(User)

Fri Jun 24 2005 03:52 PM

The Area Near the Bahamas

The National Hurricane Center's Tropical Weather Outlook for 11:30 EDT today, indicates that there is some interest in the complex system evolving near the Bahamas.

There isn't a clear cut surface low, which would indicate tropical development; but the thunderstorms and turning in the atmosphere are becoming more pronounced.

This is referred to as Invest 94L, the in-and-out sort of disturbance which has been working its way north out of the Caribbean. It isn't purely tropical, as it consists of wave energy being drawn up around the upper low that is has hooked around Southern Florida.

Convection triggered on the flank of the low, the northward moving wave energy, and low level convergence from the easterly flow around the ridge to the north are keeping it an active, stormy area.

This area has a chance to develop. The National Hurricane Center has a tentative hurricane hunter reconnaissance aircraft flight scheduled for off the North Florida and Georgia coasts tomorrow.

Since the system is complex and of hybrid nature, NHC will be hesitant to classify it, so the chances of seeing a named system aren't what I'd call high. Nevertheless the weather along the North Florida, Georgia, and Carolina coasts should be rainy and breezy as the system approaches Saturday and Sunday. Given more time, perhaps three days I'd almost guarantee a named tropical system, but it doesn't have that long.

Elsewhere a small disturbance continues in the Western Caribbean, in a marginal development environment. The conditions there should improve as the upper trough begins to lift out and back away to the north. With a tropical wave moving through there is at least a passing interest for this area.

This disturbed weather should continue west and northwest and may be of interest in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. However, what forecast model support that did exist for it becoming active has become more attuned to Eastern Pacific development. It will also be close to or over land at times. Keep an eye on it anyway.

HF 1647z24june

Event Related Links:
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Static Model Plot of Wave near the Bahamas (94L) from South Florida Water management District
Animated Model Plot of Caribbean Disurbance (94L)

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 24 2005 04:19 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Thanks for the new Thread - - a lot of folks now coming by the desk wanting to know what's up for the weekend - - I book vacations in Orlando - - I'm no MET, but everyone remembers last year and the info I was able to provide thanks to all of you - - here we go again

(Moderator)

Fri Jun 24 2005 05:06 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Question: as that area of disturbed weather makes it's way towards N. Florida/S. Georgia, will the rain become heavier here in central Florida (inland) as it makes it's way there or will it stay a little drier? We're not getting much right now, just wondering if that will change. Also, is there any possiblility that it could make it inland further south in Florida?

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 24 2005 05:20 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

The way it looks right now, most of the moisture is off the coast and to the south of Cent. Fl. As the ULL keeps pinwheeling n/nw it will draw more of that moisture towards Fl. and produce showers. Eventually though it will move far enough north to where the showers aren't affecting Fl. as much, probably starting on Sunday.

Edit-The 2pm Trop. Disc. answered your question about the rain Colleen:

"THE UPPER TROF IS CURRENTLY SPREADING DRY AIR IN FROM THE W OVER S FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS WHICH HAS KEPT THE HEAVIEST TSTMS MAINLY TO THE E OVER OPEN WATERS. THIS AREA OF HEAVY RAIN/TSTMS WILL APPROACH AND SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST LATER TONIGHT AND ON SAT...AND THEN A SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM THE BAHAMAS TO S/CNTRL FLORIDA ON SUN AND MON AS THE UPPER TROF LIFTS N."

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Fri Jun 24 2005 05:50 PM

Central Florida

Humidity is much like the start of Charlie last year in Central Florida - wAYYY up there.. almost feels like a sauna today

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 06:17 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

This is just before the info about the rain you posted...seems this is more noteworthy (from the 205pm TWD):

THERE APPEAR TO BE
SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUD
MASS AND SEVERAL OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS
AND CANADIAN...CONSOLIDATE THESE INTO A SFC LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS AND MOVE IT NW TOWARDS THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND
RECENT TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...

TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HRS IN THE VICINITY
FROM THE NRN BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 24 2005 06:43 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Somebody else is now interested

000
NOUS42 KNHC 241345
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT FRI 24 JUN 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z JUN 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF JACKSONVILLE)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 25/1800Z A. 26/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 25/1530Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 30.0N 78.0W D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 25/1700Z TO 25/2300Z E. 26/0500Z TO 26/1230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:07 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Band out this measured 66 and 39 knots last 2 @ 7000 ft out of N and NNE .

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:09 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Satellite pics and radar suggest one of the surface lows may be developing right along the Florida East Coast near Melbourne Wind direction on the west coast from the NNE and light may also be an indicator of such a forming low.
If so it is much closer to the coast than anticipated.

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:25 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Right, it looks to be just north of Mel, E of Cocoa. Several new cells popping up also over the last 20-30 min's

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:45 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

THIS IS A VERY COMPLEX FEATURE, AS THERE IS CLEARLY A CIRCULATION, BROADER AND SOUTH OVER THE PENINSULA WHICH THE SAT PICS SUGGEST IS AN UPPER AIR FEATURE THAT IS ALSO AFFECTING THE FLOW. HOWEVER THE SUGGESTION OF A LOW FORMING ON THE EAST COAST NEAR MELBOURNE SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY MORE RADAR EVIDENCE NOW THAN AN HOUR AGO.

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:46 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Looks like now Belle Glade and Lake Placid possibly getting some Hail.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 24 2005 07:54 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Oh great, my parents live in LP. I just hope it doesn't come with strong gusts. Don't need to loose the nursery now.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:00 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Hmm? What is the source of this information??

MM

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:05 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

well looks like #2 may form before the end of month. Tropical Cyclone Marine forecast of possible devp.

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:14 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

These are current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for Florida issued by the National Weather Service. These are generally updated every 2 minutes or so. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/alerts/fl.html

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:19 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

StormCoop, nice timing on the poll/post.

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:21 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

These are the June or earlier "B" named storms occuring since the naming of storms began.

Here all all "Second storm of the season" tracks, which would have been "B" storms since 1851:

Dates removed for clarity-

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:33 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Audrey, 1954, Cat 4...

MM

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:34 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

I believe there was a STS before that....

MM

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:40 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Quote:

Audrey, 1954, Cat 4...

MM

First named storm of 1954 was "Alice". Landfall in Northern Mexico as a Cat1.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:47 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Audrey 1957?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Oops--yep, 1957. My bad...nevermind!!:)

MM

SkeetoBite Administrator

Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Jun 24 2005 08:49 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Quote:

Audrey 1957?

Indeed neighbor. Came ashore in Northeast Texas, nearly on the border with Louisiana... as a Cat4

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 09:09 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

I DO remember Audrey killed hundreds in Cameron, La.

MM

(Weather Master)

Fri Jun 24 2005 09:19 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

June 27 in a matter of hours, wiped out every movable object in her path. Audrey killed 425 people, 154 of whom were under the age of 9

(User)

Fri Jun 24 2005 09:41 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

looks like the strongest support for a surface center is well east of the bahamas, so if it has a successful formation, whatever would be out there would come in a bit further north than the earlier model progs.. say myrtle beach to cape lookout. that'd give it more time over water. better chances for a bret if it develops further out.
weak low near nic/hon coast is still just sitting around. not much upper support there yet (it's coming in from the east), but there's decent low level convergence.
beatriz has faded away in the eastpac, but it looks like calvin is revving up south of acupulco. the pac-atl response from beatriz to 94L worked out ok.. maybe the trend will continue and the new one will have an atlantic correspondence in a few days (perhaps that w carib feature).
on the other hand, it's june.. getting one storm alone is iffy.. two is a stretch.
HF 2236z24june

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Jun 24 2005 09:50 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

FWIW, both the Unisys and the wunderground sites now have a weak surface low of 1011mb plotted in the bahamas Unisys surface map

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 10:26 PM

GOM?

at looking at sat and local obs from florida, i am having a hard time think that the weak 1011mb low is still there in the bahamas. does anyone think that a low will form off the sw of florida coast (in GOM)? looking at vis and radar and obs. could there be a low forming near punta gorda? moving wsw?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 11:42 PM

Re: GOM?

Early season stuff can be quite odd. Looks to be a spin just south of eastern Cuba as well. Anyhow, the one interesting thing about the entire basin is that it is very moist. Moreso than I've seen in years all the way to the eastern Atlantic.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Jun 24 2005 11:53 PM

Re: GOM?

Hi to all from eastern nc. Looks as if we may be in line for this one. Remember 1999 when we got pounded with Dennis twice , then Floyd, then Irene. What many do not see is the pattern in the Atlantic may be shaping up like 1999 & !996 when it seemed everything got turned up the eastern seaboard. What are any of your early thoughts.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Jun 25 2005 12:12 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Looking at Miami/Key West radar almost looks like there is a low due south of Marco Island, FL. Poorly defined but you can certainly see circulation...any thoughts?

(User)

Sat Jun 25 2005 12:37 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Have not looked myself but just wondering what radar provider are you using...NWS, IC etc. Things are getting messy down there but I don't think time will allow anything to develop.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Jun 25 2005 12:58 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

I'm actually looking at Nexrad3 - a program I am running locally. The same feature is also visable on accuweather.com's radar.

(User)

Sat Jun 25 2005 01:08 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

10-4. I would guess mid level low at best for now. Models are running on it so who knows what may be by morning. I still think real estate will be a problem for formation.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Jun 25 2005 01:25 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Looking at satellite there is not much there at the moment...just some swirls, nothing special. Just interesting to see it so obvious on radar.

(User)

Sat Jun 25 2005 03:00 AM

All Chips on Table

I'm going with split wave development approach, which is not anything unheard of. Per TWDs a few days ago, the wave producing activity in the carribean was splitting and we really have two things to look at here.

As per 1030 TWO, Carolina residents should monitor for the development of a possible STS or TS from the "Bahama low"...which is the northern piece.

Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Jun 25 2005 09:51 AM

Re: All Chips on Table

Looks like we will have Bret sometime today.

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Jun 25 2005 10:35 AM

Bret today?

Well the disturbance southeast of the Carolinas look like it has a decent shot at becomming either Tropical or Subtropical Storm Bret. IR imagery would seem to indicate that most of the thunderstorm activity is in the eastern semicircle at present. Will be interesting to see what the first visible images show within the next hour or so. And then of course, we have recon going out later too. If they find a cyclone of subtropical or tropical nature, expect warnings to go up for the Carolinas this evening.

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Jun 25 2005 11:10 AM

Re: Bret today?

Well first light visible imagery shows an exposed circulation near 30.1N 76.2W. This position is just to the west of the area of deep convection. The nearest convection to the north and west of the centre is currently in a band which lies just offshore of South Carolina and Georgia.

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Jun 25 2005 12:38 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Visible imagery at 1215UTC shows evidence of weak convective banding now in the immediate vicinity of the centre, and also in a band offshore of the Carolinas and Georgia - seems to be getting better organised, but still resembles a subtropical cyclone in my opinion.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Jun 25 2005 01:33 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Well Rich, it's going to miss Florida so there's very liittle interest on this board today.

(Weather Master)

Sat Jun 25 2005 02:04 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Actually, the lack of interest is not true for me. I am always interested in the ones that are not going to bother Florida, its the ones that are going to bother Florida that I am afraid of. Interest in that case is not a strong enough word. There may not be hundreds of posts because there will not be a panic state. But people all over the world view this board signed in or not.

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Jun 25 2005 03:05 PM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas

Visible imagery would suggest that there are several low level swirls within a larger circulation. Convection remains persistent and strong to the east of the centre, with weaker convection near the immediate centre and also continuing in the band offshore of the Carolinas. Waiting for recon now.

(User)

Sat Jun 25 2005 03:57 PM

no interest?

partially true, but there are folks outside of florida who dig this site too. 'sides, it's saturday morning and we've got one of those 'might be' systems, so the boards aren't jumping.
nhc likes to get all philosophical about systems like this... it's likely to be called subtropical unless a couple of thunderstorms blow near the center. as is it's sheared and fighting subsidence... it may not get the call with recon... but i'd put money on it getting a classification by the time it comes in tomorrow (late morning sunday near georgetown is my guess as either a weak TS or subtrop). the ingredients for a strong system aren't lined up (i wouldn't say they aren't there.. put that low east 100 miles and it'd be a solid ts further up the coast). as this thing moves inland it should slow down, but heavy rainfall amounts should be isolated due to the structure of the system and the fact that post-landfall convection should become more diurnal. i'm not thinking it'll do much more than arlene did. but then, this is still a lot for june.
there are a couple of fairly energetic tropical waves out in the eastern atlantic coming across, too. not very high amplitude and unlikely to do anything out there. still, the same features midway into july would be much more interesting; that time is drawing near as well. i reckon we'll see some activity next month before things really get going aug/sep.
HF 1653z25june

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Jun 25 2005 04:54 PM

Recon

Recon plane has just took off

223
URNT11 KNHC 251639
97779 16324 70308 87100 70100 13014 70801 /5754
RMK AF302 01BBA INVEST OB 01

(Moderator)

Sat Jun 25 2005 08:20 PM

94L

It looks like the low level center collapsed. It's possiblethe LLC is repositioning itself further to the north and east. Hard to say though... it looks like a real mess though.

-Mark

(User)

Sat Jun 25 2005 08:54 PM

Re: 94L

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
430 PM EDT 25 JUN 2005

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. DATA RECEIVED
FROM THE AIRCRAFT THUS FAR INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NEITHER A
WELL-DEFINED WIND CIRCULATION NOR CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT HAS
DEGENERATED TO A TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS TO
NEAR 35 MPH IN SOME OF THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS WELL OFFSHORE.
ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

$$

(Weather Master)

Sat Jun 25 2005 10:01 PM

Re: 94L

Who wuda thunk it!! The low pressure center connected to that glob is over the Florida peninsula. Ok! now we know where the low went. It is very interesting to me that despite the lack of danger in this particular storm. We can see little circulatory rain showers on the radar moving in counter-clockwise motion. Weather is marvelous!

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Jun 25 2005 10:12 PM

Re: 94L

looking at the latest visible imagery does anyone think the system may be organising further to the east. There are some indications of a circulation, but whether it reaches the surface is another question. Good call for NHC, at least its nothing yet...

(Weather Master)

Sat Jun 25 2005 11:00 PM

Password Request

Sorry for the off topic post. All MODS please disregard my e-mails for a new password. I am ok now, thanks.

10 -4

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 12:07 AM

Re: 94L

it isn't concentrating it's energy. the stuff moving out east of north carolina may continue to fester, but stuff just hasn't come together like it needed to, in spite of a lot of the ingredients being present.
heck of a wave just came off of africa. watch it melt like the wicked witch as it goes out into the ocean.
HF 0102z26june

(Meteorologist)

Sun Jun 26 2005 12:38 AM

Re: 94L

HF...interestingly enough, the MM5 (and on some runs, the GFS) actually keeps that wave a trackable entity -- weak low -- into the central Atlantic. SSTs are well above average there -- marginally favorable across the entire basin S of 15N as of this week, which is the earliest I can remember -- and the subtropical jet has finally begun to move northward, now largely north of 20N.

That said, it'll likely still fizzle, as the warm waters out there are really shallow, but if it is able to hold together (in some way shape or form) to the central Atlantic, it'd meet much more favorable waters. Of course, it'd also meet a lot more shear (as of now), but that could change. The whole area between 15-23 or 25 N from the islands east to about 40W has some of the highest heat content values in the entire basin right now, even moreso than the NW Caribbean. All of it bodes for a quick start to the season, likely once the subtropical jet retreats a bit more and the waters near the coast warm up just a tad more.

We'll see if the MM5 and GFS are catching onto something with this...but alas, I'm off to D.C. for the next week. 94L isn't likely to amount to much -- shear is low but waters there are only marginal, with the baroclinic energy for the other part of the system likely winning out over everything else. The surge of tropical moisture will bring some rains to the southeast coast, but I don't think we'll see any development out of this. There is a weak low-level swirl -- probably not even a complete circulation, but a stretched out swirl -- removed to the west of the deepest convection SSE of Hatteras with perhaps a mid-level vortex on the northeast side of the deepest convection. Just don't see anything getting going there, and as mentioned in the first post -- time isn't on its side.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 01:07 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Will it strike Nantucket?

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 01:20 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

No one can answer that as to the precise landfall. I would as my data goes put this "rain maker" on land about the SC/NC border. Just my take

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jun 26 2005 09:44 AM

Re: The Area Near the Bahamas- possibe tropical development

Anouther couple of hours over water and things would have been interesting. Nice mid level spin

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmhx.shtml

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 02:32 PM

NW Carrb?

noticed a flare up of convection this morning south of cancun along the coast and off of belize.... Looks pretty interesting...will have to see it anything to it.... i think this is the same wave (parts of) thats was moving west in the carribean....looking to see how pressures are in the area....look a little high....and upper level winds are a little strong.....**looks like 92e will become a hurricane in near future...susprised not a ts yet

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 02:51 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT 26 JUN 2005

RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED
NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN MOREHEAD CITY AND
CAPE HATTERAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FROM SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH...ALONG
THE COAST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Jun 26 2005 03:01 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

I wonder if anything might develop in the area southeast of Texas. I don't know why it has my attention.

Nothing seems to be mentioned, maybe I am paranoid.

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 26 2005 03:17 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

It has my eye too, but the conditions are going to have to come together and obviously they have not to this point. We have an elevated chance of rain on Tuesday this week which is all the recognition it is getting so far.

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 03:26 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

oh man. there it is over the outer banks... it took too long to form, but put that thing 300 miles to the south and that would have been bret. ssts along the mid atlantic coast aren't warm enough to support a tropical cyclone. but that was close.
next place to watch is the bay of campeche and western gulf. the southern part of that tropical wave that split and gave us 94L is moving into the area, with a weak surface trough from west florida down to belize. an upper ridge is building over the area, and a natural barrier to force low level convergence is strung across the region. everything is gummed up, and should continue to be that way as that tropical system develops on the mexican pacific coast.
model support is so-so, though... chances of another system before july aren't strong.
HF 1621z26june

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 26 2005 04:29 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

HF,
Being all gummed up is that terminology to mean, prohibiting development, or enhancing development.? I got lost around that last metaphor.

(Moderator)

Sun Jun 26 2005 06:17 PM

That's a Tropical Depression

If that's not a tropical depression, then I am hallucinating. good banding, outflow, defined low level spin.... besides the close proximity to land, what is it missing?

-Mark

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jun 26 2005 06:37 PM

Re: That's a Tropical Depression

By gummed up, it means there are too many things going on at the same time which generally will prohibit development. For storms to forum /usually/ they need for other aspects of the weather competing for the same energy to resolve.

I like the STDS put out by the NHC today as I think it accurately reflected the picture. However, it sure seemed like a Subtropical Depression based on the visible presentation and the 20-30 windspeeds. I guess everything isn't getting a name, but there was an obvious surface rotation on my favorite radar, the one out of Morehead City, NC earlier this morning.

The southern part of the wave that spawned 94L (as noted by HF) is still pretty active as was expected. I thought the best the northern end could do was low-grade tropical storm and the best the southern end could do was maybe mid-grade. I'm not sure if anything's coming out of this, but things do seem to be following the original ECMWF runs from the middle of last week that had a ripple in the isobars near the Yucatan on Monday with a TS off the UT Coast on Wed. Later runs of the European kept it further and further south and didn't develop anything with it. The jury is still out as it was going to be at least until this weekend before we could tell if anything was going to get in the Gulf or not, and if so, how it might behave. In my mind, with the battle between the southern part of the wave and the EPAC, the EPAC is going to win with the wave basically tracking across the southern Gulf of Mexico and probably into Mexico by mid-week. But there's still an outside chance something casual could develop and threaten the Texas coast. Wait and see mode.

Steve

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 06:48 PM

Re: That's a Tropical Depression

blood, i wouldn't quite give it that. the surface obs show a closed low, banded convection.. but the min pressure is 1016-17mb and winds are only around 25kt. it's on the coast and going to move along the va coast into this evening.. waters go into the 70s, so it's pretty much out of an environment that can support a tropical system. so i agree with the nhc's calls on 94L.
guppie... gummed up as in there's a surface trough, and everything isn't jetting along westward like it usually does this time of year. features in the tropics like that during the hurricane season.. an old frontal boundary, a trough at the surface generated by an upper low, a thunderstorm complex that drifted offshore.. such features offer an alternative means or augmentation of those means to get tropical systems going. i'm just pointing to more of these 'ingredients' that are going to coalesce for a time in the southwestern gulf early next week. none of the models are that enthusiastic, though.. probably not much for the next week.
HF 1943z26june

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 07:03 PM

Re: All Chips on Table

Quote:

Review this link then see synoptic thinking below: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

Down the road, the southern part of that old wave is leaving moisture in SW Carrib. Thunderstorms not as impressive, but activity is just hanging around down there. Furthermore and most importantly (and not just the ULL pulling north over and east of Florida), is the Upper Low over Southern Texas that is digging South. As the Upper low around florida moves north and the Texas low moves south, don't be surprised to see some ridging develop. As the Texas low continues to move south into Mexico and Western Gulf, this can create a classic development pattern for disturbances in the SW Carribean, which gradually work there way into the central and eastern gulf. On the weaker points...One may also want to note that moister upper and mid level air may also continue to enter the area down the road.

I made this reference the other night. It appears that this mid-upper level evolution is occurring. I maintain the thinking that the NW Carribean is the place to watch. You will notice on todays Water Vapor that the Upper low did continue to dig south into Mexico and Western Gulf. Ridging is building into the Eastern and central gulf as well as the NW Carribean. In fact, the Canadian model is now showing the development of a system "a la" Arlene.
CMC Link: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-bi...;hour=Animation
Water Vapor Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Jun 26 2005 07:21 PM

Re: All Chips on Table

>>blood, i wouldn't quite give it that. the surface obs show a closed low, banded convection.. but the min pressure is 1016-17mb and winds are only around 25kt. it's on the coast and going to move along the va coast into this evening.. waters go into the 70s, so it's pretty much out of an environment that can support a tropical system. so i agree with the NHC's calls on 94L.

1016-17 is higher than high pressure usually is so it was an anomaly for the environment anyway. Subtropical Depression (which was what I said, not tropical depression) seemed evident to me. I could be wrong, but it did have that STD look to it minus the cankers

.

Steve

(Weather Master)

Sun Jun 26 2005 08:17 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

Even looking at it now it still looks like it had a chance you can see the walls drifting off to the NE
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...IM_TYPE=Animate

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 08:41 PM

Re: All Chips on Table

yeah, 94L was close. it just missed it's shot.
that stuff in the carib.. well, i wouldn't say the sw carib can do anything. the weather moving over the yucatan and into the gulf early next week should be the focal point for anything else that tries to activate for the rest of the month.
we may see the cape verde region go active earlier than normal this year. gfs is already trying to track a system out of the region in the extended period. ssts near the african coast are still subpar, but closer to the islands they're more than adequate, and the wave near 10/43 even has a weak low associated with it. i've got a hunch we'll see a couple of those in july.
HF 2136z26june

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 08:43 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

What is up with the closed isobars coming off the Cape Verde Islands as shown in mm5fsu model?:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2...;hour=Animation

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 08:45 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

EDIT:

Hank... you just beat me to my little discovery.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 09:22 PM

It is a TD

NHC and others can say whatever, but based on presentation and wind speed, plus, over water again, it is a td. Dvorak 1.5 easy. Even if the thermal structure doesn't add up, then it would be a std. But, I think not.

Plus--80 degrees water temp is not the holy grail...a number of depressions and storms have developed over sub 80 degree water in recent years...

MM

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 09:24 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

No closed isobars seen...????

MM

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 09:25 PM

Re: NW Carrb?

Oops. now I see them (animation short circuit the first run).

MM

(User)

Sun Jun 26 2005 10:05 PM

Re: It is a TD

Regarding 80F water temps...Yes, systems have developed when water temperatures are less than this, but in the 70's. However, this only happens when the feature is warmer than it's surrounding environment. As a side note "Cliff Clavin Fact", while the surface pressures are higher than "Atmospheric average (1013mb)", it's pressures are lower than the surrounding environment.

With that said and nonetheless, I agree with the NHC on this one. It is not even close to being a TD, STD, TS, or STS. That beautiful represnetation you are seeing in the satellite is a mid level feature. The surface feature is decoupled from this and is weakening off of Duck, NC, while the mid level takes off to North.
The book on this one is closed.
For a closer look, link to NASA Interactive: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 10:33 PM

Re: It is a TD

The buoys shown that it had a well defined LLC as it was moving inland earier this morning. In also the radar shown a very tight packed core with banding moivng around it. A large area of 20 to 25 mph winds with gust up to 35 mph. The satellite shown a very nice system. I'm sorry but this thing was very close.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Jun 26 2005 11:01 PM

Re: It is a TD

I'll always admit it when I am wrong....I took a look and can see the decoupling and the midlevel center (that is what I was looking at).

It may have briefly been a td, but, isn't now.

As an old friend used to say, "Observation without interpretation is of no value'!!

MM

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Jun 27 2005 12:51 AM

Re: NW Carrb? and more...

There is also another area where the last Vis images showed a broad circulation. There is also a flare-up near the center. Check out the below link and look at the bottom right around 12 N and 44 W. Doesn't look like a lot, but lets see if it persits.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

Just checked the Atlantic Tropical Discussion and see the following:

CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W SOUTH OF
15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED USING A
MULTI-DAY SATELLITE LOOP. A DISTINCT CYCLONIC SWIRL IS NOTED N
OF THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.

(User)

Mon Jun 27 2005 02:22 AM

Re: It is a TD

Hi Hurrihj and mapmaster. First. Hurrihj, I think you are right, things came close to coming together for a TD, but it just didn't happen. Mapmaster, keep up your observations. I hope this site remains highly interactive. My impression has been that the posters here really aren't wave mongers, but have an alert interest. I wish more were like the gang here. Being prepared and aware affects outcomes should a storm come in anyones direction.
I learn new things from all of you too. In the short term, I will stick to my guns and possibly eat crow later. This probably seems like hype, but I think the NW Carribean/SE Gulf will be back in the NHC TWO within 48 hours. I think something might get going before thursday. Per my previous posts, the ridge is building even more in the region. Convection doesn't look impressive, but the wave interaction may become interesting here.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Jun 27 2005 03:09 AM

Re: It is a TD

>>It may have briefly been a td, but, isn't now.

It doesn't matter one way or the other, but the effects were there. Extratropical low, non-tropical low, subtropical low, low with some tropical characteristics and partially of tropical origin, they still got an early taste of the season. Forget the MLC, the classification of the LLC could have gone either way. The weather was there. The observations were there. It doesn't amount to anything because even if it was a TD or STD, it doesn't count for named storms anyway. It's just an appetizer.

>>but I think the NW Carribean/SE Gulf will be back in the NHC TWO within 48 hours

Hard to say. There's some weather down there. There's some ridging overtop. But the weather pattern is still too complicated. I wouldn't expect anything to happen before Tuesday if at all. It's just something of a mild curiosity at this point.

Steve

(Weather Master)

Mon Jun 27 2005 03:49 AM

Re: It is a TD

I would have to agrre w. you, there seems to be just too much going on down there. Maybe too much.

(User)

Mon Jun 27 2005 04:02 AM

Re: It is a TD

Steve, Thanks for the input. I do have some agreeances here, but I'd like to explain a little more on why I'm so staunch about the NW Carribean, Central, and Eastern Gulf development during the upcoming week. Complicated patterns aren't always prohibitive to development, but lot's of surface low pressure features or small upper air features can really squelch something from happenning.
In the current case, I'm still seeing something that represents a more "classic" pattern. Waves typically slow down in the western carib. as they come up on central america. It is when energy waves pile up that the chances of development increase. You are right, lots going on at the surface and it is complicated. However, notice the change since this morning. Two tropical waves were definable on satellite. One stretching sw to ne from the Yucatan into eastern Cuba, s. Florida and Northeastward. The second ran from Nicaragua through central Cuba and Northward. These features are pilling up from north to south, and it can be noted that the forward segment of the first wave has shifted from NE-SW to N-S from south Florida down into eastern Cuba and South.
This is just the kind of complicated interaction that can start something to spin up under the right conditions. It's just my beilief that things are moving in that direction considering the upper air features and the wave interaction. Additionally, a lot of the cloud matter being seen to the north and west of this area is nothing but upper air debris clouds and moisture from the E-pac, S. Mex and Central America, but nothing I would consider to complicate of surpress possible development further.
Since it is dark, this wave interacation from Sunday Morning to now can be best seen with shortwave.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir2-loop.html
Thank you for reading, hope I haven't been long winded

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Jun 27 2005 04:38 AM

Re: It is a TD

Not at all. That was a good post. If you use the SSD/noaa site, you can loop the visible which changes to IR at night as well. The 00Z NAM and GFS take the bulk of the rainfall into the western Panhandle of Florida, but they don't really do anything with it. Something of interest was going to be in the Gulf early week, it's only a question of how much interest. The models show some 3" stretching over a couple of days in the 60 hour period, so somebody's getting wet. I'd bet the Peninsula sees a lot of precipitation as well in the next 24-36 hours. I don't have a call on whether any of the rainfall can get as far west as Texas at this point (I think some energy will end up in Mexico west of the BOC). Hey, it's something to watch at least.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Jun 27 2005 04:42 AM

Re: It is a TD

By the way, here's 94L on mid-Atlantic radar. Looks like Maryland and then Southern New Jersey could get a couple of intches of rainfall in the next half day or so.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kakq.shtml

(Weather Guru)

Mon Jun 27 2005 05:42 AM

Re: It is a TD

My uncle called earlier from a state park near Virginia Beach. Said it had been heavy showers all day long - but he had no clue and "almost tropical something" was passing over. He just thought it was a rainy day.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Jun 27 2005 11:53 AM

The 94L system

Here's a recent, (1102Z)visible satellite photo of the 94L remains. From NRL Monterey.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/displ...MOSAIC_SCALE=15

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