MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Oct 29 2004 04:54 PM
October Nearing a Close

After Matthew the activity has really dropped off this month, leaving historically only the Caribbean to watch for the remained of the season. It appears the Florida madness was just in August and September, leaving October to be very slow.

And I am glad for this.

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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Oct 29 2004 06:59 PM
Re: October Nearing a Close

I second that emotion!

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Oct 29 2004 09:39 PM
Re: October Nearing a Close

The initial disturbance part of the wave is now reentering the Atlantic with convection breaking out all over. The models are showing an increase in pressures over the eastern pacific which will generate a persistent trof over South America and get some convergence going and may very well produce a storm. The current disturbance is showing some good inflow as well as some outflow but not organized. The front that passed over really made everything “cloudy” as to what was what but it appears to be centered in the mid-to-upper level atmosphere. If this disturbance(s) persist overnight we may very well see a invest, but who knows; the NHC has been very hard to predict lately. I would be of slightest bit concerned that this could possibly be affecting us later, if some vortmax comes over the ridge placed in the west and collaborates with it.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Oct 31 2004 08:52 PM
a lot of color down there suddenly

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Oct 31 2004 10:45 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly

I'm seeing two more systems form one of the tropical nature and one of the sub-tropical nature. The development off Florida could be a possiblity, nothing now but in the upcoming days a cold front will traverse the area and really retrograte the ridging and create a nice pressure difference. If this goes happen, I will have to personally thank the model makers.
The other storm, which seems to be materlizing at the moment is in the Carribbean. The wave seems to be stuck, and another wave is moving slowly but surely behind it. If the two converge and mid-level shear decreases then we could very well see the last storm of the season. This activity seems like it will be correlated with the MJO which is no entering the Atlantic Basin in the upcoming days.
BTW had way to many trick-or-treaters, over a 100 at least!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Nov 01 2004 05:08 AM
4 Storms Retired This Year?

It apears that all four hurricanes that struck Florida this year will be retired. Here is an excerpt from the Tampa National Weather Service Website in their 2004 Hurricane Season Summary Report:

Each storm that struck Florida has, or will be, retired. Dollar damages from Charley alone made it the 2nd most costly hurricane in real dollars (Andrew was number 1; Hugo may eventually become number two in adjusted dollars). Dollar damages from Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne will likely place each in the top five or six; the intensity of Ivan and the unfortunate death toll from Jeanne in Haiti automatically qualify those names for retirement.

--Lou

P.S. Sorry I souldn't log in..there is some trouble with the site not retaining my log in command


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Nov 01 2004 08:30 PM
Get out and VOTE!

FOR the candidate of your choice!!!!

With the election tomorrow, everyone is excited for their candidate, and rightly so. These comments belong in the Everything and Nothing forum.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 02 2004 01:12 AM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly

Watching the SE IR loops. Convective cluster in the Yucatan Channel/ Southern GoM is drifting northward and maintaining a slight increase in convective activity, through0015Z.
Southern end of trough currently moving through the ARKLATX, is beginning to build offshore south of Galveston,TX. Interaction between trough and convective cluster 'could' bring some moderate to heavy rain to the MSALFL coast areas. Will check with TPC,HPC and SPC on progs.
http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellit...le&itype=wv

Much cooler air forecast for the latter part of this week Should bring the '04 season to an abrupt halt. I think everyone will be glad to see it pass.


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Nov 02 2004 11:04 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly

The trof that is digging down in the western atlantic is really creating an un-favorable area for development. It should relax in the upcoming days, and then we could really see some development. There gives me no reason for the enhanced convection coming off the South America coast to not form a tropical system, the models are not to thrilled with the idea of anything developing but they can change. The Gulf Coast might be in for a late suprise...with the placement of the sub-tropical high where it is.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Nov 03 2004 12:06 AM
cast a vote for no more storms

we're at that time of year where the chances at further activity are getting very bleak. aside from a september lingerer and a pair of hybrid type systems near the secondary peak, there have been no more named storms (though a convincing argument could be made that there were a couple of other subtropical systems later in october) in the last month.
the backing with ridging-type pattern needed to trip a west caribbean system hasn't made a convincing appearance.. which isn't to say that it still can't happen, but the chances of a purely tropical system in the atlantic basin are getting close to nil now. a good blocking pattern in the north atlantic could drop one of those deep layer systems down in between bermuda and the azores and give us one more to follow, but it's looking like the landfall threat for the u.s. is all but gone now. otto may still show up, but don't expect to meet him personally.
it's time to start thinking 2005.. check the expected indices and look at some analogs to start getting your ideas for next year.. late in the month i'll post a forum thread for early predictions. most everybody did better than me with their seasonal forecast.. i'll be looking to peg '05.
take it easy, y'all.
HF 2356z02november


LI Phil
(User)
Wed Nov 03 2004 12:34 AM
Visit the E&N Forum...

...if you have any thoughts regarding tonight's election results.

One vote we'll probably all unanimously cast is a vote for no more storms!

"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...we don't get fooled again." GWB


javlin
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 03 2004 04:49 PM
Re: BOC ?

Looks like a litttle cluster being left behind by the front maybe.See if it continues to hang out for awhile.

James88
(Weather Master)
Wed Nov 03 2004 08:12 PM
Re: BOC ?

Well, something certainly seems to be lingering there. Convection has diminished somewhat, though. It is over reasonably warm water, but dry air is not far away. To be completely honest, I wouldn't expect much from those thunderstorms, but hey - i might be wrong.

Ricreig
(User)
Thu Nov 04 2004 10:04 PM
Re: a lot of color down there suddenly

Quote:


Much cooler air forecast for the latter part of this week Should bring the '04 season to an abrupt halt. I think everyone will be glad to see it pass.


I think (thankfully) that it already has.

BTW, you nut, thanks for tracking down this old fuddy-duddy and ensuring I am still alive. I, like many others in the Orlando, Florida area, was pretty burnt out on hurricane and other tropical weather, and when the season suddenly shut down, it was so blessedly quiet that I took the opportunity to chill-out from weather related activities and heal some internal emotional wounds induced by this hell of a season just past. When one evacuates their home 4 times in one season, in just a tad over a month, and each time, not knowing if there will be anything left to come back to, it kinda gets to you in the head a bit. Couple that with the fact that I am teaching a couple of new (to me) courses at High-Tech, I just divorced myself from everything not immediately concerned with restoring some sense of normalcy.

Your call to my boss in your quest to locate me and check on my well-being, reminded me that I made a lot of friends here in this forum, not only in the past, but especially this year. You and I, having 'met' during/after Camille were reaquainted. I was wrong to simply abandon this forum and my friends here even though at the time, I became totally immersed in 'reestablishing normalcy'. Normalcy, for me, jincludes contact with friends, both here in this forum and in person where possible.

So Danny, forgive me for causing you concern, thank you for caring and to the rest of you don't forget your obligations to your friends as I did. Friends are the reason we exist when it comes down to it. Otherwise, we are just other creatures inhabiting this spaceship, Earth. It is our friends that make it a life.

Keep in touch
Richard


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Nov 04 2004 10:19 PM
CFHC family...Danny rules!

I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet...there's a reason it extends to November 30. I sure HOPE it's done (then I nail my TS/H numbers!).

Richard, great post! I think that's the way a lot of us feel.

Danny & I had been exchanging a bunch of PMs recently, and his concern for your well being was mentioned in many of them. He even sent me a special PM to let me know he had tracked you down and that you were OK.

Danny's a great guy! He also was a great help to Coop when Coop lost a good buddy in a helicopter crash a couple of weeks ago.

And he almost single-handedly acted as moderator (before he even WAS a moderator) and helped me out immensely during the major canes...he was your overnight god! He also helped me keep whatever little sanity I have left!

Keep in touch!


Ricreig
(User)
Thu Nov 04 2004 11:00 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!

Quote:

I'm not quite ready to throw in the towel on the season just yet...there's a reason it extends to November 30. I sure HOPE it's done (then I nail my TS/H numbers!).

Richard, great post! I think that's the way a lot of us feel.

Danny & I had been exchanging a bunch of PMs recently, and his concern for your well being was mentioned in many of them. He even sent me a special PM to let me know he had tracked you down and that you were OK.

Danny's a great guy! He also was a great help to Coop when Coop lost a good buddy in a helicopter crash a couple of weeks ago.

And he almost single-handedly acted as moderator (before he even WAS a moderator) and helped me out immensely during the major canes...he was your overnight god! He also helped me keep whatever little sanity I have left!

Keep in touch!


I was 'ready' to throw in the towel after Charley , but I know what you mean. Yes, there is a reason the season goes well into November as it does and statistically, you can argue the case and win, but I think this was an unusual season, shattering the statistics and setting records, so why shouldn't we graciously accept that this season might just well be over despite the statistical chances suggesting it might not be. I'll not look a gift horse in the mouth. The weather patterns in place don't suggest much of a chance remains that things will fire up again this season...they could, but I am not expecting anything at this point. Could it happen? Yes, but will it? Probably not given the current wx patterns.

As to Danny: Yes, he is an asset both to this forum and to those he chooses to let into his sphere i\of friendship. I have found him to be a very genuine and warm human being and a credit to himself and his associates. I well know the job of being a defacto/surrigate moderator. A couple of times during the times you got much deserved rest, and before Danny received his calling, you may remember that I spent several long nights here trying desperately to say the right things to often very worried, scared even, visitors to, and members of this forum. Unlike you and Danny though, I had to evacuate before the storms, and even if I had wanted to, I couldn't have done the job you guys do and did. This board is probably the best of all of the similar boards, and it is so because of peoplle like you and Danny and the others that do so much. But, in the long run, what really makes it stand out is its members, their skill and knowledge is combined in a truly remarkable way and produces something that is valuable way above the sum of its parts. Danny is certainly one of the parts I consider an asset. I think that every one he touches, benefits.

You Phil, sane or not, are another of the parts that made a difference to hundreds, maybe even more, of people in what proved to be very trying times this season. By good moderation, you enabled, encouraged and helped provide good and timely information and advice to a lot of people that really needed it. It wasn't a luxury for many of us, to have this board, it was a necessity and a needed resource. This board provided good information and much needed advice that probably saved more lives than you will ever know about because of the good information and advice enabling good decisions when those decisions *Had* to be good ones or life or limb would be in peril.

You, Danny, and many others here in this forum are a family of sorts, and that has a value too great to even comprehend. I am privileged to be in some small way, a part of this family of wise men and women.

Thank YOU, Danny and all of the others here in my surrigate family. Thanks for being here, for your knowledge, forecasts, compassion and most important: Your caring friendship.


LI Phil
(User)
Thu Nov 04 2004 11:03 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!

Richard,

Thank you for the kind words. And, yes, I do well remember your overnight moderation and thank you for it! You were a great help!

Phil


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Nov 05 2004 01:06 PM
Re: CFHC family...Danny rules!

ick. Look at the CMC and UKMET! Personally don't think this storm would push any farther west than the Bahamas. Only danger is if the high is strong and hangs on longer OR if the low develops further west than progged. You would think that the westerlies would beat on it (even a hurricane as the Canadien shows) so it would get sheared. But we'll see! Cheers!!

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Nov 05 2004 07:47 PM
Some thoughts...

from JB:

The monster high that develops Wednesday night and Thursday off the East Coast has a strong east flow underneath it, and a hybrid tropical system should evolve by Thursday morning near 27.5 north and 70 west underneath it.

...the energy coming in digs and tries to pick up the offshore storm sending a major gale center with possible snow on its western side over the Appalachians and a nasty nor'easter on the coast late next week with wind and rain. The Canadian is, by far, the most ambitious with this right now. At the very least, a beach erosion and tidal flooding situation is setting up for the south Atlantic coast. At the worst, a major storm rides northward with complications galore.

It seems like a deja Jeanne here with the GFS as far as position goes. Remember the consistent eastward bias with Jeanne, where a piece would be left behind, but it kept jumping the storm out because it is weak on the feedback of heat from the Tropics. I think we have the same thing here. So while energy will escape, I like the overwhelming model consensus from other sources, based on the pattern I am describing, of the true final development back closer to 70 west.

I want no part of the potential nor'easter...


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 05 2004 09:19 PM
Re: Some thoughts...

Anyone make anything of the convection off the coast of Central America?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Nov 06 2004 01:32 AM
Re: Some thoughts...

Gee! The weather turns cold, I take a few nights off and look what happens.
Ricreig and Phil thanks for the kind words. I can thank Mike and John for the opportunity, as they, and others started the site.
I enjoy trying to keep everyone updated. Folks in the target areas may not realize how much information they are feeding back into the board. Some of your posts were the exact reason that people 'Decided to Evacuate' this season.
To Mike and John-the systems are great.
Meteorologists-Great bunch. They can give the info to you at a Scientific level and/ or break it down for the rest of us.
The Mods-Ricreig put it nicely. "You Phil, sane or not". Well Phil and I have shared many thoughts, notes and jokes. I 'think' he's sane!
To everyone that posts, reads or 'lurks' here. I hope that things are returning to some state of Normal for each of you.
Hurricane season has 24 days to go at this point. Check in often. Forum-"Newest" usually has the most current topic displayed. Everything and nothing can be quite interesting reading.
Keith234- I need to know your sources of information. So I can study! You can PM me. You and Phil are in charge of the Long Island Branch of CFHC!

BTW- Its not easy trying to update others during the Elections. Very rapid data speed.
If you think Weather Models are unpredicatable watch 4 networks at the same time. Different Electoral and Popular Vote totals!


LI Phil
(User)
Sat Nov 06 2004 02:06 AM
As the season winds down...

I'd like to encourage everyone who posts to update their profile to include their E-mail address...this way, we can keep in touch without having to go thru CFHC during the winter.

I always check CFHC, but I'm sure many do not when there is really no action.

It's in my profile, but all y'all can reach me at phecken@yahoo.com if ya wanna shout!


James88
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 06 2004 01:38 PM
Past Novembers...

Good idea, Phil!

Well, it does seem as though this season started and finished abruptly, with a concentrated period of activity. However, we might just see another storm as the season draws it's last breath. Let us look at some seasons that have experienced some later storms, by which I mean storms on or after this date.

-1953, Tropical Storm #13 (23 - 26 Nov.) and Tropical Storm #14 (7 - 9 Dec.)
-1954, Tropical Storm #10 (16 - 21 Nov.)
-1956, Hurricane Greta (30 Oct. - 7 Nov.)
-1961, Hurricane Jenny (1 - 9 Nov.) and Tropical Storm Inga (5 - 8 Nov.)
-1964, Tropical Storm #12 (5 - 10 Nov.)
-1966, Hurricane Lois (4 - 14 Nov.)
-1969, Hurricane #17 (30 Oct. - 7 Nov.) and Hurricane Martha (21 - 25 Nov.)
-1971, Tropical Storm Laura (12 - 22 Nov.)
-1972 Subtropical Storm Delta (1 - 7 Nov.)
-1975, Subtropical Storm #2 (9 - 13 Dec.)
-1980, Hurricane Jeanne (7 - 16 Nov.) and Hurricane Karl (25 - 28 Nov.)
-1981, Hurricane Katrina (3 - 7 Nov.) and Subtropical Storm #3 (12 - 17 Nov.)
-1984, Hurricane Klaus (5 - 13 Nov.) and Hurricane Lili (12 - 24 Dec.)
-1985, Hurricane Kate (15 - 23 Nov.)
-1986, Hurricane Frances (18 - 21 Nov.)
-1988, Tropical Storm Keith (17 - 26 Nov.)
-1989, Tropical Storm Karen (28 Nov. - 4 Dec.)
-1994, Hurricane Florence ( 2 - 8 Nov.) and Hurricane Gordon (8 - 21 Nov.)
-1996, Hurricane Marco (18 - 26 Nov.)
-1998, Hurricane Nicole (24 Nov. - 1 Dec.)
-1999, Hurricane Lenny (13 - 21 Nov.)
-2001, Hurricane Michelle (29 Oct. - 6 Nov.) , Hurricane Noel (5 - 6 Nov.) and Hurricane Olga (24 Nov. - 4 Dec.)
-2003, Tropical Storm Odette (4 - 7 Dec.) and Tropical Storm Peter (9 - 11 Dec.)

So, since 1950, 23 seasons have seen later storms. While of course the atmospheric conditions are never the same, this data does give an historical perspective. It is noticeable that this kind of weather event was common in the 1980's, with 7 seasons in that decade exeriencing late storms.

Perhaps another storm is not that unlikely...


Ricreig
(User)
Sat Nov 06 2004 03:18 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

Quote:


So, since 1950, 23 seasons have seen later storms. While of course the atmospheric conditions are never the same, this data does give an historical perspective. It is noticeable that this kind of weather event was common in the 1980's, with 7 seasons in that decade exeriencing late storms.

Perhaps another storm is not that unlikely...



Yes, 'tis possible, but:

How many of them made landfall in the US.... No, more to the point, how many of them made it to landfall in areas already hit by the infamous four from this season? Even more to the point, How many hit where I am?

Yes, statistics say we can have another storm, even another hurricane, but what do statistics say about if it is a 'fun' experience, or another 'terror' experience?

I hope your answer is that the odds are on the side of 'fun' or of academic interest only.


James88
(Weather Master)
Sat Nov 06 2004 03:43 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

I was really just saying what has happened in past seasons to get an idea of how often a November storm occurs. Sorry if I offended you. I assure you that wasn't my intention.

LI Phil
(User)
Sat Nov 06 2004 11:57 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

James,

I'm sure you didn't offend...in fact, I'd venture to say Richard's post was a tad tongue-in-cheek. Point being that late season hurricanes rarely make US landfall.

After THIS season, even the most ardent hurricane "fans" would probably be grateful for nothing more to track until 2005. And that includes me!


Ricreig
(User)
Sun Nov 07 2004 06:39 AM
Re: Past Novembers...

Quote:

James,

I'm sure you didn't offend...in fact, I'd venture to say Richard's post was a tad tongue-in-cheek. Point being that late season hurricanes rarely make US landfall.

After THIS season, even the most ardent hurricane "fans" would probably be grateful for nothing more to track until 2005. And that includes me!



Yup, that about sums it up....I can't remember a full-fledged hurricane landing in the US this late....probably has, but nothing comes to mind, certainly not recent history. I wouldn't mind an 'academic exercise', but I suspect few would like to actually have to deal with a storm again this year.

James, you'd have to work much harder than this to offend this old Curmudgeon. I *did* put a smiley in my reply to you, but it's easy to miss I'm sure. You had interesting stats and it *would* be interesting to see if any of those late season storms actually made a US landfall. ... and what the odds would be of it happening *this* year.


James88
(Weather Master)
Sun Nov 07 2004 09:42 AM
Re: Past Novembers...

Well, glad that I didn't offend anyone and slightly embarrased that I misunderstood what you said. Sorry about that. I agree with you both about this season - hopefully it ended around 4 weeks ago with Nicole.

Oh, and just for the record - only 3 seasons of the 23 I mentioned have seen a US landfall this late. They are 1985 - Hurricane Kate, 1988 - Tropical Storm Keith, and 1994 - Tropical Storm Gordon. Happily, it looks as though the odds are stacked against it happening this year - at least from an historical perspective. Let's hope our friends in the Caribbean also have some peace for the next few months.


Storm Cooper
(User)
Sun Nov 07 2004 05:31 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL
1100 AM EST SUN 07 NOV 2004
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z NOV 2004
TCPOD NUMBER.....04-162

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLY LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR
15.5N AND 75.0W FOR 09/2000Z.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Nov 07 2004 05:38 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

Kate---1985... Florida Panhanlde; borderline 1/2 was Cat 3 in Gulf; Keith 1988, 70 mph TS in Florida at Sarasota; Gordon, 1993, TS in Fl and hurricane of NC Outer Banks. Others too.

Ricreig
(User)
Sun Nov 07 2004 09:38 PM
Re: Past Novembers...

Quote:

Kate---1985... Florida Panhanlde; borderline 1/2 was Cat 3 in Gulf; Keith 1988, 70 mph TS in Florida at Sarasota; Gordon, 1993, TS in Fl and hurricane of NC Outer Banks. Others too.


...so, you seem to agree, while possible, it is relatively rare and with the current wx setup, it isn't likely thys year either? It seems that most of they years where there were late storms, there also were few storms, eleven or so for the year. In years when we get 15 or more, few have been late season storms it would seem. Could that be a pattern? A-G, late possible, A-O or more, few late storms?

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Nov 08 2004 04:26 AM
Re: Past Novembers...

with SOI so strongly negative recently and the pattern amplified in the east things are primed for something to try to develop. it may or may not be tropical, but some sort of system should originate either in the sw/central caribbean or in the southwestern atlantic near the islands. may just be a sheared hybrid, but possibly a legit subtropical or tropical cyclone.
it's going into the second week of november and we still haven't had a hard freeze down here.. getting a little late. decent shot coming down in the next 48hrs should finally give us that killing frost.
offtopic: pray for our troops in fallujah. a lot of people are going to die there this week.
HF 0416z08november


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Mon Nov 08 2004 04:18 PM
This November

Carib is looking interesting. Showers south of Haiti and a dangling front all combined with previousl comments would make me think its now or never for one more storm this season.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Nov 08 2004 07:40 PM
Re: This November

It is not now are never especially for some this season. Last year we had a storm in December, this year we could have the same. This storm system that we have now, looks like a very probable canditate for becoming a sub-tropical storm. Watch it carefully,with the cold highs and the storm trofs we could see another landfalling system. Got to go, in Cali' and don't want to waste my battery. LI Phil, couldn't get a picture of it...

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 09 2004 08:55 PM
Dvorak for 91L

Rain rain go away... Still too weak via Dvorak Classification. Temps in Clearwater have really dropped the last week. Hopefully that will ensure nothing funny happens in the gulf for the remainder of the year.

Mark (go Falcons... 6 - 2)


LI Phil
(User)
Tue Nov 09 2004 09:04 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L

NHC still plans on sending in a plane tomorrow...

Spike
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 09 2004 10:19 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L

holy crap today is cloudy i love it! finally some cooler weather and this rain adds onto the cold front.

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Nov 09 2004 10:33 PM
Re: Dvorak for 91L

The weather was nice today in Central Florida. Dreary with clouds and a bit of rain. All that and it wasn't even "breezy" like August and September! People think I'm strange for my weather preferences. I just get tired of sunshine, blue skies and palm trees all the time.

ShanaTX
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Nov 09 2004 10:45 PM
Something completely different

I was watching CSI:Miami last night and they had a 30 foot tsunami (if you didn't see the ep, it was one of the most unbelievable of all time) Anyway, they had lots of flyover damage pics and even I can tell there wasn't nearly the damage that a 30 foot wall of water would cause hitting Miami Beach... or anywhere else.

Question is... the damage shots taken from the air - did they use post Ivan footage? Charlie, Jeanne or Frances footage? Or did they CGI Miami? It actually looked at times more like minor damage - windows blown out, roof pieces missing than what I've seen of the worst of Ivan pics..

I've been to both places but not enough to actually recognize less obvious places.

Thank you and sorry about the long question!

'shana


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Wed Nov 10 2004 01:40 AM
Re: Dvorak for 91L

Guten abend,

With that strong anticyclonic flow, a easterly fetch will develop. With the presence of a realitvely large area of concentrated moisture, and this fetch, it will cause some rainy and cloudy weather for a extended period of time in Florida. Texas will have some horrible weather also, with snow in the panhandle, and very cold and windy. This will be caused when that 'chewball' type of storm taps into cold air from Canada. The month of November looks like a cold one for the whole United States; especially the northeast, with temperatures averaging 5-7 degrees below normal. If the mean ridge retrogrades farther enough into central Canada this winter will be a bitter cold winter in the east. I think it is safe to say the landfalling season of any storm of a tropical nature is done, though there is a slight chance for something developing in the Caribbean.

Auf wiedersehen



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