MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 03:16 AM |
New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Noon 16.June Update
The Recon flight for today has been cancelled, as the system is moving over land.
Right now there is nothing imminent for tropical development, and probably won't be much to watch until perhaps the weekend or next week.
Rain over the disturbance areas will likely still be heavy.
11:30AM 15.June Update
USAFR Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been tasked for recon flights in the Bay of Campeche on Thursday for a suspect area that has been showing up lately. Modelling has been vacillating on developing this system, but NHC obviously thinks it is important enough to monitor closely with recon. Will have further updates in the blogs later this afternoon...JK
6PM 13.June Update
The area in the western Caribbean seems to be dropping in pressure, and it's enough to consider it investigation area 92L by the weather services. Which means models will start to be ran on it. The Current thinking is that it will drift west northwestward, and perhaps north, more toward a cuban/bahama event than toward the US.
It is too early to tell if it will become Bret, but if it persists into tomorrow we may have a better idea. Aircraft recon is scheduled to check it out tomorrow. Still I think the overall chances for this to develop are quite low.
Is it really June?
Original Update
Early season Tropical Storm Arlene has come and gone, and we'd hope for a quiet rest of the month. But we've got a few more areas to watch, one is more likely than the other to develop, but still the June climatology goes against both of them.
The first area, North of the Leeward Islands, is fairly large, and extends quite a ways, it's a bit far north for this time of year, plus the associated upper level low is moving through rather hostile conditions for development.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-*-------------------]
In the Western Caribbean, not too far from where Arlene came from, is another area of disturbed weather. This is between Jamaica and South America. It's a little more possible because of how relaxed winds may become north of it as time progresses. Right now the winds are a bit more hostile for development to the north than where it sits now, but this will change. It would take a few days of persistence for me to really go for it.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----*----------------]
After the Arlene warm up, I'd rather not watch these. But it's a good idea to watch, even if the chances aren't all that great for these systems. Again, if this were August, the scale would probably be much further to the right. Time will tell this week.
Event Related links:
Animated Model plot for western Caribbean area (92L)
Animated Model plot for Bay of Campeche area (93L)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:06 AM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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the one in the sw caribbean... from what i can read on the ir2 tonight, i'll be interested what visibles look like in the morning. there's at least a broad trough in the area.
HF 0604z13june
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 10:06 AM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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i know IR isnt always the best to 'see' what's going on, but it does seem to show organization and a possible circulation with the disturbance midway between Jamaica and South America.
i'm talking swir. you can follow the faint gray low cloud movements in the trades fairly easily with it. -HF
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 12:42 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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We are working on another automated animation product and would like your feedback. This product is called "Channel Surfer".
For the Tech guys: This web based product automatically grabs real time satellite JPG images, converts to GIF, resizes, splits to frames, applies filters, animates and then propagates to file. While any user with the appropriate access permissions could generate these images on the fly, it is likely we will serve pre-made images to John Q.
This is an animation of 3 GOES channels. Visible, water vapor and IR4.
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 01:14 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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I don't really understand what I'm looking at (extreme weather newbie) but it is nice to see different views in one pic. Makes seeing what I DO understand easier. I like it!
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 01:16 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Great idea, love the various aspects, there is always something that can be picked from varying images, thanks for adding value!!!!
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: Channel Surfer
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Yes, I find these very interesting, it is what I look at at the NHC site. I like the animation.
Liz
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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1.Yes
2.No
3.Sure
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Hi Skeetobite-
1) Yes
2) No
3) Yes
Thank you for making this truly an exciting site.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes
You guys are truly amazing at what you do. Thank you for my experience being very educational.
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Quote:
We are working on another automated animation product and would like your feedback. This product is called "Channel Surfer".
For the Tech guys: This web based product automatically grabs real time satellite JPG images, converts to GIF, resizes, splits to frames, applies filters, animates and then propagates to file. While any user with the appropriate access permissions could generate these images on the fly, it is likely we will serve pre-made images to John Q.
This is an animation of 3 GOES channels. Visible, water vapor and IR4.
Image removed to save space.
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
Absolutely!!
Definitley Not!!
Most Assuredly!!
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Quote:Hi Skeeter, Don't we keep you busy enough with your map making?
1. Do you find value in this product?
2. Would you mind if a larger version resulted in a slower download time?
3. Would you want to see additional channels included?
To answer your questions as best I can:
1) Yes, but overlaying them sequentially is a bit confusing even if you get the overlay exact. Possibly better would be 2 or 4 related animations in a 'picture window' framed 2 or 4 with the ability to select a frame, click on it and have it expand to fill the screen. This way, we could examine all of the channels at once, Vis, WV, IR and IR colorized or even a floater instead of the IR colorized. THis would allow one to see the available animations, compare them and select the one that seems to convey the most information.
2) The initial 2x or 4x frame needent be larger necessarily, As a thumbnail, it would load rapidly and be very easy to expand as desire. This would keep overall bandwidth and screen space utilization at a minimum until the greater size/bandwidth is desired.
3) Three channels and maybe a floater thumbnail would be fine...you can expand by a 2nd set of thumbnails (such as the maps you make, and the HNC forecast animated similar to the one currently displayed here on the board. While the thumbnails *could* be animated, they wouldn't have to be on the thumbnail view, but the full size expansion should be. In fact, you could have a thumbnail 'teaser' to show what is available, a full screen 'thumbnail' expansion and a full screen single selection from the thumbnail.
Keep up the good work my friend.....
Richard
| javlin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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I could see a little mid-level circulation(15N75W) on VIS this morning.Looks like some more shear is moving in NW of the system.So I am thinking maybe 24-48 hrs if it is still there something might show maybe.
| Artsy Fartsy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 04:35 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Quote:
I could see a little mid-level circulation(15N75W) on VIS this morning.Looks like some more shear is moving in NW of the system.So I am thinking maybe 24-48 hrs if it is still there something might show maybe.
I see the same, and it seems as though there is a small area of convection right over it if you view the IR. The circulation seems to be fairly apparent as of 12:30pm today, but, I am still a noobie and not sure if this is what I need to be looking for in a potential system.
I also checked out the WV loop and the Bermuda High is forcing a lot of dry air into the western carribean, not sure how this can effect storm development.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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The local media here are now talking about this area.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:01 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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What you are seeing is cloudiness and showers associated with a weak surface trough of low pressure. It really has not become any better organized this morning. It is still possible however for slow developement over the next day or two as the surface trough is forecasted to move northwestward.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:27 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Skeetobite
1. Yes
2. No
3. Yes
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:53 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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1) yes
2) not at all
3) yes, if there is a toggle to turn the additional channels on/off
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 05:58 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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Of course, i think the item around 16N 75W looks more impressive than it is, but it's a mid-level feature... I know upper level lows only rarely develop into tropical features, but for a midlevel item... is it more common for the low pressure to 'drill down' to the surface?' I would imagine so, if for no other reason than it is closer to the surface than an ULL.
Maybe I'm crazy but it looks interesting...
-Mark
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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That's exactly how I see it, Mark. The mid level low will generate into something interesting in 2 days. Watch the models.
8-)
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 06:15 PM |
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Re: Birthday
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Hey there, based on the way the weekend weather went, I assume you were able to have some bouncing fun outdoors for the little one?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Birthday
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Taz - actually, we didn't.
Just before the party started we had some really nasty weather roll through so I just decided to set it up on the porch. It wasn't all that big and was a big help in that it wasn't wet to put it in her bedroom. The party was great - too bad her dad was there - I thought I was going to hang him. Seriously, why do some people feel the need to put down others in front of their friends and family? It doesn't make you look macho. Just like a clown. Anyway, thanks for asking though. She had a great time, if I ever knew how to post pictures on here, I would do it but, I can't even figure out how to resize my avitar correctly so, I am lost!
EDIT: Katie, PM Mike about posting attachments (do not do it in this forum) and i'm sorry but i had to edit a bit of your language regarding your ex...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 09:23 PM |
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Recon
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Recon is going out to the Central Caribbean tomorrow, if needed, according to TWO at 5:30pm. Do not see an invest yet.
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE.........ADDED
A. 14/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 14/1500Z
D. 16.0N 76.5W
E. 14/1330Z TO 15/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN FIXES AT 15/12Z IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS.
From MLB Discussion
"LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERSISTENCE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
GULF. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WILL EVENTUALLY WORK NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION...WITH
SOME SUGGESTION THAT A DISTINCT TROPICAL LOW COULD TAKE SHAPE
FROM WITHIN THE GENERAL LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/GYRE THAT HAS
BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN FOR SEVERAL WEEKS. "
Edited to add MLB AFD
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Recon
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A part of the AFD from Tally...
ALTHOUGH THE
JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE AS FAR SW
AS THE LAST COUPLE GFS RUNS HAVE INDICATED. THE 00Z VERSION OF THE
MODEL ACTUALLY SHOWS ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM BEING PULLED NWD BY
THIS LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF ON MON. LET'S HOPE THIS DOESN'T COME TO
PASS.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: Recon
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looks like a low is forming in caribbean just west of the conveciton
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: Recon
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I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00z GFS from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the GFS & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00z GFS run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.
If anything forms in the W. Carib, it'll likely be a threat to Cuba, the Bahamas, and Bermuda...and not one to Florida. It's gotta develop, first, and while shear tendencies are towards less shear, there's not a surface circulation...yet. Indications are that one may be forming on the western edge of the convection and there is support at 850mb, but all that is there right now is a mid-level circulation. No models have a lot of support for this feature, at least not until it begins to move northeast in the western Atlantic.
At least the GFS isn't so bullish on a Cape Verde storm any longer...
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Recon
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Walk on down there and set Wool right
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 10:15 PM |
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Re: Recon
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>>> At least the GFS isn't so bullish on a Cape Verde storm any longer...
right now too lazy to check, but have there been any CV longtrackers at this time of the season? anything out there, if it even develops, spins fishes, correct? i just can't seem to recall ANYTHING forming that far east having any affect on even the islands, much less the CONUS
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 10:31 PM |
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Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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If it makes it westward to a point east of Central America where Arlene began then it has a chance to become TD #2.
BTW my three day rainfall total from Arlene was 7.45".
Take Care,
Thomas F. Giella, KN4LF
Retired Space & Atmospheric Weather Forecaster
Plant City, FL, USA
kn4lf@arrl.net
NWS Tampa Bay, FL SKYWARN Observer #HIL-249
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 Live Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index1.html
Plant City, FL NWS CWOP Weather Station #AR692 3 Minute Data: http://www.kn4lf.com/index.html
Plant City, FL Daily Climatological Weather Data Archive Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf22.htm
Florida Daily Weather Discussion Blog: http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
Florida Raw Weather Forecasting Product Links: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf13.htm
Global Warming Refuted: http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf42.htm
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 11:10 PM |
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Models
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.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL922005) ON 20050613 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050613 1800 050614 0600 050614 1800 050615 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.0N 75.5W 16.7N 75.9W 18.8N 76.2W 21.1N 76.2W
BAMM 15.0N 75.5W 16.4N 76.4W 18.1N 77.2W 19.8N 77.7W
A98E 15.0N 75.5W 15.7N 75.9W 16.7N 76.3W 18.4N 76.1W
LBAR 15.0N 75.5W 16.4N 75.9W 18.5N 76.1W 20.6N 75.7W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 27KTS 31KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 23KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 1800 050617 1800 050618 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 76.0W 27.4N 73.5W 32.9N 67.8W 39.9N 60.1W
BAMM 21.6N 77.8W 24.7N 75.1W 28.0N 69.2W 31.1N 65.1W
A98E 19.5N 76.1W 20.5N 74.6W 21.9N 72.8W 24.0N 70.8W
LBAR 22.2N 74.6W 24.1N 70.2W 25.9N 65.9W 28.1N 64.5W
SHIP 36KTS 41KTS 41KTS 35KTS
DSHP 28KTS 36KTS 36KTS 30KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 75.5W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 75.0W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 74.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jun 13 2005 11:27 PM |
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Re:GFS
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Quote:
I hate to disagree with the guys down the hall at the TLH NWS, but the 00z GFS from today doesn't show the Carib feature moving into the Gulf...it doesn't really develop it at all. Instead, along the end of the frontal foundary that is expected to stall out over the area, the GFS & other models develop a weak area of low pressure and bring it across the region. What they may have it mixed up with as well is a weak 850mb vorticity signature heading through the Yucutan channel on Monday in that 00z GFS run, but it too would likely move around the periphery of the Caribbean "low"...and has no real surface signature.
I saw the features in question last night. Thanks to some teachings that I picked up here, I was able to put the "possible" label on the Caribbean 850mb vortice as it died out just west of Ft Myers.
The Cape Verde vortice was performing a unusal 'right hand turn' prior to reaching 60.0 W. Probably skirting the Azores High, or the trough just west of the 60 W longitude line.
Waiting on tonights models, but not getting too enthused about the whole scenario.
I checked the Western Atlantic models from 1800Z today. Still don't see any significant surface or upper air features.
http:www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/index_carib.shtml
edited @ 2355Z 7:55 PM EDT
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re:GFS
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Statement...Input from "MET Blog" folks appreciated.
When a system looks like this in the Carribean, it just usually seems to develop. Seems to be a lot af varying conjecture on this developing system in the meteorology world. A lot of models are trying to grab on to this and move it out to sea (but i also notice the latest publically available GFS shows the Carrib low phasing out for a new one that develops in the Bahamas) , the TPC Tropical Weather Discussion notes northward motion yet the surface analysis shows low level ridging to the north, and the NWS Tally and Tampa talk of a potential tropical system in eastern gulf. There are different schools of thought here.
Anyhow, my thought and question. I notice on water vapor that the Upper level low in the Atlantic seems to be getting streatched by a building high in the eastern and central Carib. (Part digging SW, part digging east). My thought has been that this might fall in between, with the core of the upper low moving east and the SW portion eventually evolving into a cut-off in the SW carribean. Disturbance path somewhare in the middle. Do you concur on this observation?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re:GFS
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Did see the TLH AFD, and the TBW one. Didn't see anything about the eastern Gulf in Tampa AFD. But did see this
"SINCE GFS WAS THE FIRST AND BEST MODEL IN DETECTING AND DEVELOPING ARLENE...IT IS WISE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TONIGHTS SOLUTION."
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:26 AM |
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Re:GFS
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I can not tell you anything about the GFS model, but I can tell you that a frog tried to get into my house last night and even when I was nudging him out he was insistent upon entering and did so. Then this morning I saw a large beetle which are not seen around here except when the weather is changing drastically. The only thing I can say about it is that last week a slug appeared on my patio window and we got some of Arlene. The more anomalous creatures to my area of the city, the more liklihood of a US impact. My Lab eventually treed the frog so to speak on the patio curtain. The signs are there....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:27 AM |
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Re:GFS
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I think we need a Met here. As I'm not a Met.
I think you have a firm grasp of the situation. More than I have at the present. If the ridging you speak of extends/ amplifies SW and E then the Greater Antilles, Cuba through Puerto Rico would return to a setup akin to the one a few weeks ago.
An elongated High pressure ridge from East to West.
I'm sure the NWS personnel have much better data than I have here. And much better computers to view it with. I checked the 850mb vorticity products and then checked the 1000mb surface products. I haven't benne able to look past those 2 products yet.
At the surface...yes, there seems to be an area of precip that moves around the western end of Cuba and into the SE GOM. At the same time the 850mb vorticity loop is indicating a vortice (small scale) in teh same area. But the vortice spins down/ dies/ decays before reaching the western coastline of the FL peninsula. That said. The precip continued to move across Southern FL and into the Atlantic.
WIll wait on the 00Z GFS due out around 04:30Z, or 3 hours from now.
The 00 UTC NAM 84hr products are due to be out around 03:03Z. WIth the rest of the models updated after that.
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:33 AM |
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Re:GFS
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Everyone in our county seems to be having a problem with snakes and tree frogs trying to get in. At first I thought it was from all the rain we've had, but now that you mention it...makes me think. Kind of like the animals during the tsunami. Guess I'll stay tuned.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:39 AM |
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Re:GFS
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Quote:
Kind of like the animals during the tsunami. Guess I'll stay tuned.
They may be remembering last years weather...if they were around then. Premonition among animals. Now there's a topic for study.
It works to some degree here-60 miles inland. The cows are normally lying down well before the rain starts. I guess they don't like to lie on wet grass either.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re:GFS
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I have noticed similar actions by animals in Indiana an hour or two before we get a nice severe storm. I notice it the most with birds that seem to almost be panicky and "running for cover". I believe most of this activity can be blamed on the birds enhanced sensitivity of atmospheric pressure. Pressure drops...they feel it and know its time to hide. Kinda like a someone with arthritis "feeling" the weather change - animals are just more "in tune" because they don't have TWC or CFHC. Any thoughts?
(edited for grammar correction)
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 02:04 AM |
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Re: Birthday
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Here is one better, you can go to this site www.kodakgallery.com and upload all your digitals, they do not charge. I have about 700 pictures on there. You can also invite folks via sharing to view. Just be sure when you invite someone you do not require them to register. Some people don't want to bother with all that. Let me know if you need assistance, (tazmanian93@aol.com) Dad sounds insecure, which is why it makes him feel better to put someone else down.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 02:08 AM |
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92L
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in the west caribbean we have a synoptically forced invest tonight. diffluence south of the split from from the upper trough immediately to the north, and a persistent logjam in the trades in the western caribbean is feeding this puppy for now. like last year, the TUTT seems to consist not of a broad, table-sweeping trough, but an endless series of cut off lows that alternately aid and squelch develpment. as far as june is concerned, anyway.
92L has been showing consistently for about a week as a system originating near jamaica and moving either over the area from haiti to eastern cuba, and northeast into the westerlies. the big ridge near the east coast that jammed arlene up to the great lakes (hpc just issued their final advisory on the depression over the 'thumb' of lower michigan) is flattening out, while in it's earlier surge it had dug a weakness on its southeastern flank that extends down into the deep tropics.. acting with the tutt, contributing to the 'logjam' by synoptically forcing the rising of air in the region, and the lowering of surface pressure. if anything is to materialize, it will likely resemble that unclassified system from may of 2004.. perhaps as a clear cut tropical cyclone, but sheared and 'side-heavy' in profile. it should move slowly enough in a support environment to get a good shot at a surface low over the next couple of days, but be sheared and turned northeast beyond that point.. over the bahamas and out into the open atlantic.
there isn't another system the models are approaching enthusiastically beyond this one.. occasional blips in the gulf (that tend to move NE and don't appear on consecutive runs), and that suspicious looking cape verde system which has emerged as a strong but not evidently cyclonic wave. neither has much support.. one lacks a strong, clear pattern forcing element... the other would have to be a world-class early bird to form east of the islands this time of year.
if the caribbean feature develops into a named storm, it will be the first time since 1986 that two storms formed in june. 1982 (and nearly 1997) had a couplet of june systems, but one was subtropical in nature. it doesn't happen very often, and is more typical of either a strong el nino year or a hyperactive season. the latter is more feasible... we all know that may be what we're looking at this year.
first light visibles and some solid recon should give us something to check tomorrow.
HF 0306z14june
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 04:19 AM |
|
too early...
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The new wave off Africa looks potent, especially for this time of year, but no doubt it will meet a watery grave soon as this is mid june. I sometimes wonder if strong waves coming off the coast in june is a portent for August and September
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 04:26 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Phil -- since there have been good records (1880s or so), we haven't had a system form more than about 10 deg east of the islands in June. Even if you cut it back to just the satellite era, it's still pretty darn unlikely to see something that far out. If - IF - anything were to try to get going, it'd have to stay at a pretty low latitude: upper level easterlies encroach down to about 15 N. Shear is pretty strong down to 10 N, too. Waters are warmer than normal for this time of year, but still not really supportive until you get to about 40 W. It's an oddity, especially with such a nice convective burst, but not really anything to be concerned about.
The W. Caribbean Sea storm doesn't have a surface signature yet, after all. A QuikSCAT pass from about 8p ET tonight didn't really even show a low-level trough. Winds are kicking in the convective areas, even up to 40kt in some cases (non-rain flagged), but no hint of anything at low levels. If it develops, it'll meet the expanding weakness in the ridge and move off towards the north and east; if not, whatever remains may head up trudging west, but since this convection is at least partially upper-level induced, there may not be a lot left to go west. We'll see, but anything that threatens the eastern Gulf in the next week is more likely to be a separate feature than anything else.
Other than that, not much to touch upon. Like HF said, we'll know more once we get some vis images in the morning & recon out there in the afternoon. To follow up on the post about these things forming more often that not in the Caribbean Sea: these sorts of convective clusters can tend to spin-up low level circulations -- it follows naturally out of meteorological principles -- but it doesn't always happen. The longer the convection persists, the better the chance of something spinning up. After that, it's up to the environment to see if the circulation can get going...and really, right now, it's not all that condusive. I tend to agree with HF's explanation on the situation, though, so I'll leave it to his discussion for more.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 05:28 AM |
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Re: 92L
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your el nino or active theory is an interesting one
i agree that it probably favors a more active season, because in 1997 the EPAC had 3 storms by now; currently they have had only one, and none this month and there is nothing likely tor form
1996 in the Pacific also started out rather quiet in terms of not having a named storm at all until June 22, and there were 8 storms that year and in the Atlantic there were 13, and nine were hurricanes and six of those were major
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 06:35 AM |
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My take on 92L and other features
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(Standard disclaimer, IANAM... yadda yadda)
Well, at the moment it looks like there are 2 interesting features on the board. The first, most obviously is 92L. There is good mid level turning that remains noticable even in the night time hours, but there is still no evidence of a LLC. Also of interest, it looks like over the last few hours , a piece of energy broke away from the circulation and went racing off to the north east. The center seems to be moving to the eastand away from the shear that's currently giving it fits. It looked like an outflow boundry happened about midnight Zulu. and the north western complex seemed to die down a bit. The piece of energy that was ejected appears like it's going to miss Haiti and head into the Atlantic. from there who knows?
The remaining convection is struggling a bit at this point, partially from shear, partially from the night time convection, however enough is hanging in there to make things interesting in the morning. it's possible there is some sort of LLC around 15.5 N 75W, but I'm hesitant to say so, simply because there is no way to know until a plane can get into the thunderboomers. I'd say there's no way they'd find a depression tomorrow.
An interesting point was made that a possible LLC was forming around 15N 77W, or just to the east and south of the storms. again, this is all little more than speculation on my part, reading those tea leaves so to speak.
Now, is it possible the ejected thunderstorm complex could hold together, and make something in the atlantic? I suppose, but... just seems so... unusual.
Now the pretty pretty wave that just came off of africa, the only thing that is keeping me from absolutely discounting it, most of the energy is south of 10N, which by itself means that most likely it's too close to the equator to form into anything, but it has a better shot down there than north where shear and cold water would kill it (in the east atlantic, anything north of 14N is in sub 25 dec C water). So, it's extremely unlikely, but not a bad one to peek and go, oooh, in a month we'll really start worrying about these suckers.
Collectively, I'd say there's about a 1 in 3 shot that something will form from one of these systems, the odds that 2 out of the 3 turn into something tropical or sub tropical is about 100 to 1, and all 3? Sorry, vegas doesn't give odds like large.
-Mark
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:22 PM |
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Re:GFS
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Taz - Thanks for the weblink. I have an account with SnapFish which I think is similar to the one you posted either way, I have your email address so if I have a problem, I will send you a note.
Guppie - I have been having a horrible time with lizards and these little black things some people call roaches - I think of them more as the devil himself personally. Seriously, how come when I was little and you would see one they were the size of my pinky and now...they are the size of a cat? ANd when did they grow wings - explain that to me? I called the Pest Control and he told me that they have been getting a lot of calls about them as well. So, I guess I am not alone. The only time they seem real bad is right after a good storm, which seems to be a daily thing here lately. At any rate, I can handle, snakes, frogs and other little creatures so, I will trade ya.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 01:46 PM |
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Re:GFS
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Greetings all - - The discussion about vermin, insects , etc. is very interesting. In St. Cloud we have noticed that the squirrels are nesting lower in the trees, a starteling absence of early season love bugs, and slugs in abundance in, on and near the house. Last year, after Charlie, we saw the same kind of behavior before Frances, and then no bugs at all (except mosquitos) before Jeanne. Has any research (other than the much published atmospheric pressure studies) been done on this or is it only folklore?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 02:15 PM |
Re: New Areas to Watch Past Arlene
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The hurricane hunter aircraft that was scheduled to visit this system has been cancelled by the NHC.
035
NOUS42 KNHC 141330
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT TUE 14 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z MAY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-018
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST SCHEDULED FOR 14/2000Z IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/1100Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
| Jekyhe904 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re:GFS
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I am not sure if there is any research on insects and hurricanes but there is ancient indian folklore relation between actions of sea turtles and hurricanes. Here is a story from the Florida times in Jacksonville about how the sea turtles didnt nest but Fleed Jax in 1964... The year Dora came ashore Jacksonville.
http://jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/053099/met_1f1dora_.html
This year, there is concern that the sea turtles are not nesting for some reason
http://www.jacksonville.com/tu-online/stories/060805/nes_18927559.shtml
Also, there was mention of sea turtles nesting on higher ground last year in South Fla and they are noticing the nests are even higher this year.
http://www.wftv.com/news/4583160/detail.html
May or may not mean anything but is interresting to say the least
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: BOC
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So..while we are all looking at the Carib, whats that I see in the BOC?? NIce circular blob, looks like a circ down in the bottom...but what is that weird rope cloud like structure stretching NNW from the BOC blob>??
Seems like both 'systems' are being ventilated by troughs to their NW...maybe the trough will bypass the BOC feature and it will fester.....
I understand why they cancelled the recon (just like pre-Arlene) , but, sure seems like something is firing up....
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 05:16 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Good observation mapmaster, for I was wondering the same. The disturbance in the BOC could be temporary since convection has only been present with the tropical wave for about 3-4 hours. Even if it does manage to develop it is moving west at 5-10 mph according to NHC which would mean an impending landfall near Veracruz. However, it is certainly as interesting as anything else going on.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 05:22 PM |
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Re: BOC
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I know everyone is interested in what could be upcoming Bret but I finally got the pictures downloaded from the party Saturday...Taz, this should work. THanks for your help!
http://www.snapfish.com/share/p=807141118769190287/l=50892784/otsc=SYE/otsi=SALB
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: BOC
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No real circulation there (yet at least) -- this morning's QuikSCAT over the region caught the convective area to some degree, missing the eastern edge, but hinted at some turning in the winds. However, the vis satellite only shows a very, very weak turning just southwest of Jamaica...not even sure I'd call it a circulation. Nothing on the south end of the convection either, but again that could be a "yet." Something may try to get going there, but there's a fair bit of shear in the region...anything you see will probably end up like the little swirl mentioned above in a fair amount of time.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Well, thanks for sharing, it appears she did pretty well for herself. Adorable, she appears to have a bit of independence as well, lol I also meant to tell you regarding your avitar, just copy/paste into Powerpoint, crop and save it as a new image and then upload
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 07:09 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Thanks Taz...I have powerpoint at home but my computer has a nice little virus that has decided to stay with me for a while so I will see if one of the girls in the office has it on her computer so I can do that. Yeah, she made out - she is spoiled. My only one and it is my job. I wanted a princess and got a tom boy instead. Figures. Oh well. You will see her someday I am sure of it. She is already facinated by weather.
Tunder mommy - tunder...can't figure out how she learned that...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 07:12 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Perhaps the environment will become favorable in the next day or two? I believe the High pressure system in the GOM will help grow this system into something worth following up.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: BOC *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Wasn't it already 92L...?
HF posted about it at the bottom of page three...13th....
MM
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 09:37 PM |
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Re: BOC
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You are correct....I read right past it. Thanks.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: BOC
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looks like we have a developing la nina SSTs
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 11:19 PM |
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La Nina
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La Nina would be responsible for much rain in the Florida area. How strong is this La Nina?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 14 2005 11:43 PM |
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Re: BOC
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Quote:
looks like we have a developing la nina SSTs
When I last checked I didn't see any models predicting a la nina? Did they change since then? It looks transitional if you ask me, we had a similar event happen in the winter.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 12:53 AM |
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92L
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Just looked at models here GFS and FSUMM5 picking up on 92L, as we say this time of the year, persistance is key, and its persisting so far. SST Anomalies map may be better for picking out La Nina.
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.14.2005.gif
ENSO Diagnostic Discussion suggests neutral conditions expected during the northern hemisphere summer.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 01:57 AM |
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Re: 92L
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There appears to be a very well defined area of spin near the northwest coast of Jamaica. Cented near 18.5/78 west. Very interesting.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: 92L
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A few notes...
1) La Nina is a very dry pattern for Florida. The last well-defined La Nina event was coincident with the two years of drought and summertime fires across Florida in 1998 and 1999. El Nino events tend to be a bit wetter, but La Nina events are very dry through the first half of the summer.
2) There's still no circulation associated with 92L, at least not on the NW side of Jamaica. This evening's QuikSCAT pass showed only straight-line winds out of the east-southeast across the region. There is a weak area of low pressure near 14.5 N, 78 W, but that is well south of Jamaica and well-removed from any convection. It's more likely a representation of the persistent area of low pressure across the region over the past couple-few weeks than anything else.
3) While SST anomalies are useful in looking at ENSO events, you have to look below the surface and at other parameters as well. While I don't have the complete report to post, the ENSO diagnostic center at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology reports that there are still a combination of El Nino and neutral signals out there, with the persistence of the neutral signals likely signifying the maintenance of neutral ENSO conditions for the foreseeable future. It's been a weird pattern this year in regards to the EPac SST anomalies, but beyond that, the other signals suggest El Nino or neutrality.
With regards to 92L, there's still a sizeable upper-level low just west of the storm, with shear tendencies increasing in that region. The convection is almost solely a result on strong divergence aloft over the region forced by the upper low to its west. There is some low-level vorticity there, hinting that something might work its way down to the surface, but nothing yet. FSU MM5 hints at a weak low moving into the NW Caribbean, but does nothing with it; the development towards its north and east appears to be mostly unrelated. The 18Z run of the GFS is the only one out there that really does a lot with this system, and while it cannot be discounted, I wonder if they've tried changing the tropical physics with the model around this year, since it's tried developing a lot of things lately...correctly and incorrectly. But that's just me thinking out loud.
All in all -- a nice impressive bout of convection associated with 92L, likely to bring a lot of rain to Jamaica and Hispaniola, but not a tropical cyclone.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 02:37 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Clark...et al
not to make light of this situation...i agree with everything you have laid out (not that i'd know much better anyway), but this system is eerily similar to the unnamed TS from last may and jeanne both of which killed 3,000 haitians...do you foresee this posing any similar dangers to that half of hispaniola???
that island, and haiti in particular, have taken quite a beating the past two seasons...i wish there were better "warning" systems to aid those residents
unless and untill there is a recon mission, i'd say 92L is a nice invest awaiting passage to the great beyond and towards europe down the road
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:17 AM |
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92L... la nina?
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what's all this talk about la nina? that's a shot of upwelling near the galapagos, if that's what's being discussed... it happens from time to time. the tropical pacific has been staying neutral to weak warm.. if la nina is trying to come on, SOI going hard negative every couple of weeks to a month and staying there for extended periods is keeping it well in check. there are still more positive anomalies in the 1/2 region than negatives, and the 3/4 is and has been pretty much positive since this time last year. rabbit made comments on past years that may have some ancillary bearing on the topic, as to what sort of year we're in anyway. i reckon it's more or less like every year since 1995 (save 1997).. lots of atlantic action, underwhelming pacific activity.
other stuff... speaking of underwhelming, 92L is just that. there's one of those next-to-the convection sort of hairpin vorticity maxes that crosses jamaica today.. further east in the heavy convection there doesn't seem to be any further organization. this setup does not bode for much development unless the hairpin gets into the convection.. a possible window for this is tomorrow as the the upper trough develops a meander in the sw caribbean and the diffluence on its northeast flank increases. the chances of development still aren't doing more than skipping across the pond.. this duck hasn't taken wing by any means. if it does we can name it bret.
the boc (burn out the day.. heheh) flareup today has been showing intermittently on globals for days, but surprised me a little.. some version of it has been present at least. with the upper trough forecast to dig into the east going into next week.. any disturbance in that region would get a window for development ahead of the amplification.. if anything significant could take shape that is. there isn't a convincing argument for this, but if disturbed weather keeps persisting in the area, or say, near the yucatan... that could change things. as the trough digs some energy is forecast to feed up ahead of it early next week, so we'll have to see what collects over there during the next few.
east atlantic.. blah. the 18z gfs run spits another phantom off the coast near the end of the month. we've seen the odd june/july depression out of that part of the world over the last five years or so (2000, 2001, 2003). the recent wave isn't doing much, but as the next month or two goes by i wouldn't be surprised if some more substantial features materialize down there. gfs has been getting better at spotting trouble...
that's much adieu about little. bret is on layover or perhaps will arrive on a later flight, so we're just wave-mongering a little. the innocent, i don't really believe this type. hopefully haiti isn't getting drenched too bad... after the 2004 events they should be all the more wary of slow moving, systems. ridge in the east is giving way, but not before it bakes this part of the country for a day or two. today was very hot here, and not much rain around for the first time in over two weeks. tomorrow should be a scorcher, the hottest of the year so far. summer arrives with a vengeance, if only for a brief visit.
HF 0415z15june
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 04:36 AM |
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Re: 92L
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Phil -- it definitely could have a similar effect, depending on how long it stays there. That's a very mountainous island and with poor living conditions across most of it, rainfall and mudslides could be torrential. Hopefully it doesn't stick around long enough to pose such a problem, but unless the pattern shifts, it very well might stick.
By downplaying the potential development of 92L, though, I don't mean to downplay its impacts, which can be (and likely are) very real to those in Jamaica and on Hispaniola. Whatever is there is not as well organized as last year's May event, but we've seen how dying tropical cyclones can dump massive amounts of rainfall in the S.E. US -- doesn't necessarily have to be organized to rain.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 11:27 AM |
Possible Low
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Any thoughts to the area around Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Current Weather Conditions:
Cayo Largo Del Sur, Cuba
(MUCL) 21-37N 081-33W
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Conditions at Jun 14, 2005 - 05:54 PM EDTJun 14, 2005 - 04:54 PM CDTJun 14, 2005 - 03:54 PM MDTJun 14, 2005 - 02:54 PM PDTJun 14, 2005 - 01:54 PM ADTJun 14, 2005 - 12:54 PM HDT
2005.06.14 2154 UTC
Wind from the SSE (160 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 93.4 F (34.1 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCL.html
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 01:40 PM |
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Re: Possible Low
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Convection looking pretty persistent:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:27 PM |
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Recon on Thursday
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USAFR Hurricane Hunters are headed into the Bay of Campeche on Thursday to investigate a suspect area, which has been hinted at by modelling for the last few days...might want to shift at least some of your focus further west...
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Recon on Thursday
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JK...do you think NRL will proclaim this area 93L today?
| Liz |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: Recon on Thursday
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I was just checking recon schedule at NHC and saw the same thing. hmmmm
Liz
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: Recon on Thursday
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Quote:
JK...do you think NRL will proclaim this area 93L today?
Likely, esp since recon is planned...need a bit more organized convection going, but I suspect that NRL and NHC are talking already.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: Recon on Thursday
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I've read earlier that this system was moving inland into Mexico. So this development surprised me.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: Recon on Thursday
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More than likely it will move into Mexico and be gone, but BOC systems don't always behave as they are supposed to, and there are already hints of a circulation down there...I think that this is mostly a preventative move anyway, and has a good chance of getting cancelled...it's kind of a just in case type of deal.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 04:07 PM |
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93L for BOC
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Phil here is the answer to your question.Interesting that they are focusing down there as the wave gets into Mexico unless a piece stays as the BOC.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: 93L for BOC
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Thanks Luis...i figgered if they were thinking about sending down recon, they'd prolly need to have "something" (as in 93L) to investigate...like JK said, i think this is more of a precautionary measure than anything else, but i guess we'll know more tomorrow...
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 06:13 PM |
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Heat
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I complained about all the rain we had for what seemed like two weeks straight but now that the clouds are away the heat is back and it has been hot as heck the last three days. It seems to be too hot to stand out side for more than five minutes.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 06:17 PM |
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93L
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I thought 93L was forecast to move inland over Mexico. TWO at 11:30 says TC formation is not likely due to proximity to land, but recon schedule flight two says Cyclone. Can't find the tropical model plots for this one yet, i guess they are not out.
Tampico Mexico Radar
Alvarado Mexico Radar
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 07:13 PM |
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Area South of Cuba
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That area (92L?) looks like it's breaking apart, but still viable. It appeasr to be in an unfriendly environment for development as seen on the sat imagery.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 07:29 PM |
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Re: GFS 108 hrs
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interesting that the GFS in 108hrs-144hrs trys to bring a feature (small) into the gulf, just like arlene did last week, but it kills it in central GOM., note this is a long way out...and its so small, there appears to be nothing to it.
GFS GFS 2005061512
hey the radar shows what looks like a surface low (93L) just of the coast to the se of tampico.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Thats what I'm waiting on to see if they are going to start running them at 1600Z. If they do then I will be posting them
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 08:38 PM |
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Models out for 93L
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Code:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050615 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 0600 050616 1800 050617 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.7W 19.6N 96.5W 19.9N 97.0W
BAMM 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.8W 19.4N 96.7W 19.6N 97.4W
A98E 18.6N 94.6W 19.4N 95.9W 19.9N 97.0W 20.2N 97.9W
LBAR 18.6N 94.6W 19.2N 95.7W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 97.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800 050620 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 97.3W 20.1N 97.9W 19.9N 98.9W 19.1N 100.8W
BAMM 19.8N 98.0W 20.1N 99.6W 20.5N 102.3W 21.1N 105.6W
A98E 20.4N 98.3W 20.9N 98.7W 21.4N 99.5W 21.2N 101.5W
LBAR 20.8N 98.2W 22.2N 98.8W 23.7N 99.8W 24.2N 101.0W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Code tage was the only way i could keep the spacing
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 09:25 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Models out for 93L
|
Quote:
Code:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20050615 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050615 1800 050616 0600 050616 1800 050617 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.7W 19.6N 96.5W 19.9N 97.0W
BAMM 18.6N 94.6W 19.1N 95.8W 19.4N 96.7W 19.6N 97.4W
A98E 18.6N 94.6W 19.4N 95.9W 19.9N 97.0W 20.2N 97.9W
LBAR 18.6N 94.6W 19.2N 95.7W 19.7N 96.7W 20.3N 97.5W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 33KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 24KTS 26KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050617 1800 050618 1800 050619 1800 050620 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.1N 97.3W 20.1N 97.9W 19.9N 98.9W 19.1N 100.8W
BAMM 19.8N 98.0W 20.1N 99.6W 20.5N 102.3W 21.1N 105.6W
A98E 20.4N 98.3W 20.9N 98.7W 21.4N 99.5W 21.2N 101.5W
LBAR 20.8N 98.2W 22.2N 98.8W 23.7N 99.8W 24.2N 101.0W
SHIP 38KTS 43KTS 44KTS 40KTS
DSHP 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS 29KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.6N LONCUR = 94.6W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 17.8N LONM12 = 93.2W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 16.8N LONM24 = 91.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
Code tage was the only way i could keep the spacing
Here are the runs I got.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 09:48 PM |
|
Re: Models out for 93L
|
Not sure I'd put much stock in those objective aids, at least not SHIPS. Anything west of about 97 W is over Mexico...where anything tropical certainly isn't going to develop! Wouldn't say development is out of the question over water, but I can tell you it won't happen over Mexico, haha.
92L is looking a bit more ragged today, which isn't altogether unsurprising. The area of 93L is broad and extends down into the Pacific...were it not for Mexico, we might have something. As it is, probably a collection of daytime convection moving into shore and weakening through the day & into the night is all we'll get. Worth watching, though.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 10:21 PM |
|
Re: Models out for 93L
|
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
Clark as expected nomore 92L as the conditions for it never were the ideal for development.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 15 2005 11:33 PM |
|
|
|
92L, 93L
|
92L got the nix a little early.. it should continue to flare is at turns NE ahead of the trough digging in over the east. it may develop another low northeast of the bahamas in lieu of the weak one it spit out over the western caribbean yesterday. it looked somewhat promising over the weekend, but the only potential it has left is a quick-and-out eleventh hour system, and little chance of that even.
93L is ashore. it had a nice signature, but no good over land.
a moisture surge should over the southeast as a trough sets up in the eastern u.s. over the weekend. the central u.s. ridge should build northeast over the top of it, and cause some of the energy to peel back sw.. should force ridging near the caribbean next week. we'll have to watch that another system doesn't get caught in the moisture surge heading for florida in a few days.
HF 0031z16june
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 12:45 AM |
|
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
1st post for 2005, great to be back, looking forward to an active but NOT destructive tropical season, hopefully most will be fish spinners. Saw this in the aftternoon S Fla discussion, could be a water-logged weekend especially Sunday for S Fla.
EXTENDED PERIOD...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH REASSERTING ITSELF FROM
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD...SIGNALING A RETURN TO A
WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS EVEN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW NEAR
WESTERN CUBA SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVES IT NEAR THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
GULF COAST SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS SUNDAY GO BACK TO A SOUTHEAST FLOW IN
RESPONSE. STRONG WINDS ALOFT WOULD MEAN MORE OF A SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTER. GFS SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE WATERLOGGED SOUTHWEST GULF COAST. A
NEW JUNE RAINFALL RECORD FOR NAPLES IS ASSURED IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT AS PROGGED. ITS STILL EARLY AND THE GFS HAS BEEN TOO FAST OF
LATE SO WILL NOT BUY THIS SOLUTION COMPLETELY JUST YET BUT WILL
TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
TG
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 02:50 AM |
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
There sure seem to be a lot of tropical waves, etc. mentioned in the latest NHC Tropcial Discussion (8:15pm EDT I think it said.). Is that normal, having several waves under observation? Just curious. Check the discussion, if you haven't already.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 03:11 AM |
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
Four or five is active, but not really out of the ordinary, and they are spread out from the far East Atllantic to the SW GOM. Conditions are not all that favorable for development of any of them at this point, so they are just interesting weather features to watch.
Bill
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 10:38 AM |
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
This mornings early loops look like a horse race to see which wave is going to become our next named system. Everything on satellite looks fiery red. The artists must have gotten a new ink carteridge for their computers!
But, the number of waves out there look more like the end of July than the end of June. I have to wonder if the Indian earthquakes and Tsunamis sped up our hurricane season this year.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 11:45 AM |
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
It's amazing how 12 hours can change a forecast. Even though there will be thunderstorms here in the metropolitan area. It doesn't look as wet as last nights discussion. http://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDisc....Fort_Lauderdale
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 01:35 PM |
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
There seems to be a spin at 19.5/92.5. The covnection has pulled out over the Boc. In has started to center its self near there.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 01:43 PM |
|
Re: Wet S Fla weekend
|
Agreed, the latest vis imagery shows at least some vidence of a circulation, but it seems to be inland which kinda puts the brakes on further development. If the centre can pull offshore then given its current satellite presentation i think we could see something when recon gets there.
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 03:01 PM |
|
No recon for BOC
|
ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 16/1800Z AND FOLLOW ON TASKING
FOR DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE CANCELED
BY NHC AT 16/1140Z.
No surprise about this as the center is inland.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 04:25 PM |
|
Bret in the works, and....
|
Looks like Bret is in the works east of Florida....and would have been in the BOC if the center were 100 miles further north...this may be the B storm in the EastPAc
IHS,
MM
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 04:54 PM |
|
Re: Bret in the works, and....
|
Seems to be alittle spinner in the Bahamas area north of central Cuba and that area south, south east of Jamaica has been pretty popular with convection for last few days.....T.D. OR Bret in the workins in the next couple of days in either of these areas??????........Weatherchef
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 05:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret in the works, and....
|
It appears that all these storms are caused by both a mid/upper level trough from the northern Caribbean extending into the area around the central/Northern Bahamas and a ridge from the mid/upper high in the southern Caribbean extending across Hispaniola north to beyond 32N 69W. Thus the rain- and at present there is no mention of the possibility of a Brett forming.
Oh well.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 05:58 PM |
|
|
|
2 PM EDT Tropical Wx Discussion
|
From the 2 PM Tropical Wx discussion. Edited. Discussion in whole is available by clicking the link at the bottom of the post.
Small circulation N of Eastern Cuba does manage to get an honorable mention. But only as a suface low and cyclic in nature.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 16 2005
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE N CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NW TO NEAR 30N67W. SCATTERED MODERATED CONVECTIONS EXTENDS FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 66W-74W...GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A COUPLE WEAK SURFACE LOWS MOVING NE ALONG THE AXIS. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE MID/UPPER HIGH IN THE S CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA N TO 32N69W CONTINUING WELL N OF THE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH NEAR 30N46W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 21N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N37W SW TO NEAR 20N52W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE AXIS TO NEAR 4OW. BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS FROM 17N37W NE TO 32N24W....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:14 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
Teh disturbance east of the Bahamas is more than a trough or a transitory low, has been developing all day. 91L is the main contender for Bret in the near future.
MM
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret
|
Don't think we will see much, upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for development. Big t-storm here, producing strong wind gusts, making Lake look like an angry ocean, off to survey the situation, from inside of course.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret
|
Quote:
Teh disturbance east of the Bahamas is more than a trough or a transitory low, has been developing all day. 91L is the main contender for Bret in the near future.
MM
You must mean 88L. They already open it up as an investigation. 91L was Arlene.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:37 PM |
|
|
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Re: Bret
|
Clark is likely going to clear this up in a second, but there are no invests, other than 93L, which is inland at this time.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
Referring to it as 91L because that was the former designation.
And yes, you are right---actually it was 92L, wasn't it. Anyway......
MM
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 08:42 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
The former 92L -- I think you mean 92L, as 91L was an upper-low in the central Atlantic, while 93L is the Bay of Campeche activity -- is associated with an upper-level low near Jamaica. No low-level circulation to speak of, winds aren't all that strong, and the convection is driven in much the same way as it has been the past 3-4 days: by divergent upper-level winds near the trough, not unlike what you sometimes see over land during spring & fall. All of it is weakening, however, and beginning to lift out to the northeast. Neither this area of convection or the signature east of the Bahamas -- which is associated with a slightly larger upper-air low -- are all that impressive other than for the rain they have or may bring to Hispaniola.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 09:07 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
Yes, I am referring to the one east of the Bahamas. And, it seems to be coming to the surface....
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 09:25 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
NOT an upper low- from 1730 TWO:
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
Bret in the works...
MM
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 09:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret
|
I'll take more notice of it when an invest is up, the wind shear forecast shows more favorable conditions, and when it has more support in forecast models.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 09:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret
|
hummmmmmm I'm getting a 88L well now it's a NONAME AL882005 in the 1800Z model runs with winds at 35k but the NHC isn't looking at it and funny I cant see it on the sat. I would't think this is a test run to mess people up who is running the models. Any sugestions as why they are running this?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 10:11 PM |
|
Re: Bret
|
It doesn't mean, MM, that it is not associated with an upper-low. Look at the water vapor imagery; you'll see what I mean. Also, "an area of disturbed weather" does not imply a low-level circulation or even a surface feature...just that something is there. There *might* be a low-level circulation trying to form, but it is directly connected to that upper-low, the convection is being forced by diverging winds aloft, and the only model that picks up on such development -- the Air Force MM5 -- has its development as a very weak, cold core system.
Getting Bret out of that would have to come quick, as the waters get cool in a hurry, and anythnig that happens there wouldn't be quick. Shear isn't favorable, either, though not necessarily horrible. The upper low it is associated with -- just like the last one -- is the main player. It's what is forcing this the convection, really.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 10:21 PM |
|
|
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Re: Bret
|
coupla things...maybe clark can clear up MY confusion
i never heard of a storm getting a classification of "88L"...that's not to say it's not possible, i just thought they were all in the 90s...
second...while i can't work the dreaded rabbit voodoo hex (dammit), i can pretty much say the remains of 92L aint gonna be bret...
we got lots of small distrubances a poppin' all over the place, but i wouldn't bet on 2 named june storms from anything that's out there now...(or should i say, one more named storm, making 2 total).
clark, perhaps you can elaborate/clarify???
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 10:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Bret
|
Yea and maybe Clark can look thru this and see what and why.
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -24, 232N, 886W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -18, 237N, 877W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -12, 241N, 868W, 30, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, -6, 246N, 860W, 35, 0, TS, 34, AAA, 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 50, 50, 50, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 50, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 01, CARQ, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 1005, TS, 64, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, X, 60, 9, NONAME, D,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 12, 257N, 833W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 24, 261N, 813W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 36, 268N, 791W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 48, 283N, 766W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 60, 301N, 744W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 72, 326N, 718W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 84, 357N, 689W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 96, 380N, 650W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 108, 391N, 610W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A90E, 120, 393N, 572W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 12, 257N, 833W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 24, 261N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 36, 268N, 791W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 48, 283N, 766W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 60, 301N, 744W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 72, 326N, 718W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 84, 357N, 689W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 96, 380N, 650W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 108, 391N, 610W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A98E, 120, 393N, 572W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 0, 250N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 12, 257N, 832W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 24, 260N, 809W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 36, 266N, 780W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 48, 283N, 747W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 60, 300N, 725W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, A9UK, 72, 322N, 699W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 12, 240N, 836W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 24, 239N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 36, 252N, 781W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 48, 277N, 748W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 60, 313N, 710W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 72, 354N, 676W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 84, 390N, 626W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 96, 406N, 544W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 108, 406N, 456W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMD, 120, 404N, 387W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 12, 250N, 846W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 24, 250N, 837W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 36, 255N, 819W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 48, 265N, 795W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 60, 283N, 758W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 72, 308N, 721W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 84, 339N, 687W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 96, 363N, 657W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMM, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 12, 251N, 850W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 24, 247N, 854W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 36, 249N, 852W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 48, 250N, 848W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 60, 251N, 836W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 72, 257N, 824W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 84, 264N, 803W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 96, 277N, 782W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 108, 297N, 759W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, BAMS, 120, 320N, 733W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 12, 259N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 24, 269N, 818W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 36, 279N, 804W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 48, 290N, 790W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLIP, 72, 313N, 763W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 12, 260N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 24, 271N, 820W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 36, 284N, 807W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 48, 294N, 798W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 60, 307N, 792W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 72, 319N, 787W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 84, 333N, 776W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 96, 342N, 765W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 108, 357N, 757W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, CLP5, 120, 369N, 747W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 24, 250N, 837W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 48, 265N, 795W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 60, 283N, 758W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 72, 308N, 721W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 84, 339N, 687W, 24, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 96, 363N, 657W, 19, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSHP, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 24, 250N, 837W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 48, 265N, 795W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 60, 283N, 758W, 33, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 72, 308N, 721W, 29, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 84, 339N, 687W, 25, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 96, 363N, 657W, 20, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, DSNS, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 12, 254N, 834W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 24, 265N, 815W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 36, 283N, 785W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 48, 312N, 740W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 60, 351N, 687W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 72, 401N, 631W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, LBAR, 84, 444N, 549W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 0, 0N, 0W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 12, 0N, 0W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 24, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 36, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 48, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 60, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 72, 0N, 0W, 43, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 84, 0N, 0W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 96, 0N, 0W, 40, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 108, 0N, 0W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHF5, 120, 0N, 0W, 37, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 12, 0N, 0W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 24, 0N, 0W, 42, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 36, 0N, 0W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 48, 0N, 0W, 46, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 60, 0N, 0W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHFR, 72, 0N, 0W, 48, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 24, 250N, 837W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 48, 265N, 795W, 37, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 60, 283N, 758W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 72, 308N, 721W, 31, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 84, 339N, 687W, 26, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 96, 363N, 657W, 21, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 108, 377N, 627W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHIP, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 0, 250N, 850W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 12, 250N, 846W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 24, 250N, 837W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 36, 255N, 819W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 48, 265N, 795W, 38, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 60, 283N, 758W, 36, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 72, 308N, 721W, 32, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 84, 339N, 687W, 28, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 96, 363N, 657W, 22, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 108, 377N, 627W, 15, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, SHNS, 120, 379N, 593W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 12, 259N, 832W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 24, 268N, 814W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 36, 277N, 795W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 48, 286N, 777W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 60, 295N, 758W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 72, 304N, 739W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 84, 313N, 720W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 96, 322N, 701W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 108, 332N, 681W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 88, 2005061612, 03, XTRP, 120, 341N, 662W, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 16 2005 11:47 PM |
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Re: Bret
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Ok my bad. I found out this IS a " TEST RUN". They need to do these off season.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: Bret
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I'd never heard of 88L either, but I'm glad they finally denoted it as a test run -- those positions of 25 N and 83 W are pretty darn close to Florida! NRL and FNMOC hadn't picked up on it, though, so I was just going to wait it out and see what happened.
I'd bet on something getting going in early-mid July, but not now. We should be entering an active MJO phase by July, with the first signs of one kicking in the Indian Ocean now. I'm not the guru on that, though -- that's HF -- so I'll leave anything beyond that to him!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 04:00 AM |
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say what
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i aint no frickin guru. haven't been keeping good tabs on mjo, since it didn't seem to direct 2004 like the previous seasons i kinda quit watching it like a hawk. i'll have to find what monitoring resources are out there right now.. the old cpc graphic didn't work most of the time. been eyeballing SOI and getting secondhand bastardi thoughts.. that's enough to keep some semblance of reason.
our old friend 92L is waving goodbye, flaring some under the ridging in the exit region of that upper trough. it's forcing mechanisms aren't purely tropical as a broad trough covers much of the central atlantic. 93L has lost its battle with land, but the disturbed weather in the region should continue as an upper trough digs sw over the eastern u.s. into the gulf over the weekend. there should be some outflow enhancement for the area... enough to force pressure falls and maintain disturbed weather, while inducing shear on the region as well. the globals are showing low pressure near the southeast, drawing in energy from the nw caribbean... it might have a quasi tropical look to it, whatever comes up over florida into early next week. as for clark's idea about july.. why the hell not, i say. indications are we're entering a hyper-active season.
HF 0457z17june
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 04:17 PM |
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NW caribbean, Again
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There is a broad area north and NE of Honduras displaying circulatory motion in the sat imagery. It is producing cloudy conditions and thought it might be the beginning of a disturbance.
Could this be a surface low?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: NW caribbean, Again
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All of the low-level flow in that region is out of the south-southeast, around the broader area of low pressure inland between the Bays of Campeche and Tehuantepec. The convective tops, what few there are, are being sheared by the outflow from that region. A trough is approaching from the northwest and should be very near the area shortly. Nothing to really worry about.
Convection is flaring up south of Bermuda again, but that system is decidedly tied to an upper-level low and is not tropical...not to mention jetting out to the north and east.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 06:31 PM |
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assembly
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i usually only run through gfs runs to keep up to date.. cause it goes many days out in advance. some of the other globals had been more adamant about creating a coastal low near the SE late in the weekend.. gfs finally has it's version.. the upper energy currently generating the mcc diving se over the lower mississippi valley skimming the ne gulf and then briefly deepening as it moves up the se coast. i was thinking more of a tropical connection here, big moisture plume or something.. but not seeing it yet. the caribbean logjam fed into 92L and jetted out.. the weakness in the ridge should reconfigure further west near the yucatan going into next week. the 93L disturbance may have some copycat bad weather in the region in the coming days.. maybe over on the pacific side or in the ne caribbean. if we get anything in the coming days that'll probably be the source region, anyhow. nothing big the models are latching onto at least.
HF 1928z17june
| mysticalmooons |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 08:07 PM |
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93L Invest
|
Navel hurricane research
This is a invest off the coast of mexico tucked in the bay. Any thoughts of its development
Should be Naval Hurricane Research- Right!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 17 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: 93L Invest
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That 93L is an old invest and is no longer active. If you go to the link you provided and then click on "Active," it lets you know that there are no active storms...which is true. What was 93L is firmly overland.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 18 2005 06:09 PM |
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Re: 93L Invest
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Quote:
Navel hurricane research
This is a invest off the coast of mexico tucked in the bay. Any thoughts of its development
Should be Naval Hurricane Research- Right!
no daniel...new for 2005 the us govt has allowed the research to spread out into the investigation of belly buttons...
(feel free to delete this post all you mods...it's so quiet i just had to have a little fun)
I thought he was talking about navel oranges. Native to Florida. ~danielw
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Jun 19 2005 01:17 AM |
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Re: 93L Invest
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Phil, this isn't such a stretch after all. One of the main industries of Florida is tourism, and our fabulous beaches. The effect of hurricanes on beaches, which has a direct effect on navel exposure, is direclty related to the success of the tourist industry!
Bill
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jun 19 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: 93L Invest
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Strange...but in some way it does all add up
