MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 11:28 AM |
Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche where Tropical Storm Bret Forms
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7:30PM update
Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the Bay of Campeche.
6PM update
Tropical Depression Two forms in Bay of Campeche, it is expected to make landfall into Mexico. We'll be watching. It has a very good chance of becoming Tropical Storm Bret before landfall.
Original Update
The area to watch this week is in the Bay of Campeche, in the southwestern Gulf. This area has a chance to develop, but it is very close to land and will likely landfall on the Mexican coast before it can gain too much strength.
The conditions at it are good for development, so it will likely develop if it can stay over water long enough . Those along that part of the Mexican coastline will very likely have to deal with depression or weak tropical storm level conditions.
Other than that, there isn't all that much going on this week, and I hope it stays that way for a good while. But it's interesting to look at the waves off Africa, but this time of year I don't expect much from them.
The area in the Bay of Campeche likely to head into Mexico
Dvorak T-Numbers for here support that as well.
Event Related Links:
Animated Model Plot of Tropical Storm Bret
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Bret
New Recon Decoder
Nice Color Satellite Image of the storm area
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 12:43 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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It has 1.5/1.5 t numbers. In has most of the buoys showing a cirualtion. Can we say that it has a pretty darn good chance of developing.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 01:41 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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Will it definitely stay away from the US/Florida, if it does develop?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 01:53 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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It would be nice if it would stay away from US/Florida.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 02:08 PM |
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What do you think about...
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Hey Mike,
What are your thoughts of the wave @ 12 N, approaching 60 W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Looks like it cause trouble in the next few days.
Looking at the Visiable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
There might be some circulation in there.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 02:18 PM |
Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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As I said, I admit it when I am wrong...and claim it when I am right!!
As observed the other day (and there were many naysayers), BOC is the current spot where development is likely...it may not make it due to land proximity, but, good chance for a depression (if it isn't already) and maybe Bret....close to where the last Bret (Cat4 that hit Tx) was...
MM
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 02:20 PM |
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Hey Clark...
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You still dislike my ideas on a possible mid-grade tropical storm coming out of the southern end of the wave axis that spawned 94L?
. Like Superhero Lois Cane used to always say, sometimes systems primed for development just have that look. There's a good shot today we can see some feeding back and development. The NHC has acknowledged as much as ridging builds in overtop. This still looks like a central Mexican coast type of landfall, but I'd be paying at least casual attention if I were down there in South Padre or Brownsville just to be on the safe side. Time is working against serious development, so this is most likely just a rainmaker.Steve
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 02:27 PM |
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Re: What do you think about...
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Quote:
Hey Mike,
What are your thoughts of the wave @ 12 N, approaching 60 W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Looks like it cause trouble in the next few days.
Looking at the Visiable:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html
There might be some circulation in there.
True, but ahead it's not looking all that hot. I don't think that one will do anything right now. The waves off africa are too early. The BOC is the only thing going on the first half of the week.
The BoC storm is a pretty sure thing to affect Mexico, and maybe just the southernmost part of Texas with rains. Right now I wouldn't even think it could go anywhere else. Still worth watching though.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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Visible imagery suggests some sort of circulation, with banding features now associated with the disturbance. Doesnt look like it isa going ot be classified just yet though, and given its proximity to land, it may not get a shot. Probably go the same way as the unclassified system along the central Atlantic coast the other day.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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the 11:30 TWO is out, and nhc is giving us those typical lines of 'significant development is not expected' for the BOC system. this is, of course, since the system is close to land. no recon scheduled either, so the only way this thing will get a name is if a surface stations report strong enough winds. highest i've seen thus far has been 20kt. it does seem to be keeping to the lower rim of the BOC, probably due to landfall near or just south of tampico in 12 hrs or so.
i thought scott's call that this would potentially be an 'unnamed system' were premature the other day.. now i'm getting the feeling he may turn out right. nhc is suggesting it will play this one conservatively. i expected them to call it a TD at the hour, but as it's already being underrated i'm doubtful that it will ever be bret.
the wave that was approaching the islands has stayed flat (low amplitude, elongated cyclonic swirl), fast-moving, and it's convection has puffed out overnight. based on presentation it is doubtful that it can do anything. still lots of rain near the east coast, with a stewing offshore convective complex. i think another very weak low is possible near the east coast as the week progresses.
eyes turn to the eastern atlantic now. globals still develop the emerging wave going into next week. bastardi is already suggesting that it may approach the continent in the extended period, so i'm definitely interested. has a long way to go to be anything, though.
HF 1640z28june
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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I don't mind watching them from this far away...after last year's season, I actually PREFER it.
Not to go off topic, but since he IS a moderator, does anyone know where LI Phil has gone? I've read the last 3 topics and haven't once seen his name. Is he okay? Did he go on vacation? Just curious and wanting to make sure he's okay.
Thanks!
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:00 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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95L is developing nicely and should be a TD soon, if not already. It's running out of room for development but could obtain TS status briefly before it hits the Mex coast.
TG
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:04 PM |
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Recon will go!!!
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ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING INVEST OF AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING
FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE IN THE
AREA AROUND 28/2100Z.
Good news that they will go and what they will find is a healthy system.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Recon will go!!!
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BOC system I found presures near 1004mb. So could be near 1002mb. Without recon we dont know the exact details. Sat data and radar images show a well defined circulation. Bouys report winds around 35mph with the highest gust found near 46mph. It should of been classified as of 11am, not when first vis came out ( since we know from Mex radar there is a well defined cir) but with bouy and ship reports supporting this.
Anyways should be no treat to the U.S but much needed rainfall to southern Texas at the end of the week.
scottsvb
| HanKFranK |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:40 PM |
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Re: Recon will go!!!
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hmm.. didn't check the 2-day recon plan of the day. why a recon today appears only in the 2-day (when the system will be moving onshore by tomorrow) is baffling, but i got my info wrong. contradictory information does that to me.
latest visibles have a small cdo/central dimple feature appearing. if i'm reading it correctly, this thing is spinning up rapidly, and may well end up being more than a minimal system. pretty sure it's a tropical storm now, based on appearance and some of the obs scott is monitoring. so... perhaps it will be bret after all.
elsewhere in the basin, nothing pressing. wave nearing the islands is skidding along at manic pace, its cyclonic signature getting smeared (even though the trough ahead will enhance its convection some). lots of rain up the east coast but nothing tropical trying to go in it. wave near the african coast will be the next spectacle, as the globals are showing their support with consistency. whether the pattern will carry it all the way across is a fuzzy topic. ssts don't warm enough for anything to really get going until past 40w, so anything that swirls up will more than likely get the islands. whether there's a weakness in the ridge off the east coast or not is an ambiguous signal in the models. considering that trough splits are occurring every 10 days to 2 weeks, it's probably overdoing whatever troughiness is shown, but that's not a slam-dunk conclusion. joe b already wants to bring it all the way across, which i have some faith in. will be able to form a firmer opinion near the end of the week.
HF 1935z28june
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:51 PM |
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laughs
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check out the 2pm twd. a surface trough is in the BOC, and a surface low is forecast to develop in the next 24 hrs, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone...
the nhc's powers of observation can be very underwhelming at times.
HF 1946z28june
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 06:53 PM |
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Re: Recon will go!!!
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T numbers up to 2.0/2.0 this one will last a little longer than the mid atlantic coulda/woulda/shoulda been storm, I would be beyond suprised if it wasn't made at least at TD.
-Mark
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 07:34 PM |
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movement
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appears nw?
those things down there can stall. meander....and the dry air west of all that
tropical moisture is somewhat retreating...
hafta study it for a few hours to get a feel....any chance it'll hang out in the water a few days...always a chance, eh?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: movement
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BOC storm looks like Bret; but have you guys seen the mid GOM- that too appears to be swirling but can't determine if it's an upper or lower level low.(95L/25W)
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: movement
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THE BOC LOW IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG TO THE WNW AND IT WILL BE OVER BEFORE IT STARTS, BUT ALTHOUGH SMALL, IT IS CLASSIFIABLE NOW...BUT CAN'T BE MORE THAN 75-100 MILES FROM LAND FALL NOW...OH WELL
THE CENTRAL GOM IS THE UPPER EXTREMITY OF THE WAVE, NO SIGN OF CIRCULATION THERE.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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Colleen - Phil is on vacation for a while. He will be back soon.
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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I believe this is a TD. Someone must be sleeping...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 08:52 PM |
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95L
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NRL has not changed yet, 95L is still 95L, it seems to be cutting close, so probably no classification at 5pm. Recon may still be investigating.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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It really doesn't matter if it's a TD or a disturbance. I don't get why such a big deal...
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:11 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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True... the effects are going to be the same regardless of what they call it. The only difference is that people will take this more seriously if it "becomes" a cyclone, even if only for a few hours. In the end, why not? It just feels like 'the man' is trying to cheat someone. Think back to last season’s un-named cyclone over Hattie, and the one spawned by the ruminants of Ivan that did not receive a new name.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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This storm is moving much faster then the storm that was over Hati. But as of l2z run's the consensus was for more of an Allison type storm. Now they shoot it off into the Pacific. I remember analogs that JB presented, and they all supported a recurving storm. The recon plane probably did a part in model variations from the 12 and 18 z runs'.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:21 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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No recon data has been inout into a modl---it is JUST getting there.
Definitely a TD, probably close to a storm= 2.0 would put it there.
Central Gulf is certainly showing a lot of vorticity.....
MM :?:
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Focus Toward the Bay of Campeche
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Input into a model...:)
MM
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:24 PM |
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classified..
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the 5:30 TWO is out, and says that the system is a tropical cyclone 'very near t.s. strength' and that recon is incomplete. i guess they want to put out one advisory.. not have to issue one at 5pm and then another at 6:15 when they find gale force winds.. or something. but anyhow, there's our classified system.
HF 2219z28june
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:28 PM |
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Re: classified..
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Thanks Hank.
what'd i do? -HF
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: classified..
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does anyone think this has enough time/organization to become a TS before landfall?
official forecast for TD2 has TS intensity by 5 am
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: classified..
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what'd i do?
You're the man.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: classified..
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prolly, but then the nhc likes to go conservative with these things. there's recon in it.. when the vortex msg gets back and they explain their current call (the system will be classified initially as t.d. 2), maybe we'll get a lead on what they're attitude towards the system is.
HF 2249z28june
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:57 PM |
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Re: classified..
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HF, what are your thoughts of the landfall intensity?
| Unregistered User |
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| Tue Jun 28 2005 09:59 PM |
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Re: classified..
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EDIT: to rabbit: Tropical storm warnings have been issued, and it is moving slowly with a bit of a northward component, so it has some time yet to develop. The center is extremely close to land, but I think Bret may be on the horizon.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:07 PM |
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recon
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the max fl wind recon snagged was 40kt.. ohhh great. so really what we have is tropical storm bret. 10% reduction yields 36kt or about 41mph... they're definitely playing conservative.
rabbit my take is.. just what the nhc will probably say in the their advisory. the system will move onshore on a section of coast south of tampico that runs sort of diagonal to the track.. probably around 2am. it may or may not be ranked a tropical storm at landfall, because the nhc may or may not choose to call a tropical storm a tropical storm.
HF 2302z28june
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:09 PM |
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recon info
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The recon data shows flightlevel winds of 40kt, maybe 40 mph at the surface. Either way, it really doesnt matter, except for people with the name of Bret who may want their storm to be a memorable one.
Of course I hope that we needent have any "memorable" storms this year
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: recon
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i saw the wind speed forecast and it says that the chance of TS in 12 hours is 60%
and to show how rare it is--years with multiple storms in June (since 1950)
1957--TS#1 and Audrey
1959--Beulah and TS#3
1968--Abby, Brenda, and Candy
1982--Alberto and SubTS#1
1986--Andrew and Bonnie
2005-Arlene and Bret?
it is also interesting to note that TD2 failed to become a tropical storm in 1976 (shear), 1977 (shear), 1982 (landfall in Belize shortly after developing), 1983 (shear), 1984 (shear), 1991 (too poorly organized and ran out of water), 1992 (shear), 1994 (inland in SC about 15 minutes after developing), 1999 (inland in Mexico about 1 hour after developing), 2000 (shear and water temps), 2001 (shear), 2003 (shear), 2004 (shear; regenerated 5 days later)
then again Bertha in 2002 was a surprise developer, winds at 30 mph but became a TS right before developing, and this one is better organized than that one
i will venture to say it will be upgraded around 8 or 11 pm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:18 PM |
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Re: recon
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| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: recon
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>>then again Bertha in 2002 was a surprise developer, winds at 30 mph but became a TS right before developing, and this one is better organized than that one
I remember Bertha. I went out to the point on Lake Pontchartrain and got splashed by waves.
Steve
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 10:47 PM |
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probable bret
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it looks like a storm to me...but it's mute...as far as real impact...just an end of the year numbers game...movement appears close to nw, which will give it more time to develop...if it meanders more northerly...which it's not...it's on a beeline path really...but if steering currents died...it would sit there. Lot of them do down there..
are the steering currents strong enough to push it inland?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 11:48 PM |
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bret
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nhc has upgraded the system to bret as of 8pm. new advisory indicates that the pressure has fallen to 1002mb and the forward speed has slowed to wnw at 5mph. the storm probably has 6-8hrs before landfall, so it may inch up to being a 50mph storm or so. slow movement should cause there to be locally extreme rains. nothing outside of what this region sees every 3-5 years, though.
that's two named storms in june. i have a feeling that july will match or exceed that count.
HF 0042z29june
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Jun 28 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: bret
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I just wonder how everyone voted in that poll question I put up a few days ago
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:02 AM |
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Re: bret
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Wanna go for three? Coop. HF. There are 48 hours left in June, Z Time.
I don't see any other 'Bear Watch' areas.
The new wave off the African coast has lost a great deal of punch since moving offshore.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: bret
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Give me 12-18 hours and I'll let ya' know
I think I am done for June however!
| HanKFranK |
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| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:22 AM |
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three
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no way. i don't see anything that can organize inside of 48hrs. now if you were to run the period to, say, the 4th...
eyeball those globals and their attitude towards the east atlantic wave. euro and gfs both putting a tropical storm near the islands on july 5th on multiple runs is enough to grab my attention.
HF 0117z29june
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: three
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Hey, just trying to spice things up a bit
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:54 AM |
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bret on a pogo
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last recon fix has the pressure back up at 1005mb. that'll teach me to expect strengthening...
nah, actually stuff i said earlier is ok. should get a strong convective flare overnight as the diurnal stuff blinks out and the land breeze gets kicking. i'm still thinking it will max around 50mph/1000mb.
HF 0149z29june
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danielw
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| Wed Jun 29 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: bret on a pogo
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Last fix is not indicating a center, or eye, as before.
Looks like a pocket of drier air has intruded. Rel Humidity dropped to 79% inside the center. First fix had RH of around 97%. With a closed 'center' 3 miles diameter.
Storm machine not in high gear.
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 02:06 AM |
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Bret's running out of room....What's going on at 8N, 48W?
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Probably too far south to develop, but seems like it could be close to TD status.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: three
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I voted "yes" in your poll. I'm not sure if I want to vote on any more systems forming, LOL!
We're getting soaked here...my feet are turning into flippers. They just issued a River Flood Warning for the Peace River in Bartow.
Katie...thanks for letting me know about Phil. I get worried when one of my kids are missing!
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 02:12 AM |
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Re: bret on a pogo
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It seems possible that the dropsonde missed the center on the last fix. Also the last fix position was a little NE of the previous one so its also possible that Bret is nearly stationary although looking at sat loops it seems to be moving wnw maybe with a little more north component that earlier today.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 04:57 AM |
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Weird
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Colleen.. did I not just say the other day that central florida seemed to feel like the start of Charlie last year? Now we have a TS in the Gulf?
Weird..
I said the same thing a week before 91L went up the Gulf..
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....;gonew=1#UNREAD
I think I am going to stop saying that this year.. nobody ever listens to me but the hurricane maker.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:12 AM |
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Re: Weird
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Even more weird weather.
Gulfport, MS is reporting over 3.40 inches of rain between 1 AM CDT and 4:23 AM CDT.
With heavy rain still falling.
The Jackson, MS and New Orleans, LA NWS offices are reporting that a weak surface low has formed in the Chandelier Island chain, just southwest of Gulfport and east of New Orleans.
The surface low is nearly stationary. Allowing thunderstorms and heavy rains to train over the same areas.
Seems like the GFS predicted a low in that area
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:15 AM |
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Re: bret
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I voted yes, I even complimented you a day or two ago regarding your timing
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:42 AM |
Re: Weird
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Take a look at what's developing out in the tropical Atlantic. Several models are indicating a strong tropical system approaching Puerto Rico in the next 5 -7 days
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jun 29 2005 12:00 PM |
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Re: Weird
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I was watching the wave approaching 60 W yesterday.
Today Barbados has pressure dropping and winds picking up.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TBPB.html
Wind from the ESE (110 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 KT)
Visibility 4 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Cumulonimbus clouds observed
Temperature 82 F (28 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
Looking Forward:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058
Station 42058 - Central Caribbean
shows winds up as well.
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Steady )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: Weird
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wow, we got some serious rain last night!
It was a river down the road. You could see the current and everything. Amazing how in just a short span of time, you can swim in your lawn.
Colleen, I have to agree with you about last year and this year feelings. Only thing different is it seems like we are wetter this year than were last year at this time. Which if we have another active season, I don't know what South East Polk County is going to do. Crooked Lake is already closing in on Hwy 27 which I remember being able to walk across most of that lake when I was younger so to see it up that high is quite frankly a little scary.
And who needs TV personalities to tell us the weather, I have it about down. Just dry my hair walk out side, if it curls - we are going to have a wet day, it it stays straight for more than an hour - we are good to go with warm, dry air. Girls, you feel me?
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jun 29 2005 02:00 PM |
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Re: Weird
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Katie, it isn't weird. Just deep tropical moisture and allot of sun. Both the peace river, and the matatee river are forcast or allready above flood stage…and this really isn’t the place for this.
| Unregistered User |
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| Wed Jun 29 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: Weird
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Brett has been downgraded to a tropical depression:
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET WAS
LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 21.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 15 MILES... 20 KM...WEST OF
TUXPAN MEXICO.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF
BRET FARTHER INLAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY OVER WATER. BRET WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Weird
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Katie didn't say anything was weird...she was commenting on how much wetter we are than last year this time. You have to admit that we have had much more rain --- especially in the southern part of the state -- than we did last year. She's also correct about not needing a TV broadcast to tell whether or not it's going to rain based on what her hair does. Lots of people can tell in different ways -- their hands hurt, their knees hurt, etc. whether or not we are going to get rain. Whenever we have a low pressure system near us, I can tell because my right ear is extremely painful...it never fails. If my ear hurts a lot, I know we're going to get clobbered by t-storms.
I have to believe that before there were TV's, weather satellites, hurricane hunters and all the fancy gadgets we have today to predict weather, people could gage the weather based on their own instincts.
As for Bret being downgraded, I'm not that surprised since it wasn't that impressive of a storm to begin with...I'm just glad it isn't forecast to cause a lot of destruction.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: Weird
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Lysis - yeah, not a good place at all. I don't think that most of the communities near the Peace River in Bartow were able to even move back because of the flood damage before, so, this will only add salt to the cut.
I know my dad's nursery in Lake Placid is barely staying above water too. So, all in all, Florida just needs to dry out a bit.
An observation though, do you think it is possible that the turtles laid their eggs higher to avoid all the standing and rising water and not an outlook to the hurricane season? I know there was a discussion at one point, but, I am starting to wonder if it has nothing to do with hurricanes and more to do with flood waters. I dunno, just an idea.
| adogg76 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 04:06 PM |
Re: Weird
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Hmmmm.....seems all is eerily quiet on the east coast here in Brevard. Not even a slight breeze in the air! Seems strange with all the activity today??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Weird
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Ladies... there is a tropical cyclone in our basin (albeit not for much longer). While I am endlessly intrigued about how your bodies have an innate ability to predict the weather, can we take this conversation to some place more appropriate?
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:13 PM |
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storms off coast
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Not to change the subject off of Bret, but ... what is going on with the huge pop up of storms off the SouthWest coast of Florida?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:20 PM |
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Re: storms off coast
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I think the wave just past the islands is the next area of concern. The GFS and ECMWF both indicate something approaching Texas in the early mid-week period next week. The playa is the wave further back, but with the last two storms, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see another tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico by next week. /wait and see approach
Steve
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:20 PM |
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Re: storms off coast
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I believe that the storms you are speaking of are related to all the tropical moisture in the GOM. It's a perfect set-upfor t-storms: lots of warm tropical moisture, a little heating of the sun here and there, and an unstable atmosphere. There was a cluster of storms down towards Ft. Myers this morning and the local mets said we could get some severe storms later this afternoon.
As for Bret, I think his lifespan is just about over.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:40 PM |
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Lysis
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I am very aware of the fact that there is a TD in the basin of the GOM. I am even more aware of the fact that he will be dead in about 12 hours when he interacts with land. If this was a storm that was a serious threat to any land areas, I can assure you that I would be more concerned. However, this is not the case.
I would also like to remind you that this is a forum for weather hobbyists and the comments that I made about how people can read the weather because of the way their bodies react IS weather related. I am not taking anything away from the forum by mentioning these phenomena that have been proven in scientific experiments. Moreover, it is not your place to tell me or anyone else what we can and cannot discuss on this board. I have been here for a long time and I think that most people that are regulars here will vouch for me when I tell you that when the going gets rough I do not post anything that would take away from an impending disaster. I went through 3 hurricanes last year as did Katie and many here. Had I been talking about Natalee Holloway or the war in Iraq, your comments would have been appropriate and the moderators would have erased my post without blinking their eyes. So far they have not done that but if they choose to, I will respect their decision.
Now, let's just start over and I hope you have a good day.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 05:48 PM |
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Re: Lysis
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While I am not sure what your past hurricane experiences have to do with this, you have been here longer than I have, so I suppose you have the right of way. I am not a moderator anyway.
Let's be nice to one another...OK.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 06:34 PM |
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Re: Lysis
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I wish you would register so that I could reply to you privately instead of taking up space on this forum. That being said, what I mean is this: last year I went through Charley, Frances and Jeanne. In those instances, I knew that because there was a lot of information that needed to get out to others, I didn't post something unless it had something to do directly with each of those storms.
Now let's put this baby to rest.
Thank You.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 07:26 PM |
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Tropical Wave
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I see where the models are picking up on that Tropical Wave and developing it. However, the forecast problem appears to be whether or not a trough will pick the system up and recurve it. If not, it could be a problem down the road, as the water is much warmer than normal across the central atlantic and caribbean.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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The globals had something going on there 360 hour a couple days back, but I'm not akin to this behavior. There's actually a strong Upper level ridge pushing off the east coast as we speak, this will depart and result in a blocky pattern over the east coast. Now according to the GFS, this will prevent any track that would lead to a east coast landfall, and keep it south. By 144 hours the disturbance is already in the leeward islands...I would imagine the shear would be great in an area between two highs, therefore development would be hindered.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 07:42 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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Jamie,
I'm talking about the first wave, not the second. The second (the one I called the playa) will have more issues with a trof than the islands wave. The islands wave is already up against a trof that is migrating down to the SW (already has its nose into the Pacific Ocean). So as soon as that backs away, a ridge should build overtop. With high pressure entrenched across the Atlanic at least for the next 4-5 days, I think it's a Mexico or Texas system most likely, but obviously, it's WAAAAAAAAAAAY to early to even say that since all we have is a wave anyway. But it looks pretty solid on sat.
Steve
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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Seems to be GFS and MM5 are picking it up more so than the others? Are there others you are looking at which are more pronounced?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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I haven't looked at the 12Z's today at all, but last night's ECMWF (European) run even closed off some isobars. While it did the same thing with what became Bret (and was too far north) it was the only model from 6 days out that showed that ripple coming through the Yucatan channel.
I'll look at the models later and see if they're doing anything with the forerunner.
Steve
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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Has anyone ran the NOGAP model today? It shows something going on in the NGOM about 140hrs out.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 08:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Wave
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NOGAPS is not a long range model, more like a mid-range model. I wouldn't trust it that far out.
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SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Lysis
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Quote:
...I would also like to remind you that this is a forum for weather hobbyists and the comments that I made about how people can read the weather because of the way their bodies react IS weather related...
...Now, let's just start over and I hope you have a good day.
That's rich.
My joints ache when the pressure drops. Especially my knees and hips. Must be from all the long hikes (25 miles or more at a time) in the Marine Corps. Jeanne seemed to affect me more than Charlie or Frances. I recall my ears popping at one point when the remnants of the eye of Jeanne moved over head.
Our bodies are amazing machines that are very sensitive to our surroundings and environment. Before satellites and radar, that's about all we had.
I for one am greatful for everyone's input in these forums.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 09:40 PM |
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Body science
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Here here, agree 100% with Colleen, who epitomizes her fine name!!
My 2 cents worth, now, back to your regularly scheduled hurricane season.
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Body science
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the best way to handle a post you don't care for...control the urge to respond and completely ignore it.
can't believe flaming would start to rear it's ugly head on this board.
Ed
Clermont, Fl
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:45 PM |
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Now Back to our Regular Programming
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Thanks for all of your input, and most of the output too!
While this isn't the "Storm Forum", we do need to try and stay On Topic.
I didn't say anyone Was Off Topic, but I think we came close enough.
Note: Personal attacks will be removed from the board, and the sentence will be left up to John, Mike and ED. Not necessarily in that order.
Thanks.
Those of you that aren't registered. Please feel free to register. We don't do popups or ads.
It allows members to PM you instead of having to post it on the board.
I've been watching the 'playa' tm Steve, since it rolled of the African Coast. At that time it was more than 10 degrees, in length, N to S, and contained a large amount of convection. Once it passed into the Atlantic, the convection dropped to almost half it's previous coverage.
GFS has been picking up on this wave for the last 24-48 hours. However, as big and tough as it looks. The GFS is taking it to the NE side of the Lesser Antilles. And then into the Central Atlantic.
Along the southern trailing edge of this wave GFS is indicating a smaller, more intense vortice at 850mb. This vortice is predicted to move on a more westerly track. But the mountains of the Lesser Antilles manage to knock the spin (helicity) out of it. Wave does maintain a poorly visible signature into the Caribbean Sea. But I don't recall seeing it pass Jamaica.
GOM...a few surface lows with rain and 10-20kt winds popped up now and then in the GOM. None were able to maintain a vortice or TS force winds at 850mb.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 10:46 PM |
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Re: Body science
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Next week could be interesting....watch Joe Bastardi's video (I know but it's free!)
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
Very interested in viewing the model runs the next couple of days into early next week.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 11:51 PM |
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low formihg in gulf
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low center forming south of mobile look at local radar
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Jun 29 2005 11:56 PM |
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the playa and the forerunner
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eyeballed joe b, checked steve's commentary.. noticed some new stuff in model runs.. yeah, this is going to be an interesting weekend.
steve's playa is very large and it's tilted longitudinally. makes me think it is developing too quickly in the models and tracking too far north. it will probably start to go friday or saturday.. my reckoning is that it's best chance to catch the trough is to develop sooner. as for the trough, the models are consistently showing recurvature on it. as we've got good support for the playa to get its act together, the timing, organization rate, and latitude of whatever consolidates will figure big in where this sucker could end up. that trough will also be splitting when the playa is bearing down on it, so it may charge right into it rather than sweep out to sea ahead of it. both euro and gfs are recurving it though, so there is more confidence in that scenario at this point.
the forerunner.. something i'd been moderately interested in but ignoring.. is that wave near 65w, which the swiveling tutt has blown up to have a monster signature. i hadn't noticed the euro toying with it near the yucatan over the weekend... bastardi pointed that out and steve has added his two cents worth. just recently noticed that nam is developing a low over the weekend in the northwestern caribbean.. it divides the upper trough out and has the backing along the pacific itcz pressing into central america again. got to watch the models to see if they keep seeing lowering pressures near the yucatan over the weekend.
there's an outside chance that a low develops in the trough strung over the southeast u.s., but low probability it could significantly develop. it's nature would be dubious at best.
bret is still well structured in spite of coming ashore as a tiny system. bastardi has alluded to it having been stronger based on signature.. i was thinking the same thing myself. will be interested to see the post analysis and any surface reports from its landfall point (tuxpan and tampico should have some interesting pressure and wind data).
anywho... active june about to transition into an active july.. i think.
HF 0051z30june
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: the playa and the forerunner
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Very interesting video Joe has.I can only hope he is wrong.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: the playa and the forerunner
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Yes, that was interesting. One thing (among others) that peaked my interest was when he was talking about the bluefish near the Jersey coast line. My Dad loved to go fishing for bluefish, but he always did it near the end of July and August....just like Joe said, except that they are (the fish) acting as IF it's July or August.
I take it he has/had a problem with the NHC? That was interesting to listen to, also.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 04:38 AM |
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joe b
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colleen, that's typical bastardi. he takes issue with the noaa/nhc official line on things all the time. accuweather has taken that attitude to government weather sources in general. i do feel indebted to the guy... i've learned a lot from him. he usually stays a step or two ahead of the government sources.
far as the bluefish go.. i remember those things from maryland. never was any good at catching them.
HF 0532z30june
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 06:56 AM |
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Re: joe b
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Yes, JB had some very interesting info and insight. Anyone know where I could find a overlay/comparison this year/last year of air pressure, surface temperatures, winds at the upper, middle and lower levels? I hope it is ok to write this
) Use to keep a boat in Ellington/Mayo MD and use to go Blue Fishing all the time but as stated, later than now. My first blue as a kid, caught and he caught me. Left him on the line, young/dumb, went to take him off the line, thought he was sleepin or dead. Got him off the line, son of gun bit my finger, darn near all the way through. Still got the scar LOL. I miss Phillips Crab House !!!
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 11:57 AM |
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A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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I'd like some input by the meteorlogical gurus (you know who you are~ Clark, Jason Kelley, HankFrank...just to name a couple) on the feasibility of the scenario presented in Bastardi's video actually occuring this early in the season. Is it really possible to be staring down a major hurricane approaching the Southeast US coast next week?????
I posed this same question on another weather forum and a pro met stated that the pattern set-up was very similar to Frances's environment of last year. This met said that, if Bastardi's east coast trof misses the tropical wave currently over the eastern Atlantic, then it is quite likely the system will strengthen dramatically as it turns back to the west toward the Southeast US coast.
Any comments?....could this be our first "real" threat of the 2005 season???
--Lou
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 12:08 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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While you are waiting for your answer. I would like to point out that complex of thunderstorms in the Western Caribbean this morning. It is awsome and huge. I know it could just be yesterday's land run-off, but the critters in my area are acting "funny" again, aside from the yellow rain coats and slickers.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 12:34 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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I can just about assure Florida a safe weekend - - (I'm going to Savannah) - - but I have watched with great interest the emerging CV waves. I distinctly remember many METS indication in April and May that the CV season was going to be early this year, and strong, because of elevated SST's. I guess the question becomes has the current activity changed the prevailing SST's enough to make a substantial difference?
(off-topic material removed - not that there hasn't been a bunch of it before this post as well - please stay on topic.)
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 12:46 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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Looks like FSU is keeping the Carib mess west @ 120hrs, close to where Brett touched down. Could the Experts also check my post @ 2:56am for overlay/comparison info, thanks
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 02:36 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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It's definitely been an interesting June, and like others have said, will probably transition into an active July.
(off-topic material removed)
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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I just noticed GFS picking up a circulation at 120 hours. They are developing it from the wave at 11 N - 32 W and closing the circulation at 120 hours at 22 N - 58 W. Is ther any additional support for this development??
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: A Hurricane threat next week for the East coast??
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If this pattern continues we will have a very busy late season...I think it is very rare to have the waves from Africa show such persistence this early, and the real player the bermuda High is now setting it self up in position, where that settles in the next week or two will have a lot to say about location of these storms in relationship to CONUS later in the season.
For the immediate: Watch the SW Caribbean again...High pressure to the North, an exiting ULL to the west and the moisture train off the So. America continent, and there is some signature there already according to the TWD today.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 04:54 PM |
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two more cents
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that stuff in the sw caribbean is more show than substance for now. it's all well ahead of the approaching wave axis, though it's propagation offshore, the ridging aloft, and the convergence line north of panama indicate that as the wave moves into the western caribbean the environment will support it. nam this morning was still trying to develop a surface trough/low east of the yucatan by the weekend.
the playa is showing signs of sharpening today. convection is modest north of the itcz, but you can see cyclonic turning in the low levels and what may be a weak surface low near 34w. off to the sw a strong convergence line is anchoring the leading edge of the wave and augmenting the bulge in the easterly surface flow that the wave can potentially close off against. i really didn't expect to see the level of organization that i'm seeing out of this wave.. it's probably going to be an invest within 24 hrs. how quickly it organizes is tricky since the environment ahead is dry. i think it will stunt the development of a depression until at least late saturday. the water temps don't really start to rise until west of 40w anyway.
do i think this thing will develop.. good chance.
HF 1745z30june
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 06:03 PM |
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two more cents
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That circulation near 34W reminds me of Francis; but it is interesting to see the conveyor belt of waves streaming out of Africa this early in the season- perhaps we will have an early CV season. Ironically, if hurricanes were to from this early I'd bet they wouldn't be as strong as late season systems beacuse the water temps are not as warm as they could get later on. In any event early systems would have the benefit of cooling off the sea surface temp later on-thus preventing monster stroms from developing. So- perhaps it's better for all of us if CV season starts early.??
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 06:09 PM |
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Re: two more cents
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are you saying the system in the Atlantic will be an invest?
its more likely to be in the Caribbean; if you look at satellite loops you can see a definate turn as well as strong easterly winds comming across from the Pacific, similar to what was going on when Arlene developed
caribbean system
update: forgot to update my numbers--officially two storms for June (i seriously doubt we'll have Cindy by the end of the day)
my forecast now-17 storms (remember i base this on storms per month, i will not change the monthly forecasts at all, this is essentially forecasting how many more i think there will be, which will not change)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 06:16 PM |
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Re: two more cents
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You are reading my mind. I was wondering about the early CV season cooling the SSTs off. Might be a good thing.
Never thought I'd look at an early CV season.
A continous train of waves should keep some of the ingredients at bay, or at minimal levels.
5 tropical storms versus 5 hurricanes.
Water tables are high so I'm not sure about the tropical storms. Would need to be fast movers to keep flooding down to a minimum. Hurricanes seems to move faster as their steering currents are higher in the atmosphere.
Plan for the worst, and hope for the best~late Wade Guice, Harrison County, MS CD Director
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 06:44 PM |
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Caribbean
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
220 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005
TUTT LOW FORECAST JUST NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N 86W AT 24 HRS WILL MOVE WEST INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA BY 48 HRS AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N 92W BY 72 HRS. THE TUTT LOW WILL ADVECT ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND JAMAICA THROUGH 72 HRS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY. AS TUTT DRIFTS WEST EXPECT IT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH ITCZ MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION...EXPECT DAILY RAINFALL OF 15-25MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY MAINLY AFTER 24 HRS.
If you look real close. At the SW Caribbean. You can see a vortice center (eye-like feature), on the follwing links.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VNG12-15152005181.jpg
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/VNG12-15452005181.jpg
Much better version at this link.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES15452005181aOUVnr.jpg
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 07:11 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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I ran the models early this morning and the MM5 model had already picked up on this bringing it to the NGOM in 120h. None of the other models had picked up on it. I will check them out later today.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 07:32 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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ACTUALLY THE LOOK OF THE CARRRIBEAN FEATURE IS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS DEFINITELY UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE I CERTAINLY DEFER TO THE EXPERTS, THE VIEWS FROM SPACE DON'T CONFIRM ANY MOMENTUM INTO CENTRAL AMERICA AS REFERRENCED IN THAT DISCUSSION.
LETS SEE HOW IT LOOKS TOMORROW. IF IT IS STILL IMPROVING AND IS OFF SHORE THEN I THINK THE FORECASTERS WILL HAVE TO REVISIT THIS THING.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Right there w/ you, check my 8:46am EST. Even now FSU is consistent w/ this morning. How far off from the 1996 Bertha Path would the CV storm be? Nevermind, answered my own curiosity http://www.atmos.umd.edu/~stevenb/hurr/96/bertha/bertha_v2.gif
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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SW Caribbean system has gotten the attention of NRL.
Click on 51E.TCSP-EAST
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables
As long as system is in the Caribbean, with a slight chance of moving toward the NW Caribbean and GOM.
We should probably keep the posts here.
If it should cross over to the Pacific, then posts would go in the " Other Basins" forum.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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I should say it would http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES17452005181d72vAv.jpg
Good shot of system from 1:45 PM EDT this afternoon.
When it was just starting to get attention.~danielw
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 09:08 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Why is the Caribbean system listed as an E. Pac invest on NRL? Because the NHC predicts it will move into the E. Pac, or is that an NRL error? I've never seen that before, NRL focusing on a system on one side of Central America and listing it as an invest for the other side.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 09:18 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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If you'll go back to post number 37702. It's on the bottom of the previous page.
I posted an excerpt of a forecast discussion there.
They give a little better reasoning to the 51E classification.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 09:37 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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In regards to the Caribbean feature, I was impressed by the eye-like feature that was seen for about 4 hours earlier today on both visible and infrared satellite. I was wondering if Clark or someone else might know how common it is for a system of such little strength to form an eye-like feature especially in the initial phases of development.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 09:38 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Thanks for the post Daniel. But I'm still a little unclear on this. The relevant part of the post you directed me to just says, if I'm reading it right, that the TUTT is predicted to move westward. I understand that, and that the NHC predicts that the disturbance, or at least a part of it, will move westward. But my question about NRL classifications still is there.
By now I realize the answer to the question pretty much has to be that yes, NRL will classify an invest as an EPAC one even though it's in the Atlantic basin, as long it's predicted to move westward; NRL likely would've corrected any error on the site by now. But I just never have seen that; has that happened before that anyone knows of?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Quote:
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
220 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005
TUTT LOW FORECAST JUST NORTH OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N 86W AT 24 HRS roughly 18Z Friday WILL MOVE WEST INTO NORTHERN GUATEMALA BY 48 HRS roughly 18Z Saturday AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N 92W BY 72 HRS roughly Sunday 18Z. I separated this sentence from the next. As I missed the NW turn into the GOM, when I read it. This is consistant with one of the Cyclone Phase Forecast Models from 12Z this morning
THE TUTT LOW WILL ADVECT ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND JAMAICA THROUGH 72 HRS. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 20-40MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY. AS TUTT DRIFTS WEST EXPECT IT TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...BELIZE...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH ITCZ MOISTURE OVER THIS REGION...EXPECT DAILY RAINFALL OF 15-25MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 40-60MM/DAY MAINLY AFTER 24 HRS.
This is from the Hydrometeorological Center and not the Tropical Prediction Center or NHC. Please use official NHC forecasts for planning and preparation purposes
New Thread~ SW Caribbean. Please post there. Thanks
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Caribbean
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New thread so head on over....