MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 01:21 PM |
Jeanne Watch
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Hurricane Jeanne, after devastating Haiti and killing hundreds is still sitting in the Atlantic, being very predictably erratic (to put it kindly).
A general westward motion is expected to begin eventually which may put some areas along the US east coast under watch. Keep an eye on Jeanne.
Karl is the fish spinner, moving its way up through the central Atlantic.
Lisa is another erratic storm, it is so small it may be overtaken by the disturbance that is behind it, which will probably become a depression today or tomorrow. Lisa's current movement is slow, and probably will slow down more if it doesn’t get absorbed by the other system first.
The last system being watched is the low in the Gulf, a spin off of Ivan, which will have trouble organizing but still needs watching.
It’s a very active day in the tropics, with several drunk systems in the Atlantic, it will be a cautious watch for the next few days, especially on Jeanne.
Event Related Links
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 01:43 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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honestly dont think she is being very erratic, think she is being very extremely predictable... it was predicted she would loop and now she is...
which is pretty common for storms in that region this time of year when the steering currents sort of "bomb out" and then they usually curve back out to sea.. often missing the carolinas but not always
have a good day everyone, will have to watch her
very cloudy and rainy still in miami.. feels like a mini trogh is hanging here
bobbi
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:03 PM |
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ANDREW ANYONE???
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I think the models will continue more west but not much, thing is still will it make it too the gulf??? I think it will affect florida with TS winds at the least, if not its a bust forecast but Im not 100% sure if it will get to 81W and south of 29N. Anyways my forecast has it coming to florida still over the last many days. Just was delayed a couple days due to Hispaniola interaction and shear (though if you look back on my posts when Jeanne even formed I said this would happen) though more then I thought. Anyways everyone is saying Betsy or another storm,.,,,,but really folks I posted a week ago or so,,,,Andrew anyone??? Im sure the regulars on here remember that post and this is where roughly he went N to this location alot people said he would go out to sea but they feared the ridge building into the western atlantic,,,,he turned south for a day then w and even wsw thru Homestead. Now will this get as strong as Andrew?,,,,NO. Reason really wont be too much the shear but the dry air should keep this around 105-120mph. I expect strengthning up to a Cat 3 just prior to landfall as she will encounter warm ssts near the cape with the gulf stream. I think the ridge will hold her on a w course alittle longer cause it will be alittle stronger then forecasted and also resulting in a weakning trough running into the ridge. Jeanne will find a weakness though over the weekend and get pulled up but it might get stuck while the weak trough exits and a reinforcing ridge developing over the great lakes moves easterward to build back over the region. All this now is past 5 days so I wont say this will happen but its there. Anyways currently she has begun her wobbles to the sw and will get close to 25.5N and then head west. Hurricane watches for the central and northern bahamas will be issued by tomorrow morning but maybe as early as 11pm tonight.,,,(40%) on tonight.
With the rest of the Atlantic,, Karl will move N or then NNW then go back N and NE,,, never getting past 52w. Lisa will also stay way east of the Lesser Antillies and might not get past 55W. System behind that might get closer to 20N and 60 W by the weekend but anything now moving WNW or NW east of 65W and north of 15 will have almost a 10% chance of ever making it to the U.S. They will encounter the westerlys that dive down to 20-25N more often pulling the system northward and also causeing shear ( not good for tropical development). Basically its under 15N moving thru the carribean then heading up to threaten the central or eastern gulf. Son of Ivan could still make it to a TS. Hard to tell if it will and if it will, then pull south near the Texas coast or move inland.Thing is there is a seasonal upper ridge over Mexico that might pulll it down to the bay of campeache. I do feel in about 10-14days we will find something trying to develop down there or in the sw carribean as a strong trough develops over the eastern U.S. Deep carribean moisture will combine with possible remenents of td14? or a tropical wave and start to form a depression. Not saying this will happen but the pattern recognition is there over the 10-14 day period and NO,,no models are showing this. I dont go by the models all the time cause they will change from run to run. Anyways, Illl post more later. scottsvb
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:13 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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does anyone else see a well defined LLC to the east of 93L?
(look on the last few frames; you can also see Lisa to the west being sheared)
93L
Also, there are TS winds with the Ivan remnamts, all they need to do is close off the center for us to have 4 named storms
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:18 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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I have not seen rotation or an LCC on the son of Ivan this morning...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:24 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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94L
look closely to the southwest of the convection--the circulation is there, and may close off by tomorrow
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:27 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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Try it on the visible loop
Steve
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:29 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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either way, looks better than it did last night
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:33 PM |
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Re: Jeanne Watch
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I see it now. I wonder if there is any chance at all that that the energy from this system might somehow make it to the midwest. We DESPERATLY need rain in Missouri.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:42 PM |
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Jeanne at 11
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No major change:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_dis_nt1.html
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:44 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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Could somone please give me the website where I can see the t-numbers assigned to the Altantic Systems?
I'm looking to see if any have been assigned to 94L?
Thanks,
ticka1
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:48 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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If anything, Lisa seems to be rotating around the disturbance to the east
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:51 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:52 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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22/1145 UTC 26.3N 87.1W T1.5/1.5 94
22/1145 UTC 11.8N 34.8W T1.5/1.5 93
22/1145 UTC 26.1N 49.1W T4.5/5.0 KARL
22/1145 UTC 14.1N 41.1W T3.0/3.5 LISA
22/1145 UTC 26.5N 68.6W T5.0/5.0 JEANNE
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:54 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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LI Phil - has anyone told you - your the best!!!!!!
Thank you.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:55 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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No, thank you!
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 02:56 PM |
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94L
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It looks like it is trying to spin up. Just starting to see a little more cloud cover around the center. If it does spin up into a depression, and that is a BIG IF, it will take a while and that may be the best it can do.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:00 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Itll be a storm if it closes off
Scatterometer from 7 am, when it was weaker--note the large area of 45 knot winds (50 mph)
if it closes off, I am guessing it will at very least be a 40 mph TS
trying to figure out why 93L hasnt been upgraded yet
maybe at 5pm
93L
you can see a bit of an LLC to the east of the main ball of convection, and note weakening Lisa to the west
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:01 PM |
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TX bound Shawn??
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Yo Shawn, if the shear would let up this thing might take take off... and it should head basically towards SE TX over time I would imagine... maybe you'll get a few feeder bands after all...
| ticka1 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:03 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
It looks like it is trying to spin up. Just starting to see a little more cloud cover around the center. If it does spin up into a depression, and that is a BIG IF, it will take a while and that may be the best it can do.
SoonerShawn - where to you think 94L will go? The Houston/Galveston area. I think you are right if it does anything it will just be a TD - maybe a named storm if its a slow mover. But we do need the rain here in Baytown.
Ticka1
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:09 PM |
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ticka1
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I think it will actually go south of us into Corpus or even south of there. If it goes in around Corpus than it should be close enough to help give us some rain.However, I still believe most of the rain we will see in the next couple of days will be a result of the cool front coming in and not from the gulf system.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:13 PM |
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Tracking 5 systems...
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Well...well...well.
5 systems on the board today...
Let's start with Jeanne...models are again showing good agreement with her...finally...she's strengthening again and now looks to be taking a shot at NC...even JB has come around to this line of thinking...anything to spare Fl another hit. Of course, this means that eventually LI may be at risk...fine with me if it spares FL of a hit, but I'd much prefer she just head out to sea. Way to early for even the NC call, and I'm not saying Florida is out of the woods yet...must be watched closely.
Karl...nothing to say except...bye bye...enjoy spinning the fishes!
Lisa...little tiny bit of a storm...looks to track west for at least a few more days, then hopefully join Karl to have a fish fry...unless...
93L envelopes her...It's huge and it's right behind her...will be interesting to see if a little Fujiwhara action takes place there...T#s 1.5/1.5, so it's not ready to get TD status anytime soon.
94L...the leftover Ivan...I'm thinking this one has a very good shot at becoming Matthew as a strong TS/weak Hur, possibly even getting a name as soon as today; even though the T#s are also 1.5/1.5...haven't looked at the recon plan for today, wonder if they'll be sending in a plane to investigate? I would think that under normal circumstances there would be no recon (as it's not even classified, per se), but it being in the warm gulf maybe they would. I've been disagreeing with JB recently, but I'm gonna go with him on this one and think it does develop and make a run at the TX/LA border towards the weekend.
Phew...at least nothing is imminent!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:15 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Shawn, you are fooling no one. And it will be more than a depression. Bank on it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:19 PM |
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Re: 94L
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SATELLITE IMAGES...ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...INDICATE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE ORGANIZING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:19 PM |
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Re: T-numbers on 94L
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I concur with the other poster after all you devote your time to helping us out down here.....................
I'm sure glad rickonboat turned up safely..............I was getting kind of worried.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:22 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
SATELLITE IMAGES...ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...INDICATE THE
LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE ORGANIZING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY
ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...BUT
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Teal: can you post a link to this, please?
Nevermind... I saw it in the TWO...
Thanks!
Allison
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:22 PM |
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94L
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000
FXUS64 KLCH 221428
AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
928 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.UPDATE...
The inverted trough (wave-in-the-easterlies) is misbehaving over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico. Special raob releases for noon and midnight
have been requested by the National Hurricane Center until further
notice. I will retain the "Coastal Flood Watch" and "Small Craft
Advisory". Otherwise, stay tuned!
Hmmmmm....
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:24 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Thank you very much Redbird1!
>>> AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
Well, there's my answer...
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: 94L
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...ALL EYES ARE NOW ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN
GULF. THE SYSTEM MAY BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS AFTN OR TNT.
BLV THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ALOFT MAY PREVENT IT FROM STRENGTHENING
TOO MUCH AND WL LKLY KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION OF THE NRN
SEMICIRCLE WITH LTL TO NO CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THIS SYSTEM TWDS THE MIDDLE AND UPR TX
COASTLINE BY TMW AND FRI AND THEN SLOW IT DOWN ONCE IT REACHES THE
NW GULF. WE WL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
I guess I'm not the only one who thinks it will not get that strong.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:26 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I agree with ya Phil (been a while though.. hehe)
system in the GOM starting to develop nice LLC signature in spite of overwhelming odds fighting the still quite strong SW shear from the ULL off in the BOC...
my opinion is that this also has the chance to make it to a strong TS or weak hurricane in the northwestern GOM.... especially if it slows down any as it tries to pull away from the shear... wow, what a year this has been....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:28 PM |
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Re: 94L
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My best advice for those in my area......near the cape would be to get your places boarded up and restock your food and water as it seems like Jeanne is headed for this area..........no chance of a hurricane free weekend anytime soon. I don't want to see LI get any of this either. The northeast is soaked as it is. Let's all go to Canada.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:30 PM |
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Re: 94L
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It looks like one of the floaters may now be on 94L... check out the most recent 3-4 frames (image nos. 146-148)...
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/RSOMAIN.HTML
Allison
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:35 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
I agree with ya Phil (been a while though.. hehe)
system in the GOM starting to develop nice LLC signature in spite of overwhelming odds fighting the still quite strong SW shear from the ULL off in the BOC...
my opinion is that this also has the chance to make it to a strong TS or weak hurricane in the northwestern GOM.... especially if it slows down any as it tries to pull away from the shear... wow, what a year this has been....
Uh oh. When Frank P. & I agree on something then it's bound to be WRONG! Actually, I've been pretty lucky with some recent calls, with my new South Beach diet forbidding the ingestion of copious amounts of crow...however, I've been known to cheat on every new diet...so it's only a matter of time.
The ghost of Ivan is not going to die an easy death...bastid. (humming Phil Collins' "Against All Odds":
And you coming back to me is against all odds and that’s what I’ve got to face...I wish I could just make you turn around
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:41 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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""Uh oh. When Frank P. & I agree on something then it's bound to be WRONG! ""' too funny
Hey man I've been hot as a fire cracker with Frances and Ivan... and maybe we'll both be right with the.....
"return of Ivan", or
the son of Ivan, or
Ivan part deaux.....
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:42 PM |
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Re: 94L
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From the "For What It's Worth" department...
This is off the website for KHOU in Houston (Dr. Neil Frank's crew)...
A difficult forecast for Southeast Texas the next five days. A tropical system may develop into a depression or tropical storm this week and move west toward Texas by the end of the week. Also moving toward the area is a new cool front expected to move into the area late Friday/early Saturday. The question mark in the forecast is how all of these factors will work together. At best much needed rain will move into the area on Thursday and stick around through Saturday. Again much uncertainty in the forecast.
Uncertainty, indeed...
Allison
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:45 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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How can anyone living in a food paradise such as NYC not be expected to cheat on a diet? Live down here and you will waste away as the food pickins are slim.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 03:46 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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You have been right about a lot of things so why not this?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:07 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:Oh yeah? When am I going to start wasting my 275 lbs away? If you like hot-dogs, I guess Yankee food is fine, or even steak subs, but for real cookin' you need to be in the South, deep south. Maybe that is why there is such an abundance of hurricanes here in Florida this year, they've heard about our good food. Yeah, that's it, our warm water, abundant sunshine and Sourthern hospitality....maybe that has something to do with the so-called land avoidance Ivan seemed to perform. It was trying to get into the deep south wasting as little energy as possible in the process. I guess he figured the penensula of Florida had too many Yankees in it so went to Alabama and the panhandle direct to the heart of good Southern cookin'
How can anyone living in a food paradise such as NYC not be expected to cheat on a diet? Live down here and you will waste away as the food pickins are slim.
Just kidding Phil. There is at *least* one good Yankee living in Long Island
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:14 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Hey Ric I should have said our little hamlet in central florida was food deprived. I would be eatin for days up there with all the Jewish delis and Pizza shops not to mention the Chinese foods. Bagel shops on every corner. Now that is good eating.
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:27 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
5 systems on the board today...
Let's start with Jeanne...models are again showing good agreement with her...finally...she's strengthening again and now looks to be taking a shot at NC...even JB has come around to this line of thinking...anything to spare Fl another hit. Of course, this means that eventually LI may be at risk...fine with me if it spares FL of a hit, but I'd much prefer she just head out to sea. Way to early for even the NC call, and I'm not saying Florida is out of the woods yet...must be watched closely.
Phil, I'm not directing this AT you, just TO you. I told my boss early last week that I felt this would happen. I am not at all sure that the westward movement forecast to begin within the next 12-24 hours will, in fact, after 72 or so hours begin a turn to the NW...at least not in time to avoid Florida. Models are now tending much more westard and a few suggest a Fla landfall. This far into the future, models are not a very good guide nor are forecasts for that matter. I think that Scottvb in his forecast recently posted, seems to agree with this 'feeling' I've expressed, so with regard to the forecast that it will turn NW 'in time' to avoid another Florida landfall:
I'm not betting on it. Overall confidence in forecasts beyond 2 days is very low this year and in some cases, confidence in forecasts beyond 6 hours is suspect. In the case of Charley, while forecasts 3 days into the future said landfall near Punta Gorda, by 36 hours, it had shifted to W of Tampa, then by about 24 hrs said Tampa area or slightly north. By noon on the landfall date, it was still pointing at Tampa. By 6 hours, it was obvious to all but the official forecasters that it was 50-60 miles off or more and within a few hours had already hit an hour or so south of the forecast.
Please don't tell me to expect it to turn in time to avoid Florida, hope, yes, expect, definitely not. I'm darned tired of packing, moving my valuables, thankfully being able to return, only to have to do it again and yet again and possibly yet a 4th time. I was lucky that my mobile home suffered little damage unlike 10 of my neighbors that lost it all with Charley. It was dented and bruised by their roofs and awnings and other debris, but it survived. Yes, I did move my stuff out of my mobile home 3 times so far and twice was hit either directly (Charley) or in the NE quadrant of another (Frances). Ivan was a 'certain hit' for Florida and as a CAT-IV at the time, no matter where it hit in Florida (other than the panhandle) meant packing my valuables once again. You don't want to wait till it starts raining.
Well this time, I never unpacked but moving a trunk load at a time is exhausting for an old man like me. I had my 62nd birthday Sept 4 when Charley arrived in the area.
IF this sounds like berating the forecasters, I assure you it is NOT. The state of the forecasting 'art' is just such that this season has dictated not only 3 (4 maybe) good reasons for me to evacuate my mobile home and the forecast accuracy has been such that I would have been a fool not to as the Orlando area at some point was directly affected by 2 storms or was forecast to be affected directly by another (Ivan) and possibly yet another. I am fortunate that Ivan's initial forecasts showing paths through or near Orlando proved inaccurate, but I hate the fact that it spared me at the expense of my friends north and west of here.
We'll see what happens, but for the moment, stuff stays packed and hopefully time remains to move it to safer quarters will remain when the path of this storm *finally* is identified accurately enough to make the evacuation decision timely.
Someone asked me why don't I evacuate and leave my stuff so it can be replaced by insurance. Have you ever tried to get hurricane insurance on a mobile home? I could replace most of my stuff for the price of the premium... No thank you. I can't think of anything more of a scam than insurance. Its getting so bad that even if you can afford the premium, the deductables approximate the average loss for all but those suffering full destruction of their home. My boss, who gave me refuge during my evacuations, had a tree fall on his house. The tree belonged to a neighbor so his insurance wouldn't pay for removal, The neighbors insurance wouldn't pay because it fell onto her neighbors property, not her own. The damage to his house didn't exceed the new deductables for hurricane damage. So, the policy was worth zero, nada. Of course, had the whole house been demolished, *then* he would have gotten something, but not a new house...with co-insurance and deductables, maybe 75% coverage remained. Yeah, it's a racket. Yeah, I'm bitter and I wasn't even the one to suffer the loss. My loss was only days lost from work, the gas used to transport my stuff and enough anxioty to shorten my few remaining years of life by God onlyl knows how much! Doctors say stress kills....If it does, I'm on borrowed time.
Maybe Jeanne will do it? Take my remaining time, I mean....Just venting, but I think a lot of my fellow Floridians feel much the same way...both about getting hit again and about wishing it on our neighbors to the north.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:33 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I am truly sorry Ric you had to endure this. No right words to say to take away the anguish................I am feeling the same way about insurance rackets and I know being the bullseye is no fun as T-ville got a wallop both times.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:34 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Richard,
I think you just spoke for 99% of the state of Florida! You know I'm wishing, hoping & praying Jeanne doesn't hit Florida...
That was a very moving and heartfelt post...hopefully many will be able to read it...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:34 PM |
Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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The Gulf system is interesting; though convection has increased, the LLCC is still exposed due the shear. I remain skeptical as to its prospects; the models remain nearly unanimous in maintaining hostile conditions over the western Gulf through 48-72 hrs. At most, we're looking at a minimal TS, and quite possibly "only" a depression.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:35 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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WOW Andrew anyone? well not the strength but Im still going on the andrew track, just 150 miles north. Anyways you all look at the 12z model runs yet? Theyre now in line with my thinkning over the last week. Infact the Nogaps takes it right into Melbourne,florida and into the Gulf near Tampa. GFS takes it to about 28N and 79W or 30N and 80W and brings close to hurricane force winds along to coast near Merrit Island N....only 50 miles offshore. CMC dont go out more then 72 but is online with a Melbourne target but cant tell if it will brush the coast or go inland,,,,anyways the models adjust a little more to the SW on the runs. I also just to note the CMC did a jog to the WNW or NW during the loop in the first 24 hrs so it might be just a tad to far north on the run which would bring it along with the Nogaps. Now Stewart mentioned the Nogaps and (as of now) is disregarding it and says its due to the ridge hanging on alittle longer then the rest of the models, but I dont see that as the case, its just that the ridge will be stronger to the N so it weakens 24 hrs later to that of the GFS (which is still a northern byest model). So since the ridge will be just a tad stronger, it will push Jeanne just alittle faster as you see in the hrs on 36-108. Nogap makes landfall about 12 hrs sooner. So basically what Im saying is that the Nogaps has a stronger ridge so it moves Jeanne just a tad faster, bringing her onshore. For the first 24 hrs the models are in agreement on a sw-w path with the CMC having a jog N in the 24-36hr. Then a w path.
Im still not saying its going onshore for the best of my knowledge and info but its a timing call. Will Jeanne move 10-12mph starting Thursday afternoon to the west or move 8mph (abouts) to the west. Its timing folks. Anyways hurricane watches should be posted for the northern Bahamas by tomorrow morning, maybe as early as 11pm tonight. BTW I havnt seen the UKMET run yet.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:36 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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The Outlier (12Z NOGAPS) is still outlying, and further west. It takes Jeanne into east central FLorida at 84 hours, and into the extreme NE GOM then into Georgia at 120! Not saying its right, but its another westward shift. Generally, at least in the winter time, the NOGAPS has a right bias. FOrmer Ivan or whatever looks like Matthew soon too. Stay tuned!! CHeers!!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:42 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:Yup neighbor, 'taint fun. Part of life, yes, fun no.
I am truly sorry Ric you had to endure this. No right words to say to take away the anguish................I am feeling the same way about insurance rackets and I know being the bullseye is no fun as T-ville got a wallop both times.
I just wish that we could *do* something, but that is wishfull thinking and totally impossible. Knowing that doesn't make it less frustrating, does it? Funny thing is, except for our friends in the SW coast, Charley really spared us the utter devistation found in the Panhandle with Ivan and the floods affecting our neighbors to the north. No fun for them either but you and I as it turns out, were the lucky ones weren't we?
As to insurance: That is really one of my few 'hot buttons'. Unfortunately and I apologize to the forum, it is off topic even though related to hurricanes so I won't go further on that subject. I understand cursing and swearing is also off topic :
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:44 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Allison, Beaumont here. Do you think the system will develop
into a storm?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:45 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Yes right now they (think they said) is the outliner on the Nogaps, but Ill take it over the GFS and even that is a tad sw bringing close to hurricane force winds to the coast. If just 1 more model run to the sw occurs then it willhave more then a 50% chance of coming inland. Also note everyone the short term run. They and the models dont think it will come under 26N from the NHC, couple models 25.8, so if it does go down to say 25.5-25.8N then that is a major difference in WPB and Melbourne getting Hurricane force winds near the coast.
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:48 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Do you guys think that the sharp turn to the north before reaching SC is
probable or do you see it as being a more gradual curve north taking the storm into NE SC and then back out to sea?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:51 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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SC isnt out of the question. It can still turn when it gets near the florida coast. Anyone from WPB-NC need to watch this, including the Panhandle of Florida.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:54 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Oh I know we just got a touch of the ugliness of cane misery out here................I still choose to live here though........call me strange but the wx negatives up north are bad too like snow and blizzards and killer tornadoes.
Yeah most insurance is about as supportive as wearing a bra backwards............minimal coverage at best.
| Liz L. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 04:57 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I know here in St Cloud we have had some gusty winds upwards 15 to 20 mph. but at least its sunny and a bit pleasant. not like the rain we had 2 weeks ago that put 2 ft of water onthe street i live on. it was a horrible site to see.
Lets hope Jeanne doesnt pay us a visit but if she does I am ready. My prayers go out to the people who need all the help to revcover here in our state and other countries.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:01 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Yes Canadien (CMC) takes it (her) into east coast of FLorida and even the GFS 12Z takes it to its closest approach to the FL east coast (furthest west i've seen it). THat said, let's see if it begins to move to the west!!! Cheers!!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:02 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
Allison, Beaumont here. Do you think the system will develop
into a storm?
Ivy: there are people much smarter than me who don't know for sure...
However, my uneducated guess is that, if the shear lessens, it has a chance to develop into a TD or TS as it moves into warmer waters in the western GOM.
But regardless of whether it becomes a named storm, it will likely bring rain and a slight breeze to SE Texas...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:05 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
Yes Canadien (CMC) takes it (her) into east coast of FLorida and even the GFS 12Z takes it to its closest approach to the FL east coast (furthest west i've seen it). THat said, let's see if it begins to move to the west!!! Cheers!!
still learning......can you tell what and where the GFS12z is?
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:08 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Scott, where can I find the latest NOGAPS run? The onle one I can find is from last night.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:15 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html
Anyone who wants try this for the model runs
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:17 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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hoping ed deletes Phil's lyrics too
only fair
..............
officially we are still only tracking 3
lots of rain in S Fla, heavy flooding in some places and more on the way.. almost looks like a weak trof of some kind formed from system in Gulf to rainbands of far away Frances
wierd but watch sats and you may see what I mean
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:20 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Heres latest NOGAPS it runs at 12/00z...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_loop.cgi?area=ngp_namer&prod=thk&dtg=2004092212
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:33 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Did Phil post some dirty song lyrics that we don't know about? I didn't think so.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:41 PM |
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94L
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I do not think it has a closed low. Does not look too impressive and doubt they will classify it today or tonight. Just think it will be a rainmaker.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:46 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Redbird,
You should register so I can send you a PM...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:47 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I will and this time not lose my password..............red
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:48 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Mike can recover your password for you...
email him at Mike@flhurricane.com
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:50 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I tried to re-register and it won't let me..............original password was sent to my hotmail account and it got lost in the junkmail............can you or mike help me so I can become an honest poster here?
see the above post
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 05:58 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Okay just emailed him..............thanks
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:07 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/news_columns.asp?type=margusityh
Very Interesting!!!
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:09 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Anybody else see a SSW motion starting with Jeanne? The ridge is building quickly to the North of her, this should start that trend soon. Looks like she is right on the NHC track. The quicker she starts that W move the better for us here in S FL. I don't want to see her get much below 26-27.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:14 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Sure do...
Jeanne
Latest Dvorak's:
22/1745 UTC 27.4N 48.8W T5.0/5.0 KARL
22/1745 UTC 12.8N 36.5W T1.5/1.5 93
22/1745 UTC 13.8N 41.5W T3.0/3.5 LISA
22/1745 UTC 26.3N 88.5W T1.0/1.5 94
22/1745 UTC 26.2N 68.8W T5.0/5.0 JEANNE
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:15 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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I finally registered. I feel special now. Hi everyone. I've been on here, but never registed, but I guess now was a good time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:16 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
I do not think it has a closed low. Does not look too impressive and doubt they will classify it today or tonight. Just think it will be a rainmaker.
Dude, what are you looking at? You need to get a grip or
grow up.
Jenny, be nice OK
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:16 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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That guy from accuweather is out on a limb. For 1 its not a depression cause there is no storms around the center. Also with Jeanne he could be right but hes going off the models and the GFS. It could still hit NC but not before florida gets a scare. Anyways Florida has a good chance. Overall I feel his forecast is very weary.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:21 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
That guy from accuweather is out on a limb. For 1 its not a depression cause there is no storms around the center. Also with Jeanne he could be right but hes going off the models and the GFS. It could still hit NC but not before florida gets a scare. Anyways Florida has a good chance. Overall I fee his forecast is very weary.
Post removed by moderator -- You were warned.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:27 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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tis ok, he got the message.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:30 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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someone really wanting to get him by a storm or something? I missed what was said to me, LOL.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:35 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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94L sure looks to be moving more north than west at the moment... and not very fast either... maybe this is just a temporary deviation from its projected course to the wnw, but vis sat loops are showing more a slow NW to NNW movement/drift currently... shear still pounding the stew out of it, and fortunately it has not gotten any better organized since late this morning, but it sure is hanging in there in spite of all the shear...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:43 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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94L
Where would you even estimate the "center" to be...
| LanceW |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:44 PM |
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Newbie
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I have been lurking here for a long time and finally decided I would post. Great site!!! Thanks for the continued information here
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:46 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
94L
Where would you even estimate the "center" to be...
personally I would have put it at 28.8N and 88.8W...
but that's just me
Mark
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:48 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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94L: The llc is exposed at about 26n and 86.5w all the weather is north of the center and it will stay that way.
We are about to have 4 systems as I think little Lisa will capture the monster moisture behind it and get much bigger...it already looks better this pm than this morning
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 06:49 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Quote:
94L
Where would you even estimate the "center" to be...
I think the center is still exposed south of the convection. It's difficult to tell, but I think its still WNW or maybe a tad NW. I would guess 290-295. I think the shear may give the hint of the North movement. I could be wrong.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:00 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Reading through the comments, I'm really hoping that Jeanne doesn't make tracks for Central florida. I've said all along I didn't believe it would.
The comments on insurance are probably best for another forum but it's all part of the aftermath of a storm when peoples lives are affected and their stress levels go through the roof. My thoughts are the insurance is a necessity and that you should have money in the bank to cover your deductable. That isn't always possible. Remember you have rights and sometimes have to fight the insurance companies to force them to do the right thing.
Well, if Jeanne does come, at least the plywood is close at hand.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:04 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Just looked at the recent buoy data in the Gulf. Max winds in the area are around 21-25kt. Pressures remain fairly high. Wind directions suggest the circulation is close to being closed.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:06 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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>>> The comments on insurance are probably best for another forum but it's all part of the aftermath of a storm when peoples lives are affected and their stress levels go through the roof.
There are a lot of comments better suited to another forum (including many by yours truly), but I've decided to let everything go...I can't imagine what it's like down in Florida as well as the other areas devastated by the 2004 season storms...as long as you don't engage in a personal attack or curse, feel free to post away on whatever suits you (but at least try to make it related to the hurricane season). Stress levels must be at an all time high, and I'm sure many are already suffering post traumatic stress syndrome...
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:08 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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(GOM SST / Buoy wind readings)
Really no indication of closed rotation there, but that's far from the best way to gauge. It's not nearly as visibly rotational as it was looking this morning, but if you look at the 248nm New Orleans NEXRAD, you can almost see some circulation in the cloudmass that's approaching (moving NW I might add) the Louisiana coast.
Really not sure what to make of Jr here. Bear watches all around.
| Grasshopper |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:09 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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You guys have a great site here. Thanks.
I have found your site invaluable through the last few storms. Keep up the good work!
Matt
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:11 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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LI Phil............Mike sent me my password and that won't work either.......now I don't know what to do now.
Looks like it's fixed now.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:11 PM |
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And the broad center of 94L is....
|
at 26.55 N and 88.9 W.... quite evident to me on the vis loop, exposed broad center has no convection, which is all north and east of the center, and getting the crap sheared out of it, southern half of the system remains convection free... not a well developed storm at the moment.. it appears to be moving slowly off to the NW....
use this link, click animination, and zoom high....
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:25 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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Wow, sure enough there it is.
Nice link, thanks.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:27 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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So pretty much what I said earlier... will not be classified any time soon.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:27 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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Long range radar out of NO also shows the present movement of 94L to the NW or perhaps NNW..... could be a temporary relocation of center, I doubt it, per the radar loop a part of this system is now moving to the NW or even NNW currently...
maybe it will split again, part to the NW and another part to the west... its like Ivan is giving birth to triplets.... hehe...
then another will form, and will have Ivan remnants all over the frigging place.... its like a dang bad Steven King novel...
get a grip FP... system looks like a only rainmaker for southern La at the moment....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:32 PM |
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you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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94L does not make a very impressive picture at the moment relative to developing... then again that's OK too.... I'm still getting flashbacks of Camille every time I look at pictures of the florida panhandle...
BTW, Latest run of the NOGAP takes Jeanne to central florida...like they need it....
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wx...prp&tau=084
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:35 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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I am really concerned about Jeanne. Should I be? Could it just be cane jitters????
| CarolinaGurl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:36 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Someone posted a link to the wv loop that you could have the forecast track on it. Does anyone have that link? Thanks. Unfortunately we have a big bullseye on top of us right now, hoping the Cape Fear River doesn't open her mouth and invite Jeanne to come on in.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:39 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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Quote:
I am really concerned about Jeanne. Should I be? Could it just be cane jitters????
Those kind of jitters are reserved for Gators and Seminoles.
With the ridge building the way it is, I am also concerned about Jeanne.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:39 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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Conditions at 42041 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 09/22/2004: Unit of Measure: EnglishMetric Time Zone: Station Local TimeGreenwich Mean Time [GMT]British Summer Time [GMT+1]Eastern Greenland [GMT-1]Azores [GMT-2]Western Greenland [GMT-3]Atlantic Standard [GMT-4]US/Eastern StandardUS/Central StandardUS/Mountain StandardUS/Pacific StandardAlaska Standard [GMT-9]Hawaii-Aleutian Standard [GMT-10]Samoa Standard [GMT-11]International Date Line West [GMT-12]Western European [GMT+0]Central European [GMT+1]Eastern European [GMT+2]Moscow [GMT+3]USSR Zone 3 [GMT+4]USSR Zone 4 [GMT+5]USSR Zone 5 [GMT+6]USSR Zone 6 [GMT+7]China Coast [GMT+8]Japan Standard [GMT+9]Guam Standard [GMT+10]GMT+11International Date Line East [GMT+12]
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 12.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
pressure tendency(ptdy):- 0.09 in (falling rapidly)
Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.2 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.2 °F
This kind of paints a different picture!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:42 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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This is off of the Lake Charles AFD...
---
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
202 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.SYNOPSIS...
A dome of HIGH pressure will be found over the Ohio Valley ridging
southwest across Louisiana. An inverted trough (or wave-in-the-
easterlies) continues to propagate west along the southern periphery
of the HIGH. The inverted trough will enter the coastal waters
tonight; and exit the coastal waters Friday evening.
Note, at press the National Hurricane Center is contemplating naming
this inverted trough; contingent upon the findings of the aircraft.
----
Doesn't sound like they think 94L should be classified as a tropical cyclone...
Thoughts, anyone?
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:43 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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Not those kind of canes, those are my boys!!!!! lol
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:44 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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sure you should be concerned, mostly because of all the grief that the poor state of Florida has gone thought this year, but models are models, they change every run... monitor the situation and then if you get threatened again, take the necessary actions that you need to take to save your possessions, but most importantly, your life… there probably is just as great a probability that you will not get affected as you will get affected, at the moment… if you stay tuned to this web site, at least it will never just sneak up on ya… that’s for sure
Bottom line always listen to what your local emergency agencies are telling you to do...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:46 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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>>> Someone posted a link to the wv loop that you could have the forecast track on it. Does anyone have that link?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
I think it only works with the floaters...after you select your storm, check the box in the upper right hand part of the screen which says "Forecast Points." This will overlay the NHC predicted course with the storm.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
in the above example, I clicked floater 1 WV loop.
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:47 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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Words of wisdom Frank P, words of wisdom. I'm tired or reading about kids in a mobile home killed during a hurricane because the parents didn't get out when told. It makes me sick.
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:48 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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Quote from an e mail......................
"Coastal Weather Research Center Clients,
Ivan has returned to the Gulf as a tropical depression. This system is expected to stay below hurricane force as it moves westward toward the Texas/western Louisiana coastline. BLOHW Model forecasts will begin on this system after a well-defined center is located either by aircraft, weather buoys or satellite.
Hurricane Jeanne is performing a loop in the Atlantic well to the east of Florida. But, Jeanne will soon begin a westward motion toward the southeastern Atlantic coast of the U.S.. There is presently no threat to the Gulf; however, there is a slight risk to eastern Florida.
Most likely, this system will threaten the Carolinas by early next week.
Dr. Keith G. Blackwell
Coastal Weather Research Center
University of South Alabama"
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:49 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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I am still prepared. I have plywood (just took it down), I have a generator, plenty of food, my important stuff is still in plastic containers. And to top it all off I still have 20 gallons of gas still. So I am prepared, just don't like not knowing what she is goingto do. Can you explain that ridge? How does it look?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:55 PM |
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Trust the NHC
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MBfly,
I always get encouraged reading stuff like that, but I WILL ALWAYS TAKE THE WORD OF THE NHC. Jeanne is not a storm anyone in Florida can write off yet...
Stay tuned.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:56 PM |
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Re: you might have nailed it Shawn. thus far
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NRL still shows 94L as invest and if that doesn't change it will not be classified. They seem to have the heads up in these situations and will put them as "no names" right before they are classified.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:56 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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The insurance comment I made yesterday is a real apprehension but I would be glad to send those thoughts to another forum.... just name it...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:57 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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It's fine right where it is...I not gonna make people who have been through 6-7 weeks of hell to have to hunt and peck for the proper forum.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 07:57 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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If it were to be a central florida hit, what strength do you think it would landfall at?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:01 PM |
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Re: And the broad center of 94L is....
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Yesterday I noted that it was open on the south side, but there is a circulation center so it is a low in my opinion...it is shy of the criteria for classification however. the thoughts are it will continue to organize as it goes wnw
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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>>> If it were to be a central florida hit, what strength do you think it would landfall at?
I'm in no way shape or form qualified to answer that question. The mets are the ones who can...
If I had to make an educated GUESS, I'd say that (a) it's not going to hit Central Florida and (b) if it did strike there, it would be as a strong I/weak II.
Do not take anything I say seriously. I am a rank amateur who is learning from all the good folks on this site. Always trust the NHC for the final say.
| CarolinaGurl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:02 PM |
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Re: Tracking 5 systems...
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Thanks for the link LI Phil. I love this site. The information from everyone is very insightful. Easier to understand than the weather guys on TV.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:03 PM |
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94L Recon
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The recon aircraft was going in to 94L at 1600Z right? I thought we might have seen some data by now....
| Staggy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:03 PM |
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Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD
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From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD:
SAT-NEXT WEEK...LATEST 12Z GFS BRINGS JEANNE UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE FL EAST COAST SAT AND SAT NIGHT...BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWARD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT (OR WEST) OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS WHICH TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD FARTHER OFFSHORE. BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT JEANNE WILL TURN TOWARD FL TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...AND CURVE NORTH THIS WEEKEND AT SOME DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. AT EXACTLY WHAT DISTANCE FROM THE FL EAST COAST WILL DETERMINE EXTENT OF OUR WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHERLY WINDS ESP ALG THE COAST AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE. WILL LOOK FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF JEANNE AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS TEMPORARILY DISPLACED FROM THE STATE. AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON-TUE ESP ALONG THE COAST DUE TO OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL AT LEAST DELAY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK...POPS AND DIURNAL TEMPS APPEAR TO RETURN TO MORE OF A
CLIMO REGIME.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:04 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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But you do know a few things..............was leaving this post open for the onsite mets too. Either way I am prepared this time.
Would be nice to sing "Another One Bites The Dust" that is if she were to go out to sea and fall apart.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:07 PM |
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Coastal Weather Research
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When I worked at the Moss Point International Paper Company several years ago we paid USA's Coastal Weather Research about 3k a year as our private consultant for their severe weather and hurricane forecasting capabilities. Their BLOHW model nailed Georges back in 1998 and had it hitting Gulfport 3 days out, which was dead on... it was very costly to shut down a papermill and we needed to get as much information as possible to help us plan for that event...I got know Dr. Bill William on a first name basis as he came out to the mill several times to meet with us, but best of all I could call and talk to him to get personal updates any time we were threatened by hurricanes... It was so cool having them as our hurricane consultants during Danny and Georges.... they do such an OUTSTANDING job.....
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:07 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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Quote:
But you do know a few things..............was leaving this post open for the onsite mets too. Either way I am prepared this time.
Would be nice to sing "Another One Bites The Dust" that is if she were to go out to sea and fall apart.
That would be a lot better than singing "We Will Rock You"
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:10 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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Now that works for CA residents.....................as long as it is jeanne that bites the dust rather than my darn house again or that of the hurricane buddies on here...................
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:10 PM |
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Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD
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How long has Jeanne been with us now???
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:11 PM |
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Re: 94L Recon
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URNT11 KNHC 222000
97779 20004 40300 89600 30100 12018 08513 /3183
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 01
i think this flight is the one headed south to 94l....don't have far to go....
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:12 PM |
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Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD
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A good 9 days but Phil would be better able to answer that............she just overstayed her welcome!
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:13 PM |
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Re: From the 3PM Melbourne, FL AFD
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Quote:
How long has Jeanne been with us now???
This was the first tracking on Jeanne:
21 GMT 09/13/04 16.0N 60.4W 30MPH 1010 Tropical Depression
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:17 PM |
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Re: 94L Recon
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The pressure at this buoy south of Louisiana has been "falling rapidly" for the last two readings... hmmm....
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42041
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:19 PM |
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Re: 94L Recon
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Well, we made it through Ivan!!! Just thankful to have a place of work (1 block from Mobile Bay) to come back to. We live in North Mobile County and I stayed up for the whole storm. Lost two huge trees in the back yard which uprooted some of the piping; we will probably not have any pecans in the orchard this year; lost several more smaller trees; lost shingles on the house; lost insulation from south end of house, as 2 months ago a bad storm took out the north and south end of the eaves on my house (can very much empathize with the insurance co. issue as after 5% wind/hail and depreciation our total came to -125.00); three sheds; and an old basketball goal did some writing on our truck. We had parked the vehicles in one direction, then Ivan turned. This is the first storm I have personally been through since Freddie in '79, but I know in Citronelle, we got at least 100 mph winds. But, we had a shelter (school) across the street with our bags packed and ready to run if necessary. The shelter lost a very long and very new walkway which was built with contributions. Our public schools will open Monday (27th) if they all have power and are in good enough condition. I think everyone in our office now has power!! But, I just walked outside and (we have been having beautiful weather the past few days) the son of Ivan's clouds are just overhanging in the skies and very still (very eerie). Thank you to this site for all of the very helpful information you provide. And, we have been very very blessed considering.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:24 PM |
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Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Anybody notice how much Jeanne is getting her act together? And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:27 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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CAT II AND IT IS ON TRACK
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:30 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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The southwest movement is right on track up to this point. NHC predicted she would move to 26.0/68.9, moving more or less SW, and she's right about there.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Well Jeanne has to roll through a southwesterly bearing on the way around to her northwesterly projection... let's all hope she just keeps a'swinging on around and ends up more northerly...
Doesn't look like that will be the case though... all the 18Z model runs seem to be complete, with a definite trend of the models being westward, toward the east coast of FL.
AdmittedHacker
-----------------------------
(still no witty phrase to insert here)
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:31 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Quote:
Anybody notice how much Jeanne is getting her act together? And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news.
I was hoping for a quicker turn to the West vs the SW she is currently on. The good news is that the convection isn't too strong. (for now) But the outflow looks decent. The further South she goes the harder it will be to turn her out to sea.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:38 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Whew, finally back after taking a short break for college/pro/fantasy football. Now that Jeanne has decided to swing back this way I figured I better check in.
Her eye has definitely gotten easier to see on the sat loops, but I think it was always there, just was getting covered by clouds a bit. Like was stated in the 11am discussion. She appears to be on track as it looks like she's jogged just a bit more SW than S in the last few frames. Though, like has been the pattern this season, we'll have to see if it's a wobble or a trend. Now we just get to wait for a turn to the W, then NW, then N. The ridging to the north and northwest of her is clearly visible, and how strong/when it pushes out to the east will determine when she gets steered northward.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:38 PM |
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Re: recon
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recon just about to 94L..... dropping in alt...
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:40 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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Quote:
MBfly,
I always get encouraged reading stuff like that, but I WILL ALWAYS TAKE THE WORD OF THE NHC. Jeanne is not a storm anyone in Florida can write off yet...
Stay tuned.
Actually, I was more interested in the part that said " Ivan has returned to the Gulf as a tropical depression."
Has a hurricane/TS ever done this before ?............ gone inland that far and then looped back around and (almost) redeveloped to strike once again
Ivan is now older than dirt -- time for him to DIE ! 
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:41 PM |
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Re: recon
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Quote:
recon just about to 94L..... dropping in alt...
Is 94L the "son of ivan in the gulf?"
All of these storms are getting me dizzy....
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:43 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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I AGREE 100%. I KNOW YOU ALL IN FL KNOW WHAT IT FEELS LIKE TO HAVE STORMS BACK TO BACK. BUT, I NEVER THOUGHT IN A MILLION YEARS THAT IVAN WOULD COME BACK INTO MY BACK YARD (GOM) AGAIN.
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:48 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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"And she's moving southwest...this can't be good news."
_________________________________________________
I think I'm gonna be sick. ..
and I just PM'd you with such a nice compliment too.
Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south. OK?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: recon
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
on left and upper left under atlantic.....should help with who is who.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Maybe she will just keep spinning in circles?
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:50 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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5pm out on Jeanne. Not good. We are back in the darn cone again. I don't like when they say "should" stay off the coast.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:51 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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>>> Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south.
We up here ON Long Island have been sucking for a really long time!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:52 PM |
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Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00
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This is just too close for comfort...
Jeanne 5 Day
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:53 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion
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...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE
NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO
THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC
STATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND
THE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT
EASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL
MOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE
TRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE
NHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING
OFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS....
Ridge is confusing NHC computers again !
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:53 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Quote:
>>> Maybe if you all start sucking in reeeaaalllyy hard up there in Long Island you could stop Jeanne from going any further south.
We up here ON Long Island have been sucking for a really long time!
From those of us who hate the Islanders, Rangers, Yankees and Jets: WE KNOW
Sorry couldn't let that one go. Used to live in N Jersey
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:55 PM |
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Re: Trust the NHC
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As of 5pm Jeanne was located at 26.1N/69.0W A good move to the SW from the 11AM position. Now it depends on what the ridge to the northwest of her does. Most of the models have shifted westward due to them forecasting the ridge to move slower than had been anticipated. However, like we have seen all season many times the models have had trouble forecasting the strength and movement of the troughs and ridges. Once again it's a wait and see type of approach.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:55 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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What about the Knicks?
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:56 PM |
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Re: recon
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Quote:
Is 94L the "son of ivan in the gulf?"
All of these storms are getting me dizzy....
Yup... in case you're looking for it, here is the website where you can find info on the various invests (94L, etc.):
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Mike beat me to it...
Several months ago, someone (HankFrank?) posted a very good explanation about the invest numbers... if I find it, I'll send it your way...
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:56 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...what CAT at 5:00?
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Well suck harder darn it!!! She's back to 26.1....smack dab even with me and pretty darn close to WXMANRITCHIE.....!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: recon
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Recon is consistantly reporting flight level winds at or above 33kts. Last 2 reports were 39kts and 33 kts respectively.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM |
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Sucking hard
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>>> Well suck harder darn it!!!
BTW, I responded to your PM...
This one is definitely going in a future "GEMS" comedy bit!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 08:59 PM |
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Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion
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This is a little misleading regarding staying offshore throughout the period. While that may be true, it looks like a NC landfall not long after 120 hrs.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:00 PM |
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Well Well.........
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING LATE SO WILL BE BRIEF. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE
REMNANTS OF IVAN. A RECON IS ENROUTE BUT DELAYED AND SHOULD BE
WITHIN THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
BEEN SHOWING A FLAREUP OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE GRADIENT FLOW AND A DEFINITE MID-LEVEL
SWIRL AROUND 26.6N 88.9W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
SOUTH AND WEST SIDE. HURRICANE CENTER HAS ADVISED THAT IF SITUATION
PROMPTS AN UPGRADE OR DESIGNATION...IT WOULD BE NAMED IVAN!
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:01 PM |
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Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00
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do you really think that she is going to make that sharp turn after day 3 or so to the NW-NNW?
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:05 PM |
Re: Jeanne...5pm Discussion
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A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT.
Why does that sound so familiar? Uuuummm lets see? I just know I have read that before...maybe along about Aug 31 ya think!?
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:10 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
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By contrast, here's what Houston/Galveston has to say....
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
.DISCUSSION...
WE SHALL RAISE THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS
PASS TO A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. THIS WILL OUT AT 4 PM CDT. COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
CHANNEL. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR SCA CRITERIA AS PER BUOYS 019 AND
035. WE SHALL CONTINUE WITH SCA FOR COASTAL WATERS...GALVESTON BAY...
WITH CAUTION FOR MATAGORDA BAY. DISTURBANCE OVER NORTH CENTRAL GULF
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY.
PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO TWO INCHES BY LATE THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF
CWFA. MAIN LIFT SHOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
AS TROUGH LINE MOVES THROUGH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER LATER ON
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTH BUT SOUTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN AS MOISTURE
POOLING CONTINUE OVER SW ZONES AND SOUTHWARD TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EXTENDED
PORTION OF CWFHGX AND ZFPHGX.
---
They refer to it only as a "disturbance"...
For yet another take on the situation, the AFD from Corpus Christi has a pretty good discussion posted. It's a little long, so I'll just post the link:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/productview.php?pil=CRPAFDCRP&version=0
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:11 PM |
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Re: recon
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Is there going to be a 5"00 advisory? as of yet its a 4:00.
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:16 PM |
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Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00
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Yeah gawd ouch I can almost hear the wind now!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:18 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
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My post at 3:11 as to the center of 94L
"center at 26.55 N and 88.9 W.... quite evident to me on the vis loop, exposed broad center has no convection, which is all north and east of the center"
New Orleans 3:30 AFD at 3:30
SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN SHOWING A FLAREUP OF CONVECTION PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN SIDE....
DEFINITE MID-LEVEL SWIRL AROUND 26.6N 88.9W WITH VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE.
It probably moved .5 degrees during the time difference... hehe
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:20 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
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Frank, you're on a roll these days...tell us more about Jeanne.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:22 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
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All of these NWS offices are waiting on the NHC to do their thing thats why some of the AFD's are so late. The NHC is waiting on recon which was late getting out so expect some special discusions later. Recon was just about to the center a short time ago so it's just a matter of time and I would be very surprised if it is not upgraded to a least a depression. So far FL winds have been between 30 and 40 knots and I'm sure there are some higher gusts in the heavier convection north of the center so upgrade to TS is not out of the question., you know how antsy the NHC gets with a system that is close to land.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:26 PM |
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From The TWO....
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SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:27 PM |
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94L and the winds
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but they still haven't found a closed circulation. It will not be classified until they do and I don't think that will happen tonight.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:27 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
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I got my Ivan hat on Phil.... get to Jean tonight... want a hint... look at the Canadian runs...
Per the NHC at 5:00 Yo Shawn
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH HAS BEEN
DETERMINED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO BE THE REMNANT OF
IVAN...MAY BE REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SQUALLS WITH
GUSTS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING NEAR THE
LOUISIANA COAST. IF A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE... CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE SYSTEM...DETERMINES THAT A CYCLONE HAS REFORMED...ADVISORIES ON
IVAN WILL BE REINITIATED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST AND
OVER ADJACENT WATERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM AND BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS...IF NECESSARY.
| ErinAndOpal95 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:28 PM |
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Back up after 7 Days down!
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I guess I should change my username to ErinOpalAndIvan now. I help my folks find their house in Pensacola this weekend. You can't believe how bad it is until you have seen it first hand. Most of the place is still primitive (no water, no power, no news and lots of frustration).
Sorry for posting here in the middle of Jeanne talk. I am starving for news.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:28 PM |
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Recon
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Recon has found a weak SW (230 degrees) wind in the partial remnants of Ivan. So an upgrade/reclassification before 11 pm is not out of the question.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:29 PM |
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Re: From The TWO....
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sorry for the double post... Teal61 beat me to it...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:30 PM |
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Re: Well Well.........
|
Not luck in your case Frank.................good planning is what keeps your forecasts quite accurate.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:31 PM |
|
|
2 Thoughts/Points
|
#1. I cannot believe NHC would reclassify Ivan...haven't the people who've been through Ivan1 had enough without worrying about Ivan2 in the GOM.
#2. Granted that no watches have been posted, but with "Ivan" and Jeanne as close to the US as they are, wouldn't you think they'd be going to intermediate advisories?
Dems my two cents.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:32 PM |
|
Shawn...
|
All you have to do is look at the sat loops (Frank posted a link to a good one earlier) to know that there is a closed circulation out there. Bouy reports support a closed center also. It's there and it's very likely Ivan will be back shortly.
Oh yeah, Joe B is da man, this time anyway.
West winds found....
URNT11 KNHC 222115
97779 21154 40266 88700 02700 23015 25222 /0009 42215
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 07
;
URNT11 KNHC 222128
97779 21284 40261 89300 02800 28013 25208 /0010 42615
RMK AF963 4409A INVEST OB 08
I had no doubts anyway.
Looks to be about 1008mb or so.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:35 PM |
|
|
track
|
wow.....just watched twc on ivan......they showed last 5-7 days.....ivan came ashore....went ne.... got to western nc and seem it wanted to go see his sis coming up from south and he made a run for the east coast of nc...while most convection left to the ne.... once he got to the atlantic....knew he had to go south.... passed REAL close to jeanne off florida and they split....one went east, one went west... now known as 94l.... it has crossed ivan's old path.....and its just a matter of time it should arrive in texas in few days....but looking at some sats... i see more on nnw spin towards new orleans than west.....just waiting on recon....first day of fall....could there be 4 named storms? it will be ivan if it forms!!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:37 PM |
|
Re: Shawn...
|
Well recon definitely has found a closed low now, unless I'm really misunderstanding the data---but from the satellites, I wasn't convinced....thought it might just be a mid-level circulation.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:41 PM |
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|
JB
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>>> Oh yeah, Joe B is da man, this time anyway.
Did you see his afternoon post?
Frank-I don't like Canadians!
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:41 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne-CAT II at 5:00
|
Short term forecast for Jeanne seems more certain, but after 84 hours all bets are off. Heres my take on forecast... High pressure to north and northwest of Jeanne will allow her to move WSW-Westward next 84 hours or so, this seems reasonable given that a trough and area of low pressure over the plains states will move NE into Canada allowing the ridge to the east to elongate blocking Jeanne from moving north. Although as trough pulls further east this may allow for ridge to weaken and take Jeanne on a more NW or north track. I feel confident that there will be a NW-N movement the question is when? Its really a timing issue that will likley be watching this weekend as it moves into northern Bahama islands.
Strength...Jeanne looks as though it will battle with some dry air basically all around although shear will remain somewhat in check through the short term, Long term shear looks to increase from the SW allowing for a steadying or slight weakening. I like NHC strength forecast but could make CAT 3 status for a time during next 84 hours or so.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM |
|
First outerbands approach MS coast and NO
|
Link shows the NO radar loop and the first outer bands approaching the MS coast and NO associated with Ivan part deaux..
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.klix.shtml
radar still shows the concentrated rain band associated with this system in the GOM moving mostly N to NNW
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM |
|
|
Re: From The TWO....
|
Sorry if this has been already posted, don't have the time to read all the posts. Anyway I noticed that the models were making the Azores ridge up to Omega blocking strength a couple days ago and that's what it's doing, the GFS nailed it. This is some nightmarish forecast first of all with Jeanne, everything is going to come to a near halt because of this blocking upstream. Model guidance is suggesting that the storm will move westward how much is a variable, after it's done with it's loop, then it will start to recurve (another variable angle of recurving) and the motion of the storm yet another variable. Now you might be saying "well Keith we always have many variables with hurricanes", yes your totally right but to some extent. The placement of these upper level features is a real pain in the neck when you have upstream blocking.
The remnants of "Ivan" are back from the dead. This storm will form some type of a hybird system with convection reserved to the north portion of the storm. The ULL in that area of Ivan will be moving in "retro" as I like to say and will prob collaspe the steering currents once in nears the Texas coast, sort of a Ginger. No matter how strong this system might be, the collaspe of the steering currents will insure a lot of rain and flooding along the landfall area. The Texas Coast should put up a bear watch as Frank P. says.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM |
|
Re: Shawn...
|
I'm gonna stop watching the local weather. They said they were in there but couldn't find the circulation to be closed and maybe it would be classified tomorrow. I figured if they didn't find it now they wouldn't find it later tonight,either.
I should just trust you guys from now on...lol
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:42 PM |
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Re: track
|
I'm wondering about that movement. Looking at the latest zoomed in loop, there is some convection building just north of the llcc and I'm wondering if the center is being pulled up under that convection. Or is it a true movement to the NNW?
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:44 PM |
|
Re: From The TWO....
|
Does anyone have a guess what the chances of "the son of Ivan" or "Ivan" coming back to hit generally the same area again? Has this ever happened before? Just wondering since (like I said) my office is 1 block from Mobile Bay. Just concerns me when they include "North Central Gulf".
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:46 PM |
|
|
Re: Jeanne animated path
|
To ease the wait (and frustration), here's another Skeetobite exclusive: (made this while testing animated "actual" paths versus NHC 3 & 5 day projections... interesting stuff coming soon)
http://www.skeetobite.com/FLHurricane/jeanne_flash.htm
requires Flash plug-in. The page should prompt you automatically if your browser needs it.
BTW- the windfields for hurricane (red) and tropical storm (blue) force winds are to scale in this image.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:47 PM |
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|
|
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points
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Quote:
#1. I cannot believe NHC would reclassify Ivan...haven't the people who've been through Ivan1 had enough without worrying about Ivan2 in the GOM.
I understand that the name "Ivan" is a sensitive subject... but it really doesn't matter what the thing is called... It's still there...
Quote:
#2. Granted that no watches have been posted, but with "Ivan" and Jeanne as close to the US as they are, wouldn't you think they'd be going to intermediate advisories?
I agree... If 94L gets classified, and watches/warnings go up at 11:00PM (or even later), most people won't know until in the morning....
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:49 PM |
|
94L and the Front
|
I was wondering all along about how far west 94L could get considering the front that is poised to come through in a couple of days. I didn't say anything because I didn't want to throw out one of those stupid ideas I get quite often.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:49 PM |
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|
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Re: 2 Thoughts/Points
|
The NHC is back to their super conservative hurricane rating's. Sometimes I just don't get them?
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:50 PM |
|
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points
|
LI Phil, That would be a wonderful thing for them to do. My office and home are soooo tired of me and my weather. They think I'm a "weather freak" and my boss tells me it's worse than cocaine. But, like you said, we in the GOM really do need to be informed about this. We have been so busy trying to get back to normal (not yet) and our local guys are playing all of the systems off like "nothing for us to worry about". I think they just don't want to scare us before they really know what's going on. Although, they all look very tired after staying on 24/7 with TV and the radios kicked in and had the news on the radio instead of regular programming for those with no power. PLEASE IVAN GO AWAY AND STAY AWAY!!!!!
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:50 PM |
Re: Jeanne animated path
|
Hey, it's almost like skeetobite pong!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:51 PM |
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|
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Re: Jeanne animated path
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Skeeter you are something else.
ROFLMFAO!
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:51 PM |
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Ivan and 94L
|
NRL has Ivan back up again ALONG WITH 94L
Huh???
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:52 PM |
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|
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Re: track
|
low level on goes east close up appears under convection now.... perfect time, cuz recon will make another pass very shortly, if not already.... i think its ivan again now....there is a weak low level cir. with most storms to the north..... jeanne....12z on nogaps!!!!!!! frances repeat?
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:52 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne animated path
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I don't have flash so could u pm me and give me the gist of what he was showing us? (skeeter)
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:54 PM |
|
Re: track
|
Upon further review of Frank P's super dooper satellite looper...I think you can pick out the llcc moving wnw. That convection I was speaking of has been blown off to the north.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:54 PM |
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|
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Re: Jeanne animated path
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Cute Skeet!
Just move that big yellow circle a little to the right, and we'll all be much happier!
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:55 PM |
|
Re: Jeanne animated path
|
Da Skeeter.... awesome graphics.... best forecast of the year....
Hey, who posted in early August that this was going to be a slow season.... YEAH RIGHT..
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:56 PM |
|
|
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Re: recon
|
Latest report-observation #9- Winds variable at 5kts. Appears to be the SW quadrant. I don't think this will verify as a closed circulation, as per NHC/TPC. I wouldn't want to be in the northern GOM though. New Orleans looks like they might have a rainy night in Louisiana.
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:57 PM |
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Re: 94L and the Front
|
That is exactly the way I feel. I thought with the front moving west to east and the high in the east, where does that leave us (Northern GOM)? (I guess in the middle lol)???????
| lilyv |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 09:59 PM |
|
Re: recon
|
Ivan's back at the Navy site.
This is just bizarre.
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:00 PM |
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|
|
Re: Ivan and 94L
|
Quote:
NRL has Ivan back up again ALONG WITH 94L
Huh???
Beats me....
I suppose they're getting ready to start re-issuing advisories on Ivan (*cringe*), but aren't yet ready to drop the "94L" designation.
| SoonerShawn |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:01 PM |
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Look What I Found!!!!
|
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:03 PM |
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|
July 31, 2004
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>>> Hey, who posted in early August that this was going to be a slow season.... YEAH RIGHT..
Well, I didn't find that post, but I did reread what was posted on July 31. To quote one of the best wordsmiths ever,
"Wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then." (Bonus points to the first poster to name the artist and title.)
I was all giddy about TD1 forming and becoming Alex..even popped some "celebratory champagne"...someone doubted whether Alex would "survive." The boards were swarming in anticipation.
Amazing how sobering a little hurricane season can make you in a short time...
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
Yeah now we pop open champagne for those that go spin fish and miss land.....................I am seeing a daytona beach or cape canaveral hit out of Jeanne.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: July 31, 2004
|
against the wind.....Bob Segar
Actually it's Seger, but I'll give it to you anyway
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM |
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Re: sat
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last sat i saw.....convection coming up out of center....major shear.... i think nhc will issue a weak ivan, winds 35mph
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and 94L
|
Quote:Quote:
NRL has Ivan back up again ALONG WITH 94L
Huh???
Beats me....
I suppose they're getting ready to start re-issuing advisories on Ivan (*cringe*), but aren't yet ready to drop the "94L" designation.
Should be interesting/amusing fodder for us to look and ponder their track for ivan from the time they stopped updating the site to when they restarted advisories...
Mark
| Mooshie-SC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:05 PM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
The current NOAA track is beginning to look threatening to SC. What do you guys, the experts, think about the track shifting any more to the west and possibly landfalling in NE SC?
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:07 PM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
I thought it looked more like a central florida hit rather than sc.........let's hope it does not get your way. Was up there recently and saw the flooding from other storms.........you simply do not need this.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:08 PM |
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Re: Ivan and 94L
|
94L not there now.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:09 PM |
|
Weird observation re Ivan
|
Ivan goes inland for Rosh Hashanah last week.
This week, Yom Yippur starts Friday night...
What are the odds???
'shana
Edited to add:
Local news in Austin TX leadoff story ... the return of Ivan...
sigh.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and 94L
|
My hope is that Jeanne will weaken to a TS, head toward my area, and stall out offshore as a depression or storm with a stalled cold front to the north
The more likely scenario is that it will strengthen, head toward my area, and more north to hit between Savannah and Cape Fear (i agree with the NHC forecast to 96 hours, but do not think it will turn northeast after that)
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:12 PM |
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Re: Ivan and 94L
|
Rabbit do you think late sat afternoon is when we can expect this gal to be sitting off our coast? I live in northern brevard county.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:18 PM |
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|
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Re: Ivan and 94L
|
I live in Titusville (also in N Brevard)
I think Sunday morning between 8am and Noon will be the closest point
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 PM |
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|
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Re: Ivan and 94L
|
recon found pressure of 1009?
winds around 35kts?
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:27 PM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
LI Phil.....
I would have guessed Toby Keith. Oh wait, Bob Seger, Toby Keith, both sing a song with "some" of the same lyrics. Kind of like Ivan and Ivan2, similar but very different?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ivan and 94L
|
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT WED SEP 22 2004
...A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL HANCOCK COUNTY...
AND COASTAL AREAS OF ST. BERNARD AND ORLEANS PARISH...AND GRAND
ISLE...
...A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKES MAUREPAS AND
PONTCHARTRAIN...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COAST WESTWARD THROUGH TERREBONNE PARISH...
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE RESULTING FROM INTERACTION OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. TIDES ARE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREA WITH ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES OCCURRING
DURING THE EARLY EVENING....
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=LIXCFWNEW
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:33 PM |
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Re: July 31, 2004
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>>> LI Phil.....
I would have guessed Toby Keith. Oh wait, Bob Seger, Toby Keith, both sing a song with "some" of the same lyrics. Kind of like Ivan and Ivan2, similar but very different?
It's funny you say that because Daniel just PMed me with Toby Keith lyrics, which either intentionally or not, have the identical line. Right now I'm trying to ascertain who wrote them first...it's gotta be Seger.
| DMFischer |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:36 PM |
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|
Re: Central Florida Hit..Holy Molly!
|
*@#%*#
It's funny (not really) but I told my son last night that I was getting that feeling again in the pit of my stomach....like with Charley and Frances. Anyway I do not know enough YET to do all the projections ya'll can do, but I have that internal barometer that says this is a very very hinky situation!
To make things even worse, my daughter has girl scout camping this weekend, leaving friday. Fort Wilderness. (banging head on the desk) Going to be a tense few days while we watch this thing. Trust me, I do NOT want to tell this child her yearly camping trip is being pulled because of another hurricane.
Someone pay alms to mother nature, please!
| Redbird |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:36 PM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
Country music does sing to our basic fears and desires right? Although I see you more as a Neil Diamond fan.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:37 PM |
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Re recon
|
URNT12 KNHC 222202
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2202Z
B. 26 DEG 56 MIN N
89 DEG 20 MIN W
C. NA
D. 30 KT
E. 318 DEG 029 NM
F. 038 DEG 35 KT
G. 314 DEG 036 NM
H. EXTRAP 1008 MB
I. 23 C/ 271 M
J. 24 C/ 302 M
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/1
O. .1/10 NM
P. AF963 4409A INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 35 KT NW QUAD 2153Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500FT.
SFC CNTR 144/007NM FROM FL CNTR. MAX FL TEMP 25C 097/13NM
FROM FL CNTR.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:40 PM |
|
|
|
Neil Diamond???
|
>>> Country music does sing to our basic fears and desires right? Although I see you more as a Neil Diamond fan.
Puh-lease. How old do you think I am anyway? I like almost all types of music, including good old country & western, cried when Johnny Cash died...and how schweet is it that Hank does the MNF intro?
Now, if you had said Perry Como, Neil Sedaka, Engelburt Humperdink...you might have had a point
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:42 PM |
|
He's BACK!
|
WTNT24 KNHC 222234
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 67
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2300Z WED SEP 22 2004
AT 6 PM CDT...2300Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOUISIANA WESTWARD TO SARGENT TEXAS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 89.3W AT 22/2300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 89.3W AT 22/2300Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 88.8W
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 10:43 PM |
|
Re: He's BACK!
|
So it is official now?
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 2 Thoughts/Points
|
My office and home are soooo tired of me and my weather. They think I'm a "weather freak" and my boss tells me it's worse than cocaine. PLEASE IVAN GO AWAY AND STAY AWAY!!!!!
ROFL !! I resemble that remark !
I have gotten VERY good at hitting the alt/tab key in the blink of an eye to make it look like I'm working while spending most of my time here !!!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:05 PM |
|
|
|
NEW THREAD
|
Mike just posted a new thread.
BTW, I'm forwarding your last post to your employer!
| Kent |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:08 PM |
|
Re: Weird observation re Ivan
|
The Jewish holidays a good theory....hmmm
Or maybe its a political thing. Any other Floridians happen to notice the absence of campaiging down here? I just heard on the news that Hurricanes have put a serious damper on the campaign trail in Florida. And boy we are a wanted state right? With the voting fiasco of 2000 can you imagine what it would be like for us right now? We'd be bombarded with some very animated people telling us why we should vote for THEIR candidate. Everyday it would be Watch out!
REPUBLICAN on your RIGHT & a DEMOCRAT on your LEFT
REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT
REPUBLICAN DEMOCRAT
RIGHT Left
Right Left
Anyone seeing a pattern here?
Ivan on your Left Jeanne on your right
Ivan Jeanne
Ivan Jeanne
Coincidence?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:25 PM |
|
Re: He's BACK!
|
weird...yesterday on Fox 35 in Orlando during one of the morning weather updates a person from NHC was on the phone with Jim Van Fleet and that person mentioned it woudlnt be named Ivan if what was then over Florida formed into a storm regardless if it was a piece of him or not.
He said since it wasnt the actual core of Ivan it would get a new name...
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:32 PM |
|
|
Re: Weird observation re Ivan
|
no but I vote for jeanne.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Sep 22 2004 11:36 PM |
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Re: He's BACK!
|
I also saw that broadcast here in Orlando. I thought the NHC said that they would not say until it actually happened. That it would depend on whether or not the remnants could be definitevly retraced to Ivan or not. If so, would be an Ivan. If not, it would be Matthew. Perhaps I heard wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Sep 23 2004 04:09 AM |
|
Re: July 31, 2004
|
against the wind of course, by bob seger