| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:27 AM |
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EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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The East Pacific Basin's season began on May 15th, and they've got their first system on the third day. EastPac systems usually aren't covered on the main page, but this one is highly unusual in that it is forecast to enter the Atlantic basin... something that rarely occurs. The name will be Adrian when/if it gets to tropical storm strength, which looks very likely at this point. There is little climatology on such systems; tropical storms have occasionally wandered over to the coast near Guatemala; no hurricane has hit below the Mexican state of Chiapas, though. If this does happen it will be the first on record to do so.
Dependent on how strong it can get before crossing Central America, this system has the potential to be the first named storm on the Atlantic side as well. It is forecast to reach land late on Thursday, and be into the Caribbean by late Friday. The last named May system Atlantic side was Arlene in 1981, so it's been quite a few years since such an event. Watch this one; you may never see one like it again.
UPDATE: As of 11PM EDT (almost two hours ago, this is old info), TD 1E was upgraded to Adrian. The official forecast is essentially the same, with the track shifted ever-so-slightly to the right. They're still playing the storm conservatively, calling for a borderline TS/hurricane. A more clear and present danger is the flood threat, as Adrian is going cross some highlands and orographic effects will work to deluge some areas. Read Clark's post below for further explanation of that contingency. This storm is by its very nature already remarkable, and it has the potential to do plenty more.
-HF 0601Z 18May
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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history before our eyes. This is indeed rare. Now we have to see if it make it through intact, we will have to see.
| Lysis |
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| Wed May 18 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Hank, didn't you just say that it would not be classified as Arlene? Or will it stay Adrian and still be considered the first storm of the Atlantic season? If so, then why are you discounting it?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:55 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Before I was iffy about saying it was going to make it across CA, but checking some top maps I noticed the highest mountain was 8,000 ft tall. That's not that bad, and the system looks pretty large, so there's a very good possibility this things passes over only partially damaged.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:58 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Jeffie,
HF has his own way of doing things...and in some ways i think his ways are better than NHC...however, we play by their rules here...if adrian forms in the epac, crosses ca, and "reforms" as a ts in the atl., it WILL be called Arlene and it WILL count as our first named storm...that's how the NHC does things...personally i agree that those rare storms which jump basins shouldn't even be counted when they reach the other side...i also disagreed vehemently last year with the NHC KEEPING ivan as ivan (yes, it was still the same 'system') but in my mind it clearly should have been given a different name...especially after the death and destruction the original Ivan caused...
but facts are facts...adrian would become arlene and each basin would have it's first named storm if everything we've deen discussing comes to fruition...
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:04 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Not that this bears significance in the light of an obviously important meteorlogical event, Hank just said:
by the way, if it survives (and the NHC doesn't decide that it has 'reformed') the trek across central america it will still be called adrian.. the NHC changed their convention on that a couple years ago (about the same time they changed the naming convention for subtropical systems).
Now he contradicts himself? What is going on?
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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currently im listening to talkin' tropics and they have Jamie Rhome (Forecast Analyist from the TPC/ Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch) live interview. he said if it keeps a disernable center it will keep the pacific name, but if it falls totally apart
it will get a Atlantic name. Now the question is what would you call disernable?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Ok I get it. I suppose it will be like Ivan and all depend on what mood the NHC is in, or some kind of PR crap. Thanks, man. Sorry about that everyone.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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there is alway the fine boarder line that has to be crossed or stayed away from
| LI Phil |
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| Wed May 18 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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>>>(and the NHC doesn't decide that it has 'reformed')
that's the kicker...NHC gets to make the call on whether it has "reformed"...there's a LOT more at stake here for a LOT of different parties involved on whether or not NHC decides whether this will be renamed...
like with ivan last year...
it's more politics than common sense and that's why everyone is so po'ed at NHC...they didn't classify the May system last year that killed 3,000+ in Haiti when it was AT LEAST a td, if not a ts...
but we're getting WAY ahead of ourselves here...lets see if this thing even becomes Adrian before we start counting the minutes to our first named storm in the atlantic...
| Lysis |
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| Wed May 18 2005 01:12 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Well, for consistency’s sake I think you need to keep the same name within basins... like bonnie last year, who weakened and quickly reformed. Sheesh... this is why I became disenfranchised with politics. "Who could be biased about the weather" I thought.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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but then if a situation like ivan last year it needs a totally different name. once the system is dissapated it is gone. if something spaws from the remnats.the new storm needs a new name.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:38 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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I am just anxious to see how it all plays out in the next few days. Looking forward to seeing some maps....Skeetobite?
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:43 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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It is odd, last season started with an anomaly and looks like this season is too. I would guess (hope) that this storm will not survive the mountains it will pass over. It is going to travel over mountains, right?
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:44 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Combination visible/ infrared satellite shot link.
Notice the bright white dots in the southern and central areas of the convection. These dots depict the concentrated areas of lightning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/VIS/20.jpg
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Not lightning
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Sorry Daniel-
that is light (not lightning) catching the higher clouds tops from the low, setting sun...see the ecliptic line just to the west of the system....the system is now in the infrared picture zone (night), the extra light energy is causing a 'flare' in the infrared spectrum (overload of light energy/heat)....there may be lightning there, but, that is NOT what you are seeing...
MM
| LI Phil |
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| Wed May 18 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Interestingly enough...not a single "track map" i've yet seen develops the epac storm into a ts when it crosses into the atlantic basin
here's another tracking map for your viewing pleasure
and another
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danielw
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| Wed May 18 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: More Lightning
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
The area south of Hispanola, and a second area along 45degrees W longitude. From 19 to 25 degrees N latitude.
Well below the horizon of the sun at 0115Z.
**Added the last 3 links off the EPAC Tropical Storm Adrian Floater
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Phil -- that's because they are all using the NHC guidance to create those maps, which still only calls for a 30kt depression once it enters our basin.
At 11pm, TD-1E was upgraded to Adrian, the first named storm of the season. During the evening, the convective pattern near the center waned before developing into a small CDO-type feature. This bodes well for future organization. Given about another 18-24hr to organize, I do believe we'll have a hurricane on our hands. NHC's hands are tied because this is such a rare event that they can't call for something drastic; but, the ingredients are there to certainly support a hurricane. No matter the intensity, the primary concern is going to be rainfall, particularly on the south side of those mountains to the east of where the storm tracks. Probably not Mitch-type destruction, as the storm isn't as strong and is moving faster, but very substantial rainfall amounts will not be out of the question.
The GFDL has backed off on the extreme intensity prediction of 125kt before, down to 105kt. That is probably the upper bound of what we could see with this storm; time is not on its side for anything more. Something more along the lines of 75-90kt is more likely, again with landfall in 2-3 days. After that, it's still anyone's guess. How fast the system moves across land and what path it takes will go a long way to determining how well it survives into the Caribbean, what path it takes in our basin, and how much reintensification -- if any -- it may undergo. Still anyone's guess at this point, but those in the Caymans, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Bahamas need to watch this one...just in case.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Hopefully it stays south and east if it does come across. I am heading to the Keys for the week on Thur. Check out the new GFDL run.... here is the 96 hr forecast
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=096hr
and here is 108 hr
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=114hr
by the way...if there are storms in my area this year (Brevard Co. Florida - Merritt Island) , don't forget to check out my web page...I installed a Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless weather station and the information is on my web page - the anemometer is screwed into the roof trusses so it isn't going anywhere....
http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/rg-weather.html
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:24 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Thats interesting H2 the SST's in that region are definitly warm enough to sustain a storm or hurricane.The shear above 20' N is tough and has been that way for at least a week now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
I do not know myself if this is what HF and Clark were talking about the other night as the sub-tropical jet.If it is it might be there to stay for awhile maybe they can enlighten us on that.I am not surprised at all by the way things have gone with this system.I am surprised that it might make hurricane strength at best I figured it might go in as a TS.History in the makin pretty neat.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:32 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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>>> installed a Davis Vantage Pro2 Wireless weather station and the information is on my web page - the anemometer is screwed into the roof trusses so it isn't going anywhere....
as long as your roof isn't
good work on the gfdl info...it is going to be a VERY intersting next couple of days to say the least...
yo adrian...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:39 AM |
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Re: EastPac Depression
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Javlin -- yes, that is a reflection of the subtropical jet around 20N in the vertical wind shear profiles. Interesting to note that if it can get into what is termed the right entrance region -- think of winds going west-to-east, just south of the western extent of the strongest winds -- rising motion may be enhanced within the storm. At its likely location, that may just add to the precipitation troubles on the northward facing beaches/mountain ranges (as the storm passes).
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:19 AM |
Re: EastPac Depression
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hi there,
I am new to the group and was looking at ther GFDL forcast for 54 hours. I am confused as it has some parts of the storm reaching cat 3 status as other parts are lower and higher winds. Is this the wind gusts or is this the storm speed itself??
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...&hour=054hr
Mike from Rockledge, florida (brevard county)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:37 AM |
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precedence
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this could easily go into the hurricane history forum, but i'll weight it with some current obs so it fits here...
if you want to see an example of a basin-crosser of the variety adrian may pull, check the track maps from 1949. different season and scenario, but that was a mean hurricane that got the texas coast in early october, after forming east of where adrian originated. the 1961 example of hattie-simone-inga was already given on the last thread. in 1989 a june hurricane named cosme crossed and was reclassified allison... also a bother for texas. the closest we've come since then was rick in november 1997 trying to cross over--more eastward trajectory than the others, further south also--more in line with what we've got now. didn't exactly make it, and adrian may do something similar... though rick was under increasing shear at landfall and adrian will probably have better synoptic conditions at landfall.. slightly. the intensity issue will be decided on thursday when the storm comes ashore. the forecast track is into el salvador right now.. that'll be a first; can't find anything close in the historic database.
clark pointed out the cdo present this evening. the storm structure is such that it can intensify steadily. don't be surprised if adrian is a hurricane late tomorrow. the deeper the storm becomes the faster it will move, so there is a logical limit to how strong it becomes. a further south landfall gives it a slightly higher chance of regeneration.. though more land will have to be crossed, shear will not be as big an issue (still an issue though). also, SOI is very negative, so the backing in the deep tropics trailing the storm will lead to a strong convergence line in central america and the sw caribbean.. more rain, and it will also have to be watched for more development... hypothetically. the center could also reform in this fashion if it weakens too much over land. same vorticity envelope, so i'm iffy on the idea, but there is a precedent (iris to manuel in 2001).
i'm also thinking that the generated ridging and outflow enhancement of nearby upper features is probably a rogue factor the models can't predict very well. hurricane detritus can cause indirect effects and subsequent development in this fashion. it maybe isn't showing in the modeling just yet. due to the strong westerly backing and chaotic nature of adrian's sphere of influence, i'd keep an eyeball on the region as we go into next week.
HF 0537z18may
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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That's a great site to use. I'll start with a short version and just maybe one of the mets can finish it out.
First-that's the Tuesday morning 8EDT/ 7CDT, model. Since we are talking about the wind speeds and pressures we will go ahead with this 54 hr model prog.
12Z17MAY2005- wind at 950mb. Now look in the lower right hand corner and you will see the max wind and min pressure for this hour of the Forecast.( 951.3hPa and Max 950mb wind =126 knots)
So we have determined that the Model is forecasting a possibility of min central pressure of 951.3hPa (or mb) and 126.0 winds.
In the Northern Hemisphere the right side of the storm, in reference to it's direction of movement, should have the stronger windfield. In this particular case the GFDL is indicating a stronger windfield in the 5 thru 7 o'clock position, or the rear semicircle. I'm not real sure about the reasoning that's being used. Here are my thoughts.
The Southern semicircle is :
In an area of less wind shear.
Most removed from the mountainous topography, ahead of the storm.
Other possibility is that the trof moving in from Baha California has advanced over the top of the storm and is inducing a speed increase over the southern half of the storm.
**HF or Clark, your input is very welcome here.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:05 AM |
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May?
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Is it too late to revise my predictions?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:05 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Well.. that's the right semicircle of the storm. It's advancing more to the east, so in this case it's to the south. Maybe that's what it is. I doubt the pressure gradient is tighter on that side, though. Then again, it's the GFDL. I've seen that model forecast a storm to intensify over the mountains, 200 miles inland over the Southeast US.
HF 0605z18may
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:17 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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What do u guys thing of this lastest discussion?????
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 18 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN UPGRADED AT 18/0300 UTC CENTERED NEAR
10.3N 94.7W MOVING NE 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING
CONTINUES TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
A CENTRAL CORE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 45
NM OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E-NE OF THE DEPRESSION...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTAINED IN THE BAND
WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:18 AM |
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Re: May?
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Quote:
Is it too late to revise my predictions?
according to the rules, you have until 5/31 to get in your "official" totals...
so techically, the answer is, "no, it's not too late". however, don't be pullin' no rabbits (inside joke) and start changing your #s with each and every new storm...
ya'll can do what you want, but if you already went to the mat...always go with your first hunch...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:37 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Quote:
What do u guys thing of this lastest discussion?????
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 18 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC....
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN UPGRADED AT 18/0300 UTC CENTERED NEAR 10.3N 94.7W MOVING NE 4 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BANDING CONTINUES TO INCREASE...PARTICULARLY IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS. A CENTRAL CORE OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN 45 NM OF THE CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E-NE OF THE DEPRESSION...
A MID/UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE N OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET OF 50-70 KT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA ARE COMBINING TO PROVIDING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS CONTAINED IN THE BAND WITHIN 180 NM IN THE S AND SE QUADRANTS.
This is Not looking good at all!
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Hey there,
Im not sure what the advisory means in reguard to you saying that it doesnt look good at all? Im still learning, lol
However, isnt their suppose to be a 2am advisory? every 6 hrs ?
just wondering. Im supprised that the local media hasnt caught on and broadcasted this yet.
mike
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:56 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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What dies it mean by tropical wave? is it just a sea level like wave or is it as atmosphere event? I know what it is but how does it effect a t.s.??
.
..TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 89W N OF 4N HAS DISSIPATED AS IT
BECAME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGE CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM
ADRIAN.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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at first look of sats this morning.....nice CDO! looks like could have a hurricane/strong TS by evening...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE ( CDO ) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.
( full text discussion available at this following link )
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/180826.shtml
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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radar link
slow, here's radar
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:16 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Wow. Hard to believe the fun is beginning so early. I hope everyone is well. Phil glad to see ya! Pretty excited to see what this year holds for us in FL.
This will be my first of many comments like this:
Thanx to all those breaking it down for all of us who aren't year 'round hobbyists. And thanx for all the great info and links. It really helps!
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:26 AM |
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Deluge in Puerto Rico
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/images/DS.p19r0/SI.tjua/latest.gif
I fear massive flooding if this big area of convection does not leave rapidly.From may 5 when the rain started over 10.00 inches haved fallen in parts of the island caused by a stationary trough combined with a couple of tropical waves.I hope that what may be left from Adrian doesn't come our way.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:58 AM |
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Re: Deluge in Puerto Rico
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hey guys! good morning! looks like we got a big fish on our line. so what are we looking at here? looks pretty big on radar.. i mean you are talking bout rain fall unprecedented and alot of mudslides and flash flooding. this one could be worse than venezuela's floods back in early 80's. so what will looking at here 2 or 3. and how far is these bands gonna stretch if it survives the mountains and gets in the atlantic?
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:07 PM |
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Re: Deluge in Puerto Rico
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NL really best not to think in those terms but hope that people seek shelter or have the ability to.The impact is going to be alot rain.I would really be surprised myself to see Adrain go in at anything above 85-90mph myself.What I am interested in is the strength and location of the sub-tropical jet in 5 days.That should keep a tight leash on the storm next week.
Like to add UKMET is still bullish on its intensification going the others have backed off some.Then you have the CMC on the Carib side going bullish giving Presidente Castro a Memorial Day present.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:12 PM |
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Good Link
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http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/satellite/index.html
Check out GOES-8 Infrared-4
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Test image.
This image depicts the various elevation issues Adrian will need to overcome to successfully cross over to the Caribbean Sea.
Since this is a test image, please do not bookmark the file path as this will change when we begin actual production of real time imaging.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 12:21 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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so thats showing florida will get alot of rain and maybe some storms and probally tornados spun of this thing right?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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Quote:
so thats showing florida will get alot of rain and maybe some storms and probally tornados spun of this thing right?
Wow you're thinking WAY ahead. Let's see how it holds up to the land crossing before we start projecting effects on ourselves...I'm anxious but not that anxious
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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I love your maps, fantastic job. Unbelievable that we have something to track this early in the season. I`ll be looking forward to your posts through out the summer...Weatherchef
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Thanks, Skeetobite-
You are the no.1 master of maps and truly appreciated as the season evolves.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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Let's see if the system will hold its own after it migrates from land. I'll certainly do any yard work before Saturday, in any event.
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:27 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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hey there. Here is the 5am Pacific time update on our foe in the pacific..
ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
...RARE TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR...AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM PDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT
320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS MAY BEGIN
TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATER
TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
THE PATH OF ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM PDT POSITION...10.9 N... 93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 8 AM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 01:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Thanks SkeetoBite!
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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Quote:
so thats showing florida will get alot of rain and maybe some storms and probally tornados spun of this thing right?
Nope.
There is no realistic scenario that makes this thing a threat to Florida...too much wind shear would have to be overcome for any significant type of storm to affect FL...the Keys might be the one exception with a glancing blow from a feeder band or two, but a strike to FL just doesn't look possible at this time, and I personally think that it won't survive the trip across the mountains very well either.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Nice map Skeeto. They definitely were well used last year.
Here's a link to Wunderground's Central America page:
http://blackbird.wunderground.com/global/CA_VS_Index.html
Adrian will be very interesting to watch for sure.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 02:53 PM |
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interesting link for florida residents
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http://www.bestplaces.net/docs/studies/hurricane_hotspots.aspx
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: Good Link
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Newest update:
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005
...RARE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF EL
SALVADOR...AND THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EL
SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA LATER TODAY.
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT
295 MILES... 475 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE GUATEMALA-EL SALVADOR
BORDER.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...OUTER RAINBANDS CONTAINING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
COASTAL AREAS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES
... 75 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM PDT POSITION...11.1 N... 93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 2 PM PDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:52 PM |
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HEY COLLEEN!
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What are you doing here before 6/1????
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Very interesting scenario playing out with TS Adrian. I thought my eyes were going googly when I saw it heading EAST and not WEST. Didn't I just get off this train 5 minutes ago? Who bought me a return ticket?
I'm not making any predictions with Adrian because I personally think she has a lot of obstacles to get through before Florida would even become a focus in this unusual event. If she makes it across the mountains and into the Yucatan Peninisula, I can tell you that then it will become interesting. Having just returned from a 8 day vacation in Cancun in April, the water there is like bath water and I'm sure it's even warmer now.
I'm not sure who asked about the adivisories coming out every 3 hours, but since they have now put up watches along the coastlines the answer is "yes". Hope that helps!
As for the media not picking it up, they're all too involved with Wacko Jacko, the "nuclear" showdown in Washington, and the Newsweak story. Weather? What weather?
I will say this: after last year's hurricane season, I will not be surprised by anything that happens this year.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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"What are you doing here before 6/1????"
I was just asking myself the SAME question!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Fox news has been reporting it.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:01 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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who's next? are they gonna let Frank P. out of the WPP a couple weeks early?
Glad to see you back on the boards!!!
Looks like we got a bid of early season mischief on our hands...will be a VERY interesting next few days...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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I just meant the media in general, that's all. Janice Dean the Weather Machine is always on top of things. ;-)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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Frank may get early release, at least that's what I've heard in the rumor mill.
Yes, a bit of mischief indeed! I don't know if there's a way to top off last season, but if this is any indication, ..........
Good to be back on the boards! I've been fighting a nasty case of facial neuralgia called TN which causes a shocking sensation and is indeed very unpleasant. I'm on some heavy duty meds to keep it at bay. I'm blaming it on last year's season since I had to slap myself on that side of the face so many times to keep myself awake! This is about the time when the meds kick in and kick butt, so if you don't hear from me for a couple of hours, I'm OUT.
I have to take them after the kids leave in the morning so I can be functional when they get home, and then again at night after they go to bed. It's a real pain in the face. It will be interesting to watch and see what happens with Adrian. Hopefully, no lives will be lost, although we know what happens with rains in the mountainous area.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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Hey all - - sorry we have to be back here so soon. Props to the redesign on the board, and the early analysis that will help all of us get through another season.
This is entirely too early - - - just got roof re done, and the stump grinder can't get me into his schedule until the last week of June. Sent my check back to FEMA, and paid the increased premium for my homeowners insurance.
Ok - - Do any of the learned metes on the board really think this thing will make it across the mountains of CA and really be anything other than a Low pressure system by the weekend??
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:40 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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you know with this new storm taking the path it is taking, im not gonna be surprised by anything this year...i look at it this way if this is going to happen, what else can happen?...have a great day and stay safe everyone...
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:43 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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I believe that some remnant of it will make it across into the Caribbean, and it might even perk back up a bit in those warm waters...but there is a LOT of shear the further north you go, and the prevalent steering current should keep it south of Florida (with the exception of the Keys maybe getting a feeder band or 2), so I am not that concerned about a Florida threat at this point.
However, this ain't supposed to be happening anyway, so we'll have to watch it just in case.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 04:43 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Just watched the local forecast here,and south florida is just outside the "cone" for Sunday and Monday.Overall people here are already getting prepared for the upcoming season.So many people I have spoken with expect a major one here.We dodged several bullets last season,and with another busy season coming,alot of people here think our luck has run out.
| James88 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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It looks like Adrian has acquired an eye.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:12 PM |
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Re: HEY COLLEEN!
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thx wxman - - maybe I'll get my stumps ground yet
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Quote:
It looks like Adrian has acquired an eye.
Don't think it's an eye yet, but it's starting to look 'pretty' I wouldn't be suprised to see the wind speeds bumped up to 60Kts at the next advisory. And to think I was holding out hope that the disruption that had occured this morning would slow down development enough to keep it a minimal hurricane. because once it gets organized, there really isn't anything that'll stop it from doing some rapid intensification...
I hope the people in central america are taking precautions...
-Mark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Looks to me like an eye is forming.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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if you check out the water vapor loop...you can see there is as yet no eye...but i wouldn't discount this possibility after she strengthens further...
it wouldn't surprise me to see this become at least a CAT I or maybe even a weak CAT II when she landfalls, and at this point, i'm gonna give it a 75-25 chance that this DOES eventually become Arlene in the Atlantic Basin...provided she emerges from CA as a td or less...otherwise, if she can keep ts status or greater, she may remain adrian and not be considered as an atlantic storm at all (go figure)...
gotta love the nhc eh?
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Hey Phil - - what is your opinion about the prevailing shear in the Gulf and near bahamas - - will it continue to be strong enough to make this a fish spinner after Cuba???
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 18 2005 05:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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If Adrian makes it through the moutains and continues on the projected path it will be in the Atlantic by the 23rd. What are your thoughts as to where it will go from there? I know it is very early, but do you think it will continue to the east or could it possibly change directions?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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They just put the winds up 60.She is gaining strength.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Adrian looks to be in the process of developing at least a ragged eye-like feature, particularly evident on the visible satellite imagery over the past couple of hours. It's not there on IR or WV yet due to some high cirrus enhancing moisture & resulting on some cold cloud tops. Winds as of 2p have been bumped to 60mph, and the storm is well on its way to hurricane status. Look for TS warnings and hurricane watches to go up at 5pm, with hurricane warnings soon to follow. SSTs begin to drop off slightly here, remain between 29-30 C until landfall, but the biggest decrease is felt below the surface, where the depth of the warm water isn't as great to the east. With Adrian, however, it should be moving fast enough to keep this from being an inhibiting factor. The only inhibiting factor for decent intensification from here on out is dry air entrainment, this morning's minor hiccup not withstanding. A 75-90kt hurricane, as mentioned previously, is looking likely at landfall, though rainfall is still going to be the primary impact of the storm.
The system has begun to accelerate to the north and east in response to the digging trough over Mexico and the increased vertical development of the storm. At this clip, the storm should make landfall along the eastern El Salvador coast in about 2 days, give or take. From there, continued acceleration towards the north and east is likely. The storm won't be nearly as strong as Mitch (98), but nor will it feel the negative effects of land nearly as long either, meaning it probably has about the same chance of redevelopment in the Caribbean. Wherever the storm goes in our basin, shear is going to be pretty high on the north side of the storm, inhibiting any redevelopment. It is not out of the realm of possibility, however, to see a weak TS reform in the NW Caribbean, as the models may underdo the environmental modification of the ridge by the outflow from Adrian. A continued NE movement, perhaps more slowly than before initial landfall, is the most likely bet for whatever is left of the storm. There is good agreement amongst the models on this, but trying to use them to call for redevelopment is a fool's errand, as they hardly capture the storm as it is. GFDL, IMO, is too intense on the storm by landfall and too intense with development, to boot.
Still one to watch, but hopefully those in central America are prepared for what's to come. It's not going to be pretty.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Banding eye. Just great. Looks like El Salvador is going to get a hurricane hit, and it may be more than just marginal. I've got a hunch it's going to be a strong 2 or 3 when it landfalls tomorrow night.
HF 1924z18may
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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the NWHHC Update (North Western Hemisphere Hurricane Center) is calling this a hurricane.
Note: The NWHHC is independent, this is not official, for more info see their About page and Disclaimer
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Amazing. I'm afraid the flooding from Adrian is going to be devastating to this region. I hope they are able to get the warnings and message out to the public in order to protect them from what is sure to be massive rainfall, mudslides and flooding. Starting the season off with loss of life in May is not a good sign of what is yet to come this Hurricane season.
Thanks for the link.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:20 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Interesting to note: the storm thus far has moved further to the east than the NHC and models have called for thus far, rather than moving NE. Flow to the north of the storm is more zonal than expected, suggesting the trough hasn't amplified the flow to the point of being able to draw the storm towards the north. It should begin to gain latitude, but I'm not convinced that the storm comes in as far north as the models and the NHC brings it as of yet.
Flow onto the W. coast of the U.S. is being shunted north and south in a diffluent pattern over the Rockies, helping to push the storm towards the east, but it's not doing a lot to amplify the flow pattern over the region. The trough off of the east coast of the U.S. is taking its time in building southward as well, meaning there is less of an influence upon the storm to go poleward. In fact, over the past day or so, the flow has become less amplified across the western Caribbean, and there doesn't appear to be a lot in the flow pattern to change things, either, meaning either a shortwave trough is going to come out of the woodwork and push the storm north...or it's not going to go north. Good for us, bad for the central Caribbean.
Those in Nicaragua need to watch this storm, for if things hold, Adrian may make in impact in eastern El Salvador and northern Nicaragua moreso than western El Salvador. I hinted at this in my previous update, but feel a bit more confident about it now. An eventual track along the Honduran/Nicaraguan border into the NW Caribbean is possible, keeping the storm over land a bit longer but perhaps avoiding some of the taller mountain peaks. From there, whatever is left of the storm may begin to travel a bit further north, as the predominant low-level flow is directed that way, but keeping the Caymans, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola under the gun for something.
Will be watching this for some time to come, but need to get back to work.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Quote:
Amazing. I'm afraid the flooding from Adrian is going to be devastating to this region. I hope they are able to get the warnings and message out to the public in order to protect them from what is sure to be massive rainfall, mudslides and flooding. Starting the season off with loss of life in May is not a good sign of what is yet to come this Hurricane season.
Thanks for the link.
I believe we had a devastating May storm last year too...
Anyway, the CDO is become much more ragged, and an eye is developing. A dry air intrusion from the northwest stunted some development; it was probably due to the excellent outflow boundary just east of the dry air intrusion. Nonetheless the feature is maturing both on the surface and in the upper atmosphere. Also to note, this picture shows two cloud depressions in the CDO.
https://metoc.npmoc.navy.mil/sat/epac_trop/vis/epac_trop_vs.jpg
I expect some temporary weakening for the next 6 hours, and then intensity will increase to a strong CAT 1, and landfall on the el salavador coast...Hopefully this one won't stall over the moutains...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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>>> I believe we had a devastating May storm last year too...
yes we did...there was an unnamed and in fact uninvestigated may storm which devastated haiti, killing at least 3,000. if you feel like it, you may want to go back into the 2004 archives, towards the end of May, and see what we all had to say about it...
i really believe the nhc dropped the ball on that storm, as it was clearly AT LEAST a tropical depression, if not alex...
it will be interesting to see if your weakening hypothesis holds up, as i'm of the mind that this might achieve hurricane status at the next update...but we shall see...either way, she's still holding strong at 60+ winds, so she's clearly not a hurricane yet...
and it's el salvador..san salvador is the capital
but nice analysis keith
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:43 PM |
Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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Is there any time frame in which this shear in the carribean is set to start to dissapate?
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:53 PM |
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Re: EastPac Depression Taking Unusual Path
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That comment about the shear in the Caribbean was from me by the way.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 07:54 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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As you know, when hurricanes undergo CREC's or any form of eye generation causes storms to usually weaken. The dry air intrusion also supports this hypothesis. 6 hours is a relatively short time for an ragged eye to form, the storm to start strengthening again, and the dry air to be replaced. 30 + C waters, and an ideal amount of shear give you a good idea of how strong this storm can get!
Notice the latest retrival from the GOES cloud temp.
http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu/epac41_manual.html
Bright banding around the center, suggests some form of eye development is taking place.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian (position)
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if you look ant the vis sat loop and click on the forcast points on the bottom you can see the the storm's center is ESE of its forcast position. Clark is right people along the Honduran/Nicaraguan border better watch out.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Looks like a more S track will allow for better development in the Carib. due to Adrian's proximity to the shear.Then you have to wonder then about the steering currents if the trough will be felt by Adrian significantly.Definitly no eye yet just a good center of circulation.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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thats looks like what is happening so far. it further S and E than the forcast put it.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:31 PM |
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Adrian/Arlene
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ok...i thought i knew this stuff but obviously i'm confused...
adrian is currently a ts in the EPAC, but the general consensus is that she will achieve Hurricane Status before landfall.
assuming she maintains at least ts strength in her trek across CA and emerges into the atlantic basin...is she still adrian? if she drops to td status but then 'regains' ts strength in this basin, does she then get 'reclassified' as arlene?
i know this is a rare and but still possible scenario...
and on a related, but slightly off-topic side note...if she becomes "arlene", this will count as the first named storm in the atlantic, and also for the cfhc "season forecast" contest, right?
glad to be back moderating...heh...but i could have waited a couple more weeks for this...
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Quote:That is from last night.
currently im listening to talkin' tropics and they have Jamie Rhome (Forecast Analyist from the TPC/ Tropical Analysis Forecast Branch) live interview. he said if it keeps a disernable center it will keep the pacific name, but if it falls totally apart it will get a Atlantic name. Now the question is what would you call disernable?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:38 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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I thought if Adrian were to retain any tropical characteristic it would be treated as the first tropical event in the Atlantic basin once it appears in the Atlantic basin.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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5pm still 50kts
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF HONDURAS...INCLUDING
THE GULFO DE FONSECA.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF EL SALVADOR HAS UPGRADED THETROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANEWATCH FOR ALL OF EL SALVADOR.
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:45 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Adrian
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Currently some nice convection developing and wrapping on the western side of the center. At the same time, the eye feature that was developing earlier is not as evident right now. The development will probably continue to level off some as we go into the evening.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:45 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT TUE OCT 09 2001
...IRIS WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER EASTERN MEXICO...
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT
45 MILES...75 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXTLA GUTIERREZ MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF IRIS NEAR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE
PACIFIC. IF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN
THE NAME IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...
AFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE IRIS. SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
THUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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ok so if he remains Adrian, do we keep Arlene? or move on to Bret?
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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keep Arlene
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 08:55 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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if somehow it it remains adrian and for right now thats a big if.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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there's gonna be a lot of confused people this season...LOL...
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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i have to agree there i was kinda confused...but im good now...:)
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:03 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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my weather guy dennis mitchell on channel 28 in tampa bay just said that if it does cross over it will be atlantic first named storm...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:24 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Quote:
ok...i thought i knew this stuff but obviously i'm confused...
adrian is currently a ts in the EPAC, but the general consensus is that she will achieve Hurricane Status before landfall.
assuming she maintains at least ts strength in her trek across CA and emerges into the atlantic basin...is she still adrian? if she drops to td status but then 'regains' ts strength in this basin, does she then get 'reclassified' as arlene?
i know this is a rare and but still possible scenario...
and on a related, but slightly off-topic side note...if she becomes "arlene", this will count as the first named storm in the atlantic, and also for the cfhc "season forecast" contest, right?
glad to be back moderating...heh...but i could have waited a couple more weeks for this...
no, i believe the contest was more so "when will the first named hurricane form by?" or something like that...
nevermind the above, it was when will the first named system form...and it looks like i would win that part of the contest then. that is if the storm theoretically became a ts in the atlantic which at this point is very hard to determine.
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:50 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Here we go Ready or Not
Just listening now sounds like she is going to have rough passage over El Salvador. Will watch this close as it doesn't happen often. I sure didn't add this when I sumitted my numbers. Time to sharpen the penciils.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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ahh the joy of tropical systems
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Quote:
my weather guy dennis mitchell on channel 28 in tampa bay just said that if it does cross over it will be atlantic first named storm...
by the time the storm get's into the atlantic (sat or sun), i believe a strong 500 ridge will have asserted itself in the desert southwest, allowing for some shortwave energy to ride down into the gulf. The proximity to this feature will spell SHEAR for the system, at least that's what I can make of it.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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the slot of dry air is nearly gone now wv seems to be losing some of its strong convection on IR. But as someone said ealier storm tend to weaken during CERC or while trying to form an eye
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:11 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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thats if it goes that far north. If it stays on a more easterly course it will be father south in the Carib. were there wont be as much shear, but that is only a possibilty if it stay more to the south and isn't shreaded over the C.A. mountains.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:14 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Hello, CFHC! I didn't expect to be visiting this site so early in the year!
I had a question regarding the models. Because there is little climatological precedent for a storm like Adrian, how much confidence are people placing in the models? I think the fact that they are mostly in agreement is a good sign, however. Was just wondering what people thought.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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well if you were looking at CLIPER (CLimate and PERsistance) it would be bsically useless. GFDL has been giving this storm a lot of stength. So it depends and that is why there is more then one model. Some models are statistical and others are dynamic but most are hybrids. So on one factor (climatology) they may be skewed but others maybe right on. Well just have to wait and see.
Any of the experts want to add?
P.S Clark and Jason and others may have better input.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:26 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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I am no expert like JK or Clark but the models have been rather tight on this storm (track) and we are talking about a bunch of models. I don't know of a "favorite" model this season.... just have to see as time goes on the ones that verify the best and go from there.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:29 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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exactly
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:30 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Look in the other basin's forum, the latest thread on pg 1 i believe i made a post regarding the models and the confidence on forecasting for this event.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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the western outflow boundary seems to be dissolving and CDO is reforming nicely, its lookin' like a Hurricane
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:36 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Thanks, everyone. No one that I've talked to in Ft. Myers thinks we have anything to worry about...but it is definitely strange to be talking tropics so early in the year!
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Keith I think Adrian is definitly in the last few frames taking more a true NE movement.The idea of it going more of a Southerly course is out I think.The UKMET had a hard prog to the N pretty much what is happening now.That being the case it's going to be tough going for development on the other side esp. if that short wave makes it's way down far enough you were talking about.Adrian seems to becoming a little more stable in it's outflow pattern still only thinkin ,maybe 85-90mph tops really if that.Alot of good evaluations goin on.The season has started.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:53 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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anyone think a 1007 mb low near the turks/caicos, or the 1008mb low apprx. 200 miles sw of jamica will play a big role in adrian's movmt?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed May 18 2005 10:54 PM |
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status
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i was thinking that banding eye earlier signified a good bit more strengthening than has really taken place. jumped the gun some.. the 'eye' has filled and the cdo definition is ragged right now. it might be a diurnal minumum, or choking on subsidence or something. the western outflow is more restricted than yesterday, but the poleward outflow seems much enhanced.
clark's mention of the right-of-forecast track does present the interesting case that the storm will keep out of the serious shear and decelerate more as it crosses.. and not take the quick ENE track presented in the official. if it goes left, probably won't have any chance of recovery once it goes feet dry. not much confidence in either scenario.
the models are still generating weak lows north of the greater antilles today, and there's still a lot of disturbed weather in the central caribbean and points north and northeast. diffluence around upper troughs and splits is generating a couple of surface troughs near 23/70 and 25/45. somewhere in the middle gfs has an interesting low. none of these are particularly convincing when it comes to development, though. convection in the caribbean continues, but none of the mccs persist long enough to get the 'siphon' going at the surface, as has been happening for days.
so anyhow, it's probably just adrian.. but adrian is interesting enough.
HF 2353z18may
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: status
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I wonder why my past posts are deleted?
I was the first to bring the good news about this storm
Due to content...be careful of what you say and how you say it in the future
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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The models don't really use climatology; they are dynamical in nature, meaning they see what is going on and forecast from that (whether or not the initial values it gets are flawed or not is another story). Despite no precedent, the dynamical models (GFDL, AVN, etc) shouldn't have any trouble with this, or at least more trouble than normal.
The statistical models -- CLIPER, SHIPS, and so on -- will likely have some trouble, as they rely on what they know. Even the FSU Superensemble, which incorporates a lot of training/climo into its database, will likely have some trouble with such a case.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 18 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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as of 8 pm EDT Adrian 60mph ENE 8mph and the NHC says could strengthen into a hurricane on thursday.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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didn't see this earlier today....
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT WED 18 MAY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-001
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL LOW LEVEL INVEST ON REMNENTS
OF TS ADRIAN NEAR 16N AND 86.5W AT 20/2000Z, ALSO PSBL GIV
MISSION CENTERED AROUND 21/0000Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN
FLIGHT ONE
A. 19/1700Z
B. AFXXX 0101E ADRIAN
C. 19/1130Z
D. 13.0N 90.5W
E. 19/1600Z TO 20/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE
WVW
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:19 AM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Tampa's Fox 13 is doing a special on hurricane items. It'll be interesting to hear what the local met has to say about Adrian/Arlene/Dysfunctional Hurricane #1 shortly.
I believe that at the 5pm advisory they did say she was moving ESE; haven't seen any loops yet to see if that's changed.
Ok, I'm listening to this guy talk about buying these things like kevlar screens, $20,000 generators and etc...a total of $50,000 to get one guy's house ready. People here are still trying to get there house's fixed from LAST year.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Well, if he/she/it takes the track it's currently forecast to take, I don't think they'll be much left of it when it crosses into the Carribean/Gulf. Sounds like the biggest problem will be the rain - 20-25" across CA. How do you possibly prepare for that?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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Colleen is that special on Fox 13 on tonight?? Or tomorrow sometime? I would like to see it. Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:42 AM |
Omg!!!
|
The Ir satellite shows a round but very compact storm. With a eye maybe no more then 8 miles across. I'm scared that we are looking at another charley.
]
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 01:56 PM |
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up up and away...2 the storm
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000
URNT11 KNHC 191310
97779 13084 50257 88000 76200 28020 75//1 /5750
RMK AF302 0101E ADRIAN OB 02
AF 302
been a while but i think aircraft was at 25.7, 88.0 and heading towards the storm.... at 28ft?
i think danielw could uncode better
umm heres another one....i just got
URPN11 KNHC 191628
97779 16254 51136 91808 15200 03023 16158 /2501
40420
RMK AF302 0101E ADRIAN OB 11
time 1625gmt
at 4900 ft now?
Dropsonde Observations 04 adrian
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 19 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: Omg!!!
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WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE
CARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
Does not look like anything we have to worry about.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Omg!!!
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It's like a premature birth; too early for the climatic conditions to be favorable.
We have the real season to worry about; all in due time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 19 2005 02:05 PM |
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please help
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Is there a site where I can check the current status of the bermuda high?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 03:07 PM |
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Re: please help
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ftlaudbob: any page with weather maps that cover the region or upper air charts... or model runs to prog it out for the next few weeks. you pretty much just look for it. i can tell you that right now it essentially isn't there.. deep layer westerly flow over much of the atlantic basin is anomalously far to the south (thus we have a pacific storm coming backwards toward central america).
everybody: nowhere near as gung-ho as earlier. javlin correctly surmised yesterday evening that the n-s elongation of the system meant that adrian was finally going to take a more poleward path; and it has. the storm looks lined to landfall closer to the guatemala/el salvador border now... or at least northern el salvador. the small cdo has an intermittent eye feature.. the storm may be a bit stronger than the official statements say... but it has hardly strengthened since yesterday morning. it's in a mild-moderate shear environment now, and probably won't strengthen much more. so much for the cat 2/3 ideas. minimal 1 maaaaybe. it's survival is also iffier, because the storm is very small and going to landfall in a sheared environment. i don't expect it to survive crossing land anymore. there are still minor concerns with a center redeveloping to the se lower in the caribbean or a festering system north of the islands getting a brief window as the subtropical jet wends about. but tropical activity will more then likely end for the near future when/if adrian loses its identity tonight. they just bumped the winds up a notch in the intermittent advisory. maybe there will be a slight forced strengthening as the storm hits parallel to the coast (an effect bastardi used to point out). and just maybe recon will find slightly stronger winds. but it looks like adrian will be mercifully weak compared to what was being viewed as possible just yesterday.
HF 1606z19may
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu May 19 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: please help
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I have to agree on that one HF with the system now probably going to exit on the other side at about 16'N to close for comfort to the shear monger.The jet is maybe 200 miles -240 miles to the N.If Adrian may of stayed on a little more S course redelvelopment would of been a possiblility.I give it 20-25% now on the other side for development if that another dead goose.Shoot it's waling into it head on
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/archive/wg8shr-1.html
| Sadie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu May 19 2005 04:11 PM |
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Re: please help
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I have been planning to spend the summer with you guys, but I didn't expect check in time would be the middle of May! Just glad you're always there when things start spinning. I've been keeping my eye on this little dandy, especially since my roof is still blue and our poor little town is beginning to have moments of normalcy.
Prayers for everyone's safety this season.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu May 19 2005 05:57 PM |
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Adrian upgraded
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Now a Cat 1 hurricane---confirmed by recon. Just announced.
MM
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 06:35 PM |
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Re: Adrian upgraded
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The first hurricane in EPAC is Adrian. C.A. is getting a lot of rain. I just hope and pray that people were warned and evacuated.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 06:44 PM |
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Re: please help
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Quote:
ftlaudbob: any page with weather maps that cover the region or upper air charts... or model runs to prog it out for the next few weeks. you pretty much just look for it. i can tell you that right now it essentially isn't there.. deep layer westerly flow over much of the atlantic basin is anomalously far to the south (thus we have a pacific storm coming backwards toward central america).
everybody: nowhere near as gung-ho as earlier. javlin correctly surmised yesterday evening that the n-s elongation of the system meant that adrian was finally going to take a more poleward path; and it has. the storm looks lined to landfall closer to the guatemala/el salvador border now... or at least northern el salvador. the small cdo has an intermittent eye feature.. the storm may be a bit stronger than the official statements say... but it has hardly strengthened since yesterday morning. it's in a mild-moderate shear environment now, and probably won't strengthen much more. so much for the cat 2/3 ideas. minimal 1 maaaaybe. it's survival is also iffier, because the storm is very small and going to landfall in a sheared environment. i don't expect it to survive crossing land anymore. there are still minor concerns with a center redeveloping to the se lower in the caribbean or a festering system north of the islands getting a brief window as the subtropical jet wends about. but tropical activity will more then likely end for the near future when/if adrian loses its identity tonight. they just bumped the winds up a notch in the intermittent advisory. maybe there will be a slight forced strengthening as the storm hits parallel to the coast (an effect bastardi used to point out). and just maybe recon will find slightly stronger winds. but it looks like adrian will be mercifully weak compared to what was being viewed as possible just yesterday.
HF 1606z19may
Sure whole lot of maybe's when the hurricane is 6 hours till' landfall... Anyway, a 500 mb ridge is lifting to the north of the storm, allowing it to push more north then forecasted. This combined with the shortwave energy diving into the gulf will spell SHEAR for the remnants of Adrian, once in the Atlantic. The enviorinment has now become unfavorable for decent strengthenening, there could be though a increase in 10 15 kts before landfall with the sun at it's maximum, and the landfalling effect that HF pointed out. In other terms, the storm is past it's prime, and there is a very minute chance the remnants of Adrian will regenerate once in the Atlantic...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 07:09 PM |
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maybes
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thats because i'm concerned with more than the next six hours, keith. i'm still not buying the official that the 'remnants' will keep on booking ene. they'll go generally that way, just not quite so fast. adrian may decouple from its convection partially, and drift more to the east. provided it didn't do this over land that would give it a higher chance of regeneration, clinging to the periphery of the subtropical jet and not being completely sheared out. the upper trough is still digging to the west, so in a sense it is also enhancing adrian's outflow.
as for the intensity: i thought the intensity was a little low and recon confirmed it (didn't think the central pressure was that low though). so as far as the maybe's i had earlier, they've grown if anything. adrian is keeping inside that range of intensity that doesn't allow the forecast to be straightforward. the safest bet is that it doesn't regenerate, but i don't think it's quite that clear cut. that's just going with analogous climo, and the shear conditions (which don't always have the same effect on NE-ward moving systems).
HF 2008z19may
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 07:18 PM |
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Re: maybes
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Quote:
thats because i'm concerned with more than the next six hours, keith. i'm still not buying the official that the 'remnants' will keep on booking ene. they'll go generally that way, just not quite so fast. partially because adrian may decouple from its convection partially, and drift more to the east. provided it didn't do this over land that would give it a higher chance of regeneration, clinging to the periphery of the subtropical jet and not being completely sheared out. i thought the intensity was a little low and recon confirmed it (didn't think the central pressure was that low though). so as far as the maybe's i had earlier, they've grown if anything. adrian is keeping inside that range of intensity that doesn't allow the forecast to be straightforward. the safest bet is that it doesn't regenerate, but i don't think it's quite that clear cut. it's just going with analogous climo, and the shear conditions (which don't always have the same effect on NE-ward moving systems).
HF 2008z19may
what do you suppose will happen if the storm happens to miracoulsy avoid the shear? The most important hours of a storm are the hours of landfall...and we're already on to bigger and better things. I just feel doing that will have a total disregard for what will happen in CA...that's all.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 07:40 PM |
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Re: maybes
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Adrian is still pretty much holding his own, and it wouldn't surprise me if he strengthens by a few knots before landfall...even with the watches and warnings posted for el salvador & guatemala, this is gonna be a tremendous rainmaker, especially as he makes his trek across the mountains...i fear (although on a smaller scale) death and destruction similar to that seen during the may unnamed storm and jeanne in haiti...mudslides and mud huts don't mix well...
as far as "regeneration" once he crosses the ca mountains, i think right now its a crap shoot....i will say this, though, adrian probably emerges on the other side as a td, and if he should gain enough strength to reach ts status, it's a fair bet the NHC will call this arlene...i'm certainly not willing to say this will happen, but we cannot discount this as a possibility, at least not yet...
keith and HanKFranK both bring forth excellent points...either way, we have a minimal hurricane about to strike the central american coast and he may, if current and predicted movement remains, take the path of least resistance, milage wise, to our basin...
welcome to hurricane season 2005...looks like ima come up with a new season slogan for this year...tsfh is over and we could have an early start to 2005
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 07:46 PM |
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Re: maybes
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it isn't going to avoid the shear. it might deal with it better than forecast. central america is going to get rained on and the coastal areas of el salvador will get high winds. you can read all that in the official forecast, so i didn't think it bore repeating. my interest is in potential scenarios of the storm's crossing. none of my thoughts are far removed from yours in this sense; i think it has a slim chance of survival (earlier today without the recon i saw almost none, but it turns out they had adrian underrated, and i was going on less information). you need to read what i say and form your criticisms a little better than that, keith, if they're to have any merit. i have only one request; that you stop quoting my entire comment in yours. if people want to read what i said, they can scroll up a little and see the exact same text--it's redundant clutter.
HF 2045z19may
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 19 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: maybes
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I don't think this is the worst looking hurricane I've ever seen, but it's not a very happy system. The biggest factor against any regeneration is the size of the system. Smaller systems as we know tend to be more fragile, subject to rapid intensification, and also very easily disrupted given moderately negative conditions. The storm just isn't big enough to generate it's own weather really.
Mind you, Adrian will still be a reasonable low pressure when it makes it across central america, and it also appears to be travelling with the upper airflow. Which might be good, or it might encourage a transition to a non tropical cyclone once the storm center gets disrupted by the mountains and land.
Just musing, and remember I know nothing
-Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu May 19 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: maybes
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Adrian finally felt the impact of the trough and has started to take go more poleward (the previous N-S elongation comment was spot on). El Salvador still looks like a good bet for landfall; exactly where is not the key, however, it's areas to the east of the storm. There appears to be a bit too much shear in the region for much more strengthening, but the current appearance of the storm looks to be a bit like Hurricane Earl in 1998 (Atlantic basin). The trailing convective bands developing to the east of the storm hints at massive rainfall totals to come; it may also hint at a very early start to the extratropical transition process, but I'm not buying that yet.
As for redevelopment in the Atlantic...we will see. Landfall in Cent. Amer. is likely about 18-24hr from now, with passage from there into the Caribbean as, well, something. How much of something remains to be determined. If it survives the journey relatively intact, it'll likely weaken from there on out (if not become extratropical); if it doesn't, the remnants may just stick around for awhile under weak low-level flow. Like HF mentioned, the possibility for it to deviate from the projected course or become decoupled from the mid-level circulation is there...though also as he mentioned, safest bet is to stick with the forecast.
Rainfall, as noted last night and afternoon, is the biggest concern with this storm. Landfall in about 18hr with an intensity of 75kt or so at its peak somewhere along the El Salvador coast is the likely evolution over the next day or so. From there on out...we'll see.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 08:50 PM |
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OT
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My critisms aren't affecting you?
I'm not trying to critize, nor am I trying to be witty, and yes I will take your request of not quoting into consideration next time (and this) I'm responding.
you'd be wise to take it more than just into consideration
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 19 2005 10:15 PM |
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Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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596
WTPZ31 KNHC 192043
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
...ADRIAN HEADING FOR CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 85 MPH WINDS...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE EASTWARD ALONG THE EL SALVADOR COAST TO THE
EL SALVADOR-HONDURAS BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
HONDURAS...INCLUDING THE GOLFO DE FONSECA...AND FOR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF GUATEMALA FROM SIPACATE WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA-MEXICO
BORDER.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES... 150 KM... SOUTHWEST OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR.
ADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND A
GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF ADRIAN WILL REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER
TONIGHT.
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADRIAN IS
A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 70 MILES...110 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS
983 MB...29.03 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF NEAR 20 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ADRIAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...12.9 N... 90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
$$
This is pretty self-explanatory.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:04 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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In the latest sat loops she is becoming elongated.
Jeff, Adrian is a HE.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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yep
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:18 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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Yes Adrian last gas for the next 12 hours as shear is increasing as it gets closer to the coast.Also part of the circulation is already in the high terrain being very affected by those big mountains there.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:19 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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if the center is in the northern part of the storm it will be making landfall soon.
the reason I think it is in the northern part is looking at these:
vis
pic
ir
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:32 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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Obviously concerned for the people being affected, I can't imagine that they are as prepared as we become when a storm is on the way.
Hoping the storm will dissipate soon and definitely not make it's way to the Bahamas. They have been through so much last season.
If the storm were to survive and regroup and follow the projected path into the Atlantic, is it possible it would end up entangled in this Bermuda High and have no way to go except back at us? I of course am not sure of what's prevailing/path of least resistance out there.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:44 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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Unless by some miracle of God, I don't think we in Florida have to worry about this, buddy.
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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i really wouldn't call it a miracle.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warning's up for el salvador
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i think i have to agree with hurricane run on this one...
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 19 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: maybes
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the GFDL isn't calling that much of a come back. GFDL But hey its the tropics we'll have to wait and see
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 20 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: maybes
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looking at the GFDL 2005051918 run .....at the end of the run...hints that maybe the extropical low my turn back to the north or even northwest, near or towards bermuda?...... just some long range looks...... still would have to survive the cntrl amer. mountains first, which looks like its not going to....
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri May 20 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: maybes
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Take a look at the last frame of the water vapor image,she seems to pull herself together.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri May 20 2005 04:32 AM |
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arlene may have to wait
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me thinks land may spell doom for adrian, although there is always the chance he survives his trek across the mountains and makes it to the other side....
i just can't forsee conditions being perfect enough for proper regeneration, though i 'spose it can't be completely ruled out...
i just hope he doesn't dump 20+ inches in the mountains on his way across...that could be very very bad for whomever happens to be in the path of the runoff...
guess we'll know more by morning's light...
till then...
ya'll have a g'nite
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 20 2005 05:59 AM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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adrian is moving inland now, as per the intermediate advisory. the stats were adjusted to very minimal hurricane strength, so adrian's feet-dry survival chances are slimmer yet. the convection will probably shear off overnight and leave a flaring, exposed llc. since the nhc has been discussing the idea for days, i reckon they'll continue to track whatever comes off even if it's really pathetic as far as tropical cyclones go. even odds they'll call it t.d. adrian or t.d. 1A. the chances of it ever getting back to t.s. strength aren't too great, but if so, it'll be one of those interesting decision-making processes to see what the nhc does. they probably just want adrian to go away, rather than have to listen to half the folks who think differently than their application of naming conventions bicker about them. i've done that often enough that... well, i feel a little guilty. the discussions issued so far have done much to explain their philosophy and i applaud them for that. makes it easier to ignore that opinionated historical database nazi in me that wants to see congruencies and consistent application of the rules throughout. what can i say, climo is my thing...
unless adrian pulls something else miraculous (aside from being the only hurricane to landfall in el salvador on record).. that's probably our may system right there. in retrospect, am a little surprised that the major media hasn't picked up on this odd little storm. i guess if it isn't threatening new orleans or miami it isn't news. but then, if it doesn't make the news now it will be because it didn't hurt el salvador/honduras too bad. so say a prayer that adrian doesn't get a headline, for the welfare of our neighbors to the south.
HF 0658z20may
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 20 2005 09:43 AM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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I agree. Adrien has a poor change of survival through the mountains and the upcoming wind shear.
This year is starting off on the strange side. Looks to be an interesting season.
MaryAnn
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 10:13 AM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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the mountains are just tearing it apart.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 10:37 AM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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hey peeps! well looks like adrian is a goner. so what's next anything coming off of africa. the carribeans look active but everything is still going east for now. what's up with that low shooting straight southeast and causing tropical storm force winds last nigh in kentucky? so when do we think the first named atlantic storm will be and do u see any thing in june? the waters are pretty warm. ive been checking the bouies some are at 83.
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 20 2005 11:43 AM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Yep Arlene will have to wait.CMC as late as yesterday morning still prog her to develop now absolutly nothing.NOGAPS basically 1008mb low,UKMET alittle more mybe a TD still can't see that.GFS sees nothing.I think we might have to wait till late June or early July for Arlene.The sub-tropical jet needs to move out with it's shear.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 20 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Agree with that javlin.Here in Puerto Rico I would like to see the normal trade winds that blow from the east return because in all May those winds haved been absent.Until that jet lifts northward I guess that the trades wont be around.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 12:46 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Adios Adrien. South west shear will probably inhibit any developement of whats left of the system when it hits the Caribbean. Pray for the people around Puerto La Libertad. Lots of rain and flooding for them today.......Weatherchef
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri May 20 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Adrien is completely torn apart. This there a place where we can look at a radar of CA?
| Colleen A. |
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| Fri May 20 2005 01:38 PM |
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Re: Adrian/Arlene
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It was on the other night, but maybe you can go to their website and get some more information about it.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Try the Global Hydrology and Climate Center. Once on the home page , click on the satellite image tab. This is an interactive site that I`m sure you will injoy. Follow the menu, after awhile you`ll get the hang of it......Weatherchef
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 20 2005 01:47 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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In 1999, I went to Hawaii (Maui). I remember that when you woke up in the morning, you could not see the mountains because the tradewinds were blowing east instead of west, which caused a lot of the volcanic ash to cover the island. I can't remember the exact name of what they called it, but people with respiratory problems were told it would be safer to stay inside.
I also remember that the plane ride from LA to Maui took longer than usual because we were flying INTO the trade winds, but the ride home was cut from about 5 hours to just around 3-1/2 due to the very strong tail winds that were pushing us back to the states. I believe that the pilot said that they were almost 300+ mph, but I'm not sure if that's completely accurate.
Would the trade winds that had reversed in 1999 be the same thing that is causing Adrian to move west to east instead of east to west? I'm thinking that's the case, but I'm not entirely sure.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 20 2005 02:05 PM |
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Re: arlene may have to wait
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Colleen -- it's really just a case of unusually strong winds associated with a trough from the mid-latitudes dipping into the deep tropics and steering the storm northeast, rather than just the trades. That's at least partially likely what happened in Hawaii in 1999 for you as well, potentially associated with the subtropical jet stream.
As for Adrian now...in the immortal words of Bones McCoy, "he's dead, Jim." Very difficult to find a LLC on visible satellite imagery and the northeast side of the storm -- where you'd expect to see the strongest winds -- isn't even showing a hint of a circulation (e.g. winds out of the east) over the open water in the Caribbean on the 1100 UTC QuikSCAT passage. I expect to see the storm declassified after the 11am (ET) advisory, with its remnants not likely redeveloping in the Caribbean: the shear is just too strong. It should become absorbed into a frontal zone somewhere around the time it meets up with Cuba.
Alas, no "A" in the Atlantic basin just quite yet, I'm afraid (well, not really afraid, but you all get the jist of it).
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 20 2005 05:25 PM |
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any cool hurricane links?
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Anybody got any cool hurricane links for the upcoming season?Free of course.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Try wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/..........Weatherchef
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 20 2005 05:55 PM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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This is my collection
National Weather Service Homepage
Tropical Forecast Models
Central Florida Hurricane Center
StormCentral.org
BoatU.S. Hurricane Center
Buckeye Weather
CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
CPC - Monitoring & Data: Daily North Atlantic Oscillation Index
MJO Graphic
Hurricane Alley
NRL Homepage
SOI Values
Meteorological Center - My Website
NWS Detroit/Pontiac Weather Glossary
Operational Significant Event Imagery
PC Beach Weather
Satellite Services Division - Tropical Products
Texas A&M Weather Page
Interesting Case Study for Florida
The System for Convection Analysis and Nowcasting (SCAN)
Tropical RAMSDIS Online
Unisys Weather
Weather Underground
Mid Atlantic Weather
NOAA Environmental Visualization Program
RAP Real Time Weather Data
National Hurricane Center
Storm Prediction Center
Glad to see the board active again, just got back from the Bahamas, and they still have a lot of debris to get cleaned up. Tourist area is cleaned up, but outside that, work needs doing. Along much of the coast, i couldn't see any storm surge protection, aside from a large rock or two scattered around. Bad drainage system too, roads were covered by water after a thunderstorm, so they must have been washed out after last years barrage of Hurricanes.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Fri May 20 2005 11:18 PM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Need to add Lou's tropical weather watch to the list. Don't know where he gets the sat pix, but they're great!!!!
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat May 21 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Not quite an information link, but you can find some of the most incredible images I have ever seen here:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Natural...amp;topic=storm
Large, High quality files... great for posters.
sorry to edit this, jeffery, but i clicked on it and i got about four popups (even with my new computer and it's blocking skills), so i'm afraid it may be a bad link...
EDIT: Really? I would think that NASA would be immune to such things. Oh well... as you said.
Everyone note that Phil deleted the link in queston and not the one above, so fear not to click on it. Some truly awesome true color high quality images. Most of these are used for promotional material concerning hurricanes.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 21 2005 05:24 AM |
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is it safe to say that...
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is it safe to say that long island is due for a hurricane one of these days, i hear many people up here saying "oh, yea ones due up here..we were spared like fro the last 3 years, hey florida..share the wealth ok, gosh freaking idiots
lol, thanks eveyone..:p [i]RyAn[/i]
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat May 21 2005 08:21 AM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Thanks for the great links. Those who live in Florida may want to take the time to visit one in particular. I found it particularly disturbing, considering all of the canes that hit us last year.
Case Against Florida
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat May 21 2005 10:33 AM |
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY
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JOHN C.!!!!!!!!!!!
and katie
Best Wishes & Many Many More!!!!
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 21 2005 11:13 AM |
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Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY
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Happy birthday and have many more.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 21 2005 11:45 AM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Cool link LadyStorm, so that's why Charley went right over my house. Sounds like we need to empty all of our freezer ice boxes into the ocean, maybe that will fix it.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 21 2005 11:47 AM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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Big blow up of convection in the ITCZ near South America, but it looks like it's too far south to do anything.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat May 21 2005 12:11 PM |
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Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY
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Happy Birthday to you both
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat May 21 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: any cool hurricane links?
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It was one on Jamie's list that I found interesting. Can't take the credit for finding it.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat May 21 2005 02:10 PM |
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Re: HAPPY BIRTHDAY
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HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO U BOTH....BEST WISHES
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat May 21 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: whats near
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is that an extropical wave near 30n 40w? looks pretty strong on sats. Is it the next perfect storm?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat May 21 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: whats near
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No storm out there is the next "perfect storm." That storm coincided with the merger of an extratropical low and a tropical cyclone into a single, extratropical cyclone that later briefly gained a warm-core structure. There's not a whole lot to separate it from a lot of other things that happen out there, or have happened out there, except for the notoriety.
The system at 30N/40W is an extratropical feature. These happen all of the time through the winter and spring months.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat May 21 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: whats near
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Notoriety indeed...
Halloween hurricane:
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 22 2005 12:00 AM |
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Re: whats near
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Quote:
No storm out there is the next "perfect storm." That storm coincided with the merger of an extratropical low and a tropical cyclone into a single, extratropical cyclone that later briefly gained a warm-core structure. There's not a whole lot to separate it from a lot of other things that happen out there, or have happened out there, except for the notoriety.
The system at 30N/40W is an extratropical feature. These happen all of the time through the winter and spring months.
I was pondering mentioning the item located 30N/40W a few hours ago, because the models are calling a shallow warm core feature, but looking at the upper level winds headed it's way, it has absolutely no chance of developing (not to mention, the water temp is around 20 deg C.) So I figured there wouldn't be a point in mentioning something that looks cool but is a sitting duck
But now, I will mention it, and I'm sure Clark doesn't need my validation, but yeah, it's got no chance.
-Mark
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun May 22 2005 12:05 AM |
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The "Perfect Storm"
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Not to correct Clark, as he is essentially correct anyway, but having read Sebastian Junger's book and the subsequent adaptation onto the bigscreen, i learned much of this storm...here's a fairly terse event of the separate and unique storm systems which all came together to form what was called "The Perfect Storm". No storm is a "perfect storm", but it seemed like a catchy title (supposedly one of the NWS or local forecasters "coined" this term, though he denies ever making this statement on air)...here, then, is that summary:
The making of a 'perfect storm'
On Oct. 27, 1991, Hurricane Grace formed over the warm Atlantic Ocean southwest of Bermuda. The hurricane continued to grow over the warm waters of the Atlantic. By late on Oct. 28, the storm's 95 mph winds pushed 10 - 15 foot swells towards the coast of the Southeast USA.
Meanwhile, along the East Coast, the weather on Oct. 28 began to show improvement as high pressure moved in behind a cold front that moved off the coast earlier in the day. Along the eastward marching cold front, a new area of spinning low pressure developed just east of Nova Scotia.
On Oct. 29, Grace moved north along the front toward the stalling low-pressure area. Drawing Grace into its large circulation, the low-pressure system exploded into a major storm as it fed off the temperature difference provided by cold, dry air to its northwest clashing with the warmth and humidity from the remnants of Grace.
But it wasn't until this intense low-pressure area moved west toward the USA and then south and east to a point midway between Bermuda and New Jersey that it reached its maximum intensity. At this point on Oct. 30, sustained winds in the storm reached 70 mph, churning the Atlantic into a maelstrom of 40- to 80-foot waves, as reported by a weather buoy east of Long Island, N.Y. Other unsubstantiated observations reported winds and waves considerably higher, including a 101 foot wave measured by a buoy south of Nova Scotia, Canada.
During Oct. 30 - 31, the storm, still churning over the Atlantic, pounded much of eastern North America from North Carolina to Nova Scotia with waves 10 to 30 feet high. High tides along the coast were three to seven feet above normal, exacerbating the storm's effects. Heavy surf and extreme coastal flooding caused extensive damage along the New England and mid-Atlantic coast. Damage estimates in Massachusetts alone reached $100 million. Federal disaster areas were declared for seven counties in Massachusetts, five in Maine, and one in New Hampshire.Coastal flooding and raging seas raked places from Jamaica to Newfoundland, Canada.
The storm continued to churn the Atlantic for another two days before making landfall along the Nova Scotia coast November 2, 1991. As if its tumultuous life was not already enough, the immense mid-latitude storm evolved into a hurricane again when its center moved over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Nov. 1. Hurricane hunters dispatched to the storm confirmed the transistion. But the National Hurricane Center decided not to name the hurricane for fear it would unnecessarily alarm coastal residents that had just weathered a major northeaster, as well as confuse people into thinking it might mean another major storm.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun May 22 2005 01:58 AM |
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Anomalies or abnormalities?
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From today's 2:05 EDT Tropical Weather Discussion.
"... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR BARBADOS RIDGING WESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE W ATLC. ELY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS...UNUSUAL FOR MAY WHICH USUALLY HAS 20-25 KT WINDS COMING FROM THE WEST IN THOSE AREAS. A DRIER PATTERN WILL MOVE FROM W TO E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS SE... WITH MUCH GREATER-THAN- AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN ENDING MON ON JAMAICA AND TUE ON HISPANIOLA THOUGH CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A BIT WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS..."
I saw the High pressure ridge depicted on the Tropical maps yesterday, but didn't really think that much of it. I wonder how this might influence the Caribbean Climatology for the upcoming Hurricane season. Or, will it have any effect at all?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun May 22 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: The "Perfect Storm"
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I apologize about my post...I'm a little touchy about the subject of the "perfect storm" because it really isn't all that different from what we've seen in many other cases, just with added notoriety, bringing it (unnecessarily, IMO) well into the forefront of the public's minds.
For instance, the first part about the extratropical storm capturing Grace: that's a classic extratropical transition followed by merger. The uniqueness comes in that there appeared to be a blocking pattern over the Atlantic, preventing the storm from continuing east. A warm-seclusion occured -- as evidenced with a warm core at low levels (but not upper levels) -- and the system, over the Gulf Stream, began to transition again into a hybrid-type of storm, with very strong winds (and an eye-like feature) well-removed from the center of the storm. We see the warm seclusion evolution after ET about 1/4 of the time of all ETs, making it not all that uncommon either.
Just my feelings on the matter...
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun May 22 2005 12:24 PM |
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Re: Anomalies or abnormalities?
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Danielw what do you mean when to say the ridge may influence Caribbean Climatology?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon May 23 2005 01:11 AM |
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Where's my royalties?
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I just got done watching an outstanding documentary by the National Geographic Channel on Hurricane Season 2004....i don't know if they'll rerun it (I'm sure they will) but everyone should be on the look out for it (I'll also try to find when it will play again).
I know this is slightly off-topic, but since the boards are dead, ima post on the main page...i urge anyone who can watch this to do so, as there was a mobile doppler team which made some fascinating discoveries about the nature of winds within the eyewall....basically they discovered that along with the 'sustained' winds, which are of course quite strong, there are random 'super' (my words) winds which are also contained in the eyewall and which basically can produce damage like that produced by tornadoes (where one building can be totally demolished, yet the one next door is left relatively in tact). I hope this new phenomenon can be much more fully explored as we move forward...really, this was not your typical "weather channel" crapola...this was some serious research and after last year, explains the 'hit and miss' damage we saw so frequently.
in addition...they used the phrase "The Season From Hell" twice...
but i didn't see no credits to LI Phil at the end...oh well...if we can avoid a repeat of last year, i'll let the phrase go out there for anyone who wants to use it...i guess i wasn't the only one who felt this way...
lets at least hope things are quiet until Memorial Day this season...
Cheers,
LI Phil
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon May 23 2005 01:17 AM |
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Re: Anomalies or abnormalities?
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Quote:
"... ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID/UPPER HIGH IS NEAR BARBADOS RIDGING WESTWARD TO NICARAGUA AND NORTHWARD INTO THE W ATLC. ELY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS LIES S OF THE RIDGE AXIS... UNUSUAL FOR MAY WHICH USUALLY HAS 20-25 KT WINDS COMING FROM THE WEST IN THOSE AREAS. A DRIER PATTERN WILL MOVE FROM W TO E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH SLIPS SE... WITH MUCH GREATER-THAN- AVERAGE CHANCES OF RAIN ENDING MON ON JAMAICA AND TUE ON HISPANIOLA THOUGH CONDITIONS STILL LOOK A BIT WETTER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS..."
I saw the High pressure ridge depicted on the Tropical maps yesterday, but didn't really think that much of it. I wonder how this might influence the Caribbean Climatology for the upcoming Hurricane season. Or, will it have any effect at all?
I didn't say it Would influence the climatology. I was wondering if it might influence the climatology.
I see that San Juan, PR tied a record high of 95 degrees on Saturday. So the high pressure ridge anomaly is having some influence on the area.
Two things come to mind with a high pressure ridge.
Warm/ Hot temperatures, and normally a lack of convection under the ridge.
I also noticed a few other refences to oddities in yesterday's Tropical Weather Discussion.
"...TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING S AMERICA ALONG 48W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A FAIR SIGNATURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURE WITH CONVECTION W OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE ITCZ... MEANING THE WAVE IS EXPERIENCING ELY SHEAR... WHICH IS RATHER ODD FOR AN EARLY-SEASON WAVE ..."
link>
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505211716
"...HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA S OF 13N SINCE THE PACIFIC ITCZ IS N OF ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W. AN E/W AXIS EXTENDS W TO NICARAGUA. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N FROM S AMERICA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA..."
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505220005
Louis, maybe one of the Mets can give us a little insight into these oddities, and what they may or may not bring with them.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon May 23 2005 01:25 AM |
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Re: Where's my royalties?
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OK: I just found the future showings for this program...i don't know if everybody's cable/satellite provider is on the same schedule, but since it's the "National Geographic Channel" they should be...this includes a reairing tonight at 11: 00 (EDT) as well as a few in the next week or two...:
Future Airings:
Explorer, NGC May 22 11:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 25 02:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 28 07:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 29 08:00pm
Explorer, NGC May 29 11:00pm
Explorer, NGC Jun 01 02:00pm
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danielw
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| Mon May 23 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Where's my royalties?
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Sorry to interrupt your post there Phil. I was trying to clarify a post I made last night.
For research on the Doppler Eyewall Winds. You might do a search engine on Dr Josh Wurman at Center For Severe Weather Research .
http://216.241.44.49/
http://www.cswr.org/projects/hurricane/hal2004.php
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2004/dow.shtml
The Hurricane Research Division of NOAA also has some data on landfalling Hurricane Eyewall Winds. Usually from land based radar and the NOAA P-3 Aircraft data.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon May 23 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Where's my royalties?
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That's OK Danny...your info is more important than mine...just for the heck of it, i did a "search" for the first time i used the phrase "the SEASON FROM HELL"...turns out it was Sept. 16, 2004...so...where's my royalties???
check it out...remember what last season was like???
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....=true#Post28568
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danielw
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| Mon May 23 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: Where's my royalties?
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They are in the mail.
Sept 16th should be around the time Ivan was spinning up.
And No. All info is important here...at least while NHC/ TPC is quiet! Shhhh, don't say that too loud.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon May 23 2005 11:03 PM |
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late spring pattern (repost)
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From HanKFranK:
as far as the pattern this year, there are as usual a few unusual twists... perhaps more so than usual. there is a lot of high latitude blocking and a pronounced longwave pattern right right now. there is a persistent trough and low height anomaly in the east and western atlantic.. recently very warm with ridging in the west. as far as the basin goes, you can have above normal SSTs any day, but basin shear is still much to high to allow anything to develop. there is ridging at low latitudes... around the caribbean and such. a blocking ridge has been migrating westward from the eastern atlantic. with all the blocking at high latitudes, stronger than normal low-height anomalies are in the mid latitudes. i think this pattern will persist into june.. when the westerlies weaken as the summer progresses, if a pattern such as this persists, we'll probably see a hybrid storm or two and odd-tracks for anything that develops at lower latitudes. the late summer pattern, when it becomes stable (probably late july-august) i'm thinking will be some longitudinally reconfigured version of what we had last year. that's only based on SST patterns.. with the anomalous blocking currently in place i'm not sure how it will evolve.. but when it does show up i'm thinking it will be stable.
HF 1841z23may
(Note: original post was moved with off-topic posts on new NWS radar link - see the E&N Forum which was more appropriate.)
ED
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 24 2005 03:11 PM |
Special Tropical Disturbance Statement
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WONT41 KNHC 241449
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT 24 MAY 2005
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER AXNT20 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWDAT.
FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH
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| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue May 24 2005 04:41 PM |
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Re: LI Phil 5/22/05
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Phil:
I wanted to respond to your comments on the Nat'l Geographic documentary re: vorticities in the eyewall:
We were north of Charlie, never lost power, and were fascinated as the new technology in use by the TV mets (VIPR) broadcast in agonizing slow motion the land fall of the storm. What was most interesting was the shear markers in the radar and the discussion of vorticies riding around the eye wall as the storm hit.
One only needs to look at the damage the Punta Gorda/ Port Charlotte to see the explosive nature of the winds that did so much destruction. Indeed the video we were able to watch on this site also showed that...only a few minutes of very violent winds.
One of the facts that fascinates me the most about that storm was the extrordinary pressure gradient that existed within a very few miles...the pressure differences where the film crew was along I75 about 10 -15 miles from the "center" as the storm came over Pine Island toward the mainland was 20-30 MB higher than the central pressure itself.
One only has to watch video of a tornado to see what was actually going on with Charlie as it came to shore. We all have seen those shots of the core funnel cloud which is spinnig rapidly, when suddenly additional vorticies race outward from the funnel as they spin around the core as well..That must be what was going on.
I have been to Pensacola as well where Ivan's eyewall scraped ashore and the damage there is what I would more traditionally expect in a classic Storm...more straight line oriented, in my opinion.
Fascinating stuff.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue May 24 2005 05:50 PM |
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interesting
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NEW TROPICAL WAVE INTRODUCED ALONG THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 17W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EXHIBITING PROBABLY THE BEST SIGNATURE SO FAR THIS SEASON...WITH A CIRCULATION PRIMARILY IN THE MID LEVELS ROLLING W OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU. BOTH THE BAMAKO AND DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE WAVE IS ABOVE 850 MB AND DOES NOT REACH THE SFC AT THE MOMENT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ALL DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ.
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| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 24 2005 05:55 PM |
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QUIET MAY
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WONT41 KNHC 241449
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT 24 MAY 2005
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA. WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS...THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER AXNT20 KNHC AND AWIPS HEADER MIATWDAT.
FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH
$$
DON, i certainly don't want to discourage your posting, this identical post was already made (about 3 before yours). during the season, we don't want to clog the boards with these, as they are available both on the "front" page and the links page. if anyone wants to post the latest discussion or forecast, please make it a link! thanks!
Edited by LI Phil (05/24/05 01:02 PM)
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| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue May 24 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: interesting
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Well???Do we have anything at all here?
| Bloodstar |
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| Tue May 24 2005 07:51 PM |
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Re: interesting
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Quote:
Well??? Do we have anything at all here?
Barring something *very* odd happening, I'm willing to call this a case of the NHC doing a little CYA. There is no reason for the low to develop into anything tropical, but you might be seeing a bit of getting the word out in case something happens that is similar to last year.
It certainly doesn't look like much from the sats...
As an aside, I wonder if this is a piece of energy from Adrian.
Thoughts?
-Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue May 24 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: interesting
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Mark -- the energy left over from Adrian was carried away towards the northeast after it made landfall. The activity currently in the W Caribbean is only remotely related to the system, if it is even related at all. It's more likely related to favorable conditions for convective development; truthfully, I'm kinda surprised the NHC put out anything on it, considering it's state, but then again...it's probably just a CYA thing for the rainfall more than anything else.
| Bloodstar |
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| Tue May 24 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: interesting
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and wonder I shall no longer have to do... thanks for the info Clark.
I was more or less musing, and... being too lazy to look at sat loops to verify *grins*-Mark
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 25 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: interesting
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(duplicate post removed. ED)
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 25 2005 04:11 AM |
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Re: interesting
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Well,It looked to me like there was some confusion about what system we are talking about.
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danielw
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| Wed May 25 2005 04:52 AM |
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Re: interesting *DELETED*
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duplicate post
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 25 2005 05:12 AM |
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NHC/ TPC on top of things!
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE 24 MAY 2005
...WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED...THE LOW AND TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOCUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WED.
THEREFORE...THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS THROUGH WED UNTIL THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED AXIS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LIFTS SLOWLY NWD INTO THE ATLC.
ELSEWHERE...MOISTURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN HAS SHIFTED INTO THE E PAC WITH LESS SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY. HOWEVER...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL STILL BE FAVORED OVER INTERIOR SECTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
SIMILARLY...ACTIVITY OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS LESS WIDESPREAD BUT EXPECT INCREASING ACTIVITY AS AN UPPER JET OVER THE W ATLC STRENGTHENS PRODUCING INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 70W...GETS PULLED NWD AROUND THE W PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
Carriage returns added to the above for emphasis on each area of the discussion
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/TWDAT.0505242312
You have the right ideas checking the Tropical Weather Products from NHC/ TPC first. I'm sure some of the Mets on the board can give actual numbers, but the tropical wave to tropical depression and higher categories ratio is probably close to 1 in 5 or 1 in 8 waves grows into something. That's a 12.5 to 20% chance that one will become a depression or higher. This time of year, ( Pre Hurricane Season ), I would think that there would be less than a 5% chance of a Tropical Wave becoming anyhting but a thunderstorm complex. However, We have seen an Eastward moving EPAC Hurricane in the last week, so all bets are off!
I'll see if I can find some links for the 'Earliest Tropical Depression' in the Atlantic.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri May 27 2005 11:06 AM |
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Re: Models
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In the latter part of the GFS model, it has a couple of low pressure signatures in the gulf of mexico. Could this be a sign of a tropical system on the horizon. :?:
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 27 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re:Gray's new # out
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Dr Gray has increased his numbers as anticipated.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/june_zzz/june05.html
| Bloodstar |
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| Sat May 28 2005 03:09 AM |
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Re:Gray's new # out
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I did find it amusing in a very geeky way that they basicly said, (paraphrased) Yeah, the numbers point to an average year, but we think it's bunk so we're going to make our own estimates and call it really active.
I liked that attitude: understanding and recognizing when the previous model has broken down and making a new model, or going with a gut feeling.
(though it's more than a gut feeling as there is some climatological data to support the numbers)
-Mark
| Bloodstar |
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| Sat May 28 2005 03:26 AM |
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Re: Models
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Quote:
In the latter part of the GFS model, it has a couple of low pressure signatures in the gulf of mexico. Could this be a sign of a tropical system on the horizon. :?:
(Standard Disclaimer: IANAM, so what I say is more my own personal thoughts and analysis, Don't rely upon me, because I don't know that I'm talking about!)
Don't see it happening, anything the GFS projects I tend to take with a grain of salt anyway, and what lowpressures it is developing look to be a part of a frontal boundry of sorts. (if it were January or February, I'd say there'd be a shot at a southern snow storm).
Add into it the wind shear doesn't look like it's going to relax for a little while (unless I'm reading things wrong), so everything points to a no go for a ltittle while.
As it is, we're going to have a quiet start to the season, Don't worry, we're going to have plenty of action. Certainly Last year started slow, but oh boy did it make up for it.
-Mark
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat May 28 2005 01:16 PM |
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Re: Models
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The only thing I really see is the CMC, GFS, NOGAPS & UKM models (this morning) trying to get something going in the mid atlantic area in about a week or so... nothing close to home just yet and I'm not too keen on this playing out.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat May 28 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Models
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That's fine that its going to get off to a slow start, I don't want to get hit by three hurricanes again back to back. I still haven't made all the repairs needed, along with a lot of people. My neighboorhood got hit by one of those tornadoes in the eyewall as Charley came over Orlando. My house was spared, but you can go talk to the concrete foundation across the street about their luck.