MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 10:00 PM |
Southwest Caribbean
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Saturday, 2 July AM Update
NHC is watching the SW Caribbean disturbance closely, and there are signs of development this morning. A Hurricane Hunter tasking is likely tomorrow, and further development is possible with the system, as the environment around the system is become less hostile and more favorable. Keep watching...
Original Post
Lots of focus has been paid attention to the disturbance in the Southwestern Caribbean It has a somewhat startling appearance on satellite, but the structure of it is not conducive for development.
The chance for development graph for this system:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*----------------]
Pressures are not falling, and I honestly don't think the situation around it will improve enough over time for it to develop into much, if anything at all. We'll be watching it, but don't expect any development out of the system.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 10:42 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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>>But my question about NRL classifications still is there.
It's for an upcoming test per University of Miami's Derek Ortt. I asked the same question, he said it was a test.
The 2 in 10 shot you guys have listed is probably accurate. But I'm betting that graph creeps up within 48 hours. The convection and the wave are starting to bust through the shear from the TUTT which (to me at least) now appears to be cut off from its earlier source. A shortwave (which actually looks more like an ULL) has alread passed the northern edge of the TUTT which should pretty much continue to stretch and become a non entity until the next one forms. Once the wave action gets beyond that shear zone, it's anyone's guess. My early take is that this poses a potential threat to NE Mexico or the southern or central Texas coasts. We'll have to see.
Steve
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 10:46 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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The MM5 model carries it to the Southern Texas coast
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 30 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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The new 18Z GFS is taking a small 850mb vortice across the Northern Yucatan and into the Galveston/ Beaumont area around noon on Wednesday.
Not anything to speak of, as Mike said.
Houston is probably going to break an all time June record for rain. 0.08" this month.
They can probably use a good shower ot two.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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To clarify on the NRL designations: there is a big field project during the month of July in the waters just off of Central America in the E. Pacific called TCSB, Tropical Cloud Systems & Processes in long-hand. It's the fifth in a series of similar projects over the past 15-20 years or so...mainly focusing on tropical convection and tropical cyclone formation (or what happens with waves that form...as well as those that don't form). They've got that program set up for the forecasters down there to have easy access to the microwave imagery & other related data.
As for Bret...well, I'll have to eat crow. It kinda popped up on me -- I've been in Washington D.C. all week until now -- but definitely had the look of a tropical cyclone. That in the SW Caribbean piques my interest, but I'm not terribly concerned. Everything is shaping up for July to be an active month, however, so let's hope that we at least get some sort of break before it begins.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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That 39 west and south of 16 north based on MM5 this morning and afternoon looks to be plotted a bit more south now. Would love to see an overlay of this one and Bertha.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Certainly looks as if it has potential to be more than a small vortice, your thoughts? http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES02152005182h2DYbk.jpg
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Jul 01 2005 03:10 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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I think you might want to bump the scale up a little bit there. A 2? The system is moving into a favorable area for development and it's blowing up tonight like a nuclear bomb. I'm surely watching it a lot closer than I would give a 2 of 10 to.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 03:38 AM |
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stuff to watch
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sw carib feature has stolen the show as far as attention goes. globals have been tracking the moisture wnw into the western gulf by the middle of next week.. if development occurs along the way the pattern would be such that it turns north and hits the u.s. (louisiana or something), so definitely worth watching. 11pm two mentions that the system will be in a favorable environment... i'd watch for the itcz like surface trough north of panama to turn up a small low on the wave axis as it advances. there's already induced vorticity in the atmosphere as the convection has been kicking down there all day.. i'd say that in that scramble we'll see a low pressure are develop near san andres island tomorrow.
wave near 40w.. it's large and diffuse, but very good signature still and low pressure trying to develop in the sw-ne oriented atmospheric turning. as the system gets near 45-50w water temperatures are much warmer; i'm thinking that a discrete surface low will form out of this wave some time saturday. think this system will organize slowly and not go north of the islands and turn up at 60w as the models had been doing for days.. but stay weaker and further south.. and be with us for days to come.
gfs showing more suspicious features past the current wave.. tis the season.
HF 0432z01july
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 03:40 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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There's no surface reflection yet, and the 850mb vorticity analysis doesn't show a whole lot there yet, either. Wind shear is low and getting lower -- tendencies are strongly lower -- and, of course, as long as it stays away from the west coast of the Caribbean Sea, it's in some of the warmest, deepest waters in the basin. Aiding the convection is an area of diverging winds aloft to the east of the upper-level ridge building across the region.
Might see an invest on it tomorrow if current trends continue, but you also have to factor in that we are into the nighttime hours where convection tends to fire in the tropics due to the nighttime convective maximum. Weakening upper low near Belize and departing upper-low northeast of Puerto Rico should help outflow a little but have negligible impact otherwise. I might give it a bit higher than a 2 now, but remember -- there wasn't a whole lot when the post was written, and it's certainly not for-sure that we get something there.
As an aside -- any development we might see out in the central or eastern Atlantic is likely going to be hindered by a fair amount of mid & low-level dry air over the next few days, as is present now and forecast by the models to be there. Get it to about 50 W and you might see something, though. Heat content has been pretty high in that region most of the early season, though not quite as much so now as it was a week or so ago. Don't see much reason to go against HF's reasoning above.
Anything that gets going in the Caribbean -- or doesn't, for that matter -- should follow a path similar to Bret, perhaps with a bit more of a northward component as it moves into the Gulf.
Bottom line: check back in the morning to see what happens. It's got a shot, as does anything this time of year down there (and I'm not going to write anything off this time around), but until it can stick together and become a bit better organized, it's just another convective "blob" to watch.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 AM |
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Southwest Caribbean
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MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION (edited)
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUL 01 2005
GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 25N/26N THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFTING N TO AROUND 28N MON AND TUE. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN AFTN.
THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SLY FLOW W OF 95W SAT NIGHT AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS SLIGHTLY OVER W TX. FRESH E TO SELY FLOW RETURNS TO SRN GULF S OF 25N EARLY MON MRNG...SPREADING TO N GULF EARLY TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E FROM SW ATLC. SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT COVER ENTIRE GULF BY TUE EVE.
A FEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE FSU MM5 SUGGEST A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND MON...POSSIBLY TRIGGERED BY A TROPICAL WAVE. NEITHER MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ECMWF...GFS/NAM...FSU MM5 AND THE
CANADIAN ALL SUGGEST A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN AND MOVING INTO THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH MON...BECOMING LESS DEFINED TUE.
full discussion at following link
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 11:23 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Yep, I still consider a 2 about right. IT did flare up overnight, but it hasn't persisted, and that's one of the main things I key off of. There's a few more things going for it now, development wise, but organization still isn't one of them.
The scale is a measure of how much I think it will develop, usually over 36-48 hours, beyond that I'm not sure, but by then the presense or lack of organization will tell the story.
What I look for when I come up with that numbers, are watching long sat loops, looking at forecasted conditions beyond it, looking at conditions around it, climatology and the time of year, and looking for any signs of persistence. It's just not meeting that right now to get a high "score". Although the forecasted conditions are in its favor, some of the other things aren't now. It's a learning process to pick up on these. I may very well be wrong, but I hope not. I really would rather have nothing to track at all. I very much dislike what these storms can do.
If I'm missing something let everyone know, or if you have a question on why I might say something. I'm very anti-hype in general. I'm not a met, I'm a programmer with a strong interest in not having to deal with storms, but want to know the facts if one does occur.
It sure did look impressive on satellite overnight, but looks aren't everything. I may change it later today if things persist, or I can find more good data. My approach is to look for reasons for it not to develop, rather than to look for ways it could.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 02:09 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Well, come morning, most of the convection has died off -- though some may be trying to reform further to the southwest. The upper-low is still there, east of Belize, however. The convection dying off may not be a bad thing necessarily -- large bursts of convection can spin-up a low-level vortex and precondition the environment for sustained convection later on down the line -- but does signify that nothing is imminent.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 03:25 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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yo yo whats up evry one new year looks to be an active one alla 95'. Talk to you all later
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Jul 01 2005 10:19 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Look like a center is slowly emerging sw of Jamaica---that is the center of a large radius turning....
MM
| Unregistered User |
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| Fri Jul 01 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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The media is taking interest in this wave all of a sudden.. interesting.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 01 2005 11:14 PM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Are you referring to the wave south of Cuba?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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This evening's Tropical Weather Discussion is very informative, and quite interesting.
From Africa to the GOM.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/012351.shtml?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 02:28 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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One the best and thorough preliminary action write-ups I have seen.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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The most thorough discussion I've seen in years.
As close to a picture as you could ask.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 08:48 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Still watching the Western and Northwestern Caribbean, and the Bay of Campeche' areas for possible development.
Ed posted his 'heads up', (in the 2005 Storm Forum), for a probable "Invest" flight into the Caribbean area in less than 24 hours now.
Overnight water vapor satellite loops are showing not one , but two, mid-to-upper level lows in the Cuba-Yucatan Peninsula region.
Main vortice is rotating N of Grand Cayman at 08Z. With the Tropical Wave that Ed referred to, located SE of Grand Cayman, and adjacent to Jamaica. This vortice is moving slowly toward the WSW toward the Cozumel, MX area.
Second vortice has a more ellipitical shape and has moved from over Belize to near Merida,MX at 08Z. Outflow boundary pushed off the Yucatan into the eastern Bay of Campeche around 04Z, and has all but dissappeared at 08Z. Convection beginning to wrap around the south side of the vortice, over Belize, and back into the southern most Yucatan Penisula area.
Buoys are indicating the usual diurnal barometric changes at 08Z. Nothing spectacular noted. A few may be 1 mb lower than this time yesterday.
It will be interesting to see what happens when, and if the two upper lows meet. Especially with the tropical wave in close proximity.
0944Z update. Upper low just south of the western tip of Cuba, and north of Grand Cayman, appears to be developing high thin cirrus from south clockwise through northwest. I'm not sure if this will qualify as 'outflow', but it definitely indicates the shear is lessening overhead.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:32 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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DW, sent you a PM. MM5 since yesterday has had this clipping Cancun and curving up into what looks like Dauphin Island and Gulf Shores @ 96 hrs. And then around that same time it looks like the one we have been watching in the E.ATL. will be on top of Jamaica around the same time
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:58 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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Whoa there! Don't go so fast. Here's the discussion from:
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 631 AM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
..SOUTHEAST
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH...ALL OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE CARRIES A TROPICAL SYSTEM NWD EITHER NEAR OR ONTO THE CTRL/ERN GULF COAST THIS PERIOD. THE NAM/GFS ARE AT OPPOSITE ENDS OF THE SPECTRUM HERE...WITH THE NAM CURIOUSLY OFFERING THE MOST AMPLIFIED OF THE 00Z SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER FL AND THE ERN GOMEX SHOULD PROMOTE A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...FELT ITS STRENGTH MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE AT THIS POINT. THEREFORE...CHOSE TO LEAN MORE TOWARDS THE CAN GLOBAL WHICH OFFERS A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT IS LESS INTENSE. REFER TO THE NHC OUTLOOKS FOR THE LATEST INFO REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL STORM.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 11:13 AM |
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Re: Southwest Caribbean
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THe majority of the 00Z models at the link below have the " system" from the Caribbean going ashore at a location between Brownville, TX and the Western Panhandle of Florida. As many know, the actual location of going ashore changes every 12 hours as the models are fed more recent data.
Basically at this time, Saturday morning, watch the tropics cautiously. But have a good weekend too.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Please consult your local NWS site for official forecasts and statements.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 03:37 PM |
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emphasis
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globals got bored with that east atlantic wave. it's still out there, still amplified; even has a small (nowhere near the overall low level vorticity it had a couple days ago, though) surface low. convection has been very sparing, though. the wave envelope was also large, and sort of disjointed. they still track it west into the caribbean, but it isn't shown developing much (although the amplification remaining on the wave makes it implicit that it could develop given the right atmopsheric profile). i still think it can do something, but my development over the weekend theory from earlier isn't holding much water.. not much at all.
doing a little better so far on the western caribbean wave. that surface low i'd envisioned isn't there either, but there is a broad, slow gyre at the low levels, adequate to extensive convection, and a good and improving environment aloft. i'm fairly sure this will develop over the next few days and make a run at the central gulf coast (read louisiana) around wednesday.
one other thing of interest... there are small rumblings of mjo activity starting in the opposite hemisphere. it'll be a month before any of it shows up on our side of the world, but it may contribute to 'clustering' development at times this season.
HF 1631z02july
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 03:45 PM |
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Caribbean Development
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As per the latest TWO, there appears to be signs of development between Honduras and the Caymans. In fact, i think there could be evidence of a circulation trying to become established in the vicinity of 18.8N 82.8W. Its difficult to tell, but there does seem to be at least some weak banding hinting at this on the visibles. Any other thoughts?
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Development
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I think it has a shot at making it. To me it is looking better and better each hour on vis also.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 05:16 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Development
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The local media keeps pointing it out and showing the steering pattern of winds over the Central Florida region. I think they are getting excited but are holding it in until the weekend is over and more people are paying attention.
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Development
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NRL now has an invest up for the Caribbean system......
it's looking better and better.....
--Lou
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Jul 02 2005 05:53 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Development
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Some of the news stations are talking about the SW steering flow across Florida that we have had for the last two weeks or so. Their implying that if this wave in the carribean developes, it will get caught up in the flow, and push it across Florida. I think that's a bit going out on a limb this early, but who knows. I really hope it doesn't end up doing that, we have had enough rain.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 05:55 PM |
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Re: Caribbean Development
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT SAT 02 JULY 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-036
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 03/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 03/1645Z
D. 19.0N 86.0W
E. 03/1830Z - 04/0030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HOURLY FIXES AT 04/18OOZ
IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 08:30 PM |
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recon
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if i was in louisiana, i'd start contingency planning for a hurricane around wednesday. got a hunch that this thing will develop, cross the corner of the yucatan, and deepen significantly in the gulf early next week. can't go further than that.. do think that this is a named system inside 36 hrs. recon will probably fixing a center tomorrow.
as far as the system posing a threat to fla.. nah. 500mb ridge is building right over the state, weakness in the subtropical ridge axis will be 90-95w around the middle of next week. one of the shortwaves on the upper trough to the north will probably grab it and start it's recurvature around 27n or so.
as if it needed some criticism to show signs of life, the wave east of the islands is perking up today since my comments earlier. the sw-ne double-barreled profile it had last week is less strung out, and potentially going to focus on the convective v in the itcz that it's made. a vortex will probably start to tighten there, nearing barbados and the lower lesser antilles sunday. upper environment is ok, but a lot of saharan desert air in the area. it's broad and in a subsidence environment, so it won't spin up quickly if it does. unlikely we'll see anything out of this sooner than early next week. the models tracking the wave discretely as far as 80w makes me think it isn't going away.. even if it doesn't develop.
less prominent wave near 30w. eastpac disturbance south of the gulf of tehuantepec making a showing. active july pattern in the atlantic.
HF 2124z02july
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: recon
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I not sure about it getting that strong but I agree about LA.... to the MS/AL border for landfall.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 09:05 PM |
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Re: recon
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I'm with HF on this one, though I don't think I'm willing to go that far on intensity just yet. Organization is improving, though the area of low pressure in the region is still rather broad. Look for something somewhere near 18N/83W (as of the time of this post) if anything is going to happen in short order. It does have a good bit going for it: favorable upper level conditions and a projected path across the warmest & highest heat content waters in the entire basin (particularly the central Gulf). The 850mb signature is fair to decent, getting a bit better concentrated with time, with the convection showing signs of trying to congeal into banding features -- and, most importantly, showing signs of persisting.
A couple of weak upper-level lows are located to the northwest of the storm, one along the western tip of Cuba and another along the northwest coast of the Yucutan, but are progressing to the northwest themselves and should not play a major inhibiting role on devleopment (unless the disturbance tries ingesting one). If anything, they may be just far enough away to aid in outflow while providing a divergent flow over the storm (all the better to enhance convection). Land will be the biggest factor in the short-term, as the Yucutan lies directly in its path. It could miss and go through the Yucutan channel, but that doesn't look likely at this time.
There's nothing out there to suggest an impact for Central/South Florida, but the entire northern Gulf coast should watch this one over the weekend. The system should move towards the west-northwest to northwest in the short-term, with a turn more towards the north likely once it enters the Gulf. A shortwave trough is approaching the Gulf coast, currently located in central Texas/Oklahoma, but may pass by before the disturbance gets there and only affect the disturbance slightly (intensity and track-wise). After reaching the northern Gulf coast -- in what state of development I'm not sure, but in at least some identifiable state -- the disturbance should make a hard right, likely affecting much of the southeast. Upper & mid-level winds are moving at a good clip across the U.S. now, a stark departure from early last month, meaning an Alberto (2000) or Georges (1998) scenario isn't terribly likely should that path begin to materialize.
Conditions are favorable for something to happen, but I would like to see a bit more model support before going gung-ho about it all. Needless to say, those between Houston and Panama City should be watching this one, as it could throw a monkey wrench into the return travel home after the 4th of July holiday.
| schmoo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: recon
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should New Orleans get any weather out of this system?
We have been soooo dry!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: recon
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Clark... what do you mean by "alberto"?
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: recon
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ok with the post i saw from guppie...do u think that florida will see any of this storm?...if so what parts....thanks becky
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:03 PM |
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Re: recon
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Please do not plan your preparations around my posts as I am no meterologist. I love to follow the storms and read the professional opinions on here. If the storm gets close to Florida's West Coast we will see some higher tides and some rain squalls. I have little to no information. I just recall from last years models that the first models on any storm were always too far to the left or the right of the early predictions. The rule of Thumb is to be prepared for the worst.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:04 PM |
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alberto/fla
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think clark meant alberto 1994.. the tropical storm that rained 20" on the alabama town i was living in at the time. it was cut off from the westerly flow and just kinda meandered around after going inland... very bad flooding on the flint river and sw georgia in general. another such rainy, cut-off storm would be allison 2001.
as far as florida goes.. i'll re-emphasize.. unless you're in the panhandle i wouldn't worry much about the nw caribbean disturbance. the ridge building over the state should steer the developing system nw into the gulf and north towards the central gulf coast. if it goes into the lower part of florida, i'll pick up the beer tab for the nation of ireland for the next year, aite?
interesting that the two at 5 is still ignoring the wave nearing 50w. i'm guessing that it will be invest quality tomorrow or monday.
HF 2258z02july
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: recon
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oh no...im not saying that by no means..i understand that your not a met...but i was just curious considering the fact that you are a guru and have some knowledge in this area...
im keeping you that on the tab;)....
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:27 PM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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It is almost worth a trip to Ireland haa haa. But seriously, I think I am seeing two areas spinning unless it is optical illusion. I was wondering if we would wake up in the morning and find that the vortex relocated itself during the night. Just thinking. (wet firecracker in with a load of dynamite)
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 02 2005 10:51 PM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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I have to agree with HF on strength with this one, it's heading into increasingly warmer sst's with decreasing shear 200 to 850 hPa shear. The only limiting factor to the strength would be as Clark said the chance of it hitting land. Climatology has it going through the Yutacan Channel. Though the recurving track is not readily supported by the latest model runs, but I'll go with because I like the idea of the storm riding the periphery of the subtropical ridge.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:00 AM |
Re: alberto/fla
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That's not a EYE is it? Zoom in [image]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html[/image]
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:14 AM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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No, of course not
What you're probably seeing is some low toped level cumulus clouds associated with the building of the Upper level feature to the surface.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:39 AM |
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Caribbean
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The WV Loop is really good right now.
High level clouds in and around the W Caribbean system. Diurnal convection in E and S quadrants.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
The wave that Hank mentioned earlier just east of the Lesser Antilles is showing some flareup. Both in size and intensity.
Located near 13 N and 50 W.
Is this the "playa" wave that Steve refered to earlier this week? GFS was progging it to pass NE of the Lesser Antilles.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Playa as in refrence to a beach (in spanish), or in refrence to "player?"
I remember seeing something a couple days back, but now the GFS/AVN ain't to enthusiastic for developingt that feature.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:57 AM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Quote:
Playa as in refrence to a beach (in spanish), or in refrence to "player?"
Well, Steve had spelled it as 'playa'. Reading, storm that was playing around. At least I'm fairly sure that's what Steve meant. Especially since it's on again and off again on the models.
BTW: Heads up to folks downstream of the MCS moving through New Orleans right now. Lots of wind damage reports (trees down), from parishes in LA, and a few counties in MS.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Caribbean
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Uh...thanks. Slightly off topic, there seems to be a mesocyclone right now over New Orleans as Danny indicated. Looks pretty bad..
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 01:53 AM |
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Re: Caribbean
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QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 625 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
DAY 3...
..GULF COAST LA/MS APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM FROM GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD SPREAD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.12Z NAM BRINGS HVY AMNTS INTO LA BY END OF PERIOD WHILE 12Z GFS TARGETS COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. MANUAL QPF SLOWED SYSTEM SPEED SOMEWHAT AND KEPT MAXIMUM INITIALLY ACROSS SE LA.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus04.KWBC.html
**********************************************************************
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 143 PM EDT SAT JUL 02 2005 (edited~danielw)
VALID JUL 02/1200 UTC THRU JUL 06/0000 UTC
..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE 12Z NAM IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH THE 00Z RUN BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE THE WAVE MORE SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE 12Z GFS IS ALSO MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS IN BRINGING A WEAK WAVE INTO THE GOMEX AROUND THE PERIMETER OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
..TROPICAL WAVE INTO THE GOMEX
THE NAM REMAINS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS HAS MUCH WEAKER WAVE THAT ROTATES QUICKLY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN BOTH LOOK MORE LIKE THE NAM THAN THE GFS...BUT NEITHER VORT MAX IS AS STRONG AS THE NAM. THE CANADIAN IS CLOSE TO THE NAM WHILE THE UKMET TAKES THE SAME DIRECTION BUT SHIFTED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE RECOMMENDING A PATH SIMILAR TO THE NAM BUT NOT AS STRONG.
http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus10.KWNH.html
All of these products are from previous model runs and are subject to change. Please consult your local NWS office for official forecast and advisories~danielw
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:14 AM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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So is it an eye wall developing? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:26 AM |
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Re: recon
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Whoops -- didn't mean Alberto 2000 -- meant Alberto 1994. Sorry 'bout that.
actually.. july 3rd was the day alberto came in, 11yrs ago. it was sort of cool, as i'd just moved to alabama.. to experience the weak rainy storm... except it came back on the 5th and didn't go away for days. the lake we'd been in a cabin by the last week of june had a dam break and went bye bye... in all 32 people died in the flooding. that was a mean little storm. HF 0611z03july
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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No -- what you are seeing is an array of convection around an upper-level low off of the coast of Cuba, the one noted in my discussion from earlier today. It has an ominous look to it, but it's nothing at all -- really.
The real action is due south of there by about 500 miles, east-northeast of Belize. It is starting to become even better organized -- funny how the TWOs from the NHC keep emphasizing that with more and more superlatives, I guess -- and I think we may have another tropical cyclone on our hands before Sunday ends. Bets? Better than even odds at this point, I'm afraid, assuming it stays offshore long enough to get going. The better developed the system at landfall, the better of a shot it has at doing something in the Gulf. No models are really picking up on a tropical cyclone in the Gulf per se, but they don't always excel at this task.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:30 AM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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Posted earlier, ok, too much going on today to keep up, sorry. Buoy data from Station 42056 - Yucatan Basin, Wind and Waves basically doubled throughout the day.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:39 AM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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No problem -- I understand entirely!
My biggest goal, particularly after last season, is to keep there from being alarm amongst the masses. There are so many people who were affected by TSFH (TM LI Phil) last year that anything out there is going to cause a reaction -- particularly when the media in central Florida picks up on it. All too often, a convective mass out in the ocean is not going to form into something. They should all be watched, sure, but sometimes everyone (myself included) can get a little too carried away doing so -- not to mentioned worn out in a hurry!
It's in picking out those that have a better chance of developing and focusing on those, then watching them as they develop -- or don't develop -- through time. Not everyone gets it right all the time, as we all can attest to, but the key is in watching the regions and waves that have a chance to develop...and not getting excited about everything else. I'd love to "wavemonger" with the best of them -- but you just can't do it when so much is on the line.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:22 PM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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Clark your goal to keeping the masses from being alarmed with unwarranted words is admirable. As one of the premier posters on this site your words do carry more weight than those of others.
Most everyone has the urge to speculate and monger and of course the earlier in development you call it the better when it works out. This too is enjoyable, especially when the ideas presented are backed up with reasons why the poster thinks a scenario will occur. Post that include ideas to back them up can be educational to those observing what might happen and what actually does happen.
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 12:37 PM |
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Re: alberto/fla
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Western Carib looking more more concentrated on IR this morning. I can't wait to see the visibles. The TWO sounding even more like they feel this one is going to develop.
The ULL exiting off west tip of cuba is moving NW. I would think carib disturbance will follow it. The High ridging to the NE should help keep it away from Florida. Let someone else have the rains for a change.
Hurric
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 02:30 PM |
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TD? and the Yucatan
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Just had a quick look at the visibles, and it seems as if this disturbance is certainly getting its act together. Think we will see it classified today when the recon gets there, probably as a TD, but possibly as a TS. Looks as if the centre could track across the tip of the Yucatan or through the Yucatan channel. This would mean less time overland / interaction with land, and allow more time for development - especially in the favourable conditions expected.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Wrong, wrong, not today.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Convection is increasing in all quads. , as the storm becomes a more symetrical warm core system. At this current track it would end up traversing the Yucatan Peninsula, and putting in the BOC-unless recurvature occurs. The fact is though the subtropical ridge has not really built over Florida, and the disturbance is too far away for any interaction with the shortwaves over the southeastern united states. Shear and dry air will be invading the BOC in the next 36 hours, so that could throw a b monkey wrench in the idea of a 'strong storm.' I don't believe the NHC has ran any new model runs as of 10'o clock...at least they have not been forwarded to my program.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Would you care to enlighten us as to why this system will not be upgraded to TD status today? I'm always willing to share ideas and learn something new.
ED
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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11:30am TWO would seem to contradict the previous anon's post
(TWO Edited)
Full Product
"Tropical depression could
form later today before the system moves over the Yucatan
Peninsula...and an Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the area this afternoon."
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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To close to land, not enough time to form. Once in the Gulf then yes
| Hurric |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Would anyone like to post their thoughts on coords for the system if it does attain td status today?
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:10 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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That would be quite hard on account of the storm doesn't have a center.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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I am pretty sure it will make TD by the end of the day. Most of the global models yesterday had the system turning back to the east after crossing the central GOM, today so far the globals have shifted back to the west with all the others with a pretty tight group on TX/LA. As always I am sure they will shift again and again but I'm sticking with a LA/MS hit.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 05:11 PM |
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invests and lamentations
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i'm just gonna say louisiana for now. coop probably has the right idea.. eastern part of louisiana. all of the models taking it further west have a weak, near non-entity.. the sort of thing that would get pushed around by the low-level flow and not feel the 500mb level shortwaves to the north. i do reckon it'll be deeper than.. say, 1010 or 1012 mb. my reckoning it gets 48-60hrs over the gulf, with a moderately moist atmospheric layer and the setup for a radial outflow... yes, 1010 mb is a tad high. i think recon will find a depression, and it may reach t.s. this evening before moving onshore. the yucatan is a little hilly, but with plenty of warm water on all sides the system shouldn't lose much organization. pretty sure it will be hurricane cindy when it gets to louisiana later on wednesday.
as for the playa.. weak low jetting along with a strong low level flow, low latitude.. not going to develop like i was thinking. i didn't reckon on the strongest vorticity taking a path towards/along the south american coast. sometimes the drag and differential flow around features like that can help a low close off, but in this case i think it's going to diminish the development threat for some time and delay this thing from developing over the weekend. the globals are showing a weak low or just tracking the upper part of this disturbance across the caribbean to near jamaica. i'm not sure what to make of it.. at it's current breakneck pace, even with a supportive upper pattern, it's hard to see it organizing much until it slows. the progress of the wave should start to slow tue/wed as it nears the central caribbean, with the upstream effects of the upper ridge over florida (upper weakness on it's east flank) and possibly the effects of what i think will be cindy at the time. if this one develops, it would probably be a threat to florida... so those of you who like to lament that florida is ever-threatened (you who live on a flat peninsula that sticks out into hurricane-infested waters!), keep a sideways glance on it. i'd give it 1/4 right now for development over the next 4 days.
other 'n all that, things are peachy.
HF 1803z03july
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: invests and lamentations
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I was not going to speak of the possiblity of "cindy" just yet but I agree with you. I saw several indications of that this morning. I have my "good" eye on it
What I really meant to say was "dennis"
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 05:34 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: invests and lamentations
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Here is the latest model run's 12Z, to better show Hank's reasoning.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 05:46 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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are you forgetting Bret a few days ago? that became a storm near land
and there was a depression in 1994 (#2) that developed 15 minutes before landfall in South Carolina
also, to whoever can answer: what is the possibility of the Antilles system developing? i see what appears to be a low centered near 11N/55W that seems to be closed off, though not well organized
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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The donut shaped cloud system is not closed, just convection equally distributed around it. If it was closed then it would be a depression, right?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 06:02 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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it lacks the organization at the moment, but i see the low-level clouds circling in all directions--even with a closed low, it may not be organized enough to be classified
my question is, does it have a chance at developing given the location and organization?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 06:36 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Quote:
Has anyone read JB's take on this potential development?
Bastardi's column stated that the only thing that would keep 96L from reaching cat 3 status is a track over the Yucatan as opposed to a track through the Yucatan Channel.
Nevertheless, I think we'll find out rather soon just how good of a chance 96L has at reacing hurricane status.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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I have observed the radar over cuba that is from the key west long range and the rain is moving southeast to west northwest (sort of), the rain over Central Florida is coming in from the southwest in an almost training effect. My understanding is that high pressure falls into low pressure, so going against dry air would be like attacking a brick wall assuming pressure gradients are far enough apart. That might have the center, if there is one, crawling up the east coast of the Yucatan as opposed to crossing it. I am not going to try to guess whether there is a closed low or open low or whatever. This is just some faint memories of flight ground school back in the early 70's and I may have all the meterology I learned backwards or not at all at this point.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: TD? and the Yucatan
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Part of the Tally AFD...
.SHORT TERM...THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY BECAUSE THE MOST
RECENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT PICKED UP THE DEVELOPING LOW NEAR
THE YUCATAN VERY WELL. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS JUST SHOW A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVING WEST INTO MEXICO, WHICH WOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR A
WEAK SYSTEM STEERED BY LOW LAYER FLOW. HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL BE STEERED BY A DEEPER LAYER
FLOW, WHICH WOULD TEND TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST...OR PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE FARTHER EAST DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 07:30 PM |
Amazing!!
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What is really amazing is, here we are on the 4th of JULY weekend, and the tropics look more like August...even late August.
Here's the line-up:
Anyone notice the flare up east of GA/Fl...it was there yesterday and has come back, drifting north
Then there is our almost depression, which I think may become a major hurricane in the Gulf (already has 31kt plus winds in the NE semicircle...may skip td??)...the stronger it gets, the better TLH's reasoning will pan out.
Then...system east of the Lesser Antilles, giving it a go
and...has anyone looked off Africa right now!! (and just behind and to the NE,also).
The one anomaly is the 1033 mb high...a bit unseasonally strong, if we see that in August, then forget much development east of the islands...but, it'll weaken and shift a little by then, most likely.
Anyway..who'd a thunk July 4, 2005 aould look like THIS in the tropics!! Looks like we WILL have some atmospheric fireworks this 4th.
Here we go....
MM
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: errata
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Hey Rabbit...don't you need to fix yourumbers for August???You have TS written twice I believe....it's been that way for awhile, do I misunderstand??
About to get blasted here, will be 3rd time it has rained today...winds to 50 mph and hail expected....later!
MM
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 08:06 PM |
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Active
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Just an interesting bit from the MLB discussion here
"EXTENT THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS WILL BE DOUBLY IMPORTANT
SINCE THE TWAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD BE
APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF FLORIDA LATE IN THE WEEK. WHILE FLOW
WILL BE BACKING TO SE...THE EXTENT OF INCREASE IN WINDS/MOISTURE
SEEN IN THE GFS (AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECM) IS IN LARGE PART
DUE TO THEIR SOLNS SHOWING A T.C. PASSING (JUST) SOUTH OF THE STATE.
BEING IN THE D5+ TIME FRAME...IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DO ANYTHING
OTHER THAN MAKE MENTION OF THIS...AS GUIDANCE WILL NO DOUBT SHOW
CHGS FROM RUN TO RUN. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH SCENARIO EVOLVE."
| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 08:31 PM |
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!!
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430
WONT41 KNHC 032018
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN JUL 3 2005
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE...AND
ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED AT 4 PM CDT...OR 2100Z. SINCE THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE
IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.
FORECASTER STEWART/PASCH
and it looks like the system east of the islands is not far behind!
--Lou
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!!
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Just saw the first NHC track forecast for TD 3...shows a track into the central/upper TX coast in 3-4 days (and a mod TS landfall). The intensity forecast looks good, although there have been occasions where storms have deepened rapidly in the Gulf. But there's not much model support for rapid strengthening at this time. Folks living in the western and central gomex need to carefully watch this one.
More later, I'm short on time now.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 03 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!!
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I just got off the plane from TX an hour ago. Go figure:
(A reminder to all new site users - and some of the old ones - to post a link rather than an image if possible - it helps with download speed for the users who do not have high-speed access. It also helps with bandwidth on the site. It also allows Admins and Mods to post significant imagery and maps to provide insight to all of the site users. In this case, no image link was necessary because the very same image is also thumbnailed on the left of the screen. If the information is readily available - the link to the NHC is at the bottom left of the screen - it is not necessary to repeat it. Excerpts from products are fine if they help you to make a point or support a particular position. Thanks for your help on this. ED)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 04 2005 12:12 AM |
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Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!!
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Oh I am sorry... I never noticed that (current storms). Very nifty.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Jul 04 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: TROPICAL DEPRESSION #3 FORMS!!!!!!
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Is there any chance of the center reforming north?