(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 12:58 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

not sure about anyone else, but all i "see" with mike's graphics is the dreaded "red x"....

interesting storm arlene she is (did that sound like yoda? sorry)

most of her convection totally concentrated in her northeast quadrant...obviously way too early to predict landfall and strength at landfall, but right now, looks like mobile might be wearing the bullseye...i guess we need to see how she does after interacting with comrade castro's little island and begins to interact with the gom's warm waters...she's a rainmaker fer sher, lets hope that's all...

welcome to cane season 2005...fasten your seatbelts

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 01:10 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Good morning all, Yoda (LOL) couple of ?'s from a novice. Is it the drier air dipping down to the west of the storm that is preventing it from wrapping around and closing off. Also, based on models I am looking at Lat/Long to see exact location, is there a site to just pop in the numbers and know the location? Thanks

Droop31

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 01:23 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Just a thought, but I dont think Cuba will affect Arlene to much. Just my opinion though.

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 01:33 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

Just a thought, but I dont think Cuba will affect Arlene to much. Just my opinion though.

droop...you're prolly right...even her "best" projected path takes her just west of coo-bah....but all her convection (at least as of now) will traverse the narrow part (remember how little affect that had on ivan), so i just want to see how she survives that trek...prolly little affect but for such a lopsided storm it may well play a role...

Cycloneye11

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 01:49 PM

New invest 91L in Atlantic

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

This is turning interesting with already Arlene and maybe Bret soon?

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:00 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Hey, Taz! Good to see ya back! I've been using this "Quick Plot" from the Sun-Sentinel for about 5 years. You can either put in the lon/lat yourself or it will track it for you. I liked to do it when I got the different coordinates from the NHC. You may have to download Shockwave to use it. Let me know if you need any help!
Colleen

Quick Plotting Map from Sun-Sentinel

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Liz, did the met say why he thought it would brush Ft. Myers? I assume he had a reason he would say that because they usually go exactly with the NHC guidance. Just curious. As usual!

I looked at the UKMET model on the maps and it has this storm initialized too much to the west, in my humble opinion. I think until it gets into the GOM and starts moving, we're not really gonna know what the impacts will/won't be on the State of Florida.
I saw that 91L invest...was that the one you were referring to, HF?
Hmmm. It's only June 9th.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Quote:

but all her convection (at least as of now) will traverse the narrow part (remember how little affect that had on ivan), so i just want to see how she survives that trek...prolly little affect but for such a lopsided storm it may well play a role...

I'd have to agree with the latter comment more. With a weak storm, such as this, I can see even a small land interaction having an effect. Ivan wasn't phased, but this storm is nothing like Ivan.

Droop31

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:13 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Ivans eye remained largely over water while a portion of the eyewall clipped extreme western Cuba. I ust dont see alittle strip of land affecting an already unorganized TS. Also, the fact she's supposed to pick up speed I think Cuba will just be a minor bump in the road.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:15 PM

StormHound

StormHound - you got my curiousity up last night: am I really in the Cone of Death? How do they figure that?
Phil -- not being off-topic or flippant, just curious as to why I would be in the Cone of Death.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Colleen, thanks, that is a good one, let me know if you come across one that by city/county breaks it down even further to determine right on an area of landfall. Are Thing 1 and 2 watchers also

)) My son is in Dothan visiting Grammy for the summer, keeping my eyes unusually close for so early in the game.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:22 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

I agree with you, Droop. I don't know that the actual "center" will go over the tip of Cuba...the convection might. However, even if it does, it's going over the narrowest and lowest part of the Island of Love and Humanity, so I really don't think it will tear it to pieces.
I do believe that this will be a major rain event for Florida. But I have a question: which scenario would be worse for Florida:
1. The center stays 200 miles off the coast of Florida, meaning we get all the effects of the eastern quadrant of the storm or
2. The center is closer to the coast (say, a brush with Ft. Myers) and the outer bands are mostly over the Atlantic Ocean.
Then again, there's
3. It stays closer to the coast, and as it pulls away, we get the rain bands.

I really don't see how Florida won't be affected by it one way or the other. You can already feel the tropical moisture in the air - it's heavier than usual.
Just some random thoughts flying through my head.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

I haven't found one that breaks it down that closely. I'd use Skeetobite's maps for that. No, Thing 1 & Thing 2 do not "watch". I say "tropical storm" and they automatically head to the closet. I've been doing that since Christmas.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:28 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Hey everyone. I like the new look of the site! Anyway, this isn't a very good situation for those of us up here that were hit by Ivan. A lot of people are still living in FEMA trailers and there are still many blue roofs. Not something you expect to happen in early June, but it does happen. Just seems strange to be in the path of a storm so early--especially after being hit by a storm of the magnitude of Ivan less than a year ago.

Any chance this hits minimal hurricane strength in the gulf like Allison of 1995?

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:31 PM

TS Arlene Looking Better on Visible

I just looked at the visibles, and it appears to me that Arlene seems to be getting her act together. It almost appears that it's trying wrap around the center, although all the convection appears to still be on the eastern side. Will be interesting to see what the 11:00am advisory gives us.

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:32 PM

MLB Discussion

From the 330am MLB Discussion

"TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO THE PENINSULA PROJECTED ON SAT MAY BRING OUTER RAINBAND CONVECTION."

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:35 PM

Re: StormHound

Quote:

Phil -- not being off-topic or flippant, just curious as to why I would be in the Cone of Death.

hey...i didn't make those maps...you got a beef, you take it up with the map master...

but...wouldn't you rather be in the "cone of death" for a TS than a CAT IV?

glad everyone's on top of things, but me thinks this is gonna be a nice rainmaker and a good "safe" kickoff to 2005

"fasten your seatbelts-2005" (new slogan??? beats TSFH thats fer sher)

tpratch

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:46 PM

Re: StormHound

11am is up.

raw stuff:
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 190 MILES... 305 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165
MILES... 270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH ...13 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR
OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN
AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK ARLENE THIS AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE....MAINLY TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...19.4 N... 84.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:48 PM

WATER VAPOR IMAGES

indicates a lot of dry air west, and it will be interesting to see if that situation changes. If the tropical storm stays lopsided, anyone on the west side will pretty much have a non-event. actually, even if it hits dead on.....but for those, say, 50 miles east and more..on the east side....that is where the rainmaker event of at least 15 inches in the worst cases will occur.

the only thing that can't be completely guaranteed...is if the storm begins to wrap around...and it doesn't appear likely, with all the dry air. Look for a beautiful day as the storm approaches you, since all the heat and humidity will be rushing toward it....

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:49 PM

Re: StormHound

Phil...I didn't mean the maps on HERE, I meant the maps that Orlando's Fox News gave out. That's why I am so curious!

And yes, I would rather be in the "Cone of Death" for a TS than a Cat IV. That's a given!

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:55 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Okay, advise please.

News Channel 8 (John Winter) out of Tampa Bay said this morning that there was a very good chance that our weather was going to be affected over the weekend by Arlene. Giving us a 60% chance of rain and said that it could go up.
What is the real possibility of that happening?

I am trying to plan my daughter's second birthday party for Saturday at 4 and one of the things I got her is for outside. I would really like to be able to set it up for the other kids to enjoy to but, if the weather is going to be nasty - I won't so that she doesn't get bummed by not being able to play on it.

Any ideas out there? I am just East of Tampa in Polk County. I am just curious if I should just leave it boxed up for another week and plan the BBQ for indoors.

Thanks!
Katie

P.S. Skeetobite or Mike C, I need your help, I may be contacting you in a little bit. Phil suggested I talk to you. Thanks!

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 02:55 PM

Re: New invest 91L in Atlantic

Want to make sure I am looking in the right place, you are referring to west of east of you?

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:12 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:17 PM

Re: Knocked Off

site crashed for a min I think

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:17 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

We will (are) be getting the outer bands from Arlene, so John Winter is correct. A lot of the mets are saying that they may have to "up" those rain chances before all is said and done. The thunderstorms are already beginning to pop and they are from Arlene, believe it or not. Sheesh.

As for your daughter's birthday party, I would watch the weather over the next day and see what they are telling you. If you have an 80-90% chance of rain, you may want to hold it indoors or you may want to put it off. But, as you know, living in Florida means we can get rain at any time. I'm in Polk county, too.
Don't know if that helped or not (probably not) but my best advice is to go with whatever your gut tells you. No matter what happens, things usually turn out fine.

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:18 PM

Re: Knocked Off

it took me forever to get the pages to come up and i have no maps just the x factor???

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:22 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Quote:

Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?

That was me modifying some things and forgetting to change a setting. It's fixed now.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:25 PM

Re: Knocked Off

i couldnt get in for a good 10 minutes.....on another note....the chances for tampa bay keeps going up ...first it was 5 now its 7 in less than a 24 hr period,,,any thoughts on that?....

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:27 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Quote:

Quote:

Was it just me or did anyone and everyone get kicked off or have blank pages?

That was me modifying some things and forgetting to change a setting. It's fixed now.

ok...when i got to work the maps were there...now i get the dreaded red x again

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:31 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Let me try this again, my response was basically the same as Colleen's. We are and have been feeling this already and unless an amazing shift happens, we will continue. Happy B-day to the little one, my son's is actually the 11th

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:33 PM

Re: Knocked Off

ok...when i got to work the maps were there...now i get the dreaded red x again

Maps are back up, good job!

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:36 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Does anyone think that we may be seeing center trying to get under the convection and more east shift in the forecast track ?

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:50 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Actually we are not getting rainbands from Arlene yet. Closest bands are near the keys. Currently the thunderstorms getting developing over central florida are from a deep Se flow off the Atlantic interacting with a trough of lower pressure over florida and the eastern gulf. So the flow may look like its from arlene all the way up to the panhandle/
With regards to the Fox guy in Ft Myers saying landfall might brush Ft Myers, I think he ment the steady heavy rainfall with amounts up to 5 inches. Most of the weather is to the E of the center. Arlene should slowly become better organized. If she does get under a large TS complex then she could intensify rapidly up to 65-70mph with a pressure down to 995mb during a 6-12 hour time frame. Currently she looks pretty much as I said yesterday. Alot of dry air to her W with deep tropical mositure to her east moving up thru florida. Landfall looks like the Panhandle of Florida from just east of Pensecola to Panama City if she gets stronger, but if she stays around 1000mb or higher then landfall could be more w near the Al-Miss border. Nevertheless most of the heavy rain and small spawned tornados will be near or east of the center up to 200 miles.

scottsvb

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:57 PM

91l

91l might have a chance... but the shear has to relax.... if anyone has any idea what level the shear will be over there, I'd be most interested in finding out Thanks a lot!
-Mark

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 03:59 PM

Re: 91l

hey bloodstar...where is this 91 at?...what area?

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:08 PM

Re: Knocked Off

I looked at the infrared sat and the center seems to be pulling North-NW. That should help keep Florida drier-or minimize the rainfall.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:11 PM

Re: 91l

26.9N 57.1W you can see it over at
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

-Mark

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:11 PM

Re: 91l

The 91I is E of PR

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:20 PM

Re: 91l

Quote:

hey bloodstar...where is this 91 at?...what area?

here is a link to 91L. Near as I can tell, it's roughly at 27N/56W or thereabouts...that's pretty far out in the atlantic...roughly the latitude of Palm Beach and about 500 miles east of the Antilles (but about 1,000 north)...

i suppose it bears watching, but right now Arlene is of present concern

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:22 PM

Re: 91l

thank you all so much

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:28 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Quote:

I looked at the infrared sat and the center seems to be pulling North-NW.

It also appears that the drier air may be beginning to move more west.

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:29 PM

Re: Knocked Off

11:00 o`clock models are still sticking together and are basicly in agreement. Busy tracking day here on CFHC. Being a newer member than some of you vets from last year. I can`t imagine whats going to happen when we have two or more storms brewing when it comes to this forum. Lot of great posters out there that really know what their talking about......Get the raincoats and umbrellas out Florida, its time for another rainer.......Great job all of you.....Weatherchef

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Knocked Off

Quote:

Does anyone think that we may be seeing center trying to get under the convection and more east shift in the forecast track ?

I was thinking the same thing when looking at the VIS and IR.... looks east (with perhaps a slight northern jog in the last frame or two), so much east that Cuba may have more of an effect that originally thought. However, it could just be the lack of great circulation...

By, east... I didn't mean due east, just more eastern.... that's all!

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:38 PM

arlene

don't know if anyone noticed, but dvorak's are now 2.0/2.0. here's a sat loop of arlene and here's a wv loop. hard to discern any eastward movement...all i can say is that grand cayman is getting drenched...i'll see if i can dig up some reports on conditions there

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:45 PM

Re: arlene

Let's hope Arlene stays away from the west coast of Florida. We do not need more rain here.

Right now the Fort Myers NBC affiliate is calling for rain all day Friday and Saturday with winds of 25 mph. The rain I expect, but what about the winds? Does this sound like an accurate forecast?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:47 PM

Link to Cayman Islands

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MWCR.html

Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 21 MPH (18 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 100%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)
ob MWCR 091500Z 14018KT 8000 -RA BKN012CB OVC070 25/25 Q1007 NOSIG

AdvAutoBob

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 04:57 PM

Re: arlene

Quote:

Let's hope Arlene stays away from the west coast of Florida. We do not need more rain here.

Right now the Fort Myers NBC affiliate is calling for rain all day Friday and Saturday with winds of 25 mph. The rain I expect, but what about the winds? Does this sound like an accurate forecast?

coming out of lurk mode for the season again.. Hi all

Of course this sounds like an accurate forecast..after all, I was planning for some quality time with my motorcycle this weekend and anybody who rides can tell you bikes are rain magnets

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:08 PM

Re: arlene

Quote:

Right now the Fort Myers NBC affiliate is calling for rain all day Friday and Saturday with winds of 25 mph. The rain I expect, but what about the winds? Does this sound like an accurate forecast?

It's very possible that the winds will get up to 25mph. Depends on how strong Arlene is when she enters the gulf, and how close she gets to Florida. There's a tightening pressure gradient between her and the high pressure out to the NE of Florida. This will be increasing the SE/E flow over the weekend.

And to those of you who want to see where 91L is, use Colleen's link to the Sun Sentinel page and put the coordinates in the quick plot.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:11 PM

Re: arlene

The visible is making it a little easier to see the center of Arlene; it appears that it's right where the NHC has it located. For a second, it did appear to be to the east of that location, but when you look at it long enough, you can see where the LLC is located. I still see a N movement, can't see any NW/NE movement yet.
Then again, it took me 20 minutes to see the center correctly.

Oh and by the way.......Polk County is getting drenched, it's thundering, lightning and windy here. It will rain, then the sun comes out, rain, the sun comes out...you know the drill.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:13 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Thanks everyone for the advise on Saturday.

Ed - happy early b-day to your son!

We are getting hammered here in Winter Haven right now. I mean, the sky is so odd looking for this time of day. It isn't like anything I have seen in a long time. Actually watching the dark clouds as they are building upwards and drawing closer.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:14 PM

New Blog Entry

Just posted a quick update in the blog area...you can get to it thru the forums, or on the main page.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:15 PM

Re: arlene

ROFLOL about the motorcycle comment...my hubby is going bezerk.

If this rain is just from the Atlantic, I am not looking forward to what Arlene will bring us. Ugh.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:21 PM

Re: arlene

Colleen - I agree, I don't want to know what is to come if we do get something from her. I feel like I need a boat instead of a truck to get around here lately. These pm storms are killing me!! Great sleeping weather but not at 6 in the evening!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:24 PM

Re: arlene

hey guys i know this may be a little off topic, but i am looking for a printable hurricane tracking map,,,anyone know where i can get one of those?...thanks becky

The weather here is actually partly cloudy...not too bad considering the rest of you are getting soaked...im sorry:(

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:25 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forecast

#28 Published Thursday June 09, 2005 at 1:00 pm EDT
As of 11:00 am EDT we officially have T.S. Arlene. She continues on a slow NNW movement towards the Yucatan Channel. She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. It appears that this mid level trough will weaken rather slowly, continuing the shearing environment for another 24-30 hours.
As I mentioned yesterday evening at best Arlene will reach weak category 1 hurricane strength, with strong T.S. strength the best bet. Landfall sometime on Saturday near Mobile Bay, AL per the NHC seems reasonable. However with a temporary weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida a land fall near Pensacola, FL is also possible.
Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:30 PM

Re: arlene

Hi all, welcome back.

Just a thought that worries me a little.

I keep hearing the Orlando news say there is no chance of Arlene coming close to us here. While the most likely place that it will go will be Mobile, aren't the models baseing that on the high pressure moving closer to Florida, which hasn't happened yet and might not? While indicators show it staying off Florida, if that high doesn't move, I believe it could follow the tropical moisture that has been nailing Florida for a couple weeks now.

I'm not saying it's going to do that, just a thought. Anyone have any thoughts or corrections, please post.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:42 PM

Re: arlene

Sure...it might move towards Orlando...but the data that we have in no way support that solution. Pretty much everything we see tells us the same story, and that story is meteorologically sound to human eyes as well. What you are talking about could happen, sure....but it is so remote from the observed data that it doesn't merit mentioning at this point.

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:47 PM

Re: arlene

I think you can get a printable map on www.noaa.gov. Look or a direct link www.nhc.noaa.gov

I think I saw one there the other day. Hope that helps!

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:49 PM

Re: arlene

That makes a lot of sense and it is exactly why we are lucky to have you. Thank you.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:51 PM

Re: arlene

Everyone is worried Arlene is going to hit there town. At the present time if Arlene would hit lets say New Orleans it would be a partly sunny day and breezy. All the convection and flooding rain is east of her right now and with the shear I don't think it will wrap around the west right away or maybe not at all. So right now anyone east of the center as it moves north will get all the weather.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:55 PM

Re: arlene

thank you very much colleen....

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:58 PM

Re: arlene

Remember that all the rain is to the northeast side of the center so you will still get some weather from it even if it goes to mobile. Jason does this look like a tornado maker?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 05:59 PM

Re: arlene

Quote:

The visible is making it a little easier to see the center of Arlene; it appears that it's right where the NHC has it located.

You're right.... these last couple frames, since I left work make things so much clearer. I think my main confusion was actually locating the LLC (again).... This is why I like stronger storms... they're easy to visualize!

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:04 PM

Re: arlene

I just did a Google (my favorite) there are many sites http://www.almanac.com/weathercenter/weathercenter.graphics/atlantic_11x17.pdf

Thanks for the early BD wish for my son K

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:12 PM

Re: arlene

Quote:

Colleen - I agree, I don't want to know what is to come if we do get something from her. I feel like I need a boat instead of a truck to get around here lately. These pm storms are killing me!! Great sleeping weather but not at 6 in the evening!

Katie you can use my Jetski this weekened if you need to. Then again I might need it to get around Mobile .

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:17 PM

Re: arlene

(good one rollie)

i am home right now, so i popped on TWC and unfortunately, it looks like arlene is going to make saturday and possibly all of sunday too a washout for florida...sorry katie...but at this point i would either postpone maddie's partay or plan on holding it indoors...

~Floydbuster

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:18 PM

Re: arlene

Tonight, starting at 7pm Eastern, Radio NHCWX will have live coverage of Tropical Storm Arlene. To listen in, click here: http://66.98.251.190:9032/listen.pls

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:18 PM

hunch

early Saturday the shear conditions around Arlene should have improved a good bit, and it will be on the less pressing flank of the upper trough/subsidence (the trough should weaken some as well). i've noticed that the ssts in the north central gulf have warmed a couple of degrees in the last couple of days... probably shallow warmth, but at 82-83 offshore near the expected impact point, i'm starting to think that arlene might throw together a nice little intensification burst before hitting land. decent chance it's a minimal hurricane at impact late saturday.
as for 91L.. it's actually moving into a low shear zone, with potential outflow evacuation mechanisms nearby. the ssts up where it is are very marginal though.. upper 70s to 80. it'll really have to fight to do anything.
more than one global is on to future development near the central and eastern caribbean and northward early next week. if anything does the upper ridge will have weakened significantly and it would most likely move north and east.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:27 PM

Center reforming?

Sat pixs show perhaps two centers, one at what I think will ultimately be the main center around 20.00 and 83.7, and another little vortex around 19.5 and 84.9... which I think at one time might have been the overall center of the storm... this little vortex will probably be dissolved in the storm as the center at 20.00 and 83.7 tries to take control. ... regardless its not looking all that impressive at the moment.... Arlene might be struggling with a split personality at the moment which can hinder development

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:31 PM

Re: arlene

It's not a matter of being worried it will hit Orlando. My comment was more to the people who are saying it won't affect Orlando. Checking the great wind probability chart from the NHC, Orlando has a 5 % chance of TS winds between now and Sunday. I felt that it was irresponsible to say no chance of it hitting here.
Jason clarified why they wouldn't discuss the chances of severe impact on Orlando.

If you haven't looked at the wind probability chart, that was a great addition to the NHC's tropical storm package. Living inland, we were without a lot of information that the coast had. This gives inlanders an opportunity to know what their impacts may be in any storm. Kudos to them.

As long as I can still fish Mosquito Lagoon this weekend, I'm happy.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:37 PM

Re: arlene

well we got some pretty nasty stuff here in the riverview area....strong winds and heavy rains...is this part of the squalls?...just curious....

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:37 PM

Re: hunch

Does anyone else feel like Saturday is a little early for landfall ? I just don't see this storm moving that fast. I think that Sunday around 9am would be the more likely time for landfall

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:56 PM

Re: Center reforming?

great observation. now center will be near more convection.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Center reforming?

Is it me multi tasking at work or does 91L have circulation?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 06:58 PM

Re: hunch

HCW - thanks for the offer of the jet ski...boy it has been a while since I have gone out on one of those! YIPPEE....ah, the good ol' days.

I agree with your hunch though....I was thinking the same thing. It just seems to be lingering around down there and I was wondering how it was going to make landfall that soon. But, what do I know?

Phil, already setting up plans for the indoors. The porch is screened in and big enough that I think I can still put her bouncie toy up and still have all the balls too. I think I want to play with it more than she will! I will send you some pictures so you will see how much fun I had!!!

Katie

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:00 PM

Re: Center reforming?

Latest GFDL.... runs the storm thru Hancock county MS at 75K at 950 mb .......... GFDL always seems to have intensity problems.... models just piss me off...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:02 PM

Re: Center reforming?

thats what it looked like to me but it may a upper level low.
but then they wouldn't have put an invest on it.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:05 PM

Re: Center reforming?

it did the same thing with Adrian. somtime it does make me mad.

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:06 PM

Re: Center reforming?

Quote:

Latest GFDL.... runs the storm thru Hancock county MS at 75K at 950 mb .......... GFDL always seems to have intensity problems.... models just piss me off...

Yeah, they are just made to irritate, amuse, be disagreed with, agreed with, can reduce boredom, increase apprehension, incite, inform, confuse, titilate and placate people. They do a good job too!

Richard

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:07 PM

Re: 91Invest

Take a look at the latest sat for 91l. I may be crazy but looks like a classic tropical development to me. Just looking at pics of course.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:07 PM

Re: hunch

Friday, Saturday, Sunday and some of Monday.....more rain in the Sunshine State.
The dreaded and evil "feeder bands" will be delivering their soggy, soaking showers all weekend long. If we are lucky.....the front in the midwest will not force a northeasterly course and deliver yet another storm to sunny Central Florida. Should remain a low grade storm with more of a rain effect, than winds and surges.
Does anyone realize how short Jim Cantore is?? This "weather stud" stands no more than 5' 3".....if that. Not that that is bad.....just funny to realize, now...the odd angles they shoot in order to make him appear as tall as others on TWC....Weather Rules!!!

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:12 PM

91l circulation

Quote:

Is it me multi tasking at work or does 91L have circulation?

The biggest problem with 91l is the shear that's on top of it... the waters aren't very warm either, 26 - 27 degress centigrade. The TWD at the NHC mentions it in the atlantic "A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 27N57W." it's very weak, but it does exist (though it looks like it's falling apart on the sat loop) and it's drifting... west?
-Mark

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:18 PM

Re: 91l circulation

In my opinion....it doesn't matter how tall Jim is, I will always stalk him....j/k. He is a doll. I believe he may have been my first crush. Hurricane Andrew rings a bell with that one.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:26 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Quote:

"A SURFACE 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 27N57W."
-Mark

1015 mb is not really low pressure... right? Isn't standard atmospheric pressure 760 mm Hg, which equals ~1015 mb?

kilowatt

(Registered User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:31 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Western Caribbean

Woohoo the first storm of the season...how exciting. *sigh*

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:36 PM

Re: hunch

Ok....am located in Melbourne, Fl. and a band is moving thru from the Storm......Winds increased suddenly to about 10-15 mph....HEAVY rains....will be moving thru soon but more is on the way!!! Cloud formation and movement is similar to Charley.....although of course, nowhere near a severe.

My family took a donated truck, with donated supplies, and handed them out to people in need in Port Charlotte on Easy st. My grandparents had lived there awhile, and I felt compelled to do something...it was a WAR ZONE....complete with soldiers and M-16's...the most important thing I can think of is this....STAY OFF THE ROADS!!!! So many gawkers were out resulting in HUGE backups of traffic.....supplies and help stranded for hours on roadways because people wanted to make there town was still there. It wasn't and your curiosity jeopardized much...Stay home unless necessary to leave.....I understand that in the mind of Joe Public....that storm should have come nowhere near where it did...thanks "models".....but still...if a storm is anywhere nearby, get ready.....it is Thursday and I am ready for this one already.....anyways...it was good to get there and help....but we realized we needed to get out of the way so we did returning home. Then we rode out Frances and Jean and I felt the concrete beneath my feet SHAKE!!! And the same human need to see things caused more traffic and snarls on the roadways that should have been kept clear for emergency help!

Blah blah, not meaning to drone about things......There were so many good things that came from those storms....seeing people help each other.....that it becomes easy to forget the 1000+++ DEAD in Haiti from the same storm that battered our 3/4 of a million dollar condo vacation homes on the beach......did Miami get enough hurricane aid I wonder???
I'd like to add that I was trying to phone in reports to channel 13 orlando until my power went out....their daytoday coverage is weak in my opinon....but Stormtrackers Rule....it was good to have my info passed on to anyone who may have needed it.

My water is stored, pantry stocked, cards being played......bring it on!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:43 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Yea...Jim is still a Stud....I was just VERY surprised!!

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:48 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Jim is okay but will never be as good as Jill Brown ,Christina Abernathy, Stephanie Abrams. Jen Carfagno

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:48 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Terra -- standard surface pressure is about 1012mb or so, but low pressure is always defined in a relative sense, e.g. it is lower than what surrounds it. There was a dying tropical cyclone a few years back in the central Atlantic with minimum pressure of around 1020mb...not impressive, but the surface pressures all around it were abnormally high. The same storm, as it developed, neared hurricane intensity (if I recall correctly) at around 1000mb.

kilowatt

(Registered User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:53 PM

Re: hunch

Yeah...watching the weather channel now and watching the bands move across Florida. It's crazy that this season is starting so early...I'm not so sure that northern Florida is gonna be so lucky this year.....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:56 PM

Re: hunch

yea im thinking florida doesnt have much of a chance at all this season...and i keep getting told that tampa is due for a good one...well im not looking forward to it and im sure hoping that arlene doesnt even think about tryin to come for us....everyone be safe and prepared....

Liz

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 07:57 PM

Re: hunch

Here in Daytona we have a steady wind out of the south at 12 mph with gusts at 26. No rain yet, just very cloudy

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:00 PM

Re: hunch

am not "educated" in weather.....have been watching TWC religiously since its conception....RELIGIOUSLY!!!

The lack of outflow on the northwest quadrant should indicate the storm is interacting with the remnants of the low from the midwestern states. The front which brought the tornadoes to Michigan.....RAMSDIS is showing this very well....What an AWESOME satellite site! Thanks to those responsible for that!!

Wouldn't this mean the storm will be taking a northerly course for roughly another 12 hour period before it makes a yet unforecasted turn to the northeast....targeting the people of Florida yet again!!! Of course....lets not tell anyone till the last minute....every last plane that lands at OIA is another dollar in our greedy tourism driven oh blahblahblah.....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:01 PM

Yahoo

yahoo.com says gulf to be hit by ts by friday.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:03 PM

Re: 91l circulation

True... 1012ish, I knew that... I guess I forgot the conversion factor! It's easier to calculate.... P=NkT (the atmospheric ideal gas law... I much prefer PV=nRT, but that's ok...) P=2.46e25*1.381e-23*298 gives a P=101.23 kPa, which is 1012.3 mB. Silly me for trying to remember a silly conversion factor rather than do the calculation!

Pretty sad that I know the number density at atmospheric pressure better than I know the conversion factor... I know... but, I guess after a million scale height calculations in grad school, something had to stick with me!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:05 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Wow.....You are Smart!!!

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:06 PM

Re: Center reforming?

Center is either re-forming or she is kind of falling apart. The western center that was exposed earlier does not look as defined now. I can't even pick it out anymore. No offense to those in LA and MS, but I sure hope you guys get this one. My beaches haven't recovered from Ivan yet.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:09 PM

Re: Center reforming?

I agree, I don't think you can find a really defined center no matter how hard you look at this thing on the vis sat loop... not doing all that great at the moment... guess we'll see what she does if she makes it into the S GOM....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:09 PM

Re: hunch

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...TROPICAL STORM ARLENE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 245 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005
... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS...

... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY WEST TO OCEAN REEF...

... NEW INFORMATION SINCE LAST ISSUANCE... UPDATED STORM INFORMATION. UPDATED PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS. INCLUDED TORNADO IMPACTS.

... AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT IS SPECIFIC TO THE FLORIDA KEYS OF MONROE COUNTY... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

... WATCHES AND WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

... STORM INFORMATION... AT 200 PM EDT... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST. ARLENE IS A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER... SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT NEAR 8 MPH... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB... OR 29.59 INCHES OF MERCURY.

... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK WILL CLOSE CAMPGROUNDS TODAY... AND RE-OPEN AFTER STORM PASSAGE. HOWEVER... THE NATIONAL PARK IS NOT CLOSED TO VISITORS. MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL STORM... BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT PLAN TO ACTIVATE THE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS CENTER.

... MARINE IMPACTS... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TODAY. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS WEST OF KEY WEST BEYOND THE REEF ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FEET BY LATE THIS EVENING. SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING... WITH SEAS IN THE GULF WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS BUILDING TO 7 FEET. MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARINE FORECASTS FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

... WIND IMPACTS... EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 34 KNOTS BY LATE THIS EVENING... EARLY FRIDAY MORNING... ARE EXPECTED IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE DRY TORTUGAS WESTWARD... INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS. ELSEWHERE... INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL WATERS... SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

... TORNADO IMPACTS... THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

... STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE OR TIDE IMPACTS EXPECTED IN THE FLORIDA KEYS OR DRY TORTUGAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.
From weather.com
... NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE FOR TROPICAL STROM ARLENE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 530 PM EDT.

...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:11 PM

Re: Center reforming?

yep i guess we will see. if the center is reforming under some convection that might be able to help it stregthen later.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:12 PM

Re: hunch

Severe Weather Alert from the National Weather Service

...MONROE LOWER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE UPPER KEYS- 150 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005
... HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS IMPACTING THE FLORIDA KEYS...

HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS... ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 MPH... WILL BE AFFECTING THE KEYS ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS CROSSING BRIDGES ALONG THE OVERSEAS HIGHWAY... AS WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ALONG THE ELEVATED EXPOSED BRIDGE SPANS. HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE MILE... AS WELL AS PRODUCE MINOR STREET FLOODING. STRONG WINDS COULD CAUSE MINOR SALT WATER OVERWASH ALONG ROADWAYS WITH AN ATLANTIC EXPOSURE... SUCH AS SOUTH ROOSEVELT BOULEVARD IN KEY WEST... OR THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT.

MONITOR THE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN KEY WEST FOR FURTHER UPDATES OR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:16 PM

Re: hunch

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/bu...mated&day=1

link to the 2100 mile radar out of Key West.....does not look good to me.....seems to be effecting showers over much of Southeastern U.S. already! Thoughts??

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:18 PM

Re: hunch

adogg76 -- the safety of the people comes first. If there were reason to close any airports or make any evacuations at this point in time, rest assured that they would be done. Precautions were taken before every storm last year in the areas where the storms hit...and where they didn't hit. If people wish to not heed them, that is another question entirely.

The center either appears to be dissipating or reforming near the Isle of Youth. It's tough to tell, however, with the cloud mass obscuring the latter feature on visible imagery. At the very least, however, the mid-level center is likely found near the Isle of Youth, per the fairly impressive IR imagery signature, and the currently tracked low-level center is looking rather unimpressive at this time. Recon is currently on its way out there, so we should know more over the next few hours.

Any reformation of the center this far to the east will likely result in some changes to the projected track (not to mention the intensity). Such a possibility was discussed last night, but even this big of a jump would be beyond what I expected, making a track change likely inevitable. New Orleans appears to be on the extreme west end of where the center may go; anywhere east to the Suwanee River in FL is still under the gun as well. Don't see any large reason to disagree with the NHC's track & intensity, but a supposed shift east would require a shift to the east in the track and perhaps a slight nudge upward in intensity.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:19 PM

Re: hunch

True or False.....

Feeder bands produce the most dangerous threat of tornadoes during a storm.

Feeder bands moving in on radar for the state of Florida.

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:23 PM

Re: hunch

I just watched the 4:00pm update on TWC...Jim Cantore will be somewhere in northern Florida, someone's coming to Naples. Why?
And the t-storms that we had before were CLASSIC feeder bands, just as I thought they were and TWC just that. BayNews9 saying that it will be breezy and rainy over the weekend. Yuck...80% chance of rain tomorrow.
And oh my are about to get hammered again. Are you getting bad storms over there, Katie?

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:24 PM

Re: hunch

Quote:

Here in Daytona we have a steady wind out of the south at 12 mph with gusts at 26. No rain yet, just very cloudy

And very humid.

On the MLB radar though it looks like we'll be getting some rain shortly.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:25 PM

Re: hunch

Safety is of course foremost.....

But when our TV Weather people tell us cattle that a storm will be heading for the GOM as opposed to Florida.....everyone breathes an OK..yet we will clearly be affect by this event in the coming days.....even NOW as we speak!

We won't all run for the hills if we are told to be ready.....of course, we won't operate gas burning generators in our homes either??

No offense intended to those affected.

I just want to know if I can go to the beach Saturday........or will it be gone.....again!

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:25 PM

Re: hunch

Clark. I don't see the center reforming that far east. It looks more like it formed farther north and maybe a little east, but still not under the thunderstorm complex. Looks to be just on the western side.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:27 PM

Re: hunch

VERY HUMID!!!!!

look outside....you are in TS ARLENE!!

No biggie...lotsa rain tho!!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:29 PM

Re: 91l circulation

Andrew was 1015 at one point...with 45 mph winds.

MM

jth

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:29 PM

Re: hunch

All that said, the bouy data suggest that the center is still south of 20 N. I can't get a handle on the center, but based on the winds and pressure at the bouy in the NW Carrib, it is still south of 20 moving N.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:30 PM

Re: hunch

adogg -- instead of posting the entire statement, could you post a link to it instead and maybe briefly state what you're looking at there? With the front page of the website, many of these statements are already available to everyone here right at the top of the page -- all that it takes to read them is one click. Thanks!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:32 PM

Re: hunch

URNT12 KNHC 092024
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/20:12:10Z
B. 20 deg 09 min N
084 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 310 deg 054 nm
F. 051 deg 032 kt
G. 313 deg 109 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C/ 464 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 1
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:36:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
PRELIMINARY

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:32 PM

Re: hunch

jth - I agree. I probably should've been more explicit with my locations; my mistake. However, it's really tough to tell without better visible satellite imagery & actual recon data. This could also be a case like several storms in the past approaching the Windwards -- the low-level circulation dissipates, despite a well-defined mid-level circulation, and the overall system weakens from here on out. Given little in the way of substantial evidence either way, we'll likely see status quo at 5p from the NHC.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:34 PM

Re: hunch

My bet is.....

Should probably have more than a flood watch in place for Miami. They will be doused in about an hour, as the last of the daytime heating takes effect and produces large bands coming in from the SE......

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:35 PM

Re: hunch

I don't think we will know for sure whether or not the center has reformed to the east until we get some recon information. Like Clark said, it's a possibility and these storms are fickle -- especially poorly organized ones like Arlene -- and it is very possible to see a new center reform. That, of course, would not bode well for Florida. However, I don't think Florida's going to miss out on any of the rain. And don't forget...there is room for error in that cone..and it could be to the right, so the NHC is still on track. I wonder if we'll see any shift to the right at 5pm. Prolly not.

Ok..I got the actual area where Jim Cantore will be: PENSACOLA. Janeen Albert will be in Marco Island, Florida.

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

I am looking at the sat. pict. it is called scat? well anyways i think the the center will reform as a smaller LLC just south of 20n center of 84w. This is a wind diagram from navy. Any thoughts on this and I do think if the center does reform we may actually see a brief if any hurricane?

seeing my weekend trashed, lol
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...F_NAME=al012005

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:43 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

Track just shifted back to the west a few mile as of the 5pm update

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:48 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

URNT12 KNHC 092024 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/20:12:10Z
B. 20 deg 09 min N
084 deg 04 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 25 kt
E. 310 deg 054 nm
F. 051 deg 032 kt
G. 313 deg 109 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 22 C/ 464 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 04 CCA
MAX FL WIND 32 KT NW QUAD 19:36:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

heres cuba radars, having a time to get them to work.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:49 PM

new track

yes they (NHC) did HCW (rolltide), and now the NHC has a landfall just west of mobile roundabout 4:00 pm on Saturday afternoon. they still keep it as a TS...based on what jason said earlier it seems as though it will not attain cane strength (and i hope it does not) but i still wouldn't discount that possibility...maybe not at landfall, and maybe not at all...but i wouldn't let my guard down, especially if i lived on a boat in mobile bay

jason: b or g?

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:51 PM

Re: Center reforming?

Hey, buddy! They let you out on good behavior! Yeah!

Do you remember last year when I had all those problems with the *frogs* leaping all over my back porch pretty much paralyzing me in fear? Well, they're baaccccckkk. Snakes, too. I just went out on the porch to check my rain meter (1") and there were two little garter snakes (at least I hope that's what they were) slithering around in the pool area. I picked them up and threw them out the porch door! The creatures are searching for high ground, I suppose.
I noticed the GFDL was initializing way too west with Arlene on the model maps, but I don't know how much confidence they have in that model with this storm. By the time I'm done writing this, the 5pm will be out and we'll all know whether or not the center has reformed or the track has shifted. Although I'm going to bet that it won't be shifted much, if at all.
Also, I didn't know this...but the hurricane hunters are also checking out 91L. Hm. Could we have TS Alrene AND TD#2 at 5pm?

Also...almost the entire southern half of Florida is under a flood watch.

AgentB

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:51 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

So according to that vortex message the max observed surface wind was 28.75mph(25kt)?

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:55 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

20.2 84.2 at 5PM. Track shifted back to the west some.......sitting off of the Mouth of the Mississippi on Saturday morning.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 08:57 PM

Re: new track

my boat on Mobile Bay, is actually inland a bit. At Dog River, and well protected...not exactly right there on the water front. However, the storm surge will be a problemo. The winds will be no big whoop...unless it gets to 100 or so..even then ....hafta take a direct hit, and the thing would have to strengthen. wonder what the storm surge would be...and if it came in at high tide...etc...
probably a non event...unless it strengthens to a 2...other than that...just a lotta fun, waiting for the cat 4-5, that will hit New Orleans this year...imho....

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:00 PM

Re: Development of new center ?????

Max winds are still at 40mph. I knew if I said it would shift to the right it would actually shift back to left. I am not as concerned with the actual landfall - after all, it's a poorly organized tropical storm and if were to hit Florida, it would be probably a minimum TS. What I am more concerned about is the rain associated with it. Because I think we're going to get a lot of it.

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:02 PM

Re: new track

Quote:

waiting for the cat 4-5, that will hit New Orleans this year...imho....

That would be a disaster. Are you wishing this to happen...sorry but that what it sounds like.

Teresa

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:03 PM

Re: Center reforming?

My behavior is consistent.... bad...

Colleen, check the diameter of the frog legs, who knows, if they're big enough you can fry up a batch..... then freeze em and they'll make great survival food for that late season big Cat 4 that's probably going to take half of Florida with it ....

GFDL just kills me sometimes creating intensity levels that never come to fruition.... but every now and then it lucks up and gets one right relative to projection.... I think the NHC is influenced way to much by it....

anyone catch that hot pink shirt Jim C. had on last night, and boy, was he ever fired up about this storm...

WeatherNLU

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:04 PM

Re: new track

Rick, please man I live in New Orleans. Could you not wish 25 feet of water on me?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:14 PM

Re: new track

Yeah, Rick was sweating bullets last year with Ivan threatening to wipe out the southern half of Alabama.... for a while we didn't know what happened to good ole Cat 5 Rick after Ivan.... Seems he's wised up now, sending them Cat 5's elsewhere... hehe

Ricks da man....

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:15 PM

Re: new track

sorry about the remark about New Orleans...didn't mean to imply i was wishcasting. However, since I made the remark...I will say this...New Orleans is below sea level, and at the current time, they DO NOT have the pumps and engineering in place to deal with a 4-5 direct hit. they have dodged bullets since hurricane Frederic hit Mobile in 79....and even before that....

it seems like it will be a busy year, doesn't it?....anyone wanna discount the fact that they say we are in a period of intesified activity...plus with global warming...what are we to expect?.....

this site will do much to alleviate unnecessary fears...and when the big one comes, if it does...to do what is necessary to protect life and limb.

You can't predict them accurately...up until late in the evening...when Ivan hit us...we all thought we would wake up with destruction..and yet...at the last minute....Ivan jogged to Pensacola...and we were spared. Had it stayed the course...my boat would've been demolished...so the lights could actually go out...and then...the thing could make a last minute jog...and hammer 50 miles this way or that...and it makes a BIG difference....

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:18 PM

Re: new track

Well i have been calling for a Mobile, AL, landfall or just to the east since this thing developed, and i dont plan on changing that yet

Visible imagery would seem to suggest multiple low-level centres with Arlene, making it difficult to track for sure. Interesting that she hasnt sped up yet, and is still trundling north at 8 mph. With this slower motion, and the expected improvement in upper-level conditions by late Friday, we could see some significant strengthening prior to a gulf coast landfall - providing she can maintain at least some organisation til after her passage over Cuba.

Beaujolais

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:20 PM

Re: new track

Yeah Rick, I live in Kenner which is 10 minutes away from New Orleans!! I don't want this place I live decimated!! I hope and pray and wish the best for everyone this year. Oh and I am not worried about Arlene in the least!!

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:25 PM

Re: new track

damn this thing called work sometimes makes it hard for me to keep up with the posts...but Frank P. (out on his 6 month sabbatical from the WPP) pretty much summed up CAT V Rick awright...to anyone out there who does not know some of the long timers on this board, up until Ivan, Rick saw every cloud over the GOM as a potential CAT V headed straight for Mobile...it was kinda the boards own inside joke...then Ivan came and it wasn't quite so funny anymore...so that's that.

as far as New Orleans...I believe a strong CAT III (or higher) would basically DESTROY that city, something residents have realized since 1979...despite the city planners best efforts, NO is basically a bowl shaped piece of land and much of it is below sea level...a 25+" rain event coupled with storm surge would cripple the city, as the pumps would be overwhelmed....basically, New Orleans could be considered America's most vulnerable city...not necessarily from a probability standpoint, but from it's ability to withstand a major cane...

let us all hope and pray that day never comes, because if it does...it will certainly be our costliest (if not deadliest) hurricane ever

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:28 PM

Re: new track

Amen, Phil Amen.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 09:50 PM

Re: new track

"Rick saw every cloud over the GOM as a potential CAT V headed straight for Mobile...it was kinda the boards own inside joke...then Ivan came and it wasn't quite so funny anymore...so that's that."

only people like you made others posts and opinions an inside joke. Many were not offended at what I typed, however, for some reason, it bothers you when novices like myself make a prediction...and it comes true. As to the assertion that I predicted a cat 5 for every cloud in the GOM...it is simply a way for you to poo poo anything I do type...and for that, I wonder what your problem is....sure, I said that quite a bit...but most readers accurately realized there was humor involved...

for some reason, you were bothered by it...
your moderation has become somewhat of a big brother issue...and you ain't my big brother...so if you prefer to type that I am a joke in some eyes...see if you're big enough to post this....

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:03 PM

whoa there rick

dude,

i'm sorry, very sorry if my post offended you...i thought after all we (the cfhc family) went thru last year we were cool...i certainly wasn't making light of you at all....

i was trying (albeit poorly obviouisly) to give some of the newbies some insight as to some of the longtimers thoughts, trends, etc...remember matthew, paloma and dynagel???

dude...please don't take offense at what i said...the last thing this board needs now is any infighting...if i wanted that, i'd post on many of the other weather boards that exist (and suck)

peace bro!

cheers...

LI Phil

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:06 PM

Something to watch...

It appears to me that in the last few hours the outflow to the NW is beginning to improve somewhat. With the weakned center and possible reformation it is tough to tell, but we might be seeing some relaxation of the shear beginning...we will have to wait a few more hours to be sure.

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:08 PM

Re: whoa there rick

apology accepted, and sorry I was so offended...maybe cause there was a bit of truth to it...ha!...we're cool....

no problem...but I promise, I ain't predicting a cat 5....maybe a 1....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:09 PM

Re: whoa there rick

Rick I wish you the best and hope you dont get hit too hard

Storm Cooper

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:12 PM

Re: whoa there rick

Yes Rick! Now you and LI Phil give each other a big hug..... so we can get back down to business

Southern4sure

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:12 PM

Re: new track

My inlaws have a couple of condos in Gulf Shores and lucked out pretty good with Ivan. Only 1 unit had substantial damage...unit #2 on the same floor had not a drop of water. The entire complex is still uninhabitable. They are loosing $ because they cant rent out as of yet. If Arlene does come close to Gulf Shores this could set them back further as well as all the others who are still trying to recover from Ivan. I feel for the ones who are likely to be effected by Arlene. I hope Arlene goes easy on them.

Teresa

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:12 PM

Re: new track

Hi-

Having gone through Francis and Jeanne at ground zero- I've learned that every storm deserves respect. It's because of the 'derivative' effects-such as the deluge, or the strains on resources. Every storm deserves to be respected and dealt with as if it could be a disaster in the making. Just be prepared and hope for the best. The best of luck to all of us!

(Meteorologist)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:14 PM

New Vortex

Latest Vortex Message found 46kt flight level winds (highest so far) and 40kt SFC winds (again, highest so far)...interesting.

Hurric

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:21 PM

Re: Something to watch...

I just have a feeling that the center is reforming or being drawn to the area just a bit SW of the Isle of Pines, (youth).
The circulation is broad and the center the NHC is tracking can still be seen, butit just has a look of everything being pulled NE closer to the convection.
Who knows, its tough with these weak systems. Could be a lot of surprises with this one.
Hurric

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:21 PM

Re: New Vortex

NW side does look much better...and that has occurred in the past hour since I left work. Looks as though there is a new batch of t-storms starting to form E, NE, and yes NW of the center. Tis could get interesting. I will go out on a limb and say we will have a minimal hurricane by landfall.

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:22 PM

Storm Track

It seems all of Florida is going to get 'under the weather' this weekend. The sound of people mowing their lawns is permeating the air.

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:28 PM

Re: Storm Track

the center looks like it is forming north

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:30 PM

strengthening?

it looks like it's trying to wrap around itself, doesn't it?....

what do you make of the potential now, anyone?

a category 1 seems a real possiblity... is a category 2 possible here?

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:33 PM

Re: strengthening?

With the gulf surface temperature barely over 80 degrees F and with landfall expected Saturday I wouldn't bet on Arlene becoming a hurricane at all.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:45 PM

Re: strengthening?

latest recon had 1001 and 46 kt FL, 40 kt surface (45 mph), so it does seem to be strengthening. Does seem to be getting better organized.

80 degrees is plenty warm for a storm to intensify...what matters most is the depth of the warn layer....in this the SE Gulf has a way to go, but there is also the 'loop current' which has lots of energy for the storm.

Cat 1 is not out of the question, if the shear will let up.

MM

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:47 PM

Re: strengthening?

i'm kinda with rick & mm on this one...i can see this making cane strength...not saying it willl and not saying it will landfall as such...i just got a hunch arlene hits 75-80 mph or so...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:48 PM

Re: strengthening?

Oops, sorry, I see I duplicated part of Jason's post...agree with him!

MM

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:50 PM

Re: strengthening?

I concur

berrywr

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:51 PM

Re: New Vortex

I took a long look at the satellite loop over the system and the loop between 1545Z and 2145Z shows a slow drift to the N, but I don't see any evidence of a new center, and the center is currently exposed. Between the upper trough in GOM, the shear which appears to be slackening, it begs the question with the dry entrainment affecting it to the west, we could be looking at a hybrid system and as you know those systems tend to have a large circulation envelope. I don't buy the new vortex with what I'm seeing on the visible satellite. If I were to look at the water vapor; maybe, the visible clearly shows a closed circulation away from the convection; though it is not too far away. It is clearly not in a good environment to wind up with the upper trough to the west and it's dry air.

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 10:53 PM

Re: strengthening?

Recon must be in the storms to ENE of the center. Been watching vis late this afternoon and it looks like there may be a new center trying to form. Just south of the tip of Cuba. The exposed low level swirl of the center is still spinning. Also appears that the much drier air to the wnw of center, near the tip of yucatan is fading away. So take a look at the lastest vis and see what you see.

berrywr

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:04 PM

Re: Something to watch...

I agree there is some improvement in the visible satellite presentation, but there is no evidence of a new center forming. The center while away from convection, it's too early (as of 23Z) whether convection is showing some wrapping around the center; though it is not too far away from the center. You have to remember the north and east quadrants, relative to movement are expected to have stronger convection, as is this case here.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:06 PM

Re: Something to watch...

is the high building in over FL?

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:07 PM

Re: new track

Yea and my step-children live in Algers and they would blow up the west bank levee and that would not be good for them because of the flooding plus I would not have no place to go walking when I go back to NO

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:11 PM

Re: New Vortex

New vortex possible....would be interesting if it forms... at my house strong wind gusts today to 50 mph with a line of afternoon "typical summer" storms that hit

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:12 PM

Re: fl winds?

latest recon have fl winds up to 52.9mph?
pressure down to 1001mb?
20.7 83.8

here's a map of latest votex positions. map of storm drops

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:16 PM

Re: fl winds?

is that the current location?...if so it seems from the last location it has moved to the northeast....am i wrong?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:19 PM

Re: strengthening?

Quote:

With the gulf surface temperature barely over 80 degrees F and with landfall expected Saturday I wouldn't bet on Arlene becoming a hurricane at all.

Where did you find this temperature, or better yet, temperature of the ambient air above the ocean?

Nevermind on the rest.... I need to think about it a little more....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:19 PM

Re: fl winds?

no....its just where the plane had dropped dropsonde for weather updates..... susprised they are flying over cuba.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:21 PM

Re: fl winds?

oh ok i was just wondering because i was gonna be like better go get my supplies while i can...lol...thanks for clarifying for me....any new news on 91?

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:23 PM

Re: fl winds?

NRL seems to have dropped 91L because the convection has dissipated and the LLC is weakening

javlin

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:23 PM

Re: fl winds?

That's the new possible location of the center of circulation it has relocated.Still moving N @ 8mph.Also the waters from YUC channel to the mouth of the MS are the warmest waters in the GOM 80-83 degrees.It has been said further E on the storms location helps in development removing from the shear and dry air.Even though this not much maybe.3 degrees E and some N.We have to see if the models do anything with this a couple runs from now.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:24 PM

Re: Recon data

Please check the times on any Recon source that you use outside of NHC. I noticed last night that there was a substantial delay, an hour or more, in some of the reports hitting websites other than NHC.
It will help keep some of the confusion down.
...Z time is 2322Z or 7:22 EDT or 6:22 CDT

Thanks!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:27 PM

Re: fl winds?

i must say i appreciate everyone who has helped me in trying to understand things and also for explainging about how this storm is forming and developing...thank you all for welcoming and i am so greatful i found this site(wish i would have found it last year) again thanks from the Hall family...

Hopefully this year we will be more prepared when my daughters birthday comes around...her birthday is sept 5th and we were stuck in a hurricane shelter last year for her 1st birthday:(...

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:34 PM

Re: Recon data

Quote:

Please check the times on any Recon source that you use outside of NHC. I noticed last night that there was a substantial delay, an hour or more, in some of the reports hitting websites other than NHC.
Thanks!

Danny, Last year, someone posted a RECON DECODER here in the forum. I *thought* I got it from Mike or Ed or John sometime after Charlie last season. I can't find it anywhere now. Do you still have a copy?

Richard

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:36 PM

Re: fl winds?

No question in my mind the GOM can support a Cat 1 or weak 2 cane.... albeit the GOM temps are not all that deep like they would be in the peak of the season, as long as it doesn't create any upwelling by stalling the temps are there to support minimal cane development.... now will every thing else be in place for support????
shear, good stacking, outflow, moist air....

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:39 PM

Re: fl winds?

Does anyone have a link to the recon decoder ? I just got a new laptop and want to install it asap

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:40 PM

Re: fl winds?

looks to me the models are back to the right, over the fl panhandle

Storm Cooper

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:42 PM

Re: fl winds?

What "models" do you speak of?

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:45 PM

Re: Recon data

Quote:

Danny, Last year, someone posted a RECON DECODER here in the forum. I *thought* I got it from Mike or Ed or John sometime after Charlie last season. I can't find it anywhere now. Do you still have a copy?
Richard

Richard, good to see you back with the rest of us.
As a matter of fact there were about 4 or 6 of us working on a new decoder until 2 AM this morning.
The New WC-130J model has a slightly different format in their reports. So several of the programmers got together and worked on a newer version that will decode both the "H" and "J" model recon reports.
I'll have to see how it's going with them.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:45 PM

Re: fl winds?

What's the link Mike GFS is the newest I have seen at 1800 hrs.I expect it will take a run or two to initialize the new fix.

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:45 PM

Re: fl winds?

Quote:

i must say i appreciate everyone who has helped me in trying to understand things and also for explainging about how this storm is forming and developing...thank you all for welcoming and i am so greatful i found this site(wish i would have found it last year) again thanks from the Hall family...

I think you'll find a whole big bunch of people in this forum that are always willing to answer questions. Without exception, every one of the members, even the professional mets, at one time had to ask questions and learn how, when, what and why. Now, with the experience they've achieved over the years, they return the knowledge to those just starting their journey to knowledge. One day, you may be the one answering questions. Of all the sites I frequent, on any subject, this is by far the best, most knowledgeable and accurate...add friendl. You should do well here.

Richard

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:46 PM

Re: fl winds?

these.. all day over towards mobile, now over the panhandle of fl

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:49 PM

Re: fl winds?

Quote:

looks to me the models are back to the right, over the fl panhandle

Al. I'm with you there. It's 23:46Z, I don't think Any of the models have even started yet. NAM is usually the first to finish , and that's 2-3 hours from now.
Please check the times on your reports. Jason taught me to do a better job of that last night.
Time now is 23:48Z 7:48 EDT and 6:48 CDT

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:50 PM

Atmospheric Pressure

Quote:

Nevermind on the rest.... I need to think about it a little more....

Ok, let me take two here....

I started thinking about atmospheric pressure, and since I'm used to thinking about gas laws regading closed systems, find myself a little confused. I know 760 mm Hg is standard atmospheric pressure, but pressure, temperature, and number density (encompasses both molecules and volume) are all related by the ideal gas law. Although pressure, temperature and number of molecules decreases with altitude in the troposphere (and pressure, and number of molecules in the stratosphere), what happens at the surface when the temperature changes. I would think a higher temperature would actually increase both the number density and pressure due to faster molecular motion (which will collide with the surface more frequently, exerting more pressure) and due to a higher concentration of gas molecules becase of increased water vapor concentrations from evaporation (as temperature increases vapor pressure increases). But, then again, more evaporation means more condensation, etc., so maybe the water vapor concentration is not increasing, really... but, the molecular motion argument should still stand. However, pressure can also be defined as the weight of the air above, and this should be constant, meaning that surface atmospheric pressure does not change much...

So, how related is atmospheric pressure and temperature? Is the number density constant, so you'd just use the ideal gas law to determine the pressure at a different temperature? Or, does the number density increase because of more evaporation? or, better yet decrease because of expansion (as T increases, V increases), which may keep pressure constant?

Boy, I'll stick to my balloon scenarios in class!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:52 PM

latest

also appears that there are new storms near what i think is a possible new center. just south ot the tip of cuba, maybe sw. notice the storms out in GOM north of tip of yucatan. Still shear but appears weaking too.

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:52 PM

Re: fl winds?

Quote:

What "models" do you speak of?

I like the ones at playboy

Wait wrong models

Storm Cooper

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:54 PM

Re: fl winds?

That is not nearly all the model runs and also you (they) have different run times mixed in. The latest is pretty clustered around the Mobile/Baldwin Co. AL still. New runs should be out in a couple of hours.

You can look on the CFHC main page and see the latest runs comps. of Skeet BTW

(User)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:55 PM

Re: Recon data

Quote:

Richard, good to see you back with the rest of us.
As a matter of fact there were about 4 or 6 of us working on a new decoder until 2 AM this morning.
The New WC-130J model has a slightly different format in their reports. So several of the programmers got together and worked on a newer version that will decode both the "H" and "J" model recon reports.
I'll have to see how it's going with them.

I've been lurking for a while now, but haven't had a lot to say...that'll change

If and when you guys get the magic decoder ring running the way you want it to, may I suggest it be put online here on the board where it can be downloaded/used by those of us in the 'great unwashed masses'? Here's looking for an active season of fish-spinners to test our collective abilities in forecasting and tracking but NOT testing our homes and will to live through another SFH (tm Phil).

Richard

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu Jun 09 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Recon data

The Recon Info link on the left is what you are thinking of I think. It has the original code as a link there plus the modified one mike uses is on that page.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:04 AM

Re: Recon data

she is trying to hang

URNT12 KNHC 092344
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/23:27:40Z
B. 20 deg 10 min N
084 deg 10 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 100 deg 071 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 106 deg 089 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 24 C/ 469 m
J. 24 C/ 469 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 46 KT N QUAD 21:15:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
WEAK CENTER; NOT WELL ORGANIZED

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:04 AM

Recon Decoder

I have an url to a vortex msg decoder that seems to work:

Hurricane Vortex Decoder

--Lou

(User)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:08 AM

Re: Recon data

Quote:

The Recon Info link on the left is what you are thinking of I think. It has the original code as a link there plus the modified one mike uses is on that page.

One of the things that happen when you get as old as I am is that you become BLIND! Thanks for the Braille pointer

Richard

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:24 AM

Re: Recon Decoder

Quote:

I have an url to a vortex msg decoder that seems to work:

Hurricane Vortex Decoder

--Lou

very very neat little decoder there now i understand a little bit more about the numbers, letters mumbo jumbo....lol

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:26 AM

Re: Recon Decoder

Quote:

I have an url to a vortex msg decoder that seems to work:

Hurricane Vortex Decoder

--Lou

Thanks Lou . That's what I needed

Welcome back Richard

(Moderator)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:34 AM

Hmm.

If you look at WV loops (not for the center) you can see the dry air just cutting off the western half of Arlene. I have no idea how she will make it as TS all the way to Alabama. However, that's not my job.

What is very impressive, however, is looking at the EASTERN quadrant of the storm.
I DO believe that she may be trying to reform her center in a more favorable environment.
But don't take that from the chick that's terrified of frogs.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:44 AM

Re: Hmm.

The SW'erly shear that is causing Arlene to be sheared apart at this time is forecast to relax. You're right, if that shear continues she will have a hard time getting any better organized.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:52 AM

Re: Hmm.

Hi there, in my opinion I do think she is forming a new center. Probably near 85 and 22

Water vapor does show extreme damaging shear on the western side. However ir4 show that a better circle defined thunderstorm activity. the south side of her is very defined curve in ir4 imagery.dvorak at the 8:30 image has heavy thunderstorms in the nw corner and se corner at the time.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...F_NAME=al012005
However, in scat imagery for wind direction still shows the center where nhc has it. I dont even see another cirulation. So im half and half now, lol

Tell me what you thing at my novice explaination.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:56 AM

Re: Hmm.

I have been looking at a water Vapor loop out of Miami, and if that Front looking area coming from the West does not speed up or slow down, it looks as though it could steer this storm closer to Florida than was originally forecast by the models. I know that there are many scenarios to choose from, but it looks eeriely similar to the path that Gabrielle took back in 2001, when we went to bed and she turned into a hurricane and came through Polk County as a very comparatively minimal storm. Thankfully she was not terribly destructive. In fact I believe, I went to work only to find out that we were closed and by the time I got back home 4 miles away, she had come through our area. Our bosses were so aggravated that they had closed the office for what amounted to a heavy rain storm and 20 minutes of winds over 30 miles per hour. Its amazing how 3 hurricanes in one season can change your perspective on what danger and excitement can be like.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 12:59 AM

Re: Hmm.

I remember gabrielle pretty well...had very intense wind gusts to near hurricane force over the bay briefly...destroyed marinas along the west coast...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:01 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

Wow Terra, I'd love to know what you do for a living. I am assuming you are not a meteorologist but are some kind of scientist because you doing some advanced thinking on Atmospheric Science there.

I could try to explain it to you but I would need an hour, a good dynamics textbook for re-inforcement and some NoDoz to keep you awake.

The bottom line is that there is a relation but it is not a constant relationship. It's a lot to do with upper air dynamics and global patterns. Basically at the same level, if the temperature is different than so will be pressure. If the temperature dropped than it's likely that the pressure will be higher, but not in direct realtion and not due to the reduction in temperature.

Look, I took three semesters of dynamics and it's still fuzzy sometimes. I hope this answered your question.

At least I tried!

(Moderator)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:06 AM

Re: Hmm.

Well done! That's a pretty cool picture, too.
To be very honest with you, unless the models start changing their ideas and/or the NHC doesn't see any reforming of the center, I don't know that we're right or wrong.
As JK explained to me last night, I can't use the WV loop to find the center, but from everything I CAN see, it appears to ME that the center may be trying to reform further east and under the convection. It's easier for the storm to do that - like they have brains or something that tell them:
"Gee whiz, ya know....if I move over HERE, I can really get my act together, miss the shear altogether and get all four quadrants fired up. Not only will I throw off all the models, ticking off Frank P. up there in Mississippi, but everyone in Florida will be running around like raving lunatics wondering what I'm gonna bring them. So yeah, I'll move to the right.
Or NOT!"
See, this is what happens when a storm doesn't act like you want it to. It makes your brain all jiggly and jello-like.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:15 AM

Re: Hmm.

I remember Gabrielle too. It came through in the early morning, although i thought it was closer to Venice than Port Charlotte. The wind really whipped through Bradenton (my friend had a gauge that measures wind speed and that thing said the wind was constant 65 MPH for about 3 minutes). Anyway, i always thought it was a minimal cat 1 when it hit, but it was in between recons and we were told it was a TS. I remember TS Marco years ago and that was nothing campared to Gabrielle.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:21 AM

Chatroom is open.....

The chatroom is open, look to the chat link to the left, or if you know your way around IRC, connect to irc.flhurricane.com:7000 and join room #flhurricane. I'll be there and we can roundtable a bit if you all want to.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:24 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

Quote:

Wow Terra, I'd love to know what you do for a living. I am assuming you are not a meteorologist but are some kind of scientist because you doing some advanced thinking on Atmospheric Science there.

I could try to explain it to you but I would need an hour, a good dynamics textbook for re-inforcement and some NoDoz to keep you awake.

Nah, you wouldn't need NoDoz, as I am such a nerd that I would enjoy the three semesters condensed into an hour. I suspected I would be told that it was related, but not in a linear manner, I was just hoping my answer would be something that didn't require differential equations. I find it interesting that a drop in temperature would cause an increase in pressure... seems backwards... I'll try another argument besides the ideal gas law.... if temperature decreases, relative humidity would increase (provided water vapor remained constant). This would cause condensation to occur (if the RH reached saturation) and would actually lower the water vapor concentration in the atmosphere.. now, I'm sure, since water vapor is only 0-4% of the total atmospheric composition that the effect would be negligble, but how could the pressure be higher? Man, I'll never get it!

As for me, I am an analytical chemist that stumbled into an atmospheric chemistry group for graduate school, as I wanted to go to Greenland. We looked at chemical reaction mechanisms (focusing on tropospheric ozone, actually), and while I had to take one atmospheric chemistry course, and do number density/scale height calcs for some of my gas-phase computer models, I didn't learn too much about how the atmosphere works... does that make sense? Now I teach chemistry and Earth science and I find every semester, I teach more and more about the atmosphere and meteorology. In fact, last semester, I actually took a stab at teaching adiabatic lapse rate to my 100-level survey class... not sure how it went over, but I think they caught on.

Anyway, enough about me... who are you Mr./Ms. Not-At-Home?

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:42 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

hehe I Terra won that one notathome
dont even try to response, um quite pointless at this point. lol

lol

(Moderator)

Fri Jun 10 2005 01:52 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

Sounds good!

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:27 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

Evening all, been away since 5pm EST, anyone wanna give a quick and dirty update for me, she looks a bit haggered. Also, where did 91L go??????

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:29 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

damn it java wont run right

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

Try downloading MIRC....

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:32 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

Not sure of your OS, 2 days in a row w/ JAVA issues, get a hold of the HD for your system, gotta have JAVA for this

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:36 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

Terra -- with weather systems, we typically use what is called the hydrostatic approximation. It comes out of Newton's second law and a force balance diagram, essentially, and isn't specific to just meteorology. It states that the change in pressure over a change in height is equal to the negative of the gravitational constant times the density. You can plug the ideal gas law into this equation (for density; p = rho*Rd*Tv) to get a relationship with regards to temperature. Further manipulation is possible until we get to something called the hypsometric equation. I won't go into the full details here, though.

This equation allows us to use thickness principles -- essentially, how far of a distance is it between two pressure levels -- in conjunction with atmospheric laws to understand the temperature structure of cyclones. Low pressure systems can have either warm or cold cores, where the temperature in the center of the system is either warmer or colder (respectively) than that outside the center. How these cyclones vary in intensity with height comes from this equation and shows how a warm core surface cyclone must weaken in intensity with height -- as we see with hurricanes. That's but one of many examples -- there are lists around in meteorology texts that deal with many more -- but the jist of everything is that with a cyclone, the strength of the warm or cold temperature anomalies will determine how far the pressure falls.

Note that in a simplified scenario, we can use the ideal gas law; but in reality, the more applicable equation is the moist gas law. Nevertheless, the implications are about the same.

Hope this isn't too far out there...

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

Quote:

Note that in a simplified scenario, we can use the ideal gas law; but in reality, the more applicable equation is the moist gas law. Nevertheless, the implications are about the same.

Hope this isn't too far out there...

Okkkaaaayyyyy. The "simplified" ideal gas law. But of course!!!

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:48 AM

Initialization

Riddle me this.

The 5 p.m. NHC forecast path seems to already have built into it an initial west of north path, then more poleward, then more east after landfall around the Ala-Miss border. If the storm is at this point moving north (rather than west of north as in the 5 p.m. path), does it not follow that even if the ridge builds in, the speed is correct, blah blah blah, landfall must be east of the projected path? And, if so, it would seem that the longer it moves poleward before moving to the left a bit, the further east the projected landfall would have to be.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

lawgator -- I didn't say the simplified ideal gas law; I said that it simplifies the interpretation of things. The ideal gas law is for just that -- an ideal gas. The atmosphere & its gases doesn't always work under "ideal" conditions...

As to your follow-up question, you are correct. I'm not sure why the track was shifted a bit further east, but it's a smaller-scale repeat of what we saw to some degree last year. Only time will tell how it plays out, but I personally think the 11a track is more representative than the 5p track. But trust the professionals, all things considering.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

mirc good, what channel?????????? to log into. I click on chat it connects asks me what channel to connect?

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

I remember learning the ideal gas law in high school and then in college... then I took physical chemistry and was crushed when I learned that gases don't exactly behave ideally under normal conditions.... We learned how to deal with real gases and mathematically... that was just not fun. This is why I strayed far from physical chemistry!

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:55 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

A tropical storm watch will likely be required Friday morning for
portions of the north central U.S. Gulf Coast from southeastern
Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 02:57 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

Thanks Clark. That explanation clears things up in the sense that originally I had no idea what you were talking about. Now, however, I am totally with you. Uhhhh. Not really. But I am a mere Gator and you live in Tallahassee. I figure you being physically closer to the FSU supercomputer gives you a leg up on me in the smarts department. The only "gas law" with which I am familiar is the one where you are not allowed to get gas and leave without paying for it.

In all seriousness, I agree with your assessment on the official forecast track going back right. Just watched the IR floater and "center" (such as it is) sure seems significantly east at this point of where they thought it would be.

I have a tee time Sunday. Cart path only or mask and snorkel?

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Jun 10 2005 03:00 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

finally figure it out and no one is in ther

i quite

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 10 2005 03:09 AM

Re: Chatroom is open.....

30 people now try again

(Meteorologist)

Fri Jun 10 2005 03:30 AM

Re: Atmospheric Pressure

lawgator -- hey, as big of a Seminole I may be, I'm always willing to give UF due credit! Holds true especially since my sister is a UF student. I don't have access to the Supercomputer or anything -- though I wish we did; we could run some killer models on there. I'm still trying to be able to explain things better so everyone can understand, so if there's anything you (or anyone else) don't (doesn't) understand from what I've posted, by all means peg me and say "what the heck did you just say?"!

As for Sunday -- depends on how fast this system gets outta dodge. The course is going to be wet though, nonetheless.