MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 06 2005 10:40 PM |
The Caribbean
|
Noon June 8th Update
Pressures are dropping and it may be that a depression is forming in the Western Caribbean now. Recon is scheduled to go out there this afternoon to check.
We're definitely watching. Folks along the Northern and Eastern Gulf Coasts will want to watch this system over the next few days.
See Clark's Blog Entry below for more information on this system.
11:46AM Update
Focus is turning toward the Western Caribbean now, as Jason Kelley comments in his blog below. The outlook now brings attention to this area, which is near the Western Caribbean and over the Central America area. If it persists expect to see a recon flight out there tomorrow. It'll be worth watching.
Western Caribbean Chances for Development into a Tropical Depression/Storm
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--------*-------------]
Original Update
There's an early interest spot out in the Caribbean right now, toward the northeastern section. It has a little bit of potential to develop, but I wouldn't expect into much. It has a slight window it could become a depression in over the next few days, but it's not all that likely. Worth watching, however.
Pulling up the old development potential scale it would be:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---*------------------]
Nothing has developet yet, of course, but the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico at the very least will be seeing a decent rain event. We'll keep watch. Personally I don't think these areas ill be our first development of the year.
Event Related Links
Animated model plots of new disturbance area
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 06 2005 10:50 PM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Thanks for the new thread, Mike. Maybe Luis can give us some "up close and personal" reports should anything become of this...the 5:30 TWO does make brief mention of this area, so i suppose it does bear watching:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON JUN 6 2005
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. THIS WEATHER REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 06 2005 10:57 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Yo Mike, Thanks! I am waiting for the latest model runs. The last runs (18Z) are rather tight for an early system like this...
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 12:08 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Yes Phil if anything comes our way as a storm or a hurricane during the season I will be here reporting and right now let's see what occurs with this system south of Puerto Rico.Storm Cooper what do you mean about tight for an early system?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 12:12 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
The paths are rather tight on the last run as opposed the the normal "all over the place" runs. It just seems odd to me they are as close as they are for this one. Nothing I would be alarmed about... the next runs will probably be going in every direction
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 01:00 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Oh ok I agree with that.The models haved been in a flip-flop status with all thiis mess in the Caribbean in some runs they show 2 lows one in the western caribbean and the other near Puerto Rico and in other runs the second low is lost so let's follow what trend the models go for the Caribbean in next runs.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 03:23 AM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
is this the same system the GFDL is picking on? GFDL noname80l 2005060612 looks very weak, not sure why there is even a run....
but then you look at the (later model) gfs 2005060618 and wonder what's that south of panama city in 110 hrs. (The small blue blob).....to me that's looks to be some good surf in the area come next week
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 04:52 AM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
this stuff should be around to watch all week. slow evolution, probably an invest.
HF 0551z07june
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 05:22 AM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean West or East?
|
Well it can be around all week, but tell the CMC model run to stop bringing anything into my back yard. Though I still think the odds of anything coming from this is extremely low, maybe 1 in 5? perhaps lower odds? and the odds that anything forming would shoot north and split the Yucatan Channel is pretty low as well. But, better to be alert than to be shocked. it's something to watch, but I'll be more interested how things lookin 48 - 72 hours.
If something forms in the eastern Caribbean, I would suspect the storm would be hybrid, particularly if it forms north of Puerto Rico. The odds of 2 storms in June? low. The odds of 2 storms at once?? Even lower. Anyone want to try to think of the odds of that one? Heck has there ever been 2 storms at once in the atlantic Basin in June?
Ok, enough rambling
-Mark
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:12 AM |
|
|
two June storms? Yes...once
|
June 23 1968
TS Brenda east of Florida
TS Candy near Texas
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 11:04 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
It appears that if this thing does become something, it'll move up into the Alabama?Florida line. Of course, it's hard to predict where something is going when it doesn't even exist yet.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 03:38 PM |
|
New TWO
|
New TWO is looking at this area that the GFS was latching onto...recon is headed in tomorrow if it keeps going.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 03:39 PM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Happy Hurricane Season 2005 everyone!!!!! Glad to be back and ready to go. Looks like we need to look towards the W. Caribbean now rather than the NE area.
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area. Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system on Wednesday.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 04:14 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Well I have been bullish on this WCarib thing since Friday, but really yesterday since the persistence became a concern.
The trough to the NW has seemed to retrograde to the west, and ridging is occurring between that and the ULL over Hispanola. The trough to the west is acclerating the evacuation of the NW quadrant so it could actualy enhance development now as the SW-NE shear is north and west of the developing system. It looks broad and is just now emerging off the N coast of Honduras. It has a better chance today than it did yesterday. These are just my observations.
Doug
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 05:22 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
We currently have a system over central america and the western carribean today that could become our first tropical storm or even hurricane of the season.
Like Jason said, recon will fly out Weds to collect data to send to the TPC/NHC. I feel when they get there the system will be full out in the w. carribean and a depression nearing TS status. Hard to pinpoint right now the exact evoloution. Models on average make this a TS by Weds night and take it thru the Yucitan Channel by Thurs night and into the S or SE Gulf by Friday morning. Some show its pressure down to near 992mb. After this they diverage but only slightly. Most take it near NO. Couple further east.
Right now for me I see this becoming a storm later Weds evening or night. Movement will be this N to near the western tip of Cuba by Friday morning. I also see it nearing hurricane strength. After that it should cross into the SE Gulf. Right now its too early (more then 3 days) to pinpoint landfall but I agree with the models. Bermuda high aloft will stretch w accros the SE U.S. and Florida and the system should steer N around and W of the ridge. Any weakness late in the week of this ridge could bring it into Florida or the panhandle. The strength should be near hurricane strength but I see dry air moving into the system and erroding the w and sw side by later friday into saturday. Dry air is currently over Mexico and Texas and this should slide eastward. So currently its a tough call.
My 3day forcast is a strong Tropical storm near hurricane stregth in the SE Gulf by mid day Friday. scottsvb
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 05:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
there's still model support for some near/northeast of the lesser antilles later on, but since last night the feature strung from el salvador up to cuba has indications of weak low level turning and ridging aloft. nhc is talking about recon for tomorrow, and the earlier model runs the suddenly began creating a dubious low east of belize have been calling it repeatedly for a couple of days now.. so this is a climo victory and probably an early bad call on my part. it has 'the look' of a formative tropical system right now.. we've seen that briefly on previous features this season, but not with the evidence stacked like it is right now.
the components are there... the northward building ridge in the models is a tad unsettling.. but with an upper ridge poised over the mid atlantic anything that develops won't be a quick and out NE storm across cuba.. it will run up into the gulf. scott's explanation of its potential evolution looks sound... i'm thinking slower evolution. things could be very interesting later this week.
HF 1836z07june
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 05:42 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
In the last few frames of the GFS, it look like there's a low developing above Puerto Rico and just sitting there. Is this a sign of another system?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 05:56 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Finally we got something to watch that actually has a decent chance.
The disturbance in the W Caribbean has really come around since this morning. Last night the Western Caribbean was filled with mostly cloudiness and a few showers. I was very skeptical of yesterday's GFS and CMC runs that were showing a rapidly developing tropical storm by late Wednesday/into Thursday. Now I'll buy into those a LITTLE more than I previously was.
The current CIMISS shear analysis shows a patch of moderate shear to the immediate north of the thunderstorm activity. Over the next few days, the gradual building of the Atlantic ridge should allow for the shear to relax some. The GFS shear forecast is what shows this happening, with a significant decrease in shear by Friday. At the very least, we know that upper-level winds will become more favorable as the week grows on. This should allow for slow development, but perhaps not as fast as what the GFS and CMC are showing.
It is too early to make exact track predictions. By the end of the week, however, the building of the Bermuda High should allow the system to move in a NW to N direction. My current thinking is a Mississippi to FL. Panhandle landfall.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 06:04 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Wow to think we could have a June storm!!! Anyways, what would the conditions have to be in order for the storm to make it to Florida? Or should I say is there a chance it will become a little fishy in the sea?..I'm definetly keeping myself updated on this site now, gotta get ready if we have something to worry about. Thanks all you guys out there keeping all of us updated, I know it puts my mind to ease
| mbfly |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 06:18 PM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Hi Y'all !! Glad to see everyone's here for another exciting
year of hurricane chit chat."It is too early to make exact track predictions. By the end of the week, however, the building of the Bermuda High should allow the system to move in a NW to N direction. My current thinking is a Mississippi to FL. Panhandle landfall."
Uhhhhhh, should I cancel my GOM off the Alabama coast fishing trip for this weekend ????
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 06:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
first
is it me, or is the system S of PR by S America rotating?
the low
second
look at the same loop
the Central America low center is in Honduras near the border, and appears to be moving NNE and should be over water tomorrow
even though this was never initially classified, this is much larger than Adrian was and the shear is not nearly as strong
i just noticed another system near 22N/52W that kind of reminds me of TD4 in 2000
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 06:44 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
What I see are low features in both areas, and models do hold the eastern feature back a bit, but throw something up a day or so later than the western feature.
The Honduran feature is not stacked for rapid growth: the broad surface low seems to be north and west of the middle levels, but it is all over water now.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 07:10 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL902005) ON 20050607 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050607 1800 050608 0600 050608 1800 050609 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.0N 85.5W 17.6N 85.2W 19.1N 85.1W 20.6N 85.6W
BAMM 16.0N 85.5W 17.2N 85.6W 18.1N 85.7W 19.1N 85.9W
A98E 16.0N 85.5W 16.2N 85.5W 16.6N 85.5W 17.2N 85.2W
LBAR 16.0N 85.5W 16.5N 85.4W 17.4N 85.5W 18.5N 86.0W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 26KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050609 1800 050610 1800 050611 1800 050612 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.2N 86.5W 25.7N 88.6W 30.0N 90.2W 34.8N 90.6W
BAMM 20.3N 86.3W 24.1N 86.9W 28.7N 88.0W 32.9N 88.8W
A98E 17.9N 84.5W 19.1N 82.9W 20.3N 82.3W 19.4N 82.5W
LBAR 19.7N 86.9W 22.7N 88.6W 26.3N 89.5W 29.3N 89.8W
SHIP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS
DSHP 34KTS 38KTS 38KTS 28KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 85.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 85.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 85.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The models are starting to plot the Western Caribbean area.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 07:40 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Those numbers of course are based on Sat images and are pretty consistent with the visible appearance of the system. Looks like more rain to me.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 07:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
it says 'tropical depression invest' but there is still no invest on the NRL site
is it behind?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
look at this WV shot of the GOM states and carrb. based on model runs, think we will see ts arlene in a 48-72hrs in the NW carrb. .....my prediction for landfall northern GOM....new orleans to apalach. on weekend
going to be a busy weekend up here in nw florida if it gets going..... remember i think floridians have until the 12th for tax free hurricane supplies....
000
NOUS42 KNHC 071600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EDT TUE 07 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-011
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARRIBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 08/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST
C. 08/1645Z
D. 17.5N 85.5W
E. 08/1830Z TO 09/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT TWO
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE
C. 09/0230Z
D. 18.0N 85.5W
E. 09/0400Z TO 09/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12 HOURLY FIXES.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.......NEGATIVE
BK
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:36 PM |
|
Model Output
|
I'm sure there is a page where ALL the model tracks are put together, but I can't remember where to find it. If anyone can help I would surely appreciate it!
Thanks!
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:43 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
There is/was a Navy site with the current investigations listed...but I can't seem to find it - anyone have it bookmarked?
Nevermind I found it - www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:48 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
This is only MHO, but when I look at that satellite loop posted, it appears that some of the energy near NW Florida is beginning to lift to the north, which would mean a more poleward pull on what *may* be our first (ugh) TD of the year. It looks like that dry air is being replaced with moister air in the GOM, and if you look at the bottom part of the loop, it appears that the low could possibly be pulled around what I would call (in a very scientific sense) a "loop-de-loop".
Again, my OHO which could be completely incorrect. I can predict this with almost 99.9% certainty: someone along the eastern GOM is gonna get soaked, named or no-named.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 08:54 PM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
I agree that this system (named or unnamed) will become a rain event for the Florida peninsula this weekend.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Quote:
Uhhhhhh, should I cancel my GOM off the Alabama coast fishing trip for this weekend ????
That's not a good question at this time. Wait and see if something even develops, and then wait until the system is within 48 hours or so of affecting you. That will be decision time in regards to your fishing trip.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:22 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Well i for my part think we will see something develop in this region during the next 24 to 36 hours. There has been persistent disturbed weather for days, the sea is warm, and the upper-level conditions should improve. Add to that the improving satellite signature of the system, which shows some organisation of the circulation off the northeast coast of Honduras, and i think the folks in the NW Caribbean should be closely watching it.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
is there some reason the NRL still has not put an invest up for teh NW Caribbean?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:27 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
its up
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
is it me, or does it look like the center has developed on the coastal border of Nicaragua and Honduras?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:45 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
indeed, visible imagery would seem to suggest the centre maybe forming just offshore of the Honduras / Nicaragua border...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 09:45 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Still gotta get the trough in the Gulf of Mexico to weaken or lift out some. What is happening is that it is digging southward into the Bay of Campeche, though it is narrowing in scope & extent east-west. Narrow troughs are better for intensification -- in fact, narrowing of a trough such that it matches the scale of the tropical cyclone is one of the big factors for rapid intensification of mature storms -- but this one is likely too close still to the system.
An upper-level low has formed over the Yucutan Peninsula over the past few hours. Another, weaker one is located between there and Tampa. What we'll probably need to see for development is for the trough to cut off and retrograde westward in the Gulf, allowing the ridge to build in. The narrowing of the trough is a sign this might be trying to happen. Wind shear in the region is stronger than it was 24hr ago, but weaker than 12hr ago. The core of strongest winds to the west is weaker than it has been in some time, though.
Give it time, and we might see something. Still at least a day and probably closer to 2 away, though. Recon going out there tomorrow is a good sign; the fact that the second one in the report is listed as "cyclone" doesn't mean a whole lot as of yet. It shows they anticipate that it might develop, but those naming classifiers don't mean a whole lot until something actually happens.
For more -- see the blog article on the front page. As I mentioned to Jason earlier, I'd give this one about a 60% shot at organizing into something. At the very least, it's something to watch...but not too closely! We'll have plenty of time to do that once it develops & with other storms later in the year.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 10:49 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
wouldn't want to see this mm5fsu 2005060700
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 10:57 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
clark, is this what your talking about as for winds (250mb Height ) and the ridge movements?
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 10:59 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
true, that would give us a hurricane crossing western Cuba friday into saturday, then approaching the central-eastern Gulf coast by the start of next weak! Interestingly that is the run from 00z, so if it holds true, we should see a definite low pressure system (TD?) br wednesday evening.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 11:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
NOTE: Mike...if this image will blow out your main page, i'll gladly post this as a link instead...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 11:41 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
MikeG -- that's our MM5, and by our, I mean my lab's MM5. I don't doubt it for a second, but the development there is still a bit of time ahead in the future. It's been persistent on this feature, though, so we'll see what comes of it. As a heads-up, starting tomorrow, we'll likely be doing 00z *and* 12z runs of the MM5, with output from the latter available late in the afternoon.
As for your other post - yes, that sort of thing is what I'm getting at. Look not just at one level, though, but at a series of levels and at the differences between those levels (the vertical wind shear). We don't have all of that output to the web for the MM5, but you can see it with the GFS, NOGAPS, or any other model.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 07 2005 11:55 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
yeah, looking at i am thinking al/ms landfall..if she gets going....last vis look pretty nice....but bouy data shows slow pressure drops nearby....so GFS seems to be the model right now?.....as far as SST's , there doesn't appear to be much hurricane heat potential HHC
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Attention all...Coop is far too modest, but he has put together a really super spaghetti model plot for 90L...he's running some of the new data as we speak...
check it out!
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:07 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Latest Danger Zone from NHC.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/danger_atl_latestBW.gif
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:13 AM |
|
|
Model Data
|
Excellent work Coop, but the only thing is Phil, your link returns a message saying "You do not have access to this download"
Does anyone have a link to site that produces graphical images for reconaissance flights like hurricanealley used to, before it went subscriber only, images that show the area and time of the invest.
Our little Invest 90L is now listed under the Special Features heading of the 8:05pm TWD.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Model Data
|
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/download.php?Number=36195
can you "access this"?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:27 AM |
| Attachment |
|
Re: Model Data
|
This is the 18Z model runs for our action down below... click above to download and when the new runs come out I'll try to get them up as well.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:31 AM |
|
|
Re: Model Data
|
That worked! Nice work!
It'll be interesting to see what the models come up with in the next 48 hours.
I can't believe we're talking about this already!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:33 AM |
|
|
Who would have thought?
|
That we would have a relatively good prospect for a tropical landfalling system this early into the season? As Clark pointed out, the trof appears to be narrowing and lifting out. This would allow for a ridge to form, conducive to better development conditions. With Supertyphoon Nestat (sp) recurving it would make sense for there to be some form of tropical activity in the atlantic basin.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:40 AM |
|
|
|
Model Runs
|
Phil...was that an earlier run than StormCoop's? It appears to me that the models have shifted a bit to the east on his than on the run you had posted. I was just curious as to what time each model plot was run.
I'll tell you something: I do NOT like June storms beginning with the letter "A" in the GOM. I have no luck with them whatsoever. Allison nearly killed me 2 years ago; the "A" storm in '94 nearly killed my parents on their way home from Jacksonville to Atlanta (they we're stuck in Valdosta for 2 days because I-75 was flooded in Macon). It seems that no matter where I am, these pesky "A" storms find me. Speaking of which, my Mom, sister and 2 neices are driving down Friday. Whatcha wanna bet? $100?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:44 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
MikeG - GFS isn't necessarily the model of choice -- in fact, it's one of the worst when it comes to devleopment/intensity -- but it's the most widely known and does a fair job with the midlatitude weather pattern.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:44 AM |
|
Re: Model Runs
|
The latest run has the 12Z runs removed so there are less of them, now only 18Z. Nothing shifted as of yet.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 12:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
Quote:
Phil...was that an earlier run than StormCoop's? It appears to me that the models have shifted a bit to the east on his than on the run you had posted.
pay no attention to the model run i posted...stick with storm cooper's models...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 01:05 AM |
|
Re: Model Runs
|
Hi All,
Do you have to login to downlaod? I'm having probs with my pwd and can't seem to get it to mail me a new one so I can't login.
i still get access denied on the models link.
Thanks!
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 01:08 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
if you are trying to access the link i posted earlier, NO ONE except mods & admin can access it...that was my fault...if you click on the "ATTACHMENT" storm cooper posted several posts back, you should be able to view it no problem
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 01:16 AM |
|
Re: Model Runs
|
got it thanks!
didnt see tha attachment
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 02:04 AM |
|
Re: Model Runs
|
where is skeetobite?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 02:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
based on satellite appearance, would i be correct in guessing that anything that develops would be lopsided to the east, like Allison in 1995 or Gordon in 2000?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 02:30 AM |
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
Okay, thanks guys. I'll check it again in the morning! Thanks to both for all your hard work getting us what we need! As they say, "Ask and thou shalt receive."
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 02:44 AM |
|
Re: Model Runs
|
Rabbit -- that would be a fair assumption to make, especially early in its lifecycle. All depends on how much that shear weakens, IMO, to see whether or not it becomes more symmetric...and whether or not it intensifies beyond a weak area of low pressure.
As an aside, there's nothing really new to note on the 10:30pm TWO. Two distinct masses of convection are present: one near the low itself over land, and another west of Jamaica. It's the former that bears watching, of course, but it'll take some consolidation of the whole feature before we get a lot going there (if we do at all). I'd feel better about this thing's short-term chances if it were a bit further east, but it is June after all...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
still a broad low, but there is definitely the look to this system... probably arlene in a day or two. i think that whatever develops starts in a NE drift, and turns nnw over time. got a hunch that most of the models have it developing too fast and moving a little faster than it will.. should only pick up speed later in the forecast period. right off the bat my thought is that it goes towards the florida panhandle. there is precedence for a severe hurricane originating in the area in early june (alma in 1966 for one), but typically systems forming down there stay under shear and don't make more than minimal hurricane if that. wasn't 1966 listed as an analog year for this one... hmm. ssts in the NE gulf won't support a strong hurricaner.. warmer near the central gulf but shear will likely be higher over there. also looks like the storm will be moving along, so not one of those loitering, extreme flood events.
interesting of note, globals also showing a suspicious feature somewhere in the northern caribbean or the atlantic to the north of there... 5 days out or so. there's a sharp TUTT feature setting up and then collapsing in the runs also... probably what will keep it in check. not a well-supported event, but around the weekend there may be something else worth watching.
HF 0418z08june
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:19 AM |
|
|
Re: Model Runs
|
I guess I was in the wrong forum.I thought no one was paying attention.Pressure is still dropping in both systems.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
is it just me, or is the models initializing the storm too far west???
and is that going to make a difference? (of course it'd make a difference, but how much?) (and of course according to the TWD it's initialized too far east.... ugh)
-Mark
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:29 AM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Don't feel bad. I am looking at a small difference in the locations. Models, TPC/NHC, and my eyes.
At this point in time it doesn't make a lot of difference. If it spins up, it will make a difference. I have a few inches of rain that need to be made up in the year-to-date rainfall, but that's All.
Tropical systems...Mother Nature's air conditioning?
| Mozart |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:41 AM |
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
For my first post of 2005, I'd just like to make a quick observation.
After the year that was 2004, for us to be actually watching a system with the potential to turn into one of those ________'s on June 7....really really really makes me dread the next 6 months.
And I'm 200 miles inland.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
On this board, we'll gladly watch any one of those _________'s at any time of the year.
Hopefully not too many of them cause problems though...
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Quote:
is it just me, or is the models initializing the storm too far west???
and is that going to make a difference? (of course it'd make a difference, but how much?) (and of course according to the TWD it's initialized too far east.... ugh)
-Mark
Actually, I think I'm seeing a NE drift with the carib. area of disturbed weather. Either that or the broad turning in the area is playing tricks on my eyes.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
This is very cool!!!There is really alot of stuff happening for this time of year .
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html WOW!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 05:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean -Eastward Drift?
|
Quote:
Actually, I think I'm seeing a NE drift with the carib. area of disturbed weather. Either that or the broad turning in the area is playing tricks on my eyes.
I don't think you're hallucinating at all... But what's causing the seeming drift? (if you look carefully at the visible caribbean loop, you can see the apparent low center around 15.5 N 85W or so) I'm not sure if the low center is moving east, but certainly the storms have had an eastward movement over the last 8 hours or so. Will it drag the low pressure east initially? or will the storms become decoupled from the low and new storms form around the center, and it moves north as the models predict....
-Mark
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:57 AM |
|
Re: 00Z Model Runs
|
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 11:30 AM |
|
Re:circukation maybe
|
Lookig at the floater this morning on the VIS looks like a rotation at least at 18'N85'w.Maybe my eyes are playing tricks not a full cup yet either.Last few frames more N.Have to wait and see what recon has going later.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
gotta scratch that looks like a little vortice that is racing N actually
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 01:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
Looking at the WV images this morning, it appears to me that there is a lot of dry air in the GOM. Anyone else see that? I wonder if that's supposed to change because I would think if dry air gets into that low it would kill any development. Also...I think I'm looking at the right area, but is the tropical low almost due south of the western tip of Cuba? If it is, it looks to me as if there is a little twisting motion to it. You can just see it starting on the last few loops. Or maybe it's been there the whole time and I wasn't looking at the right spot!
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 02:53 PM |
|
Re:circukation maybe
|
Well that is a confusing mess, but it is developing...the main circulation I think is supporting the newest build up of convection near 16/84 just north of the coast and that is all drifting North. There is another swirl about 17/87, but that is not it.
The cluster of storms around where I think it is gives this a very good core to start with. All the stuff North and east is being thrown off by this circulation.
If the llc is there we probably have a depression.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:11 PM |
|
Re:circukation maybe
|
Recon goes out after noon today; should be there a couple/few hours after that. Organization looks fairly good this morning, but it is a broad area of low pressure slightly elongated east-west north of Honduras. Focus in on that area moreso than the band of convection to the west of Jamaica, even though conditions may be slightly more favorable there than here. A slow drift to the system is likely over the next day or so, followed by movement northward towards the Gulf.
More to come on the blogs...
| andy1tom |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:12 PM |
|
|
Re: 00Z Model Runs
|
Coop,
Do you have a link for this?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:16 PM |
|
|
|
TD Forming
|
11:30 TWO
"SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FORMING BETWEEN HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY. EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE AFFECTING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS."
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 03:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
The system seems to be moving east- north east. Does anyone else see this? When should it turn north?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:12 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
The Florida Daily Weather Discussion #2005-26 has been published at
11:00 am EDT on Wednesday June 08, 2005 at http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm .
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:34 PM |
|
Re: TD Forming
|
Quote:
The system seems to be moving east- north east. Does anyone else see this? When should it turn north?
The system itself isn't moving NE...the blowoff and thunderstorms are...the core rotation is displaced well to the south and west very near the coast of Honduras...in fact in the last few sats you can see new convection firing in this area. The NE motion you see is the ventilation of the system by the jet to the north, not the motion of the circulation.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
Thank you. I see the firing-up of the circulation now off the Honduran coast. I just wondered if it too would move east before north. I guess time will tell.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
I think we may have Arlene by Friday.Maybe even Thursday evening.There is a spin starting.
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 04:55 PM |
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
Anyone along the Alabama Coast and points Eastward be on special guard.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 05:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
There is no reason to be alarmed yet.It is simple something to watch.Maybe a kick in the butt for people that have not gotten there supples.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 05:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD Forming
|
I understand that the water temperature is awfully warm; I do I believe we will get a storm out of this mix, See how it's starting to band around the circulation, and so close to the Honduran coastline?
Wow.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 05:26 PM |
|
Re: The Caribbean
|
No matter what this system does, Florida is going to get a lot more rain, and we certainly don't need it.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 05:36 PM |
|
Cayman Islands
|
Pressure dropping and the winds are picking up:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html
Link to Kingston Jamacia:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MKJP.html
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:29 PM |
|
|
|
Recon
|
Looks like it's coming from Louisiana, and it looks like it's got a little while before it arrives. So, we got a little bit of time to speculate before we get more information. It looks like the center is around 17N 84.5W and moving due north. Using good ole Mark I eyeball on the sat loops, if the circulation is closed... it is just barely closed. It's a real coin toss to say if recon will generate a vortex data message, But I'll go ahead and say yes they will. The storm is generating T numbers of 1.0/1.0 and there seems to be enough organization to give it the benefit of the doubt (particularly with the increasing convection near the center).
any other thoughts?
-Mark
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Recon
|
Thanks, Mark-
Your acute analysis fits in with what is certainly looking to be our first named storm of the season.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:37 PM |
|
Re: Recon
|
I'm curious about the impact of variable SST's on develpoment. I know that current area is in the area of 86 degrees but it will have to move over some cooler water (82 to 84) Can that create problems for development?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:45 PM |
|
cooler water
|
82-84 degree water as opposed to 86 may retard development a little, but it is certainly warm enough for any depression or tropical storm to strengthan
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Recon
|
I am not covinced that this going to end up in the gulf.Looks like it maybe moving enough east,so that when it does turn north, the keys and south Fl maybe under the gun.I hope I am wrong,we have had 10 straight days of rain,with very little sun.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 06:56 PM |
|
|
|
Recco Obs
|
[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #5] Time: 1848Z; Lat: 21.6°N; Long: 86.1°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 22999ft; Flt Winds: SW (210°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 3°F; Dewpoint: 3°F; Weather: Overcast Skies; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None
Recon in Yucatan Channel
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:06 PM |
|
the coming call
|
the circulation still looks very broad on visible, so I've got a hunch that even though recon will find a closed low, there's a chance there won't be an upgrade. surface winds in the area are probably 25-30kt though. it's a depression in my book, but the nhc makes those sorts of calls, not i. we'll have us an arlene tomorrow one way or another.
watching that low level swirl over near 24/55. it was blowing some decent convection overnight, but that decoupled this morning. it's near the center of an upper trough right now, and starting to deal with some significant subsidence. whether anything can develop over there is just a matter of matching the upstream diffluent region of the upper trough with some decent convergence along the surface trough... getting that to happen is always the trick. small potatoes right now compared to 90L/formative arlene.
HF 2003z08june
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:08 PM |
|
|
cat 5 back
|
after spending the fall and winter cleaning up Ivan, I am not terribly interested in another hurricane...however, it is what it is...
this will be a ho hummer...nuthing much happens till August, does it?...
what are the potentials with the sst's where they're at?...probably not much above a storm or weak cat 1...
hope to learn a lot..this site gets better every year...I still consider myself a NOVICE...and that's stretching it a bit...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:11 PM |
|
|
|
Circulation Moving ENE?
|
I also believe that the circulation is moving ENE. It spells for a wet weekend in Florida.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: cat 5 back
|
as time goes on, it is looking more and more that whatever develops will be similar to Gordon in 2000 (which it seems to be developing similarly to) in the sense that it will probably be lopsided with most of the weather to the east
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:22 PM |
|
Re: Recon
|
ftlaudbob -- it's really drifting right now, moreso than any definitive movement. A northward path is likely early on in its life, give or take a little either side of north. Once it gets into the Gulf & the ridge builds in (assuming it does), it should move more to the west. Depending on how close it gets to Florida & how strong it is, it could either enhance rainfall or create a very warm, dry day over land (due to subsidence outside the storm's envelope).
Another asked a question about variable SSTs: the lower SSTs reduces the amount of heat content for a storm and generally tends to limit the maximum end of the intensity, but it's moreso the depth of the warm water that is important as opposed to just warm SSTs. The SSTs are warm in the east Gulf, for instance, but the depth of that warmth is very shallow; the storm will churn the waters there and, coupled with rainfall cooling the atmosphere/waters as well, result in a very small amount of heat content available to even maintain intensity. In the central Gulf, however, SSTs are warmer, as are the sub-surface SSTs. A storm wouldn't have too much trouble there. The important depth is about 60m...a normal storm won't churn up a lot below there.
Satellite representation of the storm continues to get better with time; Dvorak numbers from SSD are 1.0, probably trending higher now, and recon will be there shortly to (hopefully) provide more data. Next QuikSCAT should be in the next 6hrs; not sure about the microwave satellite imagers. If current trends continue, we should have a depression sometime today or early tomorrow. Only time will tell from there.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:22 PM |
|
|
|
Ob 6
|
[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #6] Time: 1908Z; Lat: 20°N; Long: 85.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: In/Out of clouds; Flt Level: 22999ft; Flt Winds: VRB @ 6 mph; Temp: 5°F; Dewpoint: 5°F; Weather: Overcast Skies; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:48 PM |
|
TD One
|
FNMOC now list this as '01L.One' - first depression of the season. expect advisories at 2100z.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:52 PM |
|
Re: TD One / 18Z Model Runs
|
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 07:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One
|
Quote:
FNMOC now list this as '01L.One' - first depression of the season. expect advisories at 2100z.
Even though I think it's a depression, I'm a little suprised that they're going to go ahead and upgrade it. But... there might be something more that they know that we don't.
any thoughts on why they'd upgrade now?
-Mark
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One
|
Even in its infancy- it's swirling nicely in the western Caribbean heading due east until it decides to turn northward and then the screaming begins.
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:04 PM |
Re: TD One
|
Hey guys, Droop here. I was here most of last season until I got shut down by Ivan. Im finally back and looks like Im just in time.
Happy tracking.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:09 PM |
|
Re: TD One
|
RECON OBS 08
PRESSURE 1005
FL WINDS 35MPH?
I THINK FL WINDS HAVE PICKED UP FROM 30 TO 35, ON THE FIRST PASS....POSSIBLE VORTEX SOON
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:11 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One
|
TWC just gave a time when they thought the RECON plane would arrive - 4:00pm. They have a neat little graphic now that shows where the plane is and it's approximate arrival. I would guess that if they find anything out there it will be *official* at 5pm.
I see the swirl and it is looking quite nice; however, I don't see it moving toward the east at all. I see it moving more N or NE -- if it's even moving at all.
Not that it isn't moving east - just these eyes don't see it. These eyes aren't always right, either. Just my observation. I have a hard time seeing through the beginnings of storms.
Which is why I'm sitting here at home watching CourtTv instead of working at the NHC.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:12 PM |
|
Re: TD One
|
From the GOES vis sat loops the best I can determine the poorly defined center is near 17.3 and 83.7 with a slow north or nnw motion... perhaps just west of due north
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:13 PM |
|
Re: Model Software
|
For anyone interested the software I am using for the models it is StormTrakker 2005. The person who wrote the program, Mike Bryson has allowed me to use my copy to put up here until Mike C. & Skeet get the other maps up and running. Below are the links to Mike B's website and Hurricane Alley where you can obtain ST 2005... it is worth it
http://nexrad3.dynip.com/
http://www.hurricanealley.net/sftwr.htm
Mike B. has other weather software at his site also...all great stuff.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:14 PM |
|
Re: TD One
|
DISREGARD THE FL WINDS.....DECODED WRONG SECTION, WINDS WERE LESS THAN 10
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One
|
[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #9] Time: 2007Z; Lat: 17°N; Long: 84°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: VRB @ 6 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: VRB @ 6 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb
| Droop31 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:26 PM |
|
Re: TD One
|
Lowest pressure as of right now seems to be 1004mb. I for some reason dont believe this is a depression just yet. Vrb winds at 6 mph? I think the NHC wants more concrete evidence before they go upgrading to a depression. I could be wrong though. Looking better on sat. loops then it was yesterday though. We'll see.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One
|
Hey Droop---good to see ya back! I'm never surprised at something the NHC does/does not do. I learned a great lesson last year - they're usually right on. As much as WE like to be right, they usually make the right calls.
So we'll see what happens either at 5, 8 or 11. Or tomorrow.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:29 PM |
|
Re: TD One
|
They might've jumped the gun, in my opinion. There hasn't been an NHC conference call for anything at 5pm, which they would have if it were to be upgraded. It might come late (though not this late), but nothing as of yet. Makes sense, with no vortex message yet. It'll happen, maybe not yet though.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:31 PM |
|
|
|
Ob 10 & 11
|
[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #10] Time: 2021Z; Lat: 16.5°N; Long: 83.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: W (250°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 75°F; Dewpoint: 75°F; Weather: Scattered Skies; Sfc Winds: W (250°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb
Winds up , Wind from the West
Update: Main NRL page show 01 Noname
Ob 11
[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #11] Time: 2039Z; Lat: 17.5°N; Long: 83.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: E (110°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: E (110°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:47 PM |
|
|
01L.NONAME
|
the Nrl has is up as 01L.NONAME now. First FNMOC now NRL but no conf call. I guess we will se in a few minutes
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 01L.NONAME
|
just mentioned on TWC officially as TD1
| hurricane_run |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 01L.NONAME
|
they did and the NHC calls it TD1
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:54 PM |
|
|
|
TD One official
|
TD ONE at http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/
Max sustained winds 30mph
Movement N at 6
Pressure 1004mb
NHC now mailing out the advisory package, just got the forecast/advisory in the email
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 08:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One official
|
forecast to TS before the end of tomorrow
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One official
|
does this look like a bigger year than last one?.....there goes the insurance premiums....through the roof again....my boat insurance went up 30%...
| Kimberley Clark |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:07 PM |
|
Re: TD One official
|
Hey Rick on Boat!! Speaking of insurance, they would not renew ours. We still have tarps on our roof and, we finally got them in the right place where it won't leak when it rains. Looks to be another exciting hurricane season. I don't know where I got "into" weather so much, however, I was reading a journal I wrote to my first child 24 years ago and I was writing about the storm and the coordinates. Must be the experience of going through Frederick off of Mobile Bay. Keep your boat safe and Colleen I've always thought you were so witty. Aren't you in Vero Beach? Our youth group from church is leaving Friday to head to Vero Beach with World Changers to help with the hurricane victims of last year. I hope that they don't become hurricane victims while there!!
Kimberley
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD One official
|
Just watching our local Bay News 9 Tropical Update. I quote the met: "We've been watching an area of broad low pressure and the NHC can - at a moment's notice -- have a plane sent down there if they deem it necessary."
Should I send him a link to this board?
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 09:29 PM |
|
New Topic...
|
Clark has posted a new topic...move it over there! LOL
| stormchasersince1976 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Jun 08 2005 10:16 PM |
|
|
Re: New Topic...
|
Jason, can you tell me how far out into the GOM the ridge exist? The local Mets here in Clear lake Texas are showing the future track to be at the Miss. river Delta. Is this because it will following along the edges of the ridge?
| Southern4sure |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 09 2005 02:36 AM |
|
|
Re: New Topic...
|
It appears I moved away from Mobile, AL just in time!...only problem is now I live just north of Tampa
Does that make a hurricane chaser?Teresa