MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Thu Jun 09 2005 11:30 PM
The Arlene Situation

5PM Update 10.Jun
Hurricane Watch extended eastward to Indian Pass, FL (Just west of Tallahassee) and winds upgraded to 65MPH.

See Clark's blog below for an updated discussion.

11:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene Strengthens some more, now Hurricane Watches are up along the coast from the mouth of the Pearl River in Mississippi to Panama City Beach, FL.

The windspeed is based off of aircraft recon reports, which reported around 50 knot winds near the disorganized center of Arlene. In fact they moved the center northward a bit because of relocation. So this may happen again. Vertical windshear weakened and has allowed Arlene to strengthen a bit as it entered the Gulf. And because of the close call, Arlene may squeeze itself to minimal hurricane strength, and at the very least force the Hurricane Watches along the coast. Folks in the watch area will want to be ready for a minimal hurricane.

Most of the energy is on the Northeastern side of the storm, including rainfall bands coming into Southwestern Florida now.



8:00 AM Update 10.Jun
Arlene is now in the Gulf of Mexico, and the winds are up to 55MPH. Arlene has been spawning waterspouts near the Florida Keys, and may stir up the atmosphere enough to spawn more relatively weak waterspouts/tornadoes.

7:30 AM Update 10.Jun
Tropical Storm Arlene got slightly stronger overnight, and now Tropical Storm Watches are up from Morgan City, LA to Indian Pass Florida. The models have drifted a bit west, and this watch area is pretty solid I thnk. A good portion of the energy extends Northeastward on this system, which will bring rain to Central Florida as well.

The forecast maps below are probably too far east, but we'll wait and see today.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Arlene is still south of the west of Cuba, and not all that organized right now.

It may have a chance to strengthen just a little when it gets into the Gulf proper. However, if it gets closer to land the windshear as it approaches will likely pick up, which would keep the storm in check and stop it from growing too strong. Arlene still has a window to reach minimal hurricane strength, but I doubt it will reach that. A strong Tropical storm and rain event is most likely over the weekend.

The most recent trends have it going a little west of the prior forecast tracks, which is good news for us in Florida, as it may keep some of the rain away. However, the extent of the storm northward will still give us some of the outermost bands, as Arlene is a large storm, so it won't be rain free. Some of it is already in the Keys. The intensity is still in question, so we'll have to watch. As mentioned before the good news is that it might weaken before it gets to land a bit, from whatever it will be at the time. The 36 hour timeframe is liekly when Arlene will peak.

Skeetobite Forecast Maps: (Click Maps for larger image)


Movement likens it more from LA to the western Florida Panhandle. Centering along the Alabama and Mississippi Coastline. This could change, as I'm not all that confident in it. The trend has been to the west, after moving a bit to the east. Persistence is the key to watch here.



As this is an early June storm, they actually tend to be easier to predict, but even then, it's not all that great.

We'll be watching it closely. The area east of the Caribbean is still looking ragged and not at all likely to develop anytime soon.


Event Related Links

Key west long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports


Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Jun 09 2005 11:43 PM
Re: The Arlene Situation

The new 00z Models are in and they have shifted somewhat more to the west it seems. Also the NHC track is in agreement with most of the models. I guess its now a wait and see whether or not she can get her act together in the gulf.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Is there a problem with the board or is nobody posting? I feel so alone

jaybythebay
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Everyone is in chatroom

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:40 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

With so much heat and humidity and that is creating so much scattered thunderstrom up and down the east coast, how much effect will this have on the Arlene situation? Does it have little or no effect, or does it have a greater effect on what will happen once those bands hit land and all this heat and humidity?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM
Re:Arlene Update

I believe that some of the heat and humidity that you are experiencing on the Eastern Seaboard is due to an elongated trough of low pressure, feeding moisture from the Gulf Of Mexico.
Arlene is presently, 0837Z, in a small pinch of an area between the elongated trough and an encroaching ridge of higher pressure moving toward the west from the Atlantic Ocean.
Two scenarios come to mind. (disclaimer-I am not a meteorologist)
1-Arlene squeezes throught the 'pinch' area as forecast and contributes more moisture to your area.
2- Arlene absorbs, and cuts off the moisture being ejected toward the Eastern Seaboard.

That being said, the last frame of present satellite imagery ends at 08:15Z. 4:15EDT/ 3:15CDT.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Several of the channels on the SSD website are now showing a very easily seen low level circulation. Just S of the most western tip of Cuba. I believe this is the Cape San Antonio and Cape Corrientes region.
http://www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/cuba-map-1898.jpg

Recon has reported a 180 deg (South) wind at 45kts. 0742Z
and the last report was wind 170 deg ( SSE) at 44 kts. 0813Z

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 36 HR...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/100840.shtml


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:58 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

winds are up and pressure is down a bit

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Well the first storm of the season and I am under a Tropical Storm Watch.

Watch issued from Morgan City to Indian Pass, FL.


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:30 AM
Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z)

If you use Channel 2 IR, you can clearly see the low level circulation of Arlene separated from her convection. The upper level situation this morning indicates upper level trough remains to the west and north of Arlene, subtropical ridge to her northeast and building towards the SE-Carolina coast, upper level closed low underneath the ridge. My memory serves me correct; this placement of the lows & highs, will continue to build the ridge in the short term. I had a hard time finding the upper level low on satellite, so this might bear some watching later in the forecast period if it reflects down to the surface. There is a window of opportunity looking at the GOES 12 Shear analysis, but shear is expected to increase just prior to landfall according to the models. Arlene's appearance is that of a hybrid system. She continues to have a large circualtion envelope as evident on the water vapor imagery this morning. I'm not about to guess whether she'll obtain CAT1 Hurricane status; hybrid systems can often achieve that status; but no higher. Track position looks good, though I expect the center will continue to be nudged westward, a north moving system has all her weather on it's north and east flanks and Arlene is true to form.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:56 AM
Re: Arlene - Jun 10th at 5 a.m. ET (09Z)

Landfall has also be pushed back anouther day untill Sunday meaning that this thing is really going to slow down and drop even more rain on the central gulf coat

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:13 AM
Key West

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KEYW.html

Wind from the ESE (120 degrees) at 22 MPH (19 KT) gusting to 32 MPH (28 KT)
Visibility 9 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain
Precipitation last hour 0.05 inches
Temperature 81.0 F (27.2 C)
Dew Point 75.9 F (24.4 C)
Relative Humidity 84%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.74 in. Hg (1007 hPa)


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:42 AM
Habana

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUHA.html

Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 28 MPH (24 KT) gusting to 49 MPH (43 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Weather Light rain
Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 83%


WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:53 AM
Re: Habana

NHC site says the final advisory has been issued on Arlene. I'm assuming that's a whoopsie.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:57 AM
Re: Habana

Me too. I just woke up after my 5 hour sleep to see the final advisory written on her? Am I still asleep or did I miss something.

HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:31 AM
Re: Habana

had me guessing for a minute too... last advisory, satelite presentation, vortex message... the evidence didn't add up.
arlene has its winds bumped up to 55mph... recon evidence is there.. but i wouldn't call that characteristic of how strong the storm is. the shear has been forecast to relax gradually as arlene moves into the gulf, so that numbers should seem authentic as can be later today. official track is over in ms again this morning. still leaning a tad east, but it's close enough (ms gets hit, and al/fl panhandle get just as much weather). think arlene will get stronger than officially forecast, but not by much. it's getting around the unhelpful side of the upper trough to it's west right now, and the subsidence entrainment should be slowly slacking off. enough for limited further strengthening, anyhow.
out-of-the-blue.. nhc is mentioning disturbed weather near the islands, but they could also give a shoutout to the low southeast of bermuda.. yesterday's 91L. this morning it's popping a couple of thunderstorms near the center. it's a regular td 4 (2000) out there. i have a feeling that it won't go away until it makes the TWO highlights.
HF 1330z10june


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:48 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

A bit OT, but I'll ask anyway... ;-)

Last year I thought the coolest feature on this site was the chart that combined the projected path, the cone of death, and the pridicted wind speeds, all on a map that showed the roads, towns, etc. I hope that explanation is enough to jog memories. Will this type of map be back for this year? I hope so!!!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:49 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

"predicted," sorry...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:56 AM
Re:Arlene Update

I just got finished watching the "path" of Arlene on our local station and I noticed this: the "brick" wall looks like it went down from 3 "^^^" to 1 "^" between us on the Florida Gulf Coast and Arlene. I can tell by the radar that we're gonna be pounded here in Lakeland in a little while, but I am wondering if it will eventually turn more NW or stay on a more NNW track keeping it closer to the Not-So-Much Sunshine State today. Any thoughts?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:04 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Last year I thought the coolest feature on this site was the chart that combined the projected path, the cone of death, and the pridicted wind speeds, all on a map that showed the roads, towns, etc. Will this type of map be back for this year? I hope so!!!




Good morning all, here is the link for those maps, let me know if these were what you were referring to.
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/tracking.asp


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:07 AM
Re:Arlene Update

arlene is becoming interesting again...she has bumped up her winds to 55 mph with reports of gusts to 70...she has also begun to accelerate slightly and is expected to continue to speed up her trek towards the gulf states...landfall and intensity are still anyone's guess, but ima say just west of mobile bay, saturday night (late), 65 mph or so...every one from mobile east is prolly due for a decent soaking, though if she continues increasing her forward speed, it may spare most from 10+" deluges...winds shouldn't be much of a problem, but if one still does not have a roof, tarps better be secured as frimly as possible

i had a little side bet with jason that this would at some point achieve cane status, but right now this is a bet ima prepared to lose (not quite crow...but close...i'm starting early this year) too much sheer left over from an upper level trof in the GOM will prevent intensification to cane status (not that that is a bad thing)

watching TWC as i type this and it is amazing how Pensacola in many areas still looks like a war zone from ivan...

that's about all for now...will wait and see what the 11:00 says...

everybody BUCKLE UP


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:10 AM
NWS Discussion @ 8:46am

Just read the updated discussion for the Tampa area. Looks like they plan on "upping" the rain %'s and possibly extending and/or expanding the Flood Watch, but they want to wait for the 88D's, whatever they are, before doing that. They are also concerned about "spinups" in our area.
Didn't want to paste & copy the whole thing, just pare it down to the bare minimum of what's really the meat of the discussion.
It's getting breezy here and you can tell Arlene is getting closer....or at least her bands are getting closer.


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:11 AM
Chat last night

Chat was fun last night... we should do it again! Anyway, speaking of last night... I was just flipping channels and saw a lead for CNN Headline News where they mentioned the baby boom. A 26% increase in the number of births from last year... amazing!

Ricreig
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:13 AM
Re: Chat last night

Quote:

Chat was fun last night... we should do it again! Anyway, speaking of last night... I was just flipping channels and saw a lead for CNN Headline News where they mentioned the baby boom. A 26% increase in the number of births from last year... amazing!



... well, you know about power failures and CHEMISTRY, don't you Doctor?


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:16 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Is it me or does it seem that the center has reformed NE of the NHC position and closer to the t-storms. It certainly looks like that on sat pics. Could be my eyes playing tricks. It wouldn't change much except maybe up the intensity a little bit.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:17 AM
Re: Chat last night

Maybe I'm just weird (or single) but that would be the last thing on my mind when the electricity is out (i.e. no air conditioner) and I'm worried that the storm would cause damage!

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:18 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Quote:

A bit OT, but I'll ask anyway... ;-)

Last year I thought the coolest feature on this site was the chart that combined the projected path, the cone of death, and the pridicted wind speeds, all on a map that showed the roads, towns, etc. I hope that explanation is enough to jog memories. Will this type of map be back for this year? I hope so!!!




I believe this is what you are looking for:



Yes, these maps will be back at CFHC this year. Note that these maps are created when a hurricane is within 2 or 3 days of landfall.


Ricreig
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Chat last night

Quote:

Maybe I'm just weird (or single) but that would be the last thing on my mind when the electricity is out (i.e. no air conditioner) and I'm worried that the storm would cause damage!


I doubt DURING the storm was the time frame that all of the 'accidental chemistry' occurred ... and if the air conditioning is off, well, you're already 'hot', aren't you? Doesn't that increase the intensity of 'chemical' reactions?

richard


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:21 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Nevermind....It was my eyes playing tricks. She certainly is moving at a much faster clip now though and the NW quadrant is starting to come into its own a little bit. We could still see her make minimal cane status. Phil don't eat that crow just yet.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:22 AM
Re:Arlene Update

I see what your saying JTH, Im not to sure myself. Looks like she went due north from the western tip of Cuba since last night. Im guessing there is supposed to be a turn to the NNW or NW later on in the day, but thats anyones guess right now. 06z GFDL seems to be on target predicting this movement north, then turning NW towards MS/AL.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:23 AM
Re:Arlene Update

What direction is she going. Im not looking at any loops at the moment so could you give me and estimate of motion. Thanks.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:25 AM
Re:Arlene Update

If I saw it correctly this last time, she is moving NNW. She appears to be crossing 85W now.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:28 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Thanks

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:29 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Good Link to watch:

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 31.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): E ( 96 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.69 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.5 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.1 F
Dew Point (DEWP): 74.7 F
Heat Index (HEAT): 79.3 F


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:33 AM
Re:Arlene Update

I think your right about that N move, http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:35 AM
Re:Arlene Update

It's almost impossible to see what direction she's heading in...NHC says NNW, so I guess she's going NNW. Maybe she will begin that eventual turn to the NW soon, who knows. Or she might just ride right up the eastern side of the Cone of Death. I look at it this way: she's still moving in a more northernly fashion. While this really didn't matter when she was out in the open waters, it DOES matter now because as long as she's on that course, the worse the weather in Florida will be. I am actually surprised that with her being that close to the Keys that they have not put up TS Warnings for that area. But what do I know?
As the old saying goes, "Time will tell."

p.s...they do have up TS Warnings for the Dry Tortugas. Just saw that on TWC. They also said it looks like it's trying to form a CDO, just north of Cuba.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:39 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

SkeetoBite, that was it, thanks!

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:40 AM
Re:Arlene Update

>>> p.s...they do have up TS Warnings for the Dry Tortugas. Just saw that on TWC. They also said it looks like it's trying to form a CDO, just north of Cuba.

well...it was bill keneely who said that, not jon nese...so we'll see if that actually takes place...as far as her movement, i still think it's nnw, but that boatus graphic tas posted certainly looks like a due north jog...

i still wouldn't be worried about winds from this, but the rains and the potential for severe weather within the bands are definitely going to have an impact


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:41 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Tropical storm warnings remain in effect for western Cuba from Pinar del Rio to Havana and for the Dry Tortugas

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:43 AM
Re:Arlene Update

That formation of the CDo is what is making it look like she is reforming, but she is still chugging along on a NNNW direction.

That said, she is definitely east of her forecast position.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:46 AM
Re:Arlene Update

That's true...but you can look at the radar and see what they mean by "trying" to form a CDO. Wouldn't that mean that *if* that is happening it's not entrained in all that dry air to it's west but in a more favorable environment for development, like say, further east? I'm not worried about the winds, I'm more worried about getting more rain than anyone needs, especially since half the county has roofs dressed in blue.
The last time that site was updated was 8:02am. It'll be interesting to see where it is next. That's a pretty awesome website. Another one to add to my favorites!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:56 AM
Re:Arlene Update

CDO? Not familiar with that abbreviation...

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 09:57 AM
Re:Arlene Update

cdo= central dense overcast:

The Central Dense Overcast is the circular mass of clouds that rotate around the center, or eye of a hurricane. This portion is usually symmetric in nature.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:00 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Good morning everyone. Winds in the Keys are currently 30 - 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Winds along both the SW and SE Florida coasts are currently 20 - 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. A lot of rain is about to move in to Dade County. Still waiting for the rains here in Palm Beach County.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:01 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Morning all.

Colleen, I posted to you on the previous thread. I guess I should have checked in here first.


Hope everyone has a great Friday tracking!

Katie


Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:02 AM
Re:Arlene Update

HURCON 3 has been declared here at Hurlburt Field, FL. Looks like our blue tarps will be flapping in the wind fairly soon.

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:03 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

Skeetobite, looking forward to seeing your maps again this year! You were the only one to pinpoint specific areas and the diagram of the red and blue showing where the winds could be felt was just terrific. You were such a great help as were your maps. Thank you!

Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:09 AM
Re: The Arlene Situation

I'll echo Katie's sentiments. Skeetobite's map's are extremely useful, and highly professional.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:12 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Best I can tell, the center is around 23.8N and 85.3 west moving NNW fairly quickly. The sat presentation certainly is improving rapidly this am as well.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:13 AM
CDO

The CDO... What I see looks like it is forming to the E of where the center is supposed to be... far enough E that the whole thing will fit on top of Cuba, looking at the map. With such a 'poorly defined' center of circulation, is it more likely for the center to shift?

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:20 AM
Re: CDO

Couple quick things, abbreviations commonly used you can move the mouse over when reading the forums and see a description and sometimes a link for more info.

For example try moving your mouse over these:

- NHC ERC CDO LLC SST TUTT ENSO GFDL Skeetobite CFHC and so on.

Any time I find a new one, I usually add it to the help list.


Kal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:23 AM
Re: CDO

Arlene seems to have had her morning coffee. The NHC didn't mention the possibility of rapid intensification, but she really seems to be popping at the moment. Is this just a pulsing effect, or is this storm going to make a run at Cat 1 before landfall? Thoughts anyone?

Liz
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:26 AM
Re: CDO

Thank you Mike...that's a great help

Liz


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:27 AM
Re:Arlene Update

Maybe I missed it somewhere, which pretty awesome website are you referring to. Here is another for everyone, not sure if you use this part of the site or not https://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:30 AM
Re: CDO

Wouldn't call it rapid intensification, but she is starting to get her act together. I still believe if she makes it as far west as forecast, she will be a cane at landfall.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:31 AM
Re: CDO

Mike, thanks for the info!

Artsy Fartsy
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:40 AM
Re: CDO

I know I don't post often, but, I am a reagular "lurker" and look forward to hourly check-ups with you guys. I know most of you aren't pros, but, you are all seasoned vets of these types of storms.

But, the point of my post was to thank MikeC for the roll over effect on the most common acronyms. I am by no means a meteorologist nor an atmospheric scientist, and the addition of this feature will help me to understand the posts a little more clearly.

Thanks again.


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:43 AM
Re: CDO

Mike, that is great! Thank you so much for doing that!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:44 AM
Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

HW---Pearl River to PANAMA CITY
TS Warnings- Grand Isle to ST. MARKS

Arlene is definitely on a track that has significantly deviated to the left of the forecast and is growing stronger faster. Landfall as a 70 mph tropical storm...think Barry.

Looks like an eye feature is beginning to show....

HU


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Correction, deviated to the RIGHT....heaviest weather expected in Fl.

HU


Shalafi
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
Re: CDO

This feature was active last year too but the items that had the tip were underlined and blue right? Made it obvious there was more to it than word. Might be helpful

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:47 AM
Re:Arlene Update

I tell ya, you look at RAMSDIS - 12 4km IR 4 Floater #1 and on the last frame 192, I am wondering when exactly it starts the move W? Being that I am in Tampa

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Looks like hurricane watches will go up at the 11am update. Should be interesting to see who will be included and how big of an area it will cover.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Yes, Arlene needs to get some more of a westerly movement or she will head right in to the panhandle with the worst weather in the Florida Big Bend area.

Artsy Fartsy
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:56 AM
Is this what I am seeing?

I am looking at this WV loop...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

I am only looking at the last five frames (sat repositioning).

It appears as though some of the stronger rain bands that were close to the center of circulation are being ejected (toward FL) and that the cetral area of the storm seems to grow more intense very quickly.

Does anyone else see this, or am I too new at this that I am not aware of what I am actually seeing?

Thanks,
Jody T.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:56 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Droop--

see my post...that is where the HW/TSW will be...heaviest wx Al and Fl.

HU


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 10:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Correct..Landfall still in the Mobile area. No possibly as a minimal cane.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

11am is out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101453.shtml

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:07 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Quote:

Correct..Landfall still in the Mobile area. No possibly as a minimal cane.




Is that "No possibly" or "NOW possibly" ???


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:08 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

Well now i am under hurricane watch....interesting the "center" reformed a little more north than forcasted.....should move the track a little to the.... i would say to the al/fl line atleast....and i think she should slow down justa little before landfall (forward speed)


also appears in morning sat that the storms to the east are trying to start to wrap around the center


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:10 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

That is now..

Center formed a little north, but not much and they didn't change the forecast that much either. Still predicting landfall around Mobile.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:11 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Worst of the weather, despite the landfall point, will be felt across points to the east of where the storm makes landfall -- i.e. Florida. There's not a lot, save for dissipation or a strong jog west, to change that, considering the rainfall bands making their way across nearly the entire state this morning. With the landfall point largely unchanged near Mobile/the MS-AL border, it's going to be from the FL-AL border east to near Marianna/Apalachicola that sees a lot of heavy rain with this storm through Sunday.

There's more of my thoughts on the front page now, in the blog below the main article.


Jenny
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:12 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

A little to the What???? don't leave us hanging

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:12 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

Many models def inched closer to 84W since last run http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:13 AM
Re: Is this what I am seeing?

Should move the track in which direction? You didn't finish the thought. I'm in Palm Harbor for a while and wonder what our weather will be like. It has been drizzly and overcast and windy all morning. I'm going to Inverness in the morning and wonder if I should just stay home. What to do?

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:14 AM
arlene is strengthening

the LLC is starting to become overcast, with the cloud wrapping around as well. this storm is getting interesting.

could easily be a minimal hurricane...even a two, maybe?.....not wishcasting..just trying to examine the possiblities...


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:14 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

From the 11:00:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO ST MARKS FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ALSO AT 11 AM ...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA ...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

So...MB...that's "now" and not "no".

i may win that bet with jason yet

Don't count on it.....JK


cyclone_head
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:26 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

LI Phil,
You may be getting those same warnings up in your neck of the woods by Tuesday next week. Did you run the animated models?

Rick


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:27 AM
Flood Watches Extended in Florida

In case anyone missed this, the NWS has now included the Tampa Bay area under a flood watch until tomorrow night. 3-5" can be expected with a potential for locally heavier amounts in some areas.
Remember...be careful not to drive over flooded roadways: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
I'm thinking that this storm may have more of an impact on Florida than previously thought by the NHC.
BayNews9 is still reporting on the 8:00am advisory. ACK!
I'm sorry...but this continued N movement with a "gradual turn to the NNW in the next 24 hours" is starting to peeve me. If it's moving at 13 mph to the N right now it could be closer to Tampa in 4-5 hours than it should have been had it been on the NW track that it was supposed to be on.
Okay, got that off my chest. Now it will probably begin to turn to the NW since I vented.


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:29 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Someone posted last year a sat that was up to the minute. Could you please post that sat again. Thanks.

mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:34 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Quote:

From the 11:00:


So...MB...that's "now" and not "no".

i may win that bet with jason yet






Yeah,,,,, I was afraid of that !


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:39 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

There are no "up to the minute" sats...sometimes NWS will run a Super Rapid Scan mode that gives one minute imagery updates (but with some lag), but there are not running SRO for Arlene. There is a link to the RAMSIS page at the bottom of the main page where rapid scan loops are displayed.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:41 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Thanks..These 15 minute delays are killing me.

What are your thoughts. Still pretty much in line with the NHC?

That center sure looks west of 85 to me. Nuch much different I know.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:42 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Just want to post a few quick points here. Everything that most of us mets or future mets have said with Arlene has happend. She has strengthned in the se GOM, still dry air on its sw side, ( as said was going to be back 3 days ago) and a possibility of her making it near hurricane strength at landfall. My forcast still stands at a Panhandle hit. Most of the worst of the weather will be from near the center and to the east of the system. This is typical in GOM storms of this status.
On a quick model note: Consistance is a key to a good model, but sometimes the model on each storm will perform different. Currently if you look over the last 6-8 runs, the BAMM has been most consistant. The 12z models right now coming out already have Arlene alittle too far to the west near 85.5 (matters which model) by 8pm tonight. That wont happen unless she moves NW now. Anyways I agree a track simular to the BAMM but alittle to the west.Again its going to be the weather near the center and to its east will be the main factor. Pressure should continue to drop into the evening. scottsvb


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:44 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

is this a surface obs near the center?
what's the obs?

looks to say pressure 1002
winds nw at 40?


AgentB
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

I've been watching the sat loops for a little while now, and it looks to me like she's tracked a little more W than N over the last few frames. Though, she's still so disorganized it's hard to see any definite movements. Like had been stated previously though, a stronger/more organized storm would probably track more north and landfall would shift a bit east. A less organized one and the track would be more to the west.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:45 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Per the sat I see the overall 'vortex' North of western Cuba heading northerly. It appears to have started 'racing ' directly northward.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM
recon info

Does anyone know when recon is expected to check this storm out again? Im curious to see the new pressure readings...thanks

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:48 AM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Look how much NHC has changed model over the last (BRIGHT RED) http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:52 AM
Re: recon info

Storm: Storm ARLENE: Observed By AF #305
Storm #01 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 56KT (64.4mph 103.7km/h) In E Quadrant At 07:37 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 50.4KT (58.0mph 93.3km/h) * (Report Time: 10/1146 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 22.2N 85.0W 012 KT (13.8MPH 22.2km/h) [10:41:00Z to 10:55:10Z ]
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 23.5N 83.7W 042 KT (48.3MPH 77.8km/h) [11:04:40Z to 11:22:20Z

Part of recon data, not all


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 11:55 AM
Re: recon info

The storm appears to be enhancing in the NW quadrant. Still, it seems to be too close to Florida to allow it to strengthen much if it races through the gulf. But, anything can happen to change the scenario.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:02 PM
Re: recon info

Too close to florida to strengthn much you say? Remember Charley last year,, about 100 miles further to the east. Went from 115 to 145mph in 6 hrs? I could be off a tad or not. I sound like Yoda,,hehehe.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:06 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

You mean that last bright red line is where they expect landfall?

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM
Re: recon info

But Charlie, as I recall, was a mature storm when it entered the gulf; didn't appear as ragged as Arlene. Remember also that Arlene is handicapped in the SW quadrant- nada. There is no 'enclosure' and may become less viable with landmass interaction.

FlaRebel
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:07 PM
Back for Another Season

And it looks like we could get the worst of this one!!! So much for golf this weekend!

Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:09 PM
possibilities

probably will be between strong tropical storm and weak hurricane...

however....what is interesting about these storms is their unpredictability. I love going out on a limb and predicting the worst. Not sure why....maybe it goes back
to my childhood. probably need therapy...ha!

think it could still blossom a little...appears to be wrapping around itself...we all know what the GOM can do...

what are the potentials...given the SST's, and the wind shear....and the dry air to the west?...

the dry air is backing off a little...and it appears to me the storm is starting to get it's act together....

we shall see....

let's have fun and make predictions...

mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM
Re: Hurricane Watches and TS Warnings at 1100

Just the track in general as well as Landfall, and if we all don't have enough to talk about. There are 2 tropical waves over the Atlantic Basin. One tropical wave located near the 35/36 west line and 15 north moving west at 10-15 knots; no deep convection is associated with this system. A large wave is along the 74/75 west line with the extreme north portion extending over Haiti. The wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots. There is numerous strong convection associated with this system over northwestern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:10 PM
Re: recon info

Your right but everything leads us to believe that she can make it up to hurricane strength in the next 12 -24hrs. She always had the dry air to her w and shes been holding her own. Her center was broad with many vortexs rotating inside. Pretty much she is alot healthier then 12hrs ago.

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Back for Another Season

Any idea when she is going to move farther to the West?? I mean, it looks like she is right off the W. Coast of FL. We honestly can't take any more rain. As Colleen can probably agree with me on this, the road have sitting water in them already. I can't even begin to think of what one-two more days of heavy consistant rain is going to do.

Anyone watch Fox News? They make it sound like this is the end of the world. They are so darn dramatic when they show coverage of the storm. I have no choice that is the channel that is on in my face here at work, but give me a break.

I do wonder how much stronger she will become before making landfall. I didn't think she would be more than just a rain maker but I might have been wrong


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:12 PM
Re: possibilities

Tampa would be horrified with that prediction; I'm betting on Apalachicola as a strong TS.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:13 PM
Re: possibilities

I will stick with my prediction that I made at the begining of the week Pascagoula MS 80 mph

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:14 PM
Re: possibilities

No reason to change prediction. This storm has behaved nearly exactly as expected. MS/AL border as a cat 1.

SkeetoBiteAdministrator
(Master of Maps)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM
Re: possibilities

Quote:


mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change




What the.....?! Watch out Colleen...LOL


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:16 PM
Re: possibilities

Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

Hahaha, ROBIM!

I've been staring at loops for so long and I still can't figure out where the center is. One loop it looks like it's headed due north, another loop looks like might have just crossed 85.

And another loop, all I see is a big red/purple blob headed towards the west coast of Florida...closer to the coastline than I would like.
Can anyone tell me what the heck where the center actually IS? Is it a jog to the west? Heading North still?
I'm throwing in the towel on this one!


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:19 PM
Re: possibilities

I believe it may be either on 85 or just crossed over it. It is still fairly broad, so it depends on where in the center you decide to call it.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:21 PM
Re: possibilities

Don't worry, Skeetobite...Rick's just stirring me up, getting me lighten up! Apparantly, I look good dressed in the Cone of Death.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM
Re: possibilities

i been watching the lastest vis, and i think she just threw out another swirl in the last few hours and looks like she is trying to get another center up under the convection to the ene of the center. Storms fired up this morning to ene of center but now have weakened, cloud tops have flattened and appears she is up to something now....holding her own. I just have a hard time thinking the dry air over on the west side of her will weaken enough for to much more strengthening, but the ships model calls for it, so will see. Then again its JUNE in the GOM...will have to see

GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative scroll down and check out the Goes East St. Rel...appears that the RSO will stay with severe weather today in plains


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:22 PM
watch the visible loop

if you look at a high definition visible loop...you can see the center clearly, and also see CDO clouds head somewhat circular closer to the center...kinda wrapping around itself......

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:26 PM
Re: possibilities

Shift everything a little to the east folks.Here in Ft Laud winds are up as is the rain.Someone already died at south beach.Very rough surf.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:27 PM
Re: possibilities

The center is more or less a conglamoration of all of the little vortices spinning about...probably three in total, one that has been really visible on the SW side of the storm this morning. The broad center is probably just east of 85W and just south on 25 N. If one of them could ever take over or they converge into one true center, we could see some development of the storm. Otherwise, in a weaker state it will remain.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:28 PM
Re: possibilities

That center is too broad to evolve into a hurricane; unless storms fire up in the SW quadrant and the vortex decreases in size; then, I agree it would have a good shot at hurricane 1 status.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:35 PM
Re: possibilities

I omitted so many frames I only had 1 to look at

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM
Re: possibilities

Hard to believe it is only June 10th,and we already have a death due to a tropical system.Flood watch extended to Sat morn.Gust 34mph from the ESE

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:36 PM
Re: possibilities

latest vis....just south of 25 sat vis

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM
Re: possibilities

Watching cloud patterns off the Gulf for sometime now I think it is very likely it could sway more easterly and suprise us.

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:41 PM
Re: possibilities

Yes...I believe the one at 25/85 appears to be taking over and moving NNW to NW. Looks to be wrapping around nicely as well.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:45 PM
death

Quote:

Hard to believe it is only June 10th,and we already have a death due to a tropical system.Flood watch extended to Sat morn.Gust 34mph from the ESE




hmmm...last year in MAY we had over 3,000 dead in haiti in a storm NHC chose not classify...


Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:46 PM
Re: possibilities

With all this talk about multiple centers and vorticies...Take a look at the 06z GFDL. It so far has been one of the only models to show this more northerly path into the southern gulf...Plus it shows about 3 little centers inside one larger area of low pressure. I believe the GFDL may actaully have a good handle on this system now. Everyone should take a look. Its more or less exactly what is taking place. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:51 PM
Re: death

look at floater and it looks like she is trying the get the center under the storms to the ene. the swirl that was visible this morning was thrown out toward the sw and looks to have faded.

trying to get her act together, but will the dry air to the west let her?


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:52 PM
Re: possibilities

Quote:

mine...
Lakeland, Fl...120 mph max winds

subject to change




Oh Rick...you predicted a Cat 5 when I lived in Mobile now this? Are you stalking me?...just kidding

I hope your wrong though!..


jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:55 PM
Re: possibilities

Clark/jason

Do you guys see the center at 25/85 taking over right now. It sure looks that way. If it is, then it appears to have started moving NNW/NW.


Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:55 PM
Re: death

That dry air should be modifying some soon. Im not concerned with the dry air. Im worried about shear. So far in her life, the shear hasnt let her develop storms over her center. If all of a sudden before landfall she decides to flare-up, which Im thinking she will, we may a minimal cat 1 on our hands. I say minimal, not WEAK because I dont believe any hurricane is weak.

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 12:58 PM
Re: death

From that view Arlene does appear to be moving N-NW afterall.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:02 PM
Re: possibilities

just saw that at 1600 a ship
WAAH S 1600 24.90n -84.80w distance from arlene 54nm hdg 6 wind dir. 100 wnd sped. 31.1 kts pressure 29.44 ptdy in-0.22 air temp 79.7 water temp 86.0 - visb. 6.2 -


heres link heres link


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:03 PM
huh??

Ugggg.... Hey what's all this fuss about... is there something in the GOM this morning? hehe

First Hurricane watch of the season and I'm in it.... hopefully this will be our swan song this year..

Predicted a couple of days ago between Ocean Spring and Pascagoula.... still looks right to me give or take a few miles... min Cat 1 certainly NOT out of the question, but FL panhandle will get the worst of it...


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:04 PM
Re: possibilities

Looks to be developing a tad bit to the WSW of (the center?)

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:11 PM
Re: could it be?

i think she is getting some storms to fire now on nw side!

new storms?


Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:23 PM
Re: could it be?

Storm Hunter, I checked out that ship report and I guess its true. The center is just about on top of it. 996/997mb is what its reporting. Very interesting!

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:26 PM
Re: could it be?

sounds reasonable to me too... as Arlene's overall signature improves you'd think there would be a corresponding drop in pressure.... guess well find out for sure from recon

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:33 PM
Re: could it be?

I'm interested to see this next advisory...I have lost the center again.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:34 PM
TS winds

Gainesville received 'only' TS storm force winds during Frances and Jeanne, but that was enough to create 25 years worth of yard waste in one month. We lost a LOT of trees and many people went without power for up to a week or even longer. Unless it's a weak TS, I wouldn't take it too lightly. I'm assuming that if the storm heads nearly straight N, as some models have predicted, that Gainesville could see more winds of at least 30 mph with stronger gusts. I guess that also depends on how much the storm strengthens/expands in the next several hours (lots of IFs.)

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:37 PM
Re: could it be?

that ship is the best recon in the storm, maybe someone requested that they head right through it to their next destination, not a good choice, but hey thankz for the reports! I am trying to find out what kind of ship it is. Will post if i find out.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:38 PM
Re: could it be?

If I am looking at the visibles correctly, it appears to me that the llc is right on the 85 line.
I, too, am anxious to see the next advisory. It may be moving more NNW now.
The skies are getting darker and heavier and so is the air.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:45 PM
Re: could it be?

If that ship is right near the center, the water temperature is listed as a very healthy 86 degrees.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:46 PM
Re: could it be?

Hope it's a big ship, that's for sure! Looking at the last visibles on TV, the met pointed to the center and moved his finger in almost a due N movement. Who the heck knows what it's gonna do? ACK. C'mon already with the 2pm!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:47 PM
Re: could it be?

think center is now just north of 25n and close to 85w......between thunderstorms that are now on both sides of center. some storms fired up in last two hours on nnw side and are starting to wrap around center.
take a look at sat see the storms?

will not be long until storm passes very close to the bouy just nw of her!


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:49 PM
Re: could it be?

I agree Colleen, also notice there is convection starting to fire up on the west side of the center... which is a first... best I can determine is the center is around 25.2 and 85.1.... but the main feature is the convection starting up on the nw and west side of the center... albeit not much, there had been none throughout the history of storm... NNW looks about right for motion...

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:51 PM
Re: could it be?

Agree completely. Looks to be a Pensacola hit now unless there is a NW turn. NNW looks good to me.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:52 PM
Tornados?

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
145 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

TORNADO WATCH 450 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

FLC011-015-021-043-051-071-086-087-099-110300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0450.050610T1745Z-050611T0300Z/

FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BROWARD CHARLOTTE COLLIER
GLADES HENDRY LEE
MIAMI-DADE MONROE PALM BEACH


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:56 PM
Re: could it be?

all depends on degees of NNW it takes, a true NNW would put it around 87.5 or so... wobble here or there, new center refomation, either could make the difference in a MS/AL line hit or a AL/FL hit... regardless Pensacola will probably get the brunt of it...

jth
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:59 PM
Re: could it be?

25.0 and 85.0........Are we missing something here. Sure looks a lot farther north to me.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Tornados?

it going to be fun knowing and having eglin radar and mobile level II. So when she gets close it going to look pretty kewl. The panhandle first live look at a TS and its feed bands over head. WJHG has the VIPIR with level II, the only station in panhandle

just heard new update... 25n 85 west...same speed i think....north at 13


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:01 PM
Re: could it be?

2:00 pm out
North at 13
997 mb 60 mph
still expect slow NNW turn


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM
Re: Tornados?

First real squall coming through here right now. Torrential rain and 25-30 mph gusts. A quarter inch of rain in 5 minutes and still pouring. Now, the tornado watch too.

Droop31
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:04 PM
Re: could it be?

Like Frank P said, it all depends on the degree of NNW it takes. As we well know, TS and Hurricanes dont follow straight lines. Oh and thanks for the kind thoughts Frank P! I'll be sure to send a few nice squalls your way OK?

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:07 PM
Re: could it be?

pressure based on ship report 2 hrs ago, if i remember correctly .....it takes a few hours from when pressure drops to see an increase in winds? the storms on wnw side are getting bigger and starting to warp around i think towards the south.

thunderstorms on the left side of center?


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:08 PM
Re: could it be?

Never have gottien a handle on models. Why do most of them have a NE recurve, but the official track is to IN?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_01.gif


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:09 PM
Re: could it be?

anything for the great state of Florida Droop... hey we are getting our first good effects of Arlene as I type... nice squall line coming thru Biloxi at the moment.... winds kicking up to at least 20-25k with some white caps in the gulf...

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:13 PM
Re: could it be?

Yeah, Lakeland is going to get a direct hit with 120 mph winds. I agree....when pigs fly.

We got a real good rain ban earlier just about 11 am and the wind in the past hour has picked up a bit. Just cloudy no rain as of right now. The radar didn't look too hopeful for any sun today, so we are keeping the umbrellas ready. I may venture out in an hour or so for ice cream break for the office, unless it starts raining again.


mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:15 PM
Re: could it be?

Anyone look at the nogaps gfs models lately. Predicting that after landfall will curve ne exit into atlantic on ne coastline of us and possibly intensify????

I know its too early to tell and that might be unheard of but what do u all think. Even if it never hits land again. this is based on 144hr models


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM
Re: could it be?

They say the worst for us here will be between 2-8pm today.Highest gust is still 34mph.On and off rain.And,oh yea,a tornado watch.

Londovir
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:17 PM
Re: could it be?

I'll stick with what I said on the chat last night - I'm saying Cat. 1 (real weak, barely) for a brief time in GOM, and then it'll wussie out and return to TS status for landfall. I didn't call where, but I'll say somewhere between Pensacola and Appalachicola.

Now, back to work on the hurricane program. ;-)


Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:31 PM
Re: could it be?

convection now in all quadrants but south
expect to see 65 mph by 5pm today

also center visible on radar
west of Naples and south of Tallahassee

at this rate i expect landfall between Cedar Key and Panama City


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:32 PM
Re: could it be?

mysticalmooons -- it is picking up on the remnant center going out into the Atlantic and developing as a midlatitude (extratropical cyclone). However, it is likely underestimating the current intensity of the tropical cyclone -- the global models never do well with them -- thus giving the impression of intensification in the NE US.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:37 PM
Re: could it be?

Yeah its very interesting on the exact position on where they want to put the center. Radar shows the center fixing itself more N near 26.2 right now moving almost due N. If this does infact become the true center, then they might adjust the warning areas to the east. Still dont look like anylandfall S of Cedarkey but remember this is mainly a rain maker with quick spawned tornados. Pressure of 997mb coordinates to 55-60mph. Canes are usually near 987 or 988mb.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:54 PM
Re: could it be?

Do not think that is the center. Appears on Sat loops that center is under the new small cluster of storms that formed just west of 85 and is moving NNW.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:55 PM
Re: could it be?

Looks to me like the dry air to the west is starting to hurt Arlene.And she is running out of room.I think the central penisula is the target.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:56 PM
Re: huh??

Quote:

Predicted a couple of days ago between Ocean Spring and Pascagoula.... still looks right to me give or take a few miles... min Cat 1 certainly NOT out of the question, but FL panhandle will get the worst of it...




Funny.. June 1st here I said in message #35983:

Quote:

not being an avid weatherperson by any means, it seems the tropical weather that is hammering Florida might soon be met up with the low over New Orleans.. is there any possible way this could flare up?

Sure does seem like the front end of Charley right now in Florida.




While I was looking north for the answer, I should have been looking south it seems. It was just too tropical the week around the 1st of June here for it to be a coincidence. But, nobody listened.


RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM
Re: could it be?

Clark - what would be your take for central Florida into the night? Will the cooling of the day backoff the tornado type of activity we are seeing in south Florida or do you think it possibly could continue through the night here?

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 02:59 PM
Re: could it be?

oh ok, lol

So much to learn so little time.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:01 PM
Re: could it be?

looking at south florida radar..... looks like there's a rotating thunderstorm just east of key largo.... saw early the waterspout in north keys
radar south florida


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:03 PM
Re: could it be?

MikeG- found it pretty kewl when you turn on the lat/lon at bottom, gives a better fix on storms.... turn on lat/lon Check the box

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:10 PM
First Real Band

That first real rain band that came through here is still holding together as it now moves NW from Lake Okeechobee to Sarasota. Sebring, Lakeland and Tampa will be next.

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:11 PM
Taking a moment...

Just want to take a moment to welcome all of our unregistered users to CFHC...we hope that you find all the information you need and you are welcome to post whatever questions you might have. We'd also like to invite you to become a registered user as well, you get a few more features and can do a few more things. Registration is competely free, and we don't Spam or Spyware you at all.

Again welcome to CFHC, and let us know how we can serve you better.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:14 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

JH

What are your thoughts.

The bouy nearest the storm had a very significant pressure drop in the past hour and is reporting an east wind. It appears Arlene may be moving more NNW to NW in the last hour and is now around 85.5 per bouy report and sat pics.

What are you thinking?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:16 PM
Re: could it be?

The only affects for the west central Florida area will be on and showers with 15 -20 knot winds. I don't foresee anything more then that.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

anyway this think could get up to cat 2 strenghth?

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:19 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

not likely, but if the pressure is indeed dropping it may make it up to minimal hurricane strength before landfall

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:19 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

check out the ship 3FPS9

at 1800 winds of 58.1kts
143 from center of arlene
reports via ndbc


also note that the ships WAAH and C6FM5 were within 3 miles of each other at 1800.....strange? and only 53-56miles form center of storm...both had pressure of 29.49 and look to have reported winds out of south


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:20 PM
My Thinking...

My thinking is unchanged in the overview...I still think a Mobile-ish landfall as a Strong TS looks pretty good...and if there has to be an adjustment then it would have to be to the east, but not radically so. I have faith that the NW turn will happen, if it hasn't already begun. Arlene is trying to organize, but as Clark accurately described this morning, the core structure is still somewhat disjointed and rough...if it firms up a bit and develops a coherent center, then we could see a minimal Cat 1 prior to landfall, but I think we do see some weakening prior to landfall as well.

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:28 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

Quote:

The bouy nearest the storm had a very significant pressure drop in the past hour and is reporting an east wind. It appears Arlene may be moving more NNW to NW in the last hour and is now around 85.5 per bouy report and sat pics.





I, too, love the bouys and have been watching this guy all day... I wanted to add to your post by putting the links to the pressure plot for this particular bouy as it is totally interesting!

Current pressure is 29.56 in Hg = 1001 mb... Still not the lowest, but getting there...

Anyone know of any sat plots that show where these silly bouys are located? I drew them on a tracking map, but, it would be nice to see them with the sat images to get a better feel for how they relate to the storm center.

Pressure:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=42003&meas=pres&uom=E


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:30 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

Maybe someone can let me know for sure but I just heard that a tornado warning just went up for Central Fl area....Polk, Highlands, etc.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:32 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

near what city....here's tampa radar

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/tbw.html


Ruffsmom
(Registered User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:33 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE PLACID BY 300 PM EDT.
ZOLFO SPRINGS BY 340 PM EDT.
ONA BY 345 PM EDT.


VolusiaMike
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:36 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

- EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE PLACID BY 300 PM EDT.
ZOLFO SPRINGS BY 340 PM EDT.
ONA BY 345 PM EDT.


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:36 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE PLACID BY 300 PM EDT.
ZOLFO SPRINGS BY 340 PM EDT.
ONA BY 345 PM EDT.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.
Crap - - here we go!!!!!!

&&

LAT...LON 2698 8128 2716 8107 2760 8184 2739 8201


Jax Chris
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:38 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

Quote:

Maybe someone can let me know for sure but I just heard that a tornado warning just went up for Central Fl area....Polk, Highlands, etc.




The be-all and end-all for watches, warning, etc. is at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/ . Text advisories for Tornado Warning (link off the page above) at http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/us/tornado.html.

Quick answer for you:
Quote:

WFUS52 KTBW 101901
TORTBW
FLC027-049-055-101945-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0009.050610T1901Z-050610T1945Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 345 PM EDT

* AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE PLACID BY 300 PM EDT.
ZOLFO SPRINGS BY 340 PM EDT.
ONA BY 345 PM EDT.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.


&&

LAT...LON 2698 8128 2716 8107 2760 8184 2739 8201

$$

13





Some other Florida warnings in there, but I think this is the one you're looking for.

Chris


Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:42 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

Guesss a lot of people are looking out for you darlin

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:47 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

just fired up the tampa radar, (GRlevel 3) but my radar program sayes it down....going to check the status of radar, but that early link i posted, which uses the new ridge web site is the best web based place to see storms. it will pop up on the image the storm and highlight the storm that is causing such a warning... remember though it's over the internet, so times there may be delays.... stay tuned to local media for latest or weather radio

Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:51 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

Wow, thanks guys/girls. My parents are in Lake Placid too bad I just got this message. I am a few minutes late but I just beeped her on the radio to let her know to be careful. She was unaware that it was even bad outside...imagine that. She was probably busy playing slots on the internet...kidding.

FYI, I am in Winter Haven so, if you get any information for that area so keep me updated !!! Thanks!

Katie


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:51 PM
Satellite & Winds

Please use the following link: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds.html

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:54 PM
Re: Taking a moment...

well radar is up, just having time getting data from noaa

just found out the elgin radar is being switced over to tropical status quo when things get active....

NOUS62 KTAE 101230
FTMEVX
Message Date: Jun 10 2005 12:30:34
THE CHANGES THAT ROC/TPC RECOMMENDED FOR TROPICAL OPERATION HAVE BEEN MADE TO TH
E RADAR. THE STP HAS BEEN RESET BUT THE RADAR HAS NOT BEEN PLACED IN TROPICAL Z/
R YET. WILL WAIT THE CORE OR THE STORM GETS CLOSER AND A MORE STRATIFORM TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. KMOB 88B CONTROL


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 03:56 PM
Re: could it be?

RedingtonBeachGuy: central Florida is in for a fair amount of rain overnight. The threat for tornadoes will persist through the night, however, as these are not driven by daytime heating -- instead, they are driven by the dynamics, or how the wind changes direction with height as well as locally near the surface. That's just a factor of the hurricane being there, really.

Rain will be the biggest factor, yes, but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.


HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:02 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Looks like they will bump it up to 70mph at 4pm

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:05 PM
Bouy Pressure/Winds

New bouy data for 42003... pressure there still dropping, now at 29.51 in Hg = 999ish mb. Winds from the NE at 29.1 kts.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:08 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

appears to be a lot of ships out in the storm

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/281.jpg
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/283.jpg

great for recon*** next set of ships appear to be on the wnw side...far way


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:12 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Quote:

appears to be a lot of ships out in the storm




I'm guessing the little wind thingies represent where the ships are?


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:15 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

should be....one of them is a bouy 42003

click the same picture here to see movement, scroll down on left


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:18 PM
Re: The Arlene Situation

#29 Published Friday June 10, 2005 at 2:15 pm EDT

As of 2:00 pm EDT T.S. Arlene is moving due north at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. This northerly course is a little to the right of the official NHC forecast track and is what I was alluding too yesterday while discussing the weakening of the Bermuda high pressure ridge over and east of Florida.

She is still disorganized with most of the convection E-NE of the low level center, thanks to continued SSW wind shear in association with the weakening mid level trough in the western Gulf Of Mexico region. Even with continued wind shearing she still has managed to strengthen some and could still reach minimal category 1 status before landfall. However I think she will fall just short of a hurricane with 70 mph sustained winds. What's 5 mph though. While a course turn to the NNW with a landfall near Mobile Bay sometime late on Saturday June, 11, 2005 per the official NHC forecast track is still very possible, I think that a landfall near Pensacola tomorrow evening is also increasingly possible.

Tropical storm force wind gusts, a small storm surge, heavy rainfall and destructive tornadoes (due to extra-tropical characteristics) are possible along the coast from Key West to Panama City and probable from Pensacola to Mobile Bay during the Friday-Saturday 06/10-11/05 period. Once inland flooding rains could occur across the deep south and Tennessee Valley regions.

And speaking of tornadoes they are occurring in the Florida Keys region northward along the west coast to the southern Tampa Bay region as I type.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:22 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

I found it, but had to go through the colostate.edu main site to get there.... This is what I was looking for earlier, since it very much helps to see where the bouys are with respect to the storm. Only thing, the loop looks kind of freaky, since it keeps moving around....

Thanks!


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:25 PM
Re: My Thinking...

I'm inclined to agree with you today. I took a long look at the upper air environment, and I don't see the ridge building in to the SE USA just yet. The 500 mb UAA at 12Z showed no height rises at all. Looking at the satellite; which chasing all those small vortices can drive you to drink; there are a few of them embedded in the overall circulation. I do note the shear is lessening as clouds are tending more to the W and SW around the low level center, but I did find one ominous sign at that's NOAA buoy 42003, just to the NW of the center. Pressure as dropped rather rapidly to 999 mbs now, but a closer look at visible satellite shows a small vorticy in the vicinty and the buoy is indicating an E; not NE winds; maybe a bubble ridge or wake from a near by thunderstorm; difficult to say at the moment. Disjiointed systems can become hurricanes, but minimal. The UL trough is still entraining dry air into her and there is considerable subsidence to her west, though the winds do appear to be backening; which will help in sustaining some strengthening if they continue to backen as she moves N. I think if Arlene can get her center up under the convection; she's in business, o/w CAT1 is plausible. 10/2023Z

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:26 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

yeah the storm keeps moving, so the sat image keeps up with storm, also as i write this NOAA9 just sent in a drop report and AF302 are in the storm. will post info when decoded!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:29 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Clark is there any possibility that the storm could stall over the eastern GOMEX?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:32 PM
Re: My Thinking...

If high pressure were building east to Florida, wouldn't the bouy 120 miles east of Port Canaveral have a pressure increase instead of a pressure decrease? They are down .04 in pressure in the last hour and although just slightly below 24 hours ago.
Or is the high pressure in the upper atmosphere?


Katie
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:48 PM
Re: My Thinking...

I hope everyone on the Gulf Coast has a safe weekend. I am out of here for the weekend. If I get my computer up and working this weekend, I will check in. But, I have Madison's b-day party tomorrow so I am sure I will be busy with that!

Be safe and talk to you Monday if not sooner.

Katie


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:49 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Arlene is moving at a nice clip..N-NW. I do not see any climatic reasons why she should stall.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

At 5pm:

At 5 PM...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
eastward along the northern Gulf Coast from St Marks Florida to
Steinhatchee river Florida...and the Hurricane Watch has been
extended eastward to Indian Pass Florida.


65 mph, 997

HU


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:56 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

5PM is out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/102042.shtml

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jun 10 2005 04:57 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

landfall pensacola!

CarolinaGurl
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:07 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Jim Cantore is in Pensacola, that cinches it for me!!!!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:11 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

land fall prediction... 50 miles north of tampa

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

well here in Riverview, FLorida outside of Tampa, the wind gusts are only at 14 mph...and the rain is coming and going...how bout you others?

Littlebit
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:14 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Same weather in Plant City as in Riverview.

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:15 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Quote:

Jim Cantore is in Pensacola, that cinches it for me!!!!!




That means Pensacola is safe and will not get hit . Cantori deflects storms


mbfly
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Sunny and beautiful here in Mobile !! Personally, I'm thinking P'cola and east is going to get the worst of it, and we're just going to get a little rain.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:21 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

I am at work in Clearwater, FL and it is quite windy and rainy. Probably make for a nasty commute home(Palm Harbor). I love to read all the good posts and consider it a must to check in all during the day. I can't even hardly get any work done. It is just now pouring buckets of rain as I'm writing.

Kandi


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 05:54 PM
My predicition stays :)

Well i am still sticking to what i said when this thing first became classified - landfall near or just east of Mobile, AL, with sustained winds of 70 - 80 mph - strong TS / weak Cat 1.

Satellite imagery seems to show that she really is trying to get herself together, but the core remains very disorganised, with multiple LLC's still evident on the visible imagery. If only the core consolidated we could see this get stronger, stronger than currently forecast. Expect to see official Hurricane Warnings up within the next 6 to 12 hours.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:12 PM
Re: The Arlene Situation

#30 Published Friday June 10, 2005 at 6:00 pm EDT

At 5:00 pm EDT T.S. Arlene is now moving slightly west of north at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. The NHC has now brought it's official track further east with a landfall near Pensacola, in line with my forecast. Remember that this tropical cyclone is large and disorganized and sustained tropical storm force winds with gusts to hurricane force will impact much of the Florida Panhandle coast tomorrow from about Apalachicola westward, well in advance of the cyclone center landfall.

Also as I've mentioned repeatedly flooding rainfall, a small storm surge and tornadoes are likely east of the landfall location.

Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net

NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249

Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm


Ronn
(User)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:15 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Here in Pinellas County, winds have been gusting to about 35mph in occasional rain squalls. Just wet and breezy. A good warm up for the rest of the season.

Rabbit
(Weather Master)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:19 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

anyone who can answer

what are the chances of Arlene reaching hurricane status before landfall?


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:21 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Center is now clearly evident on sat pick. She is south of all of the action, but some storms firing near center now. Clearly moving NNW. I will stick with a minimal cane and MS/AL border.

Littlebit
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:24 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

According to Paul Dellegatto at Fox 13 news, about a 60% chance of Arlene becoming a minimal hurricane. Hope this helps.

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 06:52 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Other than the tornado our county had this afternoon, it has been very mild here. It is raining.

Only thing worth mentioning is the rain is falling sideways. That became all too familiar last season. I had actually forgotten about it til today.


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:14 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

i know what u mean earlier it was raining totally sideways...had to hold umbrella to the side of me....lol....oh well thats florida weather i guess....

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:18 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Rabbit -- 50/50 right now. Could see it reach hurricane intensity in the next 12hr but weaken right before land with the cooler shelf waters. No telling either way, really, but it's got a shot.

WeatherNLU
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:33 PM
Re: Satellite & Winds

Clark, what up man? How are things going over there at FSU? Tell Travis I said what up, I haven't talked to him in a couple of weeks.

As far as Arlene goes, I agree it's probably 50/50 at this point. It sure looked like earlier in the day that she would get there as they were bumping the winds up with every advisory. The presentation of the storm is surely looking much better this afternoon, so I could see Arlene hitting the 75 mark rather easily if this continues. The biggest hinderance towards Arlene becoming a cane at this point is probably the forward motion (time).


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 07:58 PM
New Vortex...big pressure drop...

301
URNT12 KNHC 102345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 10/2322Z
B. 26 DEG 32 MIN N
C. 85 DEG 33 MIN W
D. 850 MB 1366 M
E. 55 KT
F. 030 DEG 52 NM
G. 105 DEG 75 KT
H. 992 MB
I. 22 C/ 1413 M
J. 22 C/ 1409M
K. 19 C/ 26 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/2
P. NOAA3 0701A ARLENE OB
MAX FLT LVL WIND 75KTS NE QUAD 2307Z
MAX SFC WND FROM SFMR.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:01 PM
Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop...

Then, this is a Hurricane now?!?

wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jun 10 2005 08:06 PM
Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop...

Not as of the 7pm advisory...maybe by the 10pm (11pm EDT) package....

New Topic...Move it on over...


berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jun 11 2005 01:33 AM
Re: New Vortex...big pressure drop...

No..Arlene is not a hurricane as of this vortex message. The flight level winds are 75 kts; not the surface. They try an obtain a surface wind when they can; but most of the time it is extrapolated from winds at flight level; and depending on what FL is, depends on what percentage they lower it. Latest 11/0435Z message shows FL winds of 71 kts and they recorded a sfc wind of 57 kts; but 120NE of the center. I suspect if the center was under the convection they might have upgraded her to a CAT 1 storm; but she continues to be disjointed and convection tops have warmed considerably on past few satellite frames. What appears to be the low level center is well removed from it's upper level circulation.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jun 11 2005 02:14 AM
11/0615Z - Arlene, new center? - MCC movg due W

So many centers..and now at 11/0615Z, another possible new center and it's moving due West along 27.5N. Looks like 2 distinct centers, one devoid of Tstms, the other the new MCC moving due west inside a larger cyclonic envelope. I was about to write, I'm sticking with Mobile-Pensacola, but this has me scratching my head. I don't see anything in the upper air environment to change the NNW course towards the coast...the 200mb ridge has strengthened over FL and SE USA as her outflow indicates; but 850, 700 and 500, show continued slight weakening or neutral heights over past 24 hours. I can't imagine what the NHC boys are thinking now...so many centers; which one? Safe to say, this is a storm we don't concentrate on the center; the action is well away from the center at the moment with the exception of this new development.

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Jun 11 2005 04:06 AM
11/0800Z - Arlene Update - New center? MS/LA Landfall?

Latest RUC & satellite show Arlene may have finally gotten herself organized enough to indicate a possible new "eye"...though not a true eye, but a center. A MCC fired up and moved due W early this morning and clouds are now appearing to wrap themselves all the way around the newly developing center as of 08Z. Latest RUC confirms a NW movmt now; while GFS continues to pick up on mid level center developed from yesterdays premature analysis of a CDO. The 0435Z Vortex message verified the strongest winds were with this mid level circulation. The 0619Z message now shows max winds in NW quadrant; a change from earlier messages.


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