms and was one of the only houses here without serious damage.

My point was that the public officials did not help, but actually hurt HERE.

Mr. U.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 11:57 AM
Re: The E. Atlantic

She is not moving west!......yet. A bit of a wedge currently exists with the trough that is between Jeanne and the Bahamas, but as the ridge to the north builds over Jeanne she will begin her SW/W movement. What's problemmatic is that she is moving farther south during this period, and could be below 25N before the turn. Second problem is this is a deep layered ridge that will allow her to come westward more than most models are seeing. Usually I don't favor westward moves in these circumstances at this position, but the strength and width of the ridge argue for a move that can bring it dangerously close to East Central Florida (ala NOGAPS 0Z run). Interesting again will be the 12Z run; but to tell you the truth, I'm getting tired of all this, and wish she would just get on with her business so we could can on with ours!! Cheers!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:05 PM
Re: Jeanne 5 Day

I only wish it were that easy. I have 2 neighbors that signed up for operation blue roof over a month ago. Both have not seen anyone from the corps since they came by and had them sign the papers to do the work. They have both had water damage now with frances and ivan since charley hit us here in port charlotte. I have tried to cover one of the roofs twice now myself. (he's 86 yr old handicapped man) But if I take anymore time away from work I'll need to find a new job. ( boss doesn't think things are really that bad down here). The army corp of engineers came in here saying they were going to be doing 500 roofs a day. But no one including the media can see anything like that happening at the rate they are moving, most people can not even fined out the actual number they are doing each day. As of now they both still need their roofs covered, they have both contacted contractors, but they are on waiting list behind several hundred others at this time. So, it's not as easy as just calling a toll free number.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:17 PM
AM Ivan remnants.....

are looking at lot better on this mornings IR loops as opposed to the previous couple of days... still fighting the shear monster but convection continues to develop to the east of the center.... shear lets up any at all and we have a very good change of a TS with this system... sooner rather than later

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:22 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Quote:

Glad the folks in Orange county dis such a good job for you. Here in rural Volusia it was not the same. No police officer or fireman violated their STRICT job description.

I didn't complain about FEMA, they were the only ones who helped. The closest city to here is Sanford AND THEY WERE REQUIRING PROOF OF RESIDENCE IN THAT CITY TO OBTAIN WATER OR ICE.

I hope they haven't charged us any fees for debris pick up, because nothing has been picked up.

Did you viisit the projected horrible flooding in Sanford? I think not, there wasn't any. Made good scary news stories though. The point is we are higher than them.

There were no police officers with the gas trucks here. Where was FEMA handing out tarps?

As I said the power companies were great after Charlie, harder to understand after Frances.

I was VERY lucky during both storms and was one of the only houses here without serious damage.

My point was that the public officials did not help, but actually hurt HERE.

Mr. U.




I probally live close to you and I have to agree with what you said. All the other county mayors made there statements on the tv after Charlie, were was ours???? hmmmmmm


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:22 PM
model runs on Ivan remnants

SHIPs has it at 44k max

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR

looks like a rain maker for SE TX/ SW LA worse case....

Station 42040 showing 27k winds and 35k gusts last report....


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:29 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

mom2als - couldn't agree more. Those who could afford generators had them reimbursed. Those who couldn't suffered. What is needded is a CLEAR and PUBLIC policy on reimbursement so that those with at least some resources know they will be reimbursed. Perhaps they can share with their neighbors as we did.

Sorry to hear the Corp of engineers aren't getting the job done. Will pass along the number to my neighbors anyway. First I heard of it. Thanks.

The link someone posted here to approved contractors doesn't work. Could you please repost?

Mr. U.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 12:49 PM
Re: AM Ivan remnants.....

Seems like Ivan's leftovers are really building up in the Gulf over the last three hours.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:12 PM
Re: AM Ivan remnants.....

Indeed:

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat...amp;overlay=off


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:19 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Just a quick comment from Polk County here - The support we got from local agencies was unbelievable. We had deputies who lost their homes still out helping deliever ice and water and helping the elderly clean up their yards.

I have heard a ton of complaints about FEMA but most of the complaints were from people who were looking for free handouts (in my opinion).

All in all, I finally saw a divided community come together to help each other in a time of need. Makes me proud to live in this Country.

_______________

Katie


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:29 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

I think different counties received different treatment. Voluisa (at least where I lived) was left out to dry!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:31 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

meant to say were I LIVE, still live here. Sorry, I type to fast!

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 22 2004 01:44 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

I know this is kinda off topic (sorry). Its great that Jeb Bush is allowing roofers from out of state to fix our roofs, however, keep in mind that your warranty will be basically worthless with an out of state roofer. If a leak develops or if something goes wrong later on with your roof, your out of state roofer may be long gone and I can guarantee you wont see them making service calls. I realize some people will have no choice, but just becareful. A roof is a huge investment, that should be done by someone locally. That way if you have any issues later, they can assist you. I am still waiting for a check from my insurance company, suppose to be here Friday. I am fortunate I have been able to get estimates, you just have to persistant.

Hope Jeanne does get to close, plastic is the only thing holding out the elements and the winds these days have made me a little anxious that I will need to have another temporary repair (I have had it repaired 3 x so far)..


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:09 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

does anyone else see a well defined LLC to the east of 93L?
(look on the last few frames; you can also see Lisa to the west being sheared)
93L

Also, there are TS winds with the Ivan remnamts, all they need to do is close off the center for us to have 4 named storms


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:15 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

Great point LT. I didn't know OOS roofers were allowed to fix roofs here yet though. A quote:

"The order allows "certified . . . registered, general, building or residential" contractors to repair roofs. The order covers nine counties affected by Charley, including Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole and Volusia.

Florida has some of the strictest contractor-licensing requirements in the nation. Trade groups have also been pushing the governor to grant temporary licenses to contractors from states with similarly tough requirements, so they, too .

Wednesday's executive order did not address that issue."

Does a roof warranty cover Hurricane damage at all? At this point I'm afraid we SHOULD let LICENSED OOS contractors repair roofs or suffer worse damage.

I certainly would want a warranty though.

Mr. U.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 22 2004 02:28 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

*continuing offtopic, sorry, but it needs to be said*

Just as a storm brings out the best in people, it also brings out the worst in people. Those strict regulations have saved thousands of people, from the elderly to the down-on-hard-times, from being swindled or out and out robbed by con men. These people will seek out the vulnerable, pull up in a truck, and offer a deal that can't be refused in exchange for cash up front, for example. Or they'll perform the work, charge exorbitant prices, and leave sub-standard results.

I hate to sound like such a prude, but these things are generally for our protection (as were the curfews). Having an in-state license means they are held accountable for their work, and will follow building codes with their repairs. Yes, out-of-state contractors would be a welcome aid, especially if they have similar hurricane codes. While I don't think the cops had a right to threaten family members helping out, I certainly can't question the overall stance.

On topic: I still hold to my belief that the ridge is being overstated in the models, and Jeanne will start to slip back North and East. Looks like I'm about to get crowed though


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 03:07 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

You want a roofer? 321-753-2373...........out of Palm Bay but willing to go on the road, Wayne's Roofs and has a combined experience of over 25 years this guy and his dad and their hired crew.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Sep 22 2004 03:13 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

I think you can look for roofers in states like GA or SC or Alabama that understand and have hurricane code roofing styles. Forget any CA roofers as they have no clue about this kind of weather.

Mozart
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 22 2004 03:23 PM
Re: To MR UNHappy

From the 11:30 AM Outlook:

SATELLITE IMAGES...ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...INDICATE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE ORGANIZING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

I notice that they haven't mentioned in the last few discussions that this is part of the remnants of Ivan. Sounds like they want to get away from that name entirely.

Looks to this untrained eye like the circulation is around 27N 88W which is just southeast of the convection.



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