Administrator

(Admin)

Sun Jun 19 2005 12:00 PM

Quiet Weekend Continues

The normalcy of a quiet June is upon us now, which is a welcome relief. Nothing of immediate to watch. Except for perhaps the hyperactive GFS forecasting model, there really isn't much to watch.

You have to look at the usual suspect areas this time of year, which includes the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Neither of which have much right now. There is weather around the Yucatan, but nothing over water. Right now it's a stretch to consider anything for development at this time.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 19 2005 02:13 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..

(Weather Guru)

Sun Jun 19 2005 02:27 PM

Happy Father's Day

I know this is off topic, but I just wanted to say Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads out there. Dads are great and deserve recognition!!!!

MaryAnn

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jun 19 2005 03:10 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Quote:

That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..

I could not agree more. I like things like electric, A/C, hot showers and the carport roof aver my head, not strewn across the lawn.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jun 19 2005 03:43 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Quote:

That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West. I also noticed the front lines from the west being few and far between effectively rulling out any immediate formations to approach Florida. (of course I am biased against anything coming to Florida this year if for no other reason than the media hoopla) Jus' one of those weird people that like to prove the point contrary to popular opinion. Did see snails climbing my house this morning and washed them down. A few lovebugs without partners were flying around as well We are now getting dried out so it is time for the afternoon thunderbummers! Everyone else can keep those hurricanes at a distance, please..

I noticed the South and east direction too instead of north and west. What is causing this weather pattern?

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 19 2005 04:14 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

noticed the South and east direction too instead of north and west. What is causing this weather pattern?

I have two guess, one it is a transitional pattern that amateurs would not have even noticed if we had not already had one tropical storm form. 2nd guess is that the earthquakes, Tsunamis, Bombing in Iraq, and environmental shifts that occur normally over the centuries. The media did say that the earth was somehow moved slightly by the tremendous earthquake. But again, the most likely answer is the transitional pattern that occurs this time of year to create the easterly flow.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 19 2005 05:09 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Has anyone noticed the swirl in the clouds, resembling a circulation, just off the coast of Merida, Mexico i.e. along 90 west just off the Yucatan? Thunderstorm activicity is limited with this feature, however this is the exact area where the GFS indicates future development.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 19 2005 05:30 PM

Re: Eating crow

At least a little re: system that might become Bret that fizzled east of Bermuda. At least I only said it was a candidate to become Bret!! No sure things in the tropics, especially this time of year.

Yes, the convection east fo the Yucatan is impressive, but, so far, not organized.

MM

(User)

Sun Jun 19 2005 05:34 PM

Re: Happy Father's Day

Quote:

I know this is off topic, but I just wanted to say Happy Father's Day to all of the Dads out there. Dads are great and deserve recognition!!!!

MaryAnn

Absolutely OFF TOPIC...and guess what...

I'm glad somebody posted it...

HAPPY FATHER'S DAY to all the dads, granddads & sons...

ima have a catch with my dad today (and yes it's "have a catch" not "play catch")...and hopefully, watch "Field of Dreams" with him...

i'm outta here for a while...father's day ya know...gonna cook some steaks, watch the US Open, and have a catch...

all ya'll have a GREAT DAY!

(User)

Sun Jun 19 2005 06:17 PM

Re: Happy Father's Day

Happy Fathers Day.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 19 2005 08:24 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

I've noticed it, just nw of Yucatan.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Jun 19 2005 10:02 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Happy Father's Day to all the dads here at Flhurricane. Hope you had a great day!

Ticka1

(User)

Sun Jun 19 2005 10:22 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Thank You Mary Ann, LI Phil, Lysis, ticka 1 and everyone else for your Fathers Day wishes! I hope it has been a great day for all...and for some, it still is

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 19 2005 10:45 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

I guess all that disruption will sooner or later feed into Florida.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Jun 20 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Quote:

That line of squally weather between the Yuc and Cuba although nothing important has a weird placement that I do not recall seeing before. I also felt several times this week when I viewed the loops that the frames were in backwards with everything pushing south and east instead of North and West...

The weird circulation pattern that you have been seeing this week is due, in part, to a stalled front along the Northern Gulf Coast and a rather large High pressure area over Lower Mexico.
The high is giving a "backwards" movement to the Yucatan Channel area, and at this point 'semi-blocking' anything from moving further north into the GOM.
Several of the models have hinted at an area of rain forming in the Yucatan Peninsula area this week and moving NE toward the W and SW FL coast.
The high pressure will have to break down a little more to allow this. I'm not sure how or if the front/ trough lying across the Northern GOM will play a part in anything that might develop.
Models I saw earlier were just indicating a persistant area of thunderstorms moving toward the NE from Cozumel, MX.

Current imagery from LSU satellites indicates the -24C line extends from Veracruz, MX to the Ft Myers area to the Melbourne area. Areas North of this line are not likely to have thunderstorm formation, due to the dry air in place. ( S.A. Hsu & Melvin F Martin,Jr)
http://antares.csi.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI0_wv_loop.html

(User)

Mon Jun 20 2005 12:27 AM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Just to add a little to your post, from the Tally AFD...

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ON MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH SETTLES OVER
THE SE U.S. MAIN LIFT & ENERGY WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE CWA...WILL
NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP WATER VALUES & INSTABILITY REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECTING SOME SEA BREEZE FORMATION OVER N FL...BUT
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FACTORS.
OF COURSE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A POSSIBLE LOW OR TROPICAL LOW. TEMPS WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Jun 20 2005 01:01 AM

Re: Happy Father's Day

Another veer off topic, wanted to wish you guys a Happy Father's Day, too. Hope you all had a great day! Dad's are the best!!

(Meteorologist)

Mon Jun 20 2005 01:03 AM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

GFS is the only model to pick up on anything out there, and the cyclone phase diagrams on it show a hybrid structure becoming more extratropical as it approaches shore. I'm going to chalk it up to convective feedback or an overzealous model for now, unless something comes up in another model or in reality to suggest otherwise.

BTW, did you all know that the GFS is only the 6th best global model nowadays? The ECMWF is best, and models from Japan, UK, and Australia are all better as well. The GFS has been pretty active with developing lows this year...I wonder if they didn't change something around with the model this year. Anyway, there's nothing to worry about out there now.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Jun 20 2005 01:15 AM

Re:GFS discussion

Thanks Clark and Coop. Sure is nice to have additional commentary.
I've been looking at the various NOAA Centers and Southern FL NWS AFDs.
All of the above mentioned Centers and Offices including the TAFB (Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch), are aware of the GFS forecasting situation in the SE GOM. All of them are calling it 'model feedback' and are tossing the GOM Low pressure development-out the window.
Most of them do mention precipitation being on the increase for the next day or so.
But theyAre Not looking for any development.

From the Hydrological Prediction Center Discussion edited~danielw
...MID LEVEL TROF/LOW FROM MID ATLC INTO GULF OF MEXICO...
FIRST OF ALL... WILL DISCOUNT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT THE GFS BRINGS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO FL. THUS FAR THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM OTHER OPERATIONAL MDLS FOR SUCH A FEATURE. ALSO...NO MORE THAN 10-20 PERCENT OF 09Z SREF AND 00Z/06Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DEPICT ANY KIND OF DEFINED SFC LOW PROGRESSING NEWD OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. PLEASE CONSULT THE TPC/NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR UPDATED INFO REGARDING CONDITIONS OVER THE NWRN CARIBBEAN/SERN GULF OF MEXICO AND VICINITY...
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

(Meteorologist)

Mon Jun 20 2005 03:13 AM

Re:GFS discussion

Danny and all...take a look at this product we have here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/images/current/wspd.movie.gif (at least for the next half-day to day or so; main website is at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/confidence/.) That is a plot of the "confidence" of the GFS and its member ensembles with regards to surface wind speeds over the next 7 days. Anywhere where you have progressively darker reds (and even black), you have much less confidence in the overall forecast because all of the members of the GFS ensemble don't agree so well on what will happen (like the end of the HPC discussion in the previous post).

Note in the 2-4 day time frame a large bulls-eye coming out of the Caribbean up into Florida, as depicted with a low-pressure system in some recent runs of the operational GFS. This shows that there is very little confidence in the forecast the operational model put out because the member ensembles can't agree on what will happen. So, needless to say, it's something to pay attention to in case it does actually come to fruition...but I wouldn't hold my breath on this one.

Thanks. Edited url for confidence link

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Jun 20 2005 05:16 AM

Re:GFS discussion

Looks like the AVN model is starting to pick up something in the GOMEX

http://weather.unisys.com/aviation/6panel/avn_pres_6panel.html

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Jun 20 2005 06:13 AM

Re:AVN/ GFS Model Feedback

That appears to be the same model that we were discussing.
I believe they renamed the AVN to GFS.
Sept-Oct 2002: Name changes: The AVN will be referred to as the Global Forecast System model (GFS).
http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/model_changes.html

SUBJECTIVE LIST OF MODEL PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
GFS
When specific thresholds in the mass fields are met, convective scheme is triggered and then dumps a large amount of QPF over a grid point - releasing so much latent heat over the grid point that the model is forced to adjust the mass fields by producing a local vertical motion max in the mid troposphere (~ 500mb), a corresponding upper level jet max over the vertical motion max - an intense and small scale vort max in the mid levels (MCV).
The model scales up the mesoscale circulation at mid levels and holds onto it as a real feature for as long as 3 days.

The model can produce precipitation in association with the feature as it tracks along in the flow.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml#GFS

Location in the GOM still bears watching. In case the model might prove correct.
But as I stated earlier, and I have rechecked most of the Centers, No One Is Calling For Development Of This Area in the GOM.
posted @ 0608Z-02:08 EDT- 0108CDT

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Jun 20 2005 10:29 AM

Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

For those that have been following the GFS forecast. Please read the link below for this morning's Area Forecast Discussion from NWS Slidell.
It's educational and informative. Seems the ETA and GFS are giving the forecasters quiet a stir, too! There is Still no mention of any development in the GOM.
Here are the first two sentences from the KLIX AFD~Slidell, LA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION ( edited to shorten post~danielw)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2005

.DISCUSSION...
"WOW...WHAT A DIVERGENT SOLUTION IN THE MAJOR MODEL SUITES. BEGINNING AT 48 HOURS THE GFS AND ETA DIVERGE STRONGLY UNTIL THEY ARE 180 DEGEES OUT OF PHASE. BY 78 HRS THE ETA HAS A SFC HIGH IN THE SAME LOCATION THAT THE GFS HAS A TROPICAL SFC LOW...HMMMMMM..."

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LIX/AFDLIX.0506200726

Last two sentences of this discussion follow.
..."WILL SIMPLY NOT TOUCH ANY OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST ATTM SINCE SOLUTIONS FROM ALL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHAKY AT BEST THE LAST 3 DAYS.
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES...WE WILL BEGIN TO PLACE A SFC LOW WHERE IT NEEDS TO BE IN THE MID TO EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST."

Please check local NWS Forecasts in your area for the extended forecasts.

(Weather Master)

Mon Jun 20 2005 01:19 PM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

This is starting to sound ominous in terms of being able to predict where and when a storm is going to appear, and if it is likely to appear at all. I am sure these prophets are pulling out the short hairs this week, praying that they don't have anything to pop up on them during the July 4th weekend. We know how the blame likes to travel up hill and down hill. I know also that this is what the fuss is all about,. Otherwise they would just say that the conditions do not appear favorable for development and let it go at that.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Jun 20 2005 01:51 PM

Re: Happy Father's Day

Quote:

Another veer off topic, wanted to wish you guys a Happy Father's Day, too. Hope you all had a great day! Dad's are the best!!

Hey guys sorry i wasnt on yesterday but wanted to wish everyone a "late" Happy Fathers Day....tc and be safe....

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Jun 20 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

In regards to development in the BOC, within the past 2-3 hours a circulation has developed in the central BOC this time well off land. Convection appears limited and shear is very strong just north of the system, but not terrible directly over the system itself. It appears that the GFS (AVN) may have been correct after all.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Jun 20 2005 04:29 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

Yes the high will break down as the trough pulls through Florida and high pressure will rebuild in the western Atlantic later in the week. Interesting area of cloudiness and thunderstorms east of the Windwards. I'll bet better than even odds we'll have our second storm before June is gone. CMC shows some development near the Bahamas and a surface low getting nudged westward under a strengthening ridge. The GFS and NAM show some potential development across the Caribbean toward week's end as well. Cheers!!

(Weather Master)

Mon Jun 20 2005 04:30 PM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

anyone notice on vis loop whats going on east of Antilles?
looks like a bit of a spin, nothing closed off, but still decent bit or rotation and sharp trough, and upper winds look a bit favorable

any chance that could develop in a few days?

update: just noticed something else spinning in the Bay of Campeche

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Jun 20 2005 05:01 PM

Re: BOC in GOM

is that a surface low in BOC this morning heading west?

(Meteorologist)

Mon Jun 20 2005 06:00 PM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

Benjamin -- that's not where the GFS was/ie showing development; it shows it elsewhere, in the NW Caribbean, moving across the eastern Gulf.

The GFS still hints at that system developing, which is more likely than not convective feedback. It apparently wants to spin something up later this week too -- something that shows up in the NAM as well because it uses the GFS for it's external grid and the northern Carib. is right along the extent of the NAM's grid -- but I'm not going to put much stock in anything down there right now. My earlier suspiscions were confirmed today by others -- they have changed something in the GFS with regards to the tropics this year -- and until we get a better handle on what it means, I'm willing to write most everything off for now.

There is a bare vortex in the Bay of Campeche now, but moving west against the upper flow and caught in the vicinity of a trough. Waters are warm, yeah, and this is sometimes how you get development...but there's nothing to suggest it is either likely or imminent right now. Too much shear, for one, and a fair amount of dry air to the north, for another. Chalk it up, for now, to something interesting to look at but of no real concern. It might well just be a convectively-induced vortex that was left behind by the convection to the east.

(User)

Tue Jun 21 2005 12:21 AM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

After all it does seem that things may be slow, for now, at least on the AL side of the coin. Several have put up some good stuff as far as models go and their opinions. Clark posted a little while back about the models... the GFS and it's track record. Very true and he also metioned the ECMWF as being the best as of now. I agree on that as I was behind the ECMWF last season and I have a few posts to support that. I just wonder... what happened to the great GFDL

(Weather Master)

Tue Jun 21 2005 12:31 AM

Re: Morning Model Update KLIX-Slidell

I think Clark that is the fourth one of those little vortex's spit out that mess in the last week.Everyone of them go W then S into Mekico.It's just each time a little further N when it spits them out.Just to much shear With the ULL coming NE to SW over the CONUS and one in the Carib heading W.I think it's going to a little while before things look productive for development.Fine by me vac.starts this Sunday.

(Weather Guru)

Tue Jun 21 2005 03:52 AM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

It may be a quiet week...but we are working on collecting two of every animal here in south Florida. If you'd like directions to the arc or have animals to donate please write back.

Yes, we've had that much rain - very tropical atmosphere but certainly nothing stirring here...

(User)

Tue Jun 21 2005 04:54 AM

look ahead

that wave entering the caribbean right now may be more interesting later in the week. bastardi is pointing out that it will be in the nw caribbean as the trough strung down into the gulf splits and ridging builds in.. several of the globals are showing a pressure fall in the area indicative of an environmental response. the man may be onto something. watch the globals to see if they get more enthusiastic about this area for late in the week/weekend.
HF 0550z21june

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Jun 21 2005 01:33 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

It is so soagy here.Rain rain rain.Welcome to the sunshine state.

(Weather Master)

Tue Jun 21 2005 01:58 PM

Re: Quiet Weekend Continues

We will take any rain that you don't want. Our other choice is hot and humid. At least with the rain the temps stay down in the upper 80's.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jun 21 2005 03:08 PM

July, August, September?

what month do you think is more active out of July, August, and September?

I'm just curious

my guess, being fairly new at this is Late August.

thanks for the help, see you soon.

-Ryan

(Weather Guru)

Tue Jun 21 2005 04:55 PM

Re: July, August, September?

Quote:

what month do you think is more active out of July, August, and September?

I'm just curious

my guess, being fairly new at this is Late August.

thanks for the help, see you soon.

-Ryan

Mid-September. It's been said that Sept. 10 is the peak of the season.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Jun 21 2005 05:35 PM

Re: July, August, September?

September is the most active month of hurricane season followed by August.

(Weather Master)

Tue Jun 21 2005 05:40 PM

Re: July, August, September?

I've always been intrigued that the hurrican season has two peaks. Is there anything else comparable to that in meteorology? In other areas, for example temperatures, there are peak cold days in late Jan and peak hot in late July, but there is no second period like hurricanes.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Jun 21 2005 06:04 PM

Re: July, August, September?

interesting the mm5fsu 2005062100 is trying to pick up something strong over the yucatan and move it north in 6-8 days into GOM....from 72 to 120hrs....looks like it comes from the east pacific and merges with something where arlene formed....long summer ahead...... clark how has the MM5 done this year?

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Jun 21 2005 06:13 PM

Re: look ahead

HF has hit on something...look ahead...the ingredients seem to be in place for some West Carribean vulnerability 3 days or so out. If the pattern continues to change, and the trough moves out, and high pressure aloft follows in behind, as it does, lower pressures will develop there both indigenously and from the wave entering from the east. The high prssure aloft may be the oven necessary to "bake" those ingredients into something tangible.

Will watch this daily into the weekend to see what goes.

(Meteorologist)

Tue Jun 21 2005 06:32 PM

Re: July, August, September?

MikeG -- MM5 has been a bit hyperactive this year, but it didn't missed either Arlene or Adrian. I'd not really count on that MM5 solution coming true...tropical cyclones don't develop over land like that.

(Weather Master)

Tue Jun 21 2005 11:05 PM

Re: look ahead

My thoughts exactly. I'll be heading to Tampa tomorrow and will be back before the weekend in time to see a disturbance develop (?)

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed Jun 22 2005 01:47 PM

Re: look ahead

Newer runs stick the system into a slightly more plausible location just east of the Yucatan peninsula (as opposed to developing directly over it).

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